2020 blue wave

[Will Hunting]

Doug Jones doesn't have a shot in hell, but he's not going down with a fight :lol

1310320839833858053

[Reck]

Doug Jones doesn't have a shot in hell, but he's not going down with a fight :lol

1310320839833858053

Another grifter, imagine that.

And he’ll get the job he’s been looking for for years. A nice payout for doing exactly nothing.

[Will Hunting]

Another grifter, imagine that.

And he’ll get the job he’s been looking for for years. A nice payout for doing exactly nothing.
Doug Jones should be on his knees begging for Saban's endorsement. Saban is allegedly a moderate Democrat, he and Manchin are good friends.

If Saban were to say "I'm done at Alabama if ya'll elect Tuberville over Jones" Jones might actually have a shot :lol

[Will Hunting]

If there's an iota of accuracy to this poll, Trump is in serious trouble in sun belt states.

1310594922492428290

[rmt]

If there's an iota of accuracy to this poll, Trump is in serious trouble in sun belt states.

1310594922492428290

I don't believe the Florida one - the enthusiasm for Trump here in Miami Dade is through the roof if yard signs and bumper stickers are anything to go by. If Trump does well in Dade County, the rest of the state imo will offset Broward, West Palm, Orlando, Tampa and other cities.

The views in that speech by the Cuban business man at RNC (if anyone happen to catch it) are shared by many Cubans and Venezuelans - they HATE any mention of socialism and where they feel it's led in their (former) countries.

[Reck]

If there's an iota of accuracy to this poll, Trump is in serious trouble in sun belt states.

More to add:

1310578448981807104

Just dont let yard signs vote, apparently. :lol

[Reck]

I don't believe the Florida one - the enthusiasm for Trump here in Miami Dade is through the roof if yard signs and bumper stickers are anything to go by. If Trump does well in Dade County, the rest of the state imo will offset Broward, West Palm, Orlando, Tampa and other cities.

The views in that speech by the Cuban business man at RNC (if anyone happen to catch it) are shared by many Cubans and Venezuelans - they HATE any mention of socialism and where they feel it's led in their (former) countries.

Why do you doubt it? That graphic includes Biden actually losing some latino support in Florida.

He's currently running behind Hillary's numbers even. Thankfully that's getting offset by the support from older folks Biden is enjoying.

[Spurminator]

I don't believe the Florida one - the enthusiasm for Trump here in Miami Dade is through the roof if yard signs and bumper stickers are anything to go by. If Trump does well in Dade County, the rest of the state imo will offset Broward, West Palm, Orlando, Tampa and other cities.

The views in that speech by the Cuban business man at RNC (if anyone happen to catch it) are shared by many Cubans and Venezuelans - they HATE any mention of socialism and where they feel it's led in their (former) countries.

Anecdotes can be misleading. I was at South Padre a couple of months ago and there were tons of Trump flags, shirts, etc. But they're still going to vote 66% Democrat like they always have.

The MAGA minority is just loud.

[DMX7]

Doug Jones doesn't have a shot in hell, but he's not going down with a fight :lol

1310320839833858053

Great ad. HAHA. Just another reminder of how screwed up the election system is that he is going to Tubbs is going to get that seat.

[Will Hunting]

He's currently running behind Hillary's numbers even. Thankfully that's getting offset by the support from older folks Biden is enjoying.
old people supporting Biden is only going to expand in 2-3 weeks once the DeathSantis COVID surge we're about to see happens :lol

[baseline bum]

old people supporting Biden is only going to expand in 2-3 weeks once the DeathSantis COVID surge we're about to see happens :lol

It'll take longer. The Balous Miller Recovery started in early May but it wasn't until late June that the infection numbers blew up to hell in San Antonio, for example. Exponential growth always looks slow at first. That's why ducks was comparing our national COVID death toll to a weekend in Chicago in March and why Karrin was spiking the football in mid-May. This is just DeathSantis wanting to pretend everything is great in Florida to try to make Trump not look like a fuckup for the election.

[Will Hunting]

It'll take longer. The Balous Miller Recovery started in early May but it wasn't until late June that the infection numbers blew up to hell in San Antonio, for example. Exponential growth always looks slow at first. That's why ducks was comparing our national COVID death toll to a weekend in Chicago in March and why Karrin was spiking the football in mid-May. This is just DeathSantis wanting to pretend everything is great in Florida to try to make Trump not look like a fuckup for the election.
I think the difference is infection rates are a lot higher now in Florida than they were in early May. They had over 100 deaths for 4 days straight last week (:lol DeathSantis) until Sunday, which is usually just a reporting lul. IIRC there also wasn't a full blown reopening in May like there's going to be now in Florida.

[baseline bum]

I think the difference is infection rates are a lot higher now in Florida than they were in early May. They had over 100 deaths for 4 days straight last week (:lol DeathSantis) until Sunday, which is usually just a reporting lul. IIRC there also wasn't a full blown reopening in May like there's going to be now in Florida.

Good point. Maybe should have waited until a week before early voting starts.

[GB20]

I don't believe the Florida one - the enthusiasm for Trump here in Miami Dade is through the roof if yard signs and bumper stickers are anything to go by. If Trump does well in Dade County, the rest of the state imo will offset Broward, West Palm, Orlando, Tampa and other cities.

The views in that speech by the Cuban business man at RNC (if anyone happen to catch it) are shared by many Cubans and Venezuelans - they HATE any mention of socialism and where they feel it's led in their (former) countries.
Pretty soon the Venezuelan people will realize that Trump is pretty much another Hugo Chavez.

[Reck]

Will Hunting
1310606910824091651

Trump canceling ads in Ohio and Iowa because he's too poor. :lmao

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032)
1310606910824091651

Trump canceling ads in Ohio and Iowa because he's too poor. :lmao
He has over $300 million cash on hand as of last month, I don't understand where all of that money is going when he's cancelling all of these ads.

Don't really care about Ohio since Biden easily wins in any scenario where that state is a close race, but every ad he cancels in Iowa helps Theresa Greenfield against Qoni Ernst :tu

[RandomGuy]

I don't believe the Florida one - the enthusiasm for Trump here in Miami Dade is through the roof if yard signs and bumper stickers are anything to go by. If Trump does well in Dade County, the rest of the state imo will offset Broward, West Palm, Orlando, Tampa and other cities.

The views in that speech by the Cuban business man at RNC (if anyone happen to catch it) are shared by many Cubans and Venezuelans - they HATE any mention of socialism and where they feel it's led in their (former) countries.

How do they feel about autocratic dictators undermining elections and refusing to accept the results when they lose?

[RandomGuy]

He has over $300 million cash on hand as of last month, I don't understand where all of that money is going when he's cancelling all of these ads.

Don't really care about Ohio since Biden easily wins in any scenario where that state is a close race, but every ad he cancels in Iowa helps Theresa Greenfield against Qoni Ernst :tu

Hmmm. I would guess:
They are beginning to realize they will lose. If they over-spend, they will not get another four years in office to grift to pay it back.

rats deserting a sinking ship.

[Bogie]

Hmmm. I would guess:
They are beginning to realize they will lose. If they over-spend, they will not get another four years in office to grift to pay it back.

rats deserting a sinking ship.

you really don’t think they have already determined that their path to winning is contesting the election and going through the courts?

[Will Hunting]

Hmmm. I would guess:
They are beginning to realize they will lose. If they over-spend, they will not get another four years in office to grift to pay it back.

rats deserting a sinking ship.
Yeah, methinks that's not it. Seems more likely they have a chunk of overpaid staffers from when Parscale was manager who have managed to keep collecting a paycheck this whole time.

[Will Hunting]

you really don’t think they have already determined that their path to winning is contesting the election and going through the courts?
I think their preferred path is sending it to congress where each state gets 1 vote (Dems are fighting hard for the at-large seat in Alaska and Montana for this scenario), with the courts being their back-up plan.

If it's a Bush v. Gore scenario where Biden is asking for a recount, SCOTUS will definitely rule in favor of Trump, but if Biden is winning and Trump is asking for millions of mail-in ballots to be uncounted in order to change the results, I don't think SCOTUS goes that far to help Trump. Roberts and Gorsuch are pieces of shit but they have too much self respect to outright flout democracy.

[Spurminator]

Cancelled TV buys could just be a reallocation of funds into digital or other media.

[Will Hunting]

Cancelled TV buys could just be a reallocation of funds into digital or other media.
Trump has been rapidly cancelling TV buys for awhile though. IIRC he was off the air in Michigan for the better part of July and August, and Biden is even outspending him on facebook now.

