Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson

[Ariel]

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1649054895109181451
6'8"? Is he going full Rodman and playing in high heels? Last I checked he was 6'6"...

[JuneJive]

Bust written all over him.

[JPB]

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1649054895109181451

Wemby at 1:35 :wow

[slick'81]

Wemby at 1:35 :wow

sacre bleu

[The Truth #6]

I’m excited to see who we get.

Of the prospects I feel like he will be 18 or 19 years old, congenial, no legal/character red flags, hard working, and with offensive upside. Not sure who that will be.

[Mr. Body]

I’m excited to see who we get.

Of the prospects I feel like he will be 18 or 19 years old, congenial, no legal/character red flags, hard working, and with offensive upside. Not sure who that will be.

You just described Josh Primo! Congrats!

[mo7888]

I’m excited to see who we get.

Of the prospects I feel like he will be 18 or 19 years old, congenial, no legal/character red flags, hard working, and with offensive upside. Not sure who that will be.

That sounds like most of the top 10 except the Thompson twins..

[CGD]

You just described Josh Primo! Congrats!

Anyone have an update on Primo? I mean the league is about to reinstate CHA’s Bridges so you have to think this guy gets another shot sometime if he shows growth/remorse.

[Ariel]

Anyone have an update on Primo? I mean the league is about to reinstate CHA’s Bridges so you have to think this guy gets another shot sometime if he shows growth/remorse.
Those are 2 very different situations. Bridges had a very serious legal situation hanging over his head, but his archetype is at a premium and he's already a fringe all star at that. Someone is always going to take a chance with him provided his legal situation isn't at a point of no return (i.e. jail time, more allegations coming to the surface, etc.). If he can stay in check and play up to his potential, the risk will be worth it for some organization (not the Spurs).
On the other hand, Primo's case is much milder, but also he isn't good enough that you can't get several prospects equal or better than him every year in the later first round or even second round. Not necessarily the same kind of player, but in terms of value I'd argue past year's Andrew Nembhard and Jaden Hardy are as good if not better bets at being productive NBA players that Primo is. Maybe even Max Christie and Bryce McGowens. This year I'd rather take Strawther than Primo, even disregarding the off court stuff.
If so, why take a chance on him, when he's not that special to begin with? I realize some people had convinced themselves he was on his way to stardom, that sounds more like a leap of faith or wishful thinking that evidence based conclusion.

[wildbill2u]

Wemby at 1:35 :wow

Who would this guy most resemble on our current squad???? Is he a second round pick?

[The Truth #6]

That sounds like most of the top 10 except the Thompson twins..

Nor Miller.

[JPB]

Who would this guy most resemble on our current squad???? Is he a second round pick?

If you talk about Coulibaly, I would say Keldon, not as strong for now but maybe a bit more dynamic and faster, notably on fast break thanks his long strides where he's pretty impressive, as you can see in the vid.

Ball handking OK but not totally there yet but I believe it will, he's still young (not 19 yet), and has shown abilites to create off the dribble (mostly to slash tho). Can shoot the 3 but mostly on catch and shoot (which is already this). Good slasher thanks then to his athltetism and can finish (I could say better than Wesley but that wouldn't speak much). intrigued to see what all that could give as he'll bulk up. Active on defense, good instincts to deflect or disturb passes and nice BBIQ. Can block a shot here or there.

Depending on who you ask, he's projected late FR, early SR but you know how it goes with euros, some people only start at seriously looking at them when they declare... I firmly believe he's a FRounder and could go as high as 20 (or more, who knows in this draft) for whoever would be ready to talk a flyer on him. The upside and potenitial are there, as a slasher who can shoot the 3, defend and run faster than everyone on fast break, eventually playmaking more over time.

[wildbill2u]

JPB: yeah, Keldon was the first guy that came to mind for me. Perhaps this guy Coulibaly, or someone like him (Miller??) will open up some eyes. Players like him (and Keldon) come around a lot in the drafts and may have more upside than some on our current roster. Not saying this is the guy to replace Keldon, but we have to keep looking for a better SF to move forward. If we get a high draftee with immediate skills, throw him into the mix like Sochan and let him prove himself.

For that reason, I wouldn't be upset if Keldon got traded in order to try someone new with a better BBIQ and more upside in view. After this many seasons, I think we've about seen all we're going to in Kendal's development. Never gonna be the All-star we need. And he still has some glaring defieciencies in physical ability as a "tweener" as well as BBIQ which results in problems on defense and offense. And I don't see how you move him from a starter to second team bench role here. It seldom works out, so better to let him find a place with another team.

Which brings us round again to the possibility of getting Scoot. I suppose the FO will take him if they can get him. If not, I shudder at the thought of either of the twins, so I would prefet a great SF pick.

[exstatic]

Anyone have an update on Primo? I mean the league is about to reinstate CHA’s Bridges so you have to think this guy gets another shot sometime if he shows growth/remorse.

He’s never been suspended or barred in any way by the league. As a flasher, which is a sex crime, he’s beyond radioactive to teams. Knowing what they know, if they sign him, and he reverts, they will have some level of legal liability.

[BacktoBasics]

He’s never been suspended or barred in any way by the league. As a flasher, which is a sex crime, he’s beyond radioactive to teams. Knowing what they know, if they sign him, and he reverts, they will have some level of legal liability.

Technically there is no crime. I don’t think he’s been convicted or even charged.

[exstatic]

Technically there is no crime. I don’t think he’s been convicted or even charged.

Doesn’t mean there wasn’t a crime. Once suits are settled, many times charges go by the wayside. I’m guessing if you dig, the depositions are somewhere. There was supposedly multiple teams interested, and then…nothing. Something they found out made him radioactive.

[baseline bum]

There was supposedly multiple teams interested, and then…nothing. Something they found out made him radioactive.

They probably watched tape of him.

[BatManu20]

1650885124731416576

[duncan2150]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvetZfzUV6I

If we draft 6 or 7, you can give me this guy.

Atypical player, looks like a 3 and D at the four/five( small ball) spots. He could be at least a very good role player, not exactly what you want with a top pick but the floor is good.

[tonight...you]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvetZfzUV6I

If we draft 6 or 7, you can give me this guy.

Atypical player, looks like a 3 and D at the four/five( small ball) spots. He could be at least a very good role player, not exactly what you want with a top pick but the floor is good.
I like him. He seems like a guy that, on D, could compliment and even enhance Sochan with their defensive versatility.
And let's face it, this team needs a serious injection of D and I'm not sure it was all because of tanking.
On O? I'll be hopeful, but not too optimistic.
I do see a lot of good intentions in what he wants to do, but he's just a tick too slow, or a smidge too off to execute what he wants correctly.
That can be fixable, but that D with Sochan and him switching is mouth watering.

I love how active and instinctual his hands and arms are when he's defending with his good positioning. They're all over the place all the time.

[rascal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvetZfzUV6I

If we draft 6 or 7, you can give me this guy.

Atypical player, looks like a 3 and D at the four/five( small ball) spots. He could be at least a very good role player, not exactly what you want with a top pick but the floor is good.

No more role players. The Spurs have a team full of them. Need to swing for the highest upside players.

I don't want a team full of limited offensive players and trying to win with defense.
I'd rather have Taylor Hendriks instead of this guy. Hendriks looks to have a higher offensive potential and still is solid defensively.

[Mr. Body]

Funny, because what the Spurs have is offense. What they need is defense.

[TD 21]

Funny, because what the Spurs have is offense. What they need is defense.

:lmao They finished 29th offensively.

[Mr. Body]

:lmao They finished 29th offensively.

So what, Poindexter? They're fine on offense. They kept sitting out all their fucking players. Defense is where they need to improve.

[exstatic]

I like him. He seems like a guy that, on D, could compliment and even enhance Sochan with their defensive versatility.
And let's face it, this team needs a serious injection of D and I'm not sure it was all because of tanking.
On O? I'll be hopeful, but not too optimistic.
I do see a lot of good intentions in what he wants to do, but he's just a tick too slow, or a smidge too off to execute what he wants correctly.
That can be fixable, but that D with Sochan and him switching is mouth watering.

I love how active and instinctual his hands and arms are when he's defending with his good positioning. They're all over the place all the time.

He actually is reportedly a bit lead footed laterally, to the point where he has trouble staying in front of 4s. When he played against Hendricks, Hendricks forced him into floaters, and blew by Walker for a dunk.

[tonight...you]

He actually is reportedly a bit lead footed laterally, to the point where he has trouble staying in front of 4s. When he played against Hendricks, Hendricks forced him into floaters, and blew by Walker for a dunk.
That's good to know. Thanks.

[The Truth #6]

I remember Dork on Draft suggested he was slow footed against Hendricks, but in the Adam Spinella YouTube breakdown, Walker appears to be able to stay with lots of smaller guards, so I’m still figuring out his defensive potential. So far, I like what I see.

[exstatic]

I remember Dork on Draft suggested he was slow footed against Hendricks, but in the Adam Spinella YouTube breakdown, Walker appears to be able to stay with lots of smaller guards, so I’m still figuring out his defensive potential. So far, I like what I see.

He does have some tools, but NCAA guards aren't NBA guards. His wingspan is reportedly like 7'2" or 7'3". Kyle Anderson gets by with that even though he has limited mobility.

I just like Hendricks better because he's a far better shooter and likely a better defender at the next level when you add in his shot blocking. Walker shot 35%, which isn't bad, but it was on low attempts, and his FTs are 67%, which is a weak shooting signal.

[mo7888]

I remember Dork on Draft suggested he was slow footed against Hendricks, but in the Adam Spinella YouTube breakdown, Walker appears to be able to stay with lots of smaller guards, so I’m still figuring out his defensive potential. So far, I like what I see.

I don't see his feet as heavy at all... I think if he doesn't watch his weight it could be, but right now he looks light on his feet to me. I think D will be his meal ticket and his upside will be determined by his offensive growth.

[rascal]

So what, Poindexter? They're fine on offense. They kept sitting out all their fucking players. Defense is where they need to improve.

They need to improve on both sides.

[The Truth #6]

Walker vs Hendricks. I like both. Hendricks definitely the better shooter. Hendricks best defensive tool appears to be shot blocking, but Walker is solid too. It feels like Walker gets more on ball blocks and Hendricks has lots of weak side blocks. Walker seems more dogged and competitive, which is probably the most important part if defense, so I give the edge to Walker for now.

As for Walker guarding college point guards, yeah they aren’t NBA players but seems hard to hold that against him if he shows the ability to guard them.

[rjv]

if Hendricks's playmaking skills were just more polished, he'd be perfect. but that'd be some awesome length on the front court if you paired him with Sochan.

[Ariel]

Walker vs Hendricks. I like both. Hendricks definitely the better shooter. Hendricks best defensive tool appears to be shot blocking, but Walker is solid too. It feels like Walker gets more on ball blocks and Hendricks has lots of weak side blocks. Walker seems more dogged and competitive, which is probably the most important part if defense, so I give the edge to Walker for now.

As for Walker guarding college point guards, yeah they aren’t NBA players but seems hard to hold that against him if he shows the ability to guard them.
I'm on Hendricks corner. I think Walker's shorter, stockier frame will make him more of an undersized 4/5 tweener than a modern combo forward, which Hendricks is more like. Also he's taller, younger, faster, a good shooter from 3, I think his game will translate better and he's got more untapped potential and is the better long term bet. If we land at 6/7 and Cam Whitmore is gone, he's my #1 option.

[Ariel]

I remember Dork on Draft suggested he was slow footed against Hendricks, but in the Adam Spinella YouTube breakdown, Walker appears to be able to stay with lots of smaller guards, so I’m still figuring out his defensive potential. So far, I like what I see.
He's not slow footed, but he isn't a ballerina either... watching him live I didn't quite get the same feeling as in highlights. Same for Cason Wallace, who many link to Jrue Holiday and I saw him get beat often at the college level. I trust my eyes more than the YouTube hype, that has Nick Smith and GG Jackson pegged as lottery picks. The clips are useful, but more for the actual content than the conclusions drawn, which are likely quite biased (and, I suspect, a good source of revenue, if you know what I mean...).

