Ike

[MannyIsGod]

The HWRF is notorious for over estimating storms so Masters giving out those numbers is somewhat sensational because they are very unlikely to verify. However, he did assign it a low probability (so if it happens I expect Pakidan and Luvbones to demand Masters issue an apology...to someone) so I guess he knows its just an outside chance.

What is likely to happen is that Ike will keep its extremely large windfield. Its a broad circulation which is not likely to shrink at any point. For instance, the Florida keys were extremly removed from Ike's center while it was voer Cuba and they sustained tropical storm force winds and actually approached hurricane force winds at times. Thats a pretty impressive observation so far from the center of the storm.

Storms with a large wind field tend to produce larger storm surges. If Ike gets up to a Cat 4 or 5 strength when it passes over the loop current eddy then you could have a Cat 2/3 storm at landfall with a cat 3/4 or maybe even 5 storm surge. Its basically what happend with Katrina.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Did you really just fight over a hurricane's predicted path?

For real?

[LuvBones]

However, he did assign it a low probability (so if it happens I expect Pakidan and Luvbones to demand Masters issue an apology...to someone) so I guess he knows its just an outside chance.

I never demanded or even asked for an apology because I really don't care. I just think it's funny how bent out of shape you get because someone other than you knows about the weather.

[Ginofan]

I don't mean to but in BUT...Manny has never said he knows the most about weather. There are a lot of people around here that praise him as end all be all WeatherManny and I guess some other people perceive that as him being the know it all about weather and think he acts like a high and mighty douche.

He never proclaimed himself as THE weather dude around here, everyone else did.

[LuvBones]

Well he sure made it look that way in this thread, throwing insults at Cry Havoc for trying to debate with him. And then he's going to bash someone else for their screen name.. really? Mannyisgod? It doesn't make sense to attack someone personally when they're just trying to debate with you.. that's what I found so pointless and funny.

[MannyIsGod]

Well he sure made it look that way in this thread, throwing insults at Cry Havoc for trying to debate with him. And then he's going to bash someone else for their screen name.. really? Mannyisgod? It doesn't make sense to attack someone personally when they're just trying to debate with you.. that's what I found so pointless and funny.

Its funny you think I was bashing the screen name. Especially when I explained it in this thread several times. You've shown several times reading comprehension is not your friend. Thats what *I* find funny.

Oh no I've gone and done it again.

[desflood]

Manny needs to be handled with kid gloves this week; his feathers are ruffled at the prospect of living somewhere the temp goes below 95 degrees with 80% humidity.

Freak.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny needs to be handled with kid gloves this week; his feathers are ruffled at the prospect of living somewhere the temp goes below 95 degrees with 80% humidity.

Freak.

LOL

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

It's 64 right now.

Bring your parka.

[MannyIsGod]

It's 64 right now.

Bring your parka.

Thats what I hear. 40 degree lows in September fucks with my mind dude. You have no idea. I have one thin leather jacket that will probably get me through 30 degrees with no wind but I'm pretty much fucked other than that.

[1369]

Manny needs to be handled with kid gloves this week; his feathers are ruffled at the prospect of living somewhere the temp goes below 95 degrees with 80% humidity.

Freak.

I'm waiting for the full on Manny meltdown when he tries to wrap "Exposed Skin Warning" around his South Texas brain.

[ShoogarBear]

Thats what I hear. 40 degree lows in September fucks with my mind dude. You have no idea. I have one thin leather jacket that will probably get me through 30 degrees with no wind but I'm pretty much fucked other than that.

That's where all that hot air will come in handy.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Thin leather jacket? :lol

Have fun with that.

[desflood]

It's beautiful enough up there to almost forget how cold you are. Almost.

[LuvBones]

Its funny you think I was bashing the screen name. Especially when I explained it in this thread several times. You've shown several times reading comprehension is not your friend. Thats what *I* find funny.

Oh no I've gone and done it again.

And what about bashing Cry Havoc? No mention of that? It's pretty clear in your fight with CH what you were saying. I don't need to spell everything out for you. Think whatever you want about my reading comprehension.. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

And what about bashing Cry Havoc? No mention of that? It's pretty clear in your fight with CH what you were saying. I don't need to spell everything out for you. Think whatever you want about my reading comprehension.. :lol

You should read my posts in this thread. I've addressed the way I insulted CH. I know that I DO need to spell everything out for you and I DID that already but, well, we've already covered how well you read.

I'd draw you pictures but I'm not that good with paint.

[LuvBones]

You should read my posts in this thread. I've addressed the way I insulted CH. I know that I DO need to spell everything out for you and I DID that already but, well, we've already covered how well you read.

I'd draw you pictures but I'm not that good with paint.

Very funny.. I guess next time I should read all your posts before daring to question the god.

But seriously.. I just didn't read much of what you said after about page 5.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm waiting for the full on Manny meltdown when he tries to wrap "Exposed Skin Warning" around his South Texas brain.

WTF do they really have warnings where you can't have exposed skin?

[MannyIsGod]

Thin leather jacket? :lol

Have fun with that.

:lmao

Fuck you dude.

[MannyIsGod]

That's where all that hot air will come in handy.

I'm gonna try to get tickets to the Skins Det game, btw. I only go to games where I'm sure the Skins will win.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

I'm gonna try to get tickets to the Skins Det game, btw. I only go to games where I'm sure the Skins will win.

Try? There are 5,000 seats remaining for this weekends game and there should be at lest 15,000 unsold seats by the Skins game.

And fuck you.

[ShoogarBear]

I'm gonna try to get tickets to the Skins Det game, btw. I only go to games where I'm sure the Skins will win.

I don't want to tempt the Karma gods, but let's just say you can probably find a way to get a nice piece of Redskins gear from DLF out of the deal. :smokin

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

I'll take that same bet with both of you.

Straight up.

[MannyIsGod]

What bet?

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Skins/Lions game.

Winner gets a hat or shirt under $30.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh I'm down. Book it.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Are you going to make a prediction on this one, Sally?

RoarYTheLiOn from MLIVE.com says...

[MannyIsGod]

NO but I'll give it a 95 percent chance that Shoog and I are sporting new gear in early November and you're 60 bucks lighter in the wallet. I leave the five percent chance that both teams are still tied at 0-0 in early November.

[1369]

WTF do they really have warnings where you can't have exposed skin?