It makes sense that he's spending less on ads because he has a lot more field offices and ground workers than Biden, but I wouldn't expect an incumbent to be losing the ad spending battle as badly as Trump is, especially compared to a guy who's campaign was almost broke when the primary was over.

[rmt]

Pretty soon the Venezuelan people will realize that Trump is pretty much another Hugo Chavez.

It's the Dems in whom the Venezuelans and Cubans see the familiar path of their former countries - they go after your guns, (control) the press and get rid of religion - that's not Trump.

[Splits]

enthusiasm for Trump here in Miami Dade is through the roof if yard signs and bumper stickers are anything to go by

:lmao thinking your yard sign and shitty bumper sticker are indicators for anything

[Reck]

It's the Dems in whom the Venezuelans and Cubans see the familiar path of their former countries - they go after your guns, (control) the press and get rid of religion - that's not Trump.

Give one example of "dems" taking your gun. One

[GB20]

It's the Dems in whom the Venezuelans and Cubans see the familiar path of their former countries - they go after your guns, (control) the press and get rid of religion - that's not Trump.
My Venezuelan folks keep telling me that This Trump’s administration is running the country the same way Hugo Chavez was running it in the 90’s.

[rmt]

Give one example of "dems" taking your gun. One

This is what the Cubans tell me - the sequence of events leading to their former countries. The original comparison (not from me) was Trump similar to Chavez. Are you saying that Trump goes after guns more than the Dems. Seems a pretty clear choice to them - on one side more regulation, more of your money, more control vs the opposite.

[Reck]

This is what the Cubans tell me - the sequence of events leading to their former countries. The original comparison (not from me) was Trump similar to Chavez. Are you saying that Trump goes after guns more than the Dems. Seems a pretty clear choice to them - on one side more regulation, more of your money, more control vs the opposite.

Not saying anything either way.

But since you brought it up, republicans like to bring this non existent talking point for their benefit without actually pointing out to the facts or to an instance of a democrat actually showing up to your house to take said guns.

[weebo]

:lmao thinking your yard sign and shitty bumper sticker are indicators for anything

:lmao :lmao

[Will Hunting]

:lmao thinking your yard sign and shitty bumper sticker are indicators for anything
That’s at least an improvement over a few months ago when she said that bad traffic and long lines Pollo Tropical were economic indicators that Trump was in great shape for re-election.

[Will Hunting]

:lol this Iowa debate is a joke. Hopefully two equally shitty performance means advantage goes to the challenger and not the incumbent. Every answer from both candidates starts with "This issue is really important to me"

[SnakeBoy]

Not saying anything either way.

But since you brought it up, republicans like to bring this non existent talking point for their benefit without actually pointing out to the facts or to an instance of a democrat actually showing up to your house to take said guns.

Joe said he's sending Beto to do it if elected

[Reck]

Joe said he's sending Beto to do it if elected

Nice. At least you’ll get a beer out of that rough deal. :tu

[Reck]

:lol this Iowa debate is a joke. Hopefully two equally shitty performance means advantage goes to the challenger and not the incumbent. Every answer from both candidates starts with "This issue is really important to me"

Greenfield is that shitty?

[Will Hunting]

Greenfield is that shitty?
They're both awful, the moderators are horrible too.

Ernst is worse on the actual issues (healthcare is definitely going to be a real problem for every Republican Senator this year), but Greenfield's delivery is terrible and she can't answer questions directly (and she's not particularly good at ignoring the question either)

[baseline bum]

This is what the Cubans tell me - the sequence of events leading to their former countries. The original comparison (not from me) was Trump similar to Chavez. Are you saying that Trump goes after guns more than the Dems. Seems a pretty clear choice to them - on one side more regulation, more of your money, more control vs the opposite.

Trump made bump stocks illegal, which is more than Obama ever did to gun owners.

[Will Hunting]

Greenfield might be the de facto winner of that debate after Ernst's crazy abortion fear mongering at the end.

Holy shit the senate is one fucked up place if this is the best middle America has to offer.

[ChumpDumper]

Joe said he's sending Beto to do it if elected:tu

[spurraider21]

Greenfield might be the de facto winner of that debate after Ernst's crazy abortion fear mongering at the end.

Holy shit the senate is one fucked up place if this is the best middle America has to offer.
unless people like the crazy abortion stuff

[Will Hunting]

unless people like the crazy abortion stuff
Iowa has a pro choice majority, albeit not very large.

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/

[RandomGuy]

Another grifter, imagine that.

And he’ll get the job he’s been looking for for years. A nice payout for doing exactly nothing.

Sums up the modern Republican party.

[Will Hunting]

:lol more bad polling for Trump/incumbent Republicans

Down 3 to Biden in Georgia with Ossoff up 1 on Purdue

Warnock finally emerging as the Dem candidate in Georgia's special election, so it at least goes to a run-off

Statistical tie for presidential race in NC, but Cunningham up 6 on Thillis

[spurraider21]

Iowa has a pro choice majority, albeit not very large.

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/
yeah but what's their participation rate? and is the abortion fear mongering going to rile up the pro-life crowd to go vote in bigger numbers, etc

[Will Hunting]

yeah but what's their participation rate? and is the abortion fear mongering going to rile up the pro-life crowd to go vote in bigger numbers, etc
Ernst also said during the debate she thinks there's almost no chance Roe v. Wade ever gets overturned, so she was kinda talking out of both ends of her mouth. I don't think she had a direct strategy of trying to turn out the pro life vote.

[spurraider21]

Ernst also said during the debate she thinks there's almost no chance Roe v. Wade ever gets overturned, so she was kinda talking out of both ends of her mouth. I don't think she had a direct strategy of trying to turn out the pro life vote.
the "radical abortionists" point was about having no limitations or restrictions, not specifically about banning it outright

[Will Hunting]

:lol Rasmussen poll has Biden up 8 points nationally, and two different polls have Kansas senate race as a tossup

[Will Hunting]

Kansas electing a Democratic Governor and potentially a Dem senator is why Democrats shouldn't be worried about nuking the filibuster - any future scenario where the Republican party has unchecked authority to pass legislation without a Democratic filibuster to stop them would shift the country to the left the same way Brownbackonomics have shifted Kansas to the left. In <4 years they'd pass a flat tax with all kinds of oligarch friendly loophole and would then be gutting all public services and safety nets after their tax cuts didn't "pay for themselves".

[RandomGuy]

Joe said he's sending Beto to do it if elected

Why does your party have such shitty candidates?

[LkrFan]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1311362534184755200?s=19

[Will Hunting]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1311362534184755200?s=19
Outside of The Decision which really wasn't a big deal at all, I can't think of an athlete who's more of a model citizen than Lebron.

[LkrFan]

Outside of The Decision which really wasn't a big deal at all, I can't think of an athlete who's more of a model citizen than Lebron.

Agreed. I hated on him for years in protecting Kobe's legacy. Then he signed with the Lakers without another star. Then he built a public school for underprivileged children. Now this.

Other than Laker haters, MJ stans, and Trumpers, who can really not like this guy? Seriously.

And yes, I'm a full fledged hypocrite :lol

[baseline bum]

Outside of The Decision which really wasn't a big deal at all, I can't think of an athlete who's more of a model citizen than Lebron.

Would have been funny to see Larry Bird and Karl Malone get crucified as deadbeat dads on social media if they were playing today.

[LkrFan]

Would have been funny to see Larry Bird and Karl Malone get crucified as deadbeat dads on social media if they were playing today.

Especially Mailman, but I didn't know about Larry Turd? :wow

[Will Hunting]

Steve Nash was the biggest deadbeat dad of them all and he faced no criticism.

Nash wanted a court order preventing his ex-wife from moving to California with their kids because it would cost him more in child support payments (even though he was living in California at the time).

[baseline bum]

Especially Mailman, but I didn't know about Larry Turd? :wow

Bird didn't rape a kid and leave her alone to raise the kid like Malone. Prob shouldn't call Bird a deadbeat dad since at least he paid child support. but wanted no part of being father to one of his daughters.

[baseline bum]

Steve Nash was the biggest deadbeat dad of them all and he faced no criticism.

Nash wanted a court order preventing his ex-wife from moving to California with their kids because it would cost him more in child support payments (even though he was living in California at the time).

Should have just stayed right on the AZ border and taken Kobe's chopper

[Spurminator]

Agreed. I hated on him for years in protecting Kobe's legacy. Then he signed with the Lakers without another star. Then he built a public school for underprivileged children. Now this.

