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Will Hunting basically agreed
Link to a smart dem agreeing that Selzer is washed up
Will Hunting basically agreed
That's great that you both think Selzer is washed up. Anyone else?
granular early voting totals can be found here: Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results
seems women outvote men at the 55-57% level somewhat consistently across the country, but the split is more even in some western states.
You’re using voter registration in Arizona which is dumb. Voter registration means absolutely nothing in a state where you have so many ancestral Republicans who vote Dem and haven’t updated their voter registration yet. It’s the same reason Louisiana has more registered Dems than Rs. It’s a lagging indicator.
Arizona’s 4th congressional district for example has slightly more registered Rs than Ds and it votes for Biden by double digits in 2020. The precinct I grew up in has more registered Rs than registered Dems and it voted for Biden by 20% in 2020 and it'll likely be even bluer this year.
I think Trump is slightly favored in AZ but it's going to be very close and all the people on Twitter talking about muh voter registration advantage in AZ are clueless morons.
You're also wrong about Wisconsin tho, the early voting data there isn’t bad for Trump. I think the election boils down to Wisconsin and it's going to be a razor thing margin for whoever wins.
Last edited by Will Hunting; 11-04-2024 at 07:00 AM.
It's worth mentioning that in 2023, the early vote turnout looked bad for Dems in Virginia but the election day turnout was unexpectedly good (especially re: black voters) and it led to them winning both chambers there.
Point being that election day turnout is a giant question mark and makes it so there's little value in early voting numbers. It's the first post-COVID presidential election and there's no way of knowing what the Tuesday electorate looks like. It's likely going to have more men than liberals anticipate but it's also going to have more blacks and other minorities than Republicans anticipate.
I think Hovde narrowly outruns Trump by virtue of WOW, white suburbanites that aren't big on Trump are the most likely demographic to split ticket (though still less likely in a post-Obama polarized environment) while non-college educated Trumpers -- especially exurban and rural, are the least likely to split ticket.You're also wrong about Wisconsin tho, the early voting data there isn’t bad for Trump
So if you think POTUS boils down to WI, that pretty much means you're confident Harris is taking PA then?
No clue what she was thinking releasing such a poll
Emerson released a poll after Selzer that actually reflected the current electorate with a much larger pool and had Trump +10.
UPDATE: BERNIE MORENO TAKES THE RCP LEAD!!!
https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...rown-vs-moreno
(though, I don't see it being nearly that close, remember... non-college grad Trumpers are least likely demographic to split ticket, Moreno massively overperformed in the primary polls and won that primary in NE Ohio around Youngstown by dictator margins over Dolan and LaRose, which is the absolute must-win area for Sherrod Brown as that's where he was able to hold on in 2018 and reverse some trends there.
The massive problem for Sherrod Brown is that these new-GOP voters, which are heavy concentrated in North and Northeast Ohio, are hardcore straight ticket voters and just don't split-ticket for Senator the way the historically GOP college educated whites around Cincinnati and Columbus did in the past (most of these voters now vote blue for president these days).
Trump wins Ohio by 8%, Moreno by 5-6% imo similar to Vance.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...eehy-vs-tester
TIM SHEEHY MAINTAINS SOLID LEAD OVER JON TESTER, FINALLY ENDING THE 2006 IRAQ-KATRINA BLUE WAVE
Why are you guys caring so hard?No clue what she was thinking releasing such a poll
Emerson released a poll after Selzer that actually reflected the current electorate with a much larger pool and had Trump +10.
I'm just here to laugh at the overreaction including two instapolls coming out of nowhere to refute the original poll.
Alex Jones' lawyer?
lol
Polls
Has anyone gone back and looked at previous polls before and after for accuracy?
If already posted, i missed it.
Thank you.
Very select "Gotchya" moment?
Selzer perhaps meant at what point in time were the D and Rs polled or from among how many people is this D and R taken from.
She seems to be having legit difficulty seeing the screen.
Lol " poll"No clue what she was thinking releasing such a poll
Emerson released a poll after Selzer that actually reflected the current electorate with a much larger pool and had Trump +10.
Trump speak
one thing about VA though is the popular vote in 2023 despite not being the 2021 red wave effect, it was definitely purple and the state legislative maps there make it very hard for the GOP to win either chamber in any given year especially the state senate. I wouldn't say it's the most ugly partisan gerrymander compared to states like Illinois and Nevada (or the old GOP Wisconsin maps) but Nova is definitely overrepresented and eat a lot of the red exurbs.
I can see Harris/Kaine winning by like 3-4%, comfy enough to not worry but alarmingly close, it won't be callable for awhile because Trump will hold a pretty large lead until the Nova dumps come in.
Fraudsters caught doing the fraud thing
Why are you accusing our servicemen and women of fraud?Fraudsters caught doing the fraud thing
I've met more deer pet owners than::::
Trump+Sherrod Brown voters
Trump+Bob Casey voters
Trump+Elissa Slotkin voters
Trump+Tammy s Baldwin voters
Trump+Ruben Gallego voters
Trump+Jacky Rosen voters
Trump+C
.......combined.
split ticketing in 2024
"Kamala murdered our gay porn rodent mascot" was not on my election issue bingo card.
BTC tanking:
https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC
for some reason Dogecoin is up today, and substantially, by >5%. I'm guessing they're banking on major election memes dominating the internet, which kind of makes sense.
you'll never get a May 2021 bull run on doge and alt coins again though
BTC down nearly 4%, Etherium down over 2%. Dogecoin UP over 7.5%. Wild.
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cry...brutal-price-a
I'd hardly call BTC being within 9% of its ATH "tanking." You new to crypto Andy?
I mean, it's not 2022 levels of tank, but we didn't expect it to fall back under 70k after re-reaching its ATH a week ago and rate cuts on the way this Thursday.
Bernstein has been consistent about a Harris victory crashing BTC down to 30-40k or worse (though still recovering reasonably quickly and eventually reaching $100k and up by late summer 2025), mostly driven by profit takers from the 2022/2023 bear market and likely increased crypto regulations under a Harris regime, but that's not in line with previous election cycle times regardless of if the Dems or GOP won the White House. However, this is the first election year that crypto has really been a politically divisive issue. Bernstein is also saying a surge to 80-90k if Trump is called the winner is likely, mostly driven by FOMO buying.
I've met the same amount of dogecoin users.I've met more deer pet owners than::::
Trump+Sherrod Brown voters
Trump+Bob Casey voters
Trump+Elissa Slotkin voters
Trump+Tammy s Baldwin voters
Trump+Ruben Gallego voters
Trump+Jacky Rosen voters
Trump+C
.......combined.
It's almost time, fellas. Gonna be one for the ages. It's sad that if Trump wins (legitimately), I have no fear of violence but if he does lose, anything is possible. Especially if he's sentenced to jail time shortly thereafter.
If Trump wins like he did in 2016 or similar, there will be property crime, signs, hipsters, bad words, graffiti, broken windows and maybe some tear gas, but that's the extent
If Trump wins comfortably, the popular vote and the election, probably crickets
If Harris wins comfortably, like Obama 2008 or similar, probably mostly crickets
If Harris wins similar to Biden in 2020, yes there will be riots and possibly some violence or at least threats of such, maybe a shooting or two
If Trump wins the popular vote but narrowly loses the electoral college to Harris.... something like 270-268 or even 276-262... there will be a civil war. Imagine Trump's ego seeing people like Moreno, McCormick, Rogers, Hovde, even Kari Lake get sworn in but not himself.
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