***** Official 2018 Election Night Thread *****

[Millennial_Messiah]

It won't be the 200+ pager the general election in 2016 was, but it should be good.


Start with this:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html


RCP has 53-47 GOP in the no-toss up map, but Zona, Missouri, Montana, Florida, and Indiana are going to be close.

[Chris]

Give me James in MI

DeSantis in FL

Ted will Cruz to victory in TX huge red wave here :tu

[hater]

CNN snowflakes already preparing their shitfaces for a potential colossal defeat :lol

Spineless pussies

Go Beto go Blue in House

Go red in Senate

[Millennial_Messiah]

Give me James in MI

DeSantis in FL

Ted will Cruz to victory in TX huge red wave here :tu

No, I think the communist Gillom wins FL. Sadly. Rick Scott may pull off a nailbiter, who knows.

[Trill Clinton]

heartbreaking

1059906779033694208

[Millennial_Messiah]

CNN snowflakes already preparing their shitfaces for a potential colossal defeat :lol

Spineless pussies

Go Beto go Blue in House

Go red in Senate
Beto won't win, I think the Democrats win by 10 or so in the House.

Dems have the advantage because

a) they're all up for re-election every 2 years, no matter what, unlike the Senate 6-year cycles
b) they've recently cracked down a lot of the gerrymandering which is skewed somewhat to the right a bit
c) history says the president's party loses 15% in the House in his first midterm year as president
d) the House is inherently skewed left due to representation being allocated by total population; let's not forget, the Democratic presidential candidate won the popular vote in 2016.

[hater]

https://twitter.com/CoreyinNYC/status/1059871915727376384?s=20

:lmao this fucking shithole country

Haiti has better election system :lol

[DMC]

https://pmcdeadline2.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/msnbc-florida-governors-race.jpg

MSNBC :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://pmcdeadline2.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/msnbc-florida-governors-race.jpg

MSNBC :lol
what's wrong with that? if that's true, huge win for Dems.

[DMC]

what's wrong with that? if that's true, huge win for Dems.

It's not true. They said it was a "test run" lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Gillum is a communist who wants a >40% state income tax in FL, so if Gillum just won, that means Nelson probably took his Senate race as well over Scott.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yeah, Brit Hume, but don't forget that the tax cuts also mean more employment and higher salaries... so yeah, the state income taxes are more painful due to lack of itemized deductions, BUT would you rather have a good job and pay more taxes/less deductions, or have a shitty job and pay less taxes/more deductions?

[hater]

https://twitter.com/beta2070/status/1059963105378254854?s=21

[hater]

Just have this on in the Background and do your regular Tuesday shit tbqh

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

[FrostKing]

Just voted

Red New Balances kinda day

[baseline bum]

Donnelly looks like he's out. GOP picks up a senate seat most likely.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Donnelly looks like he's out. GOP picks up a senate seat most likely.

Huh? 10% reporting. Likely mostly rural. Gary area, and to a lesser extent Indy area, will be sharply Dem.

Though Indiana was only supposed to be Trump +7 in the polls and ended up going Trump +20, so that wouldn't be a complete shocker.

[hater]

CNN smells another Demoretard obliteration

poor bastards

[hater]

:lmao wonder if Wolfina Blitzer will meltdown again

[Millennial_Messiah]

CNN smells another Demoretard obliteration

poor bastards
Are you watching Fox? They're currently saying the Democrats are in for a good night, because one of the close Kentucky seats is going Democrat, and the incumbent Republican has been in for 8 years.

[baseline bum]

Huh? 10% reporting. Likely mostly rural. Gary area, and to a lesser extent Indy area, will be sharply Dem.

Though Indiana was only supposed to be Trump +7 in the polls and ended up going Trump +20, so that wouldn't be a complete shocker.

GEOFFREY SKELLEY7:33 PM
Democrat Joe Donnelly seems to be running in between his 2012 Senate margins and Clinton’s 2016 margins. In little Knox County — which has almost entirely reported — Donnelly lost it by a touch less than 1 point in 2012, but Clinton lost it by 47. Donnelly currently trails Republican Mike Braun by 30 there. That may augur poorly for Donnelly, though only 10 percent of the vote is in statewide.

[hater]

Are you watching Fox? They're currently saying the Democrats are in for a good night, because one of the close Kentucky seats is going Democrat, and the incumbent Republican has been in for 8 years.

not surprised

One America News have been bitching Democrats are going to turn USA into 1984 Oceania :lmao

these retarded networks have no idea what the fuck is gonna happen and don't want to look stupid :lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

not surprised

One America News have been bitching Democrats are going to turn USA into 1984 Oceania :lmao

these retarded networks have no idea what the fuck is gonna happen and don't want to look stupid :lmao
Fox wants to look extra fair & balanced -- or possibly slightly left-leaning -- on a major national audience night, I understand that.

[FrostKing]

Fox wants to look extra fair & balanced -- or possibly slightly left-leaning -- on a major national audience night, I understand that.
That strategy scored points with my mother last election.

[Millennial_Messiah]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY7:33 PM
Democrat Joe Donnelly seems to be running in between his 2012 Senate margins and Clinton’s 2016 margins. In little Knox County — which has almost entirely reported — Donnelly lost it by a touch less than 1 point in 2012, but Clinton lost it by 47. Donnelly currently trails Republican Mike Braun by 30 there. That may augur poorly for Donnelly, though only 10 percent of the vote is in statewide.
Population about 38K. I don't see how that part of the state would decide the election as opposed to NW Indiana and Central Indiana, where the most peeplez are.

