Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson [Archive] - Page 2

exstatic

01-17-2023, 01:48 PM

I am happy that this draft seems deep, we all want Victor but Scoot, Miller, Whitmore, Thompson twins would all be great gets as well.

im actually starting to really get typed about Scoot or Miller tbh

The twins would be like buying a pig in a poke. You would really have no idea what you’re getting, since you’re basically drafting them off an AAU level team. Their competition is absolutely shit.

Was Brandon Miller one of he UA players at the murder scene? They only arrested the trigger man, but supposedly other players were present.

mo7888

01-17-2023, 01:52 PM

The twins would be like buying a pig in a poke. You would really have no idea what you’re getting, since you’re basically drafting them off an AAU level team. Their competition is absolutely shit.

Was Brandon Miller one of he UA players at the murder scene? They only arrested the trigger man, but supposedly other players were present.

That's the big question on Miller. That information should come out though so it'll help with the process. On the twins, individual workouts are going to be key... I've got them pretty high on my personal board, but I'm having to take huge liberties at this point for the very reason you pointed out... They literally could be challenging Scoot for #2 or falling out of the top 10 depending on workouts/interviews..

Ariel

01-17-2023, 01:53 PM

The twins would be like buying a pig in a poke. You would really have no idea what you’re getting, since you’re basically drafting them off an AAU level team. Their competition is absolutely shit.
That only means you should be extra careful not to get carried away, yes, but still the athleticism and skills are there and shouldn't be ruled out as a result. If anything, it's likely to cause them to drop some, and if we're unlucky in the lottery (say we end up picking 7th or so) maybe one of them ends up the higher upside pick available to us. With proper individual workouts, I wouldn't be opposed to picking one of them in such a scenario. They're basically the '23 version of Sharpe.

scott

01-18-2023, 12:30 AM

That only means you should be extra careful not to get carried away, yes, but still the athleticism and skills are there and shouldn't be ruled out as a result. If anything, it's likely to cause them to drop some, and if we're unlucky in the lottery (say we end up picking 7th or so) maybe one of them ends up the higher upside pick available to us. With proper individual workouts, I wouldn't be opposed to picking one of them in such a scenario. They're basically the '23 version of Sharpe.

This could be some unconscious bias at work, but it just seems like the type of kids who are going to go to Overtime Elite are probably the same type of kids who will demand a trade out of SA if they do actually pan out to be stars.

Ariel

01-18-2023, 12:38 AM

This could be some unconscious bias at work, but it just seems like the type of kids who are going to go to Overtime Elite are probably the same type of kids who will demand a trade out of SA if they do actually pan out to be stars.
I don't know about that. Barlow comes from Overtime Elite and he's a coachable, hard working kid. The Thompson brothers don't seem to be headcases. I have more concerns about Scoot wanting out that them, TBH. Even Wemby, God forbid. But in any case, that's a risk we have to take anyway.

scott

01-18-2023, 12:42 AM

I don't know about that. Barlow comes from Overtime Elite and he's a coachable, hard working kid. The Thompson brothers don't seem to be headcases. I have more concerns about Scoot wanting out that them, TBH. Even Wemby, God forbid. But in any case, that's a risk we have to take anyway.

I for sure get that vibe from Scoot. Honestly, from any American prospect that forgoes college. I get a little less concerned with foreign prospects, because they didn’t grow up in American consumerism culture… but heck, with kids these days you never know.

Those are the “get of my lawn” rambling thoughts of this 40-something year old :lol

Spursfanfromafar

01-18-2023, 02:02 PM

I don't know about that. Barlow comes from Overtime Elite and he's a coachable, hard working kid. The Thompson brothers don't seem to be headcases. I have more concerns about Scoot wanting out that them, TBH. Even Wemby, God forbid. But in any case, that's a risk we have to take anyway.

I saw some OTE highlights of the twins and boy, Amen Thompson reminds me of Manu Ginobili in the way he plays. He is absolutely explosive in his athleticism, a brilliant passer and a terrific live dribble player. All he lacks is a good jumpshot and if he can work on that and get it.. he will be a force to reckon with in the NBA. His twin Ausar is quite similar, but more defensive minded and a better spot up shooter and not as good in passing/finishing. One of these guys could be good consolation prizes for teams missing out on Wemby/Scoot.

duncan2150

01-18-2023, 06:24 PM

Some recent performances of some prospects :

Brandon Miller continues to impress

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv6yjoFkaAA

https://twitter.com/ZachMilner13/status/1615737201299722243

Good game by Keyonte George Yesterday

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTtcptjssCc

BacktoBasics

01-18-2023, 07:34 PM

That Miller highlight really doesn’t impress me all that much. No explosion. He’s got good feel and motion but I don’t see anything there I can’t live without. George maybe looked a little better but his release looks kinda low.

Drom John

01-20-2023, 11:28 AM

The Ringer's 2023 NBA Draft Guide (https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.107683522.1333596165.1674146142-1600694364.1614180346)

Mock Draft Updated 1.19

4
San Antonio Spurs
Amen Thompson

Overtime Elite, USA
Amen Thompson
Playmaker
Height 6'7" Weight 200
Age 20.4 Wingspan 6'9"
San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio is loaded with young wings like Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell, but the team needs an energizer. Thompson could run point for the new era of the Spurs, and fit into their system with his willingness to play off the ball. For years, Thompson has excelled sharing the rock with his twin brother, Ausar, and in San Antonio he’d be paired with teammates worthy of getting touches.

Electric shot creator with a distinguished combination of passing vision and zippy athleticism.
Venn Diagaram Icon
Shades Of
Tall Ja Morant, Beanpole Zion Williamson

Athleticismbadge
Athleticism
Human Highlightbadge
Human Highlight
Ballhandlingbadge
Ballhandling
Positional Versatilitybadge
Positional Versatility

PLUSES

Otherworldly athlete. He has open-floor speed, quick-twitch bodily movements, functional control of his body, burst off the dribble, and rocket-ship verticality.

Playmaker who goes through his reads like a quarterback. He delivers every type of pass with accuracy, and with his height he can see over the defense to make passes from high angles.

Turns into Mario with a super star when he gets the ball. It speeds him up even more, but he stays under control by using hesitation moves. Going from fast to slow allows him to get wherever he wants on the court. He needs to tighten up some of his moves, but that should happen in time.

Turns steals and defensive rebounds into instant offense with immediate outlet passes. If he plays with bigs who run, he will reward them. Or he’ll rev his engine and push the ball up the court himself for powerful interior finishes.

Excellent at applying ball pressure, moving laterally, and navigating screens, consistently showing great fundamentals. He has active hands, using them to poke at the ball or simply disturb the opponent’s rhythm. But when he needs to just play solid defense, he can execute.

Makes all the right plays in help situations. If he’s rotating into the paint to stop a drive, he’s explosive enough to offer rim protection and speedy enough to close out on 3s. And if he’s switched on to a larger player trying to post him up, he battles hard to deny entry passes.

MINUSES

Defenses already dare him to shoot. NBA teams will do the same by going under ball screens or sagging off him when he’s spotting up. If his shot doesn’t develop it’ll complicate his team fit in the same way it does with Ben Simmons.

There’s little reason for optimism that he’ll become any more than a passable shooter. He struggles from the line and from the field. He’s shown a willingness to change his mechanics, but the results haven’t improved.

He’ll need to prove himself as a half-court scorer against higher-level competition. One of his best opportunities to prove himself to scouts came in the Basketball Tournament against a team of former Creighton players, and he showed a lack of counters when his initial penetration attempt was contained.

mo7888

01-20-2023, 11:32 AM

The Ringer's 2023 NBA Draft Guide (https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.107683522.1333596165.1674146142-1600694364.1614180346)

Mock Draft Updated 1.19

Beanpole Zion Williamson.... I'm not sure how to process that one...

scott

01-20-2023, 12:27 PM

Tall Ja/Beanpole Zion does not compute… wtf does that even mean?

Was getting exciting reading the scouting report until they got to the shooting… that’s definitely disappointing.

JPB

01-20-2023, 02:29 PM

That Miller highlight really doesn’t impress me all that much. No explosion. He’s got good feel and motion but I don’t see anything there I can’t live without. George maybe looked a little better but his release looks kinda low.

Hard to really judge against college "defenses" and reading seems good but speed and athlecism don't seem outstanding. Coudn't help thinking about TP seeing that Miller spin move and well, Miller isn't there.

JPB

01-20-2023, 02:36 PM

Tall Ja/Beanpole Zion does not compute… wtf does that even mean?

Guess it's related to his skinnier frame.

Now, Scoot Henderson: "Shades of Efficient Russell Westbrook"... Ouch.

And for people doubting Wemby unicorn-ess. he already tried and is working on a floater... from behind the arc.

Mr. Body

01-20-2023, 02:56 PM

It feels like it's Wembanyama and a bunch of extreeemely distant prospects.

Ariel

01-20-2023, 03:02 PM

It feels like it's Wembanyama and a bunch of extreeemely distant prospects.
That would be the case with Wemby in 95% of all draft classes (sans '03, '96, '84, and a few others). But yes, I do share that there's a steep decline (after 2) where there's significant potential, but no home run type picks. In fact a lot of the prospects mentioned in the top 10 I might skip altogether, and I'm thinking I'd probably take 2 picks in the 10-15 range, over one in the 5-9.

Ocotillo

01-20-2023, 03:08 PM

He’ll need to prove himself as a half-court scorer against higher-level competition. One of his best opportunities to prove himself to scouts came in the Basketball Tournament against a team of former Creighton players, and he showed a lack of counters when his initial penetration attempt was contained.

Wonder if Dougie McBuckets was locking him up as a former Creighton player? :lol

Drom John

01-22-2023, 11:18 AM

Wonder if Dougie McBuckets was locking him up as a former Creighton player? :lol

Current Roster:
Admon Gilder (Texas A&M & Gonzaga)
Austin Chatman (Creighton)
Deion Bute (Central Connecticut State)
Deverell Biggs (Nebraska & Texas Southern)
Greg Smith (Colorado State)
Jahenns Manigat (Creighton)
Justin Patton (Creighton)
Manny Suarez (Fordham, Adelphi, & Creighton)
Marcus Foster (Creighton)
Ronnie Harrell (Creighton)
Tre’Shawn Thurman (Omaha & Nevada)
Wayne Runnels Jr. (Creighton)

Coaching Staff/GM:
Josh Jones (GM/Head Coach)
Doug McDermott (Asst. Coach)
James “Ice” Benford (Asst. Coach)
Michael Vandervoort (GM)

Ed Helicopter Jones

01-22-2023, 03:28 PM

I wouldn't be too disappointed if the Spurs ended up with Amen Thompson. Our team shooting will continue to suck, but the kid has superstar ceiling provided he can improve his shooting.

james evans

01-23-2023, 12:11 PM

Doesn't matter who we get because as long as popovich is here coaching like it's 1999, we're gonna fucking suck.

ace3g

01-27-2023, 10:44 PM

https://twitter.com/albertoeghim/status/1618651791360655360

Mr. Body

01-28-2023, 09:06 PM

Not for this draft year, but I want to log interest in Indiana's Jalen Hood-Schafino, their freshman point guard. He has 6/7 from deep in the first half against OSU, although he's not really a huge scorer. More of a true point with good size, he sees the floor very well, understands where his guys are and seeks them out. Unless somehow he blows up in the next two months he'll stay another year, but he has talent.

Dejounte

01-29-2023, 08:15 AM

Keyonte George separating himself from the pack

in terms of special talent aside from Wemba, I think there are three:

Keyonte George
Scoot
Cam Whitmore

the good thing is Keyonte and Cam could be nabbed as low as 5th or 6th.

Dejounte

01-29-2023, 08:49 AM

https://twitter.com/onthe_clockbb/status/1617959394893000704?s=46

Eyepopping elite skillset and athleticism tbh

BacktoBasics

01-29-2023, 09:28 AM

https://twitter.com/onthe_clockbb/status/1617959394893000704?s=46

Eyepopping elite skillset and athleticism tbh

These highlights look a bit more athletic than the last ones I watched.

I still don't think I'd call it elite athleticism. He's getting around inferior players with ease but I wouldn't characterize that as explosive.

He's smooth but his release looks low and slow.

I'm not sure I'd say he's fast either.

Dejounte

01-29-2023, 10:57 AM

These highlights look a bit more athletic than the last ones I watched.

I still don't think I'd call it elite athleticism. He's getting around inferior players with ease but I wouldn't characterize that as explosive.

He's smooth but his release looks low and slow.

I'm not sure I'd say he's fast either.

Just telling ya what I see. Maybe they’re inferior players because he’s making them look inferior. Elite athleticism isn’t having a motor that lets you go 100% all the time a la Westbrook or even Shai. For example, Zion isn’t fast but people would still call him an athletic freak. Not many of the lottery projected players are close to Cam in terms of athleticism. Scoot is obviously there, but that’s about it. Edit: and those twins probably as well but they’re not natural shooters so I don’t rate them as highly as Cam.

exstatic

01-29-2023, 11:07 AM

These highlights look a bit more athletic than the last ones I watched.

I still don't think I'd call it elite athleticism. He's getting around inferior players with ease but I wouldn't characterize that as explosive.

He's smooth but his release looks low and slow.

I'm not sure I'd say he's fast either.

If you ever watched Diaw on the court, you’d never think of him as an elite athlete, but even being shorter and heavier, he cleared more slats on the vertical test than A’m’a’r’e’ did, all of them.

scott

01-29-2023, 01:30 PM

https://twitter.com/onthe_clockbb/status/1617959394893000704?s=46

Eyepopping elite skillset and athleticism tbh

Based on this I'm into it. Shades of Klaw and prime Rudy Gay

offset formation

01-29-2023, 02:06 PM

Based on this I'm into it. Shades of Klaw and prime Rudy Gay

Just imagining a scenario where Wright drafts this guy over Wembanyama because he's the next neph.

scott

01-29-2023, 02:11 PM

Just imagining a scenario where Wright drafts this guy over Wembanyama because he's the next neph.

Why you gotta go out and throw that bad mojo out... time to sage the forum.

mo7888

01-29-2023, 02:50 PM

Keyonte George separating himself from the pack

in terms of special talent aside from Wemba, I think there are three:

Keyonte George
Scoot
Cam Whitmore

the good thing is Keyonte and Cam could be nabbed as low as 5th or 6th.

I'm pretty high on Whitmore... I don't see him falling below 5...I think George could be available between 7 and 12, although I personally have him at 8 right now..

KingKev

01-29-2023, 02:52 PM

Just imagining a scenario where Wright drafts this guy over Wembanyama because he's the next neph.

