How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Warlord23]

What is your cynicism justified by?

2002 - New Hampshire Senate election (http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2004/December/04_crm_768.htm)

2004 - Presidential Election (http://web.archive.org/web/20060210111239/http://www.ac4vr.com/reports/072005/republicanincidents.html)

2006 Virginia Senate election (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/16105)

2008 - Michigan (http://michiganmessenger.com/4076/lose-your-house-lose-your-vote)

2008 - Montana (http://www.mtstandard.com/articles/2008/10/05/opinion/hjjbijjejjigfj.txt)

There is a reason the GOP knows how to win close elections.

[ElNono]

Lets just hope is not a close election, then

[boutons_]

The Unmarried Electorate: 60% Obama, 33% McCain

"Registered voters who are unmarried (divorced, widowed, or have always been single) favor Obama over McCain, 60% to 33% (http://www.gallup.com/poll/108055/Candidate-Support-Marital-Status.aspx). Married people, in contrast, favor McCain, 50% to 43%."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bella-depaulo/the-unmarried-electorate_b_137891.html?view=print

Does being married make you stupid? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3010/2975296897_c21878d89e_o.png

:lmao @ the Arizona poll. Nate of 538 hints that more polls like this are on their way out of that state. That's simply funny as hell if true.

[boutons_]

Is Rove telling the truth for once? :lol



Rove On McCain: "Very Steep Hill To Climb" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/rove-on-mccain-very-steep_n_137969.html)

from HuffingtonPost Full Feed (http://www.google.com/reader/view/feed/http%3A%2F%2Ffeeds.huffingtonpost.com%2Fhuffington post%2Fraw_feed) by The Huffington Post News Editors
John McCain has a "very steep hill to climb" to win the election, former White House adviser Karl Rove told "Fox News Sunday."
Rove, nicknamed "The Architect" for his role in helping President Bush win the last two elections, gave a sober assessment of McCain's chances, explaining that Barack Obama is ahead with 317 electoral votes, according to his own electoral map.

Rove forecast that Virginia, Colorado, Indiana and Ohio would go Obama's way and that McCain has to win back those states and dominate the remaining battleground states to have any chance of winning: (http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/rove-mccain-got-a-very-steep-hill-to-climb-2008-10-26.html)
"In order to -- in order for McCain to win, he's got a very steep hill to climb. He's got to win all of the toss-up states, 64 electoral votes, all the yellow-shaded states on the map. Then he needs to strip away Ohio and Indiana with 31 electoral votes to get him to 252. And then he needs to either win Colorado and Virginia, which gets him to 274, or win one of them plus Pennsylvania, which would get him to 282 or 286. It's a steep uphill climb."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/rove-on-mccain-very-steep_n_137969.html

[boutons_]

Meanwhile, old sick McSenile is making up shit again, cherry picking the polls like ducks, choosing the ones that show him only 5 pts behind.

"The Republican candidate told Brokaw that he can "guarantee" (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14951.html) victory come election night in what he claims will be a tight race that will keep Americans "up late."" :lol :lol

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/McCain_on_Polls_I_dont_agree_1026.html

[dg7md]

Meanwhile, old sick McSenile is making up shit again, cherry picking the polls like ducks, choosing the ones that show him only 5 pts behind.

"The Republican candidate told Brokaw that he can "guarantee" (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14951.html) victory come election night in what he claims will be a tight race that will keep Americans "up late."" :lol :lol

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/McCain_on_Polls_I_dont_agree_1026.html

You couldn't expect him to say much less than this.

[boutons_]

Yes, I could, I him to be humbled by the shit hole he's dug for himself, but that he'll keep on fighting FOR HIMSELF,

(and letting the rest of down-ticket Repugs go down with him).

He could say that he and his team look at all the polls like everybody else, admit a little reality into his view, but he'll keep fighting.

He's resurrected the already-dead Rezko-HUSSEIN association, as if we all hadn't already exhausted that months ago. He's desperate, grabbing at straws, hanging by his fingernails.

Guranteeing victory at this point shows, AGAIN, how senile and out of touch with reality McLoser is.

Fellow Arizona GOP Senator Voices Doubt McCain Will Winhttp://www.google.com/reader/ui/2412528845-go-to.gif (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/fellow-arizona-gop-senato_n_137917.html)

from HuffingtonPost Full Feed (http://www.google.com/reader/view/feed/http%3A%2F%2Ffeeds.huffingtonpost.com%2Fhuffington post%2Fraw_feed) by The Huffington Post News Editors

Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl expressed some doubt in a recent interview that his seatmate, John McCain, will be elected president next month.


During a visit to the Arizona Daily Star last week for an editorial board meeting, Kyl resurrected an old quote from Arizona Democrat Mo Udall, who ran for president in 1976 and famously quipped that Arizona is the only state in the union where a mother can't tell her son that he can grow up to be president.
"Unfortunately, I think John McCain might be added to that long list of Arizonans who ran for president but were never elected," Kyl said, listing Republican Barry Goldwater, Udall and Democrat Bruce Babbitt. "Maybe, we'll be able to say Arizona's the only state where your child can't grow up to be president. Let's hope that doesn't happen," the Republican added

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/fellow-arizona-gop-senato_n_137917.html

[boutons_]

75% of Jews support the Muslim terrorist for President

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031176.html

[smeagol]

Looks like McCain will get his ass handed come election day . . .

[florige]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/


This is a pretty cool map guys.

[ElNono]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

This is a pretty cool map guys.

That's CNN for you, completely in the bag for anything Democrat. :rolleyes

[JoeChalupa]

I'll wait to see the map after election day. It ain't over yet people!!! Get out there and BARACK THE VOTE!!!!!!! YES WE CAN!!!!

[whottt]

And turnout?


Yes turnout...I worked in a nursing home that's almost exclusively African American yesterday, @200 residents...

I don't know much about who is voting for who but I'd say 100% of the votes went to Obama just based on my gut...and there were definitely a few people voting for the first time in their lives...people in their 80's...

Problem is...there were only 10-15 of them, that is a recurrent trend at the places I am working.

I worked 12 hours on the Eastside on Friday...20 something votes total.


Now conversely, when I've worked nursing homes or retirement communities in the West...we usually do over a hundred people in about 2 hours.

[TheMadHatter]

Yes turnout...I worked in a nursing home that's almost exclusively African American yesterday, @200 residents...

I don't know much about who is voting for who but I'd say 100% of the votes went to Obama just based on my gut...and there were definitely a few people voting for the first time in their lives...people in their 80's...

Problem is...there were only 10-15 of them, that is a recurrent trend at the places I am working.

I worked 12 hours on the Eastside on Friday...20 something votes total.


Now conversely, when I've worked nursing homes or retirement communities in the West...we usually do over a hundred people in about 2 hours.

Court-ordered community service?

[whottt]

Court-ordered community service?


Some of us don't need a court order to perfom our civic duties. I'll let you get back to your important message board posting now...

[Sarah Palin]

Some of us don't need a court order to perfom our civic duties. I'll let you get back to your important message board posting now...

He's alive!!! I really need you right now!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

Yes turnout...I worked in a nursing home that's almost exclusively African American yesterday, @200 residents...

I don't know much about who is voting for who but I'd say 100% of the votes went to Obama just based on my gut...and there were definitely a few people voting for the first time in their lives...people in their 80's...

Problem is...there were only 10-15 of them, that is a recurrent trend at the places I am working.

I worked 12 hours on the Eastside on Friday...20 something votes total.


Now conversely, when I've worked nursing homes or retirement communities in the West...we usually do over a hundred people in about 2 hours.

I'm not saying what your posting is wrong but lets put it the proper context.

Texas.

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3283/2978969093_4abd305746_o.png

Just another day of Obama domination. As you were.

[JoeChalupa]

Keep it to continue!

[MannyIsGod]

Oh btw, 2 more Arizona polls that show Obama pretty damn close. Thats just fucking hilarious.

[boutons_]

Stevens is roadkill, Repugnant Senate leader Mitch (104 filibusters in 2 years of Dem majority) McConnell can't even guarantee a win in KY.

60 Dem Senators, obstructionist/filibuster-proof, is within reach.

[boutons_]

a cool internactive map going back to 1948 showing which state was red/blue and electoral totals.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7693060.stm

[MannyIsGod]

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/Tol1.jpg

Toledo campaign HQ - pretty damn busy the day we were there. (McCain office down the street looked dead)

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/tol2.jpg

The neighborhood we canvassed was pretty much this x 100 up and down the streets. They show Obama a lot of love. A lot of UAW union signs and generally a neighborhood where the families are tied to local industry pretty tightly.

http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/tolsigns.jpg
http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa136/Msalgado80/uawsign.jpg

[ChumpDumper]

So basically you were in the anti-American part of Ohio.

[MannyIsGod]

So basically you were in the anti-American part of Ohio.

There was a mosque down the street. No lie. I guess that settles it.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

WTF were you doing in Ohio?

Nothing good comes from Ohio.

Nothing.

[exstatic]

WTF were you doing in Ohio?

Nothing good comes from Ohio.

Nothing.

Bo came from Ohio.

[Findog]

There was a mosque down the street. No lie. I guess that settles it.

Why do you hate America?

[ElNono]

Saw quite a bit of Obama/Biden signs in the PA-NJ border (bordering the delaware river) over the weekend.

[Findog]

Saw quite a bit of Obama/Biden signs in the PA-NJ border (bordering the delaware river) over the weekend.

The Oak Cliff area in Dallas is Obama country - the poor minority parts, the white urban hipster parts, and the extremely wealthy parts. Nearly every damn lawn had an Obama sign.

Meanwhile, my West Fort Worth neighborhood is McCain territory. His yard signs outnumber Obama 3:1. :depressed

[MannyIsGod]

Massive voter fraud being perpetrated in FL:



Crist extends early voting hours

Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday afternoon issued an order expanding the hours of early voting up to 12 hours a day through Saturday, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and a total of 12 weekend hours, between 7 a.m. Saturday and 7 p.m. Sunday. (The law allowed for a maximum of eight hours a day and a total of eight on the weekend).
At a hastily arranged news conference, Crist said the right to vote is sacred and that "many have fought and died for this right." He said he consulted a leading Democratic legislator, Rep. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, before issuing his order, and that Gelber knew of a similar order issued by Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002 that dealt with helping voters deal with new equipment. (Buzz audiohere.) (http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/files/cristpresser2008-10-28.mp3)
As to the perception that more early voting helps Democrats, Crist said: "This is not a political decision. This is a people decision." (audio here)
Last week, all nine Democrats in the Florida congressional delegation wrote a letter (http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/files/ltr_to_crist_and_browning_on_voting.pdf)urging him to expand early voting and to order all early voting sites to be open on Sunday.
Early balloting in Florida so far favors Democrats, while Republicans hold an advantage in absentee voting. Waits of up to four hours have been reported in precincts in heavily-Democratic Broward County.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/10/crist-extends-e.html



This is horrible. Who the hell wants to allow more people to vote????


Not the GOP:



"He just blew Florida for John McCain," one plugged in Florida Republican just told me.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Crist_extends_voting_hours.html#comments


:lmao

[JoeChalupa]

McCain is on a roll now and I predict things will begin to tighten up and it is going to be a close finish.
Ladies and gentlemen....I'm getting nervous and yes, my friends I'm watching all the networks and going into full election mode.

Come on BARACK!!! CLOSE THE DEAL!!!

[JoeChalupa]

Thanks for the pics Manny...reminds me of my younger days.

[Bartleby]

Massive voter fraud being perpetrated in FL:


http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/10/crist-extends-e.html



This is horrible. Who the hell wants to allow more people to vote????


Not the GOP:





http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Crist_extends_voting_hours.html#comments


:lmao

They need to make the presidential election a federal holiday. End of story.

[ChumpDumper]

Yeah, everyone will get hammered the night before. The Democrats who are too hungover to vote will be offset by the Republicans who are still drunk and vote for Democrats as a joke.

[MannyIsGod]

We will likely surpass the early voting mark from 2004 today (we've probably already passed it rather) and we still have a full 3 days left of early voting. The last couple of days are always huge. (this is for Bexar County) We have about 860 registered voters in this county so we've already had about a 30% turnout!!!

The turnout is likely to be earth shattering this time around. Election day will be a mad house.

[romad_20]

We will likely surpass the early voting mark from 2004 today (we've probably already passed it rather) and we still have a full 3 days left of early voting. The last couple of days are always huge. (this is for Bexar County) We have about 860 registered voters in this county so we've already had about a 30% turnout!!!

The turnout is likely to be earth shattering this time around. Election day will be a mad house.


I voted at 10:45 AM and there was a line. People were taking off from work to stand in line and vote. The last two elections, it was in and out. I'm curious to see the final numbers after the election.

[MannyIsGod]

I voted at 10:45 AM and there was a line. People were taking off from work to stand in line and vote. The last two elections, it was in and out. I'm curious to see the final numbers after the election.

They update the numbers on a daily basis. As of yesterday we had 225k (and change) votes cast in Bexar county. The total for the entire EV period last time around was 256k and change. Yesterday we had 33k vote so we could easily see that number surpassed tonight when those votes are totaled.

I don't see how anyone (other than whottt) can spin this as beneficial to the GOP and McCain. If there is huge turnout I really wonder what thats going to do to the Senate race here. If I'm Cornyn I don't like these numbers.

Oh yeah, and today's polls:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3159/2982704900_061cdf229d_o.png

[LnGrrrR]

We will likely surpass the early voting mark from 2004 today (we've probably already passed it rather) and we still have a full 3 days left of early voting. The last couple of days are always huge. (this is for Bexar County) We have about 860 registered voters in this county so we've already had about a 30% turnout!!!

The turnout is likely to be earth shattering this time around. Election day will be a mad house.

Bexar county huh? Do you live in San Antone? If so, which part? I used to be stationed at Randolph AFB.

[boutons_]

Weather is a huge factor in turnout.

good weather = higher turnout = better for Dems
(is why Dems push voter registration and Get Out The Vote)

bad weather = lower turnout = better for Repugs
(is why Repgus do voter disenfranchisement/purging/intimidation, sending postcards with wrong polling place, and even wrong voting days)

[MannyIsGod]

Bexar county huh? Do you live in San Antone? If so, which part? I used to be stationed at Randolph AFB.

I think about 80% of this forum likely lives here. I live out by Sea World.

[romad_20]

They update the numbers on a daily basis. As of yesterday we had 225k (and change) votes cast in Bexar county. The total for the entire EV period last time around was 256k and change. Yesterday we had 33k vote so we could easily see that number surpassed tonight when those votes are totaled.

I don't see how anyone (other than whottt) can spin this as beneficial to the GOP and McCain. If there is huge turnout I really wonder what thats going to do to the Senate race here. If I'm Cornyn I don't like these numbers.

Oh yeah, and today's polls:




Don't you know that all this extra turnout in Austin is for McCain? :lol

Where do they update the numbers at? I'm looking for Travis county.

