Ike

[UNCLE RUCKUS]

White is right!!!:lol
praise be to white jesus

[Ginofan]

Real quick. When I was at the UNITY conference in July and was preparing to go hang out with some friends of my close friend and roomie, it somehow came up that I get mistaken for Asian a lot.

So about 30 minutes later, we're hanging out with my friend's friend and their friends (all three of the other friends are Asian), and within five minutes, one of them asks me.

My boy just about fell out of his chair laughing his ass off.

:lmao

At least you didn't have half of your family ask TheTruth if he speaks spanish at home.


On topic: They are finally ordering people off of Sea Wall Blvd in Galveston, except for the media.

[UNCLE RUCKUS]

ha ha ha ha johnny blaze is asian why is he ashamed of his asian background so much?

[TheQuattro]

We should get a few drops of rain in SA. No worries.

[MannyIsGod]

http://governor.state.tx.us/files/press-office/ike-pc-slides/Ike-Governors-Brief-1100-1_17.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

http://governor.state.tx.us/files/press-office/ike-pc-slides/Ike-Governors-Brief-1100-1_15.jpg

[Trainwreck2100]

http://governor.state.tx.us/files/press-office/ike-pc-slides/Ike-Governors-Brief-1100-1_17.jpg

somebody done gone and spilled blue paint all over that picture

[remingtonbo2001]

LOL thats what my know it all coworker said. Then again he said a week ago this was going to Florida.

The one that's always on a diet.

[1369]

http://governor.state.tx.us/files/press-office/ike-pc-slides/Ike-Governors-Brief-1100-1_15.jpg

Learn to swim.

Sincerely,
Maynard James Keenan

[ATRAIN]

The one that's always on a diet.

lol thats not my coworker. There is one with a oral fixation, but she isnt a know it all, she is dumb and asks too many questions.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Dang, military has been contacted and asked to be prepared to assist with post-storm rescue of up to 40,000 from stranded positions.

[ATRAIN]

WOW Manny those are some crazy surge pics. So should we consider Galveston gone?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

All Dallas is getting is rain...

Dallas has an inland tropical storm warning, with estimated winds over 50 mph from mid-morning Saturday through late Sunday.

[MannyIsGod]

Learn to swim.

Sincerely,
Maynard James Keenan

Thankfully the water will be out of there by tomorrow morning. No bowl here folks.

[TheTruth]

I don't like the name Ike for a hurricane.

[Das Texan]

man there are some really dumb mother fuckers in Galveston.

[spurs_2108]

...wonders when Ike is going to shift north and head towards Galveston. Could if still possibly hit lower than Galveston and maybe towards port lavaca?

[Anti.Hero]

All these idiots driving $25k trucks through 3-4 feet of saltwater lmao.


It's amazing how stupid people can be.


cnn.com live feed is getting some great interviews. :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Gas over $5 in Tallahassee.

http://www.tampabays10.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=89577&catid=8

[SpursWoman]

cnn.com live feed is getting some great interviews. :lol



We don't have sound on our computers at work, so we've all been sitting around making up our own version of the interviews. There's a lot of "Ma'am, you do realize you are a stupid bitch, right?"'s going on, if you can imagine. :lol

[travis2]

...wonders when Ike is going to shift north and head towards Galveston. Could if still possibly hit lower than Galveston and maybe towards port lavaca?

I don't know...looking at the radar, it doesn't look to me like it's made any turn yet...

[CubanMustGo]

Jeff Masters' take (as of around noon, http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1082&tstamp=200809):

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.

The forecast
Ike's small inner eyewall has completely collapsed, leaving Ike with no eyewall. Creation of a new eyewall is being hampered by some dry air to the storm's west, and the presence of about 10 knots of wind shear. However, Ike is beginning to look better organized on satellite imagery, and may still intensify by 5-10 mph before landfall. Ike will not inflict extreme wind damage like Katrina's or Rita's. The big story with Ike will be the storm surge.

Ike's winds
An oil rig in Ike's path measured sustained winds of 125 mph, at 6:45 am CDT. Lower winds of 105 mph were occurring at the surface, since the rig is at an elevation of 400 feet. The Hurricane Hunters are still reporting maximum winds of 105 mph over a large region of the surface.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides along the Mississippi coast peaked at about 6 feet above normal yesterday, with a 7 foot storm tide observed on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. At 10 am CDT, storm tides of 5-6 feet were being seen in western Louisiana, and were 5 feet at Freeport, Texas, and 5.5 feet at Galveston. According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:


- Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 6 feet
- Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 2 to 5 feet
- Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 12 to 15 feet
- Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Island... ... 15 to 20 feet
- Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet


NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--by about 4 pm CDT today, and remain that strong for about 24 hours. Category 1 hurricane force winds of about 75-85 mph will affect the city for about an 8-hour period from midnight to 8 am on Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage. The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

Winds and damage in Houston should will be slightly greater than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. Alica had higher winds at landfall, but was a smaller storm that weakened relatively quickly inland. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm. During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph. The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably be sustained at 85-90 mph at Houston Hobby, and 75-80 mph at Houston International Airport.

A good guess on what kind of winds inland areas will experience can be had by using the Inland Wind Model developed by NOAA scientists Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan. This simple model shows the expected winds inland from the coast for the five Category hurricanes moving at different speeds. Plotted below (Figure 2) is the inland wind model plot that best fits the type of winds I expect will penetrate inland from Ike. I think Ike will be a strong Category 2 hurricane moving at about 15 mph at landfall, but the hurricane's strongest winds will penetrate farther inland than is typical due to the huge size of the storm. Thus, I picked a slightly stronger storm with a higher forward speed to base my inland wind estimate on. I expect hurricane force winds of 74 mph will penetrate about 110 miles inland, near the cities of Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston, and not quite reaching Lufkin. We can expect Ike to cause the largest and longest-lived power outage in Texas history, with power knocked out along a 200-mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana extending 300 miles inland to I-20. Dallas will be at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.

Tornadoes from Ike
Texas hurricanes have a history of producing strong tornadoes. Hurricane Alica spawned 23 tornadoes when it hit, including one strong F2 tornado. Hurricane Carla of 1961 unleashed 26 tornadoes, including the only violent F4 tornado ever spawned by a hurricane. The tornado hit Galveston, killing between 6 and 12 people.

Rain
Heavy rain from Ike will be the least of Texas' concerns, since the hurricane is not expected to stall, and will move quickly northwards out of the state by Sunday. The latest NOAA/HPC rain forecast (Figure 3) predicts the swath of heaviest rains of six inches or more will cover an area about 100 miles square.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[remingtonbo2001]

...wonders when Ike is going to shift north and head towards Galveston. Could if still possibly hit lower than Galveston and maybe towards port lavaca?

I suspect it will come in just south of Galveston, maybe 15-20 miles.

