We covered the top ten keys of this series. Now here's a look at each player and what the Spurs will need in order to slay the Grizzlies and advance to the second round.
-------------------------------
Tim Duncan
Tim Duncan operating on the low block was no longer the go-to play on the offensive end this season for San Antonio. However, as Manu Ginobili works his way back to 100% health following his elbow injury, expect the Spurs to lean on Duncan's post play once again.
To begin the game, the Grizzlies will use Marc Gasol and his big body against Duncan, which will immediately test Duncan's mobility. To have success against Gasol's size, he'll need to utilize dribble-based moves. Duncan can't simply try to flip the ball over Gasol with off-balance leaners -- Gasol is too big and long for that. Knocking down open jumpers would be huge to force Gasol out of the paint and open driving lanes.
When Duncan has another defender on him (namely Zach Randolph, Darrell Arthur or Leon Powe), his strategy should change. Against those smaller players, Duncan getting deep post position and going straight into his shots would be the best plan. That trio of Grizzlies is either too landlocked (Randolph), too small (Arthur) or both (Powe).
On the defensive end, Duncan will begin the game against Gasol. This year, Duncan has done very good work against him but Gasol is definitely talented and will probably have at least one or two notable games in this series. Duncan needs to do his best to keep him out of the lane and be aware of the countless backscreens Gasol receives.
There will also undoubtedly be times that Duncan is called upon to try to slow Randolph. He has to be careful to avoid jumping for pumpfakes and simply force Randolph to shoot over him. The Spurs can live with Randolph shooting jumpers -- they can't live with Duncan on the bench with foul trouble.
Even more important than his individual defense will be Duncan's work on the defensive glass. Duncan is the best defensive rebounder on the team. He's also the only player on the team that can take a body bump from Randolph and consistently still come down with a board.
Earlier in the series, the Spurs will likely need Duncan to average something in the range of 22 points and 14 rebounds. If Ginobili returns to full force, San Antonio could then survive with Duncan averaging 15-17 points -- although remaining a stalwart on the defensive boards would really help.
-------------------------------
Manu Ginobili
This isn't going to be an easy series for Ginobili. Not only does he have to worry about the health of his elbow, when he's ready to play he has the challenge of going against arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA in Tony Allen. And with Allen's aggressive, physical style, there's no doubt he'll be taking hard swipes at the ball to stress test the ligaments in Ginobili's elbow.
Whenever Ginobili is ready to give it a go, it'd be wise to ease his way into the series. At first, it'd probably be best to be a three-point shooter and a pick-and-roll passer. By allowing his confidence to grow naturally, he can make sure he doesn't hurt himself or the team. Though it's difficult for Ginobili to ever play a calm style of basketball, that would be best -- at least at the beginning of the series.
At some point, hopefully Ginobili will be ready to go full bore. At that point, attacking off of pick-and-roll plays should be his main focus. Not only will the picks keep Allen from climbing into his jersey, it will allow Ginobili to go after the Grizzlies bigmen. Memphis likes to hard hedge against pick-and-rolls, which plays right into a healthy Ginobili's hands.
On defense, the Argentine whirlwind has a chance to cause a lot of chaos. When defending Allen, Ginobili can sink into the paint and go for steals and blocks because Allen is one of the worst shooting 2-guards in league. That said, Allen had some success against Ginobili by out-muscling him in the paint. Ginobili can't let that continue in this series. Getting back in transition is the other main key when defending Allen.
Against the other two players Ginobili will likely defend, O.J. Mayo and Shane Battier, he needs to switch gears. Both players are most dangerous when left alone beyond the three-point arc. Ginobili can't sag too much or over-rotate. He did that some in the regular season versus the Grizzlies and it burned the Spurs.
Overall, the Spurs don't need Ginobili to be a superstar to win the series. In fact, given his health and given the the combination of Allen and Battier he'll face, Ginobili playing more of a supporting role for this round will work out just fine. Something along the lines of 12 points, six assists and four rebounds would be great.