[The Truth #6]

I'm on Hendricks corner. I think Walker's shorter, stockier frame will make him more of an undersized 4/5 tweener than a modern combo forward, which Hendricks is more like. Also he's taller, younger, faster, a good shooter from 3, I think his game will translate better and he's got more untapped potential and is the better long term bet. If we land at 6/7 and Cam Whitmore is gone, he's my #1 option.

Totally fair take. I suppose I’m trying to figure out Hendricks’ personality/motivation/demeanor. Hendricks’ physical profile and shooting definitely bodes well but does he have the mentality to be an ultra competitor? I trust Walker that he plays like junkyard dog. Anyway, just speculating.

[rjv]

Totally fair take. I suppose I’m trying to figure out Hendricks’ personality/motivation/demeanor. Hendricks’ physical profile and shooting definitely bodes well but does he have the mentality to be an ultra competitor? I trust Walker that he plays like junkyard dog. Anyway, just speculating.

one of the knocks on hendricks is that he lacks aggressiveness but not sure if that's a product of something outside of his demeanor.

[exstatic]

Totally fair take. I suppose I’m trying to figure out Hendricks’ personality/motivation/demeanor. Hendricks’ physical profile and shooting definitely bodes well but does he have the mentality to be an ultra competitor? I trust Walker that he plays like junkyard dog. Anyway, just speculating.

He went from #59 of ESPN's HS class of 2022 to being a concensus top 10 mock this year, so, yeah, I think he's a worker. No one even saw him as a one and done candidate before this season. He picked a mid major where he knew he would get a lot of burn, betting on himself and winning.

[Mr. Body]

He went from #59 of ESPN's HS class of 2022 to being a concensus top 10 mock this year, so, yeah, I think he's a worker. No one even saw him as a one and done candidate before this season. He picked a mid major where he knew he would get a lot of burn, betting on himself and winning.

Just look at those rankings. Man does ESPN do a shit job. Why do they even bother?

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2022/order/true

[rascal]

Totally fair take. I suppose I’m trying to figure out Hendricks’ personality/motivation/demeanor. Hendricks’ physical profile and shooting definitely bodes well but does he have the mentality to be an ultra competitor? I trust Walker that he plays like junkyard dog. Anyway, just speculating.

Do you want Malik Rose to be this year's lottery pick.

[BackHome]

Walker vs Hendricks. I like both. Hendricks definitely the better shooter. Hendricks best defensive tool appears to be shot blocking, but Walker is solid too. It feels like Walker gets more on ball blocks and Hendricks has lots of weak side blocks. Walker seems more dogged and competitive, which is probably the most important part if defense, so I give the edge to Walker for now.

As for Walker guarding college point guards, yeah they aren’t NBA players but seems hard to hold that against him if he shows the ability to guard them.

Pretty spot on I think both are really good and depending on where we fall would definitely consider them at pick 4 or latter if we get bad draw. Out of the two I would give the defensive edge o Walker he seems to really love playing defense and can really move his feet quite impressive for a guy his size. Don't get me wrong Hendricks can also play defense but i am picking him because of his outside shooting- Before the 3 ball definitely Walker but now you definitely need people who can shoot and he is very good at that and provides some shot blocking and can also guard multiple positions

[The Truth #6]

Do you want Malik Rose to be this year's lottery pick.

Simplistic take. Are you advocating for Hendricks? If so, why? There’s nothing wrong with being competitive. It’s basically what separates potential from success.

[The Truth #6]

Pretty spot on I think both are really good and depending on where we fall would definitely consider them at pick 4 or latter if we get bad draw. Out of the two I would give the defensive edge o Walker he seems to really love playing defense and can really move his feet quite impressive for a guy his size. Don't get me wrong Hendricks can also play defense but i am picking him because of his outside shooting- Before the 3 ball definitely Walker but now you definitely need people who can shoot and he is very good at that and provides some shot blocking and can also guard multiple positions

Hendricks’ shooting is a great skill at a good volume. And he’s athletic obviously. Those are good things. The hope is he develops into more than a role player, but that concern is there for Walker as well. It’s not a perfect scenario if we fall in the draft—we’ll likely be contemplating role players unless you roll the dice on Keyonte George or some other undersized scorer.

[TD 21]

So what, Poindexter? They're fine on offense. They kept sitting out all their fucking players. Defense is where they need to improve.

:lmao This is homer-ism/myopia at its finest/worst.

Virtually the entire league has significant absences regularly now, for one reason or another.

Even when they had close to or a full complement, they still sucked offensively because they lacked every ingredient necessary for a successful one.

[BackHome]

Hendricks’ shooting is a great skill at a good volume. And he’s athletic obviously. Those are good things. The hope is he develops into more than a role player, but that concern is there for Walker as well. It’s not a perfect scenario if we fall in the draft—we’ll likely be contemplating role players unless you roll the dice on Keyonte George or some other undersized scorer.

To be honest it is a roll of the dice just hope we pick the right guy

[exstatic]

Just look at those rankings. Man does ESPN do a shit job. Why do they even bother?

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2022/order/true

A lot of it is AAU/shoe company politics. If you diss their guy, no access for you. That's why I put very little weight behind them. If you're a top 10 HS guy, but you shit the bed in college, I forget all about that top 10 ranking.

[exstatic]

Hendricks’ shooting is a great skill at a good volume. And he’s athletic obviously. Those are good things. The hope is he develops into more than a role player, but that concern is there for Walker as well. It’s not a perfect scenario if we fall in the draft—we’ll likely be contemplating role players unless you roll the dice on Keyonte George or some other undersized scorer.

Of the four lottery domestic big forwards (Miller, Walker, Whitmore, Hendricks) none of them are consistently creative with the ball, either for themselves or others. Only two of them, Miller and Hendricks, show both a strong shooting signal and some defensive signals. Walker and Whitmore both show questionable shooting signals, but they show defensive upside in one way or another.

[Mr. Body]

Of the four lottery domestic big forwards (Miller, Walker, Whitmore, Hendricks) none of them are consistently creative with the ball, either for themselves or others. Only two of them, Miller and Hendricks, show both a strong shooting signal and some defensive signals. Walker and Whitmore both show questionable shooting signals, but they show defensive upside in one way or another.

Worth noting that Whitmore shows no ability to create for his teammates whatsoever.

[exstatic]

Worth noting that Whitmore shows no ability to create for his teammates whatsoever.

He does have the worst Asst/TO ratio of the four, it's a fraction,and that can sometimes be a bust sign. Patrick Williams was one like that, and I'm sure he wasn't what Chicago envisioned when they drafted him at #4.

[Mr. Body]

Here's Tankathon's player page for Whitmore. They have stat plusses and minuses for each prospect, I think procedurally generated. Whitmore's are rough.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/cam-whitmore

[KobesAchilles]

So if we don’t draft Miller then there’s pretty much nobody else to care about. It’s Wemby or bust essentially

[duncan2150]

Really interesting debate between Hendricks and Walker.

I have Hendricks as my second choice with those 6-7 picks and then i have a big group with withmore, ausar, george and maybe black.

as for jarace and taylor both are versatile defensively ( maybe jarace is more ready on D and a better rebounder now), both can shoot but hendricks is more of a natural shooter, jarace is a better passer but both can create a little bit even if they need some work driving to the hoop but hendricks looks to have a higher ceilling.

It's close


For those who want to see more about Hendricks


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47LAe_hIQfk

[exstatic]

So if we don’t draft Miller then there’s pretty much nobody else to care about. It’s Wemby or bust essentially

No, one or some of those forwards may be really good. You just have to be able to project past what they are to what they can be. They’re 19 and raw as hell. You don’t get finished products in the draft these days.

[Mr. Body]

So if we don’t draft Miller then there’s pretty much nobody else to care about. It’s Wemby or bust essentially

Yeah, it's pretty much mass suicide. Cam Whitmore really let us down.

[jjspur]

So if we don’t draft Miller then there’s pretty much nobody else to care about. It’s Wemby or bust essentially

All of the guys mentioned are pretty solid but not terribly special compared to Wemby who is a generational talent. If Wemby wasn't in this draft, would the attitudes about these players change ?

[Mr. Body]

Someone on nba_draft on Reddit posted an interesting Jordan Hawkins stat:

Jordan Hawkins is the only high major player listed at 6'5" or taller to attempt 15 3s per 100 possessions and draw a 30%+ FT rate over the last 10 years.

Basically, he gets to the line a lot for someone taking so many threes. Many of those must be fouls while attempting, I suppose. His free throw rate is very high. Both his and Black's are higher than any of the PF prospects.

[exstatic]

Someone on nba_draft on Reddit posted an interesting Jordan Hawkins stat:

Jordan Hawkins is the only high major player listed at 6'5" or taller to attempt 15 3s per 100 possessions and draw a 30%+ FT rate over the last 10 years.

Basically, he gets to the line a lot for someone taking so many threes. Many of those must be fouls while attempting, I suppose. His free throw rate is very high. Both his and Black's are higher than any of the PF prospects.

Black's is astounding at .578. That's one of the reasons I'm so bullish.

[Mr. Body]

Black's is astounding at .578. That's one of the reasons I'm so bullish.

Agree. It's a favorite stat of mine from this draft class. I'm sure I've mentioned another - Kobe Bufkin makes over .700 of his shot attempts going to the rim, an insane percentage for a guard.

But creating fouls is a big boost, esp in the NBA today. Black is like SGA where he knows how to draw contact and then make it look like he's been murdered with an axe. It's both staying aloft, taking contact, and managing an attempt while contorting the body. Something Malaki is not good at. It's hard to learn how to draw fouls.

[exstatic]

Agree. It's a favorite stat of mine from this draft class. I'm sure I've mentioned another - Kobe Bufkin makes over .700 of his shot attempts going to the rim, an insane percentage for a guard.

But creating fouls is a big boost, esp in the NBA today. Black is like SGA where he knows how to draw contact and then make it look like he's been murdered with an axe. It's both staying aloft, taking contact, and managing an attempt while contorting the body. Something Malaki is not good at. It's hard to learn how to draw fouls.


It’s the hair.

[Vince Carter's ankle]

Jalen Hood-Schifino
https://sun9-65.userapi.com/impg/9z75Hm2ZAFIxg_ocYRocBvbOIWf015S6SWwQ7w/LchSE8dpEAk.jpg?size=450x384&quality=96&sign=542ca7aaf7494f7bbb62949a01da9ecd&type=album

[rascal]

Black's is astounding at .578. That's one of the reasons I'm so bullish.

I like Hawkins more. Hawkins has NBA quickness on his release.

[rascal]

Spurs need to go after that Utah 16th pick in a trade and get Jalen Hood-Shifino.

Maybe even get lucky and get Hawkins there but most likely he'll be gone by 16.

Andre Jackson as a defensive wing player off the bench would be a solid pick at 32/33.

[exstatic]

I like Hawkins more. Hawkins has NBA quickness on his release.

All Hawkins does is shoot. Think of him as a 6’5” Duncan Robinson. When his shot cooled with increased defensive attention, he became one of the worst contracts in the league.

[exstatic]

Jalen Hood-Schifino
https://sun9-65.userapi.com/impg/9z75Hm2ZAFIxg_ocYRocBvbOIWf015S6SWwQ7w/LchSE8dpEAk.jpg?size=450x384&quality=96&sign=542ca7aaf7494f7bbb62949a01da9ecd&type=album

His stat area is no better. Everything is black, average, or red, bad.

[rascal]

All Hawkins does is shoot. Think of him as a 6’5” Duncan Robinson. When his shot cooled with increased defensive attention, he became one of the worst contracts in the league.

