How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Findog]

I suppose I could be posting to point out how all the fraudulent registrations are impacting many of the weights in these polls...is that what you guys want me to do? I kinda already did it...but I could do it in more detail.

ACORN has nothing to do with Obama being up 8-9 points in the national tracking polls. Registration fraud is very different from voter fraud. ACORN is a tiny molehill the GOP wants to turn into a gigantic mountain.

[Findog]

#1. That's hilarious coming from a guy whose stock response during that period was: Obama will win. Obama will win. To every poll posted.


Every poll posted during that time was tainted by the convention bounces. It was artificial noise.




#5. I've already listed numerous times why I think the polls favor the Democrats,

Yes, you think they are oversampling Democrats. Every pollster worth his or her salt disagrees with you.


(similar to what you were doing during the surge only with 10x more thought, intelligence and analysis behind it in my case) I don't really see what I have to add.

I really wish Obama had the balls to dismiss this "surge worked" nonsense. Hooray, we put thousands of insurgents on the US payroll and they don't attack us anymore. What a shock!

[whottt]

Every poll posted during that time was tainted by the convention bounces. It was artificial noise.

And the ones posted during an economic collapse blamed on Bush, and McCain by association, aren't?

Not even when I fucking posted some internals that proved some of them them upped the weight of Democrats in them as a response to that collapse?

:lmao






Yes, you think they are oversampling Democrats. Every pollster worth his or her salt disagrees with you.


Yayaya...lots of people with extensive polling experience are saying the same things. Ironically enough...I consider those to be worth their salt.


Plus...I've already had this discussion 10 times in this thread since bailout, was it really needed again.





I really wish Obama had the balls to dismiss this "surge worked" nonsense. Hooray, we put thousands of insurgents on the US payroll and they don't attack us anymore. What a shock!


Idiot...I was referring to the Palin surge.

[TheMadHatter]

Where was this similar outrage when the CEO of fucking Diebold said he would do everything he could to deliver Ohio to the GOP???

Please ACORN is a non fucking issue compared to what the GOP has done behind the scenes with voter disqualification and hacking of electronic voting machines. I was tempted to just post this quote and leave it there:

"If you ain't cheating, you aint' trying"

Both sides are going to do whatever they can to increase their vote count. May the best man win.

[Findog]

And the ones posted during an economic collapse blamed on Bush, and McCain by association, aren't?


It's not a surprise that when the media was discussing "lipstick on a pig," McCain was doing better in the polls. When the election turned to things that actually matter in people's lives, voters turned to the candidate that they trust better on the economy. That's not an artificial bounce, that's simply an election centered around actual issues instead of bullshit culture wars.







Yayaya...lots of people with extensive polling experience are saying the same things. Ironically enough...I consider those to be worth their salt.

Name them.



Idiot...I was referring to the Palin surge.

You'll have to forgive me, I've never heard the term "Palin surge" before. I assume that's what happens in your pants every time you think about her. Whenever I hear some right-wing war supporter offhandedly reference the surge without any adjective preceding it, you'll have to excuse me if I automatically assume you're referencing the failed war in Iraq.

[ElNono]

And the ones posted during an economic collapse blamed on Bush, and McCain by association, aren't?


Is it Obama's fault that McCain is an ignorant in economics (as stated by himself)?. You're telling me the economy will be all peachy in the next 3 weeks? Because that's what people want to hear about.


Not even when I fucking posted some internals that proved some of them them upped the weight of Democrats in them as a response to that collapse?

Your cherry-picked polls. I actually posted another poll from the exact same page where you got yours that has even dems and reps in it. But that poll doesn't count because it makes you look really stupid, right?


Yayaya...lots of people with extensive polling experience are saying the same things. Ironically enough...I consider those to be worth their salt.

O RLY? Some republican internet blog has 'extensive polling experience'?


Plus...I've already had this discussion 10 times in this thread since bailout, was it really needed again.
We all enjoy the opportunity to watch you make a fool of yourself... It never gets old!


Idiot...I was referring to the Palin surge.
That's working out great for McCain, isn't it? Tell me, who did more interviews since she was introduced as VP candidate, Tina Fey as Sarah Palin, or Sarah Palin as Sarah Palin? :lmao

[Findog]

Manny, if you were a McCain adviser, what state combination would you be gunning for? It looks like he'd have to comeback and take Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. That's a tall task but it looks like that'd be his only shot.

Agreed?

McCain should stop any and all campaigning in Kerry states and draw a Maginot Line in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not sure anyone's even mentioned it on here, but Obama has such a huge money advantadge he's bought a block of time for next week on every major network. 30 minute free national stump speech ftw.

[01.20.09]

I hope McCain doesn't pull off a Reagan like comeback.

[florige]

Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.


Basically if I were to post I'd say I think the polls are BS, list my reasons, then the asshats pileon ensues...we've already done that 10 times so unless I got something new to add or I see you guys adding something new, I don't really see any point in going over the same shit. But I do still read the thread....


Yeah dude, we like reading your assessments even though we might not agree with them all the time....

[MannyIsGod]

This probably the best proof McCain's losing so badly in the enthusiasm battle. Bush has dominated early voting in the past 2 elections.



... Poll % Voted Non-Early
State Date Early Early Voters Likely Voters
================================================== ==
NM 10/13 10% Obama +23% Obama +6%
OH 10/13 12% Obama +18% Obama +4%
GA 10/12 18% Obama +6% McCain +11%
IA 10/9 14% Obama +34% Obama +10%
NC 10/6 5% Obama +34% McCain +5%

These are SUSA numbers. They're not supposed to be taken as extremey accurate but they are accurate in a general sense

[florige]

McCain should stop any and all campaigning in Kerry states and draw a Maginot Line in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.

At this point he doesn't have a choice. He has to try to defend the Bush states and pray for a miracle.

[MannyIsGod]

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.

Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html) who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer's polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she's surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave.

Nate Silvers's thoughts on these numbers.

[MannyIsGod]

Its funny to listen Whottt talk about weights being off for a couple of reasons. One, I've given him examples of pollsters that do NOT weight polls to begin with (and they show the same results as everyone else - Obama domination) and he also never discusses the ways in which weighting may be underpeforming for Obama

Its important to note that most pollsters are using 2004 numbers to project African American turnout. I would say there's at least a - oh i don't know, 100%? - decent chance that those numbers will be surpassed in this election.

There's an important effect that was tracked in the primary states where Obama had a large AA base to rally (IE NC) and the effect was consistent. It involved him OUTPERFORMING the polls on election day.

[boutons_]

Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html)



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

[ElNono]

Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.

So you're basically done for the next 4 years... that's a relief.

[Wild Cobra]

Where was this similar outrage when the CEO of fucking Diebold said he would do everything he could to deliver Ohio to the GOP???

LOL

LOL

LOL

That's been so disproven! You libtards just don't let go of proven propaganda, ever, do you?

Find the quote, in full context, and you will see you are the fool that you are. I've seen it, and you those propagating that shit, are so full of it. Besides, why do you libtards keep looking backwards when we need to look forward?

If anyone cheated on E-Voting in Ohio, it was the democrats:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x262/Wild_Cobra/Ohio2004.jpg

[JoeChalupa]

All you young voters better be ready to walk the talk!!!! And get in there and early vote so you can party on 11/04!!

[ElNono]

Besides, why do you libtards keep looking backwards when we need to look forward?




If anyone cheated on E-Voting in Ohio, it was the democrats:
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x262/Wild_Cobra/Ohio2004.jpg

So, which one is it? forward or backwards?

[florige]

McCain giving up on WI as well????



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/15/mccain_pulling_ads_in_wisconsin.html

[MannyIsGod]

McCain giving up on WI as well????



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/15/mccain_pulling_ads_in_wisconsin.html

nope

Those McCain Wisc. rumors

Posted: Wednesday, October 15, 2008 1:31 PM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under: States (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/category/1019.aspx), 2008 (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/category/1023.aspx), McCain (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/category/1207.aspx)

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Despite swirling rumors that the McCain campaign's days of full court press in Wisconsin may be numbered, NBC confirms that the Republican nominee's team has bought ad time in markets there next week. But the RNC's independent expenditure arm has stopped its efforts in the Badger State, as well as in Maine, where McCain hopes to snag one of the state's electoral votes.

The RNC's ad cash is already flowing into markets in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania. And newly added to that list in the home stretch to November 4th: battlegrounds Colorado and Missouri.

[florige]

nope

Those McCain Wisc. rumors

Posted: Wednesday, October 15, 2008 1:31 PM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under: States (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/category/1019.aspx), 2008 (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/category/1023.aspx), McCain (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/category/1207.aspx)

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Despite swirling rumors that the McCain campaign's days of full court press in Wisconsin may be numbered, NBC confirms that the Republican nominee's team has bought ad time in markets there next week. But the RNC's independent expenditure arm has stopped its efforts in the Badger State, as well as in Maine, where McCain hopes to snag one of the state's electoral votes.

The RNC's ad cash is already flowing into markets in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania. And newly added to that list in the home stretch to November 4th: battlegrounds Colorado and Missouri.




Holy shit you are quick to the draw dude....:lol

[MannyIsGod]

LOL I just happend to be scanning through the news when you posted that.

[JoeChalupa]

Man I miss Tim Russert.

[florige]

Man I miss Tim Russert.



Me too! He was always good at breaking it down when the pst two elections were really close on election night. Hopefully we won't have that dilimna to worry about this time around.....:lol

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3254/2945674302_8fa9d41d05_o.png

Not much good news today for McCain although the national tracking polls seem to be leveling out somewhat at about +7 for Obama.

But the fact that we're talking about places like WV and maybe even places like AR being contested means they're still in deep shit. McCain is being outspent 3 to 1 in marketing in these swing states. So much is stacked against him. +7 in the national polls sounds better than +10 but really trying to move those polls 7 points in under 3 weeks is a horrible barrel to be looking down.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, and the GA number is really really really interesting because of the early voting numbers coming out of that state regarding the percentage of black Americans heading to the polls. I don't think its particularly likely, but the odds of Obama reaching a 400 EV threshold are growing by the day. I still think its an ouside shot, probably under 10% and it would be shocking by any barometer but I do think it is now possible. And really, if there is a shot at 400 EVs then we shouldn't even be discussing chanes of a McCain presidency because they likely don't exsist.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually the chances for 395 are probably around 10% but the chances for 400 are probably closer to 1% due to the state EV breakdown. And they may be honestly lower than 10% but those early voting figures are so damn nice I may be pushing it.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I do want to say this. What are the chances that McCain's numbers rise once the undecideds who are primarily Republican/McCain finally make their decisions? I would expect that would lessen the current gap.

[Findog]

I do want to say this. What are the chances that McCain's numbers rise once the undecideds who are primarily Republican/McCain finally make their decisions. I would expect that would lessen the current gap.

A lot of the statistical models predict a tightening of the race, but look at it this way: If the aggregate of all national tracking polls has Obama up 50-43, with 7% of the electorate undecided...

McCain needs ALL of the remaining undecideds to break for him en masse. He can still get to 270, but he needs to stop dicking around in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and divert all resources to Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. He has a slim chance to pull out a win in the EC based on a successful defense of the 2004 Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico.

[Findog]

Here's another thought I had: neither candidate has been spending much time in Colorado, and it's a state Obama HAS to have if he can't flip Florida, Ohio or Virginia. If Obama loses the latter three, Colorado is a must-win for him.

