Fischer: Spurs Repeatedly Mentioned By NBA Figures As Potential Home For Young

[TekXX]

Let's work under the contention that Wemby has maybe 10 good years before those long ass muscles and tendons start to break down. Get the man some help this summer. Not sure Pops 10 year plan of praying for another Manu or Kawhi to show up in the draft is going to work out.

[CorrectCrusader]

Spursraider was responding to Chinook saying we should get a legit vet to chaperone the team, not a younger star like Trae. There are no more legit vet than the legitest vetest of them all LeBron :)

Lebron would ship everything off for aging veterans to compete. Wemby isn't ready to do that yet

[Dejounte]

https://x.com/complexsneakers/status/1757800563998179368?s=46

Definitely not a future Spur

[spurraider21]

hawks got waxed by charlotte :lol

[Dejounte]

“Inspired by Young’s prolific passing ability” sounds like another “yeah Wemby’s open and that’s an easy lob” wink wink tactic from Trae

[CorrectCrusader]

Y'all wanna watch more Tre Jones 3 point bricks or nah?

[objective]

Spurs about to be 6-15 with Jones starting ... But there's still people who are like "let's stick with Jones!"

[gambit1990]

in b4 the spurs sign eric gordon instead.

[Chinook]

:lol at people thinking Young would be a better get than James. Lebron, even with everything, is a much better player than Young will ever be and would not cost trade assets if he serious about opting out to play with his son. Ignoring that there's no reason why James and Young would be mutually exclusive (the Spurs could draft Bronnie, trade for Trae and then sign Lebron), a year or two with a legit championship centerpiece is worth way more than two to five years with a fringe superstar.

When people talk about the new CBA supposedly favoring more balanced rosters rather than superteams, they don't mean that having no superstars is better than having multiple superstars. They mean that not spending the cap whole on two or three players may allow for an overall more even team. Trading for a guy on a Rose-max in hopes he's still on the team when Wemby gets his own Rose-max deal and/or when the Spurs make a trade for a third max contract than taking the superstar with multiple rings right in front of you. Trae being 25 or 26 is among the least important factors.

[z0sa]

Spurs about to be 6-15 with Jones starting ... But there's still people who are like "let's stick with Jones!"

I love Tre. He hustles hard, hard worker, takes what the defense (and our sets) give him. He's just not that talented. It's tough, it's a tough world. In a perfect scenario he'd be improving faster and his size/athleticism wouldn't be such large factors. Unfortunately, life is about making lemonade, and he's done about as well as can be expected in terms of his ceiling. I think he could be a slightly better finisher and a slightly better three point shooter, but he'll never be TP in the paint, nor will he ever be a dead eye shooter unless it's as a sub or glue guy. The starter on even a top 6 team seems out of reach, but again, it's not hate. He's done extremely well for what the basketball gods provided him.

[CorrectCrusader]

Lebron isn't coming to the spurs.

[Chinook]

Let's work under the contention that Wemby has maybe 10 good years before those long ass muscles and tendons start to break down. Get the man some help this summer. Not sure Pops 10 year plan of praying for another Manu or Kawhi to show up in the draft is going to work out.

Wemby's career potentially being cut short doesn't mean he's going to be a superstar any faster. All that would mean is that it's critical to hit the window when it opens. The Spurs rushing these moves would expose them to missing the window altogether. Wemby isn't good enough right now. If the Spurs teleported into the playoffs, they'd be swept by anyone else in the bracket. That's not because Victor doesn't have enough help -- although obviously the roster isn't there yet either. It's because he himself isn't ready. Until he's ready, the supporting cast isn't going to do anything but become more expensive. The difference between Wemby and Doncic right now is massive, and Luka himself is probably another level-up to be a championship centerpiece. That's not a talent or potential thing, obviously. It's a time thing.

[JeffDuncan]

hawks got waxed by charlotte :lol


Yeah, DJM and Trae both had a bad game shooting. The Hawks also had injury trouble in the middle, they started Bruno Fernando at center.

But even on a bad night in a lousy game Trae still had 12 assists.

[Dejounte]

Until he's ready, the supporting cast isn't going to do anything but become more expensive..

This is a point people will continue to disagree with. And I know you’ve explained why. Aside from Wemby’s desire to stay with the Spurs being affected (another point you don’t believe in), having a team be more competitive does not make things worse or do nothing for Wemby. It will be beneficial for his experience to be in in-game situations where the game is actually close. Or, when the games really matter (play-in or playoffs). And I don’t know how you could say he’s so far away. From a championship, sure. Winning a championship or getting to finals require a lot of grit, endurance, and playoff-physical moves. But the player Wemby is now might be rough around the edges but he’s clearly dominant in most of the plays he’s involved in.

[Frenchfred]

Yeah, DJM and Trae both had a bad game shooting. The Hawks also had injury trouble in the middle, they started Bruno Fernando at center.

But even on a bad night in a lousy game Trae still had 12 assists.

he is shooting 42% so bad shooting nights are common, he also had 4 TOs

[Spurminator]

Spurs about to be 6-15 with Jones starting ... But there's still people who are like "let's stick with Jones!"

Are there really people who think Tre Jones is the future starting PG for this team? I like him from a BBIQ standpoint but he's a backup at best.

[scott]

This is a point people will continue to disagree with. And I know you’ve explained why. Aside from Wemby’s desire to stay with the Spurs being affected (another point you don’t believe in), having a team be more competitive does not make things worse or do nothing for Wemby. It will be beneficial for his experience to be in in-game situations where the game is actually close. Or, when the games really matter (play-in or playoffs). And I don’t know how you could say he’s so far away. From a championship, sure. Winning a championship or getting to finals require a lot of grit, endurance, and playoff-physical moves. But the player Wemby is now might be rough around the edges but he’s clearly dominant in most of the plays he’s involved in.

Man, great point that is just being casually discounted. We aren't going to merely make an instant jump from bottom dweller to championship contender, and we should merely ignore putting a better team around Wemby until he is ready to win a finals MVP. There is a continual building process. Even if you think Wemby won't be "ready" until year 5 - you should spend years 2, 3, and 4 getting him experience in being part of a winning club, being in tough playoff series, etc.

[Dejounte]

Man, great point that is just being casually discounted. We aren't going to merely make an instant jump from bottom dweller to championship contender, and we should merely ignore putting a better team around Wemby until he is ready to win a finals MVP. There is a continual building process. Even if you think Wemby won't be "ready" until year 5 - you should spend years 2, 3, and 4 getting him experience in being part of a winning club, being in tough playoff series, etc.

What’s makes me scratch my head is the “Luka isn’t ready either and needs to level up to win a championship”. I mean damn, if he isn’t ready then who is? I think there are imaginary bars here that are set way too high.

[scott]

Maybe people think that basketball players are like Pokemon... they need to evolve into their final form to be "ready". Luka's final form is fat Charizard.

[LeBowen]

Man, great point that is just being casually discounted. We aren't going to merely make an instant jump from bottom dweller to championship contender, and we should merely ignore putting a better team around Wemby until he is ready to win a finals MVP. There is a continual building process. Even if you think Wemby won't be "ready" until year 5 - you should spend years 2, 3, and 4 getting him experience in being part of a winning club, being in tough playoff series, etc.

Well said.
Despite their record, OKC will probably get killed in this year's playoffs.
But that's going to be invaluable experience for them.
Much like last year was for the Kings.

If we're to contend, we'll need at least a couple of seasons in the playoffs.
As you said, can't go from 0 to 100 right away.

Another season of lottery would create a losing culture.
Charlotte didn't make the playoffs since 2016.
Spurs and Pistons since 2019.
Everyone else played at least one series the past three years.

This is going to be the fifth year in lottery, that's more than enough.
No more excuses, Spurs simply have to at least be in the running for play-in from the next season onwards.

[spurraider21]

Are there really people who think Tre Jones is the future starting PG for this team? I like him from a BBIQ standpoint but he's a backup at best.
i also think some people almost intentionally misrepresent the consensus position on jones

its that he is a backup tier PG, but given that the roster lacks a point guard better than him, he is currently the best starting option we have

[onechance87]

Wemby's career potentially being cut short doesn't mean he's going to be a superstar any faster. All that would mean is that it's critical to hit the window when it opens. The Spurs rushing these moves would expose them to missing the window altogether. Wemby isn't good enough right now. If the Spurs teleported into the playoffs, they'd be swept by anyone else in the bracket. That's not because Victor doesn't have enough help -- although obviously the roster isn't there yet either. It's because he himself isn't ready. Until he's ready, the supporting cast isn't going to do anything but become more expensive. The difference between Wemby and Doncic right now is massive, and Luka himself is probably another level-up to be a championship centerpiece. That's not a talent or potential thing, obviously. It's a time thing.

Bro...Wemby is doing things tim duncan did his rookie year.And tim won a chip in his second year.Tim had a good team helping him.
We need to do the same with wemby,We got lucky and drafted wemby...Now lets tak advantage and make moves to get this man help.
We cant wait 4 or 5 years to develop players like branham and sochan and all wright trash players he drafted.Wemby is ready now.

[Chinook]

Man, great point that is just being casually discounted. We aren't going to merely make an instant jump from bottom dweller to championship contender, and we should merely ignore putting a better team around Wemby until he is ready to win a finals MVP. There is a continual building process. Even if you think Wemby won't be "ready" until year 5 - you should spend years 2, 3, and 4 getting him experience in being part of a winning club, being in tough playoff series, etc.

That's not a point anyone is missing. Even someone like Bod or Ex believes in incremental steps. They just believe that will come from their talent growing rather than an outside signing. The recent conversation in this thread has been about what kind of major acquisition would help the team the most. My argument against Young isn't that Wemby's not a fMVP, so the team needs to keep tanking. It's that the team needs to operate under the full understanding that they aren't in a position to win a title with Wemby as their best player. So they either need to bring in a player who can be that guy and let Victor be his co-star, or they need to bring in a co-star who's older and will help develop the culture of the players while being under the full understanding that the Spurs aren't a contender. Young checks neither box -- him being on the team still relies on Victor being the guy for them to win, he doesn't really have much to offer the other players in terms of grit and experience, and he's in the upward swing of his compensation, meaning that in order for him to be a factor when Wemby is actually expected to be that guy, the Spurs will have to be paying him a huge amount while missing out on a number of good draft picks that could've been important contributors/another co-star.

You can do this wrong, which is something Dejounte is completely glossing over in his post. Stars will ask out even if their teams try, and they tend to not take any responsibility for the moves they push their teams to do that don't work out. The Spurs run a higher risk of alienating Wembanyama by botching an acceleration attempt than they do of building too slowly. I think Victor can see himself more clearly than some of the fans can. I think he knows how much higher the bar is for him to reach and isn't under the assumption that him as a 20-year-old should expect instant success, even if as a competitive person he would like to see it.


What’s makes me scratch my head is the “Luka isn’t ready either and needs to level up to win a championship”. I mean damn, if he isn’t ready then who is? I think there are imaginary bars here that are set way too high.

Doncic only has the "put the team on his back" mode similar to Harden. He doesn't have the change of pace or adaptability he needs to synergize with his supporting cast. That's a big reason why Dallas has hemorrhaged assets trying to build around him. They made their version of the Young trade for Kristaps and still haven't finished paying off that loan. Their future picks are almost all spoken for and they have basically a gray goo of role-players who are almost completely rely on Doncic and Irving to be individually great simultaneously to really have a ceiling. A lot of folks are talking about Luka being justified to walk away from Dallas, but it wouldn't be because they didn't try to build around him. It would be because they tried to rush things, botched it and then continued to throw assets down the well hoping to come out the other side. Maybe it'll work out, now that Luka is in his sixth year and has had the time people want to believe Wemby doesn't need. It's just a shame his supporting cast is shit with little way of substantially fixing it any time soon.

[scott]

That's not a point anyone is missing. Even someone like Bod or Ex believes in incremental steps. They just believe that will come from their talent growing rather than an outside signing. The recent conversation in this thread has been about what kind of major acquisition would help the team the most. My argument against Young isn't that Wemby's not a fMVP, so the team needs to keep tanking. It's that the team needs to operate under the full understanding that they aren't in a position to win a title with Wemby as their best player. So they either need to bring in a player who can be that guy and let Victor be his co-star, or they need to bring in a co-star who's older and will help develop the culture of the players while being under the full understanding that the Spurs aren't a contender. Young checks neither box -- him being on the team still relies on Victor being the guy for them to win, he doesn't really have much to offer the other players in terms of grit and experience, and he's in the upward swing of his compensation, meaning that in order for him to be a factor when Wemby is actually expected to be that guy, the Spurs will have to be paying him a huge amount while missing out on a number of good draft picks that could've been important contributors/another co-star.

You can do this wrong, which is something Dejounte (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=51342) is completely glossing over in his post. Stars will ask out even if their teams try, and they tend to not take any responsibility for the moves they push their teams to do that don't work out. The Spurs run a higher risk of alienating Wembanyama by botching an acceleration attempt than they do of building too slowly. I think Victor can see himself more clearly than some of the fans can. I think he knows how much higher the bar is for him to reach and isn't under the assumption that him as a 20-year-old should expect instant success, even if as a competitive person he would like to see it.



Doncic only has the "put the team on his back" mode similar to Harden. He doesn't have the change of pace or adaptability he needs to synergize with his supporting cast. That's a big reason why Dallas has hemorrhaged assets trying to build around him. They made their version of the Young trade for Kristaps and still haven't finished paying off that loan. Their future picks are almost all spoken for and they have basically a gray goo of role-players who are almost completely rely on Doncic and Irving to be individually great simultaneously to really have a ceiling. A lot of folks are talking about Luka being justified to walk away from Dallas, but it wouldn't be because they didn't try to build around him. It would be because they tried to rush things, botched it and then continued to throw assets down the well hoping to come out the other side. Maybe it'll work out, now that Luka is in his sixth year and has had the time people want to believe Wemby doesn't need. It's just a shame his supporting cast is shit with little way of substantially fixing it any time soon.

As always, Chinook, good thoughts, though I'm not sure I agree that the Wemby+Trae duo can't be one that grows together along with some veteran grit brought in via additional supporting pieces (a Mario Elie/Jerome Kersey like contributor). You do bring up a valid point in regard to true cash costs that none of us are privy to in regards to ownership's preferences on how much they want to spend on the roster. Trae's price tag in and of itself is not an impediment by roster construction rules but may be from what is acceptable from ownership's bank account.

The only part I take exception with is the bolder portion, which I believe is speculative in nature but doesn't appear supported by Wemby's public statements. None of us here know his true tolerance for a slow build and prolonged losing, but nor do we know if he is impatient to the point of wanting to see progress now. We do know, however, that by Wemby's own criteria (in my signature) that he would consider this season a failure.

[Chinook]

As always, Chinook, good thoughts, though I'm not sure I agree that the Wemby+Trae duo can't be one that grows together along with some veteran grit brought in via additional supporting pieces (a Mario Elie/Jerome Kersey like contributor). You do bring up a valid point in regard to true cash costs that none of us are privy to in regards to ownership's preferences on how much they want to spend on the roster. Trae's price tag in and of itself is not an impediment by roster construction rules but may be from what is acceptable from ownership's bank account.

The only part I take exception with is the bolder portion, which I believe is speculative in nature but doesn't appear supported by Wemby's public statements. None of us here know his true tolerance for a slow build and prolonged losing, but nor do we know if he is impatient to the point of wanting to see progress now. We do know, however, that by Wemby's own criteria (in my signature) that he would consider this season a failure.

You're making an assumption that slow building means fewer wins than a Young acquisition. As I mentioned in that post, stars will leave teams who try to keep them if their attempts fail. That is much more common than a player leaving a situation where the team was internally improving and the player lost patience. Maybe Deron Williams is an example of a player who was getting tired of Utah's core. Mitchell is sort of similar but had the whole Gobert mess that really soured him on the situation. Yes, you can slow-build badly too by drafting a bunch of busts or projects. But even in that case we're still talking about guys in their second contracts asking out. A team that drafts can always accelerate and go all-in. A team that goes all-in can't go back to a deliberate build-through-the-draft approach, both because they don't have the assets and are possibly too good for whatever assets they have to render high-tier prospects and because those young players won't have the time they need to develop if that process starts during the star's prime.

I daresay that you're more likely to find examples of teams who managed to draft their core en route to becoming a contender than a team that acquired a second star and grew with them into a contender. One might have to pretend like the Bucks getting Middleton as a throw-in to the Jennings/Knight trade would count as similar to a Young trade to find a recent example. Otherwise, I'm looking a Shaq and Kobe as the closest to what I think folks might be hoping a Young trade would be. But Shaq is a GOAT candidate and was already entering his prime. I wouldn't put Trae anywhere near that.

[Spurminator]

So they either need to bring in a player who can be that guy and let Victor be his co-star, or they need to bring in a co-star who's older and will help develop the culture of the players while being under the full understanding that the Spurs aren't a contender. Young checks neither box -- him being on the team still relies on Victor being the guy for them to win

I don't know if I'm fully aboard the Young bandwagon but he's already taken a team to the Conference Finals without any other player of Wemby's calibur.


The Spurs run a higher risk of alienating Wembanyama by botching an acceleration attempt than they do of building too slowly. I think Victor can see himself more clearly than some of the fans can. I think he knows how much higher the bar is for him to reach and isn't under the assumption that him as a 20-year-old should expect instant success, even if as a competitive person he would like to see it.

Botching an acceleration attempt probably at least gets them in the Playoffs but with a disappointing result. Building too slowly involves Wemby potentially being on a 20 win team for the next two or three years. I disagree on the level of risk here.


Doncic only has the "put the team on his back" mode similar to Harden. He doesn't have the change of pace or adaptability he needs to synergize with his supporting cast. That's a big reason why Dallas has hemorrhaged assets trying to build around him. They made their version of the Young trade for Kristaps and still haven't finished paying off that loan. Their future picks are almost all spoken for and they have basically a gray goo of role-players who are almost completely rely on Doncic and Irving to be individually great simultaneously to really have a ceiling. A lot of folks are talking about Luka being justified to walk away from Dallas, but it wouldn't be because they didn't try to build around him. It would be because they tried to rush things, botched it and then continued to throw assets down the well hoping to come out the other side. Maybe it'll work out, now that Luka is in his sixth year and has had the time people want to believe Wemby doesn't need. It's just a shame his supporting cast is shit with little way of substantially fixing it any time soon.

Porzingis was a good move that didn't work out. It's not like the Mavs would have been better off holding onto Dennis Smith Jr, and the 1RP they gave up didn't amount to much either (it ended up being #25, and they held onto the 2023 pick by tanking into the bottom 10).

Meanwhile they also got THJ who is a significant contributor, flipped KP for Dinwiddie who was a key contributor to their Conference Finals run, and then flipped Dinwiddie for Kyrie Irving. I don't think you'll find a lot of Mavs fans (or players) who regret the Porzingis trade. The Jalen Brunson thing is another story.

[scott]

I think one thing that works in the Spurs favor here, even if they make a big move to acquire Trae, it still wouldn't constitute going "all-in" because of the vastness of the warchest. As I posted in a scenario earlier, you could send ATL all their picks back, plus the TOR pick, plus Keldon and Collins and still have all of your own picks plus the CHI and CHA (lol) picks and the BOS and DAL swaps.

If you need to move on from Trae, even at a fraction of what you gave up to get him, that is doable (assuming you haven't completely deteriorated his value) and get some capital back. So while Trae might look like an "all-in" move on the surface, the FO's shrewdness (in which I give them full credit for, despite my criticism of their team building prowess) has put them in a position to make a move like this while retaining capital and flexibility to make further moves. In no way do I feel like a Trae acquisition puts them in a position of being stuck the way Minnesota or Phoenix are with the Gobert and Durant acquisitions.

