Rita and Corpus Christi

[Hook Dem]

Jeff Masters seems to think this one could be a Cat#4 at landfall........ "As Rita continues on into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, continued strengthening is expected. The shear over her has dropped below 5 knots, and may decrease further. The upper level outflow has improved considerably today, and Rita now has a more circular and symmetric appearance with excellent outflow on all sides. The water under Rita will remain in the 30 - 31C range until Wednesday morning, then cool off to 29 - 30C over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, where the cooler waters stirred up to the surface by Hurricane Katrina still remain. These cooler waters should keep Rita in the strong Category 2 to strong Category 3 range as she moves across the central Gulf. Once Rita approaches the coast of Texas, the cold water wake of Katrina ends and water temperatures warm up to about 30C, which may allow some intensification. Rita will be a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane by landfall in Texas on Saturday. The 8am of the GFS model indicates Rita may be a Category 4 at landfall." Damn!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES00452005264rKNfzS.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Thats the best the storm has looked at any point in its lifetime. It's going to blow up overnight.

I didn't think a Cat 4 was possible, but I think the storm just convinced me. This season is pretty fucking unprecedented.

[Ginofan]

NKD, here a couple of Katrina that you wanted to see.

Link 1 (http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/7181/hotk59wc.jpg)
Link 2 (http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/6215/hiresvisk2245z90lm.jpg)
Link 3 (http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/8439/katrinazoom908mb5ie.jpg)

[exstatic]

Houston is going to be in hurting status if that yellow track happens. The fucking surge would go right up the shipping channel, and the runoff would have nowhere to go. Flood city.

[Hook Dem]

Houston is going to be in hurting status if that yellow track happens. The fucking surge would go right up the shipping channel, and the runoff would have nowhere to go. Flood city.
Houston and Galveston will be hurting anyway if it goes in at Matagorda Bay. They will be on the north side of the storm.

[cherylsteele]

Thats the best the storm has looked at any point in its lifetime. It's going to blow up overnight.

Isn't that what Katrina did? I woke up thursday (I think) and saw it was nearly CAT 5.

[SpursWoman]

Isn't that what Katrina did? I woke up thursday (I think) and saw it was nearly CAT 5.

That was the day before it made landfall (Sunday) :)

[Cant_Be_Faded]

How will civilization persist along the third coast if this is hurricane season is just the start of crazy ass weather patterns we're about to see for the next 20 or 30 years?

[MannyIsGod]

This is not going to pull a Katrina. It just isn't. Katrina was something we'd all be lucky to see again in our lifetime. Or unlucky depending on how you look at it.

[Ginofan]

Mandatory evac for Galveston, starting tomorrow morning as per MSNBC.

[Manu20]

As of 10pm CDT Hurricane Rita has wind of 110 mph gusting to 135 and the minimum pressure 965 mb

[TheWriter]

This is not going to pull a Katrina. It just isn't. Katrina was something we'd all be lucky to see again in our lifetime. Or unlucky depending on how you look at it.

Katrina was barely a CAT 1 when it hit South Florida.

This thing is over Florida as a CAT 2.

[MannyIsGod]

and that has absolutely no bearing on anything.

[MannyIsGod]

And it never went over Florida.

[TheWriter]

and that has absolutely no bearing on anything.

So it being a cat 2 before entering the gulf has no bearing? So when it hits the even warmer waters that lay ahead, it's gonna get weaker?

[TheWriter]

And it never went over Florida.

Its outer bands are.

[Ginofan]

Katrina was barely a CAT 1 when it hit South Florida.

This thing is over Florida as a CAT 2.

You're an idiot. Do you even follow these things closely, or are you just talking out of your ass?

Katrina was the storm of the century in all categories, formation, strength, damaged caused, etc etc. RITA is not Katrina II. Though she is getting into "Major Hurricane" status with size and strength, she's still in the shadows of Katrina. The Galveston area is already evacuating, the devestation is not going to be nearly as much as Katrina because they are better prepared. When Katrina was CAT 3 she had a pressure of 950mb, do you realize that with Rita right now at a CAT 2/3 she's still at 965mb? Or do you even know what that means? Sure, Rita is gonna blow up to a 4 probably by tomorrow night, but EVEN THEN you won't be able to compare her to Katrina.

[Ginofan]

Its outer bands are.

:lol Do you realize how huge this thing is?? Of course the outerbands are going to hit land! BUT when talking of hurricanes "going over" or "hitting" someplace, they are talking about the center of the storm AKA the EYE.

[MannyIsGod]

Just because this storm enters the Gulf at a stronger catagory than Katrina does not mean it can reach the same intensity. The intensity of a hurricane is not certain to go up as long as it is over water. There are several factors which include surface temp, shear, and air preasure in the upper levels.

So, it really means nothing on its own. If conditions were the way before Katrina came into the Gulf, then it would be a comparison you could make, but otherwise it is just foolish.

And the outer bands are just that: the outer bands of a storm. The storm center has never traversed over land. That is the reason it is still a catagory 2 storm. And if you want to get even more technical about things, Katrina was a tropical storm when it entered the Gulf.

So, now that I've explained it to you again, will you please stfu with the comparisons?

[Horry For 3!]

I won't really get much of it, maybe some rain.

[Manu20]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 14


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2005



data from an Air Force Reserve unit recon aircraft at 21/0020z in
the northeast quadrant indicated 700 mb flight-level winds of 103
kt...roughly 93 kt surface winds. Doppler radar velocities from Key
West have been as high as 113 kt at 9500 feet in spots...with the
majority of the highest values in the 105-107 kt range...which
equals about 95 kt surface winds. A recon pass through the 28 nmi
diameter eye at 0204z indicated a surface pressure of 965 mb...
which roughly equals 95 kt. Therefore...the initial intensity has
been increased to 95 kt...or just below major hurricane strength.

The initial motion is 275/11. Rita is expected to continue moving a
little north of due west for the next 36-48 hours as the strong
ridge to the north remains intact along the Gulf Coast and into
central and northern Texas. The 18z GFS and GFS-ensemble models
have shifted eastward to near the Texas-Louisiana border. However
...Both models were forecasting the 21/00z 500 mb heights across
Texas to decrease by 20 meters...when in fact... 21/00z upper-air
data indicate The Heights did not change and the mid-level high
over northwest Texas has remained quite strong with heights near
6000 meters. As a result...less weight was palced on the GFS model
...Since it appears to be decreasing the strength of the ridge too
quickly...the official forecast track is just an update and
extension of the previous advisory track...and is close to the NHC
model consensus.

The previous advisory indicating rapid intensification for the next
24 hours appears to be on track. During the past 14 hours...the
central pressure has decreased 20 mb...or at a rate of about 2
Dvorak T-numbers per 24 hours. While such a large pressure fall
trend rarely occurs for more than 24 hours...the very favorable
upper-level outflow pattern and 30c-31c SSTs beneath Rita suggest
that rapid intensification should continue for at least another 24
hours. A poleward outflow channel is well established with outflow
accumulating into a large upper-level low...or mass sink...east of
the Bahamas. In addition... an equatorward outflow channel also
appears to be developing. Given the dual outflow pattern that is
expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours...strengthening into a
category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility. By 72 hours... a
gradual increase in the southwesterly vertical shear is expected to
bring about some weakening. However...the GFS-based SHIPS model
that is indicating 25-30 kt of shear may be including the winds
associated with the strong outflow pattern depicted by the model.
This would mean that the GFS shear is too high...and thus...the
sharp GFS weakening of Rita down to 99 kt at landfall would be
premature. The official intensity forecast leans closer to the FSU
superensemble intensity forecast of 122 kt in 48 hours and 126 kt
in 60 hours.

Forecaster Stewart

[MannyIsGod]

The outflow pattern that is developing is damn near ideal. It is making the storm so efficent that it may not need as much instability at the surface (from the sea surface temps) to get stronger. If we see another catagory five storm develop in the Gulf I don't know what to say. This is totaly unprecedented. So many things are coming together it is flat out amazing.

This is akin to waking up to a total eclipse of the sun one day, and then having another one the following week. Things just don't line up this perfectly very often much less 2 times in less than a month or twice in the same hurricane season.