So, with that in mind, why isn't Obama making more of a play there? Why isn't McCain maintaining more of a defense there? Why is McCain spending so much time in Pennsylvania? Is the race closer there according to internal polling, or is McCain making a strategic decision to contest a Kerry state because he knows Colorado, along with Iowa and New Mexico are lost? Remember, Obama wins this thing if he's got the Kerry States + Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. He wouldn't need Florida, Virginia or Ohio.

Iowa and New Mexico are definitely going blue, so Colorado is a potential clincher. If Obama has Colorado, McCain has no choice but to try and flip a blue state.

[MannyIsGod]

Here's another thought I had: neither candidate has been spending much time in Colorado, and it's a state Obama HAS to have if he can't flip Florida, Ohio or Virginia. If Obama loses the latter three, Colorado is a must-win for him.

So, with that in mind, why isn't Obama making more of a play there? Why isn't McCain maintaining more of a defense there? Why is McCain spending so much time in Pennsylvania? Is the race closer there according to internal polling, or is McCain making a strategic decision to contest a Kerry state because he knows Colorado, along with Iowa and New Mexico are lost? Remember, Obama wins this thing if he's got the Kerry States + Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. He wouldn't need Florida, Virginia or Ohio.

Iowa and New Mexico are definitely going blue, so Colorado is a potential clincher. If Obama has Colorado, McCain has no choice but to try and flip a blue state.

I don't know why you would think they're not concentrating a lot of efforts there but I know that the campaign sure is. Not to mention the polls out of CO are extremely favorable. I know we're sending volunteers there from San Antonio and its probably the state we're sending the most to.

[MannyIsGod]

Colorado http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:40,60%7C0.1,0.1&chm=t+%241.5M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24990K,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$2.5 million
Advantage:
+$510K, Obama
Florida http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:19,73%7C8,.1&chm=t+%244.7M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%241.8M,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$6.5 million
Advantage:
+$2.9M, Obama
Indiana http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:.1,71%7C29,.1&chm=t+%241.9M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24790K,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CRNC
Total spent:
$2.7 million
Advantage:
+$1.1M, Obama
Iowa http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:49,51%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%24590K,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24560K,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$1.2 million
Advantage:
+$30K, Obama
Maine http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:18,20%7C62,.1&chm=t+%2475K,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24297K,333333,1,0, 11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$372,000
Advantage:
+$222K, McCain
Michigan http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:.1,100%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%242.3M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%240,333333,1,0,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$2.3 million
Advantage:
+$2.3M, Obama
Minnesota http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:47,53%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%24675K,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24608KK,333333,1, 0,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$1.3M
Advantage:
+$67K, Obama
Missouri http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:29,71%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%242M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24824K,333333,1,0,1 1&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$2.8 million
Advantage:
+$1.2M, Obama

Montana http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:.1,100%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%24250K,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%240,333333,1,0,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$250,000
Advantage:
+$250K, Obama

New Hampshire http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:21,79%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%241.1MK,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24289K,333333,1, 0,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$1.4 million
Advantage:
+$811K, Obama
North Carolina http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:22,54%7C24,.1&chm=t+%242.1M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%241.8M,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$3.9 million
Advantage:
+$310K, Obama
New Mexico http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:35,65%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%24700K,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24370K,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$1.1 million
Advantage:
+$330K, Obama
Nevada http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:31,69%7C.1,.1&chm=t+%241M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%24460K,333333,1,0,1 1&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain
Total spent:
$1.5 million
Advantage:
+$540K, Obama
Ohio http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:18,59%7C23,.1&chm=t+%244.1M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%242.9M,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$7 million
Advantage:
+$1.3M, Obama
Pennsylvania http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:27,60%7C14,.1&chm=t+%243.8M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%242.6M,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$6.4 million
Advantage:
+$1.2M, Obama
Virginia http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:10,78%7C12,.1&chm=t+%243.9M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%241.1M,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$5 million
Advantage:
+$2.8K, Obama
Wisconsin http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=bhs&chco=b1503e%7C4c5c79,d37967%7C75839c&chs=200x65&chd=t:25,57%7C18,.1&chm=t+%241.5M,333333,1,1,11%7Ct+%241.1M,333333,1,0 ,11&chxt=y&chxl=0:%7CObama%7CMcCain-RNC
Total spent:
$2.6 million
Advantage:
+$358K, Obama

[MannyIsGod]

I know that last post is formatted in a shitty manner but thats as good as its going to get. Anyway, the point is to show you how much Obama outspent McCain by this past week and to show you just how much of McCain's money is in danger when the RNC pulls the plug. Its pretty drastic. You don't make up advantages by spending less, thats for damn sure.

[whottt]

I know that last post is formatted in a shitty manner but thats as good as its going to get. Anyway, the point is to show you how much Obama outspent McCain by this past week and to show you just how much of McCain's money is in danger when the RNC pulls the plug. Its pretty drastic. You don't make up advantages by spending less, thats for damn sure.



Eh...Palin out draws all of the other guys on TV and I believe she does so in personal appearances as well. That's all that money is doing.

The Republican 527 Ads are the ones doing the damage to Obama anyway.

[MannyIsGod]

The 527s are almost silent right now. They're not making a big impact at all. Most of their impact has been through web ads which only get limited airplay if they're picked up on news shows.

Great, Palin draws 10-15k at an appearence or 2 each day where she speaks to people that are already going to vote for McCain. Mean while, Obama reaches millions upon millions in a far more effective manner through ads each day. But sure, we'll call it a draw because we all know you think Palin is the best thing since sliced bread.

[Findog]

The Republican 527 Ads are the ones doing the damage to Obama anyway.


To the tune of a 7-point Obama lead in the tracking polls.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just for shits-and-giggles, what's Texas look like?

[florige]

Just for shits-and-giggles, what's Texas look like?


It's still pretty red the last I checked. I'm sure Manolo will have some figures though.

[MannyIsGod]

Red as hell. No one's going to poll it though so we'll just have to wait till the election to see if there was any movement. I'm hoping for a single digit loss and hoping that my prescient owns for Obama.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Red as hell. No one's going to poll it though so we'll just have to wait till the election to see if there was any movement. I'm hoping for a single digit loss and hoping that my prescient owns for Obama.

What about the money? I know I've seen more Obama ads recently.

[Findog]

Red as hell. No one's going to poll it though so we'll just have to wait till the election to see if there was any movement. I'm hoping for a single digit loss and hoping that my prescient owns for Obama.

Obama will win the cities, as they will be light blue. The suburbs and exurbs will be pink, and the rural areas will be blood red.

[MannyIsGod]

On local TV or national TV? I don't think I've seen any ads on local TV. I know I see them on national channels but I'm about 99% sure I've not seen a single ad on a local TV station nor heard one on a local radio station.

When I was in MI a few weeks back I watch any TV but every time I got into the car and listened to the radio I heard Obama ads (and a few McCain ads).

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Then I guess it'd be ABC buys since I saw the ads at work.

[JoeChalupa]

Come on Barack!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

Then I guess it'd be ABC buys since I saw the ads at work.

Was it during a national news broadcast? My interest is peaked now.

[Findog]

I don't know why you would think they're not concentrating a lot of efforts there but I know that the campaign sure is. Not to mention the polls out of CO are extremely favorable. I know we're sending volunteers there from San Antonio and its probably the state we're sending the most to.

It's just that none of the four principals seem to have stumped there recently.

[MannyIsGod]

Well Barack spent a lot of time in OH recently and in debate prep as well. Its hard for them to be everywhere but I expect him to be back there again before the end of the election.

The problem with Colorado is that its so isolated comapred to the other battleground states. Its easy to travel inbetween OH, IN, VA, and NC since they're all fairly close to each other and teh coverage you get is likely to bleed into MI, WV, and PA because they share certain media markets.

[florige]

Obama's lead drops 2 points against McCain....


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/17/obamas-lead-falls-two-points-in-new-cnn-poll-of-polls/

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Obama's lead drops 2 points against McCain....


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/17/obamas-lead-falls-two-points-in-new-cnn-poll-of-polls/
i heard they're all dropping.

[Findog]

i heard they're all dropping.

You would be wrong:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/tpm_track_composite_obamas_lea_1.php


Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With one day of post-debate sampling now incorporated into the three-day tracking poll, there hasn't been much of a change so far in Barack Obama's big lead:

• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-43.9%, a lead of 6.5 points, pretty much the same as the 50.3%-43.7% Obama lead from yesterday.

*ed. note: Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a modified likely-voter model for an expected higher turnout. For all our composites and Poll Tracker entries, we will be using that second model under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle.

[florige]

Man it's like the closer it gets to election time, the more I hold my breath now everyday when I first look at that electoral map.

[timvp]

How come this thread isn't being updated now that McCain has gained on Obama in national polls in the last few days?

Oct. 13 - Obama +7.3
Oct. 14 - Obama +7.2
Oct. 15 - Obama +7.1
Oct. 16 - Obama +6.8
Oct. 17 - Obama +6.7
Oct. 18 - Obama +5.6
Oct. 19 - Obama +5.0

It's not time for Obama backers to panic but that's not a good trend . . .

[ElNono]

How come this thread isn't being updated now that McCain has gained on Obama in national polls in the last few days?

Oct. 13 - Obama +7.3
Oct. 14 - Obama +7.2
Oct. 15 - Obama +7.1
Oct. 16 - Obama +6.8
Oct. 17 - Obama +6.7
Oct. 18 - Obama +5.6
Oct. 19 - Obama +5.0

It's not time for Obama backers to panic but that's not a good trend . . .

Isn't this pretty standard stuff? I always thought polls tighten as the election comes close.
I would actually like to see how the polls look in swing states lately if somebody can post them.

[Findog]

Isn't this pretty standard stuff? I always thought polls tighten as the election comes close.
I would actually like to see how the polls look in swing states lately if somebody can post them.

The statistical models predicted a tightening of the vote the closer to the election day. The good news is that Obama isn't dropping below 50% when you average and weight all of the national tracking polls. What appears to be happening is that McCain is consolidating conservative support.

[boutons_]

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/hh5yqkjoz0643z1cuvndva.gif

[Findog]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/tpm_track_composite_obama_ahea_3.php




Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is holding a sizable lead over John McCain, and has slightly expanded it after a momentary dip yesterday:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-46% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-43.9%, a lead of six points, compared to the 49.5%-44.3% Obama lead from yesterday.

Note that this is the first day of polling taken entirely after Wednesday's debate. The pre-debate baseline was an Obama lead of 50.3%-43.7%, meaning that McCain has barely made a dent since then.


This composite of all the tracking polls has Obama up 6, not 5. My prediction is that he takes the popular vote 52-47 or 48 percent for McCain. I think at most the 3rd party vote will be 1.5%.

[Bartleby]

Two things the polls aren't really showing yet: Obama will get a bounce from Powell's endorsement and solidify his lead with a barrage of big market advertising in battleground states. That five point Obama lead is probably as close as McCain will get from here on out.

[florige]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/tpm_track_composite_obama_ahea_3.php




This composite of all the tracking polls has Obama up 6, not 5. My prediction is that he takes the popular vote 52-47 or 48 percent for McCain. I think at most the 3rd party vote will be 1.5%.



I'm curious to see the polls later in the week when the whole Powell endorsement affect has been taken into consideration.

[Findog]

Battleground polls from yesterday:

McCain +1 Ohio Mason/Dixon
McCain +4 Montana Research 2000
Obama +12 Pennsylvania Morning Call
Obama +11 Minnesota Star Tribune
Obama + 13 Minnesota Research 2000
Obama +12 Wisconsin Mason Dixon
McCain +6 West Virginia Mason Dixon
McCain +8 West Virginia PPP

[Findog]

I'm curious to see the polls later in the week when the whole Powell endorsement affect has been taken into consideration.

