2020 blue wave

[GB20]

1316548847712182272 (https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1316548847712182272?s=21)

Holy shit. Biden should donate 20 million to Trump’s broke campaign out of pity. :lol
Lindsey Graham will be knocking his door pretty soon.

[Will Hunting]

:lol potential killshot in the Iowa Senate debate tonight:

1316914211574976512

[Reck]

:lol potential killshot in the Iowa Senate debate tonight:

1316914211574976512

Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own constituencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.

[Will Hunting]

Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own constituencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.
Lets ask the resident Iowan, Bogie are voters going to care about this or not? This seems like the petty gotcha question Iowa farmers will actually care about.

The fact Ernst didn't know it isn't what's so bad, it's that she then pretended she heard corn and not soybeans, even though the answer she gave would have also been wrong with respect to corn.

Chuck Grassley the senile farmer would probably know both of these though :lol

[RandomGuy]

:lol potential killshot in the Iowa Senate debate tonight:

1316914211574976512

Ok, one was prepared, the other wasn't. Question was fair to both. I can hear it now: "liberal media" :cry

[RandomGuy]

Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own constituencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.

Farmers are smarter than you think they are. It was a bit of a gotcha question.

[Will Hunting]

Farmers are smarter than you think they are. It was a bit of a gotcha question.
Gotcha question or not, Greenfield knew the answer down to the penny and was able to then launch into a stump about how Iowa farmers are struggling. Ernst looked like a politician who’s spent too much time in DC and isn’t in the weeds on what her constituents are going through.

Greenfield already had momentum on Ernst too. It’s been months since the last poll where Ernst was winning and there have been several recent polls where Greenfield’s lead was outside the MOE, last night was not good for her.

[RandomGuy]

Gotcha question or not, Greenfield knew the answer down to the penny and was able to then launch into a stump about how Iowa farmers are struggling. Ernst looked like a politician who’s spent too much time in DC and isn’t in the weeds on what her constituents are going through.

Greenfield already had momentum on Ernst too. It’s been months since the last poll where Ernst was winning and there have been several recent polls where Greenfield’s lead was outside the MOE, last night was not good for her.

Yup. Iowans watch stuff like that, and I have little doubt it moved the needle if the rest of it went similarly. (mom was from iowa, so I knew a few Iowans here and there)

[Bogie]

Lets ask the resident Iowan, Bogie (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=64208) are voters going to care about this or not? This seems like the petty gotcha question Iowa farmers will actually care about.

The fact Ernst didn't know it isn't what's so bad, it's that she then pretended she heard corn and not soybeans, even though the answer she gave would have also been wrong with respect to corn.

Chuck Grassley the senile farmer would probably know both of these though :lol


realistically, all farmers are aware of what prices are. You can ask a farmer what crops are selling for, any day of the year, they’ll be able to tell you.

Ernst isn’t popular amongst the sect for her knowledge. But every exchange like that one emphasizes she’s not the hog castrating Iowa farm girl she’s claimed to be. I actually think she really may be in trouble now, political polling in a state like Iowa is never an exact science, because the only way the Dems Succeed is if the metropolitan areas show up strong.

and, holy shit the moderator was Ron Steele, that dude came to my kindergarten class to talk about being a news reporter.

[Will Hunting]

realistically, all farmers are aware of what prices are. You can ask a farmer what crops are selling for, any day of the year, they’ll be able to tell you.

Ernst isn’t popular amongst the sect for her knowledge. But every exchange like that one emphasizes she’s not the hog castrating Iowa farm girl she’s claimed to be. I actually think she really may be in trouble now, political polling in a state like Iowa is never an exact science, because the only way the Dems Succeed is if the metropolitan areas show up strong.

and, holy shit the moderator was Ron Steele, that dude came to my kindergarten class to talk about being a news reporter.
IA has pretty detailed early voting data and so far, it's been Dems with the enthusiasm. They're returning mail-in ballots at a much faster pace and have already cast 100k+ more votes than registered Republicans (which is a lot in Iowa).

The Republican strongholds in Western Iowa going through a massive COVID outbreak right now also can't be good for Ernst. The retarded conspiracy theory she peddled about inflated COVID numbers is biting her in the ass.

[Bogie]

IA has pretty detailed early voting data and so far, it's been Dems with the enthusiasm. They're returning mail-in ballots at a much faster pace and have already cast 100k+ more votes than registered Republicans (which is a lot in Iowa).

The Republican strongholds in Western Iowa going through a massive COVID outbreak right now also can't be good for Ernst. The retarded conspiracy theory she peddled about inflated COVID numbers is biting her in the ass.

Iowa is always a weird state, electorally. Congressional races are completely dependent on metro turnout. But state and local races are people voting for friends.

the r’s hold all 3 branches at the state level, long time supreme Court justices were voted out because they affirmed the state repeal of DOMA.

yet it was one of like 10 states Michael Dukakis won.

The primary reasoning for any non farmer/ag business person to live there is pretty slim at this point. It’s a good place if you hunt, with the seasons. Des Moines is a decent town to live in, but you gotta make better than decent coin to live well.

but they have Bible thumped any and all advantages away in terms of quality education, and so the population of achievers has dwindled. Will be interesting to see what the demographic looks like in another 10 years, it’s not trending well now.

[Reck]

Blue wave? Forget that, what about a red wave?

1317081709574311942 (https://twitter.com/blakelinton/status/1317081709574311942?s=21)

Trumpers are delusional by default but this is something else entirely.

[Spurminator]

Yep, Trump winning New York is some real galaxy brain stuff.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Susan Qollins

:lmao the article editor using a picture of her eating pizza

1317134894082871298

[ElNono]

Blue wave? Forget that, what about a red wave?

1317081709574311942 (https://twitter.com/blakelinton/status/1317081709574311942?s=21)

Trumpers are delusional by default but this is something else entirely.

Nice of him to be doing this for the past 108 years. I bet it was a bitch to run that model with computers from the 1910's... oh wait.

[Reck]

:lmao Susan Qollins

:lmao the article editor using a picture of her eating pizza

1317134894082871298

Looks like another happy le merchant. :lol I’m starting to think these elite politicians are aware of the meme and are enacting it in real life.

[RandomGuy]

Blue wave? Forget that, what about a red wave?

1317081709574311942 (https://twitter.com/blakelinton/status/1317081709574311942?s=21)

Trumpers are delusional by default but this is something else entirely.

Wow. Just wow. Hopefully this induces some Trumpers to think they don't have to go vote.

:lol NY.

That should tell you right there there is something wrong with the model.

[Bogie]

Blue wave? Forget that, what about a red wave?

1317081709574311942 (https://twitter.com/blakelinton/status/1317081709574311942?s=21)

Trumpers are delusional by default but this is something else entirely.


i saw this earlier. If you have the chance, read through the comments.

[RandomGuy]

My prediction is what I call “unconditional final.” It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in…. Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win. It seems crazy. But it’s not.
https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth-trump-win-november/

Wonder what he is going to say when his model is absolutely wrong.

Dude's model depends on so few variables as to be laughable, IMO. Simplifying can be useful in some cases, but this... is comically bad.

[TSA]

https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth-trump-win-november/

Wonder what he is going to say when his model is absolutely wrong.

Dude's model depends on so few variables as to be laughable, IMO. Simplifying can be useful in some cases, but this... is comically bad.

"The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”

[Spurminator]

"The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”

He has New York going to Trump.

You guys are so gullible. :lol

(Oh wait, you're just trolling, right?)

[ElNono]

"The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”

So the model has technically actually been used on the last 6 elections, and he whiffed one already. Ok, not a great model.

[RandomGuy]

"The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”

(shrugs) Different models produce different results. Outlier models are just that for a reason, albeit still useful for aggregate predictions.

This is an outlier.

[spurraider21]

i saw this earlier. If you have the chance, read through the comments.
:lol

https://i.gyazo.com/9835e9d4e52e1e1c75374e1a1198bcc7.png

[spurraider21]

So the model has technically actually been used on the last 6 elections, and he whiffed one already. Ok, not a great model.
or they applied the model retroactively with polling/primary data and got correct results on previous elections

[Will Hunting]

"The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”
Fraudulent investment managers do this all the time. They look back at historical data and cherrypick events that, if weighed correctly in a model, would have accurately predicted a series of past results that are already known, then they claim to have unearthed the secret to investing while failing to tell you all they did was jerry-rig a model to make it so the model accurately "predicts" past results.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/model-predicted-5-last-6-presidential-elections-says-trump-will-win-2020

He cited the fact Trump got 85% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary as a key indicator, as if the fact an incumbent without any material primary opposition getting 80+% of the vote is some meaningful indicator. Do you not see the flaw in that? His model is literally always going to project an incumbent wins unless the incumbent faces primary competition which never happens.

Do you actually think Trump is going to win NY? Yes or no.

[RandomGuy]

Fraudulent investment managers do this all the time. They look back at historical data and cherrypick events that, if weighed correctly in a model, would have accurately predicted a series of past results that are already known.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/model-predicted-5-last-6-presidential-elections-says-trump-will-win-2020

He cited the fact Trump got 85% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary as a key indicator, as if the fact an incumbent without any material primary opposition getting 80+% of the vote is some meaningful indicator. Do you not see the flaw in that? His model is literally always going to project an incumbent wins unless the incumbent faces primary competition which never happens.

