*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreih5eeabdeth4z7h3uru2sov3tyd7sj46tuyxolzt6xh7 qwxe2kc4m

[Winehole23]

forum inflation hawks nowhere to be seen


The Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation came in under estimates but still hit multiyear highs last month, showing a continued pinch on consumers and likely keeping America’s central bank on the monetary policy sidelines.


The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% month-over-month in April, which was below Dow Jones-surveyed economists’ estimates for 0.5% PCE growth. The year-over-year rate of 3.8% was in line with estimates.
https://youngandtheinvested.com/april-2026-pce-inflation/

[Blake]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJUmEnmWgAAojup?format=jpg&name=900x900

Yeah I've noticed the price going up and the quality going down

[Blake]

forum inflation hawks nowhere to be seen

https://youngandtheinvested.com/april-2026-pce-inflation/

TSA DOING BETTER THAN EVER

* from Korea

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreigruv5aoyra76hk2u4mgsdg7m6uuychhyr77cuc5hwbk z4fbwhd5i


“there have been 17 ‘sell signals’ since ’02, average loss for global stocks over 2-3 months is 2-3% (hit ratio of ~60%), with max drawdowns of 15-20%;”

[Winehole23]

regular folks tired of a rigged system



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieljrbt4m4yzzzm3ueu3a4xgkrllthjq47ajrhvs2kb5 h6vkssym4https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-divide-between-corporate-profits-and-worker-pay-ea4c75bc

[Winehole23]

1Q GDP revised down to +1.6 from 2.0

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibfscad7wr4qux3m32nmtamqyoah4pcoh5susu74pjb7 mxalp2k3a


“.. Even if the conflict were to be resolved today,” he said, effects would hit the food system “well into late summer and the fall,” or even 2027 ..

[Winehole23]

More people in the United States are going hungry now (https://www.npr.org/2025/11/24/nx-s1-5601111/heres-how-hunger-and-food-insecurity-affect-individuals-and-whole-societies) than did during the depths of the pandemic six years ago, according to a new survey from the New York Federal Reserve Bank.


The New York Fed periodically asks Americans if they're having to skip meals, rely on food donations, or receiving federal assistance to buy groceries.


Results from the most recent survey in February show higher levels of food insecurity now than during the summer of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic triggered double-digit unemployment.

[velik_m]

The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000

The S&P 500 closed at a record on the last trading day of May, but only a handful of stocks — focused mostly in the AI area — hit their own all-time highs.

This strange occurrence echoes what happened at the top of dot-com bubble 26 years ago.

On Friday, just 20 of the index members hit a record. Of those 20, just seven were not directly related to artificial intelligence.

Michael Hartnett at Bank of America pointed out in a note to end last week that it was just 20 stocks that hit new highs at the very top of the internet bubble in March 2000.

While the widely followed strategist said the “speculative price action” is likely not over yet, this occurrence is the latest sign that it is nearing. Hartnett believes central banks and rising interest rates will ultimately spell the end, giving clients a “post-bubble” road map.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-something-eerily-similar-to-the-dotcom-bubble-top-in-2000.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifjf75gdoaoffdvc5cgpane7jchzqszcmtcvzfuh6dwj aisrskbiy


GOLDMAN: “.. higher energy prices will continue to erode household spending power for the rest of the year, and we forecast only 0.9% real income growth in 2026 ..

“.. we expect consumer spending growth to decelerate to 1.3% for the remainder of the year, below .. our estimate of potential growth.”

[Winehole23]

jobs market heating up just as the world approaches the energy cliff


Non-farm payrolls +172k vs +88k exp/+115k prev
Pvt payrolls +120k vs +89k exp/+123k prev
Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% exp/4.3% prev
Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.3% MoM est/+0.2% prev

[Winehole23]

interesting full/part-time mix

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiciyxqrvqg7srs4eigxhah45y7guaccbagk7v5cwl2m5 dbe77zixu

[Winehole23]

otherwise a very favorable trend politically, hard to see how Trump pulls out of his tailspin

starting a stupid war and precipitating a global energy shock was stupid, but Trump was cratering out well before that

historically unpopular president and policies


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ccrabc6xdnjx4l7btvynnng4/bafkreiffgzvdouoj56qzzl5lb2rniwnbrymjxhtjzsi3tcxlg 6a55gmvxy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiaa4sgr34vyrq56uvkc4qnobt7xx6wq3uqoh7nm7bi2y 6vvpbqckq

[Winehole23]

USD is ripping


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiekces6z5urybemsr6axtbxpv5lvfm5y6sug4wtsv4js b7kx3vpcu

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn it was ugly today.