I read an article on Pollster in which most of the top polling experts believe this is structurally a 4-5 point race. It was that way before the veep selections and conventions, and it appears to be returning to that after Palin mania and the economic crisis. I think McCain has a hard time consolidating conservative support and that is where the recent uptick in his numbers is coming from - most likely demoralized Republicans are now answering that they plan to vote for McCain the closer we get to election, and that's being reflected in the likely voter models. That and the recent slime (ACORN, Ayers, Anti-Americanism) is hurting Obama at the margins. The smear garbage is going to keep McCain competitive but it won't put him over the top.

[MannyIsGod]

How come this thread isn't being updated now that McCain has gained on Obama in national polls in the last few days?

Oct. 13 - Obama +7.3
Oct. 14 - Obama +7.2
Oct. 15 - Obama +7.1
Oct. 16 - Obama +6.8
Oct. 17 - Obama +6.7
Oct. 18 - Obama +5.6
Oct. 19 - Obama +5.0

It's not time for Obama backers to panic but that's not a good trend . . .

Meh, the polls are fluctuating around the same equilibrium point. McCain gains and loses on a daily basis. I didn't have regular internet access or time in NM to even check the internet but looking at the trend line for the past 3-4 days everything look pretty much the same.

[Findog]

Meh, the polls are fluctuating around the same equilibrium point. McCain gains and loses on a daily basis. I didn't have regular internet access or time in NM to even check the internet but looking at the trend line for the past 3-4 days everything look pretty much the same.

And not to be overconfident but it really does feel like a two-possession game in the 4th quarter of a football game. That said...


McCain can still win this. Every day he spends playing "offense" in Pennsylvania or is forced to defend North Carolina makes me happy. He should confine all of his campaigning to Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.

[MannyIsGod]

Its also important to remember that McCain only has 2 weeks to go and people are starting to make up their minds. I spoke to very few undecided people this weekend, and half those who were "undecided" were leaning a direction and said something to the effect of "they will probably get my vote".

Thats anecdotal evidence, but I'm pretty sure its in line considering how short time is and how many people are already heading out to do early voting. The Obama GOTV machine is in full gear and the McCain campaign can't compete with it.

[MannyIsGod]

After this weekend, I pretty much think the only states that matter to me at this point are NM and CO. OH, FL, VA, and NC are all just as important, but considering Obama has Kerry+IA in a really tight grip, if NM and CO do go blue its ballgame. That being said, we'll know much sooner on election night the status of those other states so if you see NC or VA go blue then I'd probably be willing to bet thats the ballgame right there.

I'm gonna post some pictures in a bit. I got to meet Bill Richardson and some other local politicians and southern NM is blue as hell right now. They love Richardson so much there and a lot of local officials are killing the GOP.

In fact, outside of yard signs the McCain campaign has absolutely no pressence there nad has virtually written the area off. While we'd run into Obama canvessers on a regular basis, I went all weekend without seeing a single McCain campaign volunteer or employee.

[boutons_]

"McCain campaign can't compete with it."

HUSSEIN has to compete with GOP's voter purging/suppression/intimidation campaign.

If HUSSEIN wins, it will be by a lot less than 10 pts, or even 5 pts, seen in the polls.


HUSSEIN's polls lead is extremely precarious and misleading.

[florige]

After this weekend, I pretty much think the only states that matter to me at this point are NM and CO. OH, FL, VA, and NC are all just as important, but considering Obama has Kerry+IA in a really tight grip, if NM and CO do go blue its ballgame. That being said, we'll know much sooner on election night the status of those other states so if you see NC or VA go blue then I'd probably be willing to bet thats the ballgame right there.

I'm gonna post some pictures in a bit. I got to meet Bill Richardson and some other local politicians and southern NM is blue as hell right now. They love Richardson so much there and a lot of local officials are killing the GOP.

In fact, outside of yard signs the McCain campaign has absolutely no pressence there nad has virtually written the area off. While we'd run into Obama canvessers on a regular basis, I went all weekend without seeing a single McCain campaign volunteer or employee.




Be sure to post pics if you happen to run into Obama or Biden...

[MannyIsGod]

Saw Biden at a rally but wasn't able to get close enough to shake his hand. A lot of the other people with us did, but I was working the lines to get out supporters for early voting and the turnout was so huge I wasn't able to get into the plaza to watch him. I got some pictures from a decent distance away but SS had a guard rail barricade set up.

Maybe I'll get luck in OH this next weekend.

[florige]

Saw Biden at a rally but wasn't able to get close enough to shake his hand. A lot of the other people with us did, but I was working the lines to get out supporters for early voting and the turnout was so huge I wasn't able to get into the plaza to watch him. I got some pictures from a decent distance away but SS had a guard rail barricade set up.

Maybe I'll get luck in OH this next weekend.



Still pretty kickass you got to meet Bill Richardson though. He seems pretty cool.

[Mr. Peabody]

By this point, I think we should be more focused on the individual states than national polls. Popular vote doesn't mean anything if you lose the electoral vote (ask Al Gore). Here's a snapshot of the electoral count.

http://www.sdspulse.com/documents/evwidget1020.jpg

Obama just has to put one more state in the solid blue column and it's over.

[Findog]

I don't think Obama is gonna win Ohio. They've been hit hard by NAFTA and there's been a resultant brain drain out of that state.

This is Ohio for you:


<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IYtUTu9H7dE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IYtUTu9H7dE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[Mr. Peabody]

I don't think Obama is gonna win Ohio. They've been hit hard by NAFTA and there's been a resultant brain drain out of that state.

This is Ohio for you:


<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IYtUTu9H7dE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IYtUTu9H7dE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

It'd be nice of he wins Ohio, but it doesn't look like Ohio is a must win. I remember at the beginning of the general election, the Obama campaign said that they were going to focus on a strategy to win the election without winning Ohio or Florida. Chuck Todd was laughing and saying he didn't see how it was possible. They may do just that.

[Findog]

It'd be nice of he wins Ohio, but it doesn't look like Ohio is a must win. I remember at the beginning of the general election, the Obama campaign said that they were going to focus on a strategy to win the election without winning Ohio or Florida. Chuck Todd was laughing and saying he didn't see how it was possible. They may do just that.

Yeah, I think it makes it a lot easier for Obama if he gets one or both, but it's nice to know he has more than one path to 270. McCain still has a chance to win this thing, but it means threading the needle and successfully defending the Bush 2004 states minus Iowa and maybe New Mexico.

[DarkReign]

Man, McCain's list of States is like reading the inbred portion of this nation's geneology.

It has nothing to do with red/blue. But cmon...

[TheMadHatter]

If any state has been hit hard by the economy it's Ohio. You would think Obama's economic message would gain some footing there of all places but he hasn't managed to break through. I say let them rot in their ignorance.

This is why Obama's 50 state campaign is paying off now. He doesn't need Ohio. He has so many paths to 270 he can pick and choose where to spend his incredible war chest in the final weeks.

Remember Obama still has a firewall in the Southwest. NM and CO will go blue due to the incredible 70% Hispanic vote that Obama receives. This is all Obama needs to win the Presidency, this is why McCain is staying in PA. He needs to pick off a Kerry state like PA to have a chance in this election.

[clambake]

Man, McCain's list of States is like reading the inbred portion of this nation's geneology.
pro-american


It has nothing to do with red/blue. But cmon...
blue is anti-american. keep up DR.

[Cry Havoc]

If any state has been hit hard by the economy it's Ohio. You would think Obama's economic message would gain some footing there of all places but he hasn't managed to break through. I say let them rot in their ignorance.

This is why Obama's 50 state campaign is paying off now. He doesn't need Ohio. He has so many paths to 270 he can pick and choose where to spend his incredible war chest in the final weeks.

Remember Obama still has a firewall in the Southwest. NM and CO will go blue due to the incredible 70% Hispanic vote that Obama receives. This is all Obama needs to win the Presidency, this is why McCain is staying in PA. He needs to pick off a Kerry state like PA to have a chance in this election.

The reason Ohio is still up for grabs is because the economy is so bad there that people are scared. Frightened people respond drastically to messages of fear and doom, which has been the cornerstone of the McCain campaign to this point. It's working because Obama represents something unexpected in the cultural or ideological sense. I don't think he'll be that drastically different from most other presidents we've had, but let's face it, he's black, and he's broadcasting a completely different attitude than the GOP. To Ohioans, that's an unknown element, and they are afraid to gamble at this point.


And not to be overconfident but it really does feel like a two-possession game in the 4th quarter of a football game. That said...

I think RISK is a very adequate comparison here, especially the way the armies shake up. Right now Obama has a lot of land and he's got more power to lock down continents, but he's got to continually pound the weak spots to ensure that he's going to win. Otherwise, McCain can fortify and start encroaching into his territory. A little momentum can go a long way here, so as long as Obama keeps McCain from really gathering steam, it should be a win for him.

[florige]

Man these polls are really all over the place today....:lol
I expect to see alot of shifting between now and election day.

[MannyIsGod]

I want to post a few of the pictures I took this weekend with some background on what is going on there.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/uncbiden.jpg


On Friday there was a rally where Richardson and Biden spoke. Biden made CNN from this rally because of the way he slammed Palin's "Pro America" comments. Anyway, didn't get in because we had waaaaaaaaaay more people than they were expecting (no idea of the actual figures though, sorry) so me and some other volunteers listend from outside. When Biden came out he pointed to us and thanked us. It was a pretty cool moment.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/bgstate.jpg

At the end of the rally things got heated between a group of Abortion/GOP protestors and many of the Obama supporters. The police stood inbetween just to make sure nothing went over the line. The abortion protestors were fairly disgusting to me considering they were using 5-8 year old children to hold up giant posters of aborted fetuses.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/sprvolmich.jpg

When canvassing a pretty rural neighborhood that was mostly hispanic I met Michelle who invited me in and showed me her "miniHQ" where she kept lots of information and documentation on Democratic campaigns that she used to talk to her neighbors.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/hqmural.jpg

Mural outside of the Las Cruces campaign HQ. Pretty awesome, IMO.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/busgroup.jpg

Our group and our bus.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/MeandRichardson.jpg

Secretary of State, I MEAN NM Govorner Bill Richardson and myself.

[lurker23]

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/MeandRichardson.jpg

Secretary of State, I MEAN NM Govorner Bill Richardson and myself.

That beard looks much better than the one he was sporting during the tail-end of the Obama/Clinton primaries. I thought he would have been a good choice for the Democratic VP candidate, but I knew he would seriously have to trim down the beard to do so; this would have been acceptable.

Thanks for posting the pictures, Manny.

[timvp]

Cool pix. What areas of NM you hit up?

[MannyIsGod]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Jess and I will be hitting up Toledo, OH (I think its going to be Toledo) this coming weekend and I'll take pictures there as well but I'm pretty sure that will be entirely canvassing.

[PixelPusher]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Jess and I will be hitting up Toledo, OH (I think its going to be Toledo) this coming weekend and I'll take pictures there as well but I'm pretty sure that will be entirely canvassing.

I used to live in Alamogordo when I was a kid. btw, you look like you could be Bill Richardson's son in that pic.

[timvp]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.Cool.

From traveling around New Mexico, it's interesting to see how radically it shifts from ultra blue to ultra red. I bet if you went to places like Sante Fe and Taos that you couldn't even find a McCain supporter :lol

Las Cruces, IRRC, is usually pretty split. Alamogordo is pretty red. You guys didn't hit up the Roswell area? That is ultra red country.