-------------------------------
Tony Parker
This has a chance to be Tony Parker's series. And, really, the Spurs need it to be a Tony Parker showcase. If he's the best player in the series, the chances are good that the Spurs will be advancing. If he struggles, San Antonio will have a difficult time against this 8th seed.
Everything is laid out well for Parker. Mike Conley isn't a bad but Parker is the far superior player. Parker is bigger, faster, stronger and has a huge experience advantage. On the break and in isolations, Parker should take it right to him.
If Parker can dominate the Conley matchup, expect the Grizzlies to try to put a swingman on him (Allen, Battier and Sam Young are candidates). If this happens, Parker has to use his speed and the Spurs need to be ready with screens. Since the Grizzlies aren't great at closing off the lane, he should be able to get to the rim no matter who is defending him. The wrong move would be for Parker to try to beat the bigger defenders with outside jumpers.
On defense, he needs to hound Conley as much as possible. Keeping Conley uncomfortable, especially during the first two home games, could help the Spurs blow the game open. Conley is really their only quality ball-handler; their backup point guards are trash and all the rest of their perimeter players are better off the ball.
The bottom line is that Parker has a chance to affect this series on both sides of the court. Let's hope he's ready for the challenge. If he can average 25 points and eight assists to go along with stout defense, the Spurs can turn this into a laugher.
-------------------------------
George Hill
When he's at the top of his game, George Hill is easily the fourth best player on the Spurs. With Ginobili ailing, the Spurs enter the playoffs needing Hill to be locked and loaded. If he's aggressively searching out his shots, he can do a lot of damage against the Grizzlies. Hill could also allow Ginobili to pace himself, which would be invaluable.
During the regular season, Hill's performances against Memphis were on opposite ends of the spectrum. On March 1st, he started in place of Parker at point guard and was positively atrocious. He was passive, soft and indecisive and these hardnosed Grizzlies basically ate him alive. But then in the final week of March, Hill had his revenge. In perhaps his best game of the season, Hill poured in 30 points on only 12 field goal attempts.
Like Parker, Hill should relentlessly attack the hoop. Getting to the free throw line should be a main focus. Hill's mix of athleticism, penetration ability and toughness is a perfect recipe to stack up the freebies against the Grizzlies, who tend to be physical against drivers more often than most.
Hill could also be a big factor on the defensive end. Against Allen, he has to use his strength to keep him out of the lane. Against Mayo, Hill needs to use his quickness and length to force him off the three-point line. Hill will also see time against Conley, which is a great opportunity for the Spurs to wear out the Grizzlies lone ball-handler with Parker resting on the bench.
-------------------------------
Richard Jefferson
With Rudy Gay out of the equation, Richard Jefferson should have no trouble being the best small forward in this series. I don't expect him to star but there's no reason Jefferson should struggle with his personal matchups.
When taking on Young, Jefferson should just keep things simple: 1) Get back on defense to stop Young from getting easy transition buckets. 2) Stay on the ground and in front of him during halfcourt sets to negate Young's legendary pump-fake and force him to rely on his iffy jumpshot. 3) Pressure Young's dribble since he's a poor ball-handler and an even worse passer.
Young and his backup Battier are both scrappy players so there's no room for Jefferson to be soft. Instead, Jefferson needs to be the aggressor. By banging the boards, he can almost single-handedly take away a large chunk of those offensive boards the Grizzlies got against the Spurs in the regular season. Six or seven rebounds per game should be his goal.
Offensively, I don't want Jefferson trying to do anything special. The Grizzlies have the defenders to slow him down and cut off his drives. If Jefferson can knock down open threes and consistently run the court, he'll be doing enough on the offensive end.
-------------------------------
Antonio McDyess
Zach Randolph meet Antonio McDyess. You two will be spending a lot of time around each other over the next couple weeks.