Do you actually think Trump is going to win NY? Yes or no.

I was going to point this exact thing out, but decided to let it be. It has a serious case of what I call the SALT fallacy. (same as last time)

Bear in mind TSA is simply trolling. Best not to spend too much time on TSA B.S. IMO. LOL.

[Reck]

Lol TSA thinks that map is realistic.

Cult. That is all.

[Will Hunting]

So the model has technically actually been used on the last 6 elections, and he whiffed one already. Ok, not a great model.
The model is based off how candidates perform in "early primaries (i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire) and that's it, so when an incumbent wins early primaries in a landslide because he has no primary competition, this retard's model uses that as a key indicator said incumbent will get re-elected regardless of anything else.

3 of those 6 elections were an incumbent running with no primary competition (1996, 2004, 2012). Of the other 3 elections, he got one right because the winner of the Dem nomination performed horribly in the early primary states, which happened to be an indicator, but he got the other 2 wrong (2000 & 2008). He admits he got 2000 wrong but he's also lying about his model in the 2008 race. He predicted Shillary would "narrowly defeat" John McCain in a general election while McCain would end up in a "virtual tie" with Obama if Obama was the candidate. It was the easiest election in recent memory to predict and he has no plausible argument that he got it right but claims he did :lol
http://primarymodel.com/2008

All he's done is find a variable that happens to align with some past election results but he's also lying about how accurate his model was for the last 6 elections. MAGAtards are so fucking gullible.

[ElNono]

or they applied the model retroactively with polling/primary data and got correct results on previous elections

I'm sure they tried to do that. However, who checked on the reliability of that data?

[RandomGuy]

Lol TSA thinks that map is realistic.

Cult. That is all.

He doesn't. If he really thought so, he would come out and say it directly.

He is, though, "sticking it to the libs", which is why he simply passed on a quote.

Disingenuous to the last.

[TSA]

Fraudulent investment managers do this all the time. They look back at historical data and cherrypick events that, if weighed correctly in a model, would have accurately predicted a series of past results that are already known, then they claim to have unearthed the secret to investing while failing to tell you all they did was jerry-rig a model to make it so the model accurately "predicts" past results.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/model-predicted-5-last-6-presidential-elections-says-trump-will-win-2020

He cited the fact Trump got 85% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary as a key indicator, as if the fact an incumbent without any material primary opposition getting 80+% of the vote is some meaningful indicator. Do you not see the flaw in that? His model is literally always going to project an incumbent wins unless the incumbent faces primary competition which never happens.

Do you actually think Trump is going to win NY? Yes or no.

PA bakery claims cookie sales have predicted past presidential elections — and here's how it looks for 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/pennsylvania-bakery-cookie-sales-predicted-presidential-elections.amp?__twitter_impression=true

[RandomGuy]

PA bakery claims cookie sales have predicted past presidential elections — and here's how it looks for 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/pennsylvania-bakery-cookie-sales-predicted-presidential-elections.amp?__twitter_impression=true

"_twitter_impression=true"

You must go into withdrawal symptoms when the network goes down. (reaches for the Norcan, just in case)

[ElNono]

PA bakery claims cookie sales have predicted past presidential elections — and here's how it looks for 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/pennsylvania-bakery-cookie-sales-predicted-presidential-elections.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Cookies look good, tbh

[Trainwreck2100]

Blue wave? Forget that, what about a red wave?

1317081709574311942 (https://twitter.com/blakelinton/status/1317081709574311942?s=21)

Trumpers are delusional by default but this is something else entirely.

:lol making a model on primaries when 1 side doesn't have a primary because he's an incumbent

[RandomGuy]

:lol making a model on primaries when 1 side doesn't have a primary because he's an incumbent

It really is that dumb.

Almost as dumb as this one:

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=280865&page=15&p=10079227&viewfull=1#post10079227

[Will Hunting]

Seriously, are GOP senators trying to lose? Trump has made everyone in his party a racist dumbass :lmao

1317231042089111552

[Reck]

Seriously, are GOP senators trying to lose? Trump has made everyone in his party a racist dumbass :lmao

1317231042089111552

Does he think she's hispanic? Mala mala makes zero sense unless you apply some spanish into it which then would translate into "bad."


Dumb fucks. :lol

[Will Hunting]

Does he think she's hispanic? Mala mala makes zero sense unless you apply some spanish into it which then would translate into "bad."


Dumb fucks. :lol
He serves on the same budget committee as she does. He clearly knows her name but he got caught up in the moment and let some racism slip out :lol

[Reck]

Yooooooo Will Hunting this is a little worse than the clip you posted.


https://youtu.be/aFXohHi6Tmk

This clip is way longer and really shows how badly she butchered the question. This might actually cost her. :lol

[gambit1990]

New poll shows Jaime Harrison up by 2%
https://wpde.com/news/local/new-poll-shows-jaime-harrison-up-by-210-17-2020

[ChumpDumper]

Yooooooo Will Hunting this is a little worse than the clip you posted.


https://youtu.be/aFXohHi6Tmk

This clip is way longer and really shows how badly she butchered the question. This might actually cost her. :lol

:lol She just wouldn't let it go and tried to gaslight the moderator, her challenger and the viewing public that NO I WAS ASKED ABOUT CORN AND GOT IT RIGHT!

[Will Hunting]

I originally paid attention to this race just because I think Joni Ernst is a cunt and it was a winnable race, but Greenfield has actually been a phenomenal candidate so far.

She's done everything imaginable to stomp on Ernst's throat since that debate gaff :lol

1317493178644287488

[Trainwreck2100]

Yooooooo Will Hunting this is a little worse than the clip you posted.


https://youtu.be/aFXohHi6Tmk

This clip is way longer and really shows how badly she butchered the question. This might actually cost her. :lol

i really wish you'd stop sharing that guy's videos.

[tholdren]

I was going to point this exact thing out, but decided to let it be. It has a serious case of what I call the SALT fallacy. (same as last time)

Bear in mind TSA is simply trolling. Best not to spend too much time on TSA B.S. IMO. LOL.

WrongdomGuy so intimidated by trump. Sad for a supposed grown man

[spurraider21]

i really wish you'd stop sharing that guy's videos.
I just watch until he starts talking

[tholdren]

WrongdomGuy so intimidated by trump. Sad for a supposed grown man

[ElNono]

i really wish you'd stop sharing that guy's videos.

:lol

[Spurminator]

Fake news

[Will Hunting]

That might be fake news.

[Reck]

Damn, that's nice.

Theresa Greenfield might help Biden in Iowa much like Kelly is doing in Arizona.

I knew from watching that extended clip this was bad news for the biker chick. :lol

[Spurminator]

That might be fake news.

Looks that way. Deleted.

[RandomGuy]

WrongdomGuy so intimidated by trump. Sad for a supposed grown man

:rollin

No. I am not intimidated by uninformed subpar intellects. Sad that a supposed grown man thinks junior-high school smack talk works on actual grown men.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/


Biden is favored to win the election
We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.

88% chance, with the most likely single outcome being a crushing 420-110 loss [for Trump]. That probably won't happen, but that little bump there represents your worst-case scenario.

Ima have a nice cup of wake-the-fuck-up coffee using you snowflakes' tears in another month.

[spurraider21]

:rollin

No. I am not intimidated by uninformed subpar intellects. Sad that a supposed grown man thinks junior-high school smack talk works on actual grown men.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/



88% chance, with the most likely single outcome being a crushing 420-110 loss. That probably won't happen, but that little bump there represents your worst-case scenario.

Ima have a nice cup of wake-the-fuck-up coffee using you snowflakes' tears in another month.
huh?

[RandomGuy]

huh?

the most likely single outcome being a crushing 420-110 loss [for Trump]

If you look at the graph, the single highest peak of the distribution graph is that result.

[baseline bum]

huh?

It looks like madness in Silver's model, but this is what RG is talking about.

https://i.ibb.co/HXy4D3v/538.png

[Splits]

if McConnel survives he retires by 2022 for "health" reasons. he is done. rest in hell you fuckface cunt

[spurraider21]

ah gotcha. that seems bizarre. i was going by their forecast which currently has 347-191

https://i.gyazo.com/1164badeb1f7d5af322f73db1f453c90.png


and then when i just tallied all the states as they currently have projected in their "winding path" graphic the numbers were pretty similar to that

[Reck]

huh?

Randomguy gets carried away some times.

320-330 electoral votes, tops. (With every key battleground states going to Biden)

[RandomGuy]

I looks like madness in Silver's model, but this is what RG is talking about.

https://i.ibb.co/HXy4D3v/538.png

You can get there by flipping every weakly red state blue, which is why I think the model favors it.

It would look something like this:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/pGkDd.png

Odds are that it will almost certainly not be that wide of a landslide.

But there is a fair, if remote, chance at that. Commentary on how thin the margins are more than anything else.

[RandomGuy]

Randomguy gets carried away some times.