[Spurminator]

Wemby doesn't strike me as being as impatient as Luka, but still... If Dallas had been as patient with Dennis Smith Jr. as people around here want to be with some of the young Spurs who haven't shown much promise yet, and tried to slowly build around Luka through the draft, he'd have been out of Dallas by now.

[scott]

And a disclaimer: I'm not even completely sold on Trae. Part of me would even prefer to bring DJM at a much lower cost to be a key starter but not our co-star. But, I can definitely clearly see the appeal of a Trae acquisition.

[scott]

Wemby doesn't strike me as being as impatient as Luka, but still... If Dallas had been as patient with Dennis Smith Jr. as people around here want to be with some of the young Spurs who haven't shown much promise yet, and tried to slowly build around Luka through the draft, he'd have been out of Dallas by now.

Yeah, this is where I generally am at. I don't want to sit around and hope Vassell/Sochan/Johnson/Branham/Wesley develop into a championship core around Wemby, because I've seen enough to have my own opinion of what these guys are. Sure, I might be wrong... but at some point you have to draw conclusions and make decisions, you can't just sit on your hands and wait for perfect information.

[Chinook]

I don't know if I'm fully aboard the Young bandwagon but he's already taken a team to the Conference Finals without any other player of Wemby's calibur.



Botching an acceleration attempt probably at least gets them in the Playoffs but with a disappointing result. Building too slowly involves Wemby potentially being on a 20 win team for the next two or three years. I disagree on the level of risk here.

As I said before, this is just assuming that whatever move the Spurs make will work so long as it's the move you want them to make. The Spurs are only going to be a 20-win team for two or three years if Victor doesn't continue to develop. That's whether they make a move or not. They're only so bad because he's raw. Further along his developmental curve, he'll be able to drag a bad cast to the playoffs just as the other stars have. As Atlanta themselves show, it's not a given that the team will see a big improvement after making a big acquisition, so assuming in that end is wrong too.


Porzingis was a good move that didn't work out. It's not like the Mavs would have been better off holding onto Dennis Smith Jr, and the 1RP they gave up didn't amount to much either (it ended up being #25, and they held onto the 2023 pick by tanking into the bottom 10).

KP wasn't a good move because he's basically tied their trade ability up for years and forced them into giving up unprotected assets later on because they couldn't trade near-future assets. They didn't keep the 2023 pick. The protection rolled over to this year, and that pick is going to the Knicks. Yes, all these years later, the Mavericks are STILL paying for a player who's two teams away now. That put them in a position where the only star they could acquire is Irving with all his flaws and awkward fit. Moreover, "good trades that don't work out" don't keep stars any more than obviously bad ones do. The results matter, not the effort.


I don't think you'll find a lot of Mavs fans (or players) who regret the Porzingis trade. The Jalen Brunson thing is another story.

And a lot of people will say Luka is justified in leaving when his contract is up. Dallas is an incredibly responsive FO who is willing to pull a problem out by its roots no matter how painful. That's good in a vacuum. The issue is that if you keep having pull out problems and rework them, you end up with the gray goo. The Mavericks have spent assets like they were assembling a super team and ended up with a mediocre roster. The hypothetical Spurs team you're worrying about could still go all-in like MKE did for Holiday. A gray goo Spurs team can't pivot at all.

[Joseph Kony]

the difference between the Spurs and Mavs is they don't need to cough up their own draft assets to get a Young deal done, most likely. Spurs can trade for a star player while still controlling their own draft capital allowing them to make further moves. Spurs need to show Wemby they are serious about trying to win. He's already expressed a desire for vets on the team. sitting around hoping Vassell magically becomes Kobe like he thinks he is or that Sochan is going to turn into prime Draymond Green isn't going to get it done. after this season, Spurs need to start being aggressive in trades/FA

[onechance87]

I think one thing that works in the Spurs favor here, even if they make a big move to acquire Trae, it still wouldn't constitute going "all-in" because of the vastness of the warchest. As I posted in a scenario earlier, you could send ATL all their picks back, plus the TOR pick, plus Keldon and Collins and still have all of your own picks plus the CHI and CHA (lol) picks and the BOS and DAL swaps.

If you need to move on from Trae, even at a fraction of what you gave up to get him, that is doable (assuming you haven't completely deteriorated his value) and get some capital back. So while Trae might look like an "all-in" move on the surface, the FO's shrewdness (in which I give them full credit for, despite my criticism of their team building prowess) has put them in a position to make a move like this while retaining capital and flexibility to make further moves. In no way do I feel like a Trae acquisition puts them in a position of being stuck the way Minnesota or Phoenix are with the Gobert and Durant acquisitions.

They wont take keldon or collins....That makes no sense for them.

[Spursfanfromafar]

The question one needs to answer for the Spurs to get closer to contention isn't if Wemby is ready or not, but which is that star/ second star player who will help Wemby in his quest to help the Spurs win a championship in the medium term. Wemby has clearly proven that
a) he is among the best rookies ever,
b) he is already among the best rim-protectors not just today but probably ever, and
c) his offensive game has grown in leaps and bounds and faster than anyone expected.

If the Spurs' strategy is to wait to build through the draft by hitting triples and home runs with their picks, the chances are most likely that they will never get the right mix of support players who will help Wemby reach that mark.

They will ultimately have to get out of the Hinkie-like plan sooner rather than later and their ceiling will be OKC Thunder of today in 3 years' time with Wemby threatening to be as good as SGA is today in terms of being in the MVP conversation *IF* they get all their moves right and surround Wemby with exceptionally performing players around him. The floor could be the 76ers with Embiid and Simmons in it before Butler, Redick and others joined the team to push it towards contention in two years time.

On the other hand, if the Spurs decide to accelerate their plan towards contention and play it well in terms of getting the right talent around Wemby in the form of decent Free Agents/ players to be got via trade while retaining their important draft picks and replace the current turd lot of Branham, Champagnie, Mamu, Zollins, Osman, Devonte with more functional role players and even veterans while retaining Vassell, Jones and Wesley and if push comes to shove, even Johnson.. they have a higher ceiling in the same time frame and a much higher floor for sure.

Here are some free agents I would love the Spurs to target next year without jeopardizing the plan to build around Wemby -

Priority 1 - A two-way wing to replace Champagnie, who can provide much better on the ball defense and also consistent shooting, besides shot creation through isolation if needed.

Options -

A. Paul George would be the best fit. He has a player option next year and hasn't still signed an extension with the Clips. Chances of getting - near nil as the Clippers are moving to a new arena and will throw the dice on the Leonard-George combo again even if they falter again this postseason. The only way to get him is to blow the competition out with yet another near-max contract for the 33 year old versatile player.

B. Mikal Bridges - would be the perfect fit to Wemby and Vassell and can even catapult the Spurs to playoff contention. Is a free agent only in 2026 though and can be prised out only if the Spurs are willing to trade some picks for him. Sean Marks will surely play hardball and the Spurs might have to trade the Celtics pick in 2028 and one or two of the Atlanta picks to get him. As of now, the Nets aren't keen on trading him, but that stance may change at the end of this season if the Nets continue to stagnate and because they dont have the wherewithal to get good lottery picks in 2024, 2025 (they have the Phoenix unprotected ones in 2025 and 2027 and their own in 2026 but the Suns' picks will be late first rounders and 2026 is 2 years away).

I would gladly trade for Bridges as I think he will be a key bridge (pun intended) to the Spurs' pathway to contention going forward and a perfect fit with Wemby. Chances of getting him - decent but requires the Spurs to give up some draft capital in 2024 and 2025 for sure besides trade Keldon Johnson to the Nets. I personally would gladly do that. Wemby, Bridges and Vassell will be a great two-way combo (all three are already 80%ile and above or nearabouts in both defensive and offensive EPM) plus the Spurs can punt with some picks while keeping some important ones such as their own unprotected ones in 2024 and 2025 possibly.

C. Pascal Siakam - also has a player option. More a PF than a SF, but can capably depend both positions. Not as good as George, but a capable Robin. The Pacers will most likely re-sign him with the catch that they are already paying Haliburtion supermax money and will have to hedge their contract offering a bit to Siakam. If the Spurs are willing to outpay the Pacers, they can get Siakam, but I doubt he is worth the near-supermax or even the max itself. Chances of getting him: Very little, as the Pacers have his Bird Rights and will offer a five year contract (correct me if I am wrong).

D. LeBron James - the closest to an active GOAT is still beating Father Time effectively at age 39. But the cliff isn't far off. Bron also seems to play defense only in crunch time or when he is in the mood. But he will still be a tremendous playmaker setting the table rather easily for Wemby while conserving the energy to be able to mount a good run in the playoffs if required. He, too, has a player option but if he isn't exercising it, he is most likely going to try to latch onto other contenders to win a ring rather than build a contender. Chances of getting him- Nearly NIL.

E. Tobias Harris - While he is nowhere as good as the three players above, he is much better than Keldon Johnson or Jeremy Sochan and will be a certain upgrade over these two, in my opinion. A more capable and consistent three point shooter and someone who offers secondary offense, he can be a good fit with Wemby and Vassell. And he can be had for the relatively cheap as well. Chances of getting him - not bad at all and won't cost much in terms of draft picks etc

Priority 2 - Point Guard , Playmaker.

Options -

A. Trae Young. I dont have to add to what you guys have been discussing here. But suffice to say he will be a high risk, high reward addition. He will be a delight on offense but he is bound to disappoint on defense despite strides made this season. I would personally go for him only if the Spurs dont manage to get any of the aforementioned five and are able to keep its prime lottery picks in 2024 and 2025 besides some of the unprotected picks of the future. Chances of getting him - quite high.

B. Tyus Jones. Tre's brother will be a great fit if the Spurs get one of the Priority 1 wings. And he will be available for relatively cheap. He will be as good as his younger brother but will offer even more steadiness and more importantly much better outside shooting. He will be only inferior to his brother on defense but that won't matter much if the Spurs get a capable on ball wing defender (Mikal Bridges) to pair with Wemby, Vassell along with Sochan. Chances of getting him - very high.

Other role players, one or two among them, that I would target to shuffle the role player set - Isaiah Joe, Lonnie Walker (again!), Jalen Smith, Nic Batum.

My ideal roster next season for the Spurs if all the chips fall in place ( wont happen but still )-

PG: Tyus Jones, Tre Jones, Blake Wesley
SG: Devin Vassell, Lonnie Walker/ Isiah Joe, (two way player)
SF/W: Mikal Bridges, Nic Batum, Julian Champagnie
PF/W: Jeremy Sochan, Zaccharie Risacher, (A decent two way player)
C: Victor Wembanyama, Zach Collins, Dom Barlow

Assumptions:
1. I am assuming the Spurs trade Keldon, Branham, Cissoko plus a host of draft picks (including the Toronto 2024 pick) to the Nets for Bridges if that opportunity is made available (most likely after the draft lottery is done).
2. I am assuming that the Spurs sign Tyus Jones for a reasonable 3 year contract for about $15 million roughly a year, sign Walker/ Joe for contracts worth $8-10 million/ year.
3. And I am assuming the Spurs luck into Risacher in the 2024 draft, which is very much possible considering their own lottery odds in 2024. If something like this transpires, the Spurs get enough three point shooting and defense plus decent playmaking to help Wemby and mould the Spurs into at least a playoff contender. This also allows sufficient development for Risacher (who will push Sochan).

4. If instead, the Spurs land Nikola Topic, they shouldn't go towards getting another PG and should continue to trust Tre Jones as the lead PG but still aim to get Bridges for SF and someone like Naji Marshall as backup PF to Sochan.

---

In a nutshell, the Spurs must not hesitate to use its future draft pick basket to get a competent two-way player and a bunch of more effective role players than who they have now. This will accelerate the path to success for the Spurs with Wemby at the helm.

Just one scenario rather than the risky Trae Young trade or just meandering for another year with turds surrounding Wemby and Vassell.

[scott]

As I said before, this is just assuming that whatever move the Spurs make will work so long as it's the move you want them to make. The Spurs are only going to be a 20-win team for two or three years if Victor doesn't continue to develop. That's whether they make a move or not. They're only so bad because he's raw. Further along his developmental curve, he'll be able to drag a bad cast to the playoffs just as the other stars have. As Atlanta themselves show, it's not a given that the team will see a big improvement after making a big acquisition, so assuming in that end is wrong too.


I take strong issue to this. The Spurs aren't bad because Wemby is raw or isn't good enough. The Spurs are bad because (a) the rest of the roster is trash and (b) the coach doesn't seem too concerned with winning or losing. (b) may be resolve itself over time if Pop magically decides to start winning but (a) in my opinion isn't going to be overcome simply by Wemby's natural evolution. Maybe we transform from a 16-win team to a 25 or 30-win team this way, but I won't count on him dragging this roster + new rookies to the playoffs.

[scott]

They wont take keldon or collins....That makes no sense for them.

Not the important details that matter to the point of my original comment, which is the Spurs won't be emptying their war chest in any Trae acquisition.

[scott]

Great post Spursfanfromafar, but can I request some spacing/formatting in your post? That was honestly as hard to read as when Dejounte was using DJM font.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Great post Spursfanfromafar (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=15183), but can I request some spacing/formatting in your post? That was honestly as hard to read as when Dejounte was using DJM font.

Thanks. I have tried to do that. Please see above.

[Seventyniner]

I take strong issue to this. The Spurs aren't bad because Wemby is raw or isn't good enough. The Spurs are bad because (a) the rest of the roster is trash and (b) the coach doesn't seem too concerned with winning or losing. (b) may be resolve itself over time if Pop magically decides to start winning but (a) in my opinion isn't going to be overcome simply by Wemby's natural evolution. Maybe we transform from a 16-win team to a 25 or 30-win team this way, but I won't count on him dragging this roster + new rookies to the playoffs.

I don't think you fully appreciate how much better the Spurs have been since Tre Jones was put in the starting lineup. Their expected win % over those 22 games based on point differential is 39%, which translates to 32 wins over 82 games.

It wasn't just the Sochan at PG experiment that was a disaster, it was also starting Collins next to Wemby. I don't think it's inconceivable that the Spurs could win 37 games or so next year while only making moderate improvements to the roster, and that should be enough to at least be close to the play-in. Assuming Pop manages to stop himself from re-implanting his head in his ass when it comes to lineup decisions and rotations.

[scott]

I don't think you fully appreciate how much better the Spurs have been since Tre Jones was put in the starting lineup. Their expected win % over those 22 games based on point differential is 39%, which translates to 32 wins over 82 games.

It wasn't just the Sochan at PG experiment that was a disaster, it was also starting Collins next to Wemby. I don't think it's inconceivable that the Spurs could win 37 games or so next year while only making moderate improvements to the roster, and that should be enough to at least be close to the play-in. Assuming Pop manages to stop himself from re-implanting his head in his ass when it comes to lineup decisions and rotations.

Sure, but that also only further demonstrates the point that it's not Wemby's rawness holding this team back - but the sheer ineptitude of the rest of the roster and the coaching decisions. If you can add wins via (a) roster improvement or (b) Wemby's natural development, then (a) is going to be far more incrementally effective than (b).

[Chinook]

I take strong issue to this. The Spurs aren't bad because Wemby is raw or isn't good enough.

Yes they are. Full stop. If he were the player you think he is, they would be a more successful team this year. That's not a knock on Victor. He's a rookie. But if you could transplant Prime Wemby onto this team instead of Current Wemby, the team would win 45 games and make the playoffs. That is how high he can get (and needs to reach to be a HoFer/GOAT candidate) and far he still has to go. Of course that doesn't mean the roster and posture aren't also factors. The team doesn't care about winning this year, and the team is both young and still playing guys with below-average ability. But this roster and this coach still won more games last year despite much more obviously wanting to lose. There are a number of little explanations for that, but the big one is that they reoriented their team to focus on a raw player and create the developmental environment they believe he needs.

I get that to you with your belief in Wemby, that seems ridiculous. But I also think you haven't separated Wemby the player from Wemby the hype train. I think you're projecting the frustration you're feeling that the reality doesn't match the potential onto Victor and combined with the scarring from Kawhi's whole thing, it's making you apply a level of desperation onto the situation that just isn't there. If the Spurs become a 30-win team next year, that's good, especially if it's the result of Victor improving and/or the roster getting better and showing more chemistry. I'd go so far as to say that that would be MUCH better than if they win 40 games after a Young trade. The Thunder only improved by three wins in Durant's sophomore season. They jumped to 50 wins their third year when Durant became an MVP candidate and doubled his win-share total. This really wasn't a supporting-cast thing either, as Durant at almost as many win-shares (16.1) as Jeff Green, Westbrook and Harden combined (17.2). The Thunder were still very much in the mode of selling cap space for assets. Most of their top-dollar guys were either deep in the rotation or weren't even on the team by the end of the year. No, this was literally a HoFer ascending and carrying his team to the playoffs.

Presti obviously had special luck in the 2007-2009 drafts, but it's much easier to find examples of that sort of story than the one where a team drafts a phenom, makes a quick trade and takes off. I think folks should look at what strategies have worked and failed in the past. There's a real chance Wemby starts putting pressure on the Spurs after year six if they haven't truly pivoted to contending. People can fear it happening earlier, but after year six is when Wemby will be eligible for his second extension, and him not signing that extension immediately will be the first time the Spurs will really feel pressure. Of course, with the DPE, it's unlikely he'd pass on it anyway. But putting it out there that he might want to wait to sign it that will be the signal to the Spurs that he might ask out. Any time before then, it's an unrealistic fear. (And yes, that timing is exactly why Young might be traded this summer and why Luka wasn't a risk to be traded before now).

[LeBowen]

Mikal Bridges - would be the perfect fit to Wemby and Vassell and can even catapult the Spurs to playoff contention. Is a free agent only in 2026 though and can be prised out only if the Spurs are willing to trade some picks for him. Sean Marks will surely play hardball and the Spurs might have to trade the Celtics pick in 2028 and one or two of the Atlanta picks to get him. As of now, the Nets aren't keen on trading him, but that stance may change at the end of this season if the Nets continue to stagnate and because they dont have the wherewithal to get good lottery picks in 2024, 2025 (they have the Phoenix unprotected ones in 2025 and 2027 and their own in 2026 but the Suns' picks will be late first rounders and 2026 is 2 years away).

It's not that they're not keen on trading him, but they're asking for like 4 FRPs and a good prospect.
He'd be a perfect fit, but he's borderline out of Wemby's timeline because he'll turn 28 this year.
Too expensive for teams that aren't read to contend right away, imo.

Tobias Harris - While he is nowhere as good as the three players above, he is much better than Keldon Johnson or Jeremy Sochan and will be a certain upgrade over these two, in my opinion. A more capable and consistent three point shooter and someone who offers secondary offense, he can be a good fit with Wemby and Vassell. And he can be had for the relatively cheap as well. Chances of getting him - not bad at all and won't cost much in terms of draft picks etc

He's UFA this summer, he can be had for nothing...if he wants to join.
Sixers won't have anyone except Embiid and Maxey on the books, so they can certainly keep him if they want to.
And I've got no doubts that 32 year old Harris would rather spend the rest of his peak with a contender than Spurs.
If there's a chance to get him, I'd do a 3 year deal, he'd be a perfect fit next to Wemby. Also a high character guy and this team needs some veteran presence.

Also, seems that it's not happening, but there were rumors of Herb Jones being available.
He'd be a perfect fit. As would Trey Murphy that's currently coming off the bench because Jones is starting.
If Murphy becomes unhappy with his bench role, Spurs should make a trade, no questions asked. Either one of them would be amazing for us.