It’s a scary probability. Hopefully PATFO has learned from the J Primo experiment that they aren’t smarter than everyone else but i’m sure PATFO has some Puppeteers ready to take the reigns.

XDT76

01-29-2023, 07:21 PM

If you ever watched Diaw on the court, you’d never think of him as an elite athlete, but even being shorter and heavier, he cleared more slats on the vertical test than A’m’a’r’e’ did, all of them.

Those who watched him at Suns knows he is.

JPB

01-29-2023, 07:42 PM

https://twitter.com/onthe_clockbb/status/1617959394893000704?s=46

Eyepopping elite skillset and athleticism tbh

Strange thing about him is that he has great, fast ball handling but his shot and finishing, and even his passing actually, are pretty raw, not very fluid, which is a point of concern if you ask me...

Dejounte

01-29-2023, 08:26 PM

Strange thing about him is that he has great, fast ball handling but his shot and finishing, and even his passing actually, are pretty raw, not very fluid, which is a point of concern if you ask me...

His shot is trending up. He shot 50% on eight attempts today. As far as passing goes, we have enough unselfish passers on our team.

BacktoBasics

01-29-2023, 08:39 PM

His shot is trending up. He shot 50% on eight attempts. As far as passing goes, we have enough unselfish passers on our team.
Why do you think that low and slow release will translate?

It seems he’s going to require quite a bit of work to correct that.

This high up in the draft I want the least amount of a project as possible.

I’m not sour on the guy. Just trying to understand why people are so willing to overlook his shortcomings.

Dejounte

01-29-2023, 08:53 PM

Why do you think that low and slow release will translate?

It seems he’s going to require quite a bit of work to correct that.

This high up in the draft I want the least amount of a project as possible.

I’m not sour on the guy. Just trying to understand why people are so willing to overlook his shortcomings.

Because right after supreme dominance at the college level, the next big bet is freakish athleticism which is something you can’t teach. And there’s no lottery prospect dominating in college right now.

strictly speaking of if we’re picking in the top 5. If we’re picking outside of that, the philosophy is different.

BacktoBasics

01-29-2023, 09:50 PM

Because right after supreme dominance at the college level, the next big bet is freakish athleticism which is something you can’t teach. And there’s no lottery prospect dominating in college right now.

strictly speaking of if we’re picking in the top 5. If we’re picking outside of that, the philosophy is different.

I’ll reserve judgement on his freakish athleticism for now. I’m not feeling it but there’s a lot of time left.

Just based on my sample size I find Amen to be the better athlete.

ambchang

01-29-2023, 10:13 PM

Im probably in the very rare minority but I’m just not that big on Scoot. He could be the next Ja but he’s more like the next rose to me. Injuries are a concern. Fit with a small market team is a bigger concern. I’d still pick him number two but would look to trade him on his rookie deal if given the chance.

NASpurs

01-29-2023, 10:15 PM

Bottom 3 bitches!

Dejounte

01-29-2023, 10:17 PM

IMO he plays nothing like Ja. Ja’s an out of control jumping rabbit with infinite hang time. Scoot uses his hops much more selectively. And his game is predicated on anticipation moreso than Ja. Ja kills you with his speed and I’d argue is far too reliant on it, which won’t bode well for his game as he ages.

Atl Spur

01-29-2023, 10:48 PM

Scoots a problem….. not even really worth debating.

Atl Spur

01-29-2023, 10:53 PM

It’s a scary probability. Hopefully PATFO has learned from the J Primo experiment that they aren’t smarter than everyone else but i’m sure PATFO has some Puppeteers ready to take the reigns.

You trying to hard big guy�� Primo doesn’t play for the Spurs anymore, you must let that go ok?

Dejounte

01-30-2023, 12:25 AM

https://youtu.be/JFIri-nb11Q

Wait…WHAT? Whitmore’s wingspan is 7’3”? There’s no way… haven’t seen a wingspan-to-height ratio that large since Nephew.

offset formation

01-30-2023, 02:17 AM

https://youtu.be/JFIri-nb11Q

Wait…WHAT? Whitmore’s wingspan is 7’3”? There’s no way… haven’t seen a wingspan-to-height ratio that large since Nephew.

Shhhhhh. Pop and Wright will hear that and draft him at #1.

RC_Drunkford

01-30-2023, 03:32 AM

there are a lot of high ceiling prospects in this draft. I've seen GG Jackson mocked as low as 13th. Like I said before, the Spurs should try hard to get another first round pick in this draft

exstatic

01-30-2023, 06:55 AM

there are a lot of high ceiling prospects in this draft. I've seen GG Jackson mocked as low as 13th. Like I said before, the Spurs should try hard to get another first round pick in this draft

Almost impossible. No one is trading a lottery pick, and half of the non lottery picks have already been traded.

exstatic

01-30-2023, 11:03 PM

Rayan Rupert. French, currently 18, but draft eligible. Playing in the Australian NBL. 6’6” with a 7’3” wingspan.

offset formation

01-30-2023, 11:09 PM

there are a lot of high ceiling prospects in this draft. I've seen GG Jackson mocked as low as 13th. Like I said before, the Spurs should try hard to get another first round pick in this draft

Well they better do it before draft day because if we manage to secure Wembanyama nobody will even think of trading with us to come back into the 1st round.

Vince Carter's ankle

01-31-2023, 07:46 AM

Rayan Rupert. French, currently 18, but draft eligible. Playing in the Australian NBL. 6’6” with a 7’3” wingspan.
0.8 assists is pretty low for a guard.
But he moves well with the ball.

exstatic

01-31-2023, 07:58 AM

0.8 assists is pretty low for a guard.
But he moves well with the ball.

He’s 18, and in a grown man’s league, but last year in France, his numbers were 13.9p/3.5r/2.5a. Getting buzz as a FRP.

mo7888

01-31-2023, 09:22 AM

Rayan Rupert. French, currently 18, but draft eligible. Playing in the Australian NBL. 6’6” with a 7’3” wingspan.

I like him. I've just started watching him and several other guys slated in the last half of the first round. I've got him mid 20's right now but he's a guy that's probably going to be higher by draft time.

pad300

01-31-2023, 11:47 AM

If we get a mid to late first somehow, Baba Miller would be a guy to look at.

The Truth #6

01-31-2023, 12:59 PM

I’m curious who the spurs might prioritize and draft if there picking at let’s say 3 through five. I guess more specifically I’m curious if anyone thinks either of the Thompson twins would be picked by the Spurs. They seem to be right around where we are somewhat more likely to pick unless we get lucky.

For me it seems like: Victor and if we don’t strike gold with him or Scoot, then either roll the dice on one of these other guys, or reach for Anthony Black because he seems Spurs material, so to speak. Obviously people will rise and fall, but it’s a long ass time to the draft, and there isn’t much else to talk about….

BacktoBasics

01-31-2023, 01:11 PM

Help me out here.

Where do they need to end up to land the 2nd pick?

Wouldn't it be - worst record in the league if someone else wins the lottery or second worse record if the the team with the worst record wins the lottery?

If Spurs finish 3 or 4th in the standings but another team wins the lottery the best they can do is 4th or 5th.

Do I have that right?

There's no winning the 2nd pick for Scoot. To get 2nd pick they'd have to be the worst team in the league and not win the lottery.

I don't see that happening.

BacktoBasics

01-31-2023, 01:12 PM

I’m curious who the spurs might prioritize and draft if there picking at let’s say 3 through five. I guess more specifically I’m curious if anyone thinks either of the Thompson twins would be picked by the Spurs. They seem to be right around where we are somewhat more likely to pick unless we get lucky.

For me it seems like: Victor and if we don’t strike gold with him or Scoot, then either roll the dice on one of these other guys, or reach for Anthony Black because he seems Spurs material, so to speak. Obviously people will rise and fall, but it’s a long ass time to the draft, and there isn’t much else to talk about….Right now today if they're 4th or 5th I reach for Black.

3rd I'd take Amen.

Still early though.

mo7888

01-31-2023, 01:33 PM

I’m curious who the spurs might prioritize and draft if there picking at let’s say 3 through five. I guess more specifically I’m curious if anyone thinks either of the Thompson twins would be picked by the Spurs. They seem to be right around where we are somewhat more likely to pick unless we get lucky.

For me it seems like: Victor and if we don’t strike gold with him or Scoot, then either roll the dice on one of these other guys, or reach for Anthony Black because he seems Spurs material, so to speak. Obviously people will rise and fall, but it’s a long ass time to the draft, and there isn’t much else to talk about….

1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Amen Thompson
4. Cam Whitmore
5. Nick Smith Jr
6. Ausar Thompson
7. Brandon Miller
8. Keyonte George
9. Jarace Walker
10. Anthony Black

3,4, and 5 are really in the same tier to me (assuming health for Smith)

KingKev

01-31-2023, 01:35 PM

Help me out here.

Where do they need to end up to land the 2nd pick?

Wouldn't it be - worst record in the league if someone else wins the lottery or second worse record if the the team with the worst record wins the lottery?

If Spurs finish 3 or 4th in the standings but another team wins the lottery the best they can do is 4th or 5th.

Do I have that right?

There's no winning the 2nd pick for Scoot. To get 2nd pick they'd have to be the worst team in the league and not win the lottery.

I don't see that happening.

This is incorrect. The odds are dynamic and multiple teams can move up or down throughout the process.

spurraider21

01-31-2023, 01:42 PM

Help me out here.

Where do they need to end up to land the 2nd pick?

Wouldn't it be - worst record in the league if someone else wins the lottery or second worse record if the the team with the worst record wins the lottery?

If Spurs finish 3 or 4th in the standings but another team wins the lottery the best they can do is 4th or 5th.

Do I have that right?

There's no winning the 2nd pick for Scoot. To get 2nd pick they'd have to be the worst team in the league and not win the lottery.

I don't see that happening.
based on current standings:

https://i.gyazo.com/2afd5a1d713cd33782ba94eb4e2237ca.png

literally anybody in the lottery could luck out and land any pick between 1-4, though those odds are pretty tiny. i do find it bizarre that a team like minnesota can land picks 1-4 but absolutely cannot land 5-13

BacktoBasics

01-31-2023, 01:45 PM

This is incorrect. The odds are dynamic and multiple teams can move up or down throughout the process.

Okay. I was under the belief that after 1 it was by record.

Didn’t realize multiple spots were up from grab.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 02:13 PM

Okay. I was under the belief that after 1 it was by record.

Didn’t realize multiple spots were up from grab.

Yeah, regardless we are well positioned to be a bottom 4 team. Magic reached a turning point with the return of Isaac. They could easily be buyers at the deadline. Their wing/front line core is pretty intriguing with Wagner, Banchero, WCJ, Bol Bol, Isaac. No one else will catch us. I really like the play-in format as it is helping keep teams honest down the stretch.

Ariel

01-31-2023, 02:26 PM

Okay. I was under the belief that after 1 it was by record.

Didn’t realize multiple spots were up from grab.
Yup, spots 1-4 are randomly chosen depending on record (worst to best), and the rest (5-14) are strictly by position. Base odds:

https://i.postimg.cc/XNHPZz4s/draft-odds.png

The Truth #6

01-31-2023, 02:40 PM

Right now today if they're 4th or 5th I reach for Black.

3rd I'd take Amen.

Still early though.

Black feels like Derrick White to me for some reason. I like Black but wonder if he’ll have enough fire. To me we need a player to drive, kick, get to the rim etc. Amen seems to have special skills but man, that jumper…yikes. His form is horrible. Black isn’t a great shooter but better.

But hey, I would roll the dice with Amen under Pop and see what happens if we end up around 3 or 4, generally speaking. Not a super safe bet but we’ll see. Like you said, lots of time.

offset formation

01-31-2023, 03:43 PM

based on current standings:

https://i.gyazo.com/2afd5a1d713cd33782ba94eb4e2237ca.png

literally anybody in the lottery could luck out and land any pick between 1-4, though those odds are pretty tiny. i do find it bizarre that a team like minnesota can land picks 1-4 but absolutely cannot land 5-13

And I find it odd that our odds of drafting 7th are half that of drafting first. And that we have higher statistical odds of drafting 5th or 6th, than first. Seems the odds should guarantee a top 5 at worst for the teams in the bottom 5. I agree you should disincentivize tanking by distributing the odds, especially of the top 3 picks, but also not let teams that are abominable pick outside of the top 5 to maybe prevent annual seasons with the worst records. For nothing else for continued fan involvement in those teams.

System seems broken

exstatic

01-31-2023, 04:10 PM

And I find it odd that our odds of drafting 7th are half that of drafting first. And that we have higher statistical odds of drafting 5th or 6th, than first. Seems the odds should guarantee a top 5 at worst for the teams in the bottom 5. I agree you should disincentivize tanking by distributing the odds, especially of the top 3 picks, but also not let teams that are abominable pick outside of the top 5 to maybe prevent annual seasons with the worst records. For nothing else for continued fan involvement in those teams.

System seems broken

We could pick that low, but the reality is that the #1 overall pick with the flat odds has gone to positions 7, 3, 2, 2. The flattened odds mean that literally no one is tearing their team apart like Philly did over 5 seasons for those 25% odds that no longer exist. It’s not worth it. Even Detroit and Houston have accumulated young talent. Since the first year, 2019, only one team starting in the top 4 has dropped 3 spots. 2019 was kind of a bloodbath, though. 3 teams jumped WAY up, causing a cascade of 5 teams from inside and outside the top 4 to drop 3 spots each.

When you increase the odds of lower ranked teams to jump into the top 4, you also increase the odds of top 4 teams to drop. There is no perfect system, and this is better than what came before.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 04:18 PM

Ppl need to understand that with the result of each simulation the odds change.

Ariel

01-31-2023, 04:28 PM

You can't guarantee that the teams with the bottom 5 records take the top 5 spots, because that effectively means no team can pick 1-5 unless they finish bottom 5, which reduces the lottery to 5 teams and thus strongly encourages tanking. The current system seems to me like a good compromise between randomness (to disincentivize speculation) and fairness (to try to level the playing field). If there's one thing that I would try to do, is put a cap on the number of picks a team can get in a given time frame, to punish perennial tankers like Philly did or Houston is doing now. That could be easy to implement by simply awarding lottery balls up to a maximum per window (make it 3 years, for instance), which means no team can abuse the system. Other than that, I like it.

scott

01-31-2023, 04:33 PM

The new system makes a lot of sense, it just needs safeguards against perma-tankers like Houston and Detroit. Something like: you're third consecutive year as a bottom 3 team, you are excluded from the top 3 picks. A fourth straight year, you are excluded from the top 4 picks, etc.

