2020 blue wave

[Will Hunting]

Because there weren't. You got fed some fake news by TSA and anonymous twitter
Yup. Stupid of me to believe him, I didn’t think there were ever polls showing her winning Florida by that much, I remembered all of them being within the margin of error.

[Splits]

Quinnipiac Florida polls from "this time" in 2016 were Trump +3 and Clinton +1. Both ended up within final MoE

https://i.imgur.com/slbOZf2.png

[boutons_deux]

Hillary was hurt by Comey violating FBI protocol with a much-publicized national TV announcement that Hillary would not be indicted AND went on to trash her, when FBI protocol was "no indicment? then no comment"

Pootin had his little whores at wikileaks dribbling out weekly shit from Dem emails stolen by Pootin, which the press concentrated on, denying Hillary any traction in her campaign.

ST Trash fellators trying to say 2020 will be a repeat of 2016 are, have always been, fucking stupid.

"observers" expect Trash's defense attorney Barr will drop a Russia-gate bomb as October surprise.

[TSA]

lol why not show the last polls before the election? disingenuous piece of shit is why

https://i.imgur.com/zE4qNML.png

Every poll within MoE

Why not show the last polls before the election? Because that wasn't the time frame Reck was talking about.

[TSA]

1) those weren't Florida polls, they were national
2) they are cherry picked. Firstie Feather is a dishonest piece of shit like you. Actual national polls from "this time" in 2016:

https://i.imgur.com/4EjdjGs.png

I just checked and you are correct. They were national. My mistake for not checking first.

[spurraider21]

:lol damn

[RandomGuy]

1) those weren't Florida polls, they were national
2) they are cherry picked. Firstie Feather is a dishonest piece of shit like you. Actual national polls from "this time" in 2016:

https://i.imgur.com/4EjdjGs.png

Lying by omission is pretty much his MO. Mostly because that is the same way his sources lie.

[RandomGuy]

Hillary was hurt by Comey violating FBI protocol with a much-publicized national TV announcement that Hillary would not be indicted AND went on to trash her, when FBI protocol was "no indicment? then no comment"

Pootin had his little whores at wikileaks dribbling out weekly shit from Dem emails stolen by Pootin, which the press concentrated on, denying Hillary any traction in her campaign.

ST Trash fellators trying to say 2020 will be a repeat of 2016 are, have always been, fucking stupid.

"observers" expect Trash's defense attorney Barr will drop a Russia-gate bomb as October surprise.

I think what a lot of Republicans overlook is that Putin's real main goal is not to specifically help them, but rather to sow discord and weaken the US. If helping Democrats furthers that goal, they can, and have done that. The ones that aren't stupid enough to buy into the Trump line of "its all fake" have looked the other way.

You know if any outside country had been helping Democrats they would be screaming bloody murder.

[Reck]

1286670008354037761

Interesting thread. Biden is beating Trump in the money train as well.

[TSA]

Lying by omission is pretty much his MO. Mostly because that is the same way his sources lie.

I didn't lie by omission and I don't lie by omission, I posted something that wasn't accurate and admitted it. I've seen you do the same, not a big deal.

[TSA]

I think what a lot of Republicans overlook is that Putin's real main goal is not to specifically help them, but rather to sow discord and weaken the US. If helping Democrats furthers that goal, they can, and have done that. The ones that aren't stupid enough to buy into the Trump line of "its all fake" have looked the other way.

You know if any outside country had been helping Democrats they would be screaming bloody murder.https://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/ukraine-sabotage-trump-backfire-233446

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/did-ukraine-try-to-interfere-in-the-2016-election/

[RandomGuy]

I didn't lie by omission and I don't lie by omission, I posted something that wasn't accurate and admitted it. I've seen you do the same, not a big deal.

My bad. It was a simple error on your part. Apologies.

A lot of the sources you quote do exactly that though. They always leave out some bit of important information in order to present the best possible propaganda. Twitter is a sewer of stuff like that mainly because the medium is structured to do that.

[Will Hunting]

Dickenlooper now only up 6 on Gardner after previously having a double digit lead. It’s going to really suck if the Dems throw away the easiest senate gain they have in this election because the DNC preferred a guy who’s under investigation for campaign finance violations over a guy who wants universal healthcare.

[Reck]

1288448975708790785

https://queencitybeerleague.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/white-flag-gif.png

[Reck]

Dickenlooper now only up 6 on Gardner after previously having a double digit lead. It’s going to really suck if the Dems throw away the easiest senate gain they have in this election because the DNC preferred a guy who’s under investigation for campaign finance violations over a guy who wants universal healthcare.

To be fair, same poll has Biden up 13 points on Trump.

If Biden carries the state by such margin, Hickenlooper will no doubt benefit from that. I'm a novice at this but has there ever been such a case where a presidential candidate wins a state by double digits but a senate seat goes the other way entirely?

[baseline bum]

To be fair, same poll has Biden up 13 points on Trump.

If Biden carries the state by such margin, Hickenlooper will no doubt benefit from that. I'm a novice at this but has there ever been such a case where a presidential candidate wins a state by double digits but a senate seat goes the other way entirely?

Manchin in WV would be one quick example.

[Reck]

Manchin in WV would be one quick example.

Oh yeah good one. Forgot all about dino Manchin.

[Will Hunting]

To be fair, same poll has Biden up 13 points on Trump.

If Biden carries the state by such margin, Hickenlooper will no doubt benefit from that. I'm a novice at this but has there ever been such a case where a presidential candidate wins a state by double digits but a senate seat goes the other way entirely?
Susan Collins in 2008.

[Will Hunting]

If Biden wins Colorado by double digits it means that senate seat was a lost opportunity to put a progressive in the senate who’d advocate for left wing ideals. I thought the whole point of Dickenlooper was how “electable” he is, that doesn’t jive with “Well Biden will win the state by double digits so Dickenlooper being an unpopular piece of shit doesn’t matter!”

This is an example of how the DNCs whole premise “we want left wing ideals as much as the progressives do but progressives don’t win elections!” is disingenuous bullshit, even in states and districts that are dark blue they fight tooth and nail against whoever the progressive candidate is. The “electability” angle is a red herring people like Chuck Jewmer and Pelosi use as an excuse to keep the Democratic Party as far to the right as possible.

[Reck]

If Biden wins Colorado by double digits it means that senate seat was a lost opportunity to put a progressive in the senate who’d advocate for left wing ideals. I thought the whole point of Dickenlooper was how “electable” he is, that doesn’t jive with “Well Biden will win the state by double digits so Dickenlooper being an unpopular piece of shit doesn’t matter!”

This is an example of how the DNCs whole premise “we want left wing ideals as much as the progressives do but progressives don’t win elections!” is disingenuous bullshit, even in states and districts that are dark blue they fight tooth and nail against whoever the progressive candidate is. The “electability” angle is a red herring people like Chuck Jewmer and Pelosi use as an excuse to keep the Democratic Party as far to the right as possible.

Right now its just 1 poll. We'll see if this is a trend in a couple of weeks, month from now.

In theory this should be a shoe in for democrats. Gardner won his senate seat on a redwave year. Dean Heller was in the same boat Gardner is in right now.

[RandomGuy]

If Biden wins Colorado by double digits it means that senate seat was a lost opportunity to put a progressive in the senate who’d advocate for left wing ideals. I thought the whole point of Dickenlooper was how “electable” he is, that doesn’t jive with “Well Biden will win the state by double digits so Dickenlooper being an unpopular piece of shit doesn’t matter!”

This is an example of how the DNCs whole premise “we want left wing ideals as much as the progressives do but progressives don’t win elections!” is disingenuous bullshit, even in states and districts that are dark blue they fight tooth and nail against whoever the progressive candidate is. The “electability” angle is a red herring people like Chuck Jewmer and Pelosi use as an excuse to keep the Democratic Party as far to the right as possible.

This. These people can't age out fast enough IMO.

[Obi Juan Kenobi]

1286670008354037761

Interesting thread. Biden is beating Trump in the money train as well.

Republicans tend to make more money than Democrats on average which makes this even more impressive!

[AaronY]

Dickenlooper now only up 6 on Gardner after previously having a double digit lead. It’s going to really suck if the Dems throw away the easiest senate gain they have in this election because the DNC preferred a guy who’s under investigation for campaign finance violations over a guy who wants universal healthcare.
Yeah, if 2020 proved anything its that you guys are awesome at winning elections :lmao

[AaronY]

All kidding aside I feel its great that progressives have places like Twitter and spurstalk where they can go to feel relevant. Been a rough year for them tbh

[ElNono]

sup Aaron, when is old Joe getting thawed for the election, tbh?

[baseline bum]

sup Aaron, when is old Joe getting thawed for the election, tbh?

At the rate our Dear Leader is currently going might not make sense until the victory speech tbh, assuming we still have a nation by November.

[ElNono]

At the rate our Dear Leader is currently going might not make sense until the victory speech tbh, assuming we still have a nation by November.

IMVHO, there needs to be at least proof he's not dead sometime before the election?

[baseline bum]

IMVHO, there needs to be at least proof he's not dead sometime before the election?

His corpse would still be an improvement as president. The COVID plan would be the same but he wouldn't be sending his SS into cities. So a dead Biden would still be the winning ticket for me.

[baseline bum]

IMVHO, there needs to be at least proof he's not dead sometime before the election?

His corpse would still be an improvement as president. The COVID plan would be the same but he wouldn't be sending his SS into cities. So a dead Biden would still be the winning ticket for me.

[spurraider21]

All kidding aside I feel its great that progressives have places like Twitter and spurstalk where they can go to feel relevant. Been a rough year for them tbh
as long as trump doesn't ring

[boutons_deux]

The COVID plan would be the same

no, Hillary would have not gutted pandemic preparedness so when she got warning in Nov 19, she would ordered CDC, FDA, DHS,etc to start preparing response to a pandemic, and warned state medical groups to be on the lookout for Wuhan symptoms. Probably would have accepted the 60K C19 tests from the WHO that Trash refused.

Trash fucked up EVERY possible way, and that continues pushing for businesses and schools to re=open even when "his" states have exploding number cases.

[baseline bum]

no, Hillary would have not gutted pandemic preparedness so when she got warning in Nov 19, she would ordered CDC, FDA, DHS,etc to start preparing response to a pandemic, and warned state medical groups to be on the lookout for Wuhan symptoms. Probably would have accepted the 60K C19 tests from the WHO that Trash refused.

Trash fucked up EVERY possible way, and that continues pushing for businesses and schools to re=open even when "his" states have exploding number cases.

I'm not talking about Hillary, of course she would have been 100x better than Trump on COVID. I was saying a dead man and Trump have the exact same COVID plan. Namely, nothing whatsoever.

[Reck]

At the rate our Dear Leader is currently going might not make sense until the victory speech tbh, assuming we still have a nation by November.

Looks like we may not.

1288818160389558273

[RandomGuy]

1286670008354037761

Interesting thread. Biden is beating Trump in the money train as well.

Mercers have stated they are out. That is a big loss.

