2020 blue wave

[David Hogg]

Trump gonna win because Pollo Loco is open and traffic jams have returned :lmao


One thing is for damn sure, polls in June are a much better predictor of a presidential race than whether or not El Pollo Loco is able to sell all of its chicken before 7pm :lol
:lmao

[Will Hunting]

TSA checkpoint numbers are actually a decent indicator of economic activity, and they show that the economy isn’t anywhere near where it was.

There were 2.4 million average daily passengers in May 2019, while the average for May 2020 was 277k. That’s up from the April 2020 average of 109k, so it’s possible we already hit the bottom, but it still means that air travel is literally 10% of what it was a year ago. You’d have to be a completely delusional Trumptard to think the economy is storming back at some amazing pace right now.

[Reck]

Man, you can tell even the most ardent Trump supporters are feeling a little shaky about this whole thing.

Last night you had Darrin praying the protesters and looters would turn off voters and vote for Trump. And now you have rtm trying to justify this by saying shit are opening up y’all.

[DMC]

TSA checkpoint numbers are actually a decent indicator of economic activity, and they show that the economy isn’t anywhere near where it was.

There were 2.4 million average daily passengers in May 2019, while the average for May 2020 was 277k. That’s up from the April 2020 average of 109k, so it’s possible we already hit the bottom, but it still means that air travel is literally 10% of what it was a year ago. You’d have to be a completely delusional Trumptard to think the economy is storming back at some amazing pace right now.

Industrial glass supply companies will be making a killing for a while though.

[DMC]

Man, you can tell even the most ardent Trump supporters are feeling a little shaky about this whole thing.

Last night you had Darrin praying the protesters and looters would turn off voters and vote for Trump. And now you have rtm trying to justify this by saying shit are opening up y’all.

You don't seem to have a very well tuned receiver. This is well known already.

[Reck]

You don't seem to have a very well tuned receiver. This is well known already.

Read the room, inspector gadget.

[DMC]

Read the room, inspector gadget.

OK Gandalf the Gay

[Reck]

OK Gandalf the Gay

It's like you never grew up from the teenage phase. :lol

50 years old and still trying to be funny with decades old shit.

[ElNono]

TSA checkpoint numbers are actually a decent indicator of economic activity, and they show that the economy isn’t anywhere near where it was.

There were 2.4 million average daily passengers in May 2019, while the average for May 2020 was 277k. That’s up from the April 2020 average of 109k, so it’s possible we already hit the bottom, but it still means that air travel is literally 10% of what it was a year ago. You’d have to be a completely delusional Trumptard to think the economy is storming back at some amazing pace right now.

Yeah, but how's Pollo Loco doing?

[Will Hunting]

New poll has Greenfield up 2 points on Ernst. Imo this is how the senate races should be classified as of now, with all the uncertainty there’s more undecided races than we typically see (bold means flipping from D to R):

Seats that have a 75%+ chance of flipping (unlikely to change without something extraordinary):
Alabama
Colorado

Seats that have a 55-74% chance of flipping (more likely than not but could still swing):
Arizona
Maine

Seats that have a 45-54% chance of flipping (toss ups):
Montana
North Carolina

Seats with a 25-44% chance of flipping (uphill battle but very much in play):
Iowa
Georgia (Special Election)

Seats with an 11-24% chance of flipping (unlikely but wouldn’t be crazy):
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan

Seats with a 1%-10% chance (complete dark horse but not impossible):
South Carolina
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Georgia (Purdue seat)
Texas

Sears with a <1% chance:
Everything else

[David Hogg]

https://twitter.com/benjaminpdixon/status/1268750660805300225?s=21

[boutons_deux]

https://twitter.com/benjaminpdixon/status/1268750660805300225?s=21

yep, Dems are nothing but placeholders until the next Repug autocrat is elected and, next time, an autocart smart enough to finish off America, into the oligarchy's unchallengeable Golden Goose.

[RandomGuy]

New poll has Greenfield up 2 points on Ernst. Imo this is how the senate races should be classified as of now, with all the uncertainty there’s more undecided races than we typically see (bold means flipping from D to R):

Seats that have a 75%+ chance of flipping (unlikely to change without something extraordinary):
Alabama
Colorado

Seats that have a 55-74% chance of flipping (more likely than not but could still swing):
Arizona
Maine

Seats that have a 45-54% chance of flipping (toss ups):
Montana
North Carolina

Seats with a 25-44% chance of flipping (uphill battle but very much in play):
Iowa
Georgia (Special Election)

Seats with an 11-24% chance of flipping (unlikely but wouldn’t be crazy):
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan

Seats with a 1%-10% chance (complete dark horse but not impossible):
South Carolina
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Georgia (Purdue seat)
Texas

Sears with a <1% chance:
Everything else

So given this estimation, most likely outcome, given some tentative assumptions:

Republicans have 8 seats (7.8)
Democrats have 6 seats (6.2)

Puts it at 50-50, with the VP making a whole fuckload of deciding votes.

[Spurminator]

It's pretty incredible that we're even talking about the prospect of the Senate flipping considering how the map looked 2 or 3 years ago.

[RandomGuy]

It's pretty incredible that we're even talking about the prospect of the Senate flipping considering how the map looked 2 or 3 years ago.

Pains me to admit it, but Graham was right in his admission about the consequences of Trump's election.

Fuck the Republican party. RIP. Welcome to the Trump party, asshats, because that is what they have become.

[baseline bum]

It's pretty incredible that we're even talking about the prospect of the Senate flipping considering how the map looked 2 or 3 years ago.

It's pretty incredible that we'd need a wave election after 110k+ dead of a virus the president ignored for two months, 13.3% unemployment, and the suspension of the first amendment to just maybe get to 50/50 in the senate.

[boutons_deux]

https://images.dailykos.com/images/813727/large/ScreenShot2020-06-04at8.52.36AM.png?1591285986

[RandomGuy]

It's pretty incredible that we'd need a wave election after 110k+ dead of a virus the president ignored for two months, 13.3% unemployment, and the suspension of the first amendment to just maybe get to 50/50 in the senate.

One has to wonder how much this is getting baked in.

Trump’s Standing In The Polls Has Worsened
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/trumps-standing-in-the-polls-has-worsened/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

He is approaching a nadir of popularity a few months before the election.

The huge kicker is the generic ballot poll gap, 8.4% with momentum for a widening.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The wider that gap, the larger the Democratic majority is in both houses, and it is a pretty clear bellweather for the executive branch.

[RandomGuy]

https://images.dailykos.com/images/813727/large/ScreenShot2020-06-04at8.52.36AM.png?1591285986

Pretty much what a wave election will look like, i.e. all toss up states going Democrat. Georgia as a toss up, along with Texas, should be worrysome to the Trump party.

[TSA]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1270525860907540482

[ElNono]

Pretty much what a wave election will look like, i.e. all toss up states going Democrat. Georgia as a toss up, along with Texas, should be worrysome to the Trump party.

Now adjust for voter suppresion

[Will Hunting]

Yesterday’s polls had Greenfield up 3 points on Ernst and McGrath up 1 point on Cocaine Mitch. I still think the later is a pipe dream but the Greenfield/Ernst race is clearly in play.

[Will Hunting]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1270525860907540482
You’re saying West Virginia is going to vote Republican come election time? This changes everything!

[RandomGuy]

Now adjust for voter suppresion

That only goes so far. Fascist party has been doing that as long as they have had power in most places, taking over from the Democrats when the southern racists switched parties.

That is adjusted, in other words. A large enough wave will overwhelm even that. Think of the normal suppression efforts as akin to a dam.

[RandomGuy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1270525860907540482

WV going Republican? Even boutons knows that.

You could be sitting around with your thumb up your ass.

[Trill Clinton]

It's like you never grew up from the teenage phase. :lol

50 years old and still trying to be funny with decades old shit.

I swear. Dude is mad creepy.

https://memeguy.com/photos/images/mrw-i-walk-back-into-my-old-high-school-45175.gif

[RandomGuy]

https://images.dailykos.com/images/813727/large/ScreenShot2020-06-04at8.52.36AM.png?1591285986

Beginning to think that GA goes blue, riding a wave of anti-Trump angst. Hell, the kinds of anger that are driving these protests are probably even moving the needle in TX.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-may-won-democratic-presidential-candidate-first-time-44-years-poll-shows-1509360

Texas hasn't gone blue during a presidential election since former President Jimmy Carter, but it's possible that could change in November as polls show President Donald Trump losing the Republican hold on the state.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday showed Trump and Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden neck and neck in the race for Texas. Trump, with 44 percent, had a slim lead over Biden, who received 43 percent, an advantage that was well within the margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
---------------------------------------------


Us Texas Dems are prepping to build on the infrastructure that sprang up in 2018. Lots of brainstorming around COVID restrictions, and some interesting discussions on getting registration and turn out up. Floyd protests definitely has a lot of fold riled up.

[RandomGuy]

I swear. Dude is mad creepy.

https://memeguy.com/photos/images/mrw-i-walk-back-into-my-old-high-school-45175.gif

https://www.270towin.com/

The only thing I did to the default map they have set up (lots of toss up states) is see what happens if Texas goes blue.

The result:
Democratic candidate wins in your scenario. No combinations remain for Republicans to win.

Democrat 270------------------166 Republican

Texas, as one state puts the Democratic nominee over. Even if the fascist party wins every other swing state, they lose.


As is, in a true wav election the wave party tends to get most of the swing states.
Dems get all swings+Texas
Democrat 371----------------166 Republican

I think that is the "best case" scenario, and unlikely.
Reality will probably be a bit less than what boutons has posted.

[Reck]

He's losing support from his core base of evangelicals and catholics per a Public Religion Research Institute.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html

Fucking huge if this holds all the way to November. According to analysis and polls conducted since 2016, the evangelical voting population has actually shrinked by 2 percent.


So White Evangelicals will pull a Susan Collins and have serious concerns before voting for our Dear Leader anyways.


You’re dreaming if you think DJT is getting only 62% of the evangelical vote. You could run a child molester who was caught ass raping an 8 year old child with special needs on videotape, and the religious right would still give him 80+% support as long as he has an R next to his name.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/312572/trump-job-approval-slides.aspx

This latest slip in approval matchest my other poll conducted about his support among catholics and Christian evangelicals. Down to 85% approval among republicans and 39% approval overall.

Welcome to Carter and Bush level bad.

[DMX7]

https://images.dailykos.com/images/813727/large/ScreenShot2020-06-04at8.52.36AM.png?1591285986

This is how I see it playing out except I think maybe Biden wins Ohio and losses Florida.

[Will Hunting]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/312572/trump-job-approval-slides.aspx

This latest slip in approval matchest my other poll conducted about his support among catholics and Christian evangelicals. Down to 85% approval among republicans and 39% approval overall.

Welcome to Carter and Bush level bad.
I just don’t see it. Once Fox News starts its round-the-clock pre-election stories about how Joe Biden is a communist who used to assist pregnant women in performing 3rd trimester coathanger abortions pre Roe v. Wade, the Bible thumpers will get spooked back into Trumpland.

[Will Hunting]

This is how I see it playing out except I think maybe Biden wins Ohio and losses Florida.
I don’t see him winning Georgia. There’s going to need to be changes in Georgia at the gubernatorial level before it becomes viable in general election. You can bet the “problems” Atlanta area polling locations had yesterday are going to be a lot worse come Election Day.

North Carolina will be a good litmus test with a Democratic Governor this time around who isn’t going to intentionally create 12 hour lines in Greensboro.

[Spurtacular]

https://images.dailykos.com/images/813727/large/ScreenShot2020-06-04at8.52.36AM.png?1591285986

:lol

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Video/201608/n_maddow_dlandslide_160809.jpg

[DMX7]

I just don’t see it. Once Fox News starts its round-the-clock pre-election stories about how Joe Biden is a communist who used to assist pregnant women in performing 3rd trimester coathanger abortions pre Roe v. Wade, the Bible thumpers will get spooked back into Trumpland.

I didn't say he'd win georgia, georgia is toss-up on that map as it should be.

[Will Hunting]

November is a LOOOOOOOONG time from now. Did you think that in the first few days of JUNE, the Dow would be over 26K? Did you think that (in the first days of June) there would be CROWDS of people in the streets all over the US, and NO ONE is hyperventilating about social distancing (when it suits their agenda - chaos)?

Traffic is almost back to normal now - people are out and about, and the restaurants are not up to speed. Yesterday, my local Pollo Tropical closed at 7pm (rush dinner hour) from selling out all their chicken earlier.
Florida COVID-19 cases hitting new high for 3 days running:
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/13/florida-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-more-2500-third-single-day-record-in-a-row/

Maybe El Pollo Loco should have waited a bit longer to open :lol

[ElNono]

Florida COVID-19 cases hitting new high for 3 days running:
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/13/florida-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-more-2500-third-single-day-record-in-a-row/

Maybe El Pollo Loco should have waited a bit longer to open :lol

:lol

Maybe they can pray it away, tbh... can't think of a god that would deny his flock a serving of El Pollo Loco...

