Chasing The Playoffs v2 - 2019 Magic Numbers

[monty4329]

For my SWMBO, cookbooks and quilt blocks.

I like her budget then....

[Dex]

The Spurs continue to flex their muscles at home. With another impressive win over Portland, they are now running on their longest win streak in two seasons.

That run, however, faces a serious test on Monday when the Warriors come into town. Durant will still probably sidelined with his ankle injury...meaning Golden State will have to settle for rolling out only four All-Star caliber players. San Antonio still has a chip on its shoulder against the Warriors, so lets hope the AT&T Center comes loud and rowdy.

Either way, this weekend has been very positive for the Spurs playoff hopes, and the charts reflect that. The Pelicans, Mavericks, and Grizzlies are now officially out of the Magic Number race, and the boys in Black & Silver have gained serious ground on the Kings. It would pretty much take an absolute collapse to not make the playoffs at this point, so the focus should really be on positioning.

Looks like SPAM is back on the menu, boys and girls.

[YGWHI]

OC has the toughest remaining schedule of any top 8 team in the West at 2.23 (though one of their tough games is the season finale @MIL, and the Bucks should have the overall #1 seed locked up by then)

OKC last two games against Rockets and Bucks.

We know coach Bud will rest his guys in that game esp after Brogdon injury but I wonder if D'Antoni will overplay his starters again..Tonight Harden has a cervical strain and still playing vs Wolves.

[YGWHI]

Unfortunately for Blazers CJ injury could drop them to #5/6...There is still chance to get #4, Spurs!

[monty4329]

It should have just been a short little update. I started typing to just mentioned how SA probably has the tie-break against the Blazers locked up, but I kept adding teams. Then I got to Utah and realized how big of a CF those tie-breaks are. Then I just decided to cover the entire conference.

Looking at the remaining schedule, I am afraid you'll might want to have a look at what happens in a 4-teams tie at 49....

[MannyIsGod]

The Nuggets getting the 1 seed and the Spurs getting a 4 seed is the dream scenario where the Spurs end up with a decent shot at the WCF.

[ZeusWillJudge]

The Nuggets getting the 1 seed and the Spurs getting a 4 seed is the dream scenario where the Spurs end up with a decent shot at the WCF.

I wouldn't have believed it 9 games ago, but it's a real possibility. This team is really playing together well. We were looking at the upcoming 10 game stretch wondering if they could go 5-5.

[BillMc]

The Nuggets getting the 1 seed and the Spurs getting a 4 seed is the dream scenario where the Spurs end up with a decent shot at the WCF.

Yeah, that's what I'm really hoping for. Homecourt round 1 and avoid Warriors to WCF

[phxspurfan]

West standings:



A conservative look at the Spurs' remaining schedule, where they lose against GSW, @HOU, @BOS, @DEN, closes their season with a 9-4 record from their remaining games. They would have a 49-33 record, and a solid shot at the 5th seed, if OKC were to falter on their 4th-hardest-in-the-NBA schedule remaining (link). But they would also be fighting off the Jazz, who sport the league's easiest schedule for the remaining month.

Sat 3/16 - vs. POR (Spurs on home/home B2B, POR on away/away B2B) - W (toss-up)
Mon 3/18 - vs. GSW - L
Wed 3/20 - vs. MIA - W
Fri 3/22 - @ HOU - L
Sun 3/24 - @ BOS (BOS on away/home B2B) - L
Tue 3/26 - @ CHA - W
Thu 3/28 - vs. CLE (Manu jersey retirement ceremony) - W
Sun 3/31 - vs. SAC (Kings on away/away B2B) - W
Tue 4/2 - vs. ATL - W
Wed 4/3 - @ DEN (Spurs on home-away B2B, DEN on away/home B2B) - L (may be a toss-up as DEN will have just played GSW, and if GSW rested, DEN wins easily. If GSW didn't rest, DEN will be tired)
Fri 3/5 - @ WAS - W
Sun 4/7 - @ CLE - W
Wed 4/10 - vs. DAL (DAL on home/away B2B) - W

With these Ws over the Warriors and Blazers, even with a conservative projection with the remaining games, the Spurs could reach 50 wins, at 50-32. They would have to go 8-3 the rest of the way, assuming losses @HOU, @BOS, @DEN and winning the games they should win.