Other than Laker haters, MJ stans, and Trumpers, who can really not like this guy? Seriously.

And yes, I'm a full fledged hypocrite :lol

I'm a Laker hater but I'm a big Lebron fan.

[LkrFan]

Bird didn't rape a kid and leave her alone to raise the kid like Malone. Prob shouldn't call Bird a deadbeat dad since at least he paid child support. but wanted no part of being father to one of his daughters.

That's just as bad. Daughters need their dads. Fuck Bird for that. :td

[LkrFan]

I'm a Laker hater but I'm a big Lebron fan.

Welcome to the LeResistance :toast

[Will Hunting]

Welcome to the LeResistance :toast
Since Miami has no chance, I'm hoping LA can sweep so Lebron has more time to leave the bubble and help campaign in black areas.

[LkrFan]

Since Miami has no chance, I'm hoping LA can sweep so Lebron has more time to leave the bubble and help campaign in black areas.

You're not gonna bait me into testing the powers of the LkrFan curse. No comments son :lol

[spurraider21]

Outside of The Decision which really wasn't a big deal at all, I can't think of an athlete who's more of a model citizen than Lebron.
proceeds of the decision went to charity too, so even that shitty move had some redeeming quality

[Splits]

Agreed. I hated on him for years in protecting Kobe's legacy. Then he signed with the Lakers without another star. Then he built a public school for underprivileged children. Now this.

Other than Laker haters, MJ stans, and Trumpers, who can really not like this guy? Seriously.

And yes, I'm a full fledged hypocrite :lol

Yes, yes you are. Kobe is not even top-20, especially since he forced his pilot to fly his chopper in the fog, in the most dangerous conditions possible, with his young daughter aboard, when all LA law enforcement and emergency services had grounded their aircraft. And you were arguing for years Bron was a fraud because he didn't win all of the 8-straight finals he was in while Kirby side-kicked his way to 5 and Tim single handedly made the Spurs a household name.

[spurraider21]

4/5 polls that have come out since july have this race within the margin of error

https://i.gyazo.com/0c8e9076a2f3eda9a4722e1ec26495a0.png

[Will Hunting]

4/5 polls that have come out since july have this race within the margin of error

https://i.gyazo.com/0c8e9076a2f3eda9a4722e1ec26495a0.png
What’s crazy is if you read the granular details of the poll, Harrison is so much more well liked than Lady G is. I’ve gotta think that will ultimately count for something.

[Isitjustme?]

Dang Rasmussen has an eight point lead now 1311338451015471105

:wow

[RandomGuy]

Dang Rasmussen has an eight point lead now 1311338451015471105

:wow

Biden has an 80% chance now

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Things tend to crystalize about now. Debates dont' change much. Be interesting to see what happens after we have our first on in a few weeks.

[RandomGuy]

What’s crazy is if you read the granular details of the poll, Harrison is so much more well liked than Lady G is. I’ve gotta think that will ultimately count for something.

Graham has been making the rounds on Fox begging for cash. :cry

[Will Hunting]

Biden has an 80% chance now

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Things tend to crystalize about now. Debates dont' change much. Be interesting to see what happens after we have our first on in a few weeks.
First post-debate poll released today has Biden +13. It's a lower quality pollster but that's still up from its last poll. 538 national average has gone from +7.1 to +7.9 in the last few days.

This could very well be the week where Trump's campaign collapses.

Meanwhile the senators in close races continue to get (rightfully) hammered for trying to repeal Obamacare.

[Reck]

Graham has been making the rounds on Fox begging for cash. :cry

I would love to see internal pollings on this race. Jamie must have a clear lead for him to be in tears while he begs trumpsters for their money.

If it shows a tied race with public polls, the ones done for the campaign itself must be a doozy.

[baseline bum]

I would love to see internal pollings on this race. Jamie must have a clear lead for him to be in tears while he begs trumpsters for their money.

If it shows a tied race with public polls, the ones done for the campaign itself must be a doozy.

Lady G is always either crying or screaming

[Reck]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519154-biden-campaign-to-begin-in-person-canvassing%3famp

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) there you go. Not that it matters because Trump was is a train wreck. He’s officially trailing Biden in Iowa poll averages according to 538.

EDIT: Trump took it back today by .04 thanks to two polls released today.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519154-biden-campaign-to-begin-in-person-canvassing%3famp

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) there you go. Not that it matters because Trump was is a train wreck. He’s officially trailing Biden in Iowa poll averages according to 538.

EDIT: Trump took it back today by .04 thanks to two polls released today.
every time I argue with you for no reason they end up doing what I say they should do so it's working :lol

I think they should spend more campaigning in Iowa just because of the senate race there. I also think that if Trump intends to contest this election in court, the more states he's losing in and needs ballots tossed in order win, the harder it is for him to pull it off (the fact we're having a conversation about how much Biden needs to win by in order for Trump and our corrupt courts to not steal the election is so fucking ridiculous).

[Reck]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/texas-mail-ballot-drop-vote-2020-election-b744020.html?utm_source=reddit.com

:lol The fact they have to go to these extremes to supress the vote tells me Biden actually has a shot to win. IN TEXAS.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/texas-mail-ballot-drop-vote-2020-election-b744020.html?utm_source=reddit.com

:lol The fact they have to go to these extremes to supress the vote tells me Biden actually has a shot to win. IN TEXAS.
I think they're more motivated by several close house races in the Houston area and making sure they keep control of the state legislature. If the Democrats flip one state house in TX Republicans lose the partisan gerrymandering advantage in Texas for the next 10 years.

If they're getting this desperate with voter suppression, we should assume they plan to take 2020 gerrymandering to an ungodly level in the states they control. In states where they don't have control now but do in 2022 they'll probably pass a law that allows them to redistrict again. Democrats need to assume that Republicans are going to look for every inch to cheat the system from now on and act accordingly.

[RandomGuy]

I think they're more motivated by several close house races in the Houston area and making sure they keep control of the state legislature. If the Democrats flip one state house in TX Republicans lose the partisan gerrymandering advantage in Texas for the next 10 years.

If they're getting this desperate with voter suppression, we should assume they plan to take 2020 gerrymandering to an ungodly level in the states they control. In states where they don't have control now but do in 2022 they'll probably pass a law that allows them to redistrict again. Democrats need to assume that Republicans are going to look for every inch to cheat the system from now on and act accordingly.

... and if the lege actually flips entirely, and the Dems can ratfuck the Republicans by gerrymandering the shit out of things, I will applaud that happily. Fuck the GOP and their voters. Read the whirlwhind. ;)

[Will Hunting]

... and if the lege actually flips entirely, and the Dems can ratfuck the Republicans by gerrymandering the shit out of things, I will applaud that happily. Fuck the GOP and their voters. Read the whirlwhind. ;)
Don't the new districts still need Abbott's sign off even if Dems control both houses? If not you can be sure Texas passes a lame duck bill between election day and inauguration that gives Abbott veto power over the new districts in the event Democrats win both houses.

[RandomGuy]

Don't the new districts still need Abbott's sign off even if Dems control both houses? If not you can be sure Texas passes a lame duck bill between election day and inauguration that gives Abbott veto power over the new districts in the event Democrats win both houses.

yeah, I know. Just wishcasting.

I would welcome the fight though.

As angry as I am, I would be just as happy with a totally non-partisan fair map. Happier actually.

Would be nice to have some sort of actual debate about it. Not that I think the modern fascist party is capable of such. :( The GOP needs to be crushed so badly that either a new centrist party emerges, or the Republicans try to not be extremist nutbags. Sadly neither will probably happen.

[Will Hunting]

yeah, I know. Just wishcasting.

I would welcome the fight though.

As angry as I am, I would be just as happy with a totally non-partisan fair map. Happier actually.
Would be nice to have some sort of actual debate about it. Not that I think the modern fascist party is capable of such. :( The GOP needs to be crushed so badly that either a new centrist party emerges, or the Republicans try to not be extremist nutbags. Sadly neither will probably happen.
Yeah the fairness ship has sailed. When Democrats aim for a fair, up the middle solution and Republicans aim for the most one sided right wing outcome imaginable, we end up somewhere in between.

[Will Hunting]

New poll has Greenfield up by TWELVE on Ernst, and post debate poll has Biden up 2 in Georgia.

This election would be game set match if not for all the uncertainty with respect to voter suppression and attempts by Trump to steal it.

[RandomGuy]

Yeah the fairness ship has sailed. When Democrats aim for a fair, up the middle solution and Republicans aim for the most one sided right wing outcome imaginable, we end up somewhere in between.

