*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[Blake]

OH NO THE ECONOMISTS WHO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY WRONG WITH GOOD DATA ARE WORRIED THEY'LL CONTINUE TO BE WRONG WITH BAD DATA

Idiot, they haven't been wrong because:

1. TACO, and/ or
2. We haven't gotten to the place yet where whatever tariffs and staffing woes due to deportations we end up with haven't fully kicked in.

You couldn't be more of a retard on this.

[TSA]

Idiot, they haven't been wrong because:

1. TACO, and/ or
2. We haven't gotten to the place yet where whatever tariffs and staffing woes due to deportations we end up with haven't fully kicked in.

You couldn't be more of a retard on this.

MASSIVE INFLATION IS COMING
HUGE INFLATION IS COMING
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IT'S COMING I PROMISE
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OKAY MAYBE NOT, BUT HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF STAGFLATION?
IT'S COMING I PROMISE
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[ChumpDumper]

MASSIVE EPSTEIN FILE DROP IS COMING
HUGE EPSTEIN FILE DROP IS COMING
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IT'S COMING I PROMISE
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OKAY MAYBE NOT, BUT HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF QANON?
IT'S COMING I PROMISE
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[Blake]

MASSIVE EPSTEIN FILE DROP IS COMING
HUGE EPSTEIN FILE DROP IS COMING
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IT'S COMING I PROMISE
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OKAY MAYBE NOT, BUT HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF QANON?
IT'S COMING I PROMISE
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:lol

[Blake]

"...In a joint letter released last week, 23 Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economists warned that Trump’s plans for tariffs, tax cuts and an immigration crackdown — including detaining and deporting millions of people — would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.” More than anything, they wrote, Trump would undermine the rule of law and political certainty, “the most important determinants of economic success.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/economy-if-trump-wins-second-term-could-mean-hardship-for-americans-rcna177807

Back in October. Nowhere in there is a date on when it will happen. It's also clear it's dependant on TACO or not.

You gonna make fun of those guys too because you have the felon's back?

[TSA]

:lol

I've got Chump following me around tailspinning in every thread :lmao

[TSA]

"...In a joint letter released last week, 23 Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economists warned that Trump’s plans for tariffs, tax cuts and an immigration crackdown — including detaining and deporting millions of people — would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.” More than anything, they wrote, Trump would undermine the rule of law and political certainty, “the most important determinants of economic success.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/economy-if-trump-wins-second-term-could-mean-hardship-for-americans-rcna177807

Back in October. Nowhere in there is a date on when it will happen. It's also clear it's dependant on TACO or not.

You gonna make fun of those guys too because you have the felon's back?

None of what they predicted last year has come to fruition. Do you ever think before you post you fucking idiot? :lol

[ChumpDumper]

I've got Chump following me around tailspinning in every thread :lmao

You believed in the Epstein files and QAnon.

You.:lmao

[Winehole23]

final solution endorsed by POTUS


The president pulled back his negotiators from ceasefire talks this week after the US deemed Hamas neither “coordinated” nor “acting in good faith.” Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, said he was looking into “alternative options” for getting the hostages out.


And Trump, rather than urging an immediate return to the negotiating table, signaled Friday it was time for Israel to escalate its military campaign, even as images of starving children in Gaza lead to mounting global outrage.


“I think they want to die, and it’s very, very bad,” Trump said of Hamas before leaving for a weekend trip to Scotland. “It got to be to a point where you’re gonna have to finish the job.”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/25/politics/donald-trump-israel-hamas-war

[TSA]

"...In a joint letter released last week, 23 Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economists warned that Trump’s plans for tariffs, tax cuts and an immigration crackdown — including detaining and deporting millions of people — would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.” More than anything, they wrote, Trump would undermine the rule of law and political certainty, “the most important determinants of economic success.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/economy-if-trump-wins-second-term-could-mean-hardship-for-americans-rcna177807

Back in October. Nowhere in there is a date on when it will happen. It's also clear it's dependant on TACO or not.

You gonna make fun of those guys too because you have the felon's back?

https://x.com/apralky/status/1949882462185848979

[SnakeBoy]

https://x.com/apralky/status/1949882462185848979

:lol

[ChumpDumper]

https://x.com/apralky/status/1949882462185848979

Raising taxes raises tax revenue.

[Blake]

It's like you guys don't think this will lead to higher prices in the long run. And for what? Cuz America?

[DMX7]

https://x.com/apralky/status/1949882462185848979

Many institutional investors pulled their client's funds from the stock market shortly after "liberation day" and never got fully invest back in so they've missed a historic market rally.

This is the problem with letting political biasas blind one's decision making.

[DMX7]

It's like you guys don't think this will lead to higher prices in the long run. And for what? Cuz America?

I don't think it will be nearly as bad as predicted. Would you be complaining if you had to pay higher income taxes instead? People just don't like taxes at all and it's one of many reasons we have a massive deficit.

[ChumpDumper]

Many institutional investors pulled their client's funds from the stock market shortly after "liberation day" and never got fully invest back in so they've missed a historic market rally. Which ones?

Let's see the numbers.

[Blake]

I don't think it will be nearly as bad as predicted. Would you be complaining if you had to pay higher income taxes instead? People just don't like taxes at all and it's one of many reasons we have a massive deficit.

I would like the super rich to pay their fair share in taxes instead of just sending it down the line to the poor again. This time it's just packaged in a way that makes you feel like America won which hits you in your patriot feels.

[TSA]

Many institutional investors pulled their client's funds from the stock market shortly after "liberation day" and never got fully invest back in so they've missed a historic market rally.

This is the problem with letting political biasas blind one's decision making.

Blake is still pissed that he ignored multiple people here telling him it was an amazing opportunity to buy. Even Trump told him to buy and Blake did nothing but whine on ST.

[TSA]

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1950223054858015218

https://x.com/cnnbrk/status/1950206770644754597

https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1950214322958835784

"muh experts"

[Blake]

Blake is still pissed that he ignored multiple people here telling him it was an amazing opportunity to buy. Even Trump told him to buy and Blake did nothing but whine on ST.

:lol tsa didn't even buy anything during the "amazing opportunity" that Trump told him about. Whine moar.

[Blake]

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1950223054858015218

https://x.com/cnnbrk/status/1950206770644754597

https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1950214322958835784

"muh experts"

Jesus Christ you're just flat out stupid.

You're quoting "consumer confidence"

[koriwhat]

:lol tsa didn't even buy anything during the "amazing opportunity" that Trump told him about. Whine moar.

Speculation only... it's all you got you worthless sob. :lol

[TSA]

Jesus Christ you're just flat out stupid.

You're quoting "consumer confidence"

"real world finance guy" making himself look like a fucking idiot again :rollin

Do you not remember anything from when you laughed at the Fed survey and I had to educate you on how those surveys help shape the Fed reaction with interest rates? Consumer confidence is also a big factor that guides what the Fed does with interest rates.

[TSA]

:lol tsa didn't even buy anything during the "amazing opportunity" that Trump told him about. Whine moar.

^^^
"real world finance guy" didn't take advantage of the best buying opportunity since Covid and he'll be forever butthurt about it :rollin

[Winehole23]

I don't think it will be nearly as bad as predicted. Would you be complaining if you had to pay higher income taxes instead? People just don't like taxes at all and it's one of many reasons we have a massive deficit.suddenly

pro-tax Republicans



~"your taxes were going up either way, why are you bitching?~


sounds like a snappy comeback, but it's not a very good political pitch

[Blake]

"real world finance guy" making himself look like a fucking idiot again :rollin

Do you not remember anything from when you laughed at the Fed survey and I had to educate you on how those surveys help shape the Fed reaction with interest rates? Consumer confidence is also a big factor that guides what the Fed does with interest rates.

Great, so if consumer confidence is that high, why isn't the Fed dropping the rate?

Lol Trump is pressuring the shit of of them and they still won't. They're still afraid of oncoming inflation.

[velik_m]

Divided Fed holds key interest rate steady, defying Trump’s demands for aggressive cuts

WASHINGTON – A divided Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady, despite a barrage of criticism from President Donald Trump and dissents from two top officials.

The Federal Open Market Committee, the group that sets the overnight borrowing rate, voted 9-2 to stay on hold. The federal funds rate will continue to be set in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. The level sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but influences a slew of other rates across the economy.

...

“Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,” the document stated. “The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

At the June meeting, the committee had a more optimistic view, saying the economy “continued to expand at a solid pace.”

The Wednesday statement said uncertainty about conditions “remains elevated,” also a less upbeat assessment from June, which noted that uncertainty had “diminished but remains elevated.”

A slower economy would boost the argument for lower interest rates, though the committee stopped short of endorsing that view.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/fed-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-as-expected.html

[Blake]

Great, so if consumer confidence is that high, why isn't the Fed dropping the rate?

Lol Trump is pressuring the shit of of them and they still won't. They're still afraid of oncoming inflation.

Crickets

[Winehole23]

Looks like the ADP jobs numbers were better than BLS last month and May, I won't hold my breath for TSA's apology

The last three months averaged ~35,000 new jobs/month, job creation through July 2025 is the worst since 2020


“The biggest change in this report is that the Labor Department said it had significantly overestimated job gains in May and June. Job creation in those months was revised lower by 258,000 jobs — bringing June job creation down to 14,000 and May to 19,000, both very low levels”https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/jobs-report-july-unemployment/

[Winehole23]

it's like Biden (and Trump before him and Obama before him) with the backward revisions

the underlying economy is notably weaker under Trump, though

[Winehole23]

Republicans can't build anything, they just know how to fuck shit up

[Winehole23]

three months of bad jobs numbers following a big shift in US trade policy

correlation is not causation, but the correlation is striking so far

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2siuzncztvvgr47k7e7esvim/bafkreifuxkp5i4ez7ym65dbktdv6vshvk3mut2lzdzcsvxd5y gn27geola@jpeg

[ChumpDumper]

:lol like clockwork

He rushed to ST to post the numbers from the absolutely useless ADP report claiming 33,000 private sector jobs lost when in reality private sector gained 74,000. Poor fella thought he finally got one.

What happened to all your jobs, bro?

[ChumpDumper]

Hiring Defied Expectations in June, With 147,000 New Jobs

U.S. job growth continued at a steady pace last month, surprising economists who had predicted a slowdown in hiring amid uncertainty over trade and fiscal policy.

The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department reported Thursday, above the gain of 110,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected.

The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of U.S. households, fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

Revisions showed that hiring was stronger in prior months than previously thought. The number of jobs added in April and May was a combined 16,000 higher than prior estimates.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hiring-defied-expectations-in-june-with-147-000-new-jobs/ar-AA1HTO95?ocid=winp2fptaskbarent&cvid=23d397cbd21447b1b6cd7999b6cc6d33&ei=9

:lol winehole

Why did the report defy expectations so hard, bro?