[boutons_deux]

Trump - Biden TIE in TX and AR

MI is no longer considered a battleground state because Biden is so far ahead.

[boutons_deux]

Trump’s Campaign Is Bragging About Being Tied With Biden In Arkansas

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/06/14/trump-arkansas.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+politicususa%2FfJAl+%28Politi cus+USA+%29 (https://www.politicususa.com/2020/06/14/trump-arkansas.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+politicususa%2FfJAl+%28Politi cus+USA+%29)

:lol

[baseline bum]

Florida COVID-19 cases hitting new high for 3 days running:
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/13/florida-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-more-2500-third-single-day-record-in-a-row/

Maybe El Pollo Loco should have waited a bit longer to open :lol

Florida hospitals gonna be sold out of bodybags by 7PM next?

[Will Hunting]

Florida hospitals gonna be sold out of bodybags by 7PM next?
Hopefully a bunch of retired boomer conservatives die off.

Would be great if by some miracle Little Marcos senate seat was in play in 2022.

[Reck]

Hopefully a bunch of retired boomer conservatives die off.

Would be great if by some miracle Little Marcos senate seat was in play in 2022.

Why do conservatives even like little Marco? Guess they like their midget porn down in Florida. Huge head, tiny body frame. Calling him a midget is a disservice to the actual midget community actually.

[Will Hunting]

Why do conservatives even like little Marco? Guess they like their midget porn down in Florida. Huge head, tiny body frame. Calling him a midget is a disservice to the actual midget community actually.
I don’t think conservatives necessarily like him that much, but a lot of moderate/liberal Hispanics in Florida like him because he’s friendly on immigration which is why he wins so easily (he also ran in 2010 and 2016, two very favorable years for Republicans). He also has a couple Jewish oligarchs who’ve bankrolled his political career.

The GOP is very good at taking senators they have in purple/blue states and making them folk heroes who are worshipped within their own state (Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Chuck Grassley, Little Marco, etc). Fortunately the shine has worn off the first two but when Dems get senators elected in purple/red states it’s usually 2 terms max before they’re gone.

[rmt]

Florida COVID-19 cases hitting new high for 3 days running:
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/13/florida-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-more-2500-third-single-day-record-in-a-row/

Maybe El Pollo Loco should have waited a bit longer to open :lol

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243361796.html

In Miami-Dade, COVID hospitalizations fall while new cases surge.

IMO, more TESTING - the important stat is HOSPITALIZATIONS. Testing is free for all over 18 - phone a number to pre-register and next day, drive through C. B. Smith Park - manned by soldiers directing car with one health care worker in double gloves, mask and shield sticks her hand into half rolled down car window. She sticks swab up your nose and counts for 5 seconds. And you drive out of park.

[Reck]

:lol Susan Collins

Today's vote against the LGBTQ++ he cast (In vain) is just another remainder of what a fuck up she is as a senator. Her voting to confirm him was a gift for us after all.

[Will Hunting]

:lol Susan Collins

Today's vote against the LGBTQ++ he cast (In vain) is just another remainder of what a fuck up she is as a senator. Her voting to confirm him was a gift for us after all.
She should have taken the favor Manchin did for her by making it so she could vote against him. Voting for him and then voting against impeachment were fuck ups by her - without those two votes I think she’d be winning in Maine by 10+%

Before Andy or anyone else equally retarded has some autistic response about how there’s no way she’d be up by that much, she won Maine by over 20% in 2008, a year when Democrats picked up 8 seats all over the country. She was worshipped in Maine by both parties before the Kavanaugh vote.

[Reck]

1272518417124413440

This looks like trouble for the GOP.

Then again, they got this covered. Kemp will make sure to close 90% of the polling station to offset turnout in November.

[Will Hunting]

1272518417124413440

This looks like trouble for the GOP.

Then again, they got this covered. Kemp will make sure to close 90% of the polling station to offset turnout in November.
This is why I think NC is in play...a Democratic Governor changes everything.

FTR, the Democratic Governors in states like NC shouldn’t just play fair, they should employ all of the dirty tricks Republican governors use. Make it so rural voters have to drive 100+ miles to vote while there’s a voting both in every corner in urban areas. It’s time to play just as dirty as the other side does.

[RandomGuy]

1272518417124413440

This looks like trouble for the GOP.

Then again, they got this covered. Kemp will make sure to close 90% of the polling station to offset turnout in November.

That will put it over the top, IMO.

[RandomGuy]

Trump - Biden TIE in TX and AR

MI is no longer considered a battleground state because Biden is so far ahead.

Did\'n't know how badly Trump was losing michegan. 16 points is a blowout, and yeah, it isn't a battleground state.

[boutons_deux]

Even Repug-in-house pollster Rasmussen :lol told Trash :lol is way down nationally :lol

[RandomGuy]

:lol

https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Video/201608/n_maddow_dlandslide_160809.jpg

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

Less and less red, more brown and blue.

That is the current default map.

This is what happens when MOST of the swing states electoral votes go Republican:

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/RopZm

This is unlikely in a wave year.

This is what happens in a huge wave year, highly unlikely it will be that bad for the fascists.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/npROv

Reality will be somewhere in between. Fewer and fewer roads to re-election for Trump either way.

[Will Hunting]

:lol there’s no way these numbers hold up through Election Day, but the polls added on fivethirtyeight today are ridiculously bad for Trump. They show Biden up 10 points in Florida, 13+ in Michigan, Biden up 2 points in GA, and Purdue’s seat in GA as a toss-up.

[boutons_deux]

what can Trash and the Repugs do?

Trash is Trash, incapable of doing anything except make his case worse

Repugs? won't counter Trash

200K dead and 30M unemployed on 3 Nov

I read an article that said Trash's "october surprise" would a bullied, sycophantic FDA approving a C19 vaccine, as if Trash would have had anything to do with it.

Trash's obese carcass is cooked.

There simply not enough time to test a vaccine on 1000s of people.

And what are the ethics of vaccinating 1000s of people and then infecting them with a pathogen as nasty as C19?

[Reck]

:lol there’s no way these numbers hold up through Election Day, but the polls added on fivethirtyeight today are ridiculously bad for Trump. They show Biden up 10 points in Florida, 13+ in Michigan, Biden up 2 points in GA, and Purdue’s seat in GA as a toss-up.

Crazy how Wisconsin has gotten completely away from Trump.

Dude had a 5 point lead there on average just last month or so. Now it has flipped around to a Biden+4.

I'm not going to delude myself thinking Biden has a chance in Georgia, Texas, Ohio and even Florida to an extent.

[ElNono]

:lol there’s no way these numbers hold up through Election Day, but the polls added on fivethirtyeight today are ridiculously bad for Trump. They show Biden up 10 points in Florida, 13+ in Michigan, Biden up 2 points in GA, and Purdue’s seat in GA as a toss-up.

:lol there's still time for old Joe to fumble this though... unless the campaign hides him again all the way to November

[Reck]

:lol there's still time for old Joe to fumble this though... unless the campaign hides him again all the way to November

More in the other direction me thinks. Just let Trump be Trump essentially.

Just this morning he was giving a press conference on police reform and he was doing ok for Trump but than he went off the rails about Obama and Biden for some reason and then went on a 20 minute rambling about curing AIDS. :lol

[Will Hunting]

Crazy how Wisconsin has gotten completely away from Trump.

Dude had a 5 point lead there on average just last month or so. Now it has flipped around to a Biden+4.

I'm not going to delude myself thinking Biden has a chance in Georgia, Texas, Ohio and even Florida to an extent.
He has a chance in Florida but it would need to be a favorable climate for the Dems politically. Rest assured De Santis will create lines as long as possible in Broward county.

Iowa is the state the DNC should be dumping money into. Trump isn’t as popular there as he is in Ohio and My gut feeling is the party that wins the Iowa senate race will win the senate.

[Will Hunting]

:lol there's still time for old Joe to fumble this though... unless the campaign hides him again all the way to November
COVID-19 was a best case scenario for Jim Crow Joe, it allowed him to sleep 16 hours a day and no one would care.

Im still worried about how quickly he’s going to fuck up once he’s out campaigning 12+ hours a day and can’t live on an old man schedule.

[ElNono]

More in the other direction me thinks. Just let Trump be Trump essentially.

Just this morning he was giving a press conference on police reform and he was doing ok for Trump but than he went off the rails about Obama and Biden for some reason and then went on a 20 minute rambling about curing AIDS. :lol

I get the desperation of getting rid of this guy, but it's frankly pathetic you're genuinely scared shitless of your own candidate opening his mouth and saying what he thinks, tbh...

And sorry, but the fact that he's running against what basically amounts the lowest bar ever doesn't really justifies that, IMO.

[Will Hunting]

I get the desperation of getting rid of this guy, but it's frankly pathetic you're genuinely scared shitless of your own candidate opening his mouth and saying what he thinks, tbh...

And sorry, but the fact that he's running against what basically amounts the lowest bar ever doesn't really justifies that, IMO.
:lol remember 2008 when Dems were screaming about how “irresponsible” it was to nominate John McCain because he was “too old”

2008 John McCain is a fucking newborn baby compared 2020 Jim Crow Joe

[Reck]

I get the desperation of getting rid of this guy, but it's frankly pathetic you're genuinely scared shitless of your own candidate opening his mouth and saying what he thinks, tbh...

And sorry, but the fact that he's running against what basically amounts the lowest bar ever doesn't really justifies that, IMO.

Im talking about Trump this morning.

I’m not one of the people who put too much stock into what Biden might say or not. I don’t think that will factor in much. Biden at a bare minimum is senile. Everyone knows that.

You take him or leave him.

[ElNono]

:lol remember 2008 when Dems were screaming about how “irresponsible” it was to nominate John McCain because he was “too old”

2008 John McCain is a fucking newborn baby compared 2020 Jim Crow Joe

Trump is another example of senile old people, tbh... Shillary was too. Need to put an upper cap on candidates, tbh... we have a floor, need to put a ceiling. 60, 65 tops.

[RandomGuy]

:lol there’s no way these numbers hold up through Election Day, but the polls added on fivethirtyeight today are ridiculously bad for Trump. They show Biden up 10 points in Florida, 13+ in Michigan, Biden up 2 points in GA, and Purdue’s seat in GA as a toss-up.

GA and Florida going blue puts map into Democratic lock. All other narrow swing states could go red, and Trump still loses.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/XOK14.png

But this will be a blue wave year, so count on that margin just going further to Biden.

[ElNono]

Im talking about Trump this morning.

I’m not one of the people who put too much stock into what Biden might say or not. I don’t think that will factor in much. Biden at a bare minimum is senile. Everyone knows that.

You take him or leave him.

Sure, but I don't have to like that "you take him or leave him"...

You can't say you care about this country and then tell me the best option "at a bare minimum is senile" :lol

I'm not saying it's your fault, but if we have a system that distills a candidate like that, then we need to rethink that system.

[FrostKing]

2020 blue riot

[RandomGuy]

Im talking about Trump this morning.

I’m not one of the people who put too much stock into what Biden might say or not. I don’t think that will factor in much. Biden at a bare minimum is senile. Everyone knows that.

You take him or leave him.

I give it better than even odds he doesn't finish his first term. That will make the VP candidate waaaay more important.

Biden picks a woman, and that woman will be the first female president. A lot of women will understand that.

I expect the fascist party to go full in on the dogwhistle sexism just like they do for racism now. Trump won't be able to help himself.

[Will Hunting]

GA and Florida going blue puts map into Democratic lock. All other narrow swing states could go red, and Trump still loses.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/XOK14.png

But this will be a blue wave year, so count on that margin just going further to Biden.
Let’s not count our chickens before they’re hatched. Once Fox News takes the gloves off and starts calling Joe Biden a communist who wants to turn your first born children into Matrix-style human batteries for Planned Parenthood to sell, the retard vote in states like Florida and Pennsylvania will swing back and we’ll see a much closer race.

This could easily be another 2016 if the economy quickly recovers (or even appears to be quickly recovering) and if the Dems go overboard with the defund the police shit. The BLM movement has had a positive effect in the polls so far but it could easily morph into a train that runs off the tracks and scares suburban women into voting Republican again.

[FrostKing]

I give it better than even odds he doesn't finish his first term. That will make the VP candidate waaaay more important.

Biden picks a woman, and that woman will be the first female president. A lot of women will understand that.

I expect the fascist party to go full in on the dogwhistle sexism just like they do for racism now. Trump won't be able to help himself.
Someone loves their identity politics

[Will Hunting]

I give it better than even odds he doesn't finish his first term.
The fact you see this as a “no big deal” is what ENono is talking about. Why the fuck were the media, DNC and most Democratic leaders so nonchalant about nominating a candidate who has no chance at making it through 2 terms?

[RandomGuy]

The fact you see this as a “no big deal” is what ENono is talking about. Why the fuck were the media, DNC and most Democratic leaders so nonchalant about nominating a candidate who has no chance at making it through 2 terms?

