Steel and aluminum tariffs...

[Winehole23]

pretextual investigation to support pretextual tariffs is a bit more proper


In a process that is likely to result in a fresh round of tariffs in the near future, the Office of U.S. Trade Representative is opening the formal probes into major trade partners that include the European Union, Mexico and China — each of which ranks among the top five sources of U.S. imports.



Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Japan and India will also be the targets of investigations under the trade statute known as Section 301.


“These investigations will focus on economies that we have evidence appear to exhibit structural excess capacity and production in various manufacturing sectors, such as through larger, persistent trade surpluses or underutilized or unused capacity,” said U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on a call with reporters Wednesday.


“We expect that this investigation will uncover a variety of unfair trading practices,” Greer added.
Greer said the U.S. would also be moving to launch an investigation related to the import of goods made with “forced labor,” in a second announcement set for later this week.
https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/march/ustr-initiates-section-301-investigations-relating-structural-excess-capacity-and-production

[Winehole23]

does Trump realize he's already mashing the button that makes prices go up before these new tariffs?

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump is dangerous. I called this shit the day they started this. It was so fucking predictable how they would respond. They are mining the damn strait and there is not a fucking thing we can do about it.

[Winehole23]

tariffs are still inflationary


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigjmx6zp2drbbkdr3qvf6agyhztq5ggxuqteki2zhloj zrydwazim

[Winehole23]

Trump is determined to raise taxes on US companies


The Trump administration this week stepped up its ambitious effort to replace about $1.6 trillion in lost tariff revenue that was eliminated by the Supreme Court’s decision (https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-tariffs-trump-0485fcda30a7310501123e4931dba3f9) to strike down a range of the president’s import taxes.
Recovering that lost revenue, which the White House was counting on to help offset the steep, multi-trillion dollar cost of its tax cuts (https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-budget-deficit-taxes-447ab174f84d67fea5023bbe02dd60e0), is possible but will be challenging, experts say. The administration has to use different legal provisions (https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-ieepa-a3e43fe91fa8335eac383921bed55f7e) to impose new duties, and those provisions require longer, complex processes that U.S. companies can use to seek exemptions. It could be months or more before it is clear how much revenue the replacement tariffs will yield.


“I wouldn’t bet against this administration being able to get back on paper the same effective tariff rate they had before,” said Elena Patel, co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. But the new approach will “make it easier for people to contest the tariffs, which is going to put a big asterisk on the revenue until all that is settled.”
https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-trump-trade-275f146dbc591bab1730a911e04aa8ea

[Winehole23]

"People" are dropping Trump in the frying pan

JD Vance was only the first

There's no ostensible reason to do it if there's an available solution that can quickly reopen the strait

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ttlo47nsxjsrcoph5rzsejc5/bafkreigg3enluhuadhethoaehbbvfyvrbn54eq63zykexu3ui g4nqmzogy

[velik_m]

It’s not just oil: Aluminum prices have surged as Iran conflict chokes supply

The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran has upended the supply of aluminum in the Middle East, sending prices of the base metal skyrocketing.

While aluminum may be the most abundant metal on earth, it is crucial to the function of the world economy.

It is an essential material across electronics, transport, and construction, as well as other industries such as solar panels and packaging.

At the outbreak of the Iran conflict on Feb. 28, 3-month LME aluminum futures initially jumped by as much as 10% by March 12 before paring some gains to land around 8% higher, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a significant disruption to supply.

...

The answer as to where the price could be headed next lies with China, according to other analysts.

China is the biggest producer of aluminum and tends to keep production constrained at 45.5 million tons per year to reduce emissions and prevent overcapacity issues.

“If the Chinese government decides that the prices are too high they can restart a number of idle smelters in the country and the world will be full of aluminum,” Artem Volynets, CEO of miner ACG Metals, told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition on Wednesday.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/why-aluminum-surged-iran-war.html

[Winehole23]

Trump did the one thing that can cause a worldwide recession and rampant inflation at the same time

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4jnnwduuahcjt4x5dkwjwgt3/bafkreidinmd26rrkfc4ppjeknuesxa2orou37t5aeonnkgxbm clettwz2yh​ttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm

[velik_m]

Trump promised a manufacturing boom, but factory jobs continue to decline (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-promised-a-manufacturing-boom-but-factory-jobs-continue-to-decline)

[velik_m]

Sony hikes PS5 prices by up to $150 citing ‘pressures’ in global economy

Sony on Friday said it will raise prices on its range of flagship PlayStation 5 consoles for the second time in less than a year, citing “pressures in the global economic landscape.”

In the U.S, the PS5 disc edition will jump from $549.99 to $649.99, a $100 increase from the last time Sony hiked prices of the console last year. The digital edition of the device will also rise $100 to $599.99. The PS5 Pro, Sony’s most powerful version of the console, gets a $150 hike to $899.99.

The price rises take effect on April 2.

“We know that price changes impact our community, and after careful evaluation, we found this was a necessary step to ensure we can continue delivering innovative, high-quality gaming experiences to players worldwide,” Sony said in a blog post.