[SpursWoman]

I don't know...looking at the radar, it doesn't look to me like it's made any turn yet...


It's not expected to until tonight sometime ...

[1Parker1]

Stay safe guys!

[CosmicCowboy]

I suspect it will come in just south of Galveston, maybe 15-20 miles.

Thats my call too and thats WORSE for Galveston and all the communities around Galveston Bay than a direct hit.

[spurs_2108]

Is the feed from the khou station taking forever to load and is buffering alot? Or is it my computer?

[CubanMustGo]

Is the feed from the khou station taking forever to load and is buffering alot? Or is it my computer?

Probably getting the hell beat out of it

[remingtonbo2001]

Thats my call too and thats WORSE for Galveston and all the communities around Galveston Bay than a direct hit.

Yep.

[spurs_2108]

Well it seems earlier in the morning the feed was coming in without any mess ups and just now this afternoon its getting slow.

[mrsmaalox]

Dang, military has been contacted and asked to be prepared to assist with post-storm rescue of up to 40,000 from stranded positions.

Just passed a huge-ass convoy heading south on 281.

[ashbeeigh]

Did y'all hear the buses in Spring Branch couldn't make it back to Port SA because of the wind? I haven't been outside today..how windy is it..really?

[CubanMustGo]

Well it seems earlier in the morning the feed was coming in without any mess ups and just now this afternoon its getting slow.

More demand, same supply = buffering and retries

[spurs_2108]

^ Yah thats it. Well is anyone else watching it and doing the same thing? It probably is our internet though. Youtube takes forever to load a video also.

[ORION]

Did y'all hear the buses in Spring Branch couldn't make it back to Port SA because of the wind? I haven't been outside today..how windy is it..really?

My toupée flew off :wow

[ashbeeigh]

My toupée flew off :wow

:lol Really?

[ORION]

:lol Really?

and then a dog grabbed it and took off

[CosmicCowboy]

Models just updated. Looks like Ike is gonna hit just south of Galveston/Galveston Bay which is absolute worst case scenario because it is gonna put the absolute highest surge right over the island and into the bay...

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model_zoom.gif

[MannyIsGod]

sIt is really fucking windy. I'm downtown right now but when I was biking to SAC into it it was pretty much hell. I only think its around 20mph but I know high profile vehicles in cross winds suck ass. I drove an SUV from the valley right before Hurricane Bret into 30-35 mph winds and it fucking SUCKED.

[MannyIsGod]

Man I really wonder how high this storm surge is going to be. I hope the estimates are off because 25 feet of water will pretty much wipe out Gavleston and Port A.

[jcrod]

No wind here on northwest side.

[spurs_2108]

I was downtown for lunch and It was rather windy also.

[JudynTX]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v371/ladyspur/cnn.jpg
Fire destroys homes on Galveston Island, Texas, today as Ike-spawned floodwaters surge around them. (AP Photo

[Heath Ledger]

Whats up with these gas stations gouging during a time of crisis? I thought that shit was supposed to be Illegal. I hope all of them mohammads get hung to a pole by their balls and fed ham sandwiches.

[SpursWoman]

It doesn't look like anything >5mph by the airport. At least the leaves on the trees are barely moving.

[timvp]

Wait, wut? Rain is coming?

I've ignored hurricane talk since Katrina because since then every little dust storm has been hyped into being the next killer natural disaster.

[thispego]

Wait, wut? Rain is coming?

I've ignored hurricane talk since Katrina because since then every little dust storm has been hyped into being the next killer natural disaster.

i hate this term, but...

QFT

[CosmicCowboy]

Looks like that guy just checked his policy and realized he didn't have flood insurance...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v371/ladyspur/cnn.jpg

[KEDA]

fed ham sandwiches.

As long as its Honeybaked Ham its all good!

[lurker23]

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/122031.shtml?

[ashbeeigh]

Did anyone or everyone's audio go out for the cnn feed?

[JudynTX]

Did anyone or everyone's audio go out for the cnn feed?

Yes! WTF

Hey, do you see that? Is that another fire? :wow

[Anti.Hero]

Looks like that guy just checked his policy and realized he didn't have flood insurance...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v371/ladyspur/cnn.jpg

:lol:lol

[ashbeeigh]

Hey, do you see that? Is that another fire? :wow

If we had sound we would know!!

It is a fire...saw it on khou's stream.

[mrsmaalox]

No wind here on northwest side.


It doesn't look like anything >5mph by the airport. At least the leaves on the trees are barely moving.

Not much here in Stone Oak either; trash day today and all the cans are still upright by the curb.





Looks like that guy just checked his policy and realized he didn't have flood insurance...

:lmao

[SpursWoman]

Not much here in Stone Oak either; trash day today and all the cans are still upright by the curb.


Our trash day is tomorrow, and we missed last Saturday AND this past Wednesday. I'll be sitting on the curb holding those damn things tomorrow morning. :lol

[johnsmith]

I'm not going to read this whole thread, but how many false predictions did Manny make throughout?

[CubanMustGo]

Darwin's gonna have a field day the next 24 hours, what with dopes like this one:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/weather/09/12/hurricane.ike.texas/t1wide.car.sinks.gi.jpg

Take off the Marine cap, idiot. You're embarrassing the Corps.

[CosmicCowboy]

What the hell is he doing? Trying to steal the wheels?

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/weather/09/12/hurricane.ike.texas/t1wide.car.sinks.gi.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Wait, wut? Rain is coming?

I've ignored hurricane talk since Katrina because since then every little dust storm has been hyped into being the next killer natural disaster.

The only 2 storms I've seen hyped up big time since Katrina are Gustav and Rita. And they BOTH fucked up a lot of peoples lives. But if you are waiting for another Katrina repeat, this is your storm. Galveston and a lot of cities on the coast near it (as well as Port A) are about to go into the Gulf.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Fixing a flat?

Training for the Strongman?

[MannyIsGod]

What the hell is he doing? Trying to steal the wheels?

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/weather/09/12/hurricane.ike.texas/t1wide.car.sinks.gi.jpg

Pissing in the gastank.

[Shelly]

It's starting to get a little breezy on the NW side. Breezy enough to blow my one plant over a few times.

I bet it rains at Kori's and LJ's house and not mine.

[Shelly]

The thing that pisses me off about people who refuse to leave is that they put the rescuers' lives in danger having to save their sorry ass.

[Many PackYao]

Pissing in the gastank.:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Seriously look at his face. Probably the best piss of his life.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

At least I hope he's just taking a leak. He's straining.

[MannyIsGod]

Holy shit the storm looks way better than even a couple of hours ago when I last checked.

[Mad_Hatter]

online streams: http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html
my house is basically flooded or about to be... Seabrook/Kemah area

[Shelly]

HOUSTON, Texas (CNN) -- Houston officials are telling residents to stay put because it's not safe anymore to try to hit the road to escape Hurricane Ike.