One could argue it is overly punitive and doesn't allow teams to climb out of the bottom, but you should be able to make it work with 3-4 straight years of Top 5 picks.

scott

01-31-2023, 04:37 PM

Ppl need to understand that with the result of each simulation the odds change.

Yeah, one thing some people seem to confuse is that though the Lottery Results are revealed backwards, they take place from 1-4. When #1 is picked, the odds for the rest of the draft change dramatically, then #2 and so on. A team with the worst record who does not get the #1 pick then has that 14.0% redistributed amongst the remaining possibilities in some way I'm too lazy to do the math on right now. But that occurs 3 times before the 4th pick. I'm sure there is a paper on it somewhere.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 04:38 PM

The new system makes a lot of sense, it just needs safeguards against perma-tankers like Houston and Detroit. Something like: you're third consecutive year as a bottom 3 team, you are excluded from the top 3 picks. A fourth straight year, you are excluded from the top 4 picks, etc.

One could argue it is overly punitive and doesn't allow teams to climb out of the bottom, but you should be able to make it work with 3-4 straight years of Top 5 picks.

I really like this and truthfully we need 3 years in the lottery to build a decent core but at some point you can’t blame everyone else for the reasons you suck and the Spurs inability to attract decent free agents needs to be addressed.

exstatic

01-31-2023, 04:58 PM

I really like this and truthfully we need 3 years in the lottery to build a decent core but at some point you can’t blame everyone else for the reasons you suck and the Spurs inability to attract decent free agents needs to be addressed.

How do you address that?

KingKev

01-31-2023, 05:05 PM

How do you address that?

Tweak the culture. San Antonio is a 3rd rate US city but so is Cleveland, Utah, Detroit, Memphis maybe even Philly.

We don’t need to rebrand but obviously there is something not clicking.

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01-31-2023, 05:16 PM

We could pick that low, but the reality is that the #1 overall pick with the flat odds has gone to positions 7, 3, 2, 2. The flattened odds mean that literally no one is tearing their team apart like Philly did over 5 seasons for those 25% odds that no longer exist. It’s not worth it. Even Detroit and Houston have accumulated young talent. Since the first year, 2019, only one team starting in the top 4 has dropped 3 spots. 2019 was kind of a bloodbath, though. 3 teams jumped WAY up, causing a cascade of 5 teams from inside and outside the top 4 to drop 3 spots each.

When you increase the odds of lower ranked teams to jump into the top 4, you also increase the odds of top 4 teams to drop. There is no perfect system, and this is better than what came before.

Yes, which is why I'm saying there should be a statistical chance for the top 5 or so positions to get any of the top 5 spots, with equal weight for the top 3 so that no one team has any higher odds of those 3 thereby reducing tanking but still guaranteeing that the bad teams still get the best picks. There's zero business for a team drafting 7th that finishes bottom 3. Too often too much talent disparity between pick 1-3 and pick 5-7. Worst teams should be guaranteed a top 5 pick while not being guaranteed the overall top choice. Somebody smarter than me could work those mathematics out for draft balls.

JPB

01-31-2023, 05:16 PM

The new system makes a lot of sense, it just needs safeguards against perma-tankers like Houston and Detroit. Something like: you're third consecutive year as a bottom 3 team, you are excluded from the top 3 picks. A fourth straight year, you are excluded from the top 4 picks, etc.

One could argue it is overly punitive and doesn't allow teams to climb out of the bottom, but you should be able to make it work with 3-4 straight years of Top 5 picks.

Yeah, I personnally think there should be an algorythm taking into account any team's picks from last 3 years to determine its odds on the next draft.

TD 21

01-31-2023, 05:17 PM

Instead of looking at it like the current odds say 6th is the most likely current outcome by slot, I view it like there's a 67% chance of a top 5 pick.

Highest floor possible has always been the key this season, so that when the league screws them out of the big two, they at least have their pick of the litter.

Unfortunately, that would still probably mean (Amen) Thompson first, Black second given that they come off as "culture" fits and they're obsessed with big guards/wings who can't shoot and lack lead creator type skillsets.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 05:23 PM

Instead of looking at it like the current odds say 6th is the most likely current outcome by slot, I view it like there's a 67% chance of a top 5 pick.

Highest floor possible has always been the key this season, so that when the league screws them out of the big two, they at least have their pick of the litter.

Unfortunately, that would still probably mean (Amen) Thompson first, Black second given that they come off as "culture" fits and they're obsessed with big guards/wings who can't shoot and lack lead creator type skillsets.

We could get the top pick and you’d still be complaining it is merely reparations for the Kahwhi debacle.

Ariel

01-31-2023, 05:29 PM

Yes, which is why I'm saying there should be a statistical chance for the top 5 or so positions to get any of the top 5 spots, with equal weight for the top 3 so that no one team has any higher odds of those 3 thereby reducing tanking but still guaranteeing that the bad teams still get the best picks. There's zero business for a team drafting 7th that finishes bottom 3. Too often too much talent disparity between pick 1-3 and pick 5-7. Worst teams should be guaranteed a top 5 pick while not being guaranteed the overall top choice. Somebody smarter than me could work those mathematics out for draft balls.
Every bottom 5 team gets a top 5 pick => Every team with a record 6 or better gets a pick 6 or worse. That's equivalent to restricting the lottery to 5 teams instead of 14, i.e., a tankfest.

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01-31-2023, 05:35 PM

Tweak the culture. San Antonio is a 3rd rate US city but so is Cleveland, Utah, Detroit, Memphis maybe even Philly.

We don’t need to rebrand but obviously there is something not clicking.

Look there's stuff wrong in SA currently with our last few drafts (Samanic, Primo) but I don't think you can draw the conclusion you did about the City being the cause, per se. The ex-players love the City with many **choosing** to live there for their after-playing lifetimes. See David, Sean, Timmy, George Hill (who played more of his career elsewhere than in SA) and now even Manu. There are plenty of others. Sean talks about it all the time on the telecast that players like the city once they experience it. Hell, even the European players like it (Poeltl and Parker and Bobo all speak highly of it).

Now it's clearly no free agent destination but neither are pretty much 26 or 27 of the current NBA cities. What is happening currently is unavoidable and 99% 9f teams experience this much more frequently than we have. We just suck right now.

Only time will tell how long that is the case because like most other team's, our fortune rests squarely on our ability to draft. And to play better defense, lol.

offset formation

01-31-2023, 05:39 PM

Every bottom 5 team gets a top 5 pick => Every team with a record 6 or better gets a pick 6 or worse. That's equivalent to restricting the lottery to 5 teams instead of 14, i.e., a tankfest.

Yeah when you put it like that...lol. This is why I enjoy this board.

I think my plan could be tinkered with a bit but the odds are still to high for a bottom 3 team to vote 5th or later. Just my 2 cents...

KingKev

01-31-2023, 05:53 PM

Look there's stuff wrong in SA currently with our last few drafts (Samanic, Primo) but I don't think you can draw the conclusion you did about the City being the cause, per se. The ex-players love the City with many **choosing** to live there for their after-playing lifetimes. See David, Sean, Timmy, George Hill (who played more of his career elsewhere than in SA) and now even Manu. There are plenty of others. Sean talks about it all the time on the telecast that players like the city once they experience it. Hell, even the European players like it (Poeltl and Parker and Bobo all speak highly of it).

Now it's clearly no free agent destination but neither are pretty much 26 or 27 of the current NBA cities. What is happening currently is unavoidable and 99% 9f teams experience this much more frequently than we have. We just suck right now.

Only time will tell how long that is the case because like most other team's, our fortune rests squarely on our ability to draft. And to play better defense, lol.

Listen, I personally think San Antonio and most of Texas is pretty awesome. I’ve lived in 3 cities in my life; Glasgow, Scotland and Toronto/Vancouver, Canada. Young players who are making next level money see San Antonio as boring. Additionally, they have to deal with PATFO and their archaic ways so players that have opportunity elsewhere need a premium to be here.

A slight culture tweek could make more players want to be here. Especially when we are at the absolute bottom of the standings.

TD 21

01-31-2023, 06:12 PM

We could get the top pick and you’d still be complaining it is merely reparations for the Kahwhi debacle.

That's what it should/would be.

After that, I wouldn't think the deserve an ounce more lottery luck for the foreseeable future.

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01-31-2023, 06:14 PM

How is Glasgow? I've heard cool things.

exstatic

01-31-2023, 06:24 PM

Tweak the culture. San Antonio is a 3rd rate US city but so is Cleveland, Utah, Detroit, Memphis maybe even Philly.

We don’t need to rebrand but obviously there is something not clicking.

What great FAs ever signed in those cities?

KingKev

01-31-2023, 06:32 PM

How is Glasgow? I've heard cool things.

It has come a long way. Tons of gentrification. Less catholic/protestant BS. My parents grew up in council housing there; 20 minutes out of Glasgow city centre… since I’ve there (early 90s) that area has gone from having 3 locks on your door and bars on the windows to a thriving ancillary part of the city.

Weather is shit though. Makes Vancouver seem like Hawaii.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 06:35 PM

What great FAs ever signed in those cities?

The difference is ppl don’t mind being there. Versus wanting to get the fuck outta dodge.

offset formation

01-31-2023, 07:00 PM

It has come a long way. Tons of gentrification. Less catholic/protestant BS. My parents grew up in council housing there; 20 minutes out of Glasgow city centre… since I’ve there (early 90s) that area has gone from having 3 locks on your door and bars on the windows to a thriving ancillary part of the city.

Weather is shit though. Makes Vancouver seem like Hawaii.

Hmmm. I wouldn't have guessed about it being gentrified. Who is the gentrified population? Isn't the population heavily and historically white?

Or are you referencing the pure economics of gentrification? Here in the US, it's almost wrapped with racial undertones. I know parts of Europe have some places with religious gentrification too .

exstatic

01-31-2023, 07:14 PM

The difference is ppl don’t mind being there. Versus wanting to get the fuck outta dodge.

Other than mute cancer, who, of any consequence, wanted to get the fuck out of dodge? I’ll save you the trouble of saying Stephen Jackson, since he isn’t of any consequence.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 07:30 PM

Hmmm. I wouldn't have guessed about it being gentrified. Who is the gentrified population? Isn't the population heavily and historically white?

Or are you referencing the pure economics of gentrification? Here in the US, it's almost wrapped with racial undertones. I know parts of Europe have some places with religious gentrification too .

Pure economics. There are few black ppl in Scotland but I don’t use the term gentrification with racial undertones just saying it went from an area that was quite rough to a place where your pillar of Christianity did not matter (even worse Indians and Asians were treated terribly despite being hard working entrepreneurs) and the younger generation don’t care for all the bullshit… they just want to live peacefully and they work hard.

More sense of community and safety now.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 07:35 PM

Other than mute cancer, who, of any consequence, wanted to get the fuck out of dodge? I’ll save you the trouble of saying Stephen Jackson, since he isn’t of any consequence.

Just because not every player gets on social media and voices their disdain like DJ and Stack have you can’t tell me there isn’t a certain undertone to what it means to play in San Antonio.

exstatic

01-31-2023, 07:55 PM

Just because not every player gets on social media and voices their disdain like DJ and Stack have you can’t tell me there isn’t a certain undertone to what it means to play in San Antonio.

So, they’re discontented, but they stay. Sound like pretty much any employee.

scott

01-31-2023, 08:05 PM

Listen, I personally think San Antonio and most of Texas is pretty awesome. I’ve lived in 3 cities in my life; Glasgow, Scotland and Toronto/Vancouver, Canada. Young players who are making next level money see San Antonio as boring. Additionally, they have to deal with PATFO and their archaic ways so players that have opportunity elsewhere need a premium to be here.

A slight culture tweek could make more players want to be here. Especially when we are at the absolute bottom of the standings.

I think this is an area where the Spurs could maybe learn something from UTSA Football. That program has done a good job attracting talented youth from a diverse range of places, from the country to the inner city. Granted, recruiting for collect is much different than attracting professional athletes, but maybe there is something to learn.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 08:10 PM

So, they’re discontented, but they stay. Sound like pretty much any employee.

Except the good players aren’t just employees anymore.

Mr. Body

01-31-2023, 08:18 PM

Pure economics. There are few black ppl in Scotland but I don’t use the term gentrification with racial undertones just saying it went from an area that was quite rough to a place where your pillar of Catholicism did not matter (even worse Indians and Asians were treated terribly despite being hard working entrepreneurs) and the younger generation don’t care for all the bullshit… they just want to live peacefully and they work hard.

More sense of community and safety now.

I lived in Glasgow for two years a decade ago. My wife is black and no one really batted an eye, other than her being more upscale maybe. Most black people you see might be refugees. Glasgow is a keen refugee city. We thought we might get flack for being interracial but no one gave a shit, unlike parts to the US.

What they DID give a shit about was your religion. Usually this was sussed out by asking what football team you followed. The two big Scottish teams are in Glasgow and one is heavily Catholic, one heavily Protestant. The joke was to say you followed Partick Thistle, which is neither (and sucks).

But really once they hear an American accent they love you. They love Americans, at least in my experience, in part unlike London they don't get many. I did have some neds, their term for kinda hooligans, come to to me wanting to start something to try my out, but as soon as they realized I was American they melted.

Anyway, it's a city with a troubled history but like said it's changed a lot.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 08:32 PM

I lived in Glasgow for two years a decade ago. My wife is black and no one really batted an eye, other than her being more upscale maybe. Most black people you see might be refugees. Glasgow is a keen refugee city. We thought we might get flack for being interracial but no one gave a shit, unlike parts to the US.

What they DID give a shit about was your religion. Usually this was sussed out by asking what football team you followed. The two big Scottish teams are in Glasgow and one is heavily Catholic, one heavily Protestant. The joke was to say you followed Partick Thistle, which is neither (and sucks).

But really once they hear an American accent they love you. They love Americans, at least in my experience, in part unlike London they don't get many. I did have some neds, their term for kinda hooligans, come to to me wanting to start something to try my out, but as soon as they realized I was American they melted.

Anyway, it's a city with a troubled history but like said it's changed a lot.

The older generation is low key racist but more in their words than actions. Unfortunately in the rougher areas going for Chinese is still called a chinky and the convenience store if brown owned is called the pakis. This Christmas I went for a fade in a very rough part of town across from Ibrox (where Rangers play) after a day of shopping. He was a black english barber. I had bought my nephew some shit from the Celtic store earlier that day and had a Celtic shopping bag. Barber wouldn’t cut me for 100 quid. There was no amount of money for him to associate with me. Pure ignorance.

