2016 investing thread

[DMX7]

If I didn't make it very clear before, I would not recommend a 3x leveraged ETF like NUGT for investing long-term. It is very volatile so I day-trade with it - meaning try to buy low and turn around quickly and sell higher - that's why I qualified it as gambling (because nobody really knows what is low and what is high).

Yes, as long as you understand this then it makes sense. Exploiting the volatility of the market (especially stuff like this) is actually pretty fun. Have you had success with this NUGT? If so, about how much total gain?

[rmt]

Tough business CC.

The best advice anyone can receive is from people who have seen the good and the bad and admit mistakes.
This is a super tough game in the short term. Everyone should know this. My plan is not short term.

The very best advice I ever received was from a guy who saw 2007 and told me all in while the panic spread. He put out a plan that spread out investing over the entirety of the down slide well through the panic. And I went all in because I had the funds to so and was still relatively young. He told me to stay in and not buy that house with the proceeds. I did not listen. I could have bought 4 houses with retirement well under way and substantial.

Then he immediately went into a long conversation about his worst mistakes. And described how "we" could have been very wrong.

December could be very bad and you might claim you nailed it. But that would ring very hollow.

Suggestion to all. Listen to people who you know (not from a board) who have money and will admit mistakes. And so that means don't take any of the advice I just gave.

One should see a fiduciary (has to act in your benefit) financial advisor since each person is in a different situation/stage of life. Or one could read financial books/listen to radio (I like Rick Edelman and for general philosophy - The Millionaire Next Door). I remember that 2007 period when I'd just glance at mutual fund statements and toss in the garbage - trying not to get too depressed but it turned out okay as long as you don't sell (need the money). If you had a lot of cash, either stock market or housing would have great investments back then.

Yes, as long as you understand this then it makes sense. Exploiting the volatility of the market (especially stuff like this) is actually pretty fun. Have you had success with this NUGT? If so, about how much total gain?

Yes, I've had a lot of success with NUGT this year. In the doldrums of January, it was at $1.7 but I don't keep track of gain as it's split and reverse split since (I still have to multiply and divide to wrap my head around what the "price" is) and switched to cherry picking for tax gains/losses purposes - so it's all messed up. NUGT went up to the equivalent of about $17.90 this year so I rode it all the way up. It's fallen way down since then to the equivalent of $4 so I play the swings - just trying to pick up the equivalent of 50 cent swings - of course, one never wants to be in a stock on the way down but I'm "in tune" with it. And this is money I can afford to lose/that I play with - it's not money for food, mortgage or retirement.

The market has taken off with Trump's election because of general optimism for the economy from tax cuts, repatriation and reduction of business rules/regulations. Some have taken a hit like emerging market (China/currency manipulator), gold (interest rate hikes) - some are convinced that Yellen has deliberately kept interest rates artificially low. Financials/banks (from interest rate hikes) have taken off. Quite a difference to what a Hillary win/continuation of Obama would have brought.

[RandomGuy]

There are definitely certain sectors I'd say are in the middle of a bubble. I think commercial real estate, particularly retail and office buildings, has been puffed up by low rates for years now.

I would agree. Retail space per capita has all the hallmarks of a bubble, if the dimly-remembered article on NPR I heard a while back is accurate. I see waaay too much retail, even in a growing city like Austin, but that is just my anecdotal observation.

[TeyshaBlue]

I would agree. Retail space per capita has all the hallmarks of a bubble, if the dimly-remembered article on NPR I heard a while back is accurate. I see waaay too much retail, even in a growing city like Austin, but that is just my anecdotal observation.

Yeah...I had posted an article a while back predicting a commercial real estate meltdown. Its a little overdue now from what I can remember.

[InRareForm]

Starbucks stock will hit 80 mid 2017

[Nbadan]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve officials earlier this month believed it would be appropriate to raise a key interest rate “relatively soon,” with some arguing for a hike at the Fed’s next meeting in December in order to preserve the Fed’s credibility.

Minutes of the Nov. 1-2 meeting released Wednesday show that Fed officials were moving closer to hiking rates for the first time in nearly a year. Some officials argued that if the Fed did not raise rates at its December meeting, it ran the risk of harming the central bank’s credibility given the many signals it had sent about an impending hike.

Private economists who widely expect the Fed will boost its benchmark rate by a quarter-point at its Dec. 13-14 meeting said there was nothing in the minutes to change their forecast. “The Fed meeting minutes say that the case for a rate hike keeps on getting stronger and stronger,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. “A rate hike is coming in December.”

Rupkey and other analysts said the open question is how many further hikes will occur in 2017. Many analysts said they were still looking for just two hikes next year. But others said the Fed might make three hikes if President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in pushing a big tax cut package and infrastructure bill through Congress.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.salon.com/2016/11/23/fed-...december-hike/

[pgardn]

One should see a fiduciary (has to act in your benefit) financial advisor since each person is in a different situation/stage of life. Or one could read financial books/listen to radio (I like Rick Edelman and for general philosophy - The Millionaire Next Door). I remember that 2007 period when I'd just glance at mutual fund statements and toss in the garbage - trying not to get too depressed but it turned out okay as long as you don't sell (need the money). If you had a lot of cash, either stock market or housing would have great investments back then.