This. A thousand fucking times this.

If they ever need volunteers to pull the string on the guillotine, I'm there.

[DarrinS]

If they ever need volunteers to pull the string on the guillotine, I'm there.

Wow

[Will Hunting]

If they ever need volunteers to pull the string on the guillotine, I'm there.
Stand back and stand by!

[Spurminator]

Wow

"I do declare this comment gives me the vapors!"

[Reck]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) go watch the South Carolina Senate debate between Jamie and Lady G. :lmao

He knows he’s going to lose to a black man in SC. Rofl

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) go watch the South Carolina Senate debate between Jamie and Lady G. :lmao

He knows he’s going to lose to a black man in SC. Rofl
Oh I just watched it, that was a fucking bloodbath. Lady G was nervously rocking back and forth the whole time whenever Harrison was laying into him.

[baseline bum]

Think Lady G pulled a Trump and did his debate COVID+ in the hope of infecting his opponent?

[ChumpDumper]

Think Lady G pulled a Trump and did his debate COVID+ in the hope of infecting his opponent?
Jamie was too smart and brought a drum shield.

[Reck]

Think Lady G pulled a Trump and did his debate COVID+ in the hope of infecting his opponent?

Good luck with that. Jamie Harrison had a double plexi glass between him and the gay guy. :lol

[Will Hunting]

Think Lady G pulled a Trump and did his debate COVID+ in the hope of infecting his opponent?
Harrison brought his own dividing panels and put them up between him and Graham :lmao, he wasn't taking that chance

https://static.independent.co.uk/2020/10/04/03/Screen%2520Shot%25202020-10-03%2520at%25208.26.16%2520PM.jpg?width=982&height=726

[baseline bum]

Harrison brought his own dividing panels and put them up between him and Graham :lmao, he wasn't taking that chance

https://static.independent.co.uk/2020/10/04/03/Screen%2520Shot%25202020-10-03%2520at%25208.26.16%2520PM.jpg?width=982&height=726

Probably just for optics but LMAO

[Will Hunting]

Reck I haven't watched this debate but Joni Ernst looks like an evil bitch in this clip. She just grins as Greenfield names off where her campaign money comes from :lol

1312566918470152197

[Will Hunting]

:lmao jesus, she even got Joni Ernst to apologize for her COVIDspiracy theory

I think their first debate was just a lack of experience, she seems to have gotten the hang of it now

1312557016284565505

[GB20]

Lindsey Graham got killed tonight by Jaime Harrison in the debate.

[gambit1990]

i actually thought harrison could've done even better but solid job at looking even keel.

hopefully more are scheduled because it will just help him.

[Reck]

Reck (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=14412) I haven't watched this debate but Joni Ernst looks like an evil bitch in this clip. She just grins as Greenfield names off where her campaign money comes from :lol

1312566918470152197

I’ve always thought that. The long grey hair sells that witch image well. What a weird approach.

Got her elected the first time so I guess it does work with the crazy low iq conservatives over there.

[Will Hunting]

I’ve always thought that. The long grey hair sells that witch image well. What a weird approach.

Got her elected the first time so I guess it does work with the crazy low iq conservatives over there.
The first time she was running was in a waive year for Republicans against a guy who was recorded talking about "dumb Iowa farmers" :lol

[Will Hunting]

The one sided reactions to Jaime Harrison's debate performance are stunning. Lincoln Project Moderates and bleeding heart progressives are both fawning over him, if he beats Lindsey Graham he's got future president potential.

[Reck]

The one sided reactions to Jaime Harrison's debate performance are stunning. Lincoln Project Moderates and bleeding heart progressives are both fawning over him, if he beats Lindsey Graham he's got future president potential.

You're fawning over a moderate?

He seems like a post prime Obama to me, which is still good, imo.

[Will Hunting]

You're fawning over a moderate?

He seems like a post prime Obama to me, which is still good, imo.
Not just me. Even the most left wing groups like Sunrise Movement like him. Even friends of mine who pay no attention to politics texted me saying they saw clips of the debate and thought Harrison crushed it - you can't watch that debate and not like the guy. It was almost his coming out party, much like Obama's 2004 DNC speech was.

[Reck]

Not just me. Even the most left wing groups like Sunrise Movement like him. Even friends of mine who pay no attention to politics texted me saying they saw clips of the debate and thought Harrison crushed it - you can't watch that debate and not like the guy. It was almost his coming out party, much like Obama's 2004 DNC speech was.

I'm not saying he's not a good candidate.

Just pointing out before the hate comes in later. He shat on the green new day and has the same position on Obamacare as Biden which wants it expanded, instead of done away with.

[Will Hunting]

I'm not saying he's not a good candidate.

Just pointing out before the hate comes in later. He shat on the green new day and has the same position on Obamacare as Biden which wants it expanded, instead of done away with.
He's running in South Carolina, I wouldn't expect him to be a progressive.

Either way, the BernieBros who aren't retarded should know that expanding Obamacare with a public option is something they should support because it's the next step on the path to single payer. Canada arrived at single payer the same way - it first passed an Obamacare-style healthcare plan and ultimately got to single payer. The more you shift the status quo on healthcare to the left the more inevitable single payer becomes, but that kind of reform doesn't happen overnight in Murica. This is the country that needed a civil war to abolish slavery.

Same thing with the GND - Biden's plan is a good first step. Get it passed so the country sees there's a way to combat climate change while also creating jobs, and then expand it incrementally.

I could see Harrison re-positioning himself as a more progressive Biden in 2024 to expand on his policies. You also know if he runs he gets that all-important Massa Clyburn endorsement :lol

[Reck]

1312803416935194624 (https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1312803416935194624?s=21)

:lmao

[Reck]

1313181384454926337 (https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1313181384454926337?s=21)
Will Hunting Looks like you were worried for nothing. Post tame sexting messages

[Will Hunting]

1313181384454926337 (https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1313181384454926337?s=21)
Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) Looks like you were worried for nothing. Post tame sexting messages
I'm still worried because we could see the effects develop over the next 2-3 weeks as Tillis launches attack ads over it, but yeah I'm less concerned after this poll (especially since it still shows him running ahead of Biden in NC which is where he was running before) and due to the fact there is just so much other shit dominating the news cycle right now. The average voter won't give a shit about PG-13 rated text messages (and that might even be a stretch) when said voter is waiting in line at the food bank.

Btw - another dark horse race to keep your eye on - Espy vs. Hyde-Smith in Mississippi. Hyde-Smith isn't popular at all and Espy is starting to raise a lot of money.

[ElNono]

1313181384454926337 (https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1313181384454926337?s=21)
Will Hunting Looks like you were worried for nothing. Post tame sexting messages

That +4 I assume is within the margin of error...

[Reck]

That +4 I assume is within the margin of error...

Just a touch outside of it according to realclearpolitics. 3.3 MoE

[RandomGuy]

Not just me. Even the most left wing groups like Sunrise Movement like him. Even friends of mine who pay no attention to politics texted me saying they saw clips of the debate and thought Harrison crushed it - you can't watch that debate and not like the guy. It was almost his coming out party, much like Obama's 2004 DNC speech was.

Graham looked out of touch and ... a bit sad, tbh. I think a good chunk of his soul got ripped out into the horcrux that is Trumps hair.

[RandomGuy]

You're fawning over a moderate?

He seems like a post prime Obama to me, which is still good, imo.

Saw a really interesting stat about non-voting black people in states that Trump won narrowly, where the non-voters were more than the margin of victory, often by an order of magnitude.

Dems pick another african-american to run for president in a few years... it will be fun to watch the "we're not racist, but... " brigade handle that.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-poll-biden-leads-trump-double-digits-0d0d102f-3850-484e-ba43-9901504d4300.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

Biden up 12 points with registered voters in Pennsylvania, 8 points higher than the previous Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania.

Just focus on getting turnout for the next 30 days - the only way Trump wins now is with massive voter suppression.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-poll-biden-leads-trump-double-digits-0d0d102f-3850-484e-ba43-9901504d4300.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

Biden up 12 points with registered voters in Pennsylvania, 8 points higher than the previous Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania.

Just focus on getting turnout for the next 30 days - the only way Trump wins now is with massive voter suppression.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

83% chance now. "Debate" shitshow + Trump getting stupid COVID = momentum for Biden, it would seem

[Will Hunting]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

83% chance now. "Debate" shitshow + Trump getting stupid COVID = momentum for Biden, it would seem
The 83% is a polls plus forecast as well, meaning it allows for the possibility of polls tightening over the next 30 days. If the election were held today with polls where they are, Biden's odds would be 90+%.