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01-31-2023, 08:53 PM

I lived in Glasgow for two years a decade ago. My wife is black and no one really batted an eye, other than her being more upscale maybe. Most black people you see might be refugees. Glasgow is a keen refugee city. We thought we might get flack for being interracial but no one gave a shit, unlike parts to the US.

What they DID give a shit about was your religion. Usually this was sussed out by asking what football team you followed. The two big Scottish teams are in Glasgow and one is heavily Catholic, one heavily Protestant. The joke was to say you followed Partick Thistle, which is neither (and sucks).

But really once they hear an American accent they love you. They love Americans, at least in my experience, in part unlike London they don't get many. I did have some neds, their term for kinda hooligans, come to to me wanting to start something to try my out, but as soon as they realized I was American they melted.

Anyway, it's a city with a troubled history but like said it's changed a lot.

Cool. Good insight.

Mr. Body

01-31-2023, 09:43 PM

The older generation is low key racist but more in their words than actions. Unfortunately in the rougher areas going for Chinese is still called a chinky and the convenience store if brown owned is called the pakis. This Christmas I went for a fade in a very rough part of town across from Ibrox (where Rangers play) after a day of shopping. He was a black english barber. I had bought my nephew some shit from the Celtic store earlier that day and had a Celtic shopping bag. Barber wouldn’t cut me for 100 quid. There was no amount of money for him to associate with me. Pure ignorance.

Wait... You essentially came into the Crip neighborhood wearing Blood gear and there's a guy not wanting to cut your hair because of what people might do to him and you think he's weird?

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01-31-2023, 10:04 PM

Just imagining a scenario where Lakers finish with the 7th worst record and lose it to New Orlean in their pick swap.

I'd be both giddy as fuck about the obscene turn of events for the Lakers and horrified at how good the Pels could be with Wemby and Zion. Lakers are currently in 7th. And only 5 years ago a 7th seed got that pick.

KingKev

01-31-2023, 10:05 PM

Wait... You essentially came into the Crip neighborhood wearing Blood gear and there's a guy not wanting to cut your hair because of what people might do to him and you think he's weird?

haha I was raised not to wear colours when I lived there but most areas just outside of city center don’t care about that stuff anymore so I was caught off guard.

That being said the barber who wouldn't line me up was like 5’5, 140 lbs. I wasn't worried.

mo7888

02-01-2023, 10:43 AM

Been stuck inside with this winter storm the past 3 days and I've been catching up on highlight videos. Gradey Dick has moved up considerably on my board...I really like what I'm seeing there. I'll be very curious to see his athletic testing numbers in a few months.

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02-01-2023, 10:51 PM

Been stuck inside with this winter storm the past 3 days and I've been catching up on highlight videos. Gradey Dick has moved up considerably on my board...I really like what I'm seeing there. I'll be very curious to see his athletic testing numbers in a few months.

Yeah, he looks good. Appreciate the reference.

thiste

02-03-2023, 02:07 AM

Look there's stuff wrong in SA currently with our last few drafts (Samanic, Primo) but I don't think you can draw the conclusion you did about the City being the cause, per se. The ex-players love the City with many **choosing** to live there for their after-playing lifetimes. See David, Sean, Timmy, George Hill (who played more of his career elsewhere than in SA) and now even Manu. There are plenty of others. Sean talks about it all the time on the telecast that players like the city once they experience it. Hell, even the European players like it (Poeltl and Parker and Bobo all speak highly of it).
In a recent interview Parker said that he shares his life between living in France & San Antonio, and regularly plays poker with Timmy and tennis with Manu. So yeah, for sure he likes SA.

Dejounte

02-04-2023, 10:45 AM

https://youtu.be/_Bq7hMSC7pw

Love these offensively skilled guys. A bit redundant with Malaki, but you keep trying until one of them works out (not that we have seen Malaki’s ceiling yet, nowhere close).

Ariel

02-04-2023, 02:22 PM

He's bigger, stronger than Malaki, and he's got more range. An interesting prospect, but not for our projected range. However, as of now if we don't land a top 4 pick, I might be willing to trade down (say with Orlando, if the Chicago pick conveys to them) and pick up a couple of guys, like him and Gradey Dick, and maybe someone else. The more I think about it, the more I worry about the Thompson's twins complete lack of a jump shot and lack of competition at a high level I'd be fine take one of them if we trade back, though.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 02:28 PM

BTW, Brian Wright had connections in Ohio State, so given his profile and where he comes from, I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up being a target of ours (hopefully not with the highest pick though).

mo7888

02-04-2023, 02:47 PM

He's bigger, stronger than Malaki, and he's got more range. An interesting prospect, but not for our projected range. However, as of now if we don't land a top 4 pick, I might be willing to trade down (say with Orlando, if the Chicago pick conveys to them) and pick up a couple of guys, like him and Gradey Dick, and maybe someone else. The more I think about it, the more I worry about the Thompson's twins complete lack of a jump shot and lack of competition at a high level I'd be fine take one of them if we trade back, though.

I don't know id trading back is feasible but, if we're outside the top 2 I'd be willing to drop back if we could turn it into two top 10 picks.

John B

02-04-2023, 03:26 PM

I don't know id trading back is feasible but, if we're outside the top 2 I'd be willing to drop back if we could turn it into two top 10 picks.

I’d be very disappointed if Spurs trade down. I trust Pop’s coaching staff to develop a 7th pick (if Spurs were to fall) to an AS caliber goto player instead of two late lottery role players.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 03:49 PM

I’d be very disappointed if Spurs trade down. I trust Pop’s coaching staff to develop a 7th pick (if Spurs were to fall) to an AS caliber goto player instead of two late lottery role players.
Numbers in a vacuum mean nothing, 7th pick can be good or bad depending on the year. As I see it, this year it goes something like this:
If top 2, keep it (Wemby, then Scoot)
If 3/4, try to trade up. I assume no. 1 is off limits, but there's a chance no. 2 may be available if a team like Detroit (Cunningham, Ivey, Hayes) or Charlotte (Lamelo) lands no. 2. Offering no. 3/4 + Keldon Johnson would be the way I'd go. But if we can't trade up, keep it and use it on Brandon Miller or Cam Whitmore.
If no. 5 or lower, the value flattens. The Thompson brothers can't shoot and are unproven at a high level of competition, Nick Smith underwhelmed and seems fragile (already injured his knee), Keyonte George is undersized and a bit of a chucker. So if possible I'd rather trade back a bit (Orlando may have 2 lottery picks, their own + Chicago if not top 4) and maybe snatch one of them plus someone else, diversifying risk.
The way I see it, not landing a top 4 pick would be disappointing, but more so would be not reading the board and letting go of whatever opportunities it comes with either to trade up or down (Dallas has done that masterfully with Dirk and Luka).

mo7888

02-04-2023, 03:53 PM

I’d be very disappointed if Spurs trade down. I trust Pop’s coaching staff to develop a 7th pick (if Spurs were to fall) to an AS caliber goto player instead of two late lottery role players.

And you don't think they could develop two top 10 picks instead of just one?

mo7888

02-04-2023, 03:57 PM

Numbers in a vacuum mean nothing, 7th pick can be good or bad depending on the year. As I see it, this year it goes something like this:
If top 2, keep it (Wemby, then Scoot)
If 3/4, try to trade up. I assume no. 1 is off limits, but there's a chance no. 2 may be available if a team like Detroit (Cunningham, Ivey, Hayes) or Charlotte (Lamelo) lands no. 2. Offering no. 3/4 + Keldon Johnson would be the way I'd go. But if we can't trade up, keep it and use it on Brandon Miller or Cam Whitmore.
If no. 5 or lower, the value flattens. The Thompson brothers can't shoot and are unproven at a high level of competition, Nick Smith underwhelmed and seems fragile (already injured his knee), Keyonte George is undersized and a bit of a chucker. So if possible I'd rather trade back a bit (Orlando may have 2 lottery picks, their own + Chicago if not top 4) and maybe snatch one of them plus someone else, diversifying risk.
The way I see it, not landing a top 4 pick would be disappointing, but more so would be not reading the board and letting go of whatever opportunities it comes with either to trade up or down (Dallas has done that masterfully with Dirk and Luka).

I'm pretty close to that but see it a little different...after #2 I've got picks 3-7 in the same tier. If I could turn #3 into say the 6th and 9th picks I'd do it because I see almost no difference between 3 and 6 and I could add a Gradey Dick with the 9th pick....

Tier 1
1. Victor Wembanyama
Tier 2
2. Scoot Henderson
Tier 3
3. Nick Smith Jr
4. Cam Whitmore
5. Amen Thompson
6. Ausar Thompson
7. Brandon Miller

JPB

02-04-2023, 04:19 PM

I'm pretty close to that but see it a little different...after #2 I've got picks 3-7 in the same tier. If I could turn #3 into say the 6th and 9th picks I'd do it because I see almost no difference between 3 and 6 and I could add a Gradey Dick with the 9th pick....

Tier 1
1. Victor Wembanyama
Tier 2
2. Scoot Henderson
Tier 3
3. Nick Smith Jr
4. Cam Whitmore
5. Amen Thompson
6. Ausar Thompson
7. Brandon Miller

If I may, if YOU don't see almost any difference between 3 and 6, you'll admit, if true, that NBA teams wouldn't either, and then wouldn't trade 6 or 9 + players or whatever to trade up.

Cos you can't always count on other GMs ignorance.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 04:28 PM

If I may, if YOU don't see almost any difference between 3 and 6, you'll admit, if true, that NBA teams wouldn't either, and then wouldn't trade 6 or 9 + players or whatever to trade up.

Cos you can't always count on other GMs ignorance.
Other GMs may see a difference where you don't, every year's draft shows you an example of this. No 2 boards are alike, so you have to be ready and be active in search of whatever opportunity may arise. In fact every transaction involves 2 parties trying to acquire something that the other is willing to give up. For instance, in '18 Atlanta decided an extra lottery pick was worth trading back from 3 (Doncic) to 5 (Trae Young). Teams are different, GM preferences are different, circumstances are different.

mo7888

02-04-2023, 04:30 PM

If I may, if YOU don't see almost any difference between 3 and 6, you'll admit, if true, that NBA teams wouldn't either, and then wouldn't trade 6 or 9 + players or whatever to trade up.

Cos you can't always count on other GMs ignorance.

I never said that trade would be there.... but other GM's have their own tier system and it may be different or it may be that a team decides to prioritize fit over tier.... for example, Orlando could conceivably end up with 6 and 9 (from the Chicago pick) and we could end up 3rd... they might prioritize one of the Thompson twins or Smith Jr and decide that, that player is worth more than 6 + 9 to them... if they did then I'd pull the trigger on that trade... fit matters more to them than it does to us.

exstatic

02-04-2023, 04:32 PM

He's bigger, stronger than Malaki, and he's got more range. An interesting prospect, but not for our projected range. However, as of now if we don't land a top 4 pick, I might be willing to trade down (say with Orlando, if the Chicago pick conveys to them) and pick up a couple of guys, like him and Gradey Dick, and maybe someone else. The more I think about it, the more I worry about the Thompson's twins complete lack of a jump shot and lack of competition at a high level I'd be fine take one of them if we trade back, though.

Dean on Draft had nothing good to say about the Thompsons in his rather thorough analysis, and pointed out that at 20, they did poorly against the same comp that 15 YO Cam Boozer fucking destroyed. Not a good look.

exstatic

02-04-2023, 04:34 PM

If I may, if YOU don't see almost any difference between 3 and 6, you'll admit, if true, that NBA teams wouldn't either, and then wouldn't trade 6 or 9 + players or whatever to trade up.

Cos you can't always count on other GMs ignorance.

Sure you can. Most teams lock in on a player they want, and will pay to move up for him.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 04:35 PM

Dean on Draft had nothing good to say about the Thompsons in his rather thorough analysis, and pointed out that at 20, they did poorly against the same comp that 15 YO Cam Boozer fucking destroyed. Not a good look.
Precisely why I'm worried. The do have some tantalizing raw qualities, but there's too much risk involved for the product of one tanking season to hinge on their fate. A second, lower pick may be worth it, though.

exstatic

02-04-2023, 04:39 PM

I’d be very disappointed if Spurs trade down. I trust Pop’s coaching staff to develop a 7th pick (if Spurs were to fall) to an AS caliber goto player instead of two late lottery role players.

I don’t think they would trade down from 7. I can legit see it anywhere from 2-5.

exstatic

02-04-2023, 04:42 PM

Precisely why I'm worried. The do have some tantalizing raw qualities, but there's too much risk involved for the product of one tanking season to hinge on their fate. A second, lower pick may be worth it, though.

He had more to say, mostly that guys who play crap competition, or sit out, like Thompsons, Sharpe and Wiseman have a high bust probability.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 04:45 PM

Dean on Draft had nothing good to say about the Thompsons in his rather thorough analysis, and pointed out that at 20, they did poorly against the same comp that 15 YO Cam Boozer fucking destroyed. Not a good look.

Classic takedown, destroying them. They're terrible in the half court set against essentially high school competition. They are short armed, not terribly skilled, and wasting an entire year on a shitty nothing league. They're not even as promising as Shaeden Sharpe was and Sharpe should never have been a top ten pick.

Now, this draft is so poor that they'll go in that ten range.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 04:51 PM

Brandon Miller is probably my number three. He's really old for a freshman, will be twenty and a half at the time of the draft, but I can discount that, and did last year with a guy like Keegan Murray.

My thing with Miller is that he's really similar to AJ Griffin, who was drafted at the end of the lottery. But he is playing well in Atlanta. I just don't know about spending third pick money on late lottery production. Like Jabari Smith I see an expensive role player. Definitely don't see a star in Brandon Miller.

But there is only one star, possibly two, in this draft. Right now I'm still trading out or down if I don't get Wembs.

noob cake

02-04-2023, 04:54 PM

Objectively speaking Deanondraft has been the most accurate draft analyst over past 5 years bar none. He doesn't write these takes to make money with his blogs or twitter posts. He is a professional NBA sport better and called out countless media appointed superstars. Fairly level headed counting stats focused scouting.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 04:56 PM

He had more to say, mostly that guys who play crap competition, or sit out, like Thompsons, Sharpe and Wiseman have a high bust probability.
I agree, I'm not one to go for that kind. Reminds me too much of Krause's Bulls of the early 200s, that would draft Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler, and pass on LaMarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas. Or how the Hawks passed on Chris Paul for Marvin Williams. It's the appeal of the high stakes gamble that many people are drawn to, and very rarely pays.
But say we had a second pick in the lower part of the lottery. I'd be willing to work him out with a few or our youngsters, and see what they're about. If they do well, then taking a flyer on them with a lower pick would not be so terrible, provided there's not obviously better prospect available.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 04:57 PM

Objectively speaking Deanondraft has been the most accurate draft analyst over past 5 years bar none. He doesn't write these takes to make money with his blogs or twitter posts. He is a professional NBA sport better and called out countless media appointed superstars. Fairly level headed counting stats focused scouting.