When Sony raised prices globally last year, it was against the backdrop of continually high inflation and uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/sony-playstation-5-ps5-price-rise.html

[velik_m]

The World's Dumbest Tariff Has Been Revealed

...

So far, this is a standard US tariff story, but aluminum isn’t a standard product. According to the US Geological Survey, imports constituted approximately 60% of domestic consumption last year, even with high tariffs. This dependence does not reflect “unfair trade” but deep structural realities. Aluminum production is extremely electricity-intensive, and US power prices – along with fierce competition for electricity from AI and other high-value industries – have made smelting uneconomical relative to regions with abundant power and access to the core inputs bauxite and alumina.

In just the last few years, primary aluminum smelters in Washington, Missouri, and Kentucky have each shut down, and production has declined. Now, only four smelters are in operation, just two at full capacity. And this contraction occurred despite tariff protection expressly intended to boost output.

Taxes, regulations, and permitting burdens add to the headwinds, as do the cost and complexity of bringing a modern smelter online. Thus, the one new US facility under development in power-rich Oklahoma won't start until 2030 at the earliest. Until then, and likely well beyond, America will continue to depend on imports to keep store shelves stocked and factories running – and tariffs will continue to impose major costs.

...

Making matters worse, an easy solution to the aluminum shortfall lies next door – or, at least, it did. Canada has long been America's largest aluminum supplier, thanks to abundant hydroelectricity that gives its producers a decisive cost and environmental advantage. Canadian aluminum is also deeply integrated into US defense supply chains because the nation is a close ally that was officially made part of America’s Defense Industrial Base in 1993. With Canada specializing in primary smelting and the US focused on downstream fabrication and manufacturing, bilateral trade and investment flourished. Today, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Corp. owns three Canadian smelters that collectively churn out almost 30% of the nation’s total output.

Comparative advantage was working exactly as advertised – until we blew it up. As Bloomberg News reported in September, Trump’s 50% tariff and removal of an exemption for Canada drove producers there to send US-bound shipments to Europe instead. In just a few months, Aluminerie Alouette – North America's largest smelter – saw its European sales rise from 4% of production to 57%. Rio Tinto Plc largely stopped shipping Canadian aluminum to the US, and even Alcoa diverted around 100,000 metric tons to non-US destinations.

These shifts are already coming back to bite the United States. With tariffs pushing Canadian aluminum elsewhere last year, American companies became “increasingly reliant” on imports from the Middle East, with almost a quarter of unwrought aluminum coming from the UAE and Bahrain. Those sources are now imperiled by the Iran war, and Canadian producers, already operating at full capacity, won’t shift back to the US market while the tariff wall remains - if ever.

Overall, aluminum protectionism has been a confounding own-goal. Tariffs haven’t just raised prices and harmed American manufacturers; they’ve actively pushed a top producer and close ally out of our market, with shrinking domestic sources unable to fill the gap. Given the metal’s role in the US defense industrial base, aluminum-related risks are likely higher today than they were before “national security” tariffs were ever enacted.
...



https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-27/the-tariff-on-aluminum-is-the-world-s-dumbest

[Blake]

Another thread that tsa will never visit ever again

[Winehole23]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-27/the-tariff-on-aluminum-is-the-world-s-dumbestAmerica First policy is empirically harmful to America

[Winehole23]

Impeach and remove

or 25th amendment

[Winehole23]

the tariff-induced goods recession is hitting trucking and logistics


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihwnzes4mi6cjgilpkj64tvgg2sdqhjk32eu32wyhshc a74s6sioihttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-bankruptcies-mount-in-march-as-trucking-logistics-firms-file-chapter-11

[Winehole23]

below trend blue collar job growth

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiavu3mkaea6i6dbl2twwgbkukpzyx6yy2gdic37neroz zbxzcr6km

[velik_m]

Trump said wind power is for ‘stupid people.’ Here’s what European countries did 5 days later

In a speech at Davos last month, President Donald Trump railed against “windmills” as “losers” and called nations that buy them “stupid people.” Just five days later, nine European countries signed a deal to build a vast offshore wind power hub in the North Sea, the epicenter of the continent’s oil and gas industry.

The deal — not a direct response to Trump’s wind-bashing speech — offers an immense potential prize for Europe: it could increase energy security and wean the continent off its heavy dependence on US oil and gas at a time when the US is proving to be a volatile partner.

Europe is one of many energy-importing economic powers increasingly seeing renewables as synonymous with energy independence: India is adding solar at a rapid clip and China installed more wind and solar in 2024 than the total amount of renewable energy operating in the US.

The US is in stark opposition, going all in on fossil fuels while trying to shut down wind and solar projects. On energy, the US is now more “aligned with petrostates like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Russia,” said Thijs Van de Graaf, an associate professor of international politics at Ghent University.
...



https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/19/climate/trump-wind-europe-clean-energy-independence

[Winehole23]

chaining America to a regressive industrial base is a catastrophe for the USA, but I see how it can benefit Trump short term

[velik_m]

China now tops US in global approval ratings: Gallup

Global approval of China surpassed the U.S. in 2025, the widest favorability gap between the two countries in almost 20 years, according to a new Gallup poll released Friday.