Not can't, but there are days where you should minimize the time you have exposed skin outdoors.

Frostbite's a bitch.

[PakiDan]

Its funny you think I was bashing the screen name. Especially when I explained it in this thread several times. You've shown several times reading comprehension is not your friend. Thats what *I* find funny.

Oh no I've gone and done it again.

Dude... the angry 'I'm a bastard' act is getting a little old. Why are you so angry? Luvbomes is a nice girl, and you've shown many times that maturity is not your friend. Slow your roll compadre.

[Tu Pac]

Dude... the angry 'I'm a bastard' act is getting a little old. Why are you so angry? Luvbomes is a nice girl, and you've shown many times that maturity is not your friend. Slow your roll compadre.

its been shown that monkies dont mature well nowadays...I mean look at what happened to me

[ShoogarBear]

I didn't even know when we made that bet last year that the Lions were 0-20 (now 0-21) lifetime playing in DC.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Fuck that thing is headed straight for victoria.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Not can't, but there are days where you should minimize the time you have exposed skin outdoors.

Frostbite's a bitch.

I was in Lebanon, Indiana, last January where the low was a balmy -2. Everything that wasn't covered hurt in like 3 seconds flat.

[RashoFan]

LIVE from the EOC in San Antonio BEECHES.
Who is ready for a Hurricane???

[AlamoSpursFan]

Fuck that thing is headed straight for victoria.

What a coinkydinks...me too.

:lol

[PM5K]

LIVE from the EOC in San Antonio BEECHES.
Who is ready for a Hurricane???

http://www.denslow.com/graphics/albums/scorpions.jpg

[Slomo]

WTF do they really have warnings where you can't have exposed skin?

http://www.polartec.com/

You'll thank me later :D

[RashoFan]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current

[RashoFan]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
click on the option for the computer models...one still predicts Ike will go and wail on NOLA...:lol

[Slomo]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
click on the option for the computer models...one still predicts Ike will go and wail on NOLA...:lol

Yes, it's the "I_really_hate_NOLA" model :D

[travis2]

xrayzebra sent me this page...this is pure pornography for weather geeks. :lol

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

[Ginofan]

xrayzebra sent me this page...this is pure pornography for weather geeks. :lol

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

That's a hell of a lot of information! Thanks for sharing!

[MannyIsGod]

Dude... the angry 'I'm a bastard' act is getting a little old. Why are you so angry? Luvbomes is a nice girl, and you've shown many times that maturity is not your friend. Slow your roll compadre.

Did you get the number yet?

[MannyIsGod]

Mandy and Travis if you don't already have it google the PSU e-wall.

[travis2]

:wow

My eyes! My eyes!

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

man i thought for sure you had it or I would have linked it earlier. Its a pretty sweet page.

[travis2]

no, I'd never seen that page before...

[Shelly]

Steve Browne said he bought a generator last night. I think he mentioned that he lives in Boerne. Makes you go, 'hmmmmmmm'

[MannyIsGod]

I think at the least we'll get rain out of it. Its really really hard to pin down a landfall spot and whether or not we get much more than that because there is going to be a turn near landfall time. If it turns a bit earlier it could end up further east. If it turns a bit later it could end up to the west of us and we'd get the NE quadrant which would include hurricane force winds if the storm were to come in strong enough or at the least 50-60 mph sustained winds.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW the last couple of model runs (oz, 6z) both had upper air data fed into them from some sampling missions. They should be trusted more than previous runs.

[MannyIsGod]

6z model runs.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/06zatcflateinvest1.gif

Notice they're all grouped up close until the coast when they spread out more. Its really hard to accurately pin down turns in tropical systems because so many variables come into play. Kinda crazy how many of those model tracks go right through Bexar county.

[MoSpur]

So should I get home insurance?

[BacktoBasics]

I don't particularly want to sit in 7 hour traffic but I'm not sure I should make a decision tonight or Thursday morning/midday

[MannyIsGod]

Wait till this afternoon IMO. I don't think CC is going to be far removed from this storm but maybe the new forcasts will show an earlier turn.

[JudynTX]

Steve Browne said he bought a generator last night. I think he mentioned that he lives in Boerne. Makes you go, 'hmmmmmmm'

If the weatherguy buys a generator, then we better stock up too! :(

Shelly.....Have you stocked up on supplies yet?

[BacktoBasics]

Wait till this afternoon IMO. I don't think CC is going to be far removed from this storm but maybe the new forcasts will show an earlier turn.
Can I assume that if its still tracking for a direct or close hit around 6 tonight that it'll be too late for it to completely miss us.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah dude. Sorry to say but looking at the way all those models are lined up right at CC with the upper air data put into them is bad for you. A couple of more runs with that same output and you can be confident in what they say.

There's always the chance they're off, but everytime a new run comes out and says the same thing as it did for the last 2 or 3 the more likely its on.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I don't particularly want to sit in 7 hour traffic but I'm not sure I should make a decision tonight or Thursday morning/midday

They're opening up the counterflow (shoulder) lane today.

[Shelly]

If the weatherguy buys a generator, then we better stock up too! :(

Shelly.....Have you stocked up on supplies yet?

Of course! I was a former Girl Scout, you know! :lol

I'm waiting to see WWMD (what would Manny do)

[MannyIsGod]

Manny is debating heading the opposite way as B2B. Are you sure you're going to do what Manny does? :lol

[Trainwreck2100]

Seriously if the electricity goes out I'm totally getting a bunch of free shit

[BacktoBasics]

If I go to SA I'm running from a storm to flooding. This blows.

I expect Manny to let me know right at 3pm so I can make my final decision.

[MannyIsGod]

No way dude. You'd just ask for an apology when it comes ashore at rockport.

[BacktoBasics]

No way dude. You'd just ask for an apology when it comes ashore at rockport.Rockport is way too close. Thats only a 15-20 minute drive from here. I don't want to be anywhere near here it this goes twords Rockport.

[Shelly]

Manny is debating heading the opposite way as B2B. Are you sure you're going to do what Manny does? :lol

:lol

Maybe it should be WWMDIFSISA (what would manny do if he stayed in san antonio) :P

[MannyIsGod]

Kinda looks like the storm just finished or is finishing an eye wall replacement cycle. Couple that with the loop current its about to go over and the next 12 hours might see a lot of strengthening.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

Well I'm not buying a generator, thats for damn sure. But I'm not a richer like Steve Browne.