320-330 electoral votes, tops. (With every key battleground states going to Biden)

Not in this case. Just remarking on a notable bump on a graph, and it's interesting implications. :D

[Splits]

the story of the election is going to be how trump barely managed to get 40% of the vote, how the polls overcompensated from 2016 and they have to re-evaluate for the next one. overwhelming landslide

[RandomGuy]

ah gotcha. that seems bizarre. i was going by their forecast which currently has 347-191

https://i.gyazo.com/1164badeb1f7d5af322f73db1f453c90.png


and then when i just tallied all the states as they currently have projected in their "winding path" graphic the numbers were pretty similar to that

Seems about right. Splits the tossups about down the middle.

[RandomGuy]

if McConnel survives he retires by 2022 for "health" reasons. he is done. rest in hell you fuckface cunt

I think "spending time with family" is going to be standard for Repubican politician resumes in the coming year.

[Will Hunting]

the story of the election is going to be how trump barely managed to get 40% of the vote, how the polls overcompensated from 2016 and they have to re-evaluate for the next one. overwhelming landslide
I've been saying for a while that the likelihood of polls overcompensating for 2016 is higher than the polls still being as fucked up as they were in 2016.

[Will Hunting]

Need to drag COVID Barrett's confirmation out as long as possible so these 4-4 splits on election issues can keep happening

1318328320891752451

[Will Hunting]

Watching Jon Ossoff do the rounds the last few days, he's another really talented guy who has president potential if he manages to beat Purdue.

[Reck]

Watching Jon Ossoff do the rounds the last few days, he's another really talented guy who has president potential if he manages to beat Purdue.

Looks much better this time. Obviously worked on looking more like a man instead of the dweeb from 2018.

[Will Hunting]

Looks that way. Deleted.
:lol that might have been fake news, but this isn't

1318609951405887488

:lmao Joni Ernst running on the tea party platform of making millennials pay for boomer entitlements and then gutting it for millennials

[SnakeBoy]

Biden eyes GOP candidates for Cabinet slots
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/biden-transition-republican-cabinet-429972

Among the names being floated for possible Biden Cabinet posts are Meg Whitman, the CEO of Quibi and former CEO of eBay, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both of whom spoke at August’s Democratic National Convention. Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) have also been mentioned, as has former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Penn.), who resigned from Congress in 2018 and became a lobbyist.

:lol

[Reck]

Biden eyes GOP candidates for Cabinet slots
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/biden-transition-republican-cabinet-429972

Among the names being floated for possible Biden Cabinet posts are Meg Whitman, the CEO of Quibi and former CEO of eBay, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both of whom spoke at August’s Democratic National Convention. Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) have also been mentioned, as has former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Penn.), who resigned from Congress in 2018 and became a lobbyist.

:lol

Jesus fuck. lol

[SnakeBoy]

:lmao Joni Ernst running on the tea party platform of making millennials pay for boomer entitlements and then gutting it for millennials

She should be running on locking down the economy to protect boomers

[Will Hunting]

She should be running on locking down the economy to protect boomers
You mean like what Trump did in March after ignoring COVID for 2 months?

[Reck]

NYT with the goods for their final polling of 2020.

1318493469300711430

Trump doesn't lead on any category. Even the economy. :lol

[SnakeBoy]

NYT with the goods for their final polling of 2020.

1318493469300711430

Trump doesn't lead on any category. Even the economy. :lol

Biden at 50% nationally doesn't sound that great tbh

[spurraider21]

Biden eyes GOP candidates for Cabinet slots
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/biden-transition-republican-cabinet-429972

Among the names being floated for possible Biden Cabinet posts are Meg Whitman, the CEO of Quibi and former CEO of eBay, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both of whom spoke at August’s Democratic National Convention. Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) have also been mentioned, as has former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Penn.), who resigned from Congress in 2018 and became a lobbyist.

:lol
democrats still hung up on "civility" and "reaching across the aisle" thinking its going to earn them any goodwill with the lunatics calling biden a marxist :lmao

[spurraider21]

Biden at 50% nationally doesn't sound that great tbh
neither does 41% :lol

[Will Hunting]

Nevermind my math is wrong

[baseline bum]

democrats still hung up on "civility" and "reaching across the aisle" thinking its going to earn them any goodwill with the lunatics calling biden a marxist :lmao

I'm hopeful this is just Biden saying this shit because low information voters seem to love hearing about bipartisanship. But not too hopeful since it's fucking Joe Biden.

[Reck]

From that same polling

1318642560328519685

:lol Tied in Georgia.

[Spurminator]

Biden at 50% nationally doesn't sound that great tbh

Based on RCP history:

Obama hit 50% once the year he beat McCain
Obama never hit 50% the year he beat Romney
Neither Trump nor Clinton hit 50% in 2016

[ChumpDumper]

Based on RCP history:

Obama hit 50% once the year he beat McCain
Obama never hit 50% the year he beat Romney
Neither Trump nor Clinton hit 50% in 2016Sounds great tbh.

[Splits]

I'm hopeful this is just Biden saying this shit because low information voters seem to love hearing about bipartisanship. But not too hopeful since it's fucking Joe Biden.

No. Guaranteed the DoD will be led by a Republican and probably bring in Comey to run DoJ.

Biden is a fossil. I'm convinced he told Black President to do all this reach across the aisle bullshit to let them water down all legislation only to vote against it.

Biden is going to be a disaster if you are hoping for tooth-for-a-tooth let's take advantage of the precedent Turtle set. You're in denial if you think he won't roll out his own version of "look forward not backwards"

[Will Hunting]

In 1980 Reagan beat Carter 50.7% to 41.0%. Most people don’t exactly consider that a close election :lol

[SnakeBoy]

I'm hopeful this is just Biden saying this shit because low information voters seem to love hearing about bipartisanship. But not too hopeful since it's fucking Joe Biden.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaN4sboc7E8&feature=emb_logo

[Will Hunting]

I’ve resigned myself to the fact Biden is going full his national security/military advisor positions with neocons who want to continue wasting money on stupid shit. I’m holding out a little hope the rest of his administration isn’t so offensively centrist.

[Spurminator]

No. Guaranteed the DoD will be led by a Republican and probably bring in Comey to run DoJ.

Biden is a fossil. I'm convinced he told Black President to do all this reach across the aisle bullshit to let them water down all legislation only to vote against it.

Biden is going to be a disaster if you are hoping for tooth-for-a-tooth let's take advantage of the precedent Turtle set. You're in denial if you think he won't roll out his own version of "look forward not backwards"

He could always die.

[RandomGuy]

democrats still hung up on "civility" and "reaching across the aisle" thinking its going to earn them any goodwill with the lunatics calling biden a marxist :lmao

Republican party stabbed bipartisanship repeatedly, stomped on the body and buried it behind the woodshed about 2008 or so.

[RandomGuy]

No. Guaranteed the DoD will be led by a Republican and probably bring in Comey to run DoJ.

Biden is a fossil. I'm convinced he told Black President to do all this reach across the aisle bullshit to let them water down all legislation only to vote against it.

Biden is going to be a disaster if you are hoping for tooth-for-a-tooth let's take advantage of the precedent Turtle set. You're in denial if you think he won't roll out his own version of "look forward not backwards"

Eyup.

Another shitty center-right candidate doing center-right bullshit. Harris isn't much better.

Need to move the Overton window, and they are not the people who will do that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

[spurraider21]

Eyup.

Another shitty center-right candidate doing center-right bullshit. Harris isn't much better.

Need to move the Overton window, and they are not the people who will do that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window
would be a lot easier to get concessions out of biden than it would with trump, though

[Will Hunting]

It'll be half-hearted and incomplete, but Biden will get SOME form of climate change legislation done if he has senate control. It's too big a part of his platform and even the oligarchs making the big donations to his campaign want climate change reform.

With Trump it's a virtual certainty climate change is ignored for another 4 years.

Centrist Democrat vs. Republican is basically 21st century oligarchs vs. 20th century oligarchs, and even though they're shitty and horrible people, I'll take Elon Musk and Bill Gates over Charles Koch and Shelden Adelson.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/biden-looking-to-longtime-aide-ron-klain-for-chief-of-staff

This is at least encouraging. Ron Klain was my preferred Chief of Staff choice for Biden (and he had the benefit of previously being Biden's Chief of Staff). He has progressive roots as Ed Markey's former legislative director and will be the sharpest choice in terms of court appointments and making sure Biden doesn't take the judiciary for granted the way Obama did.

At the least, Klain will be infinitely better as CoS than Rahm Emanuel was for Obama.

[spurraider21]

:lol

1318357515680116737

[Will Hunting]

Greenfield now up 5 on Ernst in latest poll, and since August 1 Greenfield's chances on 538 have gone from 46% to 59%. She has all the momentum and another bomb dropped on Ernst today.

Cunningham OTOH has a new FEC investigation that looks like bullshit but it'll cost him votes, and his lead against Tillis was already slipping.

Stacey Abrams grassroots org needs to planning for a January run-off in Georgia - the special election is definitely going to a runoff and I think the Purdue/Ossoff race will as well.

[Spurtacular]

NYT with the goods for their final polling of 2020.

