*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreih5eeabdeth4z7h3uru2sov3tyd7sj46tuyxolzt6xh7 qwxe2kc4m

[Winehole23]

forum inflation hawks nowhere to be seen


The Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation came in under estimates but still hit multiyear highs last month, showing a continued pinch on consumers and likely keeping America’s central bank on the monetary policy sidelines.


The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% month-over-month in April, which was below Dow Jones-surveyed economists’ estimates for 0.5% PCE growth. The year-over-year rate of 3.8% was in line with estimates.
https://youngandtheinvested.com/april-2026-pce-inflation/

[Blake]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJUmEnmWgAAojup?format=jpg&name=900x900

Yeah I've noticed the price going up and the quality going down

[Blake]

forum inflation hawks nowhere to be seen

https://youngandtheinvested.com/april-2026-pce-inflation/

TSA DOING BETTER THAN EVER

* from Korea

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreigruv5aoyra76hk2u4mgsdg7m6uuychhyr77cuc5hwbk z4fbwhd5i


“there have been 17 ‘sell signals’ since ’02, average loss for global stocks over 2-3 months is 2-3% (hit ratio of ~60%), with max drawdowns of 15-20%;”

[Winehole23]

regular folks tired of a rigged system



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieljrbt4m4yzzzm3ueu3a4xgkrllthjq47ajrhvs2kb5 h6vkssym4https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-divide-between-corporate-profits-and-worker-pay-ea4c75bc

[Winehole23]

1Q GDP revised down to +1.6 from 2.0

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibfscad7wr4qux3m32nmtamqyoah4pcoh5susu74pjb7 mxalp2k3a


“.. Even if the conflict were to be resolved today,” he said, effects would hit the food system “well into late summer and the fall,” or even 2027 ..

[Winehole23]

More people in the United States are going hungry now (https://www.npr.org/2025/11/24/nx-s1-5601111/heres-how-hunger-and-food-insecurity-affect-individuals-and-whole-societies) than did during the depths of the pandemic six years ago, according to a new survey from the New York Federal Reserve Bank.


The New York Fed periodically asks Americans if they're having to skip meals, rely on food donations, or receiving federal assistance to buy groceries.


Results from the most recent survey in February show higher levels of food insecurity now than during the summer of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic triggered double-digit unemployment.

[velik_m]

The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000

The S&P 500 closed at a record on the last trading day of May, but only a handful of stocks — focused mostly in the AI area — hit their own all-time highs.

This strange occurrence echoes what happened at the top of dot-com bubble 26 years ago.

On Friday, just 20 of the index members hit a record. Of those 20, just seven were not directly related to artificial intelligence.

Michael Hartnett at Bank of America pointed out in a note to end last week that it was just 20 stocks that hit new highs at the very top of the internet bubble in March 2000.

While the widely followed strategist said the “speculative price action” is likely not over yet, this occurrence is the latest sign that it is nearing. Hartnett believes central banks and rising interest rates will ultimately spell the end, giving clients a “post-bubble” road map.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-something-eerily-similar-to-the-dotcom-bubble-top-in-2000.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifjf75gdoaoffdvc5cgpane7jchzqszcmtcvzfuh6dwj aisrskbiy


GOLDMAN: “.. higher energy prices will continue to erode household spending power for the rest of the year, and we forecast only 0.9% real income growth in 2026 ..

“.. we expect consumer spending growth to decelerate to 1.3% for the remainder of the year, below .. our estimate of potential growth.”