He's more like Ray Allen than Duncan Robinson. Watching both of them he has better and smoother mechanics on his shot than Duncan Robinson.

Hawkins is better defensively too. He had 18 blocks this year and is quicker. No where near the same player.

[Mr. Body]

I'd definitely pick up Hawkins if somehow the Spurs get a draft pick for nothing.

Hood-Schifino I'd stay away from. There are things I like about him and I think he'll be fine, but I wouldn't spend draft capital on him.

[Ariel]

I'm going to list my (realistic) targets per range:
4-7: Cam Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black. All guys with solid floors and good potential (above average starter to all star range).
Late lottery(11-14): Keyonte George. I really don't like undersized and inefficient combo guards that don't stand out athletically, which is why he was never an option for our top pick, but he's a skilled guy who can create for himself and others, pass and shoot. If he hits his ceiling he's got the chance to be a first/second option on offense, if he doesn't he's at least a 6th man / scorer off the bench.
Early 20s (or trade up from our 2nd rounder/s): Dariq Whitehead: he's got good size (6'6") and better athleticism than he's given credit for (because he's coming off from injuries), can really score from all levels but also handle the ball and pass some. He's been overlooked mostly as he didn't meet expectations since his role at Duke didn't call for him to do much more than being a spot up shooter (a lot like AJ Griffin) but his repertoire extends beyond that and whoever can see past that is taking a guy who has a legit potential to climb up 10/15 spots in a redraft.
Late first rounders: Dereck Lively (very long center with great defensive instincts and potential as a rim protector, though also very limited offensively), Bilal Coulibaly (very young and athletic 2/3 wing with all around potential, who needs to work on his shot), Rayan Rupert (great 2/3 defensive prospect with freakishly long arms and great instincts, good ballhandler and creator and can get to the basket, but also an awful shooter).
32/33 (many will be gone by our pick, but take whomever falls): Colby Jones, Rayan Rupert, Bilal Coulibaly, Noah Clowney, Strawther, Jaime Jaquez
44: James Nnaji, Adem Bona, Judah Mintz

[Ariel]

He's more like Ray Allen than Duncan Robinson. Watching both of them he has better and smoother mechanics on his shot than Duncan Robinson.

Hawkins is better defensively too. He had 18 blocks this year and is quicker. No where near the same player.
Ray Allen is going overboard, but I do agree he's more complete than Duncan Robinson and his ability to shoot in motion and do it lightning fast makes him a very intriguing prospect.

[Mr. Body]

UConn used to turn out really good guards and forwards. Ray Allen, Ben Gordon, Rudy Gay, Caron Butler, Richard Hamilton. More recently they turned out... James Bouknight.

[rascal]

UConn used to turn out really good guards and forwards. Ray Allen, Ben Gordon, Rudy Gay, Caron Butler, Richard Hamilton. More recently they turned out... James Bouknight.

Kemba Walker, Clifford Robinson

[exstatic]

Kemba Walker, Clifford Robinson

Clifford Robinson was 33 years ago. His point was that UC hasn’t produced much in the way of shooters LATELY.

[Mr. Body]

Under Calhoun they seemed to churn out a good number in a span, like how Lute Olsen used to churn out good guards at Arizona.

[Uriel]

Reminder that a 14% chance at Wembanyama means an 86% that we don’t get Wembanyama. In fact, we’re almost twice as likely to get pick #6 as pick #1.

The expected value of our draft pick is 4.1. So at this point, our best guess of where the Spurs will end up picking in the draft is #4.

[rjv]

Reminder that a 14% chance at Wembanyama means an 86% that we don’t get Wembanyama. In fact, we’re almost twice as likely to get pick #6 as pick #1.

The expected value of our draft pick is 4.1. So at this point, our best guess of where the Spurs will end up picking in the draft is #4.

spurs were supposed to get ron mercer, too. (for the record, i'm just letting the chips fall where they may, so anything from 1-7.)

[Mr. Body]

Reminder that a 14% chance at Wembanyama means an 86% that we don’t get Wembanyama. In fact, we’re almost twice as likely to get pick #6 as pick #1.

The expected value of our draft pick is 4.1. So at this point, our best guess of where the Spurs will end up picking in the draft is #4.

Yes. Just don't expect to get Wembanyama. I just don't want him to go to OKC or Dallas or Houston and a couple others. We need to plan and expect to get somewhere around #4.

[Ariel]

Reminder that a 14% chance at Wembanyama means an 86% that we don’t get Wembanyama. In fact, we’re almost twice as likely to get pick #6 as pick #1.

The expected value of our draft pick is 4.1. So at this point, our best guess of where the Spurs will end up picking in the draft is #4.
That's the average pick if you run the lottery a large enough number of times, not the most likely spot, which is 6, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 (from most to least likely). So 4th is the 2nd least likely out of all possible results.

[tonight...you]

Reminder that a 14% chance at Wembanyama means an 86% that we don’t get Wembanyama. In fact, we’re almost twice as likely to get pick #6 as pick #1.

The expected value of our draft pick is 4.1. So at this point, our best guess of where the Spurs will end up picking in the draft is #4.
Depressing

[offset formation]

Reminder that a 14% chance at Wembanyama means an 86% that we don’t get Wembanyama. In fact, we’re almost twice as likely to get pick #6 as pick #1.

The expected value of our draft pick is 4.1. So at this point, our best guess of where the Spurs will end up picking in the draft is #4.

Absolutely ridiculous what the NBA draft lottery does to the worst teams.

[Uriel]

That's the average pick if you run the lottery a large enough number of times, not the most likely spot, which is 6, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 (from most to least likely). So 4th is the 2nd least likely out of all possible results.
Yes, expected values calculate the mean, not the mode.

[K...]

Absolutely ridiculous what the NBA draft lottery does to the worst teams.

its gonna be a boon though for when the spurs don't tank, which could be next year.

[scott]

That's the average pick if you run the lottery a large enough number of times, not the most likely spot, which is 6, 5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 (from most to least likely). So 4th is the 2nd least likely out of all possible results.

Of course true, but also misleading. Yes, 6th is the "most likely" landing spot, but it is still nearly 3x more likely it will NOT be 6th and a 67% chance it will be higher than 6. For that reason, IMO, EV remains the best way of looking at it going in, especially since the Spurs have a >50% chance of exceeding EV.

[scott]

Absolutely ridiculous what the NBA draft lottery does to the worst teams.

I was thinking more about this the other day - it really is kind of stupid the way the lottery is set up. The 4 worst teams have diminishing outcome curves from 1-4, then pick 1-4 flatten for Team 5, and then they are increasing curves for everyone else. (Meaning, for the 4 worst teams, their best odds of a 1-4 pick are for pick 1, then the odds decrease as you move to pick 4. Team 5 has the same odds of picks 1-4, and then the rest of the teams their best odds of 1-4 are 4, and the odds diminish as you move to pick 1). I'm trying to understand the logic of why they did it this way as it creates more of an "all or nothing" scenario for the worst teams relative to the top 4 picks (though not relative to other teams).

We are talking about a relatively minute impact on the results, but still a real one... and I can't rationalize why the game was set up with this payout structure.

[Ariel]

Of course true, but also misleading. Yes, 6th is the "most likely" landing spot, but it is still nearly 3x more likely it will NOT be 6th and a 67% chance it will be higher than 6. For that reason, IMO, EV remains the best way of looking at it going in, especially since the Spurs have a >50% chance of exceeding EV.
I think you're confusing expected and median value (for example, no. 9 has 80% chance of picking worse than expected value). But anyway I was refuting the notion that since the expected value is 4.1 you should focus on the 4th spot, when it isn't even the most likely spot should you make such a reductionist approach. For the record, I don't think the way of looking at it is being fixated on any one spot, simply being aware that it may come in any of a range and being prepared for ALL options. Since #1 is obvious and at least one player is bound to jump, putting together a non Wemby top 4/5 is likely all you need.

[Ariel]

Yes, expected values calculate the mean, not the mode.
So no reason to pay particular attention to it.

[scott]

I think you're confusing expected and median value (for example, no. 9 has 80% chance of picking worse than expected value). But anyway I was refuting the notion that since the expected value is 4.1 you should focus on the 4th spot, when it isn't even the most likely spot should you make such a reductionist approach. For the record, I don't think the way of looking at it is being fixated on any one spot, simply being aware that it may come in any of a range and being prepared for ALL options. Since #1 is obvious and at least one player is bound to jump, putting together a non Wemby top 4/5 is likely all you need.

I'm not confusing anything. Expected value is the same as mean value. EV is the simplest way of expressing the risk-adjusted result of a range of uncertain outcomes to anyone who understands it. Of course, the NBA lottery is a one-shot game, so the long-run average outcome bears no meaning - EV is just a way of expressing the sum of all of the probability of all the outcomes.

Yes, the 9 team has an 80% chance of finishing below EV, because that's how EV works. The 7th team has an EV of 6.4 despite the fact that they are barred from the 6th pick. That doesn't make EV any less insightful, especially when paired with the probability of the outcome being above or below the EV. "You have an EV of 13.7, but a 97.6% of finishing below EV" is a quite informative statement to someone who understands basic statistics and the game being played, even without knowing the specifics of the payout structure. It tells me that I have a very low chance of finishing with an outcome significantly higher than the most common outcome.

The median value is worthless and I don't care about it, because it is not adjusted for probability. The Spurs EV and their median value just happen to be the roughly the same because of the way the NBA built the odds (the same is true of teams 4 and 5).

Anyway, because this is a one shot game none of this matters, they'll just tell us on May 16 and this particular set of odds becomes irrelevant to anything ever again in the history of humankind.

I don't know enough about how NBA scouting works, but I'd presume that they'd scout every player they felt was a viable NBA player to some degree, since they'll eventually play against them or have an opportunity to sign them as free agents/trade for them?

[scott]

So no reason to pay particular attention to it.

tbh, this can be said of the entire odds table. The Spurs will pick somewhere 1-7. They have the highest odds possible for #1, 2, 3 and 4. Anything other than that, there is no real reason to pay attention to it. It's a one shot game with zero ability to influence the outcome. From here, just sit back and enjoy the bitter taste of disappointment come 5/16

[Mr. Body]

Dariq Whitehead to undergo another foot surgery. His team claims he'll be ready for the regular season. Man, going from a top 10 lock pre-season to maybe sliding out of the 1st round?

I think some team will take him with a late FRP.

[Ariel]

Dariq Whitehead to undergo another foot surgery. His team claims he'll be ready for the regular season. Man, going from a top 10 lock pre-season to maybe sliding out of the 1st round?

I think some team will take him with a late FRP.
Interesting development. It will likely cost him to slip some more, I agree mid to late 20s sounds likely (rebuilding, small market teams with multiple late first like Indiana and Utah come to mind). Again, another guy who I'd like to take a flyer on, very good shooter but not limited to that, if healthy he's plenty athletic, he's got good positional size. The Spurs should do their due diligence on his health situation, but this looks like a potential high reward guy with a low pick, I'd definitely look to move up a few spots from 32/33 and grab him.

[BackHome]

If this is true it will cost him going first round unless a team with multiple picks wants to take a chance on him. I never had him in the top ten or considered picking him because he was coming off a broken foot and I don’t want to waste a high pick with someone with foot issues. If he is going to have a second surgery on his foot I am sure that is a major red flag for a lot of teams as one of his main traits is being explosive ie. dunks, taking it hard to the rim, high flyer which creates more impact in his feet.

[heyheymymy]

IND UTA and CHA all have those additional picks late first and as such might be ideal candidates to burn a pick for a swing on Dariq Whitehead. He could easily fall out of the first but there are a few late nets there that might catch him before doing so.

