Rita and Corpus Christi

[Shelly]

I was flipping through channels and Fox had Rita at 212 mph winds???????

[travis2]

uhhhhh...no.

This came out about an hour ago...

000
URNT12 KNHC 221655Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1619Z
B. 25 DEG 26 MIN N
88 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2338 M
D. 80
E. 135 DEG 15 NM
F. 211 DEG 120 KT
G. 119 DEG 11 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 12 C/ 3048 M
J. 20 C/ 3057 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C018-45
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION, SFC CENTER OBSCURED

[SWC Bonfire]

I was flipping through channels and Fox had Rita at 212 mph winds???????

It's possible it might have had gusts that high when it was Cat 5.

[MannyIsGod]

See line M?

An EWRC is underway. There is little doubt about it. That line says there are 2 eyewalls, noe at 18 miles and the other at 45.

[samikeyp]

Mike, thats not what Masters said at all. This is a very difficult situation to forcast, San Antonio could easily see the remanents in this situation

I know I am not an expert and I know there are tons of people who know way more about this than me and I know this thing could turn in a heartbeat and cream Corpus and Port A (the other one :) )....I just am of the opinion that we are not going to get much if anything here. I would like to see some rain because we need it.

[samikeyp]

EWRC

what does that stand for? (I know SW, read the rest of the thread! :lol)

I am guessing EW is Eye Wall?

[Shelly]

I thought I was seeing things, but they still have it as a CAT 5 with 212 winds.

[travis2]

what does that stand for? (I know SW, read the rest of the thread! :lol)

I am guessing EW is Eye Wall?
Eyewall replacement cycle...

[Sapphire]

Fox News is now saying that it will probably bypass the Houston metro area and hit just east of the Texas Louisiana border. Great news for us Houstonians, bad, devastatingly bad news maybe for New Orleans. But like someone mentioned earlier, there shouldn't be many people left there, and the property is already damaged, so it might not make much difference there. They have to rebuild and there's money ear-marked for it. I am probably going to go straight to hell for wishing that on NO, but why have 2 major areas devastated? Maybe Rita was sent to finish what Katrina started.

[samikeyp]

Eyewall replacement cycle...

Thank you! :)

[sa_butta]

.

[sa_butta]

I am probably going to go straight to hellBetter stock up on water I hear it is pretty hot there.

[Sapphire]

Better stock up on water I hear it is pretty hot there.
:lol
Where can a girl get some in this town?

[tlongII]

Yeah. I wonder why people would react in that manner with a storm that is stronger than Katrina ever was?

http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smiblabber.gif


So what? The high winds are at sea.

[SWC Bonfire]

:lol
Where can a girl get some in this town?

Word is that there is actually water underground, and they went to the trouble of running pipes to every house.

[sa_butta]

:lol
Where can a girl get some in this town?Hope you have a filter on your tap. Better tap water than contaminated water. Fill up some jugs with tap water.

[travis2]

:lol
Where can a girl get some in this town?

Oh, you mean water...my bad...:oops

I would imagine HEB would be restocking today...

[Sapphire]

Word is that there is actually water underground, and they went to the trouble of running pipes to every house.
:rolleyes
So they have those pipes in hell also?

Thanks...

[MannyIsGod]

So what? The high winds are at sea.
Same thing with Katrina. Katrina only came ashore like a CAT 3 but brought a CAT 5 storm surge with her because of those high winds at sea.

Do you see the corrolation?

[MannyIsGod]

Mike, an eye wall replacement cycle. The storm will soon lose its inner eye and it will be replaced by an outer larger eye. That eye will then start to shrink and she'll start to pick up some steam once again.

[Manu20]

As of 1pm Rita has winds of 150mph and the minimum pressure is 915mb. It is no longer a Cat 5.

[tlongII]

Same thing with Katrina. Katrina only came ashore like a CAT 3 but brought a CAT 5 storm surge with her because of those high winds at sea.

Do you see the corrolation?

Nope.

[samikeyp]

Mike, an eye wall replacement cycle. The storm will soon lose its inner eye and it will be replaced by an outer larger eye. That eye will then start to shrink and she'll start to pick up some steam once again.

thanks man. did you get any sleep last night or were you glued to the internets watching this monster?

[travis2]

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 221735
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 20a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

...rita Weakens A Little Further...remains An Extremely Dangerous
Hurricane...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Of Port
O'connor To Port Mansfield Texas And For The Southeastern Coast Of
Louisiana East Of Morgan City To The Mouth Of The Mississippi
River. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect From North Of The Mouth Of The
Mississippi River To The Mouth Of The Pearl River Including
Metropolitan New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain...from South Of
Port Mansfield To Brownsville Texas...and For The Northeastern
Coast Of Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward To The Rio Grande.
A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 25.5 North...longitude 89.2 West Or About 435 Miles...700
Km...southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 430 Miles...695 Km...
Southeast Of Port Arthur Texas.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn To The Northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 To 36
Hours.

Data From A Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That Maximum
Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 150 Mph...240 Km/hr... With
Higher Gusts. Rita Is Now A Strong Category Four Hurricane On
The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Slight Weakening Is Forecast During
The Next 24 Hours But Rita Is Expected To Remain An Extremely
Dangerous Hurricane.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 185 Miles...295 Km.

Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By A Noaa Hurricane Hunter
Plane Was 915 Mb...27.01 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The East Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.
Tides Are Currently Running About 2 Foot Above Normal Along The
Mississippi And Louisiana Coasts In The Areas Affected By Katrina.
Tides In Those Areas Will Increase Up To 3 To 4 Feet And Be
Accompanied By Large Waves...and Residents There Could Experience
Some Coastal Flooding.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12 Inches With Isolated Maximum 15
Inch Total Are Possible Along The Path Of Rita Particularly Over
Southeast Texas And Western Louisiana. In Addition...rainfall
Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Possible Over Southeastern Louisiana
Including New Orleans. Based On The Forecast Track...rainfall
Totals In Excess Of 25 Inches Are Possible After Rita Moves Inland.

Repeating The 1 Pm Cdt Position...25.5 N... 89.2 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...150
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...915 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
4 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Avila

[sa_butta]

As of 1pm Rita has winds of 150mph and the minimum pressure is 915mb. It is no longer a Cat 5.1pm est? it is only 1248p here.

[batman2883]

wheres the salt, wheres the god damn salt?

[Manu20]

1pm est? it is only 1248p here.
1pm CDT, the report came out early.

[MannyIsGod]

Nope.
Well, its there.

[sa_butta]

wheres the salt, wheres the god damn salt?This is no time for Margaritas Batman. There is hurricane out there.

[Sapphire]

1pm est? it is only 1248p here.
1PM Eastern=12 noon Central

[batman2883]

I just saw a thread called rita and it made me think of a margarita an.....what there is another hurricane blowing?

[MannyIsGod]

thanks man. did you get any sleep last night or were you glued to the internets watching this monster?
I made myself go to sleep. :lol

[sa_butta]

I just saw a thread called rita and it made me think of a margarita an.....what there is another hurricane blowing?http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

[batman2883]

damn I think god is doing this to move as many people to San Antonio possible so that we can finally have a very very large market and get a NFL team. God see's this and wants us to have an NFL TEam

[Ginofan]

The advisories usually come out anywhere from 10-15 minutes before the designated time, butta.

[sa_butta]

The advisories usually come out anywhere from 10-15 minutes before the designated time, butta.Cool thanks.

[sa_butta]

damn I think god is doing this to move as many people to San Antonio possible so that we can finally have a very very large market and get a NFL team. God see's this and wants us to have an NFL TEamIts our destiny.

[Horry For 3!]

