How do McCain or Obama get to 270? [Archive] - Page 2

Findog

09-12-2008, 06:29 PM

[QUOTE=whottt;2767065]No..it isn't. It's not akin to it at all.

Obama polls competitively in two red states (ND and MONT) yet any political scientist can tell you McCain will win these states. Meanwhile McCain comes within 3 points in a single poll in NJ, yet any political scientist will tell you Obama will win that state. Yeah, totally different.

This is what happens when you give your nomination to a guy who got a royal assbeating in the primaries in these states...with the exlusion of the caucus states.

While Hillary was out trying to win big primary states, Obama was running a professional, focused campaign based on the understanding of what exactly he had to do to win the nomination. And just as McCain has run a half-assed campaign, Obama is running a campaign knowing that the election will hinge on whether he can peel off Florida or Ohio, Path #1 to winning, or peel off two of the mountain states, Path #2 to winning.
I can't wait to see California and NY.

Fucking ignorant...

Awww, whot is getting testy. You're so cuuute.

I can't wait to see California and NY.

What can you not wait to see? A poll that has McCain within 5 points? Or election night when they go into Obama's column? I remember Bush polling competitively in California and Hawaii in 2004. You truly have no understanding whatsoever of the electoral map. The race is a statistical dead heat and the election is only taking place in 13 states.

and neither voter fraud, nor media bias, nor having a million net geeks that can't get laid, on your side...is going to be able to prevent it.

Yeah, it's the Democrats and liberal "elites" that love to deal in stereotypes and engage in class warfare. Stay classy, whot.

whottt

09-12-2008, 06:31 PM

Findog

09-12-2008, 06:32 PM

State Date Obama Clinton Spread

Popular Vote Total 17,535,458 48.1% 17,493,836 48.0% Obama +41,622 +0.1%

California 02/05 2,186,662 43.2% 2,608,184 51.5% Clinton +421,522 +8.3%
New York 02/05 751,019 40.3% 1,068,496 57.4% Clinton +317,477 +17.1%
New Jersey 02/05 501,372 43.9% 613,500 53.8% Clinton +112,128 +9.9%
Pennsylvania 04/22 1,046,822 45.4% 1,260,937 54.6% Clinton +214,115 +9.2%

These are the four biggest solid blue states:

CA 55 EV
NY 31 EV
Penn 21 EV
NJ 15 EV

Hillary took over 50% of the vote in all of them.....and you guys didn't even put her on the ballot.

And Obama didn't win Texas either....or MI(as far as we know).

That means you gave your nomination to a guy who barely won the Primaries because of how he performed in the Small Red States...the most conservative States in the Nation.

That has got to be one of the most ignorant moves in history.

I wish I would have studied the Electoral Maps during the primaries...I could have told you that was stupid.

And Obama smashed her in the Red States during the nomination battle, so of course he's going to win those same red states in the general election. All of those liberal Hillary voters in California and New York are going to sit on their hands or vote for McCain. smh

In Michigan his name wasn't even on the ballot because all candidates agreed not to campaign there because they scheduled their primary before they were supposed to. Obama's base is consolidated and so is McCain's.

You're one of these idiots that think his candidate is going to win 40 states and 400 EVs.

I'm just really curious, whot, what is your final popular vote projection? What is your final Electoral College tally?

Findog

09-12-2008, 06:34 PM

LOL I bet the Obama brain trust thinks the Clintons are actually trying to help him :lmao

Tell you what, go look at Ferraro, the Clintons, and McCain...they have all have the exact same smile on their face :lol

How's Obama doing in those places Hillary's been campaigning for him anyway? :lmao

Ask me again in 2 weeks when McCain's poll numbers can't be attributed to his convention bounce or veep excitement. All you're doing now is celebrating your team winning the coin toss and marching down the field to kick a field goal.

Findog

09-12-2008, 06:37 PM

Here's my prediction, barring one of the candidates becoming incapacitated and having to withdraw, or a huge unforeseen scandal:

Obama: 278 EVs
McCain: 260 EVs

Obama Pop Vote: 49.5%
McCain Pop Vote: 48.5%
3rd Party Pop Vote: 2%

Obama holds all Kerry states and flips Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

whottt

09-12-2008, 06:48 PM

Ask me again in 2 weeks when McCain's poll numbers can't be attributed to his convention bounce or veep excitement. All you're doing now is celebrating your team winning the coin toss and marching down the field to kick a field goal.

False...that's not all I am doing.

You're the one with his head up his ass acting like this is like any other Election in American history what with your talk of convention bounces...

This is unlike any other Election in American History...and there's never been a Sarah Palin in American Politics before. There's never been anything close to her...

She's a lot more like Elvis Presley than she is any other politician we've seen before.

whottt

09-12-2008, 06:50 PM

Hey, let's give the nomination to the guy that didn't win any major blue states.

Brilliant!

And this is revelatory to me for a variety of reasons...only lefties could ever delude themselves into believing the entire political view of America has suddenly swung far left.

That is the myopia...

whottt

09-12-2008, 06:52 PM

PS: Don't get too excited bout all those Democrat Voter Registrations...lot of them are registered from voting in the Democratic Primaries...

For instance...every Republican I know voted in the Democratic Primaries in Texas this year....and not for the reason you think.

whottt

09-12-2008, 06:53 PM

How's Obama doing in those places Hillary's been campaigning for him anyway? :lmao

whottt

09-12-2008, 06:56 PM

You're one of these idiots that think his candidate is going to win 40 states and 400 EVs.

I'm just really curious, whot, what is your final popular vote projection? What is your final Electoral College tally?

And you're one of the idiots thinking Obama deserves the nomination because of his ability to win the KKK states :lmao

florige

09-12-2008, 09:54 PM

LOL I bet the Obama brain trust thinks the Clintons are actually trying to help him :lmao

Tell you what, go look at Ferraro, the Clintons, and McCain...they have all have the exact same smile on their face :lol

How's Obama doing in those places Hillary's been campaigning for him anyway? :lmao

I'm telling you Whottt, in a few weeks :lmao is going to turn to :depressed.....
for you. :toast

Findog

09-13-2008, 03:38 PM

And you're one of the idiots thinking Obama deserves the nomination because of his ability to win the KKK states :lmao

Go shadow-box with a strawman. I think he's going to win because this is a horrible political environment for the Republicans and the country is in an anti-incumbency mood. I think it will be extremely close.

I'm guessing you think McCain is going to win 63% of the popular vote and Obama will only carry Hawaii, Illinois and Massachusetts, right?

Findog

09-13-2008, 03:43 PM

False...that's not all I am doing.

You're the one with his head up his ass acting like this is like any other Election in American history what with your talk of convention bounces...

This is unlike any other Election in American History...and there's never been a Sarah Palin in American Politics before. There's never been anything close to her...

She's a lot more like Elvis Presley than she is any other politician we've seen before.

Sarah Palin is an unknown quantity and political Viagra to McCain's campaign. On November 5th he'll be lamenting that Mitt Romney could've gotten him Michigan. She is a highly polarizing figure - the knuckledraggers that make up the Republican base love her and Dems hate her. Only people whose opinions matter are undecideds. Eventually the Dems and their surrogates will stop talking so much about her and will learn to compare her to Biden and not Obama. And they'll use their females (Pelosi, Hillary, Granholm, Sebelus) to attack her when it's necessary. Vice Presidents don't win elections and she's not going to win anything for McCain. She's gotten the GOP base on board and guaranteed McCain has a fighting chance. Only if the Dems keep talking about her in lieu of ignoring her will this thing work out for McCain.

Findog

09-13-2008, 03:44 PM

Findog

09-13-2008, 03:48 PM

I notice whot couldn't be bothered to give us his final projections on popular vote and Electoral Vote count when asked.

whottt

09-13-2008, 04:11 PM

I notice whot couldn't be bothered to give us his final projections on popular vote and Electoral Vote count when asked.

Oh I've already predicted I think it will be a landslide in the Republicans favor.

I think at least one MAJOR Blue State is going to flip Red, and several others will be in play.

As for specifics...I'm simply not ready to make that prediction yet...I don't want to under predict.

whottt

09-13-2008, 04:14 PM

Go shadow-box with a strawman. I think he's going to win because this is a horrible political environment for the Republicans and the country is in an anti-incumbency mood. I think it will be extremely close.

Wow...you're still stuck in the past. Totally different ball game now.

I'm guessing you think McCain is going to win 63% of the popular vote and Obama will only carry Hawaii, Illinois and Massachusetts, right?

Popular vote is tough to call in this election.....but I figure McCain is going to do at least 5 million votes more than W did in 04.

Findog

09-13-2008, 04:30 PM

67 million votes for John McCain. Wow.

Findog

09-13-2008, 04:34 PM

Wow...you're still stuck in the past. Totally different ball game now.

Popular vote is tough to call in this election.....but I figure McCain is going to do at least 5 million votes more than W did in 04.

Okay, so without getting into specifics, I say Obama wins a close election and you say McCain wins in a landslide? Fair representation of our opinions?

whottt

09-13-2008, 04:44 PM

Okay, so without getting into specifics, I say Obama wins a close election and you say McCain wins in a landslide? Fair representation of our opinions?

Yeap.

Kinda like when I said you guys were going to be worse off after you got Kidd and you said it was going to be better...then a few weeks later you gave up.

You and Skank....

I remember you guys were propping each other...didn't change the reality of the situation.

whottt

09-13-2008, 04:48 PM

whottt

09-13-2008, 04:53 PM

By the way...in recent polls the number of people saying they are Republicans is now 1 point lower than those that say they are Democrats, this is among registered voters....Kerry actually lead that category by 2 points in 2004....he trailed however in likely voters, by 2 points, or pretty much the same number as he lost the election by.

McCain had a 10 point lead on Obama in the last likely voter National Poll.

As for blue states, I was reading on another forum, the number of independent voters in New Jersey is greater than the number of registered Democrats and Republicans combined.

Findog

09-13-2008, 05:16 PM

Oh yeah BTW, Findog...I also don't think Obama is going to do as well as Kerry did in the last election in terms of total votes.

Obama isn't that much more likeable than Kerry whereas Palin and McCain are much more likeable than W and Cheney.

And yes...people vote for who they like. Only party loyalists vote straight issues.

Obama is way more likeable than Kerry, that's why McCain was running dumb ads decrying his "celebrity" appeal and accusing him of only being able to deliver nice speeches with nothing to back it up. Kerry was another yacht-owning wine-sipping Dukakis. Palin is a highly polarizing figure and McCain generates no excitement at the top of the ticket. The Dems can break even on personality in this election. This is a "change" election, like 1992, whereas in 2004 Bush barely was re-elected despite being a wartime incumbent and facing an uncharismatic opponent.

Findog

09-13-2008, 05:18 PM

McCain had a 10 point lead on Obama in the last likely voter National Poll.

Link? Latest Newsweek poll has them tied. I would take that poll as an outlier, just like the 54-44 McCain lead in one poll right after the GOP convention and one poll that had Obama up 50-42 right after the DNC.

As for blue states, I was reading on another forum, the number of independent voters in New Jersey is greater than the number of registered Democrats and Republicans combined

Relevance, since NJ is staying blue this year?

whottt

09-13-2008, 05:27 PM

whottt

09-13-2008, 05:29 PM

Link? Latest Newsweek poll has them tied. I would take that poll as an outlier, just like the 54-44 McCain lead in one poll right after the GOP convention and one poll that had Obama up 50-42 right after the DNC.

Relevance, since NJ is staying blue this year?

Um, it's relevant because that state is trending away from Obama and is within the margin of error of being a Red State as we speak.

If you don't think that's relevant it's because you are in denial, not because it isn't relevant.

Findog

09-13-2008, 05:31 PM

http://www.zogby.com/50state/

Latest Zogby's have McCain up in New Hampshire, Penn and Colorado.

Keep in mind...Zogby is always weghted to the left and he's tended to be weighted in favor of Obama as well.

That link has Indiana and North Carolina as tossups. McCain will take Indiana and North Carolina. Obama will take NH and Pennsylvania. Only Kerry state I'm worried about turning red is Michigan, and McCain will regret not picking Romney when this thing is over.

Findog

09-13-2008, 05:33 PM

Um, it's relevant because that state is trending away from Obama and is within the margin of error of being a Red State as we speak.

If you don't think that's relevant it's because you are in denial, not because it isn't relevant.

NJ is going for Obama. There was a state poll at one point in 2004 that had Bush competitive in Hawaii. Cheney actually flew out there and delivered a stump speech, but no matter, Hawaii went blue. At one point Bush polled competitively in California, Oregon and Washington State. New Jersey is not in play for McCain and Indiana is not in play for Obama. It comes down to Obama being able to flip either Virginia, Ohio or Florida in the East time zone and 2 out of 3 in the group of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. This electoral map is looking a lot like 2004.

whottt

09-13-2008, 05:38 PM

That link has Indiana and North Carolina as tossups. McCain will take Indiana and North Carolina. Obama will take NH and Pennsylvania. Only Kerry state I'm worried about turning red is Michigan, and McCain will regret not picking Romney when this thing is over.

Oh I agree...Zoby is way behind with a lot of states not polled since early July. But all those recent polls favor McCain.

Especially in Penn.

I mean if you think about it...Penn was a battleground before the NC's...how is adding a blue collar middle class(relatively speaking) mom with a Roman Catholic background and Steelworkers Union husband going to be a negative?

If Penn was at the tipping point there is no way the Palin pick hurt him in Penn.

whottt

09-13-2008, 05:40 PM

NJ is going for Obama. There was a state poll at one point in 2004 that had Bush competitive in Hawaii. Cheney actually flew out there and delivered a stump speech, but no matter, Hawaii went blue. At one point Bush polled competitively in California, Oregon and Washington State. New Jersey is not in play for McCain and Indiana is not in play for Obama. It comes down to Obama being able to flip either Virginia, Ohio or Florida in the East time zone and 2 out of 3 in the group of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. This electoral map is looking a lot like 2004.

I'm sorry but you are wrong...you are acting like these states are immutable and they never flip. They can and will flip.

Has any state tightened for Obama lately?

Nope. Not a one, and they are all trending down for him.

Findog

09-13-2008, 05:42 PM

Oh I agree...Zoby is way behind with a lot of states not polled since early July. But all those recent polls favor McCain.

Especially in Penn.

I mean if you think about it...Penn was a battleground before the NC's...how is adding a blue collar middle class(relatively speaking) mom with a Roman Catholic background and Steelworkers Union husband going to be a negative?

If Penn was at the tipping point there is no way the Palin pick hurt him in Penn.

