Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite

[Strategic]

Park and GNob will average 20 per and Spurs will sweep. I'm sure you know this.

[GSH]

I don't need to step lightly at all with MEM. SA will beat them.

Well, I like your confidence. You haven't wavered since pre-season.

I'm betting my 401K now. If they lose, I'm coming to live at your place.

[hater]

If we fail to win both home games we will lose to Memphis.

It all depends if they will be able to lock us up bigtime.

IMO they will eventually get the formula to lock us up but hopefully it will be late in
The series when its too late

If they get the formula in game 1 or 2 we are toast

[DPG21920]

Well, I like your confidence. You haven't wavered since pre-season.

I'm betting my 401K now. If they lose, I'm coming to live at your place.

I always have a room open. You can just PM me your favorite snacks/drinks as well and I will be sure to have them fully stocked in your room

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Memphis is going to pound the out of the middle.

With what? 25 mpg of Zbo? Conley drives sure but his game is based on quickness not power. Gasol is a jump shooter on offense operating out of the high post mostly. He get a few postups but it is not his mainstay.

[tholdren]

Dude was great in that Memphis series especially. I'd give the Spurs a much better chance if they had prime Tiago over Lee and Dedmon.

you're gay

[GSH]

With what? 25 mpg of Zbo? Conley drives sure but his game is based on quickness not power. Gasol is a jump shooter on offense operating out of the high post mostly. He get a few postups but it is not his mainstay.

You know... that was a bad choice of words. I was really thinking and talking about the defensive end. That really was just a choice of words.

I've learned to be cautious of trusting memory over stats and video. But the way I remember it, Marc Gasol was pretty damned effective posting up against the Spurs. More to the point, I remember thinking about how the Grizz were scoring lots of easy buckets, while the Spurs were making (and missing) too many difficult mid-range and long-range shots. When one team is getting lots of easy buckets, and the other is struggling on most possessions? It's a recipe for a loss.

It's Memphis' physical, grabbing, defense that worries me about this series. I could write a long story about it, but you've either seen it the way I have, or you haven't. Pau has been freaking deadly since he started coming off the bench, and that's a big plus. I'm still worried about the Spurs' guard play - especially the PG's. They are going to HAVE to take a step up. I think they are capable. But I also think that if they don't, the Spurs could lose this series. Maybe there really is a CIA Pop. All I know is what I've seen during the regular season.

Did I mention that I made a really bad choice of words?

[GSH]

I always have a room open. You can just PM me your favorite snacks/drinks as well and I will be sure to have them fully stocked in your room

Rudy T said, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion". I have a lot of respect/belief in Tony and Manu, and what they have done in basketball. And I still believe that they CAN come up big one more time. But I still can't help thinking that Memphis is going to keep them out of the paint, and force the Spurs to take harder, longer-range shots. It's hard to win a 7-game series, when you're taking harder shots than the other team. Not impossible, but hard.

I've got a lot of respect for your perspective. But if I like Crown Royal and good beef, and I'm not getting any younger. If I lose my 401K, you're gonna have to quit posting so much and take a second job.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I'll bet your 401k for my 401k that the grizzlies will take at least 1 game

[ViceCity86]

Grizzlies are arguably the worst team in the playoffs, that includes both conferences.

[Blake]

This team has an eerily similar feel to it.

See: 2010-2011 61 win Spur team.

[hater]

Grizzlies are arguably the worst team in the playoffs, that includes both conferences.

What a massive fail of a post

Memphis posseses a top 5 best defense in the league and a legit superstar

No other team can say that besides golden state and san antonio

[UZER]

This is another one of those Nono 50/50 threads.

Spurs win = I was trolling.
Spurs lose = I told you.

[ElNono]

This is another one of those Nono 50/50 threads.

Spurs win = I was trolling.
Spurs lose = I told you.

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=214458

[Horse]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

Only issue will be the grizzebras and even they can't make the Spurs lose to Memphis.

[Spurtacular]

A small part of me worries we'll see 2011 Part II. But 2016 Part II is more likely, tbh.

[bbarry]

grizz have been absolute trash in the past 2 months, even more than the spurs.

[mclinejr]

El Nono with the throwback troll post.

We miss you Timvp.

[SAGirl]

Wow Nono you outdid yourself

[SASdynasty!]

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

Hahahahaha Conley is the best Parker-defender in the league?

Parker averaged 25/10 on 52% on him in a 4 game sweep last time they met in the playoffs. If that's the best Parker-defender, that speaks to how dominant a player he really is.

[urunobili]

Grizz in 7

[Russ]

I think the Spurs should be a slight favorite based upon HCA and experience.

But if you want evidence that the Grizzlies should not be a favorite, check out this ESPN predictor model. I think they are way too optimistic about the Spurs chances of winning the series -- 90%.

In fact, the Spurs are favored more than any Eastern Conference team and, of the other eight favorite teams in their series, only GSW is favored by more over Portland.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page...inals-coverage

[Play Boban]

The Grizz should be the overwhelming favorites tbh.

[GSH]

The whole series with the Grizzlies comes down to the zebras, IMO. They play very physical, but they also do a LOT of grabbing and pushing that could (and should) draw whistles. It disrupts the out of the Spurs offense - especially the guards. Guys cut across the paint, and get held, and don't come out on the other side like they are supposed to. And our guards really struggle to create something on their own.

If the refs are calling some of those things, the Grizz will have to back off a little, and it will leave the Spurs some room to operate. If the refs are "letting them play", there's a real chance the Spurs go fishing early. The problem - and I've been saying it since the pre-season - is that the playoffs are played under a different set of rules, and the refs are much more likely to swallow their whistles than blow them.

The Grizz played physical as . When the refs blew whistles, the Spurs were obviously better. When they didn't, Memphis was able to ugly up the games and make it close.

Houston is going to be a challenge. But nobody benefits as much from the different calls in the playoffs as Memphis.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

The Grizz played physical as . When the refs blew whistles, the Spurs were obviously better. When they didn't, Memphis was able to ugly up the games and make it close.

Houston is going to be a challenge. But nobody benefits as much from the different calls in the playoffs as Memphis.

This.

Not saying there was bias toward either team but the refs swallowed their whistles for blatant pushing, holding and shoving at the rim, yet called the most minimal contact on the perimeter, which is horrible. Either let them play hard and not gift 3FTs for breathing on a perimeter player or call the pushing in the low block too ( in which case Gasol and Randolph would have fouled out by the 2nd quarter of each game tbh).