[boutons_]

Crist's name is certainly mud with the RNC and McNasty's team.

Where is Katherine Harris when the Repugs REALLY need her to steal FL?

[romad_20]

:depressed wrong thread

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

Thats a better page than what I've been using. Awesome figures so far.

[MannyIsGod]

To be fair, the lowest totals are from Hidalgo, El Paso, and Cameron counties which are counties that are predominantly Hispanic. That doesn't appear to be very good news until you look at the past totals at this point

El Paso
04

56,623 - 15.23%

08

65,904 - 16.96%

Hidalgo

04

31,587 - 11.71%

08

49,370 - 16.18%

Cameron 04 numbers aren't available because it wasn't in the top 15 counties by population then. Its pretty similar to Hidalgo with regards to demographics though.

But anyway, the point remains that in these places where the voters are a demographic that goes strongly for Obama but does not turnout as well the turnout is DRAMATICALLY increased in early voting so far.

[whottt]

High turnout favors the Democrats


This is one of the great myths of modern American politics...and one that is completely steeped in utter cluelessness.


Tell me...why is high turnout good for the Democrats?


I want to see some evidence of this....


I'll start the ball rolling, the last Presidential election featured a record number of votes cast...the Republicans won.


The last major congressional election featured an extremely low turnout., the Democrats won.

I look back and I see nearly every record breaking turnout of the last 40 years has favored the Republicans....

I want you to show me the reasons high turnout is good for the Democrats...prove this bit of myopia is true.

[MannyIsGod]

This is one of the great myths of modern American politics...and one that is completely steeped in utter cluelessness.


Tell me...why is high turnout good for the Democrats?


I want to see some evidence of this....


I'll start the ball rolling, the last Presidential election featured a record number of votes cast...the Republicans won.


The last major congressional election featured an extremely low turnout., the Democrats won.

I look back and I see nearly every record breaking turnout of the last 40 years has favored the Republicans....

I want you to show me the reasons high turnout is good for the Democrats...prove this bit of myopia is true.

Do you really need to be told why the last presidential election broke turnout records?

[MannyIsGod]

This is one of the great myths of modern American politics...and one that is completely steeped in utter cluelessness.


Tell me...why is high turnout good for the Democrats?


I want to see some evidence of this....


I'll start the ball rolling, the last Presidential election featured a record number of votes cast...the Republicans won.


The last major congressional election featured an extremely low turnout., the Democrats won.

I look back and I see nearly every record breaking turnout of the last 40 years has favored the Republicans....

I want you to show me the reasons high turnout is good for the Democrats...prove this bit of myopia is true.


WHAT? The 2006 congressional election had the best turnout since 1970. Try again?

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

[whottt]

WHAT? The 2006 congressional election had the best turnout since 1970. Try again?

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html


:lmao look at your own list...


It's the only mid term election on that list that had fewer voters in it than the previous Presidential election.

The only one on the entire list...that you provided....


And you think that's a great turnout?


It was the worst turnout since 1960...





It was worse than I thought.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao look at your own list...


It's the only mid term election on that list that had fewer voters in it than the previous Presidential election.

The only one on the entire list...that you provided....


And you think that's a great turnout?


It was the worst turnout since 1960...





It was worse than I thought.

.....


What list are you looking at? If you're unable to read simple numbers then I understand why you think the things you do but what you just typed is absolutely wrong....

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

You can't read charts. I know what you did.

:lmao

Self ownage is best. Go back and look at the chart again.

[Shastafarian]

Yeah I don't know what chart he's reading...

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

You think you're so well informed whottt. Man you've tossed a lot of shit calling people stupid lately which is what makes this sooooooooooo funny.


Why's everyone laughing

[whottt]

:lmao

You can't read charts. I know what you did.

:lmao

Self ownage is best. Go back and look at the chart again.

:lol ok, perhaps I was a bit hasty in reading that chart.


I was looking at the numbers of the voting age population...


That's fucking weird...even still...I'm still right, that's a decline in eligible voters, the first one since 1960...that's not an increase in turnout..that's still fewer eligible voters.


Plus...look at the number of registered voters...that is a huge decline from 2004....it was the lowest total since 1994. That's about what I figured...


You realize that 19 million fewer than the last Presidential election? And 15 million fewer than the last mid-term.

My point still stands...

It's only an impressive turnout when using the standard of a drastic reduction in registered voters. 15 million less than the last mid-term...19 million less than the last Presidential.

[whottt]

:lmao

You think you're so well informed whottt. Man you've tossed a lot of shit calling people stupid lately which is what makes this sooooooooooo funny.



:lol ok I read it wrong...but I'm still right. That's a decline in eligible voters....


I still want to know what caused that...that's weird.

[MannyIsGod]

How is that not an increase in turnout whottt? If the number of eligible voters goes down but the number of voters that turns out goes up how on earth is that not an increase in turnout? Look at the percentages, its not even close.

[Shastafarian]

Look at the percentages before you say something stupid again.

[MannyIsGod]

Look at the percentages before you say something stupid again.

Too late.

[ElNono]

:lol ok, perhaps I was a bit hasty in reading that chart.


I was looking at the numbers of the voting age population...


That's fucking weird...even still...I'm still right, that's a decline in eligible voters, the first one since 1960...that's not an increase in turnout..that's still fewer eligible voters.


Plus...look at the number of registered voters...that is a huge decline from 2004....it was the lowest total since 1994. That's about what I figured...


You realize that 19 million fewer than the last Presidential election? And 15 million fewer than the last mid-term.

My point still stands...

It's only an impressive turnout when using the standard of a drastic reduction in registered voters. 15 million less than the last mid-term...19 million less than the last Presidential.

whottt's world at it's finest....

[whottt]

How is that not an increase in turnout whottt?

If you define turnout as the PCT of registered voters turning out fine...


If there are two people registered and both vote that is a turnout of 100%...is that impressive?





If the number of eligible voters goes down but the number of voters that turns out goes up how on earth is that not an increase in turnout? Look at the percentages, its not even close.

Dude the number of eleigible voters decreased by 1 million..the number of registered voters decreased by 19 mllion...and 15 million over the last mid-term. That's not impressive...that's ambivalence.

[whottt]

Look at the percentages before you say something stupid again.

Eh...I'm not worried about reading the chart incorrectly...that still leaves me with a long way to go to fuck up as much as you guys...I can admit when I fuck up...nothing is gained by pretending I didn't..and yes I know fucked up on the PCT's too.


But you still have to reconcile that huge reduction in registered voters that does not correspond with the decline in eligible voters(which does not make any sense to me btw).

[MannyIsGod]

If you define turnout as the PCT of registered voters turning out fine...


If there are two people registered and both vote that is a turnout of 100%...is that impressive?





Dude the number of eleigible voters decreased by 1 million..the number of registered voters decreased by 19 mllion...and 15 million over the last mid-term. That's not impressive...that's ambivalence.

And yet the number of people who turned out to vote INCREASED.

You can't spin numbers, sorry.

[Shastafarian]

Eh...I'm not worried about reading the chart incorrectly...that still leaves me with a long way to go to fuck up as much as you guys...I can admit when I fuck up...nothing is gained by pretending I didn't..and yes I know fucked up on the PCT's too.


But you still have to reconcile that huge reduction in registered voters that does not correspond with the decline in eligible voters(which does not make any sense to me btw).

I don't have to reconcile anything seeing as how actual voters INCREASED.

[ElNono]

Why's everyone laughing?

:lmao

[whottt]

And yet the number of people who turned out to vote INCREASED.

You can't spin numbers, sorry.


I don't have to reconcile anything seeing as how actual voters INCREASED.


Fine...then compare it to the Presidential Elections...then tell me a bigger turnout favors the Democrats.

[ElNono]

Fine...then compare it to the Presidential Elections...then tell me a bigger turnout favors the Democrats.

IOW, let's change the subject because I got royally owned... :lmao

[boutons_]

Whott the fuck knows something Repug mucky mucks don't. :lol

McCain struggles for upset in Pa.; GOP doubts grow


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/campaign_rdp;_ylt=AhdjETqt8KdWRWtR3iaLDwNg.3QA

[MannyIsGod]

Fine...then compare it to the Presidential Elections...then tell me a bigger turnout favors the Democrats.

OK? The 06 turnout was less than that of the 04 presidential election repeating the pattern that is always in play. The mid term elections are always a lower turnout. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here other than that numbers with commas are a problem for you.

[whottt]

OK? The 06 turnout was less than that of the 04 presidential election repeating the pattern that is always in play. The mid term elections are always a lower turnout. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here other than that numbers with commas are a problem for you.


Since there is a bigger turnout in Presidential Elections and 5 of the last 7 Presidents have been Republicans, 7 of the last 10 if you go back further...I'd say it's slam dunk in my favor that bigger turnouts favor the Republicans.

Plus Republicans have been on the winning side of the most landlsides, including the highest vote totals.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats the most retarded logic I've ever seen used. Instead of comparing equal elections you're going to compare presidential elections to congressional mid term elections? The level to which you are reaching in order to make yourself feel better.

[whottt]

Basically to justify the argument that bigger turnout favors Democrats you have to go back to the early sixties...and you know, the Democrats back then were the guys that had been fighting for freedom everywhere...and nuking the shit out countires.

[whottt]

Thats the most retarded logic I've ever seen used. Instead of comparing equal elections you're going to compare presidential elections to congressional mid term elections? The level to which you are reaching in order to make yourself feel better.



How is it retarded? Because it points to a Democrat ass kicking?


The election with the single biggest voter turnout consistently goes to the Republicans...compare it to other Presidential elections all you want.....

Top 5 PCT:

1960 - 63.1 Democrats
1964 - 61.9 Democrats
1968 - 60.8 Republicans
2004 - 55.3 Republicans
1972 - 55.2 Republicans

Ok since those turnouts kick the shit out of any and all mid terms...


Republicans win...especially since you have to go back to 1964 to beat them...

And BTW, those sorts of Democrats that put up those PCT's are now called Neocons...you know, like Bush, the only modern President in the top 5.

[MannyIsGod]

Basically to justify the argument that bigger turnout favors Democrats you have to go back to the early sixties...and you know, the Democrats back then were the guys that had been fighting for freedom everywhere...and nuking the shit out countires.

Spin high African American turnout being bad for Obama please. Spin high Hispanic turnout being bad for Obama please. Spin high youth turnout being bad for Obama.

1 2 3 go!

[whottt]

Spin high African American turnout being bad for Obama please. Spin high Hispanic turnout being bad for Obama please.

It's not bad...but it's not enough to win, especially since Obama wasn't the first choice among the BIG BLUE STATES...he wasn't the first choice in any of them.



Spin high youth turnout being bad for Obama.

1 2 3 go!

Famous last words :lol


You know there are the exact same PCT of first time voters in this election as Kerry got in 2004?

[Findog]

It's not bad...but it's not enough to win, especially since Obama wasn't the first choice among the BIG BLUE STATES...he wasn't the first choice in any of them.




Which blue states will Obama lose? I'm guessing worst-case scenario, only Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

[whottt]

If high minority turnout was all it took Jesse Jackson would have gotten the nomination back in 84.

[MannyIsGod]

How is it retarded? Because it points to a Democrat ass kicking?


The election with the single biggest voter turnout consistently goes to the Republicans...compare it to other Presidential elections all you want.....

Top 5 PCT:

1960 - 63.1 Democrats
1964 - 61.9 Democrats
1968 - 60.8 Republicans
2004 - 55.3 Republicans
1972 - 55.2 Republicans

Ok since those turnouts kick the shit out of any and all mid terms...


Republicans win...especially since you have to go back to 1964 to beat them...

And BTW, those sorts of Democrats that put up those PCT's are now called Neocons...you know, like Bush, the only modern President in the top 5.

Answer me this. If we see an increase in turnout this year what demographics will make a disproportional percentage of the new voters?

[MannyIsGod]

You know there are the exact same PCT of first time voters in this election as Kerry got in 2004?

Avatar bet? Sig bet? Title bet? Name it.

Oh and its pretty funny NOW you want to use a percentage to determine a turnout.

[whottt]

Which blue states will Obama lose? I'm guessing worst-case scenario, only Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.



Um...take a look at your sig dipshit.


Goddamn I'm happy you showed up...after getting owned on that chart I felt like the stupidest poster in this thread and now I no longer do...thanks for being here :tu

[MannyIsGod]

If high minority turnout was all it took Jesse Jackson would have gotten the nomination back in 84.

If Jesse Jackson was carrying hispanics the way Obama is then you might have a point.

But even MORE important if minorities made up the same percentages of the population that they do today then you might have a point as well.

[Findog]

Um...take a look at your sig dipshit.

So New York is going blue? You're still going with that? I would've thought by now you'd back off that claim.


Goddamn I'm happy you showed up...after getting owned on that chart I felt like the stupidest poster in this thread and now I no longer do...thanks for being here :tu

The irony of calling anybody stupid when they think New York is going blue. :lol

smh

[florige]

Which blue states will Obama lose? I'm guessing worst-case scenario, only Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.



Man If he loses Penn I am never EVER looking at another poll again.

[Findog]

The worst part of McCain winning this election in a squeaker?

whottt claiming he's vindicated when he predicted a McCain landslide.

[Findog]

Man If he loses Penn I am never EVER looking at another poll again.

I just don't understand how every single poster could be wrong. People bring up Dewey and Truman, but polling methods were less sophisticated and they actually stopped a lot of polling because it was such a foregone conclusion Dewey would win. It's not like Truman made some last-minute surge, his momentum had been building for two months.

Carter led Reagan in a single poll before their final debate, but there was a massive wave to Reagan after it.

[MannyIsGod]

The worst part of McCain winning this election in a squeaker?

whottt claiming he's vindicated when he predicted a McCain landslide.

Yeah no. The worst part of McCain winning is McCain winning.

[Findog]

Yeah no. The worst part of McCain winning is McCain winning.

Well, aside from that. I'm sorry, McCain might win, I am not at all calling this for Obama despite that stupid "It's over!" thread I posted. I am willing to concede this might be a tighter race than the polls are showing, but anybody who thinks New York is going to be a part of his coalition is an idiot.

[florige]

I just don't understand how every single poster could be wrong. People bring up Dewey and Truman, but polling methods were less sophisticated and they actually stopped a lot of polling because it was such a foregone conclusion Dewey would win. It's not like Truman made some last-minute surge, his momentum had been building for two months.

Carter led Reagan in a single poll before their final debate, but there was a massive wave to Reagan after it.




Thats why I don't understand the reasoning of him spending so much time in PA. There has to be something there that they see whereas he has pretty much forgotten about, VA,FL, and OH.... Well not forgotten but you know what I mean.

[Findog]

Thats why I don't understand the reasoning of him spending so much time in PA. There has to be something there that they see whereas he has pretty much forgotten about, VA,FL, and OH.... Well not forgotten but you know what I mean.

