Rita and Corpus Christi

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 18

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 21, 2005

...Category five Rita continuing to strengthen over the central
Gulf of Mexico...

a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast
from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning
may be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area Thursday
morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the
Hurricane Watch area... from east of Cameron to Grand Isle
Louisiana... and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast
of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.6 north... longitude 87.2 west or about 570 miles...
915 km... east-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 670 miles...
1080 km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and this
general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Rita is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 897 mb...26.49 inches.
This means Rita is the third most intense hurricane in terms of
pressure in the Atlantic Basin.

Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and
Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those
areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be accompanied by large
waves over the next 24 hours... and residents there could
experience some coastal flooding.

Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas Thursday night
into Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches over the central to Upper Texas coast. Rainfall amounts
of 2 to 24 inches will be possible across southern Louisiana...
including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves
inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches will be
possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma
during Saturday and Sunday.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...24.6 N... 87.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 897 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Jess' family is staying is Houston. We tried to talk them out of it, but they didn't want to leave.

I gues there wasn't enough Katrina coverage because people just don't understand.


I hope they tough it out then. This is absolute madness. When was the last CAT 5 that hit texas? Carla? That shit destroyed houses in victoria due to trees falling down and victoria didnt even get a direct hit or anything

[Horry For 3!]

My mom left Vic. 30 min's ago.
I'm not expecting her to show up here for hours seeing as how he traffic is so bad.
But she has to turn right around and go back to get the rest of the fam..... just driving is gonna take FOREVER.

Meanwhile I havn;t been able to get thru to my BF Randi alllll day. And I've tried calling like 100 times. :(
the plan was that they would leave Clute around 6pm.
I guess I'll find out when/if they get here.
The traffic is horrible here, well in Kenedy and that is a small ass town but its 181.

[midgetonadonkey]

I hate saying this, but I hope it lands north of Corpus. My dad, one of my uncles, and all my stoner friends refuse to leave. I know it's projected to hit north of Corpus but with these damn things, one can never be too sure. All my bastard family and friends have made me worried. They've driven me to drinking.

[Horry For 3!]

My grandparents said the highway from Conroe - Houston, usually takes like an hour max, will take up to 3 hours if not more.

[ObiwanGinobili]

Rita now at 175mph winds

:wow

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

This thread needs some eye candy...

http://blog.jayperkins.com/mt/jayblog/archives/sa091204z05.jpg

Stephanie Abrams, The Weather Channel. :tu

j6...

The only other suggestion I'd have to that is to go 6 north towards Waco, then take Highway 14 when she gets to Calvert and just follow it up all the way into Corsicana.

14 parallels 45, but it will help skip the construction out on 45 that is a pain in the ass (and will be a major bottleneck - one lane for 10 miles!).

She'll have to pick up 45 in Corsicana, but it will skip the bottleneck.

If she goes up to I35 from 6, that whole stretch from Waco until you hit the split in Hillsboro (I35 splits to go to Ft. Worth and Dallas) completely sucks.

When she gets into Southeast Dallas on 45, tell her to take off on I-30 and head west to Ft. Worth. 30 will be a little congested at the area where it intersects 75 and 35 in Dallas, as well as when she gets into Ft. Worth, but that's really about the only alternative I know of.

[ObiwanGinobili]

I hope they tough it out then. This is absolute madness. When was the last CAT 5 that hit texas? Carla? That shit destroyed houses in victoria due to trees falling down and victoria didnt even get a direct hit or anything


yeah.. Carla whipped out a bunch of houses... AND that little square down town between 1st Victoria and Wells Fargo and the Courthouse... I have a postcard with a pic of he damage....

[Ginofan]

:lol AHF, the guys in Masters Blog were all over Stephanie tonight...kinda funny that you mentioned her.

[MannyIsGod]

The track has shifted back to Houston. This one is giving them fits.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W+gif/023809W_sm.gif

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Come on, everyone knew it was going to Houston. God is trying to finish the job after New Orleans ;)

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Possible 30 inches in rain for Dallas. Fuck me, time to buy a boat.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Updated track...

http://www.bubelonia.com/images/Hurricane%20Rita%20ST2(jpg).jpg

[Horry For 3!]

Updated track...

http://www.bubelonia.com/images/Hurricane%20Rita%20ST2(jpg).jpg
That could change tomorrow though.

[Sonia_TX]

My neighbor has 3 daughters... Krista, Katrina and Rita. lol I didn't even think of that until today... those girls are always causing trouble. haha

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

That could change tomorrow though.

Duuuuuuuuuude, were you even paying attention to the picture? :lmao

[Horry For 3!]

Duuuuuuuuuude, were you even paying attention to the picture? :lmao
Yes, I know but i'm talking seriously. I can obviously see there is a Margarita on there.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Who says I'm not? Just trying to bring some humor to the thread. We've got two days before everything is going to hell, might as well enjoy it.

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 18

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2005


Rita has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. A
dropsonde in the eye of Rita around 21/2309z recorded a pressure of
899 mb with a surface wind of 32 kt. Anything below 10 kt is
usually considered a valid pressure. However...the general thumb
rule is to decrease the pressure 1 mb for every 10 kt above that
wind speed. In this case... Rita's central pressure is estimated to
be 897 mb...making it the third most intense hurricane in terms of
pressure for the Atlantic Basin. The last recon pass only indicated
2 reports of 700 mb flight-level winds of 157 kt in the northeast
quadrant. However... ODT values over the past 2 hours have averaged
between t7.3/149 kt and t7.4/152 kt... so the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt. The pressure-wind relationship for an 897
mb pressure is 160 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08. Rita has actually made a
large wobble and slowed to a 285/06 kt motion the past 6 hours.
However...such motion changes...which are not unusual for
explosively deepening tropical cyclones as the inner core wind
field and convective pattern reorganizes...are considered temporary
and Rita is expected to shortly resume a more westward motion. The
18z NHC model guidance is a little more convergent than previous
model runs... with the GFS and GFDL models doing their usual
afternoon eastward shift. Those models now bring Rita across the
Houston-Galveston area in about 72 hours. However...the other
models seem to have stabilized their forecast tracks farther west
with the consensus having shifted a little more to the right. The
official forecast track was also shifted to the right...but not as
far as the GFS/GFDL models...since it now appears that the global
models have a reasonable handle on weakening the mid-level ridge
across Texas and the Gulf Coast based 22/00z upper-air data
indicating 40 meter height falls across this region during the past
24 hours.

The intensity forecast is somewhat problematic. The upper-level
outflow pattern is perfect with a poleward outflow channel
converging into an upper-low northeast of the Lesser Antilles... an
equatorward outflow channel converging into an upper-low over the
Bay of Campeche...and a third weak outflow channel developing to
the northwest. This extremely favorable pattern...combined with
30-31c SSTs...has allowed Rita's explosive deepening to occur. The
eye will be passing over the warm Gulf loop current during the next
12 hours...so some additional strengthening is possible... if an
eyewall replacement cycle does not inhibit the intensification
process. By 36-48 hours...the global models are in good agreement
that the current three outflow channel pattern will be replaced by
mainly a large poleward outflow pattern. This should induce some
steady weakening...but that type of outflow pattern...coupled with
expected low vertical shear conditions...is still sufficient to
support a category 4 hurricane until landfall occurs. Of course...
internal dynamics also play a role in what the intensity of a
hurricane will be... and we have no skill in forecasting eyewall
replacement cycles beyond about 6-12 hours...at best. The intensity
forecast is similar to the trend of the SHIPS model...only slightly
higher after 24 hours due to lower vertical shear indicated by the
NOGAPS...Canadian...UKMET...and ECMWF models.

Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 22/0300z 24.6n 87.2w 150 kt
12hr VT 22/1200z 24.9n 88.7w 155 kt
24hr VT 23/0000z 25.5n 90.5w 150 kt
36hr VT 23/1200z 26.3n 92.4w 145 kt
48hr VT 24/0000z 27.5n 94.2w 135 kt
72hr VT 25/0000z 31.0n 96.4w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 26/0000z 33.5n 96.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 27/0000z 35.0n 96.5w 25 kt...dissiapting inland

[Cant_Be_Faded]

yeah.. Carla whipped out a bunch of houses... AND that little square down town between 1st Victoria and Wells Fargo and the Courthouse... I have a postcard with a pic of he damage....


that was back in the early 60's, my mom said it was the single scariest moment of her life. the house right next to hers was totally destroyed, yet theirs was hardly messed up. luckily noone was killed, at least not in their neighborhood.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

This retired Professor of Atmospherical Sciences or something like that, said that in 1955 (i think) there were 2 CAT 4's that hit NO and Houston. Weird, huh?

[Shelly]

This hurricane is very confusing.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn, think about how strong this is right now. They're going to get some phenomenal readings after this thing goes through the loop current intensification.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm waiting for the new GFS. It should be out in an hour. Hopefully that will give us a better picture of just what is going on with this storm.

They should have a plane in the storm sometime around midnight as well. It probably has another 12 hours of time in which it can increase then it should start a shallow decline.

[MannyIsGod]

It is currently in the loop current. It will exit it in about 12 hours.

[NeoConIV]

Just got off the phone with my Dad. He lives right on the water in Aransas Pass. He'll be in tomorrow. He's already planning on his boat and house to be sayonara.

[midgetonadonkey]

The dude on Weather Channel just said if it's a direct hit on Galveston, it would flood 75 miles inland.

[John T]

Do you guys know anywhere I can look to find out about traffic/evacuation routes/etc.? I'm interested in I-10 between Seguin and here.

On a positive note, John's nursing home in Seguin will have 14 new patients by midnight tonight, from the coast. It looks like everyone is pretty prepared for this!

Thanks, Carie

[1369]

Carie, try this:

http://www.dot.state.tx.us/txdot.htm

[Cant_Be_Faded]

This shit is too fucking depressing. I'm gonna get lit and watch my tapes of the Phoenix series. Night, all.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

He's already planning on his boat and house to be sayonara.

I've always wondered about this. Why don't people pull their boats out and get them the hell out of there?


John T -

I don't know how up to date they will keep it, here is Texas Dept. of Public Safety's traffic info./highway status site...

http://www.dot.state.tx.us/hcr/main.htm

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

damnit 1369...

[John T]

Thanks guys!

[Manu20]

Manny did the latest NAM model already came out? It usually comes out earlier than the GFS but the 00z run is from last night.

[hussker]

Song from Lovely "Rita" METEoRology Maid

Galveston, oh Galveston, I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she's crying
Before I watch your sea birds flying in the sun
At Galveston, at glbbb,glbbbbbb, glbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

Remember Sept 8, 1900. Looks like a repeat in one FUN town! :(

[Manu20]

This is the latest GFS run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_060s.gif

[midgetonadonkey]

Song from Lovely "Rita" METEoRology Maid

Galveston, oh Galveston, I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she's crying
Before I watch your sea birds flying in the sun
At Galveston, at glbbb,glbbbbbb, glbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

Remember Sept 8, 1900. Looks like a repeat in one FUN town! :(

Nice. Morbid, but nice.

[hussker]

http://www.1900storm.com/

[hussker]

This is the latest GFS run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p06_060s.gif

If I stare at that long enough, I think I can see John Lennon! (jk) :smokin

[1369]

Here is one of the other sites I like to check out during hurricane season:

National Data Buoy Center (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/)

This information is from 1600 hours today, but check out the change in wave height (from station 42001 in the western gulf map)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wave.php?station=42001&meas=sght&uom=E

[MannyIsGod]

The NAM has been out, they just haven't changed the date. The model information is for the new run.

The GFS is coming out as I type this and the move has been to the east. It actually has landfall around beaumont port arthur.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

http://tabs.gerg.tamu.edu/Tglo/

Texas Automated Buoy System, good link for data.

[MannyIsGod]

Even though the GFS is bullish to the east, I think the tracks right to the west of Houston are right on. Unless this storm starts turning to the north right away, the GFS will have to shift to the west more.

[Manu20]

The NAM has been out, they just haven't changed the date. The model information is for the new run.

Speaking of the NAM this is the latest run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_p06_066s.gif

[MannyIsGod]

The last GFDL just came out and it puts the storm right on Houston.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Next NHC advisory due out any minute.....

[MannyIsGod]

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHT FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

There you go AHF

[infinite styles]

I just got off the phone with my old college roommate who lives in Houston and he was stuck in traffic. He left at 9pm and at 12 he was still trying to get onto 290 to Austin. But I'm just glad he's gonna be safe.

[Nbadan]

Free Housing!!

http://www.hurricanehousing.org/res...705&distance=50

For anyone who is looking for a place to evacuate out of the Houston or the Coastal region. It's sponsored by moveon.org so you'll probably get to smoke and drink more than staying with your right-winger in-laws, no promises though ..... but seriously, we all know Rita is a monster. Please pass this link along to anyone in serious need.

[Slomo]

Your link is wrong.

Try this: http://www.hurricanehousing.org/

[Nbadan]

Your link is wrong.

Try this: http://www.hurricanehousing.org/

Thanka!

[Vashner]

The latest track has moved about 50 miles east.. dead on Houston.

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 19a


Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on September 22, 2005

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 25.2 north...longitude 88.3 west or about 490 miles
southeast of Galveston Texas and about 595 miles east-southeast of
Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 170 mph with higher
gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category
five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A slow weakening trend
is forecast but Rita is expected to reach the coast late Friday or
early Saturday as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by a hurricane
hunter aircraft was 907 mb...26.78 inches.

Tides are currently running about 1 foot above normal along the
Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina.
Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
some coastal flooding.

Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas tonight into
Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches from the
central Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches will be possible elsewhere across southern Louisiana
...Including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves
inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches will be
possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma
during Saturday and Sunday.

Repeating the 7 am CDT position...25.2 N... 88.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...170
mph. Minimum central pressure... 907 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

Looks like she leveled out and will be going through an eyewall replacement cycle sometime soon.

[spurschick]

I know all the models have it still heading towards Texas, but it looks to me like it keeps jogging more North - straight towards New Orleans. I'm no meteorologist, but what are the possibilities that the eye could pass over Louisiana instead of Texas?

[travis2]

I know all the models have it still heading towards Texas, but it looks to me like it keeps jogging more North - straight towards New Orleans. I'm no meteorologist, but what are the possibilities that the eye could pass over Louisiana instead of Texas?

There's always a chance...never say never....

[travis2]

Manny...despite what the update panel says, the NAM 06Z is current. The dates on the graphics show this.

The NAM 12Z will kick off in about an hour.

I think both of them are in the dice-rolling stage at this point...:drunk


edit...ignore my update comment...I misread your earlier post. Need more coffee...

[Vashner]

New Orleans would be the best place to hit .. it's empty and already destroyed and earmarked for rebuild money...

[MannyIsGod]

Vash, I hate to say it but I agree. Looks like it is coming right up the border though.

Thankfully she's started her decline. The last sat images don't look nearlly as impressive.