[velik_m]

U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower

Nonfarm payroll growth was slower than expected in July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, raising potential trouble signs for the U.S. labor market as President Donald Trump ramps up tariffs.

Job growth totaled a seasonally adjusted 73,000 for the month, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels.

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with the forecast.

The June total came down from the previously stated 147,000, while the May count fell to just 19,000, revised down by 125,000.

...

The household survey, which is used to compile the unemployment rate, was even worse than the establishment survey of total payrolls gains. That showed a decline of 260,000 workers, with the participation rate edging down to 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022.

A more encompassing unemployment indicator that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.9%, its highest since March.

In addition, long-term unemployment heated up. Average weeks unemployed jumped to 24.1, the highest level since April 2022, while the level of those out of work for more than 27 weeks to 1.82 million, the most since December 2021 and about one-quarter of all the unemployed.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/jobs-report-july-2025.html

[Winehole23]

Notable (https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3lvdzfe5fes2k): despite account for just 6.8% of employment, state/local education payrolls generated 42% of the downward revision for May/June.

[velik_m]

Donald Trump Fires Person Behind Jobs Numbers After They're Revised Down

...
"I was just informed that our Country's 'Jobs Numbers' are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala's chances of Victory," Trump posted on Truth Social, referring to former Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. "This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers."

He added: "I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can't be manipulated for political purposes.
...



https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-job-numbers-revised-down-fires-appointee-2107768

That's one way to fix the job numbers. Got to keep reality out of MAGA world and everything will be fine...

[Winehole23]

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-job-numbers-revised-down-fires-appointee-2107768

That's one way to fix the job numbers. Got to keep reality out of MAGA world and everything will be fine...fudging stats that the Fed bases interest rates on could lead to economic crises of various kinds

[Winehole23]

a lot of people depend on good US data, but Trump just wants shred and delete it if it doesn't flatter him

[velik_m]

Las Vegas tourism drops sharply as some visitors claim 'casinos are empty' amid rising costs

Tourism in Las Vegas continues to decline as many visitors are calling out the once-packed Sin City for its high prices.

The latest statistics from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) show that only 3.1 million people visited in June, which is down 11.3% compared to last year.

The hotel industry is feeling the burn of fewer visitors, with occupancy dropping 6.5% while average daily room rates have lowered to $163.64 – down 6.6%, according to the LVCVA.

...



https://www.foxnews.com/travel/las-vegas-tourism-drops-sharply-some-visitors-claim-casinos-empty-amid-rising-costs

[Winehole23]

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/las-vegas-tourism-drops-sharply-some-visitors-claim-casinos-empty-amid-rising-costsCanadians love to gamble, wonder where they're going instead

[Winehole23]

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-job-numbers-revised-down-fires-appointee-2107768

That's one way to fix the job numbers. Got to keep reality out of MAGA world and everything will be fine...


"Since the first messenger who told Tigranes that Lucullus was coming had his head cut off for his pains, no one else would tell him anything, and so he sat in ignorance while the fires of war were blazing around him, giving ear only to those who flattered him."

-- Plutarch, ~100 A.D.

[Winehole23]

ISTANBUL—Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan replaced the head of the state statistics agency weeks after it reported record inflation, which added to anger in the country over its economic woes (https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-erdogan-inflation-currency-lira-protests-economy-11638477508?mod=article_inline), and appointed another member of the ruling party as justice minister.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-fires-statistics-chief-after-record-inflation-11643456492

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlxjrb5qokr6ntxusrh4ky3k/bafkreiez25rveqmkt7v7fygyncmxmflo46z255p6ykqt7o3tg ub2cmoqeq@jpeg

[Spurs Homer]

if only someone had warned the usa voters about;

dictatorship/authoritarianism
fascism
rapists - rape kids - sometimes they rape children -like in that katie johnson case where a 13 year old was brutally raped by epstein and his best friend pedophile donny
corruption
treason
lies
strongarming of - universities/stripping education dept
law firms, banks, other countries...

if only someone had warned the "honest broker" voters that it might be dangerous to hire a convicted felon/rapist/fraudster/liar/pedophile/criminal

...

[velik_m]

The Next Time Some Idiot Tries to Tell You the GOP is “The Party of Business”

...
Bill Clinton left George W. Bush a $128 billion surplus (after 4 consecutive years of budget surpluses): Bush immediately squandered it with a massive tax cut for billionaires and two criminal wars.

Just in 2022, President Biden decreased federal spending by $550 billion and reduced the deficit by $1.4 trillion — the largest one-year deficit drop in American history — all while creating five times more jobs in 2 years than the last three Republican presidents combined.

If not for the Reagan, Bush, and Trump tax cuts for billionaires and the two wars George W. Bush lied us into, our national debt could today be close to zero instead of over $30 trillion.

To add injury to insult, Republicans destroy small businesses while propping up giant monopolies.

The core of American business and thus the livelihood of American communities before Reagan was small- and medium-sized companies.

Small- and medium-sized companies built America and brought us the American middle class, the first and largest middle class in the world. But in 1983, when Reagan ordered the DOJ, FTC, and SEC to stop enforcing anti-trust laws dating back to the Sherman Act of 1890, giant corporations began a relentless campaign to destroy locally owned companies.

...




https://hartmannreport.com/p/chapter-15-the-next-time-some-idiot

[Blake]

if only someone had warned the usa voters about;

dictatorship/authoritarianism
fascism
rapists - rape kids - sometimes they rape children -like in that katie johnson case where a 13 year old was brutally raped by epstein and his best friend pedophile donny
corruption
treason
lies
strongarming of - universities/stripping education dept
law firms, banks, other countries...

if only someone had warned the "honest broker" voters that it might be dangerous to hire a convicted felon/rapist/fraudster/liar/pedophile/criminal

...

They still don't care.

[florige]

They still don't care.


I literally know of a person who’s about to get later off from Northrop Grumman because of all these cuts yet he still thinks Trump is doing a great job . Like how stupid do you have to be…

[velik_m]

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1952159302002802758

We'll be getting new numbers soon, hopefully ones not grounded in reality, so that they don't disturb the MAGA world.

[Blake]

I literally know of a person who’s about to get later off from Northrop Grumman because of all these cuts yet he still thinks Trump is doing a great job . Like how stupid do you have to be…

It's insane

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2rrp7amblhg3xoly5n5huiqv/bafkreibjil37doaoprdux6fg6m5wdz4aude67rc74p4und2qv 732ga5zq4@jpeg

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2rrp7amblhg3xoly5n5huiqv/bafkreibjil37doaoprdux6fg6m5wdz4aude67rc74p4und2qv 732ga5zq4@jpeg

Couldn't be any clearer unless you're a brain dead maga tard.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Recession wont happen until 2026 and it won't be worse than the 2022 mini recession/stagflation under Biden and the Dem trifecta when stocks tumbled while groceries doubled and gas went up to $5.20/gallon.

[ChumpDumper]

We might already be there according to G-S.

1952035275405746235

https://x.com/SullyCNBC/status/1952035275405746235

[SupremeGuy]

Holy fuck. :lol

[Blake]

Recession wont happen until 2026 and it won't be worse than the 2022 mini recession/stagflation under Biden and the Dem trifecta when stocks tumbled while groceries doubled and gas went up to $5.20/gallon.

Because of covid. This currently is because of an mentally ill criminal. And you guys still will forever love him.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Because of the Biden trifecta.

fixed

[Blake]

fixed

Nope

[Winehole23]

services employment down

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreic3q6hg4xvn565jq3oaq5y72dagc26dqb5tjxsgqz6ls p5zh7ojji@jpeg

new business orders down

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreiep7wohtzyuhrvqfqvv4ojvkgdwk46lmdhz5o2fcr76m rhpzc6o4y@jpeg

core PCE a touch hot, pros say the ISM number implies a ~4% annualized rate of inflation

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreid23niifjavcetyvmtav4w6zf6sa3ukqs7kizzprlh7v 3r5lrbamm@jpeg

[velik_m]

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1952494468990451890

[Spurs Homer]

“What you are seeing…and what you are hearing…is NOT what is really happening!”


whew! Thank God!

[velik_m]

US services activity flatlined in July, ISM data shows

(Reuters) -U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly flatlined in July with little change in orders and a further weakening in employment even as input costs climbed by the most in nearly three years, underscoring the ongoing drag of uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policy on businesses.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 last month from 50.8 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would rise to 51.5. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

Economists say businesses continue to struggle to digest the aggressive tariffs President Donald Trump is imposing on goods imported from abroad. Last week Trump, ahead of a self-imposed deadline of August 1, issued a barrage of notices informing scores of trading partners of higher import taxes set to be imposed on their exports to the U.S.
...

Inflation until now has largely remained moderate because businesses have been selling merchandise accumulated before import duties came into effect, but data last week showed prices in some categories of goods like home furnishings and recreational gear have begun rising briskly. More benign inflation from the services sector has helped keep overall inflation in check, but the ISM data brings into question whether that trend will continue or further fan concerns about the emergence of stagflation.

...



https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-services-activity-flatlined-july-140510946.html

[Winehole23]

Recession wont happen until 2026 and it won't be worse than the 2022 mini recession/stagflation under Biden and the Dem trifecta when stocks tumbled while groceries doubled and gas went up to $5.20/gallon.you're daydreaming again

short of utter annihilation there is no rational limit to how much worse things can get

your party put a petulant sadist in charge, good luck!

[velik_m]

Analysis-Sliding US rig count outpaces efficiency gains, threatening onshore oil output

HOUSTON (Reuters) -The falling number of oil and gas rigs deployed across the United States is reaching a level that would indicate onshore crude output from the world's top producer could fall in early 2026.

U.S. energy companies are producing record amounts of oil, much of it from onshore shale fields. New techniques and technology, like longer lateral wells, automation and more powerful equipment, have driven productivity gains across the industry that have allowed oil companies to pump more with fewer rigs and less capital.

But the number of rigs working in U.S. shale fields has almost fallen so low - and is projected to keep falling - that those improvements will not be enough to keep onshore U.S. production rising, or even steady in some basins, analysts say.

The anticipated decline comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to raise oil and gas output, and as OPEC+ lifts its production targets in an attempt to take back market share from the U.S. and other rival producers.

...

The Permian rig count last fell by one in the week to August 1, to 259, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes.

"We have seen a 25% improvement over the last few years in rig efficiency, but the rig count has fallen over 30% over that same period. Put simply, the rig count declines have begun to outpace drilling efficiency gains," said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs.

"This is a recent development," he added.

Market intelligence firm Energy Aspects expects the Permian rig count to continue falling, slipping below its own modeled 255 threshold for steady production, early next year. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees that basin's rig count falling to 245 in early 2026 as prices fall due to higher OPEC+ output.

...