McDyess has his hands full. He won't shut Randolph down but he has to at least make him work. That starts by keeping the burly forward off of the offensive glass. From there, the next key is to keep Randolph from gaining low position on the blocks. Randolph can still go for 30 points by shooting contested shots from outside the paint … but the Spurs will have to live with that. The Spurs just can't have him play like the combination of Shaquille O'Neal and Moses Malone like we saw in the regular season.
On the other end, I wouldn't be surprised if McDyess got a whole lot of open looks. Randolph isn't known for closing out on shooters. Plus, the Grizzlies coaches would likely rather have him dropping back and protecting the paint as much as possible. If that's the case, McDyess getting open 17-footers could become a common theme this series.
McDyess defended Dirk Nowitzki very well last year in the first round. A sequel would be much appreciated.
-------------------------------
Matt Bonner
No player on the Spurs will be as boom or bust as Matt Bonner this series. I can only really imagine two scenarios. Either Bonner will play adequately well on the defensive end while sinking open threes on the other end, or he will get deflowered by Randolph on one end and make matters worse by bricking open looks on offense.
I'm obviously hoping for the former but the latter feels unavoidable. Bonner, even though he's 31 and has been through his share of playoff battles, just doesn't seem to have the needed intestinal for ude for playoff basketball. Randolph will probably just eat him as an early afternoon snack.
The regular season doesn't give me any confidence either. In 96 minutes over four games against the Grizzlies, Bonner grabbed a total of seven defensive rebounds. SEVEN. To put that in perspective, Randolph averaged more than seven offensive rebounds per game against the Spurs.
The only glimmer of hope I see is that April was Bonner's best rebounding month by far. If he can manage to keep Randolph off the boards, that may give Bonner the confidence needed to show how he led the NBA in three-point percentage this year.
-------------------------------
DeJuan Blair
DeJuan Blair could be a very important player over the next few weeks. With toughness and rebounding being so important against the Grizzlies, Blair seems to be a perfect fit in this series … right?
It's possible, but I'm not convinced. Blair has defended Randolph well here and there but the vast majority of the time Randolph has had the clear upper hand. He has been too crafty and too shifty for Blair to corral on a consistent basis. Usually, the result of Randolph going against Blair is an easy basket or a foul.
But if Blair is going to take the next step as an NBA player, this is the type of setting where he should blossom. With bodies to be flying all over the place, Blair should feel at home. After this series, we'll know a lot more about the second year forward out of Pitt.
-------------------------------
Gary Neal
Gary Neal keeps proving me wrong. I thought he was too small and too unathletic to make it in the NBA. He quickly proved me wrong. I then thought teams would adjust to him as the season progressed. They adjusted but Neal proved he could still produce. I then concluded he'd be a fine one-dimensional player … but Neal evolved and proved to have a pretty damn good all-around game. By the end of the regular season, it was difficult to find many better bench guards in the league.
But now it's the playoffs and we Spurs fans know this is the ultimate test. If Neal can't translate his regular season success to postseason success, his value to the Spurs will vanish.
Due to Ginobili's status, Neal will likely get a lot of chances to prove his playoff mettle against the Grizzlies. Let's hope he's up for the challenge. When the offense bogs down, Neal stepping up and carrying the scoring load in stretches would be fantastic. We've seen him do it all year. Let's see if he can do it when it really counts.
-------------------------------
Tiago Splitter
I really doubt we see much of Tiago Splitter this series. Pop seems to have given up on the idea of him being a postseason contributor. By all appearances, Splitter is riding the Wait For The Second Year bus.
Then again, Pop may not have a choice if Bonner is choking and Blair proves he's not up for the challenge. If Splitter does play, I think he's a rather good option to throw at Gasol. Randolph? Not so much.
If it comes down to it, I think Pop goes small before playing Splitter consistent minutes this series. But I've been wrong before . . .
-------------------------------
Steve Novak
In most instances, Steve Novak can play the role of Matt Bonner insurance. In other words, if Bonner is choking, Novak can come in and do a decent imitation.
