How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Findog]

Findog doesn't know what a race is.

Fine, you're prejudiced, not a racist.

[Findog]

Are you sure? Did you read the entire thing?

Yes, I did. Barack Obama's middle name has no relevance to what you just wrote.

[whottt]

"Cheney is a lawyer."

That was be design. Worked too.



"Rush said vote for Obama."

He did.




"16 million registered voters in Pennsylvania"

Well I read an article that said there was 8 million new voters in a state with 8 million registered voters...what would you have concluded from that article?

Don't get arroagant just because you read the most recent article.




"Pravda"

All in less than one day.

Sigh...it was the title of the article that was relevant.

You aren't near as smart as you think you are here...




The record speaks for itself here.

Beno has balls :lmao

[whottt]

Yes, I did. Barack Obama's middle name has no relevance to what you just wrote.



I think you need to read it again.

[whottt]

Fine, you're prejudiced, not a racist.



So are you...you're prejudiced against McCain and Palin.


Idiot.

[whottt]

Did you read it again btw? Third times the charm.

[ChumpDumper]

That was be design. Worked too.You lie by design.




He did.Except he didn't.




Well I read an article that said there was 8 million new voters in a state with 8 million registered voters...what would you have concluded from that article?

Don't get arroagant just because you read the most recent article.I'm arrogant because I can read and I don't have to lie "by design."




Sigh...it was the title of the article that was relevant.Except it was directly contradicted by the article. Lying by design again.


You aren't near as smart as you think you are here...Your problem is you think I care about my internets reputation as you do. I'm simply right on these little points of fact, and it really pisses you off. So much that you are compelled to lie and try to change the subject to basketball.

It's been so much fun watching you melt down over and over again.

[Findog]

So are you...you're prejudiced against McCain and Palin.


Idiot.

I don't agree with their policies. Anything else is irrelevant. I don't vote based on ephemeral stuff.

[Findog]

Did you read it again btw? Third times the charm.

I'll just state it a third time for charm: Barack Obama's middle name had nothing to do with your little screed.

[timvp]

What's sad is that whottt and ChumpDumper will end their feud five seconds after a Rockets fan posts a Scola update.

[JoeChalupa]

Findog doesn't know what a race is.

All I know is that McCain is going to lose this race if she doesn't win it for him.

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3153/2910156903_1639377b6a_o.png

More great polling for Obama but who's surprised? Only bad number is in MN where SUSA shows McCain with a lead in MN.

However, if we take into consideration the Whottt effect, McCain is actually leading in every one of these polls by +20.

[Yonivore]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3153/2910156903_1639377b6a_o.png

More great polling for Obama but who's surprised? Only bad number is in MN where SUSA shows McCain with a lead in MN.

However, if we take into consideration the Whottt effect, McCain is actually leading in every one of these polls by +20.
I'll be interested to see what your polls do over the next couple of days.

[ChumpDumper]

You really think Palin's performance is going to put McCain over the top now?

[MannyIsGod]

I'll be interested to see what your polls do over the next couple of days.

Why? You've yet to give them credit. All of a sudden if they show a McCain shift you'll give them credit?

[Yonivore]

Why? You've yet to give them credit. All of a sudden if they show a McCain shift you'll give them credit?
You're right. That's why I called them "your" polls...

And, no, I won't give them credit. Zogby has discredited polling in perpetuity.

[MannyIsGod]

You're right. That's why I called them "your" polls...

And, no, I won't give them credit. Zogby has discredited polling in perpetuity.


K

So just to be sure you're not interested then, right?

[ChumpDumper]

I'll be interested to see what your polls do over the next couple of days.


You're right. That's why I called them "your" polls...

And, no, I won't give them credit. Zogby has discredited polling in perpetuity.So you are interested in the polls that have been discredited in perpetuity.

I think you ran out of sides of your mouth to talk out of and it's now coming straight out your ass.

[SnakeBoy]

You really think Palin's performance is going to put McCain over the top now?

Palin's performance was a home run. She knocked it out of the park....for Sarah Palin.

Now she can spend the next 4 years polishing her message, developing her platform, and getting the needed experience/knowledge to make a run at it in 2012.

McCain is toast.

[ElNono]

So, if Palin was debating last night, who was watching over Russia?

[Shastafarian]

Findog doesn't know what a race is.


And before you pull the race card....I'm not voting for anyone named Adolph either...and I'm German. So :fu

Apparently you don't either.

[florige]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3153/2910156903_1639377b6a_o.png

More great polling for Obama but who's surprised? Only bad number is in MN where SUSA shows McCain with a lead in MN.

However, if we take into consideration the Whottt effect, McCain is actually leading in every one of these polls by +20.



Dammit how is he behind now in Minnesota....:bang
Sorry I want a landslide....:lol

[MannyIsGod]

McCain's been spending a ton of money there so thats how. Thats fine though, cause he basically needs to do that very thing in about 4 other states (PA,VA,CO,IN) and he can't do it everywhere. Time to start watching the senate and house seats. I'm not too sure I want the dems with 60 seats in congress - in fact I'm almost sure I don't - so hopefully the GOP can get their act together in SOME manner.

[whottt]

You lie by design.

In that case yep...I wanted to see how knowledgable the person I was arguing with was on that particular subject, especially since I was at a disadvantage...I do that particular move all the time when I don't automatically hold the upperhand in an argument Chump. It's one of the ways I know if someone knows what the fuck they are talking about. In this case I was arguing constitutional law with a lawyer...and needed to know if I was being bullshitted.




Except he didn't.


Yeah he did.



I'm arrogant because I can read and I don't have to lie "by design."



Except it was directly contradicted by the article. Lying by design again.

It was the headline of the article...that was not my headline, that was the headline of the article.

They did the exact same thing...which is why I said "simple terminology" when I posted the article and used that article as an example.






Your problem is you think I care about my internets reputation as you do. I'm simply right on these little points of fact, and it really pisses you off. So much that you are compelled to lie and try to change the subject to basketball.

It's been so much fun watching you melt down over and over again.

I have no problem Chump, except for the inordinate number of idiots I find myself arguing with...


You're right about Cheney, wrong about Rush, and you competely whiff on the purpose behind that article. That wasn't my headline...that was theirs.

[ChumpDumper]

So you want to equate your and Palin's distortion of the facts to that of Pravda.

Brilliant.

Don't let me stop you.

[whottt]

What's sad is that whottt and ChumpDumper will end their feud five seconds after a Rockets fan posts a Scola update.



To tell you the truth I gained a tremendous amount respect for the person that Chump is after meeting him...it's been hard for me to argue with him since then...thing is I've tried and he's a been a pussy about it himself...good to see him back in all his Chumpness...

[ChumpDumper]

Oh and let me know when Rush told his listeners to vote for Obama as a strategy for disrupting the primaries.

I'm sure you can tell me when it was.

[whottt]

So you want to equate your and Palin's distortion of the facts to that of Pravda.


As long as you understand the point behind the article....the headline and the body of the article was just an example.


Besides...I guarnatee you I can find and example of the Russians flying over Alaskan airspace at some point, which would render even the anal interpretation of the statement true.




Brilliant.

Don't let me stop you.

You don't have to worry about that...

[whottt]

Oh and let me know when Rush told his listeners to vote for Obama as a strategy for disrupting the primaries.

I'm sure you can tell me when it was.

Eh if it wasn't Rush it was Hannity, already said it one of them was doing it...I get them confused, and I don't listen to either of them enough to know the exact dates. It was during the primaries.

[ChumpDumper]

As long as you understand the point behind the article....the headline and the body of the article was just an example.


Besides...I guarnatee you I can find and example of the Russians flying over Alaskan airspace at some point, which would render even the anal interpretation of the statement true.Please do that -- and let me know what Palin's responsibilities were in that situation.





You don't have to worry about that...I know that your heart will go on.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

[whottt]

I don't agree with their policies. Anything else is irrelevant. I don't vote based on ephemeral stuff.


Prejudice is prejudice...a name is no different then a policy especially since policies at this state are just words.

People are prejudiced against Republicans or Democrats, old people or young people...


There's no such thing as prejudice or racism in a Presidential Election...racism would have been not allowing him to run...

American citizens have a right to disciminate over anything, in their voting preferences. Anything...it is their right as American citizens to cast their vote or not for anyone they choose...anything and everything is fair game from bias to favor in an election. Looks, name, skin color, age, youth, voice inflection, intellience, gender, back ground, state of origin, region of origin, accent, their past, their education, politics, affiliations, associations, party affiliation, hair color, eye color, tit size...name....religious beliefs. Etc.

Anything.

It's all prejudice...and totally acceptable, since becoming President is not a right...but a privilege.



:lmao why do you think Dukakis got his ass kicked so bad? :lol...no one wanted to elect some dude whose name sounded so much like a turd...would have been a national disgrace.


Hold on one second...I need to go take a Dukakis. :lol

[whottt]

Please do that -- and let me know what Palin's responsibilities were in that situation.


It's already been gone over..go read the thread again. You are being stupid now...it was well explained in that thread.

[ChumpDumper]

She's briefed after it's over?

That's it?

[whottt]

No dude...but under certain circumstance she would be the one in command and of course they go over that...that is such an essential state to our National defense...hint, it's right next to Russia.

[ChumpDumper]

No dude...The what else happens?


but under certain circumstance she would be the one in command and of course they go over that...that is such an essential state to our National defense...hint, it's right next to Russia.Which circumstances?

[whottt]

It's in the thread.

[MannyIsGod]

It's in the thread.

Its actually not. You lose track of threads like you lose track of airspace.

[florige]

Prejudice is prejudice...a name is no different then a policy especially since policies at this state are just words.

People are prejudiced against Republicans or Democrats, old people or young people...


There's no such thing as prejudice or racism in a Presidential Election...racism would have been not allowing him to run...

American citizens have a right to disciminate over anything, in their voting preferences. Anything...it is their right as American citizens to cast their vote or not for anyone they choose...anything and everything is fair game from bias to favor in an election. Looks, name, skin color, age, youth, voice inflection, intellience, gender, back ground, state of origin, region of origin, accent, their past, their education, politics, affiliations, associations, party affiliation, hair color, eye color, tit size...name....religious beliefs. Etc.

Anything.

It's all prejudice...and totally acceptable, since becoming President is not a right...but a privilege.



:lmao why do you think Dukakis got his ass kicked so bad? :lol...no one wanted to elect some dude whose name sounded so much like a turd...would have been a national disgrace.


Hold on one second...I need to go take a Dukakis. :lol




I always thought it was because he was so freakin short to be totally honest with you.

[florige]

McCain's been spending a ton of money there so thats how. Thats fine though, cause he basically needs to do that very thing in about 4 other states (PA,VA,CO,IN) and he can't do it everywhere. Time to start watching the senate and house seats. I'm not too sure I want the dems with 60 seats in congress - in fact I'm almost sure I don't - so hopefully the GOP can get their act together in SOME manner.