[SpursWoman]

If this is going to be anything like 2005 when there was a slight chance we were going to get some residual hurricane action, I highly suggest if you're low on toilet paper you get some TODAY. It will be sold out from Corpus to Wichita Falls by Friday. Book it. :lol

[smeagol]

I hear it could hit as a CAT 4.

Yikes!

[JudynTX]

Of course! I was a former Girl Scout, you know! :lol

I'm waiting to see WWMD (what would Manny do)

I did not know you were a Girl Scout. That's good to know though, just in case. :p:

We are counting on you Manny to let us know what the F is going on. :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://www.twitter.com/ksatweather

We're going to be filing updates and seeking info from people out and about about Ike. Follow us there.

[ashbeeigh]

If this is going to be anything like 2005 when there was a slight chance we were going to get some residual hurricane action, I highly suggest if you're low on toilet paper you get some TODAY. It will be sold out from Corpus to Wichita Falls by Friday. Book it. :lol

:lol I put that on the grocery list downstairs before I left the house not even thinking about it! I remember that, it was nuts!

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=127047

Thats a picture of ike at his current size overlayed where he's forecast to make landfall.

Kinda big huh?

[MsMcGillyCutty]

I'm glad I save the Sunday paper.

[BacktoBasics]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=127047

Thats a picture of ike at his current size overlayed where he's forecast to make landfall.

Kinda big huh?
That red x isn't helping me. Reload the Matrix

[CosmicCowboy]

That red x isn't helping me. Reload the Matrix

:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

There are no words for how horrible this storm is shaping up for Florida. If he drifts N at all and then recurves, he could possibly hit Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale in one fell swoop.

Or he could sweep in just south of Miami and skirt the west coast of Florida all the way up before hanging a right and breaking out to the eastern seaboard.

Everyone living in Florida should be on full alert this weekend. Ike could still go cat 4-5. Intensity forecasts have been awful this year and extremely conservative and they have him as a strong 4 right now.

Just cause I like to stir the pot a little...I should definitely apologize cause Florida is toast.

I'm sorry CH, you were right.

[Trainwreck2100]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=127047

Thats a picture of ike at his current size overlayed where he's forecast to make landfall.

Kinda big huh?

Great Scott he's coming ashore as a giant red x!!!!!!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

how weird, I can see the picture. Not sure why no one else can.

[Trainwreck2100]

how weird, I can see the picture. Not sure why no one else can.

Because it's in you image cache duh

[Trainwreck2100]

save it and rehost it

[MannyIsGod]

I'm too lazy to do that

[Flea]

I did not know you were a Girl Scout. That's good to know though, just in case. :p:

We are counting on you Manny to let us know what the F is going on. :lol



There is a lot of truth to that. I haven't been on here in forever and I came because I was wondering what Manny thought of this storm. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/txike.jpg

[travis2]

And why not, young lady? :p:

:lol

[BacktoBasics]

Manny is doing everything he can to make me shit my pants.

I'm getting pissed off with all the reports having this headed twords Houston. I need to know already.

[travis2]

Manny is doing everything he can to make me shit my pants.

Based on some of the comments in this thread, I wouldn't take it personally...

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

models are shifting north a bit. Not to Houston though. Matagorda bay if you're lucky. Just wait to see what things are like tonight. Probably wait till after 6 though. Make your decision late tonight and if you have to leave do so tomorrow, IMO.

[travis2]

Hey Manny...what cycle is everyone on right now? 3 hours?

[PakiDan]

Did you get the number yet?

Jekka's? Yeah.

[BacktoBasics]

Jekka's? Yeah.:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

Hey Manny...what cycle is everyone on right now? 3 hours?

Everyone in the thread?

Menstrual





























Naw, if you mean the updates they're still just giving the shitty updates ever 3 hours and the meaty stuff every 6.

[MannyIsGod]

Jekka's? Yeah.

You should hook it up, imo. I'm not so sure she's into divorcee's with kids though. You can shoot her the "I know all about life" line, though.

[PakiDan]

You should hook it up, imo. I'm not so sure she's into divorcee's with kids though. You can shoot her the "I know all about life" line, though.

Hey... if she's into you......

[travis2]

if you mean the updates they're still just giving the shitty updates ever 3 hours and the meaty stuff every 6.

yes that's what I meant...:lol Thx

[MannyIsGod]

Hey... if she's into you......

Last I checked I wasn't the one with the irresponsible choices littering my past. I've only been with her 4 1/2 years though. She may be into "life experts". Seriously, she'll love the divorced with kids angle. Give her a call.

BTW, I'm sure she'll love you using her to get to me. I'm sure she'll think of it as a sign of the maturity and tact you were allegedly trying to show me. I'm sure she won't think less of you at all. I think she considers you a friend. Or considered? Well, its apparent your decision making has improved as you've lived life, Paki.

[CosmicCowboy]

Just don't wait too long BTB...last time a hurricane hit just south of Corpus (1919) it came ashore as a Cat 1 and there was 12 feet of water in downtown...after the hurricane was over the bodies were piled up like driftwood on Whites Point 7 miles away across Nueces Bay.

[ATRAIN]

I think you 2 should just fuck and get it over with. Now the question is who is the power bottom? I say Manny on the bottom, while Paki dominates his ass!!

[travis2]

Hmmmmm...looks like Manny and CC are tag-teaming.

Better buy that TP quick, B2B...you may need it pretty quickly...

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I think you 2 should just fuck and get it over with. Now the question is who is the power bottom? I say Manny on the bottom, while Paki dominates his ass!!

Sounds like you've put some thought into this scenario before.

[ATRAIN]

Sounds like you've put some thought into this scenario before.

Yeah it first came to mind with you and Viva.

[MannyIsGod]

This thread got really fucking gay all of a sudden.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Yeah it first came to mind with you and Viva.

So let me get this straight (although with your mindset, that's a stretch)?

Not only have you thought of Paki and Manny engaged in anal sex, but me and Viva, too?

[BacktoBasics]

Just don't wait too long BTB...last time a hurricane hit just south of Corpus (1919) it came ashore as a Cat 1 and there was 12 feet of water in downtown...after the hurricane was over the bodies were piled up like driftwood on Whites Point 7 miles away across Nueces Bay.I'm pretty much just going to leave in the morning after I get my paycheck. I'm hoping it won't be bumper to bumper at 10am. Best case scenario is that this thing moves north and I get two days with the family with some mild rain. Worst case its a direct him, I'm ruined and I'm working at the gas station on San Pedro for the next 5 years.