Joe Biden is going to keep Pennsylvania in Obama's column.

Findog

09-13-2008, 05:44 PM

I'm sorry but you are wrong...you are acting like these states are immutable and they never flip. They can and will flip.

Has any state tightened for Obama lately?

Nope. Not a one, and they are all trending down for him.

Everything in the past two weeks is attributable to a big VP splash and the GOP convention, so it is hard at this point to say that McCain's recent gains will be permanent. States do flip, NH went from Bush 2000 to Kerry 2004, while NM and Iowa Gore 2000 went to Bush in 2004. I think Iowa is already a cinch to go back to the Dems this year.

whottt

09-13-2008, 05:49 PM

I am again going to point out that Obama got his ass beat in Penn, Jersey, Cali, and New York...that means he wasn't a popular candidate in any of those major blue states.

I know you don't understand this, being a party loyalist, but people will switch parties if the candidate they like in a party isn't on the ticket.

People that vote party over candidate are the least intelligent demographic of American voters...and also a minority of voters.

I've seen New York and New Jersey and California go red before....and I know why it happened as well.

In fact I've seen every state go Red before...

When you consider that Obama beat Hillary because of his performance in small Red States, all of which are now heavily in favor of McCain...and got his ass beat in big blue ones...it is foolish to think those are locked up.

I guarantee you Obama is worried about it.

Findog

09-13-2008, 06:05 PM

I am again going to point out that Obama got his ass beat in Penn, Jersey, Cali, and New York...that means he wasn't a popular candidate in any of those major blue states.

Democratic Primary =! General Election.

I know you don't understand this, being a party loyalist, but people will switch parties if the candidate they like in a party isn't on the ticket.

I'm not a Democrat, I'm an Obama supporter, and I'm well aware that plenty of Republicans voted for Hillary in the later primaries to drag out the process.

I've seen New York and New Jersey and California go red before....and I know why it happened as well.

Here's a hint:

http://www.bet.com/Assets/BET/Published/image/jpeg/6d1d4177-8faa-458a-e897-b9216f3f6c5b-news_fb_RonaldReagan.jpg

In fact I've seen every state go Red before...

Here's a hint:

http://www.bet.com/Assets/BET/Published/image/jpeg/6d1d4177-8faa-458a-e897-b9216f3f6c5b-news_fb_RonaldReagan.jpg

When you consider that Obama beat Hillary because of his performance in small Red States, all of which are now heavily in favor of McCain...and got his ass beat in big blue ones...it is foolish to think those are locked up.

It's foolish to think that liberal Hillary supporters are going to vote for McCain en masse, whether they live in California or Nebraska. You've also demonstrated you don't understand why and how Obama beat Hillary.

I guarantee you Obama is worried about it.

Of course he's worried about losing the election. So is McCain. In other news, Hurricane Ike has caused major devastation to southeast Texas.

Findog

09-13-2008, 06:06 PM

How am I a Democrat? I voted for McCain in the 2000 Texas Republican Primary.

Findog

09-13-2008, 06:09 PM

Besides, I was in California during the Democratic Primary, and if you think that Hillary supporters there are not willing to give their support to Obama in the general, you're fucking delusional.

MannyIsGod

09-13-2008, 07:42 PM

The polls today made me want to puke. I can't believe how fast everything has unwravled. Same old shit.

Findog

09-13-2008, 07:47 PM

The polls today made me want to puke. I can't believe how fast everything has unwravled. Same old shit.

Be patient. Those Zogby Interactive polls are worthless. My prediction is that Obama will be up by an average of 1-2 points in the national polls on the eve of the first debate. The race will eventually settle back to the point it was at on the eve of the VP selections and the conventions. Palin is not going to win this election for McCain, and the hoopla and spectacle over her is what has fueled his rise in the polls. It's way premature to think that is going to continue that way until November 4th. Democrats, the Obama campaign, the blogs and the surrogates need to stop talking about Palin so much. If this election turns into being about her, we're gonna lose. The novelty of her pick is going to wear off, and that and the post-convention bounce accounts for McCain's rise.

TheMadHatter

09-13-2008, 08:02 PM

MannyIsGod

09-13-2008, 08:44 PM

Manny instead of whining like a bitch, go do something about it.

You don't wanna see McSame/Moosehunter in office, then go out and help campaign and bring voters in. Donate. Do something. Just don't fucking sit there and whine.

Wow - fuck you.

You have no fucking clue what I've done in this campaign so why the fuck are you lecturing me about doing something?

TheMadHatter

09-13-2008, 09:30 PM

Because every post I read from you is doom and gloom.

Yes we're slightly down in the polls, but for fuck sakes there is at least 7 weeks left. That is an eternity in politics.

MannyIsGod

09-13-2008, 09:39 PM

Because every post I read from you is doom and gloom.

Yes we're slightly down in the polls, but for fuck sakes there is at least 7 weeks left. That is an eternity in politics.

Every post from me is doom and gloom? Wow you're full of shit. Did you bother to read THE FUCKING THREAD YOU'RE POSTING IN? My initial posts are doom and gloom?

Are you really going to come at me with this bullshit?

Also, tell me what I'm doing - or not doing rather - since I should get out and do something. Either that or admit you've done nothing but talk out of your ass.

Supergirl

09-14-2008, 12:02 AM

whottt

09-14-2008, 12:26 AM

whottt

09-14-2008, 02:29 AM

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28353589.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUeyDiP hD:aUiacyKUnciaec8O7EyU

According to that poll...

The state of Minnesota is now a tossup: 45-45

The last time that poll ran Obama had a 13 point lead.

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 02:39 AM

Repeat after me: The polls are meaningless. You can make a poll say anything you want it to say, depending on who you ask, how you ask, when you ask, etc.

Obama defeated Clinton because his campaign understood the electoral college process better than anyone in history. This is going to win him the election in November too.

A slight "convention bump" was expected, and always fades.

Obama will win all the states Kerry won, and only has to win a few new ones (New Hampshire, New Mexico & Colorado would do it) and this is easily within his grasp.

No shit Supergirl but don't think the people running these sits know this? Or do you think they're either incredibly stupid, ignorant, or naive and that you're going open their eyes with your "you can make polls say anything" logic?

They've taken all of that into consideration and they do a shit load of reviewing of the polls back ground information along with their historical accuracy. Different polls are taken with differing degrees of certainty and compiled.

I'm tired of this stupid attitude that Obama is going to win automatically. The truth is that Whottt so far has been incredibly right with the way Pallin has turned this entire race upside down. I think a lot of it has to do with extremely shallow reasons but if you're an Obama supporter and you're not worried you're either incredibly stupid and simply taking shit for granted or you're not paying attention.

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 02:42 AM

BTW I love how Mr. Mad fucking Hatter never showed his face back in this thread after he proved how retarded he was earlier.

I'll give you some insight so you don't have to foolishly assume shit next time. I'm going to be in MI this weekend, and part of my time there will be spent volunteering with a certain campaign asswipe. Not that I should have to validate myself in regards to your idiocy, but next time you speak to someone and you try to convince them to vote for Obama don't take the route you took with me.

Assholes like you make me want to vote for McCain.

TheMadHatter

09-14-2008, 02:50 AM

bobbyjoe

09-14-2008, 02:53 AM

No shit Supergirl but don't think the people running these sits know this? Or do you think they're either incredibly stupid, ignorant, or naive and that you're going open their eyes with your "you can make polls say anything" logic?

They've taken all of that into consideration and they do a shit load of reviewing of the polls back ground information along with their historical accuracy. Different polls are taken with differing degrees of certainty and compiled.

I'm tired of this stupid attitude that Obama is going to win automatically. The truth is that Whottt so far has been incredibly right with the way Pallin has turned this entire race upside down. I think a lot of it has to do with extremely shallow reasons but if you're an Obama supporter and you're not worried you're either incredibly stupid and simply taking shit for granted or you're not paying attention.

Good point. Obama also debates less effectively than McCain IMO, but is a better speaker. So now that the conventions are over and the venue du jour switches to debates and town halls, this favors McCain. The bar is so low for Palin that unless she makes a complete idiot out of herself, that event won't really change anything.

TheMadHatter

09-14-2008, 03:52 AM

The bar is not low for Palin. The Democrats made the smart move in not belittling her like a moron the way they did to Bush. Palin is a superstar right now, the dream candidate. She's as high as can be in the eyes of most voters. Sharp, smart, quick on her feet, great speaker is what most would describe her as.

And as far as debates go, McCain is as boring as a tree stump. He simply does not excite or uplift you the way Obama can, doesn't mean he's a poor debater he's just not exciting.

T Park

09-14-2008, 04:16 AM

And as far as debates go, McCain is as boring as a tree stump. He simply does not excite or uplift you the way Obama can, doesn't mean he's a poor debater he's just not exciting.

He doesn't need to be exciting.

Just prove to be the better smarter candidate.

Thats all.

TheMadHatter

09-14-2008, 04:54 AM

The debates are actually where I'm most hopeful Obama will gain momentum. As far as the issues go he has everything going for him that the Independent voter will be looking for. It's an environment that he can control for the most part.

Out on the campaign trail McSame can make up lies and say what he wants, but he won't dare repeat those lies to Obama's face because he knows he'll get called out and embarrass himself further on national television.

florige

09-14-2008, 11:24 AM

I actually think this is the best map imo....

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

florige

09-14-2008, 11:30 AM

No shit Supergirl but don't think the people running these sits know this? Or do you think they're either incredibly stupid, ignorant, or naive and that you're going open their eyes with your "you can make polls say anything" logic?

They've taken all of that into consideration and they do a shit load of reviewing of the polls back ground information along with their historical accuracy. Different polls are taken with differing degrees of certainty and compiled.

I'm tired of this stupid attitude that Obama is going to win automatically. The truth is that Whottt so far has been incredibly right with the way Pallin has turned this entire race upside down. I think a lot of it has to do with extremely shallow reasons but if you're an Obama supporter and you're not worried you're either incredibly stupid and simply taking shit for granted or you're not paying attention.

While no one is saying that Whott is wrong about the turn around in the polls, the point that people are trying to make is that Whott himself is saying that this thing is over in favor of McCain. I think that it's foolish to think that way literally right after a convention, AND before we have had a single debate. This Palin thing is going to die down, then we'll see how the polls are looking. While it is concerning that he has lost his once massive lead, so close after a convention is why alot of people are not worrying too much right now. Now in a couple of weeks Obama is still losing in the polls after the Palin/Biden debate, AND after a McCain/Obama debate, then I will start to worry.

whottt

09-14-2008, 11:33 AM

Real Clear Politics now has McCain up 227-207
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

whottt

09-14-2008, 11:33 AM

Latest Rasmussen National has McCain up 50-47.

whottt

09-14-2008, 11:58 AM

Second Poll that seems to confirm Minnesota is slipping away from the Democrats:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2

Findog

09-14-2008, 12:31 PM

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 12:45 PM

Hey my mistake Manny. By the tone of the posts I've seen you make I pegged you for a self-loathing Democrat, the ones that whine and moan when things turn the slightest bit negative. My mistake.

Glad to see your out volunteering your time. I'll be in NM/NV and possibly CO helping GOTV. It's not enough to register voters, you have to get them to vote. I'm trying to tell everyone to vote early instead of waiting till Election Day.

Good job in coming correct. I simply see many of the same mistakes being repeated from 4 years ago. Democrats can't just hope that Bush is going to hand them the White House because thats not happening.

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 12:54 PM

While no one is saying that Whott is wrong about the turn around in the polls, the point that people are trying to make is that Whott himself is saying that this thing is over in favor of McCain. I think that it's foolish to think that way literally right after a convention, AND before we have had a single debate. This Palin thing is going to die down, then we'll see how the polls are looking. While it is concerning that he has lost his once massive lead, so close after a convention is why alot of people are not worrying too much right now. Now in a couple of weeks Obama is still losing in the polls after the Palin/Biden debate, AND after a McCain/Obama debate, then I will start to worry.

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

Crookshanks

09-14-2008, 02:17 PM

Second Poll that seems to confirm Minnesota is slipping away from the Democrats:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2

Sunday, September 14

National Gallup Tracking McCain 47, Obama 45 McCain +2
National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 50, Obama 47 McCain +3
Minnesota Star Tribune Obama 45, McCain 45 Tie
Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Iowa Des Moines Register Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Utah Deseret News McCain 62, Obama 24 McCain +38

SOME OTHER INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS

Saturday, September 13

Nevada Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 46 McCain +3
National Hotline/FD Tracking McCain 45, Obama 44 McCain +1
National Newsweek McCain 46, Obama 46 Tie
South Dakota Rasmussen McCain 54, Obama 37 McCain +17
New Jersey Marist Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3
Friday, September 12

Missouri Rasmussen McCain 51, Obama 46 McCain +5
Oklahoma Rasmussen McCain 63, Obama 32 McCain +31
Washington Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Oregon Hoffman Research (R) Obama 46, McCain 39 Obama +7
Washington Elway Poll* Obama 46, McCain 38 Obama +8
National Associated Press/GfK McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
Ohio Univ. of Cinci McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
National Associated Press/GfK McCain 48, Obama 44, Nader 1, Barr 1 McCain +4

TheMadHatter

09-14-2008, 03:17 PM

Manny what you need to understand is that this country's electorate is EXTREMELY polarized. It really doesn't matter what shape the economy is in, half the country will vote R no matter what the conditions are. Obama being black certainly doesn't help, there is a lot of racism in the South that is still prevalent today.

The fact that a black candidate can legitimately become President is a huge step IMHO considering how ass backwards the South still is.

101A

09-14-2008, 03:20 PM

101A

09-14-2008, 03:23 PM

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

Dems lie too, don't kid yourself.

McCain NEVER said he wanted to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years.

McCain DID NOT say that you're not wealthy unless you make 5,000,000 per year.

That is, unless you take each statement out of context.

They ALL do it, the Republicans are better at it.

I think the problem for Dems is, simply, we are not a liberal country; and they nominated a VERY liberal candidate, who picked a VERY liberal runningmate.

whottt

09-14-2008, 03:28 PM

McCain DID NOT say that you're not wealthy unless you make 5,000,000 per year.
.

What's funny is that McCain even laughed and said that comment would wind up as a soundbite even as he was making the joke :lmao

Libs are getting too easy...just like everyone knows they are going to start playing the race card now as it's the only card they have to play :lol

Cant_Be_Faded

09-14-2008, 03:29 PM

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

The extent to which they are stretching the truth is not getting nearly enough airtime IMO. There was a really good bit on the radio last week about how campaigns have always stretched the truth but this cycle's republican campaign is going to uncharted territories, almost completely making up total BS in their ads and speeches.
And it's working.