"If the rig count drops don't turn around soon, we're going to see U.S. production declines well into 2026, including in the Permian basin," said Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones. He anticipates Permian production, which currently stands at 6.55 million bpd, to fall by 150,000 bpd to 6.25 million bpd in 2026, due to fewer rigs and completions as well as a degradation in well productivity.

Declines in oil production as a result of a falling rig count will take six to nine months to show, due to the time it takes to drill and complete wells, analysts said.

Novi Labs expects Permian production will fall slightly by the end of the year, before dipping into the sub-6.5 million bpd range in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026 at 6.55 million bpd. The EIA projects output to average 6.53 million bpd in 2025, before edging down to 6.5 million bpd in 2026.

...



https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/analysis-sliding-us-rig-count-outpaces-efficiency-gains-threatening-onshore-oil-output/ar-AA1JW2TR

[velik_m]

Almost 2 million Americans are collecting unemployment in highest figures since pandemic times

Almost two million Americans are collecting unemployment in the highest figures since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The number of Americans who have been continuously receiving unemployment benefits rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in late July, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

This unemployment number hasn’t been this high since November 2021.

The number of new unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 climbed by 7,000 to 226,000. It’s slightly above the 219,000 new claims economists had predicted, but it remains in the healthy range.
...



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/unemployment-highest-pandemic-jobs-report-b2804119.html

[Blake]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/unemployment-highest-pandemic-jobs-report-b2804119.html

Desirable factory and farm hand jobs should be available really soon!

[Spurs Homer]

Desirable factory and farm hand jobs should be available really soon!

Only if you have one of those backs that only breaks down - upon death!

...and only if you don't mind being owned by those farmers the gubmint needs to look out for!

[Winehole23]

Desirable factory and farm hand jobs should be available really soon!Farms and hotels might be able to source workers from internment camps and Medicare rolls

[Blake]

Farms and hotels might be able to source workers from internment camps and Medicare rolls

At current federal minimum wage standards no doubt

[velik_m]

Trump administration says Fannie and Freddie will go public by end of year and raise $30 billion

The Trump administration is looking to sell its stock holdings in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through a public offering that it believes could raise $30 billion and begin later this year.

The plans being discussed within the administration, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, could value these firms at a combined $500 billion or more and involve a 5% to 15% sale of Fannie and Freddie shares.

Still being debated is whether the mortgage giants would go public as two separate entities or one combined company. The president is still weighing all of his options.

...

Many housing experts and critics alike worry that fully privatizing these firms will cause investors to view their mortgage obligations as more risky, creating a ripple effect across the US housing market that would raise mortgage rates for homebuyers.

Making such a guarantee explicit without the government's ownership would require an act of Congress. That kind of federal guarantee could even prompt mortgage rates to fall, benefiting borrowers, but "political gridlock makes this unlikely," Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi noted in June.

...



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-says-fannie-and-freddie-will-go-public-by-end-of-year-and-raise-30-billion-172847162.html

[Winehole23]

all Trump knows how to do is fuck things up

[velik_m]

It’s Beginning to Smell a Lot Like Stagflation

...
There is almost complete consensus among economists that tariffs are inflationary. As far as I can tell, the only dissenters are economists who work, directly or de facto, for the Trump administration. After all, a tariff is basically a selective sales tax imposed on goods produced abroad. Is there any scenario under which tariffs wouldn’t raise consumer prices?

The only way tariffs could fail to be inflationary is if foreign producers were to slash their selling prices in an attempt to retain their market share. There may be some foreign companies doing this, but for the most part it just isn’t happening. To keep consumer prices from rising in the face of a 15-point rise in average tariff rates, which is more or less what Trump has done, foreign companies would have to cut their dollar prices by more than 13 percent. In fact, import prices excluding tariffs have risen under Trump

...

So is inflation happening? So far there have only been hints of tariff-driven inflation in official data. What seems to have happened so far is that U.S. companies rushed to import and stockpile foreign products before the Trump tariffs went into full effect, and are still to a large extent selling out of those stocks. Also, many companies were reluctant to raise prices, alienating customers, as long as there was a chance that Trump would make deals that brought tariffs significantly down again.

That, however, isn’t happening. It’s true that many of Trump’s tariffs are clearly illegal, and the courts could force him to reverse them. But I wouldn’t get my hopes up. And if the tariffs are here to stay, we can expect them to be passed on to buyers.

...
Contrary to what many people believe, tariffs don’t necessarily lead to high unemployment. America had a high average tariff even before Smoot-Hawley — 15.8 percent in 1929 — but the unemployment rate in 1929 was under 3 percent.

The reason many economists believe that Trump’s tariffs will raise unemployment isn’t so much their level as the uncertainty they create. How can you expect businesses to make long-term investments when they don’t know whether they’ll be facing 10 percent or 35 percent tariffs a year or two from now?

You might argue that tariff uncertainty will abate now that Trump has made “deals” with some of our major trading partners. But these aren’t formal, signed trade agreements. And Trump’s claims about what other countries have agreed to — like his insistence that Europe has promised him a $600 billion slush fund and “I can do anything I want with it” — are contradicted by the countries themselves. So tariff uncertainty remains high. And the uncertainty created by mass arrests and deportations, which is equally likely to hurt business, is just getting started.

...



https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-beginning-to-smell-a-lot-like

[velik_m]

Trump says he’s nominating E.J. Antoni as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner

...

Antoni is the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation and has been a longtime critic of the BLS.

“I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Highly Respected Economist, Dr. E.J. Antoni, as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday evening.

“Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE,” Trump wrote. “I know E.J. Antoni will do an incredible job in this new role. Congratulations E.J.!”

The Senate would have to confirm Antoni’s nomination for him to take over BLS, which is a division of the Labor Department.

Antoni was a contributor to Project 2025, the controversial conservative policy blueprint designed to help Trump and his officials achieve a raft of goals in his second term in the White House.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-antoni-bls-statistics.html

New reality will be manufactured, crisis averted.

[Winehole23]

"don't piss on my shoes and tell me it's raining"

[TSA]

:lol many economists from both sides are warning of massive inflation :lol

https://x.com/baldwin_daniel_/status/1955248441895887149

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1955256236485607485

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/1955258615607996458

[ChumpDumper]

:lol it's always fun to see TSA drop talking point after talking point and reduce himself to one perceived W he puts on repeat.

He has shut the fuck up about Epstein forever unless we call him out and make him all cute and defensive, for example.

[velik_m]

US Hits Highest Layoffs Since COVID

U.S. layoffs surged in July to their highest level since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In July, there were 62,075 job cuts announced, according to a report by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That's a 29 percent jump from June and 140 percent higher than the 25,885 announced in July 2024.

The July figure is well above the post-pandemic average for the month (23,584 between 2021 and 2024) and slightly higher than the past decade's July average of 60,398. It pushes the 2025 total to 806,383 layoffs—a 75 percent increase compared with the same period last year and already 6 percent higher than all of 2024. It's the highest January-to-July figure since 2020, when pandemic shutdowns drove layoffs above 1.8 million.

...


https://www.newsweek.com/us-hits-highest-layoffs-since-covid-2111794

[ChumpDumper]

THE BIDEN LAYOFFS

[TSA]

Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq pace for record closes as Fed rate cut bets jump after CPI inflation report

US stocks moved higher on Tuesday as Wall Street digested fresh inflation data and President Trump revealed his pick to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose about 1% or more than 450 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped nearly 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) also added around 1.1%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were pacing for record closes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-pace-for-record-closes-as-fed-rate-cut-bets-jump-after-cpi-inflation-report-133543310.html

[Dod01]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-antoni-bls-statistics.html

New reality will be manufactured, crisis averted.

Smh. I will never know why right-wingers think all this is worth going to hell in the end. They don't have good foresight in the least. Trump trading in his soul to be the "leader" (he's really working for them in reality) of a white-supremacist, theocratic, oligarchal dictatorship. Every report will be doctored to make Trump look good. None of this is worth hell in the end.

[Dod01]

:lol many economists from both sides are warning of massive inflation :lol

https://x.com/baldwin_daniel_/status/1955248441895887149

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1955256236485607485

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/1955258615607996458

We're only a half a year in and prices have gone up pretty decently. Gas prices though, are still within the nearly identical fluctuations as it was during Biden's term. There isn't zero inflation like the Trump Admin is blatantly lying about.

[TSA]

Lots of directions pointing to a Black Monday tomorrow, February 3rd. Crypto down a whopping 16+%, and not just meme coins. S&P and JPN indexes all down, down, down.

Trump on twitter even hinted that Americans get ready to feel "pain". This likely will entail a massive stock market crash, recession, and re-heightened interest rates that we haven't seen since the 80s.

Trump Tariffs Hit Harder

S&P 500, Nasdaq both notch record close as inflation report gives Fed green light to cut rates

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/stock-market-today-live-updates-.html

lol

[Blake]

Tards keep thinking that companies will keep eating these tariffs and not pass them down eventually.

BUt tiNgS R geRd today. InteRnetS viCtorY!

[velik_m]

Trump's BLS nominee E.J. Antoni suggests suspending monthly jobs report

President Trump's nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics is suggesting that the agency suspend its monthly jobs report, an economic staple that is relied upon by the Federal Reserve and U.S. businesses to gauge the health of the economy.

In an interview on Fox News Digital on Monday ahead of his nomination, E.J. Antoni criticized the monthly employment report as flawed and suggested it be replaced with "more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data."

Antoni, who is a fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, was tapped by Mr. Trump on Monday to run the BLS after the president fired the former commissioner earlier this month, blaming her for a disappointing July jobs report. Mr. Trump took issue with large revisions made to the previous month's jobs data, although jobs number revisions are commonly issued by the agency as more accurate data is collected over time.

"How on earth are businesses supposed to plan — or how is the Fed supposed to conduct monetary policy — when they don't know how many jobs are being added or lost in our economy? It's a serious problem that needs to be fixed immediately," Antoni told Fox News Digital.

He added, "Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data."
...



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-bls-nominee-e-j-antoni-suspending-monthly-jobs-report/

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases".

[TSA]

We're only a half a year in and prices have gone up pretty decently.Since Trump took office CPI has averaged 1.9% on an annualized basis. Are you an idiot or a liar?

[koriwhat]

Since Trump took office CPI has averaged 1.9% on an annualized basis. Are you an idiot or a liar?

He's both tbh. Retard best describes him and his ilk.

[SnakeBoy]

Tards keep thinking that companies will keep eating these tariffs and not pass them down eventually.

BUt tiNgS R geRd today. InteRnetS viCtorY!

Why are they waiting to pass them down?

[koriwhat]

Why are they waiting to pass them down?

No need to listen to BlaKKKe. He's never gotten anything right here on ST nor in his failed marriage.

[ChumpDumper]

Why are they waiting to pass them down?

They're waiting for TACO or a carve out which is the same thing.

[SnakeBoy]

They're waiting for TACO or a carve out which is the same thing.