Out if those four you mentioned which ones are the most critical for Obama to carry in your opinion? Probably PA and CO I'm thinking. I just read on Taggert political wire that every one of McCain's ad's are now going negative. Now the shit is going to hit the fan. I'm just glad that Obama has these pretty sizable leads now. Another thing too is the Obama campaign is staying on the offensive as well. Man the 4th can get here quick enough.

[MannyIsGod]

Out if those four you mentioned which ones are the most critical for Obama to carry in your opinion? Probably PA and CO I'm thinking. I just read on Taggert political wire that every one of McCain's ad's are now going negative. Now the shit is going to hit the fan. I'm just glad that Obama has these pretty sizable leads now. Another thing too is the Obama campaign is staying on the offensive as well. Man the 4th can get here quick enough.

I'm not worried about McCain going negative. Dem 527s have a lot of bullets to fire too, and if McCain wants to take his gloves off completely so be it. Its just another sign of desperation.

As for which of those states McCain needs to win, I love my answer because it explains just how dire it is for McCain.

Which does he need to win? All of them.

[MannyIsGod]

North Carolina voter registration trend [voters per week]:

8/30/2008 7,834
9/6/2008 10,077
9/13/2008 16,154
9/20/2008 20,880
9/27/2008 27,237
10/4/2008 31,114

This week:
Dem 16,067
Ind. 8,844
GOP 5,978
Lib 225

Total 31,114

Black voters were 34% of registrations this week. They make up 22% of all registered voters.

Overall in 2008:

+223,964 dem, +157,137 ind, +39,505 rep

[MannyIsGod]

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AS912_MAP_NS_20081002192417.gif

[MannyIsGod]

Time for a thread reboot.

I'm curious as to what states people view as the real battlegrounds today? I've got my idea but I'm wonder what others view as the true toss ups right now.

[Bartleby]

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio.

[whottt]

Time for a thread reboot.

I'm curious as to what states people view as the real battlegrounds today? I've got my idea but I'm wonder what others view as the true toss ups right now.

Any blue state where Obama faired poorly in the Primaries. I know you guys think people will blindly just transfer their enthusiasm to a candidate they didn't support...but it doesnt' work that way. Even if they don't change parties, even if their second choice isn't from a different party(as it usually is) they won't have the same motivation to go out and vote for a candidate they didn't support the first time around.


This is a problem for McCain as well...but it's the #1 area where Palin is helping...and it's the #1 area where Biden isn't helping Obama.



BTW, I do think Michigan is still in play :lmao every caller I've heard from Michigan on a radio or tv station reeks of white guilt. That's the #1 state where the race card is having an impact in the polls IMO.

[Findog]

Dammit how is he behind now in Minnesota....:bang
Sorry I want a landslide....:lol

The internals of that poll are wacky. That poll is an outlier. Minnesota is not going red. They were the only state that resisted Reagan in 84. McCain has spent a lot of money to be competitive in Minnesota. His money would've been better spent shoring up Florida.

[Shastafarian]

Any blue state where Obama faired poorly in the Primaries. I know you guys think people will blindly just transfer their enthusiasm to a candidate they didn't support...but it doesnt' work that way. Even if they don't change parties, even if their second choice isn't from a different party(as it usually is) they won't have the same motivation to go out and vote for a candidate they didn't support the first time around.


You still think New York is a battleground state? Are you really that stupid?

[Findog]

You still think New York is a battleground state? Are you really that stupid?

Look at my sig...he says McCain will get more votes than Bush in 2004, and Obama will receive less than Kerry. If McCain wins, it's by the skin of his teeth.

With a steady 5-7 point lead in the polls, at certain point the RNC will shift money to congressional races.

The GOP should write off the presidential race and try to avoid a 60 seat Democratic Senate.

[whottt]

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AS912_MAP_NS_20081002192417.gif



Congressional approval rating:



RCP Average 09/19 - 09/30 17.8 75.6 -57.8
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 18 77 -59
GW/Battleground 09/21 - 09/25 17 77 -60
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 17 73 -56
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 15 73 -58
CNN/OpinionResearch 09/19 - 09/21 22 78 -56


Those registrations by party ID don't mean near as much as you guys think they do.

Sin,

Whottt, a registered Democrat.

[Shastafarian]

Congressional approval rating:



RCP Average 09/19 - 09/30 17.8 75.6 -57.8
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 18 77 -59
GW/Battleground 09/21 - 09/25 17 77 -60
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 17 73 -56
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 15 73 -58
CNN/OpinionResearch 09/19 - 09/21 22 78 -56


Those registrations by party ID don't mean near as much as you guys think they do.

Sin,

Whottt, a registered idiot.

fixed it.

[Findog]

Congressional approval rating:



RCP Average 09/19 - 09/30 17.8 75.6 -57.8
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 18 77 -59
GW/Battleground 09/21 - 09/25 17 77 -60
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 17 73 -56
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 15 73 -58
CNN/OpinionResearch 09/19 - 09/21 22 78 -56


Those registrations by party ID don't mean near as much as you guys think they do.

Sin,

Whottt, a registered Democrat.


Obama enjoys the support of like 91% of registered Democrats. You being in the nine percent group is reflected in the polls.

[whottt]

Hey Manny...where did you get that link to North Carolina trends, and do they have other states?

That is a revelatory bit of info there....

[whottt]

Obama enjoys the support of like 91% of registered Democrats. You being in the nine percent group is reflected in the polls.



I don't do polls...

[Findog]

I don't do polls...

You did right after the RNC and at the height of Palin mania. You posted poll updates everyday. Why did you stop doing that? :lol

[Shastafarian]

You did right after the RNC and at the height of Palin mania. You posted poll updates everyday. Why did you stop doing that? :lol

Obviously because the Liberal Media took hold and started fucking with the internals. God...why are you some dumb Findog lib?

[MannyIsGod]

Look at my sig...he says McCain will get more votes than Bush in 2004, and Obama will receive less than Kerry. If McCain wins, it's by the skin of his teeth.

With a steady 5-7 point lead in the polls, at certain point the RNC will shift money to congressional races.

The GOP should write off the presidential race and try to avoid a 60 seat Democratic Senate.

I completely agree.

[MannyIsGod]

Those registrations by party ID don't mean near as much as you guys think they do.

Sin,

Whottt, a registered Democrat.

And how much do I think they mean?

[Findog]

I completely agree.

And I would be fine with that, we need some balance in government. I don't want the Democrats to have a veto-proof majority. It's not good for democracy.

The thing that would make me happiest is on November 5th when President-Elect Obama tells Joe Lieberman to go fuck himself and caucus with the GOP.

[MannyIsGod]

Hey Manny...where did you get that link to North Carolina trends, and do they have other states?

That is a revelatory bit of info there....

Sadly I got it off a forum. Its not an official bit of info, but I trust the source a great deal so I figured I would repost it here.

[MannyIsGod]

And I would be fine with that, we need some balance in government. I don't want the Democrats to have a veto-proof majority. It's not good for democracy.

Yeah, I've said as much. I don't want the GOP to lose the fillibuster.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh and I believe that MN poll. MN is the only state where McCain has outspent Obama. However, now that MI is out of play, Obama can shift some more money there.

[Findog]

Oh and I believe that MN poll. MN is the only state where McCain has outspent Obama. However, now that MI is out of play, Obama can shift some more money there.

The internals of that poll are bullshit. Minnesota is not going for McCain.

Here's how we know it's pure crap:

Age 65+:

Obama: 52%
McCain: 42%

So you want to start by telling me that Obama is winning seniors, McCain's BEST constituency across the entire country in every single state, by 10%? And yet Obama's still losing Minnesota?

This isn't a "slight" outlier! It's flat bull-shit!

Obama would be blowing McCain out of the water if he were leading seniors by 10%!

Take a look at the Connecticut 9/24/- 9/25 SUSA poll:

Obama support by age demographic:

58% of 18-34
55% of 35-49
51% of 50-64
49% of 65+

Like everywhere, the older the voter, the more they favor McCain!

McCain support Demographic:

34% of 8-34
38% of 35-49
39% of 50-64
42% of 65+

McCain's support goes UP with age, just as it does in every other state!

Here's Virginia:
18-34: 38%
35-49: 45%
50-64: 48%
65+: 49%

Yet here we have the MN Poll:

Obama Support:
47% of 8-34 ( O: +4%)
39% of 35-49 ( O: -16%)
49% of 50-64 ( O: +5%)
52% of 65+ ( O: +10%)

Anybody who believes Obama is winning every demographic except 35-49 year olds and yet is losing the state, or that his support goes UP with age after 50+ is NUTS. That just flat goes against every other poll in every other state in the union.

We KNOW McCain's support goes up in every poll with age! He's doing best with seniors everywhere. So, this has to be just a crappy poll. That's all.

Since we have lots of other polls showing a bigger Obama lead, we know it's pure crap! They also said they didn't survey enough minorities because they couldn't get enough respondents. No doubt McCain is competitive in Minnesota because of the convention and he's spent enough money there.

If Obama wanted to win South Dakota, he probably could by spending enough money, but would it be a wise use of money? No, there are only 3 evs to be had.

This outlier poll is probably a good thing, it will prompt Obama to spend a little more money to shore up his support there than neglect it or take it for granted.

[MannyIsGod]

Obama's been pretty close with seniors for awhile now. But anyway, the point is that you're viewing the poll too damn specifically. Everyone sees that to show that McCain is winning the state. What it actually shows is that McCain is in a statistical tie in MN with Barak. A lot of other polls have shown this exact same thing.

[exstatic]

The internals of that poll are wacky. That poll is an outlier. Minnesota is not going red. They were the only state that resisted Reagan in 84. McCain has spent a lot of money to be competitive in Minnesota. His money would've been better spent shoring up Florida.

His VP pick would have been better spent on Tim Pawlenty. Picking an unvetted unknown from a 3 EC vote state was beyond stupid.

[whottt]

:lol @ internals mattering now.

[Colombiano972]

I couldn't find a link in the 538 thread, and this HAS to be an outlier, but HOLY FUCKING SHIT:

Fox News
Texas - Pres.
Obama 45
McCain 46

:lol:lol:lol

That must be my whole neighborhood. BTW just put up my Obama sign yesterday........

[whottt]

And how much do I think they mean?

Enough to think Party ID weight is justified in recent polls.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol @ internals mattering now.

Internals always matter. I"ve asked you many times to point out the ones you think are flawed and you never do.

[MannyIsGod]

Enough to think Party ID weight is justified in recent polls.

In which polls? You sure do make a lot of general statements full of bullshit. Thats your style, string one bland red herring up to another one. You are too lazy to pick apart the polls so you just make general statements and try to paint everything with a broad brush.

Lazy ass whottt.

[whottt]

Well North Carolina I think is still going to go Red...that said, they do have a huge African American Population and I believe Wachovia or WaMu or something like that was based out of North Carolina...it's probably a legitimate problem area.

That said...that is one of the most racist states in the Nation...it's going to be tough for Obama to pull out a win there.

[Findog]

State polls don't matter at all if Obama maintains a 5-7 point lead in the polls. If his lead dips below 4.5 points, then we can start worrying about state polls again. A good national tracking poll lifts state boats, so to speak.