Yeah. If Penn were a lost cause, it would make more sense to defend Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio and forego offense. I'm guessing McCain thinks Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are lost causes. That alone + the Kerry States gets Obama to 273. Therefore, he doesn't have to go out and stump in the West, there's bleeding over into other media markets in Ohio if he's stumping in Western Penn, it's closer to stumping in Florida and Virginia. That's the only explanation that makes sense to me - he's conceding Colorado and New Mexico and he needs a big blue state to flip. Pennsylvania and its 21 EVs are the best target.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats why I don't understand the reasoning of him spending so much time in PA. There has to be something there that they see whereas he has pretty much forgotten about, VA,FL, and OH.... Well not forgotten but you know what I mean.


Whats easier? Praying for one miracle in PA or praying for miracles across many states? Now that he's conceded CO he HAS to turn PA in order to have any shot of winning.

He's in PA because it provides him with his only shot for electoral victory. He can't go anywhere else because if he doesn't get PA its over. Its not a decision they made, its a decision the electoral map and Obama's dominance made for them.

[Findog]

Whats easier? Praying for one miracle in PA or praying for miracles across many states? Now that he's conceded CO he HAS to turn PA in order to have any shot of winning.

He's in PA because it provides him with his only shot for electoral victory. He can't go anywhere else because if he doesn't get PA its over. Its not a decision they made, its a decision the electoral map and Obama's dominance made for them.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories...052_Page2.html

What do you make of this, Manny? Wishful thinking?

[MannyIsGod]

bad link - what story is it? If its on politico chances are I read it earlier? Is it the McCain pollster's opinion?

[Findog]

bad link - what story is it? If its on politico chances are I read it earlier? Is it the McCain pollster's opinion?

Yeah, his contention that "Wal Mart women" will carry McCain to victory

[MannyIsGod]

He's predicting a huge turnout made of demographics other than those which are likely to support Obama. I don't know how much to take his story seriously, but I think it is conventional wisdom that an increase in turnout is going to come largely from the groups that usually have lower turnout such as minorities and the youth. White women are a block that tends to vote a decent clip and nothing has shown us that they're breaking overwhelmingly for McCain. I know he looks at it with a finer toothed comb but I don't see how thats a demographic thats going to come out in droves for McCain and outweigh the already impressive turnout numnbers of the other demographics I mentioned as pro Obama.

I'm sure that some bloggers like Nate Silver or the guy at EV.com will take a good look at it and dismantle the opinion in a much better way. I'll just say that everything I've seen on turnout so far does not seem to support what he said.

[Warlord23]

whottt, give it a rest ... your ass has been kicked enough already today. Rest that retard brain of yours for the night and come back for more tomorrow.

[whottt]

Avatar bet? Sig bet? Title bet? Name it.

Oh and its pretty funny NOW you want to use a percentage to determine a turnout.



http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0029/Polling_News___Notes_10_25_08.pdf

Polling News & Notes
Overlooked Recent Polling And Insights • October 25, 2008

Gallup: No Increase In Proportion Of First-Time Voters. Despite media attention on the possibility of a flood
of new voters, a Gallup analysis this week found the number of voters who say they will be voting for the first
time this year - 13% - is identical to the number who said in 2004 they would be voting for the first time. Of
course, high turnout in 2004 (when 16% more voters came to the polls than in 2000) diminished the pool of
possible first-time voters for 2008. So increases in turnout in 2008 may come more from those who have
voted at some point in the past than those who are entirely new to the process.

2008 2004
Voting For First Time 13% 13%
Voted Previously 83% 85%
Do Not Plan To Vote 4% 2%

[whottt]

Yeah, his contention that "Wal Mart women" will carry McCain to victory

Actually...that's not my contention or at least not my only one...keep in mind I'm predicting Obama will wind up with fewer votes than Kerry got in 2004.

You guys keep thinking there's not going to be a price paid for not putting Hillary on the ballot...

I think that's incredibly stupid and shortsighed on ya'lls part....that works under the assumption that all candidates are equal and Americans vote for party over candidate yet there is a mountain of evidence to refute that.

All candidates are not equal...all candidates do not inspire the same people the same way.


If Pat Buchannan had the nomination in 2000 and 2004 he wouldn't have won. If you guys had given the 2004 nomination to anyone but Kerry or Dean you would have won.


But the main reason for my contention? McCain and Palin are much more likeable than W and Cheney were...believe me, it was hard to vote for them....took work for the Democrats to get me to do that....it was a vote cast on pure patriotism, and literally nothing else....

And I don't think you guys are going to pull as many traditional Democratic votes as you think you're goong to...reason being? You didn't put the popular candidate in all the major blue states on the ticket.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0029/Polling_News___Notes_10_25_08.pdf

Polling News & Notes
Overlooked Recent Polling And Insights • October 25, 2008

Gallup: No Increase In Proportion Of First-Time Voters. Despite media attention on the possibility of a flood
of new voters, a Gallup analysis this week found the number of voters who say they will be voting for the first
time this year - 13% - is identical to the number who said in 2004 they would be voting for the first time. Of
course, high turnout in 2004 (when 16% more voters came to the polls than in 2000) diminished the pool of
possible first-time voters for 2008. So increases in turnout in 2008 may come more from those who have
voted at some point in the past than those who are entirely new to the process.

2008 2004
Voting For First Time 13% 13%
Voted Previously 83% 85%
Do Not Plan To Vote 4% 2%

What is it that you want to bet then? And just for the record, we're not talking about first time voters, we're talking about the Youth Vote.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually...that's not my contention or at least not my only one...keep in mind I'm predicting Obama will wind up with fewer votes than Kerry got in 2004.

You guys keep thinking there's not going to be a price paid for not putting Hillary on the ballot...

I think that's incredibly stupid and shortsighed on ya'll part....that works under the assumption that all candidates are equal and Americans vote for party over candidate and there is a mountain of evidence to dispute that.


If Pat Buchannan had the nomination in 2000 and 2004 he wouldn't have won.


But the main reason? McCain and Palin are much more likeable than W and Cheney were...believe me, it was hard to vote for them....took work for the Democrats to get me to do that....it was a vote cast on pure patriotism, and literally nothing else.

We weren't talking about you.

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt name the bet.

Also, which demographics will be disproportionally represented in increased turnout this year?

[florige]

Actually...that's not my contention or at least not my only one...keep in mind I'm predicting Obama will wind up with fewer votes than Kerry got in 2004.

You guys keep thinking there's not going to be a price paid for not putting Hillary on the ballot...

I think that's incredibly stupid and shortsighed on ya'll part....that works under the assumption that all candidates are equal and Americans vote for party over candidate and there is a mountain of evidence to dispute that.


If Pat Buchannan had the nomination in 2000 and 2004 he wouldn't have won.


But the main reason? McCain and Palin are much more likeable than W and Cheney were...believe me, it was hard to vote for them....took work for the Democrats to get me to do that....it was a vote cast on pure patriotism, and literally nothing else.



You think Palin still is likeable as she was at first Whottt?

[MannyIsGod]

I'll give you a hint Whottt. Look for the states with the highest African American population and then find me the states which have the largest increases in early voting turnout compared to 2004.

[florige]

Whats easier? Praying for one miracle in PA or praying for miracles across many states? Now that he's conceded CO he HAS to turn PA in order to have any shot of winning.

He's in PA because it provides him with his only shot for electoral victory. He can't go anywhere else because if he doesn't get PA its over. Its not a decision they made, its a decision the electoral map and Obama's dominance made for them.


Yeah I see since you put it that way....:lol

[whottt]

You think Palin still is likeable as she was at first Whottt?


Absolutely...in fact moreso. The more the media smears her the more I like her...and I'm not the only one.

Remember when you guys were predicting she'd drop out?

[florige]

Absolutely...in fact moreso. The more the media smears her the more I like her...and I'm not the only one.

Remember when you guys were predicting she'd drop out?



I never said that. I don't think I did anyway...:lol
I did like her on SNL though.....

[MannyIsGod]

Absolutely...in fact moreso. The more the media smears her the more I like her...and I'm not the only one.

Remember when you guys were predicting she'd drop out?

Who said that? Oh and your view of reality regarding Palin is incredible as always.

[whottt]

We weren't talking about you.


My bad...since ya'll usually are you'll have to forgive me.

[whottt]

Who said that? Oh and your view of reality regarding Palin is incredible as always.

It was here on the forum...you don't remember it?

Who the fuck do you think you're kidding? The way ya'll attack her non-stop is the purest indicator of how much you fear her.

And do you mean my view that she pulls mega ass ratings and rally turnouts(without bussing them in) while liberal strongholds like MSNBS and the New York Times are on the vege of going out of business?

[MannyIsGod]

It was here on the forum...you don't remember it?

Who the fuck do you think you're kidding? The way ya'll attack her non-stop is the purest indicator of how much you fear her.

And do you mean my view that she pulls mega ass ratings and rally turnouts(without bussing them in) while liberal strongholds like MSNBS and the New York Times are on the vege of going out of business?

You can ignore that McCain's own people hate her now - "Whack Job" is the latest compliment they've bestowed upon her and that the top of her ticket even snubs her. You can also ignore she's got the lowest ratings out of all 4 of the people on the ticket.

Sure, she gets a lot of people from her base to come out. That's just dandy. If the NYT goes out of business soon I"ll eat lots of crow, but we both know thats not going ot happen so why are you making stupid assertions like that?

See LJ, this is exactly what I mean about throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks.

[MannyIsGod]

If it was here on the forum link it. And name the bet in regards to what you said above.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh and answer my question on early voting turnout. You haven't dug enough graves tonight I'd like for you to dig one more.

[ElNono]

It was here on the forum...you don't remember it?

Who the fuck do you think you're kidding? The way ya'll attack her non-stop is the purest indicator of how much you fear her.

And do you mean my view that she pulls mega ass ratings and rally turnouts(without bussing them in) while liberal strongholds like MSNBS and the New York Times are on the vege of going out of business?

LOL, I told you guys he was in the denial state... I mean, this a flat out not acknowledging reality.

[whottt]

I'll give you a hint Whottt. Look for the states with the highest African American population

Total, or PCT?

Look up the PCT and populations of African Americans in states was one of the first things I did when the polls started going crazy actually...I can't recall all the details but I wasn't worried about it except in I believe North Carolina.

I'd been looking at those PCT's all day when I decided the West Virginia polling numbers were a joke...I believe I posted in this thread that day IIRC.


Put it this way...if you are counting on African American turnout to win some of the states Obama is winning inthe polling right now..you are going to be disappointed.



If total is your logic Texas should be going blue...especially when the hispanic vote is considered...are you ready to make the prediction?


Regardless of what you may think...Kerry allegedly pulled an all time high in youth and minority turnout...didn't win him the election...and you know, what no one ever mentions is that youth turnout increase was based almost entirely on African American and Latino turnout...white youth actually decreased IIRC...

That's going to happen again...and a lot of young women like Sarah Palin, plus an estimated 6 million Hillary Democrats are expected to go to McCain, and many more are expected not to vote.







and then find me the states which have the largest increases in early voting turnout compared to 2004.

You want to talk about early voting turnout?


BBIAB, need to reboot and throw some laundry in the wash.

[CubanMustGo]

And do you mean my view that she pulls mega ass ratings and rally turnouts(without bussing them in) while liberal strongholds like MSNBS and the New York Times are on the vege of going out of business?

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/comment/A-pitbull-with-her-teeth.4630318.jp

Published Date: 26 October 2008
By Claire Prentice

THE gutsy, moose-shooting, tax- cutting hockey mom was supposed to be the answer to Republican prayers. But with just nine days to go until the election, 'Palin power' has turned into a nuclear meltdown for John McCain with an opinion poll showing vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin to be more of a liability to his campaign than George W Bush.

As falls from grace go this one has been savage and sudden. After her barnstorming performance at the Republican National Convention in September, Governor Palin was hailed as a right-wing heroine. But the honeymoon period officially ended last week with a series of controversies and gaffes, leading senior conservatives to call for her to leave before the election. (I guess they're all posting on ST) Palin faced problems on the national stage and in her own Alaskan backyard. A series of investigations shed doubts on the way she ran her home state as Governor. On Friday she gave a deposition to the second Troopergate investigation over whether Governor Palin pursued a family vendetta against state trooper Mike Wooten. A first investigation found that Palin abused the powers of her office by firing the state's top public safety official.

Potentially more damaging, the woman who has championed her credentials as a thrifty governor has been accused of fiddling her expenses and taking extravagant family trips at taxpayers' expense.

An investigation by the Associated Press last week found evidence that as governor, Palin used taxpayers' money for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited. The expenses included $21,000 (£13,000) in flights for her daughters including one trip to watch their father in a snowmobile race. On another occasion, Palin claimed for a trip to New York, where she had been invited to attend a five-hour conference but stayed with her daughter, 17-year-old Bristol, for four nights in a luxury hotel costing $700 (£440) per night.

After McCain selected her as his running mate Palin ordered changes to previously filed expense reports for her daughters' travel, adding phrases such as "First Family attending" and "First Family invited" to explain the girls' attendance.

The state is already reviewing nearly $17,000 (£11,000) in per-diem payments to Palin for more than 300 nights she slept at her own home, 40 miles from her satellite office in Anchorage.

Palin's problems were compounded with allegations of cronyism. On Friday a report revealed when Palin was elected Governor of Alaska she gave 100-plus jobs to friends and campaign donors, sometimes without apparent regard to qualifications. A state spokesperson refuted the claims, saying: "We are always seeking the best-qualified folks." :lol

Some commentators questioned whether Palin was qualified to be vice president after an embarrassing TV interview last week. In response to a question posed by a primary school pupil, Palin seemed confused about the powers of the vice president. In the interview she said the VP was in charge of the senate, a novel interpretation of the US constitution which had some political commentators openly mocking her. Republicans said Palin was trying to simplify her description to make it understandable for children.

The clip has been played on a loop on cable TV stations and on the internet. So have separate comments, made during an appearance in North Carolina, that there are some parts of the country that are "pro-America." A number of commentators took this to suggest that Democrat voters were not "real Americans" and that America could be divided into "real America" (the Republican heartlands) and not-real, or unpatriotic America (blue states like New York and California). Palin has since issued an apology.

These public gaffes seem to have impacted on the McCain campaign. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week suggested Palin is more damaging to McCain's chances of becoming president than President George W Bush, whose national approval ratings are in the 20s.

In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Palin disputed such conclusions, and said: "I think those reporters asking those questions should come to some of our rallies and ask some of those in the crowd why it is they are enthused." She added that the crowds see her as representing "hardworking, everyday American families".

But though Palin undoubtedly excites the Republican grass roots, several high-profile conservative commentators have publicly expressed grave doubts about her. They include New York Times columnist David Brooks and Kathleen Parker in the National Review, who wrote an article under the heading 'She's Out of Her League' in which she called for Palin to step down for the sake of her country. Brooks called Palin "a fatal cancer on the Republican Party".

One party insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said, "There are many people in the party who wish she would go back to Alaska. McCain picked her. If he loses, he only has himself to blame."