I think he's the guy who sold me on Sengun. He was hollering about Sengun.

KingKev

02-04-2023, 04:57 PM

How can anyone NOT be skeptical of OTE? They have no track record and year over year I don’t think the talent got THAT much better.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 05:02 PM

He had more to say, mostly that guys who play crap competition, or sit out, like Thompsons, Sharpe and Wiseman have a high bust probability.

Not even probability. All these guys have busted so far. Kuminga is showing issues, Jalen Green is a detriment to his team, Jalen Hardy wasn't picked until the second round, everyone passed on him for a reason and it looks like they were right.

Time will tell, but initially I didn't like players who wouldn't take stock of themselves against actual competition. Turns out the bigger hazard isn't their attitude, necessarily, but that they just outright waste some of the most important months of development they can get. In the NBA they don't get those practices, there's no time to teach the fundamentals. They're way behind.

JPB

02-04-2023, 05:34 PM

Other GMs may see a difference where you don't, every year's draft shows you an example of this. No 2 boards are alike, so you have to be ready and be active in search of whatever opportunity may arise. In fact every transaction involves 2 parties trying to acquire something that the other is willing to give up. For instance, in '18 Atlanta decided an extra lottery pick was worth trading back from 3 (Doncic) to 5 (Trae Young). Teams are different, GM preferences are different, circumstances are different.

I never said that trade would be there.... but other GM's have their own tier system and it may be different or it may be that a team decides to prioritize fit over tier.... for example, Orlando could conceivably end up with 6 and 9 (from the Chicago pick) and we could end up 3rd... they might prioritize one of the Thompson twins or Smith Jr and decide that, that player is worth more than 6 + 9 to them... if they did then I'd pull the trigger on that trade... fit matters more to them than it does to us.

I get both of your guys point of view, but I disagree that GMs have that much of a different perception about like the first 4-5 or even down to first 8 picks or so... They may slightly disagree about the order of these gus but rarely about the guys themselves.

Late mock drafts always end up pretty much on point. People thought Sochan could be our man with the 9th pick and he did.. As a matter of fact, I remember some people here having the exact same perspective as you guys, last draft, and wanting to trade down for CHA 13 & 15 because they were seeing not that much of a difference from 9 to 13 or 15... then get two good players instead of one.

Would you trade Sochan now for last draft 13 & 15...? 2 good players don't equal one great player. You can find good players around, it's harder to find real difference makers. Mock drafts are gonna get refined and players are gonna emerge ahead of the pack as clear top 4-5...

That's the reason why I don't first think you SHOUD trade down 2 or 3 for 6+9, way too risky and you might regret it. Just pick you horse and live with it, and I also don't believe other teams would perceive top 8-9 players differently than anyone would..

After that zone, that's a different story.

mo7888

02-04-2023, 05:43 PM

I get both of your points of view guys, but I disagree that GMs have that much of a different perception about like the first 4-5 or even down to first 8 picks or so... They may slightly disagree about the order of these gus but rarely about the guys themselves.

Late mock drafts always end up pretty much on point. People thought Sochan could be our man with the 9th pick and he did.. As a matter of fact, I remember some people here having the exact same perspective as you guys, last draft, and wanting to trade down for CHA 13 & 15 because they were seeing not that much of a difference from 9 to 13 or 15... then get two good players instead of one.

Would you trade Sochan now for last draft 13 & 15...? 2 good players don't equal one great player. You can find good players around, it's harder to find real difference makers. Mock drafts are gonna get refined and players are gonna emerge ahead of the pack as clear top 4-5...

That's the reason why I don't first think you SHOUD trade down 2 or 3 for 6+9, way too risky and you lmght regret it. Just pick you horse and live with it, and I also do'nt believe other teams would perceive top 8-9 players differently than anyone would..

After that zone, that's a different story.

To answer the Sochan question- no I wouldn't, but I'd also point out that it's not apples to apples to ask that question now after we've seen them play in the league and had the chance to evaluate them.

Also, you don't think we should trade down from #3 AND you don't think anyone would trade up to #3 because everyone has the same evaluation for the top 8-9? That's kind of mutually exclusive 'logic' isn't it?

Ariel

02-04-2023, 05:46 PM

You don't have to go very far to find a counterexample to your point. Last year, Ivey was a consensus no. 4 pick. Yet, Sacramento chose to take Keegan Murray instead, who probably no other team would have taken at that spot. Until about an hour from the draft, the world's most trusted NBA insider (Woj) was claiming that Orlando would take Jabari Smith Jr no. 1, and not Banchero who ended up being their choice.
Another interesting example comes from the 2017 draft. Boston had the no. 1 pick, and Markelle Fultz was supposed to be their target. Since Philadelphia was desperate to get Fultz, they traded up to no. 1 to land him, and Boston took Jason Tatum with no. 3. Years later, it was revealed that Ainge planned to take Tatum all along even if he had kept no. 1, but knowing Philadelphia's urge he used it to his advantage and managed to get an extra asset from them on top of the player he would have gotten anyways.
So the point is, unanimous consensus is extremely rare, and more often than not you'll find someone with a different perspective on things than yours.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 05:59 PM

GMs are much more influenced by outside opinions than some think. Consensus among top picks is much more manufactured than we think.

Last year, Jabari Smith was 'decided' as a top one it two ouch in every NCAA broadcast since early in the season. By the time the draft rolled around, this was such conventional wisdom that there was no way he'd drop (barring) the incredibly unusual, despite the appearance to many that he wasn't more than a two dimensional player.

Mock drafts become a repetitive circle jerk. The pundits at ESPN have no idea what they're talking about... But mostly what happens is that everyone is protecting their phony baloney jobs. If a GM takes a risk and takes Franz Wagner over Jonathan Kuminga, he's instantly on the hot seat. GMs answer to their owners and they both, in a certain sense, answer to the fans, who are reacting to the same media generated circle jerk bullshit that's been circulated as the truth for a while.

This is why braver FOs should trade down more often, but it rarely happens because fans mutiny.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 06:19 PM

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 06:34 PM

I wonder if anyone has mock drafts this time last year. Conference play is really heating up and the tournament looms. This time last year I think we had players on the radar but it wasn't until ur NCAAT that players started rising. Guys like Mathurin and Sochan. I suspect we'll see some movement.

Just watched the end of IU-Purdue. Zach Edey is a monster. I expect he could get lottery interest despite this era. Kessler having success will help him, and Mark Williams showing success now.

Trayce Jackson-Davis is still my guy. He's a late first pick. Never developed that J and is really old coming out, but he's comparable to Brandon Clarke. Superior around the room, tremendous help side shot blocker, mobile.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 06:37 PM

heyheymymy

02-04-2023, 07:13 PM

seriously 8, 9, and 10 look better than 5, 6, and 7 (and really 2, 3, and 4 even?) shit take but damn.

I don't know but 2-7 feels like a dead zone though I do like Brandon Miller just not so high. Give me Wemby with #1 or give me 8-10 with a trade back. I will say Spurs could turn Brandon Miller into something nasty.

heyheymymy

02-04-2023, 07:14 PM

oh well it'll shuffle up and down a million times even before the tourney

JPB

02-04-2023, 07:48 PM

You don't have to go very far to find a counterexample to your point. Last year, Ivey was a consensus no. 4 pick. Yet, Sacramento chose to take Keegan Murray instead, who probably no other team would have taken at that spot. Until about an hour from the draft, the world's most trusted NBA insider (Woj) was claiming that Orlando would take Jabari Smith Jr no. 1, and not Banchero who ended up being their choice.
Another interesting example comes from the 2017 draft. Boston had the no. 1 pick, and Markelle Fultz was supposed to be their target. Since Philadelphia was desperate to get Fultz, they traded up to no. 1 to land him, and Boston took Jason Tatum with no. 3. Years later, it was revealed that Ainge planned to take Tatum all along even if he had kept no. 1, but knowing Philadelphia's urge he used it to his advantage and managed to get an extra asset from them on top of the player he would have gotten anyways.
So the point is, unanimous consensus is extremely rare, and more often than not you'll find someone with a different perspective on things than yours.

Thats' why I said "slightly" different... There's no players ultimately pictured at 3 who ended up at 9 in the drafts you mention. And why I wouldn't trade 3 for 6 and 9 and many teams, if any, would. You don't wanna be THAT team who missed THAT guy.

JPB

02-04-2023, 07:56 PM

GMs are much more influenced by outside opinions than some think. Consensus among top picks is much more manufactured than we think.

Last year, Jabari Smith was 'decided' as a top one it two ouch in every NCAA broadcast since early in the season. By the time the draft rolled around, this was such conventional wisdom that there was no way he'd drop (barring) the incredibly unusual, despite the appearance to many that he wasn't more than a two dimensional player.

Mock drafts become a repetitive circle jerk. The pundits at ESPN have no idea what they're talking about... But mostly what happens is that everyone is protecting their phony baloney jobs. If a GM takes a risk and takes Franz Wagner over Jonathan Kuminga, he's instantly on the hot seat. GMs answer to their owners and they both, in a certain sense, answer to the fans, who are reacting to the same media generated circle jerk bullshit that's been circulated as the truth for a while.

This is why braver FOs should trade down more often, but it rarely happens because fans mutiny.

I don't know, but could be interesting to check the last 5 or 10 drafts and see if trading 3 for 6 and 9 was worth it. And to see by next draft if it still is...

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 08:00 PM

I don't know, but could be interesting to check the last 5 or 10 drafts and see if trading 3 for 6 and 9 was worth it. And to see by next draft if it still is...

I don't think that would really tell the story, because it depends on what those individual teams would take. A bad franchise is almost always going to pick a bad player or ruin a good prospect.

I'll stand by trading Scoot away if we get #2 unless things change. Trading down some spots and getting future draft capital. A later draft will likely be better than this one.

Also, keep in mind how higher draft picks get to be pretty expensive.

JPB

02-04-2023, 08:06 PM

To answer the Sochan question- no I wouldn't, but I'd also point out that it's not apples to apples to ask that question now after we've seen them play in the league and had the chance to evaluate them.

Also, you don't think we should trade down from #3 AND you don't think anyone would trade up to #3 because everyone has the same evaluation for the top 8-9? That's kind of mutually exclusive 'logic' isn't it?

Maybe I wasn't clear (seems it is :)), but I didn't say these teams wouldn't try to trade up, and they actually probably would because, as I precisely said and which was my point, they have the same players evaluation.

And about Sochan... you're right, you can't never really know, but as I also said, pick your horse, trust your scouting and live with it (there's always a part of chance as well) because it can be a hit and you didn't want to miss that guy...

Would have the spurs traded down, we'd all be furious about it now, but probably less than if sochan wasn't that good...

JPB

02-04-2023, 08:12 PM

I don't think that would really tell the story, because it depends on what those individual teams would take. A bad franchise is almost always going to pick a bad player or ruin a good prospect.

I'll stand by trading Scoot away if we get #2 unless things change. Trading down some spots and getting future draft capital. A later draft will likely be better than this one.

Also, keep in mind how higher draft picks get to be pretty expensive.

That's where we'll really disagree. You know what you can get, you don't what you may in the future... I take Scoot if he's there, spcially if you consider how desperate spurs are for talent, scoring and a PG.

We'll have to let a few months pass, and see if Scoot is still the potential superstar he's projected to be, but if he is... Nah, you can't pass.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 08:26 PM

That's where we'll really disagree. You know what you can get, you don't what you may in the future... I take Scoot if he's there, spcially if you consider how desperate spurs are for talent, scoring and a PG.

We'll have to let a few months pass, and see if Scoot is still the potential superstar he's projected to be, but if he is... Nah, you can't pass.

Oh no, I definitely wouldn't take Henderson if I'm the Spurs. Are you kidding? What a waste of a high pick like that.

Dejounte

02-04-2023, 08:53 PM

Was skeptical at first about Scoot. And I’m the guy who goes against the consensus when there are valid reasons. Scoot’s got my seal of approval. He’s not a generational prospect by any means. But he looks closer to what a franchise is looking for when you’re picking that high than most of the guys in the lottery.

Ariel

02-04-2023, 08:58 PM

Thats' why I said "slightly" different... There's no players ultimately pictured at 3 who ended up at 9 in the drafts you mention. And why I wouldn't trade 3 for 6 and 9 and many teams, if any, would. You don't wanna be THAT team who missed THAT guy.
But your argument is completely fallacious, because you'd be taking someone else's players, which will in all likelihood won't be those you'd take. Furthermore, you may end up still taking your OWN target with the lower pick, because the other party may be gunning for someone else, as illustrated by the swap between no. 6 (Robert "Tractor" Traylor) for no. 9 (Dirk Nowitzi) in the 1998 NBA draft, or no. 1 (Markelle Fultz) for no. 3 (Jason Tatum) in the 2017 NBA draft, where Dallas and Boston respectively traded down AND STILL LANDED THEIR TARGET. It's a bet, sure, but it doesn't mean it's completely blind, you can do your own assessments on the chances that your target is gone and, even if it is, who it is you're likely to take in that case, making an informed and smart decision. And, as always, we're dealing with probabilities so my point is that, if they check out, then you shouldn't be afraid to depart from your conviction just because consensus says otherwise.
In this case, no one is saying to trade back blindly, leaving a perceived much better player for 2 lesser ones, on count of quantity. What we're saying is, if after a thorough evaluation of the class, you come to the conclusion that (to you) there is not much difference between a pool of players, it's a better strategy to trade down and get more chances at an even pool of talent, than it is to stand pat on sheer fear of making a mistake. That's the wrong strategy 100 times out of 100. Now if you're convinced you're taking the better player, sure, keep the pick and take your guy. But that's not what we're arguing here, at least not me.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 09:05 PM

If you like Eric Bledsoe and Kemba Walker, you'll love Scoot Henderson. Adding the possibility of being a prima donna, maybe Steve Francis.