But yeah, if Las Cruces goes 60/40 Obama, that will be enough to win the state most likely.

[Tully365]

Secretary of State, I MEAN NM Govorner Bill Richardson and myself.

:lol Great pics. I'm sure your great-great-grandchildren will love those pics someday.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats a pretty astute analysis of the breakdown. Alamogordo was pretty rough territory for the people that went there. Typically the campaign at this point is aimed more at making sure people who are supporting Obama are urged to vote. Its Get Out The Vote time and you're not going to get as much done if you spend time in places were the GOP dominates. Las Cruces was split, but I do think the Dems have the advantadge there and they are likely going to sweep the congressional race there, the senate race, and go blue for Obama. Its a really crucial county to have, and if Obama hasn't won VA or NC by the time NM polls close then its going to be a very interesting location to watch as it could be a very good prognosticator of who will take the election.

[MannyIsGod]

back to the polls...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3243/2959175933_1af9103a18_o.png

I like this breakdown by Nate Silver:


The central point is this: if McCain has gained ground -- and most likely he has -- then what he's done is reset the race to roughly where it was two weeks ago, when Obama also had roughly a 6-point national lead. Except, the two positions aren't entirely equal, since two weeks have run off McCain's clock. Roughly speaking -- and accounting for his inferior position in the electoral college -- McCain needs to gain about half a point per day every day between now and November 4 to become a favorite in the electoral college. That is not an easy task; from the nadir of Obama's numbers, which we put at 9/12, to his peak, which we put at 10/11, Obama was gaining about a quarter of a point per day on average. That is, by the standards of a presidential campaign, very rapid movement. But McCain needs to get those numbers down about twice as quickly as Obama got them up, and he does not have any debates or other major public events to assist him.

I'm glad in a way these polls are tightening. I don't want Obama supporters to sit on their ass but to get out there and close the deal.

[PixelPusher]

just curious, is there an Obama "ground game" in Oklahoma?

[MannyIsGod]

Good question. let me find out. I think there is a ground game in every single state right now for Obama.

[MannyIsGod]

He's got an office in Tulsa. Its probably the same type of deal as the San Antonio office with an effort to get volunteers into MO, NM, and CO and a phone banking center but not nearly the size of a main office in a battleground state.

[PixelPusher]

He's got an office in Tulsa. Its probably the same type of deal as the San Antonio office with an effort to get volunteers into MO, NM, and CO and a phone banking center but not nearly the size of a main office in a battleground state.

I was curious, because I've seen polls that have McCain at +30 in Oklahoma.

[TheMadHatter]

It'll be funny to see GA go blue before TX. Man you guys have got to get your state in order, seriously you are the last major metropolitan state to be so overwhelmingly R.

[Mr. Peabody]

CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign has written off Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. Now McCain's only path to victory is to win EVERY swing state and flip Pennsylvania to a red state. Interesting.

1Jjz992mYWA

[Bartleby]

I guess given McCain's limited resources he doesn't have many options at this point. The problem with consolidating his efforts on those few big states is that Obama has enough money in his war chest to defend his lead in Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa and, at the same time, keep the big battleground states very competitive.

[Mr. Peabody]

How come this thread isn't being updated now that McCain has gained on Obama in national polls in the last few days?

Oct. 13 - Obama +7.3
Oct. 14 - Obama +7.2
Oct. 15 - Obama +7.1
Oct. 16 - Obama +6.8
Oct. 17 - Obama +6.7
Oct. 18 - Obama +5.6
Oct. 19 - Obama +5.0

It's not time for Obama backers to panic but that's not a good trend . . .


Obama's Lead? Republicans are touting this WSJ headline this morning: "Obama Takes in a Record $150 Million, But McCain Narrows Gap in Some Polls." The story points out that Obama's lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average was down to 5.3 points over the weekend, after being as high as 8 last week.

▲ Obama's Lead. The RCP stat may seem to show the race tightening, but it probably isn't; measuring last week's number next to today's is an apples-to-oranges comparison. The average last week included some surveys (like the NYT, WashPost and LAT polls) showing Obama with leads of 9 or more points. Because RCP uses a rolling average, those polls have now dropped out, and as of now the average only includes the major tracking polls, which show a closer race. But Obama's lead has actually grown in those tracking polls from where they were last week.

:toast

[boutons_]

McCain camp looking for way to win without Colorado (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/mccain-camp-looking-for-way-to-win-without-colorado/)
Posted: 06:40 PM ET

From CNN Chief National Correspondent John King (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/tag/cnn-chief-national-correspondent-john-king/)
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/20/art.johnking.gi.jpg Some McCain insiders believe Colorado is out of reach.



http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/mosaic/base_skins/baseplate/corner_wire_BL.gif

(CNN) — The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error and depends heavily on a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican for president in 20 years.


While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.


"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.
This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."




http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/mccain-camp-looking-for-way-to-win-without-colorado/

[Mr. Peabody]

Did someone say the race is tightening?


Poll: Obama Gained During Debates
CBS News/N.Y. Times Follow-Up Survey Of Likely Voters Suggests Democrat's Advantage Grew

The standing of the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden improved during the last few weeks of the presidential campaign, a period that included the three presidential debates and the vice presidential debate, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.

In a poll taken just before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket held a five point edge, with 48 percent of likely voters backing the Democratic ticket and 43 percent supporting the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Those 476 likely voters were re-interviewed for the new poll, and their responses suggest that the Democratic ticket has made gains since the initial survey: The Obama-Biden ticket now holds a 13-point edge, 54 percent to 41 percent, among the group.

Nearly all of the voters who supported Obama in the initial poll in September - 98 percent - still do. The Republican ticket has retained 88 percent of its support. Among formerly undecided voters, fifty-two percent now say they favor Obama, while 36 percent support McCain. Twelve percent remain undecided.

Independents now support the Democratic ticket 50 percent to 43 percent. In September, this group backed the Mccain-Palin ticket, 46 percent to 40 percent. Self-described moderates, meanwhile, overwhelmingly favor the Obama-Biden ticket, breaking for the Democrats 66 percent to 30 percent.

Did CBS News or the New York Times remember to multiply McCain's numbers by 10 and divide Obama's numbers by 3.1415962?

[MannyIsGod]

CNN (http://thepage.time.com/john-king-on-cnn/) reports that top officials of Sen. John McCain's campaign are "making tough decisions" as they now see Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa no longer winnable.

Instead, the campaign's "risky strategy" is counting on Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and a comeback in Pennsylvania.

The McCain campaign responds (http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/20/king-of-the-world-says-mccain-pretty-much-giving-up-on-colorado/): "We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling. We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/20/mccain_giving_up_on_colorado.html

Interesting that he's putting all of his eggs in the I'm going to make a miracle comeback in PA basket.

[RandomGuy]

Did someone say the race is tightening?



Did CBS News or the New York Times remember to multiply McCain's numbers by 10 and divide Obama's numbers by 3.1415962?

:lol

[JoeChalupa]

Pretty much Las Cruces and Alamogordo. I didn't go to Alamogrodo but a few of us did. Las Cruces is pretty damn small but its the 2nd biggest city in NM.

Jess and I will be hitting up Toledo, OH (I think its going to be Toledo) this coming weekend and I'll take pictures there as well but I'm pretty sure that will be entirely canvassing.

Toledo, OH!! I used to to go there all the time. I grew up just 45 minutes away. Thanks for posting the pics. Barack On!!!!

[boutons_]

HUSSEIN's strategy of going after dubya's red states has been devastating, forcing McNasty to defend and spend resources where he should have been safe.

Macaca HUSSEIN still has to overcome the millions of racists, white supremacists, Whotts, Clannys, WC's, ducks, Repug dirty tricks, voter suppression/intimidation. Nothing is guaranteed. It will be nearly miraculous if HUSSEIN wins against such odds.

[Extra Stout]

Man, McCain's list of States is like reading the inbred portion of this nation's geneology.

It has nothing to do with red/blue. But cmon...
A vendor from Michigan who is a volunteer firefighter tells me a story.

He answered a call about a woman complaining from neck pain. She had dived into shallow water in a nearby lake and hit her head on the bottom. She explained when asked that she needed to pee and figured it was easier to jump in the lake and pee rather than wait until she got home. She also told them that the last time she jumped in the lake to pee the same thing happened.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

A vendor from Michigan who is a volunteer firefighter tells me a story.

He answered a call about a woman complaining from neck pain. She had dived into shallow water in a nearby lake and hit her head on the bottom. She explained when asked that she needed to pee and figured it was easier to jump in the lake and pee rather than wait until she got home. She also told them that the last time she jumped in the lake to pee the same thing happened.


:lmao

[DarkReign]

A vendor from Michigan who is a volunteer firefighter tells me a story.

He answered a call about a woman complaining from neck pain. She had dived into shallow water in a nearby lake and hit her head on the bottom. She explained when asked that she needed to pee and figured it was easier to jump in the lake and pee rather than wait until she got home. She also told them that the last time she jumped in the lake to pee the same thing happened.

:lmao Thats rich. I dont feel the need to explain Michigan in a nutshell to you, as Im sure you know already.

But yes, I get your point.

My point on the other hand still holds. Read the states of McCain. I see confederate flags, overalls, gun racks and spittoons galore. Good, God-fearing baptists aplenty.

[florige]

Now I am pretty sure this poll is dead on with it's accuracy. Very reliable....


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/21/pew_research_mccain_collapses_in_latest_national_p oll.html

[boutons_]

Repug dirty tricksters have deepening hole to cheat their way out of

[MannyIsGod]

Now I am pretty sure this poll is dead on with it's accuracy. Very reliable....


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/21/pew_research_mccain_collapses_in_latest_national_p oll.html

I think the important thing to notice is that most polls have Obama within about 2 or 3 points of 50%. Thats fairly consistent. The McCain numbers have proven more volatile but if Obama is getting 49+ of the vote then he's won. Nadar and Barr will take 2-3% nationally.

[Bartleby]

Looks like Obama has shifted his campaign into fifth gear:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/10/20/2008-10-20_obamas_allout_blitz_drowns_out_mccain_wi.html

[MannyIsGod]

What we may have witnessed is some sort of dead cat bounce (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce) for John McCain. One possibility is that, as more voters are taking advantage of early voting windows across the country, the pollsters are finding that some voters whom they considered "unlikely" voters have in fact turned out to vote. Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1600) gives Obama a 21-point lead nationwide among people who have already voted, and SurveyUSA and Civitas peg his advantage among early voters in North Carolina at around 20 and 30 points, respectively.

WOW! With record early vote turnout occuring and the Obama GOTV machine running incredibly well this is huge. Look at these numbers and tell me ground games don't matter.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3033/2962066385_4846d30b89_o.png

God damn I'm pumped up right now. I can't wait to get to OH.

[Das Texan]

at least mccain can count on wyoming and oklahoma!

[Cry Havoc]

Has anyone noticed that there are 3k+ people viewing the political forum, and that Spurstalk set a new usage record today for the number of simultaneous people online?

[Cry Havoc]

Ah yes. Mentioned in the other thread. Blah.

[MannyIsGod]

Has anyone noticed that there are 3k+ people viewing the political forum, and that Spurstalk set a new usage record today for the number of simultaneous people online?

The other thread made some big time blogs today which is where the guests are coming from.

[Bartleby]

The other thread made some big time blogs today which is where the guests are coming from.

I know about Sullivan's. Were there others?

[MannyIsGod]

Only one, not sure why I made it plural but w/e.

[Bartleby]

Still, that's a shitload of viewers. Pretty amazing.

[Findog]

Still, that's a shitload of viewers. Pretty amazing.

