How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Findog]

http://www.bradblog.com/

This is the ONLY way McCain wins. I'm nervous. Obama has run such a smart campaign, surely the DNC has lawyers working on this.

[MannyIsGod]

Today's polls

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3196/2904170057_6edd6a6c45_o.png

Check www.fivethirtyeight.com for the breakdown. It explains why they Quinpac polls are seperated (one is post debate, I'll let you guess which) and goes into detail on some of the info.

The bottom line? Another good day for Obama.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.bradblog.com/

This is the ONLY way McCain wins. I'm nervous. Obama has run such a smart campaign, surely the DNC has lawyers working on this.

30 days out there are a lot of ways McCain wins. There's a reason they call them October Surprises.

[Findog]

30 days out there are a lot of ways McCain wins. There's a reason they call them October Surprises.

If you look at the internals of these polls, Obama gets high favorability ratings across the board, so negative attacks will not be nearly as effective. I just hope Obama and the DNC have a legal ground game as well as a GOTV ground game.

[MannyIsGod]

If you look at the internals of these polls, Obama gets high favorability ratings across the board, so negative attacks will not be nearly as effective. I just hope Obama and the DNC have a legal ground game as well as a GOTV ground game.

I agree with this, but an October surprise isn't a negative attack. Its Bin Laden doing something, its a sudden flare up somewhere, its a picture of Obama in women's underwear etc etc.

[Findog]

I agree with this, but an October surprise isn't a negative attack. Its Bin Laden doing something, its a sudden flare up somewhere, its a picture of Obama in women's underwear etc etc.

I'm not really worried. They've been talking about October Surprises for a long time, and the last one I can think of is Bush's DWI arrest revelation. It refers to the fear Republicans had that Carter would negotiate a successful hostage release.

Even if Osama came out with a tape, Obama could just say "I have a message for OBL. You won't be around to make a tape in 2012. GWB and McCain may not care that you are in Pakistan, but I do. Your days are numbered when I take office."

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not really worried. They've been talking about October Surprises for a long time, and the last one I can think of is Bush's DWI arrest revelation. It refers to the fear Republicans had that Carter would negotiate a successful hostage release.

Even if Osama came out with a tape, Obama could just say "I have a message for OBL. You won't be around to make a tape in 2012. GWB and McCain may not care that you are in Pakistan, but I do. Your days are numbered when I take office."

I'm just giving examples. I generally agree with you that Obama is in the best position he's been in all year and every day that goes by makes it all that more likely.

[hitmanyr2k]

GTFO.... Obama just took the lead in NC.....:wow
This shit is falling down for McCain.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/29/ppp_poll_obama_moves_ahead_in_north_carolina.html


For McCain to be losing in North Carolina is incredible and just shows how far he's fallen. NC is military country. Even my father, a gung-ho Marine 1st Sgt and Republican supporter the last 8 years has gone Democratic this year. Politically we've had some spirited arguments over the years but he finally saw the light :lol

[Crookshanks]

I am genuinely afraid for this country - there are just too many uninformed people. If Obama wins this election, it will be the media who got him elected. And it's so sad that there are so many people willing to buy into all the crap they're unloading on McCain and Palin.

But if the stupid people elect Obama - then they all deserve everything bad that will happen to them in the next 4 years - and they can't bitch about it!

[Findog]

I am genuinely afraid for this country - there are just too many uninformed people. If Obama wins this election, it will be the media who got him elected. And it's so sad that there are so many people willing to buy into all the crap they're unloading on McCain and Palin.

But if the stupid people elect Obama - then they all deserve everything bad that will happen to them in the next 4 years - and they can't bitch about it!

Yes, Grandpa McRage and Bible Spice would make for a dynamite combo!

We've seen what happens when you let the GOP run the country the past 8 years. The Democrats deserve a chance to do better.

[JoeChalupa]

Obama hits 50% in FL, NC!!

Barack the vote baby!!!!!

[hitmanyr2k]

I am genuinely afraid for this country - there are just too many uninformed people. If Obama wins this election, it will be the media who got him elected. And it's so sad that there are so many people willing to buy into all the crap they're unloading on McCain and Palin.

But if the stupid people elect Obama - then they all deserve everything bad that will happen to them in the next 4 years - and they can't bitch about it!

It won't be the media that gets Obama elected...it's McCain's stupidity. I've said it once and I'll say it again. If McCain is so experienced why is he running this shit campaign without any specifics on his policies? Why can't he simply separate himself from George Bush and say Bush did that but I'm going to do this? Why did he choose this clueless lady as his VP? That's the main thing that threw my father over the deep end :lol McCain has made mistake after mistake and his "shoot from the hip" mentality is catching up with him. People are starting to see through all the Maverick bullshit and beneath it there's nothing of substance there. You can only go so far with the POW routine before people start demanding more. I saw it coming weeks ago. It's hard to believe the McCain campaign didn't.

[Crookshanks]

It won't be the media that gets Obama elected...it's McCain's stupidity. I've said it once and I'll say it again. If McCain is so experienced why is he running this shit campaign without any specifics on his policies? Why can't he simply separate himself from George Bush and say Bush did that but I'm going to do this? Why did he choose this clueless lady as his VP? That's the main thing that threw my father over the deep end :lol McCain has made mistake after mistake and his "shoot from the hip" mentality is catching up with him. People are starting to see through all the Maverick bullshit and beneath it there's nothing of substance there. You can only go so far with the POW routine before people start demanding more. I saw it coming weeks ago. It's hard to believe the McCain campaign didn't.

I have to agree that McCain hasn't run his campaign too wisely in the last week. He hasn't capitalized on Obama's weaknesses the way he should have. He had several opportunities during the debate to hit a knock-out punch and he didn't do it. I really think McCain is surprised how viciously his "buddies" in the MSM have turned on him.

As for Sarah Palin - I think she's far more intelligent than what's been evident in the last few weeks. I think McCain's advisors have over coached her and it's made her tentative in her interviews and produced a few really bad soundbites. They need to just let her be Sarah - the woman he thought enough of to name her the VP candidate.

But there's no denying the fact that the media has given Obama and Biden a huge pass on so many issues and statements - and that has definitely shaped people's perceptions of both of them.

If McCain stands any chance at all - he has to take the gloves off and really start hitting hard WITH FACTS AND SPECIFICS.

[MannyIsGod]

Its so funny to listen to people wail about the medias agenda. Either the electorate is smart enough or its not, but I didn't hear anyone bitching when the media's agenda included war in Iraq and getting George Bush elected.

[whottt]

Whottt never posted his article

http://www.livescience.com/culture/080928-political-polls.html

Survey Says: Polls Have ProblemsBy Jeanna Bryner, Senior Writer

posted: 29 September 2008 09:51 am ET
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Election polls showing John McCain ahead one day, Barack Obama the next, then some neck-and-neck results the next day, are seriously flawed, according to one pollster. Another pollster begs to differ, saying polls provide valuable information about public opinion on candidates and about which issues are pushing the electorate.

"Right now polls don't tell the truth about the electorate and they don’t tell the truth about the American public," said David Moore, founder of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and former managing editor of the Gallup Poll.

Moore's main issue involves the wording of a standard poll question, which asks who a person would vote for if elections were held today. Rather than giving voters a chance to report mixed feelings or just not knowing, polls tend to "force" a definitive answer, said Moore, author of "The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls" (Beacon Press, 2008).

Other shortcomings include the lack of cell-phone users polled as well as the natural variability that occurs in voter opinions months before the election.

To some, however, rejecting all polls seems a little extreme. "I think that's vastly overblown if it's an attempt to discredit virtually all polling because of this issue," said Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. "It rests on a fundamentally correct fact. Absolutely the way you word questions affects the answers that you get. But for anyone to claim there's one right way to ask the question and every other way is flawed, I think is a vast overreach."

In the end, polls can be analyzed after the fact. The truth: Polls done months before an election don't turn out to have been very predictive of real outcomes.

Track record

Though polls have occasionally failed to predict who will win an election, most notably in the 2008 Democratic primary in New Hampshire in which Hillary Clinton won, the polling track record is "very good," according to the Pew Research Center.

This is particularly true for polls taken close to an election. For example, in 2004 the average of several major national polls from the days leading up to the presidential election showed President Bush with a 1.6 percentage point advantage over Sen. John Kerry. Bush ended up winning the election by 2.4 percentage points.

Election polls taken early in a race, during the first quarter of the year prior to the presidential election, have shown a poor track record in predicting the winner, according to a review of polls between 1959 and 2003 by the Pew Research Center.

"Polls conducted early in an election season should be taken as snapshots in time, and obviously cannot capture the impact of the campaign and its events to come," according to Pew analysts.

For instance, a Pew analysis of polling done early in campaigns found that in February 1995, several early readings showed Sen. Bob Dole leading President Clinton by as many as 6 percentage points. Then, 21 months later, Clinton won by 8 percentage points.

"If you take all previous presidential elections, the polls vary a lot over time and they all end up basically where the election results are," said Gary King, a political scientist at Harvard University.

So as the election gets closer the polls all tend to narrow down and point to the right candidate.

"By the time you get to the night before the election that's pretty much what the election results are going to be," he said, adding that political scientists are pretty accurate at forecasting the election outcome at the time of the conventions.

As for why the polls are so variable and possibly inaccurate months and months before the elections, King said, it's "natural variability" in part. "People don't really know who the candidates are yet. There's no reason for them to decide who they're really going to vote for months before the election. They only really have to know by November," King said during a telephone interview.

Missing cell-phone users

Natural variability is just part of the problem. Many Americans are ditching their landlines for cell phones, a trend that can wreak havoc on election polls.

While some polls are starting to include cell-phone users, others aren't.

Surveys conducted by Pew in June, July and September showed that including cell-phone interviews led to results showing more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain.

For instance, the September poll involved more than 2,500 registered voters including nearly 550 individuals reached by cell phone. The combined phone-type results showed 46 percent backed Obama and 44 percent backed McCain. Among just the landline respondents, candidates were tied each with 45 percent support.

The difference between cell-only and landline individuals is age, with the cell-only sample being younger than 30, Pew analysts suggest. Young people as a group, according to Pew, have consistently backed Obama this year.

King sees the cell-phone issue as a big problem.

"There's real reason to worry about that because of the rise in cell phones and non-response," King said, referring to the ability of the polls to predict the public sentiment on the day of polling.

In addition to cell-only individuals, the pollsters don't grab a real random sample of the American public, King said.

"Nine out of ten people that pollsters call don't answer the phone or they can't reach the person," King said. The people who are home and do decide to answer the polling call, he said, are probably not representative of the people who will vote on Election Day.

Who would you vote for today?

Moore calls for polling reforms, including measuring and reporting the percentage of undecided voters, and recognizing bias in question wording and other question features.

Other political scientists disagree about the forced-question issue.

Franklin said research has shown this "forced" type question doesn't skew the results.

"If you predict the answer to that question by your political ideology, your partisanship, how you feel abut the environment, your age, education, the usual suspects, you get the same structure for people who were pushed to give an answer as for people who were not," Franklin told LiveScience.

"If there was a serious flaw to asking the question with this push for how do you lean, then we ought to see polls consistently missing the right answer of the outcome," Franklin said. "We don't see that."

He added that individual polls can be off the mark, but on average, they get it right.

[Findog]

There was nothing wrong with the polls during Palin Mania, but now there's severe problems with methodology. Got it.

[whottt]

Its so funny to listen to people wail about the medias agenda. Either the electorate is smart enough or its not,

Many people don't pay that close of attention to it. 70% of the eligible population is registered to vote by barely over 50% of them actually vote.


A #1 reason I have a problem with the weights.


The Democrats didn't sweep into power in 2006 because of some huge turnout...they swept into power because of a lack of one.



but I didn't hear anyone bitching when the media's agenda included war in Iraq and getting George Bush elected.

I don't know about the Iraq War but the media damn sure didn't have an agenda to get W elected in 2004. That's the most ridiculous statement I have ever heard.