[Winehole23]

jobs market heating up just as the world approaches the energy cliff


Non-farm payrolls +172k vs +88k exp/+115k prev
Pvt payrolls +120k vs +89k exp/+123k prev
Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% exp/4.3% prev
Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.3% MoM est/+0.2% prev

[Winehole23]

interesting full/part-time mix

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiciyxqrvqg7srs4eigxhah45y7guaccbagk7v5cwl2m5 dbe77zixu

[Winehole23]

otherwise a very favorable trend politically, hard to see how Trump pulls out of his tailspin

starting a stupid war and precipitating a global energy shock was stupid, but Trump was cratering out well before that

historically unpopular president and policies


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ccrabc6xdnjx4l7btvynnng4/bafkreiffgzvdouoj56qzzl5lb2rniwnbrymjxhtjzsi3tcxlg 6a55gmvxy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiaa4sgr34vyrq56uvkc4qnobt7xx6wq3uqoh7nm7bi2y 6vvpbqckq

[Winehole23]

USD is ripping


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiekces6z5urybemsr6axtbxpv5lvfm5y6sug4wtsv4js b7kx3vpcu

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn it was ugly today.

[Winehole23]

S&P down nearly 3%

Nasdaq down 4.8%

[ChumpDumper]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

[Winehole23]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?Google and Open AI seeking new funding does not inspire confidence, but today seemed like it was more about interest rate outlook and a hotter than expected jobs report, plus garden variety profit taking

[Winehole23]

(I would imagine some traders can hear oil executives warning that the supply cliff and price spikes are a few weeks away)

[Winehole23]

“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Cahillane said in a recent interview (1). “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.”

The company behind brands like Heinz, Kraft and Philadelphia is now cutting prices (2) on some products that had grown too expensive, increasing promotions and rolling out smaller package sizes at lower price points.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/running-money-kraft-mcdonald-whirlpool-113500450.html

[velik_m]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

Doubtful, the returns don't matter for stock market anymore. All it matters is belief that stock price will go up and other people will buy it. This dip could also be unloading stocks to get capital for these mega IPOs. This was a fear that these mega IPOs will suck out investment money from the market.

But yesterday, at our company's monthly IT meeting, they did say they are setting up our own AI server with open models citing rising subscription costs. So at least their customers are starting to look at ROI.

[Blake]

Have we gotten to the point where Main Street is asking where the ROI is on AI?

I'm gonna guess at some point it'll be government contracts that bail them out

[Winehole23]

challenging environment for small businesses




In May, job openings and hiring plans fell notably to the lowest levels in six years. Twenty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.
A seasonally adjusted net 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 4 points from April, also marking the lowest level since May 2020.
In May, 13% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since December 2016.
Fourteen percent of business owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem, up 5 points from April and the highest reading in the survey’s history.
Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from April and the lowest level since March 2009.
Reports of supply chain disruptions picked up in May, with a shift from those reporting no disruptions to those reporting mild or moderate disruptions. Seventy percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up 6 points from April.
In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem,up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/small-business-hiring-plans-are-the-lowest-in-six-years/

[CosmicCowboy]

So is anyone in here stupid enough to buy Spacex stock at the projected valuation?

[Winehole23]

So is anyone in here stupid enough to buy Spacex stock at the projected valuation?There's a lot of noise about NASDAQ index fund investors piling in, which will probably include a lot of retirement plans and pension funds

I can't imagine they're that dumb but that may well be a failure of imagination on my part

[CosmicCowboy]

There's a lot of noise about NASDAQ index fund investors piling in, which will probably include a lot of retirement plans and pension funds

I can't imagine they're that dumb but that may well be a failure of imagination on my part

I love my starlink at the Colorado house but the projected valuation is ridiculous. He saddled the rocket part with the money hemmoraging X and AI part. The whole thing is worth maybe 700 billion instead of the 1.5 trillion projection, plus Musk still controls 85% of the stock. All the moving parts required to get to the point of orbiting data centers are many years down the road.