[baseline bum]

Are you watching Fox? They're currently saying the Democrats are in for a good night, because one of the close Kentucky seats is going Democrat, and the incumbent Republican has been in for 8 years.

McGrath had a viral campaign ad that propelled her to the national stage.

[baseline bum]

Population about 38K. I don't see how that part of the state would decide the election as opposed to NW Indiana and Central Indiana, where the most peeplez are.


GEOFFREY SKELLEY7:38 PM
It seems like Donnelly will need a lot of help from Indianapolis (Marion County) and Gary (Lake County) to win. That is, outrun his 34- and 41-point margins there, respectively, in 2012.


DAN HOPKINS7:40 PM
As we see returns coming in from Indiana in the marquee Senate race there, it’s worth remembering how Donnelly got to the Senate in the first place. The tea party-backed Richard Mourdock beat incumbent GOP Sen. Richard Lugar in the primary, setting up a Donnelly win by almost 6 percentage points in 2012.

[Millennial_Messiah]

That strategy scored points with my mother last election.

They're the most watched/highest rated network for a reason. Republicans love it for a lot of reasons, and Democrats don't love it so much but they watch the heck of it so they can get a ruse and figure out what to argue against. But it's solid business practice to be neutral on Election Night.

[Millennial_Messiah]

McGrath had a viral campaign ad that propelled her to the national stage.

Isn't Lexington got a couple big military stations? McGrath was a female pilot in the fuckin' Marines. Might score some normally red-voters.

[baseline bum]

1059968319535661057

[baseline bum]

1059969625100816385

[boutons_deux]

b) they've recently cracked down a lot of the gerrymandering :lol SCOTUS disagrees

which is skewed somewhat to the right a bit :lol

d) the House is inherently skewed left due to representation being allocated by total population; :lol Repug gerrymandering, massive voters suppression, House Dems have to win 5% more votes that Repugs just to break even.

[baseline bum]

1059970024386060288

[Millennial_Messiah]

1059968319535661057

Fox was projecting VA to be a gold mine for Dems due to Tim Kaine distancing himself from Hillary and the GOP guy being a weird ass and a birther.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Looks like Gillum is going to win. 51-47 with over half reporting.


FL will have state income taxes by 2020.

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY7:52 PM
Boone County, Indiana — in the suburbs of Indianapolis — is running about the same as it did in 2012 when Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly won the seat he’s defending tonight. That year, Boone went for Donnelly’s GOP opponent by 17 points, and so far with about 75 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Mike Braun leads Donnelly by 16. On the whole, Donnelly wants to run evenly with his 2012 performance, when he won by 6 points. This is a place where that’s happening, but in more rural areas, Donnelly is running behind his 2012 pace.

[baseline bum]

1059972290186829824

[baseline bum]

Donnelly down 15 points with 33% reporting. He's done.

[baseline bum]

CLARE MALONE7:54 PM
An interesting little tidbit from the preliminary exit polls out of Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for his seat: 53 percent said that Donnelly’s vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation was important in deciding their midterm vote.

[Millennial_Messiah]

1059972290186829824

Don't think he was ever in danger. He's in a red-leaning purplish state but he's been there since 2006 and he's very popular and moderate.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nelson looks to have defeated Scott, it's 72% reporting

[CitizenDwayne]

As a Kentuckian, I can tell you first-hand that ALL of Andy Barr’s approach comes down to “I’m a Trump guy”.

If he loses (which I’m still not sure of, there are a lot of dumb fucks around these parts), that’ll reflect very poorly on Trump’s role as leader of the Republican Party.

[Millennial_Messiah]

As a Kentuckian, I can tell you first-hand that ALL of Andy Barr’s approach comes down to “I’m a Trump guy”.

If he loses (which I’m still not sure of, there are a lot of dumb fucks around these parts), that’ll reflect very poorly on Trump’s role as leader of the Republican Party.

It works in a lot of those parts. But he's not a vet and the Democrat is a female marine.

[SnakeBoy]

1059969625100816385

Floridians want to monkey up their economy.

[baseline bum]

PERRY BACON JR.8:07 PM
Gillum ahead of DeSantis by 0.4 percent (49.6 to 49.2) with 82 percent of the votes in. This race is looking very close, like seemingly every one I can remember in Florida.

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:07 PM
In Florida, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is up about 5 points in Pinellas County with 83 percent of precincts reporting. Trump won Pinellas by 1 point in 2016, and it’s a key county in the Tampa Bay area. It cast 5 percent of the statewide vote two years ago. Hard not to see this as a good sign for Nelson.

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:09 PM
Like close races? Tonight could be your night. In the Kentucky 6th, McGrath now leads Barr 50-49 with 74 percent reporting.

[Millennial_Messiah]

PERRY BACON JR.8:07 PM
Gillum ahead of DeSantis by 0.4 percent (49.6 to 49.2) with 82 percent of the votes in. This race is looking very close, like seemingly every one I can remember in Florida.
We've seen this movie before... if it's mostly the Panhandle that's left, we know what that means... let's see

[Reck]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:07 PM
In Florida, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is up about 5 points in Pinellas County with 83 percent of precincts reporting. Trump won Pinellas by 1 point in 2016, and it’s a key county in the Tampa Bay area. It cast 5 percent of the statewide vote two years ago. Hard not to see this as a good sign for Nelson.