[whottt]

There was nothing wrong with the polls during Palin Mania, but now there's severe problems with methodology. Got it.


False...there was something wrong with the polls during the Palin Mania, they muted the imact she was actually having...actually is having.

And the media is riding shotgun on it.

[Findog]

False...there was something wrong with the polls during the Palin Mania, they muted the imact she was actually having...actually is having.

And the media is riding shotgun on it.

And what do you base that on? Your intuition and gut that the electorate will side with you?

Are you still predicting a McCain victory on November 4th? Would you say he would win if the election were held today?

[whottt]

And what do you base that on? Your intuition and gut that the electorate will side with you?

Voting history. Turn out at speaking appearances, totally unreported rises in Republican activism, television ratings...and oh yeah, the polls when you remove the weights.





Are you still predicting a McCain victory on November 4th?

Yes...but I am not as certain of it as I was, this Senate Bill could potentially hang McCain.

If he votes for all that pork he is going to be instantly discredited, if he doesn't and the market tanks there could be a huge backlash.

Basically he's got to vote against it, due his campaign promises and all the pork inherent in that bill.



Would you say he would win if the election were held today?

Yes.

[whottt]

Dude in my lifetime, only one time has the American Public voted for the wrong guy in the popular vote...and that was Carter/Ford. They usually do get it right...


There's nothing to Obama...except questions.


I know ya'll don't see it...ya'll became the stepford voters long ago.

[whottt]

Hey Findog...there's going to be an anti-Palin protest in Dallas the day after the VP debate. Will you be there?

I think it's a war for Oil protest :tu

[Shastafarian]

Dude in my lifetime, only one time has the American Public voted for the wrong guy in the popular vote...and that was Carter/Ford. They usually do get it right...


There's nothing to Obama...except questions.


I know ya'll don't see it...ya'll became the stepford voters long ago.

Enlighten us. What do you see in John McCain that you like so much?

[Findog]

Hey Findog...there's going to be an anti-Palin protest in Dallas the day after the VP debate. Will you be there?

I think it's a war for Oil protest :tu

Probably not, I'll have to work. At this point, I don't think there's anything left to protest.

[whottt]

Oh yes there will be....the new asshole she tore Joe Biden the night before.

[Findog]

Oh yes there will be....the new asshole she tore Joe Biden the night before.

Biden will be gracious and complimentary in his opening remarks towards her, then he will spend the rest of his time attacking McCain.

[whottt]

SHe gonna take his political doubletalk and stick it up his ass...I've watched her do it.

[Findog]

SHe gonna take his political doubletalk and stick it up his ass...I've watched her do it.

It's too late for that now. Tina Fey has defined her in a way that the debates won't. She can do her attack dog shtick but it won't work. When you're behind like they are, and when voters are shifting towards Obama, negative attacks lose their effectiveness.

Of course Biden will slaughter her on substance, but her job is to show Americans she's competent enough to be Prez if needed. If she spends her time attack Obama and Biden as out of touch, tax and spend liberals, she is wasting her time. Demonstrating competency should be her first priority.

It's a good thing for my side that veep debates do not matter one way or other.

[Findog]

In the first prez debate, Obama needed to show he's ready to be a Commander in Chief. According to polls of undecideds, he did that. McCain needed to show he's in touch with the concerns of working Americans. He didn't do nearly as well.

Palin needs to show she is ready to be Prez. I will be delighted with glee if she does her pitbull with lipstick shtick instead of showing she knows what she's talking about.

[whottt]

It's a good thing for my side that taking facials from Obama is the only thing that matters.

Fixed.

[whottt]

In the first prez debate, Obama needed to show he's ready to be a Commander in Chief. According to polls of undecideds, he did that. McCain needed to show he's in touch with the concerns of working Americans. He didn't do nearly as well.

Palin needs to show she is ready to be Prez. I will be delighted with glee if she does her pitbull with lipstick shtick instead of showing she knows what she's talking about.


She'sll expose Biden as exactly the sort of do nothing politician he actually is that got us into this mess. The sort that dominates Washington...and it's going to reflect badly on Obama.

She's much politically smarter than Joe Biden...I can't believe you think otherwise.

[Findog]

Fixed.

You must have seen today's polls. You seem bitter.

[whottt]

In the first prez debate, Obama needed to show he's ready to be a Commander in Chief. According to polls of undecideds, he did that. McCain needed to show he's in touch with the concerns of working Americans. He didn't do nearly as well.

Palin needs to show she is ready to be Prez. I will be delighted with glee if she does her pitbull with lipstick shtick instead of showing she knows what she's talking about.


McCain isn't some young idealistic punk...that debate was the absolute peak of Obama's performances in thse debates...McCain will go stronger and Obama will grow weaker. McCain didn't use all his bullets in the first debate...which should be obvious.

[Findog]

She'sll expose Biden as exactly the sort of do nothing politician he actually is that got us into this mess.

She's much politically smarter than Joe Biden...I can't believe you think otherwise.

I don't think you really understand what the purpose of these debates are. It's not about who "wins" or who "loses." McCain supporters will always say their candidate won, Obama supporters will say theirs did. It's about shoring up your weaknesses and overcoming the specific doubts voters have about you. Obama understood that in the foreign policy debate, he needed to show he's at least McCain's equal. Palin needs to show she's competent.

[MannyIsGod]

That article brought up nothing new Whottt. We've discussed every one of those issues here.

[Findog]

McCain isn't some young idealistic punk...that debate was the absolute peak of Obama's performances in thse debates...McCain will go stronger and Obama will grow weaker. McCain didn't use all his bullets in the first debate...which should be obvious.

The first debate is always the most watched, and the next two debates are on domestic issues. McCain is in a big hole. This election isn't over yet, but it's really starting to slip away from McCain.

[whottt]

It's too late for that now. Tina Fey has defined her in a way that the debates won't. She can do her attack dog shtick but it won't work. When you're behind like they are, and when voters are shifting towards Obama, negative attacks lose their effectiveness.
.



Dude...the fact that Tina Fey isn't even a regular cast member of Saturday Night Live any longer and has already been called in twice to play her 3 weeks into the new season(one of which was the higherst rated segment of SNL since 2001), should tell you everything you need to know.

[whottt]

The first debate is always the most watched, and the next two debates are on domestic issues. McCain is in a big hole. This election isn't over yet, but it's really starting to slip away from McCain.


Did you know that fewer people watched that debate then watched Bush Kerry 1?

Dots meet Findog, Findog dots :tu

[Findog]

Did you know that fewer people watched that debate then watched Bush Kerry 1?

Dots meet Findog, Findog dots :tu

Yes I did. And I guarantee you anything the second O/M debate will get lower ratings than last Friday's.

[Findog]

Dude...the fact that Tina Fey isn't even a regular cast member of Saturday Night Live any longer and has already been called in twice to play her 3 weeks into the new season(one of which was the higherst rated segment of SNL since 2001), should tell you everything you need to know.

Irrelevant non sequitur

[MannyIsGod]

Its fine to say one or 2 polls is wrong, but when EVERY FUCKING POLL BEING CONDUCTED shows the same thing then I don't want to hear anything about polling being wrong because thats a total crock of unfounded shit. They don't all use the same methodology yet they're consistently coming out with a sizeable lead in this race to Obama.

Its all too easy for people to get hung up on the number of points and that one poll said Obama was up one day by 2 then McCain up by 1 the next day. What people don't realize is that on both of those days the poll showed a tie. Its almost the same way as when people look at a weather forcast. When a weatherman says there is a 30% chance of rain and then it doesn't rain they say OMG HE WAS WRONG. When a poll shows a candidate ahead by 1 and the other candidate wins by 1 they're like OMG THE POLL WAS WRONG.

Thats not the way these things work.

But by that same token, when you see a candidate up for several cycles by 5-8 points thats something worth noting and a very good indicator that tthe candidate is leading in the race by a large margin. While one or 2 polls may be inaccurate and may show results that are not consistent, they are merely outliers and the chances of the entirety of polls being incorrect by such a largin margin is small. VERY small.

I'm a poker player (so is Barack btw, legalize this shit biatch) and while my Aces have about a 17% chance of being cracked by any other pair preflop, I'll take it in and shove my entire stack every single time. Obama is my aces.

BTW, My bet offer is back. If anyone wants to give me 1:1 odds on McCain winning I'll take the bet.

[MannyIsGod]

Dude...the fact that Tina Fey isn't even a regular cast member of Saturday Night Live any longer and has already been called in twice to play her 3 weeks into the new season(one of which was the higherst rated segment of SNL since 2001), should tell you everything you need to know.

[] Vast Media Conspiracy

[x] Shitty VP candidate who says stupid shit with an uncanny likeness to Tina Fey

[whottt]

I don't think you really understand what the purpose of these debates are. It's not about who "wins" or who "loses." McCain supporters will always say their candidate won, Obama supporters will say theirs did. It's about shoring up your weaknesses and overcoming the specific doubts voters have about you. Obama understood that in the foreign policy debate, he needed to show he's at least McCain's equal. Palin needs to show she's competent.



Wrong...those debates define the candidates and a single comment can end the election, regardless of who people think won the overall debate.


Kerry lost the 2004 election on two words: Global Test

[MannyIsGod]

Kerry lost the 2004 election with a few more words than that.

"I voted for it before I voted against it"

[whottt]

[] \

[x] Shitty VP candidate who says stupid shit with an uncanny likeness to Tina Fey




tV5_T6CfHvE&feature=related


:lmao

Your bias is showing.

[MannyIsGod]

He doesn't look like Tina Fey. Your blindness is showing.

[whottt]

tV5_T6CfHvE&feature=related


:lmao

Your bias is showing.

These are not the droids you're looking for[/DarthObamaCamp]

[MannyIsGod]

Not only that, as much as he screws up he can actually give interviews with out a screwup. Thats something Palin has yet to prove.

For awhile I thought this was some expectations game. I thought maybe McCain was trying to set the bar low so that Palin would pull off a Bush at the debates.

But if he was, then its been a huge failure because even if she meets expectations its not enough to counteract the bad press she's already gotten.

[MannyIsGod]

These are not the droids you're looking for[/DarthObamaCamp]

Yeah ok. We're the ones who aren't seeing things the way they are. Ok.

[Findog]

Wrong...those debates define the candidates and a single comment can end the election, regardless of who people think won the overall debate.


Kerry lost the 2004 election on two words: Global Test

Kerry lost due to the principle of wartime incumbency. He FUCKING DESTROYED Bush in those debates and IT DID NOT MATTER.

[whottt]

Its fine to say one or 2 polls is wrong, but when EVERY FUCKING POLL BEING CONDUCTED shows the same thing then I don't want to hear anything about polling being wrong because thats a total crock of unfounded shit. They don't all use the same methodology yet they're consistently coming out with a sizeable lead in this race to Obama.


Yeah those results are the A#1 tip to me that the polls aren't accurate. I know they're showing Obama leading in some states he won't win in the GE. I know for a fact they're showing that.





Its all too easy for people to get hung up on the number of points and that one poll said Obama was up one day by 2 then McCain up by 1 the next day. What people don't realize is that on both of those days the poll showed a tie. Its almost the same way as when people look at a weather forcast. When a weatherman says there is a 30% chance of rain and then it doesn't rain they say OMG HE WAS WRONG. When a poll shows a candidate ahead by 1 and the other candidate wins by 1 they're like OMG THE POLL WAS WRONG.

Thats not the way these things work.

But by that same token, when you see a candidate up for several cycles by 5-8 points thats something worth noting and a very good indicator that tthe candidate is leading in the race by a large margin. While one or 2 polls may be inaccurate and may show results that are not consistent, they are merely outliers and the chances of the entirety of polls being incorrect by such a largin margin is small. VERY small.

I'm a poker player (so is Barack btw, legalize this shit biatch) and while my Aces have about a 17% chance of being cracked by any other pair preflop, I'll take it in and shove my entire stack every single time. Obama is my aces.

BTW, My bet offer is back. If anyone wants to give me 1:1 odds on McCain winning I'll take the bet.