I never realized how much of a readership he has.

[Mr. Peabody]

WOW! With record early vote turnout occuring and the Obama GOTV machine running incredibly well this is huge. Look at these numbers and tell me ground games don't matter.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3033/2962066385_4846d30b89_o.png

God damn I'm pumped up right now. I can't wait to get to OH.

Damn! I try not to get too excited because I will be that much more disappointed if Obama loses. But god damn this is good news!

[Findog]

Why are they surveying Oklahoma? That, along with Utah, Wyoming and Idaho, are states McCain can't possibly lose.

[MannyIsGod]

Why are they surveying Oklahoma? That, along with Utah, Wyoming and Idaho, are states McCain can't possibly lose.

Pollsters are in the business of providing information to those who pay for it. If a local media outlet wants a poll done for their area, these pollsters will do it regardless of how close the race in the area is. The most likely reason is that the local media outlet (I'm assuming that's who would request the poll be done) was wanting info on other races as well so they just toss in the presidential election as well.

[MannyIsGod]

More of the same...

McCain has NO ground game in many important states.

tdeTy9HGQOw

[DarkReign]

More of the same...

McCain has NO ground game in many important states.

tdeTy9HGQOw

You know, the guy who does that job on CNN is totally amazing.

He does it on the fly, fast and well. Really, really deft and practiced.

[MannyIsGod]

John King and Chuck Todd love themselves some Microsoft Surface. I think those fuckers have the coolest gigs. John King is going to tear that shit up election night.

[whottt]

So tell me Manny...why do you think the polls are tightening up?

I already stated why I think so...it's so they can claim to be a legitimate indicator of who will win elections...and if those guys continue polling the way they have been that certainly won't be the case.

[Mr. Peabody]

So tell me Manny...why do you think the polls are tightening up?

I already stated why I think so...it's so they can claim to be a legitimate indicator of who will win elections...and if those guys continue polling the way they have been that certainly won't be the case.

Are the polls tightening? The RCP poll of polls is at 7.2.

RCP Average 10/14 - 10/20 -- -- 50.2 43.0 Obama +7.2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Rasmussen Reports 10/18 - 10/20 3000 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/18 - 10/20 1211 LV 2.9 50 42 Obama +8
Hotline/FD 10/18 - 10/20 791 LV 3.5 47 41 Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/18 - 10/20 2384 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/18 - 10/20 2299 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
ABC News/Wash Post 10/17 - 10/20 1324 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
IBD/TIPP 10/16 - 10/20 1088 LV 3.0 47 41 Obama +6
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV -- 53 39 Obama +14
GWU/Battleground 10/14 - 10/20 1000 LV 3.1 48 47 Obama +1

[Bartleby]

Like I said the other day, it's unlikely McCain is going to get any closer than 5 points from here on out. Obama is closing the deal in these last two weeks and looking to go into the WH with a mandate.

[MannyIsGod]

So tell me Manny...why do you think the polls are tightening up?

I already stated why I think so...it's so they can claim to be a legitimate indicator of who will win elections...and if those guys continue polling the way they have been that certainly won't be the case.

The polls making any significant tightening is news to me. As I stated before, I pretty much perceive to the election to be in a state of equilibrium at the moment. McCain's numbers have improved in certain polls and worsened in others.

That being said, it looks like he gained a slight amount of ground, but I think this is a trend that should continue up until election day. I don't think its going to get closer per say, but some natural tightening is to be expected as some undecideds come home to McCain.

[florige]

:lmao Check it out guys....



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsWpvkLCvu4

[MannyIsGod]

haha dude thats old school.

[MannyIsGod]

"Democrats are voting early in greater numbers than their Republican counterparts in several closely contested states, reversing a pattern that favored the GOP in past elections," according to USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-21-early-voting_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip).

"The trend is evident in Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico, state and county figures show. In Georgia, blacks are voting in greater numbers than they did in 2004."

"The early voting trend is about even in Colorado. Republicans claim the edge among absentee voters in Florida, but Democrats are voting in far greater numbers at early voting polling places where voters lined up this week."

Said Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center: "This cannot be good news for John McCain. It's the 100-yard dash, and Obama is already 20 yards ahead."

The "I Told" of my "I Told You So" Posts has already been written.

Bexar Count early voting numbers for day 2? Even better than day 1 - 31,413 for a total of 60,532.

[Findog]

So tell me Manny...why do you think the polls are tightening up?

I already stated why I think so...it's so they can claim to be a legitimate indicator of who will win elections...and if those guys continue polling the way they have been that certainly won't be the case.

You have a great blog:

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=107628

[JoeChalupa]

Race is tighter than ever. (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93VM4PO0&show_article=1)

"The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord."


Come on people!!!

[Findog]

Race is tighter than ever. (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93VM4PO0&show_article=1)

"The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord."


Come on people!!!


Calm the fuck down.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

Polls that have Obama up 13 points are outliers, a single poll showing Obama +1 where 44% of the respondents are evangelical christians when they made up 23% of the electorate in 2004 is an outlier as well. It also has McCain winning the 18-24 vote. The truth is that Obama is up by about 5-7 points right now. If there were tectonic shift to McCain the other polls would show that movement too, and they haven't.

These polls give the Freepers something to talk about and for whottt to masturbate to.

[JoeChalupa]

Calm the fuck down.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

Polls that have Obama up 13 points are outliers, a single poll showing Obama +1 where 44% of the respondents are evangelical christians when they made up 23% of the electorate in 2004 is an outlier as well. It also has McCain winning the 18-24 vote. The truth is that Obama is up by about 5-7 points right now. If there were tectonic shift to McCain the other polls would show that movement too, and they haven't.

These polls give the Freepers something to talk about and for whottt to masturbate to.

:lmao I hear ya but I won't be satisfied until January 20, 2009.

[Bartleby]

It also has McCain winning the 18-24 vote.

:wow

That alone is a pretty good indication that the poll is off.

[florige]

JC is always looking at the worst case scenario. Obama could be up by 50 and Joe would be all nervous.....:lol

[MannyIsGod]

dun dun dun

The plot thickens


An internal Barack Obama campaign poll has the Democrat ahead of John McCain by just two percentage points.
WILK radio host Steve Corbett (http://audio.wilknewsradio.com/m/audio/21203046/corbett-speaks-with-sean-smith.htm) said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing a tight race. Pollster.com's trend line of public Pennsylvania polls (http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php) has Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 38 percent.
Obama's Pennsylvania communications director Sean Smith said on Corbett's show that the field organizer who sent the e-mail may have been trying to energize Obama volunteers. Smith wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but he said that the e-mail was sent without permission and that the campaign worker has since been reprimanded (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703/752/630799).


http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/

[Findog]

dun dun dun

The plot thickens




http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/

That's not consistent with their stumping behavior. They've been spending more energy and time lately on Florida, Missouri and Ohio.

[MannyIsGod]

Of course. Its better to fight where you face the least resistance. Why give McCain the bye in those other states if he wants to focus on nothing else but PA? Losing any of those other states means he loses as well.

[Findog]

Of course. Its better to fight where you face the least resistance. Why give McCain the bye in those other states if he wants to focus on nothing else but PA? Losing any of those other states means he loses as well.

It's also possibly that they could've leaked that poll to give McCain false hope. I do believe that the race in Penn is tighter than the public polls, there's got to be a reason why McCain continues to spend so much time there in the face of unfriendly polling. But Pennsylvania as a whole, thanks to Pitt and Philly, is much bluer than Virginia, Missouri and North Carolina. I don't know in what universe Virginia turns blue in accordance with the national electorate but Pennsylvania flips red. There's not enough white racist rednecks in Western Penn to cancel out Philly and Pitt.

[Shastafarian]

It's also possibly that they could've leaked that poll to give McCain false hope. I do believe that the race in Penn is tighter than the public polls, there's got to be a reason why McCain continues to spend so much time there in the face of unfriendly polling. But Pennsylvania as a whole, thanks to Pitt and Philly, is much bluer than Virginia, Missouri and North Carolina. I don't know in what universe Virginia turns blue in accordance with the national electorate but Pennsylvania flips red. There's not enough white racist rednecks in Western Penn to cancel out Philly and Pitt.

I've never been but aren't there a lot of conservatives in Pittsburgh?

[Findog]

I've never been but aren't there a lot of conservatives in Pittsburgh?

It's not as liberal as Philly, so Obama's margins there won't be as impressive, but it IS a Union town.

[Shastafarian]

It's not as liberal as Philly, so Obama's margins there won't be as impressive, but it IS a Union town.

Right I know about the unions. But there are so many blue collar workers there I figure the spread is much more even than a city like Philly.

[romad_20]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

[Shastafarian]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

What do you mean "what might happen"? He loses. Maybe they investigate but I doubt anything would happen.

[Findog]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

Then there will have been something seriously wrong with the polls. The Bradley Effect is not a significant factor anymore.

[MannyIsGod]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

Just come out and say it. Why beat around the bush?

[CubanMustGo]

Too bad it's not 2004, then you could have said beat around the Bush.

[Wild Cobra]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?
I think that's how it's all planned. They can cry cheating again when he loses.

[romad_20]

Just come out and say it. Why beat around the bush?

Its just a question. I would like to know what you think would happen if that scenario played out.

BTW I don't believe there ever was a bradley effect. There were many more issues going on in that election, including gun control, that had way more effect on it than race.

[balli]

I wanted to post this but I didn't think it deserved it's own thread. Anyway McCain ain't winning because if you'll notice the Donkeys on her scarf, SARAH PALIN IS SO FUCKING STUPID.
http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/5044/originalhw8en5.th.jpg

[Spurminator]

I think that's how it's all planned. They can cry cheating again when he loses.

They're planning to lose so they can cry? What?

[MannyIsGod]

I don't think anything will happen other than McCain wins. The democrats would ask themselves what went wrong and there would be a lot of questioning about the polls.

[MannyIsGod]

They're planning to lose so they can cry? What?

Its WC dude. Please don't question his version of reality.

[ElNono]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

Yeah, he would not become the next US President.
Here's another random thought: What might happen if McCain is down on the polls by 7-10% and trailing in most swing state polls on Mon 3rd and then he losses?

[CuckingFunt]

Its WC dude. Please don't question his version of reality.

Please don't.

Because, then he'll try to explain it again. And then I'll get scared. Again.

[Wild Cobra]

Its just a question. I would like to know what you think would happen if that scenario played out.

BTW I don't believe there ever was a bradley effect. There were many more issues going on in that election, including gun control, that had way more effect on it than race.

Well, the Bradley Effect only applies to those who practice Poliical Correctness. Therefore, you will primarily find it among democrats. I do believe the effect to be real. I just cannot quantify it and feel accurate. Since allot of leberals do like McCain, I see it can possible be substantial this year in some states.

Liberals are in denial.

Think about it. Liberals don't really like to see minorities in high places. They treat them as tokens. They are part of the population to keep reliant on liberal handouts so liberals can stay in power. If minorities had the same financial status as whites, half would be right leaning rather than the current 95% or so left leaning. That would make it harder for democrats to get elected.

[Shastafarian]

Please don't.

Because, then he'll try to explain it again. And then I'll get scared. Again.


Well, the Bradley Effect only applies to those who practice Poliical Correctness. Therefore, you will primarily find it among democrats. I do believe the effect to be real. I just cannot quantify it and feel accurate. Since allot of leberals do like McCain, I see it can possible be substantial this year in some states.

Liberals are in denial.