Odd. I would have thought Gillum would be carrying his carcass to the finish line. He's leading Scottie more comfortably than Gillum is his shitty oponent.

[baseline bum]

JANIE VELENCIA8:11 PM
Early exit polls (with caveats, of course) in Arizona don’t look so good for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who is running against Republican Martha McSally for the Senate seat. By a margin of 53 to 42 percent, Arizona voters say they’d like Republicans to control the Senate.

Trump, who won the state by 3.5 points in 2016, has a 52 percent approval rating and 47 percent disapproval rating.

[Millennial_Messiah]

FOX News is now saying the Dems now have a 46% to tie or take the Senate majority.

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:12 PM
The earliest returns in Texas have Democrat Beto O’Rourke up on Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Buuuut … safe to say it’s a little too soon to make any projections there.

[baseline bum]

FOX News is now saying the Dems now have a 46% to tie or take the Senate majority.

Fivethirtyeight has it at 3.4% to take the senate majority

[Millennial_Messiah]

JANIE VELENCIA8:11 PM
Early exit polls (with caveats, of course) in Arizona don’t look so good for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who is running against Republican Martha McSally for the Senate seat. By a margin of 53 to 42 percent, Arizona voters say they’d like Republicans to control the Senate.

Trump, who won the state by 3.5 points in 2016, has a 52 percent approval rating and 47 percent disapproval rating.

Who won the Zona Mccain seat?

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:13 PM
According to the New York Times, Republicans are leading in two Virginia congressional districts that we had rated as toss-ups. Republican Denver Riggleman leads Democrat Leslie Cockburn in the open 5th District, 56 percent to 44 percent (71 percent of counties reporting in that one). And Republican Rep. Dave Brat leads Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger 51-48 in the 7th District with 60 percent reporting.

[baseline bum]

Who won the Zona Mccain seat?

That's not up for election. McCain's replacement was appointed by the governor.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fivethirtyeight has it at 3.4% to take the senate majority

Fox is noticeably liberal on election nights. Except Karl Rove, that 2012 meltdown was funny AF.

[Reck]

Fivethirtyeight has it at 3.4% to take the senate majority

Forget the majority. The fools will be lucky to not lose multiple seats. lol Donnelly

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:15 PM
In Florida, ABC has projected that Republicans will hold on to three congressional districts that our forecast rated “likely Republican”: the open 6th District, Rep. Vern Buchanan’s 16th District and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart’s 25th District.

[baseline bum]

Now Desantis up on Gillum about 28,000 votes with 90% reporting

[baseline bum]

Looks like another bloodbath for the Democrats just like 2016

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:13 PM
According to the New York Times, Republicans are leading in two Virginia congressional districts that we had rated as toss-ups. Republican Denver Riggleman leads Democrat Leslie Cockburn in the open 5th District, 56 percent to 44 percent (71 percent of precincts reporting in that one). And Republican Rep. Dave Brat leads Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger 51-48 in the 7th District with 60 percent reporting.

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's not up for election. McCain's replacement was appointed by the governor.

I think the people should decide that, but whatever. I know putting two on the same year is undesirable, but it does make sense.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Looks like another bloodbath for the Democrats just like 2016
Huh? I don't think so at all... Dems still are on a good pace to win the House at minimum.

[CitizenDwayne]

Well fuck

[baseline bum]

Scott up 11,000 votes on Nelson with 90% reporting

[Millennial_Messiah]

Now Desantis up on Gillum about 28,000 votes with 90% reporting
Gillum is a socialist, he's done very well though... still think Nelson holds on, and like Fox said, there could be a split.

[baseline bum]

Fivethirtyeight has dropped their projection to 39.3% for the Democrats to take the house

[Millennial_Messiah]

How many votes left in Broward county? They tend to vote late

[baseline bum]

The Democrats chance for house control dropped from about 80% to about 40% in the last 5-10 minutes in 538's projection

[SnakeBoy]

538 giving GOP 60% chance of keeping the house :wow

[baseline bum]

538 giving GOP 60% chance of keeping the house :wow

Fuckheads had Democrats 95% to take the house about an hour ago

[Millennial_Messiah]

My real estate agent (white, middle age, millionaire) in Columbus probably flipped the Columbus suburbs and that house seat blue :wow

[SnakeBoy]

Fuckheads had Democrats 95% to take the house about an hour ago

Yeah I'm shocked tbh

They just updated, 100% chance someone will say called that shit on ST.

[Millennial_Messiah]

538 giving GOP 60% chance of keeping the house :wow

538 flip-flops faster than a pair of Walmart 99-cent sandals.

[CitizenDwayne]

This day is already a victory for Trump

[baseline bum]

Knew we were fucked when Pelosi started talking about how it wasn't whether the Democrats would win the house, but by how much. Fucking 2016 all over again.

[baseline bum]

Yeah I'm shocked tbh

They just updated, 100% chance someone will say called that shit on ST.

And now it's Democrats 54.5%

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:26 PM
In the Virginia 7th, it’s an incredibly tight race between Republican Rep. Dave Brat and Democrat Abigail Spanberger. The Virginia Department of Elections has Brat up by about 2 points, but almost all the outstanding vote is in Chesterfield County, a major suburban county outside of Richmond. That part of the county went for Democrat Ralph Northam by about 3 points in the 2017 gubernatorial race (which he won), so how it votes will be decisive.

[Millennial_Messiah]

And now it's Democrats 54.5%

will flip flop another 5-10 times


question is, is it an odd number or an even number

[CitizenDwayne]

Knew we were fucked when Pelosi started talking about how it wasn't whether the Democrats would win the house, but by how much. Fucking 2016 all over again.
She said she was “100%” sure Dems would take the House.