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/5862/projectedpath3qn.jpg

With that projected path that means I wouldn't really get anything but some rain.

[batman2883]

Exactly San Antonio with New Orleans, Corpus, Houston, and Galvaston here shall become as big as New York.....and soon we shall have an NFL franchise.....

[samikeyp]

Actual call I just got....

"yes the person I book for is flying through Phoenix tomorrow and I wanted to know how the hurricane is going to affect his flight...."

:lmao

[travis2]

*shaking head*

[travis2]

Yo, Manny, you paying attention? Take a gander at the satellite loops...looks to me like that replacement cycle may be ending...

[sa_butta]

Actual call I just got....

"yes the person I book for is flying through Phoenix tomorrow and I wanted to know how the hurricane is going to affect his flight...."

:lmaoTell him his flight has been rerouted to Houston due to weather conditions.

[travis2]

Tell him his flight has been rerouted to Houston due to weather conditions.
:lol very nice...

[MannyIsGod]

Next NAM should start in 10 minutes Travis, I'm pulling up the GOES page right now. The pressure has gone back down 1mb as of the last VORTEX report and she is about to enter some warmer water again.

I woudln't be suprised to see her regain cat 5 status.

[travis2]

Next NAM should start in 10 minutes Travis, I'm pulling up the GOES page right now. The pressure has gone back down 1mb as of the last VORTEX report and she is about to enter some warmer water again.

I woudln't be suprised to see her regain cat 5 status.

It's coming, I'd agree...The weakening has bottomed out, and her outflow and overall structure are becoming symmetrical again.

[Marcus Bryant]

http://kappachapter.org/~kevinh/photos/redneck.jpg

Hey, whar ya'll watchin duh herreeekain at?

[travis2]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Relevant satellite is GOES Storm Floater 1

[MannyIsGod]

The Dvoark loop still shows what could be the concentric eye walls. I don't think its over yet Travis.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

You might like that site Travis. You can zoom in on anything. The problem is it is loading very slowly right now so be persistant.

[SWC Bonfire]

Why aren't the colors on the infared scan opposite of what they show? Shouldn't the top of the storm near the eye be colder, not warmer?

[travis2]

Why aren't the colors on the infared scan opposite of what they show? Shouldn't the top of the storm near the eye be colder, not warmer?
Convention. On IR cloud plots, the scale is reversed.

[travis2]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

You might like that site Travis. You can zoom in on anything. The problem is it is loading very slowly right now so be persistant.

Never said it was "over"...just "ending". There's a difference... :angel :lol

Yeah, I saw the Dvorak images...interesting view...I would think that with the pressure stabilizing and the outflow region getting back into shape, that the replacement cycle is at least proceeding to its end...

[MannyIsGod]

I think you are probably right on that front.

[travis2]

You aren't kidding about load times...:rolleyes

The NOAA site lets you zoom in too...and I can stop/rock the loop as well. Main thing I have to watch for is making sure I have the most current images (clear cookies)...

[CharlieMac]

http://kappachapter.org/~kevinh/photos/redneck.jpg

Hey, whar ya'll watchin duh herreeekain at?

This guy deserves to be an avatar.

[SWC Bonfire]

When will they issue revised track predictions? That bastard ain't even going to make it to the Texas Coast at the rate it's going...

[travis2]

When will they issue revised track predictions? That bastard ain't even going to make it to the Texas Coast at the rate it's going...

The next major update from NHC is 4 PM CDT. The NAM model is running now, and the GFS model will start up in about an hour and a half.

[samikeyp]

Tell him his flight has been rerouted to Houston due to weather conditions.

I should have.

Actually I said..."well since the hurricane is hitting Texas and NOT Arizona, he should be safe...its two states away, you know." :lol

[travis2]

NAM current through 12 hours...and it still has a westward kick...

[boutons]

Will Galvestion look like this Sunday morning?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/4272064.stm

[Ginofan]

If Galveston still gets head on, the entire island will be underwater from the stormsurge. It might look like that later when the water recedes, Boutons.

[Marklar MM]

If Galveston gets hit, it will look like this.

http://www.adirondackphotos.info/large/lake-pictures.jpg

[Ginofan]

A. 22/19:22:40Z
B. 25 deg 44 min N
089 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 149 deg 122 kt
G. 062 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 914 mb
I. 9 C/ 3658 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z

[Flea]

I should have.

Actually I said..."well since the hurricane is hitting Texas and NOT Arizona, he should be safe...its two states away, you know." :lol


I don't know Sami, they are predicting a pretty huge storm surge.

:lol

[CosmicCowboy]

I found the "50 foot storm surge" quote in another article. It was the city Of Galveston City Manager...


Galveston was a virtual ghost town by late Wednesday. The coastal city of 58,000 _ situated on an island 8 feet above sea level _ was nearly wiped off the map in 1900 when an unnamed hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000 in what is still the nation's deadliest natural disaster.

LeBlanc, the city manager, said the storm surge from Rita could reach 50 feet. Galveston is protected by a nearly 11-mile-long granite seawall 17 feet tall.

"Not a good picture for us," LeBlanc said.

what a goober.

The truth is bad enough...

I guess he was talking about the thirty foot waves on top of the storm surge...that would add up to 50 but is technically not the surge...

[Ginofan]

It looks like she's starting to blow up again...Link (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html)

[LuvBones]

My sis left Houston at 8 pm yesterday and was still in Houston 4 1/2 hours later. She ended up staying at a hotel and she's been trying to get here since she woke up.. I think she's just getting out of Houston now.

The traffic is crazy. :depressed

[Vashner]

It looks like she's starting to blow up again...Link (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html)

Daytime heating....

[Ginofan]

Daytime heating....

Well supposedly she completed her ewrc so a little strengthening is possible. But maybe you're right...there should be another recon out in a little bit.

[Vashner]

No... I am right... :) we have not even hit peak temp for the day...

[Ginofan]

No... I am right... :) we have not even hit peak temp for the day...
:lol So...You're saying it's not strengthening?

[Vashner]

It will Be cat 5 again tonight.. and hit land as a 4..

[travis2]

Hannity had Joe Bastardi from AccuWeather on at the top of the hour...

He laid down his prediction...

Landfall Sat. between 3 and 6 AM, Galveston +/- 25 miles.

Up 45 to Dallas

Left hook down 35 to SA and Laredo

:wow

[Vashner]

I have my wetsuit, goggles and fins on the ready...

[Ginofan]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z

[travis2]

NAM is saying Matagorda Bay about Saturday noon...and then a left hook towards SA...

WTF???

[Marklar MM]

http://www.alaskadownstream.com/images/bobsilver1.jpg

[Ginofan]

NAM is saying Matagorda Bay about Saturday noon...and then a left hook towards SA...

WTF???

WTF, indeed! How long before the next GFS is out?

[travis2]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z

Closed wall...single radius on the eye measurement. Looks like the replacement cycle is over.

Pressure creeping back down a bit too...

[Vashner]

Oh well fill the guadalupe is real low anyway.. we need the rain..

If it fills up would be good for one more last Bergheim tube trip b4 october cool fronts.

[travis2]

WTF, indeed! How long before the next GFS is out?
GFS should kick off in the next 10 minutes or so...should have info out to landfall in about an hour...

[Shelly]

I wish they'd make up their minds! I'm tired of searching for SW's map!

[CosmicCowboy]

damn...when was the last time the models disagreed so much this close to landfall? This is wacked.

[Ginofan]

I wish they'd make up their minds! I'm tired of searching for SW's map!

:lol I keep checking the Google Maps.

[SpursWoman]

I wish they'd make up their minds! I'm tired of searching for SW's map!