[RandomGuy]

I didn't lie by omission and I don't lie by omission, I posted something that wasn't accurate and admitted it. I've seen you do the same, not a big deal.

I disagree. You lie by omission all the time.

Repeatedly failing to ask a fair question is a lie of omission. I can provide more than one example of you failing to answer fair questions, by deflecting and simply ignoring.

If you can't admit information that may be inimical to your position, that is a lie of omission, because it withholds information that could and should be used in determining truth.

[Will Hunting]

Hopefully Arpaio (yeah, him, the guy Trump pardoned) wins his sheriff primary today. If he’s on the ballot in November Latino turnout in Phoenix is going to be through the roof to vote against him.

[Will Hunting]

I'm not talking about Hillary, of course she would have been 100x better than Trump on COVID. I was saying a dead man and Trump have the exact same COVID plan. Namely, nothing whatsoever.
I’d say a dead man has a better plan. Being dead and saying nothing about COVID does less harm than telling Americans “we’re going to go from 15 cases to 0 cases!” making everyone believe it’s not big deal.

[Reck]

Hopefully Arpaio (yeah, him, the guy Trump pardoned) wins his sheriff primary today. If he’s on the ballot in November Latino turnout in Phoenix is going to be through the roof to vote against him.

:lmao he’s running again?

Arizona republicans don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. Re-running loser candidates who couldn’t win in the past now think they can win when the Republican Party as a whole is in shambles with Trump as their dear leader.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao he’s running again?

Arizona republicans don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. Re-running loser candidates who couldn’t win in the past now think they can win when the Republican Party as a whole is in shambles with Trump as their dear leader.
He’s running for Sheriff against two other candidates, one of which was also his deputy and violated the same judge’s order on racial discrimination that Arpaio violated :lol

Arpaio lost by 11 points in 2016 :lol, and since then Maricopa County’s millennial/Latino population has only grown. How could they not find a moderate Republican to run for Sheriff? In the last 10 years Arizona went from being one of the most far right states in the country to potentially being the next Colorado because of how bad the GOP candidates they’ve had to choose from are :lol

[Will Hunting]

Sucks that Kobach lost, that senate seat definitely goes to the Dems if he’s on the ticket.

In better news, Cori Bush upsets Wall Street’s Uncle Tom William Clay in the Missouri 1st primary. That’s another progressive pickup in congress, I think black voters are finally really fucking pissed off.

[RandomGuy]

I’d say a dead man has a better plan. Being dead and saying nothing about COVID does less harm than telling Americans “we’re going to go from 15 cases to 0 cases!” making everyone believe it’s not big deal.

It is a good point. I would go further: A dead man wouldn't have been able to disband the white house task force, or get rid of the CDC embed in the China health ministry.

Trump not only did nothing... he actively damaged our ability to react quickly and appropriately.

[RandomGuy]

He’s running for Sheriff against two other candidates, one of which was also his deputy and violated the same judge’s order on racial discrimination that Arpaio violated :lol

Arpaio lost by 11 points in 2016 :lol, and since then Maricopa County’s millennial/Latino population has only grown. How could they not find a moderate Republican to run for Sheriff? In the last 10 years Arizona went from being one of the most far right states in the country to potentially being the next Colorado because of how bad the GOP candidates they’ve had to choose from are :lol

Given the chance to double down on racism, they did.

The racists who used to be a vocal fringe... now are not.

They used to put work into the "we're not racists, but...". Now, they don't even appear to be trying, other than getting rid of Steve King. Good on them for that much at least.

[AaronY]

as long as trump doesn't ring
From your lips to God's ears

[AaronY]

sup Aaron, when is old Joe getting thawed for the election, tbh?
They thawed him out the other day and he was talking about working on muscle cars with his dad and with his sons (something normies in traditional or middle America go apeshit over in case you are in Brooklyn atm and don't know that) and leftists were freaking out over it. Was a good 10 seconds if you missed it

[AaronY]

Tbh I am going to inherit a 71 Mach 1 mustang when my old man passes on and I am actually looking forward to it now that I am a little older. You can barely see out of the back of it lol but with these backup cameras you can install theres even ones you can leave on all the time. Gonna have to put AC in it though lol. No one mentions how half those old muscle cars are insufferable due to lack of air conditioning

[Will Hunting]

They thawed him out the other day and he was talking about working on muscle cars with his dad and with his sons (something normies in traditional or middle America go apeshit over in case you are in Brooklyn atm and don't know that) and leftists were freaking out over it. Was a good 10 seconds if you missed it
They should do a lot more of that, tbh. It’s the kinda pointless drivel that middle America baby boomers masterbate to.

[AaronY]

They should do a lot more of that, tbh. It’s the kinda pointless drivel that middle America baby boomers masterbate to.
You're too cool to be into old cars? Too busy fighting the class struggle

[Will Hunting]

You're too cool to be into old cars? Too busy fighting the class struggle
I was being serious tbh, I liked the way he was presented in the car thing. They should do more videos like that.

[AaronY]

I think working on cars with your dad is a symptom of "late stage capitalism" and a sign of imperialist materialism or something. Weird these people don't connect with normies

[AaronY]

I was being serious tbh, I liked the way he was presented in the car thing. They should do more videos like that.it's

Oh, ok lol.

[AaronY]

This is the exact car my dads leaving me lol. The rear view mirror gives you a good view of the back seat and trunk hood/spoiler lol

https://barrettjacksoncdn.azureedge.net/staging/carlist/items/Fullsize/Cars/222766/222766_Rear_3-4_Web.jpg

[Will Hunting]

it's

Oh, ok lol.
You seem to think I’m a full blown rose Twitter BernieBro lol. I only supported him after the candidates I actually wanted didn’t run or dropped out. My preference always was what I’d call a moderate progressive like Sherrod Brown or Jay Inslee, there just weren’t any of those left by the time primaries actually started.

[AaronY]

You seem to think I’m a full blown rose Twitter BernieBro lol. I only supported him after the candidates I actually wanted didn’t run or dropped out. My preference always was what I’d call a moderate progressive like Sherrod Brown or Jay Inslee, there just weren’t any of those left by the time primaries actually started.
Wtf I love Sherrod brown. I think he should have run but Biden probably still would have won. VPs of two term presidents who are popular in their party like Obama have a big built-in advantage in terms of name recognition.

[Will Hunting]

You're too cool to be into old cars? Too busy fighting the class struggle
To answer this, I’m too lazy to be into old cars that I’d need to restore, but the last car I owned (before moving to a city where I didn’t need one) was an Audi S7. Complete waste of money and stupid purchase that I’m glad I basically broke even on after the car got totaled by a truck, but my god was that thing fun to drive.

[Will Hunting]

Wtf I love Sherrod brown. I think he should have run but Biden probably still would have won. VPs of two term presidents who are probably in their party like Obama have a big built-in advantage in terms of name recognition.
:lol I’d find the posts if searching wasn’t disabled, but he was the guy I was pitching as the best candidate in early 2019 when it looked like he’d run. I was pedaling him before I ever supported Bernie in 2020. I even called his office and pledged to contribute the max to his campaign if he ran.

[Reck]

Beto was my dude.

I dont know what happens to these guys after they lose. He was a complete all around guy in 2018 and almost won Texas. You even had Republicans shitting their pants because if he ran for president he'd win.

He just went off the rails with the guns thing.

[RandomGuy]

:lol I’d find the posts if searching wasn’t disabled, but he was the guy I was pitching as the best candidate in early 2019 when it looked like he’d run. I was pedaling him before I ever supported Bernie in 2020. I even called his office and pledged to contribute the max to his campaign if he ran.

You can do an ersatz search via google. Have to include a few terms like "spurstalk" and the user name if you can remember it.

[RandomGuy]

:lol I’d find the posts if searching wasn’t disabled, but he was the guy I was pitching as the best candidate in early 2019 when it looked like he’d run. I was pedaling him before I ever supported Bernie in 2020. I even called his office and pledged to contribute the max to his campaign if he ran.

Try this in google:

will hunting spurstalk forum sherrod brown

That string brought up quite a few threads. Takes a bit to comb through, but if you are reasonably sure what you are looking for, you may get close enough to page through things.

[Will Hunting]

Now that the most recent polling shows Biden down 7 points in Texas, it's time to abandon the state and stop wasting money there. If Trump's lead narrows to a point where Biden can win Texas, then he's dominating everywhere else and it doesn't matter.

The fact they're dumping millions into the #FlipTexasBlue circle jerk while Trump is mailbombing Republicans in North Carolina to make sure they vote is pure lunacy. Right now 80+% of Biden's campaigning should be done in these states (in order of priority):

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Arizona (more important than Florida since it also has a senate race)
North Carolina (more important than Florida since it also has a senate race)
Florida
Michigan (lower on the list since Biden's lead is more solid)
Georgia
Nevada
Minnesota (lower on the list since even Hillary couldn't fuck this one up and Trump's approval here is way down)

[Reck]

Now that the most recent polling shows Biden down 7 points in Texas, it's time to abandon the state and stop wasting money there. If Trump's lead narrows to a point where Biden can win Texas, then he's dominating everywhere else and it doesn't matter.

The fact they're dumping millions into the #FlipTexasBlue circle jerk while Trump is mailbombing Republicans in North Carolina to make sure they vote is pure lunacy. Right now 80+% of Biden's campaigning should be done in these states (in order of priority):

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Arizona (more important than Florida since it also has a senate race)
North Carolina (more important than Florida since it also has a senate race)
Florida
Michigan (lower on the list since Biden's lead is more solid)
Georgia
Nevada
Minnesota

Agreed with the exception that I'd give up Arizona as a pick up state in favor of getting Florida.

Kelly is most certainly going to win there. Biden is more flaky and honestly, he doesn't need to. Biden Winning Florida means Trump has indeed no path from any which way.

[Will Hunting]

Agreed with the exception that I'd give up Arizona as a pick up state in favor of getting Florida.

Kelly is most certainly going to win there. Biden is more flaky and honestly, he doesn't need to. Biden Winning Florida means Trump has indeed no path from any which way.
Keep in mind AZ was one of the few states in 2016 where Clinton (not Trump) outperformed polling data. It's just my hunch but I think the same applies now. There isn't the huge block of uneducated rural fervent Trump supporters or evangelicals in AZ that pollsters struggle to account for the way there is in the midwest (or Florida for that matter). The rural areas in AZ (other than Mohave County) actually lean more Democratic.

IMO Arizona is the next state to follow the Colorado/Virginia trend, but Biden winning it this year expedites the process the same way Obama winning in Virginia/Colorado in 08 expedited the process for those states. The Senate Dems are also going to need Sinema to be firmly in their corner, and she's not going to vote for something like a public option if she thinks she's still in a red state. Someone like Joe Manchin has more freedom to vote however he wants to because he's a fixture in WV at this point.

