Chasing The Playoffs v2 - 2019 Magic Numbers

[Arcadian]

Trying to choose your seed/matchup is a fruitless endeavor. There are too many moving parts you can't possibly predict or control.

[SpurSpike]

The Mavs have every reason to want to lose their last few games. They gave up their 1st round pick (protected top 5) last year to move up to #3, they still have a shot to keep that top 5 pick this year if they can keep a worse record than the Grizzlies (tied), Pelicans (1 game up) and Wizards (1 game down). They literally get nothing if they win more this year and next year with a more experienced Doncic and adding Porzingis and a possible top 5 draft pick that 1st round pick the following year most likely wont be as valuable.

[TDomination]

The Mavs have every reason to want to lose their last few games. They gave up their 1st round pick (protected top 5) last year to move up to #3, they still have a shot to keep that top 5 pick this year if they can keep a worse record than the Grizzlies (tied), Pelicans (1 game up) and Wizards (1 game down). They literally get nothing if they win more this year and next year with a more experienced Doncic and adding Porzingis and a possible top 5 draft pick that 1st round pick the following year most likely wont be as valuable.

and yet they beat the grizzlies yesterday for some reason which now puts them with the same record.

[SpurSpike]

and yet they beat the grizzlies yesterday for some reason which now puts them with the same record.

Yeah, then again they could be looking at it like they are a lottery team either way and just win for Dirk and pray the ping pong ball is kind to them in the draft.

The differance is basically a 29% chance for a top 4 pick if they keep a losing record vs those teams or 14% for top 4 pick if they end up ahead of those teams. Add maybe 3% to each for top 5.

[Mugen]

Can't be serious. Portland has absolutely no one to guard Aldridge or DeRozan. White can at least slow down one of Lillard and McCollum. No way would I prefer Denver, even though I do think the Spurs have a good chance there too. Ideal scenario would be for OKC to beat GS and Houston why SA beats POR then DEN. Spurs against OKC with HCA would be a close series, though there's a good chance the Spurs would be playing 6-on-4 by then with DeMar going into playoff mode.

Disagree..the Pelicans' game plan against Portland in last year's playoffs is still perfect, Portland didn't do anything to address it other than adding Rodney Hood

Portland has just as many flawed players in their rotation as the Spurs..Enes Kanter shouldn't be starting, Zach Collins and Evan Turner are complete trash and they have their own version of Mills/Forbes in Seth Curry..

DeRozan could actually succeed against them since they have an atrocious defensive backcourt..

They're the only team that the Spurs would have a good shot against IMO..Nurkic getting hurt was a massive blow..

Completely forgot about Nurk being out for the year. Him being out obviously changes the equation and agree that i'd rather draw Portland than the Nuggs.

I just think the Spurs would get blown out in any first round series. I don't think Pop has the chops to outcoach anybody anymore plus the team is obviously deeply flawed.

[monty4329]

and yet they beat the grizzlies yesterday for some reason which now puts them with the same record.

Nobody really wants to lose. You play scrubs, they need to impress and find a contract. You play good players, they are too good. It is not that easy to just go out and lose...

[monty4329]

Completely forgot about Nurk being out for the year. Him being out obviously changes the equation and agree that i'd rather draw Portland than the Nuggs.

I just think the Spurs would get blown out in any first round series. I don't think Pop has the chops to outcoach anybody anymore plus the team is obviously deeply flawed.

Spurs have bigger problems guarding the frontcourt than the bigs. In a vacuum, Nurkic injury is a disaster for Portland, but not so much if they play SA. We have no way to stop both McCallum and Dame.
Same outcome against both DEN or POR. I don't understand all the negative hype towards the Nuggets, because "they have no playoffs experience"...yes they don't have it, they also have 53 wins and last time we tried them it was a massacre...

[benefactor]

Spurs will be fine.

[Dex]

From the eggheads on Reddit:



Spurs Probabilities:
6th seed: 65.7%
7th seed 28.1%
8th seed 6.2%

For the love of baby Jesus, let's just hope they win the game against Dallas and throw all this math out the window.

[GusT15]

From the eggheads on Reddit:



Spurs Probabilities:
6th seed: 65.7%
7th seed 28.1%
8th seed 6.2%

For the love of baby Jesus, let's just hope they win the game against Dallas and throw all this math out the window.