[exstatic]

:lol:lol:lol

That must be my whole neighborhood. BTW just put up my Obama sign yesterday........

I work in far north SA, and drive through this neighborhood every day as a shortcut. This is North of Bitters. I've not seen one McCain yard sign on a mile or mile and a half drive, but probably 30-35 Obama signs.

[Findog]

His VP pick would have been better spent on Tim Pawlenty. Picking an unvetted unknown from a 3 EC vote state was beyond stupid.

Yeah, if he needed a pro-life lady so bad, he should've taken Kay Bailey or Elizabeth Dole. They wouldn't have killed his experience argument against Obama either.

[whottt]

Internals always matter. I"ve asked you many times to point out the ones you think are flawed and you never do.

Actually I've posted countless articles, including one that pointed out the flaws in the internals of Gallup, you then said that wasn't good enough.

[Findog]

I work in far north SA, and drive through this neighborhood every day as a shortcut. This is North of Bitters. I've not seen one McCain yard sign on a mile or mile and a half drive, but probably 30-35 Obama signs.

I guess it just depends where you live. I live in West Fort Worth, and in my neighborhood, I haven't seen one Obama sign, but I have seen several McCain-Palin signs...of course, they didn't come out until the last 2 weeks. Before that, I never saw a McCain sign. She has fired up the GOP base, that's for sure. That's about all she's done.

[whottt]

Palin will be forgotten about by November

Or some shit like that...

[MannyIsGod]

Actually I've posted countless articles, including one that pointed out the flaws in the internals of Gallup, you then said that wasn't good enough.

Of course thats not enough. Thats a fucking national tracker. There are dozens of state by state polls that I think are important, not a fucking national tracker. And what about the other national trackers whottt?

When you start saying they're all fucked up you should prove it.

:lol

All Mexican food sucks because I once had a taco that was bad - Whottt

[whottt]

Obama supporters vandalize McCain signs and cars with bumper stickers on them. That's why you don't see them.

[MannyIsGod]

Obama supporters vandalize McCain signs and cars with bumper stickers on them. That's why you don't see them.

:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

In 31 days reality is going to reach up and slap the fuck out of Whottt. Thats my not so bold prediction.

[Findog]

In 31 days reality is going to reach up and slap the fuck out of Whottt. Thats my not so bold prediction.

The race will probably narrow a little bit, but I don't know what McCain can do at this point. Going completely negative in October is a sign of desperation, voters are less persuadable the closer you get to election day.

[ChumpDumper]

Obama supporters vandalize McCain signs and cars with bumper stickers on them. That's why you don't see them.
my research

This is rich, especially for Texas.

[Findog]

that palin is the most-talked-about member of the GOP ticket is Not a good sign for McCain

And she's not talked about for good reasons. If McCain were 10 years younger, she wouldn't be so much of an issue. whottt thinks she's a rock star when she is in reality a niche rock star. She's not Coldplay, she's The Shins.

[whottt]

Obama supporters are militant that's why this is happening...

Just like where I work at...McCain supporters only speak in hushed tones.


You know why?


My boss, who incidentally is from Victoria, wears an Obama shirt to work a few times per week.(I tell you, these fuckers have infiltrated Austin, Viictorians I mean)

The other two bosses are African American and are also Obama supporters.

The chick boss I think kinda likes me because she always gives me cush jobs and makes sure I get something to eat at work. I have been hesitant to be vocal about my support for McCain because she is the only one that actually gives me decent assignments.

If you say you are a McCain supporter the impression is you will get the shittiest jobs at the place...


I've started to be more vocal about my support for McCain as of last night just to see what's going to happen...

I had an open and lengthy political discussion with an Obama supporter who is one of my better friends at that place, about why I am supporting McCain,...right there out in the open, ears perked, eyebrows raised...we'll see what happens.

[ChumpDumper]

Never pass up the opportunity to feel oppressed, whottt.

[whottt]

This is rich, especially for Texas.

Austin is the most liberal city in the state. It's different here than anywhere else...but of course you knew that already and deliberately didn't mention it.

[Shastafarian]

The chick boss I think kinda likes me because she always gives me cush jobs and makes sure I get something to eat at work.

If anyone has seen the final episode of season 4 and the first episode of season 5 of The Office they'd be laughing as hard as I am right now.


Maybe she thinks you're mentally challenged...

[whottt]

Never pass up the opportunity to feel oppressed, whottt.


Dude you have no idea how shitty some of the jobs here are...


On top of that it's UT and there are several hundred UT students that work here.


The rest of them are retirees, who incidentally between them, are hte people that are going to be working just about every election in the city. Including a few election judges...that's how I got employment working in the upcoming elections.

[ChumpDumper]

Dude you have no idea how shitty some of the jobs here are...And you are forced to be employed there.

We understand.

[whottt]

And you are forced to be employed there.


Well actually I kinda am right now. My schedule is locked in.




We understand.

Said the collective mind...

[ChumpDumper]

Well actually I kinda am right now. My schedule is locked in.Help! Help! I'm being oppressed!


Said the collective mind... It's a royal "we."

[whottt]

Help! Help! I'm being oppressed!

Dude it is oppressive...say the wrong thing and you'll spend 7 hours smelling elephant shit with no forewarning. I'm not kidding.

[ChumpDumper]

Dude it is oppressive...say the wrong thing and you'll spend 7 hours smelling elephant shit with no forewarning. I'm not kidding.So get another job, dumbass.

[Findog]

Dude it is oppressive...say the wrong thing and you'll spend 7 hours smelling elephant shit with no forewarning. I'm not kidding.

Do you work at the zoo?

[whottt]

Do you work at the zoo?


No...but the circus is there a few times per year.

[MannyIsGod]

This is how I see the race breaking down right now:

Safe for Obama:

WA 11
OR 7
CA 55
NM 5
IA 7
IL 21
WI 10
MI 17
NY 31
ME 4
MA 12
RI 4
CT 7
NJ 15
DE 3
MD 10
DC 3
HI 4

Safe for McCain

ID 4
MT 3
WY 3
UT 5
AZ 10
AK 3
TX 34
KS 6
OK 7
NE 5
SD 3
ND 3
AR 6
LA 9
MS 6
AL 9
GA 15
SC 8
TN 11
KY 8
WV 5

Obama 229
McCain 163

I'm being extremely generous not giving PA to Obama as of right now, but I'll digress

That leaves these states

PA 21
NV 5
CO 9
MN 10
IN 11
OH 20
VA 13
NC 15
FL 27
NH 4

For a total of 146 EVs

Trending with McCain in the lead

MO, IN

I think these are the 2 most likely states that McCain is to carry out of the BG states. However, he's going to have to spend money here and thats a problem for him. Also, he has virtually NO ground game in IN and because of that Obama has a huge advantage there. However, for arguments sake I'm gonig to say McCain still has the overall advantadge here due to demographics. If Obama is winning IN he's likely also won OH and the election is over.

Trending with Obama in the lead

PA, MN, NH, CO

These are all states Obama has a good advantadge in. PA is likely not even much of a tossup at this point, and MN is really more likely to go Blue than Red base don history and Demographics. NH is a tough one to get a handle on, but its only four EVs and not THAT important in the grand scheme of things.

If we add in those EVs to each side this is what we come up with:

Obama - 273
McCain - 185

At this point Obama already has 270 and I'm not pushing anything nearly outlandish here.

FL, OH, NC, VA, NV must ALL go to McCain and McCain must grab something like NH or MN as well in order to win or force a tie.

Its a really really daunting task for McCain with limited resources right now.

[whottt]

So get another job, dumbass.



It's not an option at this point, asshat.


Besides, I like working there when there isn't rampant voter intimidation by Obama supporters.

[MannyIsGod]

If anyone has seen the final episode of season 4 and the first episode of season 5 of The Office they'd be laughing as hard as I am right now.


Maybe she thinks you're mentally challenged...

:lmao

"math is hard"

"you've had a big day!"

[Shastafarian]

:lmao

"math is hard"

"you've had a big day!"

I can just see whottt having a huge grin on his face whenever this Holly-like woman is nice to him. I'm just gonna call whottt Kevin from now on.

[whottt]

that palin is the most-talked-about member of the GOP ticket is Not a good sign for McCain


She's the most talked about member of either ticket....period.

[ChumpDumper]

It's not an option at this point, asshat.Sure it is.

http://www.statesman.com/hotjobs/content/hotjobs/



Besides, I like working there when there isn't rampant voter intimidation by Obama supporters.Don't try to kid anybody. That's your favorite part.

[MannyIsGod]

39 new state polls released in the first three days of October have given Barack Obama his first lead over the magic number of 270 since mid-July. Minnesota (10 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV) both moved from toss-up to Obama, giving him 273 electoral votes to McCain’s 163, with 102 votes remaining as a toss-up. If the election were held today, Obama would win every state John Kerry won in 2004, while adding New Mexico (5 EV), Iowa (7 EV), and Colorado (9 EV) to his coalition.

http://www.rove.com/election

[whottt]

The polls are still whack. One poll shows McCain leading in Minn by 1, the next one shows Obama up by 18...

Ridiculous to take them that seriously. And BTW, Rasmussen ramped up their weights in favor of the Democrats as well.

[Buddy Holly]

She's the most talked about member of either ticket....period.

So would a turtle if it was picked out of thin air to run for VP six weeks ago.

[Yonivore]

So would a turtle if it was picked out of thin air to run for VP six weeks ago.
Being Governor of Alaska isn't exactly thin air. Now, Obama on the other hand...he's a product of thin air. Hell, the Clintons didn't even see him coming.

[TomBrady]

Being Governor of Alaska isn't exactly thin air. Now, Obama on the other hand...he's a product of thin air. Hell, the Clintons didn't even see him coming.

Apparently neither did McCain.

[MannyIsGod]

The polls are still whack. One poll shows McCain leading in Minn by 1, the next one shows Obama up by 18...

Ridiculous to take them that seriously. And BTW, Rasmussen ramped up their weights in favor of the Democrats as well.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by very large margins right now. Its just the way things are. But I don't care if you take the polls seriously or not. I've seen the internals of both those MN polls and they both have problems with them which is why you got those results. That doesn't mean they don't have valuable information within them.

Anyway, anytime you want to provide proof on why a poll is off feel free to do so and I'll listen. Otherwise I'm done trying to convince you that of they're usefullness.

[smeagol]

Good analysis Manny :tu

[whottt]

I've seen the internals of both those MN polls and they both have problems with them which is why you got those results.

Which would seem to indicate I'm right not to accept them. Are we saying that even the holy grail of polls Survery USA can be off?



That doesn't mean they don't have valuable information within them.

Doesn't mean they're accurate either though.





Anyway, anytime you want to provide proof on why a poll is off feel free to do so and I'll listen. Otherwise I'm done trying to convince you that of they're usefullness.


We've gone round and round on it...I'll just again repeat that I myself am a registered Democrat and leave it at that.