[Winehole23]

I love my starlink at the Colorado house but the projected valuation is ridiculous. He saddled the rocket part with the money hemmoraging X and AI part. The whole thing is worth maybe 700 billion instead of the 1.5 trillion projection, plus Musk still controls 85% of the stock. All the moving parts required to get to the point of orbiting data centers are many years down the road.we were supposed to have self-driving cars and people on Mars by now, are those still part of the plan?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ddvus7otnqtlh7fdooxm6qat/bafkreibnmmi34nk2ubobh7xjax7efu6vmkfdqmv36466ulpyk 2upihh5h4


Hi! I'm Bret Rhett Chet, here to tell you why you should buy and hodl SpaceX stonk. For a mere $135/share, you get pro forma tangible book value of $7.85/share, an immediate 94% dilution. New investors are putting up 48% of all capital ever invested in SpaceX in exchange for 4.2% of the shares.https://bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social/post/3mnws7voqyk2q

[Winehole23]

Shareholders have no rights at all; Musk keeps 82.4% of voting power via 10-vote shares, and it's formally a "controlled company" with no independent board majority. Oh, and ~911M insider shares, nearly 2x the public float, unlock two days after the first earnings report, a tsunami of dilution.

[velik_m]

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, highest in three years

Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs contributed to pain for consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense.

The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus though the monthly number was 0.1 percentage point below the April reading.

Inflation climbed above 4% for the first time in three years, though the increase met expectations amid concerns over how much the surge in energy prices would impact the economy. The level was the highest since April 2023 and above the 3.8% reading from April.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html

[CosmicCowboy]

SpaceX reported an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $6.6 billion for the full year 2025, according to its draft IPO prospectus and roadshow materials

Key financial details surrounding this figure include:

Revenue: Total revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion, a 33% increase from the previous year

Profitability by Segment: While the company reported a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion due to heavy capital expenditures and the integration of xAI, its Starlink segment was the primary profit driver, generating roughly $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA

AI Segment Losses: The artificial intelligence division (which includes the recently acquired xAI) reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.2 billion in 2025, contributing to the overall net loss despite generating $3.2 billion in revenue

Sooooo 273 X EBITA? Normal in a sale is around 3, max around 10

[ChumpDumper]

I'm going to ask Grok if this is a rug pull.

[Winehole23]

DJIA down 953 points today

[Blake]

DJIA down 953 points today

IF YOU'RE NOT MAKING MONEY OFF THIS STOCK MARKET YOU MUST BE DOING IT WRONG

[CosmicCowboy]

IF YOU'RE NOT MAKING MONEY OFF THIS STOCK MARKET YOU MUST BE DOING IT WRONG

Meh. Nothing to panic about. Was down 30k in two days, back up 10 today. Still up 12% year to date after all that.

[Blake]

Meh. Nothing to panic about. Was down 30k in two days, back up 10 today. Still up 12% year to date after all that.

It's a volatile roller coaster where nothing is predictable except for the usuals. You're basically on your own if you want to take chances.

[Winehole23]

NASDAQ futures down ~2.7% -- 800 points



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidp6gnxucplvx2qmwnkk3buk4dgixpcbdr5sgxahlley idujie2wm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:uzxgq74rsen4ez4yskvkgens/bafkreic4z2j4n3vryd5dz7ufegr76hu6mp36fesqzxs7vdczu v5fxrgrd4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidwgetxtawluc4oatkfkugjzzlypxiq3yi7idkptxkac 75cuadm4a

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidx7gw423qe23almluscsw5okiczx6pthofdjmblrkxp w65gxlhiu

[TSA]

IF YOU'RE NOT MAKING MONEY OFF THIS STOCK MARKET YOU MUST BE DOING IT WRONG

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2071909697276256504

:lol BLAKE CRAMER :lol

[ChumpDumper]

TSA down to one subject he'll post about: other posters.

[Blake]

TSA down to one subject he'll post about: other posters.

If that AI bubble bursts, he may move to Korea permanently.

[ChumpDumper]

People are starting to realize there's no real reward for hyperscaling.

[Blake]

People are starting to realize there's no real reward for hyperscaling.