Wasn't my first, or even second choice. Fucking moderates wanted another fucking middle of the road surrender to the conservatives, IMO.

It is what it is. Quite frankly, happy to go with him, he is on balance, a decent guy.

I would be willing to bet my commentary about his chances are probably being spoken quietly in the kinds of discussions one has out of the limelight.

[RandomGuy]

Let’s not count our chickens before they’re hatched. Once Fox News takes the gloves off and starts calling Joe Biden a communist who wants to turn your first born children into Matrix-style human batteries for Planned Parenthood to sell, the retard vote in states like Florida and Pennsylvania will swing back and we’ll see a much closer race.

This could easily be another 2016 if the economy quickly recovers (or even appears to be quickly recovering) and if the Dems go overboard with the defund the police shit. The BLM movement has had a positive effect in the polls so far but it could easily morph into a train that runs off the tracks and scares suburban women into voting Republican again.

Fox "news" reach shrinks daily. They aren't going to get any more traction than they are now.

Economy was already slowing down before this happened. Once the stimulus wears off, it will stay mired in a swamp, as that was the general momentum. This just gave that a big push.

I don't see a whole lot changing before November, other than Trumps approval reverting to the mean from its current low ebb. Interesting to see tho.

[Will Hunting]

Fox "news" reach shrinks daily. They aren't going to get any more traction than they are now.

Economy was already slowing down before this happened. Once the stimulus wears off, it will stay mired in a swamp, as that was the general momentum. This just gave that a big push.

I don't see a whole lot changing before November, other than Trumps approval reverting to the mean from its current low ebb. Interesting to see tho.
Yeah if the economy stays shitty, Trump is toast and the Dems have a good chance at taking the Senate. There’s no question about that imo. A V-shaped recovery is the only way Trump wins.

A state like Arizona is full of braindead Karen housewives though. If Fox starts peddling a stupid conspiracy theory about Jim Crow Joe, it’s going to stick with a lot of them once the Karens start talking about it at the regular PTA meeting.

[SnakeBoy]

I get the desperation of getting rid of this guy, but it's frankly pathetic you're genuinely scared shitless of your own candidate opening his mouth and saying what he thinks, tbh...

And sorry, but the fact that he's running against what basically amounts the lowest bar ever doesn't really justifies that, IMO.

Reck, and RG for that matter, don't care about the candidate or any particular policies. They're just scarred from their girl losing unexpectedly and are hoping to trigger da repugs the way they were triggered last time.

[baseline bum]

Yeah if the economy stays shitty, Trump is toast and the Dems have a good chance at taking the Senate. There’s no question about that imo. A V-shaped recovery is the only way Trump wins.

A state like Arizona is full of braindead Karen housewives though. If Fox starts peddling a stupid conspiracy theory about Jim Crow Joe, it’s going to stick with a lot of them once the Karens start talking about it at the regular PTA meeting.

Disagree. I bet Trump tries to push a UBI in September.

[vy65]

Eh. I'll be glass half-empty. 538 shows he's polling at around 40.0% approval. That's not close to his 36% approval on December 17, 2017. The worst development(s) in December 2017 related to the Mueller report--nothing close to a global pandemic, 110k+ Americans dead, the protests, etc...

If things were truly bad for Trump, wouldn't you expect the number to dip below 36%?

[spurraider21]

Eh. I'll be glass half-empty. 538 shows he's polling at around 40.0% approval. That's not close to his 36% approval on December 17, 2017. The worst development(s) in December 2017 related to the Mueller report--nothing close to a global pandemic, 110k+ Americans dead, the protests, etc...

If things were truly bad for Trump, wouldn't you expect the number to dip below 36%?
if the midterm results were reflective of that, it still bodes well

[Reck]

Reck, and RG for that matter, don't care about the candidate or any particular policies. They're just scarred from their girl losing unexpectedly and are hoping to trigger da repugs the way they were triggered last time.

Keep telling yourself that as you watch Trump losing ground in states he should be winning. :lol Losing Arizona and flirting with disaster in GA. Your guy.

[vy65]

Reck, and RG for that matter, don't care about the candidate or any particular policies. They're just scarred from their girl losing unexpectedly and are hoping to trigger da repugs the way they were triggered last time.

:lol this is such disingenuous bullshit. It's not like any Trump supporter is willing to defend his policies. Anytime I've asked for such, i.e., with respect to the COVID response, all I've gotten are deflection tornadoes of Hillary, Obama, etc... We're not talking about policy because team red doesn't want to have a conversation about policies (and yes, the posters here parrot conservative media, so it's a snapshot).

RG repeatedly said in this thread that Biden wasn't his first choice. But I sure as shit know he cares about the candidates policies and would be more than willing to have a conversation about them. I'm nearly positive Reck is the same way too. On the other hand, there is absolutely no willingness on the red side to call out Trump. It's slovenly cult devotion, and this post is a prime example of it.

[Will Hunting]

Eh. I'll be glass half-empty. 538 shows he's polling at around 40.0% approval. That's not close to his 36% approval on December 17, 2017. The worst development(s) in December 2017 related to the Mueller report--nothing close to a global pandemic, 110k+ Americans dead, the protests, etc...

If things were truly bad for Trump, wouldn't you expect the number to dip below 36%?
35-40% of this country would support Trump even if he was caught diddling an 8 year old boy. It’s doscouraging to see it stay above 40% but I definitely wouldn’t expect it to dip below 36%.

The other factor to consider is that in the middle of a crisis the president typically sees his approval rating skyrocket (ie GWB after 9/11). If Trump we’re handling COVID-19 with even a modicum of competency, his approval rating would be north of 50% imo.

[vy65]

35-40% of this country would support Trump even if he was caught diddling an 8 year old boy. It’s doscouraging to see it stay above 40% but I definitely wouldn’t expect it to dip below 36%.

The other factor to consider is that in the middle of a crisis the president typically sees his approval rating skyrocket (ie GWB after 9/11). If Trump we’re handling COVID-19 with even a modicum of competency, his approval rating would be north of 50% imo.

Hadn't considered the latter part, fair point.

[Will Hunting]

The other thing is today’s polls (if you believe them) in some ways are a new low for Trump even vs. December 17,2017. I can’t remember a poll at any point where he was ever down by over 10 points in Florida or 15 points in Michigan.

[RandomGuy]

Reck, and RG for that matter, don't care about the candidate or any particular policies. They're just scarred from their girl losing unexpectedly and are hoping to trigger da repugs the way they were triggered last time.

I don't think you could honestly represent someone elses views that you didn't agree with if someone pointed a gun to your head. Strawman to the last.

Don't care about Hillary, but I do care about the damage that Trumps corruption, incompetence, and venality have done to the country. That is really driving me crazy. Especially with dishonest people like you carrying water for an intellectually and morally bankrupt ideology.

[RandomGuy]

35-40% of this country would support Trump even if he was caught diddling an 8 year old boy. It’s doscouraging to see it stay above 40% but I definitely wouldn’t expect it to dip below 36%.

The other factor to consider is that in the middle of a crisis the president typically sees his approval rating skyrocket (ie GWB after 9/11). If Trump [were] handling COVID-19 with even a modicum of competency, his approval rating would be north of 50% imo.

Agreed.

He has a definite "floor" of cult members who will never abandon him, and worship him in the creepiest ways possible.

That isn't enough to win in November. He has lost errybody else.

[Spurtacular]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

Less and less red, more brown and blue.

That is the current default map.

This is what happens when MOST of the swing states electoral votes go Republican:

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/RopZm

This is unlikely in a wave year.

This is what happens in a huge wave year, highly unlikely it will be that bad for the fascists.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/npROv

Reality will be somewhere in between. Fewer and fewer roads to re-election for Trump either way.

You should apply for MSNBC.

[rmt]

The other thing is today’s polls (if you believe them) in some ways are a new low for Trump even vs. December 17,2017. I can’t remember a poll at any point where he was ever down by over 10 points in Florida or 15 points in Michigan.

I don't know about Michigan, but I don't believe any poll that has Trump down 10 points in Florida.

[SnakeBoy]

I don't think you could honestly represent someone elses views that you didn't agree with if someone pointed a gun to your head. Strawman to the last.

Don't care about Hillary, but I do care about the damage that Trumps corruption, incompetence, and venality have done to the country. That is really driving me crazy. Especially with dishonest people like you carrying water for an intellectually and morally bankrupt ideology.

Did Trump collude with Russia to steal the election?

[Reck]

:lol this is such disingenuous bullshit. It's not like any Trump supporter is willing to defend his policies. Anytime I've asked for such, i.e., with respect to the COVID response, all I've gotten are deflection tornadoes of Hillary, Obama, etc... We're not talking about policy because team red doesn't want to have a conversation about policies (and yes, the posters here parrot conservative media, so it's a snapshot).

RG repeatedly said in this thread that Biden wasn't his first choice. But I sure as shit know he cares about the candidates policies and would be more than willing to have a conversation about them. I'm nearly positive Reck is the same way too. On the other hand, there is absolutely no willingness on the red side to call out Trump. It's slovenly cult devotion, and this post is a prime example of it.


Did Trump collude with Russia to steal the election?

Case and point.

[Will Hunting]

I don't know about Michigan, but I don't believe any poll that has Trump down 10 points in Florida.
I think it ebbs and flows. Right now is a low point. I have every expectation that come election time Florida will be within a 2% margin regardless of who wins. IIRC it’s been within 2% in every election since 2000 other than 2004.

[Reck]

I think it ebbs and flows. Right now is a low point. I have every expectation that come election time Florida will be within a 2% margin regardless of who wins. IIRC it’s been within 2% in every election since 2000 other than 2004.

100k votes. Roughly what Hillary lost it by.

I think by default he should do better than her so maybe the 100k deficit becomes 50k. That’s a much better starting point to try to overcome.

[Will Hunting]

100k votes. Roughly what Hillary lost it by.

I think by default he should do better than her so maybe the 100k deficit becomes 50k. That’s a much better starting point to try to overcome.
The Republicans in Florida love Trump, his support in the panhandle alone is probably enough to make it close. Desantis is also a scumbag who’s going to fuck with voting in southeast Florida.

People also think that the felons being able to vote is going to swing things a lot and it’s not clear that it will. The white felons in florida who can now vote are predominantly of the cousin fucking white trash variety and they’ll go for Trump.

It’s not a guarantee Biden loses or anything, but it’s going to be a razor thin state like it always is.

[SnakeBoy]

Case and point.

:lol not surprising you missed the point

:cry POOOOOTIN! :cry
:cry Let's have an honest discussion about Trump :cry

It's funny

[Reck]

:lol not surprising you missed the point

:cry POOOOOTIN! :cry
:cry Let's have an honest discussion about Trump :cry

It's funny

So emotional. Take a glass of water.

[RandomGuy]

I don't know about Michigan, but I don't believe any poll that has Trump down 10 points in Florida.


Confirmation bias
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms or support one's prior personal beliefs or values.[1] It is an important type of cognitive bias that has a significant effect on the proper functioning of society by distorting evidence-based decision-making. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. For example, a person may cherry-pick empirical data that supports one's belief, ignoring the remainder of the data that is not supportive. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Sokay. Reality doesn't care about your fee fees.

[RandomGuy]

Did Trump collude with Russia to steal the election?

His campaign manager gave internal polling data to a known russian intelligence operative. Russia being a country with an active and ongoing disinformation campaign, that ironically you yourself got suckered by your white millenials fleeing the democratic party thread.

He called publicly for Russian interference, and it is almost certain that he knew about the meeting with the Russian lawyer for dirt on Hillary.

Not enough evidence to conclusively prove that"Trump colluded", but I think it more than a remote possibility.

Russia itself had a decided preference, and acted on that preference.

[RandomGuy]

Vy65: Trump supporters are disingenuous, never call him out, and simply deflect
Snakeboy: Deflects

Case and point.

:lmao

[rmt]

The Republicans in Florida love Trump, his support in the panhandle alone is probably enough to make it close. Desantis is also a scumbag who’s going to fuck with voting in southeast Florida.

People also think that the felons being able to vote is going to swing things a lot and it’s not clear that it will. The white felons in florida who can now vote are predominantly of the cousin fucking white trash variety and they’ll go for Trump.

It’s not a guarantee Biden loses or anything, but it’s going to be a razor thin state like it always is.

No, the scumbag was the other choice - Gillum - found drunk/doped in hotel room with male escort. DeSantis, despite Florida having a very large number of seniors/nursing homes/retirees, kept the Covid death rate very low with his policies. Maybe you should go disparage the other scumbag, Cuomo, who didn't. And if there's messing with the voting in Southeast Florida, it'll be Broward County and their suspect voting shenanigans that interfere.

[Reck]

No, the scumbag was the other choice - Gillum - found drunk/doped in hotel room with male escort. DeSantis, despite Florida having a very large number of seniors/nursing homes/retirees, kept the Covid death rate very low with his policies. Maybe you should go disparage the other scumbag, Cuomo, who didn't. And if there's messing with the voting in Southeast Florida, it'll be Broward County and their suspect voting shenanigans that interfere.