Edit: Plus I'll point out that the reason the Republicans are getting the lionshare of the blame for the Economic Crisis is as much due to the fact that the pollsters themselves are making that assumption as it is an actual trend.


It's a mistake to compare this to any other election...there hasn't been one like it before.

[ElNono]

It's a mistake to compare this to any other election...there hasn't been one like it before.

because? links? facts?

[florige]

Oh man I am REALLY loving this.......


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html


Hopefully tommorow he can slam the door shut.

[ElNono]

Oh man I am REALLY loving this.......

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html

Hopefully tommorow he can slam the door shut.

From there:

More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.

"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.

[MannyIsGod]

When five thirty eight does their daily update Ill link the image but I just wanted to post that 2 polls came out today showing Obama with a double digit lead in Virginia. Thats pretty damn insane. Polls have also come out that show sizeable leads in OH, NC, and NH all key battle ground states.

The polls today are looking pretty damn exciting for Obama supporters.

[whottt]

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6392

More Poll Posting - Obama May Be In Real Trouble If Polls Weight Samples Wrong
Published by AJStrata at 11:43 am under 2008 Elections, All General Discussions

With Barack Obama pulling ahead in the polls, it seems a lot of us on the right are concerned about the validity of the message we are seeing. I am still of the opinion something is wrong with the polls and have shown why record crowd levels at Palin events, record viewership of the Biden-Palin debate (this is due to Biden???) and record RNC donation levels all paint a very different picture than a runaway race for Obama-Biden.

I did find one VERY interesting set of data on polls and the electorate which confirms my suspicion. But first I want to send a “shout out” to DJ Drummon and his correct statement about today’s less than professional polls:

And I have to warn you that the polls will not reflect an immediate valid effect - if they show a sudden jump for either side it is far more likely to mean that the polls have - once again - changed the party affiliation weights, a practice as dishonest as putting one foot on the floor while you weigh yourself. The reason is because while people do change their minds, historically it has always been a few people at a time and in small steps. One proof of that is that as popular as Presidents Reagan and Clinton were, neither saw a major shift in party identification during his Administration.

Emphasis mine. Note that the two post popular GOP and Democrat Presidents of modern times did not see large changes in party affiliation. And I also want to note Party Affiliation is a poor indicator of policy preferences. And now we get to some intriguing data from The Wall Street Journal. The story is all about the large pool of undecided voters, but it includes the following graph of party affiliation vs policy preferences (Liberal vs. Conservative)

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AS969_UNDECI_NS_20081005191231.gif

Note the D-R-I split on “all voters” is 43-36-28. Most polls are weighting their sample by party affiliation, not policy preference. With the Democrat Presidential Primary drawing huge crowds and lots of GOP cross-overs to fight off Obama I would not want to put my reputation on party ID being the definitive weighting factor.

Look at the policy preference break down of Lib-Con-Mod, it is split 23-37-36 - almost the REVERSE of the party ID break down. That means if you re-run the polls using policy preference as the weighting factor you could see the polls almost flip 180°! Democrats are up by 7%, but Cons are up by 14% - twice the advantage!

Even more interesting is the undecided poll. In the Party ID view undecideds are split equally between Dem-Rep-Ind at 28-26-43. This would lead one to allocate undecideds or leaners basically down the middle between Obama and McCain since the difference left and right is a statistically insignificant 2%.

But in the policy world view the picture is dramatically different. The Lib-Con-Mod mix is heavily tilted away from Obama’s base with 18-32-47. Here we see very little opportunity for Obama to take the undecided voters. Now the imbalance is 2:1 in favor of McCain, which holds a statistically huge 14% advantage.

I have said all year this was a vote against partisanship. This year the nation would vote on policy, not party affiliation. Hyper partisans from each party are to blame for the current mood of the country. If I am right and these polls have been weighted using the wrong driver (historically it has been party driven) then Obama is not in the lead and has no hope of catching up. Go back to what DJ Drummond pointed out about Clinton and Reagan, they won on policy positions not party ID. Normally I don’t think there is such a schism between the two, but this year there probably is.

I would like to see some pollsters like Rasmussen run a result that had policy position the driving weighting factor, not party ID. I would like to see those results as the other possible outcome, the other end of the ’storm track’. Remember, these are statistical models just like Hurrican tracks. There is a cone of possible trajectories and a likely path. It is time pollsters starting showing the actual cone and how it shifts based on simple assumptions.





Feel free to dismiss as per the usual.

[MannyIsGod]

Already dismissed. The main problem I have besides your selective data selection is that you're working with an agenda. You go LOOKING for these articles not because there is evidence the polls are off but because you're looking for something to support what you already believe.

[MannyIsGod]

Actualy the funniest part is the last paragraph. Its the worst analogy of all time, and secondly every well informed poll analysis site tells you the actual numbers are not important but its more about the trend lines. In other words what the article is asking for is already being done.

[florige]

Damn Whottt waste no fucking time with a counter attack to the polls....:lol

[whottt]

Actually I just look at the weights and see that they are increasing them in favor of the Democrats. It's actually pretty simple.

[MannyIsGod]

Since the subject of party weighting keeps coming up let me post a few things about it


2. The decision a pollster faces is whether or not to weight its sample by party ID. In fact, the whole point is that pollsters like Gallup and SurveyUSA do not weight their samples by party ID -- they just tally the results, and let the chips fall where they may. So in some sense accusing them of "cooking" their samples has it backward; what you're really arguing is that they should weight their samples, presumably in a way that is more favorable to your preferred candidate.

Notice that. If you're going to invalidate polls based on party weighting, please keep in mind that SUSA and Gallop (others as well, but I haven't found a list yet) do NOT weight their polls. So if you're going to use this argument, please keep in mind it does not always apply and therefore in your quest to discredit certain polls you'll have to find a new reason to do so.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/lets-get-few-things-straight-party-id.html

[ChumpDumper]

Do you also demand poll cones, whottt?

[MannyIsGod]

So that Gallup poll that Whottt keeps saying is off due to the changes they make to accomodate party ID can't be off because of the changs they make to accomodate party ID because they make NO changes to accomodate party ID.

I'm sure we can now find another reason to dismiss this poll, however. Whottt?

[florige]

I can only imagine how pissed off McCain must be. We might see a fucking meltdown tomorrow outta him.

[florige]

He is trying every trick/gimmick known to man and he is still falling behind in the polls.

[whottt]

So that Gallup poll that Whottt keeps saying is off due to the changes they make to accomodate party ID can't be off because of the changs they make to accomodate party ID because they make NO changes to accomodate party ID.

I'm sure we can now find another reason to dismiss this poll, however. Whottt?



Sure, the results don't match their internals....we've already discussed it remember?

And SurveryUSA can be hired by anyone.


I expect their results to start tightening up the closer we get to the election, for credibility purposes...and I guarantee you they'll be closer than they are now.

[MannyIsGod]

Sure, the results don't match their internals....we've already discussed it remember?

And SurveryUSA can be hired by anyone.


I expect their results to start tightening up the closer we get to the election, for credibility purposes...and I guarantee you they'll be closer than they are now.

:lmao

So now they're just making shit up?

K, whatever works for fairytale world.

[MannyIsGod]

Yesterday's set of fairytale polls are setting up for a rather happy ending. Of course the wicked whottt of the west may not think so, but its not my fault he's getting a house dropped on his ass.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3092/2920189459_1706c9111a_o.png

[MannyIsGod]

On Electoral-Vote.com in 2004, the highest any candidate ever got was 290 EVs. It happend to both Kerry and Bush in the last month at various points but never lasted more than a day.

Today Obama is up to 349 EVs. He's been well oever 300 for some time now. Its been about a week since he was below 300 and its been much longer since he was below 270.

EV was very accurate in 2004.

[TomBrady]

Does anyone find it hilarious how whottt now denounces polls, but when McCain was up the ugly little maggot couldn't stop posting them?

[Bartleby]

Ahh, the good old days, right before the market meltdown:

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=104358&page=13

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao nice.

[baseline bum]

:lol

[TomBrady]

Real Clear Politics now has McCain up 227-207
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/


Latest Rasmussen National has McCain up 50-47.


Second Poll that seems to confirm Minnesota is slipping away from the Democrats:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2


http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/archive/

:lol

whottt was that whottt? you don't believe in polls?

well you sure as hell did when McCain was winning. good god you are one pathetic ugly maggot. your asshole must be tore up from all the anal-rapage going on here.

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3012/2922456638_3a7d134b13_o.png

Largest Gallup lead so far. As noted above, Gallup is NOT weighted by party. Another big number from PA, so you can remove that from the tossup state list as far as I'm concerned.

This basically locks up the Kerry states. I think NH is still technically a tossup, but we'll see how successful McCain can be there.

So right now the Obama path to victory is Kerry+IA+NM+X with a lot of states - almost all of which Barak has leads in (many outside the MoE) - able to fill X.

[Colombiano972]

FWIW, this is from another site I post at.
http://www.bbwforums.net/forum/showthread.php?t=21026

[Findog]

FWIW, this is from another site I post at.
http://www.bbwforums.net/forum/showthread.php?t=21026

Is that safe for work? Does the BBW stand for "big beautiful women?" Are you posting links to porker forums?

[whottt]

Why's everyone laughing?

Did someone post that quote of Manny saying that going by National polls(like Gallup) is foolish?

If so props, because that is funny :tu


And Survey USA can be hired, by anyone...to ask questions in specific ways.


I think I'll wait a couple more days to see if things calm down. Although...I think people are figuring out the Democrats have a great deal to do with the current financial crisis, because the Congressional approval rating is at 13% now.

[Das Texan]

seriously,


whott is something else.

[ElNono]

Why's everyone laughing?

:lmao

[JoeChalupa]

:lmao :lmao

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

Why's everyone laughing?


:lmao

This is going to make me laugh for awhile.

[smeagol]

In case people missed it, whottt is a registered democrat . . .


I am a registered Democrat as we speak(and I was in 04 as well from voting for Gore) and I didn't even vote in the Republican primary this year

Continue :lmao

[MannyIsGod]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/table2.jpg

Where are those people telling me McCain would have as much money to spend as Obama?

In some good news for McCain, four out of the five daily national trackers show movement for McCain but Gallup has gone double digits. I'm assuming that Gallup is the one not weighting by Party ID Whottt will take it more seriously.

LOL

In all seriousness the national trackers might be good news for McCain considering they're mostly data since he started going "negative". They may also just be noise, but we'll see.

[01.20.09]

Palin is helping McCain but will she be enough?

[TomBrady]

:lmao @ whottt

[Findog]

Palin is helping McCain but will she be enough?

I think she's actually dragging the ticket down. Some of the trackers showed some slight movement towards McCain today. I'm guessing that's the Ayers stuff nibbling at the margins. Bill Ayers isn't going to win the election for McCain, and last night's debate was a wasted opportunity to make up some ground.

[01.20.09]

I hope that is true because she sure can draw a conservative crowd and if McCain goes where she goes it can only help.