Gallup found that China’s global approval rating last year reached a median of 36 percent in support of the country’s leadership. U.S. leadership saw its median approval rating drop to 31 percent, a fall of 8 percentage points since 2024. China’s approval rose from 32 percent in 2024.

Disapproval of China’s leadership remained flat at 37 percent, Gallup found. U.S. leadership’s disapproval reached a record-high of 48 percent.

Last year was the second year on record where both countries registered negative net global approval ratings. The median net approval for China dipped to -1, with the U.S. dropping down to a median net approval of -15, the lowest on record.
...



https://thehill.com/policy/international/5816375-china-global-approval-surpasses-us-gallup/

[Blake]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5816375-china-global-approval-surpasses-us-gallup/

Making China Great Again

[Blake]

A year after Liberation Day, what really has happened in the U.S. economy? Have tariffs had the impacts Trump claimed they would? We are giving you, the reader, the power to guess for yourself. Draw on the charts below what you think happened to the trade deficit, trade with China and tariff revenue, among other metrics, and then see how correctly you guessed.....

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/TARIFF-ANNIVERSARY/myvmybzwbvr/

It'd be funny if it weren't so devastating.

How's Korea, tsa?

[Winehole23]

CBP to refund Trump's illegal tariffs starting today

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/how-to-file-for-tariff-refund/

[Blake]

CBP to refund Trump's illegal tariffs starting today

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/how-to-file-for-tariff-refund/

How much are we getting back as consumers for paying for the price hikes?

Oh right, $0.

[Winehole23]

the average US family paid ~$1700 in tariffs last year

[Blake]

the average US family paid ~$1700 in tariffs last year

Walmart will get their money back and continue on most likely without lowering all of the items that went up because of the tariffs.

[Winehole23]

:lmao


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:x7srox3it3f7oynvzjbfeq4e/bafkreida3okwdjmoce2p32mgkkssl6cngcgdatd4ps4oq2u6o ykxyvuirm

"Auto plants are all coming back to our country. They're coming back from different countries where they left us for Germany and Japan and South Korea, Canada, Mexico. And they're all coming back at levels that nobody has ever seen before. Tariffs did it. I did it."

[Winehole23]

Walmart will get their money back and continue on most likely without lowering all of the items that went up because of the tariffs.pricing is often a one way ratchet

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifw2eq3w4qpkq5dvtlk3vlcroqjmi3gbapiycxdwhx42 ycmyo4nei

[Winehole23]

Section 122 tariffs struck down in the Federal Court of International Trade


Accepting as true every factual statement in Proclamation No. 11012, the surcharge imposed by the Proclamation rests on the existence of a large trade deficit, a current account deficit, a negative net international investment position, and a deficit on the balance on primary and secondary income (which are part of the current account). Proclamation No. 11012

The Proclamation asserts that “the United States runs a trade deficit, does not currently make a net income from the capital and labor that it deploys abroad, and experiences more transfer payments, on net, flowing out of the country than into the country.” Id. ¶ 7. Nowhere does Proclamation No. 11012 identify balance-of-payments deficits within the meaning of Section 122 as it was enacted in 1974. See generally Proclamation No. 11012. Because the Proclamation’s use of trade and current account deficits to stand in the place of balance-of-payment deficits within the meaning of the statute renders the Proclamation ultra vires, the court need not reach the arguments of whether Section 122 requires the identification of “fundamental international payments problems” or whether the exemptions provided in the Proclamation are lawful. See Trump v. Hawaii, 585 U.S. 667, 703 (2018) (requiring a “facially legitimate and bona fide” reason for Executive action (citation omitted)). Proclamation No. 11012 is invalid, and the tariffs imposed on Plaintiffs are unauthorized by law.38

https://www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/files/26-47.pdf

[Winehole23]

tariffs and Trump's war of choice fucked up Whirlpool

when Trump laid the tariffs, the cost of industrial inputs went up



This week, however, the company said that revenue dropped nearly 10% in its most recent quarter and sales of major appliances in North America tumbled 7%.

Whirlpool announced a 10% price hike in April, its largest in a decade, and said that a separate 4% price increase will happen in July to address “multiyear inflationary cost pressures”.
The company had absorbed the higher costs, choosing not to pass them on to customers, but that must change after the company posted a first quarter loss of $82m, reversing last year’s gains.

Marc Bitzer, the CEO, said on Thursday that the North American slide in sales has a precedent.

“This level of industry decline is similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods,” he said during a conference call.

Whirlpool said that its performance had been affected by the supreme court’s recent decision to strike down Trump’s emergency tariffs. Rival appliance makers are seeking refunds to reduce the impact of those tariffs, disrupting pricing in the industry further.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/07/whirlpool-recession-sales-iran-tariffs

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bdvnkv3wu5kgtmvto4xsp6on/bafkreid3kzzdprkr44pvre4jafgbdjqxhsvemhlh4kd4mfmec q5b764hyy

[ChumpDumper]

I guess they have to be murdered by Trumptards.

Oh well.