[BacktoBasics]

Viva is definitely gay and when I say gay I mean a complete fucking asshat loser who might engage in rectal recess.

[ATRAIN]

So let me get this straight (although with your mindset, that's a stretch)?

Not only have you thought of Paki and Manny engaged in anal sex, but me and Viva, too?

Well you guys were spatting off like lovers, I thought I would help you all out. You can cut the sexual tension in this room with a knife.

[CosmicCowboy]

You should park your vette on the second floor of a well built parking garage today.

[ORION]

Just don't wait too long BTB...last time a hurricane hit just south of Corpus (1919) it came ashore as a Cat 1 and there was 12 feet of water in downtown...after the hurricane was over the bodies were piled up like driftwood on Whites Point 7 miles away across Nueces Bay.

but how was the fishing after that ?

[CosmicCowboy]

With Atrains fantasies about anal sex I now understand how he chose the name "A" train.

[ATRAIN]

With Atrains fantasies about anal sex I now understand how he chose the name "A" train.

No fantasies here, im not into anal giving or receiving. Just not my thing so go fuck a horse.

[CosmicCowboy]

No fantasies here, I'm into anal receiving. Can I borrow a horse?.

50

[ATRAIN]

50

weak

[ashbeeigh]

There's a section that makes it not look to good for you b2b. :(




Evacuations begin in Texas for Hurricane Ike

President Bush makes federal funds available for storm preparations
Hurricane's winds increase to near 90 mph over Gulf of Mexico
Special-needs people in Galveston area ordered to move to safety
Next Article in U.S. »

(CNN) -- Residents along part of the Texas Gulf Coast were starting to leave Wednesday morning as Hurricane Ike began to pick up steam in the Gulf of Mexico.

President Bush declared an emergency in Texas, making federal funds available for the state to prepare for the storm.

Officials in the Galveston area's Brazoria County ordered mandatory evacuation for one ZIP code and for people with special needs, beginning at 10 a.m. CT (11 a.m. ET), CNN affiliate KTRK-TV in Houston reported.

Perhaps more important to many in Texas, dozens of high school football games in cities and towns along the coast were rescheduled from Friday to Thursday night to avoid playing in the storm, CNN affiliate KGBT-TV reported.

At 11 a.m. ET Wednesday, Ike was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 225 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida, north of the western tip of Cuba and 430 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the National Hurricane Center. Its winds had increased to near 90 mph.

The storm is moving generally northwest at 8 mph, the hurricane center said. It is described as a large cyclone, with hurricane-strength winds extending 80 miles from its center and tropical-storm force winds reaching out 205 miles.

The National Hurricane Center indicated Ike likely would come ashore along the Texas coast between Galveston and Brownsville as a major hurricane with winds up to 130 mph. But forecasters stressed the unpredictability of the storm, which could change course at the last minute.

Thomas warned residents to stock up on nonperishable items, including pet food and diapers, and to prepare for going without electricity.

Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc issued a warning to residents of the city's West End, citing forecasters' estimates that the area could get tides of 6 feet above normal if the storm arrives there. The West End is the area of Galveston most susceptible to flooding, LeBlanc said.

By Tuesday night, officials in Corpus Christi, Texas, had called for the evacuations of special-needs residents beginning Wednesday morning. They also called for the relocation of high-profile vehicles -- including vans, motor homes, travel trailers and hitched boats -- that could hinder traffic if expanded evacuations become necessary.

The Texas Department of Transportation said it expected to open a shoulder of northbound Interstate 37 to traffic -- from coastal Corpus Christi to U.S. 281 roughly 80 miles inland -- on Wednesday morning to help people trying to leave the city.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry put 7,500 National Guard members on standby Tuesday, his office said.

Ike's center left western Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, having hit it with 75-mph winds, high surf and torrential rains in its second Cuban landfall in three days, the hurricane center said.

Evacuations appeared to have saved lives on the island nation. Four deaths were reported from the storm, according to the Cuban government. The Cuban Civil Defense brought buses or trucks to take people to shelters. See the damage from the storm »

Cuban state television reported that two people were killed when they tried to remove an antenna, The Associated Press said. One man died when a tree crashed into his home, and a woman died when her home's roof collapsed, according to the AP.

The storm shredded hundreds of homes and caused some dilapidated buildings in Havana's older areas to collapse, the AP reported. Watch as winds and waves pound Cuba »

The United States, which provided $100,000 in emergency aid to communist-run Cuba through private aid agencies after Hurricane Gustav hit the island August 30, said Tuesday that it was considering additional emergency aid for Cuba because of Ike.

Also, the United States said it will lift restrictions on cash and humanitarian assistance sent to Cuba for the next 90 days. That will allow nongovernmental organizations to provide assistance and cash donations. Watch what Ike did to Cuba

As the storm spun away from Cuba, it spawned a tornado in Key Largo, Florida, that damaged cars, homes, boats and trees, CNN affiliate WPLG reported.

The storm earlier pounded Grand Turk Island in the Turks and Caicos chain, putting a strain on the Caribbean nation's tourism industry.

Flooding and rains from Ike's outer bands have been blamed for 70 deaths in Haiti. Watch the devastating aftermath »

That country's death toll from four recent major storms -- Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike -- rose to 341, said Abel Nazaire, deputy head of Haiti's Civil Protection Service.

Copyright 2008 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report.

[CosmicCowboy]

Back to topic. The latest GFS run has Ike moving about 60 miles further North which puts it just East of Corpus.

[ATRAIN]

Back to topic. The latest GFS run has Ike moving about 60 miles further North which puts it just East of Corpus.

its going to hit you head on too isnt it?

[mrsmaalox]

What is it about hurricanes that brings out the testosterone laden, alpha males around here?! :lol @ all the gay smack.

[MannyIsGod]

The latest GFDL just shifted WAY north. It is predicting a Houston area landfall.

Could be good news for B2B and bad news for a whole lot of others.

[MannyIsGod]

For the record, I don't buy into the northern shift just yet. Not based on that one model anyway.

[ATRAIN]

For the record, I don't buy into the northern shift just yet. Not based on that one model anyway.

Its still possible for more of a Northern shift right like up to New Orleans area right?

[BacktoBasics]

I like lots of pictures Manny.