The Palin meltdown comes as high-profile Republicans follow in the footsteps of former secretary of state Colin Powell, who announced he is crossing party lines to back Democrat Barack Obama. The 'Obamicans' – as the Republicans backing Obama are called – even have their own website www.republicansforobama.org.

Further good news for the Obama campaign came in the NBC/Wall Street Journal's finding that women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin – 60% now express an unfavourable view of her, up from 36% in mid-September.

With the latest polls showing Obama with a lead of between 8% and 14% over his Republican opponent, it is McCain who is badly in need of good news. Only a Washington University poll bucked this trend, putting Obama at 44% to McCain at 43%.

McCain did his best to brush off the negative publicity that has surrounded his choice for vice president in recent days. Appearing on Don Imus' radio talk show, McCain said he was "entertained by the elitist attitude" toward Palin and attributed criticism of his running mate to the fact that she was not part of the "Georgetown cocktail party" circuit – a reference to the well-heeled Washington suburb where many of the political elite live. (though with the $150K spent on clothing she can certainly dress the part) "I think she's most qualified of any that has run recently for vice president, tell you the truth," McCain said, citing her experience as a small-town mayor and Alaska governor. "She has ignited our crowds. She has a wonderful family, a great husband, great values and she shares my world view."

The campaign has continued to deploy the Alaska governor in some of the most competitive areas of the country. But despite her ability to draw large enthusiastic crowds who cite her appeal as "an ordinary American" and an "anti-elitist", there is little sign that Palin has expanded her appeal beyond the Republican base.

Republican pollster David Winston said the party was at fault for not using Palin more effectively to reach out to undecided voters. "They should have her talking about the economy, talking about her experience when it comes to energy, and appealing to independent women and middle-income voters. She's taken the base of the Republican Party and got them excited but she hasn't done much in terms of winning over swing voters. It's a difficult task and there's not much time left."

That task may not have been made any easier by the revelation that the woman who has presented herself as "Joanna six-pack" was bought $150,000 (£94,000) of designer clothes by the Republican Party.

McCain said on Thursday that Palin needed new clothes when she first came to work for him, adding that they would be donated to charity after the November 4 election. "If people only knew how frugal we are," :lol:lol:lol:lol said Palin. Further revelations show that the campaign paid TV make-up artist Amy Strozzi, $13,200 (£8,000) for two weeks work in October – more than the campaign's foreign policy adviser earned.

Misfortune has also played a role. This weekend she was booed by St Louis Blues hockey fans when she dropped the ceremonial first puck during a Friday night game – the Blues goalie strained a left hip muscle after slipping on the carpet placed on the ice for Palin.

But if the woman herself has had a bad week, one Sarah Palin is hugely popular: the one portrayed by comedian Tina Fey on TV's Saturday Night Live with the catch-phrase, "I can see Russia from my house". Palin appeared with Fey on SNL last weekend and boosted the weekly satirical show to its highest audience figures in 17 years by jiving her way through a Palin rap featuring the antics of an on-stage moose.

If the politician dubbed "caribou Barbie" finds herself looking for a job after November 4 there should be no shortage of offers. Producers and agents are discussing vehicles ranging from an Oprah-style talk show to a right-wing political chat show. "Any television person who sees the numbers when she appears on anything would say Sarah Palin would be great," said a veteran morning-show producer. Either way, Palin will not disappear into the Alaskan wilderness. Some insiders suggest she will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.

[whottt]

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/comment/A-pitbull-with-her-teeth.4630318.jp

Published Date: 26 October 2008
By Claire Prentice

THE gutsy, moose-shooting, tax- cutting hockey mom was supposed to be the answer to Republican prayers. But with just nine days to go until the election, 'Palin power' has turned into a nuclear meltdown for John McCain with an opinion poll showing vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin to be more of a liability to his campaign than George W Bush.

As falls from grace go this one has been savage and sudden. After her barnstorming performance at the Republican National Convention in September, Governor Palin was hailed as a right-wing heroine. But the honeymoon period officially ended last week with a series of controversies and gaffes, leading senior conservatives to call for her to leave before the election. (I guess they're all posting on ST) Palin faced problems on the national stage and in her own Alaskan backyard. A series of investigations shed doubts on the way she ran her home state as Governor. On Friday she gave a deposition to the second Troopergate investigation over whether Governor Palin pursued a family vendetta against state trooper Mike Wooten. A first investigation found that Palin abused the powers of her office by firing the state's top public safety official.

Potentially more damaging, the woman who has championed her credentials as a thrifty governor has been accused of fiddling her expenses and taking extravagant family trips at taxpayers' expense.

An investigation by the Associated Press last week found evidence that as governor, Palin used taxpayers' money for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited. The expenses included $21,000 (£13,000) in flights for her daughters including one trip to watch their father in a snowmobile race. On another occasion, Palin claimed for a trip to New York, where she had been invited to attend a five-hour conference but stayed with her daughter, 17-year-old Bristol, for four nights in a luxury hotel costing $700 (£440) per night.

After McCain selected her as his running mate Palin ordered changes to previously filed expense reports for her daughters' travel, adding phrases such as "First Family attending" and "First Family invited" to explain the girls' attendance.

The state is already reviewing nearly $17,000 (£11,000) in per-diem payments to Palin for more than 300 nights she slept at her own home, 40 miles from her satellite office in Anchorage.

Palin's problems were compounded with allegations of cronyism. On Friday a report revealed when Palin was elected Governor of Alaska she gave 100-plus jobs to friends and campaign donors, sometimes without apparent regard to qualifications. A state spokesperson refuted the claims, saying: "We are always seeking the best-qualified folks." :lol

Some commentators questioned whether Palin was qualified to be vice president after an embarrassing TV interview last week. In response to a question posed by a primary school pupil, Palin seemed confused about the powers of the vice president. In the interview she said the VP was in charge of the senate, a novel interpretation of the US constitution which had some political commentators openly mocking her. Republicans said Palin was trying to simplify her description to make it understandable for children.

The clip has been played on a loop on cable TV stations and on the internet. So have separate comments, made during an appearance in North Carolina, that there are some parts of the country that are "pro-America." A number of commentators took this to suggest that Democrat voters were not "real Americans" and that America could be divided into "real America" (the Republican heartlands) and not-real, or unpatriotic America (blue states like New York and California). Palin has since issued an apology.

These public gaffes seem to have impacted on the McCain campaign. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week suggested Palin is more damaging to McCain's chances of becoming president than President George W Bush, whose national approval ratings are in the 20s.

In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Palin disputed such conclusions, and said: "I think those reporters asking those questions should come to some of our rallies and ask some of those in the crowd why it is they are enthused." She added that the crowds see her as representing "hardworking, everyday American families".

But though Palin undoubtedly excites the Republican grass roots, several high-profile conservative commentators have publicly expressed grave doubts about her. They include New York Times columnist David Brooks and Kathleen Parker in the National Review, who wrote an article under the heading 'She's Out of Her League' in which she called for Palin to step down for the sake of her country. Brooks called Palin "a fatal cancer on the Republican Party".

One party insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said, "There are many people in the party who wish she would go back to Alaska. McCain picked her. If he loses, he only has himself to blame."

The Palin meltdown comes as high-profile Republicans follow in the footsteps of former secretary of state Colin Powell, who announced he is crossing party lines to back Democrat Barack Obama. The 'Obamicans' – as the Republicans backing Obama are called – even have their own website www.republicansforobama.org.

Further good news for the Obama campaign came in the NBC/Wall Street Journal's finding that women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin – 60% now express an unfavourable view of her, up from 36% in mid-September.

With the latest polls showing Obama with a lead of between 8% and 14% over his Republican opponent, it is McCain who is badly in need of good news. Only a Washington University poll bucked this trend, putting Obama at 44% to McCain at 43%.

McCain did his best to brush off the negative publicity that has surrounded his choice for vice president in recent days. Appearing on Don Imus' radio talk show, McCain said he was "entertained by the elitist attitude" toward Palin and attributed criticism of his running mate to the fact that she was not part of the "Georgetown cocktail party" circuit – a reference to the well-heeled Washington suburb where many of the political elite live. (though with the $150K spent on clothing she can certainly dress the part) "I think she's most qualified of any that has run recently for vice president, tell you the truth," McCain said, citing her experience as a small-town mayor and Alaska governor. "She has ignited our crowds. She has a wonderful family, a great husband, great values and she shares my world view."

The campaign has continued to deploy the Alaska governor in some of the most competitive areas of the country. But despite her ability to draw large enthusiastic crowds who cite her appeal as "an ordinary American" and an "anti-elitist", there is little sign that Palin has expanded her appeal beyond the Republican base.

Republican pollster David Winston said the party was at fault for not using Palin more effectively to reach out to undecided voters. "They should have her talking about the economy, talking about her experience when it comes to energy, and appealing to independent women and middle-income voters. She's taken the base of the Republican Party and got them excited but she hasn't done much in terms of winning over swing voters. It's a difficult task and there's not much time left."

That task may not have been made any easier by the revelation that the woman who has presented herself as "Joanna six-pack" was bought $150,000 (£94,000) of designer clothes by the Republican Party.

McCain said on Thursday that Palin needed new clothes when she first came to work for him, adding that they would be donated to charity after the November 4 election. "If people only knew how frugal we are," :lol:lol:lol:lol said Palin. Further revelations show that the campaign paid TV make-up artist Amy Strozzi, $13,200 (£8,000) for two weeks work in October – more than the campaign's foreign policy adviser earned.

Misfortune has also played a role. This weekend she was booed by St Louis Blues hockey fans when she dropped the ceremonial first puck during a Friday night game – the Blues goalie strained a left hip muscle after slipping on the carpet placed on the ice for Palin.

But if the woman herself has had a bad week, one Sarah Palin is hugely popular: the one portrayed by comedian Tina Fey on TV's Saturday Night Live with the catch-phrase, "I can see Russia from my house". Palin appeared with Fey on SNL last weekend and boosted the weekly satirical show to its highest audience figures in 17 years by jiving her way through a Palin rap featuring the antics of an on-stage moose.

If the politician dubbed "caribou Barbie" finds herself looking for a job after November 4 there should be no shortage of offers. Producers and agents are discussing vehicles ranging from an Oprah-style talk show to a right-wing political chat show. "Any television person who sees the numbers when she appears on anything would say Sarah Palin would be great," said a veteran morning-show producer. Either way, Palin will not disappear into the Alaskan wilderness. Some insiders suggest she will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.



Here ya go florige...this is exactly the type of bullshit I am talking about :tu

[anakha]

Out of curiosity whottt, what are the proofs that those bolded items in the article are untrue?

[whottt]

Out of curiosity whottt, what are the proofs that those bolded items in the article are untrue?


What are the proofs they are true?

[whottt]

I'll give you a hint Whottt. Look for the states with the highest African American population and then find me the states which have the largest increases in early voting turnout compared to 2004.

boom:

http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html


and boom:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html


According to Manny logic Lousiana is going Blue..

Hint that.


BTW, Texas has the second largest % minority population in the United States I believe, next to California whose Asian population puts it number one(and who will they be voting for anyway?)...due to the two demographics you mentioned...you ready to call Texas blue as well?

[anakha]

What are the proofs they are true?

Should have rephrased that, I guess. :p:

What I was trying to get at was that the first side who can provide proof as to the validity or not of those assertions should be able to put all of this sniping and ad-hominem arguments to rest.

[MannyIsGod]

boom:

http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html


and boom:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html


According to Manny logic Lousiana is going Blue..

Hint that.


BTW, Texas has the second largest % minority population in the United States I believe, next to California whose Asian population puts it number one(and who will they be voting for anyway?)...due to the two demographics you mentioned...you ready to call Texas blue as well?

I've had it with you Whottt. I've thought in the past you were actually capable of intellectual discourse, but everything you've posted during this late election season has proved to be otherwise. Why is it so hard for you to look at actual facts and discuss them honestly instead of continuously playing a stupid spin game? Whether its failure to acknowledge numerical evidence in countless shapes and forms or making comparisons that are in no way shape or form analougus to one another you're always coming up with some bullshit that simply makes no fucking sense. Its gotten to the point where no one here gives you credit for being anything other than a blind partisian idiot yet every post you make is nothing more than a complaint about how poorly your beloved Palin is treated or how idiotic the posters of this board are when you can't even be bothered to read a fucking chart correctly before blowing your wad. Its just retarded as hell and you've quickly reached the depts of bouton's level posting. You're not even as good as NBADan anymore and that should tell you how sad things are.

Anyway, that was my rant, but lets take a look at the idiocy of your most recent post in this thread.

I've asked you several times in this thread a very simple question: What will be the demographic breakdown of an electorate with an increased turnout that would supposedly support a better outcome for McCain and several times you've either completely avoided the question or given me a ridiculous answer. I never said a damn thing about Lousianan or Texas going blue yet instead of answering the question I posed you choose to attribute stupid assertions to me that I've never made because you know god damn well there is no way to spin that in states like Georgia and North CArolina where we're seeing huge early voting turnout when compared to 2004 we're seeing that turnout made up dispraportionatly by African Americans.

If African Americans end up making up an extra 2% of the electorate in key states thats virtually 2% that Obama gets almost entirely due to how strongly they support him. Considering that in certain states African Americans are voting at 2-3x the rate in 2004 a modest 20% increase in the electorates turnout is far from impossible and actually quite conservative. This is something that polls aren't even taking into account and when you consider that Obama is already leading these polls I'm just curious as to how McCain is going to overcome an even bigger hurdled presented by increased turnout?

Now, are you capable of actually providing reasoning for what you are thinking or are you simply going to go through another bullshit post where you proclaim that Mannylogic dictates Mars is going to go blue?

[MannyIsGod]

What are the proofs they are true?

Well some are undisputed fact. The amount of money the RNC spent on her wardrobe and the amount of money paid to her makeup artist and where that salary ranked within the campaign are indisputable.

There are many quotes coming directly from the McCain campaign that show just how much they don't like her. I'm not sure what you make of a senior campaign official calling her a "Whack Job" but I'm not sure even you can spin that as a good thing. It is also undeniable that opinion polls now show the public's view of her is not one to be proud of. I'm 99% sure you're simply going to claim these polls are off but there have been several polls out there showing the same thing.

You can always fall back on your claim that she's drawing huge crowds but that doesn't not say anything other than she's managed to have a positive influence on the GOP base (A base which happens to be smaller in this election). She's not attracting independents and she's also not on the top of the ticket which is where people ultimately vote.

Important Conservatives who have denied McCain support due at least in part to the pick of Sarah Palin as VP:

Chuck Hagel
Kathleen Parker
David Frum
Matthew Dowd
Charles Fried
Peggy Noonan
Arne Carlson
Scott McClellan
Christopher Buckley
George Will
Ken Addleman
Joshua Trevino
Christopher Hitchens

Oh yeah, Collin Powell


Yeah, Palin really knows how to reach out to the real conservatives. I'll take George Will's opinion on anything anyday before I reach out to the some dumbshit at a Palin rally. Fucking Anti-Americans.