Dejounte

02-04-2023, 09:07 PM

Scoot looks like CP3 on steroids (by that I mean more athletic, and not necessarily a better version). Sounds like it contradicts what I said about him not being a generational prospect since CP3 is soon to be an NBA legend, but generational to me would be NBA landscape-changing players. Curry, MJ, Timmy, LeBron…. The thing with building around non-generational (usually average sized) point guards though is they need a stronger supporting cast than say if you were building around wings or bigs. So if the Spurs land Scoot, they need to pair him quickly with other stars or he ends up like winless guys like Lillard, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd (before pairing with Dirk), the list goes on.

The Truth #6

02-04-2023, 09:27 PM

Saw some people referring to Dean on Draft. Interestingly, on his website he has Scoot as the better prospect than Victor, and sees Victor as another Prozingis.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 09:29 PM

Scoot looks like CP3 on steroids (by that I mean more athletic, and not necessarily a better version). Sounds like it contradicts what I said about him not being a generational prospect since CP3 is soon to be an NBA legend, but generational to me would be NBA landscape-changing players. Curry, MJ, Timmy, LeBron…. The thing with building around non-generational (usually average sized) point guards though is they need a stronger supporting cast than say if you were building around wings or bigs. So if the Spurs land Scoot, they need to pair him quickly with other stars or he ends up like winless guys like Lillard, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd (before pairing with Dirk), the list goes on.

This is seriously delusional.

Dejounte

02-04-2023, 09:32 PM

This is seriously delusional.

Dude, leave me alone. This is your typical tirade whenever you feel strongly about something.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 09:35 PM

Saw some people referring to Dean on Draft. Interestingly, on his website he has Scoot as the better prospect than Victor, and sees Victor as another Prozingis.

He's jizzing himself over GLeague stats, including Asst:TO in a lunch pail league, then has the guys to compare his stat block to Derrick Rose, who... was not in the GLeague.

Just loopy.

Undersized shooting guards who depend on speed and strength, who shoot a lot and aren't good shooters... Everyone's overrating him because everyone in this class was overrated and they haven't adjusted. They also haven't learned their goddamn lesson with Ignite.

Mr. Body

02-04-2023, 09:38 PM

Dude, leave me alone. This is your typical tirade whenever you feel strongly about something.

You just compared him to Chris Paul. That's astounding.

exstatic

02-04-2023, 10:10 PM

Saw some people referring to Dean on Draft. Interestingly, on his website he has Scoot as the better prospect than Victor, and sees Victor as another Prozingis.

That was in July, pre Ignite games, pre this season. On Twitter recently, he seemed to walk that back.

2026 Draft is going to be crazy

Cam Boozer > Wemby
Cooper Flagg > Scoot
Jayden Quaintance > Thompsons

And rest of class is probably better too bc 2023 is fairly thin on NCAA talent.

BTW, he seems to have cooled on Scoot in the intervening months.

JPB

02-04-2023, 10:19 PM

Lebron, Giannis, Durant, Curry... marveled at the kid but Wemby is just another Porzingis. These guys don't even watch BB.

exstatic

02-04-2023, 10:28 PM

Lebron, Giannis, Durant, Curry... marveled at the kid but Wemby is just another Porzingis. These guys don't even watch BB.

All of that NBA adulation was after the Ignite games. His article was in July, before those two games in Vegas. LeBron didn’t even know who Wemby was before Vegas.

DPG21920

02-04-2023, 11:17 PM

Scoot looks like CP3 on steroids (by that I mean more athletic, and not necessarily a better version). Sounds like it contradicts what I said about him not being a generational prospect since CP3 is soon to be an NBA legend, but generational to me would be NBA landscape-changing players. Curry, MJ, Timmy, LeBron…. The thing with building around non-generational (usually average sized) point guards though is they need a stronger supporting cast than say if you were building around wings or bigs. So if the Spurs land Scoot, they need to pair him quickly with other stars or he ends up like winless guys like Lillard, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd (before pairing with Dirk), the list goes on.

With Vassell/Keldon/Sochan/Jak that is already a better team than Lillard ever had IMO and Spurs now have tons of picks and cap space to add to it as you mentioned.

tonight...you

02-04-2023, 11:39 PM

Scoot looks like CP3 on steroids (by that I mean more athletic, and not necessarily a better version). Sounds like it contradicts what I said about him not being a generational prospect since CP3 is soon to be an NBA legend, but generational to me would be NBA landscape-changing players. Curry, MJ, Timmy, LeBron…. The thing with building around non-generational (usually average sized) point guards though is they need a stronger supporting cast than say if you were building around wings or bigs. So if the Spurs land Scoot, they need to pair him quickly with other stars or he ends up like winless guys like Lillard, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd (before pairing with Dirk), the list goes on.
I dunno... CP3 is all about his intelligence and situational cunning moreso than anything else.
I don't see that in Scoot.
Respectfully.

JPB

02-04-2023, 11:44 PM

All of that NBA adulation was after the Ignite games. His article was in July, before those two games in Vegas. LeBron didn’t even know who Wemby was before Vegas.

Wemby was deeply talked about for more than one year on ESPN, so the business knew, and Dean, as a specialist, certainly should have known about the existence of a kid who was considered by scouts for two years already a potential generational talent..

JPB

02-04-2023, 11:58 PM

Was skeptical at first about Scoot. And I’m the guy who goes against the consensus when there are valid reasons. Scoot’s got my seal of approval. He’s not a generational prospect by any means. But he looks closer to what a franchise is looking for when you’re picking that high than most of the guys in the lottery.

It's all about risk. It's nice to speculate and bet on later lottery picks being better than earlier ones, but as a (real) GM, who has the responsabilty of running an NBA franchise with real money, and a ownership above your head, your job is to evaluate risks. You can't reset and remake the draft, your choices may determine the future of your franchise for the next 3-4 years...

It might change, but as we're speaking Scoot as #2 represents the best chance at getting a star/superstar, with the less risks at failing. And if you're Wright, no matter your gut feeling, no matter the flyer you'd like to ake on another player, you take Scoot.... Hey, you may trade him right away for the right deal, but you take him for the value he represents for you and the NBA...

XDT76

02-05-2023, 02:42 AM

Dejounte

02-05-2023, 03:11 AM

I dunno... CP3 is all about his intelligence and situational cunning moreso than anything else.
I don't see that in Scoot.
Respectfully.

Yes, there are aspects from Paul that are extraordinary. The key attribute I’m taking between he and Scoot is the way they both take command as the point guard of the team. Paul is the clear general of the team when he has the ball in his hands, there’s a certain “air” about him when he sets up a play. I feel the same way when Scoot has the ball. When he gets to any spot, it’s like a precognition where suddenly he has more than one good option to choose from whereas other players didn’t plan very well and have no choice but to chuck it up. Watching film of Scoot and the more I watch the more I see his excellent timing on his passes which is a sign of high intelligence.

RC_Drunkford

02-05-2023, 05:17 AM

GG Jackson being mocked in the mid to late first round is an absolute steal. Makes a lot of sense to take a swing at him with how young he is.

mo7888

02-05-2023, 07:19 AM

GG Jackson being mocked in the mid to late first round is an absolute steal. Makes a lot of sense to take a swing at him with how young he is.

To me a guy like Jackson is a reason to acquire a late lottery pick. If you hit #2 and get Scoot and can add Jackson to that you've done something positive for this franchise...and entertaining..

RC_Drunkford

02-05-2023, 10:15 AM

To me a guy like Jackson is a reason to acquire a late lottery pick. If you hit #2 and get Scoot and can add Jackson to that you've done something positive for this franchise...and entertaining..

I agree, been saying this all season

Ariel

02-05-2023, 10:35 AM

I'd be disappointed all that comes out of this draft for us is GG Jackson @ #6 or #7. However, if we land no. 3-5 and we trade back for (say) Orlando's picks (their own + Chicago's), as a lower lottery gamble he could be worth it.

Ariel

02-05-2023, 10:36 AM

GG Jackson being mocked in the mid to late first round is an absolute steal. Makes a lot of sense to take a swing at him with how young he is.
Knowing Presti's mindset, he doesn't go past OKC. Book it.

tonight...you

02-05-2023, 10:54 AM

Yes, there are aspects from Paul that are extraordinary. The key attribute I’m taking between he and Scoot is the way they both take command as the point guard of the team. Paul is the clear general of the team when he has the ball in his hands, there’s a certain “air” about him when he sets up a play. I feel the same way when Scoot has the ball. When he gets to any spot, it’s like a precognition where suddenly he has more than one good option to choose from whereas other players didn’t plan very well and have no choice but to chuck it up. Watching film of Scoot and the more I watch the more I see his excellent timing on his passes which is a sign of high intelligence.
I savvy. Nice observation.

Ariel

02-05-2023, 11:01 AM

There are 2 concerns with Scoot: range, and attitude. And by the later I mean that there's a risk he'll go blinded by the lights and want to bolt at some point. Other than that, he's the clear no. 2 pick IMO.

Mr. Body

02-05-2023, 01:33 PM

There are 2 concerns with Scoot: range, and attitude. And by the later I mean that there's a risk he'll go blinded by the lights and want to bolt at some point. Other than that, he's the clear no. 2 pick IMO.

An undersized guard dependant on athleticism and strength with a very high usage rate. I do like his assist numbers, but it's the G League. He reads Steve Francis to me. Who was very good, but the sort of player who never wins anything.

Mr. Body

02-05-2023, 01:34 PM

Oh yeah and he can't shoot worth shit.

Mnky

02-05-2023, 01:47 PM

The wanting to move to a different market concept has not historically happened much. Some people still clinging to kawhi. Not to mention, the Spurs ran off Kawhi. They demanded he fit in to their mold. They tried to play hardball with his contract. They opened the door to leave and he took their bluff. The same argument that these young guys want to be a star in a big market would mean they want to be THE MAN on their team. They get that in San Antonio. Dejounte didn't want to leave until Pop sat him down and told him why it would benefit him. The majority of NBA life is spent traveling and living in summer homes. Too many obsessed with this concept. It exists, but not nearly as big an issue.

A top two pick would be awesome for the spurs. I think scoot will have close to the same impact on the spurs legitimacy in the NBA as wemby. He's a legit No.1 prospect/Franchise type player. It's a coin flip whether they all work out or not but Scoot is definitely blue chip.

Now back to the thread title.. my top 10 changes every other week. Definitely talent to be had and think the top 5 will have a surprise or two.

Ariel

02-05-2023, 02:37 PM

An undersized guard dependant on athleticism and strength with a very high usage rate. I do like his assist numbers, but it's the G League. He reads Steve Francis to me. Who was very good, but the sort of player who never wins anything.

He's not big, but not undersized either for a PG, he should be about 6'1" realistically. Also he's very athletic and strong, yes, but he's also very skilled, I do not see him as a Westbrook part. 2 because he's much better equipped above his shoulders.
He's really a PG, he also scores, but I think he's a smart and willing passer, and could be molded (somewhat). I don't see him as a ball hog of a chucker at all.
Yes, he comes from the G League, but he's a 19 y.o. in his second professional season and he did well in both, that's not a lower level of competition than a lot of other prospects ranked in the same tier. Also, he looked REALLY good vs Wemby's Euro team. And I don't just go by numbers, I trust my eyes.
He's not a horrible shooter from the line (about 75%) but yes, his 3 is bad (below 30%). If Sochan is already improving, I don't see why Scoot (who is already better at it) couldn't do the same, given that FTs suggest he can (I'll admit this isn't a guarantee, as Tre exemplifies).
I do concur that high usage, me first PGs are not the ideal archetype you build around. But while there may be some similarities with Steve Francis, I don't think that's an accurate description of Scoot. He's got better instincts, he's more creative, younger, and I believe can be molded into the kind of player who looks to get his teammates involved first.
He seems very competitive, I doubt he'll be content with just putting up big numbers.

That's basically why I have him as a worthy no. 2. At some point you can find arguments (excuses?) to pick apart pretty much every prospect, If that's what you're going for. But I think he holds up pretty well against just about any other PG prospect that came out in the past 5 years.

Mr. Body

02-05-2023, 02:56 PM

A shoot-first PG is a SG.

High-usage undersize SGs leading teams in the NBA normally don't go well.

A high-usage player isn't what works on the Spurs. Maybe they can change for a young guy who has only played G-League?

As for G-League/Ignite draftees, we have:

Jalen Green
Jonathan Kuminga
Isaiah Todd
Dyson Daniels
MarJon Beauchamp
Jaden Hardy

And then these have signed contracts:

Daishen Nix
Michael Foster Jr.

Admittedly it's only be a few years, but that's not a track record covered in glory. Definitely can take time with some of these players, but it's not a great sign that most of them got worse in their second year. I left out Wiseman and Sharpe, who might have been even worse prepared for the NBA.

I mean, I get it, we all need something to believe in. I'll leave it alone. But I don't see a 'generational talent.' I see a guy who might be good.

Mr. Body

02-05-2023, 02:58 PM

Meanwhile, watching OSU vs. Michigan. Man, Sensabaugh and Jett Howard are utter non-factors in this game, and they're suggested as late lottery types. I'll watch more, but not really impressed so far.

BG_Spurs_Fan

02-05-2023, 02:59 PM

A shoot-first PG is a SG.

Seriously?

Mr. Body

02-05-2023, 03:02 PM

Seriously?

Lol, yes. WTF. A guy who guns for his own shot then passes out when he has to is a shooting guard. Are people new to basketball or what? Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis were undersized SGs.

Ariel

02-05-2023, 03:08 PM

What was Tony?

Vince Carter's ankle

02-05-2023, 03:12 PM

Lol, yes. WTF. A guy who guns for his own shot then passes out when he has to is a shooting guard. Are people new to basketball or what? Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis were undersized SGs.
Steph?
Lillard?

Mr. Body

02-05-2023, 03:16 PM

Steph?
Lillard?

Lillard definitely ain't a PG. Steph... we call him one because he's small. He's a SG. The Warriors' sets move the ball around enough, with Draymond being the real facilitator, that they don't need an old school point.

Mnky

02-05-2023, 03:37 PM

Shoot first pg is a still a pg. It's in the name. :spin

You can have pgs that score well. You can have sg that's pass well. It's okay. Those that are good at multiple things tend to be ....better basketball players.

It's not that deep as some people try to make it.

exstatic

02-05-2023, 08:20 PM

Knowing Presti's mindset, he doesn't go past OKC. Book it.

If he can play ball now, Presti won’t touch him.

JPB

02-05-2023, 09:27 PM

What was Tony?

French, why?

JPB

02-05-2023, 09:31 PM

there are just different types of PGs.. Some shooter, some more passer. Like for basically any position. Manu was a SG but more of a passer, then you have pure shooting guards. Jokic is a passing big, then you have stretch bigs...

Is there still any real position in today's NBA tbh?