1318493469300711430

Trump doesn't lead on any category. Even the economy. :lol

But you're not betting on those numbers cos you know they're faked.

[Reck]

Sure, he said that in the first debate.

[Reck]

But you're not betting on those numbers cos you know they're faked.

You’re right. Biden is not winning the popular vote by 9 or 10 points.

He will though win the necessary states to carry over the 270 he needs.

[Will Hunting]

https://twitter.com/yesyoureracist/status/1318578150431916032?s=21

:lmao
I get the ACB comments (those were from awhile back too, before she refused to answer any questions in committee hearings). He's trying to stave off the evangelical rage that happened in 2018 after they went after Kavanaugh, and it's even more fragile when ACB is a woman.

Ron Klain is an infinitely better Chief of Staff than Rahm Emanuel, so I'm reserving judgment for the rest of his cabinet. If he picks Andrew Yang as his secretary of labor I'll be satisfied.

[Trainwreck2100]

https://twitter.com/yesyoureracist/status/1318565498708176897?s=21
Idiotic pay the Lincoln project hasn't been with Biden to get something from Biden they want their seats back at the Republican table and by being anti Trump they can jump to the front of the line

[Trainwreck2100]

Also are we sure yesyoureracist isn't a Russian? Feels russiany

[Spurtacular]

You’re right. Biden is not winning the popular vote by 9 or 10 points.

He will though win the necessary states to carry over the 270 he needs.

Doubtful

[Will Hunting]

Idiotic pay the Lincoln project hasn't been with Biden to get something from Biden they want their seats back at the Republican table and by being anti Trump they can jump to the front of the line
They Lincoln Project guys even said they'd be backing Bernie if he was the candidate simply because Bernie respects America and Trump doesn't. Whether or not that's actually true about them backing Bernie, it means Biden doesn't owe them shit.

My bigger concern is the waive of endorsements Biden has gotten from ex-military/national security officials. Biden has been completely silent on how neoconservative his foreign policy is going to be, and I'd be surprised if that wasn't by design.

[Reck]

I get the ACB comments (those were from awhile back too, before she refused to answer any questions in committee hearings). He's trying to stave off the evangelical rage that happened in 2018 after they went after Kavanaugh, and it's even more fragile when ACB is a woman.

Ron Klain is an infinitely better Chief of Staff than Rahm Emanuel, so I'm reserving judgment for the rest of his cabinet. If he picks Andrew Yang as his secretary of labor I'll be satisfied.

I’m not really content with that list full of republicans myself. But I’m also not going to make a big deal out of it just yet. Try winning the election first.

Ultra progressives are so short sighted and so quick on the draw.

[Reck]

Doubtful

He needs Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And then carry all other Hillary states.

All looks good.

[Will Hunting]

I’m not really content with that list full of republicans myself. But I’m also not going to make a big deal out of it just yet. Try winning the election first.

Ultra progressives are so short sighted and so quick on the draw.
I know Bernie is a pussy, but I don't think he'd be campaigning this aggressively for Biden if he thought Biden would be picking a cabinet of GOPers. He would just be giving Biden the same lukewarm campaign help he gave Killary in 2016.

Keep in mind, in 2013, the Republicans in the senate were filibustering all of Obama's cabinet appointments. They even filibustered Chuck Hagel (a lifelong Republican). The reason Harry Reid nuked the filibuster on cabinet appointments is because Obama legit wouldn't have had a cabinet if he didn't do that.

I point this out because in a scenario where Biden wins but the GOP holds the senate, he's going to need to have a lot of GOP cabinet appointments, because you can bet McConnell will fight tooth and nail against any left leaning cabinet pick. It makes sense that Biden is preparing for that.

[Trainwreck2100]

They Lincoln Project guys even said they'd be backing Bernie if he was the candidate simply because Bernie respects America and Trump doesn't. Whether or not that's actually true about them backing Bernie, it means Biden doesn't owe them shit.

My bigger concern is the waive of endorsements Biden has gotten from ex-military/national security officials. Biden has been completely silent on how neoconservative his foreign policy is going to be, and I'd be surprised if that wasn't by design.

He bombed an Iranian general on allied soil to make himself feel good, it's possible the ex military national security officials don't want anymore escalation and recognize how bat fuck crazy he is

[Will Hunting]

The Lincoln Project has a massive amount of money now, and you better believe in 2024 they will dump it all into efforts to get Hawley or Cotton elected.
I thought that but I'm not sure anymore. Hawley and Cotton are both Trump style populist conservatives, and the Lincoln Project guys are more GWB style pro-immigration/free market conservatives. They definitely plan to go back to the GOP at some point but they seem hellbent on burning this version of the GOP to the ground first. Steve Schmidt in particular.

The nevertrumpers who are going to go right back to the GOP in 2024 are guys like John Bolton who are aiming for a Biden win but a GOP senate majority. That way Biden is a lame duck and it's an easy path for the 2024 Republican.

[Trainwreck2100]

I thought that but I'm not sure anymore. Hawley and Cotton are both Trump style populist conservatives, and the Lincoln Project guys are more GWB style pro-immigration/free market conservatives. They definitely plan to go back to the GOP at some point but they seem hellbent on burning this version of the GOP to the ground first. Steve Schmidt in particular.

The nevertrumpers who are going to go right back to the GOP in 2024 are guys like John Bolton who are aiming for a Biden win but a GOP senate majority. That way Biden is a lame duck and it's an easy path for the 2024 Republican.
If it's Kamala in 2024, Republicans are the front runners

[Will Hunting]

If it's Kamala in 2024, Republicans are the front runners
My pick for 2024 is Andrew Yang, especially if Biden makes him secretary of labor.

[Will Hunting]

Hawley and Cotton have the IQ and savvy to appeal to the Trumptards while speaking in intelligent, coherent sentences to win over the NeverTrumpers.

The Lincoln Project is not in this to help the Democrats, the Dems are just useful idiots to them. Getting Trump out is all they need.
Hawley/Cotton won't want anything to do with the Lincoln Project the same way Trump didn't, that's why I think they might not go back home yet. They're not going to go back home for a presidential candidate who's not willing to give them a seat at the table.

Hawley/Cotton are smart but they're still extreme as fuck and ideology different from Rick Wilson/Steve Schmidt.

[Reck]

If it's Kamala in 2024, Republicans are the front runners

Meh

Hopefully if republicans lose the senate along with the presidency, they will be in rebuild mode for the next couple of cycles.

And while she wouldn’t exactly be the incumbent per se, we have already seen how much it helps being at the top of the ticket. This faggot Trump, as toxic as he is has somewhat of a small path to victory still.

[Will Hunting]

This is what I mean. The Lincoln Project is already talking shit about Hawley's inevitable "Trump, but smart!" run in 2024.

1318773096661225472

[Reck]

This is what I mean. The Lincoln Project is already talking shit about Hawley's inevitable "Trump, but smart!" run in 2024.

1318773096661225472

Guy looks like he’s 15.

Reminds me of the House of Cards Republican in season 4 I think. :lol

[Will Hunting]

Guy looks like he’s 15.

Reminds me of the House of Cards Republican in season 4 I think. :lol
He's the GOP's new chosen one ever since Tom Cotton wrote his authoritarian OpEd in the Times.

[rmt]

Some here should be careful what they wish for. Kaisch or Flake being talked about on the Cabinet? - lol. Conservatives might end up more pleased with a Biden presidency than the libs here :-)

[rmt]

And what will they bitch about when they voted him in - lol :-)

[Spurtacular]

He needs Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And then carry all other Hillary states.

All looks good.

You need to recheck your math.

Trump will win with any one of those three.

Oh, damn. Tranny going to go into a deep depression now. :lmao

:rollin

[Will Hunting]

Some here should be careful what they wish for. Kaisch or Flake being talked about on the Cabinet? - lol. Conservatives might end up more pleased with a Biden presidency than the libs here :-)
Obama had a cabinet full of centrists and conservatives but it didn't stop conservatives from hating him and calling him a communist.

[ElNono]

Some here should be careful what they wish for. Kaisch or Flake being talked about on the Cabinet? - lol. Conservatives might end up more pleased with a Biden presidency than the libs here :-)

As long as Trump doesn't ring...

[RandomGuy]

You’re right. Biden is not winning the popular vote by 9 or 10 points.

He will though win the necessary states to carry over the 270 he needs.

I think it will be about that margin. Too many polls converging on that range.

[Reck]

You need to recheck your math.

Trump will win with any one of those three.

Oh, damn. Tranny going to go into a deep depression now. :lmao

:rollin

Trump is on course to lose states he won last time. Red states.

[Spurtacular]

Trump is on course to lose states he won last time. Red states.

He won't lose any non rust belt states he won last time.

Someone better put you on suicide watch on election night. :lol

[rmt]

Obama had a cabinet full of centrists and conservatives but it didn't stop conservatives from hating him and calling him a communist.

Ahhh, but we didn't vote him in.

If Biden grows a spine and relies on his natural instincts, his presidency might not be all that bad. He's the old fashioned type who (like Lindsey Graham) would accept (and be vilified for) a kiss from the other side.

