Matching is a tough call. In this tight free agent market (especially so for restricted free agents), I was hoping the Spurs could get away with paying KA about half that amount of guaranteed money. As it is, you can make a case either way. And it really depends on a handful of variables, some of which may be unanswerable as it stands.
-Is Murray viewed as the long-term answer at point guard who will get his MPG bumped up to ~30 this coming season? If so, Kyle isn't a good fit next to him. In today's NBA, it's difficult to get away with multiple hesitant shooters on the court at the same time, particularly hesitant shooters with slow releases.
-Do the Spurs see White leapfrogging Murray as the future point guard? If so, I actually really like Kyle next to White. Kyle at his best needs the ball in his hands and White appears to have the ability to seamlessly move off the ball when it's needed.
-Is the situation with Uncle Dennis's nephew salvageable? If so, that'd make it easier to not match Kyle's offersheet. If not and nephew's situation is going to drag into the season, you need Kyle as an above average player who can soak up minutes, especially since the signings of Belinelli and Gay tell me the Spurs don't view this as a rebuilding year.
-If nephew is going to be traded, do the Spurs foresee ultimately getting a package involving Brandon Ingram in return? If so, I view Kyle as a really bad fit next to Ingram. Their strengths and weaknesses don't align well at all. On the other hand, if the Spurs see themselves getting a Covington and Saric package, Kyle fits pretty well with those two players.
I'm confident Pop and RC can make the right decision based on how they see the next year or two unfolding. From our vantage point, this decision will give us a hint on what's to come.