Pick #14 - Strategies

[Vienna]

Demin was never a target of mine because of range and fit, but If you believe in his 3 point shot you take him in a heartbeat, that combination of size, passing and IQ coupled with shooting is very rare, he could be a star point forward in the making. With that said, if the shot doesn't come along he could e a liability on both ends, a 0-way kind of player. who hurts you. This is where you have to defer to teams judgement, we don't get to see them work out like they do. If he really has shooting upside, he's going to skyrocket and for good reason.

Demin seems to be a smart young man. he plays hard and I would assume he works hard in practise too. he will have to put on like 20lbs, but he is young, this should be possible.
but he is really a sub par athlete, so without significalty improved shooting all the great passing won't be enough to play him, because he will never be an even average defender or rebounder.
I wouldn't want to find out.

[Ariel]

Demin seems to be a smart young man. he plays hard and I would assume he works hard in practise too. he will have to put on like 20lbs, but he is young, this should be possible.
but he is really a sub par athlete, so without significalty improved shooting all the great passing won't be enough to play him, because he will never be an even average defender or rebounder.
I wouldn't want to find out.
I agree, hence why I stated "If you believe in his 3 point". If you don't, then yes, you absolutely pass. But neither of us is watching him in workouts, maybe he surprises teams by showing shooting upside and that changes the entire equation.

[drpill]

With so many ballhandlers on the team I have a hard time seeing the value of Demin... If you're not going to give him extended opportunities to create, you're really ignoring his one potentially elite trait. Size is nice and I like the player but taking him and trying to convert him into a 3&D wing or whatever doesn't seem like a good play.

[Ariel]

With so many ballhandlers on the team I have a hard time seeing the value of Demin... If you're not going to give him extended opportunities to create, you're really ignoring his one potentially elite trait. Size is nice and I like the player but taking him and trying to convert him into a 3&D wing or whatever doesn't seem like a good play.
If you think there's a clear value difference, then you draft him and figure it out later on, you can always trade him (or someone else) later on for value. Right now I'm not convinced either of such gap existing, which is why I said "if you believe...", but there's rumors of him performing well in shooting drills and I'm not at the Spurs workouts, so I wouldn't rule it out. Hell, if that's the case, he's probably going to be long gone by the time Spurs pick.

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm just going to comment on one thing. Just because it looks like Jeremy has ironed out his hitch, doesn't mean anything yet. We have to wait and see if he can hit the shots in-game. I hope he can, and if so, I'll be really happy, but yeah, gotta wait and see.

Also, did anyone watch Yabusele much? I just followed his stats and kept watch of him by boxscores, but I really want to know how he did on the defensive end? If he was no good on defense or couldn't hold his own, don't think I want him anymore. I'm also not sure what position he played most? Was it PF/C or PF/SF? I know he can score, but we need good defensive players and rebounders.

we don't need Yabusele. All we need is a starting PF and a back up C. Add 3 picks to that (Harper, Forward, Center) and we're good.


If you think there's a clear value difference, then you draft him and figure it out later on, you can always trade him (or someone else) later on for value. Right now I'm not convinced either of such gap existing, which is why I said "if you believe...", but there's rumors of him performing well in shooting drills and I'm not at the Spurs workouts, so I wouldn't rule it out. Hell, if that's the case, he's probably going to be long gone by the time Spurs pick.

I'd rather go with a safer pick at 14 instead of a project. Fleming would be a guy who can contribute from day 1.


Among other retreads, Larry Nance Jr, Guerschon Yabusele and Trey Lyles could also be had on the cheap rather than going for a choice like John Collins, who I dont think can be had easily without dealing FRPs.


here lies my problem. You want to trade a pick to the Nets for Cam Johnson, but not John Collins who's a better player and younger than Cam Johnson. I guess your move is initially a trade down scenario, but we could do the same thing with Utah to get Collins and swap #14 for #21.

[Ariel]

I'd rather go with a safer pick at 14 instead of a project. Fleming would be a guy who can contribute from day 1.
On paper I agree as well, in fact I don't have Demin at the top of my draft board either, just saying I wouldn't rule it out because there's information I'm missing which Spurs might not.
One thing I'll say though, Fleming is no guarantee either. He has a one year sample of shooting the ball well, no on ball skills whatsoever, and his defensive upside is predicated more on tools than tape. He needs work and might end up unplayable if his 3 pointer regresses to previous seasons. That is always a risk, one that I would also consider taking, but acknowledging what it is.

[rankingtear]

Should trade this pick for future once we pick Scoot 2.0. Our books are clean for 3 years more, we can still pay real players.

[LeBowen]

Should trade this pick for future once we pick Scoot 2.0. Our books are clean for 3 years more, we can still pay real players.

You're doing your best to win the worst spurstalk member of the year award, tbh.

[Ariel]

Should trade this pick for future once we pick Scoot 2.0. Our books are clean for 3 years more, we can still pay real players.
Harper is not Scoot 2.0, Scoot was full of red flags which lots of us around here were warning about: athleticism was way overhyped, finishing at the rim was poor, relied too much on jump shots, questionable shooter, inefficient. Harper looks a lot more skilled, gets to the rim at will and finishes with efficiency and craft, is way bigger, hell, he even shoots better. Scoot's hype came mainly from good performances in his first season at Ignite at just 17 years old, everyone projected based on that (myself included) but the following year red flags were clear but he had gained too much momentum for most media people to go against the grain and move him back.

[LeBowen]

Harper is not Scoot 2.0, Scoot was full of red flags which lots of us around here were warning about: athleticism was way overhyped, finishing at the rim was poor, relied too much on jump shots, questionable shooter, inefficient. Harper looks a lot more skilled, gets to the rim at will and finishes with efficiency and craft, is way bigger, hell, he even shoots better. Scoot's hype came mainly from good performances in his first season at Ignite at just 17 years old, everyone projected based on that (myself included) but the following year red flags were clear but inertia was too much for most media people to go against the grain and move him back.

Don't bother, he's a retard. Most of his posts are just bad bait attempts.

[Spursfanfromafar]

here lies my problem. You want to trade a pick to the Nets for Cam Johnson, but not John Collins who's a better player and younger than Cam Johnson. I guess your move is initially a trade down scenario, but we could do the same thing with Utah to get Collins and swap #14 for #21.

Two things. I believe CamJohnson to be the better player than John Collins. I could agree that Collins is a better fit for what the Spurs need but I also feel that Sochan is a much better defender than Collins on the perimeter and which is why I feel I wouldn't want to upgrade Sochan to Collins. A look at impact stats also show Collins as a player in decline while both Cam Johnson and Sochan are improving or performing their role at a higher level relative to the past.

Next, I suspect the Jazz will want to keep Collins or extend him this season as they have seen no or diminishing returns from tanking. I feel it's going to be the Markannen situation all over again with Ainge demanding too much ( I also suspect he won't trade Collins just to get 7 slots above their second pick). In contrast the Nets have less of a need to keep Cam Johnson and getting the 14th instead of the 27th is a no brainer for them.

[RC_Drunkford]

On paper I agree as well, in fact I don't have Demin at the top of my draft board either, just saying I wouldn't rule it out because there's information I'm missing which Spurs might not.
One thing I'll say though, Fleming is no guarantee either. He has a one year sample of shooting the ball well, no on ball skills whatsoever, and his defensive upside is predicated more on tools than tape. He needs work and might end up unplayable if his 3 pointer regresses to previous seasons. That is always a risk, one that I would also consider taking, but acknowledging what it is.

I been high on Demin 2 years ago tbh. He could be special if he can put it all together, it's just a huge if. Especially him being able to score in any type of way is a huge questionmark. Other than that a 3-and-D point forward archetype is always super valuable, but that depends on his jumper.

Fleming shot 39% from 3 on 159 shots, that's a fairly large sample size. It's not a big gamble to think his shot will translate, especially due to his size. He's also always been a player who averaged a good number of stocks and did well in the agility drills, so like I said, he's a safer bet. If he pans out he would be a huge piece in our roster construction.

[RC_Drunkford]

Two things. I believe CamJohnson to be the better player than John Collins. I could agree that Collins is a better fit for what the Spurs need but I also feel that Sochan is a much better defender than Collins on the perimeter and which is why I feel I wouldn't want to upgrade Sochan to Collins. A look at impact stats also show Collins as a player in decline while both Cam Johnson and Sochan are improving or performing their role at a higher level relative to the past.

Next, I suspect the Jazz will want to keep Collins or extend him this season as they have seen no or diminishing returns from tanking. I feel it's going to be the Markannen situation all over again with Ainge demanding too much ( I also suspect he won't trade Collins just to get 7 slots above their second pick). In contrast the Nets have less of a need to keep Cam Johnson and getting the 14th instead of the 27th is a no brainer for them.

John Collins is not declining, he actually got back to his former Atlanta self this season. Bringing up impact stats for a team that had the worst record in basketball is not an argument. They were tanking harder than any other team.

Second thing, you still don't seem to understand that Collins has a player option. This can not be a Lauri situation, because he actually does not want to stay there. Besides that the Jazz don't have a lot of cap space and need to tank again for the Boozer/Dybantsa draft, which means they will try to take on bad contracts for picks. You should know how that goes, we did that the last couple of years.

[CorrectCrusader]

if Carter Bryant is at 14 I'm jumping to the podium myself to announce the pick

[RC_Drunkford]

the more tape I watch on Fleming, the better he looks.

What I really like about him is how good he is at relocating. He sets good screens and then immediately pops out to the 3-point line to get open. Close outs don't really affect him, he just shoots over the defender. A lot of his 3s were contested.

He's also not that streaky. During 35 games he made at least 1 3-point shot in 28 of them, 2 or more 3s in 19 of those games. There are games where he misses 3 in a row and just keeps firing and knocking them down eventually.

He moves very fluidly and can attack closeouts. His handle is quite loose, but he only needs like 2 dribbles to get from the 3-point line to the rim. He misses some bunnies at times. I think he just needs to learn how to use his strong body better and bump defenders with his shoulder.

He's a good roll man and often seals his defender deep in the paint. His footwork in the post could use some work and his hook shot, while looking decent, rims out a bit too often. Again this is stuff you can easily improve with some attention to detail. He can also finish with both hands.

I think he would be a match up nightmare, because he can bully smaller defenders inside and draw bigs out to the perimeter. Running some offball action where he's the screener and then pops out to the 3-point line could be very effective with all the attention Victor demands.

He should also be a very efficient smallball 5. There were smaller line ups that couldn't guard him at all at the college level. Shooting off the dribble also needs some work, but again I buy his jumper.

And as I said he's a great cutter. So all those spoon fed oops Sochan gets from Wemby, you can give Fleming with the difference that he's actually a shooting threat. He'll always be a problem cutting from the wing to the rim, especially with his size and foot speed. How are you going to guard a perimeter player with a 7-5 wingspan?

[objective]

How are you going to guard a perimeter player with a 7-5 wingspan?

"The same way you guard Kevin Durant in the playoffs, with a fat Patty Mills. Mitch, take notes from El Jefe." - :pop:

[RC_Drunkford]

by the way:

Giannis: 6'11" wiith shoes, 243 lbs with a 7'3" wingspan and 9'6'' standing reach

Fleming: 6’8 ¼" barefoot, 232.4 lbs with a 7’5 ¼" wingspan and 9’1 ½" standing reach


not saying he's Giannis, but if you want someone with a similar physical profile and a 3-point shot, it won't get much closer.

[Dejounte]

Fluidity, fundamentals, read and react ability, instincts and feel… to me, a 6 foot player who mirrors Giannis in these categories is closer to Giannis overall than a guy who matches Giannis with his size. Not saying Fleming doesn’t have any of these, but I’m reminded of many players (mostly centers obviously) now and past who had 1% of Giannis’ talent and didn’t do anything special.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

the more tape I watch on Fleming, the better he looks.

What I really like about him is how good he is at relocating. He sets good screens and then immediately pops out to the 3-point line to get open. Close outs don't really affect him, he just shoots over the defender. A lot of his 3s were contested.

He's also not that streaky. During 35 games he made at least 1 3-point shot in 28 of them, 2 or more 3s in 19 of those games. There are games where he misses 3 in a row and just keeps firing and knocking them down eventually.

He moves very fluidly and can attack closeouts. His handle is quite loose, but he only needs like 2 dribbles to get from the 3-point line to the rim. He misses some bunnies at times. I think he just needs to learn how to use his strong body better and bump defenders with his shoulder.

He's a good roll man and often seals his defender deep in the paint. His footwork in the post could use some work and his hook shot, while looking decent, rims out a bit too often. Again this is stuff you can easily improve with some attention to detail. He can also finish with both hands.

I think he would be a match up nightmare, because he can bully smaller defenders inside and draw bigs out to the perimeter. Running some offball action where he's the screener and then pops out to the 3-point line could be very effective with all the attention Victor demands.

He should also be a very efficient smallball 5. There were smaller line ups that couldn't guard him at all at the college level. Shooting off the dribble also needs some work, but again I buy his jumper.

And as I said he's a great cutter. So all those spoon fed oops Sochan gets from Wemby, you can give Fleming with the difference that he's actually a shooting threat. He'll always be a problem cutting from the wing to the rim, especially with his size and foot speed. How are you going to guard a perimeter player with a 7-5 wingspan?

Yes! Fleming is a must pick!

He fits our need perfectly.

[Vienna]

The Fleming thing is getting out of control again. waiting till the suggestion to draft him at #2, because he is the Giannis clone.

as some mentioned, at some point you think about drafting him. that point wasn‘t #8 and it‘s not #14, it might be in the mid 20s, if you have a pick there.

older, low competition, failed big time whenever it counted, average athlete. (that‘s one of the problems, when you only play low quality competition, even an average athlete looks like a superior athlete, when his opponents are all 3rd class athletes). but yes, he seems to be a humble and good character young man and likely will be a hard worker. But so are some others in this class.

[Dejounte]

I’m sticking with my comp of something between Eason, Peyton Watson, Achiuwa for Rasheer, which might be fine for what’s needed between Castle and Wemby. I kind of feel he doesn’t have the personality makeup that the Spurs are looking for at this moment though.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I’m sticking with my comp of something between Eason, Peyton Watson, Achiuwa for Rasheer, which might be fine for what’s needed between Castle and Wemby. I kind of feel he doesn’t have the personality makeup that the Spurs are looking for at this moment though.

What personality issue do you see with Fleming?

[Manu&Duncan fan]

The Fleming thing is getting out of control again. waiting till the suggestion to draft him at #2, because he is the Giannis clone.

as some mentioned, at some point you think about drafting him. that point wasn‘t #8 and it‘s not #14, it might be in the mid 20s, if you have a pick there.

older, low competition, failed big time whenever it counted, average athlete. (that‘s one of the problems, when you only play low quality competition, even an average athlete looks like a superior athlete, when his opponents are all 3rd class athletes). but yes, he seems to be a humble and good character young man and likely will be a hard worker. But so are some others in this class.

Did you see his combine results?

2.72 seconds in lane agility - #2 in the entire class.
Runs the court faster than Cooper Flagg.

[Dejounte]

What personality issue do you see with Fleming?

It’s not a personality “issue” per say… but I don’t think it’s the right type of personality for the current core right now. He’s stoic, and maybe too introverted, which might have been ok if we didn’t have a star or potential star on the team. Stoicism normally leads to hard work, which is great if you want to tap into their full potential. But we’re not really looking for that type… we’re looking for a supporting cast… a team guy who can be vocal when it matters, and be supportive to the leaders of the team.

[Vienna]

Did you see his combine results?