[Shelly]

New Orleans would be the best place to hit .. it's empty and already destroyed and earmarked for rebuild money...

My husband said this also.

[Shelly]

Manny, what's in store for SA then? Wind?

[SpursWoman]

Manny, what's in store for SA then? Wind?


Probably not much of anything except maybe a little rain is what it looks like. So much for our new roofs. http://www.ezboard.com/images/emoticons/ohwell.gif :lol

[MannyIsGod]

The last few GFS runs all meander the remanents back over Texas. Not good.

[Shelly]

Probably not much of anything except maybe a little rain is what it looks like. So much for our new roofs. http://www.ezboard.com/images/emoticons/ohwell.gif :lol

Damn! :lol

[SpursWoman]

The last few GFS runs all meander the remanents back over Texas. Not good.


But isn't it more toward Dallas?

I wouldn't count anything out though...just to be safe, I'm going home tonight and doing a shit-load of laundry. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

no, the GFS spreads themoisture out over Texas, we'd get rain out of that.

But as for the actual landfall? That far east we won't get anything but a change in the direction of the wind to out of the north. Not much, not even rain unless the remannets shift west.

[travis2]

But isn't it more toward Dallas?

I wouldn't count anything out though...just to be safe, I'm going home tonight and doing a shit-load of laundry. :lol

No, GFS actually has the remnants do a hook pattern and come right over SA around the middle of next week...

[MannyIsGod]

Seriously though, there are indications that it is going to slow down quite a bit on the way to the coast and possibly stall off the coast. That might be a good thing. If this thing slows down, the water it is going over should not (I say should not because they shouldn't have supported the 3rd strongest hurricane to begin with, take it for what it is worth) support a Cat4 or even Cat3 storm. The slower it goes, the more it will bring up colder water from lower depths as well.

Interesting as hell.

I think it has peaked as well. The last vortex has pressure up to 907, which is a significant rise even if the pressure in itself is still ridiculously low.

[travis2]

Seriously though, there are indications that it is going to slow down quite a bit on the way to the coast and possibly stall off the coast. That might be a good thing. If this thing slows down, the water it is going over should not (I say should not because they shouldn't have supported the 3rd strongest hurricane to begin with, take it for what it is worth) support a Cat4 or even Cat3 storm. The slower it goes, the more it will bring up colder water from lower depths as well.

Interesting as hell.

I think it has peaked as well. The last vortex has pressure up to 907, which is a significant rise even if the pressure in itself is still ridiculously low.


Let's hope so...but let's wait and see what happens as the day heats up, too...

Also looks like it's leveling off a bit back to the west...at least, based on the last few satellite frames...

[Ginofan]

Is it possible after she completes her EWRC (whenever that may be) that she could strengthen again?

[KEDA]

And the heat of the day will warm the gulf water a tad bit, no?

[travis2]

Is it possible after she completes her EWRC (whenever that may be) that she could strengthen again?

I've heard the term...but I haven't read up on what it is. I may be a weather geek, but Manny is in a different geekness area code...:lol

[Shelly]

But isn't it more toward Dallas?

I wouldn't count anything out though...just to be safe, I'm going home tonight and doing a shit-load of laundry. :lol


:lmao

I was thinking the same thing!!!!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Manny, what's in store for SA then? Wind?

A lot of wind generated by everyone slapping their foreheads at the panic buying spree they went on yesterday :lol

[travis2]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html

"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).

[SWC Bonfire]

It is unbelievable the amount of traffic that went by my house on 90 Alt yesterday, last night, and this AM. The 4-way stop in downtown Belmont, TX was backed up clear to my driveway this AM (about 1/2 mile) - luckily I was going the other direction.

[CosmicCowboy]

EWRC is where the eye starts to tighten up and bands of thunderstorms form further out...these storms then tend to gravitate to the center typically robbing energy on the way and "replace" the existing eye wall...

This usually (but not always) weakens the storm...

[travis2]

Here's another article from USAToday, referencing the FAQ I just posted...

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2003-11-15-eyewall-replacement_x.htm

Answers: How hurricanes replace their eyewalls

By Chris Cappella, USATODAY.com

Q: What is the hurricane eyewall replacement cycle?

http://images.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/andrew-radar.jpg
Radar image of Hurricane Andrew's eyewall - the red donut - coming ashore in South Florida Aug. 24, 1992.
National Hurricane Center

A: To understand what an eyewall replacement cycle is you must first learn about a hurricane's eyewall.

Hurricanes are made up of organized bands of thunderstorms and heavy rain that spiral inward toward a calm center. Each successive band closer to that center — the hurricane's "eye" — has progressively stronger winds than the next band out. The final tightly spiraling band around the center forms a complete ring around the eye in well-developed hurricane.This ring of thunderstorms is the hurricane's eyewall. It contains a hurricane's strongest winds.

For reasons scientists are still trying to understand, most intense hurricanes — those with steady winds blowing faster than 110 mph — eventually form concentric eyewalls. That is, a second eyewall will form outside the original one, surrounding it.

Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division says this occurs when spiraling bands outside the eyewall join together to create the second eyewall.

An eyewall replacement cycle occurs when the outer eyewall weakens the inner eyewall by robbing it of "needed moisture and momentum," he writes in the National Hurricane Center's Frequently Asked Questions about hurricanes guide. Without these necessary ingredients to grow, the inner eyewall will collapse. The outer eyewall then becomes the dominant eyewall, even though it's larger, and the replacement cycle is nearly complete.

The final phase of the cycle is for the new, larger eyewall to begin to contract. As this happens, any weakening that had occurred when the inner eyewall was replaced is almost always regained as the new eyewall contracts.

In some cases, Landsea writes, a hurricane coming out of an eyewall replacement cycle can be even stronger. This is what happened with Hurricane Andrew as it was nearing the Florida coast. It was at its strongest at landfall, right at the end of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Landsea notes that the discovery of eyewall replacement cycles in hurricanes contributed to ending Project Stormfury - the 1961 to 1983 government experiment to try to weaken hurricanes.

He says that the project's goal of "seeding" an outer ring of thunderstorms within a hurricane to cause that ring to grow at the expense of the thunderstorms in the eyewall is exactly "what was happening frequently as a natural part of hurricane dynamics."

You can read Landsey's complete answer on eyewall replacement cycles (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html) in NHC's Hurricane FAQ.

Also, learn much more about Project Stormfury (http://www.usatoday.com/weather/huricane/science/wstormfury.htm) by reading a USATODAY.com story by Jack Williams, USA TODAY's weather editor.

[Ginofan]

I've heard the term...but I haven't read up on what it is. I may be a weather geek, but Manny is in a different geekness area code...:lol
:lol

Well I guess it all just depends on when she does get the cycle going...it would be better if was closer to landfall, but now that Manny said something about stalling would that matter even though she will weaken from the cool water she is stirring up?

[MannyIsGod]

She could strengthen at anytime, but if you look at the images you'll see the western side of the storm simply doesn't have the look it did yesterday. There is increased shear. The perfect conditions that allowed her to get that strong are gone, and while the new track takers her over the loop current for a longer time, I would imagine her peak is behind us. I don't know whenthe next RECON flight is in there, but they have an upper air pane getting info right now.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, shes tracking further north than the NHC track. The next model runs should be really interesting.

[Flea]

Probably not much of anything except maybe a little rain is what it looks like. So much for our new roofs. http://www.ezboard.com/images/emoticons/ohwell.gif :lol


:lol I was already planning on it. Darn, we really need one too.