How is that working out now?

[rmt]

How is that working out now?

It's working out just fine - look at 7 day average trend line (sorry I can't pick up chart) on daily fatalities (last chart) - equal or better than trend line going back to April 7th and that's with the state opening up.

Deaths

The chart below tracks the daily reported deaths and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through June 17th.

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/15/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

[Reck]

It's working out just fine - look at 7 day average trend line (sorry I can't pick up chart) on daily fatalities (last chart) - equal or better than trend line going back to April 7th and that's with the state opening up.

Deaths

The chart below tracks the daily reported deaths and provides a 7-day average trend line based on cases reported by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) through June 17th.

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/15/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

No, its not. lol

[rmt]

No, its not. lol

What, you don't see the June 17th data hovering just above that slight line marked 30 - the same height as it was on April 7th? And that most of that time in between those two dates is higher than it is on June 17th?

[Reck]

What, you don't see the June 17th data hovering just above that slight line marked 30 - the same height as it was on April 7th? And that most of that time in between those two dates is higher than it is on June 17th?

No, I'm saying Florida is seeing an increase in case numbers. Well over 2000 just yesterday.

[rmt]

No, I'm saying Florida is seeing an increase in case numbers. Well over 2000 just yesterday.

Case numbers just mean more testing which is widely accessible now - I've described how easy and quick it is now (in Miami/Broward) in a post recently. Of course, if there's more testing, there'll be more cases - doesn't necessarily translate to increase in hospitalization rate or death rate. And expect more of cases/hospitalizations/deaths as the state opens up.

You know the whole point of the shutdown was to not overwhelm the hospital system and I don't think it's anywhere near that.

[ElNono]

No, the scumbag was the other choice - Gillum - found drunk/doped in hotel room with male escort. DeSantis, despite Florida having a very large number of seniors/nursing homes/retirees, kept the Covid death rate very low with his policies. Maybe you should go disparage the other scumbag, Cuomo, who didn't. And if there's messing with the voting in Southeast Florida, it'll be Broward County and their suspect voting shenanigans that interfere.

I mean Florida is top 10 in the nation in number of covid deaths. Adjusted per capita (against states like California), they're even higher, so I don't know where this notion of very low death rate comes from...

[rmt]

I mean Florida is top 10 in the nation in number of covid deaths. Adjusted per capita (against states like California), they're even higher, so I don't know where this notion of very low death rate comes from...

Florida has 1 more death per capita than California. Florida has the 2nd highest percentage (20.5%) of population 65 or older. California, otoh, has the 45th lowest percentage (14.3%) of population 65 and older.

Death rates per capita as of 6/17:
California 13
Florida 14
Rhode Island 82
Massachusetts 111
Connecticut 118
New Jersey 144
New York 159

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/


States Ranked by Percent of Population Age 65 or Older, 2018

Rank State Total Resident Population (thousands) Population Ages 65+ (thousands) Population Ages 65+ (percent)
1 Maine 1,338 276 20.6
2 Florida 21,299 4,358 20.5
3 West Virginia 1,806 360 19.9
4 Vermont 626 121 19.4
5 Delaware 967 181 18.7
6 Montana 1,062 199 18.7
7 Hawaii 1,420 261 18.4
8 Pennsylvania 12,807 2,336 18.2
9 New Hampshire 1,356 246 18.1
10 South Carolina 5,084 900 17.7
11 Oregon 4,191 739 17.6
12 Arizona 7,172 1,258 17.5
12 New Mexico 2,095 366 17.5
14 Connecticut 3,573 615 17.2
14 Michigan 9,996 1,717 17.2
14 Rhode Island 1,057 182 17.2
17 Iowa 3,156 540 17.1
17 Ohio 11,689 1,995 17.1
19 Arkansas 3,014 512 17.0
19 Wisconsin 5,814 985 17.0
21 Alabama 4,888 827 16.9
21 Missouri 6,126 1,034 16.9
23 South Dakota 882 147 16.6
24 Massachusetts 6,902 1,139 16.5
24 Wyoming 578 95 16.5
26 Kentucky 4,468 731 16.4
26 New York 19,542 3,214 16.4
26 Tennessee 6,770 1,110 16.4
29 North Carolina 10,384 1,689 16.3
30 New Jersey 8,909 1,439 16.1
31 Idaho 1,754 278 15.9
31 Kansas 2,912 462 15.9
31 Minnesota 5,611 890 15.9
31 Mississippi 2,987 474 15.9
35 Indiana 6,692 1,055 15.8
36 Nebraska 1,929 304 15.7
36 Nevada 3,034 476 15.7
36 Oklahoma 3,943 620 15.7
39 Illinois 12,741 1,993 15.6
40 Louisiana 4,660 718 15.4
40 Maryland 6,043 931 15.4
40 Virginia 8,518 1,315 15.4
40 Washington 7,536 1,164 15.4
44 North Dakota 760 117 15.3
45 California 39,557 5,669 14.3
46 Colorado 5,696 808 14.2
47 Georgia 10,519 1,460 13.9
48 Texas 28,702 3,602 12.6
49 Alaska 737 87 11.8
50 Utah 3,161 350 11.1

https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/

[rmt]

I mean Florida is top 10 in the nation in number of covid deaths. Adjusted per capita (against states like California), they're even higher, so I don't know where this notion of very low death rate comes from...

And 3rd in total population - c'mon, don't be disingenuous - every single statement is true but misleading together - you really don't know where this NOTION comes from? - see the stats in my post above.

[RandomGuy]

Case numbers just mean more testing which is widely accessible now - I've described how easy and quick it is now (in Miami/Broward) in a post recently. Of course, if there's more testing, there'll be more cases - doesn't necessarily translate to increase in hospitalization rate or death rate. And expect more of cases/hospitalizations/deaths as the state opens up.

You know the whole point of the shutdown was to not overwhelm the hospital system and I don't think it's anywhere near that.

Case numbers have to be looked at in conjunction with overall positive rate. More testing will find more positives, but it is ultimately the rate that is important.

If your positive rate is going up, then the infection is indeed spreading.

[Reck]

Case numbers have to be looked at in conjunction with overall positive rate. More testing will find more positives, but it is ultimately the rate that is important.

If your positive rate is going up, then the infection is indeed spreading.

The cases going up which is lining up with when they decided to open up is no coincidence. rtm has full blinders on.

Would hate to see her catch it out of hubris. Being in her 60s and all.

[RandomGuy]

You know the whole point of the shutdown was to not overwhelm the hospital system and I don't think it's anywhere near that.

Takes a few weeks to manifest itself. It wont' take much to swamp ICU capacity, and don't confuse "beds" with "available beds" and "useful beds". NICU beds, or psych beds are useless when and adult needs oxygen and a respirator, and are often lumped into an aggregate "hospital bed" count.

NY managed to head off having their system overwhelmed and that barely, with everbody sheltering as much as possible.

What happens when idiots start slobbering on beer glasses in crowded bars and restaurants because fucktarded assholes push "it's not that dangerous" propaganda into the conservative echo chamber, and the critical thinking challenged morons that inhabit that take it to heart will be a predictable disaster.

[RandomGuy]

The cases going up which is lining up with when they decided to open up is no coincidence. rtm has full blinders on.

Would hate to see her catch it out of hubris. Being in her 60s and all.

At this point... I really have no pity. None.

If someone think shit isn't dangerous... and dies from it because they didn't take any precautions, and encouraged others to do the same... Good riddance, we are better off collectively without that person voting for dumb policies based on the conservative echo chamber that produced their addled opinion for them.

[rmt]

The cases going up which is lining up with when they decided to open up is no coincidence. rtm has full blinders on.

Would hate to see her catch it out of hubris. Being in her 60s and all.

Reck, I thank you for you kind thoughts, and isn't that what it's all about. Haven't quite reached my 60s yet although we're gonna finally be empty nesters this fall and I'm missing my baby already :-)

[ElNono]

Florida has 1 more death per capita than California. Florida has the 2nd highest percentage (20.5%) of population 65 or older. California, otoh, has the 45th lowest percentage (14.3%) of population 65 and older.

Death rates per capita as of 6/17:
California 13
Florida 14
Rhode Island 82
Massachusetts 111
Connecticut 118
New Jersey 144
New York 159

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/


https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/


And 3rd in total population - c'mon, don't be disingenuous - every single statement is true but misleading together - you really don't know where this NOTION comes from? - see the stats in my post above.

So your solution is to cherry pick a population range and use that, instead of taking the total sample? Yeah, that's not disingenuous at all... Not only people over 65 die from covid.

[rmt]

So your solution is to cherry pick a population range and use that, instead of taking the total sample? Yeah, that's not disingenuous at all... Not only people over 65 die from covid.

Older adults are at higher risk
8 out of 10 deaths reported in the U.S. have been in adults 65 years old and older.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html

[ElNono]

Older adults are at higher risk
8 out of 10 deaths reported in the U.S. have been in adults 65 years old and older.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html

Of course they're a higher risk, that doesn't mean those younger than 65 are at zero risk though.

Your claim wasn't that florida did a good job protecting those over 65, but it had an overall "very low" death rate. If they're top 10 in the nation, and there's 50 states, then that's high to very high.

[pgardn]

Of course they're a higher risk, that doesn't mean those younger than 65 are at zero risk though.

Your claim wasn't that florida did a good job protecting those over 65, but it had an overall "very low" death rate. If they're top 10 in the nation, and there's 50 states, then that's high to very high.

Not only this, but you dont go to Florida to stay inside with other people all day.
Other states have a very large portion on the population inside with other people for much longer periods.
Especially those NOT in old age care.

Also the international travel in the early stages from places that abroad that already experienced outbreaks was not close to California or NY.

[Reck]

Bernie supporters losing their shit (Again) because Warren endorsed Hickenlooper.

And you wonder why they lost. Very narrowed minded people. Hickenlooper is beating Gardner by almost 20 points. How much is the other guy beating him by? I'd like to know.

[ElNono]

Bernie supporters losing their shit (Again) because Warren endorsed Hickenlooper.

And you wonder why they lost. Very narrowed minded people. Hickenlooper is beating Gardner by almost 20 points. How much is the other guy beating him by? I'd like to know.

Whether you like Bernie or not, I don't think Biden fans should be pointing fingers at anybody, tbh

[Reck]

Whether you like Bernie or not, I don't think Biden fans should be pointing fingers at anybody, tbh

Typical passive aggressive and lazy response.

Non Bernie supporters does not equate Biden supporters by default. The fact that this has nothing to do with Biden in the first place makes your pointed attack even less impressive.

This is about Warren. So I guess I was talking in her and her supporters defense so I guess Warren supporters are shitheels Biden supporters by nature. :tu

[ElNono]

Typical passive aggressive and lazy response.

Non Bernie supporters does not equate Biden supporters by default. The fact that this has nothing to do with Biden in the first place makes your pointed attack even less impressive.

This is about Warren. So I guess I was talking in her and her supporters defense so I guess Warren supporters are shitheels Biden supporters by nature. :tu

Nothing passive aggressive about my response, tbh... I'm calling out Biden fans for pointing fingers at anybody, not sure how more clear or direct I need to be.

Maybe some people actually stand for what they believe in. Might sound weird to old Joe fans, but they shouldn't be upset about it.

[Reck]

Nothing passive aggressive about my response, tbh... I'm calling out Biden fans for pointing fingers at anybody, not sure how more clear or direct I need to be.

Maybe some people actually stand for what they believe in. Might sound weird to old Joe fans, but they shouldn't be upset about it.

So basically you're mad about something that has nothing to do with Biden (Or me for that matter) and redirecting your anger at said group because you're bored?

You didn't even adressed the point of my post and instead opted to whine about something irrelevant to the topic.

[ElNono]

So basically you're mad about something that has nothing to do with Biden (Or me for that matter) and redirecting your anger at said group because you're bored?

You didn't even adressed the point of my post and instead opted to whine about something irrelevant to the topic.

I'm not mad at anything. You're the one that said Bernie bros are losing their shit for standing for what they firmly believe in, and that makes them narrow minded.

I was pointing out that's a bad read coming from Biden supporters, since Biden stands for nothing.

[Reck]

I'm not mad at anything. You're the one that said Bernie bros are losing their shit for standing for what they firmly believe in, and that makes them narrow minded.

I was pointing out that's a bad read coming from Biden supporters, since Biden stands for nothing.

But you dont even know what they're saying (Admittedly didn't post it myself) and you immediately assume one thing.

No, they're not just standing for what they firmly believe in. They're insulting, labeling her and just flat out lying about her character and what she believes in.

Bernie is not the only proggressive on this earth. Just saying. I'm not going to get into a heated argument over this.

[ElNono]

But you dont even know what they're saying (Admittedly didn't post it myself) and you immediately assume one thing.

No, they're not just standing for what they firmly believe in. They're insulting, labeling her and just flat out lying about her character and what she believes in.