:lmao :makeout


I actually printed it out and it's to the left of my computer at work for easy reference... :lol

[travis2]

Landfall (maybe a couple of hours after)...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_048l.gif

End of run...early Monday morning...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_084l.gif

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 21

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on September 22, 2005

...Dangerous Hurricane Rita gradually heading toward the southwest
Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
north of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the
Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the
southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of
the mouth of the Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and
Lake Pontchartrain....and from south of Port O'Connor to Port
Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

A tropical Strom watch remains in effect from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 25.8 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 405 miles...
650 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 390 miles... 630
km...southeast of Port Arthur Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of Rita will be approaching the
southwest Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Rita is a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Anytropical Strom force winds in the New
Orleans area are expected to be confined to a few squalls
associated with quickly moving rainbands. At 3 PM CDT...a NOAA buoy
reported a 10-minute average wind of 89 mph...143 km/hr with a gust
to 112 mph...180 km/hr.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was
913 mb...26.96 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the
Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by
Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
coastal flooding.

Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum 15
inch totals are possible along the path of Rita over southeast Texas
and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Based on the
forecast track...totals accumulations in excess of 25 inches are
possible over the next several days as the system slows down. In
addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over
southeastern Louisiana including New Orleans.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...25.8 N... 89.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure... 913 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila

[SpursWoman]

Oh well fill the guadalupe is real low anyway.. we need the rain..

If it fills up would be good for one more last Bergheim tube trip b4 october cool fronts.


After the last 2 floods the Guadalupe was closed for an extended period of time because of all of the people's houses 'n stuff floating in it.

:fro

[Vashner]

Yea I was in there scuba diving looking for stuff. Me and some friends did a river dive in it about a week after that flood that wiped out part of NB. It was nice in some places it took out all the mud and just left a bunch of exposed limestone. We found pottery and other junk.. but nothing of value (we would of turned in any personal effects). And yea my Dr. let's me dive but I just have to roll my gear into the water instead of standing up..

[Sonia_TX]

Is this storm just trying to take out ALL of Texas? WTF?

(in reference to people saying it will go up to Dallas then come back towards us then to Laredo. Maybe after that it will head to EP then to Lubbock...might as well. :depressed )

[travis2]

Is this storm just trying to take out ALL of Texas? WTF?

(in reference to people saying it will go up to Dallas then come back towards us then to Laredo. Maybe after that it will head to EP then to Lubbock...might as well. :depressed )
Don't give it any ideas...

[Sonia_TX]

Sorry Travis. :/

[Ginofan]

Reconnaissance flights this afternoon indicate that the weakening phase Rita went through has ceased. Her central presure has held steady between 913 and 915 mb between noon and 4 pm, and the surface winds are steady at about 145 - 150 mph. Rita is a strong Category 4 hurricane. She appears to be going through a collapse of the inner eyewall, which the hurricane hunters have noted has a large gap in it. It may take 12 - 24 hours for Rita to rebuild her eyewall. During that time, some fluctuations in strength may occur, but weakening is most likely. This would occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, it is expected that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles.

So no go on the completing the EWRC? I'm confused. :wtf

[travis2]

I don't get it either...

[Ginofan]

Where's SuperManny when you need him

[Shelly]

Where's SuperManny when you need him

He's still out looking for water....

[CosmicCowboy]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif

This is a crazy storm...look at the variance in the models...one bright spot is that the UKMET has been reall accurate this year...and it's the furthest track to the East...

[Shelly]

I think HAL got to the computers.

[Vashner]

Relax a bit.. it's nice to look at models and stuff but weather is still somewhat .. err random. Be prepared for short power outages... have dry food and water, candles, ammo.. whatever.. and just relax...

[Jimcs50]

They just lifted the evacuation order from Corpus Christi just as I said they would.

They no longer feel that Corpus is threatened.

[Vashner]

They modified it from mandated to voluntary. Nueces county is still under a voluntary evac. It was not really cancelled. They are asking people that left not to come back till after the storm.

[Mijo]

Does it make me a sick person to want the the hurricane to come towards San Antonio?

[Vashner]

http://pantheon.yale.edu/~bkw5/images/rita0922051200zsmall.jpg argh what a mess..

[Marklar MM]

http://pantheon.yale.edu/~bkw5/images/rita0922051200zsmall.jpg argh what a mess..

Looks like the graph on The Daily Show yesterday about the deficit.

[Shelly]

Looks like the graph on The Daily Show yesterday about the deficit.


Looks like one of my kids' first drawings.

[Vashner]

Hum there is a political Rita thread in the politics forum.. please pick up your doggy poop and take it next door... (MM)..

Thank You and enjoy Tin Foil... america's wrapper.

[Marklar MM]

Dude. I am not political. I was just statin the Daily Show had a graph with lines goin everywhere, and that is basically what I see on that chart.

[Ginofan]

Urnt12 Knhc 222107z
Vortex Data Message
A. 22/2043z
B. 25 Deg 50 Min N
89 Deg 25 Min W
C. 700 Mb 2320 M
D. Na
E. Na
F. 124 Deg 123 Kt
G. 033 Deg 12 Nm
H. 911 Mb
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ Na
L. Closed Wall
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 Nm
P. Noaa3 1818a Rita Ob 46
Max Fl Wind 133 Kt Nw Quad 1910z
Excellent Radar Presentation
Outer Eyewall Contracting

I don't understand why the conflicting recon reports from the two different planes in flight.

[Vashner]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GEIR.JPG

[Vashner]

I don't understand why the conflicting recon reports from the two different planes in flight.

I think NOAA3 is a jet... the other plane is a C130.. little bit different equipment. And it's an active storm so it's changing all the time..

[Ginofan]

Thanks dude.

[Ginofan]

It looks like New Orleans and that area are getting pounded by rain and wind from the outterbans.

[SpursWoman]

It looks like New Orleans and that area are getting pounded by rain and wind from the outterbans.


Right now?

[Vashner]

I still think the best place for it to hit would be NO.. because it's already empty and messed up.. and tagged for rebuilding money ...

It would actually be cheaper to hit NO again than anywhere in Texas.

[travis2]

It looks like New Orleans and that area are getting pounded by rain and wind from the outterbans.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml

[travis2]

GFS is showing landfall at Port Arthur...then curving up to Shreveport...

[Ishta]

I don't think Rita knows where she's going..

[CosmicCowboy]

Sure will be glad when Manny gets back and straightens this all out...:)

[travis2]

Now it technically is plowing in at Port Arthur...but Houston/Galveston is still getting a LOT of rain...

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

I took a nap, I was tired.

[MannyIsGod]

The big question is the sterngth of the ridge. If it is stronger to the east, the the NAM will verify and you'll see Rita (or whats left of her) move the the west. If not you'll see a GFS scenario play out where it loiters over LA and East TX.

[spurs_2108]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml
Dang. Are we suppose to get any rain here? I would imagine....

[MannyIsGod]

Ok, I read the recon VORTEX reports and here is why they were different. First, the one with 913mb was an extrapolation. The information was just estimated while the 911 mb was an actual measurement. Second, the EWRC isn't completely over because there are still 2 eye walls, but the outer one is contracting while the inner one is still holding on. Quite frankly, the strength of the storm is apparent when even during an EWRC the inner eye is closed as opposed to disintergrating.

[samikeyp]

Dang. Are we suppose to get any rain here? I would imagine....

the weather channel took it out of our forecast for Saturday but they give us chances all next week.

[CosmicCowboy]

Dang. Are we suppose to get any rain here? I would imagine....

I doubt we will even be able to tell when it comes ashore in SA and won't get any wind/rain then...but if it sucks back west we could get LOTS of rain...