2.72 seconds in lane agility - #2 in the entire class.
Runs the court faster than Cooper Flagg.

you might want to check what is what. You are talking about the shuttle run and believe me, noone ever used that number as the one evidence for the overall athletic abilities of a player. Fleming tested pretty average overall and his vertical was very disappointing.

[Guru of Nothing]

I've taken a liking to Sorber at 14 and can't shake it. I'd really like to get Kornet in Spurs uniform too, but I don't think they can do both, and I have concerns over what Kornet might cost. If Hartenstein is worth 3yr/$87M...

[Manu&Duncan fan]

It’s not a personality “issue” per say… but I don’t think it’s the right type of personality for the current core right now. He’s stoic, and maybe too introverted, which might have been ok if we didn’t have a star or potential star on the team. Stoicism normally leads to hard work, which is great if you want to tap into their full potential. But we’re not really looking for that type… we’re looking for a supporting cast… a team guy who can be vocal when it matters, and be supportive to the leaders of the team.

I see what you mean. Yes he appears to be kawhi-like (or Duncan-like) stoic. But seems to me he is really down-to-earth, easy-going, not afraid of the spotlight even though preferring to staying away from the spotlight. More like Duncan than Kawhi. He will be a good teammate.

But he speaks broken and boring sentences, like Kawhi. But that makes me like him more. Because that type of personality tends to focus purely on one specialty and do well, which happens to be basketball.

[RC_Drunkford]

The Fleming thing is getting out of control again. waiting till the suggestion to draft him at #2, because he is the Giannis clone.

as some mentioned, at some point you think about drafting him. that point wasn‘t #8 and it‘s not #14, it might be in the mid 20s, if you have a pick there.

older, low competition, failed big time whenever it counted, average athlete. (that‘s one of the problems, when you only play low quality competition, even an average athlete looks like a superior athlete, when his opponents are all 3rd class athletes). but yes, he seems to be a humble and good character young man and likely will be a hard worker. But so are some others in this class.

I never said he was Giannis, I was comparing measurements and body type


you might want to check what is what. You are talking about the shuttle run and believe me, noone ever used that number as the one evidence for the overall athletic abilities of a player. Fleming tested pretty average overall and his vertical was very disappointing.

Fleming: Max Vertical Leap 32.5 - Standing Vertical 27.5

Kawhi Leonard 32 - 25.5

You don't seem to understand that bigs and forwards don't need to have the same type of hops as guards. Try again....


I’m sticking with my comp of something between Eason, Peyton Watson, Achiuwa for Rasheer, which might be fine for what’s needed between Castle and Wemby. I kind of feel he doesn’t have the personality makeup that the Spurs are looking for at this moment though.

Spurs liked players with that type of demeanor before

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I've taken a liking to Sorber at 14 and can't shake it. I'd really like to get Kornet in Spurs uniform too, but I don't think they can do both, and I have concerns over what Kornet might cost. If Hartenstein is worth 3yr/$87M...

Sorber will be available at #14. But I don't think Spurs will pick him for the following reasons:

1. Foot injury is a real concern. It will recover completely. But it also means his foot may be too weak to carry his weight. That's a big No for a big guy.

2. He is too slow to run fastbreak. I believe Spurs will like to run because we have 3 fast point guards and one fast center.

3. He cannot shoot 3s (yet). Will clog the lane.

4. He cannot defend the perimeter.

[Ice009]

Sorber will be available at #14. But I don't think Spurs will pick him for the following reasons:

1. Foot injury is a real concern. It will recover completely. But it also means his foot may be too weak to carry his weight. That's a big No for a big guy.

2. He is too slow to run fastbreak. I believe Spurs will like to run because we have 3 fast point guards and one fast center.

3. He cannot shoot 3s (yet). Will clog the lane.

4. He cannot defend the perimeter.

Sorber doesn't sound too good at all. Why are people here wanting to draft him. On the flipside, what are his strengths? I assume rebounding is one?

[Guru of Nothing]

Yes, on the other hand, Sorber sucks at the guard position.

[Vienna]

I never said he was Giannis, I was comparing measurements and body type

……….


Fleming: Max Vertical Leap 32.5 - Standing Vertical 27.5

Kawhi Leonard 32 - 25.5

You don't seem to understand that bigs and forwards don't need to have the same type of hops as guards. Try again....



who do you come up next? LeBron?

this remis me a lot about Tyler Bey in 2020. some people were talking him into 1st round (I remember, I thought that way), but some even into lottery. Wingspan, Shooting, Defense were the selling points. Sounds familiar?

[Russ]

Sorber doesn't sound too good at all. Why are people here wanting to draft him. On the flipside, what are his strengths? I assume rebounding is one?

Sorber has great footwork around the basket. He's a big who can (and will) score inside.

I don't think he's anywhere near as slow as some do. He's just efficient and doesn't show a lot of wasted motion.

[RC_Drunkford]

Sorber doesn't sound too good at all. Why are people here wanting to draft him. On the flipside, what are his strengths? I assume rebounding is one?

most complete Center in the entire draft. Only thing he's missing is a jumpshot.


who do you come up next? LeBron?

this remis me a lot about Tyler Bey in 2020. some people were talking him into 1st round (I remember, I thought that way), but some even into lottery. Wingspan, Shooting, Defense were the selling points. Sounds familiar?

so is nephew unathletic? why are you bringing up something completely different? I'm sure you were high on Tyler Bey, since he was so super athletic :lol

Kinda funny that you fell for a player with a 43" vertical who shot 13/31 from 3, but think it's the same case as a player who shot 62/159 and has a comparable vertical to Kawhi Leonard and Chris Bosh

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Mr. Vienna, another comparison of Fleming is Kenyon Martin.

Remember the outlet pass from Jason Kidd to Kenyon Martin?

Castle/Harper are both good rebounders and passers. They can have similar connections with our bigs if we draft fast bigs like Fleming and Raynound.

Both Fleming and Raynound can run to the rim and dunk or stop at the 3 point line and pop.

If one of our guys is one step too slow, some good opportunities will be lost.

That's why fit is so important for the current Spurs. I don't see Spurs draft guys like Queen or Sorber, no matter how many other good qualities they have.

[rascal]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

[The Truth #6]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

Definitely likely. But Coward or Bryant (if available) seem very on brand for Wright. too.

[dn0774]

The Sorber tape is intriguing, interesting weapon on offense. He looks like he would get abused defensively, feet look slow, imagine he would be hunted on switches relentlessly. Not where I would want to go with 14.

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

I would hate to draft someone who's ceiling is bench player at 14

[Vienna]

Spurs will draft McNeeley with the 14th pick.

would be my #3 choice for the pick, but I would also be happy, if they picked him. He will be good in the role he would get. His C&S split was far better, than off the dribble, he will be a far better shooter in that role, than at UConn. Does enough things well. Yes, he won‘t become a star. Quality role player, but that‘s what you want at 14.

[stnick2261]

I'd rather have a high floor than a high ceiling at #14 this year. We have our stars. We need a higher percentage of hitting a solid role player.

[scott]

I would hate to draft someone who's ceiling is bench player at 14

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/images/nba-draft-pick-value-research/saurabh-rane-draft-pick-vorp-box-plot.jpeg

[Dejounte]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/images/nba-draft-pick-value-research/saurabh-rane-draft-pick-vorp-box-plot.jpeg
Seems the best move is to trade our 14th pick plus whatever to get two picks in the 15-22 range.

[Seventyniner]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

Nice chart, and the data shows that you're right. I wonder if a chart that includes up to 2024 changes anything?

[jesterbobman]

If pulling a T-Wolves is on the table, I think the Warriors are intriguing. Last days of the Steph dynasty, limited avenues to improve, could try and get something like the 2028 pick and a 2029 swap (both unprotected) for #14. Could try a similar deal with the Lakers - they're less interesting to me as the upside seems more limited with them having a chance to rebuild around Luka, but same idea.

[Ariel]

Seems the best move is to trade our 14th pick plus whatever to get two picks in the 15-22 range.
Brooklyn: 19, 26, 27
OKC: 15, 24
Orlando: 16, 25
14 for 19 + 27, or 14 + 38 + future 2nd for either 15 + 24 or 16 + 25, don't seem too far fetched.

[mudyez]

Brooklyn: 19, 26, 27
OKC: 15, 24
Orlando: 16, 25
14 for 19 + 27, or 14 + 38 + future 2nd for either 15 + 24 or 16 + 25, don't seem too far fetched.

Especially if Maxime is their actual target.

[scott]

Nice chart, and the data shows that you're right. I wonder if a chart that includes up to 2024 changes anything?

I wish this study was updated, but we can take a look at the general range (which I'll call 11-15) since then.

2013:

#11 - Michael Carter Williams - This one is tough. Won ROY. Averaged double digits to start his career. Then faded but stuck around the league. Rotation player?
#12 - Steven Adams - Solid starter.
#13 - Kelly Olynyk - Solid rotation player.
#14 - Shabazz Muhammed - Fringe bust?
#15 - Giannis - All Pro.

2014:

#11 - Doug McDermott - Rotation player.
#12 - Dario Saric - Rotation player.
#13 - Zach Lavine - Solid starter.
#14 - TJ Warren - Rotation player who was a solid starter for a good 3-4 year stretch (when healthy)
#15 - Adreian Payne - Bust.

2015:

#11 - Myles Turner - Solid starter.
#12 - Trey Lyles - Fringe rotation player.
#13 - Devin Booker - All Pro.
#14 - Cam Payne - Fringe rotation player.
#15 - Kelly Oubre - Rotation player.

2016:

#11 - Domantas Sabonis - Fringe All Star
#12 - Taurean Prince - Rotation player
#13 - Georgion Papagiannis - Bust.
#14 - Denzel Valentine - Bust
#15 - Juancho Hernangomez. Replacement level (Spurs legend though)

2017:

#11 - Malik Monk - Should be a solid starter. Perennial 6MOY candidate.
#12 - Luke Kennard - Rotation Player
#13 - Donovan Mitchell - All Pro
#14 - Bam Adebayo - All Pro
#15 - Justin Jackson - Replacement level

2018:

#11 - SGA - All pro
#12 - Miles Bridges - Human trash can, but a solid starter.
#13 - Jerome Robinson - Bust
#14 - MPJ - Solid Starter, just broken and overpaid
#15 - Troy Brown Jr - Fringe rotation player

2019:

#11 - Cam Johnson - Solid starter
#12 - PJ Washington - Solid role player/fringe starter
#13 - Tyler Herro - Solid starter/fringe all star
#14 - Romeo Langford - Replacement player. Another Spurs legend.
#15 - Sekou Doumbouya - Bust

2020:

#11 - Devin Vassell - Solid role player/fringe starter
#12 - Tyrese Haliburton - Solid starter/fringe all star/playoff clutch wizard/overrated per his peers
#13 - Kira Lewis Jr - Bust
#14 - Aaron Nesmith - Solid role player/fringe starter/balls of steel/guy I wanted
#15 - Cole Anthony - rotation player

2021:

#11 - James Bouknight - Bust
#12 - Josh Primo - LOL
#13 - Chris Duarte - Replacement player after a fast start
#14 - Moses Moody - Rotation player
#15 - Corey Kispert - Rotation Player

I think it's still too early to go beyond this.

So out of the 45 players taken from 2013 - 2021, I count (if I am counting correctly):

17 Fringe Starter or better (37.8%)

So... less than a 40% chance of doing better than a rotation player, with plenty of bust opportunity. Certainly I don't think a team should set their sights on a "just a rotation player" - but if you end up with a rotation/role player out of this range... you did about as well as expected.

[RC_Drunkford]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/images/nba-draft-pick-value-research/saurabh-rane-draft-pick-vorp-box-plot.jpeg

sure, but I think that's his ceiling. There are other guys who's ceiling is starting caliber and I'm fine with them becoming serviceable bench players, but at least roll the dice on it.

[Limguogolo]

I summarize your tremendous work: at pick 14 in a draft unanimously considered strong, you are looking for the best player available, a potential starter or a solid rotation player on a strong team. A 3 or 4 would be ideal.

I'm biased, but that would fit with Noah Penda. This may still seem high, but unlike the others he has the advantage of playing in the play-off. On Wednesday, his team plays against the Euroleague finalist (which is played today). Penda is a versatile player like Batum-Diaw. Pass first, great defender, smart, good at 3s, not the rebounder you expect.

[RC_Drunkford]

I summarize your tremendous work: at pick 14 in a draft unanimously considered strong, you are looking for the best player available, a potential starter or a solid rotation player on a strong team. A 3 or 4 would be ideal.

I'm biased, but that would fit with Noah Penda. This may still seem high, but unlike the others he has the advantage of playing in the play-off. On Wednesday, his team plays against the Euroleague finalist (which is played today). Penda is a versatile player like Batum-Diaw. Pass first, great defender, smart, good at 3s, not the rebounder you expect.

I wouldn't say shooting 30% from 3 in Europe (where the 3-point line is closer to the basket) and 69% from the freethrow line "good" tbh.

[rascal]

sure, but I think that's his ceiling. There are other guys who's ceiling is starting caliber and I'm fine with them becoming serviceable bench players, but at least roll the dice on it.

McNeeley's ceiling can be a starter for the Spurs. His ceiling is higher than Spurstalk favorite Kon Kneuppel.

[Ice009]

Darn, I didn't know Donovan Mitchell and Bam were both selected that low. I thought they were both picked inside the top 10. It seems you can definitely get a really good/great player in that range if you pick right. Getting a role player/fringe starter would also be good. It'd suck to draft a bust in that range, though.

Spurs should try and trade down if they have a low floor/high ceiling guy picked by another team and then just go for their high floor guy at a later pick rather than use the 14th on a high floor guy. I hope they can use it on a high ceiling guy. Having said that, glad I don't have to make the call/pick. I'd be nervous to draft a guy like Maxime there, but you also never know, he could end up being a really good player.

[couchman]

Didn’t we have a post last year dispelling most notions of what floor and ceiling actually are?
Those concepts are real, but the human ability to judge them sucks badly.

I can’t believe people look at the chart and want to trade DOWN!?
If anything, trade UP and increase your chances of getting a useful player.
We aren’t carrying 3 rookies and pretty soon our only job will be to develop the core we have and put budget friendly structure around that.

[Limguogolo]

OK, I should have said "good enough" and I conveniently forgot to mention his weakness in ft. But I had to justify the fact of saying that I was biased. Over five PO games, he is at 60% I think. He proved in the young French team that he was clutch, that's "good enough" for me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aWtpKpWzAZA

[RiverwalkParade]

Would it be crazy to trade 14 and 38 to CHA for 2 seconds this year and a future first? Take guys without guaranteed contracts or stash them and see what happens.

[exstatic]

Would it be crazy to trade 14 and 38 to CHA for 2 seconds this year and a future first? Take guys without guaranteed contracts or stash them and see what happens.

Why does Charlotte do that? And why would the Spurs? They’ve already fucked us on one pick.

[RC_Drunkford]

McNeeley's ceiling can be a starter for the Spurs. His ceiling is higher than Spurstalk favorite Kon Kneuppel.

I don't see it. Mediocre defender and good shooter. I'd say he could become Joe Harris, but not more than that. The Hayward comparisons don't match at all.

[Ariel]

Would it be crazy to trade 14 and 38 to CHA for 2 seconds this year and a future first? Take guys without guaranteed contracts or stash them and see what happens.

Why does Charlotte do that? And why would the Spurs? They’ve already fucked us on one pick.
Depends on how the draft unfolds. Say come 14 Spurs pick a player they like but don't looove (say, Cedric Coward). Lets also assume that, while on the clock for 33, Charlotte makes you the offer you mention, where Kalkbrenner, Drake Powell and Proctor are still on the board. In this case, I'd definitely entertain that possibility, provided that pick is guaranteed to convey, Miami style (one year lottery protected, the following unprotected). I don't think there's that huge of a drop between that caliber of players, and you can add a valuable extra asset, either to pick or use in future trades. Doesn't sound likely, but not impossible either.