[Winehole23]

S&P down nearly 3%

Nasdaq down 4.8%

[ChumpDumper]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

[Winehole23]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?Google and Open AI seeking new funding does not inspire confidence, but today seemed like it was more about interest rate outlook and a hotter than expected jobs report, plus garden variety profit taking

[Winehole23]

(I would imagine some traders can hear oil executives warning that the supply cliff and price spikes are a few weeks away)

[Winehole23]

“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Cahillane said in a recent interview (1). “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.”

The company behind brands like Heinz, Kraft and Philadelphia is now cutting prices (2) on some products that had grown too expensive, increasing promotions and rolling out smaller package sizes at lower price points.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/running-money-kraft-mcdonald-whirlpool-113500450.html

[velik_m]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

Doubtful, the returns don't matter for stock market anymore. All it matters is belief that stock price will go up and other people will buy it. This dip could also be unloading stocks to get capital for these mega IPOs. This was a fear that these mega IPOs will suck out investment money from the market.

But yesterday, at our company's monthly IT meeting, they did say they are setting up our own AI server with open models citing rising subscription costs. So at least their customers are starting to look at ROI.

[Blake]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

I'm gonna guess at some point it'll be government contracts that bail them out

[Winehole23]

challenging environment for small businesses




In May, job openings and hiring plans fell notably to the lowest levels in six years. Twenty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.
A seasonally adjusted net 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 4 points from April, also marking the lowest level since May 2020.
In May, 13% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since December 2016.
Fourteen percent of business owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem, up 5 points from April and the highest reading in the survey’s history.
Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from April and the lowest level since March 2009.
Reports of supply chain disruptions picked up in May, with a shift from those reporting no disruptions to those reporting mild or moderate disruptions. Seventy percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up 6 points from April.
In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem,up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/small-business-hiring-plans-are-the-lowest-in-six-years/

[CosmicCowboy]

So is anyone in here stupid enough to buy Spacex stock at the projected valuation?

[Winehole23]

So is anyone in here stupid enough to buy Spacex stock at the projected valuation?There's a lot of noise about NASDAQ index fund investors piling in, which will probably include a lot of retirement plans and pension funds

I can't imagine they're that dumb but that may well be a failure of imagination on my part

[CosmicCowboy]

There's a lot of noise about NASDAQ index fund investors piling in, which will probably include a lot of retirement plans and pension funds

I can't imagine they're that dumb but that may well be a failure of imagination on my part

I love my starlink at the Colorado house but the projected valuation is ridiculous. He saddled the rocket part with the money hemmoraging X and AI part. The whole thing is worth maybe 700 billion instead of the 1.5 trillion projection, plus Musk still controls 85% of the stock. All the moving parts required to get to the point of orbiting data centers are many years down the road.

[Winehole23]

I love my starlink at the Colorado house but the projected valuation is ridiculous. He saddled the rocket part with the money hemmoraging X and AI part. The whole thing is worth maybe 700 billion instead of the 1.5 trillion projection, plus Musk still controls 85% of the stock. All the moving parts required to get to the point of orbiting data centers are many years down the road.we were supposed to have self-driving cars and people on Mars by now, are those still part of the plan?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ddvus7otnqtlh7fdooxm6qat/bafkreibnmmi34nk2ubobh7xjax7efu6vmkfdqmv36466ulpyk 2upihh5h4


Hi! I'm Bret Rhett Chet, here to tell you why you should buy and hodl SpaceX stonk. For a mere $135/share, you get pro forma tangible book value of $7.85/share, an immediate 94% dilution. New investors are putting up 48% of all capital ever invested in SpaceX in exchange for 4.2% of the shares.https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3mnws7voqyk2q

[Winehole23]

Shareholders have no rights at all; Musk keeps 82.4% of voting power via 10-vote shares, and it's formally a "controlled company" with no independent board majority. Oh, and ~911M insider shares, nearly 2x the public float, unlock two days after the first earnings report, a tsunami of dilution.

[velik_m]

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, highest in three years

Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs contributed to pain for consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense.

The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus though the monthly number was 0.1 percentage point below the April reading.

Inflation climbed above 4% for the first time in three years, though the increase met expectations amid concerns over how much the surge in energy prices would impact the economy. The level was the highest since April 2023 and above the 3.8% reading from April.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html

[CosmicCowboy]

SpaceX reported an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $6.6 billion for the full year 2025, according to its draft IPO prospectus and roadshow materials

Key financial details surrounding this figure include:

Revenue: Total revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, a 33% increase from the previous year

Profitability by Segment: While the company reported a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion due to heavy capital expenditures and the integration of xAI, its Starlink segment was the primary profit driver, generating roughly $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA

AI Segment Losses: The artificial intelligence division (which includes the recently acquired xAI) reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.2 billion in 2025, contributing to the overall net loss despite generating $3.2 billion in revenue

Sooooo 273 X EBITA? Normal in a sale is around 3, max around 10

[ChumpDumper]

I'm going to ask Grok if this is a rug pull.