[tonight...you]

Interesting development. It will likely cost him to slip some more, I agree mid to late 20s sounds likely (rebuilding, small market teams with multiple late first like Indiana and Utah come to mind). Again, another guy who I'd like to take a flyer on, very good shooter but not limited to that, if healthy he's plenty athletic, he's got good positional size. The Spurs should do their due diligence on his health situation, but this looks like a potential high reward guy with a low pick, I'd definitely look to move up a few spots from 32/33 and grab him.
Man... multiple foot surgeries?
I'd be extremely wary.

[rascal]

Maybe worth the gamble if drafting Whitehead late.

Denver took a chance on Michael Porter Jr. and that's worked out well for them so sometimes you have to take a swing on the talent.

[duncan2150]

Dariq Whitehead to undergo another foot surgery. His team claims he'll be ready for the regular season. Man, going from a top 10 lock pre-season to maybe sliding out of the 1st round?

I think some team will take him with a late FRP.

One interesting thing about dariq is that he kept shooting well from distance despite being injured all year

totally worth a late pick, still a top 5 talent imo

[Ariel]

Man... multiple foot surgeries?
I'd be extremely wary.
Oh, definitely. But it can be argued both ways: if he was hampered with a lingering injury all along, then his production can be reasonably assumed to have suffered as a result. The key thing here is properly assessing his medical issue, and this is something the Spurs have done with great success recently with Zach Collins. In any case I'm not advising against caution (due diligence is definitely required), but if this causes a lottery talent to fall within reach (early second / late first), then it'd be foolish not to take a long, hard look at him. And if there's reason to believe he'll be back healthy, that's a gamble worth taking. That's what low firsts / early seconds are for.

[tonight...you]

Oh, definitely. But it can be argued both ways: if he was hampered with a lingering injury all along, then his production can be reasonably assumed to have suffered as a result. The key thing here is properly assessing his medical issue, and this is something the Spurs have done with great success recently with Zach Collins. In any case I'm not advising against caution (due diligence is definitely required), but if this causes a lottery talent to fall within reach (early second / late first), then it'd be foolish not to take a long, hard look at him. And if there's reason to believe he'll be back healthy, that's a gamble worth taking. That's what low firsts / early seconds are for.
I can agree. High risk, but potentially high reward.

[Ariel]

IND UTA and CHA all have those additional picks late first and as such might be ideal candidates to burn a pick for a swing on Dariq Whitehead. He could easily fall out of the first but there are a few late nets there that might catch him before doing so.
Definitely. Charlotte seems to not like risks too much, but I'd bet good money he's going to Indy or Utah at worst, meaning a trade up would be required (even if for a few spots), and if some team in the mid 20s doesn't want to take on guaranteed salary, then 33 + 44 + maybe an extra second rounder or two might be enough.

[Dejounte]

https://youtu.be/XGNoZvtBXzs

Hendricks has no shot creation to speak of. The opposite of what the Spurs need right now tbh. If anyone watches this long vid (i encourage it), you’ll notice he barely has the ball in his hands and when he does, he only takes a one or two dribbles before shooting. The Spurs should have higher expectations from their top pick being a catch and shoot player. At least Jarace Walker has some semblance of a mid range game.

[exstatic]

https://youtu.be/XGNoZvtBXzs

Hendricks has no shot creation to speak of. The opposite of what the Spurs need right now tbh. If anyone watches this long vid (i encourage it), you’ll notice he barely has the ball in his hands and when he does, he only takes a one or two dribbles before shooting. The Spurs should have higher expectations from their top pick being a catch and shoot player. At least Jarace Walker has some semblance of a mid range game.

It would be terrible to draft the best shooting PF in the draft. Instead, let’s draft the one with the worst shooting signal of the four domestic PF prospects, because 3 point shooting doesn’t matter in the NBA.

[Dejounte]

It would be terrible to draft the best shooting PF in the draft. Instead, let’s draft the one with the worst shooting signal of the four domestic PF prospects, because 3 point shooting doesn’t matter in the NBA.

You’re doing that thing again where you’re honing in on one aspect of a player than the player as a whole, and that IMO, is a mistake when you’re drafting this high. It’s important that the player selected this high has a roadmap to become a complete player vs one that’s harder to see get there. You don’t just gain dribbling skills or shot creating skills, that’s usually inherent. Yeah, you could come away with the “best” shooting PF (whose numbers aren’t even historical or significant enough that it’s comparable to past greats) but what else? It’s a bad draft philosophy to try to get a player who is unlikely to develop into much more than a catch and shoot player. You have to aim higher.

What the hell is the goal if all we’re aiming for are catch and shoot players when the Spurs just had a horrid season? That would be a disappointment to the fans and the Spurs are doing everything they can to appease the fans.

[exstatic]

You’re doing that thing again where you’re honing in on one aspect of a player than the player as a whole, and that IMO, is a mistake when you’re drafting this high. It’s important that the player selected this high has a roadmap to become a complete player vs one that’s harder to see get there. You don’t just gain dribbling skills or shot creating skills, that’s usually inherent. Yeah, you could come away with the “best” shooting PF (whose numbers aren’t even historical or significant enough that it’s comparable to past greats) but what else? It’s a bad draft philosophy to try to get a player who is unlikely to develop into much more than a catch and shoot player. You have to aim higher. What the hell is the goal if all we’re aiming for are catch and shoot players when the Spurs just a horrid season?

You honed in on one area of Hendricks’ game. Are you THAT self blind?

Here’s an exercise for you, DJ. Go to TaT and plug in the 4 big forwards into the player comparison page, Miller, Hendricks, Walker, Whitmore, and scroll over ALL of the stats, counting and advanced. Red dots mean the lowest value of the four, green dots are the highest.

[Dejounte]

You honed in on one area of Hendricks’ game. Are you THAT self blind?

Here’s an exercise for you, DJ. Go to TaT and plug in the 4 big forwards into the player comparison page, Miller, Hendricks, Walker, Whitmore, and scroll over ALL of the stats, counting and advanced. Red dots mean the lowest value of the four, green dots are the highest.

Self creation involves many parts: dribbling, athleticism, ability to pull up off the dribble, ISO moves, basketball IQ to make reads when to make a pass or shoot.

Here’s typically the problem with your player assessment of draft prospects: you rely on numbers as your end-all, be-all source to dictate what you feel about players.

[exstatic]

Self creation involves many parts: dribbling, athleticism, ability to pull up off the dribble, ISO moves, basketball IQ to make reads when to make a pass or shoot.

Here’s typically the problem with your player assessment of draft prospects: you rely on numbers as your end-all, be-all source to dictate what you feel about players.

And you discount them almost completely. Most videos are highlights.

[Dejounte]

And you discount them almost completely. Most videos are highlights.

Wrong on both accounts. I probably spend the most time here watching full games (hard to find, btw) and I literally just posted a 1+ hour video showing most, if not all, shot attempts, defensive possessions of Taylor Hendricks…which you will not spend a minute of your time watching because you’re so caught up in your stats.

and you couldn’t be more wrong about me being dismissive of stats. That’s part of my real-life profession— I’m involved in BI, combining my data analytics (with my engineering background) with SQL to get the most out of business metrics.

[exstatic]

Wrong on both accounts. I probably spend the most time here watching full games (hard to find, btw) and I literally just posted a 1+ hour video showing most, if not all, shot attempts, defensive possessions of Taylor Hendricks…which you will not spend a minute of your time watching because you’re so caught up in your stats.

and you couldn’t be more wrong about me being dismissive of stats. That’s part of my real-life profession— I’m involved in BI, combining my data analytics (with my engineering background) with SQL to get the most out of business metrics.

Did you do the comparison yet?

[Dejounte]

Did you do the comparison yet?

Ah, I see where this conversation is going… it’s time to deflect time! I’ve already told you my opinion on that.

[exstatic]

Ah, I see where this conversation is going… it’s time to deflect time! I’ve already told you my opinion on that.

BI guy won’t look at stats, wide ranging and diverse stats. Got it.

[Dejounte]

BI guy won’t look at stats, wide ranging and diverse stats. Got it.

I’ve looked at it a long time ago, way before you ever did. It’s the first thing I do when I look at players. The difference between me and you is, I don’t let that stop me from researching further about a player and let it sway my opinion 100%. You have a mind block that makes it harder to comprehend that a player could ever be/ become good if the stats don’t say it.

It just takes a little bit more effort if you’re actually serious about this thing.

[exstatic]

I’ve looked at it a long time ago, way before you ever did. It’s the first thing I do when I look at players. The difference between me and you is, I don’t let that stop me from researching further about a player and let it sway my opinion 100%. You have a mind block that makes it harder to comprehend that a player could ever be/ become good if the stats don’t say it.

It just takes a little bit more effort if you’re actually serious about this thing.

If I were just about the numbers, I’d be pimping Zach Edey. He crushes advanced stats, but I understand that the mismatches he creates are for 2 points, and the mismatches he can be put into are for 3 points. His game isn’t the modern game for his position, and he would be problematic in the NBA.

You talk about what a player can be, but you pin Taylor on what he is now. What I see is a player who was ranked #46 on RSCI, not even on the radar as a one and done, who crushed it. He wasn’t a good shooter in HS, but he is now, the best college shooter of the 4 domestic big forwards. Of those top 100 RSCI players, he finished 2nd in WS, behind only Miller. He’s obviously got room to grow, but he’s shown that he CAN grow. That, in itself, is a skill. I wouldn’t bet against him acquiring any of those skills he lacks, and in fact would bet on it. He’s got the shot and the defense to buy minutes on the Spurs, like Kawhi did. How far will Taylor go? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t bet on him topping out as a catch and shoot 4. He’s shown that he won’t be put into anyone’s boxes.

[duncan2150]

https://twitter.com/P3sportscience/status/1655988760474169344

Don't forget this guy

[duncan2150]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqOAVQTXqd4

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

[rascal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqOAVQTXqd4

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

His ceiling is good college player.

[rascal]

Andre Jackson for the spurs second round pick. Good team player and tough defender.

The second round pick is where you focus on a more defensive minded player.

The first round you target a player with extreme athleticism and upside offensive potential.

[PhantomDashCam]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqOAVQTXqd4

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

I'm a big fan of this guy too. I love the way he processes the game. Think he'll be a coach's favorite player before long. He reminds me of a taller Derrick White, sans jumper (so San Antonio D. White, lol...j/k).
Not sure if he has what it takes to be a lead guard in the NBA but I think he'll have a solid career.

[heyheymymy]

https://twitter.com/P3sportscience/status/1655988760474169344

Don't forget this guy

"That was not difficult"

[heyheymymy]

agreed rascal

I like that call for Andre Jackson Jr. with #33

[BacktoBasics]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqOAVQTXqd4

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling toughThis is the pick if we’re anywhere outside of 4. I really like this kid.

[Ariel]

agreed rascal

I like that call for Andre Jackson Jr. with #33
Pass, his inability to shoot is too much of a handicap nowadays, I'm hoping for a higher ceiling prospect available at 33 or a trade up into the mid 20s. I'd consider him at 44 though.

[Ariel]

This is the pick if we’re anywhere outside of 4. I really like this kid.
Me too, but I have Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Whitmore and Hendricks before him.

[heyheymymy]

Pass, his inability to shoot is too much of a handicap nowadays, I'm hoping for a higher ceiling prospect available at 33 or a trade up into the mid 20s. I'd consider him at 44 though.

Yeah he looked admittedly very subdued in the tourney for sure but carries himself well, hard to ignore his pedigree and I like the potential and he was kinda always a subtle plus in the flow of things. Seems like the type SA could fashion into a steal granted minimal expectations. Tank has him a bit in between the 33 and the 44 so if you somehow want him he might not last till our later 2nd.

But I agree, 33 has the chance to net some falling goods and in that case obvs let's catch the sure thing. But Jackson Jr is on the stretch there around 33 with TJ-D, Straw, Podziemski and perhaps a few others where I'm including him in that batch though to your point I prefer Jackson Jr maybe the least of those usual suspects and then if you can get an unexpected dream faller from the late first well even better and that's a no brainier.