[exstatic]

Depends on how the draft unfolds. Say come 14 Spurs pick a player they like but don't looove (say, Cedric Coward). Lets also assume that, while on the clock for 33, Charlotte makes you the offer you mention, where Kalkbrenner, Drake Powell and Proctor are still on the board. In this case, I'd definitely entertain that possibility, provided that pick is guaranteed to convey, Miami style (one year lottery protected, the following unprotected). I don't think there's that huge of a drop between that caliber of players, and you can add a valuable extra asset, either to pick or use in future trades. Doesn't sound likely, but not impossible either.

How does that even work? By the time they’re on the clock for 33, we will have picked someone at 14 the day before. Are you hoping that we pick someone that they like? Because that’s pretty fucking thin.

[Ariel]

How does that even work? By the time they’re on the clock for 33, we will have picked someone at 14 the day before. Are you hoping that we pick someone that they like? Because that’s pretty fucking thin.
I'm laying down a scenario where something like that could happen, yes, this is if they like a player already picked, doesn't mean you need to get the call that same day, you could tell them to hold off until you see what's there. For instance, Spurs and Indiana had been talking about a framework revolving around George Hill for 15, but Spurs didn't pull the trigger until Indiana was on the clock and Kawhi was there. Something like that.

You could also entertain the idea of just trading the pick to Charlotte and have them use it on someone else, it doesn't require that they be interested in the same player you would have picked anyway, but if that's the case you should definitely make sure the future first round pick is worth it.

[scott]

Would it be crazy to trade 14 and 38 to CHA for 2 seconds this year and a future first? Take guys without guaranteed contracts or stash them and see what happens.

So long as the future first is unprotected (or lightly protected to a level of comfort), this would seem about on par with last year’s MIN trade for #8 in terms of value. Swaps have been shown to have roughly the value of a premium SRP.

[Mr. Body]

Man, last year was so fun as a draft process, discussions of Risacher and even Sarr, Dillingham, trying to get Reed Sheppard from Houston, hopes that no one before us took Castle, what to do with the #8 pick. If Cody Williams or Matas were going to be any good.

This year is so boring already, lol. We're overjoyed to get Dylan Harper. The #14 pick is a sort of interesting bit of gravy on top, but no one really thinks it's amounting to much beyond a role-player with potential upside. I'm more interested in seeing where some of these other candidates go from 3-12 or so.

Let's get to the draft already!

[mo7888]

Man, last year was so fun as a draft process, discussions of Risacher and even Sarr, Dillingham, trying to get Reed Sheppard from Houston, hopes that no one before us took Castle, what to do with the #8 pick. If Cody Williams or Matas were going to be any good.

This year is so boring already, lol. We're overjoyed to get Dylan Harper. The #14 pick is a sort of interesting bit of gravy on top, but no one really thinks it's amounting to much beyond a role-player with potential upside. I'm more interested in seeing where some of these other candidates go from 3-12 or so.

Let's get to the draft already!

A lot of truth there...

[rascal]

Didn’t we have a post last year dispelling most notions of what floor and ceiling actually are?
Those concepts are real, but the human ability to judge them sucks badly.

I can’t believe people look at the chart and want to trade DOWN!?
If anything, trade UP and increase your chances of getting a useful player.
We aren’t carrying 3 rookies and pretty soon our only job will be to develop the core we have and put budget friendly structure around that.

This
You don't trade out of a lottery pick for a player or two with lower odds of becoming a useful player.

[Ariel]

Didn’t we have a post last year dispelling most notions of what floor and ceiling actually are?
Those concepts are real, but the human ability to judge them sucks badly.

I can’t believe people look at the chart and want to trade DOWN!?
If anything, trade UP and increase your chances of getting a useful player.
We aren’t carrying 3 rookies and pretty soon our only job will be to develop the core we have and put budget friendly structure around that.
Sorry, but without specifics this is empty words.


Which player are we trading up for, and at what cost?
Which player are we comfortable staying at 14 for?
Which players are we willing to move down for, and what's the return?

If you have two players on your board you feel equally comfortable taking at 14 and you can take one of them by trading down and pick up an asset in the process, why pass up on the opportunity to do so?
It's not like the same player magically changes his potential because he was picked a few spots higher or lower.

To be clear, I'm willing to entertain any scenario, it just depends on the circumstances. If you can move up and pick up Knueppel for not much, do so. If Carter Bryant is available at 14, pick him up. If you're struggling to find anyone who stands out at 14 and you can trade down, why not consider that as well?

[scott]

Sorry, but without specifics this is empty words.


Which player are we trading up for, and at what cost?
Which player are we comfortable staying at 14 for?
Which players are we willing to move down for, and what's the return?

If you have two players on your board you feel equally comfortable taking at 14 and you can take one of them by trading down and pick up an asset in the process, why pass up on the opportunity to do so?
It's not like the same player magically changes his potential because he was picked a few spots higher or lower.

To be clear, I'm willing to entertain any scenario, it just depends on the circumstances. If you can move up and pick up Knueppel for not much, do so. If Carter Bryant is available at 14, pick him up. If you're struggling to find anyone who stands out at 14 and you can trade down, why not consider that as well?

I agree that all the circumstances matter when evaluating an actual move up/down scenario, but I think couchman's point is that if you look at the chart I posted and feel like the move is to trade down simply based on that chart... then it draws into question what the objective is. The common range (which just at an eyeball's glance looks like +1 standard deviation upward from the mean, with a lower bound of zero) for the 11-14 range is the same as the 15-22 range, but the median expectation is about 50% lower, the ceiling appears to be lower, and there appears to be a larger frequency of busts. This of course is what we would expect from higher picks... so why would someone look at this chart and say "we should trade down"? Is it simply because the boxes are in relatively the same spot?

But I agree.. if you have multiple guys you rate equally and have an opportunity to trade down and have a safe expectation of getting one of those guys... you should probably do that.

[rascal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKU3XLEytek&ab_channel=LockedOnNBABigBoard

[Guru of Nothing]

Really we're just discussing opportunity cost, aren't we? Well, opportunity cost mixed with dice (aka, judgment).

When a team gets ball with 35 seconds on the clock, it's wise to try to score quickly and go for 2 for 1, until you take a bad shot.

[CGD]

Man, last year was so fun as a draft process, discussions of Risacher and even Sarr, Dillingham, trying to get Reed Sheppard from Houston, hopes that no one before us took Castle, what to do with the #8 pick. If Cody Williams or Matas were going to be any good.

This year is so boring already, lol. We're overjoyed to get Dylan Harper. The #14 pick is a sort of interesting bit of gravy on top, but no one really thinks it's amounting to much beyond a role-player with potential upside. I'm more interested in seeing where some of these other candidates go from 3-12 or so.

Let's get to the draft already!

You don’t think there might be a crazy trade for #2? I put it at 20% still.

[Seventyniner]

So out of the 45 players taken from 2013 - 2021, I count (if I am counting correctly):

17 Fringe Starter or better (37.8%)

So... less than a 40% chance of doing better than a rotation player, with plenty of bust opportunity. Certainly I don't think a team should set their sights on a "just a rotation player" - but if you end up with a rotation/role player out of this range... you did about as well as expected.

I won't quote the whole thing, but that's fantastic work. Kudos. :bobo

[Mr. Body]

You don’t think there might be a crazy trade for #2? I put it at 20% still.

It's definitely possible. If Harper is truly seen as a jump up from the third tier, there would probably need to be a wad offered for him. Whatever it's worth, I thought I might trade back for Edgecombe, myself, or even Tre Johnson, as the fit is somewhat better (non-heavy usage in the first case and better defender, great outside shooter in the second), but no longer would want to.

[SpursBills]

We are fans of a team that took Josh Primo in the lottery less than 5 years ago. Anything can happen on draft night. Now let me be clear that I absolutely do not agree with this course of action, but just for shits and giggles, let's propose a hypothetical:

Let's say for a minute that the Spurs believe that based on shooting priors, especially looking at a pre-college sample, that Harper's always going to be a below average shooter and they don't want 2 guys like that in their future backcourt, especially since Harper's defense this year left a ton to be desired. You can say 3 guard attacking lineup, etc. etc., but they think Castle, Harper, Fox are all sub 35% 3 point shooters. Maybe Harper eventually becomes an all-star, but he's a flawed all-star like De'aaron Fox, with whom I personally think he shares some loose similarities.

At the same time, look at a guy like Noa Essengue. I personally think he's raw as fuck but probably worth a swing at 14. But this guy is basically catnip for Brian Wright. Super young, very toolsy, French, high level movement skills, and unlike Josh Primo, actually productive in his pre-draft season in a high level pro league no less. It's not hard to see Brian Wright looking at this guy and seeing, obviously not Giannis, but maybe Pascal Siakam.

NO offers TMIII, Herb, and 7 for 2 and Vassell. You can still take Sorber or whomever at 14.

Would I do the above scenario? Definitely not. Would Brian Wright do it? Probably not. But you can definitely see a scenario where he's thinking about it.

[Mr. Body]

We are fans of a team that took Josh Primo in the lottery less than 5 years ago. Anything can happen on draft night. Now let me be clear that I absolutely do not agree with this course of action, but just for shits and giggles, let's propose a hypothetical:

Let's say for a minute that the Spurs believe that based on shooting priors, especially looking at a pre-college sample, that Harper's always going to be a below average shooter and they don't want 2 guys like that in their future backcourt, especially since Harper's defense this year left a ton to be desired. You can say 3 guard attacking lineup, etc. etc., but they think Castle, Harper, Fox are all sub 35% 3 point shooters. Maybe Harper eventually becomes an all-star, but he's a flawed all-star like De'aaron Fox, with whom I personally think he shares some loose similarities.

At the same time, look at a guy like Noa Essengue. I personally think he's raw as fuck but probably worth a swing at 14. But this guy is basically catnip for Brian Wright. Super young, very toolsy, French, high level movement skills, and unlike Josh Primo, actually productive in his pre-draft season in a high level pro league no less. It's not hard to see Brian Wright looking at this guy and seeing, obviously not Giannis, but maybe Pascal Siakam.

NO offers TMIII, Herb, and 7 for 2 and Vassell. You can still take Sorber or whomever at 14.

Would I do the above scenario? Definitely not. Would Brian Wright do it? Probably not. But you can definitely see a scenario where he's thinking about it.

I wouldn't do that, no.

But more interested in the Essengue part. The dude is just bad, isn't he? Looking at his abilities and so on, he's just not a basketball player at a high level. He's super tall and long and is good at some of the things Saluan is bad at, but Saluan is actually a good shooter. I just don't believe in Essengue at all, he looks like he's never getting there at all.

[scott]

We are fans of a team that took Josh Primo in the lottery less than 5 years ago. Anything can happen on draft night. Now let me be clear that I absolutely do not agree with this course of action, but just for shits and giggles, let's propose a hypothetical:

Let's say for a minute that the Spurs believe that based on shooting priors, especially looking at a pre-college sample, that Harper's always going to be a below average shooter and they don't want 2 guys like that in their future backcourt, especially since Harper's defense this year left a ton to be desired. You can say 3 guard attacking lineup, etc. etc., but they think Castle, Harper, Fox are all sub 35% 3 point shooters. Maybe Harper eventually becomes an all-star, but he's a flawed all-star like De'aaron Fox, with whom I personally think he shares some loose similarities.

At the same time, look at a guy like Noa Essengue. I personally think he's raw as fuck but probably worth a swing at 14. But this guy is basically catnip for Brian Wright. Super young, very toolsy, French, high level movement skills, and unlike Josh Primo, actually productive in his pre-draft season in a high level pro league no less. It's not hard to see Brian Wright looking at this guy and seeing, obviously not Giannis, but maybe Pascal Siakam.

NO offers TMIII, Herb, and 7 for 2 and Vassell. You can still take Sorber or whomever at 14.

Would I do the above scenario? Definitely not. Would Brian Wright do it? Probably not. But you can definitely see a scenario where he's thinking about it.

At the end of the day, a decision like this is going to come down to individual evaluations. People who say no way they do that are basing that opinion on their evaluation of Harper and the expectation of what he'll be (and his ceiling). But if Brian Wright and the scouting team (who let's take a minute and acknowledge have way more information available than we do and are likely to be better talent evaluators than random people on an internet message board) decide that they think Harper is going to be closer to Jaden Hardy than he is James Harden... AND they have someone they reasonably think will be available at 7 rated pretty closely to (or even above) Harper... then they probably do that deal.

If the Spurs do trade #2, people are going to have really strong opinions about Brian Wright and his team. But IMO, the only way to fairly evaluate that trade (for now) is whether or not the Spurs got good value for the pick (which is how I came to my opinion on evaluating the MIN trade for #8 last year). None of our evaluations of Harper or whomever the Spurs alternatively take matter in the moment, because the Spurs FO clearly came up with a different evaluation and they are the ones who get to make the decision. Their judgement day will come down the line when they are proven right or wrong (though it is debatable how accountable anyone is for these kinds of misses).

[Ariel]

But more interested in the Essengue part. The dude is just bad, isn't he? Looking at his abilities and so on, he's just not a basketball player at a high level. He's super tall and long and is good at some of the things Saluan is bad at, but Saluan is actually a good shooter. I just don't believe in Essengue at all, he looks like he's never getting there at all.
I was about to comment something along these lines. I've read some people like Essengue, I'd like to know why. Yes, he's young and long but, though I have not done an exhaustive research on him (i.e., spent hours watching tape), what I have seen left me utterly unimpressed. He doesn't seem to have any particular skill to rely on, he's a bad shooter, mediocre defender, doesn't have a post game, doesn't have superb touch... he mostly has good effort level and awareness, and NBA size in a mediocre league, which of course will cause him to stand out. Maybe someone has watched him a lot more than I did and can help me understand the appeal, but until then this is one of the guys I find myself hoping gets picked before the Spurs are on the clock, because the thought of using 14 on him feels depressing.

[SpursBills]

I wouldn't do that, no.

But more interested in the Essengue part. The dude is just bad, isn't he? Looking at his abilities and so on, he's just not a basketball player at a high level. He's super tall and long and is good at some of the things Saluan is bad at, but Saluan is actually a good shooter. I just don't believe in Essengue at all, he looks like he's never getting there at all.

I think Essengue is raw, but not necessarily bad. I'm wary of French prospects myself because of misses with Salaun, Dieng, even Risacher I wasn't super high on. I'd saw I'm medium-high on Essengue, in that he's def worth a swing at 14 for me but I'm not going to go crazy and take him top 5 over dudes like Kon/Tre/VJ.

Here's the argument for Essengue: He moves like a wing but is the size of a forward and has the standing reach of a center. So he's toolsy for sure. On top of that, he seems like he doesn't really know what he's doing on the court a lot of the time, but he's affecting winning and putting up better numbers at a younger age than pretty much any of the raw French prospects we've seen in the past:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=noa-essengue--zaccharie-risacher--tidjane-salaun--ousmane-dieng

For the record on the missing data, Essengue's PER so far this year is 18 and his ORTG/DRTG is 126/108. I'd say German league is a step down from French LNB, but it's not a stretch to say he may be similar to or better than Risacher at...virtually everything aside from making set 3s while being younger.

I'm looking specifically at AST:TO suggesting non-broken instincts, his ability to get to the line suggesting physicality/aggression, and his STL/BLK% again looking at instincts.
With regards to his shooting, he's actually a better FT shooter than Risacher and only slightly worse than Salaun while being younger than all of them.