Hurricane-driven waves pound a beachfront structure about noon Friday on Galveston Island, Texas.
1 of 3

The Category 2 storm had 105 mph winds as of 5 p.m. ET, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday near Galveston, and by that time may have strengthened to a Category 3, forecasters say.

Ike is 900 miles wide, measuring the cloud cover at its widest point. On Friday, its tropical storm-force winds extended up to 275 miles -- the length of the Texas coastline -- from its center, for a total reach of about 550 miles.

Those facts didn't seem to bother the beer drinkers at a bar and grill called Noah's Ark in Bacliff, Texas, a small town between Houston and Galveston that is expected to be Ike's bulls eye.

Lifelong resident Steven Alexander dismissed all warnings about Ike. "It ain't nothing but a little wind and rain," he said, saying that he's done nothing to prepare for the storm.

Charles Slaydon, who repairs and builds boat masts, joked that the storm would be good for business because it could "break every one of those masts."

With his pet parrot, Gracie, on his shoulder, Slaydon acknowledged that it's dangerous to ride out a storm of Ike's magnitude. "There's a lot of people who don't think this storm is as bad as it's going to be," he said. "But it's a bad boy."

At the Bacliff boating dock, two boys had been fishing Thursday night. By Friday afternoon, that same dock was submerged by the storm surge.

Although Ike was a couple of hundred miles away on Friday afternoon, authorities had rescued more than 120 people stranded by rising seas along the southeast Texas coast.

The U.S. Air Force and Coast Guard said earlier Friday that because the weather had deteriorated so severely, they would not be able to rescue by helicopter 22 people aboard a 584-foot Cyprus-flagged freighter. It was trying to beat the storm heading south from Port Arthur, Texas, when it lost power about 90 miles south of Galveston, Coast Guard Capt. Bill Diehl said.

"The best-case scenario is that Hurricane Ike pushes this freighter up into shallow water where they can drop anchor and ride out the storm," said Coast Guard Petty Officer Thomas Blue.

The Coast Guard was using helicopters to rescue residents from Galveston Bay's Bolivar Peninsula. Watch: Daring rescue saves motorist from flood waters »

About 200,000 residents have fled low-lying areas of metro Houston as the powerful storm approaches.

Authorities in Harris County, which contains Houston, asked residents in low-lying areas of the county to leave, and about 80 percent to 90 percent have complied, County Executive Ed Emmett said Friday morning. Watch: Residents have second thoughts, decide to evacuate »

Residents in safer parts of Houston were instructed to stay inside.

"We've asked people to hunker down," Emmett said.

Most law enforcement and rescue officials will start to leave Friday night, Emmett said, so residents will be on their own after that.

The military has 42 search-and-rescue helicopters on standby, one official said.

Floodwaters surged into Galveston Island neighborhoods Friday morning. Watch floodwaters surge into Galveston »

Waves washed for blocks inland, the beginning of a storm surge that forecasters warned could reach up to 22 feet and bring "certain death" to anyone who remained in Galveston Bay homes. Watch Gen. Russel Honore detail the challenges of a large evacuation »

More than half of the community of Surfside Beach was inundated by 8 a.m. Friday, and rescuers drove a dumptruck through the streets in a final bid to get people out before the storm hits, the Houston Chronicle reported.

Authorities in Galveston imposed a curfew to last from 8 p.m. Friday until dawn Monday. The town of La Porte also instituted a curfew through 5 a.m. Saturday, the Chronicle reported. iReport.com: Galveston Island seawall slammed

Forecasters expect Ike to strengthen before its center makes landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Winds upward of 100 mph may reach the Texas coast by midnight, the hurricane center warned. Track the storm »

Although the weather service reports when a hurricane's center will hit land, it also says that the worst of the storm can hit before or after that.

Roughly 3.5 million people live in the storm's impact zone, according to federal estimates. iReport.com: Are you in Ike's path? Share your story

The weather service painted a vivid picture in its warning of the destruction it expects: a towering wall of water crashing over the Galveston Bay shoreline as the brunt of Ike comes ashore. That wall of water could send floodwaters surging into Houston, more than 20 miles inland. Watch CNN meteorologists track Hurricane Ike »

Latest on Ike
At 5 p.m. ET, center was 135 miles from Galveston, moving at 12 mph
Hurricane-force winds extend 120 miles from eye
Weather will get worse long before storm reaches coast
Hurricane warning in effect from north of Port Aransas, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana
Preparations should be "rushed to completion"
Storm surge expected to be 20 feet above normal tide level, 25 feet in some places

Source: National Hurricane Center
"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the peak storm tide," the weather service warned. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death." Watch President Bush urge residents to evacuate »

But farther inland, 4 million Houston-area residents were told to hunker down and stay home.

"We are only evacuating areas subject to a storm surge," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief executive officer. "Yes, we know you will lose electricity. But you're not in danger of losing your life, so stay put."

The storm's counterclockwise rotation is likely to push water into Galveston Bay for hour upon hour, battering sea walls and structures.

The final storm surge, the one that could exceed 20 feet in height, would come as the hurricane's eye crosses the shoreline. See flood projections from the governor's office »

Galveston spokeswoman Mary Jo Naschke estimated Friday morning that just more than half of the city's 58,000 people had been evacuated.

Others chose to stay, at least initially.

Helpful Information
Red Cross: Say you're safe; search for others
City of Houston: Ike information
State of Texas: Hurricane Ike updates
Blog: How to hunker down for Ike
"I've decided not to evacuate," said iReporter Matteu Erchull on Galveston Island. "We have a lot of faith in the seawall, and we have boards on the windows. Most people on the island live on second or third stories, so they don't have to worry about the water so much."

However, Erchull started having second thoughts as the sea surged in.

"There's a lot of concern, actually, because we were getting all gung-ho about staying here, and just now I've taken all my electronics and [I'm] putting them on top of the refrigerator," he said.

"There's water on my door. It's like you're all ready for it until you start to see it yourself.

"The window of opportunity for us to leave is still available, and I wouldn't be surprised if I heed that warning in the next hour." iReport.com: See Erchull bracing for Ike

Paul King of Galveston said hurricanes are part of life on the Texas coast, according to CNN affiliate KSAT-TV.



"You enjoy it 360 days of the year," he said of his Galveston Island property. "And the other five, you have to get out of town." Watch how one family plans to avoid Ike »

A slight northward change in Ike's path could spare much of the Houston area and its millions of residents from catastrophic flooding by keeping the surge out of the bay and pushing it to less populated areas. E-mail to a friend | Mixx it | Share

[MannyIsGod]

Holy shit.

They are possibly expecting a 30 foot storm surge now. That would just be insane.

[MannyIsGod]

online streams: http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html
my house is basically flooded or about to be... Seabrook/Kemah area

I'm sorry man - I assume you have flood insurance?