[travis2]

The big question is the sterngth of the ridge. If it is stronger to the east, the the NAM will verify and you'll see Rita (or whats left of her) move the the west. If not you'll see a GFS scenario play out where it loiters over LA and East TX.

Well here's an interesting kicker...if the GFS holds up, then the remnant will head to Shreveport, hook right, plow down through Lafayette, and head back into the Gulf...

Waiting for the next update to see where that piece goes...Mexico or back up to TX...

[samikeyp]

Well here's an interesting kicker...if the GFS holds up, then the remnant will head to Shreveport, hook right, plow down through Lafayette, and head back into the Gulf...

Was it Ivan last year that did that? Hit the east coast came down to the Gulf and reformed?

[CosmicCowboy]

SEPT 22, 2005 / 4:33 PM CDT


RITA STABILIZES AS VERY DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE
STORM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD -- LANDFALL THREAT
PORT ARTHUR AT GREATEST RISK OF LANDFALL IN 44 HOURS
SEVERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MONDAY
The eye wall replacement cycle that began this morning is nearing completion, as evidenced by
the improved satellite imagery signature and the latest RECON reports. The central pressure
that had risen to 915mb this morning, is now falling off gradually to 913mb, while the thermal
eye wall temp differential that had risen to 4°C this AM, has risen to 7°C as of 2:50PM CDT.
MAX sustained winds were earlier reported at 122Kts (130mph sustained surface) which is a
CAT 4 intensity -- but in the past hour, have increased to 133Kts in the NW quadrant. It is
safe to assume winds are currently around 140Kts in the NE quadrant, or 145mph near
the surface -- a very strong CAT 4 intensity. The height of the 700mb surface has fallen 10 meters
in the last few hours, to 2329 meters.

The storm is now located near 25.8N/89.5W or 390NM SE of Port Arthur. The storm is now
moving NW (305°) at 9Kts based on the last 3 hours of fixes. The crew continues to report a
double eyewall with a diameter of 18NM and 48NM -- but the thermal and pressure trends, along
with the improved colder CDO signature -- tend to indicate the eye wall recycling is either completed,
or has simply stabilized for now.

The latest 18Z models, including the late , full cycle 12Z run and GFS Ensemble forecast, are
in extreme agreement with a landfall very near Port Arthur around 1PM CDT on Saturday.
The GFS and NOGAPS are to the right of this landfall envelope, showing the storm crossing
the coast right along the LA/TX state line. The models are also in agreement that the storm has peaked
in intensity, and will gradually weaken on it's way to the coast -- making landfall as a very strong
CAT 3 or low end CAT 4. Intensity forecasts are extremely unreliable in general -- as evidenced by
the extraordinary deepening of the storm yesterday. That said -- I believe we will see RITA regain
CAT 5 intensity tonight, and then begin a slow weakening during the final 24 hours before
landfall -- which will come as a CAT 4.

However, because of RITA's extreme pressure and prolonged period over the Gulf as a CAT 5 storm, the
storm surge will be equal to that of CAT 5 hurricane. A tidal surge of 20-22 feet, with Port Arthur
most vulnerable to catastrophic storm surge damage -- will likely cover a 20-30 mile stretch of coast
from the point of landfall eastward, with 13-18 ft extending to 50-80 miles east of the point of landfall.
Gale force winds extend out for over 200 miles from the center -- and gusts to gale force will reach
over to the New Orleans area. A tidal storm surge of 4-8 feet will hit the Mississippi Delta region
over to Grand Isle, LA.

Of growing concern post landfall is the path of the storm after it makes landfall Saturday. All the
global models are forecasting Rita to slow down and become quasi stationary by late Saturday night
somewhere along the TX/LA border about 100-150 miles inland. This occurs in response to the
rebuilding of a ridge to the north of the storm over the central U.S.. The ridge then continues to
expand towards the east and southeast, and is expected to turn Rita towards the southwest later
Sunday and into Monday. In the process, and although the winds will calm down -- the storm will
likely bring over 48 hours of torrential rainfall to much of Louisiana on southwestward towards the
Houston area - after the storm comes inland. This greatly raises the chances of severe flash flooding
over inland areas on Sunday and Monday -- with rainfall totals easily exceeding 25" in some locations
- with 30" or more quite possible in some isolated locations.

A Storm Surge and Wind Forecast forecast Graphic will be sent out, along with a brief update on the storm itself
around 8PM CDT. A full forecast package will be sent around 11:30 tonight after all the 00Z global model arrives.

[spurs=bling]

the traffic is fucked up, my aunt that lives in galveston is still stuck in traffic since last night. she should have left on tuesday she called and said that she was running out of gas. and had only moved a couple of miles.

[MannyIsGod]

Travis what gets me is how the GFDL, which is a hurricane specific model that runs with GFS data, has the track WEST.

I think the ridge is stronger than the GFS anticipates.

[travis2]

Maybe we should all just roll dice...

[samikeyp]

I was close...hit AL then looped back.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan

[Spurs will ROCK you]

I don't think Rita knows where she's going..

THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PREDICTION TO ME

[John T]

For those with family travelling to San Antonio on I-10: it's pretty much a parking lot, but if you take 78 (in Seguin I think) to 1604 there is no traffic.

Carie

[spurs=bling]

For those with family travelling to San Antonio on I-10: it's pretty much a parking lot, but if you take 78 (in Seguin I think) to 1604 there is no traffic.

Carie

well that is not really good for us. my aunt called and told us that since she had not been moving alot and running out of gas she and some other people are going back to galveston to ride out the storm :(

[batman2883]

well that is not really good for us. my aunt called and told us that since she had not been moving alot and running out of gas she and some other people are going back to galveston to ride out the storm :(

Where the heck have you been?

[spurs=bling]

Where the heck have you been?
healing my leg. i cut myself at school and got stitches

[CosmicCowboy]

well that is not really good for us. my aunt called and told us that since she had not been moving alot and running out of gas she and some other people are going back to galveston to ride out the storm :(

That is fucking nuts.

[spurs=bling]

That is fucking nuts.
yeah i know :depressed i wish she would have left a day before.

[batman2883]

healing my leg. i cut myself at school and got stitches

what were you doing?

[CosmicCowboy]

yeah i know :depressed i wish she would have left a day before.

We are still 44 hours out from landfall...that thing twitches left and Galveston could still be under 20 feet of water with 30 foot waves rolling right through to the mainland...

[batman2883]

We are still 44 hours out from landfall...that thing twitches left and Galveston could still be under 20 feet of water with 30 foot waves rolling right through to the mainland...


anyone up for surfing?

[spurs=bling]

what were you doing?
P.E

[spurs=bling]

We are still 44 hours out from landfall...that thing twitches left and Galveston could still be under 20 feet of water with 30 foot waves rolling right through to the mainland...
thank you add more to my worried mind.

[spurs=bling]

anyone up for surfing?
:rolleyes

[CosmicCowboy]

thank you add more to my worried mind.

my intention was for someone to call your aunt and talk her out of that ridiculous plan.

[samikeyp]

I was hoping Galveston would be spared....Mother Nature already made her point there.

[spurs=bling]

my intention was for someone to call your aunt and talk her out of that ridiculous plan.
my dad is talking to her and so did my gramdma. what more do we do, she is giving up she has already been there since 7pm last night. and has only moved some miles and is running out of gas , i pray to God she does change her mind.

[Vashner]

Argh nevermind it's broken..

Wait nevermind it's working..http://www.corpuscoast.com/bob_hall_pier_cam.htm

Ball Hall pier cam..

[Vashner]

my dad is talking to her and so did my gramdma. what more do we do, she is giving up she has already been there since 7pm last night. and has only moved some miles and is running out of gas , i pray to God she does change her mind.

They will have fuel trucks patrolling the are. just tell her to hold on.... sigh..