Obviously, the younger a guy is, the more projection is required. But if he's doing this against high level competition purely on motor and tools, and he's got non-broken instincts, it's a reasonable projection that he can turn into a useful basketball player. This may be controversial, but I like him much more than, say, Demin who is similar sized and is a more aesthetically pleasing game but sorely lacks in physicality, athleticism, and has similarly poor shooting numbers.

[jesterbobman]

I think the upside for Essengue is something in the realm of shitty Kirilenko (I'm saying shitty, because by a bunch of metrics AK47 got up to a fringe top 5 / top 10 player in the league - that'd be a miracle) - he's got some ball movement chops / connective chops, he's really productive (rim pressure numbers are great), and offering second side rim protection is really valuable. I get a bit of questions on overlap with Sochan as non shooting PFs, and he's too thin at the moment, but it's a valid upside bet based on both tools and production.

I get concerns about the shooting (and general half court creation), but if the shot was good he'd be closer to top 5 than top 15.

While I'd like him at 14, I don't think it's mad not to - it's an upside swing, and you could prefer more certain complete players.

[Limguogolo]

Don't necessarily trust the stats. Essengue plays in a minor league on a team known for giving a lot of playing time and responsibility to young players. The French league is more competitive, young players are rarely in the starting five and no mistakes are allowed (Traoré found himself, for example, in a position generally occupied by Americans; less efficient, the coach looks for other solutions and this has an impact on his stats).


Concerning Essengue, for me, he is a type of player like Sarr, not like Salaün. He's a big guy who can grab a rebound and run with the ball. Salaün will rarely do that.

[mo7888]

I think Essengue is raw, but not necessarily bad. I'm wary of French prospects myself because of misses with Salaun, Dieng, even Risacher I wasn't super high on. I'd saw I'm medium-high on Essengue, in that he's def worth a swing at 14 for me but I'm not going to go crazy and take him top 5 over dudes like Kon/Tre/VJ.

Here's the argument for Essengue: He moves like a wing but is the size of a forward and has the standing reach of a center. So he's toolsy for sure. On top of that, he seems like he doesn't really know what he's doing on the court a lot of the time, but he's affecting winning and putting up better numbers at a younger age than pretty much any of the raw French prospects we've seen in the past:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=noa-essengue--zaccharie-risacher--tidjane-salaun--ousmane-dieng

For the record on the missing data, Essengue's PER so far this year is 18 and his ORTG/DRTG is 126/108. I'd say German league is a step down from French LNB, but it's not a stretch to say he may be similar to or better than Risacher at...virtually everything aside from making set 3s while being younger.

I'm looking specifically at AST:TO suggesting non-broken instincts, his ability to get to the line suggesting physicality/aggression, and his STL/BLK% again looking at instincts.
With regards to his shooting, he's actually a better FT shooter than Risacher and only slightly worse than Salaun while being younger than all of them.

Obviously, the younger a guy is, the more projection is required. But if he's doing this against high level competition purely on motor and tools, and he's got non-broken instincts, it's a reasonable projection that he can turn into a useful basketball player. This may be controversial, but I like him much more than, say, Demin who is similar sized and is a more aesthetically pleasing game but sorely lacks in physicality, athleticism, and has similarly poor shooting numbers.

That's pretty much the way I see it. I also worry about his frame and ability to fill out if he's ultimately going to guard 4's in the future.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Think Essengue is too reminiscent of Siakam for Toronto to pass on him at 9.

If he falls to 14 he's intriguing, the intersection of size, youth and production is promising.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Essengue, like Carter Bryant, may have good potential. But both are raw and will take 2 to 3 years to develop.

But Spurs are suddenly in a win-now mode. Will likely pick a high floor guy or trade #14 for a veteran.

The sudden arrival of Castle, Fox and Harper has changed things quickly.

[Tyrone Jenkins]

Essengue, like Carter Bryant, may have good potential. But both are raw and will take 2 to 3 years to develop.

But Spurs are suddenly in a win-now mode. Will likely pick a high floor guy or trade #14 for a veteran.

The sudden arrival of Castle, Fox and Harper has changed things quickly.

If Asa Newell is there - it's a no brainer for me. He's 6'10", a stretch 4 who can defend 2-5, rebound, run the floor and plays above the rim. Some time in the gym and with a shooting coach and he's quickly a Marcus Morris or Jeff Green.

[rascal]

Think Essengue is too reminiscent of Siakam for Toronto to pass on him at 9.

If he falls to 14 he's intriguing, the intersection of size, youth and production is promising.

Siakam is smoother and not a weak.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Siakam is smoother and not a weak.

Really? Siakam at 18 years old was smooth and not weak?

[buttsR4rebounding]

Why does Charlotte do that? And why would the Spurs? They’ve already fucked us on one pick.

They actually fucked Atlanta. We just took their sloppy seconds...

[buttsR4rebounding]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/images/nba-draft-pick-value-research/saurabh-rane-draft-pick-vorp-box-plot.jpeg

The chart really seems to indicate that there could be huge value in trading back from 2-3 into the 4-10 range and picking up additional assets. So if the Spurs rate anyone close to Harper that would definitely have to be a consideration.

[Mr. Body]

I think Essengue is raw, but not necessarily bad. I'm wary of French prospects myself because of misses with Salaun, Dieng, even Risacher I wasn't super high on. I'd saw I'm medium-high on Essengue, in that he's def worth a swing at 14 for me but I'm not going to go crazy and take him top 5 over dudes like Kon/Tre/VJ.

Here's the argument for Essengue: He moves like a wing but is the size of a forward and has the standing reach of a center. So he's toolsy for sure. On top of that, he seems like he doesn't really know what he's doing on the court a lot of the time, but he's affecting winning and putting up better numbers at a younger age than pretty much any of the raw French prospects we've seen in the past:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=noa-essengue--zaccharie-risacher--tidjane-salaun--ousmane-dieng

For the record on the missing data, Essengue's PER so far this year is 18 and his ORTG/DRTG is 126/108. I'd say German league is a step down from French LNB, but it's not a stretch to say he may be similar to or better than Risacher at...virtually everything aside from making set 3s while being younger.

I'm looking specifically at AST:TO suggesting non-broken instincts, his ability to get to the line suggesting physicality/aggression, and his STL/BLK% again looking at instincts.
With regards to his shooting, he's actually a better FT shooter than Risacher and only slightly worse than Salaun while being younger than all of them.

Obviously, the younger a guy is, the more projection is required. But if he's doing this against high level competition purely on motor and tools, and he's got non-broken instincts, it's a reasonable projection that he can turn into a useful basketball player. This may be controversial, but I like him much more than, say, Demin who is similar sized and is a more aesthetically pleasing game but sorely lacks in physicality, athleticism, and has similarly poor shooting numbers.

Those are my comps for Essengue, too -- Dieng and Saluan especially. Saluan is more of a beefier potential 4, but he's bad at basketball, and that's what I mostly see from Essengue (if not nearly as bad, but Tidjane can actually shoot). Dieng is Essengue almost exactly to me. The sort where you say, "If he learns how to shoot, pass the ball, dribble, and play defense, he'll be incredible!" The kind of player OKC whiffed on with Pokushevski and Dieng both. These guys never turn out.

Risacher is a different issue. He had a better rookie campaign than I thought he would, but he doesn't cap out much more than where he is now, for me. A 3 and D wing is great, however, if not at #1, but in the #8-14 range where Essengue can go. But then... Essengue can't shoot. At all. And the rest of his game really is more Dieng. If I can get something like Risacher at our later pick, I'd be very happy, but that's not who this is, I fear.

[SpursBills]

Those are my comps for Essengue, too -- Dieng and Saluan especially. Saluan is more of a beefier potential 4, but he's bad at basketball, and that's what I mostly see from Essengue (if not nearly as bad, but Tidjane can actually shoot). Dieng is Essengue almost exactly to me. The sort where you say, "If he learns how to shoot, pass the ball, dribble, and play defense, he'll be incredible!" The kind of player OKC whiffed on with Pokushevski and Dieng both. These guys never turn out.

Risacher is a different issue. He had a better rookie campaign than I thought he would, but he doesn't cap out much more than where he is now, for me. A 3 and D wing is great, however, if not at #1, but in the #8-14 range where Essengue can go. But then... Essengue can't shoot. At all. And the rest of his game really is more Dieng. If I can get something like Risacher at our later pick, I'd be very happy, but that's not who this is, I fear.

You may be right - in general, very young and toolsy guys who happen to produce against good competition are generally a blind spot for me (see: Topic, Nikola back when I thought he had a 7 foot wingspan and Adriatic league was decent). I was extremely low on both Salaun and Dieng, Salaun because he seemed to have very poor feel in addition to having all-time low skill, and Dieng because he really didn't produce in an inferior league (NBL may be more physical but is certainly less physical than German league I believe). 0.7 AST:TO and really poor feel on film for the both of them, with neither being much of a defensive playmaker meant that their early opportunities for minutes and development were highly leveraged to their shot. I would say that comparatively speaking, Noa is a higher feel prospect, is more of a defensive playmaker, and the fact that he excels so much in transition gives him an early pathway to minutes and development on a team with Fox and Harper (highest combination of transition frequency and FT rate among prospects this year by far). The Poku concern is legitimate one, but I think that Noa has a much better frame capable of adding more strength compared to Poku, who also had his development severely stunted by sustaining a tibial plateau fracture.

So basically, I hear your concerns, they're absolutely legitimate. I think Noa is probably an exception to the raw toolsy international wing that I'd be willing to take a swing on though, in spite of those concerns. It's probably a moot point because I don't think he's making it past Toronto, and who knows, if he ends up busting I'll recalibrate how I view these prospects again.

[CGD]

Assuming Bryant is off the board, anyone else here think the Spurs will have a hard time passing on Demin if he’s there at 14?

I really do.

[scottspurs]

I don’t know what the Spurs will do but if they can get one of

Thomas Sorber (rebounding, rim protection, defense, toughness)
Cedric Coward (defense, good rebounder for a wing, shooting)
Nique Clifford (all around ready made defender, shooter, elite rebounder for a wing)
Noa Essengue (crazy potential but can also help now)

I would be super happy with 1 those 4. Probably in that order. If they are off the board I’m going best rebounder or shooter available even if it’s a reach. No more on ball players unless the Spurs are extremely high on them.

For example if they had Egor Demin as their 4th best player in the draft. You already drafted Harper at 2. You still have to go with the top 5 talent. If Egor is your 12th best player though and let’s say they are high on Asa Newell but he is 16th on their board. Have to go with big.

BPA has its place but so does fit and need.

[Mr. Body]

Assuming Bryant is off the board, anyone else here think the Spurs will have a hard time passing on Demin if he’s there at 14?

I really do.

I think they take Demin before Bryant, yeah.

[BackHome]

If they take Demin then I think a trade is definitely going to happen

[mo7888]

Assuming Bryant is off the board, anyone else here think the Spurs will have a hard time passing on Demin if he’s there at 14?

I really do.

I think they might even value Demin over Bryant...

[scott]

You may be right - in general, very young and toolsy guys who happen to produce against good competition are generally a blind spot for me (see: Topic, Nikola back when I thought he had a 7 foot wingspan and Adriatic league was decent). I was extremely low on both Salaun and Dieng, Salaun because he seemed to have very poor feel in addition to having all-time low skill, and Dieng because he really didn't produce in an inferior league (NBL may be more physical but is certainly less physical than German league I believe). 0.7 AST:TO and really poor feel on film for the both of them, with neither being much of a defensive playmaker meant that their early opportunities for minutes and development were highly leveraged to their shot. I would say that comparatively speaking, Noa is a higher feel prospect, is more of a defensive playmaker, and the fact that he excels so much in transition gives him an early pathway to minutes and development on a team with Fox and Harper (highest combination of transition frequency and FT rate among prospects this year by far). The Poku concern is legitimate one, but I think that Noa has a much better frame capable of adding more strength compared to Poku, who also had his development severely stunted by sustaining a tibial plateau fracture.

So basically, I hear your concerns, they're absolutely legitimate. I think Noa is probably an exception to the raw toolsy international wing that I'd be willing to take a swing on though, in spite of those concerns. It's probably a moot point because I don't think he's making it past Toronto, and who knows, if he ends up busting I'll recalibrate how I view these prospects again.

Seems to my amateur POV that Essengue (and those like him: Saluan, Dieng, etc... honestly Bilal probably belongs in this list as well. ) are the kind of guy who is eventually going to hit and make one team look super smart, while everyone is just left with a replacement level player (or perhaps even worse). In many respects... isn't that the same of the Thompsons/Dyson Daniels and the GLI/OTE machine (though there have been a few decent players to emerge from there at least... Jalen Green, Kuminga, Scoot and now Buzelis may not be everyone's cup of tea... but they do at least look like legit NBA players)?

Picking these raw, athletic French dudes (I don't include Wemby, Sarr or Risacher in this category) is going to hit big for someone eventually, feeding the pipeline for more of them for years to come.

[scott]

I think they might even value Demin over Bryant...

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

[Dejounte]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

I think the theoretical case for Demin after drafting Harper is less about him being a floor spacer and more about the dynamic versatility he adds to the offense. Even if the shot doesn’t come around immediately, the fact that he’s a capable ballhandler and decision-maker forces defenses to stay honest. They can’t just sag off and load up on Harper or the primary creator because Demin can initiate, drive, or make the skip pass if the defense rotates too early.

That kind of secondary or even tertiary playmaking opens up the floor in ways that aren’t always about shooting. The Spurs could become really fluid and unpredictable on offense— using guys like Demin, Harper, and even Vassell or Keldon in a switchable, motion-heavy system where roles aren’t rigid and anyone can bring the ball up or attack a mismatch.

He may not project as a traditional 4 yet, but the appeal is that he adds to the connective tissue of the offense. The more guys you have who can pass, dribble, and think the game, the more dangerous you become— especially in a system that thrives on reads and pace.

[RC_Drunkford]

I think that‘s what the whole „positionless basketball“ mantra the Spurs have been rolling with in the past years is about. They are looking for players who can play on the ball. I wouldn’t mind to add some offball players who can shoot.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I think that‘s what the whole „positionless basketball“ mantra the Spurs have been rolling with in the past years is about. They are looking for players who can play on the ball. I wouldn’t mind to add some offball players who can shoot.

Yes. The beautiful game only works if we have shooters.

Otherwise, our opponents will just pack the paint and let us pass the ball around the perimeter like clowns.

[mo7888]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

I think how they view his shooting is part of it, but if they took Demin and Harper I think they'd be looking at it as a more long-term play and not just how it fits in the current rotation. If they're looking down the line and Castle and Harper turn into max type guys they aren't going to keep both alongside Wemby. Demin + whatever they get from moving Castle or Harper may be what they're looking at. They could also see him as a replacement if one of those two other don't work out or busts. Realistically the odds of both Castle and Harper reaching the heights dreamt of here in rascal's wettest dream is very low.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I think how they view his shooting is part of it, but if they took Demin and Harper I think they'd be looking at it as a more long-term play and not just how it fits in the current rotation. If they're looking down the line and Castle and Harper turn into max type guys they aren't going to keep both alongside Wemby. Demin + whatever they get from moving Castle or Harper may be what they're looking at. They could also see him as a replacement if one of those two other don't work out or busts. Realistically the odds of both Castle and Harper reaching the heights dreamt of here in rascal's wettest dream is very low.

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

[jjspur]

I don’t know what the Spurs will do but if they can get one of

Thomas Sorber (rebounding, rim protection, defense, toughness)
Cedric Coward (defense, good rebounder for a wing, shooting)
Nique Clifford (all around ready made defender, shooter, elite rebounder for a wing)
Noa Essengue (crazy potential but can also help now)

I would be super happy with 1 those 4. Probably in that order. If they are off the board I’m going best rebounder or shooter available even if it’s a reach. No more on ball players unless the Spurs are extremely high on them.