[travis2]

Also, shes tracking further north than the NHC track. The next model runs should be really interesting.
We should see the 12-hour projection out of NAM in about 20 minutes...and then about every 10 minutes after that...

[CosmicCowboy]

I was getting coffee at the Exxon this morning and all these people were desperately running in and buying up bottled water and batteries...I was like...WTF? Don't you know we are 200+ miles west of the eye? They must have watched too much CNN last night...

[spurster]

It is unbelievable the amount of traffic that went by my house on 90 Alt yesterday, last night, and this AM. The 4-way stop in downtown Belmont, TX was backed up clear to my driveway this AM (about 1/2 mile) - luckily I was going the other direction.
My sister's coming to SA on that road. Good to hear that it's not completely locked up at least.

[Flea]

I have some friends in Spring, Tx and they don't know what to do. They are stuck because of all the traffic. They might try to head out this evening.

[CosmicCowboy]

I've got relatives in from Baytown and Port A both...plus 2 horses, 4 dogs, and 18 cats...

[Flea]

I've got relatives in from Baytown and Port A both...plus 2 horses, 4 dogs, and 18 cats...


So where are you staying? :lol

[sa_butta]

I was getting coffee at the Exxon this morning and all these people were desperately running in and buying up bottled water and batteries...I was like...WTF? Don't you know we are 200+ miles west of the eye? They must have watched too much CNN last night...My mother in law was telling me that the HEB by her house ran out of bottled water. And she is one of the people that is freaking out over this thing.

[SWC Bonfire]

I've got relatives in from Baytown and Port A both...plus 2 horses, 4 dogs, and 18 cats...

Cats are expendible. :lol

[Sapphire]

My son and I left Baytown yesterday afternoon at 3, and we pulled into SA last night at 11. We were stop n go all the way to Schulenburg, then it started to thin out a bit. Our top speed was about 45! Oh well, we made it safe and now it's just a waiting game--hopefully I will have a home and a job to return to. I keep waiting for Manny's updates--he is starting to give me some hope about it weakening.

[MannyIsGod]

This thing is turning more and more north. I really think she might stall. BUT, if she keeps turning north, she'll head straight for the warmest part of the loop current. If she makes that patch of water, anything goes.

[Flea]

My mother in law was telling me that the HEB by her house ran out of bottled water. And she is one of the people that is freaking out over this thing.

I bought two 24 packs but we usually buy them anyway. I saw people with a lot more though.

[boutons]

At 9:30 last night, HEB/Austin highway twice as many registers open as normal.
Some people have no sense in their common sense.

I think it demonstrates how easily people, like rats in an experimental cage, can be manipulated to obtain certain reactions, like spending, voting, sending money, by marketers, by politicians, religious hustlers, etc. They yield their free will and intelligence, autonomy to an external programming entity. Robots executing somebody else's voting/spending program, enhanced by the monkey-see-monkey-do, herd-of-sheep behavior.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005264go.jpg

[sa_butta]

I bought two 24 packs but we usually buy them anyway. I saw people with a lot more though.I bought a six pack of beer last night:lol

[Flea]

My son and I left Baytown yesterday afternoon at 3, and we pulled into SA last night at 11. We were stop n go all the way to Schulenburg, then it started to thin out a bit. Our top speed was about 45! Oh well, we made it safe and now it's just a waiting game--hopefully I will have a home and a job to return to. I keep waiting for Manny's updates--he is starting to give me some hope about it weakening.


Glad you are safe and I hope your home stays safe.

I love the updates on here. I check here more than I do the NHC.

[MannyIsGod]

she's right over the edge of the hottest part of the Gulf. It is almost as if this storm has a mind of her own and knows where to get the best environment. WTF man.

[Flea]

I bought a six pack of beer last night:lol


I also bought a lot of limeade.....for Margaritas ofcourse. :lol

[sa_butta]

Glad you are safe and I hope your home stays safe.

I love the updates on here. I check here more than I do the NHC.Manny=Weather God.

[sa_butta]

So are they anticipating anything further for N.O?

[MannyIsGod]

Manny=Weather God.
Manny=obsessed. :lol

Its 9am, I'm not working the rest of the week. I should be in freaking bed!

[ObiwanGinobili]

Mom pulled in sometime last night. ( i was asleep)
unloaded the dog, my baby brother and a bunch of stuf thats against the wall i nmy dinning room.
then she took off back to vic for everyone else.
I can't get thru to them so don;t know if they;ve left and are on thier way or what.
& Brian is still asleep, so it must've been late.... but i;ve got to wake him up soon to take his epilepsy meds.

[sa_butta]

Manny=obsessed. :lol

Its 9am, I'm not working the rest of the week. I should be in freaking bed!What times do you work?

[travis2]

she's right over the edge of the hottest part of the Gulf. It is almost as if this storm has a mind of her own and knows where to get the best environment. WTF man.

I think you're right on that one...

I'm tellin' ya...check out the last couple of satellite frames...looks like she's starting to level off westward again...following that finger of warm water maybe?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

she's right over the edge of the hottest part of the Gulf. It is almost as if this storm has a mind of her own and knows where to get the best environment. WTF man.

Everyone knows that Bush is steering this thing with his weather maker.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like her weaker sister Katrina did, will still bring a Category 5 level storm surge along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 20 - 25 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont will be inundated, and the flood waters will reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983.

[SpursWoman]

At 9:30 last night, HEB/Austin highway twice as many registers open as normal.
Some people have no sense in their common sense.

I think it demonstrates how easily people, like rats in an experimental cage, can be manipulated to obtain certain reactions, like spending, voting, sending money, by marketers, by politicians, religious hustlers, etc. They yield their free will and intelligence, autonomy to an external programming entity. Robots executing somebody else's voting/spending program, enhanced by the monkey-see-monkey-do, herd-of-sheep behavior.


Oh, wow....User was at the exact HEB at that exact time.... :wow :lol

Maybe people watched too much of the shit that happened in New Orleans and don't want themselves & their families put in a similar situation? Or did that not really happen? It's always better to err on the side of caution. Water & batteries and non-perishable food is something that can be always used.

How many dead bolts do you currently have on your door? :lol :spin

[MannyIsGod]

Hey man, Boutons never irrationaly reacts to anything. Never.

[Hook Dem]

I think you're right on that one...

I'm tellin' ya...check out the last couple of satellite frames...looks like she's starting to level off westward again...following that finger of warm water maybe?
I think this is an important point Travis. No one should turn their back on this thing yet. I know that the night before Celia in 1970, they had it going to the same place as this one. I woke up the next morning and everything had shifted back down the coast and Corpus got a direct hit. This thing is giving the NHC fits and is not behaving well. I started noticing last night that they were not issuing updates as often as they should have. This tells me that they just can't be certain. Stay tuned.

[travis2]

I would expect to see some updates from the flights pretty soon. If I read the TCPODs correctly, right now there should be 2 A/C in the area...one high, one low...

[MannyIsGod]

They have a fix due at 10 Travis, so we'll know something then.

[MannyIsGod]

Hook, you're right about the fits. Everytime we get her nailed down she squirms and throws everything through a loop.

[travis2]

They have a fix due at 10 Travis, so we'll know something then.

Yeah, but they should post the VORTEX before that, right?

I'm impatient, damnit! :pctoss :lol

[MannyIsGod]

lol, we'll know something as they head in, but the VORTEX will come in after that.

[MannyIsGod]

You can follow this link once they start flying in

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2005/recon.shtml

[MannyIsGod]

Hey Travis, are you watching the NAM shift back south? This storm is giving me a headache.