[spurs=bling]

They will have fuel trucks patrolling the are. just tell her to hold on.... sigh..

we have but she wants to go back and we don't need that right now. but the sounds of it my dad is changing her mind i hope.

[Vashner]

Yea man.. even everyday Houston traffic is living hell..

And they are trying to do that to us with the toll roads.. (I hate Gov Perry now)..

Anyway I would not work in Houston for all the money in the world... it's not worth it..

You can taste the pollution in the air too most days.. it's nasty.

Oh here are some Galveston webcams..

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 222338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/23:28:50Z
B. 26 deg 01 min N
089 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 132 deg 125 kt
G. 047 deg 024 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. CO16/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W


New vortex msg. The outer eyewall is open now. The 2 eyes are competing. Don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Vashner]

Remember when I said it had eaten that storm? ... I swear like in 1 frame it gobbled a storm 150 miles long... Let me dig up that pic..
Really you had to see the movie .. When I saw it was like like "woah" cause I had not seen that b4..



The 2 eyes are competing. Don't think I've ever seen that before.
http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/rita01.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

yeah, but that really wasn't a gobble. The storms were all circulating around the center, but the center was mostly exposed with no storm activity around it so it looks as though the other other storms were "swallowed".

In this scenario, the outer eye wall ususally robs the inner eye wall of all its strength, but this is taking a good while to finish. It'll be interesting to see when this finishes.

:lmao @ your telestrating though. Thats awesome.

[MannyIsGod]

Looking back at the picture you put up Vashner, if you draw a line from one of yoru green circles to the other, and then put a mark right in the middle of that line, that is where you find Rita. Not under the bright red convection.

[MannyIsGod]

Vash,

here you go:

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/913758/rita.jpg

[Vashner]

Dude it's a double decker storm....

With cheese...

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
089 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 916 mb
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARED CLOSED

There she goes. EWRC is in it's last phases

[SpursWoman]

What does "EXTRAP" on H mean?

[rl64tx]

looking at some of the radars she seems to be moving more to the west?? Am I looking at it correctly??

[Vashner]

I never totally trust computers... so I think the storm could do whatever it wants..

[CharlieMac]

looking at some of the radars she seems to be moving more to the west?? Am I looking at it correctly??

You sure are. If it last for more than an hour, then who knows where that bitch will go.

[MannyIsGod]

SW, Extrap stands for extrapolated. They couldn't get a surface pressure reaading using one of their dropped sensors, so they took a reading at a certain height, then used a formula to convert it and figure out what the pressure is at the surface.

Very accurate, but still an estimate.

The storm has been moving westward lately, but it could turn out to be a wobble. You have to wait usually about 3 hours or so to make sure it is a true change in direction.

[rl64tx]

SW, Extrap stands for extrapolated. They couldn't get a surface pressure reaading using one of their dropped sensors, so they took a reading at a certain height, then used a formula to convert it and figure out what the pressure is at the surface.

Very accurate, but still an estimate.

The storm has been moving westward lately, but it could turn out to be a wobble. You have to wait usually about 3 hours or so to make sure it is a true change in direction.

Thanks dude!!! You're the true GURU!!! Fuck Steve Brown :lol

[spurs=bling]

thank God my aunt is not going back to galveston ( sigh of relief)
so we just have to wait for her to get here.

[tw05baller]

bake her some brownies

[MannyIsGod]

Thanks dude!!! You're the true GURU!!! Fuck Steve Brown :lol
Out of all the San Antonio weather people Steve Brown is my favorite by far.

Just the other night, I realized just how much I hated the people on WOAI especially Jennifer Broom. She kept calling the NHC forcast track a model while pimping the BAMM model with is probably the worst at handling deep hurricanes like this.

She's so damn stupid.

But Brown today was talking about the NAM and another model, which was pretty cool. I think he might be the only one worth listening too. The man gets excited about things, too, and I dig that.

[spurs=bling]

bake her some brownies
come on tw i just had the crap scared out of me, and you want me to make brownies??

[tw05baller]

i was kiddin i hope shes ok

[Shelly]

Out of all the San Antonio weather people Steve Brown is my favorite by far.

Just the other night, I realized just how much I hated the people on WOAI especially Jennifer Broom. She kept calling the NHC forcast track a model while pimping the BAMM model with is probably the worst at handling deep hurricanes like this.

She's so damn stupid.

But Brown today was talking about the NAM and another model, which was pretty cool. I think he might be the only one worth listening too. The man gets excited about things, too, and I dig that.

I love Steve Browne! He's the only one I watch and at least has a personality!

[CharlieMac]

Osterhage is coo' too.

[Vashner]

Check this out.. I am trying to find some current pics from ISS of rita. This is an older storm. I guess they don't have raw image feeds..

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/station/crew-9/lores/iss009e22832.jpg

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/station/crew-9/lores/iss009e21540.jpg

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/station/crew-9/lores/iss009e21112.jpg

[spurs=bling]

i was kiddin i hope shes ok
thank you

[tw05baller]

beno keeps lookin at me funny

[tw05baller]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif


manny what do you make out of this. will we get any rain from the leftovers

[spurs=bling]

beno keeps lookin at me funny
:lol thanks i needed a laugh to get rid of this worry.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif


manny what do you make out of this. will we get any rain from the leftovers


WTF is up with the BAMM

Why would the storm just stop and take a 95

[samikeyp]

Steve Browne is cool...he is the White Manny! :p

[Ginofan]

WTF is up with the BAMM

Why would the storm just stop and take a 95

The BAMM sucks. Manny said that it doesn't do well with the deep storms like this.

[spurs=bling]

we are gonna get some winds

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805_PROB34_F120+gif/211604.gif

maybe some winds

[MannyIsGod]

The 0z run of the NAM is coming out. It has the storm slowing even more off the coast which is good news because it would weaken offshore.

But one thing that isn't good news is the fact that if the NAM verifies, San Antonio could be in for a flood event. The motion over the past 2 hours gives the NAM some more creedence. The 0z GFS run will be interesting to say the least.

[Horry For 3!]

we are gonna get some winds

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805_PROB34_F120+gif/211604.gif

maybe some winds
Hmmm from that it looks like there will be 30 - 40 mph winds for me. My mom just wants some rain because we need it.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

It's already way east. Fuck it, come on Rita, go to New Orleans. Everything over there is already fucked up anyway.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm leaning to believing the NAM. It seems to have a better grasp on the ridge and is getting a good handle on things.

The bad news? The latest run is showing a direct hit on Galvaston. :(

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_054l.gif

[Vashner]

So about 30-32 hours till landfall?

[MannyIsGod]

I think longer than that. Probably 45-48 hours.

[MannyIsGod]

The NHC is wrong, and they're just being slow to admit it.

I'm tending to favor the NAM/ETA right about now. It has verified quite well for several runs, and it continues to do so. I don't know what the GFS is about to spit out in an hour and a half, but I think it will be a lot closer to this line of thinking.

Rita is going to slow imensley as she comes ashore. She probably won't make landfall for over 48 hours. Hopefully this will lead to weakening as she is in the shallow waters over the coast. By contrast, it will dump a lot more rain over Houston. I think landfall just east of Freeport is where she'll come ashore.

Then, when she does make landfall, she's not going very far north of Houston. She'll sit there for days, dumping rain. Tropical Storm Allison anyone?

Once the trof digs in from the west, she'll be pushed to the southwest along the high pressure that will develop over Arizona and untill the trof comes and lifts her out.

Take it for what its worth. I'm not trained, but this scenairo makes the most sense by looking at the 500mb winds and how the NAM has played out. I think the GFS will definetly catch onto it on the next few runs. We'll see, but I'm sticking to this.