Ariel

02-05-2023, 10:29 PM

there are just different types of PGs.. Some shooter, some more passer. Like for basically any position. Manu was a SG but more of a passer, then you have pure shooting guards. Jokic is a passing big, then you have stretch bigs...

Is there still any real position in today's NBA tbh?
Precisely. Tony was a shoot first PG, and had no trouble handling PG duties at an extremely successful level for a decade and a half. That refutes the point that a shot first PG isn't a PG, as stated by the poster to whom I replied to. Point being, I don't see why Scoot couldn't grow into that same role, given he'd be the same age as Tony was when he joined the Spurs. If the skills and the will are there, he'll make it work.

The Truth #6

02-05-2023, 11:59 PM

Random thought. Semi-trolling. Have people just stopped thinking about the fact that Victor is 7’4” and rail thin? To me, it’s actually too tall and historically prone to injury or disappointment. You get the number #1 obviously you take him and feel blessed that you don’t have to rationalize the Thomson Twins. But I could easily see Banchero, for devil’s advocate, having a longer and ultimately more successful career because he doesn’t get injured. Shit, there’s probably an argument for trading the pick because teams would pay through the nose. Of course no GM is going to do that and it’s insane to do that, but I think the hype around Victor is so strong that I think it’s helpful to consider there is still some risk with him. The last Unicorn never even made it to training camp. Just spitballing.

exstatic

02-06-2023, 04:17 AM

Random thought. Semi-trolling. Have people just stopped thinking about the fact that Victor is 7’4” and rail thin? To me, it’s actually too tall and historically prone to injury or disappointment. You get the number #1 obviously you take him and feel blessed that you don’t have to rationalize the Thomson Twins. But I could easily see Banchero, for devil’s advocate, having a longer and ultimately more successful career because he doesn’t get injured. Shit, there’s probably an argument for trading the pick because teams would pay through the nose. Of course no GM is going to do that and it’s insane to do that, but I think the hype around Victor is so strong that I think it’s helpful to consider there is still some risk with him. The last Unicorn never even made it to training camp. Just spitballing.

Those other 7’4” players were centers, and took all kinds of punishment in the paint.. Don’t play him at center. He’s a SF.

The best move is to get out of your own way, and don’t talk yourself out of a generational prospect. Portland passed on Michael Jordan because they already had Clyde Drexler. The Spurs aren’t tanking because they think this is a great draft, they’re tanking for Wemby, and they wouldn’t be doing that without information from Tony and Boris. Tony OWNS ASVEL, and would have access to medical info.

dbestpro

02-06-2023, 10:11 AM

there are just different types of PGs.. Some shooter, some more passer. Like for basically any position. Manu was a SG but more of a passer, then you have pure shooting guards. Jokic is a passing big, then you have stretch bigs...

Is there still any real position in today's NBA tbh?

Some used to do it all. Back in the day Oscar Robinson's career stats averages were 25.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 9.5. Nate Archibald averaged 28 ppg in 71 and 34 ppg in 72. The scoring point guard has been around for a long time.

Mr. Body

02-06-2023, 10:48 AM

Some used to do it all. Back in the day Oscar Robinson's career stats averages were 25.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 9.5. Nate Archibald averaged 28 ppg in 71 and 34 ppg in 72. The scoring point guard has been around for a long time.

That's back when one player was good enough to bring the ball up the court. It was a generation away from Bob Cousy blowing people's minds by dribbling with both hands.

Okay, I exaggerated. But we need to recognize a difference betwen a Tony Parker type who is there to stir the defense around and get it unsettled while attacking the paint. It was a PG version of Tim's post-ups, in a way -- packing the defense and getting kick-outs. Honestly I haven't seen Archibald or Robertson play. My sense is that they weren't 'shoot first' point guards. They were scorers, but this happened in the course of the offense.

Players like Marbury and Steve Francis changed things. Allen Iverson. They were looking to score first. If they drew attention they'd cough the ball up. Harden is sort of the apotheosis of this mold, pound the shit out of the ball, jack a three or drive and kick. Ugly as shit basketball.

That's my fear/read about Henderson. He's driving and attacking, which is cool, but he's high usage and isn't the point guard you'd get from Chris Paul or Mike Conley. He's going downhill because he's athletically dominant. Which is cool, but what a guy like Steph Curry does is get the offense stirring the way Parker did, if at different parts of the floor. In short, I don't see a Marbury PG. But Ignite isn't a place where you can get a read on any of this at all.

JPB

02-06-2023, 12:35 PM

Random thought. Semi-trolling. Have people just stopped thinking about the fact that Victor is 7’4” and rail thin? To me, it’s actually too tall and historically prone to injury or disappointment. You get the number #1 obviously you take him and feel blessed that you don’t have to rationalize the Thomson Twins. But I could easily see Banchero, for devil’s advocate, having a longer and ultimately more successful career because he doesn’t get injured. Shit, there’s probably an argument for trading the pick because teams would pay through the nose. Of course no GM is going to do that and it’s insane to do that, but I think the hype around Victor is so strong that I think it’s helpful to consider there is still some risk with him. The last Unicorn never even made it to training camp. Just spitballing.

Just watch this and remember he's 7'4 (possibly 7'5 by NBA standards)... then you'll understand all that is irrelevant.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1621901501135290371

JPB

02-06-2023, 12:49 PM

Or at 00:00:33 here... (the full highlights actually)

https://www.nba.com/watch/video/victor-wembanyama-drops-20-points-and-records-8-rebounds?plsrc=nba&collection=best-of-victor-wembanyama

KingKev

02-06-2023, 04:30 PM

Those other 7’4” players were centers, and took all kinds of punishment in the paint.. Don’t play him at center. He’s a SF.

The best move is to get out of your own way, and don’t talk yourself out of a generational prospect. Portland passed on Michael Jordan because they already had Clyde Drexler. The Spurs aren’t tanking because they think this is a great draft, they’re tanking for Wemby, and they wouldn’t be doing that without information from Tony and Boris. Tony OWNS ASVEL, and would have access to medical info.

Shawn Bradley was 7’6 and sustained an incredibly durable career as a 5 banging in the paint in the heat era of bigs Ewing, Robinson, Hakeem, Shaq, Zo, Mutombo. Hell even the 90’s PFs were basically bigs.

He did extensive off court workouts to gain size and strength. No reason a team can’t bring Welby is slowly and build his body up to be multi positional.

BackHome

02-07-2023, 12:22 AM

If we do draft him Spurs need to bubble wrap him and definitely not throw him to the wolves - They need him to increase his core strength and add a few pounds and work on his flexibility which will all help protect him from potential injuries. And NO he should not be starting and getting major minutes bring him slow very SLOW and steady and either way we need another good tank the following year. With those two picks and the other future picks and with the improvement of some of our current players we will be back in the Game :lobt:

Atl Spur

02-07-2023, 09:24 AM

Tweak the culture. San Antonio is a 3rd rate US city but so is Cleveland, Utah, Detroit, Memphis maybe even Philly.

We don’t need to rebrand but obviously there is something not clicking.

? Please remind me of the big time free agents who have gone to Memphis etc…. Btw, what is 3 rate?

KingKev

02-07-2023, 09:47 AM

? Please remind me of the big time free agents who have gone to Memphis etc…. Btw, what is 3 rate?

3rd tier for most ppl’s minds regarding US cities with basketball teams:

- NY, Chicago, Boston, LA, Miami, San Fran
- Atlanta, Philly, Dallas, Houston, NO (debatable)
- third tier is basically every other NBA city

I’m not saying San Antonio is a bad city. I’ve applied to jobs in San Antonio (I’m Canadian) and think it is a nice quiet place that is very affordable with some cultural appeal but as a young athlete making ridiculous money the city itself coupled with the franchise culture doesn’t appeal to 75% of the NBA because they have better options.

thiste

02-07-2023, 10:22 AM

They need him to increase his core strength and add a few pounds and work on his flexibility which will all help protect him from potential injuries.

Clearly you're not aware of the training he's receiving right now.

Tony OWNS ASVEL, and would have access to medical info.

And Boris owns the Mets 92.

Mr. Body

02-07-2023, 10:30 PM

For a thread devoted to players who are not Wembanyama or Henderson, we spend an awful lot of posts on Wembanyama and Henderson.

Anyway, I'm pretty intrigued by Anthony Black, for Arkansas. He just ripped Kentucky twice in the half court for full-court buckets. He made a superb pass when the ball was kicked to him at the top of the three-point line; without coming down, he whipped it to a guy under the basket. Great vision, nice motor. Not sure where I place him, probably late lottery or late top 10.

Mr. Body

02-07-2023, 11:24 PM

And I really like Trayce Jackson-Davis. He has the appearance of one of those beasts who is good at college but it doesn't translate. A Drew Timme or Hunter Dickenson (Michigan). But he's excellently athletic, rangy, cleans the boards on both ends and a great shot blocker. Really comparable to Brandon Clarke when he was at Gonzaga. Still can't shoot from distance, or doesn't try. He's projected by many as late 2nd round but I'd take him with our early 2nd round pick, easy. He's 23 but he's going to be what you want off the bench. Skilled, understands the game, way more athletic than Poeltl or Collins - although a good bit shorter.

The Truth #6

02-08-2023, 12:09 AM

I could definitely see us going for Anthony Black, even reaching for him. He has lots of qualities that seem to scream Spurs material.

The Truth #6

02-08-2023, 12:46 AM

Shawn Bradley was 7’6 and sustained an incredibly durable career as a 5 banging in the paint in the heat era of bigs Ewing, Robinson, Hakeem, Shaq, Zo, Mutombo. Hell even the 90’s PFs were basically bigs.

He did extensive off court workouts to gain size and strength. No reason a team can’t bring Welby is slowly and build his body up to be multi positional.

However, Bradley was invigorated by Mormon Virgin Power, and so that makes it sort of difficult to compare him to other situations.

BackHome

02-08-2023, 01:56 AM

And I really like Trayce Jackson-Davis. He has the appearance of one of those beasts who is good at college but it doesn't translate. A Drew Timme or Hunter Dickenson (Michigan). But he's excellently athletic, rangy, cleans the boards on both ends and a great shot blocker. Really comparable to Brandon Clarke when he was at Gonzaga. Still can't shoot from distance, or doesn't try. He's projected by many as late 2nd round but I'd take him with our early 2nd round pick, easy. He's 23 but he's going to be what you want off the bench. Skilled, understands the game, way more athletic than Poeltl or Collins - although a good bit shorter.

Yeah been looking at high second rounders I definitely think they a few hidden gems in this draft even in the second round - The kid I like right now is AZUOLAS TUBELIS - a 6’11 PF, playing for Arizona he just a great basketball player he is almost averaging a double double every game so he gets you points and he gets you rebounds.

JPB

02-08-2023, 05:29 AM

However, Bradley was invigorated by Mormon Virgin Power, and so that makes it sort of difficult to compare him to other situations.

I think I remember back then people explaining Bradley was fed with containers of bananas to gain weight. Good old days.

mo7888

02-08-2023, 07:06 AM

For a thread devoted to players who are not Wembanyama or Henderson, we spend an awful lot of posts on Wembanyama and Henderson.

Anyway, I'm pretty intrigued by Anthony Black, for Arkansas. He just ripped Kentucky twice in the half court for full-court buckets. He made a superb pass when the ball was kicked to him at the top of the three-point line; without coming down, he whipped it to a guy under the basket. Great vision, nice motor. Not sure where I place him, probably late lottery or late top 10.

I've got him #10 on my board... he'd be a good fit here. If we were in a scenario where we ended up with #3 and traded back with Orlando for 2 lottery picks he'd be a guy we should target with one of those imo..

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 07:30 AM

I've got him #10 on my board... he'd be a good fit here. If we were in a scenario where we ended up with #3 and traded back with Orlando for 2 lottery picks he'd be a guy we should target with one of those imo..

I would love like Gradey and Black at this point.

mo7888

02-08-2023, 07:49 AM

I would love like Gradey and Black at this point.

I've got Gradey at #8.... I may have him to low.... kids gonna have a long and successful career imo..

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 07:53 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDXZBSIGdzU

The two steals starting at :32 were back-to-back and started a cascade from which Kentucky never really recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uUw4s3pDnQ

And this pass was really impressive to me.

mo7888

02-08-2023, 08:01 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDXZBSIGdzU

The two steals starting at :32 were back-to-back and started a cascade from which Kentucky never really recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uUw4s3pDnQ

And this pass was really impressive to me.

Several pundits like to compare him to Giddey, but I think that's a lazy comparison. Black has a better shot and more athleticism.... he may not be as polished yet, but he's got everything he needs to get there and and surpass Giddey imo..

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 08:29 AM

Several pundits like to compare him to Giddey, but I think that's a lazy comparison. Black has a better shot and more athleticism.... he may not be as polished yet, but he's got everything he needs to get there and and surpass Giddey imo..

I'm putting him as my #3 right now, tbh. May seem high, but I'm early in and starting to look at guys more. I want to watch Brandon Miller in games. No interest in the Thompson twins.

Anyway, I kinda see the Giddey comparison. They have similar ways they attack defenses. Neither has a great burst, but they're both shifty and tricky in their drives, both highly aware of what's going on in terms of where to move the ball. I'd say Giddey is superior in finding shooters and Black needs work tuning up his interior passing, etc. But Giddey was playing professionally already. They're both actually pretty physical and don't shy from contact, banging down low, scrumming and mixing it up.

So I agree in those areas. But like you, he's far, far better a defender and more athletic. I don't think Giddey is as bad a defender as advertised, but Black stands to be far superior. He can be a menace in that area, kind of like Kawhi at least in picking out swipes and steals in his area, as in being a threat to players passing through his area, instantly moving into offense. He looks very good on the ball and gets really skinny getting over screens. He also just doesn't stop -- he has tons of energy. Both he and Giddey are both apparently really smart players. I do think Black's shot is kind of fucky. He uses too much of a guide hand (like Sochan, but better) and takes a while to load up his 3s. But those are fixable.

I'm excited. He's a really nice player and could really rise as we get into tournament time.

JPB

02-08-2023, 09:06 AM

Really not convinced by Anthony Black as a solid NBA player. All the looks of a potential major bust.

Different viewers, different impressions, but to me he's raw, his shot is ugly, he's not very fast or smooth, he can somehow dunk (I could too) but he isn't what you'd qualify as "athletic", far from it, specially if you consider, and that's the main point, that he's freaking skinny and not like "skinny but can add some weight and muscke" but skinny like "he'll always be skinny anyway"... I have twice his arms and I'm not lifting like crazy.