[timvp]

I've had it with you Whottt. I've thought in the past you were actually capable of intellectual discourse, but everything you've posted during this late election season has proved to be otherwise. Why is it so hard for you to look at actual facts and discuss them honestly instead of continuously playing a stupid spin game? Whether its failure to acknowledge numerical evidence in countless shapes and forms or making comparisons that are in no way shape or form analougus to one another you're always coming up with some bullshit that simply makes no fucking sense. Its gotten to the point where no one here gives you credit for being anything other than a blind partisian idiot yet every post you make is nothing more than a complaint about how poorly your beloved Palin is treated or how idiotic the posters of this board are when you can't even be bothered to read a fucking chart correctly before blowing your wad. Its just retarded as hell and you've quickly reached the depts of bouton's level posting. You're not even as good as NBADan anymore and that should tell you how sad things are.

Anyway, that was my rant, but lets take a look at the idiocy of your most recent post in this thread.

I've asked you several times in this thread a very simple question: What will be the demographic breakdown of an electorate with an increased turnout that would supposedly support a better outcome for McCain and several times you've either completely avoided the question or given me a ridiculous answer. I never said a damn thing about Lousianan or Texas going blue yet instead of answering the question I posed you choose to attribute stupid assertions to me that I've never made because you know god damn well there is no way to spin that in states like Georgia and North CArolina where we're seeing huge early voting turnout when compared to 2004 we're seeing that turnout made up dispraportionatly by African Americans.

If African Americans end up making up an extra 2% of the electorate in key states thats virtually 2% that Obama gets almost entirely due to how strongly they support him. Considering that in certain states African Americans are voting at 2-3x the rate in 2004 a modest 20% increase in the electorates turnout is far from impossible and actually quite conservative. This is something that polls aren't even taking into account and when you consider that Obama is already leading these polls I'm just curious as to how McCain is going to overcome an even bigger hurdled presented by increased turnout?

Now, are you capable of actually providing reasoning for what you are thinking or are you simply going to go through another bullshit post where you proclaim that Mannylogic dictates Mars is going to go blue?

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

:rollin

[MannyIsGod]

To add further to the early voting turnout, this is something that Obama's ground game is going to have a huge effect on. This is a place where the ground game is literally creating votes where there have not been votes in the past. I know because I've witnessed it time and time and time again when I've been canvassing in an effort to get the vote out.

In New Mexico you come across people who have never voted in the past and you not only get them to vote early, you get them to vote on the very day you speak to them. All it takes for many of them is a nudge, but the Obama ground game is literally hounding people worse than a bill collector trying to get them out. You get them to confirm a date they're going to vote and then you follow up with them until they do. Both in NM and OH I spoke with several people who left almost immediatly after I spoke with them to the polls. And the numbers coming out of these places absolutely affirm this.

[manufor3]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

:rollin

:lol

[Findog]

Actually...that's not my contention or at least not my only one...keep in mind I'm predicting Obama will wind up with fewer votes than Kerry got in 2004.

You guys keep thinking there's not going to be a price paid for not putting Hillary on the ballot...

I think that's incredibly stupid and shortsighed on ya'lls part....that works under the assumption that all candidates are equal and Americans vote for party over candidate yet there is a mountain of evidence to refute that.

All candidates are not equal...all candidates do not inspire the same people the same way.


If Pat Buchannan had the nomination in 2000 and 2004 he wouldn't have won. If you guys had given the 2004 nomination to anyone but Kerry or Dean you would have won.


But the main reason for my contention? McCain and Palin are much more likeable than W and Cheney were...believe me, it was hard to vote for them....took work for the Democrats to get me to do that....it was a vote cast on pure patriotism, and literally nothing else....

And I don't think you guys are going to pull as many traditional Democratic votes as you think you're goong to...reason being? You didn't put the popular candidate in all the major blue states on the ticket.

I wasn't referring to you, I was referring to the politico article.

[ElNono]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

:rollin

LOL, :lmao

[florige]

A question for Fin or Manolo. I know both you guys have worked the campaign trail for Obama. The question I have is, does Axelrod travel with Obama everywhere he goes since he is the head of the campaign?

[whottt]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

:rollin

smackbat my ass...he's trying to get me to bet based on exit polling. I don't give a fuck what smack he runs...he's full of shit.

[florige]

smackbat my ass...he's trying to get me to bet based on exit polling. I don't give a fuck what smack he runs...he's full of shit.


I know you can't wait until this is over Whottt. Win or lose you are back to debating your arch nemesis Timvp in the basketball/spurs forum.

[whottt]

I've had it with you Whottt. I've thought in the past you were actually capable of intellectual discourse, but everything you've posted during this late election season has proved to be otherwise. Why is it so hard for you to look at actual facts and discuss them honestly instead of continuously playing a stupid spin game? Whether its failure to acknowledge numerical evidence in countless shapes and forms or making comparisons that are in no way shape or form analougus to one another you're always coming up with some bullshit that simply makes no fucking sense. Its gotten to the point where no one here gives you credit for being anything other than a blind partisian idiot yet every post you make is nothing more than a complaint about how poorly your beloved Palin is treated or how idiotic the posters of this board are when you can't even be bothered to read a fucking chart correctly before blowing your wad. Its just retarded as hell and you've quickly reached the depts of bouton's level posting. You're not even as good as NBADan anymore and that should tell you how sad things are.

Anyway, that was my rant, but lets take a look at the idiocy of your most recent post in this thread.

I've asked you several times in this thread a very simple question: What will be the demographic breakdown of an electorate with an increased turnout that would supposedly support a better outcome for McCain and several times you've either completely avoided the question or given me a ridiculous answer. I never said a damn thing about Lousianan or Texas going blue yet instead of answering the question I posed you choose to attribute stupid assertions to me that I've never made because you know god damn well there is no way to spin that in states like Georgia and North CArolina where we're seeing huge early voting turnout when compared to 2004 we're seeing that turnout made up dispraportionatly by African Americans.

If African Americans end up making up an extra 2% of the electorate in key states thats virtually 2% that Obama gets almost entirely due to how strongly they support him. Considering that in certain states African Americans are voting at 2-3x the rate in 2004 a modest 20% increase in the electorates turnout is far from impossible and actually quite conservative. This is something that polls aren't even taking into account and when you consider that Obama is already leading these polls I'm just curious as to how McCain is going to overcome an even bigger hurdled presented by increased turnout?

Now, are you capable of actually providing reasoning for what you are thinking or are you simply going to go through another bullshit post where you proclaim that Mannylogic dictates Mars is going to go blue?

Um..hey Ace...Lousiana fits your early voting African American criteria to a T...it was a very valid statement based on your own criteria.

And are you calling Georgia blue? If so just make the call...

As for my demographic breakdown...

Let me put it in my terms..

I think McCain is more attractive to moderates than Bush was, I speak from the position of being a moderate...and don't fucking kid yourself, he's more attractive to moderates than Obama is as well. Furthermore I expect him to hold more Bush voters than Obama to hold Kerry voters...

I expect a significant increase in minority voters for Obama....I also expect a decline in white, women, asian and jewish voters(Jews have been trending towards Republicans for 2 election cycles now) for Obama..I expect some of them to go to McCain...I expect some of them not to vote.

I figure Obama will pull about 10 million voters that Kerry didn't in minorities...I figure he's going to lose about 15 million voters that Kerry had at the same time, due to the fact that he's black, named Hussein, has a bevy of anti-American associations, and had an extremely contentious primary with the most popular living Democrat.

I do not see McCain losing the Bush voters anywhere near the degreee that Obama is going to lose Kerry voters...and I see him picking up a substantial amount of traditional Democratic voters...possibly as high as 10 million.

This is why I called McCain getting more votes than Bush in 04, and Obama getting less than Kerry....it was one of the first things I thought about.


You will never see these trends truly reflected in any exit poll btw...

[whottt]

I know you can't wait until this is over Whottt. Win or lose you are back to debating your arch nemesis Timvp in the basketball/spurs forum.


Eh...the way I look at it, even I'm wrong on calling this election..at worst I'll be tied with all the asshats that called a Kerry win in 04...which is about 70% of the people I argue with here daily.

They felt so confident you see...


Getting their ass handed to them didn't shut them fuck up...so why should I?



Funny thing...I wasn't sure W was going to win at all, he was a hard man to vote for.






As for the Spurs...I don't expect there'll be much to debate about this season. I look at it as the swan song of the most successful Spurs core ever...I don't care if they win or lose a title this year, I'll be tipping my hat to them all season...because no one wins them all, and these guys won more than most. The only guy I might rip this season is Pop...for this scrub titlekryptonite/letdown supporting roster he assembled.

[LnGrrrR]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

:rollin

I'd like to thank you for being a sane conservative.

[florige]

Eh...the way I look at it, even I'm wrong on calling this election..at worst I'll be tied with all the asshats that called a Kerry win in 04...which is about 70% of the people I argue with here daily.

They felt so confident you see...


Getting their ass handed to them didn't shut them fuck up...so why should I?



Funny thing...I wasn't sure W was going to win at all, he was a hard man to vote for.





As for the Spurs...I don't expect there'll be much to debate about this season. I look at it as the swan song of the most successful Spurs core ever...I don't care if they win or lose a title this year, I'll be tipping my hat to them all season...because no one wins them all, and these guys won more than most. The only guy I might rip this season is Pop...for this scrub titlekryptonite/letdown supporting roster he assembled.



Even though I was all for Gore, W was charismatic. Gore came off as being an arrogant douchebag. I think that turned alot of people off from him....

[MannyIsGod]

Um..hey Ace...Lousiana fits your early voting African American criteria to a T...it was a very valid statement based on your own criteria.

And are you calling Georgia blue? If so just make the call...

As for my demographic breakdown...

Let me put it in my terms..

I think McCain is more attractive to moderates than Bush was, I speak from the position of being a moderate...and don't fucking kid yourself, he's more attractive to moderates than Obama is as well. Furthermore I expect him to hold more Bush voters than Obama to hold Kerry voters...

I expect a significant increase in minority voters for Obama....I also expect a decline in white, women, asian and jewish voters(Jews have been trending towards Republicans for 2 election cycles now) for Obama..I expect some of them to go to McCain...I expect some of them not to vote.

I figure Obama will pull about 10 million voters that Kerry didn't in minorities...I figure he's going to lose about 15 million voters that Kerry had at the same time, due to the fact that he's black, named Hussein, has a bevy of anti-American associations, and had an extremely contentious primary with the most popular living Democrat.

I do not see McCain losing the Bush voters anywhere near the degreee that Obama is going to lose Kerry voters...and I see him picking up a substantial amount of traditional Democratic voters...possibly as high as 10 million.

This is why I called McCain getting more votes than Bush in 04, and Obama getting less than Kerry....it was one of the first things I thought about.


You will never see these trends truly reflected in any exit poll btw...

Except I'm not using exit polls but the information directly from the state of Georgia. Although polling done by SUSA (Not exit polling either) and some other firms says pretty much the exact same thing. I know its a huge surprise to you, but the data gathered by these pollsters is being verified by the data gathered by the state itself.

Its amazing you give Obama an added 10 million votes than John Kerry from minorities and still have him losing. You were still unable to provide a demographic breakdown but I suspect thats because you have no idea who the hell is going to supply your magic votes so I'll just let it go. I have a feeling this is about as close as I'm going to get to the answer.

Anyway, on the topic of getting an extra 10 million votes from minorites and losing, you have to understand that Kerry only got 60 million votes in 04. Less actually but for expidency I'll go with 60 million. Out of that, less than 11% was from AA of which Kerry got 90% of the vote, and 8% was Hispanics where Kerry got 55% of the vote. Grand Total of 17 Million votes. So you're saying his vote total from minorities is going to increase by more than 60% and he's still going to lose because of a mass exodous of white voters that we have absolutely no evidence for.

That is downright fucking stupid, Whottt. You should have at least stuck to the stupid low voterturnout idea than coming out saying that Obama's support from minorities will grow at that rate and he will still lose. Thats fucking idiocy. I'd bet everything I own agaisnt Obama gaining 10 million votes from minorities and doing anything but dominating.

Next time don't pull a number out of your ass when you're butt hurt about being shown for the fool you are because you're merely reinforcing the concept.

[JoeChalupa]

Folks, the race is tightening and AP has FL and OH as statistical ties. The comeback kid McCain is at it again.

[florige]

Folks, the race is tightening and AP has FL and OH as statistical ties. The comeback kid McCain is at it again.



As long as VA is still in Obama's column we are ok.

[florige]

Also Joe, the polls in OH and FL are going to jump around the last few days up until the election. In 04 they flipped flopped between Kerry and Bush a few times.

[MannyIsGod]

Time for you to man up Whottt.

Lets bet 6 months in the political forum. If McCain wins - he doesn't even need to win in a landslide - I will not come in here for 6 months after November fith. If Obama wins, then you stay out for sixth Months after November 5th.

Don't be a bitch - if you really believe what you say you do step up to the plate.

[JoeChalupa]

As long as VA is still in Obama's column we are ok.

Yeah, that is my thinking as well and if Obama holds PA. :tu

[01.20.09]

Rasmusen has Obama only up by 3pts.

[boutons_]

http://www.chrisweigant.com/blog/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/evpercent10.jpg

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (23 states, 273 EV) -- CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.
New Hampshire had one outlier poll a while back, and has since recovered... no matter what the media says about it. Colorado has steadily improved its Obama support, and can now be considered Safe as well. The addition of New Hampshire and Colorado in the Safe Obama category (and the loss of no states here) pushes him over the top just among his safest states. This is the first time this has happened, and should calm a few frayed Democratic nerves heading into the home stretch.


Probable Obama (2 states, 33 EV) -- OH, VA.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/electoral-math----obama-h_b_139061.html?view=print

[PixelPusher]

:lol Bill O'Reilly's map:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/images/2008/10/29/oreillymap_2.jpg

I guess any state where Obama's lead isn't at least 10 points is a "tossup" now.

[dg7md]

Oregon is not a "toss up" by any stretch. Oregon is as blue as California is.

Same goes for Michigan, which is a virtual democratic state now. There's so, so much else wrong with that map.

[CubanMustGo]

:lol Bill O'Reilly's map:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/images/2008/10/29/oreillymap_2.jpg

I guess any state where Obama is under 10 points is a "tossup" now.

As opposed to the latest RealClearPolitics map:

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/6408/1029200895653pmts1.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

:lol Bill O'Reilly's map:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/images/2008/10/29/oreillymap_2.jpg

I guess any state where Obama's lead isn't at least 10 points is a "tossup" now.

:lmao

That map is fucking hilarious.

[CubanMustGo]

:lmao

That map is fucking hilarious.

"The O'Reilly Poll interviewed likely evangelical voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia ..."