While I doubt this storm would reach the intensity of Katrina, I never would have imagined that it reaching catagory five status was a "distinct possibility". After watching the storm organize itself tonight I was pretty sure it would reach catagory 4 status but I didn't think (and really, I still don't think) it would reach much above a minimal 4.

The other thing I noticed in that discussion was the information on the GFS and why it shifted track back to the east. It was starting to erode the ridge faster and hence it shifted the track to the east, but the ridge hasn't begun to erode and has in fact increased so that can be discounted.

In other words, the last run of the GFS isn't verifying and can probably be taken with a big grain of salt.

This has a trickle down effect on the rest of the models because they all use GFS information and prediction in their own predictions. The GFS is what is known as a global model and basically does exactly what it sounds like it does. It predicts the weather for the entire atmosphere. The other models are more specific to the storms or smaller areas and use the GFS information for the surrounding environment.

So what that all means is that if the GFS is off, the next model runs using GFS information will be off. So even though the models have shifted more to the TX LA border, the NHC has not shifted the track because of this.

[Manu20]

This is the latest run from the NAM model.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_p06_084s.gif

[Cant_Be_Faded]

im going to pray

[CosmicCowboy]

I was just punching in to tell you guys that the shit was about to hit the fan but it looks like you already picked up on it...at this point the best we can hope for is that it hits between Port Isabel and Port Mansfield or between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay...cuz it's gonna tear whatever it hits a new asshole...pray for that high to hold so that it starts to shear degrade before it makes landfall...

[Manu20]

I was just punching in to tell you guys that the shit was about to hit the fan but it looks like you already picked up on it...at this point the best we can hope for is that it hits between Port Isabel and Port Mansfield or between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay...cuz it's gonna tear whatever it hits a new asshole...pray for that high to hold so that it starts to shear degrade before it makes landfall...

I hate to wish this thing on anyone but IMO the best place for Rita to hit is in kenedy county.

[MannyIsGod]

I really wanted to chase this storm. If it comes in at anything 3 and up, you can forget about it. I'm not going anywhere near a major hurricane unless I have to. However, if it does end up heading torwards Houston, Jess has family there. By contrast, I have family lower on the coast.

This one is going to effect a lot of people from this board in one way or another.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Victoria seems to be right in the middle of all the possible targets

[MannyIsGod]

Kennedy county is definetly the best place for this storm to come ashore. Nothing but cows for miles.

[MannyIsGod]

Victoria seems to be right in the middle of all the possible targets
Still a long way off, hopefully everything will work out just fine for you.

[TheWriter]

This is the latest run from the NAM model.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_p06_084s.gif

Wouldn't that high pressure take it towards Louisiana?

[MannyIsGod]

No, it will gravitate torwards low pressure because that is the path of least resistance.

[CosmicCowboy]

Wouldn't that high pressure take it towards Louisiana?

nope...it's holding it south over the gulf and keeping it from turning north...it will just keep getting stronger till it finally makes the turn...

[Vashner]

Texas DPS just opened the evacuation lane from Corpus to San Antonio.

[MannyIsGod]

One thing to consider as well...

You all remember Katrina weakening a lot right before landfall. This was due to a couple of reasons. It left the pool of superheated water it was over, and it encountered shear because of an incoming trof which made it turn to begin with.

This storm will more than likely NOT encounter a trof. It will ride the edge of the high north, but the trof that is moving the high won't intereact with it untill after landfall.

So, there will not be much shear to lower the system's intensity. The last discusion brought that up. While the models are calling for shear, that is probably just the outflow they are picking up.

If she's strong coming near the shore, don't expect the kind of weaking Katrina underwent.

[Manu20]

This is the latest run from the GFS model.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_084s.gif

[MannyIsGod]

That is the 0z run?

[Manu20]

That is the 0z run?
Yes.

[TheWriter]

Serious question, if this thing became a strong cat 4 maybe 5 and did a straight on hit to Corpus, could it actually destroy that city?

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, the 0z GFS shifted back to the south. Expect the next series of models to do the same.

[MannyIsGod]

Serious question, if this thing became a strong cat 4 maybe 5 and did a straight on hit to Corpus, could it actually destroy that city?
Absolutely.

[TheWriter]

Absolutely.

Fuck, really? I have a cousin living there.

I don't talk to her much but she just moved there about 3 months ago.

[samikeyp]

Serious question, if this thing became a strong cat 4 maybe 5 and did a straight on hit to Corpus, could it actually destroy that city?

We would get a lot from it also, not to the extent that Corpus would but we could see flooding from a butt-load of rain.

[TheWriter]

We would get a lot from it also, not to the extent that Corpus would but we could see flooding from a butt-load of rain.

But not 1998 flooding though,

1998 was a tropical storm that staled over San Antonio, sending band after band of rain.

[MannyIsGod]

We'd get a lot of wind too. You guys may not think of sustained tropical force winds as much, but that is at least 40mph SUSTAINED. That'll do a fair amount of damage coupled with higher gusts.

[Spurfect]

my mom, stepdad and my best friend live in Corpus Christi not to mention alot more people I knew and grew up with.. that sucks

[Vashner]

Refinery row.. and or any damage to the deepwater port at Corpus.. or refineries in Houston area... those are the major risks.. GAS prices $$$$$ 6-10 bucks or more a gallon of petrol... if Refinery Row where to be wiped out.

T - MINUS 80 hours 27 minutes till estimated landfall....

[Zombie]

Manny, you'd make a good weatherman. Early in this thread you said it would never be a cat 4, now you are saying its possible. :spin

[samikeyp]

But not 1998 flooding though,

1998 was a tropical storm that staled over San Antonio, sending band after band of rain.

If Rita stalled over us, it could.

[CosmicCowboy]

Serious question, if this thing became a strong cat 4 maybe 5 and did a straight on hit to Corpus, could it actually destroy that city?

It will tear the shit out of it with wind damage and some serious flooding but it won't destroy it. Port Aransas and the other stuff on the barrier island COULD be destroyed...they act as kind of a seawall for CC...CC won't get the dramatic storm surge in town that Mobile got but the island would be under water...

[boutons]

What's the draft on the Lexington?
It'd be great to see an aircraft carrier straddling IH37.
dubya could blow $10B to torch it for scrap.

[CosmicCowboy]

gonna be interesting to see what Packery Channel looks like after this...it could totally reshape the island/bay system interaction....

[Vashner]

I would ride it out in the Lex's command tower that's fer sure.. with a plastic tub of Heinies.

[SequSpur]

wow, we got alot of meteorologists in here.

[MannyIsGod]

1998 was not a stalled out tropical storm.

[MannyIsGod]

gonna be interesting to see what Packery Channel looks like after this...it could totally reshape the island/bay system interaction....
Brett tore a hole straight through Padre Island in 99. It'll be interesting indeed.

[CosmicCowboy]

1998 was not a stalled out tropical storm.

agreed. It was one amazing July in Texas though...

[Vashner]

This whole earth view is so sweet..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GEIR.JPG

[MannyIsGod]

agreed. It was one amazing July in Texas though...
:lol

2002 was July.

1998 was October.

[TheWriter]

:lol

2002 was July.

1998 was October.

I remember getting band after band of rain in 1998. Wasn't that a staled tropical storm? Or just a wicked front?

[MannyIsGod]

Just an upper level low.

[TheWriter]

Just an upper level low.

So 2002 was when the storm staled?

[MannyIsGod]

2002 was just a lot of different factors over the course of 7-8 days.

[atlfan25]

i think 98 was in july, and 02 in october

[MannyIsGod]

Nope. 2002 was July, 1998 was October.

[atlfan25]

Nope. 2002 was July, 1998 was October.
naw cuz in 98 i had an allstar game that day and it was rained out, coudln't have been october

and in 02 it was during school cuz we had to leave early, so coudln't have been july

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

"The Daily University Star"

Great Flood of 1998 - Special Coverage

Oct. 17-20

I also remember because our homecoming game was washed out.

[TheWriter]

naw cuz in 98 i had an allstar game that day and it was rained out, coudln't have been october

and in 02 it was during school cuz we had to leave early, so coudln't have been july

1998 was October and 2002 was July. I remember it was the first day of July when the rain started. My parents had just bought a big screen tv the day before the rain started. I remember watching news coverage on the new tv.