Communities around hyperscalers are definitely realizing the cost

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:jgmxlsqaj6inwjqx3eowix6i/bafkreieogch4ntvz4rnji5sevmoqxwzkfga522dmbywokoqzc b4mkgi2oi

[Winehole23]

NYT sounds a tentative all-clear



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fjklzghlf7umgjtp74uthd2m/bafkreietu5ubdaads5ap5ikbuojjfzjflwibya6xnszoe3ma5 3u3txvslm

[Winehole23]

NYT today


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6ttureauglogxvbx3sjc2rds/bafkreicn42jiicuvbbc5mzaerm7ghdu2jeesmc6y3w5n4mqjj l5j7htfem



NYT two years ago


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6ttureauglogxvbx3sjc2rds/bafkreiere4gln5uo4vwih3nd433qvnafrpce5skzo762xwwap pcbeqfwle

[velik_m]

US economy added jobs at a slower pace than expected in June

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported that employers added 57,000 jobs in June. That figure was below the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, who estimated 110,000 jobs added.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, which was also below the estimate of 4.3%.

Revisions were made to the payroll numbers for the prior two months, with April revised down by 31,000 from a gain of 179,000 to 148,000; while May's report was revised down from 43,000 from a gain of 172,000 to 129,000.

Taken together, employment in April and May was 74,000 jobs lower than previously reported.

...

Private payrolls added 49,000 jobs in June, well below the LSEG poll's prediction of 110,000 jobs. May's private sector job gains were also revised down from a gain of 120,000 to 97,000.

Government payrolls grew by 8,000 jobs last month, while the increase of 52,000 in May was revised down to 32,000 jobs.

The manufacturing sector added 3,000 jobs in June, in line with the estimate of economists polled by LSEG. May's figures were revised down from a gain of 7,000 jobs to a loss of 2,000.

Healthcare continued to add jobs last month, with the sector adding 21,500 jobs in June. That's a slower pace than the average monthly gain of 38,000 over the last 12 months. Hospitals added 9,200 jobs for the month, contributing to a significant portion of the gain.

Leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, which reflected weaker than usual seasonal hiring. The sector has shown little net change in employment over the course of 2026 to date.

...

The number of long-term unemployed, defined as those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.9 million in June but is up 286,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.3% of all unemployed people last month.

The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons also held relatively steady at 4.7 million in June. These individuals would've preferred full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours were reduced, or they weren't able to find full-time jobs.

...



https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-jobs-report-june-2026

[Blake]

When asked about his lucrative stock portfolio, President Donald Trump told reporters: "You know ⁠why ​I'm profiting? Because the ​stock market's going up, everybody's profiting."
But not everybody is sharing in the market's upside.
The top 1% own about 50% of corporate equities and mutual fund shares, according to the most recent Federal Reserve data. The bottom 50% of households collectively hold just 1% of that stock and mutual fund wealth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/trump-says-everybodys-profiting-from-market-gains-but-mostly-the-1percent.html

[velik_m]

Lawsuit alleges Freedom Fuel gas stations touted by Trump are selling stolen fuel

A lawsuit filed this month alleges that there’s a simple reason some stations in the Freedom Fuel Network — the chain of discount gas stations promoted by the White House — have been able to sell gas so cheaply: Some $4 million worth of the gas is stolen.

KRSM, the business named in the suit, denies this accusation.

Freedom Fuel stations located around Philadelphia and New Jersey burst into public view in the run-up to the July Fourth holiday, when President Donald Trump posted praise for their discounted pump prices, writing “They are doing this because they love the U.S.A.” The White House later posted a video of drivers filling up at one of the stations and thanking Trump for the low prices — at the time, $3.47 a gallon in honor of the 47th president, though they’ve since crept up.

Neither the White House nor the network’s owners would explain exactly how the stations were able to sell fuel far cheaper than their competitors. The White House told reporters that Freedom Fuel was simply a private company lowering its margins for patriotic reasons and declined to disclose the people behind it — who turned out to be a former New Jersey mayor and NFL special teams coach for the Baltimore Ravens, a GOP donor.