Like I said, start making campaign appearances in states that won't decide the election but have important senate races. Iowa, Montana, Georgia, etc. Just a few visits to those states would go a long way as Trump doesn't have the luxury of being able to visit them. Their voters aren't used to seeing presidents campaigning in their state. Not having to rely on Joe Manchin is the difference between Biden getting a lot done as president or getting nothing done.

[RandomGuy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1260590950289727490


Not a generic ballot poll.

Also drawn over all battleground states as a whole. They don't vote as a block, so it can be generally indicative of the average, but electoral college is not allocated on that average.

Clutch at some more straws. It's funny watching you try. It's almost as if you suck at critical thinking.

Be interesting to see how that mix of states actually goes in a few weeks.

[RandomGuy]

The 83% is a polls plus forecast as well, meaning it allows for the possibility of polls tightening over the next 30 days. If the election were held today with polls where they are, Biden's odds would be 90+%.

Like I said, start making campaign appearances in states that won't decide the election but have important senate races. Iowa, Montana, Georgia, etc. Just a few visits to those states would go a long way as Trump doesn't have the luxury of being able to visit them. Their voters aren't used to seeing presidents campaigning in their state. Not having to rely on Joe Manchin is the difference between Biden getting a lot done as president or getting nothing done.

Sort of a Sophies choice.

If you don't win, and win convincingly, you risk an outright coup attempt.
If you spend your time winning convincingly, you run the risk of having fucking goddamned POS Mitch McConnel killing every bill that is sent to him.

[Will Hunting]

Sort of a Sophies choice.

If you don't win, and win convincingly, you risk an outright coup attempt.
If you spend your time winning convincingly, you run the risk of having fucking goddamned POS Mitch McConnel killing every bill that is sent to him.
Montana kills two birds with one stone. They need to win the at-large house seat in Montana in the event the presidential election goes to a house vote. Iowa is another state where they need to defend house seats for the scenario where the house decides the race.

I also don't think the two scenarios you're describing are mutually exclusive. Campaigning in Iowa creates another state where Trump needs to cheat to win, and it's a state that doesn't have mass population centers where it's easier to create long lines and disenfranchise voters.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

83% chance now. "Debate" shitshow + Trump getting stupid COVID = momentum for Biden, it would seem

Interesting thing about this graph is the single MOST likely outcome is Biden gets about 411 electoral college votes, with Trump getting about 120 or so.

[RandomGuy]

Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Trump loses support among three key demographics after debate and COVID-19 diagnosis

https://news.yahoo.com/yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-trump-loses-support-among-three-key-demographics-after-debate-and-covid-19-diagnosis-153500657.html


No Boris pity bump for Trump.

[Reck]

Be interesting to see how that mix of states actually goes in a few weeks.

TSA is still waiting for that Boris Johnson/Bolsenaro like bump for Trump. :lol

[spurraider21]

Stand back and stand by!
Somebody should condemn RandomGuy

[RandomGuy]

Somebody should condemn RandomGuy

:depressed

[ElNono]

Condemned

[AaronY]

I'm not saying he's not a good candidate.

Just pointing out before the hate comes in later. He shat on the green new day and has the same position on Obamacare as Biden which wants it expanded, instead of done away with.
Hmmm tell me more..not gonna lie tho..getting aroused at what I am hearing so far

[gambit1990]

the wave will be the best part of 2020.

trump made america great again by energizing people to vote against him.

[AaronY]

the wave will be the best part of 2020.

trump made america great again by energizing people to vote against him.
I don't think people are ready for how fast he will become a complete laughing stock if this goes the way its looking right now

[Will Hunting]

I don't think people are ready for how fast he will become a complete laughing stock if this goes the way its looking right now
Most Republicans are going to immediately pivot to “Lol I was jess trolling I never liked him but pretended to to trigger da libs!”

[spurraider21]

I don't think people are ready for how fast he will become a complete laughing stock if this goes the way its looking right now


Most Republicans are going to immediately pivot to “Lol I was jess trolling I never liked him but pretended to to trigger da libs!”
for the people, sure. but wtf happens to the party post trump? maybe they go into denial and run trump again in 2024 :lol

[Reck]

for the people, sure. but wtf happens to the party post trump? maybe they go into denial and run trump again in 2024 :lol

COVID side effects will end up killing him. Limited studies have shown how the virus fucks up your nervous system after you’ve “beat it.”

[ElNono]

for the people, sure. but wtf happens to the party post trump? maybe they go into denial and run trump again in 2024 :lol

And Jr isn't going anywhere... he has another 3 'trigger dem libs' books to put his name on until 2024 :lol

[Will Hunting]

for the people, sure. but wtf happens to the party post trump? maybe they go into denial and run trump again in 2024 :lol
IMO a lot will depend on what the Democrats do. If the Democrats kill the filibuster and start banging out legislation, the Republicans party might have to start thinking about shifting its platform, particularly on healthcare and climate change.

If it's a repeat of 2009 where the Democrats allow the Republicans to be an loud minority that weaponizes the filibuster and forces austerity, the Republicans won't change at all and will probably run Tom Cotton in 2024.

[Reck]

IMO a lot will depend on what the Democrats do. If the Democrats kill the filibuster and start banging out legislation, the Republicans party might have to start thinking about shifting its platform, particularly on healthcare and climate change.

If it's a repeat of 2009 where the Democrats allow the Republicans to be an loud minority that weaponizes the filibuster and forces austerity, the Republicans won't change at all and will probably run Tom Cotton in 2024.

They will have to shift ideology. Nothing they can do because the demographics are shifting and they're not going their way.

They're going to lose Texas in about 4-6 more years. It has already started. Signs are all there.

Already lost Arizona for all intent and purposes too.

[Spurminator]

for the people, sure. but wtf happens to the party post trump? maybe they go into denial and run trump again in 2024 :lol

Not much unless Democrats add DC and PR. Unless active steps are taken to reduce the disproportionate influence of the 19% of the population that lives in Rural America, Trump-types will continue to be their best bet to motivate their base. They're going to have to moderate to appeal more to the educated.

[RandomGuy]

the wave will be the best part of 2020.

trump made america great again by energizing people to vote against him.

I can tell you from first hand experience that the Texas Democratic party itself came alive in 2018, and built a solid local ground game where there wasn't one before. Run, in great part, by women, at least in my neck of the woods.

GOP lost seats in the lege in 2018, and look to lose more ground this year, by the analysis I have seen.

Repbulican Governor is going full on voter suppression at this point, so that the Republican party can cling to power a little longer.

They have to cheat to win elections. because.. why? their policies are so great? they are so effective at running governments? Fuck, man the Texas Attorney General is under multiple felony indictments and investigations, and still won't resign.

[RandomGuy]

Not much unless Democrats add DC and PR. Unless active steps are taken to reduce the disproportionate influence of the 19% of the population that lives in Rural America, Trump-types will continue to be their best bet to motivate their base. They're going to have to moderate to appeal more to the educated.

40 million americans in the smallest states have 46 senators.
40 million americand in California have two.

Fucking slave state fuckery reaching through time to fuck us over.

[RandomGuy]

I don't think people are ready for how fast he will become a complete laughing stock if this goes the way its looking right now

Dunno. People do turn on leaders, but Trump has worked hard to cultivate personal loyalty. He may have just captured the party for the remainder of his lifespan.

the Qanon cult will be hard to root out.

[Reck]

Yo Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) you watching the Arizona senate debate?

:lmao all of these GOP senators are fucking retarded. McCunty just said Mark Kelly wants socialized medical care and linked him with Bernie Sanders.

[Will Hunting]

Yo Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) you watching the Arizona senate debate?

:lmao all of these GOP senators are fucking retarded. McCunty just said Mark Kelly wants socialized medical care and linked him with Bernie Sanders.
I'm not watching it but people back at home are. Doesn't sound like MAGA McSally is doing very well.

[Reck]

What’s this lame ass nickname she has for Kelly. Counterfeit Kelly.

Real original there, whore.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah I just turned it on. McSally sounds shrill and cunty.

[Reck]

Yeah I just turned it on. McSally sounds shrill and cunty.

She’s the female version of Robot little Marco. Shrill voice and her head bops like one of those bobbleheads.

[Will Hunting]

She’s the female version of Robot little Marco. Shrill voice and her head bops like one of those bobbleheads.
:lmao people on twitter calling her Manhands McSally

[Will Hunting]

Holy shit McSally is fucking terrible.