[ChumpDumper]

TARIFFS WORK!

2053869395550572926

https://x.com/WSJ/status/2053869395550572926

[velik_m]

Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May 2023

Prices that consumers pay for a wide range of goods and services increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, as another burst in energy prices raised further concerns about inflation’s impact on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively, keeping inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal as the monthly rate was the highest since January 2025. Fed officials consider core a better indicator of longer-term inflation trends.

The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since May 2023 and was up half a percentage point from March. Core inflation rose 0.2 percentage point annually.

...

The report also contained bad news for workers, as real average hourly wages slipped 0.5% for the month and fell 0.3% annually.

Stock market futures were negative following the report while Treasury yields were higher. Traders also raised the odds for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year to about 30%, according to CME Group data.

“Inflation is the key drag on the U.S. economy now,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “This is hurting Americans. There is a real financial squeeze underway. For the first time in three years, inflation is eating up all wage gains. This is a setback for middle-class and lower-income households and they know it.”

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreic6kq4gs3wzdtngsmilrsiurpbckkyf6klh3rtp4lfdu telvbueme

[velik_m]

Italy Ditches Boeing and Buys Airbus. The Decision Says More Than It Seems

After fifteen years of flying Boeing tankers, Italy has signed a €1.39 billion contract with Airbus for six A330 MRTT multi-role tanker transport aircraft. The contract was signed on 16 April 2026 and made public through the EU's TED procurement portal on 19 May. It is the largest single defence aviation purchase Italy has made in years, and the political symbolism is impossible to miss.

...

The KC-46 Pegasus has had a troubled development history. An Accident Investigation Board report released in August 2025 documented $23 million of damage caused by the aircraft's refuelling boom nozzle binding to receiving aircraft in three separate incidents. The aircraft's Remote Vision System suffered from image distortion, poor depth perception and sensitivity to dynamic lighting, issues serious enough that the US Air Force restricted certain refuelling profiles at night or in challenging light conditions. Boeing flew an overhauled RVS 2.0 for the first time only in November 2025, beginning a testing phase aimed at resolving the tanker's long-standing technical problems.

Technical reliability was one reason. The geopolitical context was another. Italy's decision to cancel the Boeing contract in 2024 coincided with a broader European reassessment of defence procurement dependency on American suppliers, accelerated by the Trump administration's unpredictable stance toward NATO allies.

...


https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/italy-ditches-boeing-and-buys-airbus-the-decision-says-more-than-it-seems.html

[Winehole23]

request for stay, denied in the Court of International Trade


On May 20, 2026, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) denied the Government’s request to pause the CIT’s May 7 ruling during the appeals process. For now, Section 122 duties remain unlawful, and U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) cannot collect Section 122 duties from plaintiffs Burlap & Barrel, Basic Fun, and the State of Washington.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/court-of-international-trade-denies-2224933/

[Winehole23]

Trump laid taxes on us all illegally, by decree, and we're still paying the price


But unfortunately for American workers and consumers, winding down this fiscal fiasco results in a lose-lose-lose situation:



First, most Americans will never be reimbursed for what were effectively temporary sales taxes they paid for various imports, nor will they receive the public benefit of having those sums spent on government programs or projects.
Second, because it is logistically easier to reimburse the American companies that directly paid the tariffs, some corporations may enjoy windfall refund profits — presuming, that is, those companies did not go bankrupt.
Finally, the surviving businesses and the employees who still work for them — hundreds of thousands of workers were laid off because of the tariffs — will for the foreseeable future continue to suffer because foreign countries, companies, and citizens quite rationally retaliated against Trump’s policies.

https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-tariff-refunds

[velik_m]

China industrial profits jump 24.7% in April, fastest gain in over two years despite headwinds

BEIJING — China’s industrial profits surged by 24.7% in April from a year earlier, according to official data released Wednesday, despite broader signs of slowing economic momentum.

The increase marked the fastest growth since November 2023, according to financial data provider Wind Information, and accelerated from a 15.8% rise in March.

For the first four months of the year, industrial profits rose 18.2%, up from 15.5% growth in the first quarter. Computing and electronics equipment manufacturing, the largest sector by profit amount, saw earnings more than double from a year ago, although the pace slowed slightly in April from March on a year-to-date basis.

...

China reported slower economic growth in April, with a 4.1% increase in industrial output and a 0.2% rise in retail sales from a year ago. Fixed asset investment fell for the first four months of the year as the real estate drag steepened.

Exports remained strong, climbing 14.1% in April from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms. Imports surged by 25.3%, data released earlier in May showed.

The producer price index in April jumped 2.8% from a year ago, the most since July 2022.



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/china-april-industrial-profits-growth.html

[Winehole23]

inflation would probably be near the Fed target right now but for Trump's illegal tariffs (plus war of choice)



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6m7rbdgaz5vyg4bnbefi7kh6/bafkreigtujlqokq3q6pvmzquqm7r627ttjb5llmg3iruszrzj fv2rqhi4e

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreichjs5lpq2lp6bmbhqonkfwskd3zpbkti7profs7vyvm hblex6nm4

[velik_m]

First Chinese-made EVs arrive in Canada under deal Carney struck with Xi


Chinese-made electric vehicles are beginning to arrive in Canada under a new arrangement that Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed to in January during a visit with China’s President Xi Jinping.
Article content

The cars will be the first to be imported by Canada under a deal that allows as many as 49,000 Chinese EVs in a 12-month period at a tariff rate of around 6 per cent. Prior to this year, Canada had a tariff of more than 100 per cent on those products, effectively shutting them out.