[MannyIsGod]

One of the Houston stations said as much as 40% of Galveston's population stayed....


Wow.

Hope they have gills.

[T Park]

One of the Houston stations said as much as 40% of Galveston's population stayed....


Wow.

Hope they have gills.


omg 40%?!??!!

Dear me.

[T Park]

BTW, for folks with DirecTV they have again put up a local station, Channel 11 in Houston is on 361.

I prefer the locals to the nationals right now.

[cool hand]

they will die

[cool hand]

http://distractiblemind.ambulatorycomputing.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/hurricane-warning-hi-res-.158930.jpg

[Das Texan]

One of the Houston stations said as much as 40% of Galveston's population stayed....


Wow.

Hope they have gills.



More morons there than I thought.


Awesome.

[Sense]

We decided to stay in Lufkin... apparently it won't affect much, there are shelters here.

[CosmicCowboy]

I guarantee if several thousand people get Darwin'ed at Galveston the media will blame it on Bush.

[T Park]

I guarantee if several thousand people get Darwin'ed at Galveston the media will blame it on Bush.

Death, taxes, bush's fault.

[Sapphire]

The thing that pisses me off about people who refuse to leave is that they put the rescuers' lives in danger having to save their sorry ass.

I don't think they're going after them. They've told people to write their names and SS#'s on their arms for easy identification........of the dead. If that isn't enough to make people leave, they deserve what's coming.

There is some bar in Galveston with about 30 people drinking the storm out. They'll be dead soon, I think. There was another picture on msnbc.com's front page a bit ago and it was some woman standing there next to the seawall with the water jumping over, and the dumb bitch was holding a toddler. Pissed me off to no end.

[Shelly]

I don't think they're going after them. They've told people to write their names and SS#'s on their arms for easy identification........of the dead. If that isn't enough to make people leave, they deserve what's coming.

There is some bar in Galveston with about 30 people drinking the storm out. They'll be dead soon, I think. There was another picture on msnbc.com's front page a bit ago and it was some woman standing there next to the seawall with the water jumping over, and the dumb bitch was holding a toddler. Pissed me off to no end.

I hadn't heard that about the SS #.

God, people are dumb.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

One of the Houston stations said as much as 40% of Galveston's population stayed....


Wow.

Hope they have gills.

Idiots. Darwin's gotta be smiling somewhere right now.

[desflood]

There is some bar in Galveston with about 30 people drinking the storm out. They'll be dead soon, I think.
That never works. Have none of them seen Shawn of the Dead?

[Many PackYao]

We're beginning to get some wind over here in Houston.:wow

[T Park]

15 to 22 foot storm surge in Galveston right now supposedly.

[T Park]

Be carefull peeps in Houston near the KEMA boardwalk.

There are seriously heavy huge amusement rides on that pier that will be dislodged.

Stay away from that area.

[KEDA]

Be carefull peeps in Houston near the KEMA boardwalk.

There are seriously heavy huge amusement rides on that pier that will be dislodged.

Stay away from that area.



Real talk, the expert has spoken!

[Extra Stout]

It's getting windy around here.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Side note, just got in and saw the radar. Damn, Ike's pulled himself together and developed a pretty nice eye. Even more bad news for Darwin's children (aka, anyone still in Galveston).

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Be carefull peeps in Houston near the KEMA boardwalk.

There are seriously heavy huge amusement rides on that pier that will be dislodged.

Stay away from that area.

Wow, I'm sure the people in Kemah would have never thought to get away from the Boardwalk. I mean it's a good solid 10 feet from the 'walk to the water...

[T Park]

Wow, I'm sure the people in Kemah would have never thought to get away from the Boardwalk. I mean it's a good solid 10 feet from the 'walk to the water...

Wow Aggie being a dickhead, I would've never thought of that.

[MannyIsGod]

15 to 22 foot storm surge in Galveston right now supposedly.

Nah - if that were the case it would be over the seawall and its not.

[T Park]

Real talk, the expert has spoken!

:lol

Hardly, but seriously, those things are 60 and 70 feet tall and are gonna get washed inland, and anyone within 20 miles of those things are gonna have those gigantic 15 20 ton rides busting through their houses.

[T Park]

Hurricane winds just jumped from 109 to 110. Seems its getting stronger and stronger.

[T Park]

Nah - if that were the case it would be over the seawall and its not.

Apologies, thats running on the bottom of the news crawler on Channel 11 in Houston.

[Ginofan]

40% of the population? Is that accurate? If so, jesus christ...there are no words, damn!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Okay, in the entirely too much information department... I've got clients in that neck of the woods. From the looks of things, here's where the Weather Channel team looks to be set up.

Mike Bettis:

Nasa Hilton (Clear Lake)

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=hilton+nasa+clear+lake&ie=UTF8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&ll=29.553001,-95.070534&spn=0.067944,0.154495&z=13

Abrams and Cantore: San Luis Resort, Galveston Island.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=galveston+san+luis+resort&sll=29.271884,-94.817322&sspn=0.004258,0.009656&ie=UTF8&ll=29.273653,-94.816926&spn=0.008516,0.019312&z=16

[T Park]

Man, we've had alot of LARGE shipments sent in through tanker boat in Galveston, and to think the area where we have gotten the items, will be UNDER WATER, is just mindblowing...

[T Park]

How the hell is Cantore gonna survive being in damn Galveston Island?!?!?

[Ginofan]

Okay, in the entirely too much information department... I've got clients in that neck of the woods. From the looks of things, here's where the Weather Channel team looks to be set up.

Mike Bettis:

Nasa Hilton (Clear Lake)

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=hilton+nasa+clear+lake&ie=UTF8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&ll=29.553001,-95.070534&spn=0.067944,0.154495&z=13

Abrams and Cantore: San Luis Resort, Galveston Island.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=galveston+san+luis+resort&sll=29.271884,-94.817322&sspn=0.004258,0.009656&ie=UTF8&ll=29.273653,-94.816926&spn=0.008516,0.019312&z=16

When I was watching KHOU earlier this afternoon, their meteorologist didn't seem to think being at San Luis was too smart...good luck to them!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

40% of the population? Is that accurate? If so, jesus christ...there are no words, damn!

There's a fairly significant portion of the island that lives in poverty. I'm not saying that's everyone that's staying, but I suspect we'll hear lots of stories about folks who couldn't afford to leave, etc.

But still, there's apparently a lot of idiots from watching the Houston TV feeds. Seeing lots of college age kids and stuff hanging out on Seawall Blvd. taking photos.

And the report about the bar being open to ride open the storm. That bar they are in is basically the dregs of Galveston. In a way, Ike's going to be taking out the trash...

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

How the hell is Cantore gonna survive being in damn Galveston Island?!?!?


When I was watching KHOU earlier this afternoon, their meteorologist didn't seem to think being at San Luis was too smart...good luck to them!