Priority 2 - Point Guard , Playmaker.

Mitchell is up for an extension and I think Garland will become available if Mitchell stays with the Cavs.
Garland-Mitchell duo just can't work in the playoffs, too small and can't defend anything.


Assumptions:

Imo, there are two outcomes:
1. Spurs draft a point guard and get some wings in free agency or via trades.
2. Spurs draft a wing and get a point guard via trades.

Chances of Spurs drafting a point guard are way higher, imo.
The only other team that needs a point guard are the Wizards.
Hornets, Wizards, Blazers and Grizzlies definitely won't be looking for a point guard.
On the other hand, all those teams want wings, so unless Spurs win the lottery (not happening) or get second behind Wizards, chances are that PATFO's preferred wing of choice won't be available.
Hopefully we can get that top3 pick with Wizards ahead of us and another team picking Sarr, because I really don't want a rookie point guard.
The entire timeline would be slowed down considerably with a rookie point guard and there aren't many good wings available on the market.

I'd honestly like to see Trae, Tobias and Risacher as summer reinforcements.
Herb/Murphy is just a pipe dream and unlikely to happen.

[CGD]

Didn’t see this yet, but sorry if already posted:

Beck is also the latest reporter to say that executives around the NBA believe Trae Young‘s name will pop up in trade rumors this offseason. One Western Conference exec told Beck, “I think they would love to trade Trae,” while another said the Hawks discussed a potential Young deal with the Spurs prior to last Thursday’s deadline.

[Spurminator]

As I said before, this is just assuming that whatever move the Spurs make will work so long as it's the move you want them to make. The Spurs are only going to be a 20-win team for two or three years if Victor doesn't continue to develop. That's whether they make a move or not. They're only so bad because he's raw. Further along his developmental curve, he'll be able to drag a bad cast to the playoffs just as the other stars have. As Atlanta themselves show, it's not a given that the team will see a big improvement after making a big acquisition, so assuming in that end is wrong too.

Atlanta was an already good team that made a big acquisition, so their potential for improvement was lower (and they lost some pieces of that ECF team in the meantime).

Anyway nothing's a given. One team wins the Championship every year, so history is littered with examples of teams that made moves that failed, along with teams who tried to patiently grow and mold a young core and failed. I'm not sure any option for the Spurs' approach here can be validated by a example in recent NBA history, so it's really all theory and opinion right now.

In my opinion, if the Spurs can surround Wemby with some winners this summer (without necessarily going "all in" and losing any possibility of future moves), they should do it. I think being surrounded on the floor by more experienced NBA players will help help "un-raw" Wemby more quickly.


KP wasn't a good move because he's basically tied their trade ability up for years and forced them into giving up unprotected assets later on because they couldn't trade near-future assets. They didn't keep the 2023 pick. The protection rolled over to this year, and that pick is going to the Knicks. Yes, all these years later, the Mavericks are STILL paying for a player who's two teams away now. That put them in a position where the only star they could acquire is Irving with all his flaws and awkward fit. Moreover, "good trades that don't work out" don't keep stars any more than obviously bad ones do. The results matter, not the effort.

And a lot of people will say Luka is justified in leaving when his contract is up. Dallas is an incredibly responsive FO who is willing to pull a problem out by its roots no matter how painful. That's good in a vacuum. The issue is that if you keep having pull out problems and rework them, you end up with the gray goo. The Mavericks have spent assets like they were assembling a super team and ended up with a mediocre roster. The hypothetical Spurs team you're worrying about could still go all-in like MKE did for Holiday. A gray goo Spurs team can't pivot at all.

The KP trade hamstrung them so badly that they were still able to trade for a starting PG in 2022, a top 10-15 NBA player in 2023, a starting center and starting SF in 2024, and still draft an All-NBA Rookie in 2023. And yes, the 1RP they traded to the Knicks rolled into this summer and will probably be in the 20's. Seeing as the Mavs were able to protect it in 2023 and draft Derrick Lively, I don't you'll find many Mavs fans losing sleep over it.

No solution is foolproof, nor is every move guaranteed to be a success. If Luka leaves at the end of the contract, that doesn't mean that hanging onto Dennis Scott, Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith while trying to slowly mold Josh Green and Jaden Hardy as 2/3 punches would have convinced him to stay around.

[LeBowen]

Beck is also the latest reporter to say that executives around the NBA believe Trae Young‘s name will pop up in trade rumors this offseason. One Western Conference exec told Beck, “I think they would love to trade Trae,” while another said the Hawks discussed a potential Young deal with the Spurs prior to last Thursday’s deadline.

Western?
Timberwolves, Thunder, Nuggets, Clippers, Suns, Mavericks, Kings, Warriors, Grizzlies, Blazers can be excluded, more or less.
Rockets have FVV, but they might be interested, although it seems unlikely.
Idk what are Pelicans even trying to do, they're so random. Good roster with questionable fit.
Lakers would love to get him, but have no assets.
Leaving us with Spurs and Jazz.

Spurs are unlikely to talk, meaning that either Pelinka or Ainge are stirring shit up. :rollin

[scott]

Yes they are. Full stop. If he were the player you think he is, they would be a more successful team this year. That's not a knock on Victor. He's a rookie. But if you could transplant Prime Wemby onto this team instead of Current Wemby, the team would win 45 games and make the playoffs. That is how high he can get (and needs to reach to be a HoFer/GOAT candidate) and far he still has to go. Of course that doesn't mean the roster and posture aren't also factors. The team doesn't care about winning this year, and the team is both young and still playing guys with below-average ability. But this roster and this coach still won more games last year despite much more obviously wanting to lose. There are a number of little explanations for that, but the big one is that they reoriented their team to focus on a raw player and create the developmental environment they believe he needs.

I get that to you with your belief in Wemby, that seems ridiculous. But I also think you haven't separated Wemby the player from Wemby the hype train. I think you're projecting the frustration you're feeling that the reality doesn't match the potential onto Victor and combined with the scarring from Kawhi's whole thing, it's making you apply a level of desperation onto the situation that just isn't there. If the Spurs become a 30-win team next year, that's good, especially if it's the result of Victor improving and/or the roster getting better and showing more chemistry. I'd go so far as to say that that would be MUCH better than if they win 40 games after a Young trade. The Thunder only improved by three wins in Durant's sophomore season. They jumped to 50 wins their third year when Durant became an MVP candidate and doubled his win-share total. This really wasn't a supporting-cast thing either, as Durant at almost as many win-shares (16.1) as Jeff Green, Westbrook and Harden combined (17.2). The Thunder were still very much in the mode of selling cap space for assets. Most of their top-dollar guys were either deep in the rotation or weren't even on the team by the end of the year. No, this was literally a HoFer ascending and carrying his team to the playoffs.

Presti obviously had special luck in the 2007-2009 drafts, but it's much easier to find examples of that sort of story than the one where a team drafts a phenom, makes a quick trade and takes off. I think folks should look at what strategies have worked and failed in the past. There's a real chance Wemby starts putting pressure on the Spurs after year six if they haven't truly pivoted to contending. People can fear it happening earlier, but after year six is when Wemby will be eligible for his second extension, and him not signing that extension immediately will be the first time the Spurs will really feel pressure. Of course, with the DPE, it's unlikely he'd pass on it anyway. But putting it out there that he might want to wait to sign it that will be the signal to the Spurs that he might ask out. Any time before then, it's an unrealistic fear. (And yes, that timing is exactly why Young might be traded this summer and why Luka wasn't a risk to be traded before now).

This entire analysis requires a bit of circular reasoning. Would the Spurs be better if Wemby were in his prime? Sure. Would the Spurs be better if the roster were better? This should also be, unquestionably, yes. If you swapped Wemby with Chet, would OKC be better or worse? Would the Spurs be better or worse?

The fact is that you can't swap Wemby with his future self, he is only what he is. But the Spurs are not bad because Wemby isn't good enough. The Spurs are bad because the Spurs are bad. They were bad last year.

As Seventyniner points out, the Spurs are actually better since starting Tre and moving Wemby to C than they were last year (39% expected win % since, compared to a .268 actual Win % last year which was actually an overachievement. Their expected W% last year was .197. Source: https://insider.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/year/2023). Extrapolated over the course of 82 games, that a +16 expected win differential with Wemby as the main variable. Wemby hasn't made the team worse as a function of his rawness, the team is just bad to begin with and it had a coach who spend a good chunk of the season fucking around.

[Dejounte]

Michael Jordan in his prime couldn’t carry this season’s Spurs. I just don’t get that logic at all and it’s certainly an opinion very few people will agree with.

[Leetonidas]

The Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs discussed a trade involving Trae Young ahead of last week's trade deadline, according to Howard Beck of The Ringer.

Young has been the subject of several trade rumors, with the Lakers also reportedly interested.

The Hawks also kept Dejounte Murray past the trade deadline.

Beck adds that it is a "near certainty" that the Hawks will trade one or both of the players this summer.

HOWARD BECK/THE RINGER

It's gonna happen this summer tbh. Just watch

[LeBowen]

Well, it would've been dumb to do it now, would just ruin our lottery and we wouldn't get into the playoffs.

I'd give them their picks back with Keldon+Collins.
Or Devin+Collins with us keeping one of their picks.
They can forget about five picks they probably asked for.

[exstatic]

Bro...Wemby is doing things tim duncan did his rookie year.And tim won a chip in his second year.Tim had a good team helping him.
We need to do the same with wemby,We got lucky and drafted wemby...Now lets tak advantage and make moves to get this man help.
We cant wait 4 or 5 years to develop players like branham and sochan and all wright trash players he drafted.Wemby is ready now.

Tim joined a cohesive, ready made team that had already been to the WCFs. There’s no way to replicate that. Simply grabbing vets doesn’t make them cohesive. That team was also incinerated by the end of his 4th year,with only David carrying forward for two more years. They had to start over with draft picks.

[exstatic]

It's gonna happen this summer tbh. Just watch

ATL: We’re going to need all of our picks back, plus your pick this year, the Toronto pick, and the Chicago pick
SAS: Nope

End of discussion.

[Chinook]

Michael Jordan in his prime couldn’t carry this season’s Spurs. I just don’t get that logic at all and it’s certainly an opinion very few people will agree with.

This is obviously unfalsifiable, but I don't think there's a ton of evidence to support that idea. It just seems like a cool thing to say, but Wemby's struggling to have positive ratings in a number of impact stats, which supports the idea that he's not being held back by the roster.

[scott]

This is obviously unfalsifiable, but I don't think there's a ton of evidence to support that idea. It just seems like a cool thing to say, but Wemby's struggling to have positive ratings in a number of impact stats, which supports the idea that he's not being held back by the roster.

Wemby ranks #14 in the NBA (min 15 games played) in PIE, only 0.2 behind Kawhi Leonard and Jason Tatum. (Source: https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=GP*GE*15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=-1&sort=PIE)

This is just my opinion, but I'm gonna venture to say that the take that "The Spurs are bad because Wemby isn't good enough" is just flat out whack until such time you can identify some other measurable viable that shows otherwise.

[objective]

Wemby is raw but the team is full of scrubs, mediocre fringe players

Wemby isn't making teammates shoot like trash with usually wide open shots

Starting January 4, when Jones became the starter and the team 'turned a corner' into being less crappy:

Here's the 3 point shooting surrounding Wemby

Vassell. 37%. He's actually a legit good NBA player

Jones 34%. Should be a backup
Sochan 29.3%
Champagnie 32%.

Bench:

Keldon 30.4%
Collins 7.7%. As in 07.7%. Legendary scrub
Branham 29.2%
Osman 41.4%. The one guy who is making shots

It's not just the bricks, it's how wide open they are and how crowded it is inside.

The roster is scrubville

[timtonymanu]

Idk watching Vassell and Keldon chuck shots like they’re Kobe Bryant, I guess is fine to you people but replacing them with another chucker but actual star like Trae is “bad for the culture.” Lol.

I would have gladly traded for anyone yesterday to get rid of those inefficient losers.

[CGD]

It's gonna happen this summer tbh. Just watch

There is enough smoke, so maybe. The spurs are probably (correctly) drawing a line at giving back the 2025 pick. Id be ok with with worst two of 2025 SAS/ATL/CHI though, and another more distant pick

[JPB]

ATL: We’re going to need all of our picks back, plus your pick this year, the Toronto pick, and the Chicago pick
SAS: Nope

End of discussion.

-Trae: I want to to go to SA
- ATL: No, they don't want to give us everything they got
-Trae's agent: U sure U want a disgruntled star on your team? Watch the media tomrorow.
- Media the day after: Trae wants to leave, no way he's coming back. He only wants to go to SA.
- Agent: So...
-ATL: Hum, we do'nt know...
-Agent: Trae's the one on the court, you know, do you want to pay him an arm for 10 pts/2dime a game, then be forced to trade him one year later at a much lower price?
-Woj bomb: Trae to SA.

[objective]

And I forgot WESLEY

Who is shooting 20% since January 4

[Leetonidas]

ATL: We’re going to need all of our picks back, plus your pick this year, the Toronto pick, and the Chicago pick
SAS: Nope

End of discussion.

We get it, you're anti-Young

[exstatic]

-Trae: I want to to go to SA
- ATL: No, they don't want to give us everything they got
-Trae's agent: U sure U want a disgruntled star on your team? Watch the media tomrorow.
- Media the day after: Trae wants to leave, no way he's coming back. He only wants to go to SA.
- Agent: So...
-ATL: Hum, we do'nt know...
-Agent: Trae's the one on the court, you know, do you want to pay him an arm for 10 pts/2dime a game, then be forced to trade him one year later at a much lower price?
-Woj bomb: Trae to SA.

Or, with two years left, they might Dame him by sending him somewhere else.

[spurraider21]

We get it, you're anti-Young
until the spurs trade for him

then he'll be explaining why it was a great move

[Leetonidas]

Or, with two years left, they might Dame him by sending him somewhere else.

Except that the Spurs hold literally the best asset they could get in a young trade

[vy65]

The "spurs are bad because they feature Wemby" view has got to be an all-time try-hard/smartest guy in the room take.

[Seventyniner]

Sure, but that also only further demonstrates the point that it's not Wemby's rawness holding this team back - but the sheer ineptitude of the rest of the roster and the coaching decisions. If you can add wins via (a) roster improvement or (b) Wemby's natural development, then (a) is going to be far more incrementally effective than (b).

I think the stark difference in team performance between the first 33 games (Tre off the bench -11.2 net rating) and the last 22 (Tre starting, -3.7 net rating) is due to Pop and the strength of schedule, but not the ineptitude of the rest of the roster. The roster hasn't changed since Tre was put in the starting lineup, only Pop's lineups and rotations.

The average SRS for the first 33 games was 1.24, and for the last 22 games it was -0.84. Factoring that into the net ratings we get -10.0 for the first 33 games and -4.5 for the last 22. That narrows the gap some but it's still a big difference.

I should have looked at this earlier; adjusting for strength of schedule the Spurs played like 18-win team over the first 33 games and a 29-win team over the last 22. So I would use 29 wins as a baseline for next year's team if the roster doesn't change and Pop uses sane rotations. Maybe a bit more due to expected internal improvement.

(a) and (b) are not mutually exclusive, of course. Wemby will improve next year no matter what roster moves the Spurs make. There is even a reasonable case to be made that players (other than Wemby) on the current roster will improve in aggregate too. The only rotation players over the age of 24 are Collins and Osman.

[exstatic]

We get it, you're anti-Young

Hey, it was a discussion, albeit a short one.

I’m not completely anti Trae, just anti emptying the Cupboard for him, throwing all the eggs in one basket. I’ve proposed before something like returning their 27 pick and the Charlotte pick, plus send the Chicago pick. That still leave both picks this year, if Toronto conveys, plus the ATL 25 and the ATL 26 swap. That’s more than Toronto sent us for Kawhi, although that eventually turned into 4 total FRPs by flipping DD, Thad, and Jak,plus the Keldon pick that came direct.

Something like those picks, plus Keldon, Devonte (if you can change his guarantee date, and give him a bit more you can send his whole salary out), and Malaki works.

Oh, and Hollinger IS a hater. In the trade machine, he has ATL wins as -9 and ours as -20. :rollin

[Seventyniner]

Wemby hasn't made the team worse as a function of his rawness, the team is just bad to begin with and it had a coach who spend a good chunk of the season fucking around.

Damn, I should have read down before responding to your first post. Totally agree. :bobo

[scott]

I think the stark difference in team performance between the first 33 games (Tre off the bench -11.2 net rating) and the last 22 (Tre starting, -3.7 net rating) is due to Pop and the strength of schedule, but not the ineptitude of the rest of the roster. The roster hasn't changed since Tre was put in the starting lineup, only Pop's lineups and rotations.

The average SRS for the first 33 games was 1.24, and for the last 22 games it was -0.84. Factoring that into the net ratings we get -10.0 for the first 33 games and -4.5 for the last 22. That narrows the gap some but it's still a big difference.

I should have looked at this earlier; adjusting for strength of schedule the Spurs played like 18-win team over the first 33 games and a 29-win team over the last 22. So I would use 29 wins as a baseline for next year's team if the roster doesn't change and Pop uses sane rotations. Maybe a bit more due to expected internal improvement.

(a) and (b) are not mutually exclusive, of course. Wemby will improve next year no matter what roster moves the Spurs make. There is even a reasonable case to be made that players (other than Wemby) on the current roster will improve in aggregate too. The only rotation players over the age of 24 are Collins and Osman.

I think comparing expected wins is the right approach to evaluating things.

The ineptitude of the roster provides the maximum potential of the team, whereas the coaching decisions guide the efficiency towards reaching that potential. Like I said, the team is bad because it's a bad team. But if we look at the expected win% last season (.197) compared to the expected win % since Wemby entered the SL (39%), that gives us clear quantifiable evidence that Wemby is a variable that is making the team worse. I calculated +16 on expected wins comparing all of last year to the last 22 games. You've gone a step further with some SOS adjustment, which revises this downward slightly to +13 wins, but the point remains the same. Nothing points to Wemby making this team worse.

[timtonymanu]

We get it, you're anti-Young

Yet he loved Jeff Errors! Uh huh!

[RC_Drunkford]

I don't think people here understand that the main reason why ATL has a bad defense, is that they give up the majority of shots at the rim. You know who teams don't want to challenge at the rim? Victor Wembanyama. Clint Capela basically went from close to Rudy Gobert type rim protector numbers to Jokic's.

Out of 540 NBA players DeAndre Hunter is #503 in defensive rating. Dejounte Murray is 496 only 2 places ahead of Doug McBuckets. Malaki Branham is #492 and Cedi Osman is #487. Trae Young is #461. Zach Collins is #456. Clint Capela is #451. So the Hawks starters are the equivalent to the Spurs Collins/Osman/McDermott/Branham line up. No wonder they suck on defense.

In the last 3 years they were 2nd, 7th and are currently 9th (only 0.3 away from 7th) in offensive rating. If they had at least a middle of the pack type of defense they would be a serious playoff team with Young running point. And if the Spurs can replace Champagnie with a better 3-and-D SF, while shipping out Collins and playing a good rim protecting big off the bench, that would improve the defense tremendously and allow them to hide Young on defense. I've seen enough people here advocate for the Spurs to start Osman and he's not a better defender than Trae according to statistics.

Trae's contract is at 43 million next season. Do you know what we'll pay for Tre Jones, Zach Collins and Keldon Johnson by then? 45 million. Y'all kill me with these stupid takes.