[Mr. Body]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqOAVQTXqd4

Scouting just in of Mr body and exastic guy : Anthony Black

really interesting prospect, could develop into a special player with his good IQ, lenght, defensive awareness ....i'm not too concerned about the shoot as he can make them ( same impression as sochan last year for me) but he needs some work

could be in the mix if we pick at 6-7, difficult to know the ceilling tough

I agre about his ceiling. It's hard to project where he'll wind up, but then in this draft class he's either plus or plus/plus in two major areas -- perimeter defense and passing. There might be better at either skill, but he's at least in the mix for the best at both. He's simply a playmaker on both sides.

His reads on offense are often exceptional, meaning he sees advantages very quickly when they happen or are about to happen. Can he add playmaking skills to this, setting up PnRs and so on? Definitely think so. And then on defense he can be majorly disruptive. His on-ball defense is the sort the team needs badly, a lengthy guard who is relentless over screens, walls up while moving, and just doesn't stop guarding. He's also superb on helps and won't have any problem learning his rotations. He's a pest digging balls in his area.

The knocks on him are these:

- He's not athletic
- He's not strong
- He's a bad shooter

The first two are false. He has good athleticism. Far from a Jared Dudley, he's really undersold in this regard. More, his movement in open lateral space is very good. He's also much stronger than many think. His strength is in his legs, actually: he's much sturdier than expected, with a really great mobile base. And then strong in the trunk, which helps him get 5 FTA/G, higher than most of the bigs in this draft.

I think he'll be a top 5 player in the class in only a few short years. I would pick him over the Thompsons without hesitation. I just need to think about Jarace and Hendricks. I'd definitely put him over Whitmore. He just knows the game better: I've read analysis pointing out how steal percentage has a high correlation to success in the NBA. There are exceptions, where a player rating high in this stat doesn't have the physical tools to excel in the NBA. Or players who had high steal percentages who didn't become good NBA defenders, like James Harden, but then he excelled everywhere else. The suggestion is the score may show a good knack for the game.

Cam Whitmore has a very high 3.2 steal percentage, which keeps having me hang around in my ratings. (It's other areas where I dislike him so much and makes me think this is an outlier.) Somewhere around a 2.3-2.5 is a good defensive player/someone who reads the game well. Many players are in the 1.5% range. Anthony Black is at a 3.4% at the end of the year.

The way drafts get inertia in how players are regarded, plus how ceiling/potential are regarded, Black is going to be picked in the mid-lottery maybe into 10 or 11. To me that will be a mistake. While I'm not as positive as I was last year on Sochan, who I thought might become one of the top 3-5 players in his draft class over time, I'm not entirely sure on Black. His advanced stats don't quite tell the same story. But what I see is at very minimum a very high level starter and role-player in his career, a Derrick White connector and superior defender, although their games are a bit different. And obviously he's like five years younger coming into the draft than White was. Ceiling, though, is a gamer, a fighter, a competitor who will do what it takes to win and is All-Star caliber.

Also, he's fun to watch. He's like Manu where he makes plays on both ends of the court that are just a joy to watch.

[rascal]

Pass, his inability to shoot is too much of a handicap nowadays, I'm hoping for a higher ceiling prospect available at 33 or a trade up into the mid 20s. I'd consider him at 44 though.

You aren't getting a high offensive player at 33. You get that with the first round pick.

You're getting a solid defender non starter rotation player with that 33 pick.

[rascal]

Yeah he looked admittedly very subdued in the tourney for sure but carries himself well, hard to ignore his pedigree and I like the potential and he was kinda always a subtle plus in the flow of things. Seems like the type SA could fashion into a steal granted minimal expectations. Tank has him a bit in between the 33 and the 44 so if you somehow want him he might not last till our later 2nd.

But I agree, 33 has the chance to net some falling goods and in that case obvs let's catch the sure thing. But Jackson Jr is on the stretch there around 33 with TJ-D, Straw, Podziemski and perhaps a few others where I'm including him in that batch though to your point I prefer Jackson Jr maybe the least of those usual suspects and then if you can get an unexpected dream faller from the late first well even better and that's a no brainier.

He won't last to 44 and even might go in the first round. I think he's going to show well in try outs and the combine and interview as a winnning type of team player.

A solid rotation player coming off the bench.

I like him more than Podziemski, one dimensional shooter, too slow overall, can't get to the rim to finish and a defensive liability, quicker players blow right past him, if his 3 point shot is not falling does little else. He's not a starter quality player so just stick with Jackson who has a better all around game outside of perimeter shooting.

[Ariel]

https://twitter.com/P3sportscience/status/1655988760474169344
1655988760474169344
https://twitter.com/P3sportscience/status/1655994514388164611
1655994514388164611

[tonight...you]

https://twitter.com/P3sportscience/status/1655988760474169344
1655988760474169344
https://twitter.com/P3sportscience/status/1655994514388164611
1655994514388164611
What was this guy's issue?
It was passing, right?

[rascal]

What was this guy's issue?
It was passing, right?

Why pass when you're the best player on the floor.

[Mr. Body]

What was this guy's issue?
It was passing, right?

His basketball skills are still pretty rudimentary.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/cam-whitmore

[Ariel]

His basketball skills are still pretty rudimentary.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/cam-whitmore
His basketball skills are not rudimentary, he's very good at creating his shot, with adequate ball handling and a nasty crossover, has very good footwork and is crafty around the basket with a good repertoire of moves, he's a freight train of a slasher and excellent at finishing through contact, reads defenses well and is a good cutter, great in transition, has improved a lot as a shooter with the ability to shoot the 3 though his release isn't fast, is an active defender with lateral quickness and a good read of passing lanes that gets a good number of steals.
On the negative side right now he isn't a good passer, I chalk low AS/TO ratio to his tendency to finish everything by himself leading to too many turnovers, he needs to play more within the flow of the offense and to take advantage of his teammates, but that can improve in time with proper coaching which the Spurs have, kind of like Jaylen Brown did. If he measures well at the combine (over 6'6" barefoot with good wingspan) I think he's an excellent option if we don't strike gold in the lottery.

[Mr. Body]

His basketball skills are not rudimentary, he's very good at creating his shot, with adequate ball handling and a nasty crossover, has very good footwork and is crafty around the basket with a good repertoire of moves, he's a freight train of a slasher and excellent at finishing through contact, reads defenses well and is a good cutter, great in transition, has improved a lot as a shooter with the ability to shoot the 3 though his release isn't fast, is an active defender with lateral quickness and a good read of passing lanes that gets a good number of steals.
On the negative side right now he isn't a good passer, I chalk low AS/TO ratio to his tendency to finish everything by himself leading to too many turnovers, he needs to play more within the flow of the offense and to take advantage of his teammates, but that can improve in time with proper coaching which the Spurs have, kind of like Jaylen Brown did. If he measures well at the combine (over 6'6" barefoot with good wingspan) I think he's an excellent option if we don't strike gold in the lottery.

Yeah, his skills are pretty rudimentary. If basketball was played 1-on-1 he'd be better. It's not. If he's considered a PF, his rebounding is low, he doesn't block shots, he doesn't get to the free throw line, he doesn't impact winning, and the excuses for his very poor AST/TO stats and AST/USG stats don't really make much sense. If you watched him, you saw a player who forces things because he's tunnel visioned and doesn't have a good grasp on what teammates can do.

I can see him pop above the Thompsons if people fall in love with his athleticism. I don't rank him as high as all that. You're basically drafting Keldon Johnson and we already have Keldon Johnson.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cam-whitmore--keldon-johnson

[Vince Carter's ankle]

Why pass when you're the best player on the floor.
first of all, this is a stupid take
secondly, he just can't pass and has tunnel vision

he also has an inconsistent shot and doesn't get many free throws
mediocre basketball player, good athlete
no wonder you rate him highly

[duncan2150]

What was this guy's issue?
It was passing, right?

Passing and non existent mid range game, he's a slasher and can shoot the 3 actually. I will not be as harsh as Mr Body but yes he's actually a little bit rudimentary in a good way : athlet who can slash and shoot, imo his ballhandling is heavy but really interesting and improving ( agreed with Ariel on this one).

He has a big upside imo

[exstatic]

Yeah, his skills are pretty rudimentary. If basketball was played 1-on-1 he'd be better. It's not. If he's considered a PF, his rebounding is low, he doesn't block shots, he doesn't get to the free throw line, he doesn't impact winning, and the excuses for his very poor AST/TO stats and AST/USG stats don't really make much sense. If you watched him, you saw a player who forces things because he's tunnel visioned and doesn't have a good grasp on what teammates can do.

I can see him pop above the Thompsons if people fall in love with his athleticism. I don't rank him as high as all that. You're basically drafting Keldon Johnson and we already have Keldon Johnson.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cam-whitmore--keldon-johnson

Keldon was even on TOs and assists, shot better from 3, and rebounded better as a SF than Cam does as a PF.

[rascal]

first of all, this is a stupid take
secondly, he just can't pass and has tunnel vision

he also has an inconsistent shot and doesn't get many free throws
mediocre basketball player, good athlete
no wonder you rate him highly

Get a sense of humor.

[rascal]

Passing and non existent mid range game, he's a slasher and can shoot the 3 actually. I will not be as harsh as Mr Body but yes he's actually a little bit rudimentary in a good way : athlet who can slash and shoot, imo his ballhandling is heavy but really interesting and improving ( agreed with Ariel on this one).

He has a big upside imo

Passing the ball is the easiest thing to get better at.

Speed, quickness and athleticism is the hardest, you naturally either have those skills or you don't.

[rascal]

Yeah, his skills are pretty rudimentary. If basketball was played 1-on-1 he'd be better. It's not. If he's considered a PF, his rebounding is low, he doesn't block shots, he doesn't get to the free throw line, he doesn't impact winning, and the excuses for his very poor AST/TO stats and AST/USG stats don't really make much sense. If you watched him, you saw a player who forces things because he's tunnel visioned and doesn't have a good grasp on what teammates can do.

I can see him pop above the Thompsons if people fall in love with his athleticism. I don't rank him as high as all that. You're basically drafting Keldon Johnson and we already have Keldon Johnson.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cam-whitmore--keldon-johnson

He's a SF at 6'6", not a PF.

[rascal]

Keldon was even on TOs and assists, shot better from 3, and rebounded better as a SF than Cam does as a PF.

Cam is a SF not a PF.

[Mr. Body]

He's a SF at 6'6", not a PF.

I agree that Whitmore is a SF, but he's listed as a PF in many places. Regardless, Keldon Johnson may have been a better prospect than Whitmore is. He's simply ranked too high in my estimation.

[duncan2150]

Passing the ball is the easiest thing to get better at.

Speed, quickness and athleticism is the hardest, you naturally either have those skills or you don't.

Agreed

Shooting is also a difficult thing to really improve but that's not the case for Withmore. On the other hand the feel for the game is not something you could have and improve easily and that could be a concern for him.

[Mr. Body]

Eh... we know that passing isn't simply 'passing,' right? You have to see the floor as an environment where very athletic and talented bodies are moving in space and reading by body position and movement whether they can access your pass or not and then instantly deciding to make that pass. If you've played basketball at any competitive level, you know sometimes you'll make a pass without fully deciding to: your concept of space and availability makes it for you. The game is so fast and dynamic at the NBA level that you need to have exceptionally sophisticated processing and vision.

In any case, we're not talking about a bunch of five year-olds practicing bounce passes in an empty gym. We're talking the ability to see what is available in extremely narrow and changing moments.

I'm not going to say that Whitmore can't develop some passing skills, but he did look like a guy that has very poor skills, as in not even seeing dump-offs for better positioned players under the basket as he was driving.

There's a reason I bring up Keldon -- Keldon has tunnel vision when he's driving, too. Not as bad, but if he's not shooting a three, he's going all the way to the basket. Tunnel vision is sometimes selfishness. Sometimes it's just not being able to register and define options other than the primary goal of your movement.