Oh I see

Trump always chickens out
Businesses are eating the cost until Trump chickens out

So why are prices going to go up eventually?

[ChumpDumper]

Oh I see

Trump always chickens out
Businesses are eating the cost until Trump chickens out

So why are prices going to go up eventually?I said they're waiting.

I didn't say either was going to happen.

Do you need help understanding these simple sentences?

Yes or no.

Please find the courage to be a man on an anonymous message board and answer a simple question with a simple yes or no.

[SnakeBoy]

I said they're waiting.

I didn't say either was going to happen.

Do you need help understanding these simple sentences?

Yes or no.

Please find the courage to be a man on an anonymous message board and answer a simple question with a simple yes or no.

I asked Blake, you answer for him

So you think Blake is full of shit?

Yes or No

[ChumpDumper]

I asked Blake, you answer for himAnyone can answer any question posed here. You can't control other people and you chose to respond to my answer and continue the conversation. If you regret your decision, that's your problem.


So you think Blake is full of shit?

Yes or No.
No.

You just asked me a question and I answered.

I asked you a simple question and you could not find the courage to answer my simple question with a simple yes or no.

You shouldn't be surprised if you are mocked for this.

[SnakeBoy]

Anyone can answer any question posed here. You can't control other people and you chose to respond to my answer and continue the conversation. If you regret your decision, that's your problem.


No.

You just asked me a question and I answered.

I asked you a simple question and you could not find the courage to answer my simple question with a simple yes or no.

You shouldn't be surprised if you are mocked for this.

Ok you're afraid to say if you agree with Blake's theory or not, that's fine.

I am interested in your explanation as to why you have been so completely wrong about the economy and tariffs. So let's stick to only what you have said, which is that businesses are waiting for Trump to chicken out. Why do you think they are waiting rather than just increasing their price now? Do you think their eating the cost of tariffs out of altruism or is there some other reason you can see that explains how completely wrong you have been?

[ChumpDumper]

Ok you're afraid to say if you agree with Blake's theory or not, that's fine.
It's not my fault you weren't smart enough to actually ask that question.

You asked if I think Blake is full of shit, yes or no.

I don't think he is full of shit, so I answered no.

That is how your question and my answer work.

If you have a question about how to make better questions, ask me that question.

I am interested in your explanation as to why you have been so completely wrong about the economy and tariffs. So let's stick to only what you have said, which is that businesses are waiting for Trump to chicken out. Why do you think they are waiting rather than just increasing their price now? Do you think their eating the cost of tariffs out of altruism or is there some other reason you can see that explains how completely wrong you have been?

Sorry, you need to find the courage to answer my simple yes or no question first.

Further, if you are even of below average intelligence, you should be able to realize I already answered these questions despite your false premise. It may be as simple as waiting for a mint to forge a coin it will use to bribe Trump and then waiting for a public meeting in which to present that bribe so the carve out can then be made by another fiat.

Why are too stupid to understand these things?

[SnakeBoy]

It's not my fault you weren't smart enough to actually ask that question.

You asked if I think Blake is full of shit, yes or no.

I don't think he is full of shit, so I answered no.

That is how your question and my answer work.

If you have a question about how to make better questions, ask me that question.


Sorry, you need to find the courage to answer my simple yes or no question first.

Further, if you are even of below average intelligence, you should be able to realize I already answered these questions despite your false premise. It may be as simple as waiting for a mint to forge a coin it will use to bribe Trump and then waiting for a public meeting in which to present that bribe so the carve out can then be made by another fiat.

Why are too stupid to understand these things?

OK, you're lashing out angrily, I get it, the election still hurts you but let's try to have a reasonable conversation. Tell you what, I'm going to go do some work outside, why don't you apply some vagisil and when it kicks in you can explain why you believe you have been so terribly wrong in this thread. I'll expect a thoughtful post from you when I get back.

[ChumpDumper]

OK, you're lashing out angrily, I get it, the election still hurts you but let's try to have a reasonable conversation. Tell you what, I'm going to go do some work outside, why don't you apply some vagisil and when it kicks in you can explain why you believe you have been so terribly wrong in this thread. I'll expect a thoughtful post from you when I get back.I accept your surrender. It's smart of you to take a break so you can calm down.

I need you to explain why you are so terrified by simple questions on an anonymous message board before anything else happens.

Meaning I really only expect you to melt down like you did above. You really did run out of options once you decided to not simply act like a man.:tu

[Blake]

Oh I see

Trump always chickens out
Businesses are eating the cost until Trump chickens out

So why are prices going to go up eventually?

If the tariffs stay in place, the companies will pass them on to the consumer. Why is this so hard for you tards to grasp?

Do you really believe Walmart will eat it because "WALMART MAKES BILLIONS AND TRUMP IS WATCHING YOU THANK FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER HUR DUR"

[TSA]

If the tariffs stay in place, the companies will pass them on to the consumer. Why is this so hard for you tards to grasp?

Do you really believe Walmart will eat it because "WALMART MAKES BILLIONS AND TRUMP IS WATCHING YOU THANK FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER HUR DUR"

Blake Cramer with more of the goods :rollin

Walmart is making Chinese suppliers eat it.

Walmart continues to lead on tariffs, further pressuring suppliers

Bloomberg, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, said Walmart (WMT) is asking suppliers to reduce prices by up to 10% for every new round of tariffs, effectively shifting the financial burden onto manufacturers. Last month, Chinese officials met with Walmart executives to discuss the request, calling it irresponsible and unfair. Despite this, Walmart appears unfazed and has doubled down on its demands.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-wont-back-down-demands-142200780.html

[velik_m]

Blake Cramer with more of the goods :rollin

Walmart is making Chinese suppliers eat it.

Walmart continues to lead on tariffs, further pressuring suppliers

Bloomberg, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, said Walmart (WMT) is asking suppliers to reduce prices by up to 10% for every new round of tariffs, effectively shifting the financial burden onto manufacturers. Last month, Chinese officials met with Walmart executives to discuss the request, calling it irresponsible and unfair. Despite this, Walmart appears unfazed and has doubled down on its demands.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-wont-back-down-demands-142200780.html

Why didn't they do this before the tariffs? Were they stupid?

[ChumpDumper]

Blake Cramer with more of the goods :rollin

Walmart is making Chinese suppliers eat it.

Walmart continues to lead on tariffs, further pressuring suppliers

Bloomberg, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, said Walmart (WMT) is asking suppliers to reduce prices by up to 10% for every new round of tariffs, effectively shifting the financial burden onto manufacturers. Last month, Chinese officials met with Walmart executives to discuss the request, calling it irresponsible and unfair. Despite this, Walmart appears unfazed and has doubled down on its demands.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-wont-back-down-demands-142200780.html

Walmart eliminated a lot of its free shipping. I don't think the suppliers are paying for that.

[velik_m]

US bankruptcies are surging past 2020 pandemic levels

...
Data from S&P 500 Global shows that this summer, US corporate bankruptcy filings surged to their highest level since 2020, with 71 public and private companies filing for bankruptcy last month. That's an increase from June, when 63 companies filed for bankruptcy.

Despite a strong stock market and 3% economic growth in the second quarter, some once-prominent names reported hard times in July, citing difficult economic conditions.

"Companies are contending with elevated interest rates as uncertainty from US tariff policy pressures costs and supply chain resilience," S&P 500 Global said.
...



https://www.businessinsider.com/corporate-bankruptices-highest-since-pandemic-economy-interest-rates-2025-8

[Blake]

Blake Cramer with more of the goods :rollin

Walmart is making Chinese suppliers eat it.

Walmart continues to lead on tariffs, further pressuring suppliers

Bloomberg, citing sources with knowledge of the situation, said Walmart (WMT) is asking suppliers to reduce prices by up to 10% for every new round of tariffs, effectively shifting the financial burden onto manufacturers. Last month, Chinese officials met with Walmart executives to discuss the request, calling it irresponsible and unfair. Despite this, Walmart appears unfazed and has doubled down on its demands.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-wont-back-down-demands-142200780.html

TSA still just can't wrap his head around simple business economics. The article you posted is from April 2.


May 15th:

"In an interview with CNBC, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said tariffs are “still too high” – even with the recently announced agreement to lower duties on imports from China to 30% for 90 days.

“We’re wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb,” he said. “It’s more than any supplier can absorb. And so I’m concerned that consumer is going to start seeing higher prices....."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.html

[DarrinS]

I hope the economy keeps crashing this hard. My 401k is earning more than me.

[DarrinS]

It pays more to work for a living than post all day on ST. Poor dudes

[SnakeBoy]

If the tariffs stay in place, the companies will pass them on to the consumer. Why is this so hard for you tards to grasp?

Do you really believe Walmart will eat it because "WALMART MAKES BILLIONS AND TRUMP IS WATCHING YOU THANK FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER HUR DUR"

That's still not an answer to my question of why are they waiting to raise prices

Why is Walmart eating the tariffs now?

Altruism?
They don't know how to raise/lower prices to adjust to TACO?

or some other reason?

Explain it to us tards who bought the dip and doubled our money

[ChumpDumper]

That's still not an answer to my question of why are they waiting to raise prices

Why is Walmart eating the tariffs now?

Altruism?
They don't know how to raise/lower prices to adjust to TACO?

or some other reason?

Explain it to us tards who bought the dip and doubled our money

You bought a Walmart dip?

Link.

[Blake]

That's still not an answer to my question of why are they waiting to raise prices

Why is Walmart eating the tariffs now?

Altruism?
They don't know how to raise/lower prices to adjust to TACO?

or some other reason?

Explain it to us tards who bought the dip and doubled our money

Who says Walmart has been eating the tariffs at all?

[velik_m]

I hope the economy keeps crashing this hard. My 401k is earning more than me.

The stock market will continue to rise. Especially S&P 500. Big companies are best poised to weather economic storms (+ they can more easily bribe the president), and as smaller companies go under, they can even expand their market. The inflation will not have much effect (Argentina's stock market was doing great during their 200% inflation period), plus there is not much else to invest into (if the US economy collapses much of everything else collapses), except maybe real estate, which is already overpriced.

The AI bubble will eventually pop, but there is always government bailout route, if things get bad. If you can afford it, investing in stock market should be pretty safe for another year or two at least, just avoid daily trading lottery.

US economy is big and it was world's strongest under Biden. It would take an enormous effort and time to crash and bankrupt it.

[SnakeBoy]

Who says Walmart has been eating the tariffs at all?

This guy says companies are eating the tariffs


Tards keep thinking that companies will keep eating these tariffs and not pass them down eventually.

BUt tiNgS R geRd today. InteRnetS viCtorY!

I'm trying to get his thoughts on why he believes they are eating the tariffs instead of just raising prices now, but he keeps dancing around the question like a little faggot

[ChumpDumper]

No one is eating the tariffs on equipment I buy fairly regularly. One item is about 63% more now compared to what it costs in Germany. Even with the shipping, I can save 30% buying retail from Europe.