The same people that say "Victor needs the ball in his hands" are the same complaining about the other players not passing it to him. What does that tell you? He does not initiate the offense. So you need a guy with the ball in his hands who sets him up. Victor is not the main ball handler on the perimeter. Aside from his occassional pull up 3, he needs to be set up. And the right guy for that is a ball handler with the ability to find him for lobs and draw multiple defenders. That's who Trae Young is. It's not rocket science.

[RC_Drunkford]

Also everything the Spurs have done cap space wise indicates that they want to bring in a free agent.

Declining contracts for Keldon, Tre Jones and Vassell.

Low long term contracts for end of the bench pieces like Champagnie and Bassey.

If you want to utilize the cap space, you need to do it now, while Wemby is on a rookie contract. People here have been talking about that cap space for years while the Spurs have used it for teams to offload contracts and a Zach Collins extension. You got the chance to bring in an All-Star who fits the timeline, a position of need and actually wants to play here. He's not a 2-year rental exstatic (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=20) . And Atlanta won't trade him to another team that likely views him as that and therefore doesn't want to give up the farm while the Spurs control the Hawks picks for the next 3 years. The guy clearly wants to play here and you can extend him. Do you have to pivot to create cap space once Wemby is due for an extension? Probably, but that's 2027.

The plan has to be to bring in an All-Star via trade while Wemby is on a rookie deal to start opening a championship window. Not only that, but until 2027 you'd still have draft picks coming in, even if you give ATL their picks back for Young. Maybe even 2 this offseason and you might still have the additional CHI pick in 25. So in the grand scheme of things, you want to add an All-Star while having some draft picks develop off the bench, where at least one of them can develop into a future All-Star. If you hit on one of these picks you then have a potential big 4 putting you over the top or at least making it possible for you to offload Tre Young while still having a big 3, once your cap space gets tight.

The scenario could easily be that the Spurs draft a Dillingham or Topic and by 2027 they could possibly replace Tre once his extension kicks in. The Spurs could then pivot with another trade for a player at a different position. They need to build a roster for a dominant run and it can't be done just by drafting. With the large amount of picks we got, it has to be a combination of both.

You got Wemby and Vassell. You trade for one star and you draft one out of let's say 4 picks. If you then are able to build a deep bench unit alongside of it, you're in for a huge title run.

[scott]

I thought we were holding the cap space for Corey Maggette and Jermaine O'Neal tbh

[mo7888]

There is enough smoke, so maybe. The spurs are probably (correctly) drawing a line at giving back the 2025 pick. Id be ok with with worst two of 2025 SAS/ATL/CHI though, and another more distant pick

That makes much more sense to me

[mo7888]

-Trae: I want to to go to SA
- ATL: No, they don't want to give us everything they got
-Trae's agent: U sure U want a disgruntled star on your team? Watch the media tomrorow.
- Media the day after: Trae wants to leave, no way he's coming back. He only wants to go to SA.
- Agent: So...
-ATL: Hum, we do'nt know...
-Agent: Trae's the one on the court, you know, do you want to pay him an arm for 10 pts/2dime a game, then be forced to trade him one year later at a much lower price?
-Woj bomb: Trae to SA.

This is the way...

[spurraider21]

I don't think people here understand that the main reason why ATL has a bad defense, is that they give up the majority of shots at the rim. You know who teams don't want to challenge at the rim? Victor Wembanyama. Clint Capela basically went from close to Rudy Gobert type rim protector numbers to Jokic's.

Out of 540 NBA players DeAndre Hunter is #503 in defensive rating. Dejounte Murray is 496 only 2 places ahead of Doug McBuckets. Malaki Branham is #492 and Cedi Osman is #487. Trae Young is #461. Zach Collins is #456. Clint Capela is #451. So the Hawks starters are the equivalent to the Spurs Collins/Osman/McDermott/Branham line up. No wonder they suck on defense.

In the last 3 years they were 2nd, 7th and are currently 9th (only 0.3 away from 7th) in offensive rating. If they had at least a middle of the pack type of defense they would be a serious playoff team with Young running point. And if the Spurs can replace Champagnie with a better 3-and-D SF, while shipping out Collins and playing a good rim protecting big off the bench, that would improve the defense tremendously and allow them to hide Young on defense. I've seen enough people here advocate for the Spurs to start Osman and he's not a better defender than Trae according to statistics.

Trae's contract is at 43 million next season. Do you know what we'll pay for Tre Jones, Zach Collins and Keldon Johnson by then? 45 million. Y'all kill me with these stupid takes.

The same people that say "Victor needs the ball in his hands" are the same complaining about the other players not passing it to him. What does that tell you? He does not initiate the offense. So you need a guy with the ball in his hands who sets him up. Victor is not the main ball handler on the perimeter. Aside from his occassional pull up 3, he needs to be set up. And the right guy for that is a ball handler with the ability to find him for lobs and draw multiple defenders. That's who Trae Young is. It's not rocket science.
i agree with most of this.

however, victor has been initiating the offense quite a bit lately. he's handling pick and rolls somewhat regularly. its not every time down, but its there

[JPB]

Except that the Spurs hold literally the best asset they could get in a young trade

Yup, contrary to Miami who didn't have the assets. They tried, they really tried to please Dame's request and find a deal with Miami but that was just not possible... ATL won't find a better partner than SA, they're in another conference and they could symbolically get back all they gave for Murray and then some... If Trae really says he wants to come here, planets are perfectly aligned.

[spurraider21]

I thought we were holding the cap space for Corey Maggette and Jermaine O'Neal tbh
brad miller, tyreke evans

[objective]

Some of the lack of enthusiasm for Young or anyone in a trade is I think people overestimate the value of the Hawks picks to any team that isn't Atlanta.

They're more valuable to Atlanta because of the freedom it offers them, they can go scorched earth or try to win with Dejounte

But it they keep Young, they're probably locked into a play-in at the worst for the next couple of years, and Young and company in a single game eliminating is very very tough as they've proven.

Basically the teams beneath them are rebuilding or stuck in mediocrity, leaving ATL as the 10th seed by default. They're a big risk for making the playoffs because Detroit, Charlotte, Washington, Toronto ... They're going to be worse most likely and Brooklyn can't really get better until 2025 free agency. And if Chicago loses DeRozan and Vucevic continues to decline, they might be worse also.

[CorrectCrusader]

Wemby ranks #14 in the NBA (min 15 games played) in PIE, only 0.2 behind Kawhi Leonard and Jason Tatum. (Source: https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=GP*GE*15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=-1&sort=PIE)

This is just my opinion, but I'm gonna venture to say that the take that "The Spurs are bad because Wemby isn't good enough" is just flat out whack until such time you can identify some other measurable viable that shows otherwise.


But wemby isn't even top 50 in farts per minute, all his other stats are meaningless!

[CorrectCrusader]

Or, with two years left, they might Dame him by sending him somewhere else.

lol so the spurs would just get their lotto picks instead? Did you think this through at all

[Bruno]

To me, it's a little premature to seriously consider Young as a possible trade target.

First, Hawks won't trade him unless he asks to be traded. Staying mediocre with Young is still way better for them than rebuilding through the draft. New lottery draft odds makes it harder than before to do that full rebuild. Spurs just got very lucky to get Wembanyama.

Second, I want to have a clearer picture on the 2024 NBA draft. How good will be the best PGs available? What pick(s) will Spurs have?


Now, if in three months, you're in the case of Atlanta failing to make the playoffs with an unhappy Young and the draft not looking good at the PG spot, I would be all for a Trae trade. He is a polarizing player on and off the court but I'm quite a fan of him and I think he would work great with Victor.

[tbdog]

I thought we were holding the cap space for Corey Maggette and Jermaine O'Neal tbh

That's going back.

[scott]

That's going back.

Though there was a LONG break in the middle of my posting career, I've been here awhile :lol

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

I hope we don’t trade for Young. Atlanta is smart to be shopping him because he is going to be trying to get a huge extension soon. I’m not saying Young is a bad player, but I do think he is a highly flawed player that will be difficult to build a championship contender around.


people think our defense is bad now….. it will be worse with him on the roster, unless we can get a ton of really good defenders to mitigate his shortcomings. Our defense is bad now and we have two guys playing the point that actually give good effort on that end and aren’t totally bad at playing defense. How do folks think it will look with a guy who is worse than both of the guys we have on the roster now and with less talent because we have to highly overpay to keep Young and trade away picks to get him? The Hawks literally tried to build a roster with 2 way type wings to assist covering his short comings and they haven’t been able to consistently do it.

The other thing that makes me laugh at some of the comments about getting him is the idea our shooting will just automatically improve if we add Young. Dude isn’t the most efficient shooter and he needs to have the ball in his hands to be effective. Will the coaching staff succumb to Young’s style and just turn Victor into a more talented Capela or will they convince Young to take a bit of a back seat offensively and let Victor as well as the other players cook more? I’m not saying totally take the ball out of Young’s hands because in my opinion his best attribute is his passing, but he definitely likes to dribble the life out of the ball similar to Harden.

i definitely understand the fans urgency with wanting to win and thinking it’s a no brainer to go out and get an All star Caliber player if we can. I want us to win soon also, but I also don’t want the team to overreact and overpay for a player who would definitely help, but might not be as much help and some might think.

[Ice009]

Someone mentioned that Trae was a Spurs fan growing up. Is that true? Where is he from? Is he from Texas/near Texas? If he is/was a Spurs fans, that makes me more interested in getting him as he'd be someone that really wants to be on the Spurs.

[Mr. Body]

Someone mentioned that Trae was a Spurs fan growing up. Is that true? Where is he from? Is he from Texas/near Texas? If he is/was a Spurs fans, that makes me more interested in getting him as he'd be someone that really wants to be on the Spurs.

Born in Lubbock, dad played for Tech, grew up in Norman, OK.

[rankingtear]

Lean on your strengths. You are 2/3 on the way to a versatile offense/defense core and have 5 projected lottery picks in the next 2 years. Trae is the antithesis of how you should play to adapt to any kind of defense/offense in the playoffs. He runs a heavy pick and roll offense and you can't implement a switching defense with him. Him being a second option does not make sense. He holds the ball longer than any other player in the league outside of Luka. He is 20% on spot ups, 30% on handoffs and 7% on cuts things that would complement Victor when Victor is your primary option, this isn't Jamal Murray or Maxey. If you want him as your first option so that this team is more watchable sure get him, but thinking he would be a great second option is just wishful thinking based on nothing he has shown so far. Victor would play more and more like a wing as he develops, off ball ability and defensive versatility would be more complementary to him as he grows.

[exstatic]

Some of the lack of enthusiasm for Young or anyone in a trade is I think people overestimate the value of the Hawks picks to any team that isn't Atlanta.

They're more valuable to Atlanta because of the freedom it offers them, they can go scorched earth or try to win with Dejounte

But it they keep Young, they're probably locked into a play-in at the worst for the next couple of years, and Young and company in a single game eliminating is very very tough as they've proven.

Basically the teams beneath them are rebuilding or stuck in mediocrity, leaving ATL as the 10th seed by default. They're a big risk for making the playoffs because Detroit, Charlotte, Washington, Toronto ... They're going to be worse most likely and Brooklyn can't really get better until 2025 free agency. And if Chicago loses DeRozan and Vucevic continues to decline, they might be worse also.

Theyre not in the play in this year. They’re not even close. Why would you expect them to be better next year?

[objective]

Theyre not in the play in this year. They’re not even close. Why would you expect them to be better next year?

If the playoffs started today, they would be the 10th seed and in the play-in

And they're 3 wins up (2.5 games) on Brooklyn

[Jordan Jackson]

Wemby and Trae have the same trainer. The Spurs know all they need to know. They are going to go for it. Whether they succeed or not is another story. Lakers/Klutch might be a problem.

[Mr. Body]

Yes, that's right. Chicago and Atlanta are both comfortably in the play-in at the moment (Chicago more so), a reason I think both teams decided to stay put.

[scott]

Theyre not in the play in this year. They’re not even close. Why would you expect them to be better next year?

They are very much in the play-in this year. Currently sitting in 10th, with no real threat from below. Do you ever bother to research anything before you hit send?

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

Trae and Vic could run a massively sick 2 man offense

[Mr. Body]

I mean, ATL is seven games under .500, another sign of why the play-in was a lousy idea. :lol

[exstatic]

My bad. Hadn’t checked in a week or so.

[Seventyniner]

To me, it's a little premature to seriously consider Young as a possible trade target.

First, Hawks won't trade him unless he asks to be traded. Staying mediocre with Young is still way better for them than rebuilding through the draft. New lottery draft odds makes it harder than before to do that full rebuild. Spurs just got very lucky to get Wembanyama.

Second, I want to have a clearer picture on the 2024 NBA draft. How good will be the best PGs available? What pick(s) will Spurs have?


Now, if in three months, you're in the case of Atlanta failing to make the playoffs with an unhappy Young and the draft not looking good at the PG spot, I would be all for a Trae trade. He is a polarizing player on and off the court but I'm quite a fan of him and I think he would work great with Victor.

Isn't draft night the earliest that the Hawks could even possibly trade Trae to the Spurs? If so, your questions will be answered by that point.

[Seventyniner]

Someone mentioned that Trae was a Spurs fan growing up. Is that true? Where is he from? Is he from Texas/near Texas? If he is/was a Spurs fans, that makes me more interested in getting him as he'd be someone that really wants to be on the Spurs.

It's possible he was a big admirer of the Beautiful Game Spurs. He was around 15 at that time.

He was 5-10 years old when the Spurs were a juggernaut with prime Tim.

[Dejounte]

Tbh people hated Parker’s guts and if he started on another team he would be viewed as a non-winner and selfish as people are saying Trae is right now

[Chinook]

This is just my opinion, but I'm gonna venture to say that the take that "The Spurs are bad because Wemby isn't good enough" is just flat out whack until such time you can identify some other measurable viable that shows otherwise.

First, I didn't say the Spurs were bad because Wemby isn't good enough. That's what you got based on the response. What I actually said was "They're only so bad because he's raw." Then I immediately expanded on that point by saying that once Wemby is closer to his peak, the team will have a better record despite its lack of talent. To support that I brought up the 2009 and 2010 Thunder team which saw an increase in wins from 23 to 50 based almost entirely on Durant becoming an MVP candidate.

So to say it plain, the Spurs have three things going against them right now that are contributing to their poor record. 1) Their roster isn't good. 2) They do not have a win-now posture. 3) They lack a star who's able to carry the team. If they had any of those three, their record would be better. So if they had a star who could carry them, they'd have a better record. They don't have that right now, which is why I can say, "They're only so bad because he's raw." The point is not to blame him for being a rookie. But it's to explain where he is right now and why that should factor into what moves the Spurs should make. Victor still has growing to do, and that growth doesn't depend on them making an immediate trade for a young max player. That's all I'm going to say about that, since I know you fully understand my opinion on what I'd like the Spurs to do is not that I want them to stand pat and just rely on their guys improving.


Wemby ranks #14 in the NBA (min 15 games played) in PIE, only 0.2 behind Kawhi Leonard and Jason Tatum. (Source: https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ad...ir=-1&sort=PIE (https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=GP*GE*15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=-1&sort=PIE))

So I won't bury the lede and say right away that I hadn't paid enough attention to how the stats have changed recently. I now see that Wemby has climbed in terms of team-relevant advanced stats on BBRef, and I'll take the L in that respect. It's not as easy at it used to be to find a suite of stats to compare in order to come to a fuller conclusion. Apparently a lot of the advanced stats we've been able to use over the past few years are dead now. Disney/ESPN killed RAPTOR and RPM. I can't say I've looked a ton into PIE before. From a bit of a search, it looks like it's the NBA's attempt to adjust Hollinger's PER in order to incorporate more defensive stats. It would make sense then that Wemby is higher there than he is in PER (22nd). They're both good numbers, obviously. But if PIE has a similar statistical basis as PER, then it's usage based, favoring players that end a lot of possessions. It tends to correlate with usage and not team production, though since teams with good players tend to win games and superstars tend to use a ton of possessions, it still correlates somewhat with good teams.

A stat that scales better with winning is win-shares, mainly because it's supposed to align with expected wins, which are supposed to average out to equal actual wins when looking at the whole league. It's true then that players on successful teams will have more "wins" to divide up than players on bad teams. Nevertheless, Victor ranks 189th in the league in that category, behind Jones and Vassell and ahead of Keldon by a hair. It changes somewhat when you look at it as a per-minute stat, but it's basically a 30-spot increase for all four Spurs. Win-shares is a stat with strengths and weaknesses like any other, but taking it at face value, it doesn't really show Wemby as a guy being held back by his team as much as it looks like Poeltl and later Collins provided a ton of the win-shares last year and the other players have improved but haven't been able to make up that gap. Again in the context of this one stat, you could argue that Poeltl's impact on the team is being undersold when compared to Wemby, though I do think Victor would have more win-shares if he were this version of himself the whole year.

There are other stats, mainly BPM and VORP, and those place Wemby much more highly, though still in the 35-range rather than the teens. BPM is supposed to be a field-guide version of RAPM, though that doesn't mean it has the same strength. That's more where it seems like the NBA would rank him, and close to where I would probably put him purely subjectively. I would put Wemby in the 20-35 range, with his struggles to play a lot of minutes being a big part of that range being so wide. To put things another way, Wemby should be in the conversation for top-10 before the Spurs start thinking about contending with him as their best player. It's easy to assume he'll get that next year. But then you start listing players out, and it's not obvious that Wemby is going to be in the top-10. He could, but like Durant (and Lebron) before him, it might take another year or two.

[thiste]

« Why The San Antonio Spurs Must Trade For Trae Young This Off-Season »

With no legitimate contention path in sight for the foreseeable future, Trae Young trade rumors are loudly echoing across the NBA world. Enter the San Antonio Spurs, who desire a star to pair with Victor Wembanyama and have the picks to pull the trigger...

https://www.lineups.com/articles/trae-young-trade-spurs-2-13-24/

A few interesting graphs & paragraphs in there.

https://www.lineups.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Trae-Young-Passing-768x576.png

[Chinook]

I think comparing expected wins is the right approach to evaluating things.

The ineptitude of the roster provides the maximum potential of the team, whereas the coaching decisions guide the efficiency towards reaching that potential. Like I said, the team is bad because it's a bad team. But if we look at the expected win% last season (.197) compared to the expected win % since Wemby entered the SL (39%), that gives us clear quantifiable evidence that Wemby is a variable that is making the team worse. I calculated +16 on expected wins comparing all of last year to the last 22 games. You've gone a step further with some SOS adjustment, which revises this downward slightly to +13 wins, but the point remains the same. Nothing points to Wemby making this team worse.

I don't see why expected wins should be the metric of a player's impact when they're on the court for the actual wins. The Spurs last year overperformed their expectations. If we're supposed to be looking at a .39 win percentage team over the last 22 games, then them actually winning .27 should be a concern. Last year wasn't just a smooth statistical year either. Guys were hurt, trades happened. The team lost arguably its best player in a trade and lost another to injury most of the season. The Spurs' best lineup last year only got 25 minutes together, as opposed to their best lineup this year already getting 78 minutes. I completely agree with the logic of looking at the team after they fixed their rotation as being more informative, but I also don't think it's fair to compare that to the chaos of the previous year without the context. The posture was even less win-now. The lack of a star was even more apparent. So was the roster worse? As I said in my other post, Poeltl is an underrated part of the story. But why was that team able to scrap together wins beyond what their talent should've allowed but this team can't seem to hold onto a lead? Why was last year's team able to beat 11 teams above .500 while this year's team has only been able to beat four?