But I don't think that would work against the Grizzlies. Novak's defense and rebounding makes Bonner look like David Robinson. He has absolutely no chance to defend either Randolph or Gasol.
If Pop is desperate for shooting and calls on Novak, perhaps he can hide him at small forward. But if it comes down to that, something has gone horribly wrong. Let's move on.
-------------------------------
Daniel Green
Suddenly, Daniel Green appears to be the team's backup small forward. He's unlikely to play a meaningful playoff minute, however. That is unless another injury strikes on the perimeter. Again, not a good thought.
-------------------------------
James Anderson
Early this season, Anderson had a spot in the rotation. But since returning from his broken foot, he's been so horrible that he may have played his way off of the active roster.
-------------------------------
i am very interested to see if duncan can switch on for the playoffs and sustain a high level of play. i believe this will be the most important indication of whether or not the spurs can make a deep run in the playoffs. duncan will have wake up from his slumber to make up for the atrociously weak front court of the spurs. if duncan can't provide the interior presence he has done in the past, the spurs will be in trouble.
I would love to see some zone D in this matchup and disturb some passing lanes inside.
And I think also a good idea would be fronting Randolph
Look, the rotations are set for better or worse. I just hope that unlike in the regular season, Pop pulls the plug quickly on things if they aren't working (namely Bonner+Blair). Spurs cannot afford to piss away leads or struggle because Pop sticks with something that is going wrong for too long.
That is really all I care about from Pop.
What up, Deep in the Creep?
"Randolph"
Blair and Bonner should have one, overriding priority: Every time a shot goes up, head straight for Randolph to box him out.
And yet, the FO rewarded this chump with a both a new contract, and an increase in playing time.-------------------------------
Matt Bonner
No player on the Spurs will be as boom or bust as Matt Bonner this series. I can only really imagine two scenarios. Either Bonner will play adequately well on the defensive end while sinking open threes on the other end, or he will get deflowered by Randolph on one end and make matters worse by bricking open looks on offense.
I'm obviously hoping for the former but the latter feels unavoidable. Bonner, even though he's 31 and has been through his share of playoff battles, just doesn't seem to have the needed intestinal for ude for playoff basketball. Randolph will probably just eat him as an early afternoon snack.
The regular season doesn't give me any confidence either. In 96 minutes over four games against the Grizzlies, Bonner grabbed a total of seven defensive rebounds. SEVEN. To put that in perspective, Randolph averaged more than seven offensive rebounds per game against the Spurs.
The only glimmer of hope I see is that April was Bonner's best rebounding month by far. If he can manage to keep Randolph off the boards, that may give Bonner the confidence needed to show how he led the NBA in three-point percentage this year.
I don't give a damn what his 3-pt FG% was during the season, Bonner will choke in the playoffs - as usual. I pray that he proves me wrong, but I've seen this movie before and I already know the ending.
Pop doesn't seem to care that he's compromising his team's chances to advance, by having this guy as a regular rotation player. It's totally unfair to Duncan and the rest of the guys, who bust their tail trying to win games against the top-tier teams.
To me, it's just unconscionable that this organization continues to invest in this one-dimensional, playoff-choker. He's done absolutely nothing to warrant both his place in the regular rotation and this 'mysterious", ongoing faith the coaches have in him. No matter his contribution, he continues to survive.
One would think.
I've stopped worrying about wondering why certain players don't see the floor when common sense says they should.
We've won 61 games this year, so we're still doing something right. Let's hope Pop doesn't mess that up with his love for Bonner.
Hill and RJ. No Manu, so it is your time to step up and perform on both ends. RJ has to be aggressive offensively. It is the EXACT reason the Spurs got him. For when one of the big 3 is struggling or broken down/injured (Manu now). He has to fill that void and be a legit 2 or 3 option.
Great Analysis as always. Many thanks.
No prob.
TP scoring at will + good ol' Timmy + Bonner knocking down his 3s = win
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