I can't believe they can't narrow it down under 200 miles 60 hours before landfall.

[I Love Me Some Me]

Just looking at the motion, it certainly seems a northern shift is coming.

[ATRAIN]

Just looking at the motion, it certainly seems a northern shift is coming.

Maybe it will shift and hit New Orleans, make a loop around and hit it again.

[PakiDan]

Last I checked I wasn't the one with the irresponsible choices littering my past. I've only been with her 4 1/2 years though. She may be into "life experts". Seriously, she'll love the divorced with kids angle. Give her a call.

BTW, I'm sure she'll love you using her to get to me. I'm sure she'll think of it as a sign of the maturity and tact you were allegedly trying to show me. I'm sure she won't think less of you at all. I think she considers you a friend. Or considered? Well, its apparent your decision making has improved as you've lived life, Paki.


Dude... I don't consider my past riddled with mistakes... and just FYI- I hope you and Jekka have a long and happy life together. I didn't like the way you made comments about my comprehensive abilities, I was just tagging back. Man, are you like this with her?

Also - if Jekka is so superficial that she would not want a friend that has been divorced, than well.... Let me rephrase that, it concerns me that you would think your girlfriend of 4 years is so superficial... wow.

[PakiDan]

I think you 2 should just fuck and get it over with. Now the question is who is the power bottom? I say Manny on the bottom, while Paki dominates his ass!!

:lol:lol - I love me some Manny ass!!!!

[ATRAIN]

:lol:lol - I love me some Manny ass!!!!

Ill make sure and let 2Blonde know that. She is mine now!!

[MannyIsGod]

I like lots of pictures Manny.


I can't believe they can't narrow it down under 200 miles 60 hours before landfall.

its the timing of the turn and the shape of the coast thats fucking things up. They forecast is really really solid up until its right off the coast. The thing is the way the bend in the coast is there it obviously doesn't take much of a turn to send it 200 miles further down the road.

12z Euro should come out soon. If it hasn't shifted then I would pretty much disregard the GFDL.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Can I have Jekka's number?

[ATRAIN]

Can I have Jekka's number?

:wow:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

Can I have Jekka's number?

:lmao
:depressed:ihit

[PakiDan]

Can I have Jekka's number?


Now's the right time to ask!....

[MannyIsGod]

Dude... I don't consider my past riddled with mistakes... and just FYI- I hope you and Jekka have a long and happy life together. I didn't like the way you made comments about my comprehensive abilities, I was just tagging back. Man, are you like this with her?

Your free to post whatever you want - I don't need or want explanations. Thats your department. You can fire back whatever you want at me. You can call me fat, make fun of my ears, call my a monkey, say I'm a douche, say I'm a know it all, or just flat out call me a dickhead and its not going to phase me or change the way I post. You're not the first person I've argued with on here and you're not the last.

But I know Jess hates it when people bring her name up when they're arguing with me. Keep that in mind.

Am I like this with her? No, Paki. She doesn't demand I apologize to people because I'm wrong when I'm not even wrong. She actually knows how to read.

[ATRAIN]

Am I like this with her? No, Paki. She doesn't demand I apologize to people because I'm wrong when I'm not even wrong. She actually knows how to read.

:wow

[MannyIsGod]

Euro hasnt' shifted at the 12z mark. Dunno what to tell you B2B other than pay attenion to the forecasts from the NHC. I dunno how they're going to handle this with evacs. Houston may need to evac but CC may need to evac and they don't have that much time to say who.

[ATRAIN]

Euro hasnt' shifted at the 12z mark. Dunno what to tell you B2B other than pay attenion to the forecasts from the NHC. I dunno how they're going to handle this with evacs. Houston may need to evac but CC may need to evac and they don't have that much time to say who.

When is landfall expected Manny?

[MannyIsGod]

I dunno man - 50-70 hours I guess depending on speed across the gulf.

[MsMcGillyCutty]

I can't believe how many people are stocking up at heb already.

[PakiDan]

Your free to post whatever you want - I don't need or want explanations. Thats your department. You can fire back whatever you want at me. You can call me fat, make fun of my ears, call my a monkey, say I'm a douche, say I'm a know it all, or just flat out call me a dickhead and its not going to phase me or change the way I post. You're not the first person I've argued with on here and you're not the last.

But I know Jess hates it when people bring her name up when they're arguing with me. Keep that in mind.

Am I like this with her? No, Paki. She doesn't demand I apologize to people because I'm wrong when I'm not even wrong. She actually knows how to read.

I never called you any of those things.... someone has a God complex.

[ATRAIN]

I dunno man - 50-70 hours I guess depending on speed across the gulf.

So the RGV is going to get the outer bands right?

[PakiDan]

I never called you any of those things.... someone has a God complex.

... and your right... I don't know how to read. I just know how to throw elementary school insults at people. I'm rubber, you're glue, whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to you.

[Trainwreck2100]

If we are giving out Jekka's number can i get it to. Just to say whats up I swear

[BacktoBasics]

Euro hasnt' shifted at the 12z mark. Dunno what to tell you B2B other than pay attenion to the forecasts from the NHC. I dunno how they're going to handle this with evacs. Houston may need to evac but CC may need to evac and they don't have that much time to say who.Well my plan is to move out around 6 tomorrow morning. I'm praying that the highways won't be overly congested on my way out.

[ATRAIN]

If we are giving out Jekka's number can i get it to. Just to show her whats up I swear

fixed


Cock pics

[ATRAIN]

Well my plan is to move out around 6 tomorrow morning. I'm praying that the highways won't be overly congested on my way out.

Hey man I know CC isnt that big like Houston, but make sure you fill up and have a extra gas can just in case. Houston ran out of gas a few years back and people were stuck on the side of the road.

[MannyIsGod]

The states made arrangements so that all the gas stations are properly stocked. Hopefully it comes ashore in between Corpus and Houston. Sucks for Victoria, but that would probably be the best case scenario right now.

[ATRAIN]

The states made arrangements so that all the gas stations are properly stocked. Hopefully it comes ashore in between Corpus and Houston. Sucks for Victoria, but that would probably be the best case scenario right now.

Yeah lets hope.

[MannyIsGod]

Well my plan is to move out around 6 tomorrow morning. I'm praying that the highways won't be overly congested on my way out.

