***** Official 2018 Election Night Thread *****

[baseline bum]

https://media1.tenor.com/images/dcb063ebed9a75313498b678e9b42a75/tenor.gif?itemid=5454334

https://i.giphy.com/media/l0MYMizgnsTpoMuoo/giphy.webp

[SnakeBoy]

PA wins are important for the Dems going into 2020... would be interesting also to look at how the Rust belt voted...

I don't think this election transfers to a Presidential race. Just like 2010 didn't mean shit against Obama. Dems need to find a decent candidate. If it's Kamala, as I predict, they fucked.

[DMC]

wish the caravan would invade tonight, tbh... just to add to the drama...

With automatic weapons

[baseline bum]

I don't think this election transfers to a Presidential race. Just like 2010 didn't mean shit against Obama. Dems need to find a decent candidate. If it's Kamala, as I predict, they fucked.

Less fucked than if they pick Booker.

[ducks]

I am glad I did not live in Texas not sure I could vote for Cruz

[spurraider21]

PA wins are important for the Dems going into 2020... would be interesting also to look at how the Rust belt voted...
michigan and illinois both have their governorships flipped blue

[DMC]

CNN's Van Jones: "This is heartbreaking"

Brownlash

[SnakeBoy]

1060008368180318210

[spurraider21]

With automatic weapons
AK-15's and AR-47's with extended clips

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER10:21 PM
Colin Allred just beat Pete Sessions in the Texas 32nd. BIG pickup for Democrats — and one you can maybe give a lot of credit to Beto O’Rourke for.

[SnakeBoy]

Less fucked than if they pick Booker.

True

[spurraider21]

1060008368180318210
good to see you follow high thinkers

[DMC]

Includes almost all of OKC. Does NOT include the Norman college town area. But, lots of minorities have moved into OKC over the past decade.

Paul George tbh

[baseline bum]

1060008368180318210

:lol you're a bastard

[DMC]

AK-15's and AR-47's with extended clips

And flash suppressors with bayonet lugs. That would pretty much be it for us.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Less fucked than if they pick Booker.

No, Booker would be better but not by much.


Dems need to nominate Bernie, Biden or maybe Beto to win. Any female candidate would lose. And the mainstream old candidates aren't much better.


Hillary... would be laughable.

[Splits]

NATE SILVER10:21 PM
Colin Allred just beat Pete Sessions in the Texas 32nd. BIG pickup for Democrats — and one you can maybe give a lot of credit to Beto O’Rourke for.

Now let's see Hurd go down. Played pee wee football with that faggot

[baseline bum]

MEREDITH CONROY10:22 PM
That’s right, Nathaniel. In the Texas 23rd, a majority Hispanic district, Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is challenging incumbent, Rep. Will Hurd. Ortiz Jones, an openly gay, Air Force veteran, won a Democratic primary run-off race with 67 percent of the vote, and could pull off an upset — it’s a race I am watching closely.

Propublica shows that both candidates raised a lot of money — $5.4 million for Ortiz Jones, and $4.7 million for Will Hurd. The Deluxe version of our forecast gives Jones just a 1 in 5 chance at winning her race. Right now, with 24 percent of the votes counted, they are neck and neck tied at 49 percent each.

[DMC]

No, Booker would be better but not by much.


Dems need to nominate Bernie, Biden or maybe Beto to win. Any female candidate would lose. And the mainstream old candidates aren't much better.


Hillary... would be laughable.

They'd be fucked with Biden. Beto might have some momentum.

[Millennial_Messiah]

NATE SILVER10:21 PM
Colin Allred just beat Pete Sessions in the Texas 32nd. BIG pickup for Democrats — and one you can maybe give a lot of credit to Beto O’Rourke for.

South Dallas metro area. Enormous Hispanic population and most of the blacks in DFW area as well.

[Robz4000]

Cruz gonna get to keep det summer home.

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH10:26 PM
Pretty striking: All the party flips in the House so far have been by Democrats. All the party flips in the Senate have been by Republicans.

[SnakeBoy]

No, Booker would be better but not by much.


Dems need to nominate Bernie, Biden or maybe Beto to win. Any female candidate would lose. And the mainstream old candidates aren't much better.


Hillary... would be laughable.

Honestly, Beto is the best choice I see at the moment. I can't stand him but he's a good politician. And the last two POTUS have tossed the experience thing right out the window.

[baseline bum]

DAN HOPKINS10:26 PM
In Montana, it’s early, but Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is on pace with his 2012 margin in Yellowstone County (Billings), and he is outperforming his 2012 margin in Lewis and Clark County, home to Helena.

[Millennial_Messiah]

MEREDITH CONROY10:22 PM
That’s right, Nathaniel. In the Texas 23rd, a majority Hispanic district, Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is challenging incumbent, Rep. Will Hurd. Ortiz Jones, an openly gay, Air Force veteran, won a Democratic primary run-off race with 67 percent of the vote, and could pull off an upset — it’s a race I am watching closely.

Propublica shows that both candidates raised a lot of money — $5.4 million for Ortiz Jones, and $4.7 million for Will Hurd. The Deluxe version of our forecast gives Jones just a 1 in 5 chance at winning her race. Right now, with 24 percent of the votes counted, they are neck and neck tied at 49 percent each.
No chance IMO. Hurd was winning by double digits in exit polls.

[Millennial_Messiah]

DAN HOPKINS10:26 PM
In Montana, it’s early, but Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is on pace with his 2012 margin in Yellowstone County (Billings), and he is outperforming his 2012 margin in Lewis and Clark County, home to Helena.
This prevents any GOP hope of a 60-40 supermajority in 2020 if Trump wins.


Montana is a red state, but it's a Libertarian state, most people there aren't god-fearing and are younger... and pro legalization, gay marriage, abortion, pro gun rights etc.

[DMC]

http://www.netanimations.net/beach_animated.gif

[baseline bum]

Now let's see Hurd go down. Played pee wee football with that faggot

Pretty doubtful as El Paso is 100% in. Bexar is only 23% counted and Hurd has a slight lead in it.

[SnakeBoy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=bQ8JQGpsi4A

[djohn2oo8]

http://www.netanimations.net/beach_animated.gif
House won dummy.

[ElNono]

Rust belt largely leaned left tonight. I don't think it will affect 2020 to the left much if at all in the general. Ohio, Michigan etc are trending right demographically. But good night there for Dems to prevent some super-majority in the GOP Senate.

Rust belt is one of the main reasons Trump won, and has nothing to do with demographics, but manufacturing jobs... this is why it's interesting tonight, now that it's clear those jobs ain't coming back...

[Chris]

Called that shit

[DMC]

House won dummy.
Big blue wave .. see it? Right there!

[ElNono]

I don't think this election transfers to a Presidential race. Just like 2010 didn't mean shit against Obama. Dems need to find a decent candidate. If it's Kamala, as I predict, they fucked.

I think some regions do give you a pulse... but if the Dems stroll Shillary out again, foggedabouit...

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER10:32 PM
New York closes polls late (which is a good thing!!!) and is slow to count its vote, but a lot of interesting races there will determine how many pickups Democrats will have in the House. Chris Collins is down early in New York 27, for example.

[baseline bum]

I think some regions do give you a pulse... but if the Dems stroll Shillary out again, foggedabouit...

Or Black Shillary in Booker

[Millennial_Messiah]

Rust belt is one of the main reasons Trump won, and has nothing to do with demographics, but manufacturing jobs... this is why it's interesting tonight, now that it's clear those jobs ain't coming back...
I spent time in Ohio this year. Columbus, OH jobs have increased by 266% since Trump won, but it has next to nothing to do with manufacturing. Most of the job growth is in finance and technology, especially the latter. I.T. and related office jobs have spiked in the Rust Belt -- from Cincinnati to Columbus to Madison to Indy to Grand Rapids to even Pittsburgh, tremendously since Trump won.

Companies are seeing cheaper land and rent and lower salary expectations (as opposed to say, California or the Northeast) as great opportunity to build their corporate offices there and bring in a lot of new highly educated business office workers.

Only large cities to not have significant job growth in the Rust Belt since Trump won... Cleveland and Detroit. Which are shitholes forever, I think. Companies don't want to put their office HQs there, and for good reason.

[AaronY]

I am glad I did not live in Texas not sure I could vote for Cruz
Huh?

[AaronY]

Called that shit
Which shit?

[Nathan89]

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/occupations-of-unauthorized-immigrant-workers/

Here's some jobs for unemployed Americans. They are just being done by Dem illegal immigrants.

[Chinook]

Huh?

Probably thinks we still have a literacy test here.

[ElNono]

I spent time in Ohio this year. Columbus, OH jobs have increased by 266% since Trump won, but it has next to nothing to do with manufacturing. Most of the job growth is in finance and technology, especially the latter. I.T. and related office jobs have spiked in the Rust Belt -- from Cincinnati to Columbus to Madison to Indy to Grand Rapids to even Pittsburgh, tremendously since Trump won.

Only large cities to not have significant job growth in the Rust Belt since Trump won... Cleveland and Detroit. Which are shitholes forever, I think. Companies don't want to put their office HQs there, and for good reason.

That's the point. Large cities mostly end up voting Dem in the long run... it's the rural areas that are missing the manufacturing jobs, and the gig is up, they're not coming back.

[ElNono]

Or Black Shillary in Booker

Booker would be fine, same as Kamala or Beto... they're running against Trump, you don't really need a serious candidate...

[AaronY]

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/occupations-of-unauthorized-immigrant-workers/

Here's some jobs for unemployed Americans. They are just being done by Dem illegal immigrants.
Nathan staying on brand per/par

https://pbs-h2.twimg.com/media/C8I_A1wUAAEHXSr.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/11/03/occupations-of-unauthorized-immigrant-workers/

Here's some jobs for unemployed Americans. They are just being done by Dem illegal immigrants.

Correct. The Trump utopia of white Americans foregoing liberal college and going back to the industrial jobs of the 1960s and earlier, will never come to pass, but that's okay.


The growth of office jobs that require only a bachelor's degree since Trump won, is astounding. The Rust Belt in particular has huge office job growth because big name companies want to save money on rent/property costs and salaries and put their HQs in new and interesting places with talented local workers who might not want to move OOS after graduating from, say, a Big 10 school... or, maybe bring in some kids from other states as well?!?

[Nathan89]

Nathan staying on brand per/par

https://pbs-h2.twimg.com/media/C8I_A1wUAAEHXSr.jpg

You posting that retarded image to deflect reality per par

[ducks]

Huh?