In recent days, hundreds of Tesla Inc. cars made at the U.S. automaker’s Shanghai factory have started to show up under the new low-tariff regime, according to a person familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
Article content

A vehicle carrier called Glovis Treasure with cargo including a small number of Chinese-made Lotus luxury brand cars has been moored outside the Port of Vancouver since Sunday. The ship departed Shanghai in early May, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg.
Article content

The Canada-China deal will be closely watched by U.S. automakers, which have historically held a dominating position in the Canadian market. Executives including General Motors Co. chief executive Mary Barra have questioned the Carney government’s decision to ease barriers to Chinese electric cars.

...



https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/electric-vehicles/first-chinese-made-evs-arrive-canada

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidy2oc3vepdz3bn4ksjjshw2zuwgp3lp5bgldebcookj 67er2erd4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibdbyczprtzz3rh4zvf2t5j4o6n6g4yo3gijpei5rwwd u7kceu4mu


has largely centered on two options: Either companies would pass on .. or ‘eat’ the tariffs .. Now we know that there was a third option: Pass on some of the costs and pay for the remainder by suppressing wages .https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-01/tariffs-two-biggest-losers-you-and-you-again

[Winehole23]

wasn't raising tariffs supposed to do this in the first place?



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiadk4fwxvirgfydantfozqgkd4sfuedhboicbnziaxrf vmvds7y6u

[Winehole23]

ever the skinflint, Trump tries to welsh on the refunds for his 100% illegally imposed tariffs


DOJ is pursuing two appeals - the first broadly challenges a judge's authority to order refunds for finalized Trump tariffs struck by SCOTUS if the importer (there are ~300,000+) didn't file a lawsuit. Second contests judge's order compelling CBP head to testifybuff.ly/f7GXB1m (https://buff.ly/f7GXB1m)

[Winehole23]

the thing about not impeaching presidents who break the law is that they will keep breaking it

Trump has a mania for raising taxes by decree


Last night, the Trump Administration revealed plans (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/06/03/trump-administration-announces-new-tariffs-over-use-forced-labor/) to use Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose massive new tariffs on imports from some 60 countries around the world, under the pretext that this is necessary to combat their importation of goods that use forced labor:



The Trump administration has taken a key step toward rebuilding a tariff wall around the U.S. economy, announcing new restrictions on goods from 60 trading partners that U.S. officials say lack sufficient prohibitions on the use of forced labor.


Under the plan, goods from nations that the U.S. says have not banned forced labor, including China, India, Britain and Japan, will face 12.5 percent tariffs. Goods from the European Union, Canada, Mexico and other nations that the U.S. says have failed to enforce bans will face 10 percent levies, the administration said in a late-night announcement Tuesday.


While he's relying on a different statute, the tariffs Trump plans to impose here seem very similar to the 10% Section 122 tariffs recently invalidated (https://reason.com/volokh/2026/05/07/us-court-of-international-trade-rules-against-trumps-section-122-tariffs/) by the US Court of International Trade, and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court (https://www.cato.org/commentary/how-supreme-court-spared-america) in February, in a case I helped bring. The tariff rates (10-12.5%) are similar and so are the various exemptions outlined by the administration.


In addition, I am extremely skeptical of the claim that all of these sixty countries - including numerous affluent liberal democracies - are actually more lax about importing goods produced by forced labor than the US is. And if forced labor were really the concern, there would be no reason to impose massive tariffs on virtually all imports from those nations, even though the vast majority of those goods have little or no connection to forced labor. It sure looks like the forced labor issue is just a pretext for large-scale protectionism of the same kind courts blocked earlier. This looks like yet another presidential power grab seeking to usurp Congress' authority over tariffs, granted by Article I of the Constitution.

https://reason.com/volokh/2026/06/03/trumps-dubious-new-section-301-tariffs/

[Winehole23]

correlation is not necessarily not causation

Trump mashed two buttons that made prices go up

global tariffs and war with Iran


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiegwxzbuksclaxljrvsjp4okpncutqjrz774bzcouptd hdq4nc4xi

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6grr22xolfmyb6vzbrpic2or/bafkreihcycfkh52vmoftbm4eyk3bjjx4bjxg2wxiax37k6zci ozs2wtbcu@jpeg


Trump on USMCA: I don't know if I'm going to renew it. The US doesn't need anything Mexico or Canada have, they must treat us better.

[CosmicCowboy]

Good tariff example. I use a specialty cupronickel tubing that is ony made in Germany. There is no US option. My last order was $39 thousand and change to the manufacturer. The tariff to clear US Customs was right at $20,000. That gets passed on directly to my customers who pass it on to their customers.