This is yet another reason this election is historic, we're witnessing a de-evolution in our politics, as if it were possible to de-evolve any more.

One thing is certain. Republicans sure know how to run a damn campaign. I think its because they acknowledge and understand how stupid the average Marriott voter is.

I'm still hoping this Palin tide will ebb.

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 03:54 PM

Dems lie too, don't kid yourself.

McCain NEVER said he wanted to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years.

McCain DID NOT say that you're not wealthy unless you make 5,000,000 per year.

That is, unless you take each statement out of context.

They ALL do it, the Republicans are better at it.

I think the problem for Dems is, simply, we are not a liberal country; and they nominated a VERY liberal candidate, who picked a VERY liberal runningmate.

Yeah Democrats lie, but the fact of the matter is that right now McCain's campaign is really really really lying through their teeth far worse than any modern presidential campaign. Republicans are taking notice to the extent this is occurring and are even speaking out against it.

This is not a partisan talking point; this is the reality that McCain is doing something I feel should not be allowed.

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 03:56 PM

The extent to which they are stretching the truth is not getting nearly enough airtime IMO. There was a really good bit on the radio last week about how campaigns have always stretched the truth but this cycle's republican campaign is going to uncharted territories, almost completely making up total BS in their ads and speeches.
And it's working.

This is yet another reason this election is historic, we're witnessing a de-evolution in our politics, as if it were possible to de-evolve any more.

One thing is certain. Republicans sure know how to run a damn campaign. I think its because they acknowledge and understand how stupid the average Marriott voter is.

I'm still hoping this Palin tide will ebb.

Its getting play among people who actually pay attention and its being acknowledged quite readily. The problem is that this isn't where the average American voter gets their info.

Not that this really needed proving, but McCain is proving the Avg American takes far too much shit as fact. Whether it comes from a stupid ad, chain letter, or out of the mouths of pundits it doesn't matter if its true just as long as someone says it.

101A

09-14-2008, 04:09 PM

Yeah Democrats lie, but the fact of the matter is that right now McCain's campaign is really really really lying through their teeth far worse than any modern presidential campaign. Republicans are taking notice to the extent this is occurring and are even speaking out against it.

This is not a partisan talking point; this is the reality that McCain is doing something I feel should not be allowed.

I won't argue the point; it is valid.

101A

09-14-2008, 04:11 PM

Its getting play among people who actually pay attention and its being acknowledged quite readily. The problem is that this isn't where the average American voter gets their info.

Not that this really needed proving, but McCain is proving the Avg American takes far too much shit as fact. Whether it comes from a stupid ad, chain letter, or out of the mouths of pundits it doesn't matter if its true just as long as someone says it.

FWIW, in Sunday school today; a person said they had changed from McCain to Obama because Palin believe dinosaurs never existed.

whottt

09-14-2008, 04:33 PM

:lol @ the Republicans lying more than the Democrats...

McCain asked Obama to do town hall debates during this campaign and Obama wants no part of it...I wonder why.

The media is so in the tank for Obama it isn't even funny....

And what they did to Palin flatly exposed them.

Nbadan

09-14-2008, 04:41 PM

So much for the McCain-Palin bounce..

Today's Diageo/Hotline poll shows Obama-Biden leading McCain-Palin 45% to 43%. Yesterday, McCain-Palin were leading 45% to 44%.

One likely reason for the swing: men. In yesterday's poll, McCain was leading among men by 12 pts. Today, it's just 4 pts. Meanwhile, Obama's advantage among women has remained consistent over the last three polls ranging between 8 and 9 pts.

Today's survey, conducted 9/11-13 by FD, is the seventh daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 904 RV sample is 43%D, 34%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Linky (http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_w.html)

Shouldn't make the same mistake Whott made and read to much into this poll, but McSame needs to start running on the issues or the debates could be his death kneel....

whottt

09-14-2008, 05:03 PM

Party ID breakdown for the 904 RV sample is 43%D, 34%R, 20%I.

:lmao

whottt

09-14-2008, 05:08 PM

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/archive/

:lol

florige

09-14-2008, 09:27 PM

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

Yeah I see the point you're trying to make as well. Personally I thing this should be a no-brainer I guess people are happy with the way things are now....
I'm just really hoping this thing will even back out again. But the trend is turning. Now if this jsut happens to be a blip (which I think it is) or the beginning of the end for Obama remains to be seen. Still too early.

TheMadHatter

09-14-2008, 09:55 PM

florige

09-14-2008, 10:01 PM

I agree with what others have said.

What we are witnessing is the beginning of a disturbing trend in politics, with each passing election it becomes more and more like American Idol.

The degree to which McCain is lying is unprecedented. Nearly every statement he and Palin make is an outright bogus lie. He really is going into uncharted territories in this regard that not even Bush dared to.

They were talking about that on a political show I was looking at earlier. Alot of the American people believe what the hear. Especially ones who don't have access to research tools. We can look up his BS, but for others they just go with whatever they spout out because they feel as though they are telling the truth. I hope so bad that he gets what he deserves during the debates.... Pretty much the McCain camp is just saying fuck it at this point.....Win any means necessary. If it means getting an underqualified nobody, lying, whatever it takes to win.....

MannyIsGod

09-14-2008, 10:38 PM

EVERYONE has access to research tools. They just don't care. The public library system here has computers at every branch with free access to the net. Lots of people go use them. Walk into any library and you'll see a bunch of people without computers surfing the net at the library. Of course, more than half will be on facebook and myspace...

Findog

09-15-2008, 09:36 AM

The Dems are beginning to get it: Accept the fact that Sarah Palin is well-loved by the GOP and not outright hated by Independents. People can like her and still not vote for the ticket that she's on:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iLjQnanGwe-0Mst6UJiA8xD7JcHw

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Barack Obama seems finally to have hit on a strategy to fight the Sarah Palin phenomenon: sidestep the feisty Republican vice presidential pick and turn full fire on an "out of touch" John McCain.

Palin's explosive debut left Obama's Democratic White House campaign flailing for an initial response as she trumped him as the freshest and most magnetic character in the history-making 2008 race.

Appearing on the "Late Show with David Letterman" Wednesday, the first African-American with a serious shot at the White House mused ruefully on how he had been upstaged.

"We didn't know much about her. Honestly, she's a skilled politician. There's no doubt that she has been a phenomenon," Obama said.

The Alaska governor made instant converts of the Republican conservative base, kick-started McCain's misfiring campaign and wiped out Obama's small but consistent leads in national opinion polls.

But the Democrat is now firing back -- branding 72-year-old McCain as an economic illiterate stuck in the pre-Internet era, while vowing to parry a negative post-convention Republican barrage.

"I think Palin's candidacy was such a surprise and she was such an unknown that it threw off the Obama campaign and drew them away from their message," said Kathleen Kendall of the University of Maryland.

Early Obama camp responses to Palin's broadsides seemed churlish, open to Republican complaints of sexism and left a candidate determined to elevate political discourse stuck in the trenches of snarling soundbite politics.

As visions of defeat on November 4 and Democratic panic engulfed liberal blogs, the Obama camp had a rethink.

The new battleplan turns the heat on McCain, and not his charismatic sidekick.

A day after Obama huddled with Bill Clinton, one of the former president's top aides, political bruiser Rahm Emanuel, led a fresh bid to frame the choice before voters -- with a distinctly Clintonian tone.

"What John McCain is offering you is two for one," the Illinois congressman said.

"George (W.) Bush's economic policies and Dick Cheney's foreign policy -- you're going to get four more years of just what you got for the last eight years."

Later Friday, Emanuel passed up a chance on MSNBC to critique Palin's shaky performance in her first major television interview.

A blistering memo by Obama campaign manager David Plouffe only mentioned the Alaska governor in passing. For the first time in days the Illinois Senator skipped references to Palin at a rally in New Hampshire Friday.

Their reasoning was clear: deprive Palin of the spotlight and make a new attempt to twin McCain with unpopular Republican President Bush.

Ironically, Bush's political guru Karl Rove warned in a Wall Street Journal article on Thursday that attacking Palin was bad politics for Obama.

"These assaults highlight his own tissue-thin resume, waste precious time better spent reassuring voters he is up for the job and diminish him -- not her," Rove wrote.

Democrats view Rove with a mixture of dread and awe, and might ask, if Palin has been so influential, shouldn't the party try to take her down?

"It is not a good idea to dwell on her," said Bruce Buchanan, a political analyst at the University of Texas at Austin.

"Sooner or later it is going to be about McCain again."

But will an assault on McCain also dim Palin's influence on the race?

Polls in battleground states reveal that Palin is drawing increasing support among the crucial voter group of white, working class women.

In Quinnipiac University surveys, McCain's support among white women voters grew four percentage points in Ohio and five points in Pennsylvania since August 26.

Cue Hillary Clinton: the Democratic former first lady and Obama's vanquished primary foe was set to campaign for Obama in northeastern Ohio on Sunday, no doubt aiming to fire up her white, working-class base for Obama.

Clinton has so far not publicly attacked Palin, amid reports she does not want to detract from the Obama campaign with a headline-grabbing public spat with the Alaska governor.

But the shape of the electorate also suggests that Clinton alone may not be a decisive factor in stemming the flow of women away from Obama towards McCain.

"Hillary got about 10 million votes in the Democratic primary from women," said Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University polling institute.

"You will probably see about 62 million women vote in November -- it's the other 52 million that Palin is aimed at -- if they get some of the Hillary voters that is gravy."

Findog

09-15-2008, 09:39 AM

Sorry, but Washington, Minnesota and New Jersey are staying blue.

florige

09-15-2008, 01:06 PM

Maybe I will change things and not watch the election coverage. The last two I watched the canidate I supported lost. Maybe if I just wake up on Nov 5th I will see that Obama pulled it off.

whottt

09-15-2008, 01:28 PM

Latest Poll of likely New York voters is now an 18 point swing from Obama to McCain

Obama 46
McCain 41

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=30098

Siena New York Poll:
With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue
Obama’s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June
Obama Seen As Stronger Than McCain on 4 of 6 Issues;
Voters See McCain As Better Than Obama on 4 of 6 of Attributes

Loudonville, NY. Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

Findog

09-15-2008, 01:42 PM

McCain isn't taking New York. He likely doesn't even have enough of a ground operation there to force Obama to defend it more.

whottt

09-15-2008, 01:47 PM

Ohio

McCain 46
Obama 42

http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/09/15/daily3.html

Suffolk University reported Monday that a poll of 600 likely voters in the state last week found Republican presidential hopeful John McCain and Palin have 46 percent support among Ohioans in their bid for the White House. The Democrat’s ticket, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, have 42 percent of the state’s vote, the Boston-based school said.

When asked which of the four presidential and vice presidential nominees is most like them, nearly a third named Palin, the governor of Alaska. Obama trailed with 22 percent, followed by McCain at 21 percent and Biden at 13 percent.

Of those surveyed, 49 percent said they trust McCain more, versus 41 percent for Obama. McCain also trumped Obama when voters were asked who is more likely to fulfill a pledge to lower taxes. Forty-one percent of surveyed voters said McCain, a senator from Arizona, is more likely to live up to his word, versus 31 percent for Obama, the Illinois senator.

whottt

09-15-2008, 01:58 PM

It's over barring Palin or McCain being behind September 11th.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/09152008/news/columnists/ladies_man_mac_is_a_player_in_ny_129211.htm

LADIES' MAN MAC IS A PLAYER IN NY

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.

POLL: McCain Picks Up 5 Points in NY

One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.

The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week's "lipstick on a pig" crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama's failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.

"If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally," said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.

A prominent Republican familiar with the results said, "It really is something, because we just assumed Obama would carry such a heavily Democratic state like New York with no difficulty."

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

The polls found McCain closing the gap with Obama during the past 10 days - in the wake of Palin's sensational GOP convention speech, Obama's crack that "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," and amid a swirling controversy over Palin's credentials to be vice president.

The polling data track the findings of a little-noticed Marist College poll of likely New Jersey voters late last week that found Obama barely ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey generally votes Democratic, though its enrollment is not as heavily Democratic as New York state's.

The findings of the private polls will be tested by a series of public polls to be released over the next two weeks - starting with a Siena College survey of likely voters due out today.

A Siena poll in August had Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 39 percent. McCain is expected to make a significant move over the 40 percent mark when the new numbers are released today.

The private polling also points to a closer battle for control of the state Senate. Because of the way many Senate district lines have been drawn, Republicans, fighting to hold their narrow majority, are expected to benefit most from a close New York presidential race, insiders agree.

McCain's surge in New York polling comes at a time when his national operatives have rebuffed requests from New York campaign chairman Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer and son-in-law to former President Richard Nixon, to spend some serious campaign money in the state.

"Ed was told, 'You have no money for a campaign here, so why should we spend any?' " a nationally known Republican operative told The Post.

"The McCain people think of Ed as a nice guy, but there's no money for an organization in New York, so they ask, 'Why go in?' " the GOP operative continued.

The Republican operative, meanwhile, sounded downright gleeful about the political fallout from US Rep. Charles Rangel's failure to pay income taxes from the rental of his luxurious villa in the Dominican Republic.

"Rangel has turned into a big liability for the Democrats, and his troubles are playing into the 'anti- politician' mood around the country," he said.

whottt

09-15-2008, 02:01 PM

McCain isn't taking New York. He likely doesn't even have enough of a ground operation there to force Obama to defend it more.

You do realize part of the reason for this thread was me calling NY being in play by Nov to Manny and him wanting a further discussion of it.

Just wait till they find out McCain and Palin are government moderates...the media has been doing a great job of covering that up, especially with Palin...and the backlash from that is going to be huge.

It's going to happen in the debates when they can't edit Palin's comments or take them out of context.

whottt

09-15-2008, 02:03 PM

Obama doesn't have a ground game there either...he didn't expect to need one.

LOL Hillary will no doubt "campaign" for him here :lol

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:08 PM

You do realize part of the reason for this thread was me calling NY being in play by Nov to Manny and him wanting a further discussion of it.

Just wait till they find out McCain and Palin are government moderates...the media has been doing a great job of covering that up, especially with Palin...and the backlash from that is going to be huge.

It's going to happen in the debates when they can't edit Palin's comments or take them out of context.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8

Obama up 4 on McCain in Virginia. I find it hard to believe that Obama has a lead on McCain outside of the margin in Virginia while his lead is frittering away in a very blue state. That makes no sense.

