Hurricane Irma

[RandomGuy]

Well unfortunately Darrin is able to post across several threads

Ouch.

[RandomGuy]

At least we have early warning. The Galveston hurricane of 1900 killed thousands.

Vox’s Dave Roberts explained it best in a piece about Hurricane Harvey:
Say I turned up Earth’s gravity by 1 percent. More people around the world would trip and fall. Does it make sense to say, of a particular person tripping and falling, that the increase in gravity (“gravity change”) caused it to happen? No. Does it make sense to say that gravity cause it to happen? No. …
Increased gravity is a causal condition in every fall, but it is not the primary causal agent in any one fall. Similarly, increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm.

Best way to put it.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...na-meteorology

Thanks man. That was a really good article, on point.

[hater]

Wtf is it true Irmas eye ihas doubled its size today??

Its like a worm opening its mouth before swallowing some food

[DarrinS]

Thanks man. That was a really good article, on point.

Indeed

There are currently three hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf. Is that normal?
Within the past two days, two other storms — Katia and Jose — have achieved hurricane status in the Atlantic and Gulf. And what are we to make of the fact that three hurricanes are currently active at the same time?

This also isn’t unprecedented. It happens on average once every 10 years, Klotzbach explains. “In the satellite era, since 1966, this has happened in: 1967, 1980, 1995, 1998, 2010 and now in 2017.” So it’s fairly common, especially near the peak of the season, like we are in now.


Is climate change to blame for Irma’s strength?
This is always a tricky question when it comes to hurricanes. These storms are powerful, but they’re not necessarily much more powerful than storms we’ve seen in the past. Also, meteorologists have only been tracking hurricanes by satellite since the 1970s. Hurricanes have ravaged the Atlantic coast for hundreds of thousands of years. Scientists are still figuring out what, exactly, is “normal.”

[RandomGuy]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/gabrielsanc...xbg#.jpZRwMvGp

Googley boogely.

Florida is going to get clobbered. We may be looking at a trillion dollar disaster year. $200bn for Harvey easy. Gov says 180bn, but these estimates always come out low.

Figure this is going to be a lot larger.

Insurance industry is pretty well capitalized, so this is what is called an "earnings event" that will dig into yearly earnings, but not completely overwhelm the system, and require companies to dig into capital reserves.

If that were to happen, expect markets to take some solid hits as hundreds of billions of dollars of investments would need to be sold off to raise cash for claims. If we get any other hits this year, that may still happen.

[RandomGuy]

[boutons_deux]

"increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm."

let's see,

what if ocean temps were at their historical average or below (earth should be in a cooling period now), a storm might, even probably would, fail to grow into a tropical storm or hurricane, at all? aborted due to lack of water heat.

now what if ocean temps, energy were well above historical avg? then historically uneventful storms would have much more energy available for growing into a hurricane.

[RandomGuy]

"increased heat energy is a causal condition in every storm (not just the bad ones) — every storm forms and travels in the same global climate — but it is not the primary causal agent in any storm."

let's see,

what if ocean temps were at their historical average or below (earth should be in a cooling period now), a storm might, even probably would, fail to grow into a tropical storm or hurricane, at all? aborted due to lack of water heat.

now what if ocean temps, energy were well above historical avg? then historically uneventful storms would have much more energy available for growing into a hurricane.

The amount of heat energy getting soaked into the oceans is mind boggling. The number of zeros involved makes my head spin.

[boutons_deux]

The amount of heat energy getting soaked into the oceans is mind boggling. The number of zeros involved makes my head spin.

exactly, so when the mass of the ocean is only 1C or 2C above average, it's gigajoules of energy.

"Quan ative experiments show that 4.18 Joules of heat energy are required to raise the temperature of 1g of water by 1°C."

https://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/hurricanes/8a.html

What propagandists for BigCarbon refuse to admit is that the earth's operations are delicately balanced.

whatever, we frogs are boiled, IT'S OVA.

[CosmicCowboy]

Look like Tampa's luck has finally run out. Combination of wind and storm surge in the bay is going to be a .

[pgardn]

The amount of heat energy getting soaked into the oceans is mind boggling. The number of zeros involved makes my head spin.

Use scientific notation or change the energy units to Tera mega Tera Joules.

And... it still won't help.
How big a room will 10 million pennies fill? I can do the math but can't even make a good guess off the top of my head

[pgardn]

exactly, so when the mass of the ocean is only 1C or 2C above average, it's gigajoules of energy.

"Quan ative experiments show that 4.18 Joules of heat energy are required to raise the temperature of 1g of water by 1°C."

https://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/hurricanes/8a.html

What whoe propagandists for BigCarbon refuse to admit is that the earth's operations are delicately balanced.

whatever, we frogs are boiled, IT'S OVA.

So how much energy does it take to raise 1 g of ice 1 degree?

[Drachen]

Look like Tampa's luck has finally run out. Combination of wind and storm surge in the bay is going to be a .

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

[CosmicCowboy]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

Damn that sucks. This didnt lose the eyewall bouncing off cuba and the track has shifted west.could ramp back up to a cat 5 as it slides up the coast with a massive storm surge.

[SnakeBoy]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

They just issued a mandatory evacuation. How are people supposed to get out?

Hope they get to one of the shelters

[baseline bum]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

Well that was a colossal mistake. Though I think the media does their viewers a major disservice when they draw that line and say this is where the hurricane is going instead of just showing the cone indicating where the eye is likely to be. AFAIK west coast Florida has been in that cone for days now and it's only this morning the the models have converged enough to really slim that cone down to only the west half of the state when considering the lower part of Florida.

[baseline bum]

Storm surge hitting the keys now

[rmt]

I have family who live in Sarasota who decided to stay because it was supposed to be well East of them. Now it's too late to leave. No gas and parking lot highways.

Part of the problem is that people from South Florida have fled north - making the traffic worse. 2 families I know fled to Orlando - 1 to Gainesville. My advice for gas is to try somewhere like Costco - they keep the tankers coming - not like the local gas station that orders only 1 tanker a day and runs out. Leave the coast and find a shelter - there's no point in trying to outrun a hurricane that you don't know where it'll hit and risk getting stranded. Iirc, the outer walls of houses up north don't have to be concrete block - like they are down here in South Florida.

[Will Hunting]

The keys are absolutely ed. That women in that video still there with her pets is a re .

[baseline bum]

The keys are absolutely ed. That women in that video still there with her pets is a re .

Yeah you gotta be a special brand of stupid to stick around in the Keys when even Jeff Piotrowski won't go there.

[baseline bum]

[Will Hunting]

The not everyone has a car maybe applies for people in inner city Miami but if you can't afford a car then don't live in the ing keys.

[pgardn]

The not everyone has a car applies for people in inner city Miami but if you can't afford a car then don't live in the ing keys.

This same idea goes for many things about living in these areas. If you build and live in these places, be an ant. The mound will get destroyed and you will have to rebuild. If you can't handle this, go inland. This is why the bait stands on the Texas coast have really good piling structure but an easy to build, easy to fix upper structure. These people know their business is subject to all kinds of weather. So they build cheaply and repair and rebuild cheaply.

[DMC]

Wtf is it true Irmas eye ihas doubled its size today??

Its like a worm opening its mouth before swallowing some food

Basically anything entering Miami Dade county is getting it's hole widened considerably.