I know the polling doesn't say so but I think AZ or more winnable than Florida is. The governor is a scumbag but it's already a state where 80% vote by mail so it's not as easy to suppress (while we both know DeathSantis is going to fight tooth and nail to stop suppress voters in Broward County). It's a much easier backup plan to Wisconsin.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Bit over two months.

Roughly 73% chance of Biden win.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[RandomGuy]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/consensus-2020-senate-forecast

Senate looking dead effing even.

My best guess is 50-50 split, with VP casting a LOT of votes with 49D-51R a very close second

[RandomGuy]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/consensus-2020-house-forecast

Dems keep the house. Pelosi stays on as Speaker.

[Reck]

The Begging: Politics edition
1296989517027487744
Will Hunting Get in here.

The GOP must have stopped all cash flow to her campaign. How loathesome can you get? Telling your supporters to starve themselves so you can keep licking Trump's balls? Jesus

[Will Hunting]

The Begging: Politics edition
1296989517027487744
Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) Get in here.

The GOP must have stopped all cash flow to her campaign. How loathesome can you get? Telling your supporters to starve themselves so you can keep licking Trump's balls? Jesus
Saw this. She's done. I doubt Gardner's campaign is getting much GOP funding now.

I think Collins is fucked now too with Maine farmers getting raped by Dejoy. There's a reason the GOP is fighting tooth and nail to suppress the vote in North Carolina, them keeping the senate depends on it.

[boutons_deux]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/consensus-2020-house-forecast

Dems keep the house. Pelosi stays on as Speaker.

and there will be NO progress, no solutions, anything positive, just constipated gridlock, maintaing the status quo for the oligarchy, if Repugs keep the Senate and continue to block EVERY bill from the Dem House.

[DMC]

Beto was my dude.

I dont know what happens to these guys after they lose. He was a complete all around guy in 2018 and almost won Texas. You even had Republicans shitting their pants because if he ran for president he'd win.

He just went off the rails with the guns thing.

Your people lose a lot. Your "dude" was too politically retarded to ride the wave others created for him, even with that queer ass skateboard he had. It's amusing you think it's one thing he said that cost him his chance, because in reality he never had a chance nationally.

[rmt]

Beto was my dude.

I dont know what happens to these guys after they lose. He was a complete all around guy in 2018 and almost won Texas. You even had Republicans shitting their pants because if he ran for president he'd win.

He just went off the rails with the guns thing.

smh

[Spurtacular]

Keep in mind AZ was one of the few states in 2016 where Clinton (not Trump) outperformed polling data. It's just my hunch but I think the same applies now. There isn't the huge block of uneducated rural fervent Trump supporters or evangelicals in AZ that pollsters struggle to account for the way there is in the midwest (or Florida for that matter). The rural areas in AZ (other than Mohave County) actually lean more Democratic.

IMO Arizona is the next state to follow the Colorado/Virginia trend, but Biden winning it this year expedites the process the same way Obama winning in Virginia/Colorado in 08 expedited the process for those states. The Senate Dems are also going to need Sinema to be firmly in their corner, and she's not going to vote for something like a public option if she thinks she's still in a red state. Someone like Joe Manchin has more freedom to vote however he wants to because he's a fixture in WV at this point.

I know the polling doesn't say so but I think AZ or more winnable than Florida is. The governor is a scumbag but it's already a state where 80% vote by mail so it's not as easy to suppress (while we both know DeathSantis is going to fight tooth and nail to stop suppress voters in Broward County). It's a much easier backup plan to Wisconsin.

I think AZ's more akin to GA and TX (a pipe dream). But the Democrats are doing all they can to cram illegals there and get out the vote, so Lord knows.

[Spurtacular]

smh

Imagine admitting Beto's your guy. :lol

[Ef-man]

Between admitting Beto was my guy or being the derp, yes, a thousand times I would choose Beto.

Lord yes and a thousand more times yes rather than being the wretched and most vile derp for one second.

Most pathetic creature in the forums.

A thousand lashes of the whip rather than being known as a creature lower than the village idiot.

Why Lord, why have you forsaken us?

Where is that old priest and the young priest? Why is the holy water boiling? Is the derp near?

[Spurtacular]

Between admitting Beto was my guy or being the derp, yes, a thousand times I would choose Beto.

Lord yes and a thousand more times yes rather than being the wretched and most vile derp for one second.

Most pathetic creature in the forums.

A thousand lashes of the whip rather than being known as a creature lower than the village idiot.

Why Lord, why have you forsaken us?

Where is that old priest and the young priest? Why is the holy water boiling? Is the derp near?

Get a hold of yourself, blake. Just cos your woman fucks other dudes right in front of you, that's not on me. :lmao

[Ef-man]

Get a hold of yourself, blake. Just cos your woman fucks other dudes right in front of you, that's not on me. :lmao

Is there no end to derp’s endless blathering?

Derp, the thing that makes the town idiot feel smart.

Women come and then they go, trannies change their clothes too often in a day, but the derp, stands constant, reeking of desperation. Even trump is not as big an attention whore.

About this plague, it is mention in the good book - Ezekiel 23:20.

There is no getting rid of this curse. Should the earth quake, tear asunder, and bring him down whole, it would soon retch and spit him back upon us.

[Reck]

Imagine admitting Beto's your guy. :lol

Absolutely not an insult.

I was and remain a supporter of his. lol derp

[Ef-man]

The power of Christ compels you derp, be gone, be gone! Quick, Reck, the holy water!

[Spurtacular]

Absolutely not an insult.

I was and remain a supporter of his. lol derp

You have to proudly embrace betas like him in lieu of coming out to your parents.

[Will Hunting]

The Begging: Politics edition
1296989517027487744
Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) Get in here.

The GOP must have stopped all cash flow to her campaign. How loathesome can you get? Telling your supporters to starve themselves so you can keep licking Trump's balls? Jesus
:lmao the Lincoln Project is trolling the shit out of her for this. They're calling her MAGAMcSally and telling people to tweet food emojis to her.

[Reck]

:lmao the Lincoln Project is trolling the shit out of her for this. They're calling her MAGAMcSally and telling people to tweet food emojis to her.

Yeah she has been trending since last night and major news sites have picked this up. What a dumb cunt.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah she has been trending since last night and major news sites have picked this up. What a dumb cunt.
The GOP needs to stop spending money on her campaign and Gardner's campaign. If things get really bad for Trump, they should probably drop Collins too and focus on winning Iowa/Montana/Kansas so the Dems only have a 50-51 vote majority. IMO if they have a slim majority the GOP will be able to block most legislation. If the Dems win enough races and pick up 53-54 seats, I think there's a real shot they blow the filibuster up.

[baseline bum]

The GOP needs to stop spending money on her campaign and Gardner's campaign. If things get really bad for Trump, they should probably drop Collins too and focus on winning Iowa/Montana/Kansas so the Dems only have a 50-51 vote majority. IMO if they have a slim majority the GOP will be able to block most legislation. If the Dems win enough races and pick up 53-54 seats, I think there's a real shot they blow the filibuster up.

Kansas isn't actually winnable for the Democrats is it? No Kobach, no Sam Brownback to poison the ticket on the GOP side.

[Will Hunting]

Kansas isn't actually winnable for the Democrats is it? No Kobach, no Sam Brownback to poison the ticket on the GOP side.
Polls are within the margin of error. As bad as Kobach was Marshall isn’t a great candidate either and I think the trickle down Brownbackonomics were such a disaster in Kansas it did permanently flip a lot of Kansas City suburb voters blue.

[RandomGuy]

You have to proudly embrace betas like him in lieu of coming out to your parents.

uh-huh.

[Will Hunting]

1298289028983410693

September 1 is a big day.

[RandomGuy]

1298289028983410693

September 1 is a big day.

??

[Will Hunting]

??
If Morse can beat Neal in the primary next week, it's a big victory for progressive Dems. Neal personifies the rot within the Democratic Party and the race is within the margin of error for the first time.

The primary race between Kennedy and Markey is also a big deal. If Markey wins Pelosi will look like the stupid whore she is for endorsing Kennedy.

[Will Hunting]

Keep in mind RandomGuy (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=1813), any rewrites to the tax code will have Richie Neal's fingerprints all over them if he wins his primary (he chairs the House Ways and Means Committee). Neal gets more PAC money from Wall Street, private equity and Big Pharma than any other Democrat in Congress, and he's equivocated about whether he'd support reversing Trump's corporate tax cut even though that's part of the Dem platform.

This one isn't just about being able to score a win for progressives, getting Neal out of office will have a material positive impact on both being able to replace Trump's 2017 tax plan and adding a public option to Obamacare.

[RandomGuy]

If Morse can beat Neal in the primary next week, it's a big victory for progressive Dems. Neal personifies the rot within the Democratic Party and the race is within the margin of error for the first time.

The primary race between Kennedy and Markey is also a big deal. If Markey wins Pelosi will look like the stupid whore she is for endorsing Kennedy.

Oh yeah, THAT one. That bothered me. The "corporate" Democrats that have attracted so much money for campaigns have basically subverted the entire process and the party itself.

Pelosi will have hard enough time managing the diverse group without having to needlessly create acrimony by backing someone who is out of touch with the zeitgeist. Ask Delay about that.

[Will Hunting]

Oh yeah, THAT one. That bothered me. The "corporate" Democrats that have attracted so much money for campaigns have basically subverted the entire process and the party itself.

Pelosi will have hard enough time managing the diverse group without having to needlessly create acrimony by backing someone who is out of touch with the zeitgeist. Ask Delay about that.
All I can say is that she's lucky the George Floyd shit didn't happen until late May/early June. Since that happened black voters have stopped being the loyal establishment supporters they used to be. If the COVID-19 outbreak and George Floyd shit ocurred earlier in the year, Sanders would be the candidate and a lot of the other incumbent Dems would have lost.

2022 will be interesting, with redistricting there will inevitably be vulnerable establishment incumbents that the Justice Dems/Sunrise movement can go after.

[Reck]

Get ready for a barrage of polling.

We have gotten our first huge batch of polls from Morning Consult.


Arizona


Before convention: Trump 47%, Biden 45%
Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 42%




Colorado


Before convention: Biden 51%, Trump 41%
Latest survey: Biden 51%, Trump 41%




Florida


Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 47%




Georgia


Before convention: Trump 47%, Biden 46%
Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 46%




Michigan


Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 42%




Minnesota


Before convention: Biden 50% Trump 42%
Latest survey: Biden, 50%, Trump 43%




North Carolina


Before convention: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 47%




Ohio


Before convention: Trump 49%, Biden 45%
Latest survey: Trump 50%, Biden 45%




Pennsylvania


Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 45%




Texas


Before convention: Trump 47%, Biden 46%
Latest survey: Trump 48%, Biden 47%




Wisconsin


Before convention: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 43%



https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/01/biden-gains-trump-wisconsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/

[Will Hunting]

Get ready for a barrage of polling.

We have gotten our first huge batch of polls from Morning Consult.























https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/01/biden-gains-trump-wisconsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/
I would love for them to prove me wrong, but I don't trust Morning Consult since it's online only. Less worried about the Emerson poll from yesterday though since it was intended to duplicate 2016 turnout levels. If Biden duplicates 2016 turnout levels then there's no question he's in trouble.