You want my advice? Never play the PCT's on a stacked deck:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[whottt]

Not only that, as much as he screws up he can actually give interviews with out a screwup. Thats something Palin has yet to prove.


I can honestly say Palin does the best interviews of any politcian I've ever seen...and the media thinks that too, which is why they are so hostile in their intervies and have to edit them.

PS: After looking at all those great Presidential Campaigns by Biden I can see where you're coming from...he ought to be called the great connector.





For awhile I thought this was some expectations game. I thought maybe McCain was trying to set the bar low so that Palin would pull off a Bush at the debates.

First impression always the best impression...that's exactly what McCain is doing.

If you think this woman is scared...you are mistaken.

[Findog]

I can honestly say Palin does the best interviews of any politcian I've ever seen...and the media thinks that too, which is they are so hostile in their intervies and have to edit them.

Oh you are such a troll! I'm starting to believe that whottt is actually an Obama supporter, and gets his rocks off pretending otherwise. I used to pretend to be a right-winger myself on Plastic.

[whottt]

Have you watched her debate?


She's got chunks of guys like Joe Biden in her stool. And I mean guys exactly like him...multiple term Senators.

These guys are so detatched from ther general public they might as well live on a different planet.

[Findog]

Have you watched her debate?


She's got chunks of guys like Joe Biden in her stool. And I mean guys exactly like him...multiple term Senators.

Alaska debates centered on Alaskan issues. And like I said, veep debates won't matter one way or the other. She can probably do better than the low expectations that have been set for her, but she needs to show she's competent and well-versed in issues and policy.

[Bartleby]

I can honestly say Palin does the best interviews of any politcian I've ever seen...and the media thinks that too, which is why they are so hostile in their intervies and have to edit them.

Wow. Just . . . wow.

Your infatuation with that woman is morbidly fascinating.

[Findog]

Biden is gonna destroy her tomorrow:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/1/19123/8946/293/617028

[ElNono]

With a bit of luck, the election ends tomorrow...

[dg7md]

During Obama's high, and the fact there is early voting going on in crucial states, this is a good sign for us.

[Findog]

Wow. Just . . . wow.

Your infatuation with that woman is morbidly fascinating.

I used to post a lot on this discussion board called plastic:

www.plastic.com

The site's user base skews liberal, and a lot of times it's just liberals in a circle jerk patting each other on the back. Not as bad as dailykos, since opposing viewpoints are welcome, and there are quite a few libertarians that post there, but the discussions can get boring. I signed up an alternate handle and began posing as a right-wing republican just to liven things up. After that post by whottt, I strongly suspect that's what he's doing here.

[Findog]

Joe Biden will do just fine:


Katie Couric: Why do you think Roe v. Wade was a good decision?

Joe Biden: Because it's as close to a consensus that can exist in a society as heterogeneous as ours. What does it say? It says in the first three months that decision should be left to the woman. And the second three months, where Roe v. Wade says, well then the state, the government has a role, along with the women's health, they have a right to have some impact on that. And the third three months they say the weight of the government's input is on the fetus being carried.

And so that's sort of reflected as close anybody is ever going to get in this heterogeneous, this multicultural society of religious people as to some sort of, not consensus, but as close it gets.

I think the liberty clause of the 14th Amendment ... offers a right to privacy. Now that's one of the big debates that I have with my conservative scholar friend, that they say, you know, unless a right is enumerated - unless it's actually, unless uses the word "privacy" in the Constitution - then no such "constitutional right" exists. Well, I think people have an inherent right.

Couric: Are there Supreme Court decisions you disagree with?

Biden: You know, I'm the guy who wrote the Violence Against Women Act. And I said that every woman in America, if they are beaten and abused by a man, should be able to take that person to court - meaning you should be able to go to federal court and sue in federal court the man who abused you if you can prove that abuse. But they said, "no, that a woman, there's no federal jurisdiction." And I held, they acknowledged, I held about 1,000 hours of hearings proving that there's an effect in interstate commerce.
Women who are abused and beaten and beaten are women who are not able to be in the work force. And the Supreme Court said, "well, there is an impact on commerce, but this is federalizing a private crime and we're not going to allow it." I think the Supreme Court was wrong about that decision.


Here's Bible Spice:


Couric Why, in your view, is Roe v. Wade a bad decision?

Sarah Palin: I think it should be a states issue not a federal government-mandated, mandating yes or no on such an important issue. I'm, in that sense, a federalist, where I believe that states should have more say in the laws of their lands and individual areas. Now, foundationally, also, though, it's no secret that I'm pro-life that I believe in a culture of life is very important for this country. Personally that's what I would like to see, um, further embraced by America.

Couric: Do you think there's an inherent right to privacy in the Constitution?

Palin: I do. Yeah, I do.

Couric: The cornerstone of Roe v. Wade.

Palin: I do. And I believe that individual states can best handle what the people within the different constituencies in the 50 states would like to see their will ushered in an issue like that.

Couric: What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?

Palin: Well, let's see. There's, of course in the great history of America there have been rulings, that's never going to be absolute consensus by every American. And there are those issues, again, like Roe v. Wade, where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So you know, going through the history of America, there would be others but ...

Couric: Can you think of any?

Palin: Well, I could think of ... any again, that could be best dealt with on a more local level. Maybe I would take issue with. But, you know, as mayor, and then as governor and even as a vice president, if I'm so privileged to serve, wouldn't be in a position of changing those things but in supporting the law of the land as it reads today.

[whottt]

1. 62,040,610 That's the largest number of votes ever received by a Presidential Candidate. That was in 2004, and he is easily one of the most unlikeable, untrusted, polarizing Presidents in history. That was pure Patriotism producing those numbers right there....there was no other reason to vote for him.

2. 59,028,444 That's second largest number of votes ever produced by a Presidential Candidate before. That was also in 2004. That was the most ever to vote for a Democratic Presidential Candidate by some 9 million votes. That was what they could do against a guy who had zero charisma who Americans had to hold their nose and vote for, a guy who had lost the popular vote 4 years earlier.


3. 54,455,472 That's the 3rd most votes ever received by a Presidential Candidate. That's the number of voters that turned out the last time the Republicans had a likeable canidate...

24 years ago. In 1984.



America is not a leftwing country...and it's easier to vote for McCain than it was for Bush. Much much easier. The moderate always wins the popular vote.



Poll that.

[ElNono]

1. 62,040,610 That's the largest number of votes ever received by a Presidential Candidate. That was in 2004, and he is easily one of the most unlikeable, untrusted, polarizing Presidents in history. That was pure Patriotism producing those numbers right there....there was no other reason to vote for him.

2. 59,028,444 That's second largest number of votes ever produced by a Presidential Candidate before. That was also in 2004. That was the most ever to vote for a Democratic Presidential Candidate by some 9 million votes. That was what they could do against a guy who had zero charisma who Americans had to hold their nose and vote for.


3. 54,455,472] That's the 3rd most votes ever received by a Presidential Candidate. That's the number of voters that turned out the last time the Republicans had a likeable canidate...

24 years ago.



America is not a leftwing country...and it's easier to vote for McCain than it was for Bush. Much much easier.

Not after 8 years of Bush, the unpopular war, and the about-to-be-passed bailout...

[Findog]

^ Population has been increasing in this country. Thank you for that trenchant analysis whottt

[jman3000]

that reagan win was a huge landslide... so it's a little misleading saying that so many people voted for him... hardly anybody voted for the other guy.

[Findog]

that reagan win was a huge landslide... so it's a little misleading saying that so many people voted for him... hardly anybody voted for the other guy.

Not to mention that the population in this country has increased a lot since 1984.

[whottt]

^ Population has been increasing in this country.

It sure has....it's also older than it's ever been before. The largest segment of Americans. The largest voting demographic. And the Republicans are the party this Demographic tends to jump to after a certain age. The segment that is and remains the most conservative and patriotic segment of the voting populace. The segment which is clearly more in McCain's favor than Obama's...by bigger number than Bush had an advantage over Kerry.

And you guys are running on a "One Heartbeat Away from the Presidency" platform.


Simply brilliant.




Thank you for that trenchant analysis whottt

You're welcome...frankly I am surprised no one attacked one of the elections I cited. There is a clear and obvious point in the Democrats favor and against the Republicans in this election using the election results I cited..but sigh, those who get their marching orders from the mass media, the largest corporations in the world, and the Daily Kos, lack the insight to attack it. A pity I wasted time figuring out out the counter point in advance...I was obviously giving too much credit.

[Findog]

It sure has....it's also older than it's ever been before. The largest segment of Americans. The largest voting Demographic. The segment that is and remains the most conservative and patriotic segment of the voting populace.

And you guys are running on a "One Heartbeat Away from the Presidency" platform.


Simply brilliant.



Older voters aren't swinging anything for McCain. He's losing right now and the fault line is breaking for Obama. Maybe he can arrest that, but at some point the RNC is going to decide to invest money in down-ballot races and salvage some losses. Older support for McCain is already reflected in the polls. Racism against Obama is already reflected in the polls. Right now, it's not enough.

[whottt]

By the way Findog...since Shastafarian and El Nono feel compelled to post in this thread and there is zero chance of one of them getting a response from me...you might want to at least acknowledge your Komerades.

[Shastafarian]

By the way Findog...since Shastafarian and El Nono feel compelled to post in this thread and there is zero chance of one of them getting a response from me...you might want to at least acknowledge your Komerades.
:lol

I'm glad I'm getting to you enough for you to call me out so readily. Thanks.

[whottt]

Older voters aren't swinging anything for McCain. He's losing right now and the fault line is breaking for Obama. Maybe he can arrest that, but at some point the RNC is going to decide to invest money in down-ballot races and salvage some losses. Older support for McCain is already reflected in the polls. Racism against Obama is already reflected in the polls. Right now, it's not enough.


If you are truly analyzing those factors in an objective and common sensical fashion...then you should realize exactly why I am predicting a McCain landslide.

If you are truly analyzing those numbers in an objective and common sensical fashion the obvious conclusion is that the Democrats are losing voters by the boatload...career Democrats, that have never voted Republican before...while the Republicans are energized like they haven't been in decades. While the Democrats are not making gains in those areas...they are making gains in youth, African Americans and Hispanics.


Those swings indicate a Republican Landslide...

The demographic numbers don't add up to the poll results.

The weights.
Are off.

[jman3000]

but don't hispanics account for almost half of all US population growth?

if youre saying that dems are gaining ground with hispanics... id imagine that's a pretty large ass bloc.

[Findog]

If you are truly analyzing those factors in an objective and common sensical fashion...then you should realize exactly why I am predicting a McCain landslide.

If you are truly analyzing those numbers in an objective and common sensical fashion the obvious conclusion is that the Democrats are losing voters by the boatload...career Democrats, that have never voted Republican before...while the Republicans are energized like they haven't been in decades. While the Democrats are not making gains in those areas...they are making gains in youth, African Americans and Hispanics.


Those swings indicate a Republican Landslide...

The demographic numbers don't add up to the poll results.

The weights.
Are off.

I truly don't know what to say. The same polling groups that predicted a Bush win in 2004 are now showing Obama opening up and expanding his lead outside of the margin of error, and I'm supposed to trust your gut instinct about what the electorate will do. We don't even have a common base of facts upon which to base a discussion.

What do you make of the fact that McCain is beginning to hemorrhage support in the polls? Pollsters bank their money and their reps on trying to get it right. Are you suggesting Rasmussen is in the tank for Obama? Evangelical Christian Steve Rasmussen?

[whottt]

but don't hispanics account for almost half of all US population growth?

Yeap...and when they voted they voted overwhelmingly in favor of Hillary Clinton...against Obama.




if youre saying that dems are gaining ground with hispanics... id imagine that's a pretty large ass bloc.

I think those poll weights are off as well. Hispanics are lifestyle conservatives.


I've got two Mexican American Step Brothers and Mexican American Step Sister, a Mexican American Step Mom, two Great Nephews that have dual Mexico America citizenship, and a Mexican National Newphew(in law?) ...and there is a better chance of McCain voting for Obama than there is any one of them. I'm the liberal out of this grouping.