[Nbadan]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet...Rachael Maddow does a brilliant analysis of the state of this election as a analogy of a football game..

tCXWCdyHQxw

[MannyIsGod]

My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency. Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up. Rather, McCain will need to find some way to eat into some fraction of Obama's decided vote, and because most of Obama's support is quite hard (e.g. enthusiastic), that will not be easy to do.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3024/2986041214_64428c85c4_o.png

I think its clear McCain has made some slight headway in the national polls and this is something that anyone who's followed the polls expected. The most important factor to me, however, is that Obama's support has not wavered but McCain has started to pick up those that were undecided in past polls. While this in itself isn't bad, it is when you see that Obama is averaging 50-51% in most of those polls.

At this point I don't think you'll see much more tightening before November 4. You may see another point or 2 at the max, but considering this is a 5-6 point race thats simply not enough to make this a competitive race. I'll really be interested to see the polls a few days from now after the Obamamercial from tonight because I thought it was extremely well produced and I think at the least its going to move the pendulum away from McCain but I think its more likely to bring movement back to Obama.

Obama is on the top of a wave right now and I'm not sure there's anything McCain can' do to stop it much less swing it the other way.

[MannyIsGod]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet...Rachael Maddow does a brilliant analysis of the state of this election as a analogy of a football game..

tCXWCdyHQxw

I saw that live the other night. I think the analogy coming from someone who knows little about sports was meh (Olberman would have been a better delivery for this) but the points she makes are of course incredibly sound.

I think earlier this year when you heard NC was in play you knew the GOP was in deep trouble, but what do these guys have to think when Georgia and Arizona are polling not only in the single digits but around 2-3 points and damn close to the MOE? I anticipated Georgia being close but I never anticipated the type of poll results we're seeing out of Arizona. That's simply insane and I have no idea what fucking yard line that's on.

[Nbadan]

October 28, 2008 - National General Election Ballot


While the national ballot has remained unchanged since the last week of September, Barack Obama continues to gain electoral votes. Obama now leads in 30 states with a total of 375 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 21 states with a total of 163 electoral votes.

Obama could lose Florida, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia and still have 278 electoral votes.

American Research Group (http://americanresearchgroup.com/)

[Nbadan]

The latest analysis from Fivethirtyeigth...



"With no fewer than 45 polls released since our last update, covering essentially all of the major swing states, we have a pretty good idea of where this race stands -- a far better idea than you'll get by trying to discern the meaning of John Zogby's divining rod or paying any attention to what you see on the front page of Drudge Report. What we can say, when we put all this information together, is that there are two things that John McCain is NOT doing.

Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.

Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.

My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency. Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up. Rather, McCain will need to find some way to eat into some fraction of Obama's decided vote, and because most of Obama's support is quite hard (e.g. enthusiastic), that will not be easy to do."

Link (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

Things are looking good for the Obama camp, but complacency is the last thing the DEMs need now...only a few days left in the election and in some states early voting has already started, so don't think that your vote won't make a difference...it will....let's show them that TX is not just a GOP stronghold anymore and if any party wants the support of the people of this great state, they are gonna have to work for us, the people, to earn that support...

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

Scroll up and read what I posted.

[Nbadan]

Sorry, but I agree with this analysis...


At this point I don't think you'll see much more tightening before November 4. You may see another point or 2 at the max, but considering this is a 5-6 point race thats simply not enough to make this a competitive race. I'll really be interested to see the polls a few days from now after the Obamamercial from tonight because I thought it was extremely well produced and I think at the least its going to move the pendulum away from McCain but I think its more likely to bring movement back to Obama.

Obama is on the top of a wave right now and I'm not sure there's anything McCain can' do to stop it much less swing it the other way.

I think the Obamainfomercial will push Obama over the top in some close races....unfortunately for McCain they are all in formerly red states...

[Nbadan]

WASHINGTON – Democrats are dominating early voting in six key states President Bush won four years ago, forcing Republican John McCain to play catch-up even before Election Day arrives.

Democrats outnumber Republicans among early voters in Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, according to statistics from election and party officials in those states. Bush won all six in 2004, and McCain needs to win most of them to claim the White House this year.

Georgia, another red state, doesn't track early voters by party, but it does by race. About 1.4 million Georgians have already cast ballots, and blacks are voting in disproportionate numbers. Black voters overwhelmingly support Democrat Barack Obama, who is bidding to become the nation's first black president.

Voters can always cross party lines and no vote totals are announced until Election Day, but the early indications clearly favor Obama. It is unclear, however, whether they will translate into success on Nov. 4 because never before have so many Americans cast their votes before Election Day.

Yahoooo News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081030/ap_on_el_pr/early_voting_12)

[Nbadan]

Zogby, who I think leans right on his polls, can't spin the post Obamainfomerical bounce...

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 50.2%, McCain 43.3%
Obama gains, McCain slips


UTICA, New YorkDemocrat Barack Obama has inched forward again, once again expanding his lead above 50% and moving outside the margin of error as rival John McCain slipped more than a full point, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

[MannyIsGod]

KING: You don't believe Barack Obama is a socialist do you?

MCCAIN: "No, but i do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around. He has talked about courts that redistribute the wealth. He has a record of voting against tax cuts. And for tax increases."

Oops

[MannyIsGod]

Lets take a quick look at Georgia because they provide a great look at demographics of early voting based on state data.

So far the demographic breakdown of the early voting goes like so:

35.2% Black

That leaves basically 65% White and other races such as Hispanic or Asian with the vast majority of that being White.

If Barack is carrying 90% of the black vote (this is a conservative estimate as its much more likely to be around 95%) and 40% of the white vote then this is how the percentages break down so far:

57.5% Barack
42.5% McCain

I think this is a pretty conservative estimate of how much of the early vote Obama has in this state considering the very basic demographic breakdown and the conservative percentages I'm using both for the white vote and the black vote. Considering that as of yesteday's stats we'd already seen this round of early voting at the 40% mark of the entire turnout for the 2004 election so we're seeing a huge slice of the electorate at this point. I think its highly likely that at least half of Georgia's entire turnout for this election will have been cast in absentee or early ballot which means that McCain has to absolutely destroy on Election day to carry the state. I believe he's got a decent chance to pull that off, but these numbers are a strong indicator of the Obama GOTV machine and how its making the GOP's job a difficult one.

Oh, and these numbers should scare the fuck out of Republicans looking to win that Senate race.

[PixelPusher]

Oops

Yeah, McCain can only parrot wingnut pablum for so long before he tires of it.
It's even bleeding into his attack ads:
E08opP-qnQM

it's that "...yet" part that puts a cork on the tip of the blade there.

[MannyIsGod]

LOL LOL LOL

jMwv74rIGDU

Its safe to say the McCain senior staff hates Palin. Whottt probably thinks they're just Anti-American, right?

[whottt]

Even though I was all for Gore, W was charismatic. Gore came off as being an arrogant douchebag. I think that turned alot of people off from him....


Good god...you think W was charismatic? He's the most uncharismatic politician arguably in history, outside of maybe John Kerry...yeah Gore didn't really have much either, but at least he had experience and the Military background.

[whottt]

Time for you to man up Whottt.

Lets bet 6 months in the political forum. If McCain wins - he doesn't even need to win in a landslide - I will not come in here for 6 months after November fith. If Obama wins, then you stay out for sixth Months after November 5th.

Don't be a bitch - if you really believe what you say you do step up to the plate.




Um...you must not be familiar with my political forum posting history, I go months without posting in here all the time...I'm sure I've had a couple of 6 month stints in the past 4 years(I think I've done it a lot actually).

After the election is over I won't be posting in here anymore regularly than I have in previous years.


You guys can get back to your liberal inbreeding and resume your non-stop piling on of Ray and Yoni, which ya'll like to label as intellectualism, after the election...win or lose, don't worry.

[whottt]

Zogby, who I think leans right on his polls


:lol

[MannyIsGod]

Um...you must not be familiar with my political forum posting history, I go months without posting in here all the time...I'm sure I've had a couple of 6 month stints in the past 4 years(I think I've done it a lot actually).

After the election is over I won't be posting in here anymore regularly than I have in previous years.


You guys can get back to your liberal inbreeding and resume your non-stop piling on of Ray and Yoni, which ya'll like to label as intellectualism, after the election...win or lose, don't worry.

Then make the bet. Stop dancing and just make the bet.

[whottt]

Except I'm not using exit polls but the information directly from the state of Georgia. Although polling done by SUSA (Not exit polling either) and some other firms says pretty much the exact same thing. I know its a huge surprise to you, but the data gathered by these pollsters is being verified by the data gathered by the state itself.

Yeah but you're asking me to make a bet on demographic voting...and that is done by exit polling.



Its amazing you give Obama an added 10 million votes than John Kerry from minorities and still have him losing. You were still unable to provide a demographic breakdown but I suspect thats because you have no idea who the hell is going to supply your magic votes so I'll just let it go. I have a feeling this is about as close as I'm going to get to the answer.

And I've also stated how he's going to lose voters....I've stated a variety of reasons he's going to lose them and I feel they are all very valid.


#1. It's a fact that a good PCT of Hillary supporters are not supporting him...I think the general number has been consistently that 58% of them support him and the rest don't. 28%(also a pretty consistent number) or so are expected to go to McCain....that's 6 million votes right there, and a good deal of the remaining Hillary supporters are not expected to vote.


You think there is not going to be any price paid there...you think there is going to be no substantial loss there.


Look at it blanket numbers from 2004:

Bush took 61 million votes
Kerry took 58 million vots.


You substract 6 milliion Hillary supporters from Obama's 10 million total and add them to McCain and that's a 4 million gain for Obama and a 6 million gain for McCain.

That equals 67 million votes for McCain and 62 million for Obama.


Except for the fact that I don't think hispanics are going to turn out for Obama like you think they are...


They didn't in the primaries, they turned out for Hillary...and these hispanics of which we speak are largely independents a great deal of which supported Bush the Republican in the last election..they are not Yellow Dog Democrats, and the key issue with hispanic voters is one Mccain just happens to be on the right side of for them.

It's not a slam dunk he's going to rule the hispanic vote like you think it is...I know since you are hispanic you think you have some insight here...

But let me just ask you this...

Who did hispanic voters support in the primary?

Who did you support in the primary?



As for the rest of my break down...

An estimated 1 in 5 voters who voted Democrat in the last election are expected to not support Obama for racial reasons, they might go to McCain, they might not vote...but that's roughly 12 million votes.

You have to hope those losses come out of the Hillary pool..I don't think they are given the Clintons history of support for African Americans.


Then you have the Jews...6-8 million of those in the United States, and a group that has been trending more and more Republican for 2 election now...

You seem to think Obama's cozying up to Iran and Islamic middle name won't be a factor with them...I think it will be a huge factor. I expect that trend to the Republicans to increase in this election.








Anyway, on the topic of getting an extra 10 million votes from minorites and losing, you have to understand that Kerry only got 60 million votes in 04. Less actually but for expidency I'll go with 60 million. Out of that, less than 11% was from AA of which Kerry got 90% of the vote, and 8% was Hispanics where Kerry got 55% of the vote. Grand Total of 17 Million votes. So you're saying his vote total from minorities is going to increase by more than 60% and he's still going to lose because of a mass exodous of white voters that we have absolutely no evidence for.

But we do have evidence for it...

It's been consistently reported that 28% of Clinton Democrats are expected to vote for McCain...

It's also been consistently reported that only 58% of them are expected to vote for Obama.


Beyond all that...it's been consistently reported that 1 in 5 Democrats are expected to not vote for Obama due to racial reasons.



That's 18 million votes lost assuming they are all coming from a different pool of voters....even if they aren't...it's still bound to be a number relevant to Obama chances of beating McCain.




That is downright fucking stupid, Whottt. You should have at least stuck to the stupid low voterturnout idea than coming out saying that Obama's support from minorities will grow at that rate and he will still lose. Thats fucking idiocy. I'd bet everything I own agaisnt Obama gaining 10 million votes from minorities and doing anything but dominating.

Next time don't pull a number out of your ass when you're butt hurt about being shown for the fool you are because you're merely reinforcing the concept.


I didn't pull any numbers out of my ass...I am going by the same information you are...


What you need to be worried about is that from the getgo I accepted your theory that minorities are going to turnout...and factored it in.


You simply label my theory stupid and refuse to factor it in to your projections.


I'm not the one in denial and refusing to acknowledge relevant factors...you are.

[MannyIsGod]

MSNBC keeps talking about a Mason-Dixon poll coming out today that shows PA down to a 4 point race at 47-43 which would be a huge departure from everything else coming out of the state. We'll see but I'm betting that the poll has some skewed demographics before I'm accepting that a race that is universally shown at 9-12 points all of a sudden down to four points with a huge increase in undecideds.

[MannyIsGod]

First of all, I'm asking you to bet on results. WTF does it matter where I get the information I'm basing my prediction on Whottt? THe only thing that matters is the end result because thats all we're betting on. You keep doing this stupid song and dance where you post something completely out of left field in response to something I post. I haven't looked at a single bit of exit polling considering there has been zero exit polling conducted in 2008 so I'm not evne sure why you're bringing this up. The demographic breakdown doesn't come from polling but the actuall demographics of the early voting participants as reported by the state of Georgia.

In the end you just keep dancing around the subject because you're too scared to make the bet. You say that six months out of the political forum is no big deal to you yet you refuse to make the bet because you're simply full of shit.

If you want to sit there and garner praise for your one out of a billion predictions that comes through why don't you actually put something on the line?

Anyway, you are completely pulling numbers out of your ass. You haven't cited a single source for these numbers that you're using. You just decide to throw a number to see if it sticks without actually providing a context for said number or a source. You say that Hilary supporters are abandoning Obama when the vast majority of polls show that Obama is gathering more support from his base than McCain is. There are more Republicans defecting for Obama than there are Democrats defecting for McCain and this is a strong consistency in the vast majority of polling.

Then you bring up Hispanics and you cite that you don't think they're going to turnout in large numbers yet early voting numbers out of predominatly hispanic areas are that of greatly increased turnout comapred to 2004. If you look at the border counties of Texas and New Mexico what you see are early voting numbers that are much higher than in 2004.

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

Check them for yourself (or you can actually read my posts in this very thread) if you don't believe me. You can compare them yourself and see how large the increase is and early voting still has 3 full days to go.

And I haven't even begun to touch on the support that the hispanic community is showing Obama. Bush did well with this community in the 2 elections he won but this isn't 2004 and there is no evidence that McCain is in line to recieve the same kind of support. There's no doubt that Hilary got more of this demographic than Obama but they're not supporting McCain because McCain isn't Hilary.

Just show me some information to back up what your saying and stop pussy footing around my bet challenges to you. If you really believed your predictions and if you really didn't think six months out of here was a big deal you'd have absolutely no qualms about making a bet but the truth is that you know the foundation of your predictions should start with "Once Upon A Time".

Just start by providing links to how your claims of the "continuously reported" figures on Hilary supporters.