[Reck]

I feel like Kelly flopped that endorsement question. I would have said, yes I do accept their endorsements.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Ilham Imar, Tlib or AOC’s endorsements. I welcome them. Easy.

[Will Hunting]

I feel like Kelly flopped that endorsement question. I would have said, yes I do accept their endorsements.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Ilham Imar, Tlib or AOC’s endorsements. I welcome them. Easy.
He should run over and take a piss on the moderator and still win. This McSally performance is so bad.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao every question she gets about Trump is dodge city

[Reck]

McSally hasn’t answered a single question since I put this on a good 30 minutes ago.

[Will Hunting]

McSally hasn’t answered a single question since I put this on a good 30 minutes ago.
:lmao every question she gets somehow turns into :cry but Mark Kelly is friends with AOC and Bernie Sanders :cry

[Reck]

Green bad deal. :lmao but according to TSA republicans are much better at memes and witty talking points.

[RD2191]

What’s this lame ass nickname she has for Kelly. Counterfeit Kelly.

Real original there, whore.
:lol

[Reck]

McSally is sad. Begging for more debates on live TV.

Shes freaking horrible. She learned nothing from Trump’s fuck ups.

She thinks insulting Kelly every time she opens her mouth is a good tactic. Verdict has already been rendered on that with Trump and McCain.

[Will Hunting]

McSally is sad. Begging for more debates on live TV.

Shes freaking horrible. She learned nothing from Trump’s fuck ups.

She thinks insulting Kelly every time she opens her mouth is a good tactic. Verdict has already been rendered on that with Trump and McCain.
Search for #AZSen on twitter. The tweets are pretty uniform in terms of who won that debate :lmao

[Will Hunting]

:lmao this is the best moment

1313671751398813698

[spurraider21]

:lmao this is the best moment

1313671751398813698
to be fair she's in an impossible spot :lol

trump isn't popular, especially now. even in AZ he's in trouble with polling. but she can't say no because she needs RNC support. if she says shit about trump he'll start unleashing hell

[Will Hunting]

to be fair she's in an impossible spot :lol

trump isn't popular, especially now. even in AZ he's in trouble with polling. but she can't say no because she needs RNC support. if she says shit about trump he'll start unleashing hell
She kinda put herself in that spot. She got elected to congress as a bipartisan centrist, but once Trump got elected she took a hard turn to the right and has been a Trump sycophant the last 4 years. She was out front leading the charge to repeal Obamacare.

[Will Hunting]

:lol

1313689921350066181

[Reck]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/05/politics/trump-ads-ohio-iowa/index.html

A day old article but lol still pulling ads from battleground states for a third week in a row as Biden closest in.

[Will Hunting]

:lol more bad polls for Trump and the GOP in Iowa and Texas

Biden up 1 point in Iowa & tied in Texas; Greenfield up 3 in Iowa and Hegar only down 1 in Texas

Stupid ass Beto should have run for senate instead of president; he would have won this time around.

[Reck]

:lol more bad polls for Trump and the GOP in Iowa and Texas

Biden up 1 point in Iowa & tied in Texas; Greenfield up 3 in Iowa and Hegar only down 1 in Texas

Stupid ass Beto should have run for senate instead of president; he would have won this time around.

1313903560405536771

11 In Florida is bullshit.

But I bet it's anywhere from 5-7 points in reality which is still huge given that Florida is notorious for always been close.

[baseline bum]

Stupid ass Beto should have run for senate instead of president; he would have won this time around.

:pctoss

[Will Hunting]

1313903560405536771

11 In Florida is bullshit.

But I bet it's anywhere from 5-7 points in reality which is still huge given that Florida is notorious for always been close.
Quinnipiac is a left leaning pollster but I wouldn't have expected a lead of 11 in Florida. The way Trump is losing old people, I'll bet Florida is outside the margin of error at the very least. Trump's strategy of being ahead on election night and then trying to stop vote counting goes out the window if he's losing Florida.

Greenfield being up by 5 is refreshing but again, left leaning pollster.

[spurraider21]

Quinnipiac is a left leaning pollster but I wouldn't have expected a lead of 11 in Florida. The way Trump is losing old people, I'll bet Florida is outside the margin of error at the very least. Trump's strategy of being ahead on election night and then trying to stop vote counting goes out the window if he's losing Florida.

Greenfield being up by 5 is refreshing but again, left leaning pollster.
Rasmussen just put out a national poll showing Biden +12

[gambit1990]

Stupid ass Beto should have run for senate instead of president; he would have won this time around.
such a bad calculation on his part.

[Spurminator]

such a bad calculation on his part.

So was destroying his potential as a relevant candidate for any statewide or national office in the future by branding himself as the "We're coming for your fucking guns" guy during that pointless campaign.

[Will Hunting]

Heck, I think even Julian Castro could give Cornyn a run for his money this year. If whoever the fuck MJ Hegar is has the race within 5 points, Castro or Beto (before his gun comments) would have it as a toss up.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

84% chance Biden wins.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

84% chance Biden wins.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Bit over two months.

Roughly 73% chance of Biden win.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/


Bidens edge kind of ebbs and flows.

Currently at 77% chance of winning according to the gaming out of results at 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Dems slightly favored to pick up the Senate.

270 gives it straight up to biden, even if all the battleground states go to Trump.

https://www.270towin.com/


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden still favored at 77% chance.


Biden has an 80% chance now

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Things tend to crystalize about now. Debates dont' change much. Be interesting to see what happens after we have our first ...


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

83% chance now. "Debate" shitshow + Trump getting stupid COVID = momentum for Biden, it would seem

Seems like a clear trend.

Trump saying he won't do a stimulus before the election (even if he predictably changed it when the market predictably tanked) admits that the lack of a stimulus is entirely his fault.

Gutting Social Security/Medicare for an encore with the payroll tax thing...

Farcical.

[Will Hunting]

New polls

- Bullock up 2 in Montana

- Cunningham up 11 in North Carolina

- Hegar down 3 in Texas (fuck you for getting greedy Beto)

- fivethirtyeight poll of poll has Biden's lead up to 9.5%

[Reck]

New polls

- Bullock up 2 in Montana

- Cunningham up 11 in North Carolina

- Hegar down 3 in Texas (fuck you for getting greedy Beto)

- fivethirtyeight poll of poll has Biden's lead up to 9.5%

If Biden is winning the popular vote by nearly 10 points than Ohio, Iowa and possibly even Texas is going blue. Sorry, but it just will.

[Will Hunting]

If Biden is winning the popular vote by nearly 10 points than Ohio, Iowa and possibly even Texas is going blue. Sorry, but it just will.
Not even just those states. If he's winning by 10 or more nationally then South Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, Missouri, Montana and Mississippi are all in play. I'm not saying he wins all of them but all of those states have a cook partisan index of 11% or lower, so it's just a simple math exercise that those states could go either way if the country as a whole is +10% Democrat.

[spurraider21]

Not even just those states. If he's winning by 10 or more nationally then South Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, Missouri, Montana and Mississippi are all in play. I'm not saying he wins all of them but all of those states have a cook partisan index of 11% or lower, so it's just a simple math exercise that those states could go either way if the country as a whole is +10% Democrat.
538 gives Biden a better chance to win Texas than it gives Trump a chance to win Florida

[baseline bum]

Silver says his model would jump from Biden 85% to Biden 95% if the election was held today. Though probably not that great a model for 2020 since it doesn't factor in Trump and Barr trying to steal the election through the USPS and the wingnut courts.

[Will Hunting]

Silver says his model would jump from Biden 85% to Biden 95% if the election was held today. Though probably not that great a model for 2020 since it doesn't factor in Trump and Barr trying to steal the election through the USPS and the wingnut courts.
I'm still hopeful since historically GOP voter suppression/cheating has been able to swing close elections, not landslides.

[RandomGuy]

I'm still hopeful since historically GOP voter suppression/cheating has been able to swing close elections, not landslides.

Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

and will pretty much keep the House.

[Reck]

Graham doesn't want to take a coronavirus test for tonight's debate because he's scared shitless of getting his shit pushed in back to back by Jaime Harrison. :lmao

[RandomGuy]

Graham doesn't want to take a coronavirus test for tonight's debate because he's scared shitless of getting his shit pushed in back to back by Jaime Harrison. :lmao

Graham got destroyed and looked unhinged and out of touch in the first match up.

[gambit1990]

i hope the debate happens. harrison would do even better this time. he knows more of graham's playbook now.