[Reck]

He won't lose any non rust belt states he won last time.

Someone better put you on suicide watch on election night. :lol

Or you

[Spurtacular]

Or you

Name the non rust belt states Trump won last time that he'll lose.

[Will Hunting]

Ahhh, but we didn't vote him in.

If Biden grows a spine and relies on his natural instincts, his presidency might not be all that bad. He's the old fashioned type who (like Lindsey Graham) would accept (and be vilified for) a kiss from the other side.
Go fuck yourself. The GOP has been giving bipartisanship the middle finger the last 4 years, and now you want the Dems to start being kind hearted and seek bipartisanship if they get full control of the White House and Congress.

[Reck]

Name the non rust belt states Trump won last time that he'll lose.

Asking for hand holding this early already?

I’ll let you believe whatever you want. I’ll collect on November the 3rd.

[Spurtacular]

Asking for hand holding this early already?

I’ll let you believe whatever you want. I’ll collect on November the 3rd.

Copout.

I'm asking you to show your math.

Just admit you don't have any math. You have wishes. :lmao

[Reck]

Copout.

I'm asking you to show your math.

Just admit you don't have any math. You have wishes. :lmao

Polls. Look them up.

[Spurtacular]

Polls. Look them up.

Ive seen them. That has nothing to do with you making your calls.
You don't have any calls / faith in the polls.

[Reck]

Ive seen them. That has nothing to do with you making your calls.
You don't have any calls / faith in the polls.

My call is he’ll lose some of his own red states. Arizona is all but gone. Georgia is 60/40 at this point and Texas is at play.

[Spurtacular]

My call is he’ll lose some of his own red states. Arizona is all but gone. Georgia is 60/40 at this point and Texas is at play.

So, what I'm hearing is you want to really really believe in Arizona and that in your heart of hearts you know Georgia and Texas you have no chance.

And even with that, your math would've been that Trump has to win 2 of Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin, not all three.

You didn't do the math is all, tranny.

[Spurtacular]

Before I forget.


Arizona is all but gone.

:lmao


Georgia is 60/40 at this point

:lmao


Texas is at play.

:lmao

[Reck]

Before I forget.



:lmao



:lmao



:lmao

Too early for these kind of meltdowns, no?

I told you. See you in November.

[rmt]

Go fuck yourself. The GOP has been giving bipartisanship the middle finger the last 4 years, and now you want the Dems to start being kind hearted and seek bipartisanship if they get full control of the White House and Congress.

LOL - that's Biden's what's that word - schlitz (whatever - you know what I mean :-)

[Spurtacular]

Too early for these kind of meltdowns, no?

I told you. See you in November.

Trump won Texas by 9 percent. It's not in play.
Trump won Georgia by 5 percent. 60/40 for Dems is more of a stretch than your ass on a Saturday night.
Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percent. It's not "all but over" in favor of Democrats.

And frankly, I'll call it now; Trump will win those states by more. He has all the momentum.

[Will Hunting]

Trump won Texas by 9 percent. It's not in play.
Trump won Georgia by 5 percent. 60/40 for Dems is more of a stretch than your ass on a Saturday night.
Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percent. It's not "all but over" in favor of Democrats.

And frankly, I'll call it now; Trump will win those states by more. He has all the momentum.
You wanna bet on that?

[Reck]

Trump won Texas by 9 percent. It's not in play.
Trump won Georgia by 5 percent. 60/40 for Dems is more of a stretch than your ass on a Saturday night.
Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percent. It's not "all but over" in favor of Democrats.

And frankly, I'll call it now; Trump will win those states by more. He has all the momentum.

Bump material shit. :tu

[Spurtacular]

Bump material shit. :tu

You won't be bumping it when the tears is flowing is all.

[Will Hunting]

Bump material shit. :tu
He’s written an encyclopedia of bump material shit the last few weeks :lol

The MAGAtards who think Trump actually has a shot at blowing Biden out and winning California New York or Illinois belong in the puzzle factory.

[Spurtacular]

You wanna bet on that?

Not really. The main point is Trump will win all three just fine.

[Spurtacular]

He’s written an encyclopedia of bump material shit the last few weeks :lol

The MAGAtards who think Trump actually has a shot at blowing Biden out and winning California New York or Illinois belong in the puzzle factory.

The Chumpettes had volumes of 2016 Hillary humping bumped. You guys still carry on like it didn't happen. :lol

[Reck]

Not really. The main point is Trump will win all three just fine.

:lmao

[Will Hunting]

The Chumpettes had volumes of 2016 Hillary humping bumped. You guys still carry on like it didn't happen. :lol
I can’t speak for other people but feel free to point me towards any 2016 bump material that came from me. I stayed pretty wishy washy on what would happen because I knew it’d be close.

[Spurtacular]

:lmao

I don't do bets with every mealy mouthed Chumpette trying to chip at me.
Lakers did that sh** back in the day; sicked Dick Fox or Devean George on stars to try and get them out of the game.
5X ST MVP don't play that sh**.

[Reck]

I don't do bets with every mealy mouthed Chumpette trying to chip at me.
Lakers did that sh** back in the day; sicked Dick Fox or Devean George on stars to try and get them out of the game.
5X ST MVP don't play that sh**.

Did you just had a stroke?

[Spurtacular]

I can’t speak for other people but feel free to point me towards any 2016 bump material that came from me. I stayed pretty wishy washy on what would happen because I knew it’d be close.

You may not have been a particularly bad offender. Don't recall one way or another. Tons of :lol material all the same.

[RandomGuy]

He won't lose any non rust belt states he won last time.

Someone better put you on suicide watch on election night. :lol

(bookmarks for later mocking)

[Spurtacular]

Did you just had a stroke?

Cute. You learned the latest woke comeback.

[RandomGuy]

Ahhh, but we didn't vote him in.

If Biden grows a spine and relies on his natural instincts, his presidency might not be all that bad. He's the old fashioned type who (like Lindsey Graham) would accept (and be vilified for) a kiss from the other side.

Obama won two elections.

[Will Hunting]

The first thing Biden should do if he wins is not listen to Trump supporters tell him what will or won’t make him a good president.

[Spurtacular]

(bookmarks for later mocking)

Best case scenario for you. You'll have little to no room to talk. :lmao


https://www.270towin.com/map-images/KPweZ.png

Going to guess almost everything but Iowa goes Bidens way. Moderate confidence.

[Reck]

Best case scenario for you. You'll have little to no room to talk. :lmao

This map is actually outdated. It's a lot bluer. All those leans democrats are now likely to safe.

New Mexico is safe dem.

[RandomGuy]

Best case scenario for you. You'll have little to no room to talk. :lmao

You fill one out yet. Love to see it.

[Spurtacular]

You fill one out yet. Love to see it.

Was going to wait til November 1ish. But might have to. I can always amend as needed.

[SnakeBoy]

I can’t speak for other people but feel free to point me towards any 2016 bump material that came from me. I stayed pretty wishy washy on what would happen because I knew it’d be close.

I said Hillary would win and Trump was a moderate Democrat

Called it

[Reck]

Was going to wait til November 1ish. But might have to. I can always amend as needed.

Do it.

[spurraider21]

IronMexican (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=12289) get that “Kermit sipping tea” meme ready when Biden gets the House and Senate and does jack shit with all of that, and everyone here bitches about how incompetent he is.
and i'll have that Kermit sippin tea meme on indefinitely as we are not slipping farther toward fascism. harm reduction is always a W

[RandomGuy]

Was going to wait til November 1ish. But might have to. I can always amend as needed.

Pretty much what everyone else is doing.

[SnakeBoy]

Yeehaw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BRLHTAnj-4&feature=emb_logo

[Will Hunting]

and i'll have that Kermit sippin tea meme on indefinitely as we are not slipping farther toward fascism. harm reduction is always a W
Not to mention them delicious conservative tears :lol

[Reck]

Not to mention them delicious conservative tears :lol

Like the post above yours.

[RandomGuy]

Yeehaw
[deceptively edited video]

I have to somewhat admire your commitment to being a dishonest broker. You have hardly ever deviated from that to have a good faith discussion on anything.

You are one of the reasons I have begun to think that being a modern conservative is somehow based on some kind of lying.

Why is your ideology so violent and dishonest? smh.

[Spurminator]

1319347849646215168

This doesn't really mean anything for Kansas specifically but it's another good example of how Trump and the GOP's base have shrunk in red hotspots.

[Will Hunting]

1319347849646215168

This doesn't really mean anything for Kansas specifically but it's another good example of how Trump and the GOP's base have shrunk in red hotspots.
It kinda does for Kansas. Trump is definitely part of the reason, but Kansas is hungover from the Sam Brownback austerity horror show. It’s how a Dem Governor got elected there in 2018. The state moved to the left after it got a taste of what unfettered right wing economic policy looks like.

[FrostKing]

Yeehaw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BRLHTAnj-4&feature=emb_logo
A brown woman up for Vice President preaching racial victimhood is rich

[Bogie]

A brown woman up for Vice President preaching racial victimhood is rich


can you explain why this effects you, since you live in Poland?