If anything happens to my future wife (Abrams) I will be crushed :depressed

To be fair, the San Luis is probably the highest point on the island. They built that place up, I'd say the first floor of that hotel is a good 20 feet higher than the elevation of the sea wall (i.e., the water would have to be 20 feet high above the sea wall to reach even the first floor of that place). It's also set back from Sea Wall Blvd. a good 100 feet or so (not that I think that helps them that much, but still....).

I just saw on the Houston feed that all the Galveston city officials are also holed up in that place on the second floor, along with the news crews. It's probably the most significant structure on Galveston Island. All concrete, built up higher, it's probably your best bet if you are on that island to survive.

That said, you couldn't pay me enough to be there right now. That place is front and center on the sea wall, it's going to be taking the full brunt of the wind and water.

[Anti.Hero]

These are the people that get just as much of a vote as YOU :lmao

[T Park]

Did I just hear right that 15 people in Galveston have tied themselves together!??!?!??!!? WTF?!

[MannyIsGod]

40% of the population? Is that accurate? If so, jesus christ...there are no words, damn!

Its just what was said on one of the streaming Houston stations so I don't know.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Okay, this guy is probably going to die tonight, but this is funny...

http://www.khou.com/video/news-index.html?nvid=282017

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

LMAO. A family of six stayed in Surfside (south of Galveston), they had them on the morning news when the flooding started. They just said they had to rescue them via CG helicopter. When they got to dry land the parents were arrested for child endangerment.

[Ginofan]

LMAO. A family of six stayed in Surfside (south of Galveston), they had them on the morning news when the flooding started. They just said they had to rescue them via CG helicopter. When they got to dry land the parents were arrested for child endangerment.

Good that's what they should do to everyone who stayed with a child during a MANDATORY evac.

[T Park]

:lmao

I can't say as if I'm in the middle of a hurricane my first thought is to walk to the beach in a bear suit.

[T Park]

LMAO. A family of six stayed in Surfside (south of Galveston), they had them on the morning news when the flooding started. They just said they had to rescue them via CG helicopter. When they got to dry land the parents were arrested for child endangerment.

Us texans don't mess around damnt :smokin

[Cry Havoc]

There are people on the roofs already in Galveston. People on top of different roofs are tying themselves together to endure the winds later on.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn.

People trapped on roofs in Crystal Beach. Sherriff's office unable to get to them, CG is weighing options due to high wind speeds (gusts to 50 mph). Idiots (the ones on the roofs).

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Good that's what they should do to everyone who stayed with a child during a MANDATORY evac.

Agreed. As I said earlier today. If you want to contribute to the cleansing of the gene pool by sticking around in a flood plane with 20' of water coming at you, fine, but don't fuck over your kids in the process by making them stick around.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Downtown Galveston (party district):

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12024-1221257240.jpg

Also reports of having to evac a hospital in Houston/Clear Lake area already due to rising water. I have a bad feeling this is going to make Katrina's death toll look puny.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Clear Lake (Houston) area:

http://www.khou.com/images/slideshow/hurricaneIke/images/0556.jpg

Kemah boardwalk area:

http://www.khou.com/images/slideshow/hurricaneIke/images/0560.jpg

http://www.khou.com/images/slideshow/hurricaneIke/images/0579.jpg

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn, KHOU chopper flyover of west side of Galveston. Looks to be about 10' of water already up in neighborhoods (first floors of two story homes underwater).

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah - and there are still hours to go. Insane huh?

[T Park]

Damn, I remember my senor trip down to Galveston and walking out on those piers with the shops.....

Sad...

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Yeah - and there are still hours to go. Insane huh?

Depressing thought is anyone stuck on GI, and what's going to be going through their heads over the next several hours as they realize they're going to die. All because they were too stupid to evacuate.

[Extra Stout]

My crabapple tree is leaning over about 75 degrees.

[MannyIsGod]

Depressing thought is anyone stuck on GI, and what's going to be going through their heads over the next several hours as they realize they're going to die. All because they were too stupid to evacuate.

I was thinking about that earlier?

I'm glad those parents were arrested. What fools.

[Jekka]

My parents are having their friends over for dinner to eat the stuff that's in their freezer since they're expecting long term power outage :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Gerber was just doing a liveshot in Kemah and those waves hitting the shore were huge. All that debris, too.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

He's trying to send video of some people they tried to help, but refused assistance.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao @ news stations using webcams and skype now. Thats awesome

[timvp]

Agreed. As I said earlier today. If you want to contribute to the cleansing of the gene pool by sticking around in a flood plane with 20' of water coming at you, fine, but don't fuck over your kids in the process by making them stick around.I know what you meant but you kinda contradicted yourself there.

[MannyIsGod]

Someone tell B2B he can go to a free movie!

Alamo Drafthouse Cinema will be offering FREE matinee features before 6:00 PM to Coastal Area Residents when a Coastal Area ID card is shown at the box office.


To assist families displaced by Hurricane IKE


All Movies before 6:00 PM Friday 9/12, Saturday 9/13 and Sunday 9/14


210-677-8500 Movie Line

[MannyIsGod]

I know what you meant but you kinda contradicted yourself there.

:lol

Man I don't even know what to say.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Gerber

ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!

[samikeyp]

Depressing thought is anyone stuck on GI, and what's going to be going through their heads over the next several hours as they realize they're going to die. All because they were too stupid to evacuate.

Nature's way of culling the herd.

[MannyIsGod]

How long till Pedobear gets photoshopped into this?

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j238/tsmith274/ike1.jpg

[Ginofan]

You better be praying for your girl Abrams, AHF...they just had a 10x20 foot section of the hotel rip off...

[timvp]

The only 2 storms I've seen hyped up big time since Katrina are Gustav and Rita. And they BOTH fucked up a lot of peoples lives. But if you are waiting for another Katrina repeat, this is your storm. Galveston and a lot of cities on the coast near it (as well as Port A) are about to go into the Gulf.Gustav and Rita were powerful storms but no where near the "Katrina but way worse", "Gas is going to be $88 per gallon", "Every life form will be destroyed" type talk that they were hyped up to be. Compared to Katrina, those two hurricanes were slight drizzles.

[MannyIsGod]

You better be praying for your girl Abrams, AHF...they just had a 10x20 foot section of the hotel rip off...

WOAH wtf? Did they show it on the WC? I just turned it on.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Damn, I remember my senor trip down to Galveston and walking out on those piers with the shops.....

Sad...

You probably inflicted strain upon the structure.

[Ginofan]

WOAH wtf? Did they show it on the WC? I just turned it on.

Yeah they just showed in on the weather channel. I'm pretty sure it's that hotel in Galveston because they kept saying "our hotel" blah blah. Insulation and such was flying around everywhere.

[thispego]

You probably inflicted strain upon the structure.