Seriously just fuck off and die already, ya old bag

[baseline bum]

Blue wave looks dead

[baseline bum]

Crooked ass Menendez keeps his senate seat

[CitizenDwayne]

The night is young

[baseline bum]

Beto 53, Beta 46 with 39% reporting

[Splits]

And now it's Democrats 54.5%





NATHANIEL RAKICH (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/)
8:27 PMYou may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

[baseline bum]

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON8:33 PM
Per preliminary exit polls: Young voters (18 to 29) are breaking for Democrats by a massive 37-point margin. This is vastly larger than the 21-point margin by which Hillary Clinton won them 2016 and even outpaces the 22-point margin Democrats won young voters by in the huge “blue wave” of the 2006 midterms.

[baseline bum]

Beto 53, Beta 46 with 46% reporting

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:36 PM
Stop me if you’ve heard this before — Florida is looking really really close. With 72 percent of precincts reporting, DeSantis leads Gillum 49.7 percent to 49.1 percent. In the Senate race, Rick Scott leads Bill Nelson 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent.

[baseline bum]

ANNA MARIA BARRY-JESTER8:37 PM
It’s looking like Florida could restore voting rights for most convicted felons, according to The New York Times. With 66 percent of precincts reporting, Amendment 4 has 64 percent of the vote.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Beto 53, Beta 46 with 46% reporting

perhaps they're all city/border, but that's unlikely to hold

I remember Hillary leading by a similar margin with about that much reporting in Texas in 2016

[baseline bum]

1059982719554215936

[baseline bum]

perhaps they're all city/border, but that's unlikely to hold

I remember Hillary leading by a similar margin with about that much reporting in Texas in 2016

Yeah I'd be absolutely floored to see Beto win

[johnsmith]

I’m hoping Beto wins so in a couple years I can prove my theory that it doesn’t fucking matter, we will all get fucked in the end and a few folks will get very rich.

[TSA]

Blue wave looks dead

Impossible. RandomGuy has put in so much work canvassing he doesn’t have time to post here anymore.

[FrostKing]

The night is young
Heading to the pub to watch #2 UK vs #4 DUKE

[hater]

I’m hoping Beto wins so in a couple years I can prove my theory that it doesn’t fucking matter, we will all get fucked in the end and a few folks will get very rich.

if nothing changed after Obomba hope and change and after Trump Make Saudi And Israeli Armies Great Again

it never will

folks just don't want to face it

[CitizenDwayne]

Heading to the pub to watch #2 UK vs #4 DUKE
You got it.

[baseline bum]

NBC calls the Indiana senate seat for Braun over Donnelly

[baseline bum]

PERRY BACON JR.8:43 PM
There are still votes left in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, which are very Democratic. But Gillum and Nelson are both down by about 1 percent, with more than 90 percent of the vote in. Gillum was consistently ahead of DeSantis in polls, while Nelson-Scott was expected to be very close. But the results right now suggest that Republicans may win both of those races.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yeah I'd be absolutely floored to see Beto win

I will say though, IF it does happen, the Dems will win the House by 30+.

[hater]

Senate already locked up and it's 8pm :lmao

Trump and Kavanaughty are probably on their 2nd keg :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

PERRY BACON JR.8:43 PM
There are still votes left in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, which are very Democratic. But Gillum and Nelson are both down by about 1 percent, with more than 90 percent of the vote in. Gillum was consistently ahead of DeSantis in polls, while Nelson-Scott was expected to be very close. But the results right now suggest that Republicans may win both of those races.
& by 2012 I was pretty sold that Florida would be a blue state for life because of the rapidly rising Hispanic population. Sort of like the next California.

[baseline bum]

Beto's lead is down to 51-48 with 50% reporting according to CBS

[Millennial_Messiah]

Senate already locked up and it's 8pm :lmao

Trump and Kavanaughty are probably on their 2nd keg :lol
Remember, Trump doesn't drink.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Beto's lead is down to 51-48 with 50% reporting according to CBS

No surprise. Hillary was winning by about 5 points with 50% reporting in 2016. Texas poll reporting tends to go cities-outward.

[baseline bum]

Republicans picking up another toss-up. I think they'll keep the house.

1059985661883752454

[CitizenDwayne]

This is all very disheartening

[hater]

Remember, Trump doesn't drink.

who said it was keg of beers? kegs of pussies

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:49 PM
Joe Donnelly’s loss in Indiana is a critical win for the GOP because it significantly narrows the path for Democrats in the Senate. What’s more, Donnelly’s loss might augur poorly for Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER8:52 PM
The House forecast ticked a little bit back up toward Democrats after that Shalala call. Still, it was fairly low-hanging fruit. The Democrats haven’t won a really tough race yet. The good news for them is that they haven’t lost too many toss-ups either, except the Kentucky 6th, which some networks have called.

[Mitch]

So much for that impeachment platform :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

ANNA MARIA BARRY-JESTER8:37 PM
It’s looking like Florida could restore voting rights for most convicted felons, according to The New York Times. With 66 percent of precincts reporting, Amendment 4 has 64 percent of the vote.
You think that'd be a win for Democrats?

[spurraider21]

538 now giving 54.8 chance for dems to take the house

i mean at some point it just seems like they're throwing shit at the wall

[Millennial_Messiah]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:49 PM
Joe Donnelly’s loss in Indiana is a critical win for the GOP because it significantly narrows the path for Democrats in the Senate. What’s more, Donnelly’s loss might augur poorly for Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.