Think about it. Liberals don't really like to see minorities in high places. They treat them as tokens. They are part of the population to keep reliant on liberal handouts so liberals can stay in power. If minorities had the same financial status as whites, half would be right leaning rather than the current 95% or so left leaning. That would make it harder for democrats to get elected.

Oh well...

[Findog]

The Bradley Effect does not exist anymore. Period.

[Wild Cobra]

They're planning to lose so they can cry? What?
No, I'm talking about the bias in the polls. The democrats do want to win.

Why do people read in things I don't say or imply?

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the Bradley Effect only applies to those who practice Poliical Correctness. Therefore, you will primarily find it among democrats. I do believe the effect to be real. I just cannot quantify it and feel accurate. Since allot of leberals do like McCain, I see it can possible be substantial this year in some states.

Liberals are in denial.

Think about it. Liberals don't really like to see minorities in high places. They treat them as tokens. They are part of the population to keep reliant on liberal handouts so liberals can stay in power. If minorities had the same financial status as whites, half would be right leaning rather than the current 95% or so left leaning. That would make it harder for democrats to get elected.

:lmao

[Findog]

One further nail in the Bradley Effect coffin is that McCain's explicit appeals to racism give his supporters cover to reveal their racist instincts. Racism towards Obama is already reflected in the polls.

[Ignignokt]

wow, all you internet tough guys are showing alot of bravery attacking Angel Luv out here.

this is getting ridiculous.

THere are people here who believe that 911 was a staged attack, even going as far as believing that the govt used laser beams and special effects.

Some people here sided with a rapper who equated the Cops and Law enforcement with alqueda.

Some of you need to self asses yourselves.

Then you have MannyisGod telling a black girl she's racist.

Wow, this is totally topsy turvy world.

If anybody is racist it's Manny for posing with the obama campaign. The obama campaign doesn't need more vicous monkey metaphors. Our nation is already divided as it is.

[Findog]

And in case anybody cares, there WAS a pattern in the late eighties of black candidates underperforming their polls, but that hasn't been the case since the late eighties/early nineties. Any McCain supporter hoping the Bradley Effect will save them is in for a rude awakening on November 4th.

[CuckingFunt]

wow, all you internet tough guys are showing alot of bravery attacking Angel Luv out here.

But, then again, at least we know how to make sure our posts end up in the correct thread.

[romad_20]

I don't think anything will happen other than McCain wins. The democrats would ask themselves what went wrong and there would be a lot of questioning about the polls.

Just wondering.

I could see extreme outrage on the part of Obama's supporters and the African American community and an extremely divided America. I'm not saying there would be a revolt but I think it would be a very tense time in America. People would feel like they were duped and faith in the system would erode even more.

I was curious to see what everyone's opinion on that situation would be.

[dg7md]

Total fail to claim that the election is closing tighter, just yesterday I read an article on Yahoo News that talked about Obama opening a double-digit lead.

[Ignignokt]

But, then again, at least we know how to make sure our posts end up in the correct thread.

that's pretty much your only forte here.

[MannyIsGod]

Just wondering.

I could see extreme outrage on the part of Obama's supporters and the African American community and an extremely divided America. I'm not saying there would be a revolt but I think it would be a very tense time in America. People would feel like they were duped and faith in the system would erode even more.

I was curious to see what everyone's opinion on that situation would be.

I knew what you were getting at. I wish you would have just come out and said it. I think it already is a very tense time in America and I'm pretty sure the black community already distrusts the establishment and already expects some shit to happen so I don't think it would be a huge shock if Obama somehow loses.

[ChumpDumper]

Nboutonsadan was making the case for fraud when Obama was down in the polls.

Viva Las anti-whottt Cobra Darrin Hoops Fan 101A is making the case for fraud now that McCain is down in the polls.

[Wild Cobra]

Just wondering.

I could see extreme outrage on the part of Obama's supporters and the African American community and an extremely divided America. I'm not saying there would be a revolt but I think it would be a very tense time in America. People would feel like they were duped and faith in the system would erode even more.

I was curious to see what everyone's opinion on that situation would be.
I think we would see mass riots and vandalism in the inner cities.

[Ignignokt]

Nbadan was making the case for fraud when Obama was down in the polls.

Viva Las anti-whottt Cobra Darrin Hoops Fan 101A is making the case for fraud now that McCain is down in the polls.

and boutonijuana is making the case for fraud regardless of the outcome.

[romad_20]

I knew what you were getting at. I wish you would have just come out and said it. I think it already is a very tense time in America and I'm pretty sure the black community already distrusts the establishment and already expects some shit to happen so I don't think it would be a huge shock if Obama somehow loses.

Dumbass,

I'm not just talking about the African-American community. In case you haven't noticed there is quite a bit of enthusiasm among all races and people in America for Obama. I'm talking bigger picture, so please don't assume you know what I was getting at.

[ChumpDumper]

and boutonijuana is making the case for fraud regardless of the outcome.I tried to get boutons in there. The other dude isn't on my radar for that kind of stuff. Maybe he should be..

[Shastafarian]

Dumbass,

I'm not just talking about the African-American community. In case you haven't noticed there is quite a bit of enthusiasm among all races and people in America for Obama. I'm talking bigger picture, so please don't assume you know what I was getting at.

:lol

uh oh

[Wild Cobra]

Nboutonsadan was making the case for fraud when Obama was down in the polls.

Viva Las anti-whottt Cobra Darrin Hoops Fan 101A is making the case for fraud now that McCain is down in the polls.
Someone has to bring it up. I just want to see the different possible ways of commiting fraud eliminated. Democrats seem to want to cry about voting macj=hines, but do nothing about what republicans want to stop. It works both ways you know. The machine issue is being taken care of. Republicans agree. Why cannot democrats agree to other reasonable measures?

[Shastafarian]

Someone has to bring it up. I just want to see the different possible ways of commiting fraud eliminated. Democrats seem to want to cry about voting macj=hines, but do nothing about what republicans want to stop. It works both ways you know. The machine issue is being taken care of. Republicans agree. Why cannot democrats agree to other reasonable measures?

What are your thoughts on purging votes like they did in Florida in 2000 and like they're doing in Colorado this very day?

[romad_20]

:lol

uh oh

:lol

I'm just posting with the proper "Political Forum" protocol.

[ChumpDumper]

Someone has to bring it up. I just want to see the different possible ways of commiting fraud eliminated. Democrats seem to want to cry about voting macj=hines, but do nothing about what republicans want to stop. It works both ways you know. The machine issue is being taken care of. Republicans agree. Why cannot democrats agree to other reasonable measures?How are the machines being taken care of?

Are there now paper receipts for every voter?

And what are the reasonable measures you are proposing that will eliminate the corrupt election officials you claim to be committing Massive Vote Fraud! everywhere?

[MannyIsGod]

Dumbass,

I'm not just talking about the African-American community. In case you haven't noticed there is quite a bit of enthusiasm among all races and people in America for Obama. I'm talking bigger picture, so please don't assume you know what I was getting at.

Yet you couldn't just come out and say it and you framed it as a question? Ok.

Whatever, I have no reason to doubt what you say so I'll take you at face value. I apologize for assuming incorrectly.

[Wild Cobra]

What are your thoughts on purging votes like they did in Florida in 2000 and like they're doing in Colorado this very day?
Purging is a tricky process and must be done very carefully. It should be done, but it must be done accurately. I would like to see the voter rolls here in Oregon purges and more so in Washington where there was no doubt, voter fraud, in the 2004 election.

[Shastafarian]

:lol

I'm just posting with the proper "Political Forum" protocol.

I liked how you addressed it to him and used "Dumbass" as his name. :tu

[MannyIsGod]

Don't do it chump. Its just going to spiral out of control like every other time this fool is engaged. Its clear facts don't factor into what he thinks and says so whats the point?

[Wild Cobra]

How are the machines being taken care of?

Are there now paper receipts for every voter?

And what are the reasonable measures you are proposing that will eliminate the corrupt election officials you claim to be committing Massive Vote Fraud! everywhere?
Haven't you learned yet? I no longer take requests from you. If you miss such news, too bad.

[Shastafarian]

Purging is a tricky process and must be done very carefully. It should be done, but it must be done accurately. I would like to see the voter rolls here in Oregon purges and more so in Washington where there was no doubt, voter fraud, in the 2004 election.

Ok but they purged 50,000+ names in Florida and have purged at least 30,000 names in Colorado. Shouldn't there be some kind of oversight to make sure the names they're purging should be purged? To my knowledge it's currently all up to the secretary of state of each state.

[MannyIsGod]

Purging is a tricky process and must be done very carefully. It should be done, but it must be done accurately. I would like to see the voter rolls here in Oregon purges and more so in Washington where there was no doubt, voter fraud, in the 2004 election.

Purging is illegal 90 days before a federal election. You may want to take a look at the Help America Vote Act of 2002 if you're going to talk about voter fraud.

god damn I can't help myself.

[ChumpDumper]

Don't do it chump. Its just going to spiral out of control like every other time this fool is engaged. Its clear facts don't factor into what he thinks and says so whats the point?I have no illusions about his ever being reasonable. It's just so funny when he tries to justify his insane ideas and made up bullshit.

[romad_20]

Yet you couldn't just come out and say it and you framed it as a question? Ok.

Whatever, I have no reason to doubt what you say so I'll take you at face value. I apologize for assuming incorrectly.

There was nothing to come out and say. I wasn't assuming that there would be anything. I really was curious what other people thought would happen in that scenario, seriously. I accept your apology and I'm sorry for calling you a dumbass.

[ChumpDumper]

Haven't you learned yet? I no longer take requests from you. If you miss such news, too bad.So you just made up more bullshit. :tu

You're a liar.

[Shastafarian]

I have no illusions about his ever being reasonable. It's just so funny when he tries to justify his insane ideas and made up bullshit.

I think it's funnier that he actually believes the stuff he posts. No matter how insane or made up (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2841679&postcount=6) it tends to be.

[Wild Cobra]

Ok but they purged 50,000+ names in Florida and have purged at least 30,000 names in Colorado. Shouldn't there be some kind of oversight to make sure the names they're purging should be purged? To my knowledge it's currently all up to the secretary of state of each state.
There should be proper oversight. I don't know the facts surrounding the particular issue. I'd like to believe it is properly done, but I really don't know.

[Shastafarian]

There should be proper oversight. I don't know the facts surrounding the particular issue. I'd like to believe it is properly done, but I really don't know.

In Florida they purged the names of people who had similar names to convicted felons. Similar names...

[MannyIsGod]

I think it's funnier that he actually believes the stuff he posts. No matter how insane or made up (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2841679&postcount=6) it tends to be.

El Oh El.


How the fuck did I miss that?

[MannyIsGod]

There should be proper oversight. I don't know the facts surrounding the particular issue. I'd like to believe it is properly done, but I really don't know.

I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.

[MannyIsGod]

Another 30k voted today in Bexar County.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3213/2964743915_8c84158441_o.png

[hitmanyr2k]

I've never been but aren't there a lot of conservatives in Pittsburgh?

I live in Pittsburgh and I would say it's more of a moderate area leaning left.

[boutons_]

"one top Republican campaign official who says Barack Obama's ground game is unlike anything we've ever seen before: "This is the greatest ground game they've ever put together," he told ABC News on the condition of anonymity. "It's scary."

"He said Obama holds a considerable ground game advantage over McCain"

http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/10/its-a-whole-dif.html

[Bartleby]

The Powell endorsement is starting to help Obama pull in independents.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/?hpid=topnews

[boutons_]

http://www.chrisweigant.com/blog/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/obamaev09.jpg

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/electoral-math----obama-h_b_137039.html

[MannyIsGod]

Nearly 10% of the county's registered voters have already cast their ballot in early voting.