Cruz is a losser

[AaronY]

You posting that retarded image to deflect reality per par
How is this not realistic?

https://pbs-h2.twimg.com/media/C8I_A1wUAAEHXSr.jpg

[Millennial_Messiah]

Booker would be fine, same as Kamala or Beto... they're running against Trump, you don't really need a serious candidate...

Booker would lose by a little.. Kamala by a lot... Hillary by a landslide... Beto would have a chance if he played his cards right.


Trump is definitely the favorite in 2020 due to economics and job growth. People vote with their wallets #1. Logos always wins over pathos for the most part. Dems will have to prove they can do better on the economy than Trump.

As far as the idiotic tweets and bile from his mouth goes, he'd have to be insanely bad... beyond imagination... to do worse than 2016 in that regard. And, he won in 2016.

[baseline bum]

Evers up 4100 votes on Walker in Wisconsin but seems like red districts have more votes outstanding

[spurraider21]

republicans are holding the ohio governorship and looks like florida as well... those are still the 2 most determinative states in presidential races. florida was a complete nailbiter tho

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's the point. Large cities mostly end up voting Dem in the long run... it's the rural areas that are missing the manufacturing jobs, and the gig is up, they're not coming back.
Voters vote with their wallets... Ohio is demographically GOP but were enamored with Obama for some reason. Trump did better than Bush did both times, though. Rural will still be largely GOP in 2020, whereas the suburban whites who got new office jobs will be majority GOP. The Hillary vote will still be there for the Democratic candidate, but it won't be enough.

[Millennial_Messiah]

republicans are holding the ohio governorship and looks like florida as well... those are still the 2 most determinative states in presidential races. florida was a complete nailbiter tho

Florida will be a nailbiter in the Year 2100.

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER10:52 PM
According to The Upshot, Democrats are likely to win the popular vote for the House by somewhere in the range of 6 to 10 points — which is right where polls had the generic ballot.

[baseline bum]

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON10:49 PM
Earlier this year, Rick Scott ran an ad, titled “Quien Es Bill Nelson,” suggesting that Nelson had failed to engage with the Hispanic community in Florida. And the exit polls in Florida seem to support that view. Nelson is now +11 among Hispanics, which trails Hillary Clinton’s margin with Latino voters in the state from 2016.

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY10:47 PM
Florida is looking good for Republicans. The races for Senate and governor are very close, but the GOP leads in both. Republican Gov. Rick Scott leads Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by 0.8 points, and Republican Ron DeSantis leads Democrat Andrew Gillum by 1.0 points. Both of those leads are outside the 0.5-point margin required for an automatic recount.

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH10:54 PM
Democrats are doing VERY well in Iowa. In the 1st District, Abby Finkenauer is leading GOP Rep. Rod Blum 58 percent to 40 percent. In the 3rd District, Cindy Axne is leading Rep. David Young 55 percent to 42 percent. And … wait for it … in the 4th District, J.D. Scholten is leading Rep. Steve King 51 percent to 47 percent.

[spurraider21]

steve king might actually lose in iowa. i know cruz is a turd but king might be the most detestable person in congress tbh

[spurraider21]

NATE SILVER (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/) 10:55 PM
ABC PROJECTS THAT DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THE HOUSE

[baseline bum]

steve king might actually lose in iowa. i know cruz is a turd but king might be the most detestable person in congress tbh

Hopefully Rohrabacher goes down too

[baseline bum]

Gillum conceding

[baseline bum]

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/506/772/97a.gif

[Millennial_Messiah]

NATHANIEL RAKICH10:54 PM
Democrats are doing VERY well in Iowa. In the 1st District, Abby Finkenauer is leading GOP Rep. Rod Blum 58 percent to 40 percent. In the 3rd District, Cindy Axne is leading Rep. David Young 55 percent to 42 percent. And … wait for it … in the 4th District, J.D. Scholten is leading Rep. Steve King 51 percent to 47 percent.

Another state that won't go for the Dem. presidential candidate in 2020, so these new Democrats are likely one-termers unless something drastic happens.

[Chinook]

Gillum conceding

First time I've actually heard him speak. His accent is weird, like he's trying really hard not let a Southern/AAVE accent show through.

[DMX7]

The house and senate are going almost exactly the way I expected them to but the governor races are pretty disappointing. The Florida loss is painful even though it was within like 1%.

[Th'Pusher]

Voters vote with their wallets...

No they don’t. You have a bunch of farmers in the midwest that are getting fucked by Donald’s tariffs but contintinue to support them. Voters, republican voters in particular, vote with their emotions, fear being the most prominent.

[spurraider21]

the world will be a better place if king is ousted

[SnakeBoy]

NATE SILVER (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/) 10:55 PM
ABC PROJECTS THAT DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THE HOUSE


:lol

This is why Fox News has the most watched election coverage.

[spurraider21]

:lol

This is why Fox News has the most watched election coverage.
yep. fox news, king of the MSM

[ElNono]

Booker would lose by a little.. Kamala by a lot... Hillary by a landslide... Beto would have a chance if he played his cards right.

Trump is definitely the favorite in 2020 due to economics and job growth. People vote with their wallets #1. Logos always wins over pathos for the most part. Dems will have to prove they can do better on the economy than Trump.

As far as the idiotic tweets and bile from his mouth goes, he'd have to be insanely bad... beyond imagination... to do worse than 2016 in that regard. And, he won in 2016.

Dems did way better with the economy than the previous two GOP presidents. If anything, Trump has managed (so far), not to screw it up. He's been a pretty ineffectual president, and is a weak candidate, IMO, the whole unhinged lying will come home to roost at some point.

His best chance is to declare a war before the election, get the country to line up behind him under the national pride mantra...

That said, never underestimate the Dems putting an even more terrible candidate out there... (ahem, Joe Biden).

[Millennial_Messiah]

No they don’t. You have a bunch of farmers in the midwest that are getting fucked by Donald’s tariffs but contintinue to support them. Voters, republican voters in particular, vote with their emotions, fear being the most prominent.

Democrats are much more likely to vote with emotions.. omg they're not human! :cry


The tariffs suck, but most of the farm produce is not exported out of the US... it's mostly taken state to state.

[midnightpulp]

My primary concern this election is what we're going to do about the impending caravan?

- Do I care that they're "brown people?" No.

- Am I concerned that blood thirsty criminals are using the caravan as cover in order to enter this country and thus rape and pillage white neighborhoods? No.

- Do I care if they "steal" jobs (er jerbs) from Cletus? No.

- Do I care about them having anchor babies? No.

The most pressing issue with this caravan is that means there will be 14 thousand more soccer fans in the country.

[ElNono]

Voters vote with their wallets... Ohio is demographically GOP but were enamored with Obama for some reason. Trump did better than Bush did both times, though. Rural will still be largely GOP in 2020, whereas the suburban whites who got new office jobs will be majority GOP. The Hillary vote will still be there for the Democratic candidate, but it won't be enough.

Even Bill Clinton won the rust belt.. it's not an Obama thing. Shillary was a terrible candidate that kept pushing the globalist/outsourcing agenda, whereas Trump was bullshitting his way through bringing manufacturing jobs back. Dennison played the right cards there (credit to him), but that gig is up, those jobs ain't coming back. We'll see what the reaction to that is. If today is any indication (and GOP voters generally mobilize more for the mid terms), it's not a good look.

[Robz4000]

My primary concern this election is what we're going to do about the impending caravan?

- Do I care that they're "brown people?" No.

- Am I concerned that blood thirsty criminals are using the caravan as cover in order to enter this country and thus rape and pillage white neighborhoods? No.

- Do I care if they "steal" jobs (er jerbs) from Cletus? No.

- Do I care about them having anchor babies? No.

The most pressing issue with this caravan is that means there will be 14 thousand more soccer fans in the country.

It's time to ban divegrass imo. It's a hard line but it needs to be done.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Dems did way better with the economy than the previous two GOP presidents. If anything, Trump has managed (so far), not to screw it up. He's been a pretty ineffectual president, and is a weak candidate, IMO, the whole unhinged lying will come home to roost at some point.

His best chance is to declare a war before the election, get the country to line up behind him under the national pride mantra...

That said, never underestimate the Dems putting an even more terrible candidate out there... (ahem, Joe Biden).
Biden would be better than Harris or Warren or any other radical left female... but this is a silly post. Trump is not ineffectual and his policies and deregulation have skyrocketed the economy... maybe a bubble? But it won't pop until at least halfway through Trump's second term, like the late Bush era bubble, which of course will lead to a Democratic White House victory in 2024.

[boutons_deux]

TX sends two Latinas to Congress

also going are two Native American ladies, or as you racists call them, squaws.

[baseline bum]

DAN HOPKINS11:08 PM
It’s razor-tight in New Jersey’s 3rd District, where incumbent Republican Tom MacArthur faced off against Obama national security official Andy Kim. With 99 percent reporting in this bow-tie of a district (seriously, look at a map), Kim leads by 395 votes.

[midnightpulp]

It's time to ban divegrass imo. It's a hard line but it needs to be done.

Yep, The most important issue this great nation faces at the moment.

[Th'Pusher]

Democrats are much more likely to vote with emotions.. omg they're not human! :cry


The tariffs suck, but most of the farm produce is not exported out of the US... it's mostly taken state to state.

Read What’s the Matter with Kansas and get back to me.

[ElNono]

My primary concern this election is what we're going to do about the impending caravan?

- Do I care that they're "brown people?" No.

- Am I concerned that blood thirsty criminals are using the caravan as cover in order to enter this country and thus rape and pillage white neighborhoods? No.

- Do I care if they "steal" jobs (er jerbs) from Cletus? No.

- Do I care about them having anchor babies? No.

The most pressing issue with this caravan is that means there will be 14 thousand more soccer fans in the country.

Move to Venezuela, tbh, you can watch all the fatball you want..

[baseline bum]

Wow Democrats won Oklahoma 5

[Millennial_Messiah]

Even Bill Clinton won the rust belt.. it's not an Obama thing. Shillary was a terrible candidate that kept pushing the globalist/outsourcing agenda, whereas Trump was bullshitting his way through bringing manufacturing jobs back. Dennison played the right cards there (credit to him), but that gig is up, those jobs ain't coming back. We'll see what the reaction to that is. If today is any indication (and GOP voters generally mobilize more for the mid terms), it's not a good look.

Gubernatorial map tonight for the GOP candidate in Ohio pretty much matched Trump's in 2016. Governor races in midterms are, historically, the biggest harbinger race for the next election than anything else. Of course a couple like Kansas or NH won't... but in swing states, yes.