[whottt]

I'll leave the political forum for 6 months after the election no matter who wins :tu

[MannyIsGod]

I'll leave the political forum for 6 months after the election no matter who wins :tu

Pussy - you'll do anything to avoid actually having anything to lose from your predictions. You sure do have a lot of conviction behind them.

[whottt]

You're funny Manny.

[MannyIsGod]

You're funny Manny.

That's about the only reality based thing you've posted in the past 4 months.

[whottt]

Any word on the overnight ratings for Obama's sales pitch?


I am very interested in those...

[JoeChalupa]

The polls are getting tighter and this race, as I've said many times, is FAR from over. Far from over my friends.

[Mr. Peabody]

The polls are getting tighter and this race, as I've said many times, is FAR from over. Far from over my friends.

Watching a few too many McCain townhalls....?

[JoeChalupa]

Watching a few too many McCain townhalls....?

No, not at all. McCain has always been a strong closer and the polls are showing that. Just keeping it real.

[Findog]

No, not at all. McCain has always been a strong closer and the polls are showing that. Just keeping it real.

Uh, not really. McCain has probably shaved a point off Obama's lead, but it's taken him a week to do so. And the important thing is that Obama isn't losing support, McCain has simply made small inroads in gaining a bit of undecided support.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1029.html

It's not over. That said, here's a football analogy:

Obama has the lead and the ball right before the two-minute warning. He needs to get a first down in order to kneel down and run out the clock. McCain needs to force a punt and then go down the field and score a touchdown without any timeouts.



Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.

[JoeChalupa]

I hear ya and I'm not saying Obama will lose because I'm still confident but I also know that polls have been wrong before but I do think he has enough electoral votes to win but it will be closer.
BARACK ON!!

[MannyIsGod]

I told you guys how struck by this I was in Ohio and now the post has a story about it. This is the mention from electoral-vote.com along with a link to the article:



Ohio Voters Are Wary of the Integrity of the Election

First-time Ohio voters may be forgiven if they have forgotten the problems and controversies concerning the 2004 Ohio election, but older voters remember them well (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102904545.html?hpid=topnews). Republicans are worried about ineligible voters casting a ballot and Democrats are worried about eligible voters being denied the right to vote. In truth there is hardly any evidence (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fraud.html) that many ineligible voters have ever voted. In fact, this issue was the heart of the U.S. attorneys scandal, when the Bush administration pushed many U.S. attorneys to prosecute voter fraud and the attorneys argued there really wasn't any fraud to prosecute, which prompted the administration to fire (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/14/washington/14justice.html?_r=1&oref=login&pagewanted=all) a number of them.

[JoeChalupa]

A Pew analysis concluded that undecideds will likely split equally for McCain and Obama on Election Day. :tu

[MannyIsGod]

I doubt that but I don't really care. One thing to remember about the true undecideds on election day is that many just won't vote.

[whottt]

Pew stinks.

[MannyIsGod]

Man one thing is for sure. Each day that goes by amps up my apprehension level. I'm gripping this morning after listening to Morning Joe and hearing about that stupid PA poll that they haven't released cross tabs for. I can rationally understand that Obama is in a great position but I'd be flat out lying if I said I wasn't worried quite a bit.

It really is Charlie Brown football syndrome, but I'm glad I'll be busy as hell this weekend because if not I'd probably go nuts hitting the refresh button time and time again.

[florige]

Man one thing is for sure. Each day that goes by amps up my apprehension level. I'm gripping this morning after listening to Morning Joe and hearing about that stupid PA poll that they haven't released cross tabs for. I can rationally understand that Obama is in a great position but I'd be flat out lying if I said I wasn't worried quite a bit.

It really is Charlie Brown football syndrome, but I'm glad I'll be busy as hell this weekend because if not I'd probably go nuts hitting the refresh button time and time again.



I'm not buying it. From damn near 15 points a week ago to 4 points today. WTF is there a whole other section of PA that EVERYONE forgot to poll until now which is housing 90% Republicans or something?

[JoeChalupa]

Man one thing is for sure. Each day that goes by amps up my apprehension level. I'm gripping this morning after listening to Morning Joe and hearing about that stupid PA poll that they haven't released cross tabs for. I can rationally understand that Obama is in a great position but I'd be flat out lying if I said I wasn't worried quite a bit.

It really is Charlie Brown football syndrome, but I'm glad I'll be busy as hell this weekend because if not I'd probably go nuts hitting the refresh button time and time again.

I watched Morning Joe too and this is why I say it ain't over yet.

[MannyIsGod]

I watched Morning Joe too and this is why I say it ain't over yet.

Well their schtick this mornign was extremely biased and piss poor, IMO. they kept harping this poll and they kept harping the Gallup traditional likely voter model but they didn't say shit about the likely voter model that most polling sites are using since Gallup is running 2.

They also made up stupid shit about how Obama needed to be up 4 points (LOL) in order to win. It was really bad this morning and normally I like them but today I really wanted to puke at how shitty Scarbourguh was being and how Chuck Todd just followed on a leash.

[Findog]

Man one thing is for sure. Each day that goes by amps up my apprehension level. I'm gripping this morning after listening to Morning Joe and hearing about that stupid PA poll that they haven't released cross tabs for. I can rationally understand that Obama is in a great position but I'd be flat out lying if I said I wasn't worried quite a bit.

It really is Charlie Brown football syndrome, but I'm glad I'll be busy as hell this weekend because if not I'd probably go nuts hitting the refresh button time and time again.

By definition that poll is an outlier...every other poll has Obama up by double digits in Penn or damn close to it.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1029.html

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah I realize all that but I just want the damn cross tabs so taht I can see them giving the youth vote to McCain or to under represent something or someone. Its just annoying me right now because I want to squash this god damn poll and NBC isn't linking shit which seems like they're just screwing with me.

Damn NBC.

[JoeChalupa]

Well their schtick this mornign was extremely biased and piss poor, IMO. they kept harping this poll and they kept harping the Gallup traditional likely voter model but they didn't say shit about the likely voter model that most polling sites are using since Gallup is running 2.

They also made up stupid shit about how Obama needed to be up 4 points (LOL) in order to win. It was really bad this morning and normally I like them but today I really wanted to puke at how shitty Scarbourguh was being and how Chuck Todd just followed on a leash.

Yeah but I think Joe calls it as he sees it and Chuck is also just going by what the data shows and that the polls show the race is tightening. I'll be nervous on Tuesday for sure.

[Findog]

Yeah but I think Joe calls it as he sees it and Chuck is also just going by what the data shows and that the polls show the race is tightening. I'll be nervous on Tuesday for sure.

I don't see the "tightening" at all. Rasmussen had it at 50-47 yesterday, that bounced back to 51-46 today. So what we're seeing is noise. I think this will end up being closer than people think though.

My final prediction:

Popular vote: Obama 52%, McCain 47%, Third Party 1%

EC: Obama: Kerry States + Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, probably Ohio. I think McCain holds on to North Carolina, Mizzou and Indiana, but any of those states turning blue would not shock me.

[whottt]

The polls are tightening because they still have their credibility to worry about...it doesn't matter how far off they are in the months leading up to the election, it does matter how far off they are on election day...they've been correcting for a couple of weeks now, as I said they would.


Ditto the media...a couple of these organizations have nearly put themselves into bankruptcy attempting to get Obama elected, and a few others have thrown their leigitimacy into the toilet in the name of this same cause...they are correcting themselves now as well, because hey, they can't influence elections if they're out of business and no one is watching...also called previously by whottt.




Maybe you guys should try picking someone who doesn't hate America for a change? You'd be amazed at how easily and cheaply the Presidency could be won away from the Republicans once you stop trying to elect Jane Fonda and Bill Ayers.

[JoeChalupa]

Oh STFU with all that "Hate America" crap. It is clear that Sarah Palin hates parts of America so that spin won't work anymore.

[clambake]

Oh STFU with all that "Hate America" crap. It is clear that Sarah Palin hates parts of America so that spin won't work anymore.

not entirely true, joe.

if i truly hated america, i'd definitely vote for palin.

[whottt]

Oh STFU with all that "Hate America" crap. It is clear that Sarah Palin hates parts of America so that spin won't work anymore.

Go ahead...kill the messenger, because that'll get Kerr..er Obama elected.


There are decent Democrats out there...you guys just refuse to give them the nomination.


It's funny...because Bush was not a moderate, he just won in 2004 because he was more moderate than Kerry....


McCain is a moderate...and Obama is less of a moderate than Kerry, do you guys truly believe the American political pendulum is going to swing that far?

Major FUCKING Hint: We just elected Bush in 2004.

[Findog]

The polls are tightening because they still have their credibility to worry about...it doesn't matter how far off they are in the months leading up to the election, it does matter how far off they are on election day...they've been correcting for a couple of weeks now, as I said they would.


Ditto the media...a couple of these organizations have nearly put themselves into bankruptcy attempting to get Obama elected, and a few others have thrown their leigitimacy into the toilet in the name of this same cause...they are correcting themselves now as well, because hey, they can't influence elections if they're out of business and no one is watching...also called previously by whottt.




Maybe you guys should try picking someone who doesn't hate America for a change? You'd be amazed at how easily and cheaply the Presidency could be won away from the Republicans once you stop trying to elect Jane Fonda and Bill Ayers.

Thank you, Sean Hannittt

[whottt]

Yhou know it's funny...I never listened to Sean Hannity or Rush before this election regularly...I hated those two douchebags...I still hate Rush, talk about a blithering idiot.


Sean Hannity OTOH is now one of my favorites...I gained a whole new level of respect for him when he was the only guy truly willing to go after Obama, he was the only guy that said fuck political correctness, there's shit I don't like about this guy and I am going to talk about it. If McCain/Palin win this election the first thing they need to do is go get down on their knees and kiss Sean Hannity's ass.

He's surpassed Rush and Bill O'Reilly...

My opinion...he's far and away the #1 guy Obamazombies want to see dead. That's reason enough to like him right there :tu

[clambake]

haven't you noticed they already kiss his ass?

[Findog]

If McCain/Palin win this election the first thing they need to do is go get down on their knees and kiss Sean Hannity's ass.
.

What do you mean "If," you bet hedger? According to my sig, McCain has this thing in the bag

[florige]

Go ahead...kill the messenger, because that'll get Kerr..er Obama elected.


There are decent Democrats out there...you guys just refuse to give them the nomination.

It's funny...because Bush was not a moderate, he just won in 2004 because he was more moderate than Kerry....


McCain is a moderate...and Obama is less of a moderate than Kerry, do you guys truly believe the American political pendulum is going to swing that far?

Major FUCKING Hint: We just elected Bush in 2004.




What other democrats would have changed your vote Whottt just off the top of your head?

[whottt]

haven't you noticed they already kiss his ass?


Not nearly enough...McCain is actually the one that needs to kiss his ass...Palin not so much, she's been going after Obama.

[clambake]

What other democrats would have changed your vote Whottt just off the top of your head?


ted kennedy

[smeagol]

Yhou know it's funny...I never listened to Sean Hannity or Rush before this election regularly...I hated those two douchebags...I still hate Rush, talk about a blithering idiot.


Sean Hannity OTOH is now one of my favorites...I gained a whole new level of respect for him when he was the only guy truly willing to go after Obama, he was the only guy that said fuck political correctness, there's shit I don't like about this guy and I am going to talk about it. If McCain/Palin win this election the first thing they need to do is go get down on their knees and kiss Sean Hannity's ass.

He's surpassed Rush and Bill O'Reilly...

My opinion...he's far and away the #1 guy Obamazombies want to see dead. That's reason enough to like him right there :tu

I could care less about Obama (or McCain, for that matter) but I think Hannity is an idiot of the highest caliber.

[ElNono]

I'll leave the political forum for 6 months after the election no matter who wins :tu

I'll keep my sig for 10 months :tu

[ElNono]

The polls are tightening because they still have their credibility to worry about...it doesn't matter how far off they are in the months leading up to the election, it does matter how far off they are on election day...they've been correcting for a couple of weeks now, as I said they would.

The polls historically always tightened in the last weeks of election. Pretty much everyone here said it a while ago.



Ditto the media...a couple of these organizations have nearly put themselves into bankruptcy attempting to get Obama elected, and a few others have thrown their leigitimacy into the toilet in the name of this same cause...they are correcting themselves now as well, because hey, they can't influence elections if they're out of business and no one is watching...also called previously by whottt.


What's this media nonsense? Wasn't the media trying to hide the Obama's birth certificate 'scandal'. Wasn't Fox News '75% in the tank for Obama'?
As usual, you keep contradicting yourself. I see you learned a thing or two from your mentor, Mr. (ins)Hannity...



Maybe you guys should try picking someone who doesn't hate America for a change? You'd be amazed at how easily and cheaply the Presidency could be won away from the Republicans once you stop trying to elect Jane Fonda and Bill Ayers.

:lmao Spoken like a true pitbull bitch fanatic.
What's next? Obama is the Anti-Christ?

[Shastafarian]

"We believe that the best of America is not all in Washington, D.C. We believe, we believe that the best of America is in the small towns that we get to visit, and in the wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America, being here with all of you hard working very patriotic, very pro-America areas of this great nation. This is where we find the kindness and the goodness and the courage of everyday Americans. Those who are running our factories and teaching our kids and growing our food and fighting our wars for us. Those who are protecting us in uniform. Those who are protecting the virtues of freedom."

Sounds to me like whoever said this doesn't like parts of America. Can we call this person anti-American?

[hitmanyr2k]

Well their schtick this mornign was extremely biased and piss poor, IMO. they kept harping this poll and they kept harping the Gallup traditional likely voter model but they didn't say shit about the likely voter model that most polling sites are using since Gallup is running 2.

They also made up stupid shit about how Obama needed to be up 4 points (LOL) in order to win. It was really bad this morning and normally I like them but today I really wanted to puke at how shitty Scarbourguh was being and how Chuck Todd just followed on a leash.

It's all about the ratings. People aren't going to stay tuned in if they get reports that Obama is running away with this thing so the smart thing to do is focus on the one poll that's going to bring some drama and spice things up a bit.

[Cry Havoc]

Yhou know it's funny...I never listened to Sean Hannity or Rush before this election regularly...I hated those two douchebags...I still hate Rush, talk about a blithering idiot.


Sean Hannity OTOH is now one of my favorites...I gained a whole new level of respect for him when he was the only guy truly willing to go after Obama, he was the only guy that said fuck political correctness, there's shit I don't like about this guy and I am going to talk about it. If McCain/Palin win this election the first thing they need to do is go get down on their knees and kiss Sean Hannity's ass.

He's surpassed Rush and Bill O'Reilly...

My opinion...he's far and away the #1 guy Obamazombies want to see dead. That's reason enough to like him right there :tu


:lmao

[baseline bum]

If McCain/Palin win this election the first thing they need to do is go get down on their knees and kiss Sean Hannity's ass.


What's this if shit? I thought Palin/McCain was going to pull 300+ EV including New York.

[whottt]

What other democrats would have changed your vote Whottt just off the top of your head?


You want Presidential Nominees that would have changed my mind, or Running mates? Or both?