[travis2]

Just started looking at it...had to refresh a bunch to make sure I had the current set (right now I've got it current out to 48 hours)

[Ginofan]

Can you say "WTF! (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png)"

[sa_butta]

Can you say "WTF! (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png)"Im glad we are all on the same page here:depressed

[travis2]

NAM has it coming in at Matagorda in 48 hours...

*sigh*

[Shelly]

Can you say "WTF! (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png)"

Indeed!

[CosmicCowboy]

Can you say "WTF! (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png)"

This thing is crazy...It's rare to have this much disagreement in the models this close to landfall...

[SpursWoman]

Maybe instead of Crabby Jacks there should be a Where-The-Fuck-is-this-thing-going-watching party.

That map was fucked up.

:fro :wow :lol

[SpursWoman]

NAM has it coming in at Matagorda in 48 hours...

*sigh*


Chris has an office pool going ... that's where he picked. :lol

[sa_butta]

Maybe instead of Crabby Jacks there should be a WhereTheFuck-is-this-thing-going-watching party.

That map was fucked up.

:fro :wow :lolWe can meet up at Manny's with all of his maps and grids. Ill bring some beer.

[Ginofan]

Maybe instead of Crabby Jacks there should be a Where-The-Fuck-is-this-thing-going-watching party.

That map was fucked up.

:fro :wow :lol

:lol This storm was my reasoning for not going to the GTG on Friday anyway (wanted to stay in and watch the landfall).

[travis2]

NAM is now current to 60 hours...

[samikeyp]

At 9:30 last night, HEB/Austin highway twice as many registers open as normal.

At 10p the HEB at Jones Maltsberger and 1000 Oaks last night, it was still crowded and the shelves were picked pretty clean. I don't think people are panicking as Boutons would indicate but it would make sense that if we were going to get a lot of rain, as was forecast last night, people would shop now so they wouldn't have to this weekend. As it is, we are not going to get much if anything from the storm now.

[samikeyp]

We can meet up at Manny's with all of his maps and grids. Ill bring some beer.

I'll bring some snacks! :)

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn...Matagorda puts a 22-25 foot storm surge over Galveston Island. The highest point of the island is 17 feet.

[Hook Dem]

NAM has it coming in at Matagorda in 48 hours...

*sigh*
Travis...I'm gonna say it. The NHC knee jerked last night and this morning and shifted the forecast track to the Houston area in order to get that area evacuated because of high population. Now that they have that underway, they can be realistic and report the truth. I think Matagorda Bay is the realistic point at which it will come in, Have said this all along. We will see. One thing we have learned is that this storm is an animal that defies the rules and sets it's own steering currents. I also think the two models that have it drifting southwestward after going inland, can not be ignored. May be bad for San Antonio afterall.

[samikeyp]

Damn...Matagorda puts a 22-25 foot storm surge over Galveston Island. The highest point of the island is 17 feet.

and the sea wall is 15. ouch.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis...I'm gonna say it. The NHC knee jerked last night and this morning and shifted the forecast track to the Houston area in order to get that area evacuated because of high population. Now that they have that underway, they can be realistic and report the truth. I think Matagorda Bay is the realistic point at which it will come in, Have said this all along. We will see. One thing we have learned is that this storm is an animal that defies the rules and sets it's own steering currents. I also think the two models that have it drifting southwestward after going inland, can not be ignored. May be bad for San Antonio afterall.
The NWS did what it did because the models were moving EAST of Houston last night. The NAM has shifted back to Matagorda Bay, but we have yet to see the GFS 12z run which will give a lot more insight.

I agree about the possible drift back into central Texas. This is really hard storm to forcast becasue of all of the variables involved. Scary shit.

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 20


Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 22, 2005


...Rita expected to weaken slightly but forecast to make landfall as
a dangerous hurricane...
...A Hurricane Warning has been issued...

at 10 am CDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Port
O'Connor Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana
east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...a tropical storm watch has been issued from
north of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the
Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south
of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern
coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 25.4 north...longitude 88.7 west or about 460 miles...740
km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 445 miles...715 km...
southeast of Port Arthur Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 36
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 165 mph...270
km/hr... with higher gusts. Rita is a category five hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight weakening is forecast during
the next 24 hours but Rita is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
Tides are currently running about 1 foot above normal along the
Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina.
Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
some coastal flooding.

Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum 15
inch total are possible along the path of Rita particularly over
southeast Texas and western Louisiana. In addition...rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana
including New Orleans. Based on the forecast track...rainfall
totals in excess of 25 inches are possible after Rita moves inland.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...25.4 N... 88.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165
mph. Minimum central pressure... 907 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila


Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 20


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 22, 2005



Rita appears to have reached its peak intensity during the past
12 hours. Hurricanes typically do not maintain such high intensity
for a long time. Initial intensity estimate is 145 knots. Although
some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or
two...due to eyewall replacement cycles...an overall gradual
weakening trend should take place. This weakening trend is based on
lower oceanic heat content along the forecast track and increasing
shear. Neverthereless...Rita is expected to make landfall as a
dangerous hurricane of at least a category three intensity.
Rita has been moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 8
knots. A strong high pressure system currently centered over
northern Texas/Oklahoma is expected to shift eastward allowing Rita
to take a more northwesterly and northerly track. The eastward
shift of the high is forecast by all global models...resulting in
track guidance consistently turning the hurricane toward the
northwest and north toward the Upper-Texas or the western Louisiana
coasts. After landfall...steering currents are expected to weaken
and the cyclone could meander for a couple of days in the vicinity
of northeastern Texas...producing heavy rains.
Based on the forecast track and wind radii...hurricane warnings have
been issued at this time from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan City
Louisiana. Tropical storm warnings are in effect on either side of
the Hurricane Warning.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1500z 25.4n 88.7w 145 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 25.8n 89.9w 140 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 26.9n 91.6w 130 kt
36hr VT 24/0000z 28.2n 93.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 24/1200z 30.0n 94.5w 100 kt...inland
72hr VT 25/1200z 33.0n 95.0w 45 kt...inland
96hr VT 26/1200z 34.0n 95.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 27/1200z 34.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland

[MannyIsGod]

66 hour NAM is updated Travis. Shows the high pressure building around the storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_072l.gif

and then drifting west right over this area. I won't give this specific scenario any credence untill I see it for several runs. The NAM has flip flopped too much recently. I'm reallyintersted in the GFS now.

[travis2]

72 hour is also up...I think you should find it interesting...:wow

edit...n/m...really need to read the entire post...:lol

[travis2]

We should have landfall products out of GFS in about an hour...

[xrayzebra]

Damn...Matagorda puts a 22-25 foot storm surge over Galveston Island. The highest point of the island is 17 feet.

CC, they are saying 50 foot storm surge, if it remains as present strength. :depressed

[SpursWoman]

I've lived here all of my life and I finally broke down and looked these places up on a map....

http://www.texasoutside.com/images/maps/bwbigcoastal.GIF




:oops :lol

[SWC Bonfire]

CC, they are saying 50 foot storm surge, if it remains as present strength. :depressed

That doesn't sound likely. But there will be a lot of areas flooded from whatever surge comes ashore, even if it's only 5-10 ft.

[MannyIsGod]

Just so you guys know what is going on in these plots. The storm comes ashore, but then high pressure builds in EVERY DIRECTION around the storm. If you look to the Pacific, you see a trof developing. That would swing east, then move the storm out, but not after it sits directly over south texas for days.

What would you see if this happens?

98/2002 all over again.