Democrats have won the rust belt since Reagan won them. But the demographics are shifting strongly right up there... those places are almost all white outside of the center of the biggest cities and they feel left behind by the progressive agenda. When I spent time in Cincinatti I didn't see a single Hispanic person, even the janitors were white and Asian. Sure enough, as per Wikipedia, Hispanic population in Ohio is under 3%. Don't think those states, particularly Ohio, will go back blue for a long time.

[AaronY]

Dems did way better with the economy than the previous two GOP presidents. If anything, Trump has managed (so far), not to screw it up. He's been a pretty ineffectual president, and is a weak candidate, IMO, the whole unhinged lying will come home to roost at some point.

His best chance is to declare a war before the election, get the country to line up behind him under the national pride mantra...

That said, never underestimate the Dems putting an even more terrible candidate out there... (ahem, Joe Biden).
Kinda confused about whats wrong with Biden other than age tbh

Are you one of these $15 minimum wage, free healthcare, free college, UBI people nono?

[DMC]

Booker would be fine, same as Kamala or Beto... they're running against Trump, you don't really need a serious candidate...

They made that mistake last time. If he touts his successes, and they could be many, let me tell you...no one in history has made the gains he's made... the fake media will say "no he did nothing" but you know it's not true...

[DMC]

Kinda confused about whats wrong with Biden other than age tbh

Are you one of these $15 minimum wage, free healthcare, free college, UBI people nono?

He's part of the old guard.

[Millennial_Messiah]

TX sends two Latinas to Congress

also going are two Native American ladies, or as you racists call them, squaws.
The moderate Islamic chick that won the Dearborn, MI area is hot.

[hater]

pretty good nite for ma demonrats pretty good for ma repugnants :tu

just how I wanted it :tu

Pence will NOT be president and Trump will not take over entire country :tu

good nite folk

[baseline bum]

Kinda confused about whats wrong with Biden other than age tbh

Are you one of these $15 minimum wage, free healthcare, free college, UBI people nono?

Fuck Biden for not running in 2016. Unforgivable how he stepped aside for the pos Clinton.

[ducks]

Lol at former president campaigning and the ones he did they fucking got their asses handed to them

[Millennial_Messiah]

pretty good nite for ma demonrats pretty good for ma repugnants :tu

just how I wanted it :tu

good nite folk
Don't think there will be a "blue wave" per se, though. Dems will win by 5-10 seats in the House as I predicted.

[hater]

Don't think there will be a "blue wave" per se, though. Dems will win by 5-10 seats in the House as I predicted.

majority is majority. 5 10 who gives a shit. :tu

[hater]

Lol at former president campaigning and the ones he did they fucking got their asses handed to them

don't forget Shitlery. she was opening her mouth and helping trump last few weeks.

It's excellent Democrats won something despite shitlery tbh :lol

it's like Spurs winning despite 8 Tos by Manure

[ElNono]

Biden would be better than Harris or Warren or any other radical left female... but this is a silly post. Trump is not ineffectual and his policies and deregulation have skyrocketed the economy... maybe a bubble? But it won't pop until at least halfway through Trump's second term, like the late Bush era bubble, which of course will lead to a Democratic White House victory in 2024.

uh? what 'policies and deregulation'? He received a booming economy, the unpaid-for tax cuts were all Mitch, the tariffs didn't move the needle (and if they do, it'll likely be for the worse), "job-killer" obamacare still there, we're still waiting to find out what the whole NK/Russia summit BS is about, manufacturing continues to flee the country, nafta is still around...

It's not that I don't want to give him credit, is that his biggest accomplishments (ie: conservative SCOTUS) have nothing to do with policy...

[Millennial_Messiah]

majority is majority. 5 10 who gives a shit. :tu

As that podcaster said... Dem majority (and a small one at that) might benefit Trump in the long run. He'll have something to run on if there's a lot of gridlock in legislature in the next couple years.

[djohn2oo8]

Fuck Biden for not running in 2016. Unforgivable how he stepped aside for the pos Clinton.
He did lose his son at the time. Or else he would have run.

[hater]

As that podcaster said... Dem majority (and a small one at that) might benefit Trump in the long run. He'll have something to run on if there's a lot of gridlock in legislature in the next couple years.

sure but think about it

Democraps lose the House tonight and it would be GAME OVER

but it wasn't :tu

there is hope

[ElNono]

Kinda confused about whats wrong with Biden other than age tbh

Are you one of these $15 minimum wage, free healthcare, free college, UBI people nono?

Nah, age is one problem, presentation is the other problem. If there's somebody that can look even more than a fool than Trump, that's Biden. Plus, you need fresh faces... look at Obama, even Trump... people with short political careers, where they don't have a ton of skeleton in their closets...

I don't have a beef with Joe personally, he's just not a great candidate at this point in his career and with the current climate.

[midnightpulp]

uh? what 'policies and deregulation'? He received a booming economy, the unpaid-for tax cuts were all Mitch, the tariffs didn't move the needle (and if they do, it'll likely be for the worse), "job-killer" obamacare still there, we're still waiting to find out what the whole NK/Russia summit BS is about, manufacturing continues to flee the country, nafta is still around...

It's not that I don't want to give him credit, is that his biggest accomplishments (ie: conservative SCOTUS) have nothing to do with policy...

Indeed. Presidents don't have as large an impact over the economy as perceived.
https://www.marketplace.org/2012/03/07/economy/freakonomics-radio/does-president-actually-influence-economy

[Spurtacular]

Very sad night for Reck.

https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/11/06/hallquist-falls-short-in-vt-governors-race/

[Millennial_Messiah]

uh? what 'policies and deregulation'? He received a booming economy, the unpaid-for tax cuts were all Mitch, the tariffs didn't move the needle (and if they do, it'll likely be for the worse), "job-killer" obamacare still there, we're still waiting to find out what the whole NK/Russia summit BS is about, manufacturing continues to flee the country, nafta is still around...

It's not that I don't want to give him credit, is that his biggest accomplishments (ie: conservative SCOTUS) have nothing to do with policy...

Obamacare was never a job killer, it just jacked up the premiums beyond repair... don't think getting rid of the individual mandate will help that part much, but it is a good thing for younger people like me who have the right to choose instead of paying $300+ a month or quitting my job and getting a shitty ACA marketplace plan like Oscar or Ambetter that is cheap but has shitty-ass doctors and small-ass networks. Second opinions are all OOP, etc.

The NK exchange was a win for Trump
Tariffs are a slight net loss for Trump
Repealing NAFTA would have raised prices and such, would have been bad for Trump
Tax cuts might not have been paid for, but they will... cutting Medicaid doesn't hurt the GOP, they can't cut SS or MediCARE that would be suicide.

[FrostKing]

#4 Duke - 66
#2 UK - 45

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Mike_Krzyzewski_in_2011_%28cropped%29.jpg/220px-Mike_Krzyzewski_in_2011_%28cropped%29.jpg

[ElNono]

They made that mistake last time. If he touts his successes, and they could be many, let me tell you...no one in history has made the gains he's made... the fake media will say "no he did nothing" but you know it's not true...

He barely beat a terrible candidate. Don't come at me now pretending he's a chess master... we had a turd pie and a shit sandwich last election... you would think you can only go up from Shilarry, but we'll see what the Dems pick...

[hater]

All socialist candidates did well

Of course demoshits will ignore this and double down on their neocons

That will be their final undoing

[dbestpro]

The House wants to spend money. Needs the Senate to approve. The House wants to impeach. Needs the Senate to approve a trial. The Senate wants to appoint judges. They just do it.

The Senate clearly is the power brokers of congress. The House will make lots of noise, but nothing will really change for the next 2 years.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He did lose his son at the time. Or else he would have run.

That sympathy vote alone would have added 3 million swing votes for that alone, which adds to the stupidity of him not running.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The House wants to spend money. Needs the Senate to approve. The House wants to impeach. Needs the Senate to approve a trial. The Senate wants to appoint judges. They just do it.

The Senate clearly is the power brokers of congress. The House will make lots of noise, but nothing will really change for the next 2 years.
With all the moderate Dems that won house seats tonight, they might not always get enough votes to pass shit as well

[ElNono]

Gubernatorial map tonight for the GOP candidate in Ohio pretty much matched Trump's in 2016. Governor races in midterms are, historically, the biggest harbinger race for the next election than anything else. Of course a couple like Kansas or NH won't... but in swing states, yes.

Democrats have won the rust belt since Reagan won them. But the demographics are shifting strongly right up there... those places are almost all white outside of the center of the biggest cities and they feel left behind by the progressive agenda. When I spent time in Cincinatti I didn't see a single Hispanic person, even the janitors were white and Asian. Sure enough, as per Wikipedia, Hispanic population in Ohio is under 3%. Don't think those states, particularly Ohio, will go back blue for a long time.

What makes you think hispanics only vote democrat? They weren't hispanics there when Obama or Bill won either. The point is incumbency eventually has a price.

[Millennial_Messiah]

#4 Duke - 66
#2 UK - 45

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Mike_Krzyzewski_in_2011_%28cropped%29.jpg/220px-Mike_Krzyzewski_in_2011_%28cropped%29.jpg

what sport? shitty basketb:lolll?

[Chinook]

With all the moderate Dems that won house seats tonight, they might not always get enough votes to pass shit as well

Theoretically, that won't be an issue, because they'll have an incoming Democratic president to boost their down-ballot races. They're only weak if Trump is reelected, which is a much bigger issue than what we're talking about right now.

[DMC]

He barely beat a terrible candidate. Don't come at me now pretending he's a chess master... we had a turd pie and a shit sandwich last election... you would think you can only go up from Shilarry, but we'll see what the Dems pick...

YOU are fake news... He had the greatest first term ever... EVER... Syria... no problem. ISIS... Who? North Korea... Oh that cute country that removing all the guns from the DMZ? Employment rate... all time low (close enough). Stocks... record high. 2 Supreme court picks. Tax cut.

Can't believe you didn't see my Donald Trump character in that last post lol

[ElNono]

Obamacare was never a job killer, it just jacked up the premiums beyond repair... don't think getting rid of the individual mandate will help that part much, but it is a good thing for younger people like me who have the right to choose instead of paying $300+ a month or quitting my job and getting a shitty ACA marketplace plan like Oscar or Ambetter that is cheap but has shitty-ass doctors and small-ass networks. Second opinions are all OOP, etc.

The NK exchange was a win for Trump
Tariffs are a slight net loss for Trump
Repealing NAFTA would have raised prices and such, would have been bad for Trump
Tax cuts might not have been paid for, but they will... cutting Medicaid doesn't hurt the GOP, they can't cut SS or MediCARE that would be suicide.