Bernie is not the only proggressive on this earth. Just saying. I'm not going to get into a heated argument over this.

But the issue isn't what they said or didn't, is it? You said they're angry because they're not supporting the party's favored candidate. Should they just roll over and say yes to whatever the party wants? That sounds very Biden'esque...

[Will Hunting]

Bernie supporters losing their shit (Again) because Warren endorsed Hickenlooper.

And you wonder why they lost. Very narrowed minded people. Hickenlooper is beating Gardner by almost 20 points. How much is the other guy beating him by? I'd like to know.
I don’t disagree that this is a stupid criticism of Warren, but what Bernie supporters beyond the fringe element on Twitter are actually losing their shit?

Saying “Bernie supporters losing their shit because Warren endorses Hickenlooper” is the same thing Republicans do when they say “Liberals want to destroy the police and loot your business!”

This is what establishment Democrats regularly do - point to the most extreme and stupid Bernie supports to cast Bernie Sanders’ supporters as unreasonable extremists even though most Bernie supporters really just want America to adopt the same programs that are commonplace across the rest of the industrialized world.

[boutons_deux]

Republican strategists are starting to "panic" and fear a "historic wipeout" in November: report

Republican insiders fear that November could be another Democratic wave election

they also fear that Democrats will achieve a majority in the U.S. Senate and increase the majority they presently hold in the U.S. House of Representatives.

"Trump has trailed former Vice President Joe Biden by almost 10 points in recent national polling. And Republicans privately admit things look just as bad at the local level."

"The environment really sucks for us right now.

We've got a worldwide pandemic,

the economy is slipping — and

now, we have a race war tacked on.

[If] the election were held today, we'd be talking about a wipeout.

We'd be in landslide territory."

https://www.salon.com/2020/06/21/republican-strategists-are-starting-to-panic-and-fear-a-historic-wipeout-in-november-report_partner/

I have no doubt that the corporatist, anti-progressive, BigDonor Dems under Pelosi and Schumer will do very little to undo the Repug destruction

[RandomGuy]

Republican strategists are starting to "panic" and fear a "historic wipeout" in November: report

Republican insiders fear that November could be another Democratic wave election

they also fear that Democrats will achieve a majority in the U.S. Senate and increase the majority they presently hold in the U.S. House of Representatives.

"Trump has trailed former Vice President Joe Biden by almost 10 points in recent national polling. And Republicans privately admit things look just as bad at the local level."

"The environment really sucks for us right now.

We've got a worldwide pandemic,

the economy is slipping — and

now, we have a race war tacked on.

[If] the election were held today, we'd be talking about a wipeout.

We'd be in landslide territory."

https://www.salon.com/2020/06/21/republican-strategists-are-starting-to-panic-and-fear-a-historic-wipeout-in-november-report_partner/

I have no doubt that the corporatist, anti-progressive, BigDonor Dems under Pelosi and Schumer will do very little to undo the Repug destruction




Funny thing is that none of them can say anything publicly about the coming Blue Wave.

GOPs strength, i.e. unity in thought, is it's greatest weakness.

It is akin to a thoughtcrime to contradict Dear Leader Trump. That sounds hyperbolic, but... it is just reality. Republican voters have punished those who deviate.

[Will Hunting]

Ultra progressive candidate Booker is up on McGrath in Kentucky primary due to the black vote in Louisville and Lexington.

Its remarkable how the same black people who ostensibly voted for Biden because they’re pragmatic about electing a candidate who can “win the center” stop giving two shits about “winning the center” when it’s a progressive black candidate on the ticket.

Either way, I’m pulling for Booker even though I think McGrath will win off the mail in ballots. McGrath is basically a characature of the rot inside the Democratic Party.

[Reck]

Ultra progressive candidate Booker is up on McGrath in Kentucky primary due to the black vote in Louisville and Lexington.

Its remarkable how the same black people who ostensibly voted for Biden because they’re pragmatic about electing a candidate who can “win the center” stop giving two shits about “winning the center” when it’s a progressive black candidate on the ticket.

Either way, I’m pulling for Booker even though I think McGrath will win off the mail in ballots. McGrath is basically a characature of the rot inside the Democratic Party.

Isn't this a situation of they both lose anyways but McGrath would lose by less type situation?

A lot of people hyping this race like it will matter in November. McGrath ran and lost in 2018 for a house seat. Not sure what made her think she could win statewide.

[Will Hunting]

Isn't this a situation of they both lose anyways but McGrath would lose by less type situation?

A lot of people hyping this race like it will matter in November. McGrath ran and lost in 2018 for a house seat. Not sure what made her think she could win statewide.
She’s a horrible candidate. Likeability matters more than policy, and she doesn’t have any. She comes off as a cold looking authoritarian dyke way worse than even Hillary or Klobuchar, she needs to soften her appearance a lot to be electable. Flip flopping on Kavanaugh was also a huge stumble - when Fox News talks about Clinton Democrats who don’t have a soul and only pretend to care about working class voters by pandering however the political winds are blowing, they’re talking about McGrath.

I think they both lose to McConnell but I’m not convinced McGrath loses by less. It’s incredible that this race is even competitive with Booker’s fundraising disadvantage, and if he’s on the ballot we’ll see huge black turnout in Louisville and Lexington. Im also tired of seeing the establishment machine trying to control every fucking primary by funneling money to the establishment candidate, for that reason alone I want McGrath to lose.

[RandomGuy]

Ultra progressive candidate Booker is up on McGrath in Kentucky primary due to the black vote in Louisville and Lexington.

Its remarkable how the same black people who ostensibly voted for Biden because they’re pragmatic about electing a candidate who can “win the center” stop giving two shits about “winning the center” when it’s a progressive black candidate on the ticket.

Either way, I’m pulling for Booker even though I think McGrath will win off the mail in ballots. McGrath is basically a characature of the rot inside the Democratic Party.

Agreed.

I am for whoever can beat McConnel. but at the same time, it seems that the right gave up trying to appeal to the center, and has dragged everything so far to the right in a "fuck it, no quarter" mindset, that it seems it is time for the left to just go with its progressive side and present actual ideas.

Force the mushy ass center to finally pick some ideas that stand a chance of working.

[boutons_deux]

well, fuck Repug whore Alito and voter suppression

U.S. Supreme Court rejects Texas Democrats' effort to expand voting by mail during pandemic

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/26/us-supreme-court-rejects-texas-democrats-effort-expand-absentee-voting/

SCOTUS assists the oligarchy's coup d'etat, so fucking obvious

[Will Hunting]

Here’s to hoping John Dickenlooper loses his primary tomorrow.

[Reck]

Here’s to hoping John Dickenlooper loses his primary tomorrow.

I thought you said you were a fan of this guy.

Do you think the other dude has a realistic shot at Gardner?

[Will Hunting]

I thought you said you were a fan of this guy.

Do you think the other dude has a realistic shot at Gardner?
:lol no, I think he’s a scumbag.

Why wouldn’t the other guy have a chance against Gardner? It’s a blue state and Gardner’s approval rating is low. Did MSNBC run a special about how Romanoff is too liberal to win with Claire McCaskill as guest speaker or something?

[Reck]

:lol no, I think he’s a scumbag.

Why wouldn’t the other guy have a chance against Gardner? It’s a blue state and Gardner’s approval rating is low. Did MSNBC run a special about how Romanoff is too liberal to win with Claire McCaskill as guest speaker or something?

I wouldn’t know.

Just going off the fact he’s Bernie backed. These ultra progressive candidates tend to run on issues that sound good but don’t have the broad appeal. The Green deal for instance is a killer issue just for the fact AOC cane up with it.

But that’s why I’m asking. I have no idea what the make up of Colorado is. Tilting to the left left or is it a moderate type state like Arizona?

[Will Hunting]

I wouldn’t know.

Just going off the fact he’s Bernie backed. These ultra progressive candidates tend to run on issues that sound good but don’t have the board appeal. The Green deal for instance is a killer issue just for the fact AOC cane up with it.

But that’s why I’m asking. I have no idea what the make up of Colorado is. Tilting to the left left or is it a moderate type state like Arizona?
Colorado has gone to the Dems by at least 5% in the last 3 presidential elections, and its demographics only trend more blue every year because of Hispanics/millennials. It’s basically 15 years ahead of Arizona on the demographic shift curve and well to the left of center. Gardner only won in 2014 because millennials and Mexicans are too lazy to vote in midterms.

:lmao the “if Bernie endorsed him he must be a loser” psuedo conventional wisdom. What is Dickenlooper running on? More campaign finance violations? The only way Gardner wins is if he’s running against a scandal ridden candidate like Dickenlooper.

[Reck]

:lmao the “if Bernie endorsed him he must be a loser” psuedo conventional wisdom. What is Dickenlooper running on? More campaign finance violations? The only way Gardner wins is if he’s running against a scandal ridden candidate like Dickenlooper.

Oh would you calm down?

I was just asking. Bernie doesn't have the best track. It's not wisdom, I'm going based on reality and what's gone down.


Sanders-backed candidates faltered in an Omaha mayoral race and a nationally watched House race in Montana.


rep. Tom Perriello’s loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial primary


in June, the drubbing in Iowa of Pete D’Alessandro


Cathy Glasson, endorsed by Sanders’ successor group, Our Revolution, fell short in Iowa’s gubernatorial primary


as did Peter Jacob and Jim Keady in two New Jersey House races


Dennis Kucinich lost in Ohio.


Tuesday night brought Sanders and his army their latest blow, with a pair of high-profile losses in Michigan and Kansas.


the race was called for Welder’s opponent Sharice Davids

Sanders did even worse in Michigan, where he and Ocasio-Cortez campaigned aggressively for Abdul El-Sayed


El-Sayed lost to former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/08/bernie-sanders-endorsements-2018-elections-767403

To be honest, you should get the point. There are more I left out from that article alone.

If either of them beat Gardner, that is all I care about.

[Will Hunting]

Oh would you calm down?

I was just asking. Bernie doesn't have the best track. It's not wisdom, I'm going based on reality and what's gone down.

















Sanders did even worse in Michigan, where he and Ocasio-Cortez campaigned aggressively for Abdul El-Sayed



https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/08/bernie-sanders-endorsements-2018-elections-767403

To be honest, you should get the point. There are more I left out from that article alone.

If either of them beat Gardner, that is all I care about.
Yes, Sanders consistently endorses the underdog candidate who Claire McCaskill and her gang of House n!ggers on MSNBC constantly rant about as too liberal to win, and it’s turned into a conventional wisdom because people like you have heard it so many times you assume it must be true.

Did Sanders endorsing Hillary contribute to her loss too?

[Reck]

Yes, Sanders consistently endorses the underdog candidate who Claire McCaskill and her gang of House n!ggers on MSNBC constantly rant about as too liberal to win, and it’s turned into a conventional wisdom because people like you have heard it so many times you assume it must be true.

Did Sanders endorsing Hillary contribute to her loss too?

What's with this rage? I dont watch cable news outside of when there's an election going on. Keep flailing.

[Will Hunting]

What's with this rage? I dont watch cable news outside of when there's an election going on. Keep flailing.
I just got done writing an email for work telling someone about the ten different ways he fucked something up so it sharp negativity hasn’t worn off yet :lol

Regarding Dickenlooper - he’s in trouble for campaign finance rule violations right now, and if you read some of his recent quotes he’s completely fucked up the BLM stuff which is largely why I want him to lose. People view him as some kind of “safe” candidate just because he’s a moderate when he’s got a lot of baggage for Gardner to go after. I also don’t think black people are fucking around right now, they’re not going to just show up and vote Dem. give them a candidate like Dickenlooper and they might just stay home to make a statement.

[Reck]

On another more positive and unifying note, there's this.
1277715481282121732

1277615761079644162

Every time Kavanaugh is in the news (For the wrong thing) is another good day for Gideon and another opportunity to showcase what a disaster Collins has been.

[RandomGuy]

On another more positive and unifying note, there's this.
1277715481282121732

1277615761079644162

Every time Kavanaugh is in the news (For the wrong thing) is another good day for Gideon and another opportunity to showcase what a disaster Collins has been.

She is going to lose badly. She will do better than Trump though.


Of course, Trump became president because he won the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote. But if Biden wins the popular vote by 9.6 points, his current lead, Trump would be extremely unlikely to pull off the same trick. In our state-by-state polling averages, Biden currently leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed to win.2
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

[Reck]

Amy McGrath comes back to win her primary against Booker. Will face the tortuga Mitch.

[spurraider21]

Ultra progressive candidate Booker is up on McGrath in Kentucky primary due to the black vote in Louisville and Lexington.

Its remarkable how the same black people who ostensibly voted for Biden because they’re pragmatic about electing a candidate who can “win the center” stop giving two shits about “winning the center” when it’s a progressive black candidate on the ticket.

Either way, I’m pulling for Booker even though I think McGrath will win off the mail in ballots. McGrath is basically a characature of the rot inside the Democratic Party.
take what you can get in kentucky tbh

[koriwhat]

Lmao what an echo chamber of a thread!