[Findog]

Nearly 10% of the county's registered voters have already cast their ballot in early voting.

I'm voting Saturday. The polls close before I get off work everyday this week.

[JoeChalupa]

I too will be voting on Saturday so I don't get slammed. (http://www.cnnbcvideo.com/index.html?r=31274&id=14591-2950617-xCU3Zrx&nid=U_kSWcTRbr.9jkcSrf7KwTk1NTIzMg--)

[BRHornet45]

Nearly 10% of the county's registered voters have already cast their ballot in early voting.

and son I guarantee that at least 6% of that 10% voted for Senator John Sidney McCain!!!!

[JoeChalupa]

and son I guarantee that at least 6% of that 10% voted for Senator John Sidney McCain!!!!

In Texas maybe. :lmao

[BRHornet45]

In Texas maybe. :lmao

son!!!! joey you make me laugh!! so funnyyyyyyy. you are going to be crying all night long on Nov 4th and watching re-runs of your Lord Baracks speeches on youtube screaming "why!!!!???? this was the year of our Messiah!!!!!"

[Bartleby]

son!!!! joey you make me laugh!! so funnyyyyyyy. you are going to be crying all night long on Nov 4th and watching re-runs of your Lord Baracks speeches on youtube screaming "why!!!!???? this was the year of our Messiah!!!!!"

You won't be posting in the political forum after Nov. 4.

[JoeChalupa]

son!!!! joey you make me laugh!! so funnyyyyyyy. you are going to be crying all night long on Nov 4th and watching re-runs of your Lord Baracks speeches on youtube screaming "why!!!!???? this was the year of our Messiah!!!!!"

I'll still be here no matter what. I've said all along that this race is not over and that Obama IS the underdog. While I like what I see in the polls the only one that matters is the on on Nov. 4. It won't be the first election where the candidate of my choice does not win...or the last. It happens.

[RandomGuy]

[brhornets, y]ou won't be posting in the political forum after Nov. 4.

Trolls don't die that easily.

[RandomGuy]

Nearly 10% of the county's registered voters have already cast their ballot in early voting.

Wow.

What a ride this has been.

I swear we are going to see a massive jump in ER admits on Nov 5. All those politcal analysts are going to get the DT's.

[MannyIsGod]

Can you believe we're almost into the single digits regarding days before the election?

One thing that you can't help but notice in the corporate media is how they keep trying to paint the race as artificially close and how begrudgingly they are with information that shows this race as anything but close. They must be terrified about poor ratings. I promise you if Obama was down 3 -4 points in the polls we'd be seeing so many stories about the cell phone gap, the youth turnout, and AA turnout.

Anyway, I don't think they have to worry miuch on the ratings front. People are going to watch to see this unfold regardless of the margin of victory. Its historical.

[LnGrrrR]

That reminds me... gotta mail off my absentee ballot!

[Cry Havoc]

Can you believe we're almost into the single digits regarding days before the election?

One thing that you can't help but notice in the corporate media is how they keep trying to paint the race as artificially close and how begrudgingly they are with information that shows this race as anything but close. They must be terrified about poor ratings. I promise you if Obama was down 3 -4 points in the polls we'd be seeing so many stories about the cell phone gap, the youth turnout, and AA turnout.

Anyway, I don't think they have to worry miuch on the ratings front. People are going to watch to see this unfold regardless of the margin of victory. Its historical.

Just curious Manny. How effective do you think Obama will be as CiC, assuming he wins on election day? Do you think we'll remember him more as a Hoover (we could even name the housing industry, "Barracks" :lol ) or a Truman? Or neither? Will his ethnicity be a lasting legacy, or will he just be remembered as another President for the plans and ideas he had?

I think, if nothing else, he could represent the idea that Americans CAN stand up and make an unprecedented change in our political views. While it's true that to really start changing things, we need a 3rd (or 4th or 5th) legitimate party to run for office, the fact is that Obama came from virtually nowhere to beat one of the most assured incumbents in history, even if Hillary wasn't technically an incumbent. He also is indicative that more and more Americans are starting to care about politics again -- which is incredibly important, perhaps more so than anything else in this campaign.

Sadly, it also shows how incredibly divided our media has become. This obviously is not the first time that it's been said, but America needs to call for more objective reporting. Will that happen? I doubt it. But the most interesting thing about this election, in hindsight, will be how the American (and world) mass media portrays the Obama presidency. America is in dire need of a leader to step up, end our debt, and forecast a message of peace throughout the world. It took Europe 8000+ years to get to a state of relative peace... if this country can do the same in ~300, I think that would stand as a remarkable achievement, even long after this nation has ceded it's complete economic, scientific, and military dominance of the world.

[JoeChalupa]

I think Barack will do just fine but he or McCain will inherit some major issues that will need to be resolved and it won't be easy. But I do think he'll surround himself with a much better administration than Bush did.

[MannyIsGod]

Man I had a long response laid out but I lost it due to blue screens. I'll type it up later when I'm not on my crappy laptop.

[boutons_]

Polls Show McCain Leaning Into a Headwind

By Dan Balz
A big batch of battleground polls came out early Thursday and brought almost universally bad news for John McCain. The Republican nominee's path to the presidency is now extremely precarious and may depend on something unexpected taking control of a campaign that appears to have swung hard toward Barack Obama since the end of the debates.

There were eight polls produced by the Big Ten Battleground Poll group. Obama not only leads in all eight states by hefty margins but has improved his standing since the last time the group surveyed these states.

The numbers are startling.

Obama leads by 12 points in Ohio,

by 11 points in Pennsylvania and

by 13 points in Wisconsin.

In Michigan, where McCain's campaign has pulled out, the lead is 22 points.

In Indiana, a strong red state, the Obama lead is 10 points, which is larger than in other recent polls.

Quinnipiac University released polls of three battlegrounds that it has been surveying regularly this cycle:

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Obama leads in all three.

In these surveys, Obama's lead in Pennsylvania is 13 points.

In Ohio, which is a must-win for McCain, the lead is a whopping 14 points.

The one bright spot for McCain, if you can call it that, is Florida, where Obama's lead is just 5 points and slightly narrower than it was the last time Quinnipiac surveyed the Sunshine State. But that's not really a bright spot. McCain can't afford to lose Florida any more than he can afford to lose Ohio.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/23/polls_show_mccain_leaning_into.html?hpid=topnews

[whottt]

I've been working the Early voting all this week...that's why I haven't been on the forum much.

Austin is the most liberal city in the state and if the African American/youth/minority turnout is similar in other liberal areas to what I have seen so far...Obama's fucked.

The African American demographic that is supposed to be turning out for him isn't turning out for him in Austin so far...not even in East Austin.

When we work East Austin it's slow and relaxing...

When we work the more conservative areas of Austin it is a non-stop slam.

If this is the way turnout is going in other areas of Austin...I don't even know if Obama will win Austin..and I'd be truly fucking amazed if that were to happen.

[DarkReign]

I've been working the Early voting all this week...that's why I haven't been on the forum much.

Austin is the most liberal city in the state and if the African American/youth/minority turnout is similar in other liberal areas to what I have seen so far...Obama's fucked.

The African American demographic that is supposed to be turning out for him isn't turning out for him in Austin so far...not even in East Austin.

When we work East Austin it's slow and relaxing...

When we work the more conservative areas of Austin it is a non-stop slam.

If this is the way turnout is going in other areas of Austin...I don't even know if Obama will win Austin..and I'd be truly fucking amazed if that were to happen.

Austin?

As in Austin, Texas?

This will somehow "fuck" Obama in exactly what way?

[whottt]

Austin?

As in Austin, Texas?

This will somehow "fuck" Obama in exactly what way?

Inspite of Texas being a Red State Austin is really liberal one of the most liberal cities in the country...Kerry stomped Bush in Travis Co in 2004. 56% of the vote to 42%.

If turnout is similar in other liberal strongholds to what I have seen so far(most specifically a decided lack of African American and Hispanic turnout)...Obama has got some serious issues.

Are you from Detroit?

IF you are you probably think Texas is a bunch of cactus' and we all stand around steers in our cowboy hats...

Austin is not like that at all...it's very liberal.

[TheMadHatter]

Inspite of Texas being a Red State Austin is really liberal one of the most liberal cities in the country...Kerry stomped Bush in Travis Co in 2004. 56% of the vote to 42%.

If turnout is similar in other liberal strongholds to what I have seen so far(most specifically a decided lack of African American and Hispanic turnout)...Obama has got some serious issues.

Are you from Detroit?

IF you are you probably think Texas is a bunch of cactus' and we all stand around steers in our cowboy hats...

Austin is not like that at all...it's very liberal.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3050/2968423354_dc64bff338_o.png

No.

[Cry Havoc]

Inspite of Texas being a Red State Austin is really liberal one of the most liberal cities in the country...Kerry stomped Bush in Travis Co in 2004. 56% of the vote to 42%.

If turnout is similar in other liberal strongholds to what I have seen so far(most specifically a decided lack of African American and Hispanic turnout)...Obama has got some serious issues.

Are you from Detroit?

IF you are you probably think Texas is a bunch of cactus' and we all stand around steers in our cowboy hats...

Austin is not like that at all...it's very liberal.

The Kool-aide must taste really good today.

[Mr. Peabody]

Inspite of Texas being a Red State Austin is really liberal one of the most liberal cities in the country...Kerry stomped Bush in Travis Co in 2004. 56% of the vote to 42%.

If turnout is similar in other liberal strongholds to what I have seen so far(most specifically a decided lack of African American and Hispanic turnout)...Obama has got some serious issues.

Are you from Detroit?

IF you are you probably think Texas is a bunch of cactus' and we all stand around steers in our cowboy hats...

Austin is not like that at all...it's very liberal.

The Black vote has been turning out in record numbers during early voting in other states. I don't know how well your experience at your polling location in Austin (in state that has no chance of going blue, no real GOTV effort, and very little ad money) indicates what is happening across the country.

[PixelPusher]

The Black vote has been turning out in record numbers during early voting in other states. I don't know how well your experience at your polling location in Austin (in state that has no chance of going blue, no real GOTV effort, and very little ad money) indicates what is happening across the country.
It goes without saying, but whottt projects everything through the narrow prism of his own bias. The idea that a majority of Americans don't see things the way he does is unimaginable to him.

[DarkReign]

Inspite of Texas being a Red State Austin is really liberal one of the most liberal cities in the country...Kerry stomped Bush in Travis Co in 2004. 56% of the vote to 42%.

If turnout is similar in other liberal strongholds to what I have seen so far(most specifically a decided lack of African American and Hispanic turnout)...Obama has got some serious issues.

Are you from Detroit?

IF you are you probably think Texas is a bunch of cactus' and we all stand around steers in our cowboy hats...

Austin is not like that at all...it's very liberal.

Yes, I am from Detroit Metro Area...No, I make no assumptions about Texas or Texans. Second largest state in the union tells me there are a lot of different people there , with different views right off the bat.

I just meant that Austin, Texas is only an indicator for Austin, Texas (maybe Texas in general, but no further).

Texas being a wholly red state. Therefore, not much of a surprise, IMO, nor of any implication in regards to BHO's electoral chase.

Thats all.

[Findog]

Yes, I am from Detroit Metro Area...No, I make no assumptions about Texas or Texans. Second largest state in the union tells me there are a lot of different people there , with different views right off the bat.

I just meant that Austin, Texas is only an indicator for Austin, Texas (maybe Texas in general, but no further).

Texas being a wholly red state. Therefore, not much of a surprise, IMO, nor of any implication in regards to BHO's electoral chase.