[FrostKing]

can you explain why this effects you, since you live in Poland?
Poland resides in Western sphere. Troublesome when an ally might fall into the hands of ideological extremist.

[Bogie]

Poland resides in Western sphere. Troublesome when an ally might fall into the hands of ideological extremist.


but you’re in Poland as you have said several times.

you also claimed to have a Latina for a significant other, when there

is literally no Hispanic population in Poland. Then you followed that with a claim that her illegal immigrant father was going to commit voter fraud to vote for trump.

This current administration has damaged all the relationships with long term European allies already. How does that help you in Poland, when your relationship with America has become non existent with trump?

[Spurminator]

It kinda does for Kansas. Trump is definitely part of the reason, but Kansas is hungover from the Sam Brownback austerity horror show. It’s how a Dem Governor got elected there in 2018. The state moved to the left after it got a taste of what unfettered right wing economic policy looks like.

Right, I just meant Dems are still unlikely to win those two races. But long-term, it's definitely a good sign, and probably good for some of the local and state races.

[Will Hunting]

Right, I just meant Dems are still unlikely to win those two races. But long-term, it's definitely a good sign, and probably good for some of the local and state races.
Yeah Biden has no chance at winning Kansas. Id say Bollier has a 20% chance since she’s a former Republican state legislator who’s gotten a lot of endorsements from other Kansas Republicans and has raised a lot more money than her opponent. Getting ticket splitting votes is impossible these days but she could get enough ticket splitters in the KC suburbs.

[RandomGuy]

It kinda does for Kansas. Trump is definitely part of the reason, but Kansas is hungover from the Sam Brownback austerity horror show. It’s how a Dem Governor got elected there in 2018. The state moved to the left after it got a taste of what unfettered right wing economic policy looks like.

Nods.

Republicans couldn't run away from that turd fast enough. They were pounding their chests about how cool those tax cuts were, and how much they were just going to pwn the libs with them when Kansas rocketed past its neighbors.

Talk about a Kool-aid hangover...

[Reck]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/22/bernie-sanders-biden-labor-secretary-431266

Weird thread to put this in but there are really nowhere else this fits so here it is. Some food for thought.

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) baseline bum (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=131) might like this.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/22/bernie-sanders-biden-labor-secretary-431266

Weird thread to put this in but there are really nowhere else this fits so here it is. Some food for thought.

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) baseline bum (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=131) might like this.
So a Republican governor in Vermont can pick his replacement? No thanks, Bernie is being selfish if he actually wants the Dems to give up a senate seat so he can be in the cabinet. I want Yang as labor secretary.

If Bernie wanted a cabinet position, he should have made a deal back in April the way Buttigeig and Klobuchar did. All this does now is create drama.

[baseline bum]

So a Republican governor in Vermont can pick his replacement? No thanks, Bernie is being selfish if he actually wants the Dems to give up a senate seat so he can be in the cabinet. I want Yang as labor secretary.

If Bernie wanted a cabinet position, he should have made a deal back in April the way Buttigeig and Klobuchar did. All this does now is create drama.

If the Democrats can preserve their veto-proof majority in the VT senate and house and pass a bill forcing the governor to replace Sanders with an appointment from his own party until the special election, I wouldn't mind seeing Bernie as labor secretary. He could do a lot more there than he will in the senate.

[baseline bum]

On second thought, even with that law the VT governor would probably pick another Macnhin. Yeah, scrap that idea of Bernie in a cabinet position.

[Will Hunting]

If the Democrats can preserve their veto-proof majority in the VT senate and pass a bill forcing the governor to replace Sanders with an appointment from his own party until the special election, I wouldn't mind seeing Bernie as labor secretary. He could do a lot more there than he will in the senate.
Fine, so Phil Scott will pick an establishment shill with a D next to his name who'd never vote to nuke the filibuster. No thanks. They can't risk it with a senate seat.

I want Yang as labor secretary. He won't be much different from Bernie and it positions him for a 2024 run.

EDIT - You beat me to it :lol

[baseline bum]

Fine, so Phil Scott will pick an establishment shill with a D next to his name who'd never vote to nuke the filibuster. No thanks. They can't risk it with a senate seat.

I want Yang as labor secretary. He won't be much different from Bernie and it positions him for a 2024 run.

Yeah you're right on second thought. Posted similar right before this post.

[Will Hunting]

Yang is also more qualified as labor secretary. More private sector experience and has a much better grasp on the effects of automation that anyone else involved with politics. He also has fans on both sides of the aisle. It makes sense from a policy perspective and from a politics perspective.

I want Bernie in the senate making guys like Schumer and Durbin nervous.

[Reck]

Yang is also more qualified as labor secretary. More private sector experience and has a much better grasp on the effects of automation that anyone else involved with politics. He also has fans on both sides of the aisle. It makes sense from a policy perspective and from a politics perspective.

I want Bernie in the senate making guys like Schumer and Durbin nervous.

I saw this interview a few days ago. He seems more interested in being the chairman of his committee if dems regain the senate.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRPkrIZXpG4

[Will Hunting]

I saw this interview a few days ago. He seems more interested in being the chairman of his committee if dems regain the senate.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRPkrIZXpG4
Yeah I've seen multiple interviews where he's clearly yearning to chair a committee which is what I would prefer.

That Kyle Kulinski douche is losing his shit over how Biden is going to snub him.

[RandomGuy]

I saw this interview a few days ago. He seems more interested in being the chairman of his committee if dems regain the senate.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRPkrIZXpG4

That should be fun.

"Chairman Sanders" has a certain... ring to it.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
Odds are looking good for a Democratic Senate.

Trumps' chances have stabilized at about 12%, so a long shot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Dems are going to not only keep the house, but extend their margin.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/

[SnakeBoy]

1319765013771505665

[baseline bum]

1319765013771505665

So you're saying he has conservative appeal too then.

[SnakeBoy]

So you're saying he has conservative appeal too then.

:lol

[DarrinS]

Trumps' chances have stabilized at about 12%, so a long shot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/




Oct 23, 2016
Hillary 86.2%
Trump 13.8%

Oct 23, 2020
Biden 87%
Trump 13%

[Isitjustme?]

1319749236251070466

[Spurminator]

Oct 23, 2016
Hillary 86.2%
Trump 13.8%

Oct 23, 2020
Biden 87%
Trump 13%

I wouldn't bank on a 13% candidate going 2 for 2.

[baseline bum]

1319749236251070466

Wow, what a retard

[Spurminator]

1319788990162210816

[Will Hunting]

Young voters typically procrastinate too, so the the numbers as we get close to Election Day will get really interesting.

[Will Hunting]

So you're saying he has conservative appeal too then.
:lmao

He just picked up votes in Mojave County.

[Reck]

1319788990162210816

To add to this
1319636681071468544 (https://twitter.com/simonwdc/status/1319636681071468544?s=21)

[gambit1990]

idk what's more unreal between the dobbs thing and the young voter turnout :tu:tu

[gambit1990]

tbh, trump was behind the dobbs take down of lindsey.

no reason he would attack an ally of the trump like that.

the funniest thing is the only person dumb enough to encourage that is trump :lmao

[gambit1990]

no doubt trump will take people down with him.

barr, wray, lindsey...

hey trump, please go after mitch asap.

[gambit1990]

trump will hate these early tallies and look to discredit them.

trump soon: "young people never vote this much, i won't say what it is you but you know and we all know, for a very time we've all known all about this sort of stuff. and it's not good, i'll tell you that."

[FrostKing]

The higher the percentage of voter turnout, the lower the IQ and informed.

[ElNono]

The higher the percentage of voter turnout, the lower the IQ and informed.

Don't be so hard on yourself, tbh...

[Winehole23]

The higher the percentage of voter turnout, the lower the IQ and informed.:tu

[Bogie]

The higher the percentage of voter turnout, the lower the IQ and informed.

you’re saying people in Poland, where you live, are either lazy or stupid?

[baseline bum]

1319765013771505665

So fake news from Cocaine Mitch apparently.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kelly-deny-arizona-senate-adolf-hitler-photo

[Reck]

So fake news from Cocaine Mitch apparently.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kelly-deny-arizona-senate-adolf-hitler-photo


R-Ken. It is spending tens of millions to help defeat the former Navy combat pilot (https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/military/navy).

:lmao Spending millions on behalf of a bitch that is down like 15 points and already lost once to a lesbian.

[SnakeBoy]

So fake news from Cocaine Mitch apparently.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kelly-deny-arizona-senate-adolf-hitler-photo

:tu for Mitch

Mark Kelly has to explain that he is not Hitler :lol

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Spending millions on behalf of a bitch that is down like 15 points and already lost once to a lesbian.
:lol Manhands McSally gifting the Democrats 2 senate seats

[GB20]

:lol Manhands McSally gifting the Democrats 2 senate seats
She will run again in 2022.:lol

[Will Hunting]

:lmao using the same actors for ads in Iowa and Kansas

1320383415535980545

[Fat Brandon Bass]

Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own constituencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.

:lmao

Pretty rich coming from the guy who can't even cook his own rice tbh imo

[RandomGuy]

Oct 23, 2016
Hillary 86.2%
Trump 13.8%

Oct 23, 2020
Biden 87%
Trump 13%

An almost good point.