[MannyIsGod]

Fivethirtyeight.com has a good post today that I was thinking about yesterday. What is the ceiling for Obama? I mean a few weeks ago nobody here would have predicted a +11 on the Gallup poll and giving the party breakdowns you can only get so high before you start running into people that are simply never going to vote for Obama.

I think at this point, Obama is winning over the undecideds at a good margin, and I don't see how he can get much higher in many of these polls. So we'll enter an equilibrium or we'll see some slight movement back to McCain as the polls settle out.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

Whottt getting his ass handed to him even more thoroughly than usual...

I'm disappointed whottt :lol

Seriously though, what the hell happened to the whottt that used to make sense at least??

[RandomGuy]

On Electoral-Vote.com in 2004, the highest any candidate ever got was 290 EVs. It happend to both Kerry and Bush in the last month at various points but never lasted more than a day.

Today Obama is up to 349 EVs. He's been well oever 300 for some time now. Its been about a week since he was below 300 and its been much longer since he was below 270.

EV was very accurate in 2004.

Intrade has similar numbers. Obama 338 McCain 200

Obama's % to win has been going up steadily.

I am sure it will vary a bit up until the election, and there certainly is room for surprises, but the odds against McCain seem to be stacking up.

Much to whottt's dismay.

I wonder what he will say on November 9th?

"It wuz rigged. Massive fraud on an epic scale..." :rolleyes

I am sure he knows he is wrong and is working on a whiney tirade even as we type.

[MannyIsGod]

Today's polls

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3032/2924334283_889d226f00_o.png

McCain is just behind EVERYWHERE he needs to be ahead. At this point Obama could completely ignore OH and FL and still easily find enough EVs to win because he's incredibly solid in all the Kerry states+IA+NM and simply needs another 6 EVs to pass 270. He has so many routes to that outcome.

[RandomGuy]

Today's polls


McCain is just behind EVERYWHERE he needs to be ahead. At this point Obama could completely ignore OH and FL and still easily find enough EVs to win because he's incredibly solid in all the Kerry states+IA+NM and simply needs another 6 EVs to pass 270. He has so many routes to that outcome.

That seemed to be the thinking from the CNN guy (can't remember his name) months ago: Obama had so many ways to get the magic number.


The problem for the Republicans is that he has money and resources to go after quite a few of them. Given his campaigns ability to organize, and the resources to spend, I would not want to bet against him.

I wonder if whottt has some money to back up his big mouth?

:greedy

I would pony up a good $500 or so.

[Findog]

Seriously though, what the hell happened to the whottt that used to make sense at least??

He fell in love with Bible Spice.

[timvp]

Obama is seriously looking like he will cruise to victory. His debate strategy last night was flawless. It'd take something drastic to stop the Obama train. Last night McCain needed a spark or some sign of life but Obama's strategy didn't allow it.

I also like how he abandoned almost every Obama/Biden tactic I was questioning. He didn't try to paint McCain worse than Bush. He didn't step anywhere that could be a slippery slope. Even though Obama supporters disagreed with me following the VP debate, I don't think many are disagreeing now when Obama cut out everything I was complaining about . . .

Obama is like the '99 Spurs in the playoffs. He's concentrating on playing defense, winding down the shot clock and getting good shots offensively. But if faced with an overaggressive trap or press, he doesn't hesitate in finding the open man and finishing with authority at the rim.

:drunk

[ElNono]

Obama is seriously looking like he will cruise to victory. His debate strategy last night was flawless. It'd take something drastic to stop the Obama train. Last night McCain needed a spark or some sign of life but Obama's strategy didn't allow it.

I also like how he abandoned almost every Obama/Biden tactic I was questioning. He didn't try to paint McCain worse than Bush. He didn't step anywhere that could be a slippery slope. Even though Obama supporters disagreed with me following the VP debate, I don't think many are disagreeing now when Obama cut out everything I was complaining about . . .

Obama is like the '99 Spurs in the playoffs. He's concentrating on playing defense, winding down the shot clock and getting good shots offensively. But if faced with an overaggressive trap or press, he doesn't hesitate in finding the open man and finishing with authority at the rim.

:drunk

NBA can't come soon enough...

[MannyIsGod]

Obama is seriously looking like he will cruise to victory. His debate strategy last night was flawless. It'd take something drastic to stop the Obama train. Last night McCain needed a spark or some sign of life but Obama's strategy didn't allow it.

I also like how he abandoned almost every Obama/Biden tactic I was questioning. He didn't try to paint McCain worse than Bush. He didn't step anywhere that could be a slippery slope. Even though Obama supporters disagreed with me following the VP debate, I don't think many are disagreeing now when Obama cut out everything I was complaining about . . .

Obama is like the '99 Spurs in the playoffs. He's concentrating on playing defense, winding down the shot clock and getting good shots offensively. But if faced with an overaggressive trap or press, he doesn't hesitate in finding the open man and finishing with authority at the rim.

:drunk

Bitch! I already him to the 99 Spurs in this very thread!!!

:lmao

[RandomGuy]

Bitch! I already him to the 99 Spurs in this very thread!!!

:lmao

VERB


What are we doing, a mad lib?

Man, that would be funny...

A political forum mad lib, using a story about the election, or a rant from some commentator.

[RandomGuy]

By the by Politico is giving a crushing defeat to McCain.

Obama 364, McCain 174.

[timvp]

Bitch! I already him to the 99 Spurs in this very thread!!!

:lmaoDamn it, I that post.

:smokin

[Findog]

Obama is seriously looking like he will cruise to victory. His debate strategy last night was flawless. It'd take something drastic to stop the Obama train. Last night McCain needed a spark or some sign of life but Obama's strategy didn't allow it.

I also like how he abandoned almost every Obama/Biden tactic I was questioning. He didn't try to paint McCain worse than Bush. He didn't step anywhere that could be a slippery slope. Even though Obama supporters disagreed with me following the VP debate, I don't think many are disagreeing now when Obama cut out everything I was complaining about . . .

Obama is like the '99 Spurs in the playoffs. He's concentrating on playing defense, winding down the shot clock and getting good shots offensively. But if faced with an overaggressive trap or press, he doesn't hesitate in finding the open man and finishing with authority at the rim.

:drunk

I just want to say that I was wrong, timvp. I know I said that I wouldn't mind if Obama used dirty smears against McCain if it came to it, but upon further reflection, I think I was missing the forest for the trees.

First, the Dems don't do smears well. And in this environment, they're not having the usual effect for the GOP. Bill Ayers isn't going to win the election for John McCain, any more than he won the primary for Hillary. The only equivalent I could think of is if Obama went after McCain's POW ordeal. How you conduct yourself as a candidate says a lot about how you would govern as a President. If Obama were willing to go THAT dirty, it would make me seriously reassess what was so attractive about his candidacy to begin with.

That doesn't mean that Obama shouldn't aggressively rebut this crap, or that he should shy away from attacks on McCain's stands on the issues and his policy positions. But to answer your question the second time, I would rather Obama lose running a decent campaign than win dirty.

[timvp]

I just want to say that I was wrong, timvp. I know I said that I wouldn't mind if Obama used dirty smears against McCain if it came to it, but upon further reflection, I think I was missing the forest for the trees.

First, the Dems don't do smears well. And in this environment, they're not having the usual effect for the GOP. Bill Ayers isn't going to win the election for John McCain, any more than he won the primary for Hillary. The only equivalent I could think of is if Obama went after McCain's POW ordeal. How you conduct yourself as a candidate says a lot about how you would govern as a President. If Obama were willing to go THAT dirty, it would make me seriously reassess what was so attractive about his candidacy to begin with.

That doesn't mean that Obama shouldn't aggressively rebut this crap, or that he should shy away from attacks on McCain's stands on the issues and his policy positions. But to answer your question the second time, I would rather Obama lose running a decent campaign than win dirty.Interesting and very well stated :tu

[Findog]

Interesting and very well stated :tu

Even if McCain wins this way, I think it will be a phyrric victory in that it would seriously hinder his ability to govern effectively. The Democrats in Congress and half the population would never forgive him for it, and we'd be treated to the same polarization and the same bitter partisanship as the last eight years.

I think Obama would be affected by a similar dynamic if he went that route...and I think it's telling that he is promoting a message of inclusion towards people that are not naturally inclined to support a Democrat, regardless of what leftie blogs spew about Palin. McCain and Palin, on the other hand, have begun to actively stoke racism and xenophobia. They are dividing the electorate into "us" and "them," and I think people are sick of that.

[whottt]

Whottt getting his ass handed to him even more thoroughly than usual...

Where and how?




I'm disappointed whottt :lol

No you aren't...you're always waiting to step out of the peanut gallery and snipe. It's who and what you are.




Seriously though, what the hell happened to the whottt that used to make sense at least??

I make perfect sense...I said the polls are biased and weighted in favor of the crats(and 90% of them are). I said they were assuming McCain was getting the backlash from the economic crisis...which many of the polls, including Rasmussen, did. By increasing the party id of the crats just baed on the belief Americans will blame Bush mainly for the economic crisis.

I said the polls were shit due to the economic crisis(and not anything Obama was doing), I pointed out they were all over the place, I've pointed out the flaws in just about all of them, and I said I wasn't going to think about taking themt seriously until the dust had settled. I don't see how I got owned there.

In fact I predict Obama's numbers on average will stay in decline until election day. That's pretty much what happened with him in the primaries.


We just might have seen and said goodbye to the biggest lead Obama will have. That's my feeling. But I still don't trust the polls enough right now to say that for certain. I mean he might get one more bump this week but I do predict his numbers will be down by election day from where they are now. Significantly.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao @ Whottt dismissing the polls then trying to act like they mean something in the same fucking post.

[whottt]

Dude...when they start showing consistent trend and not one poll showing OBama up by 19-20 points while another says they are tied or has McCain up by1 , or IOW, when I can understand the results based on what's going on in the campaign, I'll stop dismissing them. I'll still say Obama is polling high though even once they calm down...becuse he already has a record of polling high from the primaries. I mean when the dude loses in a state he has a polling lead in, and loses by 9 freaking points like he did in Cali, or when he has an 8 point lead in NH and loses...that's called polling high. He may not be polling high in every state...but he's definitely polled high enough in the recent past to be skeptical about.

And since it's 1-5 Democrats that are saying they won't vote for him because of race, and Democrats are also the ones most likely to give a PC answer...I'm gonna say he's probably polling high if anywhere in the Blue States won by Hillary....like he did in NH, and California.

[MannyIsGod]

You've shown time and time again how little you know about polls and how you cherry pick what you want to believe out of them. There's no need to do it again, Whottt.

[MannyIsGod]

Couple of early morning notes while I eat my cereal.....

Zogby's update for the day is out already, the 1.9+ spread for Obama yesterday has grown to 3.6 today.

There is also another PA poll out this morning from Strategic Vision which shows Obama up by 14. For all the talk about how erratic - allegedly - the polls are, this is the fifth poll in a row that shows a double digit lead for Obama. PA is no longer a battleground state.

My cereal tastes extra good this morning.