So no policies or deregulation? :lol Exactly. Nothing happened with NK, tariffs, Nafta... the deficit from tax cuts will only matter when a Dem is back in control, per par... we go through this every 10 years or so, there's nothing new here. No draining the swamp, nothing. And this was with full control of Congress. Watch what happens now.

Like I said, his biggest accomplishment so far is that he didn't royally fuck up the economy (that said, dubya also had a bump up when he cut taxes, then it all came crashing down. Took Barry 4+ years to turn it around), and that the history books will reflect he picked a conservative for the SCOTUS.

[boutons_deux]

two Latinas

two Native American ladies

two Muslim ladies

... driving you KKK / white male supremacists fucking nuts

... as Krugman predicted, it's gonna be ugly, because of you dickless KKK types.

[ElNono]

YOU are fake news... He had the greatest first term ever... EVER... Syria... no problem. ISIS... Who? North Korea... Oh that cute country that removing all the guns from the DMZ? Employment rate... all time low (close enough). Stocks... record high. 2 Supreme court picks. Tax cut.

Can't believe you didn't see my Donald Trump character in that last post lol

I only see the best people, tbh...

[Millennial_Messiah]

What makes you think hispanics only vote democrat? They weren't hispanics there when Obama or Bill won either. The point is incumbency eventually has a price.

Nope, but the average white community has felt left behind by the progressive agenda... the Rust Belt is one area that isn't likely to slip in vast white majority in the coming decades, and as more minorities (especially Hispanics) become a higher proportion of the overall US population, and the progressive agenda keeps rolling along, the average whites in the Rust Belt will continue to trend further and further to the right.

There's a reason Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin etc have the highest industrial pollution rates in the country. They always vote NO on any "green" act that comes down the pipe that would raise costs of anything. They're very practical and price elastic and vote with their brains and wallets and not their hearts. The majority of them don't have a traditional bachelor's degree and that won't change for the foreseeable future. They're more street smart than book smart. They are more practical than intellectual. That all favors the right.

The main thing that favors the left is that they aren't super religious up there on average. But I don't think that really holds the cards up there. It's all about the demographics that aren't changing compared to states like Florida, Texas, California, the Northeast, Colorado, etc.

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH11:30 PM
Proposal 3 in Michigan has officially passed with 67 percent of the vote. That will result in big changes to voting in the Wolverine State, which will now have automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, straight-ticket voting, and the ability to vote absentee without an excuse.

[Spurtacular]

So no policies or deregulation? :lol Exactly. Nothing happened with NK, tariffs, Nafta... the deficit from tax cuts will only matter when a Dem is back in control, per par... we go through this every 10 years or so, there's nothing new here. No draining the swamp, nothing. And this was with full control of Congress. Watch what happens now.

Like I said, his biggest accomplishment so far is that he didn't royally fuck up the economy (that said, dubya also had a bump up when he cut taxes, then it all came crashing down. Took Barry 4+ years to turn it around), and that the history books will reflect he picked a conservative for the SCOTUS.

Trump got great results, and you're crying. Facts.

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER11:28 PM
Steve King now down 5 points with more than 50 percent reporting. The Upshot still says the race leans his way, but I’m not sure I buy that.

[ElNono]

Ugh, fucking Pelosi ugly face again.... this is what's wrong with the Dems... need fresh faces...

[Th'Pusher]

There is really no way to spin this as a victory for Donald (he will try but no rational person will buy it). He was rejected by urban and more importantly suburban voters in the house. He energized his base and had a vary favorable senate map, but tonight wasn’t a victory for Donald. That said, it wasn’t a blue wave either.

[ElNono]

Trump got great results, and you're crying. Facts.

When you don't have arguments, attack the messenger. Facts.

I asked to list his 'policies and deregulation', I've got none back. Your turn.

[Millennial_Messiah]

two Latinas

two Native American ladies

two Muslim ladies

... driving you KKK / white male supremacists fucking nuts

... as Krugman predicted, it's gonna be ugly because of you dickless KKK types.

I'd date the Muslim lady who won the Dearborn, Michigan district. I'd never convert to any religion for her, but I don't think she looks like the type that would mind. Can she cook? That is the question.

[DMC]

Ugh, fucking Pelosi ugly face again.... this is what's wrong with the Dems... need fresh faces...

I actually believe that the old dogs in congress keep change from happening. They bark a lot but there's no real bite. Could be a good thing for the GOP if the old folks stick around on the blue side. Young folks get too energetic with their legislation.

[ElNono]

This is what I hate about semen-shielders... you want to defend dead leader? fine, just put forth your arguments... I don't claim to be right, but come at me with arguments.

[DMC]

I'd date the Muslim lady who won the Dearborn, Michigan district. I'd never convert to any religion for her, but I don't think she looks like the type that would mind. Can she cook? That is the question.

You wouldn't need to convert. She'd probably cut your head off on video with a black banner in the background. Bet she loves Jews.

[Millennial_Messiah]

There is really no way to spin this as a victory for Donald (he will try but no rational person will buy it). He was rejected by urban and more importantly suburban voters in the house. He energized his base and had a vary favorable senate map, but tonight wasn’t a victory for Donald. That said, it wasn’t a blue wave either.

It's a victory for Trump because there was no blue wave that people last year thought there might be. Dems aren't winning the House by more than 10-ish votes.

[ElNono]

Nope, but the average white community has felt left behind by the progressive agenda... the Rust Belt is one area that isn't likely to slip in vast white majority in the coming decades, and as more minorities (especially Hispanics) become a higher proportion of the overall US population, and the progressive agenda keeps rolling along, the average whites in the Rust Belt will continue to trend further and further to the right.

There's a reason Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin etc have the highest industrial pollution rates in the country. They always vote NO on any "green" act that comes down the pipe that would raise costs of anything. They're very practical and price elastic and vote with their brains and wallets and not their hearts. The majority of them don't have a traditional bachelor's degree and that won't change for the foreseeable future. They're more street smart than book smart. They are more practical than intellectual. That all favors the right.

The main thing that favors the left is that they aren't super religious up there on average. But I don't think that really holds the cards up there. It's all about the demographics that aren't changing compared to states like Florida, Texas, California, the Northeast, Colorado, etc.

It's all in your head. The demographic consensus was that conservatives were on the road to extinction 4 years ago... never happened. This is really easy, the GOP can't continue to lose the popular vote the way they have in the general. It gives them a very slim margin to win. I don't know if Trump is the guy to buck that trend. He wasn't in the previous election.

[Millennial_Messiah]

You wouldn't need to convert. She'd probably cut your head off on video with a black banner in the background. Bet she loves Jews.

I seriously hope you're joking :lol


The Muslims I met in that Little Levant district couldn't be nicer and more moderate... probably 1 older woman with hijab was all I say... most of the women were wearing American clothes... Lebanese-American IT girl I met was dating a white American guy... Jordanian people are super pro American... Jordanian falafel was absolutely delicious at the place I went there... the majority there are Shiite, not Sunni, in fact

[ElNono]

I actually believe that the old dogs in congress keep change from happening. They bark a lot but there's no real bite. Could be a good thing for the GOP if the old folks stick around on the blue side. Young folks get too energetic with their legislation.

Of course it's great for the GOP... some people really need to be told to let go.

[Millennial_Messiah]

It's all in your head. The demographic consensus was that conservatives were on the road to extinction 4 years ago... never happened. This is really easy, the GOP can't continue to lose the popular vote the way they have in the general. It gives them a very slim margin to win. I don't know if Trump is the guy to buck that trend. He wasn't in the previous election.
Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and won it in 2004. It happens.


I think a lot of the people who voted against him for emotional reasons and were skeptical about how well he'd do, or afraid he'd drop nukes on any old place he felt like, well those fears were NOT justified and he will get more votes...

[ElNono]

If anything, we get two years of government freeze, which is not a terrible thing...

Unless Donnie starts ruling by Executive Order, which actually would be a terrible move, IMVHO...

[baseline bum]

GALEN DRUKE11:49 PM
CNN has called the Texas 7th for Democrat Lizzie Fletcher. I went to Houston to report on the race there this summer. Literally dotted with country clubs, the area is yet another well-educated, well-to-do urban/suburban district that has swung dramatically toward Democrats in recent years. In fact, it swung the most of any district outside of Utah from Romney to Clinton between 2012 and 2016 — a whole 23 points.

This is a symbolic win for Democrats. The district has been represented by Republicans since George H.W. Bush won it over half a century ago, in a then almost solidly blue Texas. That win was a sign of what was to come. In a highly urban, rapidly growing Texas, Democrats would certainly like to see this as a sign of what’s to come in for them as well.

[ElNono]

Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and won it in 2004. It happens.

I think a lot of the people who voted against him for emotional reasons and were skeptical about how well he'd do, or afraid he'd drop nukes on any old place he felt like, well those fears were NOT justified and he will get more votes...

Bush was riding 9/11... no president had that much support back then... that's why I'm saying the best Trump can do is start a war before the election...

[SnakeBoy]

I don't have a beef with Joe personally, he's just not a great candidate at this point in his career and with the current climate.

He wasn't a good candidate his last two attempts. Idk why so many Dems think he'd be good at it now.

[Millennial_Messiah]

If anything, we get two years of government freeze, which is not a terrible thing...

Unless Donnie starts ruling by Executive Order, which actually would be a terrible move, IMVHO...

Correct, that would be an atrocious move for Trump. He'd be better off sucking it up and letting nothing happen and blame it on the Democratic House blocking everything.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lmao Rick Scott's absolutely atrocious Spanish is awful :lmao

[ElNono]

He wasn't a good candidate his last two attempts. Idk why so many Dems think he'd be good at it now.

Because he's the only visible white guy candidate in the party right now, outside of Bernie... Maybe Beto can now take over...

[midnightpulp]

What makes you think hispanics only vote democrat? They weren't hispanics there when Obama or Bill won either. The point is incumbency eventually has a price.

:lol Yeah. Middle aged Hispanics of multiple generations are probably more conservative than rural whites.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Bush was riding 9/11... no president had that much support back then... that's why I'm saying the best Trump can do is start a war before the election...

Trump can't just start a war, either. There would have to be legitimate reason or provocation. Hopefully nothing on US soil, obviously. But the Democratic congress would have some say in blocking some unjustified war.

[ElNono]

Correct, that would be an atrocious move for Trump. He'd be better off sucking it up and letting nothing happen and blame it on the Democratic House blocking everything.

yup, but the real question is if he has the discipline to do that, and I'm willing to bet he doesn't.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Because he's the only visible white guy candidate in the party right now, outside of Bernie... Maybe Beto can now take over...
Beto is a Whexican like me in 8th grade going to middle school in South San, tbh.