[boutons_deux]

i hope the debate happens. harrison would do even better this time. he knows more of graham's playbook now.

a knitter Senator from Confederate slave state SC? that would be amazing

SC is 27% Black, 6% Hispanic or whatever they are called now.

[gambit1990]

things are looking good: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go

[RandomGuy]

things are looking good: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

85%

Most likely single scenario in their model is Biden = 420 or so, Trump = 115

[Reck]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

85%

Most likely single scenario in their model is Biden = 420 or so, Trump = 115

400+ EC is with Texas. Not happening.

[Will Hunting]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

85%

Most likely single scenario in their model is Biden = 420 or so, Trump = 115
It's most likely by a very slim plurality. I wouldn't objectively call it likely.

[RandomGuy]

It's most likely by a very slim plurality. I wouldn't objectively call it likely.

I was referring to the bump there at the edges of the graph.

Most outcomes, as you note, are far less of a runaway drubbing.

[gambit1990]

the jamie harrison debate tonight has been called off.

[Will Hunting]

the jamie harrison debate tonight has been called off.
Wtf? I saw a tweet from Harrison a few hours ago saying it was on. What happened?

[Will Hunting]

It's one thing for a candidate whose way up in the polls to back out of a debate, but not sure this is a good move for Harrison. A Democrat trying to unseat a Republican in South Carolina not only needs the debates but needs to be able to land punches. Hopefully Harrison has internal polling/data that makes him feel confident enough to do this.

[gambit1990]

Wtf? I saw a tweet from Harrison a few hours ago saying it was on. What happened?
yeah, i saw him tweet like an hour ago that he'd be there.

but:
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1314684697092317184?s=21

[Reck]

Wtf? I saw a tweet from Harrison a few hours ago saying it was on. What happened?

Same.

1 hour ago:
1314667560076562435

No follow up update if anything's changed by the man himself.

[Reck]

yeah, i saw him tweet like an hour ago that he'd be there.

but:
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1314684697092317184?s=21

Wait...that article itself is 1 hour old. I'm confused.

[gambit1990]

calculated move on jamie's part.

he gives up additional exposure but now when people ask why it isn't happening... everyone will know it's cause lindsey didn't wanna take a test.

[Will Hunting]

Pretty much this:

1314686875421077506

The level of dishonesty from Republicans in the last year is truly amazing.

[gambit1990]

i'm confused now too, lol.

it seems like they're just gonna get 30 minutes each to talk. instead of debating for an hour.

[Reck]

Pretty much this:

1314686875421077506

The level of dishonesty from Republicans in the last year is truly amazing.

Soooo if he has it, but doesn't get tested that means he won't get sick?

These people are moron. If you have it, you'll likely show symptoms at that age.

[gambit1990]

at least harrison will still get airtime. he can blast lindsey for not wanting to take a test.

[Will Hunting]

Soooo if he has it, but doesn't get tested that means he won't get sick?

These people are moron. If you have it, you'll likely show symptoms at that age.
If he doesn't get tested he won't have to quarantine. None of this has anything to do with health or safety :lol, it's all about being able to jam Barrett through.

[Will Hunting]

Presidential debate next week is cancelled.

Theres over 8 million ballots already cast (excluding the states that aren’t reporting totals, so actually more), heavily concentrated in swing states, and the rate at which that number increases is only going to go up as early voting picks up in more states. :lol Trump thinking it’s a good idea for him to go another 2 weeks before the next debate. Well probably have at least another 25 million votes cast during that time.

[Reck]

Presidential debate next week is cancelled.

Theres over 8 million ballots already cast (excluding the states that aren’t reporting totals, so actually more), heavily concentrated in swing states, and the rate at which that number increases is only going to go up as early voting picks up in more states. :lol Trump thinking it’s a good idea for him to go another 2 weeks before the next debate. Well probably have at least another 25 million votes cast during that time.

Where have you been?

Biden's campaign already has other plans. He and ABC will do a town hall of their own on the 15th and said they will be at the third and final debate the 22 Trump or no trump.


She added: “We accepted the three dates — Sept. 29, Oct. 15, and Oct. 22 — in June. Trump chose today to pull out of the October 15th debate. Trump's erratic behavior does not allow him to rewrite the calendar, and pick new dates of his choosing. We look forward to participating in the final debate, scheduled for October 22, which already is tied for the latest debate date in 40 years. Donald Trump can show up, or he can decline again. That's his choice."


https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-covid-19-updates-thursday/h_b250f8a5bb939bbf06c8052b3f3e758d

[spurraider21]

i'm confused now too, lol.

it seems like they're just gonna get 30 minutes each to talk. instead of debating for an hour.
this format sucks for harrison. he needs to make graham look stupid and call him out. its much easier for graham to just pivot and ramble about radical democrats in a 30 minute segment where harrison cant get anything across.

[Reck]

Harrison is managing to kill Graham and he's not even there.

[Reck]

1315274102295482368

:wow

Broke Beto's record and he never even led in the polls at any point. Harrison has managed to out fund and be ahead in the polls, too.

[Will Hunting]

1315274102295482368

:wow

Broke Beto's record and he never even led in the polls at any point. Harrison has managed to out fund and be ahead in the polls, too.
Like I said. If he wins this senate race, he'll be running for president sooner than you think.

1315245764524879874

Lady G probably helped him when he said black people can only go places in South Carolina if they're conservative :lmao

[Will Hunting]

Just as a side note, the amount of money getting dumped into these senate races has gotten so fucking out of control thanks to Citizens United. The North Carolina and Iowa senate races will each have over $200 million of spending by election day (especially crazy given how cheap advertising in Iowa is), with 10 more that will have somewhere between $100 million to $200 million just on ads alone, and 90+% of that spending is money that comes from outside the state. This country is so fucked up.

[Reck]

Lady G probably helped him when he said black people can only go places in South Carolina if they're conservative :lmao

Just saw another clip where he said if democrats win they'll bring "a parade of horrible" to congress. Whatever that means. :lol He's shitless scared.

1315294702242017281

I think at this point not doing interviews helps him more.

[Reck]

:lmao Trump is madly tweeting at Nate Silver now after he broke down the latest ABC poll where Biden is leading by 17 points.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Trump is madly tweeting at Nate Silver now after he broke down the latest ABC poll where Biden is leading by 17 points.
This new poll isn't very good for him either:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-opinion-poll-michigan-nevada-iowa/

I'm nervous as shit about that Michigan senate race. Steve Bannon's pet Uncle Tom is running pretty competitively.

[baseline bum]

Like I said. If he wins this senate race, he'll be running for president sooner than you think.

1315245764524879874

Lady G probably helped him when he said black people can only go places in South Carolina if they're conservative :lmao

If he can win the senate in South Carolina he looks a lot stronger than anyone else on the Democrats' bench, including Harris.

[Reck]

1315298859103457280

:lmao

Chris has some company.

[gambit1990]

it's really too bad charles booker didn't win in kentucky. he rose just a little too late.

but kentucky is pretty white so odds would've still been against him.

he would've raised even more money than harrison tbh.

[Spurminator]

it's really too bad charles booker didn't win in kentucky. he rose just a little too late.

but kentucky is pretty white so odds would've still been against him.

he would've raised even more money than harrison tbh.

Probably would have been wasted donations regardless, just like for McGrath. I did see that McGrath cut off her fundraising ads because they have more than they need and they want to funnel donations to other candidates.

[RandomGuy]

This new poll isn't very good for him either:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-opinion-poll-michigan-nevada-iowa/

I'm nervous as shit about that Michigan senate race. Steve Bannon's pet Uncle Tom is running pretty competitively.

I think there will be no small amount of blowback from the plot to kidnap the governor. Be interesting to see if that is correct.

[RandomGuy]

Seems like a clear trend.

Trump saying he won't do a stimulus before the election (even if he predictably changed it when the market predictably tanked) admits that the lack of a stimulus is entirely his fault.

Gutting Social Security/Medicare for an encore with the payroll tax thing...

Farcical.

Started at 73% a a few months ago.

Now stands at 86%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[gambit1990]

i don't see her winning but

https://www.c-span.org/video/?476816-1/kentucky-us-senate-debate

[Will Hunting]

Sorry but some of McConnell's debate one liners are fucking hilarious :lmao

"I think her whole campaign is that she was a marine and that she's a mom"

[Reck]

Sorry but some of McConnell's debate one liners are fucking hilarious :lmao

"I think her whole campaign is that she was a marine and that she's a mom"

Republicans can get away with this stuff.

A democrat making fun of a republican who served in the military is sacrilegious stuff but not the other way around.