One nugget that no one is paying attention to - the Alaska Senate race is getting closer, and a poll released yesterday shows it tied up. I don't think the Lincoln Project would be dumping as much money into that race unless Gross had a shot at beating Sullivan.

Time to stop dumping money into the McGrath race and focus on the ones that are winnable.

[Spurtacular]

Get ready for a barrage of polling.

We have gotten our first huge batch of polls from Morning Consult.























https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/01/biden-gains-trump-wisconsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/

So fake. You won't be putting a penny on Biden winning Michigan/AZ/Wisconsin by double digits.

[Reck]

I would love for them to prove me wrong, but I don't trust Morning Consult since it's online only. Less worried about the Emerson poll from yesterday though since it was intended to duplicate 2016 turnout levels. If Biden duplicates 2016 turnout levels then there's no question he's in trouble.

One nugget that no one is paying attention to - the Alaska Senate race is getting closer, and a poll released yesterday shows it tied up. I don't think the Lincoln Project would be dumping as much money into that race unless Gross had a shot at beating Sullivan.

Time to stop dumping money into the McGrath race and focus on the ones that are winnable.

This from another poll

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-01/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-backed-him-2016?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Not sure how accurate these guys are as I haven’t heard from them either but losing over 9% support from 2016 has got to be almost lethal.

Specially when you know where your losing them from. Suburbs

[Will Hunting]

This from another poll

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-01/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-backed-him-2016?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Not sure how accurate these guys are as I haven’t heard from them either but losing over 9% support from 2016 has got to be almost lethal.

Specially when you know where your losing them from. Suburbs
The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll was worshipped by Trumpers 4 years ago, the fact it has Biden up by so much this time around matters if it's using the same methodology as last time. It had Trump winning the popular vote by several points in 2016.

[Will Hunting]

Here are the USC Dornsife polls from 2016 before any Trumper replies to my post and gets angry:

https://i.ibb.co/Wkr45bz/USC-Dornsife.png

[Splits]

The USC Dornslife/LA Times poll was worshipped by Trumpers 4 years ago, the fact it has Biden up by so much this time around matters if it's using the same methodology as last time. It had Trump winning the popular vote by several points in 2016.

3, with 4.5 moe so it was one of the few late polls which was outside. I read somewhere they're still using a lot of the same people they used last time, too lazy to look it up

[Will Hunting]

3, with 4.5 moe so it was one of the few late polls which was outside. I read somewhere they're still using a lot of the same people they used last time, too lazy to look it up
I like their methodology of polling the same group over time. You can't rely on that in and of itself but it's useful data.

[Reck]

Here are the USC Dornsife polls from 2016 before any Trumper replies to my post and gets angry:

https://i.ibb.co/Wkr45bz/USC-Dornsife.png

:wow

They went all in.


3, with 4.5 moe so it was one of the few late polls which was outside. I read somewhere they're still using a lot of the same people they used last time, too lazy to look it up

Then maybe that's why they feel so confident with their 9% stat. If the same people you polled in 2016 are telling you Trump's lost them then that gives it some merit in it's own way.

[Will Hunting]

:wow

They went all in.



Then maybe that's why they feel so confident with their 9% stat. If the same people you polled in 2016 are telling you Trump's lost them then that gives it some merit in it's own way.
The article you posted actually breaks it down well. It's effectively a net loss of 5% for Trump, 9% of Trumpers now voting Biden and 4% of Shillary voters now supporting Trump. If that's actually true and 5% of Trump's 2016 supporters are now voting for Biden, it's a landslide victory for Biden.

IMO both campaigns should be spending 80% of their money and resources on turnout and 20% on trying to flip undecided voters. The one thing almost every poll has shown this year is that there aren't very many undecided voters left.

[RandomGuy]

:wow

They went all in.



Then maybe that's why they feel so confident with their 9% stat. If the same people you polled in 2016 are telling you Trump's lost them then that gives it some merit in it's own way.

Eyup. Bear in mind what I call the +2 effect.

One person flipping their votes subtracts one from candidate A and adds one to candidate B, for a two vote swing in total differential. (A-B)

[Will Hunting]

Great article about the Massachusetts-01 primary race:

https://news.yahoo.com/massachusetts-primary-everything-wrong-democratic-095002780.html

[Reck]

Talking about Mass. Hope Kennedy loses.

Talk about someone running on name recognition alone.

"We need someone new that hasn't been in politics for over 40 years." Says the guy who is using his name to get by. :lol

[Will Hunting]

Talking about Mass. Hope Kennedy loses.

Talk about someone running on name recognition alone.

"We need someone new that hasn't been in politics for over 40 years." Says the guy who is using his name to get by. :lol
:lol Markey's ad where he says "It's time you start asking what your country can do for you" as a jab against the Kennedys was the goods

I'd be really surprised if Kennedy wins. The only reliable voting block he has is low information Puerto Ricans who can be persuaded by superficial PAC advertising and uneducated micks in South Boston who see the name Kennedy and cream themselves.

The more important race is MA-01. As long as Richie Neal chairs the Ways and Means Committee, you can forget about reversing Trump's tax cuts or adding a public option to Obamacare. Neal is further to the right than most Republicans on healthcare cost regulation, but of course that stupid whore Pelosi endorsed him. Don't forget that Neal also intentionally dragged his feet on getting Trump's tax returns.

It'll be a big step for this country whenever Pelosi finally dies off.

[Reck]

Markey has taken the lead for the first time.

Apparently, Kennedy has a massive lead with african american. If they turn out in huge numbers this might be closer than it needs to be.

From NYT

Kennedy has actually built his lead among Black voters: He’s up by 54%-35% among nonwhite voters, according to a Suffolk U. poll. So we’ll see which groups turned out today.

[Will Hunting]

Markey has taken the lead for the first time.

Apparently, Kennedy has a massive lead with african american. If they turn out in huge numbers this might be closer than it needs to be.

From NYT
In other words, he's built his lead with uninformed chimpanzees who vote based off name recognition and nothing else.

[Will Hunting]

Also Vox has Markey up by a solid 5%, with a disproportionate amount of Springfield precincts reporting which we knew would heavily favor Kennedy.

I'd be surprised if the Markey Kennedy race is even close.

Still too early to till in the Morse Neal race. Need more reporting outside of Springfield first.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah Markey is going to win by double digits. Pelosi should feel retarded for endorsing Kennedy.

[baseline bum]

Yeah Markey is going to win by double digits. Pelosi should feel retarded for endorsing Kennedy.

Where are you following the results?

[Reck]

In other words, he's built his lead with uninformed chimpanzees who vote based off name recognition and nothing else.

That little bitch is getting his teeth kicked in now.

Markey up by nearly 20k now.

[Will Hunting]

Where are you following the results?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/01/us/elections/results-massachusetts-primary-elections.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

https://www.vox.com/2020/9/1/21403485/live-results-massachusetts-primaries-senate-ed-markey-joe-kennedy

I'm following NYtimes more closely since Vox seems to be lagging behind them so far.

[baseline bum]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/01/us/elections/results-massachusetts-primary-elections.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive®ion=Navigation

https://www.vox.com/2020/9/1/21403485/live-results-massachusetts-primaries-senate-ed-markey-joe-kennedy

I'm following NYtimes more closely since Vox seems to be lagging behind them so far.

Ugh Morse is getting fucking wrecked :pctoss

[Will Hunting]

:lol Markey getting 80% of the vote in Cambridge....people who are smart really don't like Kennedy.

[Will Hunting]

Ugh Morse is getting fucking wrecked :pctoss
It's still too early and all the results are coming from Springfield so far, everyone knew he'd get demolished there. It's where all of Neal's political connections and minority voters are. We need more results from the Berkshires before writing him off.

[Reck]

Wasserman and political polls are calling it for Markey.

I’d be taking names if I was Markey. He’s been there forever and you had the establishment go against him in favor of Kennedy. I’m disappointed in Beto for even getting involved in this race.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah it's going to be tough for Morse at this point, and you might as well call the race for Markey now.

[baseline bum]

Fuck, NY Times calls the race for Neal

[spurraider21]

vox is ahead of nyt on their count right now. they called it for neal. gap tightened a bit between markey and kennedy

[Will Hunting]

The Democratic party should dump minorities and let cops kill them off in droves. Literally every progressive candidate gets stymied by them.

[spurraider21]

The Democratic party should dump minorities and let cops kill them off in droves. Literally every progressive candidate gets stymied by them.
oh, ok

[Will Hunting]

oh, ok
Am I wrong? Minorities regularly support the Democrat who's policies fuck them over.

It's no different than votingrepublican.jpeg if we're being honest, no one calls it out though because that would be racist.

[spurraider21]

Am I wrong? Minorities regularly support the Democrat who's policies fuck them over.

It's no different than votingrepublican.jpeg if we're being honest, no one calls it out though because that would be racist.
yes you are wrong about saying democrats should dump the minority vote and let them get killed off in droves

even the "moderate dem" block, while maybe not an ally during the primaries, is still critical to keep republicans out of office as much as possible

[Will Hunting]

yes you are wrong about saying democrats should dump the minority vote and let them get killed off in droves

even the "moderate dem" block, while maybe not an ally during the primaries, is still critical to keep republicans out of office as much as possible
If that's what's required for healthcare reform, so be it. As long as Neal chairs the Ways and Means Committee, we're not going to see any reform that address healthcare costs.

[Reck]

The Democratic party should dump minorities and let cops kill them off in droves. Literally every progressive candidate gets stymied by them.

Why did Kennedy get destroyed then?

Progressives just need to nibble at them for now. Cant expect to get all of them when for example black voters are way too entrenched with the stablishment so it takes some doing to rip them apart. Even Bernie who is arguably the most charmful, most likeable politician in a long long time couldn't even get 20% of the black vote.

[Will Hunting]

Why did Kennedy get destroyed then?

Progressives just need to neeble at them for now. Cant expect to get all of them when for example black voters are way too entrenched with the stablishment so it takes some doing to rip them apart. Even Bernie who is arguably the most charmful, most likeable politician in a long long time couldn't even get 20% of the black vote.
Because it was a statewide race with Kennedy. If he were just running Springfield he would have beat Markey. He ran up the score with educated white people who are capable of thinking beyond "muh dick" and "muh dick muthafucka".

If the black community being mired in poverty, crack addiction, harsh prison sentencing, and wrongful police killings doesn't get them to consider that maybe there's a change that's needed, I'm not sure what will.

[Will Hunting]

Well they were never voting for Morse because the black community is still homophobic AF
In this particular case it was Puerto Ricans, but to you're point they hate gay people as much as bible thumping evangelicals do.

[spurraider21]

If that's what's required for healthcare reform, so be it. As long as Neal chairs the Ways and Means Committee, we're not going to see any reform that address healthcare costs.
eliminating black voters and getting more republicans in office is going to get you closer to healthcare reform? :lmao

[Will Hunting]

eliminating black voters and getting more republicans in office is going to get you closer to healthcare reform? :lmao
No, I say bring the days of the dixiecrats back. Lose the black vote but win the South and the Midwest. Go back to being the party of labor rather than the party of "diversity".