[boutons]

The New York Times

September 22, 2005

Rita's Rains Start Falling on New Orleans

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 11:04 p.m. ET

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- In a grim opening salvo from Hurricane Rita, a steady rain began falling Thursday on New Orleans for the first time since Katrina laid waste to the city, and engineers rushed to shore up the broken levees for fear of another ruinous round of flooding.

The forecast called for 3 to 5 inches of rain in New Orleans in the coming days. That is dangerously close to the amount engineers said could send floodwaters pouring back into neighborhoods that have been dry for less than a week.

The storm took a sharper-than-expected turn to the right on Thursday, setting it on a course that could spare Houston and nearby Galveston a direct hit. But that raised the risk that the hurricane could strike much closer to New Orleans.

''Right now, it's a wait-and-see and hope-for-the-best,'' Army Corps of Engineers spokesman Mitch Frazier said a few hours before the National Guard cut off all access into New Orleans.

He said the forecast brought renewed urgency to efforts to shore up levees with sandbags and bring in more portable pumps. The corps also installed 60-foot sections of metal across some of the city's canals to protect against storm surges.

The lack of rain since Hurricane Katrina ripped through the city more than three weeks ago has been one of the few blessings for New Orleans. On Thursday, relief workers at Mardi Gras World, the city's largest builder of parade floats, handed out free tarpaulins to homeowners to keep Rita's rain from coming through their damaged roofs.

The entire Mississippi delta region was under a tropical storm warning. To the west of New Orleans, the storm was expected to bring 15 to 20 inches of rain to southwestern Louisiana. Gov. Kathleen Blanco resorted to campaign tactics, recording a telephone message that was delivered to more than 400,000 residents along the southern edge of the state.

''Rita has Louisiana in her sights,'' Blanco said at a news conference. ''Head north. You cannot go east, you cannot go west. If you know the local roads that go north, take those.''

As for those who refuse to leave, she said: ''Perhaps they should write their Social Security numbers on their arms with indelible ink.''

National Guard and medical units were put on standby. Helicopters were being positioned, and search-and-rescue boats from the state wildlife department were staged on high ground on the edge of Rita's projected path. Blanco said she also asked for 15,000 more federal troops.

''Prepare your family and prepare your house,'' she warned. ''I'm urging Louisiana citizens to take this storm very seriously.''

Forecasters said the storm was expected to come ashore on the Texas coast and turn north along a path not far from the Louisiana state line. It was a chilling prediction for the town of Lake Charles, not far from the border.

''At first, our evacuation orders were just for the low-lying areas, but now it's the entire Calcasieu Parish,'' said Cindy Murphy, a manager at the police bureau in Lake Charles. ''We've got buses running continuously to get residents out. We're trying to learn from other areas, not to repeat their mistakes.''

A traffic jam of evacuees extended from Houston and other Texas cities well into Louisiana, with Interstate 10 congested from Lake Charles to Baton Rouge. State police said the biggest backups were at exits where cars stacked up in long lines of motorists trying to get gasoline.

Janell LeDoux and her husband spent six hours on the freeway and covered just 80 miles from their home near Lake Charles east to Lafayette. And they were only halfway to her sister's house in eastern Louisiana.

''I just hope we have something left to go home to. Not like in New Orleans,'' she said. Four gas stations in Lafayette had run dry. A fifth station had only premium.

Glynn Stevenson -- who swam out of his New Orleans house with belongings taped to his body -- had just gotten settled in New Iberia in a trailer provided by the Federal Emergency Management Authority when the call came for him to uproot again.

''You can't do nothin' about it,'' he said. ''All you can do is praise the Lord.''

Katrina's death toll in Louisiana rose to 832 on Thursday, pushing the body count to at least 1,069 across the Gulf Coast. But workers under contract to the state to collect the bodies were taken off the streets of New Orleans because of the approaching storm.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin continued to urge residents to leave. A mandatory evacuation order was in effect for homes on the eastern bank of the Mississippi, and police said people in the city's Algiers section on the other side of the river would be wise to get out, too. But thousands stayed put.

''I'm not going. I'm sticking it out,'' said Florida Richardson, who was sitting on her front porch in the Algiers Point neighborhood and holding her grandson on her lap. ''This house is 85 years old. It's seen a lot of tornadoes and a lot of hurricanes. You can't run from the power of God.''

Up the street, Michael Briscoe said: ''If you're a true New Orleanian, you've got to go down with the ship. How can you leave?''

Nagin said he was confident most people had left the city and tried to remain optimistic about New Orleans' future.

''Up until Rita, everyone was pretty upbeat,'' Nagin said during a blustery outdoor news conference amid intermittent rain. ''Now that Rita has come into the picture, it's been difficult.''

In the lower Ninth Ward, where water broke through a levee and caused some of the worst flooding, there was standing water a foot deep in areas that were dry a day earlier. Chad Rachel, a civil engineer with the Army corps, said the water level in the canal was rising and ''localized seepage'' was inevitable.

''Any drop of rain that falls is going to stay,'' he said.

At a shelter in Baton Rouge, 75 miles northwest of New Orleans, the topic of the day was Rita and what more rain might do to battered neighborhoods back home. Some evacuees said they could not bear to track Rita's progress.

''Everyone is running from Rita,'' added Timothy Parker of New Orleans. ''I don't watch no TV; it's too depressing. My house is gone and everything. You ain't sorrier than me, you couldn't imagine.''

Along the Louisiana coast, the road leading out of the fishing community of Cypremort Point was filled with pickup trucks hauling boats.

''Since Katrina, everybody seems a little nervous. They don't want to get pulled from rooftops,'' said Billy Landry, a marina manager who planned to haul thousands of soft-shell crabs to safety.

One man who remained through Hurricane Lili in 2002 was not about to leave this time.

''I've got alligator lines to set,'' said Titus Landry, who hunts the animals for a living. ''I'll put my truck on high ground, and if the water gets higher than I expected and into my house, I'll climb up in a tree.''

^------

Associated Press writers Adam Nossiter in New Orleans, Brett Martel in Cypremort Point, Julia Silverman in Lafayette and Doug Simpson in Baton Rouge contributed to this report.

* Copyright 2005 The Associated Press

[boutons]

MannyBonics, it's "trough", not "trof".

Don't worry. It's an Anglo-Saxon word, not a Graeco-Latin :)

But the rest of your written English is coming along really well.

[MannyIsGod]

Hey asshole, it is trof. :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html



Shortwave Trof: An upper level disturbance usually embedded in the flow aloft. Relatively quick moving. Usually produces unsettled weather.

Longwave Trof: A large dip in the upper level jetstream. Slow moving. Usually produces unsettled weather.

Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.

Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.

[Hook Dem]

The NHC is wrong, and they're just being slow to admit it.

I'm tending to favor the NAM/ETA right about now. It has verified quite well for several runs, and it continues to do so. I don't know what the GFS is about to spit out in an hour and a half, but I think it will be a lot closer to this line of thinking.

Rita is going to slow imensley as she comes ashore. She probably won't make landfall for over 48 hours. Hopefully this will lead to weakening as she is in the shallow waters over the coast. By contrast, it will dump a lot more rain over Houston. I think landfall just east of Freeport is where she'll come ashore.

Then, when she does make landfall, she's not going very far north of Houston. She'll sit there for days, dumping rain. Tropical Storm Allison anyone?

Once the trof digs in from the west, she'll be pushed to the southwest along the high pressure that will develop over Arizona and untill the trof comes and lifts her out.

Take it for what its worth. I'm not trained, but this scenairo makes the most sense by looking at the 500mb winds and how the NAM has played out. I think the GFS will definetly catch onto it on the next few runs. We'll see, but I'm sticking to this.
I agree with you Manny! Good call!