[atlfan25]

well shit, in schert/cibolo we had floods when i described them, may not be what y'all are talking about

cibolo creek floods easily, so it could be different than what y'all are thinking

[TheWriter]

well shit, in schert/cibolo we had floods when i described them, may not be what y'all are talking about

cibolo creek floods easily, so it could be different than what y'all are thinking

What you're talking about is confusing two different events with the wrong time dates.

Flood of 1998 was in Oct. While the floods in 2002 were in July.

You're probably right about the Cibolo creek flooding at different times, but no way can you confuse the months of those two 100 year floods.

[atlfan25]

What you're talking about is confusing two different events with the wrong time dates.

Flood of 1998 was in Oct. While the floods in 2002 were in July.
I do not know.

Here is what I know. I know the big flood that happened like around my 8th grade year(97/98) was during baseball allstars for me, which would be in the summer. I remember good cuz all our fields were flooded over and we coudln't play anymore.

Then my senior year,01/02. There was another big flood that i left school early for(like 1pm) just in time before cibolo creek flooded the area in full again and we had no school for like 3 days. I just know that couldn't have been in the summer.

[TheWriter]

I do not know.

Here is what I know. I know the big flood that happened like around my 8th grade year(97/98) was during baseball allstars for me, which would be in the summer. I remember good cuz all our fields were flooded over and we coudln't play anymore.

Then my senior year,01/02. There was another big flood that i left school early for(like 1pm) just in time before cibolo creek flooded the area in full again and we had no school for like 3 days. I just know that couldn't have been in the summer.

Dude.

1998:
http://floodsafety.com/texas/documentaries/1998/

2002:
http://floodsafety.com/texas/documentaries/j2002/

[atlfan25]

Just telling you what I remember. Cibolo Creek floods often.

Those are at even different times than what I remember. I know recall the 98 shit cuz i was a freshman and I remember all these kids having their books washed away.
I probably don't really remember the 2002 shit cuz at that time i wasn't in the cibolo area and the flood didn't affect me.

[exstatic]

There was a Cibolo creek flood in July of 97. I remember it because it went all the way up to the railroad bridge in Schertz. The regional 98 flood was in October. The regional flood in 2002 was in July.

[TheWriter]

I probably don't really remember the 2002 shit cuz at that time i wasn't in the cibolo area and the flood didn't affect me.

Huh?

Then my senior year,01/02. There was another big flood that i left school early for(like 1pm) just in time before cibolo creek flooded the area in full again and we had no school for like 3 days. I just know that couldn't have been in the summer.

[atlfan25]

Huh?

Then my senior year,01/02. There was another big flood that i left school early for(like 1pm) just in time before cibolo creek flooded the area in full again and we had no school for like 3 days. I just know that couldn't have been in the summer.
but if it was in july of 02 it was after i grad and i was living by the northwoods theatre not in school, there was another flood before that in the schertz area

[atlfan25]

There was a Cibolo creek flood in July of 97. I remember it because it went all the way up to the railroad bridge in Schertz. The regional 98 flood was in October. The regional flood in 2002 was in July.
that 97 shit was what i remember then

[TheWriter]

but if it was in july of 02 it was after i grad and i was living by the northwoods theatre not in school, there was another flood before that in the schertz area

If you left Schertz after your graduated then what the hell was all the crap you were saying about the flood happening in Oct. of 2002?

[atlfan25]

If you left Schertz after your graduated then what the hell was all the crap you were saying about the flood happening in Oct. of 2002?
simply got school years confused

there were a lot of floods, we are both right

[TheWriter]

ya and i thought it happened before oct in 02

there were a lot of floods, we are both right

Dude, you're just completely confusing the shit out of me.

[Vashner]

Rita Upgraded to Cat 3 Storm

[Nbadan]

Manny, you'd make a good weatherman. Early in this thread you said it would never be a cat 4, now you are saying its possible. :spin


Bingo.

:hat

[travis2]

0400L advisory from the Hurricane Center...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 210832
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...MAJOR CATEGORY THREE RITA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING
KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[travis2]

Current GFS model for right around landfall...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_066l.gif

[travis2]

On the other hand...current NAM model for landfall...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_slp_072l.gif

[Dos]

it's now a CAT 4 just announced at 6.45am ..

[travis2]

Nice call...here's the advisory...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 211137
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[travis2]

Check out the GOES 1 floater loop...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

This thing is blowing up...

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

The NHC has their guidance on the northern edge of the models. I think the southern edge is more appropriate.

[MannyIsGod]

For Dan and Zombie:

I said it was a possibility. I didn't think it was a large possibility by any means, and I was wrong.

Now, if only we could get Dan to admit when he was wrong. That will be the day.

[travis2]

'sup Manny?

[CosmicCowboy]

damn...I've got relatives on the bay in the Galveston/Houston area and on the island at Port Aransas. Naturally everyone is coming to my house...so far the animal count alone is two horses, 4 (inside) dogs, and 18 (inside) cats. Promises to be an interesting weekend.

[travis2]

damn...I've got relatives on the bay in the Galveston/Houston area and on the island at Port Aransas. Naturally everyone is coming to my house...so far the animal count alone is two horses, 4 (inside) dogs, and 18 (inside) cats. Promises to be an interesting weekend.
:lol

Need any cat recipes?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

Hey Manny, shoulda listened to my fellow Ags :spin

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Someone should tell XTRP (whoever that is) to put down the bong on their track :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

Someone should tell XTRP (whoever that is) to put down the bong on their track :lol

that is just an extension of the exact direction the hurricane is heading right now. thats not a model.

[MannyIsGod]

AHF, I should have. The good news is that in the last discussion they mention the outflow channel to the south isn't looking as good. Hopefully that precludes this monster from reaching catagory five status.

[Ishta]

The only thing positive that came from Katrina, is that people are starting to get out early.. Texas hasn't had a hurricane of this magnitude in awhile..I hope everyone's family will be safe that is in the path of Rita.

[MannyIsGod]

After watching the satellite animation, she is actually moving a bit south of due west. Not much, but it might affect the forcast some to the shouth.

[easjer]

The mandatory evacs are underway for the expected storm surge folks, and Galveston leads the way.

Tomorrow, the main freeways are expected to be reversed, so that traffic becomes outbound only.

They are being very clear about the risks and who needs to evac and who doesn't, but urging folks to go if they are concerned. We (spurs_fan_in_exile and myself and our cat, HRH Prince) are not in or near those zones, high raises, bayous or floodplains, so we are staying at this time.

We've got supplies already (that's a crazy story in itself), and they are telling people to keep calm, as they are bringing in more water, batteries, canned goods, gas, etc. They are stockpiling water, ice, medical supplies. The national guard are already here with pumping lines and emergency generators. People are scared, but it's already much clamer, and more organized than Katrina (probably because we've actually had evac plans in place . . . ).

So. Yeah. Right now it almost doesn't matter where it hits, as Houston is going to get slammed with the worst of it.

[Hook Dem]

The only thing positive that came from Katrina, is that people are starting to get out early.. Texas hasn't had a hurricane of this magnitude in awhile..I hope everyone's family will be safe that is in the path of Rita.
A refreshing post in the midst of all the self proclaimed experts!

[MannyIsGod]

Eas, you guys should be fine. Glad to hear things are under control there.

[Shelly]

Y'all stay safe, easjer and other coastal peeps!

[Ginofan]

Wow a CAT 4 this morning when most reports thought it wouldn't be until tonight, impressive. A shift south would put her more towards Corpus and Port A than at Matagorda correct?

[cherylsteele]

2002 was just a lot of different factors over the course of 7-8 days.

I seemed to remember the '98 flood was a hurricane stalled off the Mexico Pacific coast and it just threw rain bands into our area over a stalled front.

[travis2]

After watching the satellite animation, she is actually moving a bit south of due west. Not much, but it might affect the forcast some to the shouth.

NAM and NGM both show a drift southward over the next 48. GFS is still running...

[MannyIsGod]

Depends. A push to the south now means that hte high might be stronger than anticipated by the models - which is a trend - and put it further south on the coast. But this really isn't a push south, just a course slightly south of due west. They are forcasting her to shift more WNW today. We'll see if that happens. The longer she heads on a pure westerly course the further south the risk slides.

[Shelly]

Manny, where do you guessitmate it will land?