[spurraider21]

No, I say bring the days of the dixiecrats back. Lose the black vote but win the South.
oh, ok

i mean yeah, no. fuck that. fuck all of that.

[Will Hunting]

Seeing that black people voted overwhelmingly in favor of nominating a Dixiecrat for president, you could probably just go back to being the Dixiecrat party and still keep the black vote.

[Will Hunting]

Morse just conceded. Enjoy another 2 years of hospitals and health insurance companies raping America.

[spurraider21]

Seeing that black people voted overwhelmingly in favor of nominating a Dixiecrat for president, you could probably just go back to being the Dixiecrat party and still keep the black vote.
Cori Bush won her primary in a district that is 50% black. Morse just lost in a district that is 6% black. your blame of black voters is completely absurd in this scenario

[Will Hunting]

Cori Bush won her primary in a district that is 50% black. Morse just lost in a district that is 6% black. your blame of black voters is completely absurd in this scenario
I already said it was Puerto Rican voters in this scenario.

[spurraider21]

I already said it was Puerto Rican voters in this scenario.
its a 72% white district, man, and morse is losing by ~20 points

https://i.gyazo.com/2eca04ccad5eb5b6a5fb6c05a18d806c.png

[Will Hunting]

Kennedy just conceded.

[spurraider21]

Kennedy just conceded.
:tu

[Will Hunting]

Small consolation prize if Jesse Mermell holds out to win Kennedy's seat.

[Splits]

1301278837758623749

Dems up in both Senate races, AZ looks done

[Will Hunting]

1301278837758623749

Dems up in both Senate races, AZ looks done
McSally is out of money while Mark Kelly is a fundraising fiend. The GOP is probably going to abandon that race if they haven't already.

[Reck]

McSally is out of money while Mark Kelly is a fundraising fiend. The GOP is probably going to abandon that race if they haven't already.

:cry send me your money and go hungry while you also suffer through a pandemic without a job.

[Will Hunting]

:cry send me your money and go hungry while you also suffer through a pandemic without a job.
She made news again yesterday with more desperation. She and Mark Kelly had previously agreed to do 2 debates, but she proposed doing 7 debates between now and election day :lmao

Thillis and Gardner both also said their opponents should agree to more debates. An incumbent asking for more debates looks so fucking weak :lol, you have 6 years of track record as a senator, you shouldn't need more debates.

[Reck]

She made news again yesterday with more desperation. She and Mark Kelly had previously agreed to do 2 debates, but she proposed doing 7 debates between now and election day :lmao

Thillis and Gardner both also said their opponents should agree to more debates. An incumbent asking for more debates looks so fucking weak :lol, you have 6 years of track record as a senator, you shouldn't need more debates.

She's trash and unoriginal.

Just basically copy/pasting what dear leader is doing. Trump also wants 4 or 5 debates against Biden. Yeah that'll happen.

[Will Hunting]

She's trash and unoriginal.

Just basically copy/pasting what dear leader is doing. Trump also wants 4 or 5 debates against Biden. Yeah that'll happen.
McSally refused to debate her primary challenger at all, and the Arizona media hasn't been shy about pointing out the hypocrisy if selectively choosing when she does and doesn't want to debate.

Kelly did trip over his own dick in response to a question about the filibuster, but the average voter doesn't even know what a filibuster is :lol

The transformation in AZ is crazy. Not even 10 years ago AZ had one of the 5 most far right state legislatures in the country (it passed a law when I was in school that would have made it so universities couldn't prohibit guns on campus, I would have transferred to another college at the time had the governor not vetoed it :lol), and now there's talk of the Democrats not only winning both national elections but taking control of both state houses in this cycle.

[RandomGuy]

McSally is out of money while Mark Kelly is a fundraising fiend. The GOP is probably going to abandon that race if they haven't already.

I donated to Kelley's campaign.

Vote Blue has let me pick my battles. Send regular funds to my local state Rep, and targeted all sorts of fascist party asshats.

[Will Hunting]

I donated to Kelley's campaign.

Vote Blue has let me pick my battles. Send regular funds to my local state Rep, and targeted all sorts of fascist party asshats.
You should redirect the money to Cunningham’s campaign in N.C. going forward. Kelly doesn’t need it :lol

[RandomGuy]

You should redirect the money to Cunningham’s campaign in N.C. going forward. Kelly doesn’t need it :lol

Duly noted. Throwing money at McConnells challenger as well. McConnell needs to work for his next term, IMO.

[Reck]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/biden-leads-trump-double-digits-senior-voters-over-65-group-no-democrat-has-won-two-decades-1531153%3famp=1

And this is before Trump admitted to not giving a shit if people died or not. Damn

[Will Hunting]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/biden-leads-trump-double-digits-senior-voters-over-65-group-no-democrat-has-won-two-decades-1531153%3famp=1

And this is before Trump admitted to not giving a shit if people died or not. Damn
I actually think the Woodward tapes are going to hurt him in the polls unlike most negative stories about him. We'll see though.

[FrostKing]

I feel the Democrats mostly mean well and often ideas are necessary society challengers. But I think your wide appeal has led to inner conflicts. Sooner than later Republicans will drop the Conservative Hispanic Obama

[Reck]

1304572047788593152 (https://twitter.com/newscentermaine/status/1304572047788593152?s=21)

:lmao This is what Gideon is running against? Yeah she’s got this.

Request denied? What a moron.

[Will Hunting]

1304572047788593152 (https://twitter.com/newscentermaine/status/1304572047788593152?s=21)

:lmao This is what Gideon is running against? Yeah she’s got this.

Request denied? What a moron.
She’s running against Collins, not sure what a 3rd party knuckle dragger does to change that. It’s a ranked choice election so all the mouth breathers in northern Maine who like that guy can still vote for him and rank Collins 2nd.

[Reck]

She’s running against Collins, not sure what a 3rd party knuckle dragger does to change that. It’s a ranked choice election so all the mouth breathers in northern Maine who like that guy can still vote for him and rank Collins 2nd.

Watch this, son. It’s comedy.


https://youtu.be/czNrWFudbfM

Susan Collins doesn’t seem all there. Her shakes are ridiculous.

Lisa Savage impressed the hell out of me. She’s an AOC type.

[Will Hunting]

Watch this, son. It’s comedy.


https://youtu.be/czNrWFudbfM

Susan Collins doesn’t seem all there. Her shakes are ridiculous.

Lisa Savage impressed the hell out of me. She’s an AOC type.
Maybe she wasn’t always this bad, but I don’t understand what Mainers found so appealing about Collins the last 20+ years. As far as I can tell she’s a hardline Republican who occasionally votes Democrat when she knows her vote doesn’t matter or when she absolutely needs to in order to avoid political backlash.

[Reck]

1304556715581595648 (https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/status/1304556715581595648?s=21)

This is significant.

*if true and if it holds*

[Will Hunting]

1304556715581595648 (https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/status/1304556715581595648?s=21)

This is significant.

*if true and if it holds*
Is that 15% number also of independents?

This kinda aligns with my theory that die hard Trumptards only make up 35-39% of voters, the other ~5-10% of voters who support Trump can be peeled off if he acts an ass.

[Reck]

Is that 15% number also of independents?

This kinda aligns with my theory that die hard Trumptards only make up 35-39% of voters, the other ~5-10% of voters who support Trump can be peeled off if he acts an ass.

There’s another nugget in there. Click the tweet. Says 8% of 2016 Trump voters switched to Biden.

Sounds too good to be true. But even if 1% peel off, Trump is beyond fucked.

[Splits]

1305916814380208134

:lmao

[Spurminator]

We all thought the 2020 Senate map was terrible for Democrats, the fact that it's even a possibility of swinging blue is quite a change from 2 years ago. But I'm not getting my hopes up.

[Will Hunting]

We all thought the 2020 Senate map was terrible for Democrats, the fact that it's even a possibility of swinging blue is quite a change from 2 years ago. But I'm not getting my hopes up.
Who thought it was bad? The only negative things I heard about it is that it's not as good as the 2022 map is going to be. It has the two Republican senators in blue states (Gardner & Collins) up for re-election. IMO it was definitely a map that favored Dems.

The 2018 map was the real potential albatross for Democrats. They had 10 seats up for election in states that Trump won and 3 more seats in states Trump lost by <5%. Even though they lost 2 seats in 2018 I still think they did as well as possible outside of Bill Nelson's seat in Florida which was a stupid loss.

[Spurminator]

Who thought it was bad? The only negative things I heard about it is that it's not as good as the 2022 map is going to be. It has the two Republican senators in blue states (Gardner & Collins) up for re-election. IMO it was definitely a map that favored Dems.

The 2018 map was the real potential albatross for Democrats. They had 10 seats up for election in states that Trump won and 3 more seats in states Trump lost by <5%. Even though they lost 2 seats in 2018 I still think they did as well as possible outside of Bill Nelson's seat in Florida which was a stupid loss.


Here are a few examples of the thinking back in 2018. No one thought Montana, Georgia and Iowa would be in the mix.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/a3mzqb/dont-look-now-but-the-2020-senate-map-is-brutal-for-democrats
https://www.vox.com/2018/11/8/18072464/senate-midterm-election-results-democrats-disadvantage
https://theweek.com/articles/803277/2018-senate-map-brutal-democrats-may-even-worse-2020

[Will Hunting]

Here are a few examples of the thinking back in 2018. No one thought Montana, Georgia and Iowa would be in the mix.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/a3mzqb/dont-look-now-but-the-2020-senate-map-is-brutal-for-democrats
https://www.vox.com/2018/11/8/18072464/senate-midterm-election-results-democrats-disadvantage
https://theweek.com/articles/803277/2018-senate-map-brutal-democrats-may-even-worse-2020
Yeah in that sense people didn't think it would be as favorable as it looks now, I misunderstood what you were saying. All I was saying is that it always looked like a map where the Dems would pick up seats.

I hope that Schumer is this focused on running good candidates every 2 years from now on, he made an effort to this year and it shows. Mark Kelly as the candidate in Arizona was brilliant (det sympathy vote), Bullock is the only reason Montana is in play, and Gideon has run a good campaign against Collins. Not being able to convince Stacey Abrams to run in the Georgia special election is the only big missed opportunity I can think of, but that wasn't due to a lack of trying. The 2022 map has several seats that should be pickups for Democrats and very few seats that are in trouble.

[baseline bum]

Who thought it was bad? The only negative things I heard about it is that it's not as good as the 2022 map is going to be. It has the two Republican senators in blue states (Gardner & Collins) up for re-election. IMO it was definitely a map that favored Dems.

The 2018 map was the real potential albatross for Democrats. They had 10 seats up for election in states that Trump won and 3 more seats in states Trump lost by <5%. Even though they lost 2 seats in 2018 I still think they did as well as possible outside of Bill Nelson's seat in Florida which was a stupid loss.