The GFS is has trended this way, and the NAM is now donig the same. We need a more consistent set of runs to say this is true, but it really is very scary for San Antonio.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_078l.gif

[MannyIsGod]

A 50 foot storm surge is basically impossible. The unconfirmed record breaking surge from Katrina was 28 feet.

22-25 feet sounds very likely just east of the eye wherever this storm comes ashore.

[SWC Bonfire]

I am having a bunch of black refugees evacuated as we speak - I'm moving my brangus cows up to a pen behind the house. :lol

[CosmicCowboy]

don't know who "they" are but if I had to guess it was a bimbo with a microphone. No way it will be a 50 foot surge.

[travis2]

yeah, I just saw that one too...

All 3 BAM models are showing that hook pattern too...just different spots for the turn...

This is nuts...

[MannyIsGod]

The BAMM models can't handle a storm like this, but the simple fact that more models are jumping on this consensus scares me. If the GFS continues the trend again, I'm going to be very fucking worried.

[Shelly]

SW I had to look these areas up also. :lol I've been here 8 years and I still talk about cities in CA and assume everyone knows where I'm talking about :oops

[boutons]

"Boutons would indicate"

Did I say "panic"?
Did I say "irrational"?
I saw people, twice as many as normal the clerk said, shopping calmly at 9:30 at night, cleaning out the tuna shelves, the water section, etc as if San Antonio were Palacios and as if SAWS, if it were even able to pump after both the entire South TX electrical grid and the SAWS generators went down, were pumping out E.coli.

[travis2]

The BAMM models can't handle a storm like this, but the simple fact that more models are jumping on this consensus scares me. If the GFS continues the trend again, I'm going to be very fucking worried.

NAM is done...

GFS is started...

And I'm not getting a lick of work done... :oops :lol

[j-6]

I am having a bunch of black refugees evacuated as we speak - I'm moving my brangus cows up to a pen behind the house. :lol

:lol

It's evacuees, remember?

[Shelly]

:lol

It's evacuees, remember?

I saw someone on the news last night and she politely reminded us that she was an evacuee and not a refugee.

[xrayzebra]

don't know who "they" are but if I had to guess it was a bimbo with a microphone. No way it will be a 50 foot surge.

CC, I thought I had read the story in the E-N this morning, tried finding it again, so I could put the link. I know I thought it was high too, but I did
read it right, I will keep looking and see if I can find the story again, so much
stuff in E-N this morning hard to go back and find one sentence.

[SpursWoman]

SW I had to look these areas up also. :lol I've been here 8 years and I still talk about cities in CA and assume everyone knows where I'm talking about :oops


I get confused on where they all are in relation to each other ... all I know is: Go 37 or 181 south and eventually you'll get to Corpus, just follow the signs. Go I10 East and it runs right into Houston.

But I could probably give you the latitude & longitude for every damn Target & HEB in the state. :lol

[Shelly]

I get confused on where they all are in relation to each other ... all I know is: Go 37 or 181 south and eventually you'll get to Corpus, just follow the signs. Go I10 East and it runs right into Houston.

But I could probably give you the latitude & longitude for every damn Target & HEB in the state. :lol

Why would we need to know anything else?? :lol

[gay abc]

I've lived here all of my life and I finally broke down and looked these places up on a map....

http://www.texasoutside.com/images/maps/bwbigcoastal.GIF




:oops :lol


i have a sister in ingleside and my 83yo mother lives in corpus - as of last night they didn't want to evacuate :wtf - i told them i wasn't well enough yet to drive down there and do a "search and rescue" on them :rolleyes

[SpursWoman]

"Boutons would indicate"

Did I say "panic"?
Did I say "irrational"?
I saw people, twice as many as normal the clerk said, shopping calmly at 9:30 at night, cleaning out the tuna shelves, the water section, etc as if San Antonio were Palacios and as if SAWS, if it were even able to pump after both the entire South TX electrical grid and the SAWS generators went down, were pumping out E.coli.

So what? If it makes them feel better or more secure, so be it....it's their money.

Maybe there will be some good deals on non-perishables on ebay next week for the rest of us. :lol

[SpursWoman]

I10 all the way to a little east of Seguin is all ONE WAY from Houston...so don't even try it. :lol

[Sonia_TX]

My moms friends live in Corpus... They're not leaving. The lady hurt her back and can't sit in a car for more than two hours and the man has to work at the Oil Refinery or something. That's just sad. I would live through the pain and get out of there.

[travis2]

Wow...Rita really took a hit...:wow

000
URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z

[MannyIsGod]

000
Urnt12 Knhc 221500z
Vortex Data Message
A. 22/1449z
B. 25 Deg 18 Min N
88 Deg 38 Min W
C. 700 Mb 2326 M
D. Na
E. Na
F. 121 Deg 135 Kt
G. 35 Deg 13 Nm
H. 913 Mb
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ Na
L. Open Se
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 Nm
P. Noaa3 1818a Rita Ob 05
Max Fl Wind 135 Kt Ne Quad 1446z

[Sapphire]

000
Urnt12 Knhc 221500z
Vortex Data Message
A. 22/1449z
B. 25 Deg 18 Min N
88 Deg 38 Min W
C. 700 Mb 2326 M
D. Na
E. Na
F. 121 Deg 135 Kt
G. 35 Deg 13 Nm
H. 913 Mb
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ Na
L. Open Se
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 Nm
P. Noaa3 1818a Rita Ob 05
Max Fl Wind 135 Kt Ne Quad 1446z
Can you translate? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol Travis beat me.

She's starting an EWRC. The eye is open to the south east (L) and the pressure has come up. The winds have really come down quite a bit to cat 4 status.

[MannyIsGod]

The winds are at about 135mph at the surface.

[MannyIsGod]

We're going to the store now to overreact. I'll be back later. :lol

[Swishy McJackass]

My mom lives in Woodsboro (halfway between Victoria and CC on Hwy 77) and she's planning on sticking it out. I've been trying to convince her to come up here (B/CS) and stay with my wife and me, but she'll have none of it. Based on the projected path, does anyone know what kind of danger she's in?

[Ginofan]

I just called my roommate to make sure she had filled up her car, she said she did and that she went to the store to get water and stuff. They only had Evian water left on the shelves...so she got it anyway. We'll be drinking the good stuff :lol

[ObiwanGinobili]

yum yum.
I love me some evian.

[sa_butta]

We're going to the store now to overreact. I'll be back later. :lolYou should run to the beer aisle like a maniac and when you get the check out say "thank god, I thought you would be out by now. Ive got to prepare for the worst." With your cart full of 4 cases of beer.

[samikeyp]

Watching CNN now....we are going to be bone dry this weekend....Houston, Dallas, OKC will all get wet.

[Ginofan]

You should run to the beer aisle like a maniac and when you get the check out say "thank god, I thought you would be out by now. Ive got to prepare for the worst." With your cart full of 4 cases of beer.
:lmao

[SWC Bonfire]

My mom lives in Woodsboro (halfway between Victoria and CC on Hwy 77) and she's planning on sticking it out. I've been trying to convince her to come up here (B/CS) and stay with my wife and me, but she'll have none of it. Based on the projected path, does anyone know what kind of danger she's in?

She needs to evacuate to Skidmore.

She'll probably get a pretty good north wind, TC. She probably just needs to worry about the trees around the house & power getting knocked out, not much else.

[SpursWoman]

We're going to the store now to overreact. I'll be back later. :lol


:lmao :lmao


I'm going at lunch to do my panicing.....

[sa_butta]

Watching CNN now....we are going to be bone dry this weekend....Houston, Dallas, OKC will all get wet.Dont believe everything you see on CNN.