[Spurtacular]

When you don't have arguments, attack the messenger. Facts.

I asked to list his 'policies and deregulation', I've got none back. Your turn.

He gave you the results. You write them off b/c it suits you. Record unemployment; eh, no big deal. Wiping out Obama's ISIS in blitzkrieg time; eh, big fuck.

:lmao "attacking the messenger"

[ElNono]

:lol Yeah. Middle aged Hispanics of multiple generations are probably more conservative than rural whites.

Hispanics are extremely catholic too. The only reason they're not a lock GOP voters is because the GOP keeps talking about them like they're trash.

They didn't learn anything from Reagan, after he amnestied and brought over all those Cuban exiles... that has been a solid GOP voting block in Florida for generations.

[DMC]

Of course it's great for the GOP... some people really need to be told to let go.

They won't let go because it's not just them, it's their family, their heritage, all their donors and constituents, and their "friends" on the other side of the isle. They won't relinquish that power for nothing, no fuckin' way. Just look at McCain... stayed there until he died.

[DMC]

He gave you the results. You write them off b/c it suits you. Record unemployment; eh, no big deal. Wiping out Obama's ISIS in blitzkrieg time; eh, big fuck.

:lmao "attacking the messenger"
To be fair I was using some satire. Most of that shit can be dissected and debunked, but the general GOPer probably believes it to be true. It will be debate talking points though. The Dems have 2 years to get ahead of it.

[spurraider21]

NATE SILVER (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/) 11:56PM
Steve King has now pulled into a tie in the Iowa 4th. Maybe I should have listened to The Upshot when they said that race would tighten.

[DMC]

Hispanics are extremely catholic too. The only reason they're not a lock GOP voters is because the GOP keeps talking about them like they're trash.

They didn't learn anything from Reagan, after he amnestied and brought over all those Cuban exiles... that has been a solid GOP voting block in Florida for generations.
I was wondering why Trump didn't just say "4000 refugees headed our way? Fuck, send the welcome wagon.. we welcome them!"

That would have squashed a lot of momentum.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Trump...

GOOD:

- conquered Raqqa and defeated 95% of ISIS
- stabilized the situation with North Korea (for now)
- has fostered large-scale job growth
- has boomed the economy
- removed the individual health insurance mandate
- distanced himself with the Access Hollywood and other scandals crap
- put in 2 good SCOTUS judges

BAD:

- re-lifted sanctions on Iran, giving monopoly to OPEC and raising gas prices here
- tariffs
- no wall... but that was impractical to begin with, for the most part
- angered Syria and Russia which were potential powerful allies for us

[ElNono]

He gave you the results. You write them off b/c it suits you. Record unemployment; eh, no big deal. Wiping out Obama's ISIS in blitzkrieg time; eh, big fuck.

:lmao "attacking the messenger"

What results? Unemployment was already heavily on the decline when he took over, the economy was booming, facts. It's not like he was handed a recession or anything, AND, I specifically gave him credit for not fucking it up, so it's not like I'm pretending he screwed it up.

Another chance to list his famous policies and deregulation slips by. I already listed his supposedly biggest accomplishments, did I miss anything? You can correct me if I'm wrong, state your case.

And when you say I'm crying you're attacking the messenger... I'm stating my opinion and having a civil convo with another poster. I disagree with people here all the time, tbh...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Hispanics are extremely catholic too. The only reason they're not a lock GOP voters is because the GOP keeps talking about them like they're trash.

They didn't learn anything from Reagan, after he amnestied and brought over all those Cuban exiles... that has been a solid GOP voting block in Florida for generations.
I agree... I don't think it's too late for the GOP to flip the Hispanic vote considering they are socially conservative of the rest of the world for the most part. They can't just let EVERYONE in, but they need to appreciate them more and give the hardest working people a chance

[ducks]

Ugh, fucking Pelosi ugly face again.... this is what's wrong with the Dems... need fresh faces...

lol if she is speaker of house
Lol is she loses speaker of house

[ElNono]

They won't let go because it's not just them, it's their family, their heritage, all their donors and constituents, and their "friends" on the other side of the isle. They won't relinquish that power for nothing, no fuckin' way. Just look at McCain... stayed there until he died.

It damages the party, IMO... I know voters put them there, so there's that legitimacy, but it's we all know they're not there because they love public service... (lmao)

[Millennial_Messiah]

What results? Unemployment was already heavily on the decline when he took over, the economy was booming, facts. It's not like he was handed a recession or anything, AND, I specifically gave him credit for not fucking it up, so it's not like I'm pretending he screwed it up.

Another chance to list his famous policies and deregulation slips by. I already listed his supposedly biggest accomplishments, did I miss anything? You can correct me if I'm wrong, state your case.

And when you say I'm crying you're attacking the messenger... I'm stating my opinion and having a civil convo with another poster. I disagree with people here all the time, tbh...

Stimulus and tax cuts are both expansionary policy with similar economic effect. Dems love stimulus, GOPs love tax cuts. Both are equally hard to pay for for the government. But tax cuts put more money in peoples' pockets unlike stimulus spending bills.

[spurraider21]

What results? Unemployment was already heavily on the decline when he took over, the economy was booming, facts. It's not like he was handed a recession or anything, AND, I specifically gave him credit for not fucking it up, so it's not like I'm pretending he screwed it up.

Another chance to list his famous policies and deregulation slips by. I already listed his supposedly biggest accomplishments, did I miss anything? You can correct me if I'm wrong, state your case.

And when you say I'm crying you're attacking the messenger... I'm stating my opinion and having a civil convo with another poster. I disagree with people here all the time, tbh...
:lol expecting derp to support his position? do you not remember the "hogg is a liar" thread?

dude still shrivels when ask to name a single crime he thinks the clintons committed despite his constant claims that they had been running a criminal enterprise for decades

[Millennial_Messiah]

.... Scott wins.


Fox just needs to call the Tester race for me to go to sleep. Got work tomorrow.

[boutons_deux]

"Obamacare was never a job killer,

it just jacked up the premiums beyond repair." :lol

[ElNono]

I was wondering why Trump didn't just say "4000 refugees headed our way? Fuck, send the welcome wagon.. we welcome them!"

That would have squashed a lot of momentum.

Nobody sane believes a word he says at this point anyways, so I'm not sure it would've mattered. Plus, it's hard to make a point about building a wall if Nicaraguan zombies aren't attacking...

[AaronY]

Nah, age is one problem, presentation is the other problem. If there's somebody that can look even more than a fool than Trump, that's Biden. Plus, you need fresh faces... look at Obama, even Trump... people with short political careers, where they don't have a ton of skeleton in their closets...

I don't have a beef with Joe personally, he's just not a great candidate at this point in his career and with the current climate.
Maybe but so many of the new faces are far left progressive retards. many of the people who won tonight were centrists and moderates. Nelson ran ahead of Gillum even which was surprising. Beto did good but a lot of that was Cruz being awful.

Another thing too is I joked earlier about the darkie Gillum firing up the white trash rural people to get out and vote but its true. a lot of these people have been fired up by rightwing grievance bullshit for 10 years now. countrys different than it was in 2008 in that regard (though obama himself would beat Trump) Lot of Nathan89 and ducks type people doing votingrepublican.jpeg with every breath they breath that I even wonder how to reach some of these honkies. So its going to be interesting how a minority or which minority would do good in 2020. I would like michelle if not biden but shes not running.

[ElNono]

Stimulus and tax cuts are both expansionary policy with similar economic effect. Dems love stimulus, GOPs love tax cuts. Both are equally hard to pay for for the government. But tax cuts put more money in peoples' pockets unlike stimulus spending bills.

The difference being that public debt was actually shrinking towards the end of the previous administration... dubya's tax cuts came from the fact that Billy handed him a budget surplus. This is the same story over and over again...

Trickle down doesn't exist since the financial sector makes more money than labor... at the end of the day, record profits for corps happen with barry and trump, so does the vehicle matter at all? The poor still poor, the rich still rich... there's no paradigm shift here.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol expecting derp to support his position? do you not remember the "hogg is a liar" thread?

dude still shrivels when ask to name a single crime he thinks the clintons committed despite his constant claims that they had been running a criminal enterprise for decades
Vince Foster
Bill raped
Bill lied

and then you have the sketchy, fraudulent stuff but not necessarily criminal like the Clinton Foundation taking ~90% of donations for their personal gains and real estate investments instead of the stuff they endorsed and advertised.

& Hillary lied about being shot at in Yugoslavia

Dropping the ball in Benghazi and then downplaying the severity of the outcome was a terrible look.

The emails... Meh. That's a 50-50 thing. The Wikileaks guy who died in an "accident" around the time of the 2016 DNC was a bigger thing, imo.

Used superdelegates (which are anti-American) and establishment financing and leverage to cheat Bernie big time.


Don't ever try to defend crooked Shillary. Those are the Democrats that are getting curbstomped by the public. Tbh.

[RandomGuy]

Pete Sessions lost his seat.

Whoops.

[ElNono]

Maybe but so many of the new faces are far left progressive retards. many of the people who won tonight were centrists and moderates. Nelson ran ahead of Gillum even which was surprising. Beto did good but a lot of that was Cruz being awful.

Another thing too is I joked earlier about the darkie Gillum firing up the white trash rural people to get out and vote but its true. a lot of these people have been fired up by rightwing grievance bullshit for 10 years now. countrys different than it was in 2008 in that regard (though obama himself would beat Trump) Lot of Nathan89 and ducks type people doing votingrepublican.jpeg with every breath they breath that I even wonder how to reach some of these honkies. So its going to be interesting how a minority or which minority would do good in 2020. I would like michelle if not biden but shes not running.

But the point is that neither base can win the general on their own. It's all about undecideds, and getting those people to vote. Those people clearly are tired of the same old politicos. Happened with Barry and Trump. That's why I can't understand why somebody like Pelosi doesn't do the party a favor and steps aside, at least as the house majority leader. She's going to be the face of the Dems for the next two years, and I'm already hating having a 4K TV...

Bernie for example is relatable, but the fact that he means what he says scares some people (I do think he would've done better than Shillary though). So yeah, some young white moderate would work.

[angrydude]

Now Trump gets to blame everything bad that happens for the next two years on the democrats! Gaining seats in the Senate was a big deal. The House can potentially flip every two years. Not the Senate.

[Spurminator]

Vince Foster
Bill raped
Bill lied

and then you have the sketchy, fraudulent stuff but not necessary criminal like the Clinton Foundation taking ~90% of donations for their personal gains and real estate investments instead of the stuff they endorsed and advertised.