Oct 23 this year though, is ten days before the election.

Better comparison would have been E-10 days.

75-25 at that point.

[Will Hunting]

An almost good point.

Oct 23 this year though, is ten days before the election.

Better comparison would have been E-10 days.

75-25 at that point.
:lol and now 8 days before the election, it’s still 87% for Biden. In 2016 it was 73% for Hillary 8 days before the election.

[Bogie]

:tu for Mitch

Mark Kelly has to explain that he is not Hitler :lol

think of how stupid and frightened you are. You really hate yourself for being afraid, don’t you? You prove how much it bothers you to know you’re afraid every single day.

[Reck]

Snake boy is only in it to own the libs here.

It’s an actual GOP position these days. They’re going to get crushed on it but they will still do it. :lol

[Will Hunting]

In 2016 Hillary ignored congressional district polling that showed her in deep shit, and it ended up being accurate. This year the congressional district polling has just gotten worse and worse for Trump. A new one has him down 11 points in TX-03, a highly educated suburb heavy district he won by 14 points in 2016. Similarly, the Monmouth district polling done last week for each district in Iowa showed a generic ballot of D +6. If the congressional district polling is as accurate as it was 4 years ago the election will be a 1980 level wipeout.

[Spurminator]

A new one has him down 11 points in TX-03, a highly educated suburb heavy district he won by 14 points in 2016.

I love this one because it's one of the few districts Republicans didn't bother to gerrymander because it was so reliably Republican.

Another casualty of the GOP's emphasis on appealing to uneducated white people.

[Will Hunting]

I love this one because it's one of the few districts Republicans didn't bother to gerrymander because it was so reliably Republican.

Another casualty of the GOP's emphasis on appealing to uneducated white people.
TX-10 is the one I’d really like to see go blue. It’s one of the most obnoxiously gerrymandered districts in the state the way stretches from North Austin to what used to be reliably red suburbs in Houston.

[SnakeBoy]

Snake boy is only in it to own the libs here.

It’s an actual GOP position these days. They’re going to get crushed on it but they will still do it. :lol

If your dreams come true you will be led by Biden, Pelosi, & Schumer :lol

[ChumpDumper]

If your dreams come true you will be led by Biden, Pelosi, & Schumer:tu better than your shit lineup

[Reck]

If your dreams come true you will be led by Biden, Pelosi, & Schumer :lol

Does it make you cry? If so, I'm ok with that.

[boutons_deux]

So fake news from Cocaine Mitch apparently.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kelly-deny-arizona-senate-adolf-hitler-photo

For the AZ cult mob, the damage is done.

[baseline bum]

TX-10 is the one I’d really like to see go blue. It’s one of the most obnoxiously gerrymandered districts in the state the way stretches from North Austin to what used to be reliably red suburbs in Houston.

You should look at what TX-35 looks like :lol

[Will Hunting]

For the AZ cult mob, the damage is done.
The Arizona Republic called bullshit on it from the get go. Don't be so dramatic, that stupid hit piece is going to have little to no effect on the AZ election.

[Will Hunting]

You should look at what TX-35 looks like :lol
:lmao just looked it up. What was the goal with that? Cram the Democrats from San Antonio and Austin into the same district?

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao just looked it up. What was the goal with that? Cram the Democrats from San Antonio and Austin into the same district?Pretty much putting most of Austin's Hispanics and San Antonio's blacks together so they won't affect any other district.

[boutons_deux]

Photo of Man in Halloween Costume Isn’t Mark Kelly

https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/Kelly.jpg





https://www.factcheck.org/2020/10/photo-of-man-in-halloween-costume-isnt-mark-kelly/

[Spurs Homer]

Promises made. Promises kept.

Trump and his cult promised that Trump would blow up D.C. and drain the swamp.

The demise of the GOP - is almost complete.

Thanks, Trump!

[Extra Stout]

A week or two ago, I thought the early voting data in Texas was less than favorable for Biden. This was based upon TargetSmart partisan preference modeling that showed the GOP with an early advantage (51-43).

In states that don’t register by party, like Texas, that outfit models party preference based upon demographics and consumer data.

In Wisconsin, there is significant disagreement between polls of early voters and TargetSmart projections. For example, one poll by the NYT shows early voters in WI 82-18 for Biden, while the TargetSmart projection is 45D-37R-18I.

With that kind of divergence, one of them is simply wrong. There is no need to try to reconcile the two. There is no possible reality in which 50% of Republicans vote for Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Texas leads the nation in voting so far at 7.2 million, with several suburban counties already exceeding their total 2016 turnout with five days of early voting left. District-level polls of those same suburban counties show an absolute massacre for Donald Trump, with Biden running 12-14 points ahead of Clinton. TargetSmart data suggests this is totally wrong, that Trump is winning the early vote, and will only extend his lead on Election Day. There are a couple of national-level polls that follow the latter narrative, and include things like 25-30% of the black vote to Trump.

So, if applied to Texas, either Biden is going to do the unthinkable and turn Texas blue on a wave of enormous turnout and newly-blue suburbs, or Trump not only has held onto his base, but has won over a couple million new acolytes and will win by double digits.

There’s not really an argument to be had. These are two incongruous sets of facts and data. One of these is reality, and the other is a partisan wishcasting delusion.

I guess we’ll find out which is which next week.

[DMX7]

You should look at what TX-35 looks like :lol

I looked it up and literally started laughing. This is what you get when you have a political party that is both extreme and totally shameless.

[Extra Stout]

I looked it up and literally started laughing. This is what you get when you have a political party that is both extreme and totally shameless.
Texas won its case at the Supreme Court with THAT district on the map. In case you believed that Alito, Gorsuch, and co. are highly principled legal intellectuals with a coherent originalist philosophy, as opposed to partisan hacks committed to White Christian minority rule, remember that they voted to uphold a map with THAT district on it.

[baseline bum]

LOL here is TX-35

https://www.270towin.com/uploads/tx-35.png

Washington Post called it the ninth most gerrymandered house district in the nation in an article a few years ago.

[Spurminator]

Still the GOAT imo.

https://i.redd.it/kr6x704tlwux.png

Would love to see Dread Pirate Crewshaw voted out.

[SnakeBoy]

Does it make you cry? If so, I'm ok with that.

Nope. Makes me happy tbh

[Extra Stout]

TX-10 is the one I’d really like to see go blue. It’s one of the most obnoxiously gerrymandered districts in the state the way stretches from North Austin to what used to be reliably red suburbs in Houston.
You watch, this next go-round, the GOP’s proposed map will have a dozen or more districts like TX-10. Even if the Legislature turns blue, the Republicans still have the Senate and Greg Abbott is still Governor. The Republicans cannot afford any kind of reasonable compromise, because Texas has to be their firewall. It will go to the backup redistricting commission, which has four Republicans and at most one Democrat if the Legislature flips. From there, if it goes to the courts, you have a 5th Circuit that will rubber-stamp Dan Patrick’s most outrageous wet dreams, and a Supreme Court that will do the same.

They’ll go all out, no matter what. It’s an existential crisis for them. Once Texas goes blue, the current party system ends because there no longer will be a path for Republicans to compete nationally, and there is no way to expand their appeal without losing their white nationalist/evangelical Christian (but I repeat myself) base. Once that happens, I predict the Progressive/socialist left will split off from the Democratic Party, while the Dems graft in the moderate Chamber of Commerce former Republicans and the racists/Christians drop out of electoral politics and dream of making The Turner Diaries come true.

[Extra Stout]

Still the GOAT imo.

https://i.redd.it/kr6x704tlwux.png

Would love to see Dread Pirate Crewshaw voted out.
If there were a poll suggesting TX-2 was competitive, we would have seen it by now. Sima Ladjevardian is the wrong kind of Democrat to win that district. But, she’s good enough at fundraising to self-fund... not enough to credibly keep up with the nationally popular Crenshaw and his own fundraising prowess, but enough to keep the Democratic base engaged.

Plus, she’s the exact right kind of Democrat to get favorable press in the Washington Post so that affluent coastal liberals keep donating.

[Will Hunting]

If there were a poll suggesting TX-2 was competitive, we would have seen it by now. Sima Ladjevardian is the wrong kind of Democrat to win that district. But, she’s good enough at fundraising to self-fund... not enough to credibly keep up with the nationally popular Crenshaw and his own fundraising prowess, but enough to keep the Democratic base engaged.

Plus, she’s the exact right kind of Democrat to get favorable press in the Washington Post so that affluent coastal liberals keep donating.
The fact she's running against Eyepatch Douche probably draws money from coastal liberals too.

[Extra Stout]

For redistricting, I figure the GOP will cede the 7th District and pack some of the Democratic parts of the 2nd and 10th into it. It would be symbolic, since the Republican Party of George Bush is dead and gone.

[Will Hunting]

You watch, this next go-round, the GOP’s proposed map will have a dozen or more districts like TX-10. Even if the Legislature turns blue, the Republicans still have the Senate and Greg Abbott is still Governor. The Republicans cannot afford any kind of reasonable compromise, because Texas has to be their firewall. It will go to the backup redistricting commission, which has four Republicans and at most one Democrat if the Legislature flips. From there, if it goes to the courts, you have a 5th Circuit that will rubber-stamp Dan Patrick’s most outrageous wet dreams, and a Supreme Court that will do the same.