Wed 3/20 - vs. MIA - W
Fri 3/22 - @ HOU - L
Sun 3/24 - @ BOS (BOS on away/home B2B) - L
Tue 3/26 - @ CHA - W
Thu 3/28 - vs. CLE (Manu jersey retirement ceremony) - W
Sun 3/31 - vs. SAC (Kings on away/away B2B) - W
Tue 4/2 - vs. ATL - W
Wed 4/3 - @ DEN (Spurs on home-away B2B, DEN on away/home B2B) - L (may be a toss-up as DEN will have just played GSW, and if GSW rested, DEN wins easily. If GSW didn't rest, DEN will be tired)
Fri 3/5 - @ WAS - W
Sun 4/7 - @ CLE - W
Wed 4/10 - vs. DAL (DAL on home/away B2B) - W

[YGWHI]

A perfect night. OKC lost. Spurs beat Warriors. Denver won. Just a Blazers loss vs Pacers would make this even better...

[monty4329]

If we go 1-2 on the three games trip we have a strong chance for 5th.

4th place is out of the question, Utah will most probably finish above the Spurs

[Dex]

The Spurs continued to roll on Monday with a big win over the vaunted Warriors. Golden State was without two key contributors in Boogie and Iggy, but Kevin Durant did return from injury to try to spoil San Antonio's party. Any way you shape it, this was a very solid win for the Spurs.

Derrick White was supremely effective at harassing Klay Thompson, who finished with only 14 points (most of which came on a late flurry of threes when the Warriors were trying to mount one final comeback effort). The unlikely defensive duo of Forbes and DeRozan made Curry work hard for 25 points on 25 shots. Everyone else chipped in where they needed to, and the Spurs walked away with a ninth straight victory which secured another season series and now has the Western Conference standings looking very interesting.

The Thunder's loss now has San Antonio leading a tie for 5th place. The Nuggets' win has them tied for 1st place with Golden State. Only 3.5 games separate the 3rd seed from the 8th seed. As you can imagine, there will be a lot of jockeying over the next three weeks as teams try to position themselves for the playoffs and stay out of the Warriors' crosshairs.



Upcoming games this week:

March 20th - MIA @ SAS - The Spurs will close their homestand against Miami on Wesnesday night. The Heat are currently scrapping to hold onto 8th place in the East, and are fresh off an impressive victory against a Thunder team that was without Russell Westbrook since he can't seem to keep his mouth shut. It would be easy to overlook this game with two big road matchups looming - and that would be a big mistake.

March 22nd - SAS @ HOU - San Antonio will head up I-10 to take on the surging Rockets. As much as I dislike Houston (mostly due to Harden and Paul's antics), one has to be impressed with the way they withstood injuries to CP3 and Capella and still managed to rise in the rankings. Like the Spurs, they are 9-1 in their last ten and don't seem to show any signs of slowing down. Still, a victory here would pull them deeper into the scrum in the middle of the standings, so lets hope Pop can continue to dial up D'Antoni's number.

March 24th - SAS @ BOS - The Spurs will then park their cars in Harvard Yard to take on the enigmatic Celtics. At the start of the season, everyone seemed to have the East pegged to go through Boston, but the Celt's have spent most of the year getting in their own way. They certainly boast one of the most talented rosters in the NBA, but the team has not been able to gel as expected and recreate that magic that got them into the Eastern Conference Finals last season. Let's hope that we get to see the bad version of the Celtics and pull out another wicked W on the road.

[Kobe'sAchilles]

The good news is that we are guaranteed playoffs (realistically) for 22 years in a row

[Chinook]

The Houston game is huge. A win pretty much puts SA in the driver's seat for the tie-break with Houston, and winning the Southwest would give them the "zeroth" tie-break over every team but Denver and GS. Incidentally enough, they already own the tie-break over GS just in case they suffer a horrible collapse, and they have a legit chance to get it against Denver next month. They'd also get the three-way tie-break against GS and Denver with that win, making it possible for SA to still finish the season with the tie-breaks against every team in the conference.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Like I've been saying all year I don't believe in this team until this team beats decent teams on the road. this team is a completely different team when they're on the road. Granted they beat top teams on this winning streak Bucks, Blazers, Warriors, Thunder, Nuggets which is really impressive. But this team is a great while playing at home, 3rd best home record in the entire league.