Watching Whitmore, I think it's a combination of selfishness and inability to process not trying to bash the ball into what his primary goal is. That's not something easy to learn not to do and in many cases is impossible.

[Ariel]

Eh... we know that passing isn't simply 'passing,' right? You have to see the floor as an environment where very athletic and talented bodies are moving in space and reading by body position and movement whether they can access your pass or not and then instantly deciding to make that pass. If you've played basketball at any competitive level, you know sometimes you'll make a pass without fully deciding to: your concept of space and availability makes it for you. The game is so fast and dynamic at the NBA level that you need to have exceptionally sophisticated processing and vision.

In any case, we're not talking about a bunch of five year-olds practicing bounce passes in an empty gym. We're talking the ability to see what is available in extremely narrow and changing moments.

I'm not going to say that Whitmore can't develop some passing skills, but he did look like a guy that has very poor skills, as in not even seeing dump-offs for better positioned players under the basket as he was driving.

There's a reason I bring up Keldon -- Keldon has tunnel vision when he's driving, too. Not as bad, but if he's not shooting a three, he's going all the way to the basket. Tunnel vision is sometimes selfishness. Sometimes it's just not being able to register and define options other than the primary goal of your movement.

Watching Whitmore, I think it's a combination of selfishness and inability to process not trying to bash the ball into what his primary goal is. That's not something easy to learn not to do and in many cases is impossible.
It depends on WHY you aren't passing, and I think his blackhole mindset has a lot to do with that, rather than being unable to recognize the right move at any given time. Of course I don't think he's Sochan, but I have a lot more confidence in him learning to at least kick out more often when overmatched at just 18, than the Thompsons learning to shoot at 20 when reportedly they've been working on it A LOT already with little to nothing to show for it. A lot was made of Tari Eason's poor bball IQ last year, and he did just fine. Cam is a hybrid forward like him, and since there is no sure fire prospect at that range I'll take my chances with him over a lot of the alternatives
You can make a list of every player's concerns, they all have one or more:
Wemby: health
Scoot: shooting, finishing, size, ego
Miller: character, finishing, performance under pressure.
Cam: passing and or bball iq (if you think that's the cause)
Hendricks: putting the ball on the floor, creating his shot
Black: shooting, ceiling
Thompsons: everything
it's pick your poison.

[rascal]

I look for athleticism( quickness getting past a defender and ability to finish at the rim-explosiveness and power, jumping ability, dribbling ability and handle) how a player looks with lateral quickness and has the ability to get off the ground to pose a shot blocking threat as a defender and does he have a quick release on his shot and good shooting form. Cam checks all those boxes

[exstatic]

I look for athleticism( quickness getting past a defender and ability to finish at the rim-explosiveness and power, jumping ability, dribbling ability and handle) how a player looks with lateral quickness and has the ability to get off the ground to pose a shot blocking threat as a defender and does he have a quick release on his shot and good shooting form. Cam checks all those boxes

0.3 blocks. Not exactly checking that box. His rebounding is for shit, too.

jumping
high
isn't
everything

[The Truth #6]

I’ve seen some videos where I wonder if Cam is actually able to get by players with his dribble. Being so insanely strong perhaps it’s less of an issue. I know he can jump super high. But I’ve seen clips that make me wonder about his lateral quickness. Among with other reasons mentioned I have some doubts about him and his overall functional athleticism (not just jumping high and destroying the rim), but I’m happy to change my mind if convinced otherwise.

[Mr. Body]

I’ve seen some videos where I wonder if Cam is actually able to get by players with his dribble. Being so insanely strong perhaps it’s less of an issue. I know he can jump super high. But I’ve seen clips that make me wonder about his lateral quickness. Among with other reasons mentioned I have some doubts about him and his overall functional athleticism (not just jumping high and destroying the rim), but I’m happy to change my mind if convinced otherwise.

Was going to say. His lateral quickness isn't all that good, in fact is pretty basic for a SF at best. If he's a PF, it's not quite as bad. To be sure, he's very strong and he can jump real high. I'm not sure the strength will come through against NBA caliber players as much but the jumping ability will help.

One thing that keeps getting me about Whitmore is that his steals per game are nice, but his advanced defensive metrics aren't all that great. In fact, Gradey Dick's are better.

[The Truth #6]

We need talent obviously, and Cam is young so I’m not saying he is awful or can’t improve. I will say he could benefit from slowing down at times and adding in some old man game of back down players so he can see his teammates more.

I do see him as a SF and that is super needed. But he is an off ball player and maybe that’s why I have him lower than Amen who is comfortable with the ball in his hands. Amen needs to shoot better obviously but needs to learn to do less. To me it’s harder learning to do more, such as play on ball to score and pass. So to me that’s what limits Cam’s upside: he has to learn how to work in the pnr and find his teammates to be a star. For me, Amen has less obstacles to be a star. Having said that, Cam totally has an easy path to be a solid role player. For me, I’m less interested in a role player. But again, just my opinion and I’m happy to be convinced otherwise.

[Silverheart80]

https://youtu.be/XGNoZvtBXzs

Hendricks has no shot creation to speak of. The opposite of what the Spurs need right now tbh. If anyone watches this long vid (i encourage it), you’ll notice he barely has the ball in his hands and when he does, he only takes a one or two dribbles before shooting. The Spurs should have higher expectations from their top pick being a catch and shoot player. At least Jarace Walker has some semblance of a mid range game.

Good video. Thanks for posting. Hendricks was my preferred pick for the Spurs, if they don't land the #1. But yeah, I now see the limitation and agree with the point about needing a more well-rounded player. I just don't know who that prospect would be, given the candidates in this draft.

If I were Spurs GM, the only one I'm definitely sure I *wouldn't* draft is Scoot. Makes sense for short-term hype, but not as the centerpiece of a team building toward a ring in an NBA future where playmakers will be much taller and much longer for the elite teams. There will be plenty of short point guards, same as ever in the coming years, but *not* on the teams chasing les. So if the ring is the thing, then winning roster designs will have to feature long, agile playmakers that can shoot, not just to create offensive mismatches vs. opponents, but to avoid creating gaping defensive mismatches for themselves.

That's gonna be the legacy of KD, but also the global influence Wembanyama's hype will have, no matter where he goes or what he does. Kids aren't gonna suddenly grow taller, but the ones that are genetically freakish will be influenced to play like KD and VW from here on. Players that are 6'2" will be such liabilities on defense that I don't seem them being desirable starters on perennial playoff teams in the near future. Might work today but not in years to come, no matter how "athletic" they are.

So who *do* you think is the right draft pick for the Spurs, Dejounte? (VW aside)

[KobesAchilles]

If we get Can Shitmore then we are screwed as a franchise. He is like Carmel Anthony but without his offensive talent

[The Truth #6]

Cam seems like a good citizen and, hey, he plays the baritone saxophone. The FO still gets excited about details like that imo. They may think: 1. they can mold him into a better player, and 2. He has good character and motivation to become great. For me, that’s several years just until he can possibly run a pick and roll and I don’t see the wait being worth it.

[rascal]

If we get Can Shitmore then we are screwed as a franchise. He is like Carmel Anthony but without his offensive talent

If Cam can be a ten time all star like Carmelo then the Spurs did well with him as their pick.

[The Truth #6]

“But without his offensive talent”…

[jjspur]

If we don't get a top 3 pick, then the next 5 or so picks, have their strengths and weaknesses so we aren't getting a player with guaranteed all star skills but we should be a be able to land a player with skills that can be developed even more. Whitmore falls into that category if we happen to pick 4th or further down.

[BacktoBasics]

If we don't get a top 3 pick, then the next 5 or so picks, have their strengths and weaknesses so we aren't getting a player with guaranteed all star skills but we should be a be able to land a player with skills that can be developed even more. Whitmore falls into that category if we happen to pick 4th or further down.

I completely understand taking a swing at Amen at 4. The athleticism warrants it. 5th pick on and the best player who has the potential to change the dynamic of your team is Black. Probably not his rookie season but he’s loaded with intangibles and has that “it” factor when it comes to being a guy who can dictate the pace of a game rather than be solely reactionary.

I get there are a few others that speak to contribution but Black has something that I think would really glue the Spurs together in a way we haven’t seen yet. He really would bridge the gap between Sochan and Vassell/Keldon. Instead of being interesting players on the same team I feel he would glue it together. Tough to verbalize. I’m a Black believer.

Giddey like. Yes I understand that Giddey was a bit more developed on draft night.

[scott]

If we were somehow able to take last year’s class and enter them into a redraft with this year’s class, where do you think they’d rank? My guess is something like this:

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Chet
4. Mathurin
5. Ivey
6. Scoot
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Jabari Smith
10. ?!?!?!?!

Last year was a really good draft. This year seems to kind of blow, much like Mr. Body has been saying for a few months.

[Mr. Body]

I would pick Shaeden Sharpe over Amen or Ausar Thompson.

[JPB]

If we were somehow able to take last year’s class and enter them into a redraft with this year’s class, where do you think they’d rank? My guess is something like this:

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Chet
4. Mathurin
5. Ivey
6. Scoot
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Jabari Smith
10. ?!?!?!?!

Last year was a really good draft. This year seems to kind of blow, much like Mr. Body has been saying for a few months.

Sochan has to be in that top 10.

[rascal]

Sochan has to be in that top 10.

No he doesn't.

[Vince Carter's ankle]

No he doesn't.
You only watch boxscore and highlights.
Your opinion doesn't count.

[jjspur]

Out of the top 10 picks in this years draft, there will be at least 3 really good players, future stars or all stars (Wemby in one of those for sure), the other two I'm not sure. We know they were good where they played, but that doesn't always translate to being a good NBA level player.

What we also know is that there will be a few duds, even in the top 10. Every draft has them. We will get at least a top seven pick, so I'm hoping the spurs don't reach as they did with Primo, or select a complete dud that's out of the league in a few years. Even if we just select a role player, anyone who can help the spurs move forward is Ok with me, so long as they don't select a dud.

[Ariel]

If we were somehow able to take last year’s class and enter them into a redraft with this year’s class, where do you think they’d rank? My guess is something like this:

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Chet
4. Mathurin
5. Ivey
6. Scoot
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Jabari Smith
10. ?!?!?!?!

Last year was a really good draft. This year seems to kind of blow, much like Mr. Body has been saying for a few months.
Depends. Do yo go with what we know now, or strictly by pre-draft?
If we use only pre-draft info, Jabari Smith would be much higher, he was no. 1 in many people's boards, nobody would have taken Mathurin, Ivey or Murray over him.
If we use our knowledge from the past year, Sochan and Sharpe should be in there, and I'd take Murray out altogether, and drop Mathurin and Ivey a few spots. Also Chet's risk factor is too big for me to take him at 3.

[BackHome]

If your not taking Chet at 3 because of Risk factor then you definitely not taking Wemb. at 1 for the same reason.

[rascal]

If your not taking Chet at 3 because of Risk factor then you definitely not taking Wemb. at 1 for the same reason.

It's just potential upside in the player. If the player hits their max potential.

[JPB]

If your not taking Chet at 3 because of Risk factor then you definitely not taking Wemb. at 1 for the same reason.

Wemby is a generational player, Chet not. And wemby hasn't had any type of injury like Chet in 2 years as a pro and none serious this year.

[mo7888]

If we were somehow able to take last year’s class and enter them into a redraft with this year’s class, where do you think they’d rank? My guess is something like this:

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Chet
4. Mathurin
5. Ivey
6. Scoot
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Jabari Smith
10. ?!?!?!?!

Last year was a really good draft. This year seems to kind of blow, much like Mr. Body has been saying for a few months.

Last years class now or last years class before the draft? Your list Is apparently that class after their rookie year.

[scott]

Last years class now or last years class before the draft? Your list Is apparently that class after their rookie year.