...


https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/28/lawsuit-freedom-fuel-gas-stations-trump-01055248

[Winehole23]

Trump has stolen billions in US appropriations, so this tracks

[velik_m]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZaYyNAXHK4

[velik_m]

Corn and wheat prices jump to highest prices in more than three years

Corn and wheat prices have surged to their highest levels in more than three years. But the forces driving recent rallies for these two crops are notably different.

Wheat futures settled 3.1% higher at 784 cents per bushel on Friday after hitting a high of 790.25 cents, the highest since Feb. 14, 2023 when it traded 797.5. Wheat jumped 12.1% this week, its biggest weekly gain since March 2022. Overall, wheat futures were up more than 54.5% year-to-date, amid escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions in the Black Sea.

Corn futures settled 0.6% higher at 536.5 cents per bushel Friday after hitting a high of 541.25 cents, the highest level since July 28, 2023. Corn gained 5.5% for the week and is up 15.6% in August, on pace for its best month since April 2021 when it rose 19.31%. The contract is up 21.8% year-to date on tighter U.S. supply expectations and strong demand, with constrained Ukrainian exports adding pressure to global supplies.

Corn’s recent rally is largely driven by mounting concerns around the supply of the U.S. crop and a weak outlook, while disruptions to Ukrainian exports continue to add pressure to the global supply.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/28/corn-and-wheat-prices-jump-to-highest-prices-in-more-than-three-years.html

[velik_m]

.

[Winehole23]

war caused fuel/fertilizer inflation that will continue to cycle through the system for the next 18 months or so




In a widely cited report earlier this month, J.P. Morgan analysts warned that global food inflation would hit 5% in the first half of 2027, nearly double what it was in the first half of 2026.
"Price pressures are expected to extend through (the first half of 2027), as crop and price effects are still building and agricultural impacts lag the oceanic peak by 6 to 12 months," they wrote.

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/30/grocery-inflation-prices-war-diesel

[velik_m]

10-year yield hits highest since January 2025 as higher oil prices stoke inflation worries

U.S. Treasury yields traded were little changed on Tuesday after renewed tensions in the Middle East drove global government borrowing costs to their highest point going back to early last year.

The 10-year Treasury note yield — the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — slid less than 1 basis point to 4.756%. The yield hit its highest level since Jan. 14, 2025 earlier in the day.

The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, which tends to track geopolitical events, was down more than 1 basis point at 5.235%.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically moves in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, climbed more than 1 basis point to 4.365%.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/01/bonds-treasury-yields-middle-east-tensions.html

[Winehole23]

Trump caused a global energy crunch by starting a dumb war in the Persian Gulf and has destabilized global trade and security

The reckless, degenerate freaks currently in charge of the USA are giving everybody else the jitters

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:mkue2jvvchc5vxsxz3wfxefr/bafkreigwkqgzgg2nesjztet5s6deneh7psdfszxozjzc7r67d 2hsr2x4la

[velik_m]

10-year Treasury yield jumps to highest since 2023 despite Bessent’s $6 billion bond buyback plan

U.S. yields rose on Wednesday after the Treasury Department unveiled a debt buyback plan that’s triple the normal amount.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up more than 3 basis points at 4.839%. The benchmark rate also hit its highest level since Nov. 1, 2023, when it reached a high of 4.935%.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield was also 3 basis points higher at 5.292%. The 2-year yield — typically more sensitive to near-term policy expectations — was trading up more than 1 basis point at 4.415%.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/treasury-yields-oil-inflation.html

[Winehole23]

^^^ market calls bullshit on Scott Bessent

[velik_m]

Inflation persisted in August, potentially locking in a Fed interest rate hike

Prices for a wide swath of goods and services continued to climb in August, according to a report Friday that raises the specter of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week.

The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month increase at 3.4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus.

However, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI posted a 0.3% monthly gain, or 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast. The core annual rate came in at 2.4%, in line with the estimate.

...