For example if they had Egor Demin as their 4th best player in the draft. You already drafted Harper at 2. You still have to go with the top 5 talent. If Egor is your 12th best player though and let’s say they are high on Asa Newell but he is 16th on their board. Have to go with big.

BPA has its place but so does fit and need.

I like the list but I would have it slightly different
#1 Sorber - fills an immediate need on day 1. A better option than Bassey or Biyombo as a backup
#2 Ciifford - has a lot of ready overall skills, just what we need on the second team
#3 Coward - passes the eye test, but I'm not sure all his skills translate. At least he can shoot and this team needs shooting. He's rising in the draft -but probably still a reach at 14.
#4 Essengue - this years Saluaun. He might have some skills but you probably won't see them immediately. He's not skilled enough to take at 14 when we have needs now. If he's selected, he's probably getting traded for future assets.

[mo7888]

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

It's not that far ahead and I would also argue that anybody we draft at 14, Demin or otherwise, is going to have a negligible effect on a "win-now" agenda. That will come from free agents and trades.

[Mr. Body]

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

Nobody drafted at 9 is going to affect a championship window, and winning one in two years is crazy anywayl

[Manu&Duncan fan]

It's not that far ahead and I would also argue that anybody wr draft at 14, Demin or otherwise, is going to have a negligible effect on a "win-now" agenda. That will come from free agents and trades.

That's why there is a high chance that #14 pick will be traded for a veteran plus future picks.
.
Unless they see someone like Fleming or Maxie can contribute immediately

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Nobody drafted at 9 is going to affect a championship window, and winning one in two years is crazy anywayl

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

[CGD]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.

First, I just think they love these guys (feel, playmaking, size, fundamental), so I think it’s a talent bet they willing to be patient with.

But, yes, I think the theoretical case for this guy is as you suggest at the 4. This team has also been in search of secondary playmaking for years, especially with Devin failing to add that to his game.

[CGD]

You're thinking way too far ahead. Even the FO doesn't think this far.

We need to think about how to start winning championships within two years.

That's why Demin won't be drafted.

Why do you think a rookie drafted at 14 is going to be the missing piece? lol.

No, if you think the timeline is 2 years, they’ll need to add the requisite talent via free agency/trade.

[Ocotillo]

I clicked on some click bait story that said we may be trading the #2 pick. The gist of the story was Brooklyn wants to move up to the top 3 and barring that, they want another lottery pick. I don't know how appealing #14 is to them but some of us have suggested sending 14 and 38 in exchange for a couple of their picks in the 20s. Who knows, could happen.

[CGD]

I think they might even value Demin over Bryant...

I kinda think so too. I don’t know much about Bryant, but if they see him as an archetypical 3/D with limited growth potential they might just try to fill that need out side the draft. They may prefer to take the upside swing at 14, and that feels like a Demin or Essengue to me.

[mo7888]

I kinda think so too. I don’t know much about Bryant, but if they see him as an archetypical 3/D with limited growth potential they might just try to fill that need out side the draft. They may prefer to take the upside swing at 14, and that feels like a Demin or Essengue to me.

Those two are definitely upside swings for a #14 pick.

[John B]

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

Wow I want whatever you’re smoking. Maybe Indiana, but OKC is 15 players deep. The Spurs are maybe 7 players deep and I already counted Barnes twice for his age.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Wow I want whatever you’re smoking. Maybe Indiana, but OKC is 15 players deep. The Spurs are maybe 7 players deep and I already counted Barnes twice for his age.

Add John Collins and Lopez, we are suddenly a 9-player deep rotation. Draft Fleming or Raynound. Now 10-player deep.

Don't forget we have an alien.

Wenby + Castle, Fox, harper = The best Core in the league by a big margin.

We're much closer to a contender than you think.

[Jordan Jackson]

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

No, the Spurs do not have a better core than OKC.

OKC has more net positive players and can go 13 maybe 14 deep. Spurs got like 4 players currently - 5 if Harper is drafted and pans out. Spurs don’t even have a credible starting 5.

As great as Wemby will be, he can’t do it by himself. Spurs would get dog walked by that OKC team. Spurs definitely need 3 or 4 more solid rotation players. Draft or trade - they got to come away with something at 14.

[John B]

No, the Spurs do not have a better core than OKC.

OKC has more net positive players and can go 13 maybe 14 deep. Spurs got like 4 players currently - 5 if Harper is drafted and pans out. Spurs don’t even have a credible starting 5.

As great as Wemby will be, he can’t do it by himself. Spurs would get dog walked by that OKC team. Spurs definitely need 3 or 4 more solid rotation players. Draft or trade - they got to come away with something at 14.

OKC core is better right now. SGA is the MVP of the league. But I have no doubt the Spurs will catch up. Castle and Harper will be All-Star. I doubt Dort and Hartenstein would ever be.

[Uriel]

Ironically, a solid bench player would be about the median expected outcome of a #14 overall pick.

https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/images/nba-draft-pick-value-research/saurabh-rane-draft-pick-vorp-box-plot.jpeg
That’s a pretty graph. Did you make that? Also, why VORP (instead of say, PER or WAR or RPM or anything else)?

[RC_Drunkford]

I clicked on some click bait story that said we may be trading the #2 pick. The gist of the story was Brooklyn wants to move up to the top 3 and barring that, they want another lottery pick. I don't know how appealing #14 is to them but some of us have suggested sending 14 and 38 in exchange for a couple of their picks in the 20s. Who knows, could happen.

Let Brooklyn trade with Philly and they got their top 3 pick, we'lll draft Harper no matter what.


No, the Spurs do not have a better core than OKC.

OKC has more net positive players and can go 13 maybe 14 deep. Spurs got like 4 players currently - 5 if Harper is drafted and pans out. Spurs don’t even have a credible starting 5.

As great as Wemby will be, he can’t do it by himself. Spurs would get dog walked by that OKC team. Spurs definitely need 3 or 4 more solid rotation players. Draft or trade - they got to come away with something at 14.

yeah we're definitely still playing catch up. If we can get a solid rotation player with #14, trade for a starting PF and sign a back up C in free agency then the team should look much better. By 26/27 season is when Brian Wright should put the finishing touches on the roster to contend.

[buttsR4rebounding]

The more I look at the board the more I am liking Cedric Coward. I think he could be a long-term solution at the 3. Eventually a line-up of Harper, Castle, Coward, Wemby and PF TBD could be a real defensive jaugernaut. Combine that with a potential 40% 3-pt shooting and he could be the perfect replacement for Vassel.

[Bruno]

The more I look at the board the more I am liking Cedric Coward. I think he could be a long-term solution at the 3. Eventually a line-up of Harper, Castle, Coward, Wemby and PF TBD could be a real defensive jaugernaut. Combine that with a potential 40% 3-pt shooting and he could be the perfect replacement for Vassel.

Sam Vecenie made a mock draft a couple of weeks ago with Spurs taking Coward at #14. I know very little about him, so I can't judge, but Coward at #14 doesn't seem to be crazy for some good journalists following the draft.

Another interesting thing about his mock draft was that he has Fears slipping to #16. If Fears is available at #14, Spurs could get a good offer for their pick.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

OKC core is better right now. SGA is the MVP of the league. But I have no doubt the Spurs will catch up. Castle and Harper will be All-Star. I doubt Dort and Hartenstein would ever be.

Yes. I meant we can catch and pass OKC in 2 years.

[Vienna]

The more I look at the board the more I am liking Cedric Coward. I think he could be a long-term solution at the 3. Eventually a line-up of Harper, Castle, Coward, Wemby and PF TBD could be a real defensive jaugernaut. Combine that with a potential 40% 3-pt shooting and he could be the perfect replacement for Vassel.

he is one of my three options for #14. (along with Bryant and McNeeley).
I'm not sure if he is my #1 or #2, but I'm leaning to pick him.
I'm thinking about Iguodala in his days with the Warriors and the role he played on that team.
this would be my best case for Coward.
and certainly this would be a great outcome for a #14 pick.

[ginobilized]

The really good news is that there will very likely be some strong prospects at pick 14.The more I look at it, the better it gets.

Sorber, Clifford, Coward, Fleming, Newell, Essengue, McNeeley, Richardson, Raynaud and maybe Demin or even the much vaunted Kon if things get wacky. A few would be longer term projects and a few might carve out a role early on. I'd be happy with any of this crew.

I can see strong arguments for any of that group.Finding the right fit/talent will be the Spurs FO job and their pick will reveal so much about the future direction.

As far as building a winning core, we are on the right track, no doubt. Winning, however, is a learned skill. Unfortunately, losing is the best teacher, especially in high-stakes games. As I look at our roster, I'm dumbfounded by how much our Bball IQ and talent are increasing. Fox/Castle raised the bar considerably and Harper will be another high talent/IQ player. Looking at the team from Wemby's rookie year, this is such a marked contrast. Adding some wily vets like Adams, Kornet or PJ Washington would round out this team and make us playoff bound. I can see KJ still fitting in as a bench player with a team like this. Vassell is the odd man out here. As if I even needed to type those words.

[scott]

That’s a pretty graph. Did you make that? Also, why VORP (instead of say, PER or WAR or RPM or anything else)?

This is not my chart. This comes from Saraubh Rane back in 2016. In the article he goes into detail why he chose VORP: https://fansided.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

I found this part especially compelling and a good reminder of how some stats can mislead:


While far from a perfect measure, I felt VORP did a better job of ascertaining player for value for this purpose than Win-Shares (WS) or Player Efficiency Rating (PER). WS does a good job of identifying the top players, but fails in accurately capturing the value of average players, particular average players on good teams.[2. Harrison Barnes, a generally accepted league average to above-average player, has an equivalent WS to Dwayne Wade (4.9) because 73 is a lot more wins to share than 48.] Since PER normalizes stats to minutes played tends to overrate players that play lower minutes, but take lots of shots.[3. Michael Beasley finished 14th with a PER of 22.5 last year; ahead of All-Star PFs such as Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldirdge and Paul Millsap.]

This is actually an area that has been pretty heavily studied and researched over the years. In 2018, Tony ElHabr put together this GitHub page, where he did an amazing and thorough job compiling all of the various research on the topic, combining it with his own research to come up with his own thought on the Value of NBA Draft Picks. He gets pretty detailed and nerdy, and I love this stuff. If you do too, I highly recommend: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/index.html

Lastly, I chose the chart above out of the many included in Tony's research because I find it the easiest for folks to understand without getting into the weeds of these various studies. It plots out every single draft pick and it lays out for the viewer some clear, easy to understand conclusions you can draw.

[The Truth #6]

he is one of my three options for #14. (along with Bryant and McNeeley).
I'm not sure if he is my #1 or #2, but I'm leaning to pick him.
I'm thinking about Iguodala in his days with the Warriors and the role he played on that team.
this would be my best case for Coward.
and certainly this would be a great outcome for a #14 pick.

That's a good list. I like Coward from what I know. To me. he seems like a classic Wright type player, except for the age.

And speaking of his age, I'm personally less concerned about that as a role player, but I'm getting up to speed if he's typically injured or not.

But in general, those 3 seem like solid candidates at a position of need.

[BackHome]

My two favorite players both had serious injury Sobber and Coward - Coward had a serious shoulder which dealt with a torn labrum and some bone that needed to be shaved. Another NBA player who had a similar surgery was Ja Morant so that can give you an idea of outcome. As all outcomes it depends if they addressed injury quick enough and what surgeon did the surgery.

One thing I believe is that even when fully healed the chances of it happening again are possible from mid to high depending on damage.

[RC_Drunkford]

Sam Vecenie made a mock draft a couple of weeks ago with Spurs taking Coward at #14. I know very little about him, so I can't judge, but Coward at #14 doesn't seem to be crazy for some good journalists following the draft.

Another interesting thing about his mock draft was that he has Fears slipping to #16. If Fears is available at #14, Spurs could get a good offer for their pick.

Coward should be a very good 3-and-D player. He has a versatile offensive game, elite athleticism and a huge wingspan, similar build like Herb Jones. My top options for 14 are Sorber, Bryant, Coward and Fleming. I'm good with either one of them.

[PhantomDashCam]

1927142801642258784


https://youtu.be/6BQwIt8PwYk?si=GcXL225zhCbYGO8k

[buttsR4rebounding]

My two favorite players both had serious injury Sobber and Coward - Coward had a serious shoulder which dealt with a torn labrum and some bone that needed to be shaved. Another NBA player who had a similar surgery was Ja Morant so that can give you an idea of outcome. As all outcomes it depends if they addressed injury quick enough and what surgeon did the surgery.

One thing I believe is that even when fully healed the chances of it happening again are possible from mid to high depending on damage.

The surgeon who operated on him also operated on Kobe and Ohtani. Probably above average.

[Truckules]

1927142801642258784


https://youtu.be/6BQwIt8PwYk?si=GcXL225zhCbYGO8k

I think this was a very fair assessment of Fleming's defense that shows his strengths (range, quickness, strength, hands) and weaknesses (processing speed, technique, footwork). However, I do question him saying that Fleming is a wing when he's really been a big and probably projects the same in the NBA

[SpursFan86]

Here’s a question: where would you guys peg our chances of keeping vs. trading away pick 14? As exciting as it is to think of landing a Sorber/Bryant/Fleming type player, I can’t help but feel like it’s more likely that this pick gets moved.

I’d say there’s a 60% chance we don’t end up keeping this pick. Whether it’s trading for a vet or future draft capital I just have a hunch we aren’t adding 2 lottery picks.

Can’t wait for one of these guys to be there at 14, have us pick him, and then 30 seconds later hear that they’ve been traded away :lol

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I think this was a very fair assessment of Fleming's defense that shows his strengths (range, quickness, strength, hands) and weaknesses (processing speed, technique, footwork). However, I do question him saying that Fleming is a wing when he's really been a big and probably projects the same in the NBA

He will mainly play 4, some backup 5, occasional 3.

Look at the first play of the second video. He can cover a guard no probably, even though that guard is not suer fast.

[rascal]

Here’s a question: where would you guys peg our chances of keeping vs. trading away pick 14? As exciting as it is to think of landing a Sorber/Bryant/Fleming type player, I can’t help but feel like it’s more likely that this pick gets moved.

I’d say there’s a 60% chance we don’t end up keeping this pick. Whether it’s trading for a vet or future draft capital I just have a hunch we aren’t adding 2 lottery picks.

Can’t wait for one of these guys to be there at 14, have us pick him, and then 30 seconds later hear that they’ve been traded away :lol

That's what happened last year. It won't happen again this year.

[RC_Drunkford]

I think Fleming could be lethal as a smallball 5 in the right match ups

[scott]

Here’s a question: where would you guys peg our chances of keeping vs. trading away pick 14? As exciting as it is to think of landing a Sorber/Bryant/Fleming type player, I can’t help but feel like it’s more likely that this pick gets moved.

I’d say there’s a 60% chance we don’t end up keeping this pick. Whether it’s trading for a vet or future draft capital I just have a hunch we aren’t adding 2 lottery picks.

Can’t wait for one of these guys to be there at 14, have us pick him, and then 30 seconds later hear that they’ve been traded away :lol

I lean towards a 51% chance we trade away #14.

[Mr. Body]

Here’s a question: where would you guys peg our chances of keeping vs. trading away pick 14? As exciting as it is to think of landing a Sorber/Bryant/Fleming type player, I can’t help but feel like it’s more likely that this pick gets moved.