Meh Senate maps are always terrible for Democrats since we have two Dakotas, since Wyoming and Montana get equal representation as California and New York, etc.

[Will Hunting]

Meh Senate maps are always terrible for Democrats since we have two Dakotas, since Wyoming and Montana get equal representation as California and New York, etc.
I'm only speaking in terms of whether they pick up and lose seats. You know I think the 2 senators per state structure is bullshit.

Hopefully if the Dems get the senate they say fuck the filibuster and give statehood to DC. I say make each DC quadrant a state so it gets 8 senators, that's still not as egregious as when the Republicans gave statehood to Nevada when it had <10,000 residents in order to pad its senate vote.

On the bright side, unless something changes from where polls are, this will be the first election in my lifetime with over 20 states that are lean blue and have 2 Dem senators who don't need to constantly worry about re-election. They're still relying on fuckheads like Joe Manchin and Tester for their majority but not as much as they had to 12 years ago.

[RandomGuy]

Meh Senate maps are always terrible for Democrats since we have two Dakotas, since Wyoming and Montana get equal representation as California and New York, etc.

Well, get DC and/or Peurto Rico in as states...

Be interesting to see what kind of racist bullshit the Grifting Old Party trots out to oppose those moves.

Add in four reliably Democratic Senators, and/or electors.

[Spurminator]

I'm only speaking in terms of whether they pick up and lose seats. You know I think the 2 senators per state structure is bullshit.

Hopefully if the Dems get the senate they say fuck the filibuster and give statehood to DC. I say make each DC quadrant a state so it gets 8 senators, that's still not as egregious as when the Republicans gave statehood to Nevada when it had <10,000 residents in order to pad its senate vote.

On the bright side, unless something changes from where polls are, this will be the first election in my lifetime with over 20 states that are lean blue and have 2 Dem senators who don't need to constantly worry about re-election. They're still relying on fuckheads like Joe Manchin and Tester for their majority but not as much as they had to 12 years ago.

+ Puerto Rico. They should probably be running on that message in Florida too.

[Will Hunting]

Well, get DC and/or Peurto Rico in as states...

Be interesting to see what kind of racist bullshit the Grifting Old Party trots out to oppose those moves.

Add in four reliably Democratic Senators, and/or electors.

Why just make each of them a state? If the Republicans are allowed to draw an arbitrary border to make Dakota two states (which is what they did), make Washington DC 4 states and make Puerto Rico 5 states. Puerto Rico has a population over 3 million and Wyoming has a population of <600,000, breaking Puerto Rico into 5 states still gives each state Puerto Rico state more people than Wyoming has.

If the Constitution allows you to abuse the system and Republicans refuse to consider amending it to remove the obvious unfairness, take the abuse and unfairness to a new level so their hand is forced.

[RandomGuy]

Meh Senate maps are always terrible for Democrats since we have two Dakotas, since Wyoming and Montana get equal representation as California and New York, etc.


Why just make each of them a state? If the Republicans are allowed to draw an arbitrary border to make Dakota two states (which is what they did), make Washington DC 4 states and make Puerto Rico 5 states. Puerto Rico has a population over 3 million and Wyoming has a population of <600,000, breaking Puerto Rico into 5 states still gives each state Puerto Rico state more people than Wyoming has.

If the Constitution allows you to abuse the system and Republicans refuse to consider amending it to remove the obvious unfairness, take the abuse and unfairness to a new level so their hand is forced.


or... hell, have one Democratic area cede from a blue state. You could then gerrymander the shit out of any Republican areas to leave them as helpless as they do to democrats in red states now.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4b/85/44/4b8544774e69c9a7817b99e894ea38a2.jpg

[Will Hunting]

or... hell, have one Democratic area cede from a blue state. You could then gerrymander the shit out of any Republican areas to leave them as helpless as they do to democrats in red states now.
I've suggested this before, but the problem (on top of all the other things that make it impossible, like the Dems being too scared to ever play as dirty as McConnell does) is that I think getting the vote among citizens to secede from a state requires a lot of work, even if Congress and the President are both willing to sign off on it. I don't think it's as simple as congress, the president, Gavin Newsome and the California legislature getting in a room and deciding how to slice California into multiple states that will each elect Democratic senators.

It's easy for us to say just fin 5 different heavily Democratic pockets in California and make each one a state, the actual people who live in those areas probably won't want to go along with seceding from California.

[RandomGuy]

I've suggested this before, but the problem is that I think get the vote among citizens to secede from a state requires a lot of work, even if Congress and the President are both willing to sign off on it. I don't think it's as simple as congress, the president, Gavin Newsome and the California legislature getting in a room and deciding how to slice California into multiple states that will each elect Democratic senators.

It's easy for us to say just fin 5 different heavily Democratic pockets in California and make each one a state, the actual people who live in those areas probably won't want to go along with seceding from California.

I know. Just wishcasting. :^/

We should push for statehood for PR though. Hard. Maybe then they will get the hurricaine proofing and road funds they need.

[Will Hunting]

I know. Just wishcasting. :^/

We should push for statehood for PR though. Hard. Maybe then they will get the hurricaine proofing and road funds they need.
Ideally the way you would do it is you tee it up along with a constitutional amendment that gets rid of the electoral college and gives states senators based on population size, then you take it to McConnell and say "Either figure out a way get Republicans to support this constitutional amendment or we're going to admit 10 new states and make sure Republicans never have a senate majority ever again."

I wouldn't really want carving California into 10 states to be the long term solution, would rather just modernize the constitution.

[Ef-man]

Guam, US Virgin Island, American Samoa, and Northern Mariana Islands are also candidates for statehood.

[Reck]

Guam, US Virgin Island, American Samoa, and Northern Mariana Islands are also candidates for statehood.

And then the watering down begins. When you add this many caveat, it's a lot easier to laugh off this plan.

And honestly, I cant even justify statehoods for territories that have just over 100k people max.

I think you can combine all those territories and they still would fall short of the Wyoming population.

[Ef-man]

John Oliver had a great episode on representation of US Territories.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CesHr99ezWE

[Will Hunting]

And then the watering down begins. When you add this many caveat, it's a lot easier to laugh off this plan.

And honestly, I cant even justify statehoods for territories that have just over 100k people max.

I think you can combine all those territories and they still would fall short of the Wyoming population.
Nevada had like 6,500 people when it got statehood. Pretty sure the Dakotas had less than 100k people as well. There’s no population requirement for a territory to be granted statehood.

Im not sure why the idea of those territories gets laughed off. It’s not any more absurd than Wyoming having as many senators as California.

[Will Hunting]

Btw it was absolutely justified when the Republicans added Nevada as a state. The Democrats at the time were using disproportionate small state power as a means of keeping slavery legal, so the Republicans started dealing from the bottom of the deck to make sure Lincoln got re-elected. Now it’s a role reversal and Republicans have gotten out of control in terms of whoring small states to stack the courts with crazy judges a majority of Americans don’t want and to block legislation that Americans actually want. Dirty tricks were necessary to abolish slavery then and they’re necessary now to stop America from becoming a far right oligarchy.

[Reck]

Nevada had like 6,500 people when it got statehood. Pretty sure the Dakotas had less than 100k people as well. There’s no population requirement for a territory to be granted statehood.

Im not sure why the idea of those territories gets laughed off. It’s not any more absurd than Wyoming having as many senators as California.

It does when you try to wholesale them.

Puerto Rico and Washington DC seems the most likely, immediate and most sensible to me at the moment.

[Will Hunting]

It does when you try to wholesale them.

Puerto Rico and Washington DC seems the most likely, immediate and most sensible to me at the moment.
At the least there should be North DC and South DC. If there can be two Dakotas there can be two DCs.

[Spurminator]

Another idea is to hold the other territories as leverage. Statehood for DC and PR regardless.

You oppose Medicare for All? We add Guam.

Oppose a cap gains tax increase? Welcome to statehood, Virgin Islands!

[RandomGuy]

they’re necessary now to stop America from becoming a far right oligarchy.

almost too late.

[Will Hunting]

almost too late.
Probably is too late. If they couldn't get anything done in 2009 I'm not confident they'll be any less inept in 2021.

[Reck]

Will Hunting get your ass in here.
1306296044444102657

:lol We have another Arizona situation here.

[Reck]

1306295262969765890

:lol

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) get your ass in here.
1306296044444102657

:lol We have another Arizona situation here.
Might be even more lopsided since Maine is bluer.

Same Quinnipiac poll has Biden only down 6 points in SC with Graham and Harrison tied :tu

Also has Biden winning Maine's 2nd district by 9 points which is more important than people think.

[Will Hunting]

Pretty much what I said several weeks ago. McGrath fucked herself in the primary and has no shot against Cocaine Mitch, but the South Carolina race isn't outside the realm of possibilities.

[Reck]

Might be even more lopsided since Maine is bluer.

Same Quinnipiac poll has Biden only down 6 points in SC with Graham and Harrison tied :tu

Also has Biden winning Maine's 2nd district by 9 points which is more important than people think.

Meanwhile at Rasmussen headquaters.

1306259550543151107

1306270066900692993

:lmao

[Will Hunting]

Jesus, outside of the actual poll vs. Graham, Harrison's overall numbers are amazing for a Dem senate candidate in South Carolina.

+13 favorable rating (-5 for Graham)
+24 honesty rating (-9 for Graham)
+30 rating on whether he "cares for average people" (-3 for Graham)

Surprised he's not winning the race with that likability, probably a case of votingrepublican.jpeg

[spurraider21]

Jesus, outside of the actual poll vs. Graham, Harrison's overall numbers are amazing for a Dem senate candidate in South Carolina.

+13 favorable rating (-5 for Graham)
+24 honesty rating (-9 for Graham)
+30 rating on whether he "cares for average people" (-3 for Graham)

Surprised he's not winning the race with that likability, probably a case of votingrepublican.jpeg
im sure he's a good guy, but he just wants to bring us socialism and throw us into gulags

[RandomGuy]

1306295262969765890

:lol

Graham: "why won't my opponent release his tax returns, what is he hiding"

Harrison: (releases returns)
Harrison: "Done, now do Trump"

:lmao

[Will Hunting]

im sure he's a good guy, but he just wants to bring us socialism and throw us into gulags
More likely:

im sure he's a good guy, but he hasn't shown me that he overturning Roe v. Wade is his #1 priority above all else, so I can't even consider him even though his opponent is undeniably a piece of shit

[Reck]

McGrath down 12 points to the turtle.

[Will Hunting]

Graham: "why won't my opponent release his tax returns, what is he hiding"

Harrison: (releases returns)
Harrison: "Done, now do Trump"

:lmao
:lol I thought you were joking, didn't realize this actually happened

1305967288311582721

Graham wouldn't have tried that stunt if he thought this race was in the bag. Repressed Lindsey is still the favorite but Harrison definitely has more than a puncher's chance.