What are the tariffs for again?

[ChumpDumper]

I'm using Walmart's price for comparison.

[Blake]

This guy says companies are eating the tariffs



I'm trying to get his thoughts on why he believes they are eating the tariffs instead of just raising prices now, but he keeps dancing around the question like a little faggot

I didn't say Walmart was eating the tariffs. I said 'companies'.

Yes, plenty of companies have been eating the tariffs in case Trump backs down. The Google is your friend to finding any number of reasons why "some" companies have eaten the tariffs....... "so far".

I'm feeling generous, I'll find an article and spoonfeed it to you.

[Blake]

In the meantime, I'll share what I was just reading myself:

"WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale inflation surged unexpectedly last month, signaling that President Donald Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports are pushing costs up and that higher prices for consumers may be on the way.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers— rose 0.9% last month from June, biggest jump in more than three years. Compared with a year earlier, wholesale prices rose 3.3%.

The numbers were much higher than economists had expected.

Prices rose faster for producers than consumers last month, suggesting that U.S. importers may, for now, be eating the cost of Trump’s tariffs rather than passing them on to customers.

That may not last......"

https://apnews.com/article/producer-prices-inflation-trump-tariffs-economy-0f6613cc6f9e1b76939fdcf2c9ad8d03

[ChumpDumper]

Also the domestic price of the item to which I refer has gone up 20% in the last week.

[Blake]

This guy says companies are eating the tariffs



I'm trying to get his thoughts on why he believes they are eating the tariffs instead of just raising prices now, but he keeps dancing around the question like a little faggot

Here are two thoughts for you that I think make sense:

"...If manufacturers are paying higher prices why isn’t this showing up in the CPI data? There are two hypotheses:

To date, companies have been working through lower cost, pre-tariff inventories. In 2H 2025 they will be converting more expensive inputs and will need to raise prices to maintain margins.

Many companies have absorbed higher costs to avoid losing share on the bet that the tariffs will be reversed soon. However, the recent trade deals with Japan and the EU are a strong signal that US manufacturers will need to live with double digit tariffs for the foreseeable future. They will raise prices in 2H 2025 to offset their higher costs........."

https://beckway.com/beckway-insights-should-i-worry-about-tariffs/#:~:text=Beckway%20Insights%3A%20Should%20I%20worr y%20about%20Tariffs%3F,that%20the%20tariffs%20will %20be%20reversed%20soon.

You okay now? Does that make sense to you? Did you get the TACO reference mixed in there?

[Blake]

Also the domestic price of the item to which I refer has gone up 20% in the last week.

Remember when tsa said this isn't going to be "inflation"? It's gonna be just a one time cost increase something something something [/textwall]

[ChumpDumper]

Remember when tsa said this isn't going to be "inflation"? It's gonna be just a one time cost increase something something something [/textwall]

It's pretty interesting. This particular item's price has gone from 5% over Europe to 25% to 32% to 63%.

snacks has never answered the question "What are these tariffs for?" and he never will.

[Winehole23]

I hope the economy keeps crashing this hard. My 401k is earning more than me.navel-gazing has always been your philosophy here

[Blake]

navel-gazing has always been your philosophy here

His stocks will never go high enough to cover his new inflation level bar tabs

[DarrinS]

His stocks will never go high enough to cover his new inflation level bar tabs

I'm frugal. Don't drink at bars. My 401k has earned over 250k so far in 2025. Tee hee

[Blake]

I'm frugal. Don't drink at bars. My 401k has earned over 250k so far in 2025. Tee hee

Where was this bragging in 2024?

[DarrinS]

Where was this bragging in 2024?

Biden's economy sucked

[ChumpDumper]

Biden's economy sucked

How much did you lose?

[Blake]

Biden's economy sucked

:lol it absolutely did not in 2024.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500

Your stocks must have really sucked.

[Blake]

How much did you lose?

Forever crickets

[DMX7]

:lol it absolutely did not in 2024.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500

Your stocks must have really sucked.

It definitely did not suck. The overall market was up 20%+, so Darrin may have made some bad personal investments that year.

[Blake]

It definitely did not suck. The overall market was up 20%+, so Darrin may have made some bad personal investments that year.

Or he's just lying

[Winehole23]

de minimis exemption ends August 29th


The de minimis exemption had allowed goods valued at $800 or less to enter the US without paying any tariffs. US consumers relied on the exemption to buy cheap clothes and household items from online commerce sites like Shein and Temu.https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c939q47xlleo

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jd5ynkua4gin3r2fmb25marj/bafkreiemjz7hur5amwfgohaqzmlegyomskox3khrz3rom4ykw c6v44yhfy@jpeg

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jd5ynkua4gin3r2fmb25marj/bafkreiemjz7hur5amwfgohaqzmlegyomskox3khrz3rom4ykw c6v44yhfy@jpeg

I bet the one on the left was in like Ohio or Kentucky or something and the one on the right was on the west coast.

[Winehole23]

inflation is very real when it comes to beef

[Blake]

I bet the one on the left was in like Ohio or Kentucky or something and the one on the right was on the west coast.

There just has to be another explanation! It can't be real!

[velik_m]

U.S. government takes 10% stake in Intel, as Trump expands control over private sector

...
Intel, the only American company capable of making advanced chips on U.S. soil, said in a press release that the government made an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, purchasing 433.3 million shares at a price of $20.47 per share, giving it a 10% stake in the company. Intel noted that the price the government paid was a discount to the current market price.

Of the total, $5.7 billion of the government funds will come from grants under the CHIPS Act that had been awarded but not paid, and $3.2 billion will come from separate government awards under a program to make secure chips.

“The United States paid nothing for these Shares, and the Shares are now valued at approximately $11 Billion Dollars,” President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “This is a great Deal for America and, also, a great Deal for INTEL.”

The government will also have a warrant to buy an additional 5% of Intel shares if the company is no longer majority owner of its foundry business.
...


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html

[velik_m]

U.S. government takes 10% stake in Intel, as Trump expands control over private sector

...
Intel, the only American company capable of making advanced chips on U.S. soil, said in a press release that the government made an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, purchasing 433.3 million shares at a price of $20.47 per share, giving it a 10% stake in the company. Intel noted that the price the government paid was a discount to the current market price.

Of the total, $5.7 billion of the government funds will come from grants under the CHIPS Act that had been awarded but not paid, and $3.2 billion will come from separate government awards under a program to make secure chips.

“The United States paid nothing for these Shares, and the Shares are now valued at approximately $11 Billion Dollars,” President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “This is a great Deal for America and, also, a great Deal for INTEL.”

The government will also have a warrant to buy an additional 5% of Intel shares if the company is no longer majority owner of its foundry business.
...


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html

[velik_m]

U.S. government takes 10% stake in Intel, as Trump expands control over private sector

...
Intel, the only American company capable of making advanced chips on U.S. soil, said in a press release that the government made an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, purchasing 433.3 million shares at a price of $20.47 per share, giving it a 10% stake in the company. Intel noted that the price the government paid was a discount to the current market price.

Of the total, $5.7 billion of the government funds will come from grants under the CHIPS Act that had been awarded but not paid, and $3.2 billion will come from separate government awards under a program to make secure chips.

“The United States paid nothing for these Shares, and the Shares are now valued at approximately $11 Billion Dollars,” President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “This is a great Deal for America and, also, a great Deal for INTEL.”

The government will also have a warrant to buy an additional 5% of Intel shares if the company is no longer majority owner of its foundry business.
...


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1958949399112843631

[Winehole23]

tl;dr

disadvantage, USA

ship fees and more tariffs will tend to make it wrse




The container shipping industry is experiencing an unprecedented divergence in the market, with US-bound trade lanes suffering significant declines while routes to other regions show surprising strength, according to the latest BIMCO (https://gcaptain.com/tag/bimco/) Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook for September 2025.
“On the strength of demand in trade lanes not bound for the US, we have increased our ship demand growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5-5.5% while maintaining it at 2.5-3.5% for 2026. We now expect a balanced supply/demand development in 2026 while expecting average market conditions in 2025 to be worse than in 2024,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

The stark contrast between US import volumes and global shipping trends has become increasingly pronounced following the implementation of tariff increases announced on “Liberation Day.” With few exceptions, these tariffs are now fully implemented, along with several commodity-specific increases.

North American import volumes have shown negative year-on-year growth since April, with BIMCO forecasting a 2% contraction for 2025 before returning to growth in 2026.

The decline in US container imports could rank among the most significant (https://gcaptain.com/mccown-u-s-container-imports-face-historic-decline-as-tariff-effects-take-hold/) in the industry’s six-decade history, according to shipping expert John McCown. August data revealed only a slight 0.1% year-over-year increase in inbound container volume at the ten largest U.S. ports, following a temporary reprieve in July when volumes rose 3.2%.

August’s marginal growth can be attributed to an exemption for goods in transit after the August 7 implementation of revised reciprocal tariffs. “The new tariffs did not apply to containers that were loaded on vessels at their last foreign port of call before August 7 provided they entered the U.S. before October 5,” McCown explains.

The situation could worsen with the potential implementation of currently paused reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports in mid-November, which would likely “lead to broader declines related to inbound containers to the U.S. from China.”

Adding further complexity is the upcoming USTR ship fee plan (https://gcaptain.com/tag/ustr-port-fees/) targeting vessels built in China or operated by Chinese carriers, set to take effect in mid-October. McCown describes this as “moving container volume related to trade lanes involving the U.S. into unchartered waters,” with potential global ripple effects as these lanes account for more than a quarter of global container miles.

Despite the challenges facing US-bound routes, cargo volume growth to most other regions has proven resilient. BIMCO expects global volumes to grow 2.5-3.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
https://gcaptain.com/tariffs-split-container-shipping-u-s-imports-sink-as-global-trade-grows/

[Winehole23]

tariffs appear to be making trade imbalances -- the supposed emergency requiring global tariffs in the first place -- worse

[velik_m]

Data Shows That AI Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies

Artificial intelligence might be booming on paper, but in the real world, there are signs of a major slowdown.

In their latest biweekly survey of AI adoption, the US Census Bureau found evidence of an obvious drop-off in corporate AI use — the largest since the survey began in November of 2023.

The survey, which compiles data from over 1.2 million firms throughout the US, shows usage of AI tools among companies with over 250 employees dropping from nearly 14 percent in mid-June to under 12 percent in August.

While usage appeared to rise slightly in very small businesses with less than four workers, AI adoption also fell or remained flat in mid-sized companies with less than 250 workers but more than 19.