Furthermore...my own personal observation and experience...you let me know the next time you see an African American working in a Mexican or Asian Food restaurant.

[jman3000]

Furthermore...my own personal observation and experience...you let me know the next time you see an African American working in a Mexican or Asian Food restaurant.

you must have never been to memphis :lol

[Shastafarian]

Furthermore...my own personal observation and experience...you let me know the next time you see an African American working in a Mexican or Asian Food restaurant.

huh?

[jman3000]

mexican's and asians are really really really really racist.

[whottt]

you must have never been to memphis :lol



And yet McCain has one of his largest leads in Tennessee...

[Shastafarian]

mexican's and asians are really really really really racist.

I'm glad whottt doesn't like to generalize.

[jman3000]

and no hyberbole was intended. asian's are just really xenophobic and blacks represent the xenoist part of that phobia and mexicans... i cant really explain that one myself. i guess they just tend to believe the stereotypes.

my uncle used to say that all blacks are untrustable... but obviously through life experiences ive found that not true.

[whottt]

mexican's and asians are really really really really racist.

I can't speak for everyone...I just know based on my own personal experiences and seeing up close the hiring practices in the restaurant business from many years ago....that hasn't changed much based on my impression when I go into a restaurant like that. A small sampling to be sure....but we'll see what happens.

[jman3000]

And yet McCain has one of his largest leads in Tennessee...

im not saying anything... just stating that in memphis, from what i say, african americans worked freaking everywhere.

and he's gonna win TN because.. it's well... TN... even though some areas have high black populations... it's still predominatly white... maybe not even white, but redneck.

[whottt]

Matt Martinez who owned Matt's El Rancho in Austin ripped the application from a black guy out of my hand when I was going to turn it in. Hell I was in the first class of white guys to ever work for him...and this was in the late 80's.

[ChumpDumper]

And yet McCain has one of his largest leads in Tennessee...Found a poll you agree with now?

[whottt]

It sucks that it's done. I lost respect for both of my employers that did it, and felt genuinely sorry for the guys that were trying to get work. It was an extremely disappointing feeling seeing it done, and it made me not want to work at both of those places. I'm not going to say it's the reason I quit because it wasn't, at least not the main reason. I needed money and that trumped any racial crusades I might have been inclined to take on. But there was a weight to working there after those experiences...and I never enjoyed the conversations with my employers as much as I had previously. I personally felt like a racist in the true sense of the word, not the politicized definition, just for working there.

I don't think America is ready to elect a black man President...but it's a cultural thing not a just because he's black.


It's that he's black, and his middle name is Hussein, and he's a leftist Democrat and goes to a church that says GD America. More importantly...he's got a militant following(the bulk of which seem to be young white males ironically enough) that plays exactly on the Angry Black Man stereotype that repels many Americans. And he doesn't have a unifying message...and even if he does, the media is playing the race card on his behalf. That is not how you break that barrier...that is how you make it bigger.


If that sort of thing worked Jesse Jackson would have been a Presidential Nominee long ago. He tried it.

You break that barrier by finding common ground, not difference...

IOW, he needs to be a staunch Pro-American Conservative to pull this one off...


Like...oh, Martin Luther King was.


The same way Sarah Palin is going to pull it off where Hillary Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro failed.


David Robinson could do it in a heartbeat, Bill Cosby could pull it off....Drob IMO would have the same sort of impact Palin is having with the Republicans. I know flat out white supremacist racists that are in love with David Robinson because of his Pro-American background and the way he carries himself.


Ironically enough...Obama is about as black as John Kerry is. He's half white, he was raised by white people, and he can act white with the best of them...but he got the wrong connections, the wrong political inclination, and he's going for it too soon for it to work IMO.


There are white male Democrats that are doing nothing but trumpeting Obama's greatness that are going to vote against him when it comes time to vote IMO, they're doing it to compensate for their inner racist feelings, to prove to themseves and others they aren't racists...that's the way white guilt works.

[Crookshanks]

Whott's point about racism among minorities is a valid one. I didn't realize how much blacks and mexicans dislike each other until I moved back to Michigan and my children attended a school where the blacks were bussed in. My kid's dad is part mexican and my 2nd son looked hispanic. He had a terrible time in school - the black kids picked on him all the time - and only because he looked mexican.

So it will be quite interesting to see how this all plays out in November.

[ElNono]

If you are truly analyzing those factors in an objective and common sensical fashion...then you should realize exactly why I am predicting a McCain landslide.

If you are truly analyzing those numbers in an objective and common sensical fashion the obvious conclusion is that the Democrats are losing voters by the boatload...career Democrats, that have never voted Republican before...while the Republicans are energized like they haven't been in decades. While the Democrats are not making gains in those areas...they are making gains in youth, African Americans and Hispanics.


Those swings indicate a Republican Landslide...

The demographic numbers don't add up to the poll results.

The weights.
Are off.

This thread needs to be bookmarked. This post specifically...

[whottt]

All races are racist IME. And it's taught...it's not a natural inclination. You go look at the way really young kids interact with each other and they don't have any concept of it. Then it starts...friends relatives start hammering it into their heads and they either embrace it for the rest of of their lives or then they hit the guilt phase and change...and then finally once they've had enough experiences and met enough people some of them learn to look beyond the stereotypes as well as the guilt.

That's the way it worked for me at least anyway.


Racism, sexism, homophobia, even social and economic stratification...these concepts don't exist around cultures whose main orientation is surviving...they don't have the luxury of drawing lines.


Yes it exists...no it's not our nature for it to exist...any more than it is in the nature of a black dog or a white dog. It's a negative aspect of the bio cultural evolution of human beings, that arose with our ability to produce surplus and industrialized agriculture...and not our natural instinct.

[whottt]

Found a poll you agree with now?

Care to add anything insightful to the discussion or are you just going to sit in the peanut gallery and make snide comments?(IE: the usual)

[JoeChalupa]

Obama is proving he is above race.

[Crookshanks]

Obama is proving he is above race.
Oh really? Let's see - he's half white and half black - and yet which race does he claim to be? The one that's gotten him more advantages in life!

I do have to wonder what his mother and her family thinks of him - he pretty much denies being white.

[whottt]

Obama is proving he is above race.

It doesn't matter what Obama himself is or isn't above....

[Bartleby]

Oh really? Let's see - he's half white and half black - and yet which race does he claim to be? The one that's gotten him more advantages in life!

I do have to wonder what his mother and her family thinks of him - he pretty much denies being white.

Should he try to "pass" as white? Do you think it would work?

And, BTW, his mother isn't alive, so what she thinks is completely irrelevant.

[Crookshanks]

Should he try to "pass" as white? Do you think it would work?

And, BTW, his mother isn't alive, so what she thinks is completely irrelevant.
What he should've done is say I'm neither black nor white, but the best of both my parents; and as such, I can better represent all of America.

I still wouldn't have voted for him - but I would've had a little more respect. Instead - he plays the race card because it gets him further in life.

I didn't know his mother wasn't still alive - but still, it would be interesting to know what the white side of his family thinks.

[MannyIsGod]

I can't take Whottt seriously anymore. Sorry Whottt, but I just can't.

[whottt]

I didn't know his mother wasn't still alive - but still, it would be interesting to know what the white side of his family thinks.


His mama deserted him and his grandparents took a while to get used to him when he was born.


Interesting fact...Obama pretty much despises white women that like black men...he thinks they're racists.

Must have something to do with his Mom.

[PixelPusher]

His mama deserted him and his grandparents took a while to get used to him when he was born.


Interesting fact...Obama pretty much despises white women that like black men...he thinks they're racists.

Must have something to do with his Mom.

link?

[Shastafarian]

His mama deserted him and his grandparents took a while to get used to him when he was born.


Interesting fact...Obama pretty much despises white women that like black men...he thinks they're racists.

Must have something to do with his Mom.

Proof?

[whottt]

I can't take Whottt seriously anymore. Sorry Whottt, but I just can't.Just be sure to show up on election day...I am more certain McCain is going to win than I was W.

[Bartleby]

What he should've done is say I'm neither black nor white, but the best of both my parents; and as such, I can better represent all of America.

Yeah, he should have said something like that.


I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.

It’s a story that hasn’t made me the most conventional candidate. But it is a story that has seared into my genetic makeup the idea that this nation is more than the sum of its parts – that out of many, we are truly one.

[whottt]

link?


Was something I read at the Hillary Clinton Forums(and yes they had evidence to back it up or I wouldn't have called it a fact)...I'm not a member there so I can't search their forums but if you want to join and search be my guest. I'm not lying.


Doesn't make any sense when you first hear it, but then when you think about his Mom basically deserting him you can start to see why he might feel that way. He was raised by whites and talks more like them than he does a black guy...yet he pretty much rejects that aspect of his heritage and his disdain for it slips out every once in a whole(like the quote about his Grandma from a while back)...

And there's absolutely no doubt he grew up cast out of both worlds, I mean he his Dad deserted him too...he belonged to no world, probably in large part due to his parents interractial marrige...I bet you he doesn't fee like it was a blessing....I bet you he feels it was the cause of nearly every difficulty and hardship in his life.

[PixelPusher]

Yeah, he should have said something like that.

Yeah, because he's never talked about being half-white...ever!!!!

3mX_j89SoSQ

[Bartleby]

Was something I read at the Hillary Clinton Forums(and yes they had evidence to back it up or I wouldn't have called it a fact)...I'm not a member there so I can't search their forums but if you want to join and search be my guest. I'm not lying.

:lmao

That's almost sig worthy.

[ElNono]

Was something I read at the Hillary Clinton Forums(and yes they had evidence to back it up or I wouldn't have called it a fact)...I'm not a member there so I can't search their forums but if you want to join and search be my guest. I'm not lying.

Sure you wouldn't...:lmao

[PixelPusher]

Was something I read at the Hillary Clinton Forums(and yes they had evidence to back it up or I wouldn't have called it a fact)...I'm not a member there so I can't search their forums but if you want to join and search be my guest. I'm not lying.

Oh, I believe you heard about it or read about it somewhere. There's only so much bullshit you can pull out of your own ass; it makes sense you'd have to borrow other people's bullshit to help fill up your volumes of "War and Peace" sized posts.

[whottt]

Oh, I believe you heard about it or read about it somewhere. There's only so much bullshit you can pull out of your own ass; it makes sense you'd have to borrow other people's bullshit to help fill up your the volumes of "War and Peace" sized posts.


Idiot.


BTW, don't ask for me a link again...you aren't worth responding to on that request...you're just an ignoran prick about it.

Go fuck yourself.

[Shastafarian]

Idiot.


BTW, don't ask for me a link again...you aren't worth responding to on that request...you're just an ignoran prick about it.

Go fuck yourself.

:lol

What are you gonna do if he asks you for a link again? I'm sittin' on the edge of my seat to hear this one.

[PixelPusher]

Idiot.

You know, I hesitated asking for a link, because when it comes down to it, I and everyone else here could ask for a link for every other piece of bullshit, heresay, gossip, or flights of imagination post you put forth as fact...but it was worth it.

A fucking Hillary PUMA blog.

:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

Just be sure to show up on election day...I am more certain McCain is going to win than I was W.

If you're that certain then you should take me up on the bet. Or any bet for that matter.

And when have you known me to not show up when I was wrong? I'm always there to eat my crow.

[ElNono]

I'm formally announcing the induction of PixelPusher on my ignore list. I just wanted to make sure everybody knew about this, because I'm really important, and I know most of you cannot wait to know who makes it or not in my ignore list.

In the meantime I'll keep jacking off to a Sarah Palin poster, while McCain keeps on increasing his lead amongst black voters. This is a fact that's not currently being picked up by polls, but the landslide effect we're going to have next month is quite evident to those who know where to look.

And please, if you're going to bitch about this post, save it. I only discuss facts here, not made up shit from some Hillary Clinton blog post or something...


:rolleyes

[whottt]

If you're that certain then you should take me up on the bet. Or any bet for that matter.