Heitkamp was always going to lose. Part of that blue wave in 2006 in a Ruby-red state and then re-ran in an Obama re-election year. She's always been toast.


McCaskill was part of the same blue wave, but she's a moderate. So who knows.

[baseline bum]

PERRY BACON JR.8:59 PM
Ron DeSantis is up by 87,000 votes in the gubernatorial race, and Rick Scott is ahead by 64,000 in the Senate race with more than 95 percent of the vote in. The GOP could be notching huge wins in this state, solidifying their majority in the Senate and securing a big win by defeating Andrew Gillum in the race for the governor’s mansion. Florida is not called yet, but it’s looking hard for either Nelson or Gillum to win.

[spurraider21]

PERRY BACON JR. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/perry-bacon-jr/)
8:59 PMRon DeSantis is up by 87,000 votes in the gubernatorial race, and Rick Scott is ahead by 64,000 in the Senate race with more than 95 percent of the vote in. The GOP could be notching huge wins in this state, solidifying their majority in the Senate and securing a big win by defeating Andrew Gillum in the race for the governor’s mansion. Florida is not called yet, but it’s looking hard for either Nelson or Gillum to win.

[AaronY]

You think that'd be a win for Democrats?
It would be a win for morality tbh. Heck Im an atheist and one of the few things I respect about Christians is their willingness in a lot of cases to forgive and give second chances

[hater]

what u nigas watching?

Fox has Demonrats 81% of House and Repugnants 65% Senate

[NASpurs]

O'Rourke
49.9%

2,032,659


Cruz
49.4%

2,011,019

[baseline bum]

538 now giving 54.8 chance for dems to take the house

i mean at some point it just seems like they're throwing shit at the wall

Number went from 95 to 39 to 63 in less than an hour.

[spurraider21]

Number went from 95 to 39 to 63 in less than an hour.
yeah. its just silliness tbh...

[baseline bum]

O'Rourke
49.9%

2,032,659


Cruz
49.4%

2,011,019



Looks like Felito got this on lockdown

[Millennial_Messiah]

NATE SILVER8:52 PM
The House forecast ticked a little bit back up toward Democrats after that Shalala call. Still, it was fairly low-hanging fruit. The Democrats haven’t won a really tough race yet. The good news for them is that they haven’t lost too many toss-ups either, except the Kentucky 6th, which some networks have called.

Shalala was always supposed to win as per RCP forecast. Was "safe Dem"

[NASpurs]

Looks like Felito got this on lockdown

To be fair, Houston and El Paso votes aren't in yet.


:lol fuck



candidate
%
votes


O'Rourke
49.7%

2,041,000


Cruz
49.6%

2,037,010

[Millennial_Messiah]

It would be a win for morality tbh. Heck Im an atheist and one of the few things I respect about Christians is their willingness in a lot of cases to forgive and give second chances

I'm an atheist, but I don't really believe in foregiveness for violent crimes. For drugs, shoplifting and white collar felons, yes absolutely forgive.

[Millennial_Messiah]

To be fair, Houston and El Paso votes aren't in yet.


:lol fuck



candidate
%
votes


O'Rourke
49.7%
2,041,000


Cruz
49.6%
2,037,010



Houston metro is slightly less liberal than Dallas metro and SA.

[baseline bum]

Kemp destroying Abrams 61-38, didn't see what percentage reporting though

[NASpurs]

It just flipped. Fuck



candidate
%
votes


Cruz
49.8%

2,063,807


O'Rourke
49.5%

2,051,410

[Millennial_Messiah]

what u nigas watching?

Fox has Demonrats 81% of House and Repugnants 65% Senate

Realistically, it's not going to be possible for Republicans to hold the House considering the west coast and such are still left.

[spurraider21]

from what i saw nothing has come in from harris county

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's a LOT of Republican voters that just won the West Virginia senate seat for the Democrats.

[Millennial_Messiah]

from what i saw nothing has come in from harris county

63% left leaning county. Population about 5 million

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER9:13 PM
A world with even greater urban-rural polarization, which is roughly what we’re seeing in the results so far tonight, is a tough world electorally for Democrats given how rural areas have a disproportionate amount of influence in the Senate.

[spurraider21]

NATE SILVER9:13 PM
A world with even greater urban-rural polarization, which is roughly what we’re seeing in the results so far tonight, is a tough world electorally for Democrats given how rural areas have a disproportionate amount of influence in the Senate.
no shit. maher put it best. if the dakota territories get 4 senators, its bullshit that california just gets 2

[hater]

Realistically, it's not going to be possible for Republicans to hold the House considering the west coast and such are still left.

oh nice :tu

that's all I wanted TBQH

Trump holding both would have been the end of America.

:tu

we have hope

[DMC]

It's funny how amped up people get over mid terms as if any of it makes your life different. :lol

[spurraider21]

its just funny to me to see loons like gohmert get re-elected so easily

[DMC]

oh nice :tu

that's all I wanted TBQH

Trump holding both would have been the end of America.

:tu

we have hope
I'll go ahead and call it now.

I called this shit.

[spurraider21]

beto up by 950 votes lol... dead heat there. still showing only 58% reporting

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER9:16 PM
David Brat’s Virginia 7th has been a little bit of a roller coaster tonight as different parts of the district have reported. Right now, Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger is up by about 500 votes. There are going to be a lot of these very close races tonight.