I’d say there’s a 60% chance we don’t end up keeping this pick. Whether it’s trading for a vet or future draft capital I just have a hunch we aren’t adding 2 lottery picks.

Can’t wait for one of these guys to be there at 14, have us pick him, and then 30 seconds later hear that they’ve been traded away :lol

Pretty good chance, IMO. The players available aren't very exciting commensurate to that pick area. Like last year they'll probably have a price they'd be willing to trade out and see who might match it.

[jjspur]

I don't see the spurs carrying 2 rookies unless its the #38 pick in the G-League. So a trade could be in order.

Spurs trade the #14 pick to Utah for Kyle Filipowski and the # 43 pick. We get a skilled PF/C with NBA experience, Utah gets the #14 pick and a chance to keep rebuilding. Utah values Filipowski but the 14th pick is also quite valuable. Both teams get what they want/need. The only issue is that Ainge can be difficult to deal with and values his players/picks more than they are worth. This would be a win win trade and we would still have 2 second rounders to keep/trade or stash in the G-League. We may not need two lottery picks, but some NBA team does. Lets make a deal.

[Guru of Nothing]

My guess is the plan is to keep the 14th (assumed Spurs have a guy they value here, still need to mind Ps & Qs), but if somebody makes an offer you can't refuse - what do you do? ...trick question.

[RC_Drunkford]

I‘d be pissed if Sorber is available at 14 and we‘re trading the pick. I genuinely think he‘ll become a top 15 center in the league

[CGD]

I‘d be pissed if Sorber is available at 14 and we‘re trading the pick. I genuinely think he‘ll become a top 15 center in the league

But Fleming!

[Manu&Duncan fan]

But Fleming!

He is high on both Sorber and Fleming.

Sorber does have higher potential.

[exstatic]

Here’s a question: where would you guys peg our chances of keeping vs. trading away pick 14? As exciting as it is to think of landing a Sorber/Bryant/Fleming type player, I can’t help but feel like it’s more likely that this pick gets moved.

I’d say there’s a 60% chance we don’t end up keeping this pick. Whether it’s trading for a vet or future draft capital I just have a hunch we aren’t adding 2 lottery picks.

Can’t wait for one of these guys to be there at 14, have us pick him, and then 30 seconds later hear that they’ve been traded away :lol

Trade away - 80%
Keep - 20%

[SpursBills]

The spurs will approach 14 like they approached last year's draft I think - they will have a list of guys that are worth a lottery grade, and if all those guys have been drafted, they will look to trade down or out. I think that they may try to do 14 + 38 for a 20's pick + lottery protected future 1st that doesn't turn into 2nds or something similar. You have to think that this being the first year that we truly see a significant impact of NIL on draft entrees, that there's a buildup of prospects staying in school that will smooth out over the next several years.

I also wonder how much the team takes into account relative strength of drafts years in advance. 2026 for example, is supposed to be an extremely strong draft while early returns show 2027 looks very weak - I'm glad that the Spurs pick that was traded in the Fox trade was in 2027 for this reason.

[exstatic]

I don't see the spurs carrying 2 rookies unless its the #38 pick in the G-League. So a trade could be in order.

Spurs trade the #14 pick to Utah for Kyle Filipowski and the # 43 pick. We get a skilled PF/C with NBA experience, Utah gets the #14 pick and a chance to keep rebuilding. Utah values Filipowski but the 14th pick is also quite valuable. Both teams get what they want/need. The only issue is that Ainge can be difficult to deal with and values his players/picks more than they are worth. This would be a win win trade and we would still have 2 second rounders to keep/trade or stash in the G-League. We may not need two lottery picks, but some NBA team does. Lets make a deal.

Filipowski is Mormon groomed. He’s not going anywhere.

[PhantomDashCam]

I think this was a very fair assessment of Fleming's defense that shows his strengths (range, quickness, strength, hands) and weaknesses (processing speed, technique, footwork). However, I do question him saying that Fleming is a wing when he's really been a big and probably projects the same in the NBA

I think that’s ultimately the question teams will be mulling over before they draft him.
This was Fleming’s shot chart from last season:

https://i.redd.it/8ur73c8wbe3f1.jpeg

OKC drafts after us at #15 too.

[exstatic]

The spurs will approach 14 like they approached last year's draft I think - they will have a list of guys that are worth a lottery grade, and if all those guys have been drafted, they will look to trade down or out. I think that they may try to do 14 + 38 for a 20's pick + lottery protected future 1st that doesn't turn into 2nds or something similar. You have to think that this being the first year that we truly see a significant impact of NIL on draft entrees, that there's a buildup of prospects staying in school that will smooth out over the next several years.

I also wonder how much the team takes into account relative strength of drafts years in advance. 2026 for example, is supposed to be an extremely strong draft while early returns show 2027 looks very weak - I'm glad that the Spurs pick that was traded in the Fox trade was in 2027 for this reason.

What they usually do is have talks with multiple teams about #14, setting everything up in advance. If there isn’t a player they want, they call team 1 on their list. If the player team 1 wants is gone, you proceed to team 2, team 3, etc. Draft night pick trades are usually set up days or even weeks in advance.

[Seventyniner]

I think that’s ultimately the question teams will be mulling over before they draft him.
This was Fleming’s shot chart from last season:

https://i.redd.it/8ur73c8wbe3f1.jpeg

OKC drafts after us at #15 too.

That shot chart is a thing of beauty. Daryl Morey fap material.

[T Park]

That's what happened last year. It won't happen again this year.

I’d say theres a 90% chance it happens again

[KobesAchilles]

Yeah we aren’t really deep enough to turn away any talent. So while I can see them trading away the 14th pick I don’t really agree with it due to the fact that we need talent badly. But then again our player development has gone through the shithole the past 5 years. I mean even White got better once he left us. I’m really worried I about Wemby. I don’t think we have this championship window everyone says we do until we act like a grown up organization.

[onechance87]

I‘d be pissed if Sorber is available at 14 and we‘re trading the pick. I genuinely think he‘ll become a top 15 center in the league

Sorber is a small center who cant shoot or jump.He is big as bassey.And we saw bassey get bulled by jokic and embid and
so on.

[RC_Drunkford]

Sorber is a small center who cant shoot or jump.He is big as bassey.And we saw bassey get bulled by jokic and embid and
so on.

He is as big as Myles Turner with the same wingspan as Myles Turner. Is Myles Turner small?

[onechance87]

He is as big as Myles Turner with the same wingspan as Myles Turner. Is Myles Turner small?

myles turner is a real big like 7 feet tall who can shoot and block shots.Myles can jump and would fit next to
wemby,castle, and harper perfectly.Sorber not really a lob threat or cant hit open 3s.His skillset wouldnt
fit next to wemby,castle or harper or even fox.

[RC_Drunkford]

myles turner is a real big like 7 feet tall who can shoot and block shots.Myles can jump and would fit next to
wemby,castle, and harper perfectly.Sorber not really a lob threat or cant hit open 3s.His skillset wouldnt
fit next to wemby,castle or harper or even fox.

Myles Turner:

Measured in at 6'11.5'' in shoes, with a 7'3.75'' wingspan, 9'1.5'' standing reach

Thomas Sorber: 6'9 ¼ barefoot, with a 7'6” wingspan and 9'1"standing reach


They are the same size. Turner might have more hops. but that's about it. Standing reach is exactly the same. If Sorber puts on some shoes he actually got Turner by an inch. Him not being a 3-point shooter at 19 doesn't bother me, he does everything else well. None of our PGs are known for throwing lobs. Sorber is a good screen setter and roll man which makes him an automatic fit with all 3 of them.

[Ice009]

How much height do shoes add on average?

[objective]

Turner measured 6-9.75 barefoot with a 9-4 standing reach as far as I can tell

Sorber reminds me a lot more of the other Pacer center; Tony Bradley

Exact same barefoot: 6-9.25
Weight 248.8 vs. Sorber's 262.8
Standing reach: 9-4.5 vs Sorber's 9-1
Wingspan. 7-5 vs Sorber's 7-6

Sorber also looks kind of slow and mechanical to me, and that was before the foot injury.

[objective]

How much height do shoes add on average?

Years ago when I did a semi thorough investigation, it seemed to me that the most 2 common gains were 1.25 and 1.5 inches, with small amounts of other people coming in at 1.0, then 1.75, then 2.0, 0.75, and tiny amounts other than those

in this case, Myles Turner is in the slightly uncommon camp by gaining 1.75

[Ariel]

What's the theoretical case for Demin to the Spurs after we draft Harper? That he fills out his body, develops as a shooter (here we go again...) and becomes a playmaking 4? Do we think he frame is capable of bulking up?

I'd have a natural interest in Demin in a case where we were still looking for a PG or even where we haven't drafted Harper, but he just starts to seem a little redundant?

The passing and vision is impressive on tape... I'm not trying to be a naysayer here... I'm genuinely curious at what the on-the-court theoretical case is here.
The case is, if he learns to shoot, he can be one of the top 3-5 players in this class easily. It's a big if, but a tempting one, especially if you're gunning for upside outside of the top 4/5, I'd expect him to be snagged before Spurs pick by a team desperate for top end talent, which would be almost anyone in the lottery really, Utah, Washington, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Toronto, Chicago... also teams further along that aim for upside like Houston or Portland could be in play. As for the Spurs his skillset is very redundant, we don't need any more shooting challenged on ball players, but if he shoots lights out in workouts (he was supposedly doing well) and you don't have better options available via trade and are underwhelmed by other targets, then you probably consider it. But I'd have to think the chance he gets there and Spurs don't have better options is slim.

[jjspur]

Whether we keep the 14th pick or trade it for picks/players, plain and simple we need a big - that means someone over 6'7" , and preferably someone who isn't afraid to get rebounds.

[CorrectCrusader]

Whether we keep the 14th pick or trade it for picks/players, plain and simple we need a big - that means someone over 6'7" , and preferably someone who isn't afraid to get rebounds.

Carter Bryant my beloved...

[Ditty]

I am falling in love with a Coward :tongue , but I think BW will choose Bryant if he is there at 14.

[CGD]

Checking an assumption here:
if these guys were available at 14, how would folks rank them:

- Bryant
- Fleming
- Essengue
- Cowherd

[Knoxxx]

myles turner is a real big like 7 feet tall who can shoot and block shots.Myles can jump and would fit next to
wemby,castle, and harper perfectly.Sorber not really a lob threat or cant hit open 3s.His skillset wouldnt
fit next to wemby,castle or harper or even fox.

Myles Turner is a center who plays 30 MPG and averages 6.5 REBs. That’s dogshit.

[dubross]

Bryant
Fleming
Cowherd
Essengue

[DPG21920]

My dream is to use 14 + something to move up enough to get Kon. I really want Kon badly (with Harper of course).

But if that cant happen and SA stays at 14 or somewhere around there I really want Noa Essengue

[RC_Drunkford]

why do people want another guy with no jumpshot?

[mo7888]

Checking an assumption here:
if these guys were available at 14, how would folks rank them:

- Bryant
- Fleming
- Essengue
- Cowherd

Bryant
Essengue
Fleming
Coward

[mo7888]

why do people want another guy with no jumpshot?

Did Fleming have a jumpshot last year? No, he didn't. Essengue is younger and his shot isn't broken. It's more about his ceiling compared to Fleming. That said, I've got them in the same tier, so either would be fine and you'd pick based on need/fit if both were on the board.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

Look at Indiana and Thunders.

Our core is much better than theirs.

We will be ready to compete after adding a couple of veteran bigs.

Put down the pipe and walk away

[RC_Drunkford]

Bryant
Fleming
Cowherd
Essengue

Coward
Bryant
Fleming
Essengue


Did Fleming have a jumpshot last year? No, he didn't. Essengue is younger and his shot isn't broken. It's more about his ceiling compared to Fleming. That said, I've got them in the same tier, so either would be fine and you'd pick based on need/fit if both were on the board.

Fleming shot 32.4% from 3 last year on 105 attempts. I wouldn't call that not having a jumpshot. But of course Essengue is younger. Just wouldn't roll the dice on another non-shooter for this team.

[SpursFan86]

My dream is to use 14 + something to move up enough to get Kon. I really want Kon badly (with Harper of course).

But if that cant happen and SA stays at 14 or somewhere around there I really want Noa Essengue

I would love this too (Kon is top 5 talent in this draft IMO)…question is what would that look like? Let’s say he slips into that 8-10 range: how much are you willing to give up to grab him? 14 + Vassell? 14 + 38 + future FRP?

[DPG21920]

I would love this too (Kon is top 5 talent in this draft IMO)…question is what would that look like? Let’s say he slips into that 8-10 range: how much are you willing to give up to grab him? 14 + Vassell? 14 + 38 + future FRP?

Ya that’s about right - Vassell + 14 + 38 or 14 + a future first

[Mr. Body]

Dallas traded the 10 pick back to OKC at 12 by having the Thunder take on Davis Bertans, essentially a salary dump. Thunder took Cason Wallace at 10, Mavericks took Dereck Lively at 12.

That was a bit different of a CBA environment. Going from 14 to 8-10 would probably require some pick(s) in some way or a good player. Also would require Brooklyn, Toronto, Houston, Portland to value that package over who they can pick, of course. I think Toronto and Portland possibly budge, but not the others.

Moving a few picks to Portland at 11 seems feasible but I'm not sure what they would want.

[SpursFan86]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/280577/Bulls-Interested-In-Drafting-Egor-Demin

Bulls apparently interested in drafting Denim. Doesn’t really make much sense to me considering they have Giddey, but would be nice for us since they’re one of the common names we’ve been thinking could take Sorber.

Reports are that they’re looking at wings/guards as opposed to a big man.

[Biggems]

How would you feel if the Spurs drafted Coward at 14?. Personally, I would not be upset. He is a legit 2way player. He would definitely be a huge plus with our perimeter defense and clog the passing lanes with that wingspan.

[scott]

How would you feel if the Spurs drafted Coward at 14?. Personally, I would not be upset. He is a legit 2way player. He would definitely be a huge plus with our perimeter defense and clog the passing lanes with that wingspan.

I really like Coward. Would not be upset at all. My favorite guys in this draft outside of the top are (no particular order): Sober, Fleming, Penda, Coward, Saraf, and Powell. I don't think Saraf makes sense if we draft Harper, and 14 is way too early for Powell... but I'd be happy with any of the others (though 14 would probably be a reach for Penda). I'd also be happy with Bryant though he's not in my list of "favorites"

[RC_Drunkford]

How would you feel if the Spurs drafted Coward at 14?. Personally, I would not be upset. He is a legit 2way player. He would definitely be a huge plus with our perimeter defense and clog the passing lanes with that wingspan.

I wouldn't have a problem with it at all. I think otherwise OKC will draft him at 15.

[CGD]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/280577/Bulls-Interested-In-Drafting-Egor-Demin

Bulls apparently interested in drafting Denim. Doesn’t really make much sense to me considering they have Giddey, but would be nice for us since they’re one of the common names we’ve been thinking could take Sorber.

Reports are that they’re looking at wings/guards as opposed to a big man.

They already have Giddey and are about to overpay the crap out of him, so OF COURSE this is what the Chicago Kings do.

[CGD]

Bryant
Essengue
Fleming
Coward

This is where I’m at too. I’m lower on Fleming and Coward at 14 than seemingly most here, and probably have Liam above those two.

[CGD]

My dream is to use 14 + something to move up enough to get Kon. I really want Kon badly (with Harper of course).

But if that cant happen and SA stays at 14 or somewhere around there I really want Noa Essengue

I like Kon well enough, but we all know he’s not getting past Utah lol. I’m coming around on Essengue myself.