Chairman Kevin Warsh has expressed a commitment to getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target and said recently that if the numbers don’t improve, “we have work to do.” His comments were widely interpreted as advocating a rate hike, though several key officials over the past few weeks have counseled a more patient approach.

“Chair Warsh and others signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues and today’s August report did not deliver that,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “Further, the renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations.”

Nationwide now expects a quarter-point hike next week. The Fed funds rate, a benchmark for multiple consumer loans, is currently pegged in a range of 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026.



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreifcmhsgdhfzdm2df2qkyesjkcifscc6kra5m5ywlfncs 56uct2you


Bessent’s signaling to markets through the buybacks move could prove counter-productive as it was ‘showing some nervousness’ on the part of the US governmenthttps://www.ft.com/content/dd4cc4a0-844e-486a-b99c-b379d457019b

[velik_m]

30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004 as bond market rout continues

Treasury yields were trading at multidecade highs on Thursday, as investor bets on another rate hike from the Federal Reserve mounted.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 6 basis points at 5.462% and reached a 2004 peak. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which is tied to rates on mortgages, rose more than 5 basis points to 5.166% and hit its highest level since July 2007. The yield on the 2-year note rose slightly to 4.897% and remained close to a 2023 high.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/us-treasury-yields-bonds-fed-inflation.html

[velik_m]

Mortgage rates top 7%, dealing a further blow to the frozen housing market

Mortgage rates reached a grim milestone this week, topping 7% for the first time since January 2025 and reaching their highest level during either of Donald Trump’s presidential terms.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.03% this week, up from 6.95% last week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac.

It’s the fifth-straight week of rising mortgage rates, putting a deeper squeeze on housing affordability. Higher rates mean larger monthly payments and less purchasing power for buyers.
...



https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/24/economy/mortgage-rate-tops-7-percent

[Winehole23]

the US economy is doing just fine but Trump keeps mashing buttons (tariffs, trade wars, Persian Gulf War) that make prices go up

as Biden found out, the thermostatic popular reaction to inflation is neither restrained nor demonstrably connected to underlying (aggregate) economic conditions

lol

[velik_m]

Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in September, pointing to a surprising soft spot in the labor market and broader economy.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 29,000 for the month while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for job growth of 84,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

In addition to the weakness in September, the August jobs count was revised lower to reflect a gain of 133,000 while July switched from a gain to a loss as payrolls fell by 10,000. The revisions in total showed 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

Market reaction was swift to the report, with traders interpreting the soft jobs numbers as good news as they likely further cemented the Federal Reserve staying put at its October meeting.
...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html

[velik_m]

A gut punch in Ohio: Nearly 1,400 laid off at truck factory just days before Trump rally

...

The layoffs — occurring just three days before President Donald Trump’s rally on Saturday at a nearby high school — were large enough to basically erase an entire year of job growth in the greater Dayton, Ohio, area. And they are one reason why Bos, 30, plans to spend the final weeks before the November election canvassing votes for Democrats.

Asked how many times he had voted for Trump, Bos held up three tattooed fingers. But he said he’s done with the president.

“Something has to change politically in this country,” said Bos, a member of the United Auto Workers who identifies as a centrist. “Seems like it just kept getting worse and worse and worse.”

...

His broad tariffs failed to boost demand and the plant’s former owner, International Motors, chose to offload the facility. And Trump’s major legislative achievement — the One Big Beautiful Bill — contributed little to people’s take-home pay, even as it temporarily stripped taxes from tips and overtime.

“We weren’t getting a lot of overtime because of the economy,” said Marianne Donnelly, who drove a forklift at the factory. “There just wasn’t any to be had, very little to be had.”

Meanwhile, costs have kept climbing. Donnelly said she buys marked-down beef, pork and chicken and stows them in her freezer. She canceled her subscriptions to The Columbus Dispatch and The Washington Post newspapers, along with some streaming services.