You'd have plenty of time if you leave then. Shit, you'd have plenty of time if you left Early Friday. Which way are you headed? Going south torward the Valley is safe as well. Just don't head torwards Houston. :lol

[leemajors]

The states made arrangements so that all the gas stations are properly stocked. Hopefully it comes ashore in between Corpus and Houston. Sucks for Victoria, but that would probably be the best case scenario right now.

yeah that's where my parents are. my dad could get hit at his ranch in three rivers, his beach house in rockport, or his home in v-town. no win.

[BacktoBasics]

Victoria is almost worthless to begin with.

[MannyIsGod]

Trainwreck can have Jekka's number. He's not a sexual threat.

[BacktoBasics]

You'd have plenty of time if you leave then. Shit, you'd have plenty of time if you left Early Friday. Which way are you headed? Going south torward the Valley is safe as well. Just don't head torwards Houston. :lol
Rio Grande would be idea but I'm just too lean to get into a hotel for 4 or 5 days. I have family in SA. I can ride out some flooding in lieu of a Hurricane any day.

[Shelly]

Trainwreck can have Jekka's number. He's not a sexual threat.

Since I know Jekka is a lush, I would LOVE to have her number also!

K thanx!

[smeagol]

Victoria is almost worthless to begin with.

More than one poster will take offense on your comment . . .

[MannyIsGod]

yeah that's where my parents are. my dad could get hit at his ranch in three rivers, his beach house in rockport, or his home in v-town. no win.

Richers!

Nah, the Three Rivers ranch is as safe as anything. The beach house in Rockport is on stilts I'd imagine, so it just depends on how high the surge and surf are there. Its not really safe there and the home in Vtown is pretty much in the same situation except its more in danger from winds.

Sorry man, get everything boarded up and get them out of Victoria by Friday.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

what category is Ike now?

[ATRAIN]

Victoria is almost worthless to begin with.

It pretty much is. I dated a ho from Victoria once. Stupid Bitch!!

[MannyIsGod]

Rio Grande would be idea but I'm just too lean to get into a hotel for 4 or 5 days. I have family in SA. I can ride out some flooding in lieu of a Hurricane any day.

I don't blame you about the hotel man. It can get expensive.

I think you'll come out of this OK. If not we'll do a Spurstalk for humanity thing and build you a one bedroom house out of your old house for free. Unless Ike washes it away. Then you might have no choice but to life coach for food.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Can I have Shelly's number too?

[Phenomanul]

I may go to Monterrey Mexico.

[ORION]

Trainwreck can have Jekka's number. He's not a sexual threat.

:lol:lol:lol

[BacktoBasics]

I don't blame you about the hotel man. It can get expensive.

I think you'll come out of this OK. If not we'll do a Spurstalk for humanity thing and build you a one bedroom house out of your old house for free. Unless Ike washes it away. Then you might have no choice but to life coach for food.I've always said that my mouth feeds many.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

I've always said that my mouth feeds many.

Using the long tees now, eh?

[Brutalis]

Fuck off you stupid bitch hurricane. Go fuck with Louisiana and leave Texas the fuck alone. Fucking my shit up. Bitch.

Hoe bitch.

[leemajors]

Victoria is almost worthless to begin with.

which is why i got out as soon as i could. that being said, is corpus any better?

[leemajors]

More than one poster will take offense on your comment . . .

no one from victoria would argue it's the place to be.

[BacktoBasics]

which is why i got out as soon as i could. that being said, is corpus any better?I'll never leave this town and this is coming from someone who lived in SA for years and fell in love with the Dallas area.

Its a backasswards town but I love living here. The bluehairs hate growth unless its minimal and the traffic is nearly nonexistant. Decent food and half the year the women are dressed in swimsuits and short shorts.

Bored in this town: Yes but take a 20 minute trip to Walmart and its like a walking Cinemax late night show. The cops aren't dicks here either. They fry bigger eggs in this town, I've never recieved a ticket for stupid shit like lane change violations, inspection stickers.....they simply don't waste their time with stupid pointless shit.

The fishing is amazing here.

[CosmicCowboy]

Crazy shit...the models still aren't tightening up...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

[AlamoSpursFan]

which is why i got out as soon as i could. that being said, is corpus any better?

Of course it is...Corpus has Snoopy's.

[BacktoBasics]

Of course it is...Corpus has Snoopy's.
I'm still pissed off about the fact that they don't take credit cards. I hate having to hit up an ATM if I want to eat there.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Really? I could have sworn I used my card last time I was there...of course it's been a couple of years now.

[CosmicCowboy]

Of course it is...Corpus has Snoopy's.

and the Executive Surf club...

[Das Texan]

so i guess its gonna rain on the northwest side on saturday huh?

[MannyIsGod]

NHC now calling for a cat four at landfall. So really, with those winds its goign to affect so much of Texas its not funny. If it comes ashore near Victoria as they have it doing right now, we're going to get TS force winds in San Antonio easy and depending on the track we'll get hurricane force winds.

[BacktoBasics]

NHC now calling for a cat four at landfall. So really, with those winds its goign to affect so much of Texas its not funny. If it comes ashore near Victoria as they have it doing right now, we're going to get TS force winds in San Antonio easy and depending on the track we'll get hurricane force winds.
Do you think its more likely to move north or south from here?

[JudynTX]

NHC now calling for a cat four at landfall. So really, with those winds its goign to affect so much of Texas its not funny. If it comes ashore near Victoria as they have it doing right now, we're going to get TS force winds in San Antonio easy and depending on the track we'll get hurricane force winds.

Manny....is this heading towards Medina Lake? I have property there.

[CosmicCowboy]

This thing will cover up Texas by the time it hits...

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/Hanna/IKE/latest.jpg

[Das Texan]

wtf..


cnn just mentioned victoria, houston, austin and not san antonio?


wtf?


assholes.



maybe i'll get a new roof out of this..

[1369]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008


THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

[1369]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102100
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cry Havoc]

NHC now calling for a cat four at landfall. So really, with those winds its goign to affect so much of Texas its not funny. If it comes ashore near Victoria as they have it doing right now, we're going to get TS force winds in San Antonio easy and depending on the track we'll get hurricane force winds.

I'm still having major internet problems here, hence my lack of posting in this thread, but that's a really really bad sign.

Manny, what do you think? Will Ike manage to hit cat 5 for a while? If it's cat 4 at landfall that probably means he's weakening as he comes ashore.