I do think you can make an argument that the team is facing a challenge of trying to integrate a raw star and that that is having effects on their ability to put together a lot of wins. That's not the only reason, and as objective keeps pointing out, it doesn't make sense to believe Wemby has much to do with how guys can't seem to shoot anymore. It looks like last year the Spurs were a better team in clutch situations, though they weren't good last year either. Were they better able to execute a game plan last year? Are teams taking them more seriously this year and not letting themselves be caught off guard as often? I think you can actually make that argument. But I also think there's a reason why folks thought the Spurs last year underperformed compared to what they would've done if they were healthy. The scrappiness we see in some of those failed fourth-quarter comebacks was stronger last year. That's not Victor's fault, but I do think integrating him given his rawness makes it harder to have the same level of sustained stochastic bursts.

[scott]

What I actually said was "They're only so bad because he's raw."


the Spurs have three things going against them right now that are contributing to their poor record. 1) Their roster isn't good. 2) They do not have a win-now posture. 3) They lack a star who's able to carry the team.

Perhaps you can see the incongruousness of this argument. You say the Spurs are ONLY bad because of reason X... but then go on to list 3 different explanations why they are bad (two of which being the things I've essentially said), none of which are reason X. On the surface, it may seem like your reason 3 ("They lack a star who's able to carry the team") is the same as "Wemby is raw", but they are not and they are actually completely unrelated. It's not Wemby's fault he isn't yet a star who's able to carry the team, after all, he is but a 20-year old rookie. But that is altogether different from stating that Wemby's rawness is the reason the Spurs are bad, when in fact his impact stats tell us otherwise.

If Wemby's rawness is what made the team bad (and the distinction between saying that and saying "he isn't good enough" is semantic in nature), then he wouldn't rank in the 75% in on/off, for example (Source: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5213/onoff#tab-team_efficiency). Is this number largely carried by his defensive prowess? Yes, but defense still remains 50% of the game, after all. They fact that by any measure I am aware of this basketball team is better with Wemby on the court, than it is off it, should be demonstration enough that Wemby's rawness is by no means having a negative impact on this team and making the Spurs "bad" ("Full stop", as you put it). The notion that his rawness it the root of the teams problems is incomprehensible. Would the team be better if he was at his peak? Yes. You could also say that about any player on any team who is not at their peak.

[scott]

I don't see why expected wins should be the metric of a player's impact when they're on the court for the actual wins. The Spurs last year overperformed their expectations. If we're supposed to be looking at a .39 win percentage team over the last 22 games, then them actually winning .27 should be a concern. Last year wasn't just a smooth statistical year either. Guys were hurt, trades happened. The team lost arguably its best player in a trade and lost another to injury most of the season. The Spurs' best lineup last year only got 25 minutes together, as opposed to their best lineup this year already getting 78 minutes. I completely agree with the logic of looking at the team after they fixed their rotation as being more informative, but I also don't think it's fair to compare that to the chaos of the previous year without the context. The posture was even less win-now. The lack of a star was even more apparent. So was the roster worse? As I said in my other post, Poeltl is an underrated part of the story. But why was that team able to scrap together wins beyond what their talent should've allowed but this team can't seem to hold onto a lead? Why was last year's team able to beat 11 teams above .500 while this year's team has only been able to beat four?

I do think you can make an argument that the team is facing a challenge of trying to integrate a raw star and that that is having effects on their ability to put together a lot of wins. That's not the only reason, and as objective (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4663) keeps pointing out, it doesn't make sense to believe Wemby has much to do with how guys can't seem to shoot anymore. It looks like last year the Spurs were a better team in clutch situations, though they weren't good last year either. Were they better able to execute a game plan last year? Are teams taking them more seriously this year and not letting themselves be caught off guard as often? I think you can actually make that argument. But I also think there's a reason why folks thought the Spurs last year underperformed compared to what they would've done if they were healthy. The scrappiness we see in some of those failed fourth-quarter comebacks was stronger last year. That's not Victor's fault, but I do think integrating him given his rawness makes it harder to have the same level of sustained stochastic bursts.

There is a straight forward explanation of why EW% is a good measurement tool: because variance is a real thing. Do you get a trophy at the end of the season for having a good EW%? No, of course not - but that metric is a good indicator of how well a team performed with variance accounted for. A 41-41 team who wins all it's games by a single point but loses all its games by 20+ is much different than a team who wins all its games by 20+ and loses all it's games by 1. Yes, they are both 41-41, but there is a statistically identifiable difference in the quality of those teams.

There are purists who will undoubtedly ignore this Bill James/Sabermetrics/Billy Beane Moneyball stuff... but since we are talking about things like PIE, RAPTOR, BPM, WS, etc... that doesn't appear to be the case here. If WS is a valuable metric for you, certainly EW% should be too.

Vassell's absence last year that you bring up is a fantastic call out and a Key Variable. His On/Off also ranks in the 75+ percentile this year (led by his defensive On/Off, quite notably). Just as with Wemby, the Spurs are better when Devin is on the floor.

Along those lines... the player who's on/off is the most pronounced on the 2023-24 San Antonio Spurs: Tre Jones, who ranks in the 97th percentile in on/off. Of course, when evaluating on/off it's not just the "on" that matters... and in the case of Tre, Devin and Wemby... their high ratings are also a function of just how bad the "off" is (meaning, the players who replace them when they go to the bench).

[Spursfanfromafar]

The other point that I wanted to add to what you say, scott is that there is no contradiction between saying that Wemby isn't an all star as yet and saying that the team needs to improve around him. Now one could look at KD's rookie and sophomore seasons and say that's a model but where is the talent around Wemby that matched with that of KD's support cast (Westbrook joined in the second season and Harden and Ibaka in the following ones). Getting such talent, two future HoFs and one very useful role player, isn't a given from the draft and I don't trust Brian Wright based on his track record either.

My point is that the Spurs need to improve around Wemby as much as he does and it will not help him improve or the Spurs improve if they prefer for suck for years by relying only on the draft and the existing mediocre talent beyond Vassell. Besides Wemby has shown that he is no ordinary 1st pick and is already elite on the defensive end (elite here is just a qualifying word..he is other wordly on defense). Getting more competent three point shooters, playmakers and on the ball defenders are a must for the Spurs to continue their progression instead of being a Dr Jekyll (with Wemby, Vassell and Tre Jones on) and Mr Hyde (when Wemby leaves the floor) team for the foreseeable future with the only addendums being inexperienced rookies.

There is a middle ground between building on a "timeline" with a long horizon and being overzealous and getting too many veterans and going the Cleveland of James and Pelicans of Anthony Davis way. That middle ground is to use a portion of the draft war chest to get a functionally good player to complement Wemby, besides a veteran or two more and using the rest of the draft assets to groom more talent. It isn't rocket science.

[rankingtear]

Perhaps you can see the incongruousness of this argument. You say the Spurs are ONLY bad because of reason X... but then go on to list 3 different explanations why they are bad (two of which being the things I've essentially said), none of which are reason X. On the surface, it may seem like your reason 3 ("They lack a star who's able to carry the team") is the same as "Wemby is raw", but they are not and they are actually completely unrelated. It's not Wemby's fault he isn't yet a star who's able to carry the team, after all, he is but a 20-year old rookie. But that is altogether different from stating that Wemby's rawness is the reason the Spurs are bad, when in fact his impact stats tell us otherwise.

If Wemby's rawness is what made the team bad (and the distinction between saying that and saying "he isn't good enough" is semantic in nature), then he wouldn't rank in the 75% in on/off, for example (Source: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/5213/onoff#tab-team_efficiency). Is this number largely carried by his defensive prowess? Yes, but defense still remains 50% of the game, after all. They fact that by any measure I am aware of this basketball team is better with Wemby on the court, than it is off it, should be demonstration enough that Wemby's rawness is by no means having a negative impact on this team and making the Spurs "bad" ("Full stop", as you put it). The notion that his rawness it the root of the teams problems is incomprehensible. Would the team be better if he was at his peak? Yes. You could also say that about any player on any team who is not at their peak.

He is an inefficient high turnover high usage guy. His impact on defense relative to other rim protectors is much closer to his impact on offense relative to other high usage players.

[Chinook]

Perhaps you can see the incongruousness of this argument.

You still seem to be missing the point. You keep reading it as "They're ONLY so bad because he's raw" and interpreting that to say Wemby is the sole reason why they're bad and that it's somehow his fault. The way I keep saying it is "They're only SO bad because he's raw". I've consistently explained directly after that statement exactly why I think that. If Wemby were more actualized, the team would be better. You and some other posters haven't committed to that statement one way or the other, and that is whatever because it's not something we can test. By the time Wemby is that much better, the team will hopefully also be better. But if you agree that a better version of Wemby would result in a team that plays better, then you agree with the point I'm making. If you still believe you don't, then you aren't interpreting the point I'm making as I am intending it.

You need all three of those factors to be as bad as the Spurs have been. My point is that that third condition is also true. A lot of people don't think that third condition is true. They don't appreciate how far Wemby has to go and where he is on his timeline. My point is that if Wemby were as far along as those posters believed, he would be carrying the roster, as bad as it is, to more wins. That is not blaming Victor. It's not his fault that some posters refuse to look at him objectively. Dude is having a successful year adjusting to the NBA and exploring his talents with as little pressure as possible considering his hype. You were very adamant that you considered this year a failure because the team didn't see the increase in wins you felt they should have had with him. And rather than stepping back and saying "Maybe I should reevaluate and give him the same grace other rookies get rather than expecting him to be the super-GOAT and have a legendary career from jump", you instead blame the team for the in disconnect, and then you extend your blame of the team to be what Wemby might be thinking and using that to feed into concerns that he's going to want to leave. That creates this feedback loop that seemingly justifies why the Spurs should feel a bunch of urgency to make huge moves to improve around Wemby before it's too late.

I just have to throw my hands up at it all. I'm not acting superior and saying I'm reasonable in the face of your irrationality or anything like that. But I basically didn't pay any attention to the Wemby hype until right before the draft. I watched a couple of highlights here or there, but in reality I was more concerned with the other prospects given the lotto odds. I posted way more about Scoot, Miller and the Thompsons than Wemby. So for me, the Spurs winning the lotto was just cool. It was nice that they would get the guy they want (whoever that would be). Don't get me wrong -- I flew to Vegas and watched him play his first game in a Spurs uniform. So I cared, but it wasn't the culmination of years of wanting him like it was for a lot of people. That might make me blind to the true extent of the gift the Spurs received. I may be less objective in this regard than you then. But from my vantage point, I have very few expectations for him beyond him being a good player who improves and will hopefully be the key to another era of winning.

So for me, it doesn't mean anything to go "oh, Victor's not ready yet." That doesn't cost me anything. I wouldn't expect anyone else to be ready in his situation, even other blue-chippers. Like with anyone else, I think there's plenty of time to figure this out. I am fully prepared for years of building and for a lot more losses. I've watched nearly every game despite that because I'm interested in seeing them grow. I don't have any expectations complicating that enjoyment. I was frustrated when Pop was doing suboptimal things, but then he fixed them and I was fine again. I want the team to be aggressive in adding talent, but more than anything I want them to do whatever plan they have in mind to make this work with confidence. Because I don't see any special pressure to win with Victor now, I think they have the whole playbook available for how they could proceed.

To wrap that tangent up and tied it back in, I think it's might help to understand where I'm coming from when I say "They're only so bad because he's raw." It's not about blame because I don't think anything blame-worthy is actually happening. I don't see this season as something someone has to be held accountable for. I of course want them to progress, but I also think progression zoomed down to the daily level is going to look a lot like stagnation and am prepared for that. Maybe I'm too prepared for that. Maybe I'm catching a bit of a whiff from old habits. But I think it's too early to tell. Regardless, I think I'm done explaining this. I can't make you accept the validity of my argument, and I certainly can't make you agree with it. If you think I'm off the reservation or have a hate boner for Victor, I can't stop you. Obviously we're going to continue talking about the games and the moves the team can make going forward. But maybe after seeing where I'm coming from, we can avoid some of the further flash points over the semantics of some of the posts.

[Spursfanfromafar]

He is an inefficient high turnover high usage guy. His impact on defense relative to other rim protectors is much closer to his impact on offense relative to other high usage players.

His efficiency has increased steadily month after month on offense. On defense, his DPM (Defensive Plus Minus) depsite playing with a bunch of lousy on ball defenders is the top 10 in the league and 4th among bigs. Check -
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

His DPM is on the 98th percentile and OPM on 77th percentile. Only Joel Embiid has a better two way rating than that among top 10 defenders. Wemby is already a top 25-30 player in the league and yes, he still has some ways to go based on his talent and work ethic. But he isn't the normal rookie/inexperienced player who needs patient handling and kid gloves and a large horizon to become an All NBA player. He is on track to get there next season. Now that means the Spurs should be able to get more talent around him to maximise his ability and output on floor.

[Chinook]

The other point that I wanted to add to what you say, scott (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=150) is that there is no contradiction between saying that Wemby isn't an all star as yet and saying that the team needs to improve around him. Now one could look at KD's rookie and sophomore seasons and say that's a model but where is the talent around Wemby that matched with that of KD's support cast (Westbrook joined in the second season and Harden and Ibaka in the following ones). Getting such talent, two future HoFs and one very useful role player, isn't a given from the draft and I don't trust Brian Wright based on his track record either.

If the Spurs don't think Wright can draft, they need to get rid of him. That's the main part of the job for the time being. The Spurs have to proceed with confidence in that area, even though I understand why fans would be more uncertain.

Anyway, Durant got a better supporting cast, but as I said, he saw a massive explosion in his own performance. He went from an inefficient underdeveloped player to a talented player on a poor team to a superstar in three years. Jeff Green improved. Westbrook improved. Harden was a decent player from jump. But Durant gained eight win-shares by himself and took his WS/48 from .040 to .132 to .238 (which is amazing, in cause you aren't familiar with the stat). He went from 179th in his first season, to 56th in the league in his second year to second in his third year. He did that on a young team that was not trying to win until his fifth season. I know KD's GOAT candidacy is always going to be complicated by his choices and antics, but his early career is makes a ton of sense to look to for Wemby's, much more than Lebron's, Jordan's, Duncan's or Doncic's.

[rankingtear]

His efficiency has increased steadily month after month on offense. On defense, his DPM (Defensive Plus Minus) depsite playing with a bunch of lousy on ball defenders is the top 10 in the league and 4th among bigs. Check -
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

His DPM is on the 98th percentile and OPM on 77th percentile. Only Joel Embiid has a better two way rating than that among top 10 defenders. Wemby is already a top 25-30 player in the league and yes, he still has some ways to go based on his talent and work ethic. But he isn't the normal rookie/inexperienced player who needs patient handling and kid gloves and a large horizon to become an All NBA player. He is on track to get there next season. Now that means the Spurs should be able to get more talent around him to maximise his ability and output on floor.

Now do turnovers.

[scott]

You still seem to be missing the point. You keep reading it as "They're ONLY so bad because he's raw" and interpreting that to say Wemby is the sole reason why they're bad and that it's somehow his fault. The way I keep saying it is "They're only SO bad because he's raw". I've consistently explained directly after that statement exactly why I think that. If Wemby were more actualized, the team would be better. You and some other posters haven't committed to that statement one way or the other, and that is whatever because it's not something we can test. By the time Wemby is that much better, the team will hopefully also be better. But if you agree that a better version of Wemby would result in a team that plays better, then you agree with the point I'm making. If you still believe you don't, then you aren't interpreting the point I'm making as I am intending it.

You need all three of those factors to be as bad as the Spurs have been. My point is that that third condition is also true. A lot of people don't think that third condition is true. They don't appreciate how far Wemby has to go and where he is on his timeline. My point is that if Wemby were as far along as those posters believed, he would be carrying the roster, as bad as it is, to more wins. That is not blaming Victor. It's not his fault that some posters refuse to look at him objectively. Dude is having a successful year adjusting to the NBA and exploring his talents with as little pressure as possible considering his hype. You were very adamant that you considered this year a failure because the team didn't see the increase in wins you felt they should have had with him. And rather than stepping back and saying "Maybe I should reevaluate and give him the same grace other rookies get rather than expecting him to be the super-GOAT and have a legendary career from jump", you instead blame the team for the in disconnect, and then you extend your blame of the team to be what Wemby might be thinking and using that to feed into concerns that he's going to want to leave. That creates this feedback loop that seemingly justifies why the Spurs should feel a bunch of urgency to make huge moves to improve around Wemby before it's too late.

I just have to throw my hands up at it all. I'm not acting superior and saying I'm reasonable in the face of your irrationality or anything like that. But I basically didn't pay any attention to the Wemby hype until right before the draft. I watched a couple of highlights here or there, but in reality I was more concerned with the other prospects given the lotto odds. I posted way more about Scoot, Miller and the Thompsons than Wemby. So for me, the Spurs winning the lotto was just cool. It was nice that they would get the guy they want (whoever that would be). Don't get me wrong -- I flew to Vegas and watched him play his first game in a Spurs uniform. So I cared, but it wasn't the culmination of years of wanting him like it was for a lot of people. That might make me blind to the true extent of the gift the Spurs received. I may be less objective in this regard than you then. But from my vantage point, I have very few expectations for him beyond him being a good player who improves and will hopefully be the key to another era of winning.

So for me, it doesn't mean anything to go "oh, Victor's not ready yet." That doesn't cost me anything. I wouldn't expect anyone else to be ready in his situation, even other blue-chippers. Like with anyone else, I think there's plenty of time to figure this out. I am fully prepared for years of building and for a lot more losses. I've watched nearly every game despite that because I'm interested in seeing them grow. I don't have any expectations complicating that enjoyment. I was frustrated when Pop was doing suboptimal things, but then he fixed them and I was fine again. I want the team to be aggressive in adding talent, but more than anything I want them to do whatever plan they have in mind to make this work with confidence. Because I don't see any special pressure to win with Victor now, I think they have the whole playbook available for how they could proceed.

To wrap that tangent up and tied it back in, I think it's might help to understand where I'm coming from when I say "They're only so bad because he's raw." It's not about blame because I don't think anything blame-worthy is actually happening. I don't see this season as something someone has to be held accountable for. I of course want them to progress, but I also think progression zoomed down to the daily level is going to look a lot like stagnation and am prepared for that. Maybe I'm too prepared for that. Maybe I'm catching a bit of a whiff from old habits. But I think it's too early to tell. Regardless, I think I'm done explaining this. I can't make you accept the validity of my argument, and I certainly can't make you agree with it. If you think I'm off the reservation or have a hate boner for Victor, I can't stop you. Obviously we're going to continue talking about the games and the moves the team can make going forward. But maybe after seeing where I'm coming from, we can avoid some of the further flash points over the semantics of some of the posts.

The "ONLY so" versus "only SO" distinction does help me understand your point better, though it's still a strange argument because you can literally make it about any player or thing:


The Spurs are only SO bad because Julian Champagnie isn't a starting caliber SF.
The Spurs are only SO bad because Zach Collins is atrocious and there is such a massive drop off when he comes on the court.
The Spurs are only SO bad because they can't make 3P.


And so on...

One other point of clarification, I consider this season a failure because I am measuring it against what Wemby and Pop communicated would constitute success. In Wemby's own words:


Having a better record for my team than last year," Wembanyama said on ESPN when asked what would constitute success in his rookie year.

Pop's pre-season statements about winning have been shared ad nauseum here, so no need to repeat those as well.

These are the markers the team set, not me. In my opinion, Wemby has done his part to contribute to achieving success, but the Head Coach and the FO have not. I do not think they can simply say "haha, jk... it's really just about development. Be patient!" That's a convenient excuse for not living to the expectations one sets for themselves. But, as I've stated in other threads, there is no one to hold Pop and the FO accountable. They have the best jobs in the NBA... a team with the best prospect maybe EVER with no expectations, no accountability, but the biggest paychecks in the league. Where do I sign up for the working world equivalent of this job?