If McCain wins New York or ends up running very close there, that means a landslide across the country. Most likely McCain avoids the temptation to start spending money there, just because a single poll has him competitive means little.

whottt

09-15-2008, 02:11 PM

Back to the main reason I called NY being in play in the first place...

NY has over 1 million more female voters than male...and Hillary was their girl. NY is where the backlash is going to be felt. He pulled 39% of the vote in the primaries.

There are other reasons...main one being that New York is extremely patriotic and it's a mistake to think they aren't just because they didn't go for W in 2004. They didn't go for W because they didn't respect him. They'll respect McCain...he is the exactly the type of guy they will respect.

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:12 PM

Obama doesn't have a ground game there either...he didn't expect to need one.

LOL Hillary will no doubt "campaign" for him here :lol

We're going to have to have some sig bets or something on the outcome of certain states.

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:13 PM

whottt

09-15-2008, 02:18 PM

McCain could make a single appearance in Queens and flip NY. He just has to flip one of their major boroughs, catch some Hillary women and he flips the state.

NY is going to be asking the same thing everyone else asked...why didn't you fucking put Hillary on the ticket if you wanted our votes?

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:24 PM

Wow, NY goes red. McCain is going to make Reagan-Mondale look like a nail-biter.

smh

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:25 PM

According to whottt, Obama will only carry Illinois, Massachusetts, Hawaii and D.C.

:lmao

florige

09-15-2008, 02:29 PM

Got some bad news for you Whottt, Obama just pulled ahead in VA....

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/15/surveyusa_obama_moves_ahead_in_virginia.html

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:30 PM

Got some bad news for you Whottt, Obama just pulled ahead in VA....

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/15/surveyusa_obama_moves_ahead_in_virginia.html

I don't put any more faith in that than I do NY suddenly being in play for McCain.

florige

09-15-2008, 02:30 PM

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8

Obama up 4 on McCain in Virginia. I find it hard to believe that Obama has a lead on McCain outside of the margin in Virginia while his lead is frittering away in a very blue state. That makes no sense.

If McCain wins New York or ends up running very close there, that means a landslide across the country. Most likely McCain avoids the temptation to start spending money there, just because a single poll has him competitive means little.

Dammit you beat me to it.....:lol

florige

09-15-2008, 02:31 PM

I don't put any more faith in that than I do NY suddenly being in play for McCain.

I know. I just like busting Whottt's balls.....
That being said though I like Obama's chances in VA more then I like McCain's in NY.

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:33 PM

Obama basically has 2 main paths to the Presidency, but they both hinge on him holding all of Kerry's states. I would say that the most vulnerable Kerry states are NH, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Michigan being the most vulnerable.

With the Kerry states and Iowa, that gets him to 259. He can flip either Ohio, Virginia or Florida in the East time zone, or he can grab Colorado and either New Mexico and Nevada. If he can turn one of those eastern states, he no longer needs the Mountain states.

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:34 PM

I know. I just like busting Whottt's balls.....
That being said though I like Obama's chances in VA more then I like McCain's in NY.

Those two polls together make no sense. Either McCain is gaining traction in New York or Obama is turning Virginia blue, but not both.

florige

09-15-2008, 02:35 PM

Findog

09-15-2008, 02:40 PM

The national polling, regardless of whether they have this tied or either candidate in the lead, supports a close race. A close race doesn't involve New York turning red or Georgia turning blue.

florige

09-15-2008, 02:51 PM

Yeah it's def going to be close. The debates are going to be the thing that decides this...

By the way CNN has it a tie race again Whottt.....http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

MannyIsGod

09-15-2008, 03:00 PM

The VA poll is great especially since SUSA is by far one of the better pollsters. That being said, I'm not ready to give Obama that state yet. Lets see some more results and see if they point in that direction or if its an outlier.

The polling today was good pretty good for Obama - especially that VA number. Perhaps this signals an end to the McCain bounce and a bit of a withdrawl of the Palin love.

I think at some point Palin's effect has to come down, I just don't know how much that is.

florige

09-15-2008, 03:09 PM

I'm not taking anything for granted. We saw how fast his lead evaporated over McCain. I'm just glad to see some positives for the first time since the Republican convention. We still have a long way to go.....

Findog

09-15-2008, 03:25 PM

The Democrats best strategy is to start attacking McCain, remind voters that he and not Sarah Palin is at the top of the ticket. And it looks like they're doing that. Democrats have got to stop worrying about converting people into disliking Sarah Palin. People can still like her and yet not vote for the ticket that she's on. The more time spent bashing Palin, the better for McCain.

JoeChalupa

09-15-2008, 03:44 PM

TheMadHatter

09-15-2008, 03:49 PM

This is the natural ebb and flow of politics. I'm not surprised at all that McCain got a nice boost after his convention. The race will tighten up in the coming weeks to a dead heat IMHO.

I'm confident in Obama winning this election because he put forth the effort to create a massive ground game. The GOTV effort will be huge in the battleground states. Obama did the hard work, and it's going to pay off for him more than anyone is expecting right now.

whottt

09-15-2008, 03:49 PM

whottt

09-15-2008, 03:55 PM

The VA poll is great especially since SUSA is by far one of the better pollsters. That being said, I'm not ready to give Obama that state yet. Lets see some more results and see if they point in that direction or if its an outlier.

SUSA is the best one...but they can be hired to give desirable results.

I think at some point Palin's effect has to come down, I just don't know how much that is.

It's going to go up once people realize she's not some crazed right winger. The dinosaur thing is going ot make a lot of lefties look like assholes once it comes out that her Dad is a science teacher.

JoeChalupa

09-15-2008, 03:58 PM

Sincerely,

whottt, the day Palin was announced as VP.

It's too late for that now. To be fair...it was pretty much over when Palin was selected.

Damn, I hope you are wrong. :bang

Findog

09-15-2008, 03:59 PM

Sincerely,

whottt, the day Palin was announced as VP.

It's too late for that now. To be fair...it was pretty much over when Palin was selected.

It's far from over. I wouldn't even argue that she's "popular" anywhere except the Republican base. The media spectacle over her and the GOP convention have largely resulted in positive coverage of the McCain campaign. And since she's a new figure on the national political scene, it's easy for voters to see what they want to see in Palin and project that onto her. It will be hard for her to retain a pristine image the more she's in the spotlight.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if her effect on McCain is analogous to Ferraro for Mondale.

Biernutz

09-15-2008, 04:01 PM

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:03 PM

It's far from over. I wouldn't even argue that she's "popular" anywhere except the Republican base.

And you'd be wrong about that.

The media spectacle over her and the GOP convention have largely resulted in positive coverage of the McCain campaign. And since she's a new figure on the national political scene, it's easy for voters to see what they want to see in Palin and project that onto her. It will be hard for her to retain a pristine image the more she's in the spotlight.

No, what's driving it is that people are excited to have a likeable candidate in a Presidential race for the first time since 1996.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if her effect on McCain is analogous to Ferraro for Mondale.

And I'd say you aren't the sharpest tool in the shed if that is your perception.

My two favorite Presidents were Reagan and Clinton...Palin is more likeable than either of them.

Anyway...I'll let you get back to explaining why NJ, NY, Min and Washington turning into batteleground states is a positive for Obama.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:03 PM

Damn, I hope you are wrong. :bang

He's not right about it being over.

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:05 PM

florige

09-15-2008, 04:05 PM

And you'd be wrong about that.

No, what's driving it is that people are excited to have a likeable candidate in a Presidential race for the first time since 1996.

And I'd say you aren't the sharpest tool in the shed if that is your perception.

My two favorite Presidents were Reagan and Clinton...Palin is more likeable than either of them.

Anyway...I'll let you get back to explaining why NJ, NY, Min and Washington turning into batteleground states is a positive for Obama.

Maybe in your opinion....:lol

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:07 PM

You guys need to realize it is Palin VS Obama now...because of ya'll. And Palin is going to win...because she's got 5 kids, because she's got a son in Iraq, because she's middle class, because she's hot....because she's center.

McCain VS Biden is a landslide in McCain's favor.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:08 PM

My two favorite Presidents were Reagan and Clinton...Palin is more likeable than either of them.

Wow, what was that about sharp implements?

Anyway...I'll let you get back to explaining why NJ, NY, Min and Washington turning into batteleground states is a positive for Obama.

Because they're staying blue in November.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:09 PM

The fivethirtyeight.com which was touted in the early pages of this thread as "the only poll that counts" has John McCain leading in projected Electoral Votes----- McCain 287.7 to Obama 250.3. This today's update!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Obama also has gains in 4 of the 6 polls as well since last week. The convention bump/Palin pick looks like it's starting to tail off some...

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:11 PM

whottt is hysterical.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:11 PM

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:12 PM

It's up to McCain to screw up really really badly, that's your shot...not out of the realm of possibility....but people are still going to vote for Palin over Obama...ticket placement isn't going to be important.

At the height of his bounce and Palin mania he's managed to make this race a draw, and whottt is popping the champagne at halftime.

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:14 PM

At the height of his bounce and Palin mania he's managed to make this race a draw, and whottt is popping the champagne at halftime.

You don't understand...she's going to become more appealing once they figure out she's not a crazed right winger. I keep saying this and it keeps zipping right past you.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:16 PM

At the height of his bounce and Palin mania he's managed to make this race a draw, and whottt is popping the champagne at halftime.

Man please, Whottt was trying to steal the trophy after the anthem last week.

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:16 PM

"because she's hot" :lmao

Ok I will give you that one....

Dude...every married 40 something guy in America is going to be inclined to vote for her...if only beause she's 40 and still fucks her husband.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:18 PM

You don't understand...she's going to become more appealing once they figure out she's not a crazed right winger. I keep saying this and it keeps zipping right past you.

Uh, she is a crazed rightwinger. And who is "they"? Undecideds? The record doesn't support that she's a centrist moderate. Serious undecideds will come to understand that. Superficial undecideds might very well pull the lever for McCain/Palin because she's a "hockey mom" and "just like them."

Biernutz

09-15-2008, 04:19 PM

Obama also has gains in 4 of the 6 polls as well since last week. The convention bump/Palin pick looks like it's starting to tail off some...

I think the convention bump is over--could the reason for the lead still on is the Hillary voters are throwing their support for McCain?

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:20 PM

I think the convention bump is over--could the reason for the lead still on is the Hillary voters are throwing their support for McCain?

Most polling has 70% of Hillary voters staying with Obama, 10% to McCain, and 20% undecided. 9/11 -9/15 would be the height of his convention bounce, if we go historically by how long these things last. McCain gave his nomination speech on September 4th. The polls on September 18th can safely be said to no longer be contaminated by the convention bounces.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:21 PM

Dude...every married 40 something guy in America is going to be inclined to vote for her...if only beause she's 40 and still fucks her husband.

Nah I actually was agreeing with you with her being hot part. If you vote for her because you stand behind her for the issues and what she has accomplished then fine. I just hope women won't vote for her because she's a woman, and men won't vote for her because she's hot....:lol

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:22 PM

The Dems are already adjusting their tactics to spend more time focusing on McCain and less on Palin. They let themselves fall into the briar trap of turning this into a referendum on Palin. They will lose that argument every single time. I'm just glad they caught themselves with 50+ days before the election.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:24 PM

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:25 PM

Uh, she is a crazed rightwinger.

No she's not.

And who is "they"? Undecideds? The record doesn't support that she's a centrist moderate.

Absolutely false...how dare you call anyone Superficial...everything you are saying is superficial.

You're just the message board extension of Keith Olberman.

Serious undecideds will come to understand that. Superficial undecideds might very well pull the lever for McCain/Palin because she's a "hockey mom" and "just like them."

There's nothng superficial about that...voting for a party over a candidate is the most superfical mindset there is.

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:26 PM

Most polling has 70% of Hillary voters staying with Obama, 10% to McCain, and 20% undecided. 9/11 -9/15 would be the height of his convention bounce, if we go historically by how long these things last. McCain gave his nomination speech on September 4th. The polls on September 18th can safely be said to no longer be contaminated by the convention bounces.

False...the polling data from numerous sources show 25-28% of the Hillary voters going to McCain, and rising.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:30 PM

No she's not.

Putting your fingers in your ears and screaming "No, she's not!" doesn't make it so. McCain might be able to fool enough people into siding with you and winning the election, but that doesn't make it so. So, if believing in creationism, linking Iraq with September 11th and declaring it a "Mission from God", putting Israel in charge of our Iran policy, and not condoning abortion even in the case of rape and incest doesn't make you a crazed rightwinger, then what does?

You're just the message board extension of Keith Olberman.

Aw, whottt, this hurts my feelings. Not a big Olbermann fan. Are you the Spurstalk equivalent of Glenn Beck? It's not the most apt comparison - you're just as predictable and half as biting.

There's nothng superficial about that...voting for a party over a candidate is the most superfical mindset there is.

Agreed. Obama is the lesser of two evils.

whottt

09-15-2008, 04:36 PM

Putting your fingers in your ears and screaming "No, she's not!" doesn't make it so. McCain might be able to fool enough people into siding with you and winning the election, but that doesn't make it so. So, if believing in creationism, linking Iraq with September 11th and declaring it a "Mission from God", putting Israel in charge of our Iran policy, and not condoning abortion even in the case of rape and incest doesn't make you a crazed rightwinger, then what does?

Wow...you've obviously done no research on this yourself...you're the living embodiment of the daily kos.

You've done literally no resaearch on her record for yourself and you are citing nothing but leftist spin.

Aw, whottt, this hurts my feelings. Not a big Olbermann fan. Are you the Spurstalk equivalent of Glenn Beck?

Patriotically I am equivalent of a lot of Republicans...on all other issues I'm not.

It's not the most apt comparison - you're just as predictable and half as biting.

No I'm really not...you're just dismissing everything I am saying in favor of your leftist talking points.

Agreed. Obama is the lesser of two evils.

Obama is talk.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:44 PM

Wow...you've obviously done no research on this yourself...you're the living embodiment of the daily kos.

Just keep calling me a liberal....I voted for McCain in the 2000 Texas Republican primary. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Gore in 2000. I can't stand Nancy Pelosi or the Democrats in Congress that just eat at the lobbyists trough and do nothing for the people that they claim to represent. I just think Obama is the lesser of two evils here, no more, no less.

You've done literally no resaearch on her record for yourself and you are citing nothing but leftist spin.