[MannyIsGod]

I seemed to remember the '98 flood was a hurricane stalled off the Mexico Pacific coast and it just threw rain bands into our area over a stalled front.
98 was a upper level low that tapped into tropical moisture from the pacific. A front cleared out hte low and then stalled on the coast, givng us overruning showers for a day or 2 after that, but that was pretty insignificant compared to the 30 inches of rain that we got via the upper level low in those 2 days prior.

[MannyIsGod]

I honestly think Port A/Rockport are under the gun.

For what its worth. I'm not a meteorologist. I just play one on the net.

[MannyIsGod]

The NGM has been all over the damn place on this one Trav. I don't like it one bit.

[easjer]

I was set on evacuating yesterday, and Jason was coming around to the idea, but we watched everything last night and this morning, and the local folks are doing everything they can to be clear about the threats and what to expect.

I just hope we'll be able to get our marriage license tomorrow (or this afternoon if we close early, and I expect we will), and further get out of town by the middle of next week for the wedding. It's been a dry month, the bayous are low, so once the storm surge subsides, the flooding should dissipate pretty quickly. And ofcourse, they'll be pumping, so that's good too.

[travis2]

The NGM has been all over the damn place on this one Trav. I don't like it one bit.
I know what you mean...I didn't post it earlier because it was WAY south...even further south than the NAM run...

[travis2]

Oh, and for those of you talking about tropical systems stalling over Central Texas and flooding us out...I don't know right offhand about any others, but the 1978 Guadalupe basin flood was the result of a tropical storm stalling out over this area...

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 16


Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 21, 2005


...Rita remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...winds now
estimated 140 mph winds...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the
Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas
has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast later today or this evening.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of dangerous Hurricane Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.3 north...longitude 85.9 west or about 260 miles...
west of Key West Florida and about 755 miles east-southeast of
Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...with higher
gusts. Rita is a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours and could reach category five intensity in
the central Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles. The wind field associated with Rita is forecast to
expand during the next day or two.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb...27.88 inches.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.3 N... 85.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 944 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Avila

I honestly don't know what to say...this is getting crazy.

[1369]

Gino, one thing you didn't include


Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 16


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005



the reconnaissance plane will not be in the area of Rita until later
this morning. However...satellite images indicate that the cloud
pattern is typical of an intense hurricane with a clear eye
surrounded by very deep convection. Initial intensity is adjusted
upward to 120 knots at this time. However...objective T-numbers from
both TAFB and the University of Wisconsin CIMSS are peaking near
7.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting winds of near 140 knots. I
will wait for the plane to reach Rita to increase the winds
further...if necessary. The environment is conducive for
strengthening and Rita...as Katrina did...will be crossing The Loop
current or an area of high heat content within the next 12 hours or
so. This would aid the intensification process. Thereafter...the
intensity will be controlled by changes in the eyewall which are
difficult to predict. The heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico is not as favorable as in the area of The Loop current so
slight weakening is anticipated....but Rita is expected to make
landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

There has been no change in the steering pattern. Rita is moving
westward at 11 knots south of a strong high. As the high moves
eastward...Rita will gradually begin to move toward the west-
northwest and northwest basically toward the Texas coast. The
official forecast is very close to the model consensus and has not
changed from the previous forecast.
Both the GFS and the GFDL suggest that the wind field will expand.
Therefore the forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordinly. On
this track and due to the large wind field associated with Rita...a
Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon or
tonight.

Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/1500z 24.3n 85.9w 120 kt
12hr VT 22/0000z 24.5n 87.9w 135 kt
24hr VT 22/1200z 25.0n 90.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 23/0000z 25.7n 92.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/1200z 26.6n 94.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 96.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/1200z 32.5n 97.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/1200z 35.5n 97.0w 25 kt...inland




I know it is still a long way out, but the 72 hour projection has Rita making landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca.

[easjer]

My biggest concern now, after talking to folks here is that we won't be able to get OUT of the city in time for the wedding. I know it's silly to focus on that, but we've had a real long hard road to get here to it, and folks coming in from Canada to be there who can't really afford it, and so I'm wondering if we should just go. . .

Fuck. I'm so confused and worried.

[travis2]

Updated 3-day track prediction...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W_sm2+gif/145605W_sm.gif

[travis2]

My biggest concern now, after talking to folks here is that we won't be able to get OUT of the city in time for the wedding. I know it's silly to focus on that, but we've had a real long hard road to get here to it, and folks coming in from Canada to be there who can't really afford it, and so I'm wondering if we should just go. . .

Fuck. I'm so confused and worried.

Refresh my memory...when and where?

[Ginofan]

Yeah 1369, they didn't have the discussion up yet when i posted the advisory. Thanks though.

[Hook Dem]

"I know it is still a long way out, but the 72 hour projection has Rita making landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca."
In all reality, this is probably closest to the truth! You can not discount the damage that the Galveston area will receive but the news services need to quit saying "it's going to Galveston". This is misleading to most people and might cause others not to evacuate.

[Hook Dem]

Winds now up to 140 MPH.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the average error for a 3 day prediction like this is only 200 miles. So it could very well be going to Galveston. And even if it doesn't make a direct hit there, they will recive an enourmous amount of storm surge because they will be on the north side.

Make no mistake, barring a big move to the south, Galveston is going to get hit.

I wish this last GFS would hurry up and get posted.

[easjer]

Refresh my memory...when and where?

SW side of town, on Gessner between Bellaire and Westpark. Normally we go up Gessner 10-15 minutes to pick up I10 and go straight down I10 to 46 and New Braunfels.

Now that I'm not worried about staying, I'm worried to death about being able to get out. Yes, I have anxiety, so what? But in all seriousness, my boss, who's been here for a long time, says to go. She truly doesn't believe we'll be able to get out. And she's the one who was planning a hurricane party not that long ago.

And of course, there is the idea the car may not be in condition to drive out. Groan. Why now? Why not on our honeymoon? Or last month, when we could blissfully have sat through it?

[easjer]

A Port Lavaca hit is actually worse for Houston/Galveston than a direct hit, if you can believe it.

[xrayzebra]

Winds now up to 140 MPH.

Yep, if this thing goes into Corpus, we can expect a big blow and lots of rain here in SA. Does anyone remember Carla in 61 or 62. SA got lots of both, but Austin got a bigger hit. Really made a mess of things there.
:depressed

[travis2]

SW side of town, on Gessner between Bellaire and Westpark. Normally we go up Gessner 10-15 minutes to pick up I10 and go straight down I10 to 46 and New Braunfels.

Now that I'm not worried about staying, I'm worried to death about being able to get out. Yes, I have anxiety, so what? But in all seriousness, my boss, who's been here for a long time, says to go. She truly doesn't believe we'll be able to get out. And she's the one who was planning a hurricane party not that long ago.

And of course, there is the idea the car may not be in condition to drive out. Groan. Why now? Why not on our honeymoon? Or last month, when we could blissfully have sat through it?

So you would want you and your wedding guests to go to New Braunfels?

[travis2]

Well, the average error for a 3 day prediction like this is only 200 miles. So it could very well be going to Galveston. And even if it doesn't make a direct hit there, they will recive an enourmous amount of storm surge because they will be on the north side.

Make no mistake, barring a big move to the south, Galveston is going to get hit.

I wish this last GFS would hurry up and get posted.

12Z NAM is finished. 12Z GFS just started running about 20 minutes ago...

[travis2]

12Z NAM has it slowing down a bit, then plowing into Corpus Christi sometime Saturday PM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

[travis2]

Here's the last frame in the NAM sequence...00UTC 9/25 = 1900L 9/24
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_084l.gif

[easjer]

So you would want you and your wedding guests to go to New Braunfels?

That's where the wedding is scheduled. My family is there, and my fi is from SA.

Most of my wedding guests are evacuating. I know how awful it sounds to be focused on this, but it's been two years, and moving beyond a suicide attempt and cutting ties with family to get to this point. This is something we need to do, and I don't know if I can handle it being pushed back.

I dont' care if no one but the preacher and Jason and I are there. But by god, we need to be there.

[1369]

"I know it is still a long way out, but the 72 hour projection has Rita making landfall between Rockport and Port Lavaca."
In all reality, this is probably closest to the truth! You can not discount the damage that the Galveston area will receive but the news services need to quit saying "it's going to Galveston". This is misleading to most people and might cause others not to evacuate.