[ElNono]

McCain will win in a Landslide.
Over 300 Electoral Votes.
More votes than Bush.
Obama will get fewer than Kerry.
NY goes to McCain.
Penn goes to McCain.
NH goes to McCain.
Minn goes to McCain(it's in the 270 thread and trending).
WI goes to McCain.

Where and how am I getting my ass kicked?

Why's everyone laughing?



:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

[florige]

McCain might as well surrender PA as well.

Unless this poll is inaccurate as all the Repub's think the polls are these days....:lol

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[florige]

McCain wins Ohio, colorado, nevada, north dakota, virginia. withi winsconsin, michigan and new hampshire being toss ups. new mexico is also a toss up.



:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

The biggest poll of the day is the Dow Jones Industrial. Everyday it drops is another day Ayers means jack fucking shit.

[ChumpDumper]

The Dow is dropping because of Ayers!

[MannyIsGod]

More proof that the "polls are all over the place" logic is severely flawed.

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/4194/obamafloorwz9.jpg

These are just the national trackers, but since well before October started they're all consistently putting Obama at over 48% aside from one occurrence.

[Findog]

Obama polls anywhere between 48-52% in national tracking polls, McCain pulls anywhere between 40-45% of the vote.

Best-case scenario, Obama is up 52-40, with 8% of the electorate undecided. If that's the true state of the race, this election is definitely over. The undecided votes that are left can't save McCain.

Worst-case scenario, Obama is up 48-45, with 7% of the electorate undecided. That means McCain can still win this thing if he can get the undecideds to break for him en masse. He should forget about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota and just defend the Bush 2004 states.

But let's split the difference between the two ends of the spectrum and say Obama is at 50% to McCain's 43%, with 7% of the electorate undecided. In that case, he is probably shit out of luck. Obama shored up his position after the second debate and polling indicates a majority of undecided voters are leaning Obama now.

Bottom line: McCain is toast, unless the true state of the race is 48-45 Obama and he can somehow change the momentum from his opponent.

I know that national polling does not necessarily correlate to state polling and the electoral college, but McCain still still win the EC if Obama's national lead is at 3 points or less. Anything over that, and the state polls don't matter.

[boutons_]

http://www.nytimes.com/images/promos/politics/blog/101008map.jpg

The New York Times has shifted the ratings of three states on its Electoral Map, reflecting the difficult stretch that Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, is going through in his fight with Senator Barack Obama, the Illinois Democrat, for the presidency.


New Hampshire, which The Times had rated as a toss-up, is now shifted as leaning to Mr. Obama, based on polling and interviews with Republican and Democratic officials. The Granite State was good to Mr. McCain in the Republican primaries of 2000 and 2008, and considering that history – and the large number of independents in the state – it remains high on the list of Democratic states that Mr. McCain had been seeking to capture this November.


North Carolina, a state that is normally is about as red as they get, is being moved into the toss-up column. Mr. Obama has poured tons of money into the state, and is spending a lot of time there, and Republicans are growing increasingly anxious that he might take it away from them.


Oregon, which had been leaning toward Mr. Obama, has now gone from light to solid blue: The good residents of the state of Oregon, who had their share of presidential attention in 2004, will probably not get to see much (if any) of the candidates or their advertisements over the next month.

[PixelPusher]

More proof that the "polls are all over the place" logic is severely flawed.

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/4194/obamafloorwz9.jpg

These are just the national trackers, but since well before October started they're all consistently putting Obama at over 48% aside from one occurrence.
CBS News, Democracy Corps. and Ipsos/McClatchy are within the margin for error, and therefore each receive the JCP Award (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2810685&postcount=16).

[boutons_]

"Barack Obama (http://www.newsweek.com/related.aspx?subject=Barack+Obama) now leads John McCain (http://www.newsweek.com/related.aspx?subject=John+McCain) by double digits, 52 percent to 41 percent among registered voters—a marked shift from the last NEWSWEEK poll (http://www.newsweek.com/id/158627), conducted one month ago, when the two candidates were tied at 46 percent."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163339

Maybe this is one of the sources of McNasty's new found civility.

He's getting his old, senile, confused ass stomped with an Ayers ugly stick.

New Repug attack line: ACORN invented mortgage-backed securities and default credit swaps. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3029/2930347428_4dc5d8b589_o.png

Just another day of polling favorable to Obama.

[boutons_]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/10/the-mccain-wander_n_133775.html


Mabye McWanderer is looking for his 270! :lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBtmaq0J2kU

[Cry Havoc]

I honestly don't see Obama carrying N.C. I think a lot of reds turn out on the final days to push that state to McCain. Not comfortably, but enough that he'll win it.

It doesn't matter right now, because McCain cannot win this election without taking Ohio AND Pennsylvania, and that's not going to happen.

[Findog]

I honestly don't see Obama carrying N.C. I think a lot of reds turn out on the final days to push that state to McCain. Not comfortably, but enough that he'll win it.

It doesn't matter right now, because McCain cannot win this election without taking Ohio AND Pennsylvania, and that's not going to happen.

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

[MannyIsGod]

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

Exactly, if Obama wins NC he's winning in a landslide.

[whottt]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html




West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

West Virginia
McCain Obama Other Undecided

Likely voters 42% 50% 3% 5%

Democrats (55%) 20% 76% 2% 2%
Republicans (35%) 79% 10% 2% 9%
Independents (10%) 38% 50% 7% 5%

Men (48%) 49% 46% 3% 2%
Women (52%) 36% 54% 3% 7%

18 to 49 (53%) 40% 51% 4% 5%
50 and older (47%) 45% 50% 1% 4%

Sep 14-16 49% 45% - 7%



:lmao

55% Democrats
35% Republicans

And he's still only getting 50% of the vote...that's hilarious.


If every African American and Hispanic of voting age or not, in the entire state registered to vote, and voted for Obama, that'd be about 45k voters in a state that was decided by over 100 thousand votes in favor of Bush in 2004.


These polls are totally fucked.

[ElNono]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html




West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

West Virginia
McCain Obama Other Undecided

Likely voters 42% 50% 3% 5%

Democrats (55%) 20% 76% 2% 2%
Republicans (35%) 79% 10% 2% 9%
Independents (10%) 38% 50% 7% 5%

Men (48%) 49% 46% 3% 2%
Women (52%) 36% 54% 3% 7%

18 to 49 (53%) 40% 51% 4% 5%
50 and older (47%) 45% 50% 1% 4%

Sep 14-16 49% 45% - 7%



:lmao

55% Democrats
35% Republicans

And he's still only getting 50% of the vote...that's hilarious.


If every African American and Hispanic of voting age or not, in the entire state registered to vote, and voted for Obama, that'd be about 45k voters in a state that was decided by over 100 thousand votes in favor of Bush in 2004.


These polls are totally fucked.

From the same page:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/NH08.html



New Hampshire
McCain Obama Other Undecided
Likely voters 43% 52% 1% 4%
Democrats (31%) 6% 88% - 6%
Republicans (32%) 95% 2% - 3%
Independents (37%) 29% 65% 2% 4%
Men (50%) 52% 43% - 5%
Women (50%) 34% 61% 1% 4%
18 to 49 (59%) 41% 53% 1% 5%
50 and older (41%) 46% 51% - 3%
Sep 13-15 48% 45% 1% 6%
Aug 18-20 45% 46% 9%
Jul 19-21 45% 47% 8%
Jun 13-17 39% 51% 10%


Yeah, these polls are totally fucked. :rolleyes

[MannyIsGod]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html




West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

West Virginia
McCain Obama Other Undecided

Likely voters 42% 50% 3% 5%

Democrats (55%) 20% 76% 2% 2%
Republicans (35%) 79% 10% 2% 9%
Independents (10%) 38% 50% 7% 5%

Men (48%) 49% 46% 3% 2%
Women (52%) 36% 54% 3% 7%

18 to 49 (53%) 40% 51% 4% 5%
50 and older (47%) 45% 50% 1% 4%

Sep 14-16 49% 45% - 7%

:lmao

55% Democrats
35% Republicans

And he's still only getting 50% of the vote...that's hilarious.


If every African American and Hispanic of voting age or not, in the entire state registered to vote, and voted for Obama, that'd be about 45k voters in a state that was decided by over 100 thousand votes in favor of Bush in 2004.


These polls are totally fucked.

Cherry pick away. Is anyone really thinking Obama is going to carry West Virginia? You find one poll where you can point out poor internals and use that to write them all off. Thats fine, these polls are all totally fucked.

Actually I'd be fine with writing off each and every ARG poll out there because they've been extremely volatile.

[MannyIsGod]

A different kind of poll this time. NJ polled political insiders to see who they thought would win. 80% of the GOP they polled thinks Obama is going to win.

Can you say deflated base?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/ip_20081011_4853.php?related=true&story1=co_20080824_1525&story2=cdp_20080522_7275&story3=cdp_20080418_6542

Some of their comments on this:



7. "Wall Street's collapse probably sealed the deal for Obama."
7. "McCain-Palin have not changed the trend line in three debates, which means the only place to go is more negative. And that won't work in the midst of the financial crisis. They're getting critically outspent on TV. And Obama has a much more proficient ground game. Help!"
7. "McCain ran a truly awful campaign and hurt his brand big-time."
7. "Very little changed with the debate. And there is likely nothing that will change the political environment for McCain to close the gap."
7. "You can never entirely count McCain out, but both the atmospherics and the fundamentals are now pointing toward an Obama rout."
7. "It feels like 1996."
8. "Barring a terrorist incident or other foreign-policy crisis that takes the focus off the economy, Obama can't lose."
8. "But, frankly, with anybody but McCain it would be '10.' "
8. "As long as economic news dominates, McCain appears to have no way of breaking through."
8. "O.J. [Simpson] has a better chance of getting community service than McCain has of winning this thing."
9. "There is just no juice in the Republican effort--and no wonder: We failed time and again to provide appropriate leadership for our country and the world. We don't deserve another chance--at least for a while. And the American people agree."
10. "I love my crazy uncle. I don't like anybody else's."

[Bartleby]

Is anyone really thinking Obama is going to carry West Virginia?

Probably not, but there is a much better chance of WV going blue than NY going red.

There was an article recently in the New Yorker about about the Appalachian voters (particularly the Scots-Irish population) in rural Virginia which suggests that a lot of the people in that region are not the sort of hardliner Republicans many people make them out to be.