[Winehole23]

DJIA down 953 points today

[Blake]

DJIA down 953 points today

IF YOU'RE NOT MAKING MONEY OFF THIS STOCK MARKET YOU MUST BE DOING IT WRONG

[CosmicCowboy]

IF YOU'RE NOT MAKING MONEY OFF THIS STOCK MARKET YOU MUST BE DOING IT WRONG

Meh. Nothing to panic about. Was down 30k in two days, back up 10 today. Still up 12% year to date after all that.

[Blake]

Meh. Nothing to panic about. Was down 30k in two days, back up 10 today. Still up 12% year to date after all that.

It's a volatile roller coaster where nothing is predictable except for the usuals. You're basically on your own if you want to take chances.

[Winehole23]

NASDAQ futures down ~2.7% -- 800 points



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidp6gnxucplvx2qmwnkk3buk4dgixpcbdr5sgxahlley idujie2wm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:uzxgq74rsen4ez4yskvkgens/bafkreic4z2j4n3vryd5dz7ufegr76hu6mp36fesqzxs7vdczu v5fxrgrd4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidwgetxtawluc4oatkfkugjzzlypxiq3yi7idkptxkac 75cuadm4a

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidx7gw423qe23almluscsw5okiczx6pthofdjmblrkxp w65gxlhiu

[TSA]

IF YOU'RE NOT MAKING MONEY OFF THIS STOCK MARKET YOU MUST BE DOING IT WRONG

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2071909697276256504

:lol BLAKE CRAMER :lol

[ChumpDumper]

TSA down to one subject he'll post about: other posters.

[Blake]

TSA down to one subject he'll post about: other posters.

If that AI bubble bursts, he may move to Korea permanently.

[ChumpDumper]

People are starting to realize there's no real reward for hyperscaling.

[Blake]

People are starting to realize there's no real reward for hyperscaling.

Communities around hyperscalers are definitely realizing the cost

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:jgmxlsqaj6inwjqx3eowix6i/bafkreieogch4ntvz4rnji5sevmoqxwzkfga522dmbywokoqzc b4mkgi2oi

[Winehole23]

NYT sounds a tentative all-clear



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fjklzghlf7umgjtp74uthd2m/bafkreietu5ubdaads5ap5ikbuojjfzjflwibya6xnszoe3ma5 3u3txvslm

[Winehole23]

NYT today


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6ttureauglogxvbx3sjc2rds/bafkreicn42jiicuvbbc5mzaerm7ghdu2jeesmc6y3w5n4mqjj l5j7htfem



NYT two years ago


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6ttureauglogxvbx3sjc2rds/bafkreiere4gln5uo4vwih3nd433qvnafrpce5skzo762xwwap pcbeqfwle

[velik_m]

US economy added jobs at a slower pace than expected in June

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported that employers added 57,000 jobs in June. That figure was below the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who estimated 110,000 jobs added.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, which was also below the estimate of 4.3%.

Revisions were made to the payroll numbers for the prior two months, with April revised down by 31,000 from a gain of 179,000 to 148,000; while May's report was revised down from 43,000 from a gain of 172,000 to 129,000.

Taken together, employment in April and May was 74,000 jobs lower than previously reported.

...

Private payrolls added 49,000 jobs in June, well below the LSEG poll's prediction of 110,000 jobs. May's private sector job gains were also revised down from a gain of 120,000 to 97,000.

Government payrolls grew by 8,000 jobs last month, while the increase of 52,000 in May was revised down to 32,000 jobs.

The manufacturing sector added 3,000 jobs in June, in line with the estimate of economists polled by LSEG. May's figures were revised down from a gain of 7,000 jobs to a loss of 2,000.

Healthcare continued to add jobs last month, with the sector adding 21,500 jobs in June. That's a slower pace than the average monthly gain of 38,000 over the last 12 months. Hospitals added 9,200 jobs for the month, contributing to a significant portion of the gain.

Leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, which reflected weaker than usual seasonal hiring. The sector has shown little net change in employment over the course of 2026 to date.

...

The number of long-term unemployed, defined as those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.9 million in June but is up 286,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.3% of all unemployed people last month.

The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons also held relatively steady at 4.7 million in June. These individuals would've preferred full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours were reduced, or they weren't able to find full-time jobs.

...



https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-jobs-report-june-2026

[Blake]

When asked about his lucrative stock portfolio, President Donald Trump told reporters: "You know ⁠why ​I'm profiting? Because the ​stock market's going up, everybody's profiting."
But not everybody is sharing in the market's upside.
The top 1% own about 50% of corporate equities and mutual fund shares, according to the most recent Federal Reserve data. The bottom 50% of households collectively hold just 1% of that stock and mutual fund wealth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/trump-says-everybodys-profiting-from-market-gains-but-mostly-the-1percent.html