[Spurminator]

McGrath wins by only 7k votes. Probably a different result in a scenario where Louisville has more than one polling place. She has a lot of work to do to appeal to the thousands of disenfranchised voters, and I'm sure KY isn't done fucking with voting availability.

[Trainwreck2100]

McGrath wins by only 7k votes. Probably a different result in a scenario where Louisville has more than one polling place. She has a lot of work to do to appeal to the thousands of disenfranchised voters, and I'm sure KY isn't done fucking with voting availability.

doesn't matter look at how many votes McConnel got in his primary, she/he? has zero chance of winning shit. Pulling half of Booker's vote while keeping the whites from getting scared to the polls in a presidential election year? Nice to see another progressive lose though, but they're turning into the tea party of this political generation.

[Will Hunting]

McGrath wins by only 7k votes. Probably a different result in a scenario where Louisville has more than one polling place. She has a lot of work to do to appeal to the thousands of disenfranchised voters, and I'm sure KY isn't done fucking with voting availability.
How do people not understand how “one polling location per county” completely fucks population centers and helps rural voters.

In this particular case, seems like Booker’s momentum came too late which is a shame. Bulldyke McGrath won off early mail on votes. If all the votes were cast on election day McGrath would have been torched.

Either way, a racist bulldyke who has no redeeming qualities is going to get wrecked by McConnell.

[tholdren]

2020 is shaping up to be as bad for Republicans as 2018, and likely worse.

First article, and I will guess that most conservatives won't bother reading the whole thing. Just a hint: it doesn't quite say what you think it does. If you don't look beyond the headline, you are doing yourself a disservice.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.
Why Republicans are getting very nervous about maintaining their stranglehold on the Lone Star State.

...

“The tectonic plates shifted in Texas in 2018,” Senator John Cornyn, the powerful Republican who’s facing reelection in 2020 (with just a 37 percent approval rating) said earlier this year. Cornyn has been sounding the alarms ever since November, warning national Republicans against complacency and spelling out the dire consequences for his party if they can’t stave off the Democratic surge: “If Texas turns back to a Democratic state, which it used to be, then we’ll never elect another Republican [president] in my lifetime,” said Cornyn.

A confluence of events over the past couple of weeks has reinforced Cornyn’s message. In what giddy Democrats are calling “the Texodus,” four Republican members of Congress announced, in short order, that they won’t be running for reelection in 2020; three of their seats, all in the suburbs, will likely go Democratic, adding to the two they took from Republicans in 2018. “We could see other representatives step away too,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Why would you go into a knockdown, drag-out fight when you’re either going to lose next time, or soon afterward?”

While the Texodus was underway, Republican infighting—the latest episode in a long-running battle between conservatives and the hard right—hit the headlines in the most embarrassing of ways. Republican House Speaker Dennis Bonnen was caught on tape by prominent right-wing activist Michael Quinn Sullivan crudely insulting several lawmakers, while rattling off a “hit list” of insufficiently conservative Republicans he wanted to be taken out in primaries next year. (Democrats filed suit earlier this week, alleging that Bonnen broke state law and violated campaign-finance regulations in the process.)

...

Cal Jillson, a venerable political scientist at Southern Methodist University, is among those who think this president has accelerated the Democratic comeback in Texas. “My sense pre-Trump was that there were demographic dynamics that were going to bring two-party competition at some point,” he said. “I thought it would take another 15 to 20 years. But Trump has brought all that forward. It’s happening much more quickly.”

...Texas Democrats were giving Latinos and young whites no reason to engage. That started to change in 2012, when Gilberto Hinojosa, a former judge, was elected party chair. “He wanted a progressive, aggressive institution,” said Manny Garcia, who became one of the new hires charged with “creating a Democratic brand” where there was none, and moving the party into the twenty-first century. Texas Democrats now have full-blown data and digital operations; they’re raising more money online than any state party in the country, Garcia said, while plotting “the largest coordinated campaign in the history of Texas” for 2020. The party’s efforts have been aided considerably by voter-engagement groups like Jolt and Texas Rising, which have focused on Latinos and young voters and helped to send voter registration and turnout soaring; from 2014 to 2018, Texas added some 1.8 million new voters, the majority of them women and people of color. The party estimates that “there’s 30,000 to 50,000 Democrats who arrive in the state every month,” according to Garcia, and now—at last—they’re being asked to register, vote, and run for office.

https://newrepublic.com/article/154723/texas-bracing-blue-wave-2020-yes-texas

Mostly jibes with what I see happening on the ground.

I'll post a bit more here as data comes in. I will emphasize, once again, that Trump's win in 2016 was a narrow one, and he is less popular now than he was then, with the added headwind of an energized Democratic party.

Lol RandomGuy values politics over science

[Will Hunting]

take what you can get in kentucky tbh
What is it we get from McGrath? Another yay vote to confirm Kavanaugh? The only material reason I prefer establishment Dems over Republicans is judge appointments, when you have an establishment Dem as far to the right as McGrath is there’s no difference anymore. Once she said she would have voted for Kavanaugh the DNC should have defunded her campaign.

[SnakeBoy]

take what you can get

That's been the consistent message to the lefty Bernie bro types

Fortunately for the Dems, go ahead stick it in deeper seems to be their go to reply.

[spurraider21]

What is it we get from McGrath? Another yay vote to confirm Kavanaugh? The only material reason I prefer establishment Dems over Republicans is judge appointments, when you have an establishment Dem as far to the right as McGrath is there’s no difference anymore. Once she said she would have voted for Kavanaugh the DNC should have defunded her campaign.
she might have confirmed kavanaugh (i dont know, has she actually commented on that?). but she would have voted against the tax cuts.

take what you can get from a place like kentucky

[Will Hunting]

That's been the consistent message to the lefty Bernie bro types

Fortunately for the Dems, go ahead stick it in deeper seems to be their go to reply.
:lol don’t say that so loud, establishment Dems need to be able to cry about how Bernie Bros are really stubborn weren’t supportive enough whenever candidates like McGrath lose.

[Will Hunting]

she might have confirmed kavanaugh (i dont know, has she actually commented on that?). but she would have voted against the tax cuts.

take what you can get from a place like kentucky
She flat out said she would have confirmed Kavanaugh when she was asked the question.

Youre also falling for the “take what you can get” conventional wisdom. What makes her a better candidate vs McConnell exactly? Black people think she’s tone deaf and she’s in a state where Democrats have no path towards victory without strong black voter support.

[Will Hunting]

The conventional wisdom of trying to win southern states by running Clinton Democrats who are center right on everything except the social issues like abortion that are why southern whites vote Republican in the first place is ass backwards logic. The way to pick up southern states is by running religious Democrats who are center right on social issues but have populist appeal, literally the opposite of candidates like McGrath.

[Spurminator]

How do people not understand how “one polling location per county” completely fucks population centers and helps rural voters.

Not sure if you meant me but this is exactly what I was saying.

[spurraider21]

She flat out said she would have confirmed Kavanaugh when she was asked the question.

Youre also falling for the “take what you can get” conventional wisdom. What makes her a better candidate vs McConnell exactly? Black people think she’s tone deaf and she’s in a state where Democrats have no path towards victory without strong black voter support.
:lmao

[Will Hunting]

Not sure if you meant me but this is exactly what I was saying.
No definitely didn’t mean you, I was commenting on the fact most people see that and think “hurr durr well each county has the same sounds fair to me”

[Will Hunting]

:lmao
You didn’t understand the question. Obviously she’s better than Cocaine Mitch, I’m asking what exactly makes her a better than candidate than Booker was.

[spurraider21]

That's been the consistent message to the lefty Bernie bro types

Fortunately for the Dems, go ahead stick it in deeper seems to be their go to reply.
its a hard pill to swallow for sure, but when somebody as disastrous and dangerous as trump is on the ballot, it's insanity not to vote him out.

[spurraider21]

You didn’t understand the question. Obviously she’s better than Cocaine Mitch, I’m asking what exactly makes her a better than candidate than Booker was.
yeah, i misread in haste. mea culpa

what makes her a better candidate? i dont know that she is. the vote margins were pretty close, so i dont see that mcgrath will draw out significantly more voters or anything like that. i also dont know that booker was inherently a better candidate (if we are strictly talking about likelihood to win).

[Spurminator]

its a hard pill to swallow for sure, but when somebody as disastrous and dangerous as trump is on the ballot, it's insanity not to vote him out.

SnakeBoy didn't like Donald Trump until he was told "take what you can get" by Republicans.

Unlike Bernie Bros, he went full apologist for his team.

[Will Hunting]

yeah, i misread in haste. mea culpa

what makes her a better candidate? i dont know that she is. the vote margins were pretty close, so i dont see that mcgrath will draw out significantly more voters or anything like that. i also dont know that booker was inherently a better candidate (if we are strictly talking about likelihood to win).
That’s kinda my point, for every moderate voter McGrath gains there’s a black voter she loses. In 2018 McGrath also lost a district that’s to the left of Kentucky as a whole, it’d be one thing she won that race and had momentum but this is another example of the DNC trying to cram the same loser down people’s throats over again (ie Biden).

If you have two candidates with an equally low chance at beating Cocaine Mitch, might as well go with the real Democrat who won’t support Kavanaugh.

[Reck]

She flat out said she would have confirmed Kavanaugh when she was asked the question.


Yikes.

Pandering answer maybe? It's a lot easier to say you're gonna vote one way knowing you're not in a position of power and there is no consequence to you saying such. (Given that she won her primary anyway)

If she meant that she would vote for Kavanaugh that would make her a worse politician than Hillary. I do not think Hillary would be for Kavanaugh at all. Kavanaugh is a fringe right type dude. That outburst about Hillary and weird conspiracy he threw out in his confirmation hearing was a total disqualifying moment.

[spurraider21]

SnakeBoy didn't like Donald Trump until he was told "take what you can get" by Republicans.

Unlike Bernie Bros, he went full apologist for his team.
and i'm not entirely unsympathetic to that approach if they truly believed that a hillary clinton presidency would have been disastrous for the country (obviously i dont believe that to be the case, but not the point) and that trump wouldn't be

but yeah, at this point the proof is in the pudding. cant get by on that anymore. i dont like biden much, but theres nothing to suggest that he's going to run the country further into the shitter. unfortunately, that's become the bar right now

[spurraider21]

That’s kinda my point, for every moderate voter McGrath gains there’s a black voter she loses. In 2018 McGrath also lost a district that’s to the left of Kentucky as a whole, it’d be one thing she won that race and had momentum but this is another example of the DNC trying to cram the same loser down people’s throats over again (ie Biden).

If you have two candidates with an equally low chance at beating Cocaine Mitch, might as well go with the real Democrat who won’t support Kavanaugh.
i dont know that's the case when she's running against a republican, particularly mcconnell. kentucky is ~8% black

[Spurminator]

and i'm not entirely unsympathetic to that approach if they truly believed that a hillary clinton presidency would have been disastrous for the country (obviously i dont believe that to be the case, but not the point) and that trump wouldn't be

but yeah, at this point the proof is in the pudding. cant get by on that anymore. i dont like biden much, but theres nothing to suggest that he's going to run the country further into the shitter

The approach is sometimes a necessary evil for an election. Being silent about it afterwards is not.

Trump having a consistently 90+% approval rating among Republicans is inexcusable. Conviction is dead in the GOP.

[SnakeBoy]

its a hard pill to swallow for sure, but when somebody as disastrous and dangerous as trump is on the ballot, it's insanity not to vote him out.

It's not a pill you're swallowing :lol

[spurraider21]

It's not a pill you're swallowing :lol
oh man, gay jokes in 2020. so edgy!

at least use jokes that are only outdated by a few years like "why are you assuming my gender LOLOL"

[ChumpDumper]

It's not a pill you're swallowing :lolWhat is your positive reason for voting Trump?

[Will Hunting]

Yikes.

Pandering answer maybe? It's a lot easier to say you're gonna vote one way knowing you're not in a position of power and there is no consequence to you saying such. (Given that she won her primary anyway)

If she meant that she would vote for Kavanaugh that would make her a worse politician than Hillary. I do not think Hillary would be for Kavanaugh at all. Kavanaugh is a fringe right type dude. That outburst about Hillary and weird conspiracy he threw out in his confirmation hearing was a total disqualifying moment.
I don’t really know why she said she would have confirmed him. She backpedaled afterwards which makes it even worse. The voters she’s going after aren’t fringe right Kavanaugh fans, it was just a really stupid political move.

[Reck]

Colorado primary race already called. Wow

Hickenlooper wins by a huge margin according to the AP.

1278137139050446848

[DMC]

Yikes.

Pandering answer maybe? It's a lot easier to say you're gonna vote one way knowing you're not in a position of power and there is no consequence to you saying such. (Given that she won her primary anyway)

If she meant that she would vote for Kavanaugh that would make her a worse politician than Hillary. I do not think Hillary would be for Kavanaugh at all. Kavanaugh is a fringe right type dude. That outburst about Hillary and weird conspiracy he threw out in his confirmation hearing was a total disqualifying moment.