[CosmicCowboy]

Watching CNN now....we are going to be bone dry this weekend....Houston, Dallas, OKC will all get wet.

Not necessarily. All the TV stations seem to be hours behind the real situation...

If that hurricane degrades to a tropical and gets trapped in Texas by high pressure there will probably be enough rain to go around for everyone...

but the flooding on the Trinity and Brazos especially could be really bad...

[Ginofan]

Watching CNN now....we are going to be bone dry this weekend....Houston, Dallas, OKC will all get wet.

We are probably better off listening to Manny, Travis, etc. right now than CNN.

[KEDA]

I have about 20 cases of water here at the Office Depot @ Blanco & 1604, if anyone needs a case or 2 put on hold Ill do it!

just let me know!

[SWC Bonfire]

Not necessarily. All the TV stations seem to be hours behind the real situation...

If that hurricane degrades to a tropical and gets trapped in Texas by high pressure there will probably be enough rain to go around for everyone...

but the flooding on the Trinity and Brazos especially could be really bad...

I have always wondered what the Brazos would look like if it actually filled it's entire floodplain. We may have a chance to find out.

[KEDA]

correction, I just did a cycle count on the water, I have 19 cases as of 10:50am

[Swishy McJackass]

She needs to evacuate to Skidmore.

She'll probably get a pretty good north wind, TC. She probably just needs to worry about the trees around the house & power getting knocked out, not much else.

Yeah, I'm not worried too much, because we rode out several hurricanes as a kid in the same house. I think she wants to be there just to watch the shit go down.

[Swishy McJackass]

I have always wondered what the Brazos would look like if it actually filled it's entire floodplain. We may have a chance to find out.

Great. That's just what I'M looking forward to.

[SWC Bonfire]

Great. That's just what I'M looking forward to.

Moral of the story: don't build a house anywhere near a native pecan tree.

[samikeyp]

We are probably better off listening to Manny, Travis, etc. right now than CNN.

true but I am seeing the same thing from other sources. We are going to be spared, our friends in Houston and Galveston will not be so lucky.

[travis2]

Can you translate? :lol
000
URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z

Top: Message header. Time stamp is for 1500Z (10 AM CDT)

A. Actual time of fix. 22nd of the month, 9:49 CDT

B. Position of center in deg/mins, lat/long

C. Altitude at which pressure is 700 MB. "Normal" altitude is 3011m. This one shows 2326m, which means the pressure is very low.

D/E normally show estimated max. surface winds and their direction from the center. This report does not include them.

F. Max "flight level" winds and their direction. 135 kts = 155 mph (or so). Blowing from 121 deg.

G. Bearing and distance from center where winds in F were measured. In this case, roughly NE from center, 13 nm (15 mi) away. This roughly translates to a 30 mile diameter eye.

H. Lowest barometric pressure measured. Since there's no comment in this line about it, it is a direct measurement from a dropsonde.

I. Measured temperature (and altitude at measurement) outside the center.

J. Measured temperature (and altitude at measurement) inside the center. A strong storm shows a large difference between I and J. Earlier, Rita showed nearly 20 degrees difference between these two numbers...a very strong storm.

K. Dewpoint inside the eye. Lower means dryer, which means stronger.

L. What the eye looks like. In this case, it's open to the SE. Earlier the eye was closed. Expect the eye to re-close later today.

M. Eye character. CO17-55 means concentric eye (eye within eye), inner diameter 17 NM, outer 55 NM. This particular report shows an eyewall replacement underway.

N/O/P A bunch of techie stuff you don't really need to worry about...except that P has remarks in it. In this case, max flight level winds were 135 kts. Surface winds can be estimated as 90% of this...which means 140 mph.

[travis2]

OK, GFS is done...it has landfall at Sabine Pass in about 48 hrs. No left hook.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

[Sapphire]

Well, that cleared things right up for me!! :lol

I guess I just need to chill and not worry--it's gonna do what it's gonna do. Sorry everyone, I think this storm is out to get me. I just moved to Houston and started a new job over there within the last two weeks. First I thought Katrina would put me out of business due to the gas prices. That started to subside and now along comes Rita, with threats of $5 a gallon gas. Not to mention that my house is just north of Baytown surrounded by many many trees. And now I've evacuated to SA and there are threats of heavy flooding. :depressed

Forget the water. Pass the Jack. :drunk

[SWC Bonfire]

Well, I "called" Katrina, so I say this one goes up the Sabine River.

But I would prefer Baffin Bay.

Go ahead and give me the Klubby.

[KEDA]

ok, now down to 10 cases of water, we started this morning with 58

[CosmicCowboy]

If this storm has taught us anything it is that they don't know where the hell it is going.

Don't count on this projection lasting.

[CosmicCowboy]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...

[SpursWoman]

Moral of the story: don't build a house anywhere near a native pecan tree.


Or just never leave the house on a windy/rainy day without a helmet on. :lol

[SWC Bonfire]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...

:lol

[Sapphire]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...
:lol

They ARE a different breed over there.

[travis2]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...
:lmao

[SWC Bonfire]

Or just never leave the house on a windy/rainy day without a helmet on. :lol

I was reffering to the fact that most native pecan trees sprout in driftpiles. If water got there before, it'll get there again.

[SpursWoman]

I was reffering to the fact that most native pecan trees sprout in driftpiles. If water got there before, it'll get there again.


I figured that's what you meant...but I have many memories of being nailed in the head with them at my grandmother's house when I was little. :lol

[TheTruth]

my mommy just brought me 2 cases of water and a bunch of chili. thank god for mommy.

[CosmicCowboy]

I was reffering to the fact that most native pecan trees sprout in driftpiles. If water got there before, it'll get there again.

I dunno about that...some asshole in my neighborhood must feed the squirrels pecans...I am constantly pulling baby pecan trees up in my flower beds where the damn squirrels buried them...

You are right about native river bottoms though...that is a good indicator...

[samikeyp]

my mommy just brought me 2 cases of water and a bunch of chili. thank god for mommy.

Hope the plumbing holds out! :)

[SpursWoman]

We continue to live history as this incredible Hurricane Season of 2005 unfolds more stunning surprises. Rita has peaked in intensity as the third strongest hurricane of all time, with a pressure of 897 mb and 175 mph winds. She is on the decline now, as the 11am hurricane hunter mission found a pressure of 913 mb, and increase of 5 mb in just 3 hours. The hurricane hunters also found concentric eyewalls of 17 and 55 nautical miles in diameter. All these signs indicate that Rita will continue to weaken today as her inner eyewall collapses and an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Rita is about to leave the vicinity of a warm eddy of Gulf water called the Loop Current that has been aiding her intensification. In addition, 10 knots of shear has developed on her south side, thanks to the fact that the upper-level high pressure system that was providing such excellent outflow for Rita has now shifted to the southeast of the storm. All these signs point to a substantial weakening trend for Rita that will continue through Friday and probably reduce her to a Category 4 hurricane. The GFDL forecast model and NHC predict that this weakening trend will continue until landfall Saturday, when Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane. Lower heat content water and continued shear are expected to cause this weakening.

While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like Katrina did, will still bring to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park.

[MannyIsGod]

I've been in contact with Steve Gregory part of this morning. We exhange emails on occasion, I'll post them here so you guys can see what we've discussed.



Hey Steve,

I know your busy but I wanted to drop you a line about the nightmare scenario that might be playing out.