And when have you known me to not show up when I was wrong? I'm always there to eat my crow.

:lmao you already showed me you have no conviction behind your vote. Besides...I don't have the money to spare if I lose. And there's always a chance you will lose a bet...if there weren't you wouldn't be able to bet on it.

Beyond that I've made one bet with a ST'er and he still hasn't paid me.


I'll just say I know in my gut McCain is going to win and leave it at that.

[whottt]

You know, I hesitated asking for a link, because when it comes down to it, I and everyone else here could ask for a link for every other piece of bullshit, heresay, gossip, or flights of imagination post you put forth as fact...but it was worth it.

A fucking Hillary PUMA blog.

:lmao


Yeap Puma..as in a large group of lifelong Democrats that won't be voting Democrat in this election.

[ElNono]

Yeap Puma..as in a large group of lifelong Democrats that won't be voting Democrat in this election.

link? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

KTkqosRiyYo

:lmao

Pay special attention to the man in the back who's wife puts him in place.

:lmao @ "It's split"

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao you already showed me you have no conviction behind your vote. Besides...I don't have the money to spare if I lose. And there's always a chance you will lose a bet...if there weren't you wouldn't be able to bet on it.

Beyond that I've made one bet with a ST'er and he still hasn't paid me.


I'll just say I know in my gut McCain is going to win and leave it at that.

Thats such shit Whottt. Thats like saying I don't believe ABC stock is the best play in the market simply because I also invest in XYZ corp. Don't twist my smart handling of gambling money to a lack of conviction. Its not like my vote is the ultimate decider in things, there are tons of stupid people out there who voted for Bush (Yes, I'm talking about you - oh snap) and they get an equal say in this election.

[whottt]

:lmao . I've got no problem with you hedging your bet...in fact I'm impressed. My problem is you asking me to vote on blind faith to prove my belief while you've got a hedge totally in your favor.

If I was prone to taking those kinds of deals, I'd probably believe the results of the polls. :lmao

[whottt]

Alright Manny...I've been thinking about a bet...I'll bet that Palin deals Biden a royal asswhipping tomorrow night.

We can make it for a sig...

Orrrrrrrrrrrrr:

If she wins you vote for McCain. If she loses I'll vote for Obama.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao . I've got no problem with you hedging your bet...in fact I'm impressed. My problem is you asking me to vote on blind faith to prove my belief while you've got a hedge totally in your favor.

If I was prone to taking those kinds of deals, I'd probably believe the results of the polls. :lmao

Gotcha. Its too subjective about tomorrow night. How do you know who wins?

[MannyIsGod]

And under no circumstances am I betting my vote.

[whottt]

Hmmm...that's a good question.

We could find an unbiased judge that we both agree on.

[baseline bum]

And under no circumstances am I betting my vote.

If you guys are both Texas voters the vote doesn't mean shit anyways.

[whottt]

I already got Chumps vote...somehow I don't think Chump's going to do it...call it a hunch.

[MannyIsGod]

If you guys are both Texas voters the vote doesn't mean shit anyways.

My vote means a great deal to me this time around.

[MannyIsGod]

I already got Chumps vote...somehow I don't think Chump's going to do it...call it a hunch.

If you can find a totally impartial person who is going to watch it and make up their mind, then I might do it. I prefer to bet on tangible results though.

[whottt]

If you can find a totally impartial person who is going to watch it and make up their mind, then I might do it. I prefer to bet on tangible results though.


Ok I suggest we go by the Fox News Online Poll :angel

[jman3000]

how adorable.

[MannyIsGod]

Ok I suggest we go by the Fox News Online Poll :angel


:lmao

[whottt]

But see that's the way I feel about the other polls...

There's got to be someone we would both trust to judge on the forum.


How about you pick someone that is apolitical that you've gotten into a lot of bitter fights with...I've gotten into bitter fights with everyone so it shouldn't be too hard to find a match.

[whottt]

Has to be someone that doesn't give a shit if we like them or not....


You'd be a good juge if you weren't on the other end of the bet.

[MannyIsGod]

I nominate Joe Chalupa. :lmao

No no - I don't know who to pick. If Timvp is going to watch the debate I would probably go with him.

[whottt]

No no - I don't know who to pick. If Timvp is going to watch the debate I would probably go with him.


Not a chance in hell on timvp...I've got too many ownings in on him, while he's never gotten a clear shot to his satisfaction on me. I know...when I play him in fantasy sports he goes insane on me.

[whottt]

Hmmm, what about Angel Luv?

[MannyIsGod]

Speaking of fantasy sports motherfucker, stop handing out free wins.

I dunno man, everyone in here has a lean.

[MannyIsGod]

No way in hell I'm going with Angel Luv - I want someone who can actually understand what is going on. No offense, Veronica.

[whottt]

Hmmm...on second thought, timvp might work...he does do a pretty good job when he's commish. I have to admit...he's actually ruled aginst himself as commish.

Let me think about it...

[whottt]

Speaking of fantasy sports motherfucker, stop handing out free wins.

I dunno man, everyone in here has a lean.


I got voted out of the league...did anyone look at my freaking team? It sucked ass. It wasn't that I was tanking...I just wasn't enthused enough to pay attention. I always use the waiver wire to improve my team, and you guys raided that mofo after I didn't have any draft picks.

[whottt]

base might be a good choice...he's definitely a lib and he voted against Obama in the first debate...my only reservation with him is that he has shown signs of Palin derangement syndrome.

[MannyIsGod]

I got voted out of the league...did anyone look at my freaking team? It sucked ass. It wasn't that I was tanking...I just wasn't enthused enough to pay attention. I always use the waiver wire to improve my team, and you guys raided that mofo after I didn't have any draft picks.


Your team wasn't THAT bad. And yeah, the leauge is very active. I've not been able to pick up most of my waiver selections because other people have had higher priority than me almost every week.

[Cry Havoc]

I dunno man, everyone in here has a lean.

I think DarkReign has remained pretty neutral throughout, and he's one of the most intelligent posters on the forums.

[whottt]

I think DarkReign has remained pretty neutral throughout, and he's one of the most intelligent posters on the forums.


Horseshit...when that dude first got on this forum he said he was a conservative and I have never seen anything from him but left leaning statements.

[florige]

Man, this shit is totally coming apart for McCain.....



http://www.electoral-vote.com/ :wow



They had better have one hell of an October surprise or this thing won't be close at all.

[Findog]

If you guys are both Texas voters the vote doesn't mean shit anyways.

I still want to be a part of Obama's coalition. It means a lot to me to be able to say I cast a vote for him. I've donated money and I'm going to phonebank for him.

[florige]

Hmmm...that's a good question.

We could find an unbiased judge that we both agree on.


What about Boutons? He seems to bash both candidates pretty equally.....:lol

[Findog]

What about Boutons? He seems to bash both candidates pretty equally.....:lol

I think you're thinking of cool hand.

[florige]

I think you're thinking of cool hand.



:lol, yeah him too. But with Boutons he always mentions McCain as McSenile, and Barack as Hussein, so thats why I mentioned him. I thought he was a conservative. Could be wrong though.

[101A]

Last night I was at a lecture with Mary Matalin and James Carville; both predicted an Obama win, but BOTH said the internals were still very shaky for him, and and that ALL conventional wisdom should be tossed out for this election. They said that there was too much to cover, and it would get boring, but that nothing about this election follows the logic of other's at all.

They both said that the polls this time could say one thing, and the actual election could go different; and it wouldn't surprise THEM.

Also, Carville gave a very rousing speach at the end - saying, basically, that as bad as things look right now; it ain't near as bad as it has been - cited 1862 as an example. Said the U.S. always comes through crisis stronger than before; that we will eventually roll up our sleeves, and get it done. The two together on stage are pretty much non-partisan political evaluators; and are damned funny.

Also, several people stood up to ask questions, tried to play "gotcha" with the pros...from both sides. Suffice it to say; don't try this at home. All such students AND Professors were sent back to their chairs appropriately embarassed.

[01.20.09]

The race is much closer than the polls indicate and anything can happen from now until election day. Tonight could very well be the jump start that McCain needs and needs desperately.

[2centsworth]

Can you guys say LANDSLIDE!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

time to rid ourselves of stench.

[florige]

Can you guys say LANDSLIDE!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

time to rid ourselves of stench.




Obama? What did I miss? :lol:wow

[florige]

The race is much closer than the polls indicate and anything can happen from now until election day. Tonight could very well be the jump start that McCain needs and needs desperately.




The one thing McCain supporters/Republicans should be worried about is that now some of these polls are starting to fall outside the margin or error for McCain. But anything is possible.

[101A]

The one thing McCain supporters/Republicans should be worried about is that now some of these polls are starting to fall outside the margin or error for McCain. But anything is possible.


I don't even give a shit about the presidential race; that has always been a distant long shot.

I worry about the Senate. Need 41 seats.

[Bartleby]

Last night I was at a lecture with Mary Matalin and James Carville; both predicted an Obama win, but BOTH said the internals were still very shaky for him, and and that ALL conventional wisdom should be tossed out for this election. They said that there was too much to cover, and it would get boring, but that nothing about this election follows the logic of other's at all.

They both said that the polls this time could say one thing, and the actual election could go different; and it wouldn't surprise THEM.

Although I suspect both of them are pulling for McCain, I don't doubt this assessment for a minute. As bad as things look for McCain right now, he still has a good chance if he can run the table on the handful of swing states still in play, beating Obama even while losing the popular vote by several percentage points.

[MannyIsGod]

I still want to be a part of Obama's coalition. It means a lot to me to be able to say I cast a vote for him. I've donated money and I'm going to phonebank for him.

:tu

I'm on my way to NM or CO in the coming weeks. I don't know if I'll phone bank for him, but I definitely plan on canvassing as well for him here in SA. Its a lost cause, but its important to me.

[MannyIsGod]

Although I suspect both of them are pulling for McCain, I don't doubt this assessment for a minute. As bad as things look for McCain right now, he still has a good chance if he can run the table on the handful of swing states still in play, beating Obama even while losing the popular vote by several percentage points.

You think James Carville is pulling for McCain? I'm not sure you know who James Carville is.

[Bartleby]

You think James Carville is pulling for McCain? I'm not sure you know who James Carville is.

I know exactly who he is (and what his wife does), but I think his ties to the Clintons are still very strong.

[2centsworth]

Originally Posted by Findog http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/Style_Templates/DefaultStyle/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2802009#post2802009)

I still want to be a part of Obama's coalition. It means a lot to me to be able to say I cast a vote for him. I've donated money and I'm going to phonebank for him.

i hope the fact he's black has little to nothing to do with that. otherwise, take a step back and do some thinking.

[Findog]

:tu

I'm on my way to NM or CO in the coming weeks. I don't know if I'll phone bank for him, but I definitely plan on canvassing as well for him here in SA. Its a lost cause, but its important to me.

Have they contacted you about Drive for Change? I signed up for it and nobody will call me back.

[Findog]

i hope the fact he's black has little to nothing to do with that. otherwise, take a step back and do some thinking.

It has everything to do with the past 8 years. Breaking the color barrier is just icing on the cake.

[MannyIsGod]

Have they contacted you about Drive for Change? I signed up for it and nobody will call me back.

Yeah I got 2 calls a couple of nights ago. One from a NM office and another from the SA office. Spoke with them last night and I need to attend one of the camps then I'm good to go. Just contact your local campaign HQ and go from there. Waiting for them to call you is a lost cause, IMO.

[MannyIsGod]

Another poll out today showing McCain behind in NC. I'll tell you this, if NC is going blue then McCain has absolutely no shot because there is no way he wins VA or PA in that scenario and I'm not really thinking he wins OH if NC is blue.

[Bartleby]

And the RCP average shows Obama up by 3 points in Florida.

[jman3000]

Another poll out today showing McCain behind in NC. I'll tell you this, if NC is going blue then McCain has absolutely no shot because there is no way he wins VA or PA in that scenario and I'm not really thinking he wins OH if NC is blue.

pfffffttt... too bad he's not even a US citizen and isnt eligible to be in this race.

fuck.. dont you read any of whottt's threads?

