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LMAO no major black vote will come out for average joe
Joe runs demo and it's Trump 2.0 for sure
Let's not forget right now 1/3 of blacks support Trump
Serious question. His comment about Obama in 2007 was about as racist as it gets. He helped draft the crime bill. He was against desegregation. Despite all of this, he has the overwhelming support of black voters in the primary polling so far.
Black Democrats are stupid as it gets in voting against their own best interests.
LMAO no major black vote will come out for average joe
Joe runs demo and it's Trump 2.0 for sure
Let's not forget right now 1/3 of blacks support Trump
Can you provide some evidence? Most of the people I've spoken to are on the Warren train. A lot of AA's have been calling Biden out for his past policies.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.c574c78c2150
I think the people you're speaking to are younger black voters who are more progressive and informed, but they're only a small contingent of the black vote just because (no different than young white voters) they don't show up to the polls consistently. The middle aged/older black voters who voters the way his/her pastor recommends is much greater in numbers and shows up to the polls much more consistently.In these recent polls, Quinnipiac said Biden had 42 percent support among nonwhite Democrats. CNN put his nonwhite support at 50 percent. Biden’s closest compe or among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters of all races, Sanders, won 14 percent of the nonwhite vote in the CNN poll and 7 percent in Quinnipiac. Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) each earned less than 10 percent of the nonwhite vote in these polls. The Hill/HarrisX and Harvard-Harris both have Biden leading Sanders by over 30 points with African American voters.
Thanks.
Yea I'm in touch with the younger crowd. I think the older black voters just want the best odds at beating trump and Biden, according to the polls Biden is the strongest candidate, I disagree. It's like how all the white people banded together for Trump.
Last edited by Trill Clinton; 06-06-2019 at 12:52 PM.
I think you're giving them too much credit. Just like the older uneducated white Democrat voters, the older uneducated black voters are simply misinformed and subscribe the the horse belief that moderate = higher chance of winning because it's what MSNBC and CNN cram down everyone's throat.
I don't think Biden is as repulsive as Hillary just because he's got a more likable personality, so he might still beat Trump, but it would be in spite of ty turnout among young voters and minority voters if Biden is the candidate.
I expect young people will show up regardless. Now that they know that Trump can win, and what that means, they'll vote for Biden regardless of how exciting he is. I think they also understand they won't be voting for 1994 Biden with a 1994 Congress either.
Overall Trump is a moderate. So I disagree a moderate Democrat has lower probability.
In an increasingly diverse landscape, you kinda need to be a flip flopper. People can't keep up with every political promise and once they commit to a candidate they are likely to label countering evidence "fake news"
Last edited by FrostKing; 06-06-2019 at 01:05 PM.
Obama certainly benefited from, after 8 years of Repug Reign of Terror and Error, the "anybody but a Repug" sentiment, although Obama was for 10Ms attractive candidate on his own
After 4 years of Trash, Biden, even with his bad history and outdated politics, would certainly benefit from "anybody but more Trash" sentiment.
Last edited by boutons_deux; 06-06-2019 at 01:10 PM.
As I said in the other thread, it just sucks we don't have any empirical data on how a centrist corporate Democrat would fare in an election against Trump in order to address the argument about whether a moderate has a better or worse chance. It would be a lot easier to figure this out if we had any kind of insight or prior knowledge about how centrist Democrats do in elections vs. Trump.
No. Biden runs and Trump is a lock.
His own campaign has him in hiding as of right now for a reason
Niga wasn't even allowed to attend California DNC for christsakes
Trump would absolutely obliterate him. Just like I called Trump would do with ler in 20q6
Let's face it whoever wins the Dem nomination will have serious baggage, be it one of the wmen, the gay guy, or the two old white guys. It will come down to whether or not people actually hold their noses and vote for them. The republicans will always do that, the question is will the AA's and the college obama/trump voters do it. I do believe that the Dems need the black vote for NC and michigan though. I think the people that sat out the election made the difference in those states.
Trump's approval rating is in the low 40s right now while Bush's was in the low 30s leading up to the 2008 election, the two situations aren't comparable. The polls also still don't accurately account for rural voters having much higher rates of participation than urban/suburban voters, so his approval rating among people who will actually vote is probably closer to 45%.
At this point it's name recognition and familiarity. I just Google searched your question in the OP and damn near every article backs up what I said about them just wanting to vote for whoever beats trump. I have hope that Warren continues her surge and the old guard catches up. I think voter turnout in 2020 will be much better than last election.
He was Obama's right hand man for eight years. It's not rocket science.
Trump didn't "obliterate" Hillary. He narrowly won 3 states that she arrogantly thought she had in the bag but easily could have won. The only time in the last 20 years that one candidate "obliterated" the other in a general was Obama over McCain in 2008. Every other election since 1996 has been decided by swing states where the candidates were within a few percentage points of each other (even the 2012 election could have easily flipped if Republican turnout wasn't so ty), and unless the economy craters between now and 2020 the 2020 election is going to be another close election.No. Biden runs and Trump is a lock.
His own campaign has him in hiding as of right now for a reason
Niga wasn't even allowed to attend California DNC for christsakes
Trump would absolutely obliterate him. Just like I called Trump would do with ler in 20q6
Biden v. Trump would be pretty close a coin flip IMO that's probably decided by how the economy does between now and 2020. Biden might be a bland centrist but he doesn't have the repulsive personality Hillary has.
So they like him because he was appointed by Obama to what's ultimately a powerless position that doesn't do anything other than break a tie in the Senate? That's a pretty stupid reason to overlook his history on issues like desegregation and criminal justice reform.
It's the reason. If he's good enough for Obama he's good enough for them.
Trump had a history of being a Democrat. Times change.
In my experience the black community participates and supports these left groups such as LGT etc but mostly just because they support back. The average black American is rather old fashioned in terms of males in the household, gays and gun rights.
Biden continues to defend the crime bill to this day, it's not something he's tried to downplay or says he regrets.
I also have no doubt it's at least part of the reason. I think you know the question in the OP was largely rhetorical.
They think he can win. Only reason anyone likes him
That's false.
I guess. The violent crime rate is a little more than half of what it was in the early 90s and coincidently or not the rate went into a freefall after the 1994 crime bill was passed. The incarceration rate OTOH had been blowing up for two full decades before the 1994 bill was passed due mainly to what individual states were doing. Again, correlation isn't causation, but Biden can actually brag about being in the administration when the incarceration trend finally reversed.
It's just not so cut and dry that Biden can't defend himself on the issue at all. Pardon the double negative.
I think you have to consider Trump's in bency as a variable when comparing 2016 to 2020. Seemed like enough liberal voters thought Hillary was a shoe-in that they stayed home. I don't expect that to be the case in 2020.
You also have to consider perception as a "centrist." Most Trump voters certainly didn't view Hillary as a centrist.
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