:smchode:

[MannyIsGod]

Gustav and Rita were powerful storms but no where near the "Katrina but way worse", "Gas is going to be $88 per gallon", "Every life form will be destroyed" type talk that they were hyped up to be. Compared to Katrina, those two hurricanes were slight drizzles.

Yeah but they have to warn people beforehand. If Gustav had been 30 miles East, it would have been as bad as Katrina. If Rita had followed the path Ike is taking now, it would have been as bad as Katrina.

Its more about location with Hurricanes than anything else and they just can't predict which ones are going to hit big cities that well.

They could have very easily been very bad.

I do think that Rita and Gustav were both a lot worse than people realize. Especially Rita. If Katrina hadn't just happend, Rita would have been remembered as one of the worst storms in US history.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

:lmao @ news stations using webcams and skype now. Thats awesome

I fucking love it, man. I learned about a station in Miami trying it while I was at UNITY and I brought back the idea. We've been testing off-and-on for the past few weeks, but finally got a chance to go live with it.

We've also got photogs and reporters using Twitpic so we can update our KSATWeather Twitter.

It was kinda funny... 20 minutes after Gerber did his liveshot with Skype along Kemah's seawall, FOXNews did the same shot the same way.

[MannyIsGod]

Fox News is stealing from you!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

Tell Gerber to go kick the Fox News reporter in the nuts.

[MannyIsGod]

Reports are that 60-90k people have not evacuated and are in storm surge areas. I think 60,000 of those were in Galveston. If 60,000 people stayed in Galveston then this might be the worst national diaster we've had in well...ever?

Are there really that many stupid people there?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Tell Gerber to go kick the Fox News reporter in the nuts.

They're getting out of Dodge, man.... no sense in hanging around. We're certainly not the first to try it, but I think it's great that we are.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

i heard from this dude on tpark's senior trip that he ate a thousand little jars of gerber food

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

For the Twitpic/Twitter side: http://www.twitter.com/ksatweather

[MannyIsGod]

They're getting out of Dodge, man.... no sense in hanging around. We're certainly not the first to try it, but I think it's great that we are.

Where's he staying? Probably safer to stay wherever those WC people are staying than to try to head back over that bridge in a news van.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm working on the video now... I'll post a link in a few.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Where's he staying? Probably safer to stay wherever those WC people are staying than to try to head back over that bridge in a news van.

I doubt they're gonna head over the bridge... but he's offline right now. They're trucking around in an Explorer.

[MannyIsGod]

Choose a bad time to get there IMO. Poorly planned.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Choose a bad time to get there IMO. Poorly planned.

They were in the Seabrook area earlier and then went down to Kemah... AFAIK, they're moving inland.

[MannyIsGod]

Gotcha. I thought they were on Galveston.

[Ginofan]

Manny, that hotel i was talking about earlier...it's in HOUSTON not Galveston. My bad.

[MannyIsGod]

Clearlake :-P

[Ginofan]

Oh I thought she said Houston, MY FREAKIN BAD! :lol I sure hope that San Luis hotel is built better than this one...jesus!

[MannyIsGod]

Port A is gonna get really fucked.

[MannyIsGod]

LOL CNN reporter out in the rain getting tossed around like a rag doll. Such a shitty part of the job.

[Ginofan]

Port A is gonna get really fucked.

Port Arthur? My dad has family there, they left Thursday morning though, thank God.

[baseline bum]

There are people on the roofs already in Galveston. People on top of different roofs are tying themselves together to endure the winds later on.

This may sound cold, but I don't give a fuck. Every one of them saw people die in Katrina from storm surge because they underestimated the storm. They were told over and over they faced certain death. Now, it's too fucking late, and no police nor fire workers deserve to die in trying to save the lives of these stupid bastards.

[timvp]

I do think that Rita and Gustav were both a lot worse than people realize. Especially Rita. If Katrina hadn't just happend, Rita would have been remembered as one of the worst storms in US history.Well you know more about the strength of the storms but all I know is how the media jumped all over those two storms as being cataclysmic, world changing events. Rita specifically, I remember as it was hitting land, "experts" were talking about how gas prices were going to rise up to ten times their current price. Ended up gas prices actually went down :lol

I agree with the fact that you have to warn people ... I just wish forecasters were better able to predict where storms were going to hit because otherwise you have the Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome. Numerous false alarms was one of the reasons many N.O. residents didn't evacute. They way they've set up this storm, if it doesn't cause severe damage, next time people aren't going to listen.

Oh well, I guess we'll just have to wait until the day we can just start nuking tropical storms as they form :hungry:

[timvp]

Anyways, when are we gonna start getting rain and wind in San Antonio? I need to plan how much time I have to get cars into their garage . . .

[Ginofan]

Well you know more about the strength of the storms but all I know is how the media jumped all over those two storms as being cataclysmic, world changing events. Rita specifically, I remember as it was hitting land, "experts" were talking about how gas prices were going to rise up to ten times their current price. Ended up gas prices actually went down :lol

I agree with the fact that you have to warn people ... I just wish forecasters were better able to predict where storms were going to hit because otherwise you have the Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome. Numerous false alarms was one of the reasons many N.O. residents didn't evacute. They way they've set up this storm, if it doesn't cause severe damage, next time people aren't going to listen.

Oh well, I guess we'll just have to wait until the day we can just start nuking tropical storms as they form :hungry:

There's been mentions of several different ways to try and "control" the weather...I think that is just begging for trouble. You start messing with Mother Nature, she is going to fuck you over 10 times as hard eventually.

[baseline bum]

Well you know more about the strength of the storms but all I know is how the media jumped all over those two storms as being cataclysmic, world changing events. Rita specifically, I remember as it was hitting land, "experts" were talking about how gas prices were going to rise up to ten times their current price. Ended up gas prices actually went down :lol

I agree with the fact that you have to warn people ... I just wish forecasters were better able to predict where storms were going to hit because otherwise you have the Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome. Numerous false alarms was one of the reasons many N.O. residents didn't evacute. They way they've set up this storm, if it doesn't cause severe damage, next time people aren't going to listen.

Oh well, I guess we'll just have to wait until the day we can just start nuking tropical storms as they form :hungry:

There is no way to make any kind of long term prediction of the behavior of a system modeled by a chaotic differential equation, unless your measurements are 100.0000000000... % perfect. Correctly predicting hurricane tracks is an impossibility.

[ShoogarBear]

Anyone have an idea as to when we would start to see some breezes?

I first thought that said "start to see some beezees".

[T Park]

I first thought that said "start to see some beezees".

Channeling your inner Kanye West Shoog?

[timvp]

There's been mentions of several different ways to try and "control" the weather...I think that is just begging for trouble. You start messing with Mother Nature, she is going to fuck you over 10 times as hard eventually.Eh maybe but it's already being done ... granted, on a much smaller scale. If there is a way to slow down a hurricane before it hits land, I'd be all for it.