All indicators right now are for explosive deepening. He's got warm eddies to feed from and his feeder bands are nearly as wide as the entire Gulf right now.

EVERYONE living on the coast of Texas is likely to feel this storm in some shape or fashion. I'd say those that live in Houston should get ready to make an exit if this track keeps sliding northward.
In short, he's one of the most well-constructed Category 2 hurricanes I've ever seen. He won't be cat 2 for long.

[Ginofan]

Looks like San Antonio is going to be fucking packed this weekend...I'm holing up. Eff going out in that weather and traffic this weekend.

[jman3000]

so is a roadtrip to houston this sunday out of the question?

[GuerillaBlack]

so is a roadtrip to houston this sunday out of the question?

You never know...

A Freeport to TX/LA landfall is looking a LOT more likely now. No two storms are the same, but the same conditions for Ike happened with Rita. Ike is at the EXACT same spot now (three days before landfall) that Rita was. In fact, both were Wednesdays. This was about the time people started leaving Houston and it was announced we had no school for a week (Katy ISD).

Check this out (Rita is the lighter shade):

http://www.zerozero8.com/ike_rita.jpg

Rita historical is inline with Ike, too: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

so is a roadtrip to houston this sunday out of the question?

Not at all. You could carpool with the Red Cross.

[Cry Havoc]

Pressure in Ike has now been recorded at 952 mb. As far as pressure goes, Ike is already nearing Cat 4 intensity.

[21GoSpursGo9]

How much is the RGV going to be affected by this?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn that thing is massive. I'm afraid the coast is going to get fucked up hard (and quite a ways inland too).

[GuerillaBlack]

http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll274/MapTeam/2qnctvn.gif

[Buddy Holly]

It's beautiful yet terrifying all at the same time.

[Cry Havoc]

Guerrilla, that's a fantastic image. Look at those cloud tops just exploding near the eye.

[Cry Havoc]

Internal pressure now 947 mb! He's almost cat 4 by pressure!

Watch the wind speeds steadily increase tonight.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 23:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Ike1
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 23:06:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°37'N 86°12'W (24.6167N 86.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 278 miles (447 km) to the W (271°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,660m (8,727ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 318° at 68kts (From the NW at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:33:00Z
Maximum Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:23:00Z

Hey Manny, think he's annular? :lmao

[ShoogarBear]

Ill make sure and let 2Blonde know that. She is mine now!!

Fat chance, assdoodle.












Wow, hurricanes really do get the ole testosterone surging!

[ShoogarBear]

Can I have Jekka's number?

:lmao

Out of sight, out of mind . . .

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Victoria is fucked

[21GoSpursGo9]

:depressed:depressed This is going to suck ass. I live in San Benito and Dolly did it's share of damage via flooding. This is going to be a serious disaster.:depressed

[21GoSpursGo9]

For years I called the speculation of hurricanes hitting the valley (during my existance that is) nothing but bullshit. :(

[Buddy Holly]

:depressed:depressed This is going to suck ass. I live in San Benito and Dolly did it's share of damage via flooding. This is going to be a serious disaster.:depressed

Living in San Benito doesn't suck ass already? :p:

[Cry Havoc]

For years I called the speculation of hurricanes hitting the valley (during my existance that is) nothing but bullshit. :(

Why?

Hurricanes aren't less prone to hit areas of differential elevation.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

TxDOT is lifting tomorrow's contraflow order because the latest track has it moving north.

[bostonguy]

Living in San Benito doesn't suck ass already? :p:

[ATRAIN]

:depressed:depressed This is going to suck ass. I live in San Benito and Dolly did it's share of damage via flooding. This is going to be a serious disaster.:depressed





What the FUCK!!! How the hell did 2 posters from San Benito get on here without my knowledge??? Also the internet hasnt made it down to San Benito yet, thats why I dont post when I visit my parents.

[Heath Ledger]

This thing will cover up Texas by the time it hits...

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/Hanna/IKE/latest.jpg

That picture is uber sexy.

[mookie2001]

get them out of Victoria by Friday.i remember when rita was projected four days before to hit my playground you said the same thing and scoffed the people who stayed. its way too early to project, unless one is sickly, invalid or a neocon they should wait until the saturday advocate comes out. well known fact victoria has oppressive floods every few years the people there are hard to kill

[mookie2001]

theyre even gonna cancel the texas game for this bullshit, more because of traffic and police state priority than weather

[ShoogarBear]

theyre even gonna cancel the texas game for this bullshit, more because of traffic and police state priority than weather

Too bad. I hear Vince may be coming back to see if he has any eligibility left.

[MannyIsGod]

Mookie if it comes ashore in near Victoria I'll go kick it with you.

CH is right, the pressure is extremely low for a Cat 2 storm. But thats because the wind field is so fucking huge. TS winds 200 miles from the center! Thats HUGE. I've been out of the loop so I'm not sure what the storm is doing now. I do know that the 0z runs will have more upper air data so they will be even more accurate. Can't wait for thsoe to see what they say.

[Cry Havoc]

Ike is now nearly as large as Katrina was. If he clears out and develops an eye overnight.... lookout.

[Das Texan]

i dont buy Ike hitting closer to Houston than Corpus yet.

[MannyIsGod]

10pm track shows an almost direct hit on Houston.

[MannyIsGod]

I'll buy it with the next model runs but really the new track makes a lot of sense. Really you have to focus on the cone though. I can't stress enough how important it is for people to focus on the cone and not the middle path.

[MannyIsGod]

B2B - i wouldn't plan to leave tomorrow morning. Maybe in the afternoon, but nto tomorrow.

[MannyIsGod]

not tomorrow morning i mean

[traitoravery]

Didnt this same shit happen with Katrina...everyone thought it was going for Texas and then it went straight fo NO.

[GuerillaBlack]

Ike is moving to the NW at 7 MPH. This means that a hit west/south of Galveston is becoming less likely. A hit the the east of Galveston is looking a lot more likely. Also, Ike is at the same place (same time, same latitude, same day, same projection) as Rita was. Look where Rita made landfall. Also:

Here's a good overview:

Image: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/satellite/north_atlantic/hiresir/0809110015.jpg

Animation: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?satellite+jpg+10tttt+1200+1600+north_atla ntic+hiresir

You see that blob out there to the right? That's supposedly Josephine trying to get itself back together.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn, hitting the Houston ship channel would be the suck.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I'll buy it with the next model runs but really the new track makes a lot of sense. Really you have to focus on the cone though. I can't stress enough how important it is for people to focus on the cone and not the middle path.

what the fuck is the cone if its not the middle

[slayermin]

All I want to know is are they gonna cancel the Margarita Pour off or not?