[Will Hunting]

McGrath down 12 points to the turtle.
Demographics just haven't shifted in Kentucky the way they are in South Carolina, and McGrath is a bad candidate. She couldn't win the 2nd bluest district in Kentucky in a waive midterm year, but somehow Schumer pegged her as the one who was going to win a statewide race?

Kentucky needs a well liked charismatic black candidate (i.e., Jaime Harrison) running as a Dem to make their senate race competitive.

[Spurminator]

:lol I thought you were joking, didn't realize this actually happened

1305967288311582721

Graham wouldn't have tried that stunt if he thought this race was in the bag. Repressed Lindsey is still the favorite but Harrison definitely has more than a puncher's chance.

Damn, almost like he baited Graham into that.

[Spurminator]

Demographics just haven't shifted in Kentucky the way they are in South Carolina, and McGrath is a bad candidate. She couldn't win the 2nd bluest district in Kentucky in a waive midterm year, but somehow Schumer pegged her as the one who was going to win a statewide race?

Kentucky needs a well liked charismatic black candidate (i.e., Jaime Harrison) running as a Dem to make their senate race competitive.

If not for voter suppression in Louisville they'd probably have one now.

[FrostKing]

Right, a state that is 87% White needs a black representative.

[Will Hunting]

If not for voter suppression in Louisville they'd probably have one now.
If we're being honest that wasn't just voter suppression, it was the Democrat Party fighting tooth and nail to stop a well-liked progressive from winning a primary against one of their milquetoast corporatists-in-training. The amount of money the Democratic Party dumped into primary contests this year was a joke. The money that was dumped into Richie Neal's campaign alone was several million dollars that could be getting used in key senate races right now. Instead it was used to make sure Blackstone still had control over the Ways and Means Committee.

Booker would definitely be a better candidate than McGrath (who's basically just a shittier version of Susan Collins only in the end she wouldn't be loyal to her party the way Collins is) but might have been too progressive for Kentucky.

[Will Hunting]

Right, a state that is 87% White needs a black representative.
Not what I said; only way the Dems win a senate seat in Kentucky is with record black turnout, 2017 Alabama election style. Only way that happens is with a well-liked black candidate.

[RandomGuy]

Right, a state that is 87% White needs a black representative.

What's that? You attacking my radio station? I haf ze panzers for zat...

[FrostKing]

What's that? You attacking my radio station? I haf ze panzers for zat...
Ya we fought them, you played baseball. :tu

[RandomGuy]

Ya we fought them, :tu

For a few weeks, I guess.

Then you sold out your countrymen to death camps to actual fascists.

When the survivors got out and attempted to go back... their houses were taken over and they were told "there is nothing here for you".

You probably didn't know that last part, I would guess. The ones your countrymen wouldn't let back into their own homes, came here.

[RandomGuy]

Ya we fought them, you played baseball. :tu

Seriously though, I am just trying for a mild ribbing.

All countries have some shit that went on in the past, including the US.

Poland got unlucky being between two corrupt authoritarian behemoths. Never really stood much of a chance, despite the obvious bravery of the Polish army, which, from the first hand accounts I have read on both sides acquitted itself rather well.

[Bogie]

Not what I said; only way the Dems win a senate seat in Kentucky is with record black turnout, 2017 Alabama election style. Only way that happens is with a well-liked black candidate.

so you’re conceding that Bernie wouldn’t have had a chance in the general election?

Plus, you have spent a lot of bandwidth hating on that African American voting block for supporting who they chose to.

so is the AA voting bloc important, or a hindrance?

[Will Hunting]

so you’re conceding that Bernie wouldn’t have had a chance in the general election?

Plus, you have spent a lot of bandwidth hating on that African American voting block for supporting who they chose to.

so is the AA voting bloc important, or a hindrance?
In Kentucky? No, Bernie wouldnt have had a chance.

The rest of your post is incoherent so I’m not responding to it.

[Bogie]

In Kentucky? No, Bernie wouldnt have had a chance.

The rest of your post is incoherent so I’m not responding to it.

Of course you’re not. You have ranted at length about the fact that it was the AA vote that won Joe the nomination. So is that bloc beneficial or a hindrance?

i mean I get why you may not want to answer the question, I really do.

[Will Hunting]

Of course you’re not. You have ranted at length about the fact that it was the AA vote that won Joe the nomination. So is that bloc beneficial or a hindrance?

i mean I get why you may not want to answer the question, I really do.
Not sure what any of this has to do with a senate race in Kentucky.

I'm not going to indulge you because you feel like being a delicate snowflake.

[Bogie]

Not sure what any of this has to do with a senate race in Kentucky.

I'm not going to indulge you because you feel like being a delicate snowflake.

:lmao

it’s an ugly realization when you discover the lack of tolerance from a group that self identifies as “progressive”

You’re getting there

[boutons_deux]

Shithole TX Repug SCOTX voting RED

Texas Supreme Court says 3 Green Party candidates must be added back to November ballot

Local elections administrators will have to print new ballots to meet a weekend deadline to send mail ballots to overseas and military voters.

The Texas Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered that three Green Party candidates be added back onto the November ballots after a lower court ordered them removed.

The order is a victory for the Green Party, which focuses on climate change and social justice issues, and

a loss for the Democratic Party, which sometimes loses more liberal voters to the latter and had sued to keep candidates off the ballots.

It did not outline its rationale :lol Keep Shithole TX RED! :lol but said an opinion would follow.

Democrats decried the decision as partisan by the all-Republican Supreme Court.

many third-party candidates did not pay filing fees for the November election.

Last month, a state appeals court sided with the Democrats who

wanted to remove the Green Party candidates from the ballot for not paying the filing fees,

but the Supreme Court overruled that decision.

“The Green Party didn’t want to follow the law, and now the

state Attorney General and Republican Texas Supreme Court have helped them flaunt it,”

mailed ballots have to be recalled or replaced

while military and overseas voters will be put at further risk of not having their ballots delivered on time.

All of this because the Republican Party believes this will give them a better chance to hold on to power.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/09/15/texas-supreme-court-says-3-green-party-candidates-must-be-added-back-to-november-ballot

In shithole TX, no Law is above the Repugs

[Will Hunting]

Shithole TX Repug SCOTX voting RED

Texas Supreme Court says 3 Green Party candidates must be added back to November ballot

Local elections administrators will have to print new ballots to meet a weekend deadline to send mail ballots to overseas and military voters.

The Texas Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered that three Green Party candidates be added back onto the November ballots after a lower court ordered them removed.

The order is a victory for the Green Party, which focuses on climate change and social justice issues, and

a loss for the Democratic Party, which sometimes loses more liberal voters to the latter and had sued to keep candidates off the ballots.

It did not outline its rationale :lol Keep Shithole TX RED! :lol but said an opinion would follow.

Democrats decried the decision as partisan by the all-Republican Supreme Court.

many third-party candidates did not pay filing fees for the November election.

Last month, a state appeals court sided with the Democrats who

wanted to remove the Green Party candidates from the ballot for not paying the filing fees,

but the Supreme Court overruled that decision.

“The Green Party didn’t want to follow the law, and now the

state Attorney General and Republican Texas Supreme Court have helped them flaunt it,”

mailed ballots have to be recalled or replaced

while military and overseas voters will be put at further risk of not having their ballots delivered on time.

All of this because the Republican Party believes this will give them a better chance to hold on to power.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/09/15/texas-supreme-court-says-3-green-party-candidates-must-be-added-back-to-november-ballot

In shithole TX, no Law is above the Repugs



As I've said before, there's too much voter suppression/Republican control at every level in Texas for it to go blue this time around. It basically took 10 years for Virginia to go from purple to solid blue (2006 when the Dems won a close senate race to 2017 when they took the state legislature in spite of gerrymandering and <50% turnout). In Texas that process probably takes even longer.

[RandomGuy]

:lmao

it’s an ugly realization when you discover the lack of tolerance from a group that self identifies as “progressive”

You’re getting there

Again, not really a coherent thought. Point?

[Bogie]

Again, not really a coherent thought. Point?

Pretty simple. There is a pretty wide swath of racism and sexism that spans across broad lines of the folks that assign themselves a label of progressive

[Reck]

1306961499085209602 (https://twitter.com/marshallcohen/status/1306961499085209602?s=21)

Guess the Trump vs Biden voters from this picture. :lol

[RandomGuy]

Pretty simple. There is a pretty wide swath of racism and sexism that spans across broad lines of the folks that assign themselves a label of progressive

How would you go about supporting that statement? What evidence do you have of this claim?

[RandomGuy]

Bidens edge kind of ebbs and flows.

Currently at 77% chance of winning according to the gaming out of results at 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Dems slightly favored to pick up the Senate.

270 gives it straight up to biden, even if all the battleground states go to Trump.

https://www.270towin.com/

[spurraider21]

didn't get DMC (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=20665)'s check on time

https://i.gyazo.com/751b7a077828e9f821f713ceac186a96.jpg

[Reck]

1307454617706348546 (https://twitter.com/415holgate/status/1307454617706348546?s=21)

definitely an outlier but holy shit.

[boutons_deux]

Duly noted. Throwing money at McConnells challenger as well. McConnell needs to work for his next term, IMO.

90% of McConnell's money comes from out of state much of it from Wall Street

[Will Hunting]

1307454617706348546 (https://twitter.com/415holgate/status/1307454617706348546?s=21)

definitely an outlier but holy shit.
Only among registered independents, Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats so Kelly needs to be crushing her with independents in order to win.

Also, poll released yesterday has Greenfield up by 3 on Ernst, and poll released today has Bullock 1 point behind Daines (but it also has the Green Party candidate who’s disqualified from the ballot getting 4% of the vote, theoretically most of those votes go to Bullock).

Bullock and Greenfield have both said they’re open to nuking the filibuster, so winning at least one of those races would be huge. RandomGuy would be spending his money a lot more wisely giving to them instead of bulldyke McGrath.

[Will Hunting]

90% of McConnell's money comes from out of state much of it from Wall Street
:lol and you think the $50+ million McGrath has raised didn’t overwhelmingly come from outside of Kentucky? She’s getting plenty of Wall Street money to.

They actually had a chance to challenge McConnell the same way they’re challenging Graham and they blew it with a shitty candidate no one likes.

[RandomGuy]

Only among registered independents, Arizona has more registered Republicans than Democrats so Kelly needs to be crushing her with independents in order to win.

Also, poll released yesterday has Greenfield up by 3 on Ernst, and poll released today has Bullock 1 point behind Daines (but it also has the Green Party candidate who’s disqualified from the ballot getting 4% of the vote, theoretically most of those votes go to Bullock).

Bullock and Greenfield have both said they’re open to nuking the filibuster, so winning at least one of those races would be huge. RandomGuy would be spending his money a lot more wisely giving to them instead of bulldyke McGrath.

Pretty much. Already put a bit into Greenfields coffers.