Beat the Mavs.GSG

[Mugen]

Ideally:

It's
1. GSW
2. Denver
3. Portland
4. Houston
5. Utah
6. Spurs
7. Thunder
8. Clipps

For that to happen, I think the following has to occur (though I'm really not sure, 's confusing):

-Spurs beat Mavs
-OKC beats Houston, loses @ MIL
-Portland wins out

[Arcadian]

Spurs Probabilities:
6th seed: 65.7%
7th seed 28.1%
8th seed 6.2%

Isn't it,

6/14 = 42.9%
5/14 = 35.7%
3/14 = 21.4%

?

[bluebellmaniac]

Isn't it,

6/14 = 42.9%
5/14 = 35.7%
3/14 = 21.4%

?

I don't think it's based on random occurance probably, but on the probability of the result of each game happening.

[Russ]

Trying to choose your seed/matchup is a fruitless endeavor. There are too many moving parts you can't possibly predict or control.

So just beat the Mavericks, right?

[Dex]

Isn't it,

6/14 = 42.9%
5/14 = 35.7%
3/14 = 21.4%

?

I don't think it's based on random occurance probably, but on the probability of the result of each game happening.

Should have given some more context on that one. Here is what those probabilities are based off of:

These probabilities are based on fivethirtyeight's odds along with some messy coding, just thought I'd share.

More info and credit to the poster here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBASpurs/co...probabilities/

[rascal]

All I care about is a higher draft pick. Spurs are not getting anywhere near a le.

[exstatic]

It looks like HOU@OKC will determine 6-7 and maybe 8th place, HOU will be probably able to choose its opponent for first round.
If Clips go 1-1 we may make 6th or 7h depending on HOU.
I suppose they will want to play LA in the first round so they might want to beat OKC and push them to 8th.
Provided we go 2-0.

If we win Wednesday, Houston cannot work the system to get the LAC. We would be either 6th or 7th, and LAC could not finish in 6th. They can do no better than tie us, and we own the tiebreaker. Only OKC can finish ahead, and only if they win both games. HOU will get either us, or OKC, assuming they hold on to 3rd. If they fall into a tie with POR, they drop to 4th

[exstatic]

Denver now has to go to Utah and then the Wolves in a b2b. The were they thinking?

I don’t think Utah can move up or down. They’re locked at 5.

[Mugen]

I don’t think Utah can move up or down. They’re locked at 5.

I think OKC owns the tie breaker with Utah. If they win out and Jazz lose out, Thunder go to 5th, Jazz to 6th.

[gambit1990]

would definitely prefer denver... pretty vanilla take though.

[monty4329]

If we win Wednesday, Houston cannot work the system to get the LAC. We would be either 6th or 7th, and LAC could not finish in 6th. They can do no better than tie us, and we own the tiebreaker. Only OKC can finish ahead, and only if they win both games. HOU will get either us, or OKC, assuming they hold on to 3rd. If they fall into a tie with POR, they drop to 4th

But HOU can also finish 2nd if DEN loses one -unlikely now that the Jazz have half team injured, but still possible.
And HOU will get into the 4th quarter of the game with OKC knowing the result of DEN@UTAH
Other than that (remote, sure), all true about the Clips.

It might not cover every single iteration, but basically everything depends on HOU@OKC outcome.

[monty4329]

I don’t think Utah can move up or down. They’re locked at 5.

They had HCA locked in, in theory, but they lost so many "easy" games lately.
Now they also have many injuries, they might be underdogs against POR in the first round.

[BillMc]

They had HCA locked in, in theory, but they lost so many "easy" games lately.
Now they also have many injuries, they might be underdogs against POR in the first round.

If Portland can take out Jazz, Dubs could have another cakewalk to the Finals. Over-achieving Clippers team first, then Portland without Nurkic, and in the WCF maybe Houston, by which time Harden will be exhausted and Paul inevitably injured

[TDMVPDPOY]

finishing 6 or 7 , i like the spurms chances of a premature ejaculation win against port or denver

[hater]

Regardless who we play we still lose the series handily unless the 2 top opposing players get killed

I say we probably lose to either Denver or Hou in 5