It’s a particularly distressing sign for tech investors and CEOs, whose unfettered spending on AI is now literally holding up the US economy. For the last few years, they’ve held that enterprise AI — stuff that would prop up powerful companies in tech, finance, and beyond — was the key to building a sustainable business model off of AI development.
...


https://futurism.com/ai-hype-automation-decline

[Winehole23]

the shutdown means the government can't counter this with its own data


Privately run businesses eliminated jobs in September for the third time in four months, ADP said, in another sign of emerging weakness in the labor market that alarmed the Federal Reserve enough to cut interest rates two weeks ago.The private sector culled 32,000 jobs last month, according to ADP, the nation’s largest processor of payroll checks.

Monthly employment has fallen three times since June to mark the worst stretch for the labor market since the pandemic.

“This is still a very stable market, but the hiring momentum has slowed,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-businesses-cut-jobs-for-third-time-in-four-month-as-labor-market-weakens-8e245e92

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cfnqg4gh5y4fvo7hixcruzy3/bafkreia6pon4fvlvglblbsbtnn6hespc4wacb3duub2inpltr 3jpuqhv7m@jpeg

[Blake]

Hey but at least muh crypto is up

[Winehole23]

Hey but at least muh crypto is upFTW, I GOT MINE

[Winehole23]

new housing permits downtrending


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fym46q73iqip75m2ployecav/bafkreibstypwfpr23xcpxdt6ygixucv7cx2maipt5ibdjac3j y727asupy@jpeg

[Blake]

new housing permits downtrending


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fym46q73iqip75m2ployecav/bafkreibstypwfpr23xcpxdt6ygixucv7cx2maipt5ibdjac3j y727asupy@jpeg

Thanks tariffs and deportations.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreia7bwuu6uxpa65g73npddf2icfpjaveunebif2wn2n3n ibacu7bam@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vwxpr3ibmfhaeyvuoiuzcpjf/bafkreibolwgyo44ukiaawntwqcjzprmdq4k44tuitjl6hayle 3vptrajty@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiemdad7q3vymmlggnki3arl3wifs6ldnaiovqb64y2uu ukedavkry@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3vyl2i7k2fuk7lbnmlxh3vof/bafkreih2j2g7rwra5wjscrnfw4iyjqt2c3r24cp6bxuzmsogj 22yww7qyi@jpeg
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3vyl2i7k2fuk7lbnmlxh3vof/bafkreif5v5dhbc7gsrtdcj6hxit6jh33ei2yepg4xcst724rr ajq4rezhe@jpeg
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3vyl2i7k2fuk7lbnmlxh3vof/bafkreifikrnyj2u6myynj5kcwcqjlbwmvjsh2otoj4ljflj7i hfoei4w4e@jpeg
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3vyl2i7k2fuk7lbnmlxh3vof/bafkreicfjlzgrsmzccqotsso3tnvlwb565vkvjkpj5qc26acq encl26ewy@jpeg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreie6myurckomxogej7pxkqbrweg6vabqu4crh2eteb4g7 asomordk4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

DJIA futures suggest a 900 point down opening tomorrow

[Blake]

With Trump doing his taco thing, the market might go up

[DarrinS]

I've survived the financial crisis and covid. I'm retiring at 56.

[DarrinS]

With Trump doing his taco thing, the market might go up

I don't think you understand the market

[DarrinS]

Massive gains next week

[DarrinS]

It's weird that the left wants a crash

[BadMotorscooter]

It's weird that the left wants a crash

i'm not suprised at all...democrats hate America....always have. Look at the presidential attempts on their life...Trump(republican) twice....Reagan(republican)....Lincoln(republican) ...Garfield(republican)...McKinley(republican).... democrats are a cancer to society....and that is fact. Let me hear from democrat posters about all the attempts on democrat presidents.....

[ChumpDumper]

i'm not suprised at all...democrats hate America....always have. Look at the presidential attempts on their life...Trump(republican) twice....Reagan(republican)....Lincoln(republican) ...Garfield(republican)...McKinley(republican).... democrats are a cancer to society....and that is fact. Let me hear from democrat posters about all the attempts on democrat presidents.....You never heard of JFK?

:lol holy shit you're a fucking moron.

There were also attempts on Roosevelt, Truman, Clinton and Obama.

Why are you the stupidest person alive?

[Winehole23]

It's weird that the left wants a crashTrump is driving the economy and the country into a ditch, that doesn't mean I want it or like it

[Winehole23]

With Trump doing his taco thing, the market might go upit's crazy that one demented guy posting to social media whipsaws the market like this -- Dow futures now up 400 points

[Blake]

I don't think you understand the market

I know you don't understand anything of what Trump is doing other than creating lib tears for you to enjoy.

[Blake]

it's crazy that one demented guy posting to social media whipsaws the market like this -- Dow futures now up 400 points

Yup. Darrin is too stupid to understand how Trump doing his taco dance for China affects the market.

[DarrinS]

Womp womp

[Blake]

Womp womp

^ just here to up his post count

[Winehole23]

Darrin's an airhead

[DarrinS]

Bought 3 ETFs on Friday. Dumb luck. That 150k investment will be a nice bonus in 20 years.

[BadMotorscooter]

Darrin's an airhead

said the poster with an IQ of a plastic house plant.....

[velik_m]

America is ‘going broke slowly’ says J.P. Morgan, as national debt balloons and tariff revenue looks shaky

...

But Kelly cautioned: “It’s worth pausing here to consider this number. The total federal debt in the hands of the public is now almost $30.3 trillion or, we estimate, 99.9% of GDP. Starting from these levels, if nominal GDP grows by roughly 4.5% going forward, (comprised of 2.0% real growth and 2.5% inflation), then any budget deficit north of 4.5% will cause the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise. Under our assumptions, the debt-to-GDP ratio climbs from 99.9% on September 30th, 2025, to 102.2% of GDP 12 months later.”

Debt is likely to rise even quicker than this, he added.

On tariffs, for example, there are still questions about the legalities of Trump’s action. If they are overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court, “this would, at a minimum, force the administration to go back to the drawing board to impose replacement tariffs under some other authority or by sending a bill through Congress. Moreover, it could force substantial refunds of tariffs already paid in recent months,” Kelly added.

Moreover, these estimates are reliant on “no recession and no need for other major spending on domestic or international priorities.” Questions about whether the U.S. may already technically be in a recession in some states are growing. Kelly adds: “Because of all of this, a deficit equal to 6.7% of GDP should probably be regarded as a low-ball estimate of this year’s red ink.”

...



https://fortune.com/2025/10/14/america-going-broke-jpmorgan-david-kelly-debt-tariffs/

[Winehole23]

Bought 3 ETFs on Friday. Dumb luck. That 150k investment will be a nice bonus in 20 years.just keep staring at your own belly button and ignoring everything else

[velik_m]

‘Finances are getting tighter’: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

...
The wider fear – and the one causing consternation among investors – is what the troubles inside this one market might indicate about broader pressures rippling throughout the wider economy. “Distress in auto lending broadly is often seen as a bellwether to changing circumstances in the US economy, because Americans particularly in the lower-income brackets tend to put their highest priority in auto payments,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.

“Having a car is essential to being able to work,” he added. “So when we see stress in the auto financing market, we typically receive that as an indication that household finances are getting tighter.”

An estimated 100 million Americans hold auto loans, with 85% of new car purchases and 55% of used car purchases financed. It is the third-largest consumer credit market in the US, behind mortgages and student loans.

Problems in the auto loan industry have been manifesting for several years, as car prices rose sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic while inflation soared and interest rate increases followed. Paying off a new car required 42 weeks of income in 2023, according to Cox Automotive, up from about 33 before the pandemic.

High prices meant bigger loans. The average monthly repayment now stands at more than $750.

Car repossessions surged to their highest level since 2009 last year, according to Cox, with 1.73m vehicles seized, up 16% from the year prior and 43% from 2022.
...



https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/17/us-car-repossessions-economy

[Winehole23]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/17/us-car-repossessions-economysplit-screen economy

pretty good for the top 10%. kinda sucky for the rest of us

[DarrinS]

Can't understand why its not crashing. Pity

[Winehole23]

Can't understand why its not crashing. Pitythe US economy is pretty strong, Trump isn't helping it

[DarrinS]

the US economy is pretty strong, Trump isn't helping it

My retirement account is out earning me. Time to quit

[Winehole23]

My retirement account is out earning me. Time to quithit the snooze bar, DarrinS, we already knew it was all about you all along

:lol

[ChumpDumper]

My retirement account is out earning me. Time to quit

Who will you say the N word to at the water cooler?

[Winehole23]

stagflationary bind




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2tjnqjbnqampayvk4hez7q3h/bafkreigqnrykwjimqyivwhz4m43edxv32qjnyy2uwvg2lflnp ytrsbo2e4@jpeg

[Winehole23]

not fiscal, but tariff-driven

[Millennial_Messiah]

not fiscal, but tariff-driven

It's time to go back to Reagan administration era of free trade for all. End all tariffs to 0%.

Ronald Reagan: " The way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. "
<span>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDGtvAYmblY

[Winehole23]

It's time to go back to Reagan administration era of free trade for all. End all tariffs to 0%.

Ronald Reagan: " The way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. "
<span>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDGtvAYmblYyeah, MAGAs don't really believe in that anymore

[Millennial_Messiah]

yeah, MAGAs don't really believe in that anymore

But Reagan coined the term "MAGA".

[BadMotorscooter]

yeah, MAGAs don't really believe in that anymore


Democrats dont believe in the middle....its why they are losing independents in droves.....:lmao

[Winehole23]

labor market remains soft


Each monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), along with their annual revisions, reveals that even more jobs have disappeared from what the BLS had previously reported. The BLS revision (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htm?ref=dollarsandsense.org) of the employment numbers from March 2024 to March 2025 wiped 911,000 jobs from their jobs count. That cut reduced average estimated monthly job creation by more than half, from 147,000 to 71,000 jobs a month. After Trump’s Liberation Day announcement of his ever-changing, draconian tariff regime in April of this year, things got worse. From May through August, the economy added an average of just 27,000 jobs per month. The Wall Street Journal editors called it “The Trump Summer Jobs Stall.” On top of that, a quarter (25.9%) of the officially unemployed (those who want a job and had looked for a job in the last four weeks), have gone more than half a year (27 weeks) without a job, (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/unemployed-27-weeks-or-longer-as-a-percent-of-total-unemployed.htm?ref=dollarsandsense.org) the highest figure since February 2022 when the economy was still recovering from the Covid pandemic downturn.