[Winehole23]

one year on

Trump's tariffs by presidential decree imposed massive costs on US importers with pass through inflation, failed to achieve primary policy objective

https://www.cato.org/blog/after-year-high-tariffs-us-goods-trade-deficit-has-barely-budged

[Winehole23]

Trump want to rip up his trade deal with Canada and Mexico

Could backfire


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bypjzsq5xtw26b5ywo6oqhpe/bafkreibwxrrkccajrps72vpndfgbri5dmv7nkdruzenbmmi2f kvlzuyncm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihxlxlgomkb4zswor3chu2y63n2ovk67dsd4c3npvj4b hsdcdcsci


The U.S. goods trade deficit widened sharply in May to $105.8 billion … a new post-Liberation Day high.

​- Schwab

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pu76nca4whbkwubc5kokvil6/bafkreih4kfmfjjxhfpaolgihuiqandqpt3r2kvul77j36656s nkio72soy


Another casualty of the data center buildout: US trade deficit. Imports of capital goods up almost 42% YoYhttps://bsky.app/profile/fullcarry.net/post/3mp6xvpu2zk2d

[Winehole23]

Trump would like to lay new taxes on American companies to punish Europe


Donald Trump has threatened to place a 100% import tariff on any European country that imposes a tax on digital services from US companies.

Writing on Truth Social on Friday, the US president said that “numerous European countries” had been discussing putting a digital services tax on American companies and that “some of these countries are close to actually doing this”.

“Please let this statement serve to represent that any country that imposes such a tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America,” Trump continued.

He added that the tariff would be immediately imposed and supersede any other prior trade deals that existed with the country.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/27/trump-threatens-tariff-eu-countries-impose-digital-tax

[Winehole23]

freight inflation related to tariffs and war

Trump continues to make prices go up




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiacq25gjqk2c6zhb25nr5rjj4ynjyyaq3u76maf57kdp pytqmo7mm


The cost of freight shipping has risen to its highest since the Red Sea crisis two years ago as businesses rush to stockpile inventory ahead of a fresh round of US tariffshttps://www.ft.com/content/8bf7cfa4-5412-41d3-b84e-e89f84265fe8?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[velik_m]

Trump’s tariffs aren’t saving jobs at Whirlpool’s Iowa refrigerator plant

AMANA, Iowa, June 29 (Reuters) - If any company stood to gain from President Donald Trump’s trade war, it was Whirlpool (WHR.N), opens new tab and the workers assembling its iconic appliances in Iowa.

But at its “Big Blue” refrigerator plant, so named because of its robin’s-egg-colored siding, the company has cut more than half its nearly 2,000-strong workforce in the last year, despite tariffs championed by Trump to support U.S. manufacturing.

...

CEO Marc Bitzer last year praised Trump’s trade actions, saying in an investor call that the Michigan-based company was a “net winner” from the policy.

But tariffs have not halted the job losses in Iowa or the decline in Whirlpool’s stock, now at its lowest since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Tariffs have raised Whirlpool’s costs for steel and imported components while demand tied to a weak housing market has softened. Meanwhile, Whirlpool has said tariffs have supported investment in other parts of its
U.S. operations. The company ​has increased sourcing from plants in Mexico and China and moved some specialty models to an updated plant in Ohio.

The changes underscore the still-evolving effects of Trump’s tariffs. While some companies say the measures support investment at home, others face higher input costs and shifting supply chains, with uneven consequences for ​jobs.
...



https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/trumps-tariffs-arent-saving-jobs-whirlpools-iowa-refrigerator-plant-2026-06-29/

[Winehole23]

One of Donald Trump’s favorite claims about the economy is that he has brought us an unprecedented boom in investment, and especially in factory construction. He constantly talks about the $18 trillion in new investment he has secured for the country, and how everyone is building factories here.


While anything can happen tomorrow, there is zero evidence of this investment boom to date, and factory construction is going the wrong way fast. As some of us (not major news outlets) have pointed out, there was a massive factory construction boom under Biden, with construction peaking in 2024 at more than twice its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter of 2024. This boom was directly connected to the major bills of the Biden presidency: the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act.


https://cepr.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/fredgraph12.png

Since then, factory construction has fallen rapidly. The May figure (https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf) was down almost 25% from the 2024 peak. All politicians exaggerate their accomplishments, but with Trump we have a president celebrating a boom that exists only in his head. In reality, factory construction under his watch has been a massive bust.
https://cepr.net/publications/trumps-factory-boom-keeps-going-in-reverse/

[Winehole23]

Trump’s Brokerage Accounts Made Big Trades Around ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs
Like most of president’s 21,000 trades in 2025, the activity was kept hidden until this weekhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/trumps-brokerage-accounts-made-big-trades-around-liberation-day-tariffs-06e92290

[Winehole23]

cold feet for a US trade deal in India


There is no political will in India at present to conclude the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US, as a deal that imposes a disproportionate tariff-reduction burden on the country, particularly on the sensitive farm sector, is seen as “untenable”, sources said.