[jesterbobman]

I don't think a Vic / Trae / Devin combo is good enough for a title team, and isn't close in the immediate future. For instance, Wemby should be better than Evan Mobley next year (I think he is now), but Mitchell > Trae, Allen > Collins, Darius Garland > Vassell (well, this is close)...Supporting cast is young and some time away. I think Pop was pretty clear on building slow, and I think that's the right approach. If you compared to the Nuggets, even very generously calling Wemby = Jokic, I'd take Murray / KCP / Porter / Gordon over a Trae / Vassell / Keldon / Sochan group, and I think that's pretty clear.

I'd look to build slow, use cap space (Overpay Mike Conley for 2 years?, especially if no Topic in draft, another position if so) and some low tier assets (Branham or Wesley, the collected second round picks, the Charlotte pick, some finicking around with draft order to move down a few spots) to improve the supporting cast to get some more winning culture, but still mostly keeping powder dry, with an intention of continuing the slow build, adding more and more high quality (cost controlled) young players, with old dudes who are still pretty good providing a more competent base and day to day professional mentoring whilst that group develops.

[objective]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Now do turnovers.

Go read up on EPM.

[onechance87]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

sob....i hope we get the raptors pick this year...This may be our only chance to get it....I expect them to
be bad next few years,And with that i expect them to truly tank to try get flagg or boozer next couple of years.

[rankingtear]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

I guess, but DEN, BOS, OKC and ORL are built with other teams future pick. They are doing fine. Everybody gets worse the more they play with Trae those ATL picks would be high lottery.

[JPB]

Wemby is an all star next year, with hopefully a real system around him rather than just "OK, kid, just show us what you can do so we know how to use you".

[JPB]

Not sure 10th in the East at 24-31, (2.5 games above 11th placed BKN, which is not exactly "comfortable") is what The Hawks were expecting when they traded for Murray... They're playing BKN twice on B2B after the ASG, could be interesting.

[RC_Drunkford]

My bad. Hadn’t checked in a week or so.

another sign that you have no clue what you are talking about for the most part

[CGD]

sob....i hope we get the raptors pick this year...This may be our only chance to get it....I expect them to
be bad next few years,And with that i expect them to truly tank to try get flagg or boozer next couple of years.

If they’re serious about Trae, it maybe actually be better for it not to convey this year so they can use it in the trade.

[mo7888]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

[exstatic]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

I think it’s in between, like when the new league year starts in July. His extension kicks in, and then the weirdness of trading him last year goes away.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

Collins signed his extension on Oct 22nd, so the 6 month trade ineligibility ends on April 22nd, or around the time the NBA season ends. Spurs can trade him after that.

[rankingtear]

Wemby doesn't strike me as being as impatient as Luka, but still... If Dallas had been as patient with Dennis Smith Jr. as people around here want to be with some of the young Spurs who haven't shown much promise yet, and tried to slowly build around Luka through the draft, he'd have been out of Dallas by now.

DAL traded their pick the following year to get Luka. This is not an option for them.

[spurraider21]

Now do turnovers.
Would factor into his OPM and heck even the DPM to an extent since turnovers usually lead to scoring opportunities

[CGD]

Somebody clear up a cap question for me: Can Zach be traded at the end of this season or do we have to wait until October (1 year after he signed his extension)?

It kind of seems like he would HAVE to use his deal in any Trae trade, right?
Otherwise not sure how they get close to the 40M, even if they include Keldon (or less likely, Devin). Maybe guarantee Graham?

Seems like the framework would be Keldon/Zach/Picks for Trae, with the teams haggling over the picks.

[couchman]

I still think Trae would be great with Wemby, and that with the right pieces around them we could contend, but I'm convinced the Front Office won't do this, even if he's offered to us at a reasonable price.

[Leetonidas]

I still think Trae would be great with Wemby, and that with the right pieces around them we could contend, but I'm convinced the Front Office won't do this, even if he's offered to us at a reasonable price.

I think it depends on Vic. If he says "I want to play with Trae, you need to figure out how to get him here" they'll do it. Victor is obviously a level headed kid but let's be real, he's made his desire to win rings and be an all-timer very obvious from day one. He's not going to just stand by and let his FO sit on their hands. I guarantee he will push for them to do what needs to be done to field a competitive team in the near future

[exstatic]

I still think Trae would be great with Wemby, and that with the right pieces around them we could contend, but I'm convinced the Front Office won't do this, even if he's offered to us at a reasonable price.

How do you get better pieces than we have now, if you throw everything in the deal like almost everyone here wants to?

I actually suspect you’re right, though. Everything that is Spurs says you don’t skip steps, you don’t take shortcuts. Looking at OKC, and to a lesser extent Orlando, I’m comfortable using the picks, as i suspect PATFO is.

[exstatic]

I think it depends on Vic. If he says "I want to play with Trae, you need to figure out how to get him here" they'll do it. Victor is obviously a level headed kid but let's be real, he's made his desire to win rings and be an all-timer very obvious from day one. He's not going to just stand by and let his FO sit on their hands. I guarantee he will push for them to do what needs to be done to field a competitive team in the near future

The question is and has always been, is Trae a ceiling raiser or a floor raiser? Those who want him believe the former, those against, the latter. I haven’t seem him raise ceilings for his teams.

[Dejounte]

How do you get better pieces than we have now, if you throw everything in the deal like almost everyone here wants to?

I actually suspect you’re right, though. Everything that is Spurs says you don’t skip steps, you don’t take shortcuts. Looking at OKC, and to a lesser extent Orlando, I’m comfortable using the picks, as i suspect PATFO is.

The same way the Spurs were able to obtain serviceable players to put around the big three.

[exstatic]

The same way the Spurs were able to obtain serviceable players to put around the big three.

The big three wasn’t one transformative player. They were three HOF players who just needed complementary players around them. Complementary players are exactly what we have now. We need to draft a star or two.

[Leetonidas]

The question is and has always been, is Trae a ceiling raiser or a floor raiser? Those who want him believe the former, those against, the latter. I haven’t seem him raise ceilings for his teams.

I don't see why he can't be both. Wemby is going to be a superstar MVP level player as soon as next year. Wemby is the ceiling raiser. Trae is the optimal offensive running mate for him, imo. Trae wouldn't be coming here to be our best player, he would be coming to be Wemby's Robin.

And I disagree on that. Young has never really had a legit #2 next to him and his idiotic FO thought trading for another PG that needs the ball to be effective was the right move when it clearly wasnt. He's had some really nice playoff performances already and he consistently has the Hawks as a top 10 offense his entire tenure basically while having nothing but role players around him. Give him a true #1 like Wemby to play with and it unlocks his game even more

[Spurminator]

DAL traded their pick the following year to get Luka. This is not an option for them.

What you mean it wasn't an option? The Mavs traded one (Lotto-protected) pick in that deal. They've had (and traded) several draft picks since then.

[rankingtear]

What you mean it wasn't an option? The Mavs traded one (Lotto-protected) pick in that deal. They've had (and traded) several draft picks since then.

Top 5 protected.

[Ariel]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.
That's not an "objective" view, you're assuming worst case scenario everywhere and trying to pass it off as a reasonable outcome. Let me give you an example: you say "The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds". Right now, Toronto is at 6th, with 4 more wins than Portland with 26/27 games left. The chances Portland surpasses them is minuscule, And even if they stay at 6th, the pick is more likely to convey than not (54% vs 46%). But let's say it doesn't. Does Toronto go for an all out tank? That'd be very surprising, it's against everything Masai has ever preached and done. But a similar path to that which they're now is possible, so let's say they end up with the 5th worst record the following 2 seasons. The likelihood the conveys in such a pessimistic scenario (if they end up with the 6th-5th-5th worst record) is still 81.2%. So is a (pessimistic) 18.9% chance it doesn't convey what you mean by "easily"? I'd strongly disagree. Furthermore, if you go by OKC's famed war chest of picks, you'll see that, though more in quantity, they're far less promising than these picks.

I often see this kind of behavior when people are trying to rationalize a decision they've already made. You want to justify the Spurs trading for Trae Young, so you paint any other scenario in the worst light possible, while at the same time ignoring every possible risk associated. If you go by every recent blockbuster made, you'll see that the most common outcome actually favors the seller, precisely because buyers convince themselves of the hefty price to pay by reasoning the exact same way you do here. I'm fine with the Spurs making a move to improve the team (I've proposed several) but they have to be aware that you have a limited number of shots at it, and you have to make sure the target, price and time is right. I'm not sold it is, with some of the proposals I've seen here for Young.

[mo7888]

Thanks you the info there guys. Paul Garcia had me a little confused on that..

[scott]

I'd like to add some further thoughts about the possible overrating of the ATL picks because of the play-in

And that is that it's not just the ATL picks being overrated

The ENTIRE "warchest" is being overrated and not enough of the downside is being priced in leading to some Spurs fans being over exuberant in the future of those picks and being too dismissive of just a Young trade

Because it could all go up in a puff of smoke easier than you can say cement shoes draft bust getting cut.

The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds. If the season ended today they'd be 6 in the lottery. Yes they could finish outside the top 6 or slide on lottery night. In games with OG on the court, they were 11-16, 40% wins. Without? 8-28.. 28% winning percentage. Over a season that's good for a bottom 5 record. And next year the Spurs SHOULD be better, giving them one less than below them.

If that pick doesn't convert this year, don't expect it next year because they are not good and this draft probably wouldn't be such a huge impact on them next year. Wemby can't fix this roster by himself, I don't think anyone is doing it for the Raptors.

The Chicago pick next year? They are on the borderline this season at 12 right now with aging DeRozan and Vucevic. That pick could easily disappear into seconds

The Charlotte pick we all know is a longshot. If they don't make the playoffs next year? Boom, seconds.

So the "Wemby Rookie Deal Zone" before his extension would kick in, prior to a possible Boston swap or Dallas swap could be awesome.

Yes, Trae Young could get hurt, Murray pout his way out of town, giant disaster, high lottery odds and we'll well well now the Spurs get lucky and pick Cooper Flagg with the ATL pick. And they get Toronto's pick this year to add a Shepperd or a Knecht or a Kyshawn or a Salaun on top of their own pick.

That could happen, yes. Absolutely.

But

It's also possible that this incredible war chest devolves into:

A bunch of future seconds
2025 ATL pick 15
2026 Spurs swap up to pick 10 for instance
2027 ATL pick 15

And you have to hope Wright can even identify talent that isn't obvious rather than the next midround Primo or Samanic. Considering the number of legit players taken after Primo, I'm not 100% sure on that.

Wouldn't Trae Young be preferable to a reasonable outcome of some middle of the first round picks and moving up a few spots in a swap?

So the point I'm getting at is I'm more inclined to see a trade happen for players who have proven themselves. For me that's Trae Young. But let's say Atlanta doesn't want to play ball. I still would hope for some trade. Get someone to help Wemby now and use these suspect picks to do it. Especially those protected picks.

Great post. Fans and teams always overrate the unknown. You see this a lot in the NFL where bonafide, legit NFL starts get traded for 4th round picks and shit like that.

[Kevin]

People are dreaming of Luka or Giannis both of which are pipe dreams.

Wemby will be a MVP level player next season. The time is now and Young and Wemby are a perfect match offensively.

[scott]

How do you get better pieces than we have now, if you throw everything in the deal like almost everyone here wants to?

I actually suspect you’re right, though. Everything that is Spurs says you don’t skip steps, you don’t take shortcuts. Looking at OKC, and to a lesser extent Orlando, I’m comfortable using the picks, as i suspect PATFO is.

No one has suggested "throwing everything in the deal", and you know it. The Spurs warchest gives them the flexibility to offer up significant draft capital in an acquisition, and still have plenty remaining (including all of their own picks). We get it, you don't like Trae, and that's okay... but there is no need for blatant misrepresentations of what people are suggesting.

[scott]

That's not an "objective" view, you're assuming worst case scenario everywhere and trying to pass it off as a reasonable outcome. Let me give you an example: you say "The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds". Right now, Toronto is at 6th, with 4 more wins than Portland with 26/27 games left. The chances Portland surpasses them is minuscule, And even if they stay at 6th, the pick is more likely to convey than not (54% vs 46%). But let's say it doesn't. Does Toronto go for an all out tank? That'd be very surprising, it's against everything Masai has ever preached and done. But a similar path to that which they're now is possible, so let's say they end up with the 5th worst record the following 2 seasons. The likelihood the conveys in such a pessimistic scenario (if they end up with the 6th-5th-5th worst record) is still 81.2%. So is a (pessimistic) 18.9% chance it doesn't convey what you mean by "easily"? I'd strongly disagree. Furthermore, if you go by OKC's famed war chest of picks, you'll see that, though more in quantity, they're far less promising than these picks.

I often see this kind of behavior when people are trying to rationalize a decision they've already made. You want to justify the Spurs trading for Trae Young, so you paint any other scenario in the worst light possible, while at the same time ignoring every possible risk associated. If you go by every recent blockbuster made, you'll see that the most common outcome actually favors the seller, precisely because buyers convince themselves of the hefty price to pay by reasoning the exact same way you do here. I'm fine with the Spurs making a move to improve the team (I've proposed several) but they have to be aware that you have a limited number of shots at it, and you have to make sure the target, price and time is right. I'm not sold it is, with some of the proposals I've seen here for Young.

The best and worse case scenarios for these picks set the range of outcomes, and it's important to know that. I didn't view objective's post as pessimistic at all, it's just outlining the worst case scenario range out of outcomes to highlight that you can't simply assume that the Spurs have this influx of high picks coming - the only high pick that is assured is ours this year. It is entirely possible we never see another top 10 pick in Wemby's career, and it is worth recognizing that just as it's worth recognizing that a lot of those high picks also don't pan out, so you can't take "building through the draft" for granted. It makes the solid foundation for a case why perceived valuable draft capital may be better used to acquire proven quantities rather than rolling the dice on 19-year-old kids.

[RC_Drunkford]

The big three wasn’t one transformative player. They were three HOF players who just needed complementary players around them. Complementary players are exactly what we have now. We need to draft a star or two.

or trade for one


I don't see why he can't be both. Wemby is going to be a superstar MVP level player as soon as next year. Wemby is the ceiling raiser. Trae is the optimal offensive running mate for him, imo. Trae wouldn't be coming here to be our best player, he would be coming to be Wemby's Robin.

And I disagree on that. Young has never really had a legit #2 next to him and his idiotic FO thought trading for another PG that needs the ball to be effective was the right move when it clearly wasnt. He's had some really nice playoff performances already and he consistently has the Hawks as a top 10 offense his entire tenure basically while having nothing but role players around him. Give him a true #1 like Wemby to play with and it unlocks his game even more

The best players Young played with were John Collins and DJ. And Young was never a 2nd option, which he would be here.

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

And a disclaimer: I'm not even completely sold on Trae. Part of me would even prefer to bring DJM at a much lower cost to be a key starter but not our co-star. But, I can definitely clearly see the appeal of a Trae acquisition.

i am in this boat also. I wouldn’t be mad if the front office traded to bring Murray back because he is still young, is a good player, signed for a while on a decent contract, knows the coaching staff and system, and would cost less to acquire.

[objective]

That's not an "objective" view, you're assuming worst case scenario everywhere and trying to pass it off as a reasonable outcome. Let me give you an example: you say "The Toronto pick? Could easily convert to seconds". Right now, Toronto is at 6th, with 4 more wins than Portland with 26/27 games left. The chances Portland surpasses them is minuscule, And even if they stay at 6th, the pick is more likely to convey than not (54% vs 46%). But let's say it doesn't. Does Toronto go for an all out tank? That'd be very surprising, it's against everything Masai has ever preached and done. But a similar path to that which they're now is possible, so let's say they end up with the 5th worst record the following 2 seasons. The likelihood the conveys in such a pessimistic scenario (if they end up with the 6th-5th-5th worst record) is still 81.2%. So is a (pessimistic) 18.9% chance it doesn't convey what you mean by "easily"? I'd strongly disagree. Furthermore, if you go by OKC's famed war chest of picks, you'll see that, though more in quantity, they're far less promising than these picks.

I often see this kind of behavior when people are trying to rationalize a decision they've already made. You want to justify the Spurs trading for Trae Young, so you paint any other scenario in the worst light possible, while at the same time ignoring every possible risk associated. If you go by every recent blockbuster made, you'll see that the most common outcome actually favors the seller, precisely because buyers convince themselves of the hefty price to pay by reasoning the exact same way you do here. I'm fine with the Spurs making a move to improve the team (I've proposed several) but they have to be aware that you have a limited number of shots at it, and you have to make sure the target, price and time is right. I'm not sold it is, with some of the proposals I've seen here for Young.

I'm pricing in downsides, and they are realistic outcomes.

You bring up OKC warchest.

They are not the same, just compare protections and guarantees. There's a big difference in whether a pick conveys when with the Spurs it's top 6 protected with a team that's whack and currently 6, top 10 2025 with a team currently 12 depending on a 34 year old DeRozan, and top 14 for a team currently in the bottom 5 ....

And compare 5o the OKC picks

-2024 top 4 Houston (currently 10)
-2024 top 10 Utah currently 11 - this pick is very similar to the Spurs situation
-I'm not bothering with the 24 Clipper pick since either it or OKC own go to Toronto
- some weirdo swap with Houston and LAC & Brooklyn that will probably jump OKC into the teens as it's protected top 4 and Houston is getting better
- 2025 top 14 Miami. This becomes UNPROTECTED in 26 and therefore is guaranteed. Furthermore Miami is a credible threat to make the playoffs unlike Charlotte in 2025
- 25 76ers top 6, 2026 top 4, 2027 top 4, then seconds. Lighter protection than any Spurs pick and much more likely to convey considering the team
- 2026 OKC gets the 2 best 1sts between OKC, Houston, and LAC, Houston is too 4 protected and LAC not protected. Light protection on Houston that becomes a 2nd. Maybe Houston with VanVleet and Brooks has some age related decline by then but top 4 is light enough to convey more likely than the Spurs conditionals
Then after 2026 they have a couple of lightly protected Denver picks that are top 5 protected for some time and some more swaps, but I'm really just interested in the time before a Wemby extension would have cap impact

OKC has protected, conditional firsts that are more likely to be firsts compared to SA's collection due to the lightness of protection and the reasonable expectations of the teams involved

[objective]

How do you get better pieces than we have now, if you throw everything in the deal like almost everyone here wants to?

I actually suspect you’re right, though. Everything that is Spurs says you don’t skip steps, you don’t take shortcuts. Looking at OKC, and to a lesser extent Orlando, I’m comfortable using the picks, as i suspect PATFO is.

While I am one of the few that has supported a perceived high price to pay for Young, it couldn't be called 'everything'

Because the Sun's and the Bucks are closer to 'everything'

A Spurs 'everything' Godfather offer would include:

24 Spurs 1st
25 swap
26 Spurs
27 swap
28 Spurs
29 swap
30 Spurs
31 swap

Plus all the seconds

That's an everything offer. Giving ATL it's picks back, even with a Chicago and/or Charlotte, still leaves everything I've listed above for SA to draft or put into other trades

[spurraider21]

I don't see why he can't be both. Wemby is going to be a superstar MVP level player as soon as next year. Wemby is the ceiling raiser. Trae is the optimal offensive running mate for him, imo. Trae wouldn't be coming here to be our best player, he would be coming to be Wemby's Robin.