On the nine game winning streak 7 of them have been at home and the two wins on the road were against the Hawks and the Mavericks. Last road game they won verse a playoff team against any conference was verse the Clippers on December 29!!! The Spurs have been playing better no doubt about that but I am still not a believer even with this winning streak. I've seen it way to many times this season where they string together a couple home games in a row just to go on the road and blow it.

We will see though Pau leaving has helped, Jakob inserted into the starting line up is also working and this team is healthy so we will see what will happen.

[Chinook]

Like I've been saying all year I don't believe in this team until this team beats decent teams on the road. this team is a completely different team when they're on the road. Granted they beat top teams on this winning streak Bucks, Blazers, Warriors, Thunder, Nuggets which is really impressive. But this team is a great while playing at home, 3rd best home record in the entire league.

On the nine game winning streak 7 of them have been at home and the two wins on the road were against the Hawks and the Mavericks. Last road game they won verse a playoff team against any conference was verse the Clippers on December 29!!! The Spurs have been playing better no doubt about that but I am still not a believer even with this winning streak. I've seen it way to many times this season where they string together a couple home games in a row just to go on the road and blow it.

We will see though Pau leaving has helped, Jakob inserted into the starting line up is also working and this team is healthy so we will see what will happen.

The average NBA away record this year is .403. The Spurs' record is .371. They're an average road team after years of being elite. Seeing as teams play almost half their games in the playoffs at home no matter what, the Spurs being a great home team will always be relevant. All it would take is stealing one road game, and the Spurs have beaten Indy in IN and almost/should have won their road games against MKE, TOR, DEN, PHL and OKC. Just one clever wrinkle could be enough to steal a game against one of the top teams, which would give the Spurs HCA with their incredible home performance. A team like Denver is just slightly above .500 on the road, and that's with their winning an absurd percentage of their close games. The Spurs don't have to be some great road team to take series against them, OKC and Portland.

[GusT15]

The average NBA away record this year is .403. The Spurs' record is .371. They're an average road team after years of being elite. Seeing as teams play almost half their games in the playoffs at home no matter what, the Spurs being a great home team will always be relevant. All it would take is stealing one road game, and the Spurs have beaten Indy in IN and almost/should have won their road games against MKE, TOR, DEN, PHL and OKC. Just one clever wrinkle could be enough to steal a game against one of the top teams, which would give the Spurs HCA with their incredible home performance. A team like Denver is just slightly above .500 on the road, and that's with their winning an absurd percentage of their close games. The Spurs don't have to be some great road team to take series against them, OKC and Portland.

We were also up by 1 in Houston with 2 minutes to go in the 4th and made terrible desicions on offense for two minutes straight and lost by 7.

[Dverde]

[sasaint]

Unfortunately for Blazers CJ injury could drop them to #5/6...There is still chance to get #4, Spurs!

That seems very unlikely to me. But I still say anything below 6 would be a disappointment at this point.

[Arcadian]

The world when the Lakers last had a losing record: Look around.

[rascal]

If we go 1-2 on the three games trip we have a strong chance for 5th.

4th place is out of the question, Utah will most probably finish above the Spurs

Spurs only have 3 hard games the rest of the way. They will stay ahead of Utah.

[emanueldavidginobili]

The average NBA away record this year is .403. The Spurs' record is .371. They're an average road team after years of being elite. Seeing as teams play almost half their games in the playoffs at home no matter what, the Spurs being a great home team will always be relevant. All it would take is stealing one road game, and the Spurs have beaten Indy in IN and almost/should have won their road games against MKE, TOR, DEN, PHL and OKC. Just one clever wrinkle could be enough to steal a game against one of the top teams, which would give the Spurs HCA with their incredible home performance. A team like Denver is just slightly above .500 on the road, and that's with their winning an absurd percentage of their close games. The Spurs don't have to be some great road team to take series against them, OKC and Portland.

I agree with you, but its the way they play on the road. The complete joke jobs and the terrible starts to the games. They play completely different it seems.

[TDomination]

The world when the Lakers last had a losing record: Look around.

HAHAHA LOVE IT

[Dex]

Oh, are we ting on the Lakers in here?

[Seventyniner]

Oh, are we ting on the Lakers in here?

There's no bad place for that!

I had no idea they were even worse than the Knicks over that span, god damn.