[Will Hunting]

Republicans can get away with this stuff.

A democrat making fun of a republican who served in the military is sacrilegious stuff but not the other way around.
McGrath saying she's a marine in every other sentence is pretty insufferable if we're being honest. She's an easy target.

[GB20]

Mitch McConnell didn’t offer any visions or solutions in that debate.

[Will Hunting]

Mitch McConnell didn’t offer any visions or solutions in that debate.
It would be a much tougher race with Charles Booker against him. His debate performance was weak, McGrath was just equally weak.

[boutons_deux]

Originally Posted by RandomGuy (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10288175#post10288175)
Trump saying he won't do a stimulus before the election


Trash CANNOT do a stimulus, even if he wanted one.

All he can do is sign an Act passed by Congress, and there McConnell is much powerful than Trash

McConnell knows the Repugs have lost, a big stimulus now is TOO late to help Repugs' elections, so he's intent on keeping the Real Economy a disaster to be handed to Biden and the Dems.

And if McConnell keeps the Senate, he will continue to block stimulus that Dems have passed, eg, HEROES act, and blame the bad economy on the Dems, like was strategy against Obama.

He simply doesn't care about suicide, depressions, evictions, homelessness, 10Ms of lost jobs, terminated companies, and obviously the rest of the Senate Repugs support whatever McConnell does.

[Reck]

1315796900809973761 (https://twitter.com/kelsientaggart/status/1315796900809973761?s=21)

What is going on here? Is Mitch being cast as the next palpatine? What a creepy laugh.

[Will Hunting]

He’s got a stiff personality and no campaign message beyond “I’m majority leader so I get a disproportionate amount of gubbamint help for Kentucky” while his approval rating in Kentucky is below 40%. This would be a competitive race if the Dem candidate wasn’t so fucking shitty.

[Reck]

He’s got a stiff personality and no campaign message beyond “I’m majority leader so I get a disproportionate amount of gubbamint help for Kentucky” while his approval rating in Kentucky is below 40%. This would be a competitive race if the Dem candidate wasn’t so fucking shitty.

They both lose by 10+. Too many goat fuckers and welfare queens in Kentucky to make it an interesting race.

This race was too hyped for nothing.

[Will Hunting]

They both lose by 10+. Too many goat fuckers and welfare queens in Kentucky to make it an interesting race.

This race was too hyped for nothing.
I'm not saying Booker was the right candidate or anything (would have def been better than McGrath tho), but not sure why it's so hard to find a Kentucky version of Joe Manchin (i.e., a whore for the coal mining industry who caucuses with the Democrats).

[Trainwreck2100]

1315796900809973761 (https://twitter.com/kelsientaggart/status/1315796900809973761?s=21)

What is going on here? Is Mitch being cast as the next palpatine? What a creepy laugh.

that's a man right?

[baseline bum]

that's a man right?

No, it's a turtle

[Trainwreck2100]

No, it's a turtle

yeah but it's a guy and a turtle

[Will Hunting]

Why is McGrath dressed like a dude? She already has a natural masculine look, but she dressed like a dude for the debate.

(I personally don’t care about a candidate’s appearance, but women who look ugly do worse than ones who aren’t)

[RandomGuy]

:lmao Trump is madly tweeting at Nate Silver now after he broke down the latest ABC poll where Biden is leading by 17 points.

Have to take newer polls with a bit of a skew, since there is the prevailing impression that Trump voters have stopped talking to pollsters.

[RandomGuy]

Mitch McConnell didn’t offer any visions or solutions in that debate.

Republican party in a nutshell, tbh.

[Will Hunting]

Part of me wishes the election were happening now, but it seems like these senate races just keep getting closer and closer so another few weeks is a good thing.

1315989156435316736

[RandomGuy]

Part of me wishes the election were happening now, but it seems like these senate races just keep getting closer and closer so another few weeks is a good thing.

1315989156435316736

If Cornyn loses, ... wow. Probably won't, but still... wow.

[Will Hunting]

If Cornyn loses, ... wow. Probably won't, but still... wow.
I disagree with the Cornyn rank but not the other two. The Intercept just unearthed a lot of shit on Sullivan that Gross is already using, and the Georgia special election is going to be a runoff of Warnock vs. Loeffler. Abrams will bust her ass to drive turnout for a special election in Georgia, while Loeffler is an unelected rich Wall Street extremist who rubs a lot of moderate voters the wrong way.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Lady G can't even stop himself from complaining about Harrison's fundraising during a confirmation hearing

1316045347941163015

[RandomGuy]

Part of me wishes the election were happening now, but it seems like these senate races just keep getting closer and closer so another few weeks is a good thing.

1315989156435316736

Voted today. Got a free disposable paper stylus. Keeping that. What a souvenir.

[Reck]

Voted today. Got a free disposable paper stylus. Keeping that. What a souvenir.

TSA wants to know if you attended a Biden rally first though?

[RandomGuy]

TSA wants to know if you attended a Biden rally first though?

???

No, why? Wouldn't go even if they had one. Seems like a dumb thing to get ones dicks up about.

Plenty of people at site. I went midday and ballot box reported my vote was 104th cast. one of hte smaller stations in Hays county. Line wasn't too long but was really long first thing in the morning.

[Reck]

???

No, why? Wouldn't go even if they had one. Seems like a dumb thing to get ones dicks up about.

Plenty of people at site. I went midday and ballot box reported my vote was 104th cast. one of hte smaller stations in Hays county. Line wasn't too long but was really long first thing in the morning.

I know. I was mockingly referring to this post by him.

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=278170&page=29&p=10294545&viewfull=1#post10294545

[baseline bum]

Voted today. Got a free disposable paper stylus. Keeping that. What a souvenir.

Ugh no way I'd vote today. Drove by my polling spot on the way to get groceries and the wait looked like it would be three+ hours.

[Reck]

Ugh no way I'd vote today. Drove by my polling spot on the way to get groceries and the wait looked like it would be three+ hours.

:lol you will have to wait 10 hours on election day.

3 Hours is nothing compared to the stories already about long lines.

[baseline bum]

:lol you will have to wait 10 hours on election day.

3 Hours is nothing compared to the stories already about long lines.

It's the first day of early voting in Texas. I'll vote later this week or early next week. No way in hell I'd want to vote on November 3rd.

[ElNono]

It's the first day of early voting in Texas. I'll vote later this week or early next week. No way in hell I'd want to vote on November 3rd.

Let me hook you up with a Soros buddy, he'll send you mail-in ballots for 10-12 states, tbh... vote from home...

[baseline bum]

Let me hook you up with a Soros buddy, he'll send you mail-in ballots for 10-12 states, tbh... vote from home...

Already did but if you have more. Shit I cast thousands of votes in 1986 to get Alvin Robertson in the All-Star starting lineup since the ballots were punchcards and you could do 10-20 at a time. :lol

https://i.imgur.com/tgqzAGj.jpg

[ElNono]

Already did but if you have more. Shit I cast thousands of votes in 1986 to get Alvin Robertson in the All-Star starting lineup since the ballots were punchcards and you could do 10-20 at a time. :lol

https://i.imgur.com/tgqzAGj.jpg

mein negger

[baseline bum]

mein negger

It's hilarious... this was the ballot:

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/IqcAAOSwz5peqGig/s-l1600.jpg

Then in 1987 the NBA got wise and switched to scratch off ballot.

[ElNono]

It's hilarious... this was the ballot:

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/IqcAAOSwz5peqGig/s-l1600.jpg

Then in 1987 the NBA got wise and switched to scratch off ballot.

Hard to believe we even farmed out this kind of cheating to China, tbh

[RandomGuy]

It's the first day of early voting in Texas. I'll vote later this week or early next week. No way in hell I'd want to vote on November 3rd.

I have a feeling errybody is voting early this year.

[baseline bum]

I have a feeling errybody is voting early this year.

Yeah I voted first day of early voting in 2016 too and it was maybe a 20-25 minute wait. 2018 just in and out in early voting.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

87% They are putting Georgia in the blue column.

Georgia.

[RandomGuy]

Texas is projected 51-48 for Don the Con.

3%

[rmt]

I have a feeling errybody is voting early this year.

Shouldn't wait because if one catches covid, one can't vote in person.

[DMC]

I have a feeling errybody is voting early this year.

Calling pgardn this is your cue to say something you think is pithy..

[Reck]

1316548847712182272 (https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1316548847712182272?s=21)

Holy shit. Biden should donate 20 million to Trump’s broke campaign out of pity. :lol