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER9:20 PM
In the Mississippi special election, it looks like we’re very likely to have a runoff between Democrat Mike Espy and the Republican-appointed incumbent, Cindy Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith will be favored in that runoff: Democrats were hoping to have a chance to go up against Chris McDaniel instead, a tea party-style Republican.

[AaronY]

beto up by 950 votes lol... dead heat there. still showing only 58% reporting

Cruz losing would make up for so much lol

[ducks]

GOP's Marsha Blackburn withstands challenge from Bredesen to win Tennessee Senate race

[hater]

It's funny how amped up people get over mid terms as if any of it makes your life different. :lol

If Trumpnwins House and Senate your life will be different niga :lol

[spurraider21]

Cruz losing would make up for so much lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbTcHpPDCu8

[NASpurs]

Holy shit, Houston votes are in. Jumped Beto by 2% points.



candidate
%
votes


O'Rourke
50.8%

2,676,596


Cruz
48.5%

2,556,07




And only 800,000 votes have been counted so far in Houston.

[spurraider21]

cruz just pulled ahead tho. still basically a dead heat tho... both showing at 49.6%

edit: just saw the bump... beto up by a bit now

[AaronY]

Tbh looking like the darkie Gillum running probably energized the rural white trash here in florida to get out and vote. And there is a lot of them here in the non coastal areas

Oh wait Republicans are the ones that freed the slaves nvm

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH9:23 PM
The suburbs have come up huge for Democrats so far. First the Virginia 10th, and now the Colorado 6th, Rep. Mike Coffman’s district. With 65 percent reporting, Democrat Jason Crow leads 54 percent to 43 percent.

[Millennial_Messiah]

NATE SILVER9:13 PM
A world with even greater urban-rural polarization, which is roughly what we’re seeing in the results so far tonight, is a tough world electorally for Democrats given how rural areas have a disproportionate amount of influence in the Senate.

think of a world when the WH flips every 8 years, the House flips every now and then, and the Senate keeps a solid 60-40 ish GOP majority.


This could be a problem for the Dems going forward.

[spurraider21]

70% in, Beto up by about 2%

[baseline bum]

Beto up 2.1 points with 70% in. Maybe he only loses by 3?

[DMC]

If Trumpnwins House and Senate your life will be different niga :lol

How?

[Splits]

Beto up 2.1 points with 70% in. Maybe he only loses by 3?

That's because Harris just reported:



Harris 15.6% In



O'Rourke (D)
479,138
57%


Cruz (R)
356,454
42.4%

[Millennial_Messiah]

It's funny how amped up people get over mid terms as if any of it makes your life different. :lol

If you're gay, then the Senate majority in 2006-2014 was a huge deal because otherwise, no Sotomayor and no Kagan, and no gay marriage.

[baseline bum]

That's because Harris just reported:



Harris 15.6% In



O'Rourke (D)
479,138
57%


Cruz (R)
356,454
42.4%



Shit

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's because Harris just reported:



Harris 15.6% In



O'Rourke (D)
479,138
57%


Cruz (R)
356,454
42.4%




Any metro areas left or just towns?

[DMC]

If you're gay, then the Senate majority in 2006-2014 was a huge deal because otherwise, no Sotomayor and no Kagan, and no gay marriage.

I'm not Gay. If you're socialist, Bernie... just sayin'.

[spurraider21]

Shit
he had to do better in harris than that... needed to get closer to 65% tbh

[Millennial_Messiah]

How?

like I said, if you're gay, no gay marriage in 2015 even though the senate had just flipped by then

[Isitjustme?]

Wheres the link to the 538 live house thing?

[NASpurs]

Any metro areas left or just towns?

I don't think Corpus Christi (Nueces county) votes are in yet either.

[DMC]

like I said, if you're gay, no gay marriage in 2015 even though the senate had just flipped by then

How does that affect my life?

[Millennial_Messiah]

he had to do better in harris than that... needed to get closer to 65% tbh

Harris only had like 15% reporting as per that chart.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I don't think Corpus Christi (Nueces county) votes are in yet either.

but that one is like close to 50-50 historically in spite of the large Hispanic population.

[ducks]

Cruz will win Texas

[NASpurs]

Beto is up .4% now :lol



candidate
%
votes


O'Rourke
49.9%
2,729,594


Cruz
49.5%
2,705,385




Harris County still stuck at 16%

[SnakeBoy]

Fox just called the House for the Democrats

[Splits]

Any metro areas left or just towns?

Many metro areas reporting 0% (Bexar, Dallas) which means only early votes are reported. Harris had 0% and 0 votes before that update

https://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2018/texas/senate/

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm not Gay. If you're socialist, Bernie... just sayin'.

Bernie vs. Beto in 2020 for nomination?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fox just called the House for the Democrats
Bam.

[spurraider21]

Fox just called the House for the Democrats
huh?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Cruz will win Texas

I don't think that's in doubt.

[AaronY]

Gillum running behind Nelson

[Millennial_Messiah]

huh?

Too many votes out west. But it will be a slimmer advantage than expected.

[NASpurs]

Tarrant and Dallas counties are only reporting 6%.

[MultiTroll]

Who's the most bangable political anchor woman iyo?

[DMC]

Beto :lol

White men are the real terrorists... YAY Beto! Wait wtf? :lol

[SnakeBoy]

huh?

Did I stutter?

Congrats!

[DMC]

Who's the most bangable political anchor woman iyo?