With the current government shutdown, the BLS report on the September employment situation was not available. Economists have now turned to private sources for employment data, such as ADP, the giant payroll-processing company. The ADP Employment Report (which covered more than half a million private companies with more than 26 million employees) estimated that the U.S. economy lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. That was the largest drop in private employment reported by ADP since March 2023 (https://mediacenter.adp.com/2025-10-01-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Shed-32,000-Jobs-in-September-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-5?ref=dollarsandsense.org). The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that through August, U.S. companies had already announced more job cuts than they had in all of 2024, and more than any year since 2020 (https://www.challengergray.com/blog/pharma-and-finance-lead-as-august-2025-job-cuts-rise-39-to-85979/?ref=dollarsandsense.org).
https://www.dollarsandsense.org/where-have-all-the-new-jobs-gone/

[Winehole23]

K-shaped

AI and everything else


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wec6px5gney7m66ww744desy/bafkreifkxg25yrz2wlikxvckgkjn2uabn4kcovpasbpvpfyio rxqgm4zfm@jpeg

[TSA]

adjusted this time for the January surge in gold

the bigger realGDP figure is apparently a related statistical anomaly


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/bafkreiduxl57rhtmwjjogai37dkqk67bhaz3nk5izcjr4lrky ym7g6tasu@jpeg

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1991179476625977493

https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1991163760195567968

https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1991181239013740646

:lol winehole

[Blake]

"....Trump administration tariffs imposed this year on dozens of nations and a range of industries are fueling inflation, especially for goods that are widely imported into the U.S., a recent analysis shows.

Product categories seeing some of the biggest price hikes due to tariffs include furniture, car parts, electronics and musical instruments, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The findings are based on research models estimating tariff-related price hikes and drawing on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a widely used gauge of inflation.

Importers bear the cost of tariffs, typically passing at least some of the added expenses to consumers, economic research shows...."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-tariffs-trump-prices-consumers/


How are you coming out better in 2025 than you were in 2023? In detail please.

[SnakeBoy]

How are you struggling in this great economy? In detail please.

[Blake]

How are you struggling in this great economy? In detail please.

Lol snakes daily troll with "great economy".

I'm doing okay but so many Americans aren't. It's really the simplest of Google searches to see our fellow citizens suffering and getting ready to suffer even more in 2026.

Why do you get off on their suffering? You Trumpers are retarded freaks.

[Winehole23]

lol Snake Boy asking for details

[SnakeBoy]

It's time to go back to Reagan administration era of free trade for all. End all tariffs to 0%.

Ronald Reagan: " The way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. "
<span>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDGtvAYmblY

uh...he's literally addressing why he imposed tariffs in that video

Free and Fair trade

[ChumpDumper]

uh...he's literally addressing why he imposed tariffs in that video

Free and Fair trade

Why is your Trump TACOing on his tariffs now?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Why is your Trump TACOing on his tariffs now?

The economy is dumping rapidly and he knows the GOP will lose house and governor seats in a landslide in the midterms if he doesn't get it right and fast.

Imposing tariffs for "national security" is stupid and retarded. Having the strongest economy is the way to national security, not temper tantric tariffs.

[Winehole23]

Sometimes you actually make sense, M_M

:tu

[velik_m]

Amazon cut more than 1,800 engineers in record layoffs, despite saying it needs to innovate faster

Amazon’s 14,000-plus layoffs announced last month touched almost every piece of the company’s sprawling business, from cloud computing and devices to advertising, retail and grocery stores. But one job category bore the brunt of cuts more than others: engineers.

Documents filed in New York, California, New Jersey and Amazon’s home state of Washington showed that nearly 40% of the more than 4,700 job cuts in those states were engineering roles. The data was reported by Amazon in Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN, filings to state agencies.

The figures represent a segment of the total layoffs announced in October. Not all data was immediately available because of differences in state WARN reporting requirements.

In announcing the steepest round of cuts in its 31-year history, Amazon joined a growing roster of tech companies that have slashed jobs this year even as cash piles have mounted and profits soared. In total, there have been almost 113,000 job cuts at 231 tech companies, according to Layoffs.fyi, continuing a trend that began in 2022 as businesses readjusted to life after the Covid pandemic.
...


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/amazon-cut-thousands-of-engineers-in-its-record-layoffs-filings-show.html

[Blake]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/amazon-cut-thousands-of-engineers-in-its-record-layoffs-filings-show.html

"...Average pay is increasing to more than $23 per hour, and average total compensation is increasing to more than $30 an hour when you include the value of our industry-leading benefits package....."

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/workplace/amazon-wage-increase-2025-fulfillment-transportation-employees


But Amazon and team Trumptard will brag about this part and declare American life is great.

[velik_m]

Trump Cancels Release of Crucial Economic Report to Hide His Failures
...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced Monday that it had officially canceled releasing the advance estimate on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025. The Trump administration had previously delayed the release, which was initially slated for October 30, due to the government shutdown—but now it seems to have been abandoned altogether.

Last week, the Labor Department called off releasing its monthly jobs report for October, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics scrapped its own report on inflation.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt blamed the Democrats two weeks ago for such delays, saying the liberal party “may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system.” She hinted at further cancellations, saying that data from October “will be permanently impaired.”

...


https://newrepublic.com/post/203619/donald-trump-cancels-release-gdp-economic-report

[Winehole23]

Yen carry trade unwinding could have unpredictable downstream effects


It’s "concerning that both the yen and the long end of the Japanese government bond nominal market is starting to decouple from any measure of fair value and that intraday correlations are accelerating,” Saravelos said in emailed comments. "If domestic confidence in the government’s and BOJ’s s commitment to low inflation is lost, the reasons to buy JGBs disappear, and more disruptive capital flight ensues.”Concerns over Takaichi’s spending plans have sent government bond yields to multi-decade highs and the yen has weakened to its lowest level since January, slipping near a zone that could trigger intervention from the BOJ. The government is set to unveil the largest spending plan since the pandemic.

To be sure, the 2022 gilt market crisis was fueled by forced selling from U.K. pension fund strategies. There’s no suggestion of a comparable risk from leveraged investors embedded into Japan’s market structure.

Still, Saravelos isn’t alone in expressing concern. Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale, said the rise in Japanese long bond yields is "a major warning sign that very few investors are heeding.” The rate on 30-year bonds traded at over 3.35% on Thursday, compared to about 3% at the start of the month.

"It’s not a panic sell-off (yet), but an incremental, remorseless rise in yields,” Edwards wrote. "This secular bear market in government bonds, led by Japan, is destined to unwind the valuation inflation of the past 40 years in stocks and real estate.”https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/11/21/economy/deutsche-bank-warning-bonds/

[Winehole23]

doomerism to be sure, but capitalism has blown up twice since 2008, requiring robust public bailouts both times


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:n2jsmusnh3jt6nokd5dcloe6/bafkreigmxjyunhkz7vcezahiec6svuutjdeqwanib73bymm5j zgjbatg5q@jpeg

[TSA]

5/7/2025

Many economists on both sides today are warning of massive inflation coming.


12/18/2025
https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2001647993959960614

This is absolutely insane:

Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the largest monthly declines since 2023.

While a +10 basis point increase in inflation was expected, it actually FELL by -40 basis points.

This puts Core CPI inflation in the US at its lowest level since March 2021.

According to this data, inflation is now at its closest point to the Fed's 2% target since the pandemic.

2026 is going to be a wild year.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2001648498165395503


https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2001656024097272170

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2001655334545342476


:lmao :lmao :lmao Blake Cramer :lmao :lmao :lmao

[Winehole23]

Inventory got front-loaded in the wake of Liberation Day

The full inflationary toll of the tariffs has yet to be tolled

[velik_m]

Today’s Doctored CPI Inflation Release is like a Bad Joke, but Very Serious (though it Suits the Administration’s Narrative)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics explained today in its CPI report for November that most data for October was missing and some data for November was missing, and that it filled in the gaps in the November data, including by “approximating missing data points” with whatever, including for Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER), the biggest component of CPI, weighing 26% of overall CPI, for 33% of core CPI, and for 44% of core services CPI.

OER had a suspicious outlier-plunge in September, and that suspicious outlier-plunge in September was carried forward to October and November. And the BLS even explained some of it in separate notes, and so it’s not a secret.

...


https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/18/todays-doctored-cpi-inflation-release-is-like-a-bad-joke-but-very-serious-though-it-suits-the-administrations-narrative/

[ChumpDumper]

:lol TSA fell for it again

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rsqkyqrhivo64xonbittbthn/bafkreidc42zjs6tonelchfxa7ymvx5ybj76xb5hymlgbt3ibe 6jz2gd7ia@jpeg

[DMX7]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rsqkyqrhivo64xonbittbthn/bafkreidc42zjs6tonelchfxa7ymvx5ybj76xb5hymlgbt3ibe 6jz2gd7ia@jpeg

Let's see what the actual spending looks like. What people say and what they do, especially in America, are often two very different things.

[Blake]

5/7/2025



12/18/2025
https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2001647993959960614

This is absolutely insane:

Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the largest monthly declines since 2023.

While a +10 basis point increase in inflation was expected, it actually FELL by -40 basis points.

This puts Core CPI inflation in the US at its lowest level since March 2021.

According to this data, inflation is now at its closest point to the Fed's 2% target since the pandemic.

2026 is going to be a wild year.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2001648498165395503


https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2001656024097272170

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2001655334545342476


:lmao :lmao :lmao Blake Cramer :lmao :lmao :lmao

So now you agree that experts made those predictions? OK.

[Blake]

Let's see what the actual spending looks like. What people say and what they do, especially in America, are often two very different things.

Yeah, maybe. And then let's check credit card payments this year versus last.

You tards will never give up on your lord and Master Trump, huh?

[ChumpDumper]

:cheerLet's see what the actual spending looks like. What people say and what they do, especially in America, are often two very different things.:cheer

[TSA]

So now you agree that experts made those predictions? OK."muh experts"

https://x.com/WSJ/status/2003459382466519423

:lmao :lmao :lmao Blake Cramer :lmao :lmao :lmao

[Winehole23]

lol I beat you to it

[DMX7]

"muh experts"

https://x.com/WSJ/status/2003459382466519423

:lmao :lmao :lmao Blake Cramer :lmao :lmao :lmao

In fairness, who knows how accurate this data is.

[Blake]

"muh experts"

https://x.com/WSJ/status/2003459382466519423

:lmao :lmao :lmao Blake Cramer :lmao :lmao :lmao

You don't even remember what the original claim was. You've completely lost any rational thought you may have ever had, all to try to scrape together desperate internet victories.

sad.

[Blake]

In fairness, who knows how accurate this data is.

Trump said little girls won't get the extra doll this Christmas.

[Winehole23]

In fairness, who knows how accurate this data is.I don't see any reason to doubt it, Trump inherited a strong economy. It's pretty hard for government officials to screw up macroeconomics, even if they try.

[velik_m]

https://x.com/GordonJohnson19/status/2003461266602356886

[velik_m]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWPRNRsDehw

[TSA]

https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2009261909346746581

https://x.com/RedWave_Press/status/2009263266074136582

https://x.com/truflation/status/2009278987156300209

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2009316492354179444

:lol Blake Cramer :lol

[ChumpDumper]

Why are the markets not skyrocketing at all the happy news?

