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The site seems like a truly enriching place
Pimping Robinson after Nude Africagate is...something....
The site seems like a truly enriching place
I posted it above, yeah I admitted I was wrong about 2022 both before and after Dobbs. I should have gone with my "Dobbs will hurt the GOP in the midterms" intuition in June 2022. The idea that red and blue waves happen 2 years after the opposite party president is elected was just too deeply ingrained after countless midterms and 2002 was so long ago that I just couldn't fathom a non red wave midterm in 2022, or a blue wave midterm in 2026 if Trump wins for example, and just underestimated the impact of abortion and also the Dems drastically improving their midterm campaign fundraising and financing from midterms in the past. I was wrong... I admit it. But I've been trying to correct my predictions this year using more pure data analysis rather than hearsay and stuff like vibes and yard signs.Your "data" is just a rebranded version of your 2022 wish casting. You can try and revise history all you want but with someone like Michels, whatever speaking flaw you're claiming he has now it didn't stop you from predicting he was winning in 2022. I look forward to similar hair splitting where you pretend you knew all along that former Bush administration official Dave McCormick was a flawed candidate after he loses and you try to downplay your laughably bad prediction.
As far as the other races go - Hovde will definitely overperform Trump in WOW but Baldwin will overperform Harris in the rural areas. I think Baldwin favored but I also wouldn't be surprised if Hovde wins. Close race imo. The prediction that Rosen running in line with Harris makes no sense, polls have her doing significantly better which makes sense when her opponent is an election denying Freddie Kruger with a disgusting ed up face
You made that prediction in September 2022, three months after Dobbs. The idea that you scaled your delusional 2022 predictions back after Dobbs is revisionist history, you predicted Laxalt, Walker, Masters () and Oz (
The idea that Rosen wins by anywhere near the margin she's polling in currently is silly. I'd be happy to eat crow if Rosen wins by larger than her 2018 margin in a blue wave non-presidential year. But I feel like the shy Brown voter exists and a lot of it is indeed because of his face (and lack of name recognition), similar to the non-hardcore MAGA Trump voter people in Arizona not admitting they're actually going to vote for Kari Lake but they actually will "come home" for the most part.
David McCormick is a flawed candidate, sure, but less-so than Dr. Oz or someone overall terrible like Kathy Barnette, and finding quality GOP Senate candidates in PA has proven difficult for quite awhile now. Every GOP PA senator in the 21st century has either outright flipped to the other party or flipped on impeaching and convicting their own party's president, and the GOP wants to get away from that stench. I wanted Scott Perry, but he'd be a "flawed candidate" too because the Dems would probably tie him to endorsing project 2025 and being too close to Mastriano. Sean Parnell was an average possible candidate but he lost his House election in 2020 albeit close to a D in bent and losers don't tend to do better the second or third time for either party (John James R-MI the exception not the rule). There's other congressmen you can pick, I mean Brian Fitzpatrick would probably beat Casey or Fetterman but he'd be another moderate like Toomey for sure and also you probably forfeit that House seat.
We'll see about that. 2020 polls had Cooper winning by double digits and he eked it out and he was the in bent. It's a "we'll see" at this point.
PA is definitely a big time Jewish state... [hence Oz being a very awkward choice in many ways for the GOP in '22]... NC not at all.
Definitely not pimping him at all, just stating that even though NC splits for governor vs federal historically and even recently post polarization, the margin probably won't be as big as the mainstream people think.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 10-04-2024 at 03:46 PM.
It goes beyond Dobbs. 2010, 2014 and 2018 all involved massive demographic shifts that were already happening and were inevitable, in 2022 there wasn't really a demographic shift left for Republicans. The rural and exurban areas were already dark red. Same reason why 2026 likely won't be a huge wave year for Dems if Trump wins - there isn't a huge demographic shift in favor of Dems that's waiting to happen.
If you're trying to go by more by data and less by vibes, theorizing about shy voters without any foundation or basis isn't the smart thing to do
McCormick was the best possible candidate (Fitzpatrick wouldn't have ever won a primary), but that doesn't mean he's not flawed and it doesn't mean he's good enough to beat Casey. He's not (outside of a wave year for Republicans). Casey's last name gives him too much of an advantage in the state and he's too noncontroversial. The Pennsylvania Republicans just have an awful bench of candidates to run statewide, same reason they ended up with Mastriano in 2022.
Trump has pulled his Nevada spending. Not terribly surprising since it's not a state that's very useful for his path to 270, but still insane given how dead in the water Biden seemed in Nevada just a couple months ago.
I mean you're not totally wrong, I'm just a millennial that grew up with virtually nothing but opposite-of-POTUS-party wave years and so my expectations were accordingly.
Going forward at least in the shorter term the "wave" midterm years should be less and more tempered expectations for the opposition party than they used to be, I agree. At least in terms of the House and Senate.