& Hillary lied about being shot at in Yugoslavia

Dropping the ball in Benghazi and then downplaying the severity of the outcome was a terrible look.

The emails... Meh. That's a 50-50 thing. The Wikileaks guy who died in an "accident" around the time of the 2016 DNC was a bigger thing, imo.

Used superdelegates (which are anti-American) and establishment financing and leverage to cheat Bernie big time.


Don't ever try to defend crooked Shillary. Those are the Democrats that are getting curbstomped by the public. Tbh.

You're a Pizzagate away from a full deck there.

[angrydude]

You're a Pizzagate away from a full deck there.

Which one of those allegations do you disagree with? She's a slab of meat.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Pete Sessions lost his seat.

Whoops.
Covers liberal central Dallas through SMU and then Vickery Meadow (nearly 100% minority community, also had the Ebola in 2014) into eastern Dallas metro area, so no surprise.

[boutons_deux]

I'm no Hillary fan, but you boys have been duped by 25 years of Repug slander, NONE of which has stuck in court, or even BEEN in court.

It's pure lies, slander, because Repugs knew, many years ago, that Hillary was sure to be Dem candidate and Pres.

[ElNono]

Which one of those allegations do you disagree with? She's a slab of meat.

well, they're allegations, that's the point. (and not defending Shillary here, who I find a power-hungry despicable person).

[Millennial_Messiah]

Now Trump gets to blame everything bad that happens for the next two years on the democrats! Gaining seats in the Senate was a big deal. The House can potentially flip every two years. Not the Senate.

I agree 100%. Dems would have preferred a loss in the House if it meant getting a Senate majority.

[DMC]

Vince Foster
Bill raped
Bill lied

and then you have the sketchy, fraudulent stuff but not necessarily criminal like the Clinton Foundation taking ~90% of donations for their personal gains and real estate investments instead of the stuff they endorsed and advertised.

& Hillary lied about being shot at in Yugoslavia

Dropping the ball in Benghazi and then downplaying the severity of the outcome was a terrible look.

The emails... Meh. That's a 50-50 thing. The Wikileaks guy who died in an "accident" around the time of the 2016 DNC was a bigger thing, imo.

Used superdelegates (which are anti-American) and establishment financing and leverage to cheat Bernie big time.


Don't ever try to defend crooked Shillary. Those are the Democrats that are getting curbstomped by the public. Tbh.

I don't think Philo is being completely accurate. Spurtacular was asked to name a crime the Clintons have been charged with. Anyone here can name crimes most politicians have committed daily. Speeding for example.

[DMC]

Pete Sessions lost his seat.

Whoops.

Sup Spurs Homer :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm no Hillary fan, but you boys have been duped by 25 years of Repug slander, NONE of which has stuck in court, or even BEEN in court.

It's pure lies, slander, because Repugs knew, many years ago, that Hillary was sure to be Dem candidate and Pres.

Shillary was a cheater, criminal, liar, snake and plausible murderer. That much is true.


Yeah, the GOP will slander someone like Bernie, but it won't work. Bernie is a genuine, candid guy who means what he says. Beto is an interesting candidate because he's too young to really slander much.

[spurraider21]

I don't think Philo is being completely accurate. Spurtacular was asked to name a crime the Clintons have been charged with. Anyone here can name crimes most politicians have committed daily. Speeding for example.
^Philo

[Millennial_Messiah]

I don't think Philo is being completely accurate. Spurtacular was asked to name a crime the Clintons have been charged with. Anyone here can name crimes most politicians have committed daily. Speeding for example.
from speeding to everything Anthony Weiner did. but yeah.

[ElNono]

Now Trump gets to blame everything bad that happens for the next two years on the democrats! Gaining seats in the Senate was a big deal. The House can potentially flip every two years. Not the Senate.

:lol He already did that the past two years when the dems didn't even have a majority. That's really the problem with Dennison, he has zero credibility/political discipline.

tbh, results are in line with what was expected. I didn't even think Dems would scoop in 4 governorship...

[AaronY]

Sinema is in a tight race too atm. Whats the current senate numbers? If its like 54-46 R senate very hard for Democrats to flip it in 2020 even if they win the general

[DMC]

^Philo

There's a difference between "couldn't name a crime they committed" and "couldn't name a crime they were charged with".

I think you play the margins on these things.

Now run along and drag up a post to debunk that.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol He already did that the past two years when the dems didn't even have a majority. That's really the problem with Dennison, he has zero credibility/political discipline.

tbh, results are in line with what was expected. I didn't even think Dems would scoop in 4 governorship...
the bad thing for Democrats is they much would have preferred to win, say Florida and Ohio, or Iowa instead of say, Kansas...

[hitmanyr2k]

Trump...

GOOD:

- conquered Raqqa and defeated 95% of ISIS
- stabilized the situation with North Korea (for now)
- has fostered large-scale job growth
- has boomed the economy
- removed the individual health insurance mandate
- distanced himself with the Access Hollywood and other scandals crap
- put in 2 good SCOTUS judges

BAD:

- re-lifted sanctions on Iran, giving monopoly to OPEC and raising gas prices here
- tariffs
- no wall... but that was impractical to begin with, for the most part
- angered Syria and Russia which were potential powerful allies for us

That was actually a plan drawn up by the Obama administration and Trump's crooked NSA Mike "lock her up" Flynn tried to deep-six that plan.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/report-flynn-blocked-us-military-plan-that-turkey-opposed

Nothing is truly stable with N. Korea. Trump tried to take credit for having a dog and pony show with Kim where they signed some vague, meaningless document with no concrete stipulations whatsoever. Since then N. Korea hasn't really had to do anything of significance regarding their nukes or their program.

Fostering growth organically would have been an accomplishment. Breaking the bank with tax cuts while the administration keeps spending, spending, spending is hardly anything to brag about. The Republican mantra that we're going to grow our way toward paying for those tax cuts has been a 40 year myth aka bullshit.

The economy was on a good track when Trump took office. He really didn't have to do much.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Sinema is in a tight race too atm. Wgats the current senate numbers? If its like 54-46 R senate very hard for Democrats to flip it in 2020 even if they win the general

assuming McSally beats Sinema and Tester holds on to Montana, it'll be 55-45


the next cycle is a slightly pro-GOP map, but not quite as favorable as this one


the 2022 cycle could be a golden opportunity for a Democratic flip in the Senate. That's the big pro-Dem map cycle that the GOP overperformed in the last two times due to the 2010 red wave and piggybacking Trump in 2016.

[spurraider21]

mah nig brad sherman held his seat

he's a nice guy... but i actually voted against him in the primaries. he was among those who tried introducing articles of impeachment which was nothing more than a stunt that takes up time he could have used to have actually done something productive. not a fan of that kind of demagoguery

[baseline bum]

Sinema is in a tight race too atm. Wgats the current senate numbers? If its like 54-46 R senate very hard for Democrats to flip it in 2020 even if they win the general

It's 53-44 right now with Montana, Arizona, and Nevada left.

[ElNono]

the bad thing for Democrats is they much would have preferred to win, say Florida and Ohio, or Iowa instead of say, Kansas...

They flipped Illinois and Michigan with pretty beefy margins... Walz also won Minnesota pretty solidly... last two are states Trump carried. Florida was a coin toss again.

[AaronY]

It's 53-44 right now with Montana, Arizona, and Nevada left.
Lmao fml

[ElNono]

That was actually a plan drawn up by the Obama administration and Trump's crooked NSA Mike "lock her up" Flynn tried to deep-six that plan.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/report-flynn-blocked-us-military-plan-that-turkey-opposed

Nothing is truly stable with N. Korea. Trump tried to take credit for having a dog and pony show with Kim where they signed some vague, meaningless document with no concrete stipulations whatsoever. Since then N. Korea hasn't really had to do anything of significance regarding their nukes or their program.

Fostering growth organically would have been an accomplishment. Breaking the bank with tax cuts while the administration keeps spending, spending, spending is hardly anything to brag about. The Republican mantra that we're going to grow our way toward paying for those tax cuts has been a 40 year myth aka bullshit.

The economy was on a good track when Trump took office. He really didn't have to do much.

You should add that removing the individual health insurance mandate was pretty much to torpedo obamacare (which still hasn't worked, we'll see for how long), and that his actual campaign healthcare policy was a bunch of baloney that had nothing to do with what Congress presented as an alternative (and still couldn't get the votes to pass).

[baseline bum]

Lmao fml

And Tester is only up +3 with 36% reporting

[Millennial_Messiah]

They flipped Illinois and Michigan with pretty beefy margins... Walz also won Minnesota pretty solidly... last two are states Trump carried. Florida was a coin toss again.

Incorrect; Trump only carried Michigan, not Illinois or Minnesota. Illinois is a solid blue state due to most of the population being concentrated in the Chicago metro area. Large Hispanic and Black populations. Only place in the Midwest with significant Latino pop.

Michigan is one that surprised me in 2016, but it's one the GOP can live without if necessary... however, demographics outside of Detroit metro are shifting red, and there isn't much of a Hispanic population. But again, Trump didn't need Michigan to win. If Walker holds on to Wisconsin tonight, that's enormous.

[Millennial_Messiah]

You should add that removing the individual health insurance mandate was pretty much to torpedo obamacare (which still hasn't worked, we'll see for how long), and that his actual campaign healthcare policy was a bunch of baloney that had nothing to do with what Congress presented as an alternative (and still couldn't get the votes to pass).

I think the best case scenario is to keep the ACA Marketplace option for low income peeps, possibly increase those premiums a small amount, but medical tort reform would help as well... that is more the root of the problem which completely sailed over ACA's head. Limit on lawsuits for malpractice, countered by a MANDATORY check and regulation on malpractice that would strip doctors of their license if they malpracticed more than X amount of times.

There also needs to be a public reviews portal on doctors, more transparency beyond Yelp or Google reviews. People's lives are on the line.

[AaronY]

Bernie for example is relatable, but the fact that he means what he says scares some people (I do think he would've done better than Shillary though). So yeah, some young white moderate would work.
Well Bernie scares me because of his retard economic policies.

Maybe Joe Kennedy III? Lmao. I dunno wish Michelle would run

Harris, Booker, Gillum (especially with him being outrun by fucking Bill Nelson), all seem awful. Cant think of a minority/woman that I think would do good

[AaronY]

Oprah 2020!

[AaronY]

And Tester is only up +3 with 36% reporting
Who you want in 2020?