My apologies I wasn’t more clear. Last year’s class knowing what you know now in with this year’s class.

[mo7888]

My apologies I wasn’t more clear. Last year’s class knowing what you know now in with this year’s class.

Gotcha... based on known performance in their rookie years, I go..

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Scoot
4. Chet
5. Mathurin
6. Ivey
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Cam
10. Walker

[Ariel]

If your not taking Chet at 3 because of Risk factor then you definitely not taking Wemb. at 1 for the same reason.
Is Wemby fractured? Does he try to block everything his way and get thrown around like a rag doll? I remember watching Chet play in the NCAA and calling a very cloudy future for him with his frame and playing style right here. He's like that crazy chihuahua barking at every pit bull, until one chews him up and spits him out. He needs to work on his self awareness.

[JPB]

Gotcha... based on known performance in their rookie years, I go..

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Scoot
4. Chet
5. Mathurin
6. Ivey
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Cam
10. Walker

I def have Sochan over (at least) Cam and Walker.

[Em-City]

Gotcha... based on known performance in their rookie years, I go..

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Scoot
4. Chet
5. Mathurin
6. Ivey
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Cam
10. Walker

Why isn't jalen Williams in there

[mo7888]

I def have Sochan over (at least) Cam and Walker.

I wouldn't based on how I view their upside.

[mo7888]

Why isn't jalen Williams in there

Because I don't think he's worth as much as those..

[exstatic]

Why isn't jalen Williams in there

JW was such an outlier for OKC. He was 21, unlike most of their picks over the last few years, but also much further along his developmental curve. That also means there’s less development left, though.

[Mr. Body]

I wonder if Williams is the Chris Duarte of this draft class. A guy with immediate impact that opponents figure out. He's a bit younger though.

[Ariel]

I wonder if Williams is the Chris Duarte of this draft class. A guy with immediate impact that opponents figure out. He's a bit younger though.
Duarte was 24 as a rookie and never as good or well rounded. Jalen Williams is going to be better than him, but with that said he's not going to end up anywhere near where he is being put right now (top 3 in this class).

[rascal]

Wemby is a generational player, Chet not. And wemby hasn't had any type of injury like Chet in 2 years as a pro and none serious this year.

Chet is made out of glass. He falls over like a rag doll.

Wemby is much stronger and more durable. That was a bad pick by OK City and they will eventually regret it.

[Dejounte]

Holy shiiiiet. Just two nights left

[Silverheart80]

54 hours to go. Dawning on me that the last two years dreaming of VW as a Spur will likely dissolve into trading back for Gradey Dick and another year of losing. Oy. Lighting all the candles for that #1 Tuesday night.

[Mr. Body]

54 hours to go. Dawning on me that the last two years dreaming of VW as a Spur will likely dissolve into trading back for Gradey Dick and another year of losing. Oy. Lighting all the candles for that #1 Tuesday night.

It was always a 14% chance to get the top pick. It's pie in the sky, not going to happen.

Getting a good player and future draft capital is probably best case scenario, realistically, but still unlikely.

[offset formation]

54 hours to go. Dawning on me that the last two years dreaming of VW as a Spur will likely dissolve into trading back for Gradey Dick and another year of losing. Oy. Lighting all the candles for that #1 Tuesday night.

Do your hopes and dreams the favor they deserve now...the Spurs have a 59.9% shot to pick 4-7. If by a 14% miracle we get him, then it'll be icing on the cake.

[offset formation]

Gotcha... based on known performance in their rookie years, I go..

1. Wemby
2. Banchero
3. Scoot
4. Chet
5. Mathurin
6. Ivey
7. Murray
8. Miller
9. Cam
10. Walker

I think you've got Scoot way over-rated Mo

[Russ]

Holy shiiiiet. Just two nights left

And no one has yet started the "Official NBA Draft Lottery Thread."

That's shocking!

[offset formation]

And no one has yet started the "Official NBA Draft Lottery Thread."

That's shocking!

What's the point for a 7th pick?

[mo7888]

I think you've got Scoot way over-rated Mo

I know you do... but I see this draft much differently than people here do. We've talked it down for so long that we've created our own negative gravity towards it. I've been consistent in my view that this is the best draft talent-wise that weve seen in quite some time with two generational talents at the top and I've seen nothing or no argument to give me any pause in my evaluation.

As for Scoot, I'll even say that I think he'll have a better career than Paolo when it's all said and done (and I love Paolo and had him #1 last year when everyone had him at #3 to Houston before Orlando made a draft day pivot). I'm very high on him....

[exstatic]

I know you do... but I see this draft much differently than people here do. We've talked it down for so long that we've created our own negative gravity towards it. I've been consistent in my view that this is the best draft talent-wise that weve seen in quite some time with two generational talents at the top and I've seen nothing or no argument to give me any pause in my evaluation.

As for Scoot, I'll even say that I think he'll have a better career than Paolo when it's all said and done (and I love Paolo and had him #1 last year when everyone had him at #3 to Houston before Orlando made a draft day pivot). I'm very high on him....

You and Dejounte have been consistent, I’ll give you that. I just hate the archtype. Unless your name is Steph Curry, little guys in this league struggle to take their teams deep in the playoffs, and to stay healthy.

[offset formation]

I know you do... but I see this draft much differently than people here do. We've talked it down for so long that we've created our own negative gravity towards it. I've been consistent in my view that this is the best draft talent-wise that weve seen in quite some time with two generational talents at the top and I've seen nothing or no argument to give me any pause in my evaluation.

As for Scoot, I'll even say that I think he'll have a better career than Paolo when it's all said and done (and I love Paolo and had him #1 last year when everyone had him at #3 to Houston before Orlando made a draft day pivot). I'm very high on him....

I respect your take. Not looking down my nose at you, just for the record. Just not seeing the same things as you. Then again few to none see them my way. It's what makes this lots of fun.

[mo7888]

I respect your take. Not looking down my nose at you, just for the record. Just not seeing the same things as you. Then again few to none see them my way. It's what makes this lots of fun.

I agree... I take this pretty laid back... You and Ex have a different take for different reasons and I respect it and both of your thought processes coming to those conclusions too. Y'all may be right and if you are I'm sure I'll hear about it in a few years... lol...

[Ariel]

If everybody thought the same it'd be really boring. I know rascal catches a lot of flack for his fixation on athleticism, exstatic with his open dislike for Scoot, offset with his love affaire with Coulibaly, but that keeps the discussion going and interesting. Personally I'm higher on Cam Whitmore than most people on the board, so it'll be fun to look back on this a year from now.

[heyheymymy]

Love the various takes here and love the ability to discuss that respectfully. Agree that the variety of takes make this forum a resource and helps me look at the situation from every angle in due diligence.

Everyone regardless of takes has provided very illuminating presentations even if I don't view it that way or agree it helps shape what could happen or possible options.

Thanks to all contributors and nice work on Spurs coverage here. Been a blast looking at all the scenarios and reading all the considerations. I feel very informed and it's been super entertaining.

[Mr. Body]

This kid, Bobi Klintman, a guy from Sweden who didn't do much at Wake Forest last year, has pulled out of the draft combine, with speculation that he has a promise. A couple draft boards have him at places like 15 and 22. It's wild how teams draft on physical profile and a hint of basketball skill nowadays.

[exstatic]

This kid, Bobi Klintman, a guy from Sweden who didn't do much at Wake Forest last year, has pulled out of the draft combine, with speculation that he has a promise. A couple draft boards have him at places like 15 and 22. It's wild how teams draft on physical profile and a hint of basketball skill nowadays.

Uh, Thompson Twins?

[duncan2150]

This kid, Bobi Klintman, a guy from Sweden who didn't do much at Wake Forest last year, has pulled out of the draft combine, with speculation that he has a promise. A couple draft boards have him at places like 15 and 22. It's wild how teams draft on physical profile and a hint of basketball skill nowadays.

never heard his name since two weeks ago


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t9zcD1maZg



other than that, i have a hard time seeing this guy out of the top 3-4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guTUeq8zsDY&list=RDCMUCYOC2Wp6qCkZ_ZD9028k l-Q&index=5

[Mr. Body]

I guess the 20-30 range is where you take swings at players, but there sure seem to be a lot of guys of this type, Ziaire Williams, Patrick Baldwin types who sucked in college but were taken anyway and then sucked in the NBA, but then on occasion you get a Trey Murphy, who had real issues in the NCAA but turned out great. Klintman is like the Ousmane Dieng of this draft class.

[rascal]

You and Dejounte have been consistent, I’ll give you that. I just hate the archtype. Unless your name is Steph Curry, little guys in this league struggle to take their teams deep in the playoffs, and to stay healthy.

Why does Scoot have to be the guy to take a team to the finals.

Scoot may not even end up the best player on his team but he could be a valuable piece to a championship build.

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwMBh2oWAAE1n4v?format=jpg&name=large

[duncan2150]

good to see black jumping that high cause the no step vertical and the 3/4 sprint were a little bit average

a lot of really interestings things with those combine athletic tests

[exstatic]

Why does Scoot have to be the guy to take a team to the finals.

Scoot may not even end up the best player on his team but he could be a valuable piece to a championship build.

Posters are talking about him as a franchise guy, and that's what franchise guys do. If you don't believe he can, there are plenty of players a bit further back and cheaper that can be valuable pieces on a championship team. Trade back, pick up a future asset, and draft one of them. If you don't understand, just call the Sacto or GS GMs and ask them how difficult it is when you whiff on a recent #2 pick and then have to dump them. You get next to nothing.

[Mr. Body]

happy to see black jumping that high cause the no step vertical and the 3/4 sprint were a little bit average

a lot of really interestings things with those combine athletic tests

Black can get up there when he's moving. He's not that fast, but is pretty quick in changing directions (defense) and takes up space due to size/length. He's like an actually athletic Slomo.

Tankathon has him at 6 now, btw.

[heyheymymy]

I seem to recall EJ Liddell topping the vertical ranks at last years combine

[rjv]

whatever we do, let's make sure we put all our stock into all these scouting reports, like this gem from the past:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2096255-nikola-jokic-nba-draft-2014-highlights-scouting-report-and-more

[The Truth #6]

Posters are talking about him as a franchise guy, and that's what franchise guys do. If you don't believe he can, there are plenty of players a bit further back and cheaper that can be valuable pieces on a championship team. Trade back, pick up a future asset, and draft one of them. If you don't understand, just call the Sacto or GS GMs and ask them how difficult it is when you whiff on a recent #2 pick and then have to dump them. You get next to nothing.

Makes sense in theory but sounds like Sacto should have just picked Luka. So I agree we have to draft well. But trading back is a very low chance. So if you have #2 and can’t trade out…you want to pick Taylor Hendricks?

[exstatic]

Makes sense in theory but sounds like Sacto should have just picked Luka. So I agree we have to draft well. But trading back is a very low chance. So if you have #2 and can’t trade out…you want to pick Taylor Hendricks?

Sacto was probably a bad example. They've been hapless in the draft forever.

Dallas traded back and got Luka. In fact, they traded the little, inefficient, no D chucker from THAT draft.

I think the odds of having #2 and not being able to trade back are like 0.00000000001, if every other NBA GM suddenly has a stroke and is incapacitated. Someone is going to want it, if not for Scoot, then for Miller.

[Ariel]

Dallas traded back and got Luka. In fact, they traded the little, inefficient, no D chucker from THAT draft.
Dallas traded up, not down. They got #3 (Luka) for #5 (Trae) + future unprotected 1st (came out #10 and was used on Cam Reddish).
When they did trade up was for Dirk. They had #6 (Robert Tractor Traylor) and traded down with Milwaukee for #9 (Dirk) + #19 (Pat Garrity), the latter was subsequently sent to Phoenix in a package for Nash. So trading down not only they got the best player, but also a piece they used for Nash. Not bad at all...