So she doesn't believe in teaching creationism in schools? She doesn't deny the effects of global warming and climate change are man-made? I didn't watch that youtube video where she claimed the Iraq war was a mission from God? She didn't put Israel in charge of our Iran policy in that Charlie Gibson interview? She didn't make a link between Iraq and September 11th in that Charlie Gibson interview? When running for Governor of Alaska in 2006, she didn't say that she would not support an abortion for her daughter if she were raped? I will admit that she DOES favor abortion in case the mother's life is in danger, but she DOES NOT favor abortion if a woman has been raped. I just made that up from "lefty talking points"? So, you're still willing to claim that she's not far out of the mainstream on abortion?

Obama is talk.

He's mostly talk. I agree. I don't drink the Obama kool-aid and think he's going to be a miracle worker. I just shudder at the idea of 4 more years of the GOP in control after the great job they did over the last eight.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:47 PM

Just keep calling me a liberal....I voted for McCain in the 2000 Texas Republican primary. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Gore in 2000. I can't stand Nancy Pelosi or the Democrats in Congress that just eat at the lobbyists trough and do nothing for the people that they claim to represent. I just think Obama is the lesser of two evils here, no more, no less.

So she doesn't believe in teaching creationism in schools? She doesn't deny the effects of global warming and climate change are man-made? I didn't watch that youtube video where she claimed the Iraq war was a mission from God? She didn't put Israel in charge of our Iran policy in that Charlie Gibson interview? She didn't make a link between Iraq and September 11th in that Charlie Gibson interview? When running for Governor of Alaska in 2006, she didn't say that she would not support an abortion for her daughter if she were raped? I will admit that she DOES favor abortion in case the mother's life is in danger, but she DOES NOT favor abortion if a woman has been raped. I just made that up from "lefty talking points"? So, you're still willing to claim that she's not far out of the mainstream on abortion?

He's mostly talk. I agree. I don't drink the Obama kool-aid and think he's going to be a miracle worker. I just shudder at the idea of 4 more years of the GOP in control after the great job they did over the last eight.

Was Obama your first choice in the primaries?

TheMadHatter

09-15-2008, 04:48 PM

Whott is the SpursTalk equivalent of shit.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:49 PM

Check out the Palin numbers in the Research2000 internals. A week ago she was at 52 favorable / 39 unfavorable. Today she is at 47 favorable and 43 unfavorable. The bloom is off the rose.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:50 PM

[/B]

Was Obama your first choice in the primaries?

Of people who had a chance to actually win a general election, yes.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:50 PM

Whott is the SpursTalk equivalent of shit.

There's a kind of desperation on the right to imagine that the first McCain lead of the year is permanent, even though it is 3 to 5 points at most and is within the margin of error for most of the polls and even though we haven't seen any of the debates yet, and that McCain is somehow going to do better than Bush did in 2004 in states that have been blue for 20 years even though most Americans are now wanting the Iraq War to end. They want to believe in their Party and its invulnerability, and the anger and bitterness they are going to feel if they lose the presidency is going to be even more intense than the anger they felt when Clinton won in 1992 and 1996.

The attitude about winning elections domestically is a lot like the attitude about winning in Iraq. If you ask one of these folks what we've actually won in Iraq since 2003, the first thing they tell you is that we overthrew Saddam, something that happened in the first few days. If you ask what has been gained from the ongoing occupation, they talk about reducing violence or stopping al-Qaeda, an organization that wouldn't have been in Iraq at all but for the invasion and occupation. Similarly, if you ask one of these folks what they are hoping to win with McCain as President, a man most of them hated with the same ugly fever that they have hated most liberal Democrats over the last 20 years not so long ago, they have no idea beyond that they will have won. It's like the effect of the Cowboys winning on the egos of people in North Texas.

About half of the pundits on the air are conservative spinners. It's set up that way on purpose; that's what they call "objectivity" these days. That doesn't stop the right from hating the media anyway, but when righties hear their favorite pundits, they feel a deep sense of certainty that what they are being told is the Truth. If/When Obama wins, they will be blaming the media, then they will be blaming changes in circumstances, they will be blaming McCain personally, but they won't ever blame their pundits for giving them a rosy view of the world, they won't blame their party, and they won't blame Sarah Palin, no matter what effect she ends up having on Independents.

Remember, these folks honestly believe that a majority of Americans are against all abortion, that everybody is as freaked out about the "gay agenda" as they are, that only "hippies" are having a problem with the endless Bush wars, that Muslims deserve to be tortured because they don't worship the right God. They don't pay any attention to evidence to the contrary because it is all propaganda as far as they are concerned. When you debate with such folks, there is no point to being reasonable, since there is no common ground of facts upon which to base a discussion. They embrace what they want to believe, dismiss what they choose not to believe, and imagine to this day that the Bush "victories" over Gore and Kerry were huge and convincing instead of "skin of the teeth" thin.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:51 PM

Whott is the SpursTalk equivalent of shit.

:lol Whottt is cool. Once he gets going though there's no stopping him.

florige

09-15-2008, 04:52 PM

Of people who had a chance to actually win a general election, yes.

I actually though Hillary had a better shot at winning because she was the one who I thought wouldn't mind rolling around in the dirt with the GOP party.

JoeChalupa

09-15-2008, 04:53 PM

:lol Whottt is cool. Once he gets going though there's no stopping him.

He can talk shit with the best of them.

Findog

09-15-2008, 04:54 PM

I actually though Hillary had a better shot at winning because she was the one who I thought wouldn't mind rolling around in the dirt with the GOP party.

She didn't win the Dem nomination because she supported the war and was out of step with your basic democratic voter. whottt thinks it's because Obama gamed the caucuses.

florige

09-15-2008, 05:06 PM

Check out the Palin numbers in the Research2000 internals. A week ago she was at 52 favorable / 39 unfavorable. Today she is at 47 favorable and 43 unfavorable. The bloom is off the rose.

Sweet! I think people are starting to do their digging on her.

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:09 PM

Findog...you are not going to convince me of your opinion.

#1. I already know my opinion is more informed than yours is. I don't form a hard opinion until I'm certain of things. And I never get into a heated argument unless I am certain of my position.

#2. I've argued with you many times, and from my recollection, I've ended up being right every time.

I cannot win an argument with someone who does nothing but site leftist talking points and dismisses everything else. I am not even going to attempt it.

I say it's over.

As for the lowered approval ratings, that's because she spent the weekend getting smeared by ABC and CNN...with provable lies...the main one being that she is a creationist.

This is an outright lie, I immediately lose respect for the insight of anyone that mentions it.

When she talks that media constructed facade...which btw, totally owns you, instantly falls away...she does go straight to the people. And you can see her for what she is.

The more she talks the more popular she is going to get...outside of deliberate edited interviews to make her looks like a crazed right winger and completely ignorant on foreign policy.

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:09 PM

Sweet! I think people are starting to do their digging on her.

You are owned by the media...100%.

Findog

09-15-2008, 05:11 PM

Sweet! I think people are starting to do their digging on her.

She's just too partisan. There's a reason the righties like her and the liberals immediately took a disliking to her.

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:14 PM

whottt thinks it's because Obama gamed the caucuses.

Actually that's what the Hillary voters think...I don't know as I wasn't following it, what I do know is that he got his ass kicked in every major blue state and won the nomination based in his performance in states he's not going to win in the general.

The Democratic Party is at war with itself my friend...not the Republican.

Furthermore, the side effect of all these Hillary voters dumping the Democratic Party, is that they are every bit the propgandists/bloggers that the lefties are coming out of that movement...they know every trick they pull, and they are against the Democrats now...so the Republicans are now going to have an internet propaganda bracn to rival the Democrats...for the first time ever.

Hide and watch.

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:16 PM

She's just too partisan. There's a reason the righties like her and the liberals immediately took a disliking to her.

Good lord....you're delusional.

Findog

09-15-2008, 05:18 PM

Findog...you are not going to convince me of your opinion.

You are not going to convince me of yours.

#1. I already know my opinion is more informed than yours is. I don't form a hard opinion until I'm certain of things. And I never get into a heated argument unless I am certain of my position.

And yet I bet it never occurs to you that other people do their research and can come to different conclusions than you...therefore they must be "stupid" or something more sinister explains their positions.

#2. I've argued with you many times, and from my recollection, I've ended up being right every time.

We've argued before about the Iraq War, which I win by default because you're a hawk on that particular conflict...and we've argued about Jason Kidd, which I claimed right up until the moment the trade initially fell apart would be a disastrous move for the Mavericks to make. Once it fell apart, I felt the Mavericks had no choice to go through with it.

I cannot win an argument with someone who does nothing but site leftist talking points and dismisses everything else. I am not even going to attempt it.

Everyone who disagrees with you cites "leftist talking points."

I say it's over.

And I say it's a close election that has yet to be decided. We'll find out on November 5th who is right.

As for the lowered approval ratings, that's because she spent the weekend getting smeared by ABC and CNN...with provable lies...the main one being that she is a creationist.

And it couldn't possibly be because more Americans are becoming acquainted with her and don't like what they see, they are being led like sheep by the big, bad, wiberal media.

This is an outright lie, I immediately lose respect for the insight of anyone that mentions it.

Palin supports allowing the discussion of creationism in public schools, but says it does not have to be part of the curriculum.

http://dwb.adn.com/news/politics/elections/story/8347904p-8243554c.html

"Teach both. You know, don't be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and it's so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both."

The more she talks the more popular she is going to get...outside of deliberate edited interviews to make her looks like a crazed right winger and completely ignorant on foreign policy.

It's Charlie Gibson's fault for asking such tough questions.

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:18 PM

Todays Rasmussen Polls, last one is a Fox Poll:

Colorado
9/15 - 9/15 - McCain +2
McCain - 48%
Obama - 46%

9/07 - 9/07 - Obama +3
McCain - 46%
Obama - 49%
========================
Florida
9/15 - 9/15 - McCain +4
McCain - 49%
Obama - 44%

9/07 - 9/07 - TIED
McCain - 48%
Obama - 48%
========================
Ohio
9/15 - 9/15 - McCain +3
McCain - 48
Obama - 45

9/07 - 9/07 - McCain +7
McCain - 51%
Obama - 44%
========================
Pennsylvania
9/15 - 9/15 - TIED
McCain - 47%
Obama - 47%

9/07 - 9/07 - Obama +2
McCain - 45%
Obama - 47%
========================
Virginia
9/15 - 9/15 - TIED
McCain - 48%
Obama - 48%

9/07 - 09/07 - McCain +2
McCain - 49%
Obama - 47%

Findog

09-15-2008, 05:18 PM

Good lord....you're delusional.

Irony.

Findog

09-15-2008, 05:19 PM

Virginia veering towards Obama while Colorado and Pennsylvania trend away? That makes no sense.

florige

09-15-2008, 05:20 PM

You are owned by the media...100%.

I know the media is BS and they only are going to show you what they want to show you. They did pound Palin pretty hard over the weekend.

Anti.Hero

09-15-2008, 05:23 PM

pics or stfu

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:41 PM

You are not going to convince me of yours.

I'm not trying to...I'm posting poll data as Manny made this thread out of a discussion we were having and mentioned me at the beginning...as such it's become the defacto poll thread on the forum.

I never try to convince anyone on the forum of my opinion, in fact I deliberately make it as hard as possible for others to agree with my opinion. It takes a great deal of openmindedness for anyone to agree with me on this forum. And that is by design.

If I was just trying to get people to agree with me I wouldn't verbally abuse people in arguments and call them idiots, dumbasses, pieces of shit...etc, once we both know they're on the wrong side of the argument.

I don't do that to get them to agree with me...I do it to make it harder...just to see what they'll do.

And yet I bet it never occurs to you that other people do their research and can come to different conclusions than you...therefore they must be "stupid" or something more sinister explains their positions.

I know you're ignorant on this subject becuase you called her a creationist.

We've argued before about the Iraq War, which I win by default because you're a hawk on that particular conflict...and we've argued about Jason Kidd, which I claimed right up until the moment the trade initially fell apart would be a disastrous move for the Mavericks to make. Once it fell apart, I felt the Mavericks had no choice to go through with it.

Everyone who disagrees with you cites "leftist talking points."

Pretty much...yeah. The same exact ones, which were the first things I checked out.

About the only criticism that can be made of this woman is that she isn't as conservative as she seems...and she tends to have a ruthelsss streak with those she doesn't get along with.

Both of those are positives for me.

And I say it's a close election that has yet to be decided. We'll find out on November 5th who is right.

And it couldn't possibly be because more Americans are becoming acquainted with her and don't like what they see, they are being led like sheep by the big, bad, wiberal media.

Did you see what ABC did? Go check it out...and the CNN bio was bullshit too.

Palin supports allowing the discussion of creationism in public schools, but says it does not have to be part of the curriculum.

http://dwb.adn.com/news/politics/elections/story/8347904p-8243554c.html

"Teach both. You know, don't be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and it's so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both."

Wow...did you even read the article you posted?

Damn...you just can't honest can you?

It's Charlie Gibson's fault for asking such tough questions.

It's Charlie Gibson's fault for editing parts of her answers out, the parts that just so happened to show she is indeed a moderate.

Have you read the transcripts?

The fact that you don't see what was done there is alarming to me...something was done there, you just lack perception or the desire to see it.

whottt

09-15-2008, 05:47 PM

Virginia veering towards Obama

Virginia has been all over the map...but McCain is now up more regularly and by a bigger total than Obama is.

while Colorado and Pennsylvania trend away? That makes no sense.

Colorado has been truning towards McCain since Palin got the nomination...and so has Pennsylvania. And Minny...and NM, and NY, NJ, and Washington State.

Just show me one state that's been trending consistently in polls MORE in the direction of Obama since Palin was nominated...there's not one.

Findog

09-15-2008, 05:50 PM

Wow...did you even read the article you posted?

Damn...you just can't honest can you?

She supports the teaching of creationism in schools. She is a right-wing Christian. Why would she support the teaching of creationism in schools if she's not a creationist? How many non-creationists support teaching creationism in schools as part of some sort of "fairness doctrine?" It is logical to presume that at the very least she is sympathetic to creationist views. Do you deny she has publicly stated a preference for teaching creationism in schools? If she doesn't want people to think she's a creationist, then she should not publicly support teaching it.

whottt

09-15-2008, 06:06 PM

She supports the teaching of creationism in schools. She is a right-wing Christian. Why would she support the teaching of creationism in schools if she's not a creationist? How many non-creationists support teaching creationism in schools as part of some sort of "fairness doctrine?" It is logical to presume that at the very least she is sympathetic to creationist views. Do you deny she has publicly stated a preference for teaching creationism in schools? If she doesn't want people to think she's a creationist, then she should not publicly support teaching it.

Did you even read the article in the link you posted? Read it again if you have. There's really nothing open to interpretation there so I am confused as to why you keep getting it wrong.

