The Spurs are Projected to Have the Worst Record in the NBA
Tre Jones is in line for a lot of minutes this season (Photo via Twitter)
It’s safe to say that prognosticators do not believe in the 2022-2023 version of the San Antonio Spurs. Currently, the Spurs are projected to win just 24.5 games this season. That number is lower than every other team in the NBA. Joining the Spurs in the cellar are the Indiana Pacers (24.5 wins) and Houston Rockets (24.5 wins).
The pessimism isn’t difficult to understand. After trading away Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks for a plethora of draft picks following his All-Star campaign, it’s now crystal clear that the Spurs are ready to take on the task of rebuilding. Gone are the thoughts of extending the franchise’s golden era that led to five championships behind the likes of Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.
In fact, with the hiring of Brett Brown, it’s possible that the Spurs will tank from Day 1 of the season. Brown, if you remember correctly, was the head coach of the Philadelphia 76ers during their tanking seasons that became known as The Process.
If Gregg Popovich leans on Brown’s tanking experience early and often, the sportsbooks and prognosticators could very well be right that the Spurs will win around 23 or 24 games. However, there are reasons why it’s tempting to bet on San Antonio doing better than the prognosticators expect.
Why the Spurs Could Be Better Than Expected This Season
First of all, history tells us Popovich isn’t an advocate for tanking. Last season, for example, prognosticators thought the Spurs would be near the bottom of the standings — but instead Popovich and the Spurs advanced to the NBA Play-In Tournament due to having one of the ten best records in the Western Conference.
“You can’t go to your team and ask them to lose,” Popovich explained last season. “You can’t do that.”
It’s clear that losing isn’t something Popovich is comfortable with, even if it could directly lead to better odds of a higher draft pick.
Secondly, San Antonio’s front office hasn’t completed the teardown process. Specifically, while Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson are very likely to be traded at some point this season, they are currently still on the roster.
The Spurs outscored opponents last year when either Poeltl or Richardson were on the court. Poeltl is a very good defensive center who plays a winning brand of basketball, while Richardson is a three-and-D specialist who knows his role and quickly stepped in as a leader once he was traded to San Antonio. As long as these two veterans are on the Spurs, the Silver and Black could win more games than expected due to their collective veteran know-how.
Third of all, even if the Spurs are actively tanking, they won’t be the only team in the league tanking. With teams already salivating over the idea of drafting highly rated prospects like Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, expect a handful of teams to purposely lose games in hopes of getting a top draft pick.
The Jazz have traded away Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic as they also enter a full rebuild. The Rockets have a very young squad that has almost no experience when it comes to having success in the NBA. The Pacers are continuing to sell assets, while the Thunder are likely to once again angle for a top pick.
Finally, the Spurs have a handful of younger players who could potentially be much better than anticipated. Keldon Johnson, who signed an $80 million extension, looks capable of carrying a lot of the scoring load. Devin Vassell has potential on both sides of the court. Even youngsters like Tre Jones and Joshua Primo could prove to be full-time starters by the end of the 2022-23 season.
Reasons to Think the Spurs Will Struggle This Season
Before you place your bet on the Spurs winning more than 24.5 games this season, there are a few things to keep in mind. These are the things that the prognosticators are surely factoring in when predicting San Antonio to lose so many games.
First, even though Poeltl and Richardson are with the Spurs now, that could change at any time. Once those two veterans are gone, it’s likely that wins will become much more infrequent.
Second, the Spurs will lean on youth much more than ever before. It’s possible that Jones and Primo are the top two options to replace Murray at point guard, which is a lot to ask out of two players with minimal NBA experience. Plus, as good as Johnson and Vassell could be this season, they’re still both only 22 years old.
It’s also important to remember that the Spurs drafted three players in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft. All three — Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley — will likely get minutes for San Antonio this season. To start the season, one or two of the rookies are likely to be in the everyday rotation. It’s even possible for one of the rookies to crack the starting lineup.
Third, and most importantly, is the fact that it’s now obvious that the Spurs are finally embracing a rebuild — and it isn’t just because they hired Brown as an assistant coach. In previous seasons, the Spurs still operated as a team interested in making the playoffs. For instance, San Antonio signed sharpshooting veterans Doug McDermott and Bryn Forbes last summer to provide spacing and squeeze out some extra wins.
This summer, conversely, the Spurs haven’t brought in any veteran role players that are expected to play meaningful minutes. Even though the Spurs have as much as $30 million in cap space, the front office is ready to let the young players sink or swim rather than try to fill every last hole in the roster.
With Spurs training camp days away, all indications are that San Antonio will lose early and lose often this season. That’s what prognosticators expect, at least. However, there’s a chance that the Spurs will be better than a 24-win squad — a chance that might be worth betting on.