***** Official 2018 Election Night Thread *****

[baseline bum]

Rohrbacher also got his genitals.

Glad to see Harley prevail. I'm really disappointed to see Ojeda and McGrath lose though.

[Will Hunting]

The GOP will have 54 senate seats assuming the most likely remaining scenario that Tester wins Montana, Scott wins the recount in Florida, and McSally takes Arizona. Let's look at 2020: the Democrats will almost certainly lose Doug Jones' seat in 2020. So that puts them at -8. They'll probably be able to pick up Gardner's seat in Colorado, so they're -6. The only other two flips that really look possible are Ernst in Iowa and Tillis in North Carolina. So let's go best case and assume they get both. Now they're -2. So these losses last night were absolutely devastating, especially Florida and Indiana which were polling well for Democrats.

Even if the Democrats win the presidency in 2020 the GOP will control the senate and thus will block any supreme court nominations. And the Democrats winning the 2020 presidency looks really shaky right now. Last night's election should scare the out of Democrat voters. Even in an election with high enthusiasm Trump was able to turn his base out in enough numbers to again outperform the polls pretty strongly. Nelson, Donnelly, Sinema, McCaskill were all favorites yesterday morning and they're all losers this morning. Trump is going to be really hard to beat in 2020, especially if the Democrats nominate someone like Booker, Harris, Newsom, Klobuchar, or Warren that won't excite the base. I think it's Beto or Bernie or bust in 2020 because Beto and Bernie are the only people who can get young people excited and to the polls like Obama did.

Pretty much this. Democrats should be ting their pants about the fact that Trump has been able to both turn out the rural vote and make it even more red than it already was. The strategy of hoping the Latino vote counter balances the rural vote simply isn’t working.

IMO they need to maintain a progressive platform on things healthcare, taxes, etc but also need to move their stance on immigration to the right. They shouldn’t support stuff like separating families at the border, but there needs to be a general acknowledgement that open borders hurt the white working class family.

There also just needs to be less talk from the left about how great a “diverse America” is. It doesn’t do anything to inspire the young, Latino or black vote, all it does is give the right ammunition to rile its base up.

[florige]

The GOP will have 54 senate seats assuming the most likely remaining scenario that Tester wins Montana, Scott wins the recount in Florida, and McSally takes Arizona. Let's look at 2020: the Democrats will almost certainly lose Doug Jones' seat in 2020. So that puts them at -8. They'll probably be able to pick up Gardner's seat in Colorado, so they're -6. The only other two flips that really look possible are Ernst in Iowa and Tillis in North Carolina. So let's go best case and assume they get both. Now they're -2. So these losses last night were absolutely devastating, especially Florida and Indiana which were polling well for Democrats.

Even if the Democrats win the presidency in 2020 the GOP will control the senate and thus will block any supreme court nominations. And the Democrats winning the 2020 presidency looks really shaky right now. Last night's election should scare the out of Democrat voters. Even in an election with high enthusiasm Trump was able to turn his base out in enough numbers to again outperform the polls pretty strongly. Nelson, Donnelly, Sinema, McCaskill were all favorites yesterday morning and they're all losers this morning. Trump is going to be really hard to beat in 2020, especially if the Democrats nominate someone like Booker, Harris, Newsom, Klobuchar, or Warren that won't excite the base. I think it's Beto or Bernie or bust in 2020 because Beto and Bernie are the only people who can get young people excited and to the polls like Obama did.

If the Dem's are smart they will run Bernie. I think he will be a sure fire to beat Trump. Anyone else out of the people you mentioned I think unfortunately Trump will handle handily. I don't know enough about Beto yet.

[Warlord23]

Both sides played to their strengths - which illustrates the polarization in American politics. The Dems ran up the vote count in urban and suburban areas while the Reps turned out the exurban and rural vote - Trump still holds sway over the white working class.

Vote-share wise, the Dems had a good night. +9% swing in House vote share, and they also picked up 57% of Senate votes. However, the gerrymandering in the House protected the Reps somewhat. As for the Senate, the Reps will be always be at an advantage: California has as many people as the 22 smallest states, but they get the same allocation of 2 Senators as the smaller ones, many of which lean Republican.