[The Truth #6]

Sacto was probably a bad example. They've been hapless in the draft forever.

Dallas traded back and got Luka. In fact, they traded the little, inefficient, no D chucker from THAT draft.

I think the odds of having #2 and not being able to trade back are like 0.00000000001, if every other NBA GM suddenly has a stroke and is incapacitated. Someone is going to want it, if not for Scoot, then for Miller.

I hear you. I’m saying I don’t think the Spurs will want to do that. I think the chance is very low, and so yes there are concerns with lots of players, but they will pick someone if they’re at 2, and I’ll be shocked if it’s Hendricks.

[Mr. Body]

Sacto was probably a bad example. They've been hapless in the draft forever.

Dallas traded back and got Luka. In fact, they traded the little, inefficient, no D chucker from THAT draft.

I think the odds of having #2 and not being able to trade back are like 0.00000000001, if every other NBA GM suddenly has a stroke and is incapacitated. Someone is going to want it, if not for Scoot, then for Miller.

If the Spurs get, and then want to trade down from, any pick where Scoot or Amen, and possibly Ausar, are available, they shouldn't have any problem.

[Mr. Body]

I hear you. I’m saying I don’t think the Spurs will want to do that. I think the chance is very low, and so yes there are concerns with lots of players, but they will pick someone if they’re at 2, and I’ll be shocked if it’s Hendricks.

The problem is top picks are very expensive. The rookie scale is a beast.

[exstatic]

I hear you. I’m saying I don’t think the Spurs will want to do that. I think the chance is very low, and so yes there are concerns with lots of players, but they will pick someone if they’re at 2, and I’ll be shocked if it’s Hendricks.

I wouldn't even want them to pick Hendricks at 2, nor Black, and I'm big fans of both.

[Mr. Body]

https://youtu.be/kQ9LaM4Sp9c

Coach Spins, another mock that has Black at #5. It seems like that opinion is firming up and my outsize dream of trading down to get him is unlikely. Here, Spins singles out his defense saying he may be the best perimeter defensive prospect he's evaluated. That's a bit of an exaggeration to me, but his potential there is extremely good. If we have a prayer of slowing down explosive perimeter players this is the type of player we need.

[offset formation]

We need defense. Go get the best on ball defender. Bilal.

[Russ]

The problem is top picks are very expensive. The rookie scale is a beast.

Everyone says it's feast or famine, but if the Spurs are still in it for the last two picks, that could really be feast or famine.

Obviously, the first pick is the one you want but (depending on who the Spurs want), the second pick could be the absolute worst spot to land.

[mo7888]

If the Spurs get, and then want to trade down from, any pick where Scoot or Amen, and possibly Ausar, are available, they shouldn't have any problem.

Pretty much this.... Any top 4 pick will have plenty of suitors trying to acquire it. I wouldn’t trade #1 or #2, but 3 or 4 I'd definitely explore my options.

[rascal]

We need defense. Go get the best on ball defender. Bilal.

You target offense with a top 7 pick. Offensive potential comes at a larger draft cost.

Get your defense with the second round pick.

[spurraider21]

nba combine numbers are actually pretty disappointing if you follow the NFL combine.

these guys have "max vert" numbers worse than a lot of the NFL guys standing verts.

from what ive seen, Whitemore has the highest "max" vert of 40.5. meanwhile 14 guys at this year's NFL combine matched or exceeded 40.5 with the standing vert

different caliber of athlete tbh

[Mr. Body]

nba combine numbers are actually pretty disappointing if you follow the NFL combine.

these guys have "max vert" numbers worse than a lot of the NFL guys standing verts.

Basketball players have to do a lot more than a football player. Some football players spin right. That's all they do. Other football players spin left.

[spurraider21]

Basketball players have to do a lot more than a football player. Some football players spin right. That's all they do. Other football players spin left.
im not comparing the separate skills the sports require. im just comparing the athletic ability. jumping being a common one with the two sports

at least years nba combine, the highest standing vertical leap was 35.5 inches (EJ Lidell). meanwhile just looking at offensive linemen of this year's nfl combine, blake freeland had a standing vert of 37 inches at 302 pounds

[Mr. Body]

im not comparing the separate skills the sports require. im just comparing the athletic ability. jumping being a common one with the two sports

at least years nba combine, the highest standing vertical leap was 35.5 inches (EJ Lidell). meanwhile just looking at offensive linemen of this year's nfl combine, blake freeland had a standing vert of 37 inches at 302 pounds

You're missing the point. Football players don't have to know anything about the sport other than the very specific 'skill' they're meant to do. Therefore you can draw from a larger group of athletes. When you get a guy who just runs and catches a ball, you can get a more athletic guy.

[spurraider21]

You're missing the point. Football players don't have to know anything about the sport other than the very specific 'skill' they're meant to do. Therefore you can draw from a larger group of athletes. When you get a guy who just runs and catches a ball, you can get a more athletic guy.


im not comparing the separate skills the sports require. im just comparing the athletic ability. jumping being a common one with the two sports

at least years nba combine, the highest standing vertical leap was 35.5 inches (EJ Lidell). meanwhile just looking at offensive linemen of this year's nfl combine, blake freeland had a standing vert of 37 inches at 302 pounds
already addressed. as someone who follows both sports, it just caught my eye how different expectations are as to what is a "good vert" in the two sports. im not comparing the skill of the athletes. i think you are massively downplaying the skill of NFL players, but i'm not even getting into that lol. they're obviously different sports with different demands. i just made a simple observation about verts. the nfl doesnt even bother testing "max" vert as they only do the standing vert

[offset formation]

You target offense with a top 7 pick. Offensive potential comes at a larger draft cost.

Get your defense with the second round pick.

"The French wing started his 2022-23 campaign playing for the U21 squad of Metropolitans where he immediately stood out, putting up 21.9 points per game on 62.7 TS%. His defensive production in the French U21 league was also impressive, racking up 2.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per contest."

[Mr. Body]

already addressed. as someone who follows both sports, it just caught my eye how different expectations are as to what is a "good vert" in the two sports. im not comparing the skill of the athletes. i think you are massively downplaying the skill of NFL players, but i'm not even getting into that lol

All of the sophistication in the NFL happens upstairs, other than the quarterback. Almost all of the players barely have any need to understand what's going on other than what they very specifically do. Yes, linebackers and others have to make quick reads, but it's a highly specialized sport where players are just... dumb. There's no other way to put it. You seem to be a fan, which is fine, but it's a vastly different sport. Hell, players don't even play on both sides of the ball.

It's just supply and demand. When you have a big lardass who spins right every single play and tries to do it faster than his opponent can stop him, you don't have to control for anything else. So you can pull guys who jump real high, etc. They barely have any other requirements. Basketball, you need a guy who can do a number of different things, the least of which is actually play both sides of the ball and be good at multiple skills.

[exstatic]

"The French wing started his 2022-23 campaign playing for the U21 squad of Metropolitans where he immediately stood out, putting up 21.9 points per game on 62.7 TS%. His defensive production in the French U21 league was also impressive, racking up 2.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per contest."

One of the best defenders in the last 10 drafts was also a Frenchman. His name was Frank Ntilakina, and he was drafted #8 overall. He played in the French A league, and not on the junior team, and was a colossal bust at a pick that is lower than we can even fall in this draft.

[spurraider21]

All of the sophistication in the NFL happens upstairs, other than the quarterback. Almost all of the players barely have any need to understand what's going on other than what they very specifically do. Yes, linebackers and others have to make quick reads, but it's a highly specialized sport where players are just... dumb. There's no other way to put it. You seem to be a fan, which is fine, but it's a vastly different sport. Hell, players don't even play on both sides of the ball.

It's just supply and demand. When you have a big lardass who spins right every single play and tries to do it faster than his opponent can stop him, you don't have to control for anything else. So you can pull guys who jump real high, etc. They barely have any other requirements. Basketball, you need a guy who can do a number of different things, the least of which is actually play both sides of the ball and be good at multiple skills.
its astonishing that they can find a big lardass who can just "spin right on every single play" who have higher verts than the best of nba superstars

im a big fan of both sports, though i typically follow the nfl draft a lot closer than the nba draft. i never realized the nba vert numbers we always hear was not the "standing" vert

[offset formation]

One of the best defenders in the last 10 drafts was also a Frenchman. His name was Frank Ntilakina, and he was drafted #8 overall. He played in the French A league, and not on the junior team, and was a colossal bust at a pick that is lower than we can even fall in this draft.

I'm aware. I also see athleticism oozing from this kid's pores. Dont think a serious person wouldnsay that about Frank. Bilal has almost a foot more reach and has better lateral movement. Frank has never even averaged 1 whole steal.

Nor offensively, are tge close. Frank isnt a 3 level scorer. Frank hasn't had an NBA season even shooting in the 40% range (39.9% is a career high). Bilal shoots above the 50% range FG You couldn't say Frank is an above the rim player. My man Bilal is. My Bilal is a better natural passer and at 6'8", and better rebounder.

And as for the knock on the level of play, that's why trajectory is important contextual information. He greatly improved from last year to this year, which is precisely what you'd want to see instead of it being a negative.

About the only thing they have in common is that they are both Frenchman.

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/NBADraftWass/status/1658129667176517636

[scott]

I'm aware. I also see athleticism oozing from this kid's pores. Dont think a serious person wouldnsay that about Frank. Bilal has almost a foot more reach and has better lateral movement. Frank has never even averaged 1 whole steal.

Nor offensively, are tge close. Frank isnt a 3 level scorer. Frank hasn't had an NBA season even shooting in the 40% range (39.9% is a career high). Bilal shoots above the 50% range FG You couldn't say Frank is an above the rim player. My man Bilal is. My Bilal is a better natural passer and at 6'8", and better rebounder.

And as for the knock on the level of play, that's why trajectory is important contextual information. He greatly improved from last year to this year, which is precisely what you'd want to see instead of it being a negative.

About the only thing they have in common is that they are both Frenchman.

I admire your conviction. One day you're either going to look like a genius or an idiot. YOLO!

[DPG21920]

I think as of now, I am:

Wemby
Scoot
Amen
Whitmore
Miller
Black
Cason Wallace
Ausar/Bilal

I don’t know man - please just give us top 2

[offset formation]

I admire your conviction. One day you're either going to look like a genius or an idiot. YOLO!

I'm OK with this. Behold, I'm Bucker of Trends.

In all seriousness though on a larger point, if I'm right and none of the Thompson twins nor Scoot ever amount to. not much beyond mid-level players or even solid role players that challenge for a all. Nba team once, for the course of their respective careers, we should reject the notion that there's a real life genius ongoing in the sort of group think draft analysis that numbers these kids. For months, all we've heard about beyond Wembanyama is, and in order, Scoot, then Amen. Ausur somewhere near, but below him. Then some combination of the rest.

I say if you watch Bilal's overall game, it almost jumps out how his entire game ultimately outclasses those guys when you consider his defensive skillset with the clear signs he's shown offensively, juxtaposed with his athletlicism.

[DPG21920]

I trust the Spurs - there’s not anything “clear” outside of Wemby/Scoot IMO (and even Scoot isn’t a for sure generational talent). Anything after pick 2 I don’t care who SA drafts; they have earned my trust overall and there’s no such thing as a reach starting there for the most part IMO (within some reason :lol )

[pookenstein]

Hopefully by tomorrow, this will be a very lonely thread...

[offset formation]

Hopefully by tomorrow, this will be a very lonely thread...

Would love for that to be the case. I've said since the beginning it's Wembanyama or bust for me. Just hopeful there's gold in them thar hills somewhere else beyond Wembanyama and I've convinced myself of we don't get Wembanyama at least there's another player I could really get excited about.

[scott]

YO FUCK THIS THREAD (unless we talkin' SRPs)

[Mr. Body]

Thank God we don't have to hash out whether Ausar Thompson is actually good or not.

[DAF86]

Admin please delete.