So just set your narrative for her and dismiss her comments as pandering, because narrative.

[DMC]

Colorado primary race already called. Wow

Hickenlooper wins by a huge margin according to the AP.

1278137139050446848

I like Hickenlooper. He ran Magpul out and into Austin. Good job Hickenstooper.

[RandomGuy]

It's not a pill you're swallowing :lol


What is your positive reason for voting Trump?

Make your case. I can't wait to have competent leadership back in the whitehouse. The yes men that are left after years of Trump shit-stain turnover, are full on idiots.

[boutons_deux]

Republicans' internal polls predict a "Democratic rout" this fall

"Public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers”

when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side,"

Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans,

which suggests

the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers,"

"Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls

Republican aligned groups have put out 0. :lol

"This reminds me a lot of what happened just two years ago.

Almost universally, Democrats were the ones publishing their House polls publicly.

They went on to have a net gain of 40 seats in the House.

Democrats also won the House popular vote by 9 points,"

https://www.salon.com/2020/07/05/republicans-internal-polls-predict-a-democratic-rout-this-fall-election-analyst_partner/

[FrostKing]

The Comeback

[boutons_deux]

The Comeback

:lol

Trash/Miller speech showed Trash will try to win again in 2020 like he did in 2016:

hate, hate, hate, White Male Supremacy and Grievances, misogyny, xenophobia, impossible promises.

[FrostKing]

:lol

Trash/Miller speech showed Trash will try to win again in 2020 like he did in 2016:

hate, hate, hate, White Male Supremacy and Grievances, misogyny, xenophobia, impossible promises.
I like you steping up in the plate

No matter who wins 2020 Election. Go to work the next day.

[RandomGuy]

"June represented the political nadir of his three and a half years in the Oval Office, when a race in which he had been steadily trailing, but faring respectably, broke open and left him facing the possibility of not just defeat but humiliation this fall," the Times reported.

It found that internal campaign polls have shown Trump losing Georgia and even Kansas — which few have considered even a potential swing state.

Kansas + Georgia = Lock for Biden even if all the swing states go red.

Worst case scenario is that all the "lean R" flip. ... that is a 417 to 120 rout. Unlikely. But then again, so was Trumps election in the first place.

After he leads them into the maw of the machine gun fire in a pointless charge, the only question is when will they turn on him?

[boutons_deux]

I read that if Biden is tying Trash in deep red shithole TX, then other less solidly red states are Biden's

[RandomGuy]

I read that if Biden is tying Trash in deep red shithole TX, then other less solidly red states are Biden's

Given how badly the Republican government in TX is fucking up the corona response, they might actually lose this fall. I don't think that has really dawned on them yet.

If that happens, I will do a little jig and post "Ode to Joy" here.

[Reck]

Trump is fucking up in Missouri.

[RandomGuy]

Trump is fucking up in Missouri.

??? wazzup

[Reck]

??? wazzup

Closer race than it should be.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/missouri/

Biden actually up 2 in one poll and in most of them down just 7-8 points instead of 15-20 like he should be.

[RandomGuy]

Closer race than it should be.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/missouri/

Biden actually up 2 in one poll and in most of them down just 7-8 points instead of 15-20 like he should be.

270 put it in the "safe" R category.

Well, here is what the electoral college looks like if you shift everything one category towards blue in a typical wave election.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/1NY0k

A massive 411 to 127 blowout.

As I said, unlikely, but then Trumps election was itself unlikely.

If Trump were to start losing "safe" states, we could see something close to that though. We will see. Biden pretty much will win based on current polling. I doubt that changes materially.

[ChumpDumper]

1281690248280510466

[Reck]

1281690248280510466

:lmao

[Will Hunting]

1281690248280510466
Jesus, I just checked her twitter and she’s going batshit today. She’s apparently angry with Cocaine Mitch for not backing Kris Kob:lolch

[Reck]

Jesus, I just checked her twitter and she’s going batshit today. She’s apparently angry with Cocaine Mitch for not backing Kris Kob:lolch

The Turtle ain't no dummy. He knows Kobach is actually a huge liability that puts the senate seat at risk.

He's another McSally. Only she didn't actually lose the governor race to a democrat in KANSAS. :lol loving the implosion going on in this party right now.

[Will Hunting]

The Turtle ain't no dummy. He knows Kobach is actually a huge liability that puts the senate seat at risk.

He's another McSally. Only she didn't actually lose the governor race to a democrat in KANSAS. :lol loving the implosion going on in this party right now.
Yeah way worse than McSally imo. She’s a weak candidate in a state where the political winds are already blowing left. Kobach is an albatross candidate who makes a ruby red state a purple state just by being on the ticket because of much of a failure Sam Brownback was as Governor :lol

[RandomGuy]

1281690248280510466

Wha wha wha? Wow.

[Will Hunting]

DeSantis, despite Florida having a very large number of seniors/nursing homes/retirees, kept the Covid death rate very low with his policies.
This post isn’t aging very well :lmao

Florida setting the record for new cases in a single day by any state :lmao

:cry it’s just because there’s more testing :cry

[midnightpulp]

This post isn’t aging very well :lmao

Florida setting the record for new cases in a single day by any state :lmao

:cry it’s just because there’s more testing :cry

Many of the those new cases from their record breaking day came from a backlog dump


The relatively high number of tests announced Sunday suggest some of the pending tests may have cleared the backlog and been processed.

But their positive rate on those tests was 16%. This is worrisome because presumably those backlogged tests came from a period where Florida's infection saturation was much lower (like in May or early June). They're going to get their asses kicked in the coming weeks, especially when all those July 4th gatherings start cashing in.

They won't get as bad an NY, so I guess DeSantis can pat himself on the back with, "At least we're not New York!" But their situation is inexcusable because Ron DeathSentence had a 3 month warning to prepare in an environment much less suited to transmission vs. New York with their sky high population density and use of public transit.

[boutons_deux]

One-Third of All Coronavirus Tests Came Back Positive in Miami-Dade County on Thursday (https://gizmodo.com/one-third-of-all-coronavirus-tests-came-back-positive-i-1844342579)
https://gizmodo.com/one-third-of-all-coronavirus-tests-came-back-positive-i-1844342579?utm_source=gizmodo_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020-07-13

[RandomGuy]

No, the scumbag was the other choice - Gillum - found drunk/doped in hotel room with male escort. DeSantis, despite Florida having a very large number of seniors/nursing homes/retirees, kept the Covid death rate very low with his policies. Maybe you should go disparage the other scumbag, Cuomo, who didn't. And if there's messing with the voting in Southeast Florida, it'll be Broward County and their suspect voting shenanigans that interfere.

This was an entirely predictable outcome. Would you like to see where I predicted it?

and...

"broward county" = where the black people live.

mmm dog-whistle racism to boot. sure, broward county is where the fraud in florida happens... :rolleyes


Florida Woman Charged With Massive Voter Fraud, Changing Registrations From Democrat To Republican

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/florida-woman-charged-voter-fraud-changed

[RandomGuy]

Yeah way worse than McSally imo. She’s a weak candidate in a state where the political winds are already blowing left. Kobach is an albatross candidate who makes a ruby red state a purple state just by being on the ticket because of much of a failure Sam Brownback was as Governor :lol


You want a really good article on how much of a skeez and idiot this guys is:

How the Case for Voter Fraud Was Tested — and Utterly Failed
https://www.propublica.org/article/kris-kobach-voter-fraud-kansas-trial

Voter ID fraud myth is essentially a scheme this guy cooked up to make money. He would convince cities and states to enact voter ID laws based on mythical voter fraud and then got paid to defend the laws that got passed to combat this myth in court when those laws invariably drew challenges.

Another total con-man that Republicans just can't understand is a con-man. It's like conservatives are predisposed to believe myths. (evangelicals cough cough)

[Will Hunting]

Many of the those new cases from their record breaking day came from a backlog dump



But their positive rate on those tests was 16%. This is worrisome because presumably those backlogged tests came from a period where Florida's infection saturation was much lower (like in May or early June). They're going to get their asses kicked in the coming weeks, especially when all those July 4th gatherings start cashing in.

They won't get as bad an NY, so I guess DeSantis can pat himself on the back with, "At least we're not New York!" But their situation is inexcusable because Ron DeathSentence had a 3 month warning to prepare in an environment much less suited to transmission vs. New York with their sky high population density and use of public transit.
Whether or not they’re worse than NY when NY was at the height of the crisis, NY had less than 10 deaths everyday for the last 3 days. Florida has had 233 deaths during that time. There’s no excuse for why NY has been able to completely mitigate the crisis while it’s only getting worse in Florida :lol

[Reck]

1283214335884525568

1283255174019063809

Anyone knows who Hegar is? :lol

Gideon though is in a great position to take out some trash.

[Will Hunting]

They shouldn’t waste any money campaigning in Texas beyond ensuring they don’t lose house seats. It’s an expensive state to campaign in and if the Texas senate race is winnable it means the Iowa, Montana, and Kansas (If Kobauch wins the primary) races are a lot more winnable and where the campaign money should go.

[RandomGuy]

They shouldn’t waste any money campaigning in Texas beyond ensuring they don’t lose house seats. It’s an expensive state to campaign in and if the Texas senate race is winnable it means the Iowa, Montana, and Kansas (If Kobauch wins the primary) races are a lot more winnable and where the campaign money should go.

I think that is going to be where the calculation ends up. The saw though is "Texas isn't red, it is just a non-voting state".

Dunno. Myself and my fellow Democrats are building on 2018. The party came back to life, and the infrastructure is still there, and functioning. Whether or not national spends money here, I will, as will my fellow Dems. It will be made a lot harder by the suppression efforts as well as by the lockdown/pandemic. Sucks.

Sucks is we will still have four more years of fucking Ted Cruz. If we pull it off this time around, without the help from national... we will get those resources next time around. Wishful thinking on my part admittedly.

No one I know is giving up though.

[RandomGuy]

Whether or not they’re worse than NY when NY was at the height of the crisis, NY had less than 10 deaths everyday for the last 3 days. Florida has had 233 deaths during that time. There’s no excuse for why NY has been able to completely mitigate the crisis while it’s only getting worse in Florida :lol

One can hope this will change a lot of voters' calculus. As dismayed as I am about how bad Republican policymaking has been on this, the silver lining is that is a very easy issue to run on this fall.

[Reck]

1283507997109518341

:lol Getting laughable now.

[Will Hunting]

Jim Crow Joe wasting money on a stupid campaign ad dedicated to Texas.

The DNC is so fucking incompetent.

[SnakeBoy]

Jim Crow Joe wasting money on a stupid campaign ad dedicated to Texas.

The DNC is so fucking incompetent.

Going for the mandate like Hillary did

[Will Hunting]

Going for the mandate like Hillary did
He’ll get as many electoral colleges from Texas as she did too.

[Reck]

Jim Crow Joe wasting money on a stupid campaign ad dedicated to Texas.

The DNC is so fucking incompetent.

Aren't they playing with house money anyway? They're outraising Trump's machine.

I think as long as they are seeing polls showing them up there they will waste the money.

[Will Hunting]

Aren't they playing with house money anyway? They're outraising Trump's machine.

I think as long as they are seeing polls showing them up there they will waste the money.
It’s still fucking retarded. A dollar they spend in Texas is a dollar they could be spending in a state like Montana where it’s a lot cheaper to campaign and there’s a winnable senate race.

Even if Biden can win Texas Cornyn isn’t losing.

[spurraider21]

.

[RandomGuy]

Jim Crow Joe wasting money on a stupid campaign ad dedicated to Texas.

The DNC is so fucking incompetent.

They put in a moderate ad buy, but no big expenditure. It is a sop to the Texas Dems, who contribute a pretty good chunk of collective change to the DNC, with the alternative being zero and pissing us off.

2016 proves you don't win if you don't play. I don't expect to see any huge effort on their part, but seems about right.

[RandomGuy]

It’s still fucking retarded. A dollar they spend in Texas is a dollar they could be spending in a state like Montana where it’s a lot cheaper to campaign and there’s a winnable senate race.

Even if Biden can win Texas Cornyn isn’t losing.

38>3

[boutons_deux]

Biden builds 5-point lead over Trump in Texas
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506972-biden-leads-trump-5-points-in-texas-poll

[Will Hunting]

38>3
That’s oversimplified and stupid. Montana has as many senators as Texas does, and Biden doesn’t need Texas to win. In any scenario where Texas is a swing state, Biden wins in a landslide.

Republicans have disproportionate power because they actually campaign in flyover states while Democrats focus on sensationalism and stupid shit like :cry make Texas blue!!! :cry

[Will Hunting]

They put in a moderate ad buy, but no big expenditure. It is a sop to the Texas Dems, who contribute a pretty good chunk of collective change to the DNC, with the alternative being zero and pissing us off.