Dems had a strong showing in Governor races, flipping 7 states from R to D. Also they can take heart that their policies are polling better than their party. Red states like Idaho, Nebraska and Utah supported Medicaid expansion despite the GOP being opposed to it. FL chose to restore ex-felons' voting rights that will give the vote back to 1M+ people.

The last couple of elections have shown the new normal for US politics:
- Dems will always have higher vote shares than seat shares
- Reps will always have an advantage in the Senate
- Reps will control more state governments, but Dems will control the richest ones
- While people remain bitterly divided on party affiliation, they are generally trending in the same direction when it comes to issues like marijuana legalization, individual rights, a more inclusive healthcare system etc.

[Spurminator]

I like Beto better as a VP candidate for now.

[florige]

Pretty much this. Democrats should be ting their pants about the fact that Trump has been able to both turn out the rural vote and make it even more red than it already was. The strategy of hoping the Latino vote counter balances the rural vote simply isn’t working.

IMO they need to maintain a progressive platform on things healthcare, taxes, etc but also need to move their stance on immigration to the right. They shouldn’t support stuff like separating families at the border, but there needs to be a general acknowledgement that open borders hurt the white working class family.

There also just needs to be less talk from the left about how great a “diverse America” is. It doesn’t do anything to inspire the young, Latino or black vote, all it does is give the right ammunition to rile its base up.

Overall I don't think the Dem's did necessarily bad. I just think they overestimated how well they would actually do. Here in MD for example we have a in bent Republican Governor who pretty much never endorsed Trump (for obvious reasons) and during his first term tip- toed the in the middle. We'll see how he really governs now. The other thing about that race here is that his real main challenger suddenly died in May. The Dem's scrambled to get their base rallied behind a guy that no one really never heard off who also had no money. Had the other guy not died MD probably would had flipped back to Blue as well.

[baseline bum]

I like Beto better as a VP candidate for now.

Beto actually turned out the youth vote and got within 2.6 points of a senator Texas conservatives love. I don't see how he can't be considered the strongest possible candidate for the Democrats for 2020 at this point in time.

[AaronY]

Beto actually turned out the youth vote and got within 2.6 points of a senator Texas conservatives love. I don't see how he can't be considered the strongest possible candidate for the Democrats for 2020 at this point in time.

Cruz being awful had so much to do this. even ducks s on Cruz

[StinkyWeezleteats]

Cruz being awful had so much to do this. even ducks s on Cruz

Yet, like most Repugs, probably still voted for him

[baseline bum]

Cruz being awful had so much to do this. even ducks s on Cruz

Cruz isn't awful to Texas conservatives. Dude beat Trump by 17 points in the primary here. He is loved by Texas conservatives and is considered by many of them to be the one true conservative in Washington. If Beto was running against Cornyn instead that seat would have gone blue.

[Will Hunting]

I don’t like the odds of a guy who’s never been a governor or senator as the Democratic nominee.

The presidential election really shouldn’t be that hard for the Democrats. States like Colorado and Virginia are now solid blue and Wisconsin/Michigan/PA flipping had just as much to do with Hillary being ty as it did Trump. The bigger problem is the fact they have no path to ever holding the senate (and thereby the Supreme Court) ever again, their voters only show up for midterms when the other party is in office, and they’re always at risk if gerrymandering because Republicans control the local government in so many key states.

[baseline bum]

I don’t like the odds of a guy who’s never been a governor or senator as the Democratic nominee.

The presidential election really shouldn’t be that hard for the Democrats. States like Colorado and Virginia are now solid blue and Wisconsin/Michigan/PA flipping had just as much to do with Hillary being ty as it did Trump. The bigger problem is the fact they have no path to ever holding the senate (and thereby the Supreme Court) ever again, their voters only show up for midterms when the other party is in office, and they’re always at risk if gerrymandering because Republicans control the local government in so many key states.

Who do you like the odds of then as the Democratic nominee?

[spurraider21]

tester held on

[AaronY]

Progessives had a pretty bad showing yesterday honestly I don't know why you guys are jerking off to them. I mean I'm biased because I hate their over the top policies (like $10 minimum wage would be a several thousand dollar a year raise for these completely unskilled workers but thats even enough lol) and free college, UBI i mean dont even get me started on that one come the on unemployment is 3 ing %

but the 9 most progressive dems went 0 for 9

And Gillum actually ran behind Nelson in Florida

New ideas and new blood are good but if the new ideas are ty im sorry but no

[Will Hunting]

Who do you like the odds of then as the Democratic nominee?