[Trainwreck2100]

This thing will cover up Texas by the time it hits...

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/Hanna/IKE/latest.jpg

Authorities have contacted this man

http://img5.allocine.fr/acmedia/rsz/434/x/x/x/medias/nmedia/18/35/21/02/18378373.jpg

[Brutalis]

Authorities have contacted this man

http://img5.allocine.fr/acmedia/rsz/434/x/x/x/medias/nmedia/18/35/21/02/18378373.jpg

But you said 'man'

[Sapphire]

All I want to know is are they gonna cancel the Margarita Pour off or not?

Not cancelled, but pushed back a week.

Event KISS Margarita Pour-Off
Date of Event 9/13/2008
Time of Event
Location Sunken Garden Theater
City San Antonio
Cancelled No
Moved Yes
New Date 9/20/2008
New Time 2:00 PM
NewLocation Sunken Garden Theater

Here's a link for cancellations:
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/storm/Ike_Cancellations.html

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn this thing takes up half the fucking Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/satir_24.gif


Link to animated image:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/satellite/north_atlantic/hiresir/0809110345.jpg

Damn.

Another good link (and can see the Atlantic)

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?satellite+jpg+10tttt+1200+1600+north_atla ntic+hiresir

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

:lmao

Out of sight, out of mind . . .

:stirpot:

http://i37.tinypic.com/kd64cl.jpg

:rollin

[Jekka]

You people make my head hurt.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh...

Shit....


I wonder if I can exhange my air fare.....

[Das Texan]

Oh...

Shit....


I wonder if I can exhange my air fare.....



nobody cares about your quarrels with your woman.


:lol

[PakiDan]

Sorry... my fault, I'm sure she knows this.

[CuckingFunt]

So, then, today we've learned that Ike is a big mofo, hurricanes get the men folk all riled up, and DGLF is both an eco-vandal and a sexual threat.

[MannyIsGod]

So, then, today we've learned that Ike is a big mofo, hurricanes get the men folk all riled up, and DGLF is both an eco-vandal and a sexual threat.

He's scared of me though. Rumor is he's leaving the continent while I head to his area. Who can blame him?

[Many PackYao]

Anybody here live or have family in the Houston area? If so, are they evacuating or toughin' it out?

[CuckingFunt]

He's scared of me though. Rumor is he's leaving the continent while I head to his area. Who can blame him?

Not me.

Italy would be wonderful for a romantic getaw... oohhhhh. Never mind.

[MannyIsGod]

Not me.

Italy would be wonderful for a romantic getaw... oohhhhh. Never mind.

:depressed

I'm going to go drive into the center of Ike...










































Or buy a gun? :ihit

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Yeah, Jess wanted to come and I offered to pay, but she already had Manny coming up and couldn't miss anymore classes.

I'm not greedy.

[Jekka]

Anybody here live or have family in the Houston area? If so, are they evacuating or toughin' it out?

My parents are there, and they said tonight that they plan on waiting it out since they survived Alicia in the same house. We'll see how long that lasts. I think the prospect of days without AC might motivate them to check out sooner.

[CuckingFunt]

Yeah, Jess wanted to come and I offered to pay, but she already had Manny coming up and couldn't miss anymore classes.

Nice touch.

[MannyIsGod]

DLF is good. Well played sir. Well played.

[Many PackYao]

My parents are there, and they said tonight that they plan on waiting it out since they survived Alicia in the same house. We'll see how long that lasts. I think the prospect of days without AC might motivate them to check out sooner.Do they live in the any of the evac zones? Thankfully, I live in the non-evac zone (the Heights) in between I-10 and I-45. According to the experts we should evacuate last. Hopefully, they are right.

[Jekka]

Do they live in the any of the evac zones? Thankfully, I live in the non-evac zone (the Heights) in between I-10 and I-45. According to the experts we should evacuate last. Hopefully, they are right.

They're around Meyerland, I have no idea if that's in an evac zone or not.


Oh...

Shit....


I wonder if I can exhange my air fare.....
Bitch! You better be here!

[MannyIsGod]

Satellites are blacked out right now, but the storm was pretty much exploding before they went into that. It will be really interesting to see what turns up when they come back online.

I have a test at 9:30 tomorrow morning and I probably should sleep at some point but I can't freaking pull myself away from storm info.

[Many PackYao]

They're around Meyerland, I have no idea if that's in an evac zone or not. According to the evac map, they're in a safe or safer zone should I say. Hopefully they don't live next to a large tree though.

[MannyIsGod]

According to the evac map, they're in a safe or safer zone should I say. Hopefully they don't live next to a large tree though.

Surprisingly their neighborhood is full of trees but their yard is not. All the richers in their neighbor hood will get a tree through their house but not Jess' parents. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

New GFDL is out. I'm about to plot the points to find out what it says since there are no damn maps out yet.

[Dex]

So would you weather experts say that Sunday is a bad day for a BBQ?

[Jekka]

Surprisingly their neighborhood is full of trees but their yard is not. All the richers in their neighbor hood will get a tree through their house but not Jess' parents. :lol

Except for the giant Chinese tallow that grows out of the middle of the deck. At least they've got insurance.

[Many PackYao]

Except for the giant Chinese tallow that grows out of the middle of the deck. At least they've got insurance. Cool, I wish your family and everyone living in the Houston area or the Texas coast luck if Mr. Ike decides to come for an unwelcome visit.:toast

[MannyIsGod]

GFDL shifted back to the West some, but is still East of Matagorda bay and closer to Galveston.

[IronMexican]

wow, this was about the hurricane. i thought it was a 20 page thread on a raged women beater.

[RashoFan]

I checked my email from some people "in the know" and here is the latest info on the strom track:
http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c333/RashoFan/ike.gif
But it is not intended to sway those who want to evacuate the Teaxs coast!!!


:lol

[ATRAIN]

wow, this was about the hurricane. i thought it was a 20 page thread on a raged women beater.

It is

http://img170.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hikenp9.png

[Ginofan]

I looks like more likely that the Galveston/Houston area will get fucked! Do those barrier islands help out at all with the surge?