[rascal]

Ya that’s about right - Vassell + 14 + 38 or 14 + a future first

No way

Too much for a backup spot up shooter at SG. He'll get eaten alive at SF with his lack of size and athleticism.
Just draft McNeeley with 14 who will a better fit at SF for the Spurs and still have Vassell and 38.

Kon is overrated just like Sheppard was last year.

[spurraider21]

Fleming shot 32.4% from 3 last year on 105 attempts. I wouldn't call that not having a jumpshot. But of course Essengue is younger. Just wouldn't roll the dice on another non-shooter for this team.
shooting 32% on 3 attempts per game would be the best shooting season of sochan's career at any level :lol

and while Fleming's shot can be tweaked, his form doesnt have to be torn to the ground or anything like that

[spurraider21]

me reading every rascal draft take for the last couple of months

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/03/Josep_Maria_García.jpg

[SpursBills]

me reading every rascal draft take for the last couple of months

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/03/Josep_Maria_García.jpg

Sometimes I wonder if rascal is actually a genius / clairvoyant. Everything he's wanted in the last 2 years has basically come to fruition.

Last year: basically was in on Castle from the beginning of the year, in spite of a ton of posters wanting more shooting on a team that couldn't shoot. Ultimately, Spurs draft Castle
Before this past season: wanted the Spurs to tank again for a "star", got yelled at constantly because of this stance. Spurs ended up soft tanking.
This season: Kept talking about how awesome Dylan Harper was throughout the year even though Spurs basically had no chance of being in position to draft him. Magically, Spurs end up with the #2 pick and are about to take Harper.

I swear, if they end up dumping Sochan, trading Vassell, and taking McNeeley at 14, I may just start taking this dude's word as gospel.

[exstatic]

Sometimes I wonder if rascal is actually a genius / clairvoyant. Everything he's wanted in the last 2 years has basically come to fruition.

Last year: basically was in on Castle from the beginning of the year, in spite of a ton of posters wanting more shooting on a team that couldn't shoot. Ultimately, Spurs draft Castle
Before this past season: wanted the Spurs to tank again for a "star", got yelled at constantly because of this stance. Spurs ended up soft tanking.
This season: Kept talking about how awesome Dylan Harper was throughout the year even though Spurs basically had no chance of being in position to draft him. Magically, Spurs end up with the #2 pick and are about to take Harper.

I swear, if they end up dumping Sochan, trading Vassell, and taking McNeeley at 14, I may just start taking this dude's word as gospel.

timvp’s alt,tbh.

[scott]

shooting 32% on 3 attempts per game would be the best shooting season of sochan's career at any level :lol

and while Fleming's shot can be tweaked, his form doesnt have to be torn to the ground or anything like that

those summer workout videos tho....

[scott]

Sometimes I wonder if rascal is actually a genius / clairvoyant. Everything he's wanted in the last 2 years has basically come to fruition.

Last year: basically was in on Castle from the beginning of the year, in spite of a ton of posters wanting more shooting on a team that couldn't shoot. Ultimately, Spurs draft Castle
Before this past season: wanted the Spurs to tank again for a "star", got yelled at constantly because of this stance. Spurs ended up soft tanking.
This season: Kept talking about how awesome Dylan Harper was throughout the year even though Spurs basically had no chance of being in position to draft him. Magically, Spurs end up with the #2 pick and are about to take Harper.

I swear, if they end up dumping Sochan, trading Vassell, and taking McNeeley at 14, I may just start taking this dude's word as gospel.
rascal was also the person most absolutely convinced we were getting Wemby. He knew it all along.

rascal is from the future.

[Mr. Body]

Holy shit we're trading for Shaeden Sharpe.

[scott]

We'll see who is willing to show their face around here when Shaedon Sharpe is lifting his MVP trophy.

[Dejounte]

Sometimes I wonder if rascal is actually a genius / clairvoyant. Everything he's wanted in the last 2 years has basically come to fruition.

Last year: basically was in on Castle from the beginning of the year, in spite of a ton of posters wanting more shooting on a team that couldn't shoot. Ultimately, Spurs draft Castle
Before this past season: wanted the Spurs to tank again for a "star", got yelled at constantly because of this stance. Spurs ended up soft tanking.
This season: Kept talking about how awesome Dylan Harper was throughout the year even though Spurs basically had no chance of being in position to draft him. Magically, Spurs end up with the #2 pick and are about to take Harper.

I swear, if they end up dumping Sochan, trading Vassell, and taking McNeeley at 14, I may just start taking this dude's word as gospel.
Being high on a top mocked prospect isn’t exactly a bold prediction. All this glorification of a known racist is just enabling his behavior.

He keeps posting the same thing over and over without offering any new depth of thought, as if repeating himself will somehow change someone’s mind. It’s incredibly annoying. I don’t know how anyone could be a fan of that.

[scott]

Being high on a top mocked prospect isn’t exactly a bold prediction. All this glorification of a known racist is just enabling his behavior.

He keeps posting the same thing over and over without offering any new depth of thought, as if repeating himself will somehow change someone’s mind. It’s incredibly annoying. I don’t know how anyone could be a fan of that.

How is rascal a known racist?

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Being high on a top mocked prospect isn’t exactly a bold prediction. All this glorification of a known racist is just enabling his behavior.

He keeps posting the same thing over and over without offering any new depth of thought, as if repeating himself will somehow change someone’s mind. It’s incredibly annoying. I don’t know how anyone could be a fan of that.

Why do you call Rascal a raciest? He likes Liam McNeeley.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Sometimes I wonder if rascal is actually a genius / clairvoyant. Everything he's wanted in the last 2 years has basically come to fruition.

Last year: basically was in on Castle from the beginning of the year, in spite of a ton of posters wanting more shooting on a team that couldn't shoot. Ultimately, Spurs draft Castle
Before this past season: wanted the Spurs to tank again for a "star", got yelled at constantly because of this stance. Spurs ended up soft tanking.
This season: Kept talking about how awesome Dylan Harper was throughout the year even though Spurs basically had no chance of being in position to draft him. Magically, Spurs end up with the #2 pick and are about to take Harper.

I swear, if they end up dumping Sochan, trading Vassell, and taking McNeeley at 14, I may just start taking this dude's word as gospel.

We're not going to Dump Sochan. He deserve more time to prove himself. He looks like a late Bloomer to me. I think his 3 shot will improve this coming season.

We're not going to draft McNeeley. We either trade #14 pick or draft a big.

[Dejounte]

Why do you call Rascal a raciest? He likes Liam McNeeley.

“I’ve got a black friend. That doesn’t make me racist.”

[Degoat]

Carter
Fleming
Newell
Sorber

Not in any order but one of the guys would be icing on the cake @ 14, still intrigued by Queen despite his short comings too

[spurraider21]

Being high on a top mocked prospect isn’t exactly a bold prediction. All this glorification of a known racist is just enabling his behavior.

He keeps posting the same thing over and over without offering any new depth of thought, as if repeating himself will somehow change someone’s mind. It’s incredibly annoying. I don’t know how anyone could be a fan of that.
He’s a sniper tbh

[CGD]

We're not going to Dump Sochan. He deserve more time to prove himself. He looks like a late Bloomer to me. I think his 3 shot will improve this coming season.

We're not going to draft McNeeley. We either trade #14 pick or draft a big.

This board is too low on McNeely. If Portland or whoever takes Bryant, it would not shock me in the least to see Liam at 14.

For the record I bought Liam stock last fall, and think he’d be a great fit.

[RC_Drunkford]

This board is too low on McNeely. If Portland or whoever takes Bryant, it would not shock me in the least to see Liam at 14.

For the record I bought Liam stock last fall, and think he’d be a great fit.

a lot of mocks are too. Mainly because UCONN didn't have a PG and he played through pneumonia and got injured mid season. I just see the defense as being average which is why I prefer a couple of other guys over him.

[Biggems]

I really like Coward. Would not be upset at all. My favorite guys in this draft outside of the top are (no particular order): Sober, Fleming, Penda, Coward, Saraf, and Powell. I don't think Saraf makes sense if we draft Harper, and 14 is way too early for Powell... but I'd be happy with any of the others (though 14 would probably be a reach for Penda). I'd also be happy with Bryant though he's not in my list of "favorites"

As a sports fan, I have always loved great defense. I have loved the ability to just shut your opposition down or make them work twice as hard to find success.

Coward takes great pride in defense. He is driven to excel on that end of the court. This is the biggest reason I would be happy if we took him at 14. Let's be honest, without Wemby, our D is nothing to write home about. Yes, Sochan, Castle, and sometimes Vassell and Wesley look good on that end, but we need more. Wesley is most likely gone. Vassell looks to be trade bait, not sure though.

Wemby, Sochan, Coward, and Castle give us 4 outstanding defenders to help close out games.

[CGD]

a lot of mocks are too. Mainly because UCONN didn't have a PG and he played through pneumonia and got injured mid season. I just see the defense as being average which is why I prefer a couple of other guys over him.

I get it. I personally don’t see the huge drop between him and Kon, who everyone seems to adore.

[RC_Drunkford]

I get it. I personally don’t see the huge drop between him and Kon, who everyone seems to adore.

you can make the argument that if they switched teams, their draft positions would switch too.

[CGD]

Interesting bit on the KOC show about Carter Bryant. Seems like some scouts are calling him the ultimate tease, and that he has a lot of work to do:

https://www.google.com/search?q=tate+frazier+draft&sca_esv=b631beea55e1bb1c&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS975US975&hl=en-US&ei=6jo7aNbWFZSv5NoPoI6_4AQ&oq=tate+frazier+draft&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIhJ0YXRlIGZyYXpp ZXIgZHJhZnQyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMg UQIRigATIIEAAYgAQYogQyBRAAGO8FMgUQABjvBUjtKVDfB1iS E3ACeAGQAQCYAVGgAY4DqgEBNrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCCKACsAPCAg oQABiwAxjWBBhHwgINEAAYgAQYsAMYQxiKBcICExAuGIAEGLAD GEMYyAMYigXYAQHCAhYQLhiABBiwAxhDGNQCGMgDGIoF2AEBwg IFEC4YgATCAgUQABiABMICChAAGIAEGEMYigXCAgUQIRirAsIC BRAhGJ8FmAMAiAYBkAYRugYECAEYCJIHATigB7gjsgcBNrgHnw PCBwcwLjIuNS4xyAcf&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:cf7a7ce2,vid:xByTidtjta8,st:0

[Mr. Body]

Interesting bit on the KOC show about Carter Bryant. Seems like some scouts are calling him the ultimate tease, and that he has a lot of work to do:

https://www.google.com/search?q=tate+frazier+draft&sca_esv=b631beea55e1bb1c&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS975US975&hl=en-US&ei=6jo7aNbWFZSv5NoPoI6_4AQ&oq=tate+frazier+draft&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIhJ0YXRlIGZyYXpp ZXIgZHJhZnQyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMg UQIRigATIIEAAYgAQYogQyBRAAGO8FMgUQABjvBUjtKVDfB1iS E3ACeAGQAQCYAVGgAY4DqgEBNrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCCKACsAPCAg oQABiwAxjWBBhHwgINEAAYgAQYsAMYQxiKBcICExAuGIAEGLAD GEMYyAMYigXYAQHCAhYQLhiABBiwAxhDGNQCGMgDGIoF2AEBwg IFEC4YgATCAgUQABiABMICChAAGIAEGEMYigXCAgUQIRirAsIC BRAhGJ8FmAMAiAYBkAYRugYECAEYCJIHATigB7gjsgcBNrgHnw PCBwcwLjIuNS4xyAcf&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:cf7a7ce2,vid:xByTidtjta8,st:0

Oh completely agree. It should set off fire alarms for everybody how little productive he was in college and how limited the role he was entrusted to play. Seems like a good kid with some enticing signals, but this is a player whose responsibilities were far removed from other freshmen, and there's probably good reason.

[RC_Drunkford]

Oh completely agree. It should set off fire alarms for everybody how little productive he was in college and how limited the role he was entrusted to play. Seems like a good kid with some enticing signals, but this is a player whose responsibilities were far removed from other freshmen, and there's probably good reason.

the reason is that he played on a team full of 5 to 3 year college vets. And people were complaining why he didn't get more minutes. That actually speaks more for him than against him.

[Mr. Body]

the reason is that he played on a team full of 5 to 3 year college vets. And people were complaining why he didn't get more minutes. That actually speaks more for him than against him.

Yeah, I hear that excuse all the time but it doesn't check out to me.

[spurs10]

Bryant is not the big Wemby needs. So I expect the Spurs to pick accordingly. Unless they have trade or two in mind.

[SpursFan86]

Essengue with another impressive performance today. It’s a shame - I think he has a ton of potential but picking another wing with a very questionable jumper just doesn’t feel like the move. If we had different personnel I think he’d be further up my board.

[mo7888]

Essengue with another impressive performance today. It’s a shame - I think he has a ton of potential but picking another wing with a very questionable jumper just doesn’t feel like the move. If we had different personnel I think he’d be further up my board.

It doesn't matter. He won't be there at 14 anyway...

[RC_Drunkford]

Bryant is not the big Wemby needs. So I expect the Spurs to pick accordingly. Unless they have trade or two in mind.

Bryant is a wing. More SF than PF

[Eaglenole2002]

It doesn't matter. He won't be there at 14 anyway...

Yep. He’s gone now. Too much helium.

[SpursFan86]

It doesn't matter. He won't be there at 14 anyway...

You’re probably right - he seems like a top 10 guy at this point.

[Beanzamillion21]

I’m looking forward to this pick the most.

[Ice009]

I’m looking forward to this pick the most.

I wouldn't. There is a high chance it gets traded.

[exstatic]

I’m looking forward to this pick the most.

Are you another team’s fan? Pretty high chance it gets moved.

[rascal]

Are you another team’s fan? Pretty high chance it gets moved.

Why is that?

Spurs still have holes to fill on the roster and there will be useful players in this draft at 14.

This draft is much deeper with talent than last year. I expect the spurs to draft and keep the pick this year.

[CGD]

I think they should keep this pick. Everyone keeps saying the draft is flat between 6-20. This is where you trust your scouting people.

[mo7888]

Why is that?

Spurs still have holes to fill on the roster and there will be useful players in this draft at 14.

This draft is much deeper with talent than last year. I expect the spurs to draft and keep the pick this year.

I expect them to keep it too. If there's a significant moves to be made im sure it'll be on the table, but this puck is worth more this year than recent drafts.

[CorrectCrusader]

Oh completely agree. It should set off fire alarms for everybody how little productive he was in college and how limited the role he was entrusted to play. Seems like a good kid with some enticing signals, but this is a player whose responsibilities were far removed from other freshmen, and there's probably good reason.

The reason is because his team was full of seniors and older players. In close games he was in the end-game lineups.
Don't get fooled because college coaches play favorites.

[CorrectCrusader]

My dream picks for #14 are in order;

Carter Bryant
Noa Essengue
Derik Queen
Cedric Coward
Rasheer Fleming
Collin Murray-Boyles
Thomas Sorber
Maxime Raynaud

[Manu20]

Kevin O'Conner Mock Draft....It has Maluach falling to #14

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/draft/?view=default&board=0&filter=round%3Aall

It wouldn’t be the biggest shocker if Maluach ends up slipping to the back half of the lottery with wings on the rise. And the Spurs could be a good landing spot for him since he could play both next to Victor Wembanyama and behind him as a much-needed backup center. Malauch is a towering rim protector with switchable mobility, erasing shots at the rim and shadowing quick guards on the perimeter. But beyond dunking lobs, he’s a work in progress on offense with a lack of seasoning as a screener, shooter, and creator. Such a raw skill-set should come as no surprise since the South Sudan native didn’t start playing basketball until he was 13. The Spurs can be patient with him, though, letting him play a focused role as he grows in those fundamental areas of the game.