I honestly think that the media is saying Galveston/Houston because it is a known city that people can identify with. If they were to say Bay City/Palacios, no one outside of folks on the coast woulod know where they are talking about. Watch, if the track shifts down the coast, the media will start saying Corpus Christi a bunch.

I'm on a jobsite outside of Ingleside, and word around the water cooler is that there is already a voluntary evac order for Port Aransas and Corpus could be later in the day.

I know tomorrow when I leave, I sure won't be heading up 37 if Corpus calls for an evac.

[travis2]

That's where the wedding is scheduled. My family is there, and my fi is from SA.

Most of my wedding guests are evacuating. I know how awful it sounds to be focused on this, but it's been two years, and moving beyond a suicide attempt and cutting ties with family to get to this point. This is something we need to do, and I don't know if I can handle it being pushed back.

I dont' care if no one but the preacher and Jason and I are there. But by god, we need to be there.

Well...given that the current track predictions are heading down coast, you might well want to head out soon. The shit is going to be hitting the fan all along I-10 between Houston and SA. So even if you don't get a hard hit in Houston, the route is going to get hit...

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, have you noticed that the NAM has verified quite well with this storm? I wonder if it is picking up on something the others are missing out on?

[MannyIsGod]

I honestly think that the media is saying Galveston/Houston because it is a known city that people can identify with. If they were to say Bay City/Palacios, no one outside of folks on the coast woulod know where they are talking about. Watch, if the track shifts down the coast, the media will start saying Corpus Christi a bunch.

I'm on a jobsite outside of Ingleside, and word around the water cooler is that there is already a voluntary evac order for Port Aransas and Corpus could be later in the day.

I know tomorrow when I leave, I sure won't be heading up 37 if Corpus calls for an evac.
I'd cut across all the way to 35 if I were you. I had the unpleasent joy of sitting on 37 during the Brett evac. Didn't move worth a damn.

[CosmicCowboy]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 16

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005


the reconnaissance plane will not be in the area of Rita until later
this morning. However...satellite images indicate that the cloud
pattern is typical of an intense hurricane with a clear eye
surrounded by very deep convection. Initial intensity is adjusted
upward to 120 knots at this time. However...objective T-numbers from
both TAFB and the University of Wisconsin CIMSS are peaking near
7.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting winds of near 140 knots. I
will wait for the plane to reach Rita to increase the winds
further...if necessary. The environment is conducive for
strengthening and Rita...as Katrina did...will be crossing The Loop
current or an area of high heat content within the next 12 hours or
so. This would aid the intensification process. Thereafter...the
intensity will be controlled by changes in the eyewall which are
difficult to predict. The heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico is not as favorable as in the area of The Loop current so
slight weakening is anticipated....but Rita is expected to make
landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.


There has been no change in the steering pattern. Rita is moving
westward at 11 knots south of a strong high. As the high moves
eastward...Rita will gradually begin to move toward the west-
northwest and northwest basically toward the Texas coast. The
official forecast is very close to the model consensus and has not
changed from the previous forecast.

Both the GFS and the GFDL suggest that the wind field will expand.
Therefore the forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordinly. On
this track and due to the large wind field associated with Rita...a
Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon or
tonight.


Forecaster Avila




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 21/1500z 24.3n 85.9w 120 kt
12hr VT 22/0000z 24.5n 87.9w 135 kt
24hr VT 22/1200z 25.0n 90.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 23/0000z 25.7n 92.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/1200z 26.6n 94.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 96.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/1200z 32.5n 97.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/1200z 35.5n 97.0w 25 kt...inland

[travis2]

Travis, have you noticed that the NAM has verified quite well with this storm? I wonder if it is picking up on something the others are missing out on?

I don't know what assumptions it uses for its model...but it seems to have projected that ridge to hold up longer than the others, that's for sure...

[travis2]

Manny, you do know where to look for the run status on the models, right?

[1369]

I'd cut across all the way to 35 if I were you. I had the unpleasent joy of sitting on 37 during the Brett evac. Didn't move worth a damn.

What I'll do is head out of here through Bayside/Refugio and then up through Goliad/Yorktown and pick up 87 outside Stockdale and take that into town.

But, I may ride it out here at the job as the plant is looking for folks to stay behind and then do a cold start after the storm passes.

Looking at that model analysis, things might get real interesting down this way.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, no provide me with a link.

I'm just looking at NCEP.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[travis2]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

[MannyIsGod]

Oh bad ass. Thanks Travis!

[Hook Dem]

Copy that I'll be headed to Harlingen rather than SA but I'm hearing from the yolkels that this is going to be alot closer to CC than people think.

I'd like to stay if its not a direct hit but the wife says go I'll go I'm really more scared of my place getting looted than hit with damage.
Bishop...Get out! I was in Corpus in 1970 when Celia hit Corpus. I lived in Annaville and lost the roof off my house. It's not worth it!

[Shelly]

Do you y'all think we need to stock up on items here in SA? My friend's MIL lives in MS about the same distant inland as we are and she said they lost power for 4 days.

[travis2]

Oh bad ass. Thanks Travis!
They have partials up for the 12Z GFS...precip models, anyway. GFS still has it making a turn towards Matagorda Bay...

You pays your money and you takes your chances...

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, look at upper air plots. The 500mb ones are the best because they show the steering currents.

It is coming in a bit further south and west. Not much, but if the next couple of runs do what this one did, Corpus will be much more under the gun.

[sa_butta]

Do you y'all think we need to stock up on items here in SA? My friend's MIL lives in MS about the same distant inland as we are and she said they lost power for 4 days.I was thinking the same thing and wondering why people will be evacuated here, when we may see some serious flooding as well.

[ObiwanGinobili]

just got phone call from my mother inlaw.....

so now the official # of people at my place will be 9..plus the 3 that live here.
2 from clute (my BF and her hubby) under mandatory evac.. they will be here tonight.
7 from victoria - my mom, father, bro's and sis... and my in-laws.... they will be here thursday.

I'm definally making a trip to sav-a-lot ASAP to stock up on thier 29cent canned goods. even if we don;t lose electricity here.... I'm still feeding an Army.

[MiNuS]

Looting...

I don't believe Texas would react like N.O. people did.

[MannyIsGod]

As it stands, the storm would have to make a big shift to the south for us to get really bad things here.

We still have about a 30% chance of sustained TS force winds.

[MannyIsGod]

Looting...

I don't believe Texas would react like N.O. people did.
Please.

[travis2]

Travis, look at upper air plots. The 500mb ones are the best because they show the steering currents.

It is coming in a bit further south and west. Not much, but if the next couple of runs do what this one did, Corpus will be much more under the gun.

Cool, they're up now...they weren't when I made that post...

[sa_butta]

Looting...

I don't believe Texas would react like N.O. people did.Believe it, besides there are people from N.O. here now. But if something of Katrinas proportion happened you can bet there would be some idiots out there.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

You can not discount the damage that the Galveston area will receive but the news services need to quit saying "it's going to Galveston". This is misleading to most people and might cause others not to evacuate.

Galveston is being played up due to the 1900 hurricane and reference to Katrina.

Plus, as well all know by now ;) the northest quadrant is the worst part of it, which even with a shift south would still put Galveston/Htown square in its sights.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, it looks to be at about the same exat landfall point. This time it has it making a sharper turn though.

Instead of a slower degredation of the high, it makes it a later but quicker degridation.

If anything, that High has proven stronger than anticipated. I just keep seeing a more southerly component to this thing, but maybe not.

[Shelly]

Well, I think we're gonna get the bare essentials, just in case. You never know and better to be safe than sorry

[travis2]

Actually, it looks to be at about the same exat landfall point. This time it has it making a sharper turn though.

Instead of a slower degredation of the high, it makes it a later but quicker degridation.

If anything, that High has proven stronger than anticipated. I just keep seeing a more southerly component to this thing, but maybe not.

Agree...the NAM seems to not want to let go of that ridge...the GFS can't seem NOT to let go of that ridge...