2016 proves you don't win if you don't play. I don't expect to see any huge effort on their part, but seems about right.
Texas Dems are babies if that’s the case. There are plenty of California Republicans who contribute to national races, and none of them expect the GOP to waste money campaigning in California.

You have temporal lobe damage if you think that needing to campaign in Texas is somehow a lesson learned from 2016 - Hillary lost because she was spending money in Texas and Georgia instead of making sure the blue wall would hold up.

Biden winning isn’t going to matter if Mitch McConnell is still senate majority leader and has the ability to stop anything from going to the floor, and it’s pretty clear that’s what he’ll do regardless of how much Biden wins by.

[Dick Jones]

Texas Dems are babies if that’s the case. There are plenty of California Republicans who contribute to national races, and none of them expect the GOP to waste money campaigning in California.

You have temporal lobe damage if you think that needing to campaign in Texas is somehow a lesson learned from 2016 - Hillary lost because she was spending money in Texas and Georgia instead of making sure the blue wall would hold up.

Biden winning isn’t going to matter if Mitch McConnell is still senate majority leader and has the ability to stop anything from going to the floor, and it’s pretty clear that’s what he’ll do regardless of how much Biden wins by.
They need to teach the absolute failure of the Hillary campaign in political science classes from now on.

:lmao Ignoring Michigan and Wisconsin so you can go to a church in South Carolina and talk about loving hot sauce :lmao

[RandomGuy]

That’s oversimplified and stupid. Montana has as many senators as Texas does, and Biden doesn’t need Texas to win. In any scenario where Texas is a swing state, Biden wins in a landslide.

Republicans have disproportionate power because they actually campaign in flyover states while Democrats focus on sensationalism and stupid shit like :cry make Texas blue!!! :cry

First is truth, second is ironically oversimplified and stupid. :lol

[RandomGuy]

Texas Dems are babies if that’s the case. There are plenty of California Republicans who contribute to national races, and none of them expect the GOP to waste money campaigning in California.

You have temporal lobe damage if you think that needing to campaign in Texas is somehow a lesson learned from 2016 - Hillary lost because she was spending money in Texas and Georgia instead of making sure the blue wall would hold up.

Biden winning isn’t going to matter if Mitch McConnell is still senate majority leader and has the ability to stop anything from going to the floor, and it’s pretty clear that’s what he’ll do regardless of how much Biden wins by.


The Biden campaign said the Texas ad was part of a “mid-six-figure” investment also spread across Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.

Sooo, about one third of less than half a percent of what is going to be spent eventually? :lol

That works out to 0.067% of their available funds, assuming an eventual 250M war chest.

Tell me more about how this is a huge mistake.

[Will Hunting]

Sooo, about one third of less than half a percent of what is going to be spent eventually? :lol

That works out to 0.067% of their available funds, assuming an eventual 250M war chest.

Tell me more about how this is a huge mistake.
For that much money, they could carpet bomb Montana with anti Trump ads.

I also doubt this is the only campaign ad he’s going to run in Texas, this has all the making of more 2016 mental retardation.

[RandomGuy]

For that much money, they could carpet bomb Montana with anti Trump ads.

I also doubt this is the only campaign ad he’s going to run in Texas, this has all the making of more 2016 mental retardation.

500,000/3 = 167,000.

Tell me again how this is a "carpet bomb" in Montana. That gets you what? Five, maybe ten thirty second spots?

I have a good deal of respect for your opinion, but you try waaaay too hard for the "both sdies" cynical bullshit, and this is one of the rabbit holes that confirmation bias cynicism takes you.

You are trying to defend your statement, even when presented with evidence that the ad buy is likely infinitesimally small, both in relative and absolute terms.

I get it. We all do that. You seem to be one of the intelligent ones that can occasionally step back and examine their underlying assumptions though.

Is this really a huge mistake, or a blip?

[Will Hunting]

500,000/3 = 167,000.

Tell me again how this is a "carpet bomb" in Montana. That gets you what? Five, maybe ten thirty second spots?

I have a good deal of respect for your opinion, but you try waaaay too hard for the "both sdies" cynical bullshit, and this is one of the rabbit holes that confirmation bias cynicism takes you.

You are trying to defend your statement, even when presented with evidence that the ad buy is likely infinitesimally small, both in relative and absolute terms.

I get it. We all do that. You seem to be one of the intelligent ones that can occasionally step back and examine their underlying assumptions though.

Is this really a huge mistake, or a blip?
If this is the only ad buy they do in Texas, then I’d agree it really won’t matter, but that wouldn’t make any sense. You don’t make one ad buy in a state one time and then abandon efforts to win the state afterwards.

Ive said for months that trying to win the populous expensive states that either don’t have a senate race (Florida) or have an unwinnable senate race (Texas) is a waste of money. I think that’s even more the case given where polls are now, focus on the states that Biden needs to win and the states with winnable senate races.

[RandomGuy]

If this is the only ad buy they do in Texas, then I’d agree it really won’t matter, but that wouldn’t make any sense. You don’t make one ad buy in a state one time and then abandon efforts to win the state afterwards.

Ive said for months that trying to win the populous expensive states that either don’t have a senate race (Florida) or have an unwinnable senate race (Texas) is a waste of money. I think that’s even more the case given where polls are now, focus on the states that Biden needs to win and the states with winnable senate races.

Thinking strategically:
You might not get any traction statewide, but if you coordinate your ad buys with local campaigns in close state and federal representative races... that might make sense. Leverage off of Trump hate, to win a few close races.

I would note that the map has shifted again.

Here is the default 270 to win:
https://www.270towin.com/map-images/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

[RandomGuy]

That's been the consistent message to the lefty Bernie bro types

Fortunately for the Dems, go ahead stick it in deeper seems to be their go to reply.

Here is the blue wave, almost worst case for your fascist party scenario, with Trump losing all the swing states.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/V4m0b

You still also haven't explained the spike, sporto.

[Reck]

1286360902548299776

Ouch. Ouch. Ouch

[spurraider21]

1286360902548299776

Ouch. Ouch. Ouch
i guess they saw the chris wallace interview

[rmt]

1283507997109518341

:lol Getting laughable now.

Is this the same Quinnipiac poll that has Biden up +13 in Florida? Keep believing these polls.

[Reck]

Is this the same Quinnipiac poll that has Biden up +13 in Florida? Keep believing these polls.

I guess this is the only play you guys have. Deny reality.

Between Trump and Desantis botch jobs handling the pandemic, do you find these numbers shocking? People are dying on their watch.

[TSA]

Is this the same Quinnipiac poll that has Biden up +13 in Florida? Keep believing these polls.

https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1286397831385960448

[ChumpDumper]

Always give Republicans +10 on any poll in Florida since they do such a good job with mail in voters.:tu

[Reck]

https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1286397831385960448

Ok cool.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Spin away on how no one should take (Insert pollsters not to be taken seriously from this list)

:lol

[TSA]

Ok cool.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Spin away on how no one should take (Insert pollsters not to be taken seriously from this list)

:lol

https://twitter.com/2xBeepBoopVodka/status/1286367005780697092

[Will Hunting]

I guess this is the only play you guys have. Deny reality.

Between Trump and Desantis botch jobs handling the pandemic, do you find these numbers shocking? People are dying on their watch.
They ignore the fact that polls from 4 years ago never showed as wide a margin as the polls are showing now.

Quinnipac conducted a poll just days before the election in 2016 that had Clinton winning Florida by a point, instead she lost by 1.25%, a 2.25% deviation (well within the margin of error, a poll conducted showing a 1% margin is basically a coin flip). If a pollster that was only off by 2.25% 4 years ago is showing Biden up by 13 points that’s not a good thing for Trump :lol.

The only state in 2016 where the polling was way outside the margin of error was Wisconsin. The narrative that the polls were way off is blown out of proportion. The polls conducted in Michigan and Pennsylvania leading up to the election showed a tightening race.

IMO the race is going to tighten up between now and Election Day but the polling right now shows Biden up by a much larger margin than Shillary was ever up by.

[spurraider21]

https://twitter.com/2xBeepBoopVodka/status/1286367005780697092
the polls arent necessarily based on registrations, its likely voters.

doesnt mean they got it right, but i dont know if that is the correct criticism

[Reck]

Ah yes, the good old BUT THERE ARE MORE DEMOCRATS POLLED.

Except if you want to tossed that out and go with the independents instead, Trump is losing them


independents back Biden 48 - 32 percent,

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

Anymore questions?

[TSA]

They ignore the fact that polls from 4 years ago never showed as wide a margin as the polls are showing now.


Same time frame 2016

[TSA]

the polls arent necessarily based on registrations, its likely voters.

doesnt mean they got it right, but i dont know if that is the correct criticism

I don’t know how to quote just a single tweet. I was just trying to post the second tweet with Florida polls from 2016.

[Will Hunting]

Three Fox News polls also came out today showing Sleepy Joe up 11, 13 and 9 points and PA, MN and MI respectively :lol

All these polls are probably bullshit though, I’m sure that’s why Trump just replaced his campaign manager.

[spurraider21]

Three Fox News polls also came out today showing Sleepy Joe up 11, 13 and 9 points and PA, MN and MI respectively :lol

All these polls are probably bullshit though, I’m sure that’s why Trump just replaced his campaign manager.
suppression polls meant to give democrat voters a false sense of security, decreasing the urgency to go out and vote

[Will Hunting]

Same time frame 2016
Yeah didn’t realize there were ever polls that had Shillary up 10+ points in Florida, my mistake on that.

Keep in mind, Hillary’s campaign floundered in the months that followed those polls. Probably wasn’t up by 10 points, but was probably up in Florida when those polls were taken.

[rmt]

I guess this is the only play you guys have. Deny reality.

Between Trump and Desantis botch jobs handling the pandemic, do you find these numbers shocking? People are dying on their watch.

Oh, I'm only one person living in the "epicenter" of the pandemic, talking to people here, seeing bumper stickers and yard signs. Who has kids going to college in other areas of said states, who follows closely the happenings in the middle of the Democratic stronghold in the state. But you go ahead, and believe in that 13 point lead.

[RandomGuy]

I don’t know how to quote just a single tweet. I was just trying to post the second tweet with Florida polls from 2016.

muh 2016

keep fighting the last fight. :lol

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/2xBeepBoopVodka/status/1286367005780697092

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

That is the base forecast.



Here is a blue wave, with Biden taking the tossups.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/BlArp



Again, worst case Trump loses the leans, Texas included:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KQzm6.png

[ElNono]

suppression polls meant to give democrat voters a false sense of security, decreasing the urgency to go out and vote

If you don't take polls, I can't be down by a wide margin!

[Reck]

Oh, I'm only one person living in the "epicenter" of the pandemic, talking to people here, seeing bumper stickers and yard signs. Who has kids going to college in other areas of said states, who follows closely the happenings in the middle of the Democratic stronghold in the state. But you go ahead, and believe in that 13 point lead.

Its just a poll. A Snapchat in time so relax.

There isn’t a conspiracy or fake polls. If it bothers you that Biden is leading in your home state, don’t worry, have it.

Trump is still trailing in the 3 states he won in 16 to win it. He’s already completely lost Michigan.

[TSA]

Its just a poll. A Snapchat in time so relax.

There isn’t a conspiracy or fake polls. If it bothers you that Biden is leading in your home state, don’t worry, have it.

Trump is still trailing in the 3 states he won in 16 to win it. He’s already completely lost Michigan.

Vintage 2016 Reck. Will you “head back upstairs” again if your boy loses? :rollin

[Reck]

Vintage 2016 Reck. Will you “head back upstairs” again if your boy loses? :rollin

The problem with the BuT tHE POlls aRE wrRONg LikE IN 2016 crowd is that they think Biden is as bad as Hillary. He’s not.

Biden is cleaning Trump’s clock in the group he won in 2016.

[ElNono]

tbh, don't remember the Trumptards complaining about the 2018 polls?

[RandomGuy]

tbh, don't remember the Trumptards complaining about the 2018 polls?

Trump wasn't on the ballot, officially. I would guess he figured prominently in a lot of peoples minds when they did vote.

[Splits]

https://twitter.com/2xBeepBoopVodka/status/1286367005780697092

lol why not show the last polls before the election? disingenuous piece of shit is why

https://i.imgur.com/zE4qNML.png

Every poll within MoE

[Splits]

I don’t know how to quote just a single tweet. I was just trying to post the second tweet with Florida polls from 2016.

1) those weren't Florida polls, they were national
2) they are cherry picked. Firstie Feather is a dishonest piece of shit like you. Actual national polls from "this time" in 2016:

https://i.imgur.com/4EjdjGs.png

[Splits]

Yeah didn’t realize there were ever polls that had Shillary up 10+ points in Florida, my mistake on that.

Keep in mind, Hillary’s campaign floundered in the months that followed those polls. Probably wasn’t up by 10 points, but was probably up in Florida when those polls were taken.

Because there weren't. You got fed some fake news by TSA and anonymous twitter