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lol she is up 1 in must win 3-5 states for her firewall
get off very liberal sites you might find it
lol she is up 1 in must win 3-5 states for her firewall
NV ain't a coin flip. Latinos, many first time voters, going huge for Hillary, and Repugs lose probably a Senator and 2 Reps. Thank, Donny T!
Try english.
Cause and effect definitely *not* totally clear, but Clinton went from 81% in our forecast pre-Comey letter to 65% now.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?re...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Here's what happens if the national popular vote pulls within 2 points. Very shaky map for Clinton with *5* must-win states within 1 point
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwN0mVkWcAI0ChN.jpg
yep. damage is done.
How does Florida look good? Obama was up 250k after early voting and ended up winning the state by 70k, Hillary is up by a hair and probably not at all factoring in independents and whatever lead she may or may not have won't be enough
Because of the fact that not 2 days ago dems were down 3 percent?
It's over if the Latino vote turns out in full. Period
It is over if all white vote 25 million did not vote last time Obama won by 5 million
You realize Cubans aren't California be@ners right? She will need more than a hairs width advantage to win Florida, it's always been this way. You post like you have a small penis
I post like this is my main account, pussy.
Why dont you come out of hiding?
I know it's difficult for you. Hasn't been a good 24 hours for you.
Whatever baby boy, trump wins Florida you leave, trump loses Florida I reveal my main and quit both, deal?
Fuzzy, what physics is Silver's model built on? Silvers trend line and state by state adjustments are built on pure statistical correlations between those variables. That isn't what has driven those relationships. For instance, PA and OH are linked historically because of their similar demographic makeups. However, if this changes, then the correlation changes as well. You can't just say that they stay the same and still use them in your model. If the model were built upon the demographics as opposed to the historical relationship then it would be more robust to changes. Second of all, Climate Models are publilc. They're available for all to view and understand the underlying physics that go into them. Its a valid critique of someone touting how great their PRIVATE FOR PROFIT model is to point out that we don't know whats in it.
Your comparison to climate deniers is extremely superficial and lacks merit if you dig even a tiny bit into what my points were.
Your final point hits the nail on the head. But if Silver's model is based on simple statistical relationships of a changing environment then its increasingly less valid. Especially when the polls themselves are getting worse. Its still the best prediciton method, but Silver should understand these caveats better than most which is why his childish rant yesterday is ridiculous. His ego has gotten the better of him and I suspect that this election will see his model perform worse than either of the last two.
To be clear, I don't have a problem with Silver's methods. I don't think they are arbitrary and I think he has statistical reasoning for it. But I also think they're wrong in many instance; none more so than Nevada. This is because we have further information that shows that. Prediction markets who have factored this in show Clinton at about an 8.5:1 favorite while Silver essentially shows a 1:1 race in Nevada. He also rarely tallks about how poorly Latinos are being sampled by polls this year. And unlike the GOP unskewing talk of 2012, there is a lot of obvious evidence that this is the case.
Nothing is easy when you deal with people and their inclinations. The guy has done a good job in the past AND got lucky.
No point making a bet with Reck. He will just welch on it.
I only make bets with outstanding members.
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I'm pretty sure Philly is no danger of voting Trump.
Pre-emptive welsh. Impressive!
It's not about that, it's about Philly not providing enough votes to cushion Clinton against the rest of the state that's predominantly red.I'm pretty sure Philly is no danger of voting Trump.
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