And then you can go look at her record.

TheMadHatter

09-15-2008, 06:11 PM

Whottt stop talking please.

Why are you here anyways, this election is going to be a landslide for McCain right? He's going to take NY and CA too right? :lmao :lmao :lmao

You clearly haven't followed politics for very long. Polls are pretty much meaningless this far out.

Findog

09-15-2008, 06:12 PM

Did you even read the article in the link you posted? Read it again if you have. There's really nothing open to interpretation there so I am confused as to why you keep getting it wrong.

And then you can go look at her record.

I'll just state it again. When asked if she favors teaching creationism in schools, she said yes. She went on to say that mandating teaching creationism in schools would not be part of her legislative agenda, but SHE DID say she favored teaching creationism in schools as part of some sort of "healthy debate."

It wouldn't be an issue at all for her if she had simply stated like her Democratic opponents that creationism has no business in the classroom. At the very least she is sympathetic to creationist views.

whottt

09-15-2008, 06:40 PM

I'll just state it again. When asked if she favors teaching creationism in schools, she said yes. She went on to say that mandating teaching creationism in schools would not be part of her legislative agenda, but SHE DID say she favored teaching creationism in schools as part of some sort of "healthy debate."

So no...you didn't read the article you posted.

Ok.

It wouldn't be an issue at all for her if she had simply stated like her Democratic opponents that creationism has no business in the classroom.

Oh yes it would be...her every utterance is an issue. Becuase the Democrats and the media want it to me.

At the very least she is sympathetic to creationist views.

BFD...so are the jews, in fact they are more sympathetic to it than Christians are, right down to their calendar...and it come out of their part of the bible.

PS: So is Obama.

Basically the ignorant statements by the left on creationism are going to offend every one who isn't an atheist....sooner or later.

whottt

09-15-2008, 06:42 PM

Findog

09-15-2008, 06:44 PM

So no...you didn't read the article you posted.

Ok.

No, I did read the article, and I summed it up accurately in my last post. You must be embarrassed about it to keep insisting up is down and left is right.

Oh yes it would be...her every utterance is an issue. Becuase the Democrats and the media want it to me.

She's on record as having supported the teaching of creationism in public schools in her 2006 gubernatorial debate. But it's the fault of the "media" and the "liberals" that this is being reported.

PS: So is Obama.

Link? Source? Your ass?

Findog

09-15-2008, 06:45 PM

Personally...I'm kind of sick of atheists and their bigotry and intolerance. I want someone to show me the great atheistic civilization...

Atheists think they're smart, but really they're ignorant, as ignorant and as dumb as animals...who share the same belief system.

And they've accomplished nothing in history of note.

You don't have to be an atheist to not support the teaching of creationism in public schools. So now we've moved on from stomping our feet and insisting against all evidence that Sarah Palin supports teaching creationism...to a tentative defense against those who don't support teaching creationism.

whottt

09-15-2008, 07:00 PM

You don't have to be an atheist to not support the teaching of creationism in public schools.

It's atheistic bigotry that leads to conclusions like...because someone is christian they don't believe in dinosaurs.

Seriously...what an ignorant and bigoted statement.

I've studied just about every religion in history from the dawn of man at a cursory level...and the study has left me with the conclusion that:

A. you cannot build a society without spiritual beliefs...and

B. that it is first and foremost what sets us apart from the animals.

Plus...lo and behold most scienfitic theories are no concluding there is a common human ancestor, to anyone that truly understand evolution and natural selection...this would be not be a revelation, but a matter of common sense.

There's a lot of stuff like that...

All I discover is that most atheistic "intellectuals" are idiots with virtually no imagination who lack even the childlike intellectual capacity it takes to understand a concept as simple as Theistic Evolution or Evolutionary Creationism...

Because there is undeniable evidence that the writers of the Old Testament had Scientific knowledge and insigt into the origins of this planet that it was not possible for them to have Pre-dating Science....

I say the bible is a Pre-Scientific explanation of the creation of Earth...and I have yet to meet an atheistic intellectual that has a fucking clue what I am talking about...

Instead they sound like me the first time my dog got hit by a car and died.

And let me tell you something my friend, the more you study the history of man with an open mind...the more sense those theories(Theistic Evolution etc) begin to make.

So now we've moved on from stomping our feet and insisting against all evidence that Sarah Palin supports teaching creationism...to a tentative defense against those who don't support teaching creationism.

No we're still waiting for you to read the entire article you posted and cite some sort of evidence that you have...so far you've only proven that you read the parts you want to use to back up your argument.

We'll get those synapses firing if it's the last thing we do.

Supergirl

09-15-2008, 08:43 PM

BFD...so are the jews, in fact they are more sympathetic to it than Christians are, right down to their calendar...and it come out of their part of the bible.
.

OK, this is about the most ignorant, ridiculous thing I have ever read. Have you MET any Jewish people?

I am Jewish. I have met a LOT of Jews - Reform, Reconstructionist, Conservative, Orthodox, Jewish Renewal, you name it. (We like to subdivide. But that's another topic) First off: the vast majority of Jewish people in America are Reform. They all believe heartily in evolution and science, and are able to integrate their religious practice with modern life.

Second, even among the Orthodox, the prevailing view is that while G-d created the world in 7 days, one can integrate science into that view by opening up the interpretation that nowhere in the Bible does it say how long a day was, or what a "day" meant - so a day could have been a million years. In general, the Jewish point of view is that religious belief should not counter scientific evidence and modernity, but Judaism should try and apply our ethical teachings to modern life.

Obviously, there's a few fringe crackpots in Judaism, just like in any religion, but if that's where you're getting your information, you are very mistaken.

whottt

09-15-2008, 08:55 PM

OK, this is about the most ignorant, ridiculous thing I have ever read. Have you MET any Jewish people?

:lmao my ex-wife is Jewish. I had a Jewish wedding. Went to a Jewsish Synagogue often.

I am Jewish. I have met a LOT of Jews - Reform, Reconstructionist, Conservative, Orthodox, Jewish Renewal, you name it. (We like to subdivide. But that's another topic) First off: the vast majority of Jewish people in America are Reform. They all believe heartily in evolution and science, and are able to integrate their religious practice with modern life.

And so do the majority of Christians...that's my entire point.

Did you know Sarah Palin's father is a science teacher?

What I mean is that it is bigotry to judge someone as believing dinosaurs didn't exist because they are christians because of what is written in the old testament, and people that make that claim are ignorant and religious bigots...

Not just bigoted towards christians...but bigoted towards jews, they're just too stupid to realize their bigoted towards jews because they don't realize the Old Testament is the Torah.

Second, even among the Orthodox, the prevailing view is that while G-d created the world in 7 days, one can integrate science into that view by opening up the interpretation that nowhere in the Bible does it say how long a day was, or what a "day" meant - so a day could have been a million years. In general, the Jewish point of view is that religious belief should not counter scientific evidence and modernity, but Judaism should try and apply our ethical teachings to modern life.

No shit?

It's called Theistic Evolution or Evolutionary Creationism. I've been talking about it for a few weeks in this forum now and get called an idiot.

Obviously, there's a few fringe crackpots in Judaism, just like in any religion, but if that's where you're getting your information, you are very mistaken.

What year is it by the Jewish Calendar and why? That's what I meant.

Then apologize to me for not understanding what I meant...obviously I know a great deal about Judaism.

Supergirl

09-15-2008, 09:13 PM

:lmao my ex-wife is Jewish. I had a Jewish wedding. Went to a Jewsish Synagogue often.

And so do the majority of Christians...that's my entire point.

Did you know Sarah Palin's father is a science teacher?

What I mean is that it is bigotry to judge someone as believing dinosaurs didn't exist because they are christians because of what is written in the old testament, and people that make that claim are ignorant and religious bigots...

Not just bigoted towards christians...but bigoted towards jews, they're just too stupid to realize their bigoted towards jews because they don't realize the Old Testament is the Torah.

No shit?

It's called Theistic Evolution or Evolutionary Creationism. I've been talking about it for a few weeks in this forum now and get called an idiot.

What year is it by the Jewish Calendar and why? That's what I meant.

Then apologize to me for not understanding what I meant...obviously I know a great deal about Judaism.

I think the point is, there are a lot of fundamentalist Christians who go around denying that evolution is a scientific fact, which is not to say there are not plenty of Christians who are able to integrate religious belief and modernity. But those same fundies are the ones who want to legislate THEIR beliefs, and put them forth in the classroom as if they have equal place alongside science - which they don't. If those views came from fundamentalist Jews or Muslims, it will still be wrong. But if you notice, Jews aren't the ones going around calling for the 10 Commandments to be placed in state buildings - even though they subscribe to them, too. That sort of thinking and behavior is born out of the preaching nature of Christianity combined with being the majority - Muslims are just as preachy, and if they were the majority (as they are in the Middle East) they'd be acting the same way. And the Orthodox minority in Israel also often tries to act the same way --- but so far, the secular majority in Israel keeps them in check for the most part.

TheMadHatter

09-15-2008, 09:14 PM

If you haven't realized by now whottt talks entirely out of his ass. It's clear he's too young to discuss the issues that he pretends to be an expert on.

I stopped listening to him the moment he claimed CA and NY would go for McCain. It takes a special kind of stupid for someone to make that statement.

whottt

09-15-2008, 09:36 PM

I think the point is, there are a lot of fundamentalist Christians who go around denying that evolution is a scientific fact,

Lots of people with all sorts of spiritual beliefs don't automatically believe in evolution.

which is not to say there are not plenty of Christians who are able to integrate religious belief and modernity. But those same fundies are the ones who want to legislate THEIR beliefs, and put them forth in the classroom as if they have equal place alongside science - which they don't.

Yeap...and there is not a damn shred of evidence that Palin is one of them and quite a bit of evidence to the contrary.

A#1 being that her dad is a science teacher.

At no point has she ever said she is a creationist or believes the bible should be interpreted literally...and if she did, I'd like to see it.

If those views came from fundamentalist Jews or Muslims, it will still be wrong. But if you notice, Jews aren't the ones going around calling for the 10 Commandments to be placed in state buildings - even though they subscribe to them, too.

Right, in fact it's usually the Jews that are the ones that don't want them in there....but that's got more to do with the fact that they get pissed at Christians pushing Christianity than it is that they actually disagree with the 10 commandments.

Jews don't push their religion, in fact they do just the opposite, and Christians do push their religion...that pisses every Jew I've ever known off to a degree.

Plus, they've been on the wrong end of Christian Nationalism a few times. Personally I think you guys should be more pissed off at the Catholics than the Baptists....

And that pushing Christianity is also why some Jews aren't going to like the idea of Palin becoming VP...at the same time, I think a lot of Jews are going to like the idea of Palin as VP more than they are the idea of Obama as President.

It'll be interesting...that's for sure.

That sort of thinking and behavior is born out of the preaching nature of Christianity combined with being the majority - Muslims are just as preachy, and if they were the majority (as they are in the Middle East) they'd be acting the same way. And the Orthodox minority in Israel also often tries to act the same way --- but so far, the secular majority in Israel keeps them in check for the most part.

Eh...there's no law against pushing religion and Palin has clearly shown the ability to separate Church and State...you should give her a break and stop having a bigoted view of her becuase she feels like the subject of creationism should be open to debate in science classes.

America was founded on the free exchange of ideas...by Christians.

Anti.Hero

09-15-2008, 09:47 PM

Ya'll have lots of energy.

florige

09-15-2008, 09:58 PM

Virginia has been all over the map...but McCain is now up more regularly and by a bigger total than Obama is.

Colorado has been truning towards McCain since Palin got the nomination...and so has Pennsylvania. And Minny...and NM, and NY, NJ, and Washington State.

Just show me one state that's been trending consistently in polls MORE in the direction of Obama since Palin was nominated...there's not one.

But Whottt come on now man, you have to admit yourself that since last week the numbers for McCain have started to slow down. Thats why I said it was due to the bump/Palin pick. Last week he was on fire, and thus far Obama has still managed to draw even, or within 1 point in most major polls.
The polls next week should be straight up polls with no convention bounce. Plus the first Palin/Biden debate is next week as well.

whottt

09-15-2008, 10:09 PM

Ya'll have lots of energy.

I'm actually pretty excited to find out Supergirl is jewish...I bet she's got nice tits and is probably good in bed.

MannyIsGod

09-15-2008, 10:14 PM

I'm actually pretty excited to find out Supergirl is jewish...I bet she's got nice tits and is probably good in bed.

:lmao

MannyIsGod

09-15-2008, 10:15 PM

I don't know how people can hate whottt - he's one of my favorite posters.

whottt

09-15-2008, 10:32 PM

I don't know how people can hate whottt - he's one of my favorite posters.

Thanks Manny, the feeling is mutual ;)

Supergirl

09-15-2008, 10:34 PM

I'm actually pretty excited to find out Supergirl is jewish...I bet she's got nice tits and is probably good in bed.

OY.:bang

TheMadHatter

09-15-2008, 10:35 PM

Whottt is my favorite poster too..........his takes are fucking hilarious.

florige

09-15-2008, 10:37 PM

Another positive in VA.....

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8

whottt

09-15-2008, 11:18 PM

Another positive in VA.....

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8

That's the only positive in VA...it's the one that was already posted.

whottt

09-15-2008, 11:24 PM

http://www.suffolk.edu/30808.html

Another Ohio poll with the exact same result as the Survey USA:

McCain 46
Obama 42

Bartleby

09-15-2008, 11:29 PM

The stock market woes spell trouble for McCain. Don't be surprised if Obama opens up a 2 point lead overall in most of the national polls by next week.

whottt

09-15-2008, 11:34 PM

Start spreading the news...New York is turning into a battleground fast:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/15/mccain-takes-lead-in-ohio-new-poll-shows/

ALBANY - Republican Sen. John McCain got an 8-point bounce on Long Island after the Republican convention, taking a narrow 44 to 39 percent lead over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, according to the latest Dowling Polling Institute data.

Statewide, McCain also made gains, shrinking Obama's lead in heavily Democratic New York, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll. Obama led 46 percent to 41 percent, down from an 8-point edge last month and an 18-point bulge in June. With the 3.9-percentage-point margin of error, the race is a statistical dead heat.

The Dowling poll of 600 likely voters in Nassau and Suffolk flips the slight 42-38 percent edge Obama held going into the Democratic convention last month, but also amounts to a dead heat because of the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll also showed that nearly 31 percent could still change their minds.

"McCain got a much bigger bounce from his convention," said Michael Dawidziak, the Dowling institute's director, attributing the gains to the fact that the GOP convention came after Labor Day, when more people were watching, while the surprise selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin the morning after Obama's speech "squelched his bounce."