[baseline bum]

I think the best case scenario is to keep the ACA Marketplace option for low income peeps, possibly increase those premiums a small amount, but medical tort reform would help as well... that is more the root of the problem which completely sailed over ACA's head. Limit on lawsuits for malpractice, countered by a MANDATORY check and regulation on malpractice that would strip doctors of their license if they malpracticed more than X amount of times.

There also needs to be a public reviews portal on doctors, more transparency beyond Yelp or Google reviews. People's lives are on the line.

Tort reform did jack shit to lower insurance prices when implemented in Texas

[Millennial_Messiah]

Who you want in 2020?

Bernie or Beto.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Tort reform did jack shit to lower insurance prices when implemented in Texas
Of course there would need to be an accompanying regulation on doctors' malpractice insurance prices as well as prices for individual procedures and operations. And of course on the prices insurance companies can increase their charge on individuals for insurance plans.


Personally... I'd be in favor of scrapping private insurance industry and doing public health insurance at 5% of gross pay of your income if you don't qualify for a ACA Marketplace plan.

[ElNono]

Incorrect; Trump only carried Michigan, not Illinois or Minnesota. Illinois is a solid blue state due to most of the population being concentrated in the Chicago metro area. Large Hispanic and Black populations. Only place in the Midwest with significant Latino pop.

Michigan is one that surprised me in 2016, but it's one the GOP can live without if necessary... however, demographics outside of Detroit metro are shifting red, and there isn't much of a Hispanic population. But again, Trump didn't need Michigan to win. If Walker holds on to Wisconsin tonight, that's enormous.

Oops, got it mixed up with Wisconsin...

[baseline bum]

Who you want in 2020?

I like Warren best but she has a whiny voice so can't win, so I hope it comes down to Bernie vs Beto. Please no Booker or Harris.

[ElNono]

I think the best case scenario is to keep the ACA Marketplace option for low income peeps, possibly increase those premiums a small amount, but medical tort reform would help as well... that is more the root of the problem which completely sailed over ACA's head. Limit on lawsuits for malpractice, countered by a MANDATORY check and regulation on malpractice that would strip doctors of their license if they malpracticed more than X amount of times.

There also needs to be a public reviews portal on doctors, more transparency beyond Yelp or Google reviews. People's lives are on the line.

Tort reform already tried in Texas, another buzzword that didn't do a thing to control costs. Neither did Obamacare for that matter.

Let's face it, every country not named the USA already dealt with healthcare costs, and the solution isn't capitalist-friendly. So we're just going to continue being the suckers that subsidize the rest of the world. C'est la vie.

[RGMCSE]

The difference being that public debt was actually shrinking towards the end of the previous administration... dubya's tax cuts came from the fact that Billy handed him a budget surplus. This is the same story over and over again...

Trickle down doesn't exist since the financial sector makes more money than labor... at the end of the day, record profits for corps happen with barry and trump, so does the vehicle matter at all? The poor still poor, the rich still rich... there's no paradigm shift here.


I was reading some other political thread somewhere recently and this black kid said that he’s going to vote republican from now on because he’s making hundreds more a month since trump was elected. He said he was happy with the extra income because now he can afford a few things that impacted his quality of life.

The immediate response to this was some dem that told him this is wrong and that his extra income would better benefit others in need and basically chided him for making more money.


Was the dem right?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Tort reform already tried in Texas, another buzzword that didn't do a thing to control costs. Neither did Obamacare for that matter.

Let's face it, every country not named the USA already dealt with healthcare costs, and the solution isn't capitalist-friendly. So we're just going to continue being the suckers that subsidize the rest of the world. C'est la vie.
I've had long, hard thoughts about socialized healthcare, but then you worry about doctor quality, long lines, availability, timing etc... for small populations like Sweden, it works, but for larger countries, public healthcare is a problem...

I think socialized health insurance is a better idea, tbh...

[ElNono]

Well Bernie scares me because of his retard economic policies.

Maybe Joe Kennedy III? Lmao. I dunno wish Michelle would run

Harris, Booker, Gillum (especially with him being outrun by fucking Bill Nelson), all seem awful. Cant think of a minority/woman that I think would do good

Besides Beto you also have Castro. Dems should really go all out like the GOP did last cycle, tbh... even if it includes Oprah...

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY12:59 AM
Montana Senate results continue to trickle in. One of the bluest counties of any size, Silver Bow County, is almost entirely in. Tester leads there by 46 points, and he won it by 45 points in 2012, when he won re-election by a bit less than 4 points statewide. So Tester may be where he needs to be, but Republican Matt Rosendale definitely has a shot of winning.

[baseline bum]

Well Bernie scares me because of his retard economic policies.

Maybe Joe Kennedy III? Lmao. I dunno wish Michelle would run

Harris, Booker, Gillum (especially with him being outrun by fucking Bill Nelson), all seem awful. Cant think of a minority/woman that I think would do good

Bernie can promise the moon like Trump and congress would never agree to any of his policies.

[AaronY]

I like Warren best but she has a whiny voice so can't win, so I hope it comes down to Bernie vs Beto. Please no Booker or Harris.
You didnt use to like bernie I thought? called his free college stuff santa clause bullshit iirc. Republicans might have the senate for a long time so maybe it wont matter as maybe he wont be able to do that stuff security

[AaronY]

Bernie can promise the moon like Trump and congress would never agree to any of his policies.
Oh yeah ok nvm didnt see this

[ElNono]

I was reading some other political thread somewhere recently and this black kid said that he’s going to vote republican from now on because he’s making hundreds more a month since trump was elected. He said he was happy with the extra income because now he can afford a few things that impacted his quality of life.

The immediate response to this was some dem that told him this is wrong and that his extra income would better benefit others in need and basically chided him for making more money.

Was the dem right?

Anecdotes are just that, anecdotes. I'm sure the employees of Sears and Toys R Us that went bankrupt have other anecdotes to tell.

I don't think I said anything improper, tbh, do you think the economic status quo has changed at all with this or the previous administration?

[baseline bum]

You didnt use to like bernie I thought? called his free college stuff santa clause bullshit iirc. Republicans might have the senate for a long time so maybe it wont matter as maybe he wont be able to do that stuff security

His free college talk is Santa Claus bullshit unless he wants to make it hard to get into college like they do in Germany. But he'd never get it passed anyways so it doesn't matter. I think he'd drive turnout.

[DMX7]

Well... I'm calling it a night. What a disaster in the Senate but the only thing that really matters given that we knew GOP would control the Senate is the House flips and that is a game changer.... Let the mayhem begin! :hungry:

[DMC]

Besides Beto you also have Castro. Dems should really go all out like the GOP did last cycle, tbh... even if it includes Oprah...

Not sure Oprah wants to air her dirty laundry before the world. Not that she's not already a target, but does she have entire legal firms actively digging into her past all across the world, into her finances, etc...?

[baseline bum]

Milwaukee County has 45,000 absentee ballots left uncounted that could help Evers over Walker.

[ElNono]

I've had long, hard thoughts about socialized healthcare, but then you worry about doctor quality, long lines, availability, timing etc... for small populations like Sweden, it works, but for larger countries, public healthcare is a problem...

I think socialized health insurance is a better idea, tbh...

There's mixed systems too. Lots of countries don't regulate all prices, and if you have the money and want to pay for better/concierge service, you can. Plenty of options to explore. In the meantime, we already have socialized medicine (we already spend more per capita that countries with full blown socialized healthcare), it's just extremely inefficient and we overpay terribly.

[Millennial_Messiah]

His free college talk is Santa Claus bullshit unless he wants to make it hard to get into college like they do in Germany. But he'd never get it passed anyways so it doesn't matter. I think he'd drive turnout.

That's how it should be, honestly. And there shouldn't be elective classes like arts and humanities beyond sophomore level in college. That just increases unemployment and underemployment big time.

[DMC]

Anecdotes are just that, anecdotes. I'm sure the employees of Sears and Toys R Us that went bankrupt have other anecdotes to tell.

I don't think I said anything improper, tbh, do you think the economic status quo has changed at all with this or the previous administration?

Even if he does think it has, isn't that just another anecdote?

What do the experts think?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Anecdotes are just that, anecdotes. I'm sure the employees of Sears and Toys R Us that went bankrupt have other anecdotes to tell.

I don't think I said anything improper, tbh, do you think the economic status quo has changed at all with this or the previous administration?

Sears and Toys R Us went out of business because they didn't embrace the digital revolution like Walmart and others did.

[baseline bum]

Well... I'm calling it a night. What a disaster in the Senate but the only thing that really matters given that we knew GOP would control the Senate is the House flips and that is a game changer.... Let the mayhem begin! :hungry:

The senate mattered. Now it's really hard to see the Democrats able to take it in 2020, especially with Doug Jones up for re-election then. Tester has to hold on and Rosen taking Nevada is a must; especially since Sinema taking Arizona looks doubtful now. Even if the Democrats win the presidency in 2020 it's hard to see them being able to nominate any supreme court justices.

[ElNono]

Not sure Oprah wants to air her dirty laundry before the world. Not that she's not already a target, but does she have entire legal firms actively digging into her past all across the world, into her finances, etc...?

Here is where we get into the equivalences game, and why I mention Trump is a weak candidate. Trump dispelled the myth you need to show your finances to win, and that's an area he can't bait other candidates. Trump also has shown your popularity can give you a pass for a lot of past transgressions.

A politico couldn't get away with it, but a media figure probably can.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Milwaukee County has 45,000 absentee ballots left uncounted that could help Evers over Walker.

Doubtful. Fox just explained the math. Too many rural areas and precincts left. Madison completely done.

[pgardn]

Anecdotes are just that, anecdotes. I'm sure the employees of Sears and Toys R Us that went bankrupt have other anecdotes to tell.

I don't think I said anything improper, tbh, do you think the economic status quo has changed at all with this or the previous administration?

Of the country?

Hell yes.

The spending is outrageous. Republicans turned to Democrats. If the attempted offset will be SS, Medicare....

Hell yes.

[ElNono]

Even if he does think it has, isn't that just another anecdote?

What do the experts think?

Well, I'd like him to present his theory of economic readjustment of the status quo due to the recent economic policies. We'll see what his opinion is.

And you're the Expert, last I checked... ;)

[Millennial_Messiah]

The senate mattered. Now it's really hard to see the Democrats able to take it in 2020, especially with Doug Jones up for re-election then. Tester has to hold on and Rosen taking Nevada is a must; especially since Sinema taking Arizona looks doubtful now. Even if the Democrats win the presidency in 2020 it's hard to see them being able to nominate any supreme court justices.

2022 is a good bet for the Dems to take back the Senate, particularly if Trump wins re-election and some shit hits the fan (recession? popped bubble?)