The market has taken off with Trump's election because of general optimism for the economy from tax cuts, repatriation and reduction of business rules/regulations. Some have taken a hit like emerging market (China/currency manipulator), gold (interest rate hikes) - some are convinced that Yellen has deliberately kept interest rates artificially low. Financials/banks (from interest rate hikes) have taken off. Quite a difference to what a Hillary win/continuation of Obama would have brought.

The bolded is very important. I am younger and don't need cash immediately ( baring medical catastrophe) The buy low sell high strategy does not take into account immediate needs. Some people sell out of necessity due to cir stances, there is no timing for them.


The market might have gone higher with Hillary, no one really knows. This is what makes this so tough. Human behavior is very difficult to predict.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah...I had posted an article a while back predicting a commercial real estate meltdown. Its a little overdue now from what I can remember.

Just to piggyback off of this, I have a lot of visibility into CRE prices because of my job, and cap rates are already moving higher on most commercial real estate sectors because of rate changes. I don't think a meltdown is coming or anything but imo there's going to be a noticeable price dip in the next 2-3 months.

[rmt]

Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

[CosmicCowboy]

Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

X2

[InRareForm]

http://www.marke ch.com/story/the...ket-2016-11-28

Interesting

[InRareForm]

Oil rallying

[InRareForm]

Oil rallying

[boutons_deux]

Six million borrowers are behind on car payments. Housing bubble redux?

Increasingly risky auto lending practices worry the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Still, some economists say we aren't in a crisis situation just yet.

the value of car-loan debt among subprime borrowers – or people with bad credit scores below 620 – last year surpassed a peak reached in 2005, a time known for a debt craze that led to the Great Recession of 2008.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2016/1201/Six-million-borrowers-are-behind-on-car-payments.-Housing-bubble-redux

(used) car dealers are unregulated sub-prime lenders.

[boutons_deux]

The OPEC Oil Deal Sells Fake News for Real Money

It's hard to blame Russia for using its propaganda machine to help build a post-fact world when its economy depends on a post-fact market -- the oil one. The market's reaction to news from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries highlights its spurious mechanics.

Bloomberg News reported recently that Russia as a country made $6 billion just by talking to OPEC about cutting its oil output: News about the negotiations drove up the price. Now,

Russia has agreed to a cut by 300,000 barrels per day by January "if technically possible."

It looks like a lot -- a quarter of the total cut OPEC members have agreed among themselves -- but then

Russia's output increased by 520,000 barrels a day between the end of August and the end of October, reaching an absolute record level.

Russia has been making money on the increasing price while growing production -- the best of both worlds thanks to some deft news manipulation and nothing else.

Now, even if Russia cuts output by about 2.7 percent of the current level, as it has promised, it will still reap a profit if the price of crude holds at the current level -- about 7 percent higher on Thursday morning than three days before.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...for-real-money

[DMX7]

So has the "Trump Rally" lost steam already? I guess we'll have to wait till he's inaugurated to break 20K.

[CosmicCowboy]

Six million borrowers are behind on car payments. Housing bubble redux?

Increasingly risky auto lending practices worry the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Still, some economists say we aren't in a crisis situation just yet.

the value of car-loan debt among subprime borrowers – or people with bad credit scores below 620 – last year surpassed a peak reached in 2005, a time known for a debt craze that led to the Great Recession of 2008.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2016/1201/Six-million-borrowers-are-behind-on-car-payments.-Housing-bubble-redux

(used) car dealers are unregulated sub-prime lenders.

blaming used car dealers.

New car stores are the worst offenders. They put people in cars they can't afford all the time through their own finance companies. It's their latest gimmick to push car sales.

[DMX7]

blaming used car dealers.

New car stores are the worst offenders. They put people in cars they can't afford all the time through their own finance companies. It's their latest gimmick to push car sales.

Most new car dealers are not nearly as egregious as some of the smaller used car dealers.

[boutons_deux]

blaming used car dealers.

New car stores are the worst offenders. They put people in cars they can't afford all the time through their own finance companies. It's their latest gimmick to push car sales.

how does the cash flow work? used car dealers buy used cars for cash?, but have enough capital to sell them on credit?

or do they borrow money to buy used cars?

[CosmicCowboy]

how does the cash flow work? used car dealers buy used cars for cash?, but have enough capital to sell them on credit?

or do they borrow money to buy used cars?

Typically the small ones will pay cash for a car and sell it on a note and then sell the note at a discount to recover their cash and profit.

I'm not saying people with ty credit don't overpay for used cars. I'm saying it's not just used car dealers.

[pgardn]

This is the argument:

saving people from their own stupidity (right) v. some very underhanded ways of making money (left)

Which way do you lean...

[CosmicCowboy]

This is the argument:

saving people from their own stupidity (right) v. some very underhanded ways of making money (left)

Which way do you lean...

Saving people from their own stupidity is impossible.

People with lousy credit pay a higher interest rate because they have a proven history of slow payment or even non-payment.

Government cracking down on high interest lenders of last resort accomplishes only one thing...it reduces or eliminates the availability of loans to people with bad credit.

Now self righteous liberals can claim that's a good thing because it keeps people from taking on debt they shouldn't take on...but tell that to the person that has to have a vehicle to get to work and the transmission on their car craters and they don't have the cash sitting around to fix it.

Is your self righteous indignation demanding legislation against high interest loans worth that person losing their job because they can't get to work?

[CosmicCowboy]

On a different note, all the hoopla over DOW 20,000 is a ing joke. The DOW is a TERRIBLE indicator.