And I disagree on that. Young has never really had a legit #2 next to him and his idiotic FO thought trading for another PG that needs the ball to be effective was the right move when it clearly wasnt. He's had some really nice playoff performances already and he consistently has the Hawks as a top 10 offense his entire tenure basically while having nothing but role players around him. Give him a true #1 like Wemby to play with and it unlocks his game even more
the closest thing Young has had to a #2 was pre-injury John Collins who was fine but but cmon :lol

otherwise dejounte who is not a natural fit alongside him as Trae has never developed an off-ball game like Curry did

[JeffDuncan]

Beyond the question of draft picks conveying, there’s another factor. That is, of course, the Spurs’ use of their draft picks. I have no confidence the Spurs will use any of their draft picks to get a player better than Trae Young. My pessimism is based on the history of this Spurs front office. I don’t think they’re very good at identifying the best player when several choices are available.

Is a given draft even going to offer a better player than Trae? If so, will the Spurs recognize that player and draft him instead of some other player?

Merely having a draft pick accomplishes nothing.

[exstatic]

No one has suggested "throwing everything in the deal", and you know it. The Spurs warchest gives them the flexibility to offer up significant draft capital in an acquisition, and still have plenty remaining (including all of their own picks). We get it, you don't like Trae, and that's okay... but there is no need for blatant misrepresentations of what people are suggesting.

Oh, that’s not remotely true. Not everyone has, but some posters (Kevin is one) want to throw our pick this year, all of the ATL picks and swap, the TOR pick , the CHI PICK, and the CHA PICK.

I am not gaga for him,but I’ve actually proposed some sensible trades like returning the CHA and 27 ATL picks, and adding the CHI pick, and was met with the above.

[exstatic]

While I am one of the few that has supported a perceived high price to pay for Young, it couldn't be called 'everything'

Because the Sun's and the Bucks are closer to 'everything'

A Spurs 'everything' Godfather offer would include:

24 Spurs 1st
25 swap
26 Spurs
27 swap
28 Spurs
29 swap
30 Spurs
31 swap

Plus all the seconds

That's an everything offer. Giving ATL it's picks back, even with a Chicago and/or Charlotte, still leaves everything I've listed above for SA to draft or put into other trades

Paging scott…

[CGD]

Trae Young’s value is not as high as folks here think. I’m not budging on giving back ATL’a 25 tbh.

Let’s first see who beats a Player (Keldon) + 2 decent FRPs (ATL27 & TOR) + a less good FRP (CHA or other ptx pick).

[RC_Drunkford]

Oh, that’s not remotely true. Not everyone has, but some posters (Kevin is one) want to throw our pick this year, all of the ATL picks and swap, the TOR pick , the CHI PICK, and the CHA PICK.

I am not gaga for him,but I’ve actually proposed some sensible trades like returning the CHA and 27 ATL picks, and adding the CHI pick, and was met with the above.

I think that would be a NBA record of picks tbh. That's not even realistic. It's the Hawks picks, their swap and maybe 2 firsts or 1 first and 5 2nds. That's the max. If it's 2 additional firsts they can have the CHA pick back. In no way should the Spurs trade their 24 pick either.

Spurs would either throw in the TOR pick, CHI pick or a protected Spurs pick further down the line, which would probably be my favorite option. So Hawks 25, 26 swap, 27, CHA 1st and Spurs 27 will probably work. And there's no way we can keep any ATL picks if we trade for Young. The Hawks won't go for that.

[scott]

Oh, that’s not remotely true. Not everyone has, but some posters (Kevin is one) want to throw our pick this year, all of the ATL picks and swap, the TOR pick , the CHI PICK, and the CHA PICK.

I am not gaga for him,but I’ve actually proposed some sensible trades like returning the CHA and 27 ATL picks, and adding the CHI pick, and was met with the above.

That first scenario still isn't an "everything in the deal". (See quote below).

Your second scenario isn't a realistic offer, it's a "I don't like Trae, so this is my low ball offer". CHA + CHI + ATL '27 isn't landing an all-star player.


Paging scott…

Paging me to demonstrate that yet again, no one is suggesting an "everything" offer. objective wasn't suggesting that is what he would offer, he was defining what an "everything offer" would be - which no one has proposed. Thanks for proving the point.

[Joseph Kony]

Paging scott…
:lol it's like you didn't even read the actual post and just saw the list of picks/swaps

[objective]

Oh, that’s not remotely true. Not everyone has, but some posters (Kevin is one) want to throw our pick this year, all of the ATL picks and swap, the TOR pick , the CHI PICK, and the CHA PICK.

I am not gaga for him,but I’ve actually proposed some sensible trades like returning the CHA and 27 ATL picks, and adding the CHI pick, and was met with the above.

I'm probably one of the posters you're thinking about

And I don't think the ATL sendback (25, 26 swap, 27) plus the CHA (highly unlikely to be a first) and even the CHI pick on top would be an unfair deal.

The CHI pick is top 10, top 8, and top 8 protected and then becomes a 28 second. So at best it's a #9 pick. Pretty good, if the Bulls don't tank their way out of it either intentionally or via incompetence. And they are close to being bad enough naturally with a current executive structure that doesn't know what they're doing. And if they're fired, the new regime would be incentivized to tank even more.

And I wouldn't include Keldon unless getting back something else like Hunter. Hunter is hurt all the time and overpaid but closer to an SF archetype.

So if someone thinks Young is trash or bad, then no price is worth it due to his salary. Not even 1 pick.

But if someone thinks he is legit and can pair with Wemby well, then it's fair to look at the value of the picks when low on top of high.

Even if the Spurs 'overpay' they still have some caproom and other firsts like their own and other swaps plus tons of seconds, and seconds are the current currency for getting bench role players in trades.

[RC_Drunkford]

The Spurs could also trade down in the 24 draft and exchange picks with the Hawks, who also own the 24 Kings pick. Given how even the playing field is, if you swap the Spurs top 4 pick with like the Hawks 11th pick you can still get a serviceable player like Knecht

[buttsR4rebounding]

People are dreaming of Luka or Giannis both of which are pipe dreams.

Wemby will be a MVP level player next season. The time is now and Young and Wemby are a perfect match offensively.

Actually, if Luka wants out of Dallas down the road Spurs probably have a better chance at getting him with Young available to send back.

[RC_Drunkford]

this whole thing reminds me of the offseason where we signed LaMarcus Aldridge. There were posters saying they don't want LaMarcus because Tiago Splitter was such a great defender. And how Aldridge only got the Blazers past the first round once as the first option. :lol

The Spurs ended up having a better defense with LA and were a legit contender with him as the #2 option. Probably would've won a couple of titles if it wasn't for Zaza and Uncle Dennis.

[spurraider21]

this whole thing reminds me of the offseason where we signed LaMarcus Aldridge. There were posters saying they don't want LaMarcus because Tiago Splitter was such a great defender. And how Aldridge only got the Blazers past the first round once as the first option. :lol

The Spurs ended up having a better defense with LA and were a legit contender with him as the #2 option. Probably would've won a couple of titles if it wasn't for Zaza and Uncle Dennis.
difference was opportunity cost of landing aldridge was just needing to movie splitter and then commit to LMA's contract which was a no-brainer. it wasnt also at the expense of draft capital. plus different CBA with supermax and whatnot. and that was mostly just supercharging a roster that was already great and competing, not hoping LMA would help drag us from the basement into relevance

[RC_Drunkford]

difference was opportunity cost of landing aldridge was just needing to movie splitter and then commit to LMA's contract which was a no-brainer. it wasnt also at the expense of draft capital. plus different CBA with supermax and whatnot. and that was mostly just supercharging a roster that was already great and competing, not hoping LMA would help drag us from the basement into relevance

I know. It's more about some people thinking it's better to keep Splitter than to get prime Aldridge what's funny to me. It's a consistent thing on this board where people overvalue average role players and don't want to add All-Stars.

[The Truth #6]

If the Spurs think Devin is a #3 in a title team, then Young makes sense in the abstract. But I think he would need to create some momentum to get himself to SA. It's possible. Spurs are so adverse to change, typically, I still can't see it. But there's noise of something happening. Might be BS posturing, or BS but with the goal of creating a narrative.

This sounds like a ridiculous take, but I don't know if Pop really wants to speed up the timeline, I think he's gotten used to or excited about taking the slow route. This couybe an interesting internal debate that of course we never about.

[mo7888]

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

[objective]

difference was opportunity cost of landing aldridge was just needing to movie splitter and then commit to LMA's contract which was a no-brainer. it wasnt also at the expense of draft capital. plus different CBA with supermax and whatnot. and that was mostly just supercharging a roster that was already great and competing, not hoping LMA would help drag us from the basement into relevance

There was even more nuance

To get the space they had to ask Kawhi to not sign an extension for a year.

Beforehand I was all about just locking Kawhi up and forgetting the free agency dreams

Since then lots of national media people point to that as somehow being the beginning of the end in San Antonio and that he was unhappy to have been asked or pressured etc, it probably came from some of Uncle Propaganda.

Instead of feeling justified, I don't think that was a factor. Just Kawhi being a low character guy too afraid and underhanded to just tell the Spurs he was going home no matter what.

But, there are counter opinions and it should be factored in to the overall LMA signing picture

[RC_Drunkford]

1757541536848384312

1758228243201872100

[thiste]

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

I'll be the first to say that the '25 Atlanta pick has tremendous value, but let's be honest Atlanta is never opening discussions with the Spurs if they're not getting all their picks back.

[mo7888]

I'll be the first to say that the '25 Atlanta pick has tremendous value, but let's be honest Atlanta is never opening discussions with the Spurs if they're not getting all their picks back.

I don't really care what they want at this point....

Who's going to beat that offer for Trae?

[scott]

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

Compare that to 3 LAL picks + 2 LAL Swaps + Reaves + Filler... I'm not sure that SA offer wins.

I'm also not sure LAL actually would offer that, but that would be an offer that could potentially beat the package you threw out.

I like your package, but would want Collins going out if possible. Also if I could somehow keep either TOR or CHI, I would want to do that, but that might be asking too much.

[mo7888]

Compare that to 3 LAL picks + 2 LAL Swaps + Reaves + Filler... I'm not sure that SA offer wins.

I'm also not sure LAL actually would offer that, but that would be an offer that could potentially beat the package you threw out.

I like your package, but would want Collins going out if possible. Also if I could somehow keep either TOR or CHI, I would want to do that, but that might be asking too much.

Yes, there are teams that can beat it, but I don't think there are any that will offer more. I keep hearing that we have to give them everything back plus stuff, but its not realistic unless some other team can trump our offer.

Also, I'd much prefer to send Collins out. I'm just putting out a strong offer that I don't think anyone will beat hoping to get people to 'think' and realize that we don't have to give them everything they want. We just have to give them a better offer than the competition. This offer is probably better than anything else they can get by a good bit.

[thiste]

You don't just dump all the players you don't want anymore, it's gotta be players they're interested in. Reaves is a way more interesting player than anyone we're willing to offer, Keldon included.

[spurraider21]

planting DJM as a trojan horse with the Hawks to break the organization into trading away Trae to the Spurs while simultaneously allowing the spurs to land wemby would be an all timer

[SpursBills]

If the Spurs think Devin is a #3 in a title team, then Young makes sense in the abstract. But I think he would need to create some momentum to get himself to SA. It's possible. Spurs are so adverse to change, typically, I still can't see it. But there's noise of something happening. Might be BS posturing, or BS but with the goal of creating a narrative.

This sounds like a ridiculous take, but I don't know if Pop really wants to speed up the timeline, I think he's gotten used to or excited about taking the slow route. This couybe an interesting internal debate that of course we never about.

I think there's very good reason to think that Devin is a legitimate #3 on a title contender. His play style, dimensions, and numbers make him one of the more predictable guys to project moving forward I think - decent sized shooting guard with limited creation upside and a good bucket-getter. His value hinges on 1) quality of his defense 2) 3 point shooting and 3) size of his contract. The high end of this archetype is Kobe Bryant and Devin Booker, lower end you're looking at Jalen Green and maybe Cam Thomas. Realistic comps when looking at age 23 performance include Demar, Zach Lavine, and Khris Middleton, so basically an occasional or borderline all-star level player, and Vassell's defense is already better than the first two of those three. That is an awesome guy as a #3 option.

Regarding a Trae Young trade, even if the Spurs can beat any package, there is definitely going to be an optics portion where the Hawks take a lesser package so as to not look terrible for trading him back to the same team that sold them Dejounte. For me, I'm split between whether or not to trade for him. As long as Trae Young leaves the hawks, the spurs win I think - they'll either have Trae or those Hawks picks are going to be more like 5/6/7 rather than 9/10/11. Least desirable outcome is if Trae leaves but gets traded to minnesota for KAT.

[thiste]

BTW Trae is higher in defensive rating than Tre:

https://i.imgur.com/hXLHJZW.png

[scott]

High DRtg = bad.

But I think we all knew that Trae was a worse defender than Tre.

[thiste]

High DRtg = bad.

But I think we all knew that Trae was a worse defender than Tre.

:lmao you got me I always forget

[Dejounte]

If the Spurs win the lotto with the #1 pick, they should entice Atlanta with that. Should be an easy sell to Hawks fans. This draft is a sham.

[scott]

Whether Trae Young or someone else, I think Devin has as much to gain as anyone by a legit PG who is both a scoring threat and an elite table setter. Devin's offensive talent is apparent... where he runs into trouble is when he has to do too much because there is no one else on the team to help pick up the slack.

[scott]

:lmao you got me I always forget

It's not a huge difference between the two though!

[Dejounte]

Wemby expressed his disappointment in not making the all star game. He will definitely feel the pressure to win next season and all the talk about how winning next year with a competitive team being unimportant is a joke.

[Frenchfred]

Compare that to 3 LAL picks + 2 LAL Swaps + Reaves + Filler... I'm not sure that SA offer wins.

I'm also not sure LAL actually would offer that, but that would be an offer that could potentially beat the package you threw out.

I like your package, but would want Collins going out if possible. Also if I could somehow keep either TOR or CHI, I would want to do that, but that might be asking too much.

I heard that Collins cannot be traded before October 2024 because he signed a veteran extension.

As far as the Lakers, they'll have to manage the epron situation. Right now, their projected payroll is 178.7 millions next season which will put them above the first epron. I don't know how that works but in theory, Teams cannot acquire a player in a sign and trade if that player keeps them abode the epron. The epron is 172 millions and Trae will make 43 millions next year (considering he is refusing his 15% trade kicker) so that's 49 millions to find. Let's say that they trade Russel and Reaves, that's 33 millions. They need to find another 16 millions to shed, so maybe they can send Hachimura as well.

At the point, the Lakers will have a 40 year old Lebron, Davis who tends to injure himself quite a lot and Trae who doesn't play defense and pretty much nobody else and no pick to improve. I doubt that the Lakers go for it

[Joseph Kony]

1758228243201872100

Is this guy credible? not sure being an AirAlamo contributor counts :lol

[scott]

I heard that Collins cannot be traded before October 2024 because he signed a veteran extension.

As far as the Lakers, they'll have to manage the epron situation. Right now, their projected payroll is 178.7 millions next season which will put them above the first epron. I don't know how that works but in theory, Teams cannot acquire a player in a sign and trade if that player keeps them abode the epron. The epron is 172 millions and Trae will make 43 millions next year (considering he is refusing his 15% trade kicker) so that's 49 millions to find. Let's say that they trade Russel and Reaves, that's 33 millions. They need to find another 16 millions to shed, so maybe they can send Hachimura as well.

At the point, the Lakers will have a 40 year old Lebron, Davis who tends to injure himself quite a lot and Trae who doesn't play defense and pretty much nobody else and no pick to improve. I doubt that the Lakers go for it

I'm pretty sure the Oct 2024 date is incorrect and that he is tradeable after April 22, but it would be nice to have confirmation.

[Frenchfred]

I'm pretty sure the Oct 2024 date is incorrect and that he is tradeable after April 22, but it would be nice to have confirmation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYq891mB3Jk

At 12'50

[objective]

The newest episode of Locked on Hawks is mostly about the Trae Young rumors.

LoH host is very good and very level headed.

Summary: he doesn't think the Hawks will trade Young, and on top of that doesn't think they should

[scott]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYq891mB3Jk

At 12'50

I trust this more: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/san-antonio-spurs/zach-collins-23605/

And here, Paul Garcia basically admits he is just repeating what he read somewhere and doesn't really know:

1758390984495296994

And more evidence that it's only a 6 month trade restriction:

1716136652601807266

This is all easily verifiable for whoever wants to go read the CBA

[scott]

Not sure if this is the case with the updated CBA, but it appears the 1-year restriction was for Designated Veteran (SuperMax) extensions, which obviously Zach Collins did not receive.

This page lists all the trade restrictions currently in place by team by player: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade-restrictions/

[tonight...you]

Is this guy credible? not sure being an AirAlamo contributor counts :lol
Yeah, they're kinda just rumor mongers.

[spurraider21]

spotrac is usually pretty accurate with that stuff. they're quite credible

[Frenchfred]

Not sure if this is the case with the updated CBA, but it appears the 1-year restriction was for Designated Veteran (SuperMax) extensions, which obviously Zach Collins did not receive.

This page lists all the trade restrictions currently in place by team by player: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade-restrictions/

Ok good. Then if we can package Collins to Atlanta, at least we are getting rid of a bad contract and could try to trade for another player. It is all going to come down to how many FRP Atlanta wants. I would really like to keep their 2025 to have a chance at Cooper Flag.

[objective]

Damn that Rondo clip was on

And he's right. Every night he's the focus of the defense and still puts up the 28 & 10 or whatever his numbers are

Imagine now with Wemby spacing and the attention he gets ... With Vassell there.... That's a good start

[spurraider21]

Ok good. Then if we can package Collins to Atlanta, at least we are getting rid of a bad contract and could try to trade for another player. It is all going to come down to how many FRP Atlanta wants. I would really like to keep their 2025 to have a chance at Cooper Flag.
It’s the price you’re going to have to pay for Trae

atlanta isn’t going to trade their best player just to help another team land flagg

[Dejounte]

Yeah, they're kinda just rumor mongers.

Ty actually has connections since he was a Spurs reporter before. Dude is deplorable though. His takes are horrendous.

[mo7888]

It’s the price you’re going to have to pay for Trae

atlanta isn’t going to trade their best player just to help another team land flagg

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Again, who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

Lots of people say we have to include 25, but nobody says who gonna offer a better package as competition.

[vy65]

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Again, who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

Lots of people say we have to include 25, but nobody says who gonna offer a better package as competition.

Lakers with Reaves/Russell, 3 picks, 2 swaps.

Possibly Philly with a combination of picks, Harris, and floatsam.

[mo7888]

Lakers with Reaves/Russell, 3 picks, 2 swaps.

Possibly Philly with a combination of picks, Harris, and floatsam.

It's unlikely LA offers that and the value is close anyway. Philly would have to get Harris to agree since he's a FA and their picks aren't projected as high as our package.

I will concede tne LA package is stiff competition though if they are willing to go all-in on Trae.

[exstatic]

Lakers with Reaves/Russell, 3 picks, 2 swaps.

Possibly Philly with a combination of picks, Harris, and floatsam.

Russel is a net negative. No one wanted to give LA anything at the deadline so they could do other trades. Also, 5 FRPs is better than 3 and two swaps.

Philly’s package wouldn’t be any better, mainly because Harris is a UFA, and probably wouldn’t be too jazzed to go to a Trae-less ATL squad.

[vy65]

It's unlikely LA offers that and the value is close anyway. Philly would have to get Harris to agree since he's a FA and their picks aren't projected as high as our package.

I will concede tne LA package is stiff competition though if they are willing to go all-in on Trae.

What could make sense is a team like NOLA. They were rumored to be after DJM, so Trae fits that profil. They could do a package some young talent (Hawkins, Jones, Daniels), along with their own picks or some of the MIL picks they own. Not a haul by any means, by competitive with the spurs - especially since ATL would want players if they’re not getting their picks back.