The main target in 2026 for the Dems should be picking up House seats in very suburban districts that they couldn't quite pull off in 2024 due to the presidential ballot, be it the Schweikert's or Bacon's of the world, as well as seats in California and New York where a second-term Trump probably won't be popular amongst independent voters and the Dems could have the option of nationalizing those races to flip the House back and make Jeffries speaker by Jan. 2027.
The Senate is a rougher picture because the few GOP in bents that you could argue might be vulnerable (Tillis, maybe you can make a case for Cornyn) are non controversial, non MAGA. We'll see who DeWine picks to fill Vance's seat, if it's LaRose the GOP should be fine holding there too. While, the Democrats will be playing defense in, at minimum, Georgia and Michigan, against potentially strong challengers like Kemp (but we'll see). The Maine flip for the Dems could be on the table but she's [Collins] a tough old bird up there and the ranked choice voting really hurts the Democrats there historically with centrist GOP in bents like Collins and Olympia Snowe.
It's less about vibes and more about historical trends and plausible explanations for why people getting polled aren't openly admitting they're voting for a guy with a scarred up face that looks like an albino Na`vi from Avatar, or a MAGA extremist alpha-woman who takes Trumpism and election denialism, media lambasting to a deep, dark extreme.If you're trying to go by more by data and less by vibes, theorizing about shy voters without any foundation or basis isn't the smart thing to do
Your "[Sam Brown] looks like Freddie Kruger" or "[Lake] looks like a lesbian" is just as hearsay-ey and vibe-y as anything I've written.
Granted, I think Gallego and Rosen are both slight favorites at this point to win, (as well as Harris in both states very narrowly) but I'd be downright stunned and eat crow if either (D) senate candidate wins by a likely margin. Dean er wasn't really liked by either branch of the GOP base in 2018 fwiw.
I agree that McCormick was the best possible candidate and that the PA GOP has a pretty awful bench that's about on par with a lot of their candidate benches in blue states. Most of the candidates that would win statewide elections are too bunch of an anathema to one side of the base or the other to both win a primary and win a general. You've got to dig deep, and you also can't look outside the state for candidates because then by default they'd be carpetbaggers, which is a catch-22, which is also largely why Jon Tester has lasted 18 years to this point, because it's hard to find people to run in Montana that are Montana born and raised like Tester. Even Sheehy himself is a carpetbagger from Minnesota, as was Rosendale from the mid-Atlantic, as was the guy before him that lost, etc. But Montana is just too polarized to the right at this point.
Another thing the Dems could do in Ohio is frame Moreno as a thuggin' and druggin' carpetbagger from Colombia, not sure if it'd get Brown over the hump with Trump on the ballot but it'd sure be funny and it's very effective in very patriotic places like Ohio and PA, e.g. tying Dr. Oz to Turkey.
That's interesting. I always had Nevada going blue, but yeah Sam Brown is cooked if this is true. I don't think the margins will be more than Harris + 2.4 what Hillary won in 2016, it's a polarized state, but the vibe has definitely been trending blue there since Harris was selected.
It also indicates that the hail-mary that Governor Jim Pillen and Trump tried to pull in Nebraska with changing to a winner-take-all state won't be happening for sure, and that Trump is not confident in NE-02, because punting Nevada also means punting the only path to victory without carrying any of the Rust Belt Three. (I mean, I guess Trump can win Virginia with the Youngkin map, but, I don't see it as super likely.)
Looks like Trump is going all in on the upper Midwest and populism and trying to replicate his 2016 map and no more. Maybe the right move. Can't spread yourself too thin like butter on too much bread, I guess.
If you go by Trump's rally schedule, including Vance rallies, it looks like they're putting all their eggs in six states: GA, AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events . Nevada, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, and other "reach" states Trump had on the radar at least when Biden was still the nominee, look to have been abandoned.
I've also heard over the phone from Trump insiders that Trump really wants to win on election night like 2016, not later, so it makes more sense to barrel harder in the swing states that aren't in the west because those take forever to count because they're majority mail-in. Meaning, less emphasis on Nevada and also Arizona, though the GOP has a much better ground game in Arizona at the moment. Turning Point USA has gotten a lot of funding in the last few years and they're based in Arizona and they're going hard in the state, so that should give Trump (and Lake) a better chance there in any case.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 10-04-2024 at 04:35 PM.
he knew that me and my wife providing 2 new dem voters eliminated his chances tbh
Make sure you vote for Jackie Rosen. Nevada will go up in flames if Sam Brown is elected.
That's a laughably stupid statement, akin to saying if Trump wins America will be a Christian Nationalist country by 2026, but I got a giggle out of it I guess. Also, yeah, have him write in "Jackie Rosen" oh and write "Joe Biden" too like a solid ~20% of casual typical city democrat voters would do based on the fact they don't even know by now Biden got swapped out, which is also hilarious.