Don Lemon

[benefactor]

Who's the most bangable political anchor woman iyo?
And right on cue, in rolls creepy stalker Fabbs

[spurraider21]

Did I stutter?

Congrats!
nah i mean, it's incredibly premature

[baseline bum]

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/842/755/493.jpg

[ducks]

Fox called democracts to take house

[hater]

LIVE BLOG: Fox News projects Democrats will capture House of Representatives

fox knows their shit

:tu

there is hope :cry

[SnakeBoy]

nah i mean, it's incredibly premature

Fox News is pretty cautious about making calls. It's done if they're calling it.

[NASpurs]

400 votes difference

candidate
%
votes


O'Rourke
49.7%
2,757,975


Cruz
49.7%
2,757,574

[SnakeBoy]

.

:nope

[NASpurs]

candidate
%
votes


Cruz
49.8%


2,773,741


O'Rourke
49.6%


2,764,830

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fox News is pretty cautious about making calls. It's done if they're calling it.
they called Ohio in 2012 before the other news network. And Karl Rove was livid :lol

[ducks]

Jake tapper this is not a blue wave

[ducks]

Cnn has not called it

[Millennial_Messiah]

Thinking Dems will win house by around 5-10 seats which is razor thin, if Trump wins re-election it'll almost definitely flip right back

[SnakeBoy]

they called Ohio in 2012 before the other news network. And Karl Rove was livid :lol

Yeah I remember him arguing it's not over with his white board :lol

[DMC]

Bernie vs. Beto in 2020 for nomination?

I doubt it. The worms haven't started coming out of the woodwork just yet for Beto. He'll need some time in the spotlight before some hag accuses him of sexual harassment.

[spurraider21]

Yeah I remember him arguing it's not over with his white board :lol
rove's 2012 meltdown was pretty good tbh

maddow's in '16 was great too

[Millennial_Messiah]

I doubt it. The worms haven't started coming out of the woodwork just yet for Beto. He'll need some time in the spotlight before some hag accuses him of sexual harassment.

I'd like to see it, tbh, even though Beto will likely lose tonight. Better dems than some of the other choices out there like Booker or Harris or Warren.

[ElNono]

wish the caravan would invade tonight, tbh... just to add to the drama...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Yeah I remember him arguing it's not over with his white board :lol

Cincinnati went super strong for Obama that year IIRC. But that was before the rural Pittsburgh/Cleveland suburb areas started turning red.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I think Beto or Bernie or Biden beat trump, everyone else loses

[baseline bum]

maddow's in '16 was great too

Damn wished I would have seen that shit. Was it like when John Oliver said the show was just her taking shots of Jack Daniels?

[spurraider21]

538 now giving dems 2/3 chance of winning house

[ducks]

538 now giving dems 2/3 chance of winning house

Lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Looks like a good night for both sides tonight. House will be razor thin for Dems,


while GOP will avoid the blue wave and gain a couple Senate seats.

[spurraider21]

Lol
70% now

[Fabbs]

Having a conversation about attractive women is always going to be with a small minority on SpursTalk.


I know...the wife took my Vulcan ears away from me when we got married. I'm still recovering tbh.


Don Lemon

[baseline bum]

wish the caravan would invade tonight, tbh... just to add to the drama...

Especially if they could have invaded Harris County before the polls close.

[spurraider21]

Damn wished I would have seen that shit. Was it like when John Oliver said the show was just her taking shots of Jack Daniels?
i never saw the whole thing, just clips posted. but she was just looking squarely at the camera and saying shit like "you're not dreaming. this is real." and shit like that

[Millennial_Messiah]

Especially if they could have invaded Harris County before the polls close.

Any county tbh. Flipped Beto

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER9:55 PM
The Kansas 3rd was just called for Democrats in the Kansas City suburbs. Davids had moved ahead in the polling, so not a huge surprise. But it’s a good pickup all the same, and Dems can breathe a bit easier in the House.

[baseline bum]

Any county tbh. Flipped Beto

Harris was the one whose polls stayed open latest tho

[spurraider21]

well, they're not fuckin around

1059998947790520320

[AaronY]

Having a conversation about attractive women is always going to be with a small minority on SpursTalk.
You really are a weirdo with that stuff honestly. I mean threads about south Korean women's Olympic cheerleading team for Christ's sake. I mean we're in the age of porn now you can just Google your favorite pornstar and watch them do ass to mouth in like 2 minutes

Thinking about some guy checking out some South Korean Olympic women's cheerleaders and their outfits reminds me of when I heard people jerking off too like Cosmo in the 70s or something. Just Google Dillion Harper porno rub one out and move on with your life

[ducks]

Democrats' path to a Senate majority is rapidly closing after Republicans took a Democratic-held seat in Indiana and easily fended off a Democratic challenge in Tennessee.

[hater]

Democrats' path to a Senate majority is rapidly closing after Republicans took a Democratic-held seat in Indiana and easily fended off a Democratic challenge in Tennessee.

closing? it was never open

[Chinook]

Lol Mittens.

[baseline bum]

Turd up 51-47 on Ortiz Jones

[AaronY]

Democrats' path to a Senate majority is rapidly closing after Republicans took a Democratic-held seat in Indiana and easily fended off a Democratic challenge in Tennessee.

Thx for the update!

[Mitch]

closing? it was never open

The only "blue wave" was getting a big majority in the house, Tbh. Well see if dems can pull off more than a few seat majority

[baseline bum]

ANNA MARIA BARRY-JESTER10:01 PM
Alabama looks like it will probably pass a state policy against abortion. With 31 percent of precincts reporting, 66 percent have voted yes on Amendment 2, which would make it state policy to ‘recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life.’