[MannyIsGod]

000
Urnt12 Knhc 211600z
Vortex Data Message
A. 21/1517z
B. 24 Deg 11 Min N
85 Deg 42 Min W
C. 700 Mb 2522 M
D. 65 Kt
E. 070 Deg 27 Nm
F. 180 Deg 137 Kt
G. 075 Deg 09 Nm
H. 934 Mb
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ Na
L. Closed Wall
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 Nm
P. Noaa3 Wx18a Rita Ob 07
Max Fl Wind 137 Kt E Quad 1516z

[MannyIsGod]

934 is the new pressure!!! holy shit!!!

[Cant_Be_Faded]

What does that mean

[travis2]

crap...

137KTS = 158 MPH

Now, that's at flight level...I wonder what the surface winds are going to come in at...

[travis2]

What does that mean

The previous pressure was 944MB. This thing is dropping pretty fast...

[MannyIsGod]

137 flight level winds corosponds to about 140mph

So the last estimate was right on.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis, surface is usually .9 of flight level.

But with the pressure drop, you can expect those winds to wind up faster.

[ObiwanGinobili]

Well, I think we're gonna get the bare essentials, just in case. You never know and better to be safe than sorry


:tu exactly!
good idea......btw- water and batteries are allready out of stock in Cuero and Victoria (althouhg wal mart said they'd have water today at 2)... so I'm sure they'll be a run on that stuff here as well.
Probebly tomarrow. so you;d be the smart one to get it today. :princess

[Cant_Be_Faded]

The previous pressure was 944MB. This thing is dropping pretty fast...


And what does that mean? Is lower pressure bad or good..

[j-6]

What was Katrina's lowest...905?

[MannyIsGod]

Katrina's lowest was 902. I doubt we'll see that, but Cat 5 is looking more and more likely. She'll undergo an eye wall replacement sometime soon, then once completed she might make the jump if she's still over the loop current.

[travis2]

And what does that mean? Is lower pressure bad or good..
Bad. It's getting stronger. And 10MB in 3 hrs is a pretty healthy jump.

[travis2]

Travis, surface is usually .9 of flight level.

But with the pressure drop, you can expect those winds to wind up faster.

cool...didn't know that...

[gay abc]

Do you y'all think we need to stock up on items here in SA? My friend's MIL lives in MS about the same distant inland as we are and she said they lost power for 4 days.


i was thinking the same thing shelly - what should we stock up on?

water
candles
batteries
flashlights
oil for oil lamps

what else?


i do have a gas stove/oven for cooking

[easjer]

Welp, they've closed Univ. of Houston and are evac'ing the dorms. Shit.

I know some folks are panicking because of Katrina. But I don't know what to do. We're worried about looters. We're worried about not getting out. We're worried about being stuck on the highway for hours. We're worried about running out of gas.

Shit. Fuck. Shit.

BTW, they are evac'ing the greater Houston area north to Dallas, but lots of folks will head to SA (like us) because we know people there. It's not an official evacuation location of this area (don't know about Corpus).

[Cant_Be_Faded]

jesus christ

[MannyIsGod]

This season is ridiculous. Flat out ridiculous.

[travis2]

Katrina's lowest was 902. I doubt we'll see that, but Cat 5 is looking more and more likely. She'll undergo an eye wall replacement sometime soon, then once completed she might make the jump if she's still over the loop current.
Have you looked at the SST lately?

Over the past 12 hours or so, it looks like the water is warming in Rita's path...coming up from the Bay of Campeche into the main Gulf proper...

I think the Gulf images are the 30°C contour...

http://coastwatch.noaa.gov/interface/most_recent.php?&product=sst&sensor=Imager&offset=32

[1369]

Welp, they've closed Univ. of Houston and are evac'ing the dorms. Shit.

I know some folks are panicking because of Katrina. But I don't know what to do. We're worried about looters. We're worried about not getting out. We're worried about being stuck on the highway for hours. We're worried about running out of gas.

Shit. Fuck. Shit.

BTW, they are evac'ing the greater Houston area north to Dallas, but lots of folks will head to SA (like us) because we know people there. It's not an official evacuation location of this area (don't know about Corpus).

Corpus hasn't ordered anything yet, but they just came over the radio and said school will be closed starting tomorrow for Port Aransas, Aransas Pass, Ingleside and others in the area.

If you're worried easjer, then you should leave as soon as possible.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis.

Go here and look at the TCHP loop. The total heat content of the western gulf has risen over the past few days. Fucking scary.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/gohhp.gif

Here, I'll just post it. See how its going up????

[travis2]

That's just through Monday. Based on what I saw, it's still going up...

[MannyIsGod]

RITA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY WITHIN HOURS
SEVERE THREAT TO COASTAL TEXAS FROM NEAR PORT O'CONNOR
NORTHWARD TO PORT ARTHUR -- LANDFALL IN 70 HOURS

A RECON just arrived - and found a central pressure of 934MB, with a MAX sustained Flight level wind
of 137kts in the east quadrant, implying a surface sustained wind of 135mph. Satellite estimates now indicate
RITA may in fact have reached CAT 5 Intensity -- although this cannot be confirmed until the Aircraft completes
a full sampling of the winds around the entire storm. The Thermal Eye wall temperature gradient is now up
to 10°C - indicate of a strong CAT 4 / borderline CAT 5 hurricane. The 25NM Wide eye is currently located near
24.1N/ 85.80W or 700NM SE of Galveston, TX - and is moving west at 10Kts - slightly slower than 12
hours ago..

Though the storm may or may not have actually attained CAT intensity --based on the current imagery derived
data - and that fact RITA will be spending the next 12-18 hours crossing the Loop Current -- there is no longer
much doubt the storm will become a CAT 5 Hurricane. From that point on -- Rita will likely fluctuate in
intensity as eye wall replacement cycles commence -- but also -- by Thursday, the storm will be moving over
slightly cooler waters -- and the SST analysis shows a serious of 'warm' and 'cool' water pools of water scattered
about the Gulf. Passage over a slightly cooler area of water would no doubt cause some weakening, while the
converse would be true if is moves across a warmer pool of water. However, with the storm moving at a solid
10-12Kts -- and no significant slowdown expected -- the change in intensity may not be as pronounced as
typical -- since the storm is 'on the move' and will continually be moving over still relatively warm surface waters.

The major area of shallow warm water is within 100NM of the Texas coast. This combined with some slight
increase in shear expected during the final 12 hours before landfall -- should drop the WIND INTENSITY down
by 1 full Category. HOWEVER, as we learned from Katrina -- Wind Intensity, used for Categorizing a Hurricane,
doesn't always tell the whole story. Assuming RITA does attain CAT 5 intensity, and stays at that strength,
or close to it -- it will develop a huge CATEGORY 5 storm surge that will strike the Texas coast - regardless of
any wind speed decrease during the final 12 hours before landfall. Officially, Katrina hit the MS Coast as
a strong CAT 3 - but produced a catastrophic Category 5 storm surge damage for a 120 mile stretch of coast
line to the east. Rita may strike with the same CAT 5 storm surge -- but I believe it will cover a somewhat smaller extent
of coastline -- about 50NM - compared to Katrina's 120 mile wide path of utter devastation. But keep in mind
even if the storm does come ashore near Freeport -- the storm surge in Galveston Bay will be severe.

The latest 12Z model runs are clustered very tightly on a landfall between Port O'Conner and Freeport Saturday
morning & the consensus for intensity estimates are for a strong CAT 4. Those living in the coastal area from near
Corpus Christi to Galveston should begin evacuation within the next 24 hours. Those living north of Galveston
to Lake Charles, LA, and from Corpus Christi to Brownsville -- should have a 'Plan' in place in the event the storm
veers off the expected track.

[Ishta]

OH shit...this is REALLY REALLY not good

[travis2]

(a little gallows humor)

I just figured it all out! God is REALLY REALLY PISSED at New Orleans.

We need to tell the evacuees to GO HOME...

*rimshot*

[Cant_Be_Faded]

So the gulf temperature is going up, because of something else, not cuz of the hurricane?

[travis2]

So the gulf temperature is going up, because of something else, not cuz of the hurricane?
It would appear so, yes. Actually, the hurricane would cool the water because of pulling cooler water up to the surface (not to mention cloud cover reducing radiative heating).

[ObiwanGinobili]

(a little gallows humor)

I just figured it all out! God is REALLY REALLY PISSED at New Orleans.