He doesn't look to me like an NBA player by any means but just your typical college player who can thrive there but will be irrelevant in the NBA. Think Adam Morrison. But as always, I could be totally wrong.

dbestpro

02-08-2023, 09:27 AM

The steal will be Smith. He will drop due to injury and come out as a Lillard type player.

The Truth #6

02-08-2023, 09:27 AM

I've got Gradey at #8.... I may have him to low.... kids gonna have a long and successful career imo..

…in Utah. Lol.

mo7888

02-08-2023, 09:50 AM

The steal will be Smith. He will drop due to injury and come out as a Lillard type player.

I've got Smith #3 ... but it's with the assumption that his health isn't a long-term concern..

mo7888

02-08-2023, 09:52 AM

…in Utah. Lol.

Lol I get it.... seriously though, I think he goes before they pick... most boards have him around 10 now but I think he could rise as high as #4 if his athletic numbers test well.

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 09:54 AM

Gradey is a guy who could rise with a tournament run. Him, George on Baylor, Walker on Houston, these guys have a chance to really shine. Sochan really showed out last year, for example.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 10:24 AM

One thing I'm curious about tracking is some dream fallers for that #33 pick. Not sure who, Kel'el Ware, Rayan Rupert would have to tumble inconceivably far. But even without a faller- Jordan Walsh, Leonard Miller, Amari Bailey are in range and could be nice scores too. Not saying any of these fit Spurs or anything just as BPAs in that range that could be intriguing. Who else?

Some interesting value loitering around that late first range. If anyone pushes up Spurs are poised to net a steal with that selection slot.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 10:29 AM

Also love the idea of trading back with ORL but I don't think the Magic do that so fast unfortunately

You could take Smith Jr and like Black or something with #5 and the #11 ORL from CHI but no way ORL likes #3 that much unless there was more added to the deal?

BacktoBasics

02-08-2023, 10:32 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDXZBSIGdzU

The two steals starting at :32 were back-to-back and started a cascade from which Kentucky never really recovered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uUw4s3pDnQ

And this pass was really impressive to me.

I've said a few times here that I'm a huge fan. I would take him at 4 or 5 and arguably 3. Which I know won't be a popular opinion but I really like this kid.

mo7888

02-08-2023, 10:35 AM

Also love the idea of trading back with ORL but I don't think the Magic do that so fast unfortunately

You could take Smith Jr and like Black or something with #5 and the #11 ORL from CHI but no way ORL likes #3 that much unless there was more added to the deal?

It depends on what their board looks like...they could be very high on Smith Jr and he'd be a great fit.. if they value him that could be a deal they'd want...

I could also see them wanting a package centered around Devin....I don't know what that would look like though..

exstatic

02-08-2023, 10:40 AM

The steal will be Smith. He will drop due to injury and come out as a Lillard type player.

His FT shooting is sub 70%, and he’s shooing 34% from the college arc. There is NOTHING there that says Dame.

mo7888

02-08-2023, 10:43 AM

His FT shooting is sub 70%, and he’s shooing 34% from the college arc. There is NOTHING there that says Dame.

Sample size

duncan2150

02-08-2023, 10:43 AM

For a thread devoted to players who are not Wembanyama or Henderson, we spend an awful lot of posts on Wembanyama and Henderson.

Anyway, I'm pretty intrigued by Anthony Black, for Arkansas. He just ripped Kentucky twice in the half court for full-court buckets. He made a superb pass when the ball was kicked to him at the top of the three-point line; without coming down, he whipped it to a guy under the basket. Great vision, nice motor. Not sure where I place him, probably late lottery or late top 10.

Really intrigued by Black too. A lot of tools, good IQ , good phyhsical attributes, can do a little bit of everything.

He could be the pick if the Spurs are outside the top 3-4.

For the moment i have George ahead of him in terms of guards. Nick Smith too but he is not playing actually.

George is more talented imo but lack some size and explosiveness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOLTLOw9diI

duncan2150

02-08-2023, 10:45 AM

His FT shooting is sub 70%, and he’s shooing 34% from the college arc. There is NOTHING there that says Dame.

Really difficult to evaluate him based on his games at Arkansas.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 10:56 AM

Black kinda reminds me of maybe what D. White was supposed to be for SA

Agree that Black's seeming lack of athleticism is the main criticism. He could get dusted at the NBA level

exstatic

02-08-2023, 11:01 AM

Really difficult to evaluate him based on his games at Arkansas.

Are you talking about Nick, or Terquavion? Terq plays at NC state, and is at least in the size mold of Dame.

Drom John

02-08-2023, 11:06 AM

I wonder if anyone has mock drafts this time last year.

Aggregate NBA mock draft 4.0: Duke's AJ Griffin is soaring back into the top tier (https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-espn-bleacher-report-the-athletic-chet-holmgren/)

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. AJ Griffin
6. Johnny Davis
7. Jalen Duren
8. Keegan Murray
9. Bennedict Mathurin
10. TyTy Washington
11. Jaden Hardy
12. Kendall Brown
13. Shaedon Sharpe
14. Ochai Agbaji

19. Blake Wesley
23. Jeremy Sochan
87. Dominick Barlow
Not in top 90. Malaki Branham

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 11:08 AM

Yeah I remember J Hardy was all hype this time last year. Sunk so far

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 11:09 AM

wow Bran went from >90 to #20

duncan2150

02-08-2023, 11:12 AM

Are you talking about Nick, or Terquavion? Terq plays at NC state, and is at least in the size mold of Dame.

Nick, i said Arkansas :)

Both are injured so i was thinking dbestpro talked about Nick.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 11:15 AM

also remember C Houstan from Mich being super touted only to fall far but he's not on that mock

#32 overall but I remember him high in the first round in early mocks, right?

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 11:16 AM

kinda weird how Keyonte has been falling like Kendal Brown did

Brown #12 mocked, went #46

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 11:26 AM

Black kinda reminds me of maybe what D. White was supposed to be for SA

Agree that Black's seeming lack of athleticism is the main criticism. He could get dusted at the NBA level

He's not unathletic though. He's a lot like Sochan, tbh, very fluid and smooth, multi-lateral.

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 11:30 AM

Aggregate NBA mock draft 4.0: Duke's AJ Griffin is soaring back into the top tier (https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-espn-bleacher-report-the-athletic-chet-holmgren/)

1. Jabari Smith
2. Chet Holmgren
3. Paolo Banchero
4. Jaden Ivey
5. AJ Griffin
6. Johnny Davis
7. Jalen Duren
8. Keegan Murray
9. Bennedict Mathurin
10. TyTy Washington
11. Jaden Hardy
12. Kendall Brown
13. Shaedon Sharpe
14. Ochai Agbaji

19. Blake Wesley
23. Jeremy Sochan
87. Dominick Barlow
Not in top 90. Malaki Branham

Thanks, very interesting. Cool to see who was firming up and who was not. Jaden Hardy, hoo-boy did he drop. As did Kendal Brown and Washington, if less so. And we can see how the tournament helped Sochan and Branham. It was in January that Malaki started popping and by now was really starting to cook.

Mr. Body

02-08-2023, 11:33 AM

kinda weird how Keyonte has been falling like Kendal Brown did

Brown #12 mocked, went #46

Has George been dropping? I've often seen him in the top 10 range. I think his star is still really bright.

exstatic

02-08-2023, 11:44 AM

Nick, i said Arkansas :)

Both are injured so i was thinking dbestpro talked about Nick.

Right, but the discussion started with ‘Smith’, and there were two of them mocked, and the comparison was made to Dame, who’s like 6’1”.

duncan2150

02-08-2023, 12:12 PM

kinda weird how Keyonte has been falling like Kendal Brown did

Brown #12 mocked, went #46

Keyonte George ? https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-brandon-miller-amen-thompson-ausar-thompson/

duncan2150

02-08-2023, 12:17 PM

Has George been dropping? I've often seen him in the top 10 range. I think his star is still really bright.

Your're right. number 8 on the aggregate mock, He's not dropping.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 01:01 PM

good call then, thought Keynote had slid a bit in the mocks but looks like I'm wrong.

actually if anything Keynote rose. I just googled a mock from Oct 2022 that has him at #10 and now he's at #8.

guess I was thinking how some of his highlights didn't quite pop to my eye but it must just be me because it hasn't affected his mockings elsewhere.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 01:07 PM

Well this USA Today mock from Nov 2022 has Keyonte at #4 and maybe that's what I'm thinking of.

Just had the impression Keyonte had been mocked as high as top 5 albeit early/pre season 2022 and now sliding a bit to top 10 ish range which kinda reminded me of Kendall Browns trajectory a bit but I think I'm still off on this one.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-keyonte-george-dereck-lively-college-basketball

Of course this also has Livey II top 5 lol and so things have shifted since then for sure.

The Truth #6

02-08-2023, 01:13 PM

Yeah I remember J Hardy was all hype this time last year. Sunk so far

He had 29 points recently… So that’s something. I would completely write him off yet.

heyheymymy

02-08-2023, 01:17 PM

He had 29 points recently… So that’s something. I would completely write him off yet.

I suppose the hype had to come from somewheres then. Good for him. I love those agedlikewine draft stories. Hope he puts it all together.

The Truth #6

02-08-2023, 01:31 PM

I suppose the hype had to come from somewheres then. Good for him. I love those agedlikewine draft stories. Hope he puts it all together.

Last year for one of our later pics, I wanted either Malaki or Hardy, and I’m totally fine with Malaki so far. I didn’t think Hardy was playing at all, but I just googled him and saw he put up a career high 29 points last night, and he seems to be getting more playing time after the big trade.

scott

02-08-2023, 05:52 PM

Scoot in concussion protocol and did not make the trip to Austin for two games vs. them. Deep state inside sources state it is because Scoot does not want to get drafted by the Spurs.

BackHome

02-08-2023, 06:19 PM

If I was his manager I would shut him down until draft

Mr. Body

02-09-2023, 08:41 PM

Are Brandon Miller and Jabari Smith, Jr., the same player?

Smith had a titch better stats in categories. Miller has better advanced stats across the board. Miller will be a year and a half older than Smith was on draft day.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=brandon-miller--jabari-smith

BackHome

02-10-2023, 12:26 AM

You make a good comparison I think though Smith is a little better as far as being stronger and his over all game but the talent difference is not that far between the two.

Mr. Body

02-11-2023, 03:20 PM

A lot of college today, with most players of interest on the court.

Watching Alabama vs. Auburn. The comps between Jabari and Brandon Miller are really spot on. I feel like Miller isn't as long, not as tall, but more fluid of an athlete. Smith could get shots over most anybody, Miller has to resort to dribble moves at times.

I didn't watch Auburn a ton last year, but don't remember Smith being an exceptional passer, although a willing one. My sense is that Miller is better driving the ball and has better court vision.

The age difference is still a sticking point. At least a little. Miller will be 21 around the early part of the season. He's older than Smith is.

My call is that Miller is the superior player. In my eyes, he seems like he's still filling into his talent profile and expanding his game while Smith tbh always felt fairly finished. One pause is that Miller is still slight and lacks strength and he's already 20 and a half y.o. He doesn't shy from contact, at least, but he's a very slight PF.

south side spur

02-11-2023, 03:27 PM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qZfGZvHU7Gs

Mr. Body

02-11-2023, 03:51 PM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qZfGZvHU7Gs

Oh, no, what are you doing ESPN.

I was just about to say that Brad Miller has the same problem I had with Smith. They both look like role players. Absolutely not Durant, who as a freshman at UT was already a hub, team lead, everything.

With Miller, as with Smith, you're looking at paying a top 3 or 4 salary for a guy who might mostly stay around the three-point line and require activation. If the shooting doesn't translate I don't know what else they do.

heyheymymy

02-11-2023, 03:57 PM

Watching B.Mill right now ALA vs AUB

My new fave for SA to pick hopefully

duncan2150

02-11-2023, 03:57 PM

A lot of college today, with most players of interest on the court.

Watching Alabama vs. Auburn. The comps between Jabari and Brandon Miller are really spot on. I feel like Miller isn't as long, not as tall, but more fluid of an athlete. Smith could get shots over most anybody, Miller has to resort to dribble moves at times.

I didn't watch Auburn a ton last year, but don't remember Smith being an exceptional passer, although a willing one. My sense is that Miller is better driving the ball and has better court vision.

The age difference is still a sticking point. At least a little. Miller will be 21 around the early part of the season. He's older than Smith is.

My call is that Miller is the superior player. In my eyes, he seems like he's still filling into his talent profile and expanding his game while Smith tbh always felt fairly finished. One pause is that Miller is still slight and lacks strength and he's already 20 and a half y.o. He doesn't shy from contact, at least, but he's a very slight PF.

Thanks Mr Body

Imo Miller is more suited with his position in the NBA than Smith. Smith is not good inside : not good on post defense or post offense but he is a PF.

For Miller who is a true SF imo to not be a a good or maybe average inside player is not a big problem.

Also i see him being better driving to the basket than at the beginning of the season.

Agreed with your conclusion.

JPB

02-11-2023, 04:01 PM

If I was his manager I would shut him down until draft

If you ever had to shut him down, that probably was this summer when the hype was at its top... Since then, a few little concerns have emerged and he's still projected #2 but you never know what can happen behind... He's also playing to clear all that now.

And maybe he tought he could challenge Wemby with one more year as a pro baller...

heyheymymy

02-11-2023, 04:01 PM

Great analysis all

The JSJr comps to B.Mill are spot on, cant unsee

I am fascinated with the potential fit and think SA can coax more out of Miller than he currently is showing.

heyheymymy

02-11-2023, 04:09 PM

Wary of Millers age and the overpaid role player possibility - good points there for sure

There is a lot of intrigue still. Could turn that 6'9 frame into a monster and remember Sochan was doing things in the first 50 games of his NBA career that he never really exhibited before then; shooting and offensive tools he was said to not really possess imo tbh

JPB

02-11-2023, 04:14 PM

Watching B.Mill right now ALA vs AUB

My new fave for SA to pick hopefully

Not the best game to pimp Brandon Miller, right?

But yeah, he got game.

heyheymymy

02-11-2023, 04:15 PM

I know SA has holes pretty much 1-5 now with PG depth shallow and now Poeltl gone despite the Zollins/Bassey/Birch which you could argue is decent Bigs corps esp if Bassey levels up or Birch surprises.

But with the departure of JR and now Doug coming into his expiring and thus a trade asset, B.Mill could drop in SF without much of a logjam and play up on some PF at 6'9 and with his stretch 3PT shooting could space the floor and wreak havoc on opposing defenses.