Put it this way...when I was leading towards Obama...his choice of Biden pushed me away. I didn't want 1 of the the only 2 guys in congress further to the left than Obama...

Jim Webb, Wesley Clark, Bill Richardson...oh yeah Hillary Clinton. Those are just off the top of my head....as Presidential Nominees or VPs.


Jim Webb would have been a brilliant selection as a running mate...would have answered every single doubt about Obama's patriotism and intentions, as no one doubts this guy is a Pro American guy...he can actually go look Medal of Honor winners in the face and question their patriotism.

And he'd have carried Virginia...

And he's every bit against the Iraq War as anyone is....


That was your guy to adress Obama's weaknesses...

And people would have felt much better about Obama's economic plans if the Clintons were riding along with him...

All these guys being more experienced than Obama would have been better nominees...but just adding them to the ticket would have been a huge game changer...

Joe Biden was not...plus he's an idiot. He brought nothing to the ticket...no votes, no balance..he carries a state pretty much guaranteed to go blue anyway, and it's not even a major one. And I'm sorry but he says more stupid things than Bush and Quayle combined.

[whottt]

What's this if shit? I thought Palin/McCain was going to pull 300+ EV including New York.


There's predictions and then there's objevtive analysis...try not to confuse the two. There's no such thing as an objective prediction.

[MannyIsGod]

There's predictions and then there's objevtive analysis...try not to confuse the two. There's no such thing as an objective prediction.


:lmao x 35083408304380493843098430948034843098340938093834 09843098093480934843098340980938

[LnGrrrR]

Jim Webb, Wesley Clark, Bill Richardson...oh yeah Hillary Clinton. Those are just off the top of my head....as Presidential Nominees or VPs.

I think Jim Webb would've been alright, but I heard he doesn't fundraise well. Wesley Clark would've been fine. Bill Richardson might've scared away votes (brown and black oh no!), plus Richardson makes a good amount of gaffes on his own. And no way I would want Obama with Hillary Clinton AND Bill Clinton behind him. No more triangulation, thanks.

[MannyIsGod]

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/10/30/image001.jpg

LOL

[DarkReign]

The irony and contradictions are overwhelming in that pic.

A confederate flag to support Obama?!

:lmao Thats rich. Real mavriks there.

[MannyIsGod]

Its a real surreal picture. It doesn't trump the "We're voting for the ######" canvessing story though.

[JoeChalupa]

That is classic!! :tu

[Das Texan]

Its a real surreal picture. It doesn't trump the "We're voting for the ######" canvessing story though.



i havent heard about that one yet.



its gotta be classic in some way though i would think.

[romad_20]

Jim Webb would have been a brilliant selection as a running mate

Ican't believe I'm saying this, but I agree. :wow He said he didn't want it though. I'll take him at his word.

Jim Webb is a great Senator and I think he may be president one day. Thank you for that new GI Bill(the one McCain and Bush were adamantly against)

[MannyIsGod]

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3183/2987446265_b076ab7171_o.png

Today's polls are pretty damn good for Barack. That PA poll sucks, but Nate Silver points out that Mason-Dixon has had a GOP bias and no other polls are showing that kind of movement in that state.

UT poll has TX at +11 which sounds about right. I'm really counting on high minority turnout to close that to more around the +5 McCain range but swinging six points based on turnout is a pretty steep proposition.

[Das Texan]

if obama is within 10 points in texas that will be a win in my book.

[MannyIsGod]

LOL

http://thepiratesdilemma.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/obama.jpg

[timvp]

Alright, Manny. One month sig bet. I say Texas will be 5.5%+ red. I'll even give you a half a percentage point on your prediction.

Deal?

:smokin

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao @ you taking the easiest bet against me.

Yeah deal. Poll yesterday came out from UT showing TX @ 11 points so I need a miracle at this point. At least someone is willing to bet me though.

[timvp]

:lmao @ you taking the easiest bet against me.

Yeah deal. Poll yesterday came out from UT showing TX @ 11 points so I need a miracle at this point. At least someone is willing to bet me though.

Sweet.

What sucks is I'll be voting against myself in five days :rollin

[JoeChalupa]

Dead Heats in 2 Key States (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15117.html)

Barack Obama and John McCain are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states’ crucial battleground counties, according to new Politico/InsiderAdvantage polls.

In North Carolina, Obama and McCain were tied with 48 percent of the vote. Only 3 percent of voters in the state remain undecided. In Missouri, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 47 percent, an edge that was within the margin of error.

Voters in North Carolina’s Wake County, however, part of the politically competitive Research Triangle area, chose Obama by a solid 53 percent to 39 percent margin. That represented a considerable improvement over Obama’s showing in Politico’s first survey of Wake, taken October 9, when he led McCain by a margin of 50 percent to 44 percent.


With McCain closing in on Obama in FL and NC and Ohio it will be much closer than people think. I still believe Obama wins but it won't be the clear victory I thought he had just a week ago.

[MannyIsGod]

He's not closing in on OH, after the polls and early voting stuff I looked at yesterday I'm starting to lean back to landslide.

[MannyIsGod]

I'll give you a slight tightening in FL but its been pretty steady at this point for quite some time. Ohio on the other hand, has not tightened and has actually seen a lead that has grown a bit for Obama.

its not looking good at all for McCain right now.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh and in the other thread I called GA competitive but I'm beyond that right now - its going for Obama.

[florige]

He's not closing in on OH, after the polls and early voting stuff I looked at yesterday I'm starting to lean back to landslide.


I'll give you a slight tightening in FL but its been pretty steady at this point for quite some time. Ohio on the other hand, has not tightened and has actually seen a lead that has grown a bit for Obama.

its not looking good at all for McCain right now.


Oh and in the other thread I called GA competitive but I'm beyond that right now - its going for Obama.






Sweet..... :hat

[florige]

You want Presidential Nominees that would have changed my mind, or Running mates? Or both?



Put it this way...when I was leading towards Obama...his choice of Biden pushed me away. I didn't want 1 of the the only 2 guys in congress further to the left than Obama...

Jim Webb, Wesley Clark, Bill Richardson...oh yeah Hillary Clinton. Those are just off the top of my head....as Presidential Nominees or VPs.


Jim Webb would have been a brilliant selection as a running mate...would have answered every single doubt about Obama's patriotism and intentions, as no one doubts this guy is a Pro American guy...he can actually go look Medal of Honor winners in the face and question their patriotism.

And he'd have carried Virginia...

And he's every bit against the Iraq War as anyone is....


That was your guy to adress Obama's weaknesses...

And people would have felt much better about Obama's economic plans if the Clintons were riding along with him...

All these guys being more experienced than Obama would have been better nominees...but just adding them to the ticket would have been a huge game changer...

Joe Biden was not...plus he's an idiot. He brought nothing to the ticket...no votes, no balance..he carries a state pretty much guaranteed to go blue anyway, and it's not even a major one. And I'm sorry but he says more stupid things than Bush and Quayle combined.



So you would have picked Obama if he picked Webb, EVEN with the Palin pickup by McCain?

[Das Texan]

Oh and in the other thread I called GA competitive but I'm beyond that right now - its going for Obama.



thats gotta be great news for the democrats in their quest for 60.

[JoeChalupa]

Damn, add election analysis to Manny's weather analysis!! Thanks for the updates.

[MannyIsGod]

Check out these figures to get a grasp on how much the black vote has increased in this election.

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/3416/ncdy0.jpg

[boutons_]

McNasty NOT able to guarantee AZ

Poll: McCain Tied In Arizona, Loses Senate Seat In 2010http://www.google.com/reader/ui/2412528845-go-to.gif (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/31/poll-mccain-tied-in-arizo_n_139699.html)

from HuffingtonPost Full Feed (http://www.google.com/reader/view/feed/http%3A%2F%2Ffeeds.huffingtonpost.com%2Fhuffington post%2Fraw_feed) by The Huffington Post News Editors

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

I can't believe we may actually win Arizona. And I have a bonus treat for you guys:

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53

[JoeChalupa]

McCain is about ready to retire anyhow.

[Bartleby]

McCain is about ready to retire anyhow.

Probably in the most absolute sense of the word.

[KenMcCoy]

If/When he loses, you won't see him anymore. He won't run for senate again.

[KenMcCoy]

Plus AZ has been infiltrated by all of the liberal Californians trying to find affordable housing. Just like TX.

[JoeChalupa]

Watching Morning Joe and they are making me nervous.

[Mr. Peabody]

Watching Morning Joe and they are making me nervous.

Ha. That's what the show is. Scarborough and Buchanan come up with every scenario where McCain can win and try to extrapolate winning scenarios from any slight change in the polls. Then, Chuck Todd comes in and tells them that their scenarios are nothing but the remotest of possibilities. Mika throws up her hands and says "I just don't know what's going to happen, but it'll be close." Eugene sits back and laughs at all of them.

[whottt]

McCain was up by 1 on yesterday's Zogby...I believe that's the first time McCain has been up in the Zogby poll...the previous day OBama was up by 7 or something...

Ramussen now has Penn as a 4 point state...it was 13 points 2 weeks ago.

[baseline bum]

How about New York? And I thought all polls sucked anyways?

[whottt]

Now for some discussion you won't see anywhere else based upon my own research.

Let's check out Washington state.


It's really best if you just click on the link to get the real picture:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Washington 2,883,499 68.2%
Clark Cnty html 106,053 61.6% 172,277 62.8% 10/31
King Cnty html 316,995 35.3% 899,199 62.8% 10/31
Pierce Cnty Pdf 125,330 39.5% 317,012 80.3% 10/31
Snohomish Cnty Pdf 126,709 42.6% 297,187 65.3% 10/30
Spokane Cnty Pdf 132,172 64.8% 203,886 64.3% 10/31
Whatcom Cnty html 60,165 65.7% 91,515 72.8% 10/31




Washington State goes blue because of one county, King, it's largest. This very blue county has 900,000 or so voters. Kerry won this county by 280,000 votes in 2004...in contrast Kerry won the entire state of Washington by 210,000 votes.


2004 Washington State Electoral Map:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WA/P/00/index.html


Well this county has had about 200,000 fewer votes cast in it's 2008 early voting period than it did in 2004. It's the county with the largest disparity between it's 2004 early voting PCT and 2008. 200,000 fewer votes, in a state and county Kerry won by 200,000 votes.

All of the big red counties are turning out to the same degree they did in 2004...none of the big blue counties are, they all show a decline in turnout.

IMO, these are good signs for McCain and bad signs for Obama.


But Obama dominated the caucus you say?

Yeah...but he didn't dominate the Primary...he took 354k voters compared to to 315k for Hillary....that's more than enough disenfranchised voters to give this state to McCain...who took 250k in the Republican primary inspite of strong turnouts for Huckabee and Paul.

[whottt]

How about New York?

You got any links to NY's early voting? Do they even have it? I am more than willing to look at it if you care to provide the info :tu





And I thought all polls sucked anyways?


They do...they just suck less the closer we get to the election...they do have their credibility to worry about after all.

I said I wasn't going to pay any attention to them when they were showing results all over the place, and some results than I knew were jokes...like Obama being up by 10% in West Virginia. I said I'd start paying more attention to thm when they started settling down and regaining their grip on reality.

10 points in West Virginia?

Get fucking serious...I'd sooner believe Obama was up by 10% for Grand Dragon of the KKK than I'd believe he was up by 10 in WVA.


IMO, you guys need to be shitting when Rasmussen is showing Obama only up by 4 in PA...Rasmussen weights to a sickening degree in favor of Dems...and Penn is Hillary country.


Plus just about every Democrat in the United States has shit on PA in this election.

[Shastafarian]

Now for some discussion you won't see anywhere else based upon my own research.


So your name is Dr. Michael McDonald?

[Findog]

Now for some discussion you won't see anywhere else based upon my own research.

Let's check out Washington state.


It's really best if you just click on the link to get the real picture:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Washington 2,883,499 68.2%
Clark Cnty html 106,053 61.6% 172,277 62.8% 10/31
King Cnty html 316,995 35.3% 899,199 62.8% 10/31
Pierce Cnty Pdf 125,330 39.5% 317,012 80.3% 10/31
Snohomish Cnty Pdf 126,709 42.6% 297,187 65.3% 10/30
Spokane Cnty Pdf 132,172 64.8% 203,886 64.3% 10/31
Whatcom Cnty html 60,165 65.7% 91,515 72.8% 10/31




Washington State goes blue because of one county, King, it's largest. This very blue county has 900,000 or so voters. Kerry won this county by 280,000 votes in 2004...in contrast Kerry won the entire state of Washington by 210,000 votes.


2004 Washington State Electoral Map:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WA/P/00/index.html


Well this county has had about 200,000 fewer votes cast in it's 2008 early voting period than it did in 2004. It's the county with the largest disparity between it's 2004 early voting PCT and 2008. 200,000 fewer votes, in a state and county Kerry won by 200,000 votes.

All of the big red counties are turning out to the same degree they did in 2004...none of the big blue counties are, they all show a decline in turnout.

IMO, these are good signs for McCain and bad signs for Obama.


But Obama dominated the caucus you say?

Yeah...but he didn't dominate the Primary...he took 354k voters compared to to 315k for Hillary....that's more than enough disenfranchised voters to give this state to McCain...who took 250k in the Republican primary inspite of strong turnouts for Huckabee and Paul.

So Wash state goes red. Another whottt prediction!

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao

Whottt - google is your friend. Your research fucking sucks dude. I mean its so easy to
refute you it should be criminal.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008337774_slowcount01m0.html

Early voting or Absentee voting? How much of the county votes by mail? When will those ballots be counted?

[ChumpDumper]

Has your research factored in Massive Vote Fraud?

[Nbadan]

As a professional mathematician I have to say that if 08 is an honest election, and at this point that's a big IF, then McCain doesn't have a chance of winning...

Just like Hillary Clinton before him, John McCain is learning the harsh reality that is Barack Obama. The race could be 50-50 nationally, and it wouldn't matter. Obama is playing chess, not checkers. McCain has to win every single toss up state, and he'll still come up short.

It is now mathematically impossible for Obama to lose this election. The probability of the polls being so wrong is so incredibly small that the only explanation for a McCain win on Tuesday will be rigged voting machines, period.


It's over. Get out and vote, but it's over.

CNN Electoral Map Calculator (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/index.html)

[Findog]

If the GOP has this vaunted ability to steal elections, why did they get thumped so bad in the 06 midterms?

No doubt the GOP has their voter suppression tactics that they'll employ, but the only way Obama loses is if the pollster samples are weighted way too heavily in favor of the Democrats.

[Nbadan]

If the GOP has this vaunted ability to steal elections, why did they get thumped so bad in the 06 midterms?

No doubt the GOP has their voter suppression tactics that they'll employ, but the only way Obama loses is if the pollster samples are weighted way too heavily in favor of the Democrats.

Oh, they tried to steal seats in 06, but dumb-ass Rove underestimated the turnout for a non-Presidential year election....