DNC photos PHOTOS In the Dowling poll, both candidates solidified support among their party bases, but McCain's biggest gain came among those describing themselves as moderates, jumping from 31 percent to 43 percent. In that group, Obama dropped from 48 percent to 36 percent.

Long Islanders also had strong feelings about vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin -- 44 percent of them favorable and 34 percent unfavorable. More local men -- 30 percent -- said Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain, while only 25 percent of women felt that way.

In the Siena poll, 47 percent of the 626 respondents said they believed Palin was qualified to become president, compared with 41 percent who disagreed.

For every five Democrats in the state, there are only three Republicans. But "New York's overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote," said pollster Steven Greenberg.

Blake Zeff, Obama's state communications director, discounted the poll, saying "enthusiasm" for the Democrat "here in New York is overwhelming."

whottt

09-15-2008, 11:35 PM

The stock market woes spell trouble for McCain. Don't be surprised if Obama opens up a 2 point lead overall in most of the national polls by next week.

Evidentally you haven't paid any attention to Obama's tax plan...he intends to tax the living shit out of Capital Gains...that is going to kill stock market investing.

whottt

09-15-2008, 11:38 PM

Before you guys dismiss that poll being Long Island...

Keep in mind...Long Island is both Queens and Brooklyn.

When Queens flips Rudy Guiliani gets to be mayor and Ptaki gets elected govenor...if Brooklyn flips it's completely insane.

New York only goes Dem because of it's biggest boroughs and Manhattan, the rest of the state goes Republican.

]Blake Zeff, Obama's state communications director, discounted the poll, saying "enthusiasm" for the Democrat "here in New York is overwhelming."

:lmao I bet it is...nothing says enthusiasm like taking 39% in the primaries :lol

W could do better than that. In fact he did.

TheMadHatter

09-15-2008, 11:54 PM

It's fascinating how society can produce individuals as stupid as Whottt.

The day you see McCain actively campaigning in NY is the day NY is in play. And fortunately for America that day will never come.

florige

09-16-2008, 07:24 AM

http://www.suffolk.edu/30808.html

Another Ohio poll with the exact same result as the Survey USA:

McCain 46
Obama 42

One state at a time Whottt....:lol

VaSpursFan

09-16-2008, 08:37 AM

Before you guys dismiss that poll being Long Island...

Keep in mind...Long Island is both Queens and Brooklyn.

When Queens flips Rudy Guiliani gets to be mayor and Ptaki gets elected govenor...if Brooklyn flips it's completely insane.

New York only goes Dem because of it's biggest boroughs and Manhattan, the rest of the state goes Republican.

i appreciate your enthusiasm for McCain but this post is misleading. As a former Brooklyn resident, I will tell you this...the article polled 600 residents in Nassau and Suffolk counties, neither of which includes any of the city's boroughs, so the Queens and Brooklyn reference is invalid. I'm certain that if you poll 600 residents in Brooklyn and Queens you would get SIGNIFICANTLY different results.

NY is not in play or swing state and McCain knows this or else he would be there trying to flip it.

MannyIsGod

09-16-2008, 09:03 AM

Palin's favlorable/unfavorable ratings are trending down for her. I think the best the McCain campaign is going to get out of her is past us and its all downhill from here on out unless she manages to destroy Biden in the debate. Now, I don't put that beyond the realm of possibility but to be quite honest I put it in the extremely unlikely category.

Can't wait for today's state polls.

Crookshanks

09-16-2008, 10:27 AM

Battleground Update: The Red States Get Redder, The Blue States Get Purpler
Andrew Romano

One week ago today, I launched Stumper's general-election coverage with an in-depth look at where the "Race for the White House" stood in the wake of the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions. While the national polls had swung about 9 points in John McCain's direction since the Democrats left Denver, the Real Clear Politics electoral map still tilted every so slightly toward Barack Obama, 273 to 265. But the Illinois senator's slim lead was hardly set in stone--as I noted at the time. "No battleground state polls have been released since the second day of the Republican Convention," I wrote. "If the national surveys are right and McCain has in fact received a 5-point post-St. Paul bounce, that enthusiasm will almost certainly trickle down." I promised to revisit the map once the dust had settled.

Well, now it has. And what it shows is ... drumroll, please ... more of the same. According to Real Clear Politics, this week's map, posted above, is identical to last week's. Obama is still leading 273 electoral votes to 265.

Does that mean that Obama has emerged unscathed? Hardly. The Democratic nominee may have managed to maintain his razor-thin eight-vote margin--but he's done it by the skin of his teeth. Even if McCain has yet to flip a state, a closer look at the latest battleground polling reveals that the Arizonan's gains have, in fact, trickled down. They've had two effects. First, a handful of red states that Obama once hoped to win now seem either out of reach or more favorable to McCain, whether temporarily or permanently. And second, McCain is suddenly within striking distance in a group of Blue States where Obama until recently enjoyed a comfortable lead. The result: a campaign that once boasted about redrawing the electoral map by targeting an unprecedented 18 battlegrounds has been forced to focus on a more familiar swath of states--and even play defense in places it had hoped to win easily. In the last week, the Red States have gotten redder--and the Blue States have gotten purpler.

Take Montana and Georgia. In 2004, George W. Bush won the former by 20.5 percent and the later by 16.6 percent. But after clinching the Democratic nomination in early June, Obama put both states on his target list and deployed hundreds of volunteers and staffers to Atlanta and Helena to open field offices and register voters. He had reason for optimism. In early July, Rasmussen showed Obama ahead in Montana by 5 points; at the same time, an Insider Advantage poll put him a mere 2 points behind McCain in Georgia. But the latest surveys from those same firms tell a different story. According to an Insider Advantage sounding released last Thursday, McCain now leads 56-38 in the Peach State--an 18-point gulf. Meanwhile, the first postconvention poll by Rasmussen gives the Republican an 11-point advantage in the Treasure State, 53-42. Real Clear Politics has McCain ahead by an average of 13.4 percent in the former and 9.0 percent in the latter. Which means they may be out of reach.

The news for Obama in the key Bush states of Ohio and Florida isn't any better. In late July, the battle for the Sunshine State was tied at about 45 percent on average, and after Denver, Obama trailed by as little as 2.6 percent. But in the post-St. Paul period, McCain's Florida numbers have skyrocketed. Since last Monday, four surveys have hit the wires, with PPP (McCain +5), Quinnipiac (+7) and Insider Advantage (+8) all showing a growing lead for McCain; only FOX News still puts Obama within striking distance. According to the RCP average, McCain now boasts his largest edge (5 percent) since late June. The McCainward shift in the Buckeye State looks much the same. Of the six polls released since St. Paul, five show the Arizonan ahead--boosting him to his biggest RCP lead in this crucial, close-run battleground (2.5 percent) since mid-May. Even Virginia, a Bush state where Obama had held McCain to a tie for much of the cycle, seems to have drifted right. There, McCain now leads by 2.6 percent, 49.3 to 46.7--the largest margin for either candidate since May. The Republican nominee has also edged ahead in the latest polls out of New Mexico and Nevada--both Red in 2004, both leaning toward Obama before St. Paul.

But the most troubling developments for the Dems are probably in two states Kerry won in 2004: Pennsylvania and Minnesota. At the end of July, Obama led in the Keystone State by a whopping nine points, 51.7 percent to 41.7 percent; at the start of September he was ahead by a healthy five, 47.4 to 42.4. The three polls released since St. Paul, however, show McCain closing fast. In the Quinnipiac survey, McCain trails by a measly three points after lagging by seven in mid-August; Strategic Vision and Rasmussen put him within two. Overall, Obama's average lead in Pennsylvania--2.3 percent--is his smallest since capturing the nomination. And while a CNN/Gallup poll released between the conventions gave Obama a 12-point lead in Minnesota, the two soundings out since the GOP left the state earlier this month suggest that McCain is either tied with Obama at 45 percent (Star Tribune) or trailing by a statistically insignificant 2-percent margin (Survey USA). Couple that with the surprising 46 Obama-43 McCain result in the latest Wisconsin survey, and the Rust Belt and upper Midwest are starting to look too close for Chicago's comfort.

It's not all doom and gloom for Obama. So far this month, he's seems to have solidified his narrow margin in Michigan and New Hampshire (states McCain is hoping to flip) while expanding his edges in the Bush states of Iowa and Colorado, where he now leads by 9.7 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. If he wins these states in November--along with Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico--he wins the White House. New Democratic registrations and Chicago's sophisticated field operation will surely help. But what the last week of polling has shown beyond any doubt is that McCain's successful convention and shocking choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate have shifted the map ever so slightly to the right, transforming a landscape that favored Obama into a landscape that favors, well, no one. For the next six weeks, then, expect Obama and Joe Biden to play defense (Pennsylvania, Michigan) as well as offense (Colorado, Virginia, Nevada) while focusing much of their attention on the king of all swing states: Ohio. But don't expect the final map to look all that different from 2004.

TheMadHatter

09-16-2008, 10:29 AM

Crookshanks

09-16-2008, 10:31 AM

McCain's bounce is starting to fade. The negativity and lies of his campaign are starting to catch up as well as the bad economic news.

I'll say this. If Obama does not improve his standings this week in the polls it's time to start worying.

Did you not read the article above your post? McCain's bounce is NOT starting to fade - he's making steady gains in several blue states!

2centsworth

09-16-2008, 10:39 AM

Financial, Auto, and Energy industries are taking a had close look.

Obama loses in 2 out of the 3 for sure. Auto is still up for grabs, but Obama will lose that too if somehow McCain can make gains on HealthCare.

2centsworth

09-16-2008, 10:39 AM

Did you not read the article above your post? McCain's bounce is NOT starting to fade - he's making steady gains in several blue states!

why read when you know everything and everyone else is stupid.

whottt

09-16-2008, 11:34 AM

i appreciate your enthusiasm for McCain but this post is misleading. As a former Brooklyn resident, I will tell you this...the article polled 600 residents in Nassau and Suffolk counties, neither of which includes any of the city's boroughs, so the Queens and Brooklyn reference is invalid.
Eh my bad. I didn't read the part about Nassau and Suffolk. Yeah that explains why McCain has a 5 point lead.

However, this does not explain by Obama only has a 5 point lead in the state. An 18 point swing from the last poll by this company.

I'm certain that if you poll 600 residents in Brooklyn and Queens you would get SIGNIFICANTLY different results.

I agree about Brooklyn, which is why I qualified it with the word "insane". I do not agree about Queens...since Guilianni and Ptaki both took over 50% of the vote there(and it was out of the blue).

NY is not in play or swing state and McCain knows this or else he would be there trying to flip it.

We shall see.

Just out of curiosity, who are you voting for?

whottt

09-16-2008, 11:41 AM

NY is not in play or swing state and McCain knows this or else he would be there trying to flip it.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/2008/09/01/2008-09-01_new_york_gop_delegation_lookin_for_love_.html

New York GOP delegation lookin' for love from McCain
Tuesday, September 2nd 2008, 12:05 AM

ST. PAUL - New York Republicans want John McCain to see their state as more than a giant ATM.

Just because they're an endangered species with no statewide offices - and poised to potentially lose at least three of their six U.S. House seats and control of the state Senate - doesn't mean they should be ignored, said Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.).

"I think he should be doing more here," said King, one of the few New York elected officials attending the Republican National Convention.

"There are areas of New York where McCain can do well," King insisted. "I would say Long Island, Queens, Brooklyn and parts of upstate. I'm hoping some of the people around him are getting the message."

The last GOP presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan, in 1980 and 1984. Democratic enrollment has grown since then, while the number of registered Republicans has shrunk.

The New York GOP was heartened by a recent Siena poll that found Barack Obama leading McCain by just 8 percentage points, 47% to 39%, compared with 50% to 37% in July.

State GOP Chairman Joe Mondello wants McCain to campaign with state Senate candidates targeted by the Democrats - perhaps Queens Sen. Serphin Maltese or Long Island Sen. Caesar Trunzo.

"New York is more than just a place to stop and get money," the chairman declared.

Mondello recalled how Reagan campaigned with Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos in 1984 during Skelos' second attempt to oust Democratic state Sen. Carol Berman.

The chairman is convinced that made the difference for Skelos, who beat Berman, 51% to 49%.

"The same thing could happen with McCain," Mondello said. "I believe he could carry New York" - and also carry GOP senators on his coattails.

McCain has largely bypassed New York, except for fund-raising. He has no campaign headquarters in New York State, preferring to let his New Jersey headquarters do double duty.

Mondello was infuriated following a recent conference call during which he was informed McCain planned to "write off" New York, a source familiar with the call said.

Ed Cox, head of McCain's New York campaign, insisted no such decision has been made and said: "We are very competitive in New York. He will be in New York campaigning, yes."

Apology awaited.

2centsworth

09-16-2008, 11:47 AM

McCain wins with Pennsylvannia and with the latest fraud of an energy bill I see McCain pulling ahead 'till the debates. If NY swings toward McCain, and it can with financials needing massive cash infusions , it's over for Obama. Obama has a 5pt lead in NY.

The debates are going to decide this thing.

I can see Obama's message of calling everyone in the financial industry a bunch of crooks working in his favor, not.

whottt

09-16-2008, 12:25 PM

Two new Jersey polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nj/new_jersey_mccain_vs_obama-250.html

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/04 - 09/14 -- 48.4 42.6 Obama +5.8
Monmouth/Gannett 09/11 - 09/14 589 LV 49 41 Obama +8
Quinnipiac 09/10 - 09/14 1187 LV 48 45 Obama +3

Including a second one showing Obama with only a 3 point lead among likely voters.

I notice something interesting...the larger the sample size of the poll...the worse Obama fares. The two polls that contacted the most voters are the ones that show Obama with a 3 point lead.

The two polls with the smallest sample sizes are the ones that give him the biggest lead.

JoeChalupa

09-16-2008, 12:33 PM

Come on Barack!!!!

jman3000

09-16-2008, 12:53 PM

edit

Findog

09-16-2008, 12:56 PM

There's a poll out right now that has McCain up by 2 points in Montana. I suppose Barack is going to turn Montana blue and McCain is going to turn NJ and NY red. :lol

jman3000

09-16-2008, 12:56 PM

fuck me.. i need to learn to read ahead.

smeagol

09-16-2008, 01:07 PM

I'll say this. If Obama does not improve his standings this week in the polls it's time to start worying.

I'll say this. If the Dems can't win the presidency this time around, then it's time to fold the tents and dismantle the party.