Plus, this poll has Obama ahead outside the margin of error:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/west-virginia.html

[MannyIsGod]

Where the Presidential race stands. By the standards of Presidential elections since 1992, Barack Obama is far ahead. For most of this season he has been running about 50 EV ahead of where John Kerry ran (http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-the-2004-race/)at the same point in 2004, which ended in a near-tie. Currently the gap is even larger - it’s nearing Clinton v. Dole (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1996.svg) proportions. In the face of a down economy and abysmal approval ratings for the Bush Administration, a lead of this size by a Democrat is essentially insurmountable.
This is why John McCain’s tactics have become increasingly savage - it’s his last stand. It is why Obama has started to buy 30-minute blocks of time - he is shooting for a massive blowout. Conservative commentators are jumping ship, writing obituaries for the Republican Party or even coming out for Obama. The writing is on the wall. Every knowledgeable insider on either side knows it.
At a time like this, one impulse is to worry or grasp for straws, depending on who you are rooting for. You might like to speculate on the Bradley effect, in which polls overstate the support for the black candidate. This effect was never more than 2-3 percentage points in the first place, and signs of it disappeared over a decade ago (http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/27/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/). You might want to know if cell phone users are undersampled. Perhaps, but only by a little (http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/25/the-cell-phone-effect-and-how-to-correct-it/), and that’s a population that favors Obama by an even larger margin than the general population. You might want to know if pollsters’ likely voter models are off. This effect isn’t going to be more than a few points, and could well be zero. All of these potential errors are either negligible or suggest that Obama has more support than polls now state. In short, the wind is at Barack Obama’s back. I currently expect a final outcome of Obama 318-364 EV, McCain 174-220 EV.


http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/10/a-hard-look-at-reality-and-what-you-should-do/#more-1773

[MannyIsGod]

4 national polls out so far this morning and Obama is within 2 points of 51% in all of them.

So inconsistent I tell you. They're all over the place!!!!! I'd be willing to bet money that Gallup comes in probably right at 51.

[exstatic]

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.
The point is, that by actively fighting, spending in, and contesting states like this, he's forcing McCain to engage there too, instead of spending in battleground states like PA and OH.

The campaign resource disparity is really rearing it's ugly head at the GOP. The world it truly turned upside down when the young brother is the "have", and the old white Republican is the "have not".

[Bartleby]

McCain's lifeblood is the money he gets from the RNC. I wonder if they're going to shift into damage control as his bid for the WH starts to look more and more like a lost cause and start using that money for close Congressional races instead (if they haven't already).

[MannyIsGod]

There were rumors the RNC was going to cut off funding to McCain shortly. I don't know how much truth to put in this, but I wonder when they pulled it on Dole.

[MannyIsGod]

4 national polls out so far this morning and Obama is within 2 points of 51% in all of them.

So inconsistent I tell you. They're all over the place!!!!! I'd be willing to bet money that Gallup comes in probably right at 51.

I was wrong, they came in at 50! GASP.

[Cry Havoc]

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

Well that's what I'm saying. If he's going after "luxury" states, he's got it wrapped.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Seeing those NC numbers make me laugh at this statement from a student at Liberty University about why she registered to vote in the battleground state of Virginia.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95414732



And it worked. Junior Sarah Blanzy, for example, switched her registration from North Carolina to Virginia. The reason was simple.

"North Carolina is going to go red," she says. "I'm not really too worried about that, and I am nervous about the outcome of Virginia. I feel like my vote may be a little more important here."

[MannyIsGod]

Well that student has the right idea. McCain has to pray that NC holds as is and that he can win Virginia in order to have a chance. In the regard that if Obama wins NC he's already won VA a vote in VA is more valuable.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm going to spend next weekend in NM on an extended weekend and then the weekend afterwards I'll be in MI and plan to spend at the least one day volunteering and canvassing in OH. Depending on school/getting my airfare changed I may stay an extra week up there and spend that week canvassing in OH or I may come back and spend the last weekend before election day in FL or CO.

[MannyIsGod]

Lovely

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3073/2933097684_a43e205a18.jpg?v=0

http://www.news-leader.com/article/20081009/BLOGS09/81009018

[MannyIsGod]

http://flickr.com/photos/christianready/sets/72157602564307604/show/

Pretty awesome slideshow.

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3014/2936590050_569b6492e3_o.png

More rigged polls.

[ChumpDumper]

So wait, is Obama a Muslim or Sikh sleeper agent?

[velik_m]

http://flickr.com/photos/christianready/sets/72157602564307604/show/

Pretty awesome slideshow.

Reminds me of C&C.

[timvp]

Lovely

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3073/2933097684_a43e205a18.jpg?v=0

http://www.news-leader.com/article/20081009/BLOGS09/81009018

As lame as that sign is, it probably will be factually true in four years . . .

[Shastafarian]

As lame as that sign is, it probably will be factually true in four years . . .

Obama's gonna start wearing head dresses and put "" around his middle name?

[Mr. Peabody]

Obama's gonna start wearing head dresses and put "" around his middle name?

Maybe he'll start losing his hair. And with those ears, he can't pull off the bald look.

[Mr. Peabody]

I'm going to spend next weekend in NM on an extended weekend and then the weekend afterwards I'll be in MI and plan to spend at the least one day volunteering and canvassing in OH. Depending on school/getting my airfare changed I may stay an extra week up there and spend that week canvassing in OH or I may come back and spend the last weekend before election day in FL or CO.

God damn Manny!:wow

Are you the Obama ground game we've been hearing so much about?

[MannyIsGod]

As lame as that sign is, it probably will be factually true in four years . . .

More taxes yeah, but the other 3 - especially abortions - are extremely iffy. I don't see the amount of abortions going up because of Obama. If he gets his sex ed way then they'll certainly go down as will teenage pregnancy rates in general.

Same sex marriages are going to go up with or without Obama in office. It is fundamentally unconstitutional to prevent them and the barriers are being torn down every day. I think they'll go up, but I think they'll go up if McCain is in office as well.

People also don't need to be afraid about gun regulation. Thats so 90s and its really off the national radar with a ton of over issues being far more in the spotlight. The right still likes to trot it out to rile up their base but what was the last major national gun legislation passed?

Taxes are goign to go up though. There's no denying that.

[MannyIsGod]

God damn Manny!:wow

Are you the Obama ground game we've been hearing so much about?

I'm part of it :) There are tons of people doing this though. I'm going to NM with a bunch of people from the SA office and local volunteers. I'm going to MI to visit Jess but we're both heading into OH to do some volunteering where there are already a bunch of local and national volunteers. I'm also working my local precient.

Obama has a huge network of offices in each and every state and even if your state is not a battleground there are resources in place to put you to work in a battleground state if you're willing to donate some time or put your money to work to get someone to a battleground state. I sat and watched on Saturday as a woman walked in and handed one of the local cochairs a check to finance a charter bus to take people to NM this weekend. People are really really fired up and although my experience with the 2004 campaign left me extremely jaded my experiences with this campaign have been the exact opposite.

I urge everyone to get out there and volunteer or donate in some form. This is something you're going to look back on and be glad you had ownership in.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, I also want to say that while I'm generally very optimistic about the results on Nov 5, I also know that races historically tighten before election day and its important to keep the pressure on.

Its easy to see the poll figures and to simply write everything off as an Obama win but you have to remember what got Obama to this point to begin with. The ground game advantage is sevrely tilted in favor of Obama but in order for it to stay that way people have to not let up.

[ElNono]

Are you going to be around when you make it to Mr Senator MannyIsGod?
And will you remember your old pals at SpursTalk when you have to hand out those cushy government jobs?
:lol

[florige]

Obama now leads by 8 pts in MO...... Unfreakinbelievable.... McCain had better pull something out of his ass on Wed......:lol



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/13/surveyusa_obama_takes_lead_in_missouri.html

[TheMadHatter]

I'm getting ready to call this race over. McCain still has a puncher's chance....we'll see how he does in the 3rd debate.

If the polls stay where they are heading into the election it's going to be an Obama landslide.

President Barack HUSSEIN Obama....get used to it.

[jman3000]

his middle name is Hussein?

like the ex dictator of Iraq?

that scares me shitless.

[Cry Havoc]

Oh, I also want to say that while I'm generally very optimistic about the results on Nov 5, I also know that races historically tighten before election day and its important to keep the pressure on.

Its easy to see the poll figures and to simply write everything off as an Obama win but you have to remember what got Obama to this point to begin with. The ground game advantage is sevrely tilted in favor of Obama but in order for it to stay that way people have to not let up.

I'm ready to about call this a wrap. Unless McCain scores a huge, decisive victory in the last debate, Obama has far too much momentum right now. It says a lot when the dyed in the wool red states are doing more than just going neutral, but actually shifting over to Obama.

McCain should have played this entire election defensively. He should have opened his mouth as little as possible, shown at least a semblance of respect for his opponent, and taken a lot more care to not personally contradict himself. His advisers made ridiculous claims attempting to credit him for inventing the Blackberry, his entire campaign was predicated on attacking Obama rather than explaining why he was a good candidate, and he took a huge gamble with his nomination for VP. Shock value might work in politics... but it won't persist for 2 solid months unless there is a lot of substance backing it up.

Really though, I think the biggest mistake was the same one Hillary made. They both drastically, incomprehensibly underestimated Obama because of the fact that he is a relative newcomer to D.C. The real irony here, however, is that McCain and Hillary both fancied themselves as "real" people who would stand up to Washington from the position of the everyman. They tried to untangle themselves as much as possible from the corruption in WASHINGTON (bleeeeh for edits). At the exact same time, they were assailing Obama -- not because of his policies or his ability -- but because of that very same distance from Washington that they were themselves trying to establish.

I'm not sure the average voter is smart enough to consciously make this distinction. But I think it might reach them on some level. Obama is an underdog and a newcomer, and he's eloquent. You could not draw up a candidate who represents a more distant break from Bush, regardless of the actual policies. Every time McCain and Ms. Clinton ripped Obama, it almost felt like they were defending Bush somehow. It also made them look arrogant and haughty... yet another 8 year itch that this country has grown to loathe.

[jman3000]

They tried to untangle themselves as much as possible from the corruption in Hollywood.




damn that corruption in Hollywood!

damn it to hell!

[boutons_]

And HUSSEIN raised $66M in September.

He will blow that in causing McNasty to crash his campaign.

My guess is there isn't a lot of Repug/RNC enthusiasm for pouring $Ms down McNasty's rat hole. They also need to spend to try to keep the Dems from getting 60 in the Senate, and huge lead in the House, their "down ticket" concerns.

[Cry Havoc]

damn that corruption in Hollywood!

damn it to hell!

ahahahahahaha

I suck. :toast I don't even know how I typed that.

[MannyIsGod]

With that said, the evidence is pretty strong that the Bradley Effect in fact used to exist in the 1980s and probably through some point in the 1990s. In this Pew Research (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/408/can-you-trust-what-polls-say-about-obamas-electoral-prospects) article you will find several examples of it, spanning the window from Harold Washington in 1983 to Carol Moseley Braun in 1992.

The evidence is perhaps equally strong, however, that the Bradley Effect does not exist any longer. As can be seen in the Hopkins paper for Harvard University (http://www.blogger.com/people.iq.harvard.edu/%7Edhopkins/wilder13.pdf) that I have referenced many times, at some point during the mid 1990s the Bradley Effect seems to be disappeared.

(A brief aside: This is not to suggest that there was no relationship between race an errors in polling during the Democratic primaries. There is clear evidence that Barack Obama overperformed his polls in states with a large number of African-American voters, a.k.a a Reverse Bradley Effect. There is not any statistically compelling evidence (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/bradley%20effect) however that Obama routinely underperformed his polls in states with a large number of white voters).