Thats all.

McCain was up 54% to 44% in the last poll taken here in Texas.

[JoeChalupa]

Obama has no chance of taking Texas. None, nada.

[DarkReign]

McCain was up 54% to 44% in the last poll taken here in Texas.


Obama has no chance of taking Texas. None, nada.

I never said he did. :wtf

EDITED: re-reading my post, I can see why you might think I was insinuating it. Let me be clear, I never thought BHO had even the slightest chance at Texas.

My whole point was, Texas is Texas. Because a typically liberal part of Texas (Austin) seems to be voting Republican en masse (according to Whottt) still is not an indicator of other states voting trends and habits.

Put it this way, any part of Texas voting overwhelmingly Republican just isnt much of a surprise to me.

Admittedly, Im no pollster, so whatever.

[JoeChalupa]

I never said he did. :wtf

I know but I'm not on the fence about that.

[DarkReign]

I know but I'm not on the fence about that.

:lmao....dick

[MannyIsGod]

LOL whott is at one polling location, doesn't give us figures, just gives us anecdotes about a city with a relatively small African American population and yet in places like GA with a much larger AA populatino we're saying huge turnouts during early voting.

K, Obama is screwed.

[romad_20]

LOL whott is at one polling location, doesn't give us figures, just gives us anecdotes about a city with a relatively small African American population and yet in places like GA with a much larger AA populatino we're saying huge turnouts during early voting.

K, Obama is screwed.

Another question is why even reference Austin. Its going to go Obama by a large margin anyway. What would be the purpose in doing a get out the vote program here? I think Obama will pull 60% in Austin.

[Findog]

I never said he did. :wtf

EDITED: re-reading my post, I can see why you might think I was insinuating it. Let me be clear, I never thought BHO had even the slightest chance at Texas.

My whole point was, Texas is Texas. Because a typically liberal part of Texas (Austin) seems to be voting Republican en masse (according to Whottt) still is not an indicator of other states voting trends and habits.

Put it this way, any part of Texas voting overwhelmingly Republican just isnt much of a surprise to me.

Admittedly, Im no pollster, so whatever.

At this point I have a hard time with the integrity of whottt's "anecodotal evidence." Would he tell the truth if AAs were jamming the polling stations in East Austin?

[Findog]

In my neighborhood in West Fort Worth, McCain yard signs and bumper stickers far outnumber Obama/Biden signs. I'd say the ratio is 3:1. In whottt logic, that means McCain is headed for a nationwide landslide.

[Cry Havoc]

Wow. Between the fruit fly comment, the ridiculous matter with the "B" assault, and the Palin clothing outrage, these past 72 hours have been absolutely destructive to the McCain campaign.

[whottt]

LOL whott is at one polling location, doesn't give us figures, just gives us anecdotes about a city with a relatively small African American population and yet in places like GA with a much larger AA populatino we're saying huge turnouts during early voting.

K, Obama is screwed.



I'm not at one polling location...I move around the city. I don't want to get into specific vote totals mainly because I don't think I'm really allowed to do so...I'll just say the turn out I've seen isn't what I was epecting in Austin. I was expecting a much better turnout.

[ChumpDumper]

Texas is going for McCain!

You heard it here first!

[Cry Havoc]

I'm not at one polling location...I move around the city. I don't want to get into specific vote totals mainly because I don't think I'm really allowed to do so...I'll just say the turn out I've seen isn't what I was epecting in Austin. I was expecting a much better turnout.

1 city in one of the reddest states in the Union = THE ENTIRE NATION ZOMG.

[ElNono]

I think Obama should concede... I mean, you need more irrefutable evidence from whottt?

[Cry Havoc]

I think Obama should concede... I mean, you need more irrefutable evidence from whottt?

They just outlined a possible scenario that (if Colorado goes to Obama) there is a good chance that even if McCain gets Pennsylvania to flip, Obama still wins the election 270 to 268. Insane. This race is over unless something drastic happens.

[whottt]

Goddamn you guys are fucking idiots...it's not that hard to understand what I am saying.

[ElNono]

Goddamn you guys are fucking idiots...it's not that hard to understand what I am saying.

That New York is going red? :lmao

[MannyIsGod]

Goddamn you guys are fucking idiots...it's not that hard to understand what I am saying.

No you're right. its really easy to understand the assertions you're making. That doesn't make them any less stupid or funny whottt.

[boutons_]

http://images.politico.com/global/v3/homelogo.gif (http://www.politico.com/)

Polls: White support for Obama at historic level
By: David Paul Kuhn
October 24, 2008 09:45 PM EST

Barack Obama, the first black major party nominee, is positioned to win the largest share of white voters of any Democrat in more than three decades, according to an exclusive Politico analysis of recent Gallup and Pew Research Center polling.

The most recent two weeks of Gallup polling, which includes roughly 13,000 interviews, show 44 percent of non-Hispanic white voters presently support Obama — the highest number for a Democrat since 47 percent of whites backed Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Until the stock market swoon in mid-September, Obama had never reached 40 percent among white voters.

No Democrat has won a majority of white voters since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. John McCain has shuffled between 48 percent and 50 percent support in recent weeks — which would be the lowest share for a Republican candidate in a two-man race since Barry Goldwater's run.

If Obama's share holds, it would top the 43 percent of white voters who backed Bill Clinton in 1996, when the Democrat won a plurality among white females and 38 percent of white men, the best performance by a Democrat in all those categories since 1976.

Before the party conventions, Obama's support among white men had never passed 35 percent. In September, he matched Clinton's level of support, and last week he jumped five points to 43 percent.

“That is amazing,” Obama’s pollster Cornell Belcher said after those numbers were read to him.

“It was already a change election and now you have a cross pressure of the economy,” he said, causing whites “who have not been voting for white Democrats" to back Obama.

A Politico breakdown of the Pew polling shows dramatic improvement for Obama among whites since early September on the question of who would do a better job "improving the economy." White women, who last month were split, now believe Obama will do a better job “improving the economy” by a 49 to 35 percent margin. White men, who had favored McCain by 10 points, are now split with 41 percent preferring Obama and 43 percent McCain.

About half of whites say the economy is the most important issue in this campaign, while 8 percent said Iraq and 6 percent terrorism, according to the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll covering Monday through Thursday.

In a similar poll in mid-October 2004, white voters were evenly split, with 26 percent citing the economy as the most important issue, while 25 percent said Iraq and 21 percent said terrorism.

A new Public Policy Polling report shows Obama's newfound leads in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida result from gains among white voters.

“Even as Obama continues to trail by a good amount with whites overall in these states, he’s winning with them on the issue foremost on voters’ minds this year,” the report concluded. “There’s not much doubt the economy is the main factor causing whites who voted Republican for president in 2004 to go Democratic this year. That is the single biggest factor driving his lead in the polls across the country right now.”

Only 7 percent of voters today are satisfied with the direction of the country, the lowest number in Gallup’s history. The reason, Gallup repeatedly notes, is the economy.

A new report by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research found that in 13 battleground states, rural voters — nine in 10 of whom are white — were split, with 46 percent backing Obama and 45 percent McCain. In September these voters favored McCain by 10 points .

The report found that Obama’s “improvement is driven by rising voter concerns over the economy in the aftermath of the collapse on Wall Street.”

A recent analysis by Gallup of some 40,000 interviews found that Obama's lead over McCain “has risen proportionately when the percentage of Americans who are negative about the U.S. economy increases.”

McCain maintains large advantages over Obama with white voters on issues ranging from instituting a “wise foreign policy”

(:lol McBottomGun "wise" about anything? :lol)

to “defending the nation” to “dealing with immigration.” But all of these issues, which have tended to draw whites toward the Republican party, have been eclipsed amongst voter concerns by the market dives.

Pew recently found that 35 percent of whites said they are “most concerned about the financial markets” specifically, compared with 17 percent of blacks.

Eight-six percent of white Democrats now support Obama, roughly equal to what John F. Kerry earned in 2004. Until the economic crisis began, that number had been in the 70s, on par with Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Clinton in 1992.

More than eight in 10 white working-class Democrats now back Obama, roughly a 20 percentage point rise compared to the week before the Democratic convention.

Obama also splits white independents with McCain, with 46 percent backing each candidate, a performance unseen by a Democrat since Clinton in 1996. In the past week, Obama’s support has slightly waned with independent white working-class men, the largest group of independents. But he has gained with women in the same bloc.

Until the market collapse, Obama was narrowly losing white Catholics. He's now opened up a 54 percent to 39 percent lead, according to Pew.

While Obama’s support among whites under age 30 has long been stronger than recent Democratic nominees, he's now within single digits among white voters age 50 to 64 as well as seniors, according to Pew.

It remains to be seen if Obama's polling numbers among whites translate into support within the privacy of the election booth. About one in five voters say they “personally” know someone who will “not vote for Obama because he is black.”

But the economy, in Belcher's view, has mitigated even the role of race. “We are seeing race being trumped by economic concerns and overall changes in the direction of the country in a fundamental way,” he said. “That is perhaps pushing aside, for the first time in our cultural history, race as a debilitating obstacle.”
© 2008 Capitol News Company, LLC
http://images.politico.com/global/irides.jpg (http://www.irides.com/)

=========

So it's black, Muslim, terrorist-palling HUSSEIN's WH to lose. How could that happen in the next 11 days?

[Bartleby]

Obama's average lead has slowly but steadily climbed back up to 8 points and he enjoys a 7 to 1 advantage in terms of advertising frequency in some regions.

I suspect he may be close to his ceiling and I know that conventional wisdom suggests the race will tighten up at the end, but barring a terrorist attack or major gaffe I don't really see that happening.

[ChumpDumper]

Folks who aren't die-hard Democrats are voting for Obama out of sheer incredulity at McCain's ridiculous actions since and including the Palin pick.

[TheMadHatter]

It's funny how McCain showed how poor of a leader he would be simply through his campaign decisions in the last few months.

[Warlord23]

Though I hope I'm proved wrong, I believe we will see some semblance of a Bradley effect come into play. That, combined with the tried-and-trusted Republican tactics of voter supression, will make this a closer race than the polls have us believe.

I don't see Obama winning 340 EVs and having an 8% lead in the popular vote. It will be much closer, probably around 300 EVs and a 3% vote share lead. Like I said, I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong, but till then my cynicism is justified.

[MannyIsGod]

What is your cynicism justified by?

[Findog]

What is your cynicism justified by?

http://buffalobeast.com/132/friedman_interview.htm

A McCain win wouldn't shock me, but I would be highly suspect of its legitimacy.

[boutons_]

"With less than two weeks left in the presidential contest, Barack Obama (http://www.newsweek.com/related.aspx?subject=Barack+Obama) continues to hold a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain (http://www.newsweek.com/related.aspx?subject=John+McCain) according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll (http://www.newsweek.com/id/165570). Among registered voters nationwide, Obama now leads McCain by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. Among likely voters, Obama's lead is similarly strong, 53 percent to 41 percent."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/165586

[MannyIsGod]

Spent today canvassing in OH and and for the first time I came across a neighborhood filled with fear of voter intimidation and fraud. This was a 99% African American working class neighborhood (and if this neighborhood is considered anti-American you're out of your mind - pure working class American neighborhood) and almost everyone we talked to about early voting was afraid of shenanigans. That being said, man Toledo is not a source of McCain Palin support as far as I could tell.

And turnout? We spoke with a family where the 85+ matriarch and patriarch where both voting for the first time ever. Stories like that everywhere. People are fired up and receptive and they want to change whats happening to them.