No idea, you might be right that Beto is the best choice because of how ty the other candidates are. I agree with the general idea that Trump will be beat someone like Booker.

[Reck]

Cruz isn't awful to Texas conservatives. Dude beat Trump by 17 points in the primary here. He is loved by Texas conservatives and is considered by many of them to be the one true conservative in Washington. If Beto was running against Cornyn instead that seat would have gone blue.

They love Trump way more now though. On a fantasy head to head match up Trump would probably win against Cruz in a Texas primary by probably 30 points.

I highly dislike Bernie but he seems to be the only viable candidate that can take it to Trump. Another one to me would be Biden.

I think he'll run. Last night proved that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are solidly back to blue support now that y Hillary is not on the ballot.

Bernie worries me in terms of getting the black vote out. He really lost the primary to Hillary on the southern states alone.

[Will Hunting]

Progessives had a pretty bad showing yesterday honestly I don't know why you guys are jerking off to them. I mean I'm biased because I hate their over the top policies (like $10 minimum wage would be a several thousand dollar a year raise for these completely unskilled workers but thats even enough lol) and free college, UBI i mean dont even get me started on that one come the on unemployment is 3 ing %

but the 9 most progressive dems went 0 for 9

And Gillum actually ran behind Nelson in Florida

New ideas and new blood are good but if the new ideas are ty im sorry but no

You’re cherry picking races that were either toss ups or where they were the underdog.

Its not about how good or bad the ideas are as much as it’s about the fact that the only way the Dems can win elections now is by a strong turnout from young, black and Hispanic voters. The Corey Bookers of the world don’t bring those voters out while the progressives do.

[AaronY]

You’re cherry picking races that were either toss ups or where they were the underdog.

Its not about how good or bad the ideas are as much as it’s about the fact that the only way the Dems can win elections now is by a strong turnout from young, black and Hispanic voters. The Corey Bookers of the world don’t bring those voters out while the progressives do.

I didnt cherry pick anything. Those guys identified the 9 most progressive people before the election and thats how they did. Maybe progressivism is best bet for winning elections but i hope not. The far left progressives also energize the white trash people tho to vote against them tbh. I would literally vote against Bernie if like a normal republican ran against him like Romney or at least vote for a divided government

[Will Hunting]

I didnt cherry pick anything. Those guys identified the 9 most progressive people before the election and thats how they did. Maybe progressivism is best bet for winning elections but i hope not. The far left progressives also energize the white trash people tho to vote against them tbh. I would literally vote against Bernie if like a normal republican ran against him like Romney or at least vote for a divided government

Bernie Sanders was up for re-election and won last night. If they were really picking the 9 most progressive candidates then why wasn’t he included?

[spurraider21]

Bernie Sanders was up for re-election and won last night. If they were really picking the 9 most progressive candidates then why wasn’t he included?

technically not a Dem candidate?

prob somethin like that

[AaronY]

Bernie Sanders was up for re-election and won last night. If they were really picking the 9 most progressive candidates then why wasn’t he included?

Bernie is in the Peoples Republic of Vermont. I mean cmon.

[Will Hunting]

I also don’t agree that the far left energizes the white trash folks. Hillary was anything but far left and the white trash came out in droves to support her. Just look at the white trash crowd on this site, some of them even went from supporting Bernie to supporting Trump

[Will Hunting]

Bernie is in the Peoples Republic of Vermont. I mean cmon.

So you agree they cherry picked which races would be featured on their list and left out the more favorable ones. Glad we could clear that up.

[AaronY]

I also don’t agree that the far left energizes the white trash folks. Hillary was anything but far left and the white trash came out in droves to support her. Just look at the white trash crowd on this site, some of them even went from supporting Bernie to supporting Trump

lmao nathan hehehe. Turnout was astronomical here in FL and Gillum still lost. maybe it was because he was a darkie but I think a lot of the rurals came out to go against him. Oh wait republicans freed the slaves, robertbyrdkkk.jpeg, they are the non racist party etc. my bad.

[AaronY]

I want Mic e Obama to run and have some moderate policies but she'd have to promise a lot of far left stuff to get through the primaries probably. Still seeing Trump lose to an Obama would be phenomenal.