Yet another in a series of great posts on FiveThirtyEight.com dealing with the Bradley Effect and its existance or lack thereof.

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3041/2939262363_25c028b151_o.png

What what.

[ElNono]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3041/2939262363_25c028b151_o.png

What what.

I see New York is still in play... :lmao

[Colombiano972]

Damn I didn't think that ND would be in play for Obama. Might be an outlier though.

[timvp]

I don't see the amount of abortions going up because of Obama.I'd say they will go up compared to if Palin and co. go to Washington.


Same sex marriages are going to go up with or without Obama in office. It is fundamentally unconstitutional to prevent them and the barriers are being torn down every day. I think they'll go up, but I think they'll go up if McCain is in office as well.True but I'd say they'll go up more with Obama versus McCain. McCain might try to win some points with the Religious Right at some point.


People also don't need to be afraid about gun regulation. Thats so 90s and its really off the national radar with a ton of over issues being far more in the spotlight.True but comparatively speaking it's no contest.


Obama has a huge network of offices in each and every state and even if your state is not a battleground there are resources in place to put you to work in a battleground state if you're willing to donate some time or put your money to work to get someone to a battleground state.

Serious question ... is there anything that can happen before the election to make you switch your vote from Obama to McCain? And what do you think the percent chance of that happening is?

TIA.

:hat

[MannyIsGod]

I really don't see abortions going up under Obama. I see them going down. I mean maybe in the short term they'll go up but they'd go up regardless of who is in office based on the sex ed policies we're seeing now.

We've seen an explosion of teenage pregnancy once again after years of decline and I fully attribute that to the current abstinence only sex ed shit they teach. Its such foolish crap.

There's nothing they can do directly from DC to stop abortions from happening, but sex ed has indirect results that are clearly visible and we've all seen what effect the current policies in that regard have had on abortion and unwanted pregnancies in general.

You know barring some huge scandal breaking out or Obama doing the exorcist head turn on national TV that I'm not going to change my mind.

[MannyIsGod]

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported recently (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/More_signs_of_a_surge.html) on disproportionate early voting among African-Americans. Georgia doesn't appear to be in play in the presidential election, but it tracks early votes contemporaneously (and online (http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm)), so it may be a useful bellwether for what's happening elsewhere.
If it is, the news continues to be extremely good for Obama. Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 -- more than 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004, according to Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for the Secretary of State. (The state is also newly encouraging early voting this year, so that's a major factor in the overall increase.)
Most striking: The ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high. 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state's electorate.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/


Pretty interesting. If Obama gets higher than expected AA turnout in general you can forget about the polls being accurate in many states but not in the direction most McCain supporters hope.

[JoeChalupa]

I know I'll be having some great post election sex but I have no worries about pregnancy. BARACK ON!!!

[MannyIsGod]

Fuck, NYT poll tonight shows a big ass Obama lead but they've had a Dem lean according to 538 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html), so its not as big as it shows. That being said Obama's lead is pretty substantial at this point and more importantly the way McCain's favorability ratings are droping are pretty noteworthy.

[MannyIsGod]

Great news for McCain!!! South Carolina appears to be a lock to go Red.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3036/2942285153_943fb68485_o.png

[Wild Cobra]

:lol @ Obama winning OH but losing PA. Demographics much?

Hey, I know I could be wrong. So what?

[MannyIsGod]

Hey, I know I could be wrong. So what?

Well if you want to throw darts at random states to decide how they will go thats fine, I just figured you would like to have a logical line of thinking to back up your state selections. If PA is red, then OH is red.

[Wild Cobra]

Well if you want to throw darts at random states to decide how they will go thats fine, I just figured you would like to have a logical line of thinking to back up your state selections. If PA is red, then OH is red.
I'm factoring in racism and black population in my guessing. Ohio has more blacks, and Pennsylvania has more Good 'ol Boys!

[MannyIsGod]

I'm factoring in racism and black population in my guessing. Ohio has more blacks, and Pennsylvania has more Good 'ol Boys!

Wow, thats deep. Can you show me some evidence of elections recently where race has had a negative effect in PA and a positive effect in OH in recent history?

You can start with the primary results if you want.

[Wild Cobra]

Wow, thats deep. Can you show me some evidence of elections recently where race has had a negative effect in PA and a positive effect in OH in recent history?

You can start with the primary results if you want.
I'm not going to try. We'll see in three weeks, OK?

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not going to try. We'll see in three weeks, OK?

Its ok to say you have no data to back up what you're saying WC. You can attribute things to your gut or whatever you want, but at least be honest about it because I've seen extensive breakdowns of that regions election data and it simply doesn't support what you're saying so I know that you don't have anything to back it up with.

Just admit it. Its not that hard or that bad.

[Wild Cobra]

Its ok to say you have no data to back up what you're saying WC.

OK, I have no third party data to back me up.

I'm just going by a gut feeling for an educated guess. I am relying on my travels across this nation, and getting to know people from so many places.

That's all.

[Bartleby]

I live in rural PA. There are a lot more Obama signs than I would have imagined given that this is one of the reddest parts of the state. Unscientific as that may be, I strongly doubt PA goes to McCain.

[florige]

Great news for McCain!!! South Carolina appears to be a lock to go Red.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3036/2942285153_943fb68485_o.png



Geeezus he is almost 20 in MI? Just two weeks ago that was considered a battleground......:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Geeezus he is almost 20 in MI? Just two weeks ago that was considered a battleground......:lol

When you say "i'm pulling out of your state" it sends a message to people that they are not important. Its easy to believe those polls since they were really favorable prior to this anyway.

[florige]

WTF has Whottt boycotted this thread or something??:lol

[Wild Cobra]

Geeezus he is almost 20 in MI? Just two weeks ago that was considered a battleground......:lol
Don't trust the polls. They are notorious for inaccuracy this far out, especially when the respondants are claiming about 40% democrat 30% republican 30% other. Wait till a few days before the election, then they will be closer, but still not accurate.

Factors for election turnout vary by other things on the ballot as well. I started a list, then deleted it. Too many factors to try to explain with the little time left.

[MannyIsGod]

Don't trust the polls. They are notorious for inaccuracy this far out, especially when the respondants are claiming about 40% democrat 30% republican 30% other. Wait till a few days before the election, then they will be closer, but still not accurate.

Factors for election turnout vary by other things on the ballot as well. I started a list, then deleted it. Too many factors to try to explain with the little time left.

Proof please.

[timvp]

Manny, if you were a McCain adviser, what state combination would you be gunning for? It looks like he'd have to comeback and take Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. That's a tall task but it looks like that'd be his only shot.

Agreed?

[whottt]

WTF has Whottt boycotted this thread or something??:lol



Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.


Basically if I were to post I'd say I think the polls are BS, list my reasons, then the asshats pileon ensues...we've already done that 10 times so unless I got something new to add or I see you guys adding something new, I don't really see any point in going over the same shit. But I do still read the thread....

[MannyIsGod]

Manny, if you were a McCain adviser, what state combination would you be gunning for? It looks like he'd have to comeback and take Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. That's a tall task but it looks like that'd be his only shot.

Agreed?

He only has one shot and its the shot you just laid out. I mean thats flat out it. He has to run the table because Obama has the Kerry states + Iowa locked up. I am pretty sure NM is locked up also. That means that at that point ANY of those states you listed above moving to Obama puts him above 270.

Its just such a tall task.

Rush asked Palin today what she was planning as far as her future political career. What kind of a message does that send? If Rush thought she was going to win, wouldn't her future political career be set in stone as VP with a run at the presidency post McCain? When Rush doesn't believe, you know things are bad for the GOP.

[Findog]

Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.


Basically if I were to post I'd say I think the polls are BS, list my reasons, then the asshats pileon ensues...we've already done that 10 times so unless I got something new to add or I see you guys adding something new, I don't really see any point in going over the same shit. But I do still read the thread....

In other words, the polls were something to spooge over during the height of Palin mania, but now that the worm has turned, they have to be erroneous.

:lmao

[whottt]

In other words, the polls were something to spooge over during the height of Palin mania, but now that the worm has turned, they have to be erroneous.

:lmao

#1. That's hilarious coming from a guy whose stock response during that period was: Obama will win. Obama will win. To every poll posted.

#2. When the polls started showing @19 point differentials or so, in the same state, on the same day, something they are still doing in most of the battelgrounds, I said they were bullshit and I wasn't going to take them seriously.

#3. You guys lost enthusiasm for posting polls during that period, so someone had to do it.

#4. They haven't changed much Nationally in the past few weeks, and if anything they've been trending down for Obama. Which I already called they would do.

#5. I've already listed numerous times why I think the polls favor the Democrats, so unless you guys want me to keep doing it(similar to what you were doing during the surge only with 10x more thought, intelligence and analysis behind it in my case) I don't really see what I have to add.

[whottt]

I suppose I could be posting to point out how all the fraudulent registrations are impacting many of the weights in these polls...is that what you guys want me to do? I kinda already did it...but I could do it in more detail.

[boutons_]

bogus voter registrations DO NOT EQUAL voter fraud

As David Gergen said, HUSSEIN does not have the WH wrapped up, simply because he's black (America has 10s of millions of hard-core, ignornant racist rabble being roused and inflamed by McNasty's campaign).

[whottt]

Right:

This is voter fraud:

Something smells at 2885 Brownlee Avenue in Columbus, Ohio.

I strongly recommend that the Ohio Republican Party get on the case before it’s too late. Today’s the last day to challenge voters who registered early in Ohio before the run up to Election Day.

Here’s the stench: An entire houseful of young, non-Ohioan Democrat activists have used the Brownlee Avenue address to register themselves to vote in the Buckeye State and secure absentee ballots under extremely shady circumstances — all while mobilizing a large effort to register thousands of others for absentee and early voting. The activists are leaders of a group called “Vote From Home ‘08.” The group is self-identified as having “extensive experience with political organizing, election administration, and Democratic politics.” They were hailed as the “Justice League” by a Daily Kos blogger. Their Facebook page brags: “Want to turn the Presidential election blue in a key swing state? Vote from Home is a political organization that was founded by a team of young people for the purpose of assisting, aiding, and tracking voters to elect progressive candidates to the White House. Encouraged by the excitement of the 2008 elections and the movement around the Democratic candidates, Vote From Home will be in Ohio seeking to deliver 10,000 votes to Democratic candidates statewide.”

My friends at Palestra.net, a network of young reporters who have been doing the voter and registration fraud reporting that the MSM has been slow to do, have a breaking investigative report on how several members of the Democrat Vote From Home team — all Rhodes, Marshall, Fulbright, and Truman Scholars studying abroad — are turning up on Franklin County voter rolls despite having no bona fide residence in Ohio and admittedly having little to no knowledge about the state before descending on it in August to sign up other new voters in a rush to put 10,000 Obama supporters on the rolls.


http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/15/voter-fraud-alert-houseful-of-out-of-state-obama-activists-registered-as-ohio-voters-received-absentee-ballots/