The government is also concerned about the potential impact of steep tariff cuts on India’s balance of payments, as trade surplus with the US is already declining, and would rather wait for the outcome of the US Section 301 investigations than negotiate under the shadow of tariff threats.


“At present, US tariffs on Indian exports are almost back to the levels that prevailed when President Donald Trump took office, as the reciprocal tariffs have been suspended and the additional 10 per cent global tariff imposed in their place is also set to lapse on July 24. In such a situation, it would be politically untenable for the government to accept a trade deal that places a disproportionate tariff-reduction burden on India,” a source tracking the matter told businessline (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/). (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/)

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/no-political-will-to-seal-india-us-trade-pact-under-current-terms/article71161898.ece/amp/

[Blake]

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/trumps-brokerage-accounts-made-big-trades-around-liberation-day-tariffs-06e92290

Crooked Trump.

[velik_m]

Trump orders halt to US trade with Spain over NATO spending, Iran

ANKARA/MADRID, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered an immediate halt to all trade with NATO ally Spain, escalating tensions over #defence spending and the Iran war, despite European Union rules requiring trade negotiations to be conducted as a single bloc.
During a NATO summit in Ankara, which European leaders had hoped would cap rifts within the military alliance, Trump instead reignited the dispute with Spain, calling it a "terrible partner". He also irked another NATO ally Denmark by reiterating that his country should control Greenland. Denmark promised to defend every inch of ​its territory.

This marked the second time Trump has instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to halt commerce with Spain over its refusal to commit to NATO's new defence ​spending target of 5% of GDP. However, after his first such promise in March, trade between the two countries continued normally.
"Spain doesn't agree ⁠to anything, and you shouldn't carry them," Trump told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who later tried to soothe the tension by saying that Spain "made a huge step last ​year" raising its spending to 2%, though he added that "there are still issues we have to solve".
Trump has also repeatedly expressed frustration with Spain after Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, a ​Socialist who leads a minority leftist government, refused to let the U.S. use its airspace or bases for the Iran war.

...

Despite Trump's trade threats, major U.S. investors have expressed enthusiasm about Spain as an investment destination.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said in its mid-year report that Spain ​was its "preferred country for equity exposure" because of economic growth that has outpaced most developed countries.
Spain is the U.S.-based firm's main ​bet at a global level ⁠for the next six months, a spokesperson said. BlackRock holds €104 billion ($119 billion) worth of Spanish equities, debt, private markets and real assets, they added.

Still, net overall U.S. investment in Spain slumped by €1.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to Spain's economy ministry.
Spain is the world's largest olive oil exporter and also sells auto parts, steel, chemicals, and wine ⁠to the United ​States, although analysts consider it to be less vulnerable to Trump's threats of economic reprisal than other ​European economies.

...



https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-ordered-cutting-off-all-trade-with-spain-2026-07-08/

Trump still doesn't know how EU works.

[Winehole23]

Trump's tariff inflation is still passing through, the escalation of hostilities with Iran will compound it


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicaifixqvm3h6ugzex33cck3houc6lydy5h4m37gpcy3 le3uqrcyi


NY FED: “.. nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.”https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more-tariff-pass-through-is-in-the-pipeline/

[Winehole23]

people don't like chaos and unpredictability, nor do they like prices going up because Trump laid taxes on US import companies by proclamation

the USA has lost ~75,000 manufacturing jobs since "Liberation Day"


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihskhqetaoqled4pauzwezbjkny3tzalynwq7bkpmdbl 4j77bddyihttps://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-trumps-tariffs-really-work-c8647cd0

[Winehole23]

Trump's illegal tariffs are contributing to the budget deficit now that they have to be refunded


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidzuhbydsqwvkjj3onh42c65smrsqurpzyjpxwckdgie 2xegifmhy

[Winehole23]

this, all by itself should portend the proximate impeachment and removal of Trump

unfortunately, there are tens of thousands of official acts as bad or worse

[Blake]

this, all by itself should portend the proximate impeachment and removal of Trump

unfortunately, there are tens of thousands of official acts as bad or worse

Makes Clinton's impeachment look more ridiculous by the hour.

[Winehole23]

more pretextual tariffs

punishing Brazil by taxing US companies


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jfex7pbe5p7nejruly6rnnhn/bafkreicsszvs3zhvwxooztrioxdtd2sk3ic4gwftakjmchhah 563aq55lihttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/business/economy/trump-brazil-tariffs.html

[Winehole23]

Trump to tax US import firms even more to punish Canada for wildfire smoke



"We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air," the president wrote in a social media post on Friday.


"This is Willful Negligence, and becoming a yearly occurrence, costing the United States Billions of Dollars, which cost of this pollution must of necessity be added to the TARIFFS Canada is currently paying."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/us-complaints-trump-widlfire-smoke-9.7274466

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u6jwqspda4uhf2alsxo345lw/bafkreignz6eo3bu25grvpo2hnrb6h6vqvjeqtkh47uhjrmn6s 4ldndue2u

[Facts]

Makes Clinton's impeachment look more ridiculous by the hour.

Ridiculous isn't the word that comes to my mind.

Fucking quaint comes a lot closer.