Laid-off workers like Donnelly say they expect to be rehired in six to 12 months by Roshel, a Canadian manufacturer of armored vehicles that is buying the plant. Roshel said in a statement that it’s “working with everyone involved not only to protect the current workforce, but to more than double it over the coming years through a phased process.”

...



https://apnews.com/article/trump-ohio-midterms-factory-workers-7c8dc7901de15a22a909bcd9c8b78a3e

[velik_m]

Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022

September’s producer price index came in much hotter than economists forecast on Thursday, underscoring the continued inflationary pressure from energy amid the U.S. war with Iran.

The measure of underlying inflation pressures climbed 1.3% in September and 6.3% on an annual basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That marked the largest monthly and annual gains since March 2022 and December 2022, respectively.

Both readings topped expectations of economists polled by Dow Jones, who forecast an advance of 0.6% on the month and 5.5% annually.

Energy drove a sizable chunk of those increases as the Middle East conflict curtailed oil supply and sent prices surging. The so-called core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices from the wholesaler inflation index, added 0.7% on the month and 5% over the 12-month period.

But there are signs that soaring energy prices are having downstream effects on other categories. The BLS said in Thursday’s release that almost half of September’s increase in processed goods for immediate demand was connected to the rise in diesel fuel prices.
...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/september-producer-price-index-retail-sales-data.html

[Blake]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/september-producer-price-index-retail-sales-data.html

That's all on Trump and the Rs

[velik_m]

China cuts US Treasury holdings to 18-year low in August as American debt fears mount

China has further reduced its holdings of US Treasuries to an 18-year low in August, as it continued to diversify its foreign exchange reserves amid rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over Washington’s fiscal outlook.

China’s holdings fell to US$590.7 billion in August, down US$27.3 billion from US$618 billion in July, data released by the US Treasury Department showed on Friday. That marked the lowest total recorded since August 2008, when its holdings tumbled to US$573.7 billion, according to Chinese financial data provider Wind.

China joined Japan, the largest foreign holder of US debt, in offloading the bonds that month. Japan cut its holdings to US$1.07 trillion in August by selling US$35.6 billion from US$1.1 trillion in July.
...



https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3371237/china-cuts-us-treasury-holdings-18-year-low-august-american-debt-fears-mount?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

[Winehole23]

reinsurers worried about mispriced market risk for climate change

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/697b3c8cf1bdde2c6ff1b5d5/t/6acebb5992f73c3954b746e5/1791933273139/Insurance+and+Reinsurance+Memo.pdf

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ol5xm2zrcdekoeuk4q46jdyr/bafkreiesmblscchuxsltyrntz3y32iabccdjyrr73tmgfd5vy ujowgzx2q

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:saqzqcndhpqdc3gk22f5slke/bafkreicjvfhohlfflyyagrmyee4qrtxwv3c2zmyvhznjhmlx2 aieeey5a4

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:saqzqcndhpqdc3gk22f5slke/bafkreieh5anhomehg3mm6mhig4ubwfzpjti52jr6wkpebarf4 2x3q4b74u

[Winehole23]

https://www.openmarketsinstitute.org/publications/report-brace-for-impact-protecting-people-and-the-economy-when-the-ai-bubble-burst

[velik_m]

Gold is Now the Top U.S. Export

Normally, America’s highest value exports are either oil, pharmaceuticals, or aircraft and their parts. Not now. Starting in October 2025, the value of gold exports has topped all other categories almost every month. For information on U.S. nonmonetary gold exports through December 2025, go to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IEAXGG

That’s not just because the price of gold reached record high prices. In February 2026, the tons of gold exported may have set an all-time record.

The majority of gold exports are going to Switzerland, almost certainly to the refiners there. The second greatest quantity is going to Hong Kong, which is the global destination for gold going to China. The third greatest quantity of exported gold is going to the United Kingdom, where the London Bullion Market Association is the world’s largest gold trading exchange.

...



https://www.numismaticnews.net/gold-now-top-u-s-export