It's not a Trumpian district. Trump won it by 13% in 2016, then by 8% in 2020. It's a lean R district that's trending left because of all the rich liberals moving there.
It's a Biden +9 seat that the Dems stopped funding because they believed polls that had them dead. Even then, the ugly ass running for it almost won. Run a normal looking white guy and it's an easy flip.
Schweikert's district and Ciscomani's district are both districts Biden won, and they're both sprinting left (Phoenix suburbs and Tucson suburbs). They weren't even supposed to be compe ive this year, and they would get a lot bluer with Trump on the ballot.
the Long Island understander has logged on.
Biden won NY-03 by 8% and NY-04 by 14%; NY-04 is literally the bluest Republican-held district in the country. It's a certainty to flip back with Trump on the ballot and when black turnout is much higher in a presidential election.
But they had someone competent last time according to you
MI-07 went from Trump +4 to Biden +1 from 2016 to 2020. It get 5 points bluer. Seriously, why do you just make up?
You also said MI-08 was flipping this year. I guess if you just predict it every year you'll eventually be right.
Congrats, you're finally right about something.
Maybe they flip at the end of the decade but not in 2024. They all won comfortably in 2022 and in 2024 the Dems will still lose Florida but it's not going to be as lopsided.
There was no abortion on the ballot in Indiana this year and the Dem still won.
It's totally illogical to assume a typically more neutral presidential election is going to be a better environment for Republicans than a midterm year with a Dem in the White House.
At this point you're not even making serious predictions. You're just repeating various forms of "if my uncle had a pussy, then he could be my aunt!"
Again this isn't a prediction, you're just talking about what might happen if the stars align. Youngkin barely won statewide in Virginia in an off cycle election because black voters are lazy and don't show up for off cycle elections. In a presidential election they would show up the way the normally do.
Spanberger is a always an overperformer who held a seat Trump won in 2020.
Right, because it's not like Golden held the seat in 2020 when Trump AND Susan Collins (the most revered politician in ME-02) were both on the ballot.
That seat isn't flipping as long as Golden is in it. New England voters (esp northern New England) have a huge in bent bias. The only way it flips is if Golden runs for senate (which he could)
It's a seat Biden won in 2020 and Pappas is a popular in bent. You have no national basis for this.
It's a seat Biden won by 12% in 2020 and Trone held it despite being a grossly flawed candidate. What's the logic behind Trump being on the ballot as something that helps flips a seat that he lost by 12%?
What the do you mean "their only Democrat in bent" Georgia has 5 Democrat in bents you gum recessed face anus.
That's also not how that would work. Those states all passed maps that are in place for the decade. If SCOTUS invalidates the VRA it has implications in 2030 but it wouldn't give those states a license to pass new maps mid-decade (same reason why states didn't pass now maps in 2013 after SCOTUS gutted pre-clearance).
You know what I meant - GA-02. I was thinking about the other southern states but decided to throw GA in there over GA-02 because of that district being compe ive but lean D and VRA protected despite being largely rural.
Louisiana is the one I believe is still being challenged in court, because the Dems wanted 2 seats. If they get greedy as we saw in NY and try to overturn it, then they could feasibly get a 5-0 map drawn before 2030. The other states, like MS and SC, I believe you're right.
I think the more educated a logical person becomes about issues, the more likely they are to align themselves with liberal ideals on the whole.
I mean, just look at this board
Holy your mom must have drank a lot when she was pregnant with you.
When was the last time we even had a compe ive senate race in New Jersey?
Maybe running a new, shiny object pretending to be an outsider just wasn't a great idea? Normally you end up doing that when you really can't win on platform/ideas.Oz was not a great candidate.
But we are talking about a guy in Fetterman that appears to be mentally incapacitated, now heading to the US senate.
You guys love to slam Walker for being a dumb jock with a luke warm IQ, but are perfectly ok with Sloth from the Goonies, aka Fetterman, because he is on the left.
Oz wasn't a bad candidate, but you can only change the seller of a dud so many times until people figure out that they're buying into the same .
Oh I agree, and that's a big difference. To run as a MAGA Republican you have to either be a highly educated sociopath or an absolutely shameless rube with a name. They don't have a lot of people to choose from.
I don't know that they put that much thought into it. Someone like Herschel Walker having a decent chance at one of the 52 most powerful positions in the US government is an irritating thing for anyone who cares about democracy, and the only people who care about democracy anymore are libs.
In other words, Herschel Walker is a reliable Trumper and he irritates the libs, so Republicans love him.
Last edited by Spurminator; 11-12-2022 at 03:18 PM.
"Unforced error: we told the truth about our platform and voters didn't like it"
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...urity-remarks/New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) cost the GOP in the midterm elections with their respective comments on abortion and Social Security.
Sununu said on “Julie Mason Mornings” on SiriusXM’s POTUS channel in an interview that aired on Friday that Graham “didn’t do anybody any favors” when he proposed a 15-week national abortion ban, nor did Scott with his comments in support of requiring Congress to renew Social Security every five years instead of it being automatically renewed.
Sununu was a real one when he said he wasn’t gonna run for senate just because he didn’t like McConnell and Rick Scott.
Trafailgar isn't even a real pollster. The fling at the wall and said happened to be right in '16 and '20.
Can't wait to see 538 tank their pollster grade.
interesting if this holds up -- exit polls can be pretty iffy
HOUSE UPDATE
- The new batch of ballots makes it highly unlikely that Kent wins; WA-03 is a flip for the Dems
- The new LA County ballots make it highly unlikely the Dems flip CA-22; probably a hold for Garcia
- I was premature in calling AZ-06 a 75% chance the Rs win. The latest Pima drop makes it a 0.4% difference.
Long story short, Dems need to flip each of these seats to win a house majority, here's how I'd rate them:
AZ-01: toss-up/tilt D
AZ-06: lean R
CA-41: tilt R
CA-22: toss-up
Ohr …
masto in nevada…
winner winner chicken dinner!
Both cnn and nbc called it already
moscow mitch!
This might end up being the kiss of death right here, tbh
Not so clear after all.
Sad trombone
It still hurts?
Crying time indeed
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