The GFS has been trending torwards stalling the storm out over south central Texas for some time now, and the NAM 12z run just picked up on it as well. That would cause severe flooding here along the Balcones Escarpment (Flash Flood Aley if you will). So you have Houton and Galvaston ravaged by a cat 4 or so storm, San Antonio hit with days of tropical downpours, and the coastal watershed would then get all of the drainage. So even the areas south of Rita's landfall point are staring down the barrell of a huge gun!


Then Steve's 2 replys



Hi Manuel;

Your absolutely right -- the storm will be slowing down -- and may stall and actually drift around towards the SW. Wasn't planning on bringing that up until the 12Z GFS and then the 18Z runs confirm this scenario. Right now, I'm more concerned that the hurricane will move even further east than forecast, as into southwest LA.

Steve

Hi Manuel;

Since you brought it up -- I thought I'd tell you first. The newest datasets, including info from NMC Hydrological Prediction Center, confirm a disastrous flood event to follow. The GFS also shows the storm land falling to the east of Port Arthur! But the evolution of the primary convergence/cyclonic circulation center ends up going inland for maybe 100 miles and then begins drifting southwestward back towards Houston during a 3 day period.

Steve


This is looking horible right now.

As far as CNN goes, this is something they won't catch onto for some time. They're in hurricane hype mode, and they won't deviate from that untill the NHC or NWS forcast something which might be some time.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, and our HEB on Olmos was fucking out of water. We always have a case or 2 of Ozarka around, and now we have to drink tap water. Bastards!

[Neuromancer]

We're all gonna die.

[Shelly]

So that means we're gonna get a lot of rain then?


I've been in contact with Steve Gregory part of this morning. We exhange emails on occasion, I'll post them here so you guys can see what we've discussed.




Then Steve's 2 replys



This is looking horible right now.

As far as CNN goes, this is something they won't catch onto for some time. They're in hurricane hype mode, and they won't deviate from that untill the NHC or NWS forcast something which might be some time.

[Jimcs50]

Corpus is not even going to get a drop of rain it looks like.

[CosmicCowboy]

Well...Houston is still better off with flooding than hurricane strength winds. They are used to that.

[travis2]

Oh, and our HEB on Olmos was fucking out of water. We always have a case or 2 of Ozarka around, and now we have to drink tap water. Bastards!
:lol

[sa_butta]

We're all gonna die.Who told you?

[travis2]

There's that left hook again...but harder this time. Misses SA completely.

[Neuromancer]

Who told you?


The World.

[MannyIsGod]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, Jim is semi-right about Corpus. If I had evaced from there, I'd be on my way back.

[travis2]

Corpus is not even going to get a drop of rain it looks like.

Not so fast...if the GFS holds up, the remnant comes right back over Corpus. How much rain, I don't know...

[CosmicCowboy]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.

Damn...I think Manny's gettin a stiffy... :lol

just kiddin Manny...

[Jimcs50]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.


My sister's house had 5ft of water in it during Allison...this will be much better because it will be moving through instead of just sitting still dumping water on Houston.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, the biggest thing for me this morning is relief. Jess' family stayed in Houston, and as long as the trackkeeps shiftnig to the east they'll be just fine. Sucks for the Port A people though.

[travis2]

Manny, take it from me...CC just likes slapping geeks around...:lol

[MannyIsGod]

My sister's house had 5ft of water in it during Allison...this will be much better because it will be moving through instead of just sitting still dumping water on Houston.
Jim, it is NOT going to be moving through. That is what I'm saying. The latest indicators are of the storm moving inland but then backtracking to the southwest.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Actually, the biggest thing for me this morning is relief. Jess' family stayed in Houston, and as long as the trackkeeps shiftnig to the east they'll be just fine. Sucks for the Port A people though.


Port Aransas is east of Houston???

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

I am obsessed right now. That much is undeniable.

[travis2]

Port Aransas is east of Houston???
He meant Port Arthur...

[MannyIsGod]

Port Arthur is east of Houston. Sorry, wrong Port A.

[Sapphire]

Port Aransas is east of Houston???
I think he meant Port Arthur.

[Jimcs50]

Jim, it is NOT going to be moving through. That is what I'm saying. The latest indicators are of the storm moving inland but then backtracking to the southwest.

why would it backtrack?

[CosmicCowboy]

the locals call it Pote Arter

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Ohh, my bad. Yeah, Port Arthur is fucked. Funny thing is, we had a class field trip in taht exact area this past weekend. I had no idea how immense the refineries there were. They're like little cities! They even had stop lights and roads going through the refineries that you need to use to get through the city.

[SpursWoman]

Port Aransas is east of Houston???



I had to go back a page or 2 to look at my map. :lmao

[Shelly]

I had to go back a page or 2 to look at my map. :lmao

:lol

I'm totally lost!

[SWC Bonfire]

I had to go back a page or 2 to look at my map. :lmao

:lol Silly SW, women can't read maps!

[Horry For 3!]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.
Damn, i'm South East....well I know how to swim good if it does flood and I have packed some important stuff just in case

[SpursWoman]

:lol Silly SW, women can't read maps!



True...it's a distance thing. Years of being told "_______________________" is 12 inches tends to screw with your perception.


:lol

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Damn, i'm South East....well I know how to swim good if it does flood and I have packed some important stuff just in case


Make sure you keep one up in the chamber...

[MannyIsGod]

why would it backtrack?
High pressure building to the east and north. There is no trof of low pressure to move the high out of the way as was being forcast earlier. That is one reason the storm is slowing down. So it would move to the north and east as the current weak trof forces the high to the east.

As that trof passes, the high will build back, and in turn force Rita (or what is left of Rita) back to the southwest untill the next trof comes along and sweeps it to the northeast.

[SWC Bonfire]

True...it's a distance thing. Years of being told "_______________________" is 12 inches tends to screw with your perception.


:lol

:lol True, true.

That's only 9 inches. :lol

[boutons]

Looks like NO could get a pretty good walloping, being only 150 miles from Beaumont, and on the nastier east side of the 'cane.

and if Rita keeps veering easterly....

[Zack Morris]

Rain rain go away come back another day

[samikeyp]

Actually, the biggest thing for me this morning is relief. Jess' family stayed in Houston, and as long as the trackkeeps shiftnig to the east they'll be just fine. Sucks for the Port A people though.

You mean Port Arthur right?

[SpursWoman]

You mean Port Arthur right?

(keep reading the thread) :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Next time I'll just say Beaumont. :lol

[samikeyp]

(keep reading the thread)

I am at work so I check in when I can. Trying to keep updated.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

At what day will this storm be in the Austin area??

[MannyIsGod]

Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north.

Thats Masters in his latest blog entry.

[samikeyp]

Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north.

Yep...nothing here.

[tlongII]

Seems like there has been a lot of over-reacting to Rita due to the damage Katrina did in New Orleans.

[MannyIsGod]

Mike, thats not what Masters said at all. This is a very difficult situation to forcast, San Antonio could easily see the remanents in this situation.

[Old School Chic]

I heard that San Antonio was also going to feel the Impact of Hurricane Rita, of course not as bad...Anyway, I went grocery shopping last night just In case...

Today, I hear from a co-worker that everyone Is over reacting about this Hurricane... So of course I told him to go away!

Then a few minutes later another co-worker came In crying saying we are going to have high winds and flooding...

I don't know what to believe anymore :pctoss

[CosmicCowboy]

where is his blog?

[MannyIsGod]

Seems like there has been a lot of over-reacting to Rita due to the damage Katrina did in New Orleans.
Yeah. I wonder why people would react in that manner with a storm that is stronger than Katrina ever was?

http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smiblabber.gif

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html