[Ginofan]

Hey asshole, it is trof. :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html



Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.

Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.

:lmao :lmao :lmao

[Hook Dem]

Hey asshole, it is trof. :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html



Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.

Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.
:lol Boutons = Owned! :lol

[Manu20]

area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Tx
800 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

.discussion...made Adjustments To The Wind Field To Agree With Our
Current Watches And Warnings Earlier. Powerful Hurricane Rita Was
Located Near Latitude 26.0 North...longitude 89.9 West Or About 350
Miles...565 Km...east-southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 290
Miles...465 Km...southeast Of Cameron Louisiana...or 470 Miles East
Of Brownsville. Jogs And Wobbles Of This Massive Natural Structure
Makes One Skiddish To Drop Any Watches Or Warnings Along Coast Areas
Of Deep South Texas...with One Model Still Persisting On The Chance
For Westward Progression Toward Our Area With Time. By The 00z Runs
And Subsequent Analysis...a More Prudent Decision Can Be Made As To
Any Dangers Posed By This Hurricane To Residents Of The Rio Grande
Valley.

With This In Mind...will Not Change Or Recommend Change At 10 Pm
Issuance Of Advisory 22 To Our Current Watches And Warnings In
Effect For The Cwa.

[spurs=bling]

http://re2.mm-c1.yimg.com/image/1014622231

sorry to post this but i need you guys to humor me please i'am going through a lot of stress. we had to go gas up today because they told us that we would not have any by tonight. so i need some humor guys please.

[MannyIsGod]

There are tons of humor threads in this forum, and you want us to humor you in this one? :wtf

[Ginofan]

http://re2.mm-c1.yimg.com/image/1014622231

sorry to post this but i need you guys to humor me please i'am going through a lot of stress. we had to go gas up today because they told us that we would not have any by tonight. so i need some humor guys please.

Well this is a hurricane thread...an informational one at that...I doubt there will be much humor..mostly weather nerd discussion stuff...

[spurs=bling]

There are tons of humor threads in this forum, and you want us to humor you in this one? :wtf
dude my aunt is still stuck in traffic somewhere and this is about rita k.
i really need to get rid of this worry.

[midgetonadonkey]

dude my aunt is still stuck in traffic somewhere and this is about rita k.
i really need to get rid of this worry.

I have my uncle and 2 cousins still in Galveston because "they want to keep looters away." So at least your Aunt is driving out. I'm not worried though because shit that happens is supposed to happen so fuck it.

I'm worried as fuck but there isn't much that anyone can do now but wait.

[spurs=bling]

I have my uncle and 2 cousins still in Galveston because "they want to keep looters away." So at least your Aunt is driving out. I'm not worried though because shit that happens is supposed to happen so fuck it.

I'm worried as fuck but there isn't much that anyone can do now but wait.

she wanted to go back to galveston but my dad talked her out of it. i just wish the traffic lanes start moving faster because by the looks of it it gonna take lots of hours for everybody to leave the traffic (sigh)

[midgetonadonkey]

she wanted to go back to galveston but my dad talked her out of it. i just wish the traffic lanes start moving faster because by the looks of it it gonna take lots of hours for everybody to leave the traffic (sigh)

Don't worry, they'll get out before it gets here.

[spurs=bling]

Don't worry, they'll get out before it gets here.
i hope so.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I keep praying this thing weakens. Whoever it hits, is fuuuuckked.

[MannyIsGod]

dude my aunt is still stuck in traffic somewhere and this is about rita k.
i really need to get rid of this worry.
I emphathize, but I don't know what you expect from people posting in a thread about the hurricane. My girlfriends family is in Houston right now. It is hitting close to all of us.

But, I'm going to post hurricane related information in this thread; I'm not going to turn it into some knock off thread. Thats what the Quattro is for.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

They showed a simulation of what will happen to the Galveston/Houston area if this thing hits Galveston head on a while ago on Fox.

Galveston went from being a large island to a sliver of land about 10 square city blocks :(

[Jekka]

dude my aunt is still stuck in traffic somewhere and this is about rita k.
i really need to get rid of this worry.

Oh my god! How could I forget that it's all about you?!

[Vashner]

Now now.. no need to be nasty..

[Marcus Bryant]

I can sympathize. I went about 4 days waiting to hear from relatives after Katrina. At least you know that they will be getting out.

[xcoriate]

Hey asshole, it is trof. :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html



Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.

Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.

Shit hot, fuck you boutons...


Good.


Now, best of luck to you all hopefully this weakens and has minimal effects.

Stay well.

[Vashner]

Well I hope the Flower Gardens don't get damaged... they are deep at 70+ feet but are salt domes... so I big storm could cause some damage...

http://www.tomsscuba.com/fgarden/fgdescription.htm

http://www.tomsscuba.com/fgarden/images/fgbasemap.jpg

http://flowergarden.noaa.gov/

[MannyIsGod]

Are those the 2 things I always see depicted in the Gulf as islands? Damned if Mandy and I weren't trying to figure out wtf that was on the maps.

[MannyIsGod]

Nope, the 2 things we noticed are near 90 degrees and 25 degrees. Damn for a second I thought you had answered my question.

[Vashner]

There are some sunken ships and artificial reefs in the area. Mostly closer to shore.

At the Marine park commercial ships have to go around the area.. Also it could be them just with a false label?

[MannyIsGod]

I don't know for sure, but Jess and I are searching all of the internets. We'll find out something.

[MannyIsGod]

Vash, they are the 2 bumps right in the middle of the damn Gulf. Any idea? I hate not having an answer, but this is hard to come by. Maybe an underwater Area 51??? :lol

http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/gazette/jpg/bathymetry/gm.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

If anyone wants to watch a Houston TV station, here is a link. Kinda like WWLTV out of NOLA.

http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx

[Vashner]

Those black splotches in the center between yucatan and Louisiana?

Maybe it's a trench left over from that Yucatan crater ELE event?

http://www.space.com/images/h_chicxulub_02.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Watching the feed, they are talking about TXDOT gas trucks going around to help the people who have run out of gas. This is pretty crazy. Basically giving away gas.

[Vashner]

I would say it's the biggest human evacuation in the history of mankind?

Here is another interesting site... Oil Rigz..

http://gom.rigzone.com/

[Vashner]

Just heard Dubya is gonna be here in SA town today... (unconfirmed)..

[Ginofan]

Nope, the 2 things we noticed are near 90 degrees and 25 degrees. Damn for a second I thought you had answered my question.

Dude it has be to be Sigsbee Knolls...there's nothing else out there! Or maybe I just really want to be right...:lol

[SpursWoman]

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 230852
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 23
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
4 Am Cdt Fri Sep 23 2005

...extremely Dangerous Category Four Rita Moving Northwestward Into
The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Southeastern Coast Of
Louisiana East Of Morgan City To The Mouth Of The Pearl River
Including Metropolitan New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain....and
From South Of Port O'connor To Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Some Portions Of
The Tropical Storm Warning In Texas Could Be Discontinued Later
Today.

At 4 Am Cdt...0900z...the Tropical Storm Watch Is Discontinued For
The Texas Coast South Of Port Mansfield And For Northeastern
Mexico.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 4 Am Cdt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 26.8 North...longitude 91.0 West Or About 290 Miles
Southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 250 Miles Southeast Of
Cameron Louisiana.

Rita Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...and This General
Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours. On This
Track...the Core Of Rita Will Be Approaching The Southwest
Louisiana And Upper Texas Coasts Late Today Or Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 140 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Rita
Is An Extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are Expected
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The
Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 205 Miles. An Automated Station Operated By Louisiana State
University Near The Southeast Louisiana Coast Recently Reported
Sustained Winds Of 55 Mph With A Gust Of 65 Mph At An Elevation Of
130 Ft.