There is no way to make any kind of long term prediction of the behavior of a system modeled by a chaotic differential equation, unless your measurements are 100.0000000000... % perfect. Correctly predicting hurricane tracks is an impossibility.Agreed, however the current system I think has a ways to go until it is optimized. And since the current predictions are so inaccurate, that's part of the danger is crying wolf too early because then you will effect how people will evacuate when they really need to. People knew in plenty of time that Katrina was going to be IT but with so many previous false alarms, a good percentage didn't believe the warnings.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

We're gonna try a Skype Livestream in a bit...

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Here's Gerber's Skype call during our 630p.

http://www.ksat.com/video/17462772/index.html

[ShoogarBear]

I imagine that the UT Medical Branch is going to be destroyed?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Gerber's videoblog about meeting a family who was trying to evacuate at the last minute.

http://www.ksat.com/video/17462900/index.html

[Ginofan]

Gerber's videoblog about meeting a family who was trying to evacuate at the last minute.

http://www.ksat.com/video/17462900/index.html

Nice of them to try and help that family out...too bad they didn't take it. And why were they trying to take all that shit with them? Man, just throw the necessities in the truck and get your family out of there as quick as possible...ugh!

[MannyIsGod]

There is no way to make any kind of long term prediction of the behavior of a system modeled by a chaotic differential equation, unless your measurements are 100.0000000000... % perfect. Correctly predicting hurricane tracks is an impossibility.

Thats basically the issue. Its pretty much impossible to feed enough information into the current global models to get the most out of them. Thats why when a storm is up they run flights to sample the atmosphere all over the area of a storm. It helps but you just can't factor in every synoptic item enough. Shit happening over CAlifornia while the storm is in the Gulf decides whether or CC or Houston gets nuked.

One day they'll have better models and better info to enter into them but until then this is all we have. They get better every year, though.

[MannyIsGod]

Eh maybe but it's already being done ... granted, on a much smaller scale. If there is a way to slow down a hurricane before it hits land, I'd be all for it.


Not gonna happen. These hurricanes release more energy than we are able to safely expend at this time. Basicaly a storm will release over 200 times the entire amount of energy generated by humans in one day.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I've got a Livestream of the Skype call until 10:35 p.m.

http://www.ksat.com/video/17460791/index.html

[MannyIsGod]

Levee fails in Lafitte

8:11 PM Fri, Sep 12, 2008 | Permalink (http://www.beloblog.com/WWLTV_Blogs/breakingnews/2008/09/levee-fails-in-lafitte.html)
WWL-TV Newsroom
E-mail ([email protected])
Temporary levees, used keep flood water from moving north in the town of Lafitte, have failed.


The levees, which were aqua levees and tubing, were set up by Jefferson Parish officials near the intersection of Canal Street and Hwy 45, close to where Town Hall sits. Around 8 p.m., the levee failure was reported.


South of the temporary levee, Lafitte Mayor Tim Kerner said that hundreds of homes have already flooded.


Ike is big.

This is Louisiana.

[T Park]

Can't wait till the politicians politic this up.

This is what Gustav was supposed to be.

[MannyIsGod]

Can't wait till the politicians politic this up.

This is what Gustav was supposed to be.

You're the only one bringing politics into this.

[TheTruth]

DAMN, turn on the TV guys there is a crazy storm over near Houston.

[2centsworth]

still the best website I've seen (30 something views)

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

[T Park]

You're the only one bringing politics into this.

??

Whatever.

[T Park]

DAMN, turn on the TV guys there is a crazy storm over near Houston.

:lol

[BRHornet45]

sons does anyone have a link to to sites with Galveston web cams?

[Cry Havoc]

Can't wait till the politicians politic this up.

This is what Gustav was supposed to be.

What does that mean, exactly?

A hurricane isn't "supposed" to be anything. It just is.

People who get pissed at false alarms should stay the hell away from the coast. Meteorologists aren't ever going to be able to 100% predict a hurricane. They do the best they can and they try to save lives. If people have a problem with that, again, don't live in a hurricane area and STFU.

[T Park]

Anyone notice now theres like a hole like north of the eye on the radar now?

WTF is that?

[TwAnKiEs]

Anyone notice now theres like a hole like north of the eye on the radar now?

WTF is that?

Its ass

[T Park]

What does that mean, exactly?

A hurricane isn't "supposed" to be anything. It just is.

People who get pissed at false alarms should stay the hell away from the coast. Meteorologists aren't ever going to be able to 100% predict a hurricane. They do the best they can and they try to save lives. If people have a problem with that, again, don't live in a hurricane area and STFU.


Well the destruction this hurricane will cause, is originally what Gustav was going to do, and thank god that it didnt.

Chill out, try not to read into too much :lol

[T Park]

seriously, its like the hurricane just developed a hole on top of the eye, its so strange

[Ginofan]

seriously, its like the hurricane just developed a hole on top of the eye, its so strange

Do you have a link or something?

[T Park]

Do you have a link or something?

No, I'm like watching this live on TV.

Sorry I'm not good at weather linking, I'll see what I can do.

[T Park]

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/doppler?section=weather/doppler&id=5750607


There's a link to a live radar and notice above the eye the hole that is now appeared.

[MannyIsGod]

Its probably the radar not able to cut through the thickest part of the storm.

[Ginofan]

They are saying on fox news that it is a second inner eyewall...

[Pistons < Spurs]

They are saying on fox news that it is a second inner eyewall...

The same was just stated on the WeatherChannel.

[Ginofan]

Is this Geraldo on Fox? He's fucking nuts being on sea wall blvd. right now.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

WTF, they're just showing him take the abuse?

:lol

Payback for Capone's vault.

[Ginofan]

I'm just waiting for him to get slapped upside the head by one of those boards from the destroyed piers.

[MannyIsGod]

I woudln't listen to anything Shep Smith and whatever met they have on Fox News say. There is no 2nd eyewall right now. I've been reading that they've given out shit info all night.

[MannyIsGod]

Wow what a fucking moron. He could die so easily its not even funny.

[spurs_2108]

Gonna feel it here at the pump in the U.S. of A. lol.

[Heath Ledger]

whos got some good live video feeds?

[CuckingFunt]

Payback for Capone's vault.

There are some debts that can never be repaid.

[Ginofan]

:lol did anyone just see the anchorman in the studio say "Yeah high and dry here in fox studio" lmao...what a slap to the face!

[baseline bum]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

^^^^ Houston tv feeds

[CosmicCowboy]

It looks to me like it couldn't sustain the 60 mile eye as it started stacking up on land and the eyewall is collapsing/tightening. I saw that hole as a chunk of the eye that just got absorbed through the eyewall. It also looks on radar to be trending WNW. Neither is a good thing for Galveston. These next couple of hours are gonna be critical.