[Yonivore]

Trump’s tariffs actually slashed the deficit from a record $136.4 billion to less than half that. Here’s what else they did (https://fortune.com/2025/12/26/trump-tariffs-trade-deficit-year-in-review-charts/)

[ChumpDumper]

Very sloppy headline.

It makes rubes like yoni believe Trump's fiat taxes are reducing the US budget deficit.

[TSA]

5/7/2025

Many economists on both sides today are warning of massive inflation coming. Why are you ignoring them today? Why is Trump ignoring them and going ?



1/8/2026
U.S. productivity just surged +4.9%. The strongest reading in nearly six years.

At the same time, labor costs fell –1.9%.

Higher output with lower costs is the holy grail: growth without inflation.

Put simply:
• Productivity jumped from ~3.3% to 4.9%
• Labor costs flipped from +1% to –1.9%

No surprise the Atlanta Fed’s Q4 GDP forecast just climbed to +5.4%.
https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/2009328964024848753

:lmao Blake Cramer :lmao

[Yonivore]

While Antifa-trained agitators, in Minneapolis, and Tren de Aragua gang members in Portland, try to run down ICE Agents and get shot for their trouble, The Trump administration keeps barreling toward record economic indicators. Don't worry, you haters on the Left will benefit, as well - there's nothing we can do to stop it. Trump's economic policies aren't discriminatory.

https://x.com/i/status/2009318072889561172

[ChumpDumper]

Antifa Tren de Aragua :lol your boogeymen

Are you hiding from them right now?

Why are the markets not skyrocketing on all this happy news?

Please explain.

[TSA]

S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW all at all time highs :lol

[ChumpDumper]

But the markets really didn't skyrocket with all your happy news, did they?

TSA used to make a really big deal of it when jobs numbers were revised downwards months later.

Jobs numbers have been revised downwards most of this past year.

TSA has shut the fuck up about it.

Why?

[Blake]

But the markets really didn't skyrocket with all your happy news, did they?

TSA used to make a really big deal of it when jobs numbers were revised downwards months later.

Jobs numbers have been revised downwards most of this past year.

TSA has shut the fuck up about it.

Why?

Because the stock market going up are the marching orders. And he'll never discuss how he's doing now compared to 2024.

[TSA]

5/7/2025

Many economists on both sides today are warning of massive inflation coming. Why are you ignoring them today? Why is Trump ignoring them and going ?


1/13/2026
US inflation stays at 2.7% in December

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/2f6d3a97-561e-4c78-9a45-913999d622ca

US inflation stayed at 2.7 per cent in December, according to data that suggested price growth is being contained even as it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Tuesday’s annual consumer price index figure was unchanged from November and in line with the expectations of economists polled by Bloomberg.

Core inflation, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, was 2.6 per cent, just below expectations of 2.7 per cent. Housing-related prices rose 3.2 per cent, meanwhile, pushing up the headline figure.

The release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated price rises in the world’s leading economy had eased, despite concerns last year that Donald Trump’s aggressive deployment of tariffs could fuel a lasting inflationary surge.

“The key takeaway is that goods prices were very benign, which underscores the point that tariffs have had a far more muted impact on inflation than feared,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

https://www.ft.com/content/2f6d3a97-561e-4c78-9a45-913999d622ca

:lol Blake Cramer :lol

[ChumpDumper]

stripping out volatile food and energy prices

[TSA]

5/7/2025

Many economists on both sides today are warning of massive inflation coming.

1/14/2026
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2011429361191448939

:lol Blake Cramer :lol

[TSA]

Because the stock market going up are the marching orders. And he'll never discuss how he's doing now compared to 2024.

https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2011101263598141795

Inflation is lower, wages are higher, and markets keep reaching all time highs. Only a Blake Cramer could be doing worse now :rollin

[TSA]

https://x.com/RobProvince/status/2011420328451621063

"This is CNN"

[TSA]

Because the stock market going up are the marching orders. And he'll never discuss how he's doing now compared to 2024.You sure shut the fuck up about the "massive inflation" coming.

Inflation is lower, wages are higher, and markets keep reaching all time highs. How are you doing worse now compared to 2024...or do you not want to discuss that? :lol

[Blake]

5/7/2025


1/14/2026
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2011429361191448939

:lol Blake Cramer :lol

So the inflation they predicted isn't as high yet as many predicted. And?

[Blake]

5/7/2025


1/14/2026
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2011429361191448939

:lol Blake Cramer :lol

So the inflation they predicted isn't as high yet as many predicted. And?

[Blake]

You sure shut the fuck up about the "massive inflation" coming.

Inflation is lower, wages are higher, and markets keep reaching all time highs. How are you doing worse now compared to 2024...or do you not want to discuss that? :lol

Sure, you and I both are needlessly paying more now than we were in 2024 for basic necessities. I'm fine, but it's senseless and poorer people are affected greatly.

"....Grocery prices rose broadly in December, with five major food categories posting increases, while dining out also became more expensive.

Utility costs added to the pressure, with electricity prices up nearly 7% last year and natural gas posting double-digit gains.

After several years of relatively slow growth, health care costs are beginning to play a larger role in inflation, according to the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics....."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-food-energy-trump-economy-rcna253881


As for unemployment rate:

"...Government data show the Trump administration’s immigration policies reducing the number of foreign-born workers did not help U.S.-born workers in 2025. The latest data indicate a substantial drop in foreign-born workers did not translate into better labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers or encourage more workers to enter the labor force. The U.S.-born unemployment rate increased over the past 12 months..."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/11/the-us-born-unemployment-rate-rose-after-trump-reduced-immigration/

Which in my opinion, means companies gave raises to people because they're taking on extra work that was done by the people that have been met go.


You have no ability to think for yourself. You just follow the thinking orders of your favorite Russian paid Podcaster. Sad.

[Blake]

stripping out volatile food and energy prices

Lol he never reads or comprehends the word walls he posts.

[TSA]

Sure, you and I both are needlessly paying more now than we were in 2024 for basic necessities. I'm fine, but it's senseless and poorer people are affected greatly.

"....Grocery prices rose broadly in December, with five major food categories posting increases, while dining out also became more expensive.

Utility costs added to the pressure, with electricity prices up nearly 7% last year and natural gas posting double-digit gains.

After several years of relatively slow growth, health care costs are beginning to play a larger role in inflation, according to the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics....."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-food-energy-trump-economy-rcna253881


As for unemployment rate:

"...Government data show the Trump administration’s immigration policies reducing the number of foreign-born workers did not help U.S.-born workers in 2025. The latest data indicate a substantial drop in foreign-born workers did not translate into better labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers or encourage more workers to enter the labor force. The U.S.-born unemployment rate increased over the past 12 months..."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/11/the-us-born-unemployment-rate-rose-after-trump-reduced-immigration/

Which in my opinion, means companies gave raises to people because they're taking on extra work that was done by the people that have been met go.


You have no ability to think for yourself. You just follow the thinking orders of your favorite Russian paid Podcaster. Sad.



Inflation was higher in 2024 than it is now so no, you and I aren't needlessly paying more than we were in 2024 you absolute fucking retard :lmao

[TSA]

Lol he never reads or comprehends the word walls he posts.You are so fucking stupid it's sad.

There are two inflation gauges in the article I linked.

Volatile food and energy prices are ALWAYS stripped out for Core PCE.

Core PCE came in at 2.6% and beat expectations of 2.7%.

CPI remained steady at 2.7%.

Thanks for quoting him and showing both of you retards don't comprehend inflation data :lmao :lmao :lmao

[ChumpDumper]

Inflation was higher in 2024 than it is now so no, you and I aren't needlessly paying more than we were in 2024 you absolute fucking retard :lmao

Tell me you don't know how inflation works without telling me you don't know how inflation works.

[ChumpDumper]

I mean are we needfully paying more than we did in 2024?

Because we are paying more.

Because of inflation.

[velik_m]

These national and regional retailers went out of business in 2025

The past year saw a wave of bankruptcies, with a number of major national brands permanently closing their doors amid uncertain economic growth and ongoing challenges among brick-and-mortar businesses.

More than 8,100 stores closed across the U.S. in 2025, up roughly 12% from 2024, according to retail industry analytics firm Coresight Research.

...


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/companies-bankruptcy-store-closing-out-of-business-2025/

[DMX7]

You are so fucking stupid it's sad.

There are two inflation gauges in the article I linked.

Volatile food and energy prices are ALWAYS stripped out for Core PCE.

Core PCE came in at 2.6% and beat expectations of 2.7%.

CPI remained steady at 2.7%.

Thanks for quoting him and showing both of you retards don't comprehend inflation data :lmao :lmao :lmao

They don't understand the data or anything you're talking about. MSNBC told them tariffs are bad so that's what they believe. Blake didn't even understand that tariffs are a tax, meaning it generates desperately needed revenue for the government.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol "desperately"

[DMX7]

:lol "desperately"

Yeah, desperately. We've got $38.6 trillion in debt and much bigger deficits without them.

[ChumpDumper]

Yeah, desperately. We've got $38 trillion in debt and much bigger deficits without them.Sorry, your Trump already spent them all and more.

You got taken.

[DMX7]

Sorry, your Trump already spent them all and more.

You got taken.

Fiscal Year 2025 in Review


The federal government ran a deficit of $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2025, $41 billion (-2%) less than in fiscal year 2024.

Revenues increased by $317 billion (6%). Increases in collections of individual income taxes and customs duties due to higher tariffs on imported goods were partially offset by a decline in corporate tax receipts due to changes enacted in H.R. 1.

Outlays grew by $275 billion (4%), driven by the largest benefit programs and net interest on the public debt. These increases were partly offset by decreases recorded for federal student loan programs due to modifications authorized in H.R. 1, FDIC asset liquidations, and the Small Business Administration, which recorded a one-time loss from pandemic loans in FY2024.

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/#:~:text=Fiscal%20Year%202025%20in%20Review,than%2 0in%20fiscal%20year%202024.

[ChumpDumper]

The US government recorded a $144.7 billion budget deficit in December 2025, compared with a $86.7 billion deficit in the same month a year earlier.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget-value/news/516735

That's a record.

[DMX7]

The US government recorded a $144.7 billion budget deficit in December 2025, compared with a $86.7 billion deficit in the same month a year earlier.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget-value/news/516735

That's a record.

It's stupid to look only at one month because timing of payments played a factor in December, which your own article stated.

Trump doesn't control the interest payments increases either.

[ChumpDumper]

It's stupid to look only at one month because timing of payments played a factor in December, which your own article stated.

Trump doesn't control the interest payments increases either.Great. Show me the date your tariffs will provide a surplus.

[DMX7]

Great. Show me the date your tariffs will provide a surplus.

Did I say they would provide a surplus? I'm saying they are desperately needed to prevent the deficit from getting much bigger than would otherwise be the case.