[Will Hunting]

Pretty much. Already put a bit into Greenfields coffers.
The consultant I know who's been working on senate campaigns this year basically breaks the races into these groups:

- Hickenlooper, McSally and Gideon are rolling in money and are in good shape. Hickenlooper was running a bad campaign but Gardner pledging allegiance to Trump's SCOTUS pick basically concedes that race.
- Cunningham should be in good shape but that's still the most important race to contribute to since it probably decides the senate and they need a ground game to make sure black voters show up.
- Greenfield and Bullock are the races that are basically coin-flips right now but they're important since the Dems don't want to be relying on Joe Manchin to end the filibuster.
- Ossoff (GA), Bollier (KS) and Al Gross (AK) are the dark horse candidates who have a shot if it turns into a big waive year.

South Carolina is probably going to be out of play with evangelicals supporting Graham on a pro-life SCOTUS pick. Texas could even be winnable but it's a mediocre candidate and not worth the money.

[spurraider21]

:lol and you think the $50+ million McGrath has raised didn’t overwhelmingly come from outside of Kentucky? She’s getting plenty of Wall Street money to.

They actually had a chance to challenge McConnell the same way they’re challenging Graham and they blew it with a shitty candidate no one likes.
although a part of me would love to see McConnell in the Senate as part of the minority if the dems are willing to nuke the filibuster

[baseline bum]

The consultant I know who's been working on senate campaigns this year basically breaks the races into these groups:

- Hickenlooper, McSally and Gideon are rolling in money and are in good shape. Hickenlooper was running a bad campaign but Gardner pledging allegiance to Trump's SCOTUS pick basically concedes that race.
- Cunningham should be in good shape but that's still the most important race to contribute to since it probably decides the senate and they need a ground game to make sure black voters show up.
- Greenfield and Bullock are the races that are basically coin-flips right now but they're important since the Dems don't want to be relying on Joe Manchin to end the filibuster.
- Ossoff (GA), Bollier (KS) and Al Gross (AK) are the dark horse candidates who have a shot if it turns into a big waive year.

South Carolina is probably going to be out of play with evangelicals supporting Graham on a pro-life SCOTUS pick. Texas could even be winnable but it's a mediocre candidate and not worth the money.

I wouldn't even call Texas' candidate mediocre. I had to go look up who it was.

[ChumpDumper]

Fucking empty suit Beto would've beaten Cornyn this year.

[Will Hunting]

although a part of me would love to see McConnell in the Senate as part of the minority if the dems are willing to nuke the filibuster
Same but I think without McConnell some of the senators who might be more reasonable aren't handcuffed anymore. Someone like Gardner doesn't come out and tank his re-election chances promising to confirm Trump's pick unless someone's yanking him around. The GOP would definitely find another power broker in the senate to take McConnell's place, but odds are said power broker wouldn't be nearly as effective.

I guess the other way to look at it is that with McConnell they know that they need to either nuke the filibuster or get nothing done. With a weaker minority leader they'd delude themselves into thinking they can "reach across the aisle".

Regarding McGrath though - the Breonna Taylor cops are going to be let off the hook today. Instead of having Charles Booker to lead the community and rally the record turnout they would need from black Louisville voters to unseat McConnell, it'll be McGrath making some tone deaf statement that sends condolences to Taylor's family while saying and emphasizing "most cops are good."

[baseline bum]

Fucking empty suit Beto would've beaten Cornyn this year.

:cry But MJ Hegar rides a motorcycle :cry

[Will Hunting]

I wouldn't even call Texas' candidate mediocre. I had to go look up who it was.
Yeah but I'm fine with them conceding Cornyn's race this year. It's expensive as hell to campaign there, same reason I think dumping money into Florida is stupid when it doesn't even have a senate race. Dumping $50 million into Kentucky was also stupid when they had a shitty candidate.

It's not a complicated formula really. The charismatic and likable Democratic candidates who relate to the state's voters are doing well in purple/light red states, while the ones who are out of touch bots aren't doing well. It's not even about progressive vs. moderate in these senate races as much as its about name recognition and likability. With Mark Kelly, all you have to tell voters is "he's Gabby Gifford's husband" and he had an edge in a state Trump won.

[RandomGuy]

:cry But MJ Hegar rides a motorcycle :cry

Saw her first ad the other day.

She is a veteran. Big plus in my book. :D

[RandomGuy]

The consultant I know who's been working on senate campaigns this year basically breaks the races into these groups:

- Hickenlooper, McSally and Gideon are rolling in money and are in good shape. Hickenlooper was running a bad campaign but Gardner pledging allegiance to Trump's SCOTUS pick basically concedes that race.
- Cunningham should be in good shape but that's still the most important race to contribute to since it probably decides the senate and they need a ground game to make sure black voters show up.
- Greenfield and Bullock are the races that are basically coin-flips right now but they're important since the Dems don't want to be relying on Joe Manchin to end the filibuster.
- Ossoff (GA), Bollier (KS) and Al Gross (AK) are the dark horse candidates who have a shot if it turns into a big waive year.

South Carolina is probably going to be out of play with evangelicals supporting Graham on a pro-life SCOTUS pick. Texas could even be winnable but it's a mediocre candidate and not worth the money.

Noted. Will take this advice to the progressive/Democratic groups I am plugged into. Hell, might even copy/paste it part and parcel.

[baseline bum]

Saw her first ad the other day.

She is a veteran. Big plus in my book. :D

So she's a loser then basically? :lol

[Reck]

Will Hunting There's been a lot of Iowa talk as of late so here's this beauty.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/

Des Moines Register poll is considered a top of the line pollster.

[Reck]

Locking down Arizona for good now. :lol

1308541021706432512

[Will Hunting]

Locking down Arizona for good now. :lol

1308541021706432512
Bang!

[baseline bum]

Bang!

If Thread was alive he'd definitely bang that

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) There's been a lot of Iowa talk as of late so here's this beauty.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/

Des Moines Register poll is considered a top of the line pollster.
The Iowa senate race is the bellwether imo, it's the one I'm focused on contributing to. If they win Iowa it means they won CO/AZ/MN/NC and they have the senate without a tiebreaker. Ernst is a crazy bitch who's always been vulnerable, they just needed a good candidate to run against her.

[RandomGuy]

The Iowa senate race is the bellwether imo, it's the one I'm focused on contributing to. If they win Iowa it means they won CO/AZ/MN/NC and they have the senate without a tiebreaker. Ernst is a crazy bitch who's always been vulnerable, they just needed a good candidate to run against her.

Gave in to Graham's opponent, Harrison. Was offered a 600% match. Worth every penny to spite Graham.

[RandomGuy]

Yeah but I'm fine with them conceding Cornyn's race this year. It's expensive as hell to campaign there, same reason I think dumping money into Florida is stupid when it doesn't even have a senate race. Dumping $50 million into Kentucky was also stupid when they had a shitty candidate.

It's not a complicated formula really. The charismatic and likable Democratic candidates who relate to the state's voters are doing well in purple/light red states, while the ones who are out of touch bots aren't doing well. It's not even about progressive vs. moderate in these senate races as much as its about name recognition and likability. With Mark Kelly, all you have to tell voters is "he's Gabby Gifford's husband" and he had an edge in a state Trump won.

Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District
https://ballotpedia.org/Joyce_Elliott

Not a major race, but winnable. Good candidate, IMO. Odd what Act.blue shoves my way, but i am all about having an open wallet this season. Fuck it.

Zinda, his face black, his eyes red.

[Reck]

1309156622187585538

:lol Nearly in tears

[RandomGuy]

1309156622187585538

:lol Nearly in tears

Well shit. Glad I am part of that.

He did have a kernel of truth. "This money is because they hate my guts".

Yes, yes I do.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden still favored at 77% chance.

[Will Hunting]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden still favored at 77% chance.
Silver has said that if polls stay the same it’ll be 90/10 by Election Day, so we should see Biden’s probability gradually creep up over the next 6 weeks.

[Reck]

Silver has said that if polls stay the same it’ll be 90/10 by Election Day, so we should see Biden’s probability gradually creep up over the next 6 weeks.

State polling has been extremely consistent as well.

Outside of PA and Florida getting tighter.

[Will Hunting]

It’s pretty clear from the recent polls that Biden is intentionally prioritizing white Midwest voters and educated white women over fickle hispanic voters who might not even show up. New Fox News poll has Biden up 5 points in Ohio and 7 in Pennsylvania.

[Will Hunting]

State polling has been extremely consistent as well.

Outside of PA and Florida getting tighter.
PA is getting tighter but Biden’s been at or above 50% in most polls. These state polls being wrong would be a substantionay bigger error than 2016 was. We also have more of the A rated pollsters conducting statewide polls this year.

[Reck]

It’s pretty clear from the recent polls that Biden is intentionally prioritizing white Midwest voters and educated white women over fickle hispanic voters who might not even show up. New Fox News poll has Biden up 5 points in Ohio and 7 in Pennsylvania.

That should make you very happy, no?

You've been advocating for this strategy. As am I honestly.

Prioritizing actual likely voters is the way to go. It's twofold as well as this same group of voters tilted the election to Trump and he is now losing them in droves.

[Will Hunting]

That should make you very happy, no?

You've been advocating for this strategy. As am I honestly.

Prioritizing actual likely voters is the way to go. It's twofold as well as this same group of voters tilted the election to Trump and he is now losing them in droves.
Yeah I should have clarified that I view it as a good thing. He’s made the decision to also not waste money in Texas as tempting as it might be. Georgia is a much cheaper state he can use to distract Trump.

A lot of the grassroots progressive groups have actually made some headway in convincing BernieBros to vote for Biden. It’s more or less what they’re focused on between now and Election Day.

[spurraider21]

:lol 1309567055096696835

[SnakeBoy]

Noted. Will take this advice to the progressive/Democratic groups I am plugged into. Hell, might even copy/paste it part and parcel.

:lol

[boutons_deux]

TX Repug shitbags get their shit pushed in

Federal judge blocks Texas’ elimination of straight-ticket voting

Democrats sued the state in March

to overturn the Texas Legislature’s removal of straight-ticket voting.

https://www.salon.com/2020/09/26/federal-judge-blocks-texas-elimination-of-straight-ticket-voting_partner/

[Reck]

https://www.newsweek.com/over-860000-americans-have-already-voted-compared-fewer-10000-this-point-2016-1534452

Hopefully Deathsantis doesn't throw away those ballots like his dear leader wants him to do.

Either way, this paints a horrific picture for Republicans.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.newsweek.com/over-860000-americans-have-already-voted-compared-fewer-10000-this-point-2016-1534452

Hopefully Deathsantis doesn't throw away those ballots like his dear leader wants him to do.

Either way, this paints a horrific picture for Republicans.
Trump and DeathSantis could have very well fucked themselves in Florida. Trump has made it so his base isn't voting until election day by scaring them out of voting by mail, and DeathSantis lifting all restrictions has made it so Florida is going to be a COVID cesspool by November.

That's not a good scenario for them on - the majority of Biden supporters have already voted by mail or voted early and they're relying on the base to come out in huge numbers on election day in the midst of a huge COVID outbreak.

[spurraider21]

1309306743722323968