[baseline bum]

LMAO Kobach lost the governor's race in Kansas :rollin

[hater]

:cry so beautiful

there is hope

https://twitter.com/TIMEPolitics/status/1060004741042835457

[Millennial_Messiah]

Democrats' path to a Senate majority is rapidly closing after Republicans took a Democratic-held seat in Indiana and easily fended off a Democratic challenge in Tennessee.

2016 was the one that shocked me, that is a very pro-Democratic cycle that held barely GOP because of Trump.


2020 is a narrow GOP cycle, but the GOPs might have eclipsed their limit in this package in 2014. Who knows. This was the pro-GOP cycle everyone was waiting for and honestly the Dems dodged a bullet that, after the Rust Belt shifted so far to the right in 2016, that the Senate didn't go 60-40 with some big GOP rust belt pickups tonight. Nope. the Dems kept the rust belt in the senate which was a big thing.

[baseline bum]

Fuck Walker up 6 points in WI with 32% in

[AaronY]

That phaggot kobach lost

[baseline bum]

538 now giving dems 2/3 chance of winning house

Now 9 in 10

[Millennial_Messiah]

LMAO Kobach lost the governor's race in Kansas :rollin

Kansas has 5 electoral votes so maybe a Dem flip in the general election?

[hater]

ma niga Cortez wins :tu

https://twitter.com/UniNoticias/status/1060005409254195200

[spurraider21]

Romeny taking Hatch's seat in Utah

according to djohn hatch has secretly been acting president for some time. big promotion for romney tbh

[baseline bum]

:cry so beautiful

there is hope

https://twitter.com/TIMEPolitics/status/1060004741042835457

Rashida got some tig ol bitties

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fuck Walker up 6 points in WI with 32% in

Don't see how he loses

[benefactor]

Having a conversation about attractive women is always going to be with a small minority on SpursTalk.

:lol reaching for some kind of insult with one quote from one thread when you've been running around this site acting like a fucking weirdo for a decade

[Millennial_Messiah]

ma niga Cortez wins :tu

https://twitter.com/UniNoticias/status/1060005409254195200

in Queens, duh. she's a socialist.

[baseline bum]

Kansas has 5 electoral votes so maybe a Dem flip in the general election?

Nah Kobach is a horrible candidate trying to extend Brownback's disastrous rule

[baseline bum]

Heitkamp just got wrecked. GOP just officially won senate seat #50 so they control the senate.

[spurraider21]

PA 1 and 16 are both going down to the wire... Penn was one of the biggest sources of optimism for dems to win the house. they've already flipped 3 in Penn, 1 and 16 would 2 more flips

also dems just turned NY-11. that was a close one that i think repubs were expected to hang onto

[hater]

https://twitter.com/Maricaarmeenn/status/1060006375173095425

:lmao that pankake

[baseline bum]

NATE SILVER10:10 PM
ABC News has just called Texas for Ted Cruz, in a race that looks like it will wind up pretty close to the polls.

[spurraider21]

ABC just called Texas Senate race for Cruz

[ElNono]

PA 1 and 16 are both going down to the wire... Penn was one of the biggest sources of optimism for dems to win the house. they've already flipped 3 in Penn, and 16 would be yet another flip

also dems just turned NY-11. that was a close one that i think repubs were expected to hang onto

PA wins are important for the Dems going into 2020... would be interesting also to look at how the Rust belt voted...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Rashida got some tig ol bitties

Dearborn and Minny, no surprise.


Looks like Rashida Tlaib (not Talib!?!) is divorced, and doesn't wear hijab, so likely a Moderate/Liberal Muslim... not a religious jihadi type at all... wonder if she'd go with a white dude? She's pretty attractive, IMO.

[Splits]

Buh buy Beto

[Millennial_Messiah]

PA wins are important for the Dems going into 2020... would be interesting also to look at how the Rust belt voted...

Rust belt largely leaned left tonight. I don't think it will affect 2020 to the left much if at all in the general. Ohio, Michigan etc are trending right demographically. But good night there for Dems to prevent some super-majority in the GOP Senate.

[ducks]

Lol blue wave

[SnakeBoy]

ABC just called Texas Senate race for Cruz

https://media1.tenor.com/images/dcb063ebed9a75313498b678e9b42a75/tenor.gif?itemid=5454334

[benefactor]

Lol blue wave
Lol you are still mentally handicapped

[spurraider21]

NATHANIEL RAKICH (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/)
10:14 PMThe Oklahoma 5th District was a pretty deep sleeper pick as a Democratic takeover — our forecast (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/oklahoma/5/#deluxe) gave Republican Rep. Steve Russell a 14 in 15 chance. But Democrat Kendra Horn currently leads 51-49 with 79 percent reporting.

[ducks]

CNN's Van Jones: "This is heartbreaking"

[Millennial_Messiah]

NATHANIEL RAKICH (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/)
10:14 PMThe Oklahoma 5th District was a pretty deep sleeper pick as a Democratic takeover — our forecast (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/oklahoma/5/#deluxe) gave Republican Rep. Steve Russell a 14 in 15 chance. But Democrat Kendra Horn currently leads 51-49 with 79 percent reporting.

Includes almost all of OKC. Does NOT include the Norman college town area. But, lots of minorities have moved into OKC over the past decade.