They’ll go all out, no matter what. It’s an existential crisis for them. Once Texas goes blue, the current party system ends because there no longer will be a path for Republicans to compete nationally, and there is no way to expand their appeal without losing their white nationalist/evangelical Christian (but I repeat myself) base. Once that happens, I predict the Progressive/socialist left will split off from the Democratic Party, while the Dems graft in the moderate Chamber of Commerce former Republicans and the racists/Christians drop out of electoral politics and dream of making The Turner Diaries come true.
This is why Democrats need to pass an over-the-top robust voting rights act that'll be in place before the 2022 midterms, and they should just make it so the new VRA applies to all 50 states so the constitutionality argument Roberts used to overturn the last VRA goes away. The GOP is only going to be more aggressive with voter suppression from here on out because it's the only way they can win. If there's a VRA that stops them they're beyond fucked.

[RandomGuy]

A week or two ago, I thought the early voting data in Texas was less than favorable for Biden. This was based upon TargetSmart partisan preference modeling that showed the GOP with an early advantage (51-43).

In states that don’t register by party, like Texas, that outfit models party preference based upon demographics and consumer data.

In Wisconsin, there is significant disagreement between polls of early voters and TargetSmart projections. For example, one poll by the NYT shows early voters in WI 82-18 for Biden, while the TargetSmart projection is 45D-37R-18I.

With that kind of divergence, one of them is simply wrong. There is no need to try to reconcile the two. There is no possible reality in which 50% of Republicans vote for Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Texas leads the nation in voting so far at 7.2 million, with several suburban counties already exceeding their total 2016 turnout with five days of early voting left. District-level polls of those same suburban counties show an absolute massacre for Donald Trump, with Biden running 12-14 points ahead of Clinton. TargetSmart data suggests this is totally wrong, that Trump is winning the early vote, and will only extend his lead on Election Day. There are a couple of national-level polls that follow the latter narrative, and include things like 25-30% of the black vote to Trump.

So, if applied to Texas, either Biden is going to do the unthinkable and turn Texas blue on a wave of enormous turnout and newly-blue suburbs, or Trump not only has held onto his base, but has won over a couple million new acolytes and will win by double digits.

There’s not really an argument to be had. These are two incongruous sets of facts and data. One of these is reality, and the other is a partisan wishcasting delusion.

I guess we’ll find out which is which next week.

They could both be wrong.

My feeling is that the most riled up, like myself, voted at the first opportunity. All that remains are the people who "meh" along in most elections, who will slightly favor Biden.

Texas was 52-43 for Trump

My guess is that baseline has eroded. 49-46 for Trump this time around, or even a nail-biter 48-47

I do not see 25% of the african-american population in any state going for Trump. Not no how, not no way.

[Extra Stout]

They could both be wrong.

My feeling is that the most riled up, like myself, voted at the first opportunity. All that remains are the people who "meh" along in most elections, who will slightly favor Biden.

Texas was 52-43 for Trump

My guess is that baseline has eroded. 49-46 for Trump this time around, or even a nail-biter 48-47

I do not see 25% of the african-american population in any state going for Trump. Not no how, not no way.
Trump won by 800,000 last time around. The suburban shift among 2016 voters means that about 200,000 people who voted Trump last time will vote Biden this time. These are mostly suburban women. That’s a shift of 400,000, half of Trump’s 2016 margin.

Then there are the three million additional voters. Biden would need 57-60% of them, depending on how many Hispanic men switch over to Trump. That’s an actual thing. I mean, it’s not enough for Trump to pull George W. Bush numbers, or else Will Hurd wouldn’t have retired, and Beto wouldn’t have won Hispanics 69-30 no matter how dreamy the Latinas think he is, but there is some movement there.

It will take 6 million votes to win Texas. Trump wins if there are enough people in the deep-red areas who usually don’t bother voting because Texas has been automatically red, but who show up this time because it’s competitive.

[Will Hunting]

Trump won by 800,000 last time around. The suburban shift among 2016 voters means that about 200,000 people who voted Trump last time will vote Biden this time. These are mostly suburban women. That’s a shift of 400,000, half of Trump’s 2016 margin.

Then there are the three million additional voters. Biden would need 57-60% of them, depending on how many Hispanic men switch over to Trump. That’s an actual thing. I mean, it’s not enough for Trump to pull George W. Bush numbers, or else Will Hurd wouldn’t have retired, and Beto wouldn’t have won Hispanics 69-30 no matter how dreamy the Latinas think he is, but there is some movement there.

It will take 6 million votes to win Texas. Trump wins if there are enough people in the deep-red areas who usually don’t bother voting because Texas has been automatically red, but who show up this time because it’s competitive.
Imo an X factor in Texas are educated professionals in their 30s (older millennials/younger Gen Xers) in the major cities. These are people who are usually disengaged politically because they’re too busy starting a family or focusing their career and vote sporadically (if they vote at all). A lot of this group is going to vote this year not because they have an opinion on policy but just because they find Trump annoying. He reminds them of that freshman in college who’d show up to parties and would act stupid because he couldn’t hold his liquor. He was funny for about 20 minutes but they’re tired of him now. My friends from when I lived in DFW are like this and they’ve already voted for Biden.

[RandomGuy]

Trump won by 800,000 last time around. The suburban shift among 2016 voters means that about 200,000 people who voted Trump last time will vote Biden this time. These are mostly suburban women. That’s a shift of 400,000, half of Trump’s 2016 margin.

Then there are the three million additional voters. Biden would need 57-60% of them, depending on how many Hispanic men switch over to Trump. That’s an actual thing. I mean, it’s not enough for Trump to pull George W. Bush numbers, or else Will Hurd wouldn’t have retired, and Beto wouldn’t have won Hispanics 69-30 no matter how dreamy the Latinas think he is, but there is some movement there.

It will take 6 million votes to win Texas. Trump wins if there are enough people in the deep-red areas who usually don’t bother voting because Texas has been automatically red, but who show up this time because it’s competitive.

Eyup. Your thoughts here are about what I said, roughly, somewhere else.

The split of new voters would have to be pretty heavily in favor of Biden for him to win. I know we have built on the organization we had in 2018, but didn't see the kind of ground-level power registration of new voters that would be needed to swing it.

Will be fun seeing the GOP lose more seats in the lege though. Hope I get to keep my rep. Zwiener is good. Smart, smart, smart. Watched her debate with the cardboard cutout the GOP picked to run against her. the cardboard cutout did not say one single thing the entire time that appealed to the center. it was "liberal elite" and "radical liberal" the whole time.

Intellectually bankrupt is the only way I can really describe watching the Republican flounder.

[RandomGuy]

Imo an X factor in Texas are educated professionals in their 30s (older millennials/younger Gen Xers) in the major cities. These are people who are usually disengaged politically because they’re too busy starting a family or focusing their career and vote sporadically (if they vote at all). A lot of this group is going to vote this year not because they have an opinion on policy but just because they find Trump annoying. He reminds them of that freshman in college who’d show up to parties and would act stupid because he couldn’t hold his liquor. He was funny for about 20 minutes but they’re tired of him now. My friends from when I lived in DFW are like this and they’ve already voted for Biden.

First time voters under 30 have surged. That demographic is very heavily breaking for Biden. There are more millenials than boomers... if they get off their asses to vote, they really could change shit. Hope they do.

[FrostKing]

First time voters under 30 have surged. That demographic is very heavily breaking for Biden. There are more millenials than boomers... if they get off their asses to vote, they really could change shit. Hope they do.
People without jobs, student loan debt, living with mommy and listening to Rap dictating the direction of the country

[Will Hunting]

First time voters under 30 have surged. That demographic is very heavily breaking for Biden. There are more millenials than boomers... if they get off their asses to vote, they really could change shit. Hope they do.
I’m not talking about the under 30 crowd. I’m talking about 30 something year olds who rarely ever vote but are voting now just because they’re tired of hearing about Trump on a daily basis.

[FrostKing]

I’m not talking about the under 30 crowd. I’m talking about 30 something year olds who rarely ever vote but are voting now just because they’re tired of hearing about Trump on a daily basis.
I think there is truth to that. They now have their get out of jail card the next time they are pressured over slavery, white privilege and systematic racism.

[Spurminator]

1321150673610854406

[RandomGuy]

1321150673610854406

Trump's campaign is out of money.

This is a the chance to nail them in every market possible, because they can't respond.

[Spurminator]

It's not really a lot of money but it's still double what the Biden campaign was spending in TX (assuming that $15MM is split between TX and OH).

[Reck]

Hopefully it works like it did in Florida.

When Bloomberg spent a cool 100 million in Florida, Biden went up 2 points there.

[Will Hunting]

I’m getting increasingly concerned we have a lot of black voters too busy saying MUH DICK to pay attention to world events who operate on CP time and are going to mail their ballot the day before Election Day assuming Dejoy’s USPS will deliver it on time.