[whottt]

Holy shit...more weighted than I thought:


http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2008/10/02/cooking-ap-polls-radically-changes-party-mix-fabricate-obama-trend



Cooking with AP: Polls Radically Change Party Mix to Fabricate an Obama Trend
By Tom Blumer (Bio | Archive)
October 2, 2008 - 06:26 ET

In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following:

Whip up a tasty, representative poll after the Republican Convention.
Three weeks later, make the same dish, but this time adjust the mix of ingredients by radically oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans, thereby creating a false illusion of momentum in the campaign of Barack Obama, and of decline in John McCain's.
Hope people don't notice the changes in the recipe.
Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's Sept. 5-10 and Sept. 27-30 results were created deliberately, but the results sure look suspicious (both polls are available at PDF links found at AP-GfK's home page).

The more recent poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters, both with and without leaners; the earlier poll showed McCain with a 5-point lead with leaners, and 4 points without.

Almost all of this 12-point swing (11 points with leaners) is more than likely almost completely due to major differences between the two polls' samples:

Story Continues Below Ad ↓

http://www.bizzyblog.com/wp-images/APpollSampleComparisons0908.jpg

"Somehow," the sample make-up changed from 33-31 Democrat to 40-29 Democrat from the earlier to the latter poll -- a shift of nine points.

"Somehow," the Strong-Dem vs. Strong-GOP difference went from nothing to eight points.

"Somehow," the Strong-GOP vs. Moderate-GOP mix went from +3 to -3, a swing of six points.

Here's my best estimate of how the Sept. 27-30 poll would have turned out if AP-GfK had used a sample similar to the one it used Sept. 5-10:

http://www.bizzyblog.com/wp-images/APpollImpactOfSampleSkew0908.jpg

After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, substituting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.

Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.

AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:

Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.

Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.


As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.

Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters

[whottt]

Manny...you and Findog scare the shit out of me. IF you had kids would you have them singing songs about Obama?

[Wild Cobra]

There's a clear reason why the media spins the polling data. When Obama loses to McCain, they can say "the republicans stole the election again!"

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao @ Obama spins the polling data.

Oh shit.

How the fuck do you claim to be intelligent? Do you understand why your statement is so stupid, WC?

[MannyIsGod]

And Whottt, before I address YOUR foolish posts, find me the polls posted in this thread by the pollster you just discredited.

[MannyIsGod]

And Whottt, before I address YOUR foolish posts, find me the polls posted in this thread by the pollster you just discredited.

[Findog]

I couldn't find a link in the 538 thread, and this HAS to be an outlier, but HOLY FUCKING SHIT:

Fox News
Texas - Pres.
Obama 45
McCain 46

[Shastafarian]

I couldn't find a link in the 538 thread, and this HAS to be an outlier, but HOLY FUCKING SHIT:

Fox News
Texas - Pres.
Obama 45
McCain 46

Yeah that has to be an outlier. Either that or Fox News is in the tank for Obama!!! :lol

[MannyIsGod]

I couldn't find a link in the 538 thread, and this HAS to be an outlier, but HOLY FUCKING SHIT:

Fox News
Texas - Pres.
Obama 45
McCain 46


I'm sure it is an outlier, but I will also say this. Obama has a ground game here in Texas. I think the idea is to work and get a grass roots network to help downticket items as well as get an established network for 08 and 12. I don't believe there is a serious McCain ground game here. When you realize how many people were registered for the Democratic primary there is some momentum to be had.

All in All, I expect McCain to carry this state and to carry it easily, but I think there is a small chance with a motivated ground game to turn it blue. Now, that chance is really small and even if it does go blue its likely only because Obama is winning in a landslide. I don't think Texas EVs are going to come into play as a tipping point. If Texas goes blue, its because Obama is well past 270 EVs.

[TomBrady]

TX turning blue? I'll believe it when I see it.

[MannyIsGod]

Do you have a link for that poll btw?

[td4mvp21]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Findog]

I'm sure it is an outlier, but I will also say this. Obama has a ground game here in Texas. I think the idea is to work and get a grass roots network to help downticket items as well as get an established network for 08 and 12. I don't believe there is a serious McCain ground game here. When you realize how many people were registered for the Democratic primary there is some momentum to be had.

All in All, I expect McCain to carry this state and to carry it easily, but I think there is a small chance with a motivated ground game to turn it blue. Now, that chance is really small and even if it does go blue its likely only because Obama is winning in a landslide. I don't think Texas EVs are going to come into play as a tipping point. If Texas goes blue, its because Obama is well past 270 EVs.

Carter was the last Democrat to carry the state. Texas is slowly turning purple, but I think there are just too many rural, socially conservative voters to turn the state blue this year.

[Findog]

Do you have a link for that poll btw?

Somebody posted it in one of the 538 threads. I've been looking for confirmation. The last Rasmussen poll had McCain's lead here in the single digits.

[MannyIsGod]

Carter was the last Democrat to carry the state. Texas is slowly turning purple, but I think there are just too many rural, socially conservative voters to turn the state blue this year.

I'm really looking forward to the election results on this state. I want to see how it breaks down. Should be really interesting. I too don't think we have anything outside of a really small chance of seeing the race under 5 points this time around, but considering Bush carried it by 20 I'll be very happy to see it in the 7-8 point range which I think is extremely doable.

[whottt]

I'm sure it is an outlier, but I will also say this. Obama has a ground game here in Texas. I think the idea is to work and get a grass roots network to help downticket items as well as get an established network for 08 and 12. I don't believe there is a serious McCain ground game here. When you realize how many people were registered for the Democratic primary there is some momentum to be had.

All in All, I expect McCain to carry this state and to carry it easily, but I think there is a small chance with a motivated ground game to turn it blue. Now, that chance is really small and even if it does go blue its likely only because Obama is winning in a landslide. I don't think Texas EVs are going to come into play as a tipping point. If Texas goes blue, its because Obama is well past 270 EVs.


It means the polls are full of shit IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

[Findog]

It means the polls are full of shit IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

ALL the polls are wrong. :lol

[td4mvp21]

Somebody posted it in one of the 538 threads. I've been looking for confirmation. The last Rasmussen poll had McCain's lead here in the single digits.

Look at my earlier post on this page. If you click on Texas, McCain leads by 9% points (poll was by Rasmussen).

[Findog]

Whottt defeats timvp!

http://rosenblumtv.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/dewey_defeats_truman.jpg

[florige]

Man this is getting crazy. Hopefully Obama can close the deal on Tuesday with a good showing.

[MannyIsGod]

It means the polls are full of shit IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

Of course of course.

You gonna ever comment on McCain pulling out of MI?

[whottt]

All the weighted ones are.


Just out of curiosity...anyone know the party breakdown of registrations in Texas?


Sin,


Whottt - A registered Democrat.

[florige]

It means the polls are full of shit IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.



Check out that electoral.com map Whottt. I thought I heard people here saying that one was really accurate.

[MannyIsGod]

None of that is news though...
Thats what findog just said?


Look at my earlier post on this page. If you click on Texas, McCain leads by 9% points (poll was by Rasmussen).

[MannyIsGod]

All the weighted ones are.


Just out of curiosity...anyone know the party breakdown of registrations in Texas?


Sin,


Whottt - A registered Democrat.

Texas is going red unless of a landslide. Why not focus on your boy puling out of MI despite having super Palin on his side.

[MannyIsGod]

Check out that electoral.com map Whottt. I thought I heard people here saying that one was really accurate.

Whottt doesn't think a damn thing is accurate right now because every fucking thing right now says that McCain is on the verge of losing in a landslide.

[td4mvp21]

None of that is news though...
Thats what findog just said?

Yeah I know he said he was looking for confirmation so I gave it to him :lol That's what he wanted right??

[clambake]

Texas is going red unless of a landslide. Why not focus on your boy puling out of MI despite having super Palin on his side.

mccain has that state wrapped up.

[florige]

Whottt doesn't think a damn thing is accurate right now because every fucking thing right now says that McCain is on the verge of losing in a landslide.



:lol:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

I think he's looking for more conformation of the new poll. :)

[Findog]

Yeah I know he said he was looking for confirmation so I gave it to him :lol That's what he wanted right??

Confirmation on the foxnews poll that had McCain up by only 1 point here. I'd like to see the internals on that poll if it's true. Did they only survey Austin and Dallas? :lol

[whottt]

Of course of course.

You gonna ever comment on McCain pulling out of MI?


McCain is as guilty of overrreacting to the polls as anyone.


Did you hear Palin is saying let her and husband go and campaign in MI?

[td4mvp21]

Confirmation on the foxnews poll that had McCain up by only 1 point here. I'd like to see the internals on that poll if it's true. Did they only survey Austin and Dallas? :lol

My bad :lol Sorry

[MannyIsGod]

McCain is as guilty of overrreacting to the polls as anyone.


Did you hear Palin is saying let her and husband go and campaign in MI?


:lmao Palin will save the day!!!

Are you still as confident McCain will win?

[JoeChalupa]

McCain is as guilty of overrreacting to the polls as anyone.


Did you hear Palin is saying let her and husband go and campaign in MI?

I'm not surprised since it is her campaign now. McCain is riding her skirt tails.

[whottt]

Sigh...if you guys look on the previous page you will see an article that clearly shows how they are adjusting the weights of Democrats based on the economy news.


They shifted it 8 points up in favor of the Democrats and 2 points down against the Republicans...just because they think that news favors the Democrats....hell it's an insult to call that weighting...I don't know what the fuck you call it. But I know Gallup does it, I know the AP does it...

[JoeChalupa]

I don't believe all the polls either. IT is a real close race and as I've always said, Obama is the underdog. Some may say Obama can't win but McCain can lose.

[whottt]

:lmao Palin will save the day!!!

Are you still as confident McCain will win?


Yeah...I still am.

And you know the polls could be a factor...young voters have a piss poor turnout in elections usually and if they think it's in the bag they may not show up on election day to the degree Obama is expecting.


Conversely, if the McCain supporters think an Obama win is a done deal, they might not show up.


I don't know how the polls are going to impact this race...sometimes I read them and they piss me off and I feel defeated, other times I feel determined...


But I'll be honest...to anyone following closely the huge fuck up by McCain was signing off on that Senate Bill. But since Obama ducked it entirely he didn't get out of the negative with me...to be fair, there's pretty much nothing that could get him out of the negative with me right now...unless I find out Palin was behind 9/11..

[MannyIsGod]

ITS ONE FUCKING POLL WHOTTT. ONE fucking pollster. Not all of them. Furthermore its one fucking pollster no one has even brought up. Your argment is so fucking stupid. I don't understand how you're going to disregard EVERY SINGLE survey conducted based on a completely unrelated pollster. Its bullshit. Its just flat out bullshit.

You are just looking for any reason to disregard a poll you can find. It doesn't matter how little bearing it has on other polls, if you can someone make it fit your theory then its going in. You're working with an agenda and looking for information to fit that agenda which is fucking ironic because thats exactly what you're claiming the pollsters are doing.

You, whottt, are so biased and so full of shit right now its not even funny. But seriously, find ONE place where that pollster is referenced in this thread.

[whottt]

Obama polls high...RCP poll averages showed him beating Hillary by a 12 pt margin, the actual margin was under 2pts.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah...I still am.

And you know the polls could be a factor...young voters have a piss poor turnout in elections usually and if they think it's in the bag they may not show up on election day to the degree Obama is expecting.


Conversely, if the McCain supporters think an Obama win is a done deal, they might not show up.


I don't know how the polls are going to impact this race...sometimes I read them and they piss me off and I feel defeated, other times I feel determined...


But I'll be honest...to anyone following closely the huge fuck up by McCain was signing off on that Senate Bill. But since Obama ducked it entirely he didn't get out of the negative with me...to be fair, there's pretty much nothing that could get him out of the negative with me right now...unless I find out Palin was behind 9/11..

Last I checked Obama voted just the same way McCain did so I'm not sure how he ducked it. He just didn't make a stupid campaign stunt that gave him ownership of the utter failure of the bill.