[MannyIsGod]

Geraldo should also learn to use an ananometer. He has it set on Kmph thats why his wind speeds have been so high.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

:lol did anyone just see the anchorman in the studio say "Yeah high and dry here in fox studio" lmao...what a slap to the face!

He's used to it:

http://www.theadvocates.org/celebrities/geraldo-rivera.jpg

[spurs_2108]

Yeah go to the maroonspoon site. Watch the khou station. It should be the 2nd broadcast. If you have directv, khou from Houston is broadcasting their station on channel 261. Been watching that all night.

[MannyIsGod]

It looks to me like it couldn't sustain the 60 mile eyewall and the eyewall is collapsing/tightening. It also looks on radar to be trending WNW. Neither is a good thing for Galveston. These next couple of hours are gonna be critical.

It doesn't have an eye that big. Its actually smaller but the radar doesn't show it all and part of the eyewall is actually missing.

[spursfan09]

how do you think the rest of the country is going to view these Texans who refused to leave?

[baseline bum]

Geraldo should also learn to use an ananometer. He has it set on Kmph thats why his wind speeds have been so high.

:lol

[Ginofan]

how do you think the rest of the country is going to view these Texans who refused to leave?

Have you seen the people they've interviewed...good lord, that's the real cream of the crop there.

[Mad_Hatter]

the 2nd "eye" is from dry air being sucked in from above which actually weakened the storm.

[MannyIsGod]

I think its more likely to be just a spot the radars can't reach. Radars have a tough time getting through thick rain. Think about how your sat can't get a singal through lots of rain. Same principle.

[MannyIsGod]

Gerldo almost got swept away and he's still down there.

Wow, he's a fucking MORON>

[MannyIsGod]

the 2nd "eye" is from dry air being sucked in from above which actually weakened the storm.

Actually you're completely right. I just looked at the Sat image and its really visible there.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

Gerldo almost got swept away and he's still down there.

Wow, he's a fucking MORON>

You're just realizing this now?

I'm waiting for the feed to go black and when it returns, those two douches are gone forever.

[spurs_2108]

^ Yah I know. Fox cracks me up. Why there hell would you be right there? Gerldo also died.

[MannyIsGod]

Galveston should be spared the worst of the surge. Port A on the other hand....

[spurs_2108]

I wonder why they aren't showing any coverage of reporters in Port A or CC? I'm sure the Galveston area isn't the only area to feel the force of IKE.

[MannyIsGod]

If you look at the radar there are a ton of vorticities showing up within it spinning around. Its really really really fascinating. I have no idea what the fuck they mean other than theres more spinning there but I know that the radar tapes of this storm will give a lot of information regarding the structure of these storms. I just don't understand what that will be.

[ShoogarBear]

What channel is Geraldo on?

[baseline bum]

What channel is Geraldo on?

He was on Fox News earlier... not sure if he's still on though.

[MannyIsGod]

Shoog, UTMB has 11 feet of water in the first floor.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

We're going live all night.

http://www.ksat.com/video/17460791/index.html

[MannyIsGod]

We're not gonna really know shit till morning anyway. When the sun comes up we'll really see what Ike is doing.

[ShoogarBear]

Shoog, UTMB has 11 feet of water in the first floor.

I guess that's not so bad. I thought the island was already under water?

[baseline bum]

Shoog, UTMB has 11 feet of water in the first floor.

Are you getting this info from the H-Town stations coverage?

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah BB.

Shoog, the problem is the worst is now beginning.

[RashoFan]

Anybody heard from easjer, SFIE or Enigma? I understand part of Houston lost power...If things slow down later, I'll go back and read this posts from the thread I haven't read yet..


RF, Live at the EOC

[baseline bum]

I can't imagine living in Houston without power. I've never been to a place that felt as bad a H-Town in the summer; even Palm Springs with its 120 degree summer highs doesn't compare. I lived in Houston two years, and I never turned the air conditioner off at any time between the months of March and October.

[CosmicCowboy]

I'm watching the Houston radar live. I'm thinking this may be a little worse than they are projecting as far as surge back in the bay. Looks like the right side of the eye will just clip the east end of Galveston island. When those winds switch from east/west to south/north it's gonna be pumping that bay full of water for 6+ hours...

[Ginofan]

Geraldo is hanging on to a tree...good grief.

[MannyIsGod]

"I got pelted in the forehead - something whacked me!"

-Geraldo 2008

[MannyIsGod]

Dude - lol - he has no pride. I"d be like fuck you bitches I'm going inside.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm watching the Houston radar live. I'm thinking this may be a little worse than they are projecting as far as surge back in the bay. Looks like the right side of the eye will just clip the east end of Galveston island. When those winds switch from east/west to south/north it's gonna be pumping that bay full of water for 6+ hours...

Yeah I was looking at that myself. Baytown and Texas City are gonna get it.

[Ginofan]

:lol He was all "yeah we had to move from the seawall, it was just too crazy" YEAH YOU THINK BUDDY!

[MannyIsGod]

Wow the radar really is fascinating right now! It looks a lot like a starfish the way those vorticies are spinning.

[CosmicCowboy]

Well, I'm hunkered down with a cold beer for the duration LOL

[Ginofan]

Yeah I was looking at that myself. Baytown and Texas City are gonna get it.

And that stupid mayor didn't order a mandatory evac because of their precious levee...man I hop that holds true for their sake.

[CosmicCowboy]

Wow the radar really is fascinating right now! It looks a lot like a starfish the way those vorticies are spinning.

This monster is just classic. can't believe it's holding such a well defined eye/shape/form while whacking the shoreline with the north side.

[baseline bum]

And that stupid mayor didn't order a mandatory evac because of their precious levee...man I hop that holds true for their sake.

I can't imagine how any sane person could refuse to evacuate after watching thousands of people die in Louisiana and Mississippi only three years ago; absolutely mind-boggling.

[MannyIsGod]

This monster is just classic. can't believe it's holding such a well defined eye/shape/form while whacking the shoreline with the north side.

Its so huge that its going to take a lot of land to wind it down. It'll have a solid eye for a long time over land.

[CosmicCowboy]

Al Quaida couldn't have picked a better path for this motherfucker to follow to make sure that it fucked up the most stuff.

[baseline bum]

Man, why does Fox News have so much crap on the screen instead of the main video? I feel like I'm watching the Ow! My Balls channel from Idiocracy.

[ShoogarBear]

Its so huge that its going to take a lot of land to wind it down.

That's what she said.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

So has the storm surge hit yet?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Man, why does Fox News have so much crap on the screen instead of the main video? I feel like I'm watching the Ow! My Balls channel from Idiocracy.


ROFLROFLROFL

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Man, why does Fox News have so much crap on the screen instead of the main video? I feel like I'm watching the Ow! My Balls channel from Idiocracy.

:lol

[baseline bum]

ROFLROFLROFL

It really sucks because they have the best video of any of the networks right now.