What's there to burn in Nevada anyway... hundreds of square miles of sand, scorched dirt, and dust. The Al/Mark Davis family legacy, I guess, and now the Athletics, who already suck. Does Nevada even have a tree that wasn't planted by humans? Degrowth in all of Nevada and most of Arizona should be part of the green new deal because there's no water and it's too hot for reasonable green human sustainable living long term, tbh.
On a serious note.... people these days are wired to vote straight ticket, so don't think you have to worry about him with that.Governor and state level elections may be a different story but I don't expect anything greater than a total of 3% national all-voter combined split ticket when it comes to President and Senate. ~97% of the population will vote straight ticket at least for president and Senate and with a few exceptions in suburban districts probably House too.
obviously. gonna down-ballot this
the polling disparity between senate and presidential race is pretty stark in some states
by polls have nevada as basically a tossup and arizona leaning trump, but both rosen and gallego are projected to fairly easy wins in their respective senate races. i would have thought trump/lake would poll very similarly
That's what I've been saying, the polls are massively off with the split ticket and are ing stupid, just like they had Hogan and Tester ahead in the springtime which are equally stupid. Expect a massive narrowing in polling by election day similar to 2016 in the senate races and don't expect much split ticketing. In Arizona the "Trump / Kelly" split ticket voter was massively overrated by polls, sometimes 6-8% and up, and yet when the votes were counted the difference was a paltry 2.3%, and I don't expect much different in 2024.
Late September/Early October polls are historically horrible, they overestimated Dems in 2016 and 2020 especially down ballot and they overestimated the GOP in many cases in 2022 (Dixon, Oz, Michels, Masters et al). The late October and first week of November polls leading up to E-Day are much more accurate.
You wrote all that because you’re too re ed to notice that my “going up in flames” comment was a pun about Sam Brown’s disgustingly grotesque faceThat's a laughably stupid statement, akin to saying if Trump wins America will be a Christian Nationalist country by 2026, but I got a giggle out of it I guess. Also, yeah, have him write in "Jackie Rosen" oh and write "Joe Biden" too like a solid ~20% of casual typical city democrat voters would do based on the fact they don't even know by now Biden got swapped out, which is also hilarious.
What's there to burn in Nevada anyway... hundreds of square miles of sand, scorched dirt, and dust. The Al/Mark Davis family legacy, I guess, and now the Athletics, who already suck. Does Nevada even have a tree that wasn't planted by humans? Degrowth in all of Nevada and most of Arizona should be part of the green new deal because there's no water and it's too hot for reasonable green human sustainable living long term, tbh.
On a serious note.... people these days are wired to vote straight ticket, so don't think you have to worry about him with that.
I don't get the reference, but, fair enough I guess.
His facial scars are the result of burns.
I said Nevada would “go up in flames” if he was elected.
make sense now?
Do they have a Nude San Antonio sister site included with the subscription?
Oh, okay. I thought it was some movie / pop culture reference that I didn't get. For instance, you'd previously compared him to Freddie Krueger, and I never really was into sci-fi or comics of any kind, so those type of references would have gone over my head.His facial scars are the result of burns.
I said Nevada would “go up in flames” if he was elected.
make sense now?
Keeping this in mind, I don't see why someone like Tammy Duckworth wouldn't be on the table for similar jokes and attacks.... (though that seat probably won't flip back for a very long time if ever).
But Jeeeeeezus, Mother Mary, and deh Holy Triniteh told me I can only fawnicate with mah fellow, black, sistahs, and NO, transgendahs!
So are Dems in NV offering Soro bucks or Gates implants (w/free Hulu for one year) for ballot stuffing like in VA?
will do. I'm sure with Obama's senate seat, the whole Blagojevich incident, the peglegs, and "tammy s" taking her newborn daughter into the senate floor and nursing in front of everyone, there's gotta be something there... just can't put my finger on it
"Invite only"
I feel ya. I actually think it's kind of hard being who we are, pretty obviously supporting one side or the other and being involved but having to shut our mouths about certain issues that would get us kicked out of our respective parties. With you it's those (I agree), but with me it's, if I ever tell people in my right leaning political activist social circles the truth that I'm atheist and pro choice, they basically treat me as if I had leprosy.You could say that about pretty much any Republican that’s racist and a hardliner on immigration, but yes
Yeah liberals have gotten so negatively polarized by Trump into supporting mass immigration that if you say the immigration policy over the last 4 years has been a disaster you’re accused of being racist.
Welp, the Jets fired coach Saleh today.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/jets-...firing-reports
Looks like the team security had to escort Saleh out of the Jets team security after he found out he got the axe.
Welp, the Jets fired coach Saleh today.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/jets-...firing-reports
Looks like the team security had to escort Saleh out of the Jets team security after he found out he got the axe.
Trump has taken the lead in both Predic and Polymarket. Trump + 3 polls in Michigan, and Senate races on same ticket are narrowing like 2016. Gay Tammy s is outta money up there in 'Sconsin. It's falling into place.
How much did you bet on Trump's winning?
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