We need to tell the evacuees to GO HOME...

*rimshot*


:lmao
my mom told me that one last night..... and I *almost* posted it like 2x's.
but evetually decided to stay out of the firing range....
:tu but i feel free to :lmao now that you;ve gone and done it! :D

[Cant_Be_Faded]

It would appear so, yes. Actually, the hurricane would cool the water because of pulling cooler water up to the surface (not to mention cloud cover reducing radiative heating).


So now it'll increase even faster...I'm telling you they're controlling the weather....

[CharlieMac]

Jesus Christ. the magnitude of this storm is starting to set in for me. Good luck to you peeps on the coast.

[MannyIsGod]

It is like someone set the clock back a month and we're all reliving Katrina. What the fuck man.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Travis.

Go here and look at the TCHP loop. The total heat content of the western gulf has risen over the past few days. Fucking scary.

Damnit, I told you all this on like page 2 on Monday. Next time us Aggies tell you something, listen :lol

As an aside, this thread cracks me up. It's like a weather geek circle jerk. :lmao

[MannyIsGod]

I can't believe that after telling people there would not be another Katrina, here we are staring down the barrel of another cat 5. Fuck, I'm going to start expecting the worst.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

These must be the end times. if california starts to get catastrophic earthquakes within the next few months, we're screwed

[CharlieMac]

Damnit, I told you all this on like page 2 on Monday. Next time us Aggies tell you something, listen :lol

As an aside, this thread cracks me up. It's like a weather geek circle jerk. :lmao


I like to observe these threads and throw in a quick prediction. I know of a lot of the links posted but a few are completely new to me. I was extremely close to heading to A&M when I graduated HS. I chose to go up north and bang midwestern girls instead. What a huge mistake.

I was going through my moms photo album a few weeks ago, and she has pics of me standing front of the tv while the weather was on motioning the same way the weatherman was. What a nerd.

I called Brownsville at a Cat 4. I was way off.

[CharlieMac]

I can't believe that after telling people there would not be another Katrina, here we are staring down the barrel of another cat 5. Fuck, I'm going to start expecting the worst.

The though of a Cat 5 popping Corpus in the mouth is pretty scary. Then there are the tornados....

[travis2]

Damnit, I told you all this on like page 2 on Monday. Next time us Aggies tell you something, listen :lol

As an aside, this thread cracks me up. It's like a weather geek circle jerk. :lmao

Hey...to be a true gEEk, you have to be an EE... :angel

[CharlieMac]

Mike on KSAT is right. What's amazing is that a little over 24 hours ago Rita wasn't even a hurricane yet.

[travis2]

:lmao
my mom told me that one last night..... and I *almost* posted it like 2x's.
but evetually decided to stay out of the firing range....
:tu but i feel free to :lmao now that you;ve gone and done it! :D

Your mom and I think alike, eh? Great minds... :angel

[Shelly]

My husband was just at Home Depot buying batteries and some other stuff. He said some people were buying plywood.

[Shelly]

Hurricane Local Statement National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 1215 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

...rita A Category 4 Hurricane With Winds Near 140 Mph... ...coastal Flood Watch In Effect For The Upper Texas Coast...

...this Statement Applies To The Residents Of...galveston... Jackson...matagorda...fort Bend...wharton...harris...brazoria... Liberty And Chambers Counties...

...watches/warnings In Effect... A Coastal Flood Watch Has Been Issued For The Upper Texas Coast For Thursday Night.

...current Storm Information...

.location... At 10 Am Cdt...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near Latitude 24.3 North...longitude 85.9 West...or About 675 Miles Southeast Of Freeport Texas.

.movement... Hurricane Rita Was Moving West At 13 Mph. This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours.

.intensity... Maximum Sustained Winds Were Estimated At 140 Mph With Higher Gusts. Rita Is A Dangerous Category 4 And Could Become A Category 5 Hurricane While Over The Central Gulf Later Today Or Tonight.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...

.evacuation Information... For Jackson County... Mandatory Evacuation Has Been Declared For The Entire County.

For Matagorda County... Mandatory Evacuation For The Southern Two Thirds Of The County Will Be In Effect At 6 Pm.

For Galveston And Brazoria Counties...voluntary Evacuation Is In Progress. Mandatory Evacuation Of Nursing Homes And Assisted-living Facilities Is Underway. On Galveston Island... Buses Will Be Available At The Island Community Center On Broadway After 10 Am For Persons With No Other Means Of Transportation. If There Is No Significant Change Of Rita's Track In The Next 24 Hours...a Mandatory Evacuation Of Galveston And Brazoria Counties Is Expected To Begin At 6 Pm Today.

Voluntary Evacuations Are Also In Progress This Evening For Low Lying Areas Of Chambers County... Harris County... And The Cities Of Houston...seabrook And Baytown

Decisions Concerning Evacuations For Other Counties And Communities Will Be Made Later Today.

.school...government...and Hospital Facility Closings... Most Independent School Districts In Galveston...brazoria...and Southern Harris Counties Will Be Closed. In Addition...all Schools In The San Jacinto College District And Brazosport College Will Be Closed. Galveston County Government Facilities Will Also Be Closed Today. The Jamaica Beach Office Of Emergency Management Will Be Closed.

University Of Texas Medical Branch (utmb) In Galveston Will Be Closed. No Medical Care Will Be Available At Utmb Hospital From This Point Forward.

.storm Surge And Tides... Tide Levels Are Currently Running Near Normal Along The Upper Texas Coast. Tide Levels Are Expected To Gradually Begin Rising On Thursday As Swells Associated With Hurricane Rita Begin Propagating Across The Coastal Waters. This Potential Water Level Rise Coupled With The High Tide Cycle Beginning Thursday Evening And Persisting During The Overnight Hours Into Early Friday Morning Will Likely Result In Minor Coastal Flooding Across The Lowest Areas Along The Coast And Adjacent To The Bays. More Significant Coastal Flooding Is Expected To Occur At The Subsequent High Tide Cycle Which Will Begin Friday Evening And Continue Into Saturday Morning.

The Following Are The High Tide Times For Thursday Evening And Early Friday Morning...as Well As The Predicted Water Levels.

Location High Tide Time Expected Water Level Relative To Mean Lower Low Water

Pleasure Pier 937 Pm Cdt Thu 4.5 Feet

Port Bolivar 1123 Pm Cdt Thu 3.7 Feet

Galveston Channel 1109 Pm Cdt Thu 3.7 Feet

San Luis Pass 1100 Pm Cdt Thu 3.5 Feet

Jamaica Beach 147 Am Cdt Fri 3.2 Feet

Morgans Point 930 Am Cdt Fri 3.2 Feet

Eagle Point 303 Am Cdt Fri 3.2 Feet

Freeport 949 Pm Cdt Fri 4.2 Feet

Port Oconnor 451 Am Cdt Fri 3.3 Feet

Clear Lake 514 Am Cdt Fri 3.1 Feet

.wind Impacts... Tropical Storm Force Winds Are Not Expected To Reach The Upper Texas Coast Until Friday Afternoon.

.rainfall... No Significant Rainfall Is Expected Along The Upper Texas Coast Through Thursday.

[Shelly]

Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service:

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO... ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDE RICKSBURG... BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS... BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS... SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY... PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES... CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS 1207 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...EFFECTS FROM DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

AT 10 AM CDT...MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH. RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (39 TO 73 MPH) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HURRICANE FORCE (74 MPH AND GREATER) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CLOSEST TO THE COAST. SOME LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO SECURE LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. TREE TRIMMING MAY ALSO BE IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF LIMB DAMAGE TO HOMES AND AUTOMOBILES. INLAND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IF THE BANDS OF RAINFALL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

PEOPLE RESIDING IN OR TRAVELING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE RITA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.

[MannyIsGod]

They are forcasting TS winds here

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 95. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 86. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 35 and 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

[Ginofan]

I can't believe that after telling people there would not be another Katrina, here we are staring down the barrel of another cat 5. Fuck, I'm going to start expecting the worst.

Same here dude, cept Rita hasn't gotten up to the size (square mileage wise) that Katrina was...and I'm pretty sure the Texas coast will be better prepared for Rita than N.O. was for Katrina...so hopefully alot less deaths and such.