[Facts]

Trump want to rip up his trade deal with Canada and Mexico

Could backfire

It has backfired.

Canada has collectively decided that the US has lost its goddamned mind and are strategically starting to divest itself from its ties to the US. It is looking to move toward the EU and export its products there and raw materials to Asia. That process is, it seems to me based on sentiments of Canucks I see online, that process is irreversible.

We have seen job losses related to tourism already, and if you think the detention stories by ICE play badly over here, for Europeans deciding where to go on vacation, it is making us look like a banana republic. Not as far from the truth as I would like.

[Facts]

Good tariff example. I use a specialty cupronickel tubing that is ony made in Germany. There is no US option. My last order was $39 thousand and change to the manufacturer. The tariff to clear US Customs was right at $20,000. That gets passed on directly to my customers who pass it on to their customers.

Heard a really good point on tariffs the other day.

There have literally been hundreds of changes, looking likely to top 1,000+ by the end of the year, it becomes close to impossible to determine compliance for businesses of whatever tariff is maybe in place. The only person who makes that determination is the low level bureaucrat reviewing the paperwork.

The best way to ensure your imported goods don't get held up is to develop a close working relationship with that persons checking account. It is very corrosive to the rule of law. it was a problem before, but now... its a feature.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:j2kmiyhld5btzozgzwy3lc2m/bafkreiawbl3qrxbpibrudw2uxvtu3kikpto2lstmhaplitnwc mhirpgmve


never-previously-used section of the smoot-hawley tariff act. allows the President to impose up to 50% duties on imports from countries that, in his view discriminate against American commerce.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:yge3sr4i2ffsta2unrjbriy6/bafkreidphsz5ob5gmxz2bm4rnzgf43mbys5eoibp6acyd43ze zwyywq66ewww.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/... (https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-canada/)

[Winehole23]

RIP Detroit

[ChumpDumper]

Never going to make the 30 days tbh.

[Winehole23]

tariffs on generic drugs 100% starting in 2028, going to 200% in 2029

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/21/trump-says-he-will-impose-tariffs-on-generic-drugs-starting-in-august-2028-01007137

[Winehole23]

“This is done in order to RESHORE Generic Pharmaceutical Production into America, with a penalty to those Companies that decide not to build Plant and Equipment within the stated period of time given to them.”

A White House official said in an email that the administration intends to use Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which is used to address national security concerns stemming from a reliance on imports, to impose the levies.

[Blake]

Ridiculous isn't the word that comes to my mind.

Fucking quaint comes a lot closer.

Honestly, it's beyond any words I can come up with

[Blake]

Never going to make the 30 days tbh.

Canadian taco

[Winehole23]

Donald Trump, human rights champion, imposes a new round of global tariffs on US importers

Taxing US companies to punish the rest of the world


President Donald Trump is going ahead with new double-digit tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners just as the clock runs out Friday on stopgap levies he imposed after a stinging defeat at the Supreme Court.[

The United States will slap taxes of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries accounting for 99% of U.S. imports, charging that they have inadequately enforced bans on goods produced by forced labor.

"The United States has had a forced labor import ban for nearly a century, and rigorously enforces it; it's well past time for our trading partners to do the same," said U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. "Today's action will begin to correct what is both a human rights abuse and distortive trade practice to improve the welfare of workers everywhere.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-imposes-double-digit-tariffs-on-dozens-of-countries-as-stopgap-10-levies-expire-friday

[Winehole23]

isn't punishing forced labor woke or something?

[Winehole23]

President Trump says he’ll put tariffs on Mexico “because of the lettuce” and on Canada “because of the smoke.”

[Winehole23]

primary policy objective, not achieved


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibchmyehj2i5ndiwv2dty7flrmlbdcy2yu5bhqct4xgp otnjstzo4

[velik_m]

U.S. economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3%

...
Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services, increased just 1.5% for the April-through June period, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis numbers adjusted for seasonality and inflation.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a growth rate of 1.8%, following the 2.1% increase in the first quarter.

A separate report showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s primary forecasting gauge, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.7%. The readings were in line with forecasts.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE posted a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual level of 3.3%, against respective forecasts for 0.2% and 3.3%.
...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/us-economy-slowed-to-1point5percent-growth-rate-in-q2-june-core-inflation-at-3point3percent.html

[Winehole23]

Trump's mercurial approach to tariffs creates uncertainty, and that uncertainty makes it harder for businesses to plan for the future


“.. The costs of tariffs are also becoming clearer. Uncertainty is weighing on investment: half of business leaders surveyed by KPMG .. report low confidence in carrying out their investment plans."https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/07/22/the-tariffs-that-just-wont-die

[Winehole23]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/us-economy-slowed-to-1point5percent-growth-rate-in-q2-june-core-inflation-at-3point3percent.htmlwhat's it called when economic growth goes down and prices go up at the same time?

[Winehole23]

The White House plan to attract manufacturing businesses with a volatile regulatory environment, new arbitrary taxes (subject to change on a whim), and sending secret police to harass foreign workers has not led to more factory construction in the US.

Why didn’t that work? I was told it would work.