And yeah, we all know that nothing is going to change your Palin loving mind and we've all seen that for quite a while.

[whottt]

I'm not surprised since it is her campaign now. McCain is riding her skirt tails.


McCain is hurting her....she's the one that keeps putting them back in this.


It's surprising, McCain has showed he can be inspiring at least a little in his RNC speech...but those sorts of appearances are few and far between.


The rest of the time he comes off as trying to be PC....

[MannyIsGod]

Obama polls high...RCP poll averages showed him beating Hillary by a 12 pt margin, the actual margin was under 2pts.

Ok, if thats the case find me the places where this happend. Those polls are located on the RCP site and the results are there as well.

Go find the evidence to back what you are saying Whottt.

Saying it doesn't make it true. I promise you if I go look I can find you far more instances where Obama OUT performed the polls. In other words he was shown to be winning by less than what he actually won by. In fact, I will.

[Warlord23]

The trend is clear, multiple sources are saying the same thing. I normally refer to realclear politics
RCP Map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5)

3 weeks ago, McCain had an edge or was very close in several states that are now slowly turning blue. He had a clear lead in Ohio, Florida, NC, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and was breathing down Obama's neck in PA, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

Click on each swing state on the left navigation and check the trends. Each of these states has swung towards Obama in the last 2 weeks, especially since the economic crisis began. I expect McCain will prevail in Nevada, Missouri, Florida and NC, but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama takes the rest.

[ElNono]

Ok, if thats the case find me the places where this happend. Those polls are located on the RCP site and the results are there as well.

Go find the evidence to back what you are saying Whottt.

Saying it doesn't make it true. I promise you if I go look I can find you far more instances where Obama OUT performed the polls. In other words he was shown to be winning by less than what he actually won by. In fact, I will.


"Trust me, I know" (tm)

[JoeChalupa]

McCain is hurting her....she's the one that keeps putting them back in this.


It's surprising, McCain has showed he can be inspiring at least a little in his RNC speech...but those sorts of appearances are few and far between.


The rest of the time he comes off as trying to be PC....

I concur. McCain has lost what ever momentum he ever had and Sarah is trying her best although more men find her favorable than women. I was watching the online graph last night and men ranked her responses much higher than women did.
She's fooling more men than women

[whottt]

Last I checked Obama voted just the same way McCain did so I'm not sure how he ducked it. He just didn't make a stupid campaign stunt that gave him ownership of the utter failure of the bill.

Oh get serious...he was completely non-commital and the only reason he voted on it was because McCain did.


Are you really so naive as to the way Obama works Manny? He's got a pretty extensive record.




And yeah, we all know that nothing is going to change your Palin loving mind and we've all seen that for quite a while.

I can admit I am heavily biased and I always have been against Obama, that said I was stilling to vote for him on an issue that was important to me..one issue. The most important one.


Now...when you can admit the media is completely in the tank for Obama...I'll feel like you are in a position to judge me fairly.


But I can also be objective in analyzing the situation..to not be able to be objective hurts me and my own judgement...and no one else.


I feel I am being objective with points on the weights...I feel I am being totally objective and I feel I have made valid points as to why those weights are off and why this election is one of the most unusual in history...so weight methods that have traditionally been pretty accurate are not going to be as accurate.

You know it's impossible to do a truly scientific sample poll based on 1000 or so voters. Most of the time it works...but it's not flawless.



The ratings, the contributions, the activism, the people showing up for appearances...these aren't factored into the polls.

What is factored is people that are registered Democrat...a piss poor indication of voting in Presidential elections...and economic news that they assume completely favors the Democrats.

[whottt]

Ok, if thats the case find me the places where this happend. Those polls are located on the RCP site and the results are there as well.

Go find the evidence to back what you are saying Whottt.

Saying it doesn't make it true. I promise you if I go look I can find you far more instances where Obama OUT performed the polls. In other words he was shown to be winning by less than what he actually won by. In fact, I will.


I posted it already in this thread. It was the link I posted right after I said never go with the odds on a stacked deck.

[MannyIsGod]

Tell me what state Whottt. I'll go find it myself. Either that or dig it up.

[Warlord23]

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2768444&postcount=11


Real Clear Politics now has McCain up 227-217.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2767548&postcount=8

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is now projecting McCain to win....FWIW.

277-261

So whottt likes referring to polls only when McCain leads. When Obama leads, the democratic media bias makes the polls untrustworthy.

Dumbass.

[MannyIsGod]

The whole crux of Whottt's argument is that polls are not accurate. He keeps trying to use this to frame these poll results as meaningless and inaccurate therefor not indicative of the actual situation right now.

Unfortunately for Whottt, here is the truth of the matter:

Political public polling is not only accurate, its INCREDIBLY accurate


Whottt loves to drop anecdotes in here like "They showed Kerry up in 04 and he lost) and he loves to provide discounting of individual polls and act as though they refer to every poll ever conducted. He likes to say things like Obama underperformed in the primaries based on polls but he doesn't provide any info other than that. They're all bullshit statements.

The simple fact is that if these polls are so bad or of their internals were so off why wouldn't he just go through and provide the evidence to disqualify each individual pollster using the info they provide?

Why can't whottt do that?

[Viva Las Espuelas]

geez, for a guy that makes an issue when other people bold their posts.

[whottt]

Tell me what state Whottt. I'll go find it myself. Either that or dig it up.

Sure...here's California:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html


Obama had a RCP avg lead of 1.2 Hillary won it by 9 something points. LOL one poll showed him up by 13 points in California.


Here's NH:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html


Obama had a RCP avg lead of 8.3 and Clinton won by 2.6.



There were others too...


That national polls showed him up by 12 points, and he won by less than 2.



Furthermore...no Democrat that has had less than a...I think it's 10, might be as high as 15 point lead in polling, has ever won the Presidency. So Democrats themselves poll high...


Guess what, that's because there's always more registered Democrats than there are Republicans.


I am telling you a lot of Repuplicans voted in these primaries.


Rush Limbaugh was encourging them to go register as Democrats and vote for Obama. He called it the stop Hillary express. On top of that...lots of women registered Democrat to vote for Hillary.

[whottt]

PS: Survey USA can be hired by any one to conduct these polls and ask questions in a way requested by whoever hires them. They're good...but they can have questions geared to get a certain response. Plus...they're recordings...a lot of people will instantly hang up on a recording. Especially old people.

[MannyIsGod]

Neither of these are a +/- of 12 like you said. So I'm still waiting for that one.

In addition What did the SUSA Poll say in California? Did all the polls say the same thing or were there different results? What does that tell you? How can you take what that teaches you and compare it to what is going on in the polls today? Are all the polls today saying the same thing?

[ChumpDumper]

Rush Limbaugh was encourging them to go register as Democrats and vote for Obama. He called it the stop Hillary express.Rush's "Operation Chaos" called on them to vote for Clinton, not Obama.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

At this point, I'm just kind of certain Whottt's messing with Manny's head.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, look at the RCP breakdown

Obama - 44.0
Clinton - 42.8

Does that add up to 100? Hmmm, no.

Actual performance

O-42.3
C-51.9

It shows you the polls were accurate, but that the UNDECIDEDS broke for Clinton heavily.

[MannyIsGod]

At this point, I'm just kind of certain Whottt's messing with Manny's head.

I'd believe you if Whottt didn't have a track record for refusing to acknowledge the obvious. This isn't the first Whottt trainwreck on this forum.

[ChumpDumper]

At this point, I'm just kind of certain Whottt's messing with Manny's head.Love makes you do crazy things, and whottt's got it bad.

[whottt]

By the way Manny...there is name for what happens in the polling...they call it the Bradley effect, and it's when white people don't want to be called racist so they say they're going to vote for a black candidate.

That's why playing the race card is a bad move. All it gets is skewed results.



It could turn out in Obama's favor, as you say he's got the ground game...


I think I read somewhere where there are now 16 million registered voters in Pennsylvania and there's only supposedly 13 million people in the state :lmao


If he and the Democrats are going to de-fraud the elections then all the red state Republicans who voted for OBama and white people saying they are going to vote for Obama could have slit their own throat.


But beyond all this...McCain fails to connect with people. I voted for Hillary in the primaries and when I was leaning towards Obama it was under the assumption he was going to put Hillary on the ticket...I got pissed when he put Biden the fucking plaigerizing socialist on it....


But anyway...I figured if Hillary didn't win I would probably vote for McCain, but when that time came...I couldnt' get excited about McCain and that's when I was saying ok...Obama's not looking so bad now, especially on the Iraq War after he changed his stance.


That has changed...Palin changed that dynamic. I can't speak for anyone, but I genuinely like her more than I have any candidate since Clinton. And I trust her...and I think she is by far the most competent and honest politician in this election. That's why I am voting for McCain.

And while the polls may not reflect my opinion, the ratings, the turnout at appearances, the contributions, and the rise in activism say I'm not alone.

[whottt]

Neither of these are a +/- of 12 like you said. So I'm still waiting for that one.

In addition What did the SUSA Poll say in California? Did all the polls say the same thing or were there different results? What does that tell you? How can you take what that teaches you and compare it to what is going on in the polls today? Are all the polls today saying the same thing?

That was the National Poll Average from the primaries and I already posted in Manny.

[Warlord23]

Explanations for whottt's behavior:

1. He's messing with everyone. If so, a masterful and convincing act - props
2. He's lost it. Some personal tragedy perhaps? But he's lost all touch with rationality
3. He's just very dumb outside of basketball, and has an affinity for dumbasses in general. That would explain why he'd want a retard like Palin anywhere close to the White House, and why he roots for Bush.

Hmm, maybe I should make a poll outta this

[florige]

By the way Manny...there is name for what happens in the polling...they call it the Bradley effect, and it's when white people don't want to be called racist so they say they're going to vote for a black candidate.

That's why playing the race card is a bad move. All it gets is skewed results.



It could turn out in Obama's favor, as you say he's got the ground game...


I think I read somewhere where there are now 16 million registered voters in Pennsylvania and there's only supposedly 13 million people in the state :lmao


If he and the Democrats are going to de-fraud the elections then all the red state Republicans who voted for OBama and white people saying they are going to vote for Obama could have slit their own throat.


But beyond all this...McCain fails to connect with people. I voted for Hillary in the primaries and when I was leaning towards Obama it was under the assumption he was going to put Hillary on the ticket...I got pissed when he put Biden the fucking plaigerizing socialist on it....


But anyway...I figured if Hillary didn't win I would probably vote for McCain, but when that time came...I couldnt' get excited about McCain and that's when I was saying ok...Obama's not looking so bad now, especially on the Iraq War after he changed his stance.


That has changed...Palin changed that dynamic. I can't speak for anyone, but I genuinely like her more than I have any candidate since Clinton. And I trust her...and I think she is by far the most competent and honest politician in this election. That's why I am voting for McCain.



So you would have voted for the Obama ticket had it not been for Biden being on it? What about had he chosen that other woman governor who was mentioned? I forget her name.....

[whottt]

Rush's "Operation Chaos" called on them to vote for Clinton, not Obama.

:lmao an expert on Rush are we? IF you say so.

He was encouraging them to vote for Obama to, at least some of the times I listened to him he was...or maybe it was Hannity.

[ChumpDumper]

I think I read somewhere where there are now 16 million registered voters in Pennsylvania and there's only supposedly 13 million people in the state :lmaoIt's still about 8 million, a few thousand more than 2004.

[MannyIsGod]

Chumps right. We're pretty much used to you being wrong though.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao an expert on Rush are we? IF you say so.

He was encouraging them to vote for Obama to, at least some of the times I listened to him he was...or maybe it was Hannity."Cheney is a lawyer."

"Rush said vote for Obama."

"16 million registered voters in Pennsylvania"

"Pravda"

All in less than one day.

The record speaks for itself here.

[whottt]

So you would have voted for the Obama ticket had it not been for Biden being on it? What about had he chosen that other woman governor who was mentioned? I forget her name.....