The Minimum Central Pressure Just Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is 927 Mb...27.37 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The East Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.
Tides Are Currently Running About 2 Feet Above Normal Along The
Louisiana...mississippi And Alabama Coasts In The Areas Affected By
Katrina. Tides In Those Areas Will Increase To 3 To 5 Feet And Be
Accompanied By Large Waves...and Residents There Could Experience
Coastal Flooding. Large Swells Generated By Rita Will Likely Affect
Most Portions Of The Gulf Coast.

Rita Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12
Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Over
Southeastern Texas And Southwestern Louisiana As It Moves Inland.
Since Rita Is Forecast To Slow Down Significantly After Making
Landfall...total Accumulations In Excess Of 25 Inches Are Possible
Over The Next Several Days Across Eastern Texas And Western
Louisiana. In Addition...rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are
Possible Over Southeastern Louisiana Including Metropolitan New
Orleans.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Today Over Portions Of Southeastern
Texas And Southern Louisiana.

Repeating The 4 Am Cdt Position...26.8 N... 91.0 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...140 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 927 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 7 Am Cdt Followed By The Next
Complete Advisory At 10 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Beven

[Ginofan]

Okay, if I'm reading the 06UTC loops of the NAM and the GFS they both show that it does stall a little bit when it gets inland, but then they show it drifting off to the east after that. Can anyone confirm this so I know I'm looking at the right thing?

[travis2]

Yes. Both NAM and GFS show Rita heading east.

[travis2]

Both NAM and GFS are now saying that SA isn't going to get jack squat from Rita.

[SpursWoman]

Both NAM and GFS are now saying that SA isn't going to get jack squat from Rita.


That's not true....we've gotten a shitload of birds. At 281 & Jones Maltsberger...all I can say......I'm just glad I closed my sunroof. :wow :vomit :lmao

[travis2]

A real shitload, eh?

[SpursWoman]

I guess I could have phrased that... "We got a lot of birds that were full of shit." :lol

[Manu20]

Both NAM and GFS show Rita heading east.
Until they show some consistency with every run I will believe it.

[travis2]

Well, the NAM 12Z has started...let's see what it says this time...

[spurster]

It took my sister "only" 14 hours yesterday to get from Houston to SA. She wandered on back roads north of I10. People staying on I10 had it much worse.

I bet no matter what there will still be quite a few people in Houston when it hits. This evacuation plan (or lack of one) pretty much sucks.

[CosmicCowboy]

It took my sister "only" 14 hours yesterday to get from Houston to SA. She wandered on back roads north of I10. People staying on I10 had it much worse.

I bet no matter what there will still be quite a few people in Houston when it hits. This evacuation plan (or lack of one) pretty much sucks.

What the hell did you expect? There are 5 million people in the metroplex. The ones that left early didn't have any problems. The ones that procrastinated and waited till the last minute all hit the road at the same time...

[Ginofan]

Until they show some consistency with every run I will believe it.

Yeah I thought it was kind of odd that the NAM changed so much, the previous few runs were similiar in bringing the storm south and to the west somewhat, then all of a sudden it goes east and slightly north in that last run. Guess we'll see what happens.

[SpursWoman]

What the hell did you expect? There are 5 million people in the metroplex. The ones that left early didn't have any problems. The ones that procrastinated and waited till the last minute all hit the road at the same time...


Spurminator had a good reply to that kind of criticism, too:


I agree, they should have either ordered the mandatory evacuation 2 months ago or built more highways last week.


Duh. :lol

[spurster]

What the hell did you expect? There are 5 million people in the metroplex. The ones that left early didn't have any problems. The ones that procrastinated and waited till the last minute all hit the road at the same time...
My sister left about 4am yesterday, which is about 2 days ahead of the hurricane's landfall. That's hardly the last minute. Sure, people who left last week had no problems.

What happened is that a lot of people decided not to wait until today, which is more like your last minute.

[travis2]

YGBSM...

NAM shows Rita stalling hard about 12 hours from now...and turning left.

I think someone is yanking our chains...:pctoss

:lol

[travis2]

OK, NAM is back to center-punching Galveston about 7AM tomorrow...

[CosmicCowboy]

My point is that you criticized the "plan"...As I remember it they were recommending evacuation Monday in Galveston and low lying areas and Houston on Tuesday...My relatives boarded up Tuesday morning and left mid-day Tuesday and drove through with no problems. Anyone who has experienced a rush hour in Houston should know that if you wait till 2 days before impact to leave that the roads will be gridlocked.

[Manu20]

Rita: NO CHANGES ON TRACK. LANDFALL NEAR GLS, THEN SLOW MOVE UP I-45 CORRIDOR. STORM TRAP SET AND BACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER POST LATER, BUT MAJOR DISASTER SCENARIO MAY COME TO PASS...EVEN BEYOND THE OBVIOUS OF 930-950 MB HURRICANE HIT.

[travis2]

Yeah, he was on Hannity yesterday...I posted something on that...

[travis2]

Hannity had Joe Bastardi from AccuWeather on at the top of the hour...

He laid down his prediction...

Landfall Sat. between 3 and 6 AM, Galveston +/- 25 miles.

Up 45 to Dallas

Left hook down 35 to SA and Laredo

:wow

[SWC Bonfire]

The best analogy that I have is it is like rats fleeing a shinking ship. It was solid gridlock on my little county highway that normally has 1-2 cars max at the 4-way stop.

There were approx. 200 cars around the diamond shamrock station on I10 in Luling this morning; I hate to think what the Love's and Buckees looked like just down the road on 183.

I sure hope all these people go back to Houston!

[Marcus Bryant]

How do you come up with a bulletproof evacuation plan for 2+ million people over 48 hours? That's what I don't get. News of this hurricane wasn't sprung on everyone yesterday.

[SWC Bonfire]

Psst! If you live by the Gulf of Mexico, you will have to worry about hurricanes - this should have been foreseen.

[Manu20]

As of 10pm CDT Rita has winds of 135 mph with gusts to 160mph and the minimum pressure is 929mb.

[Spurminator]

If only they had a few hundred Spruce Mooses to line up at Hobby and Bush Intercontinental.

[Manu20]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 24


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 23, 2005



Rita has weakened since yesterday. The eye is not as distinct and
the convection is not as intense as 24 hours ago. This is consistent
with the central pressure which has risen to around 927 mb and
winds have decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted down
to 115 knots. Unless another eyewall cycle occurs that could bring
the winds temporarily up a little bit...the overall tendency is for
Rita to weaken gradually. So far the passage of Rita over the warm
eddy in the Gulf of Mexico has not resulted in intensification.
However...research suggests there is a lag in the atmospheric
response. Nevertherless...Rita is expected to make landfall as
category 3 or...a little less likely...category 4 intensity.

Upper-air data shows that the high pressure system controlling the
motion of the hurricane is already north and east of Rita and is
centered over Arkansas and Tennessee. Consequently...Rita has turned
more to the northwest and is now moving 310 degrees at 9 knots. No
significant change in track is anticipated before landfall near the
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast early Saturday. Once
inland...the steering currents are forecast to collapse and Rita is
expected to move little over northeastern Texas and southwestern
Arkansas. Rita by then will likely produce torrential rains. The
official forecast follows very closely the model consensus.

Rita is a large hurricane and tropical storm force winds extend
outward a great distance. A sond dropped from a reconnaissance
plane measured 56 knots surface winds about 120 N mi west of the
eye.

Forecaster Avila

[SWC Bonfire]

"Spruce Goose", I think.