Pat Toomey won't win again... Portman, Johnson, and the Zona seat will be barn burners, which is bad for the GOP.

[baseline bum]

Doubtful. Fox just explained the math. Too many rural areas and precincts left. Madison completely done.

How many outstanding votes are left in the rural districts?

[DMC]

Here is where we get into the equivalences game, and why I mention Trump is a weak candidate. Trump dispelled the myth you need to show your finances to win, and that's an area he can't bait other candidates. Trump also has shown your popularity can give you a pass for a lot of past transgressions.

A politico couldn't get away with it, but a media figure probably can.

It's not about whether or not she can get away with it, but whether or not she wants her life to change that much. Donald was already a pariah.

[ElNono]

Of the country?

Hell yes.

The spending is outrageous. Republicans turned to Democrats. If the attempted offset will be SS, Medicare....

Hell yes.

What I mean is, do you think the poorer are getting richer and the richer are getting poorer? ie: do you feel there's an economic paradigm change? I don't see it.

Republicans have been putting spending on the government credit card since the Reagan days... I mean, we can go through Medicare Part D, etc. There's nothing new there.

[DMC]

Well, I'd like him to present his theory of economic readjustment of the status quo due to the recent economic policies. We'll see what his opinion is.

And you're the Expert, last I checked... ;)

I'm retired. :)

[Millennial_Messiah]

Of the country?

Hell yes.

The spending is outrageous. Republicans turned to Democrats. If the attempted offset will be SS, Medicare....

Hell yes.

Republicans would commit suicide by cutting SS or Medicare, and cutting military spending would be a toughie as well... maybe better than the first two, though. Medicaid can go.

[pgardn]

What I mean is, do you think the poorer are getting richer and the richer are getting poorer? ie: do you feel there's an economic paradigm change? I don't see it.

Republicans have been putting spending on the government credit card since the Reagan days... I mean, we can go through Medicare Part D, etc. There's nothing new there.

If the offset is what I stated, absolutely.
somebody is going to pay this debt.

[ElNono]

Sears and Toys R Us went out of business because they didn't embrace the digital revolution like Walmart and others did.

Sears tried, but were late to the game. They also got obliterated by hedge funds... but, regardless of reasons, you can always find an anecdote that suits a narrative, that's why generalizing that is useless.

[ElNono]

It's not about whether or not she can get away with it, but whether or not she wants her life to change that much. Donald was already a pariah.

That's certainly up to her... obviously, she's toyed with the idea. These people are set for life, finding a new challenge and power is what it's all about.

[SnakeBoy]

The senate mattered. Now it's really hard to see the Democrats able to take it in 2020, especially with Doug Jones up for re-election then. Tester has to hold on and Rosen taking Nevada is a must; especially since Sinema taking Arizona looks doubtful now. Even if the Democrats win the presidency in 2020 it's hard to see them being able to nominate any supreme court justices.

It really did. A young 7-2 conservative court is entirely possible. Dems shouldn't be taking solace in a slim house majority.

[baseline bum]

Tester behind now :pctoss

[Millennial_Messiah]

It really did. A young 7-2 conservative court is entirely possible. Dems shouldn't be taking solace in a slim house majority.

6-3 is the most likely scenario, but still, don't think the green police/green taxes/VAT taxes like they have in Europe will ever happen, which is a damn good thing tbh.


Only thing I worry about there is a Roe v. Wade reversal, which would be horrid. Hopefully they are reasonable enough to leave that puppy alone.

[ElNono]

If the offset is what I stated, absolutely.
somebody is going to pay this debt.

why? those debts are historically never paid. Normally they're liquefied through inflation. The fact that the US has no debt in foreign denominated currency makes it impossible* to default on it.

* Unless Congress plays some dog and pony show.

[baseline bum]

6-3 is the most likely scenario, but still, don't think the green police/green taxes/VAT taxes like they have in Europe will ever happen, which is a damn good thing tbh.


Only thing I worry about there is a Roe v. Wade reversal, which would be horrid. Hopefully they are reasonable enough to leave that puppy alone.

Roe Vs Wade won't be officially overturned. It will only be overturned in practice via the states cutting away at abortion rights.

[Millennial_Messiah]

why? those debts are historically never paid. Normally they're liquefied through inflation. The fact that the US has no debt in foreign denominated currency makes it impossible* to default on it.

* Unless Congress plays some dog and pony show.
exactly. but conservatives don't like inflation beyond a small nominal rate... they like to put a bunch of money in the bank and sit on it. stay away from the stocks. maybe invest in some real estate. but stay away from the stocks.

[RGMCSE]

Anecdotes are just that, anecdotes. I'm sure the employees of Sears and Toys R Us that went bankrupt have other anecdotes to tell.

I don't think I said anything improper, tbh, do you think the economic status quo has changed at all with this or the previous administration?


You didnt say anything wrong. I was just curious about your comment about the poor staying poor and the rich staying rich and no paradim shift. I’m just trying to understand what you meant by that. Are you saying you want the roles completely reversed?

That’s why I brought up that exchange between the black republican and the dem chiding him over his improved financial situation. I find it very concerning that someone would criticize another over financial self improvement. The dem replied in disgust because a mere couple hundred dollars would benefit the less fortunate. My opinion is that the people that are motivated to use the available tools and programs to educate themselves and eventually work and gain financial security through hard work is to be commended not discouraged.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Roe Vs Wade won't be officially overturned. It will only be overturned in practice via the states cutting away at abortion rights.

they'll make it a states rights thing making it even shittier to live in the deep south, tbh.

if Texas overturns abortion rights I'll move to ohio

[Millennial_Messiah]

Walker is now losing by a hair. Big Swing State in 2020. Still mostly rural precincts to come, but still. BIG time.

[baseline bum]

Walker is now losing by a hair. Big Swing State in 2020. Still mostly rural precincts to come, but still. BIG time.

45,000 absentee votes from Milwaukee County coming in pretty soon too though. No idea which way this one goes.

[Millennial_Messiah]

45,000 absentee votes from Milwaukee County coming in pretty soon too though. No idea which way this one goes.

If absentees are mostly military, it could be closer to 50-50 than you would hope.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Stacey Abrams has an obnoxious gap in her beaver-like front teeth. And, she's fat as a pig. Yuck.

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER1:39 AM
I’d be careful on Montana there. Our model is just looking at the overall vote count and not where the outstanding votes are from. The Upshot’s model thinks there’s a lot left from Missoula that will likely put Tester ahead.

[ElNono]

You didnt say anything wrong. I was just curious about your comment about the poor staying poor and the rich staying rich and no paradim shift. I’m just trying to understand what you meant by that. Are you saying you want the roles completely reversed?

That’s why I brought up that exchange between the black republican and the dem chiding him over his improved financial situation. I find it very concerning that someone would criticize another over financial self improvement. The dem replied in disgust because a mere couple hundred dollars would benefit the less fortunate. My opinion is that the people that are motivated to use the available tools and programs to educate themselves and eventually work and gain financial security through hard work is to be commended not discouraged.

This came about our discussion on tax cuts vs stimulus. It's really an apple and oranges comparison, because clearly stimulus worked to get us out of a pretty huge recession, and it's debatable whether tax cuts would've had just as profound an effect (don't forget Barry extended Bush's tax cuts when he came in, but the recession was still there). That doesn't mean tax cuts isn't a good tool with different economic conditions.

But, besides that, what I mentioned is that the top 1% and large corps had record profits both with stimulus or tax cuts. Thus the followup with the richer getting richer and the poor staying poor. I don't see a paradigm shift here where the economic growth lifts the poor more than the rich, or there's less of an income gap. I'm talking macro here, not individual (everybody got a story).

What you mention is some asshole, in this case a Dem (and this is no defense, but there's assholes of every color, shape and form), saying something stupid. I don't particularly think it's indicative of the left in general, much like I don't generalize right wingers with all being KKK members (much to boutons chagrin).

[baseline bum]

1060057306237288448

[pgardn]

why? those debts are historically never paid. Normally they're liquefied through inflation. The fact that the US has no debt in foreign denominated currency makes it impossible* to default on it.

* Unless Congress plays some dog and pony show.

Oh yeah.

Depression recessions and older people suffering longer. We can keep old people alive longer to live a more painful life. Irrational exuberance resting on a rotten core will be corrected at some point.

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH1:44 AM
In Arizona, it looks like the remaining vote is almost entirely from Maricopa, Pima and Apache counties. Those are three of the four most Democratic counties in the state. Given that Sinema is just 1 percentage point behind McSally in what’s currently reporting, I like her chances.

[Millennial_Messiah]

NATE SILVER1:39 AM
I’d be careful on Montana there. Our model is just looking at the overall vote count and not where the outstanding votes are from. The Upshot’s model thinks there’s a lot left from Missoula that will likely put Tester ahead.

Montana is like Florida, the western-most counties get counted last, but in this case that favors the Democrats. The left leaning counties in Montana are all near the Idaho border.

[ElNono]

exactly. but conservatives don't like inflation beyond a small nominal rate... they like to put a bunch of money in the bank and sit on it. stay away from the stocks. maybe invest in some real estate. but stay away from the stocks.

Nobody likes inflation beyond a small nominal rate. But, conservatives also want their medicare, social security, and tax cuts. so, let's stop pretending here that the dems love deficits and the GOP doesn't, tbh... that ship has sailed a long time ago.

They're both in love with the government credit card, but have different priorities on what to tighten when receipts become low.

[AaronY]

Tester and Sinema losing would be 55-45 lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nobody likes inflation beyond a small nominal rate. But, conservatives also want their medicare, social security, and tax cuts. so, let's stop pretending here that the dems love deficits and the GOP doesn't, tbh... that ship has sailed a long time ago.

They're both in love with the government credit card, but have different priorities on what to tighten when receipts become low.

Medicaid can go AND we can tighten a few extra things in the military, not in actual defense/weapons/personnel, but in VA benefits, discharged salaries and some extra fluff... they could stand to tighten up the budget there.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Tester and Sinema losing would be 55-45 lmao

Sinema will lose, Tester won't. The most liberal, hippie, minimalist, naturist, nudist, atheist counties in the state have yet to be counted.

[AaronY]

They cant overturn roe v Wade nationally but if they could that would be phenomenal for us tbh. Would end worse than prohibition and they would lose that cultural issue forever. People underestimate how much mcconnell leaving that seat open helped trump because of abortion

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fox is ignoring that W. Bush actually GAINED seats in both chambers... they talk Clinton, Obama, Reagan etc but they ignore how excellent Bush was in his first 2 years.