Look...I don't like Obama. I don't like the way he's been crammed down the American peoples throats.

I don't like that his middle name is Hussein. I really don't like that.

I don't like that he doesn't put his hand over his heart on the pledge of allegiance...you cannot fathom how much I dislike the idea of a man winning the Presidency that refuses to do that.

I don't like that he goes to a church that says GD America.


I don't trust this dude. And it's not about his blackness....this dude doesn't give a shit about black people, and he is naive. But I can't tell where he is coming from...I just know it's not he place most Americans are coming from, black white, male, female. Period. It's not the same place.


That said...I'm are tired of the incompetence of the Govt as much as the next guy...I still consider him an upgrade in intelligence and willingness to change his stance over Bush or Kerry. Plus he's more likeable...inspite of the antiamerican vibe I get from him.




On the Iraq War when the Leader is asking for the timeline, the condition I have always stated must exist before I would support an Iraqi pullout, and McCain fucked around with it and Obama moved to the middle...I was thinking ok, I'll vote for him. The idea of getting Bill Clinton, probably my first or second favorite President, without a doubt my first on economic policy, back in the Whitehouse, was starting to sound a lot more agreeable to me, in fact I was certain I was going to vote for Obama at that point.

Even if I didn't think Obama deserved to be the President becuase of his citizen of the world type attitude which I find repulsive in an American Leaders.


You want to lead the world motherfucker? Go join the U fucking N. I don't want a President that serves the world...fuck he world.

Honestly? I'd vote for AI more easily than I'd vote for Obama, swear to god...at least AI is genuinely proud to be an American unlike this commie cocksucker. It matters to me a great deal.


But anyway, I digress...



But yeah Biden is probably my least favorite politician ever...the second Obama put him on the ticket, I started moving away from the idea of supporting Obama for President....him picking Biden is like the Spurs signing Gary Payton this offseason or something.

[Findog]

I don't like that his middle name is Hussein. I really don't like that.

[JoeChalupa]

I"ve always liked Joe Biden.

[JoeChalupa]

DAmn, whottt talk about buying into all the right wing crap. Obama doesn't refuse to put his hand over his heart and there are pics of your beloved Sarah not putting her hand over that voluptuous chest of hers so I guess she's un-American too?
:lmao

[florige]

Look...I don't like Obama. I don't like the way he's been crammed down the American peoples throats.

I don't like that his middle name is Hussein. I really don't like that.

I don't like that he doesn't put his hand over his heart on the pledge of allegiance...you cannot fathom how much I dislike the idea of a man winning the Presidency that refuses to do that.

I don't like that he goes to a church that says GD America.


I don't trust this dude. And it's not about his blackness....this dude doesn't give a shit about black people, and he is naive. But I can't tell where he is coming from...I just know it's not he place most Americans are coming from, black white, male, female. Period. It's not the same place.


That said...I'm are tired of the incompetence of the Govt as much as the next guy...I still consider him an upgrade in intelligence and willingness to change his stance over Bush or Kerry.




On the Iraq War when the Leader is asking for the timeline, the condition I have always stated must exist before I would support an Iraqi pullout, and McCain fucked around with it and Obama moved to the middle...I was thinking ok, I'll vote for him. The idea of getting Bill Clinton, probably my first or second favorite President, without a doubt my first on economic policy, back in the Whitehouse, was starting to sound a lot more agreeable to me, in fact I was certain I was going to vote for Obama at that point.

Even if I didn't think Obama deserved to be the President becuase of his citizen of the world type attitude which I find repulsive in an American Leaders.


You want to lead the world motherfucker? Go join the U fucking N. I don't want a President that serves the world...fuck he world.

Honestly? I'd vote for AI more easily than I'd vote for Obama, swear to god...at least AI is genuinely proud to be an American unlike this commie cocksucker. It matters to me a great deal.


But anyway, I digress...



But yeah Biden is probably my least favorite politician ever...the second Obama put him on the ticket, I started moving away from the idea of supporting Obama for President....him picking Biden is like the Spurs signing Gary Payton this offseason or something.



You know what Whottt, at least you are honest dude.... I will give you that man. Even though I might not agree with some of the stuff you mentioned I can see where you are coming from with some of the stuff that turns you off about him. Palin I think is ok, I just really am turned off by McCain big time. The 00 McCain was alot more likeable than this guy.

[florige]

Man there are alot of people who are turned off by that unfortunately.

The Hussein thing. That quote didn't come up.

[Findog]

Man there are alot of people who are turned off by that unfortunately.

Proud to be a racist:


I don't like that his middle name is Hussein. I really don't like that.

[JoeChalupa]

You know what Whottt, at least you are honest dude.... I will give you that man. Even though I might not agree with some of the stuff you mentioned I can see where you are coming from with some of the stuff that turns you off about him. Palin I think is ok, I just really am turned off by McCain big time. The 00 McCain was alot more likeable than this guy.

I concur. I liked McCain before he allowed his campaign to change him.

[Anti.Hero]

Proud to be a racist:

Europe is having a grand time not being racist atm.

Keepin' it reaaaaalll.

[JoeChalupa]

I don't trust Sarah at all. There is just something about her and it isn't her name or some stupid crap about placing her hand over her rack. She just rubs me the wrong way so I can see why whottt gets all riled up. It works both ways.
I used to trust McCain but he's lost my trust.

[whottt]

I don't like that his middle name is Hussein


Damn right I don't...the difference is, I'm pretty fair minded about that sort of thing. Keep in mind...I dated a Paki Muslim Woman of Saudi descent for several years. She's probably the sweetest and most corageous woman I have ever met in my life. Plus she's got huge tits :tu

Guess what, she's not voting for Obama either...she even thinks there is a chance he might be a Muslim man is reason enough for her...and she's a Democrat. Not a chance in hell...Muslim men have beaten her, institutionalized her, raped her, and disowned for her entire life, when she was being treated as a defacto slave and I'm not talking about extremists either.

Me, I'm not a bigot dude...I just simply don't like that name because it is one shared by an enemy of this country, and I am pretty open minded more open minded that a lot of liberals I know...I know his name is going to hurt him in this election.




By the way...if there was any political correct inclination in my vote(and there isn't)...it'd be for women. They have been far more mistreated than any race or group in modern human history.


You want to talk about African Americans being slaves? Women still were slaves up until about 60 years ago...and there is rampant female slavery in Africa, the Middle East, and Soth Asia as we speak.
In human history there has never been a single culture where women were treated better and had more rights than men. Not a single one. The best they've ever had is equality. That's not true of blacks or hispanics or whites....or men. And as bad as the slaves were treated...their women had it worse.


So evne if I am inclined to vote for a supressed segment of society...

...it's going to be for a woman.


The ladies deserve better treatment than they get from men in general. Period.
You want to know why so many of them have issues? Imagine being told they have to devote themslves to a gender that intrinsically treats them as inequal and inferior....from the time they are little girl on...and it's usually their mothers telling them that.


Sometime go take a look at how many women are killed daily by men, in America, and all over the world. Raped, beaten, trapped, abducted...It puts to shame any sort of racial victimization you want to throw up there, in every society.

[florige]

I don't trust Sarah at all. There is just something about her and it isn't her name or some stupid crap about placing her hand over her rack. She just rubs me the wrong way so I can see why whottt gets all riled up. It works both ways.
I used to trust McCain but he's lost my trust.


He just acts way to arrogant for my taste. In 00 it seemed he was at least trying to be on the level. Hell even some during his primaries. But since then he has just sunken to a new low imo. I can't really comment on Palin even though I said she was okay just a minute ago. She hasn;t been given the chance to show what she is really about because she is on such a short leash.

[Findog]

Damn right I don't...the difference is, I'm pretty fair minded about that sort of thing. Keep in mind...I dated a Paki Muslim Woman of Saudi descent for several years. She's probably the sweetest and most corageous woman I have ever met in my life. Plus she's got huge tits :tu

Guess what, she's not voting for Obama either...she even thinks there is a chance he might be a Muslim man is reason enough for her...and she's a Democrat. Not a chance in hell...Muslim men have beaten her, institutionalized her, raped her, and disowned for her entire life, when she was being treated as a defacto slave and I'm not talking about extremists either.

Me, I'm not a bigot dude...I just simply don't like that name because it is one shared by an enemy of this country, and I am pretty open minded more open minded that a lot of liberals I know...I know his name is going to hurt him in this election.




By the way...if there was any political correct inclination in my vote(and there isn't)...it'd be for women. They have been far more mistreated than any race or group in modern human history.


You want to talk about African Americans being slaves? Women still were slaves up until about 60 years ago...and there is rampant female slavery in Africa, the Middle East, and Soth Asia as we speak.
In human history there has never been a single culture where women were treated better and had more rights than men. Not a single one. The best they've ever had is equality. That's not true of blacks or hispanics or whites....or men. And as bad as the slaves were treated...their women had it worse.


So evne if I am inclined to vote for a supressed segment of society...

...it's going to be for a woman.


The ladies deserve better treatment than they get from men in general. Period.
You want to know why so many of them have issues? Imagine being told they have to devote themslves to a gender that intrinsically treats them as inequal and inferior....from the time they are little girl on...and it's usually their mothers telling them that.


Sometime go take a look at how many women are killed daily by men, in America, and all over the world. Raped, beaten, trapped, abducted...It puts to shame any sort of racial victimization you want to throw up there, in every society.

Barack Obama's middle name has no relevance at all to what you just wrote. None at all.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh shit. :lmao

No wonder Whottt doesn't give a shit about the polls. Those things don't change middle names!

[JoeChalupa]

:lmao Whottt continues to crack me up. Next GTG will be a riot :lmao :hat

[ElNono]

Damn right I don't...the difference is, I'm pretty fair minded about that sort of thing. Keep in mind...I dated a Paki Muslim Woman of Saudi descent for several years. She's probably the sweetest and most corageous woman I have ever met in my life. Plus she's got huge tits :tu

Guess what, she's not voting for Obama either...she even thinks there is a chance he might be a Muslim man is reason enough for her...and she's a Democrat. Not a chance in hell...Muslim men have beaten her, institutionalized her, raped her, and disowned for her entire life, when she was being treated as a defacto slave and I'm not talking about extremists either.

Me, I'm not a bigot dude...I just simply don't like that name because it is one shared by an enemy of this country, and I am pretty open minded more open minded that a lot of liberals I know...I know his name is going to hurt him in this election.




By the way...if there was any political correct inclination in my vote(and there isn't)...it'd be for women. They have been far more mistreated than any race or group in modern human history.


You want to talk about African Americans being slaves? Women still were slaves up until about 60 years ago...and there is rampant female slavery in Africa, the Middle East, and Soth Asia as we speak.
In human history there has never been a single culture where women were treated better and had more rights than men. Not a single one. The best they've ever had is equality. That's not true of blacks or hispanics or whites....or men. And as bad as the slaves were treated...their women had it worse.


So evne if I am inclined to vote for a supressed segment of society...

...it's going to be for a woman.


The ladies deserve better treatment than they get from men in general. Period.
You want to know why so many of them have issues? Imagine being told they have to devote themslves to a gender that intrinsically treats them as inequal and inferior....from the time they are little girl on...and it's usually their mothers telling them that.


Sometime go take a look at how many women are killed daily by men, in America, and all over the world. Raped, beaten, trapped, abducted...It puts to shame any sort of racial victimization you want to throw up there, in every society.

In a nutshell, your vote is not on issues or even party lines.
It's entirely biased on race, religion and gender...
Not a very smart way to vote, if you ask me, but then again, 'smart' is not your forte.

[td4mvp21]

Barack Obama's middle name has no relevance at all to what you just wrote. None at all.

That's what Whott does.

[Findog]

That's what Whott does.

I know. I sometimes wonder if he is doing schtick and putting us on, or really feels the way he does. I don't usually post in the spurs section, so I'm not familiar.

[whottt]

Proud to be a racist:


Findog doesn't know what a race is.

[whottt]

Barack Obama's middle name has no relevance at all to what you just wrote. None at all.

Are you sure? Did you read the entire thing?