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 211728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 142 kt
G. 036 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 12 C/ 2447 m
J. 26 C/ 2436 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. STADIUM
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z

[boutons]

"were buying plywood."

For San Antonio?
150 storm-depleting miles, 10 hours overland from the coast?

And because the storm is coming from the south, they are going to board up their south-facing windows? :)

[Hook Dem]

Good luck everyone. Nail your asses to the floor!

[MannyIsGod]

They got a pressure of 923mb, and max winds of about 145mph on the surface.

That pressure supports higher wind speeds, but the winds haven't caught up yet. Those winds WILL go up. That storm is borderline Cat 5 right now, before it was even forcast to be cat 4.

I get more and more amazed as the day goes on.

[1369]

Aransas/San Patricio/Calhoun/Kleberg counties are under mandatory evac orders at this time.

Fuck a bunch of staying and helping out the plant, I'll help put it together when I get back next week.

[travis2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 211728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 142 kt
G. 036 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 12 C/ 2447 m
J. 26 C/ 2436 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. STADIUM
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z

WTF?!?!

Another 11MB in less than 2 hours????

[Horry For 3!]

Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service:

LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO... ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDE RICKSBURG... BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS... BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS... SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY... PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES... CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS 1207 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...EFFECTS FROM DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...
I guess it is coming here :bang

[boutons]

what does pressure say about hurricane wind area?

Right now, extends 45 mi from eye vs about 100 mi for Katrina.

SA is 150 miles from the water, 11 or 12 hours for the hurricane to lose energy overland, and at this point, SA is 75 - 100 miles away from the mean storm path.

I don't think SA, or any point 150 mi from the coast, will get anything by TS winds, 40 - 50 mph max. Comments?

Anybody know where to find the wind distribution for Katrina up 150 - 200 mil from the coast?

[travis2]

Manny...been checking up on just how to interpret those reports...

Sections H/I/J/K are not good...

[SpursWoman]

"were buying plywood."

For San Antonio?
150 storm-depleting miles, 10 hours overland from the coast?


You don't think 55mph wind gusts could cause some damage to some windows?

[travis2]

what does pressure say about hurricane wind area?

Right now, extends 45 mi from eye vs about 100 mi for Katrina.

SA is 150 miles from the water, 11 or 12 hours for the hurricane to lose energy overland, and at this point, SA is 75 - 100 miles away from the mean storm path.

I don't think SA, or any point 150 mi from the coast, will get anything by TS winds, 40 - 50 mph max. Comments?

Anybody know where to find the wind distribution for Katrina up 150 - 200 mil from the coast?

TS winds are 39 and up.

Current wind swath is about 225 miles for TS force winds.

[CharlieMac]

Who had the link to that LSU Earthscan lab image of Rita a few days ago? Whats that link again?

[Shelly]

GayABC

Take out some cash and fill up the gas tanks! If power goes out, we can't live by the almighty debit card!

Boutons--the possibility of anything happening here could be slim. But if my power goes out for few days, those baked beans will look mighty tasty.

[boutons]

It could, but I'd like to see the wind history of Katrina 150 mi from the Gulf and 100 miles off-path, before I start spending $$$ and time nailing into my house.

[Ginofan]

Check out the hi-res image of Rita Click it! (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Rita1445z-050921-1kg12.jpg)
Beautiful, in a scary kind of way.

[Ginofan]

It could, but I'd like to see the wind history of Katrina 150 mi from the Gulf and 100 miles off-path, before I start spending $$$ and time nailing into my house.

You can't really compare to Katrina...she weakend significantly before landfall...it doesn't look like Rita has anything to weaken her right now, or so I've been told.

[Hook Dem]

what does pressure say about hurricane wind area?

Right now, extends 45 mi from eye vs about 100 mi for Katrina.

SA is 150 miles from the water, 11 or 12 hours for the hurricane to lose energy overland, and at this point, SA is 75 - 100 miles away from the mean storm path.

I don't think SA, or any point 150 mi from the coast, will get anything by TS winds, 40 - 50 mph max. Comments?

Anybody know where to find the wind distribution for Katrina up 150 - 200 mil from the coast?
My sister just got back from Jackson Mississippi and they had a lot of damage.

[Horry For 3!]

Who expected another hurricane to hit? not me...

[MannyIsGod]

40% right now that we'll get TS force SUSTAINED winds. You get gusts above that in a strong storm, but you dont' get them sustained like this.

I really doubt we'll see hurricane force winds here.

But well, I've doubted a lot of shit, so I won't discount anything at this time.

[MannyIsGod]

Erik, i have the link to that site saved at home but I'm at work. Sorry bud.

[MannyIsGod]

This storm is smaller than Katrina, so it might reach simillar windspeeds even if the pressure doesn't drop as far. The tighter the pressure gradient the faster the wind.

[j-6]

Erik, i have the link to that site saved at home but I'm at work. Sorry bud.


This it?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2005/RITA/

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805_PROB34_F120+gif/145605.gif

[Vashner]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ECI7.JPG Woah baby.. I just woke up.. this storm blowuptuating (jamie foxx line)

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.srcc.lsu.edu/tropical/satelliteimages

[j-6]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

SEP 21 2005 - 12:37PM CDT

The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.

Center Pressure is down to 923mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.

[Vashner]

Holy BEEP....

[SpursWoman]

My sister just got back from Jackson Mississippi and they had a lot of damage.


Guru of Nothing lives in Jackson, Mississippi...and by his account, yeah, there was a lot of damage...and over 1/2 the city without power for a few days....hard to get gasoline...IIRC.

[Horry For 3!]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

SEP 21 2005 - 12:37PM CDT

The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.

Center Pressure is down to 923mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.
:bang

[Vashner]

Hum I bet there will be a Y2K looking run on supplies here in town any moment...

ROFL the dude that owns the corner store near me purchased 2 pallets of chiken soup (like 2000 cans) for Y2K hahaha..

[CharlieMac]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

SEP 21 2005 - 12:37PM CDT

The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.

Center Pressure is down to 923mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.

That's the link J. I was looking for the water vapor satellite to be more specific. Thanks to you and Manny.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Gulf/latest_wv.jpg

[travis2]

Hot off the press at NOAA...

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[SpursWoman]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

SEP 21 2005 - 12:37PM CDT

The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.

Center Pressure is down to 923mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 142KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.


Good God. :wow :wow

[Vashner]

Wait.. I thought they just said CAT 5?

[Horry For 3!]

Hum I bet there will be a Y2K looking run on supplies here in town any moment...

ROFL the dude that owns the corner store near me purchased 2 pallets of chiken soup (like 2000 cans) for Y2K hahaha..
:lmao

[travis2]

Cat 5 boundary is 155 MPH...

[ObiwanGinobili]

shit shit shit shit shitty shit shit....

fuck.

[MannyIsGod]

At this point the debate over strength is academic. She's a fucking monster. Twice in one season is insane.

[Horry For 3!]

Wait.. I thought they just said CAT 5?
Different places, different ideas of what it is. I guess you won't really know?

[j-6]

So after this thing dropped 11 millibars in an unprecedented 105 minutes this morning, then it drops 11 in sixty-five minutes?

WTF?

[ObiwanGinobili]

CNN jsut said it will most likely be a CAT 5 with the 5pm advisory... :depressed

[travis2]

At this point the debate over strength is academic. She's a fucking monster. Twice in one season is insane.
Twice in one season in the same mother****ing place is beyond insane...

[Ginofan]

667
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z

[travis2]

So after this thing dropped 11 millibars in an unprecedented 105 minutes this morning, then it drops 11 in sixty-five minutes?

WTF?
That about covers it, yep...

[travis2]

667
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z

153KTS at FL implies 158 MPH at surface. (using the 0.9 rule of thumb)

H/I/J/K just getting worse and worse...

[Ginofan]

153 kts at flightlevel...so 137.7kts at surface? Which is about 158mph? Is that right? And this is just in the west quadrant, jesus H. christ.

EDITED: Nevermind, thanks Travis :)

[Horry For 3!]

CNN jsut said it will most likely be a CAT 5 with the 5pm advisory... :depressed
I heard that too. I'm watchin CNN right now.

[ObiwanGinobili]

CNN is allready pimpin how Anderson Cooper is going to be riding it out in Texas on the ground.....

i don;t know weather to love this guy or slap him.