[CorrectCrusader]

Kevin O'Conner Mock Draft....It has Maluach falling to #14

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/draft/?view=default&board=0&filter=round%3Aall

It wouldn’t be the biggest shocker if Maluach ends up slipping to the back half of the lottery with wings on the rise. And the Spurs could be a good landing spot for him since he could play both next to Victor Wembanyama and behind him as a much-needed backup center. Malauch is a towering rim protector with switchable mobility, erasing shots at the rim and shadowing quick guards on the perimeter. But beyond dunking lobs, he’s a work in progress on offense with a lack of seasoning as a screener, shooter, and creator. Such a raw skill-set should come as no surprise since the South Sudan native didn’t start playing basketball until he was 13. The Spurs can be patient with him, though, letting him play a focused role as he grows in those fundamental areas of the game.

Atlanta picking Jase over Maluach is a fireable offense

[exstatic]

Why is that?

Spurs still have holes to fill on the roster and there will be useful players in this draft at 14.

This draft is much deeper with talent than last year. I expect the spurs to draft and keep the pick this year.

We need veterans now, but will need cost controlled rookies in five years. Kick this pick down the road.

[Seventyniner]

Atlanta picking Jase over Maluach is a fireable offense

The Hawks already fired their GM. New guy might think he has some runway and can make risky moves early.

[SpursFan86]

We need veterans now, but will need cost controlled rookies in five years. Kick this pick down the road.

I get the sentiment, and have been talking about how I think it’s fairly unlikely they keep this pick. That being said I’m hoping they do. This just seems like a great draft class where there are multiple guys who could turn out to be high level role players that fit our needs at 14. Obviously if the Spurs don’t feel the same way they should trade the pick.

[exstatic]

I get the sentiment, and have been talking about how I think it’s fairly unlikely they keep this pick. That being said I’m hoping they do. This just seems like a great draft class where there are multiple guys who could turn out to be high level role players that fit our needs at 14. Obviously if the Spurs don’t feel the same way they should trade the pick.

My thoughts are that there is a possibility that they keep the pick, but the probability is in the 15-20% range. Someone really good would have to fall, like Paul Pierce to the Celtics at #11 back in the day. I’m expecting the pick to be flipped, especially since our pick stash was depleted in the Fox trade.

[TimDunkem]

Kevin O'Conner Mock Draft....It has Maluach falling to #14

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/draft/?view=default&board=0&filter=round%3Aall

It wouldn’t be the biggest shocker if Maluach ends up slipping to the back half of the lottery with wings on the rise. And the Spurs could be a good landing spot for him since he could play both next to Victor Wembanyama and behind him as a much-needed backup center. Malauch is a towering rim protector with switchable mobility, erasing shots at the rim and shadowing quick guards on the perimeter. But beyond dunking lobs, he’s a work in progress on offense with a lack of seasoning as a screener, shooter, and creator. Such a raw skill-set should come as no surprise since the South Sudan native didn’t start playing basketball until he was 13. The Spurs can be patient with him, though, letting him play a focused role as he grows in those fundamental areas of the game.

If he's there at 14 you take him. No brainer.

[sfernald]

My latest wish list at #14 is (in order):

Essengue (can’t resist the potential there)

Bryant (still looks like a perfect role player for a championship team full of stars)

CMS (mocks are way underselling him. I just watched his last game against Arkansas and focused on him the entire game. He’s a bit unorthodox but he’s a baller with a 1A star mentality. He does so much on the court. All the little things. An incredibly cerebral player. I totally believe he will develop a three point shot and become a star. He is such a good defender too. He has the brains to be a true spur. And would be a perfect fit next to Wemby. I know this dates me but he reminds me of a young player coming into the league named Charles Barkley lol. Watch his games. Amazing talent and brains for the game!)

Coward (don’t really know enough about him to feel certain but I like what I do see more than Fleming for example).

[Gagnrath]

Makes little sense to compare him to tre Jones.

And the Spurs are absolutely short on guys who can bring up the ball, so much so that Wemby spent half a season with Sochan doing it.

Kid is 6'10 and can do everything. Makes plenty of sense to swing for the fences on those types. Although the way the draft is looking, spurs will likely have better prospects available.
That was an off season ago and a few acquisitions, There was this guy who got the rookie of the year trophy, his name is Stephon Castle, then a recent former all-star named Fox, and something of a veteran point guard with some history floating around the league named Chris Paul.

[SpursFan86]

Bryant has sort of solidified himself as my clear #1 choice at this point. I’m trying not to get too excited but I’d be seriously disappointed if he’s available at 14 and we pass him up.

He’s arguably the best perimeter defender in the draft who can guard 2-4s and also has the size to help on weak side rim protection. He demonstrated some very solid catch and shoot abilities. The biggest downside you hear is about his offensive potential, but 1) I think he was just playing the role asked of him on a team with older players, and 2) we legitimately have the perfect team for someone like that. Do we really want another guy who is most valuable with the ball in his hands? Between Fox/Harper/Castle + Wemby there are already going to be a bunch of mouths to feed as it relates to on-ball usage.

Obviously it would be nice for him to develop more of an offensive game (which again, I think is absolutely in the realm of possibilities), but even if he doesn’t it seems like his floor is the exact 3&D archetype we need.

[RC_Drunkford]

What I like about Bryant is that he was the one calling out coverages in college. We need more defenders who communicate. Our team lacks that a lot.

He showed some off the dribble pull up potential in high school too.

[spurraider21]

one of the big criticisms of Bryant is that he got toasted by Cooper Flagg in the tournament. yeah, getting torched in one game by an elite prospect like that isnt scaring me off.

[SpursFan86]

one of the big criticisms of Bryant is that he got toasted by Cooper Flagg in the tournament. yeah, getting torched in one game by an elite prospect like that isnt scaring me off.

Yeah, his defensive prowess is the least of my concerns. The only way he doesn’t become a valuable NBA player is if his shooting turns out to be inconsistent. He shot at a high clip as a freshman but it’s not like his mechanics are perfect or anything…so if you don’t buy him being a legit threat as a spot-up 3 shooter then I guess I could see being lower on him.

I just feel like getting a guy with his combination of floor + upside is very rare for outside of the top 10. Of course he’s not perfect or without any risk but given where you’re picking him…just would be very hard to pass up. I’ll be pretty pissed if Houston ends up snagging him at #10. Or if Atlanta snipes us at 13.

[spurraider21]

even if he isnt a lockdown man defender, he's able to get out there and be disruptive, block shots, get his hand on loose balls. he flies around back there. its been said a lot, but man to man iso defense is not really the measure of great defense right now.

[Mr. Body]

You guys are kind of overselling Bryant. He's a project and has a very low floor. I wouldn't say 'bust' potential, as he'll be more later lottery, but this is far from a sure fire pick. He has good attributes but will have to add even more skills and advance those that he has in order to make it and, again, he was far too limited in college to either know that potential is there or accept that he didn't play enough because of seniority. Good players play.

[SpursFan86]

You guys are kind of overselling Bryant. He's a project and has a very low floor. I wouldn't say 'bust' potential, as he'll be more later lottery, but this is far from a sure fire pick. He has good attributes but will have to add even more skills and advance those that he has in order to make it and, again, he was far too limited in college to either know that potential is there or accept that he didn't play enough because of seniority. Good players play.

For a team picking in the top 10 that is hoping for a #1 or #2 option to build around? Sure, Bryant poses a good amount of risk and there’s a good likelihood he doesn’t become that sort of player.

But for a team that already has its core building blocks like SA, he’s just not that risky IMO. With what he showed as a freshman + his measurables it’s really hard to imagine him not being a clear positive on the defensive end. He shot 37% from 3 and was in the top 1/3 percentile as a spot up shooter. Arizona was very clearly a better team when he was on the floor and he consistently sparked runs when he entered the game.

It seems like the only way he doesn’t pan out as a valuable role player is if his jumper isn’t actually solid (let’s say, <35% from 3 as a mostly spot-up shooter in the NBA). Of course that’s a possibility but we’re talking about an end-of-the-lottery pick here. Everyone in this range has question marks and floors that don’t look pretty. I just think the median outcome with Bryant is preferable to the other guys commonly being discussed at 14, and his ceiling is pretty damn high too. It’s not like we’re talking about a guy who could theoretically become a 3&D player…he’s already shown he can do both as a freshman.

[scottspurs]

This narrative that Carter Bryant was a good defender at Arizona is not true. It’s one of the reasons he didn’t play many minutes. He was a bad defender. Out of place often beat off dribble and he would use his athleticism to recover. He won’t be able to recover in the NBA. Arizona played Duke twice and they had to bench Carter Bryant twice because of his defense on Cooper Flagg. Including on the biggest stage at the NCAA tournament. I’m not saying his defense can’t be fixed but I didn’t see this lockdown defense that everyone is talking about lol. Dude is a project on both sides of the ball. Comes across as more of an athlete than a basketball player.

[RC_Drunkford]

well if the Spurs want somebody more advanced they can pick Coward. I don't mind Bryant though. He has great work ethic and was working on speeding up his shooting motion last season. I'm pretty confident in his shot.

[SpursFan86]

This narrative that Carter Bryant was a good defender at Arizona is not true. It’s one of the reasons he didn’t play many minutes. He was a bad defender. Out of place often beat off dribble and he would use his athleticism to recover. He won’t be able to recover in the NBA. Arizona played Duke twice and they had to bench Carter Bryant twice because of his defense on Cooper Flagg. Including on the biggest stage at the NCAA tournament. I’m not saying his defense can’t be fixed but I didn’t see this lockdown defense that everyone is talking about lol. Dude is a project on both sides of the ball. Comes across as more of an athlete than a basketball player.

I mean, we’ll just have to agree to disagree if you flat-out think he was a bad defender at Arizona :lol I think he showed a ton in the way of help defense/off-ball defense. Was consistently making plays and posted very impressive block/steal %s as a freshman. His team was noticeably better defensively with him on the court vs. off. He demonstrated the ability to rotate and offer weak side rim protection that isn’t super common for a player his age. He proved he can guard 2s and isn’t just a tweener forward type guy who has to stick to guarding 3s/4s. On-ball defense wasn’t as impressive but I don’t think he was bad or even average in that regard either. Getting torched by Duke isn’t really a death spell to me.

Flagg is the best wing defensive prospect in the draft, but after that I think Bryant has as much of an argument as anyone.

[scottspurs]

Bryant could get a lot better and pay off. The last player the spurs really did an awesome job of developing was Kawhi though. Luka Samancic was a disaster. Same with Primo. Branham and Wesley don’t look like they will pan out. Everyone else they have drafted in the 1st round were more ready and adjusted well to the role the spurs gave them. If the Spurs draft Bryant I hope they have a clear plan for how they want to develop him. I would have him focus on defense 1st and let the offense come along slowly. Personally I would rather Spurs draft a player who doesn’t need as much work. I could live with it though if they are high on him.

[scottspurs]

I mean, we’ll just have to agree to disagree if you flat-out think he was a bad defender at Arizona :lol I think he showed a ton in the way of help defense/off-ball defense. Was consistently making plays and posted very impressive block/steal %s as a freshman. His team was noticeably better defensively with him on the court vs. off. He demonstrated the ability to rotate and offer weak side rim protection that isn’t super common for a player his age. He proved he can guard 2s and isn’t just a tweener forward type guy who has to stick to guarding 3s/4s. On-ball defense wasn’t as impressive but I don’t think he was bad or even average in that regard either. Getting torched by Duke isn’t really a death spell to me.

Flagg is the best wing defensive prospect in the draft, but after that I think Bryant has as much of an argument as anyone.

his help defense and recovery skills were there but the on ball defense from what I watched was not there. Devin Vassell also looked like a good help defender in college but that didn’t translate and the on ball defense never got better.

[The Truth #6]

I'm thinking Coward for this draft until we see progress with developing players.

[SpursFan86]

We have bigger issues if our development staff is so shitty that we’re having to choose to take players in the lottery with clearly lower ceilings and slightly better floors :lol Not saying I disagree with the concerns and I wouldn’t mind Coward at 14, but I’d be disappointed to see us take him if Bryant is still on the board.

[sfernald]

We have bigger issues if our development staff is so shitty that we’re having to choose to take players in the lottery with clearly lower ceilings and slightly better floors :lol Not saying I disagree with the concerns and I wouldn’t mind Coward at 14, but I’d be disappointed to see us take him if Bryant is still on the board.

You guys are really getting your hopes up for Bryant but you will be disappointed. I really doubt he will be there at #14. I see him going as soon as #9 to Toronto. And I think Houston takes him at #10. I’m really liking CMB though and there’s a chance he drops. The last player who I thought had similar defensive processing skills was Chet Holgrem. That is amazing! He’s a real shot maker too. Not worried about his offense at all. Not picking him because of Sochan would almost be as bad as not picking Harper cause of Fox.

[spurraider21]

carter bryant isnt some incredible on-ball stopper. he's a rangy help defender who can contest shots at the rim, make good rotations, and has solid instincts to get his hands on loose balls or errant passes.

even Flagg grades as a much better team defender than man to man defender... the only really imposing perimeter man defender in this class is probably CMB

but from what i can recall, Carter Bryant graded out well on defensive impact and on/off stuff

[Mnky]

That was an off season ago and a few acquisitions, There was this guy who got the rookie of the year trophy, his name is Stephon Castle, then a recent former all-star named Fox, and something of a veteran point guard with some history floating around the league named Chris Paul.

So 2 guys?

Yea.

[intlspurshk]

The pick is likely to be traded as I don't see the SPURS have the patience and resources to train so many young players. If this pick is not traded and SPURS management wants player with high floor and can contribute as a role player right away, Nique Clifford could be a safe pick who has 3&D abilities

[BackHome]

Obviously if we get offered a nice package we probably make a trade at 14 but I don’t think that will happen. Very big difference for teams trying to get in top 10 not so much at the 14rh pick so probably not going to get any decent deals. But who knows we might be able to trade pick for a veteran and maybe offload a player or three

[CGD]

I'm thinking Coward for this draft until we see progress with developing players.

You just know that if we pass on him, OKC is picking him at 15…

[exstatic]

Obviously if we get offered a nice package we probably make a trade at 14 but I don’t think that will happen. Very big difference for teams trying to get in top 10 not so much at the 14rh pick so probably not going to get any decent deals. But who knows we might be able to trade pick for a veteran and maybe offload a player or three

The players available at #14 this year will be better than the players available at #8 last year. Don’t just get hung up on the pick number.

[The Truth #6]

You just know that if we pass on him, OKC is picking him at 15…

Quite possibly.

[SpursBills]

You just know that if we pass on him, OKC is picking him at 15…

OKC has a lot of options at 15 that can fit next to Chet. CMB in particular would devastating as the long term 4/5 in that defensive scheme. Sorber would be excellent as well. Even Penda would do a lot of damage with his connective passing and versatile defense.

I blame Jeannie Buss for being too cheap to pay Caruso in 2020, which was an insane move even at that time. Today, OKC looks a lot less scary with Giddey in place of Caruso.

[SpursFan86]

OKC has a lot of options at 15 that can fit next to Chet. CMB in particular would devastating as the long term 4/5 in that defensive scheme. Sorber would be excellent as well. Even Penda would do a lot of damage with his connective passing and versatile defense.

I blame Jeannie Buss for being too cheap to pay Caruso in 2020, which was an insane move even at that time. Today, OKC looks a lot less scary with Giddey in place of Caruso.

Yeah, I’m dreading seeing who falls to them at 15. At least they didn’t get the Philly pick…