Somewhere Bill and Hiillary are laughing their asses off.

2centsworth

09-16-2008, 01:17 PM

I'll say this. If the Dems can't win the presidency this time around, then it's time to fold the tents and dismantle the party.

Somewhere Bill and Hiillary are laughing their asses off.

The Clintons want control. Obama winning is not in the game plan. The Clintons will do just enough not to piss people off.

I would vote for Bill right now.

Findog

09-16-2008, 01:17 PM

I'll say this. If the Dems can't win the presidency this time around, then it's time to fold the tents and dismantle the party.

Somewhere Bill and Hiillary are laughing their asses off.

No, it would be a bad electorate. Sorry, but it's true. Might not always win, but always right.

VaSpursFan

09-16-2008, 01:53 PM

Just out of curiosity, who are you voting for?

i don't want to vote for either one of these fuckers because neither is going to change anything. i don't affiliate with any party because i don't identify with solely liberal or conservative ideologies. life and people are too complex to be pegged into one of the two choices we're given.

i generally vote for the lesser of the two evils. i'm voting obama this time because the repubs had 8 years and it's time to alternate. then when the dems fuck it'll be time to alternate again.

whottt

09-16-2008, 01:55 PM

i'm voting obama this time

It was a rhetorical question :smokin

smeagol

09-16-2008, 01:59 PM

No, it would be a bad electorate. Sorry, but it's true. Might not always win, but always right.

:lmao

VaSpursFan

09-16-2008, 02:01 PM

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/2008/09/01/2008-09-01_new_york_gop_delegation_lookin_for_love_.html

New York GOP delegation lookin' for love from McCain
Tuesday, September 2nd 2008, 12:05 AM

ST. PAUL - New York Republicans want John McCain to see their state as more than a giant ATM.

Just because they're an endangered species with no statewide offices - and poised to potentially lose at least three of their six U.S. House seats and control of the state Senate - doesn't mean they should be ignored, said Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.).

"I think he should be doing more here," said King, one of the few New York elected officials attending the Republican National Convention.

"There are areas of New York where McCain can do well," King insisted. "I would say Long Island, Queens, Brooklyn and parts of upstate. I'm hoping some of the people around him are getting the message."

The last GOP presidential candidate to win New York was Ronald Reagan, in 1980 and 1984. Democratic enrollment has grown since then, while the number of registered Republicans has shrunk.

The New York GOP was heartened by a recent Siena poll that found Barack Obama leading McCain by just 8 percentage points, 47% to 39%, compared with 50% to 37% in July.

State GOP Chairman Joe Mondello wants McCain to campaign with state Senate candidates targeted by the Democrats - perhaps Queens Sen. Serphin Maltese or Long Island Sen. Caesar Trunzo.

"New York is more than just a place to stop and get money," the chairman declared.

Mondello recalled how Reagan campaigned with Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos in 1984 during Skelos' second attempt to oust Democratic state Sen. Carol Berman.

The chairman is convinced that made the difference for Skelos, who beat Berman, 51% to 49%.

"The same thing could happen with McCain," Mondello said. "I believe he could carry New York" - and also carry GOP senators on his coattails.

McCain has largely bypassed New York, except for fund-raising. He has no campaign headquarters in New York State, preferring to let his New Jersey headquarters do double duty.

Mondello was infuriated following a recent conference call during which he was informed McCain planned to "write off" New York, a source familiar with the call said.

Ed Cox, head of McCain's New York campaign, insisted no such decision has been made and said: "We are very competitive in New York. He will be in New York campaigning, yes."

Apology awaited.

if NY was seriously in play, one would think he would have an office somewhere in the state. and...there wouldn't be conference calls saying that McCain is writing off the state.

again, i appreciate your enthusiasm but there is no way McCain takes NY.

VaSpursFan

09-16-2008, 02:03 PM

It was a rhetorical question :smokin

:lol it is what it is bro...this is the lamest field of presidential candidates in recent memory. i seriously considered not voting.

whottt

09-16-2008, 02:25 PM

:lol it is what it is bro...this is the lamest field of presidential candidates in recent memory. i seriously considered not voting.

You gotta be kidding me...nothing is worse than Bush Kerry in 04. This is light years ahead of that.

whottt

09-16-2008, 02:26 PM

if NY was seriously in play, one would think he would have an office somewhere in the state. and...there wouldn't be conference calls saying that McCain is writing off the state.

again, i appreciate your enthusiasm but there is no way McCain takes NY.

I've got an interesting bit of info concerning fund raising to make on this but I have to go class right now...I'll be back later.

TheMadHatter

09-16-2008, 04:47 PM

Hey Whottt

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/election_2008_new_york_presidential_election

What up now bitch?

Findog

09-16-2008, 04:56 PM

C'mon, we're not whottt, we don't count our chickens before they hatch. McCain is losing his convention bounce, but he has a chance to win this thing.

Findog

09-16-2008, 04:57 PM

The Siena Marist poll that had McCain competitive in NY was an absurd outlier. I just wish McCain would fire Steve Schmidt and hire whottt....

MannyIsGod

09-16-2008, 05:01 PM

Does McCain go anywhere without Palin? Palin McCain 08.

TheMadHatter

09-16-2008, 05:02 PM

McCain can't draw crowds by himself. Palin can't speak by herself. Match made in heaven.

Findog

09-16-2008, 05:05 PM

She wasn't lipstick on a pig, she was Viagra for the flaccid McCain campaign.

MannyIsGod

09-16-2008, 05:08 PM

I'm glad they're starting to ignore her though. 2 polls today showed her unfavorables rising rapidly and she comes down to earth. The gaffes the past 2 days by the McCain campaign have helped turn the tide a bit. I'm not happy at the moment, but I'm not really upset

whottt

09-16-2008, 05:32 PM

I'm not sold on the Rasmussen total for NY...I know for a fact their polls are weighted by party registration heavily in favor of the Democrats.

Plus...this poll still represents an 8 point swing in McCain's favor over the last Rasmussen Poll in NY, which Obama up by 20, so it's still trending in McCain's favor.

Keep in mind...I said by November it would be in play, the fact that it is already showing signs of being in play is a bad one for Obama supporters...I said by November. And I've got several polls showing me my instincts are right.

Suposedly Rasmussen is going to poll New Jersey and Washington as well...it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with.

TheMadHatter

09-16-2008, 05:42 PM

Findog

09-16-2008, 05:54 PM

I'm not sold on the Rasmussen total for NY...

Because it doesn't have the result you like

I know for a fact their polls are weighted by party registration heavily in favor of the Democrats.

Actually, you're wrong on that, his party ID is weighted +5 in favor of Democrats, same as most major polls.

Plus...this poll still represents an 8 point swing in McCain's favor over the last Rasmussen Poll in NY, which Obama up by 20, so it's still trending in McCain's favor.

:lmao

Keep in mind...I said by November it would be in play, the fact that it is already showing signs of being in play is a bad one for Obama supporters...I said by November. And I've got several polls showing me my instincts are right.

Well, I guess McCain should fire Steve Schmidt and hire you because they obviously don't see things the same way.

Findog

09-16-2008, 05:55 PM

This guy is better than the RNC spinmeisters. They need to hire him now.

The bottom line is anyone who knows anything about politics knows that NY is completely out of play for McCain. It's a typical example of a blue state that gets bluer as the election closes, just like NJ/PA/MI.

whottt would do better than that Tucker fucktard they keep trotting out on the cable news shows. He spins bullshit with no apologies or shame.

Findog

09-16-2008, 06:10 PM

It's ironic to hear whottt complaining about Dem bias for Rasmussen, since the guy is a Republican and evangelical Christian with ties to the Republican Party. If there are any complaints with this guy, they're coming from lefties who say his polls aren't weighted enough in favor of party ID for the Dems.

There is a debate about what the party ID should be: in the primaries it was +8-9 Democrat, last election I believe it was +5. Some believe the higher number is more accurate to reflect the new voter registration efforts made by the DNC, others think +5 is more accurate to reflect conservative voters coming on board with the Palin pick. But, nonetheless, another example of whottt not knowing what he's talking about.

Ignignokt

09-16-2008, 06:14 PM

Findog :lmao. He said he's independent!! :lmao

Findog

09-16-2008, 06:20 PM

Findog :lmao. He said he's independent!! :lmao

I've voted for Republicans, Democrats, Greens and Libertarians. Sorry if the rest of us don't divide the world into a left/right, dem/repub axis. Both major parties suck, but Obama is CLEARLY the lesser of two evils here. It's not even close.

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:31 PM

Because it doesn't have the result you like

Because it's got results way out of synch with 2 other polls I've seen. Plus I know for a fact Rasmussen is the last to adjust their weights.

Actually, you're wrong on that, his party ID is weighted +5 in favor of Democrats, same as most major polls.

:lmao

No he alters it, in fact he's altered his National polls. But yeah...there has been a huge swing in party affiliation, and his polls don't reflect that. He just adjusted the weight for the National Polls on Monday.

Well, I guess McCain should fire Steve Schmidt and hire you because they obviously don't see things the same way.

Probably would be a good idea.

I didn't say he was biased, I understand what he does, I just don't think it's that accurate yet.

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:36 PM

It's ironic to hear whottt complaining about Dem bias for Rasmussen,

Link?

I said his poll is weighted heavily in favor of Democrats...I didn't say he was biased.

since the guy is a Republican and evangelical Christian with ties to the Republican Party. If there are any complaints with this guy, they're coming from lefties who say his polls aren't weighted enough in favor of party ID for the Dems.

I'm not complaining...I'm just not ready to accept that poll as the be all end all...and I've got legitimate reasons for doing so.

#1. The weights.
#2. Other polls showing different results.

There is a debate about what the party ID should be: in the primaries it was +8-9 Democrat, last election I believe it was +5. Some believe the higher number is more accurate to reflect the new voter registration efforts made by the DNC, others think +5 is more accurate to reflect conservative voters coming on board with the Palin pick. But, nonetheless, another example of whottt not knowing what he's talking about.

The Democratic Registration figures are way off...because they had a much more exciting primary than the Republicans did.

I myself am a registered Democrat right now because I voted in the Democratic Primary...not in the Republican.

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:38 PM

In case you're wondering...Hillary, because she had a better stance on the Iraq war at the time and that was the most important issue to me at that moment.

Findog

09-16-2008, 06:46 PM

In case you're wondering...Hillary, because she had a better stance on the Iraq war at the time and that was the most important issue to me at that moment.

Obama's campaign says that they have a built-in formula to account for no-shows and votes for other candidates of the people they register. I'm just not worried about "Hillary's former supporters" when so many voted in the Dem primary to drag things out. A lot of those Hillary votes were never going to be Obama's in the general anyway.

Hillary's Iraq record is ironically what lost her the Dem nomination. If she had pulled an Edwards and said "My bad," she'd be the nominee today. We can debate the wisdom of taking an anti-war platform into a general election, but it's not a smart way to win the Democratic nomination.

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:50 PM

Obama's campaign says that they have a built-in formula to account for no-shows and votes for other candidates of the people they register.

I'll bet that they say they do.

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:52 PM

Rasmussen trend for NY...

McCain clearly is doing better there now than he ever has before. I want to check the number of people polled btw.

Keep in mind...NY is the capital of the liberal media, for instance the New York Times had 4 hit pieces on Palin in a single day....like I've been saying the more Palin talks, the less the media will be able to smear her.

New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date
McCain
Obama

09/15/2008
42%
55%

08/04/2008
32%
52%

06/30/2008
29%
60%

05/28/2008
33%
52%

04/29/2008
35%
52%

03/11/2008
38%
51%

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:55 PM

Rasmussen 09/15 - 09/15 500 LV 55 42 Obama +13
Siena 09/08 - 09/10 626 LV 46 41 Obama +5

The Sienna is a larger sample...but not large enough to explain the discrepancy.

Nbadan

09-16-2008, 06:55 PM

He's losing by 14 points even in your poll.....I wish McSame would dump cash into NY....considering he doesn't have a prayer....

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:57 PM

BTW...here's a list to the most accurate pollsters in the Primaries...or so they say :lol

Since the site is owned by the pollster ranked as #1 I take it with a grain of salt...nonthless Rasmussen was off by a pretty substantial amount. I don't think it's that they are completely off, so much as they are slow to react.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/02/13/2008-pollster-report-card-updated-to-include-potomac-primaries/

whottt

09-16-2008, 06:57 PM

He's losing by 14 points even in your poll.....I wish McSame would dump cash into NY....considering he doesn't have a prayer....

Dump cash hell...raise cash.

And you guys are ignoring 2 other polls.

whottt

09-16-2008, 07:01 PM

VASpurfan this is what I wanted to post earlier...and to the point I was making to Dan:

From Wiki:

Manhattan

minority in the borough, only constituting approximately 12% of the electorate. Registered Republicans are more than 20% of the electorate only in the neighborhoods of Upper East Side and the Financial District. The Democrats hold 66.1% of those registered in a party. 21.9% of the voters declined to state their political affiliation.[77]

Local party platforms center on affordable housing, education and economic development. Controversial political issues in Manhattan include development, noise, and the cost of housing.

Manhattan is divided between four congressional districts, all of which are represented by Democrats.

Charles Rangel represents the 15th district in Upper Manhattan, which incorporates Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood and parts of the Upper West Side.
Jerrold Nadler represents the 8th district, based on the West Side which covers most of the Upper West Side, Hell's Kitchen, Chelsea, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Tribeca and Battery Park City, as well as some sections of Southwest Brooklyn.
Carolyn Maloney represents the 14th district, the so-called "Silk Stocking" district which was the political base for Teddy Roosevelt and John Lindsay. It covers most of the Upper East Side, Yorkville, Gramercy Park, the East Village, Roosevelt Island and most of the Lower East Side, as well as portions of western Queens.
Nydia Velazquez of the Brooklyn-Queens based 12th district, represents a few heavily Puerto Rican sections of the Lower East Side.
No Republican has won the presidential election in Manhattan since 1924, when Calvin Coolidge won a plurality of the New York County vote over Democrat John W. Davis, 41.20%–39.55%. Warren G. Harding was the most recent Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the Manhattan vote, with 59.22% of the 1920 vote.[78] In the 2004 presidential election, Democrat John Kerry received 82.1% of the vote in Manhattan and Republican George W. Bush received 16.7%.[79] The borough is the most important source of funding for presidential campaigns in the United States; in 2004, it was home to six of the top seven zip codes in the nation for political contributions.[80] The top ZIP code, 10021 on the Upper East Side, generated the most money for the United States presidential election for all presidential candidates, including both Kerry and Bush during the 2004 election.[81]