[mo7888]

What could make sense is a team like NOLA. They were rumored to be after DJM, so Trae fits that profil. They could do a package some young talent (Hawkins, Jones, Daniels), along with their own picks or some of the MIL picks they own. Not a haul by any means, by competitive with the spurs - especially since ATL would want players if they’re not getting their picks back.

Nola can't match the pick portion i dont believe, then its a matter of are their young players + salary filler (if they have any... i haven't looked) are greater value than Keldon + Branham + Graham's salary savings.

[vy65]

Nola can't match the pick portion i dont believe, then its a matter of are their young players + salary filler (if they have any... i haven't looked) are greater value than Keldon + Branham + Graham's salary savings.

Their young players would easily be better than a package involving Branham. It’d come down to whether ATL wanted to tear it down to the studs or do a Toronto type rebuild.

[mo7888]

Their young players would easily be better than a package involving Branham. It’d come down to whether ATL wanted to tear it down to the studs or do a Toronto type rebuild.

I agree they are better than Branham, but are they so much better that it makes up for their poorer picks + cap savings + Keldon (who has value)

[Mr. Body]

Fed Van Vleet + Jalen Green + a couple Brooklyn picks and filler. Who says no. :lol

[spurraider21]

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Again, who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

Lots of people say we have to include 25, but nobody says who gonna offer a better package as competition.
its possible that nobody can beat it, but short of Trae outright demanding a trade, the hawks can just pass if they dont receive an offer they deem to be fair. even if its the best of a series of other unfair offers. heck it wouldnt shock me if as a necessary condition of the trade they demand not just their own 2025 pick but the better of the spurs/hawks 2025 pick (even if thats almost certainly going to be the hawks pick in this scenario). if the best player they're getting back is keldon, they will be quite greedy with the picks. if nobody meets their demand they can just move on and say no trade materialized

of course, equations change if trae demands to be traded

[mo7888]

its possible that nobody can beat it, but short of Trae outright demanding a trade, the hawks can just pass if they dont receive an offer they deem to be fair. even if its the best of a series of other unfair offers. heck it wouldnt shock me if as a necessary condition of the trade they demand not just their own 2025 pick but the better of the spurs/hawks 2025 pick (even if thats almost certainly going to be the hawks pick in this scenario). if the best player they're getting back is keldon, they will be quite greedy with the picks. if nobody meets their demand they can just move on and say no trade materialized

of course, equations change if trae demands to be traded

Then let them keep him. We shouldn't bid against ourselves. I will say though, i think it's baked in that they're moving him. They've made that pretty clear through press leaks and Trae's camp here's that. They'll work together to move him or it'll get tixic.

[Dejounte]

The big three wasn’t one transformative player. They were three HOF players who just needed complementary players around them. Complementary players are exactly what we have now. We need to draft a star or two.
And Wemby and Trae are likely HOFers by the end of their careers

[scott]

My new, overreaction to a Rising Stars game, ideal offseason:

Trade for Trae, but manage to keep the TOR pick

Draft Buzelis with our pick
Draft Filipowski with the TOR pick

[mo7888]

My new, overreaction to a Rising Stars game, ideal offseason:

Trade for Trae, but manage to keep the TOR pick

Draft Buzelis with our pick
Draft Filipowski with the TOR pick

Not a bad outcome. I've been high on Matas Buzelis for a while now

[RC_Drunkford]

Toronto pick
Cha pick
Chicago pick
The lesser of the 25 pick (SA/Atl)
Their 27 pick

Keldon
Graham
Branham

Again, who out there beats that package? Not who can, but who's willing too?

Lots of people say we have to include 25, but nobody says who gonna offer a better package as competition.

The Hawks would say no. Would be a dumb move on their part to trade Young and let the Spurs keep their 25 pick. Not even they are that stupid. They don't have to trade Trae, but I assume they might if the package is right. Obviously the Spurs won't want to give them Sochan or Vassell, so that means we have to throw in more picks. Like I said, I assume it's all the ATL picks and swaps plus at least 2 firsts.

[JPB]

The Hawks would say no. Would be a dumb move on their part to trade Young and let the Spurs keep their 25 pick. Not even they are that stupid. They don't have to trade Trae, but I assume they might if the package is right. Obviously the Spurs won't want to give them Sochan or Vassell, so that means we have to throw in more picks. Like I said, I assume it's all the ATL picks and swaps plus at least 2 firsts.

I really wouldn't assume Sochan if out the books in any trade spurs would be willing to do for a star.

[rankingtear]

I really wouldn't assume Sochan if out the books in any trade spurs would be willing to do for a star.

They would only trade him for an upgrade on his position. Impossible to fill the 4 spot right now with a non big man.

[JPB]

its possible that nobody can beat it, but short of Trae outright demanding a trade, the hawks can just pass if they dont receive an offer they deem to be fair. even if its the best of a series of other unfair offers. heck it wouldnt shock me if as a necessary condition of the trade they demand not just their own 2025 pick but the better of the spurs/hawks 2025 pick (even if thats almost certainly going to be the hawks pick in this scenario). if the best player they're getting back is keldon, they will be quite greedy with the picks. if nobody meets their demand they can just move on and say no trade materialized

of course, equations change if trae demands to be traded

Not just to be traded, but traded to a particular destination (he would obviously commit to resign with), which would change ABSOLUTELY everything. POR tried to find a deal with the Heat where Lillard wanted to go, but Miami just didn't have the pieces. Spurs have, no matter what, the pieces to make ATL happy if Trae says that's where he wants to go.

I also disagree on the notion ATL doesn't HAVE TO trade Young. Hawks situatiion have been only degrading these past 2 seasons and I don't really believe it could really get any better. If Hawks think, and I think they do, they're not going anywhere with Young as their franchise guy, and that's he's dead money here, then the more they wait, the more Trae loses value. You can still sell high this summer, not so sure if they go for another disappoiting season, specially if they rejected a trade request...

[RC_Drunkford]

It's the Spurs. They not moving Sochan or Vassell. They might move Keldon, but would probably even love their best to keep him around.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

It's the Spurs. They not moving Sochan or Vassell. They might move Keldon, but would probably even love their best to keep him around.

This version of the Spurs wouldn’t hold on too tight to any of those three for the right deal. Heck we traded DJM and White. White was clearly the team’s smartest defender and distributor and Murray was an all-star.

Flipside is both of those moves were to plan for the long-term future, not to acquire a star.

[SupremeGuy]

I don't see the Hawks trading Young for crap tbh. UNLESS he starts demanding a trade.

[SpursBills]

This version of the Spurs wouldn’t hold on too tight to any of those three for the right deal. Heck we traded DJM and White. White was clearly the team’s smartest defender and distributor and Murray was an all-star.

Flipside is both of those moves were to plan for the long-term future, not to acquire a star.

I think they are going to try pretty hard to hold onto Vassell and Sochan. Keldon I'm not as sure about. They traded Murray and White because they weren't on the right timelines to build a contender. Vassell and Sochan synergize extremely well with a Trae and Wemby team, have shown good progress, and are also on the correct timeline. Keldon is different because a) his ceiling is limited due to his physical limitations and b) he doesn't synergize as well with a Trae-Wemby team. They would rather keep Vassell and Sochan and rather give up picks as their contention window opens with Trae on board.

[CGD]

Liking the Matas love. He’s 2nd for me after Risacher in terms of “fit” picks.

I was shocked to see that Holland got no run, wonder what happened there?

[CGD]

I think they are going to try pretty hard to hold onto Vassell and Sochan. Keldon I'm not as sure about. They traded Murray and White because they weren't on the right timelines to build a contender. Vassell and Sochan synergize extremely well with a Trae and Wemby team, have shown good progress, and are also on the correct timeline. Keldon is different because a) his ceiling is limited due to his physical limitations and b) he doesn't synergize as well with a Trae-Wemby team. They would rather keep Vassell and Sochan and rather give up picks as their contention window opens with Trae on board.

Keldon would be an awesome 6th man on the next good spurs team, but I also think they did the descending contract precisely because they intend to move him at some point.

He’d have to be in the Trae trade right?

[mo7888]

The Hawks would say no. Would be a dumb move on their part to trade Young and let the Spurs keep their 25 pick. Not even they are that stupid. They don't have to trade Trae, but I assume they might if the package is right. Obviously the Spurs won't want to give them Sochan or Vassell, so that means we have to throw in more picks. Like I said, I assume it's all the ATL picks and swaps plus at least 2 firsts.

Who's going to make a better offer?

Lot's of people say 'Atl won't take that', but nobody has really given an example of a better offer that any other team is willing to make. So, who's beating it?

[exstatic]

Who's going to make a better offer?

Lot's of people say 'Atl won't take that', but nobody has really given an example of a better offer that any other team is willing to make. So, who's beating it?

Hopefully someone, so we can leverage those picks from a Trae-less Hawks team.

[mo7888]

Hopefully someone, so we can leverage those picks from a Trae-less Hawks team.

I get that.... I'm just reiterating the point that offers are relative. Just saying 'they'll never take that' is pointless unless someone else has a stronger offer on the table. I'm also suggesting that Trae's value isn't as high as most think and the fact that nobody can come up with a realistic superior offer is evidence of that.

[SpursBills]

I get that.... I'm just reiterating the point that offers are relative. Just saying 'they'll never take that' is pointless unless someone else has a stronger offer on the table. I'm also suggesting that Trae's value isn't as high as most think and the fact that nobody can come up with a realistic superior offer is evidence of that.

I don't think that you just have to beat other teams' offer. You have to offer enough that the prospect of losing Trae is worth more to Hawks' ownership than keeping him. A lot of ownership groups aren't thinking "championship or bust" and have no problem being a treadmill team as long as they continue to sell tickets rather than blowing it up. They would be more willing to trade Trae if he asked out or became a locker room cancer but so far there's been no indication of that. Even if he did publicly ask out, front offices recently have been more willing to hold onto disgruntled stars for an extended period of time until a deal they like materializes.

[The Truth #6]

1757541536848384312

1758228243201872100

Maybe I need to watch that clip again. But I don't remember hearing anything that makes me think, "Oh, yeah, Spurs are getting him!!!" It sounded like Rondo mostly saying he's underappreciated. But hey, if this helps create a false narrative that eventually picks up steam, sure, cool.

[Dejounte]

Maybe I need to watch that clip again. But I don't remember hearing anything that makes me think, "Oh, yeah, Spurs are getting him!!!" It sounded like Rondo mostly saying he's underappreciated. But hey, if this helps create a false narrative that eventually picks up steam, sure, cool.

Those are two unrelated tweets that he’s sharing

[The Truth #6]

Those are two unrelated tweets that he’s sharing

Thanks. Makes more sense.

[mo7888]

I don't think that you just have to beat other teams' offer. You have to offer enough that the prospect of losing Trae is worth more to Hawks' ownership than keeping him. A lot of ownership groups aren't thinking "championship or bust" and have no problem being a treadmill team as long as they continue to sell tickets rather than blowing it up. They would be more willing to trade Trae if he asked out or became a locker room cancer but so far there's been no indication of that. Even if he did publicly ask out, front offices recently have been more willing to hold onto disgruntled stars for an extended period of time until a deal they like materializes.

Then let them keep him. He's a nice player, but he's not worth valuing more than every other team in the league values him by a significant number just because Atlanta ownership desires to be 'mid'.

Also, all of the smoke about Atl trading him has been put out by either Trae's camp or Atl management, so their heading towards a trade either way. Atl may be happy with 'mid', but they can't even do that successfully with the acrimony thats coming.

[RC_Drunkford]

Who's going to make a better offer?

Lot's of people say 'Atl won't take that', but nobody has really given an example of a better offer that any other team is willing to make. So, who's beating it?

that's not the point. The point is ATL can just stand pat. And if the T'Wolves offer KAT, there's your better offer

[The Truth #6]

My plumber's gym buddy's friend from Junior High said he talked to a realtor friend who saw Trae Young's wife in SA looking for houses! It's happening!

[R. DeMurre]

It's an interesting idea that Atlanta would think they can't build around Trae, so they're going to trade him, tank, hope to get a Wemby-like #1 option via the draft or free agency, and then go out and find another Trae-like guy to be the #2 option.

Have to say, I'm not moved at all by Rondo paying the guy compliments. That happens all the time. He also emphasizes how Trae is "always the shortest guy on the floor."
The narrative of the little guy doing well is nice, but that doesn't win titles, and players often let their emotions rule their basketball opinions over other factors. LeBron and AD honestly thought trading for Westbrook was a good move, and we all see how that turned out-- as did the vast majority of analysts before the three played a single game together. Players back in the day loved Iverson more than Duncan because Iverson had the same "little guy vs the world" narrative and more alleged "street cred." But he still finished his career with zero rings-- which was totally predictable, as 6' SGs statistically almost never win rings.

[mo7888]

that's not the point. The point is ATL can just stand pat. And if the T'Wolves offer KAT, there's your better offer

But it's exactly the point. There's no world where we should bid against ourselves in attempt to 'pry' him away. If they want to keep him and pay him $43M/per+ to be 'mid', then so be it.

I mean if he's not 'available' and we're trying to pry him away with a Godfather package then we should be canvassing the league for better players to pry away with that package.

[mo7888]

But it's exactly the point. There's no world where we should bid against ourselves in attempt to 'pry' him away. If they want to keep him and pay him $43M/per+ to be 'mid', then so be it.

I mean if he's not 'available' and we're trying to pry him away with a Godfather package then we should be canvassing the league for better players to pry away with that package.

And Yes, KAT would be a better offer, so would Embiid, or Joker, but none of those are on the table nor likely to be. What incentive does Minnesota have to trade KAT when they are at the top of the west? Last summer that may have made sense, but not now.

[JPB]

I don't think that you just have to beat other teams' offer. You have to offer enough that the prospect of losing Trae is worth more to Hawks' ownership than keeping him. A lot of ownership groups aren't thinking "championship or bust" and have no problem being a treadmill team as long as they continue to sell tickets rather than blowing it up. They would be more willing to trade Trae if he asked out or became a locker room cancer but so far there's been no indication of that. Even if he did publicly ask out, front offices recently have been more willing to hold onto disgruntled stars for an extended period of time until a deal they like materializes.

hum, sorry but that's the opposite. Every big star who asked for a trade(or both parts wanted to part ways) recently got their request answered pretty quickly, Kyrie, Durant, Harden, Lillard... And for good reason, when a star says he wants out, time is against you as an FO. The more time passe, the more he loses value, fans start to quit on him, that's a huge distraction in and around your franchise, the media, and no team today wants to hold on too long on a disgrintled star who wouldn't put the effort on and off the field. Look at the mess Nephew caused in SA and he didn"t even asked out publicly... And teams can"t react or answer the same way, not to hurt their brand and credibility among other players...Look at how Harden tried to discredit Morey.

NBA is a players league, now. If Trae asks out this summer, he's gone before next season starts.

[scott]

I get that.... I'm just reiterating the point that offers are relative. Just saying 'they'll never take that' is pointless unless someone else has a stronger offer on the table. I'm also suggesting that Trae's value isn't as high as most think and the fact that nobody can come up with a realistic superior offer is evidence of that.

As others have pointed out, I think the offer to beat is Atlanta simply keeping Trae. Until he demands a trade, that is the default position.

[scott]

But it's exactly the point. There's no world where we should bid against ourselves in attempt to 'pry' him away. If they want to keep him and pay him $43M/per+ to be 'mid', then so be it.

I mean if he's not 'available' and we're trying to pry him away with a Godfather package then we should be canvassing the league for better players to pry away with that package.

I get your point, but I think it's also clouded by your own personal opinion's of Trae's value (which is fine, but isn't really all that meaningful in a practical sense - not because you are wrong, but because no one actually involved cares about any of our opinions).

There are a few assumptions you have to make when evaluating this:

1) That the Spurs want Trae Young. If they're going to pursue him, it's because they want him. If they didn't, they wouldn't. There is not going to be a "yeah, I'd take him on an uber cheap deal but I don't really love it" kind of move that an online forum poster would make
2) Trae is a bonafide all-star, and there is a cost that can't simply be ignored, even if you are the only bidder.
3) The Hawks dealing with the Spurs means that almost necessarily, the Hawks are going to want their own '25 back as a starting place. This is the one element of the deal that is kind of non-negotiable as a starting place. If the Spurs value that pick more than they do Trae Young, a deal won't happen.

Looking at recent All-Stars on the move (noting, not all of these are created equal):



Durant to Suns: 4 unprotected FRPs, one swap, one borderline all-star, and one very good young player. This is the highest end of the market, Trae does not warrant a deal like this. It is, however, worth mentioning that this trade was also precipitated by Durant asking for a trade
Kyrie to Mavs: another case where the player asked for a trade. Nets got two good role players, one FRP and 2 SRPs. This is on the low end of the market, but Kyrie is a special character.
Harden to 76ers: another case where player asked for a trade. Nets got a former all-star who it wasn't totally quite clear at the time was completely broken (who also asked for a trade - Simmons), two role players, and two FRPs.
Vuvevic to Bulls: Magic got a good young prspect and two FRPs
DJM to Hawks: Spurs got 2 unprotected FRPs, a pick swap, and a highly protected FRP
Russ to Houston: OKC got an all-star PG back (CP3), 1 unprotected FRP, 2 top-4 protected FRPs, two swaps.
Gobert to Minny: Utah got: role players, draft rights to Kessler, 4 FRPs, one swap
Mitchell to Cavs: Utah gets a good young player who had not quite shown his full potential (Lauri), a 23-yo guard who had multiple 20+ppg seasons already, 3 FRPs, 2 swaps
Lillard to Bucks: Perhaps the ultimate case of zero leverage by the trading team, Blazers only get an overpriced youngish C, 1 FRP, two Swaps



To me, Mitchell might be the most illustrative trade. At the time he was moved, he was 25, a 3-time all star, but no all-NBA teams. His WS/48 ranged between 0.92-.167, and his BPM had been 4.3 for two consecutive seasons.

At the point Trae will prospectively be traded, he's 25, a 3-time all star, an All-NBA 3rd team under his belt. His WS/48 has ranged between 0.062 (rookie year) and 0.181 (though always > 0.1 since his rookie year) and his BPM has been higher (5.2) than Mitchell's peak but his last few years have not been as good as Mitchell's last two years in Utah (3.3 and 2.7).

Trae and Mitchell are similar on paper, I'd rate Mitchell as a better prospect than Trae at the time he was traded, but not by much. We don't have a Lauri or Sexton to send to Atlanta (outside of Vassell, who I think we all agree we'd like to keep), so that will have to be made up in draft capital.

I'd say a "fair" trade (keeping in mind the assumptions above) would be something like ATL '25 + ATL '27 + TOR '24 + CHA '24 + Keldon + Branham. I would definitely like to keep TOR '24 if I could... maybe ATL '26 Swap can go there instead. This is a lower price than what CLE paid for Mitchell, IMO.

Now, if Trae asks out... that definitely changes things. And I bet there would be a few teams who would scramble some offers together. If you just take TOR '24 out of the deal above, I really like it and I'd do it, personally. Not sure if that is enough. If I am ATL, I am asking for BETTER OF ATL/SA '25.

[Mr. Body]

As others have pointed out, I think the offer to beat is Atlanta simply keeping Trae. Until he demands a trade, that is the default position.

Yes, it's a lot of chatter for an unlikely thing. I can see Lakers pushing for him, but unless they can replace the lost picks in the next few years, making the trade is senseless.

- Lakers will want a Trae Young to play alongside LeBron/Davis to extend the window and partly because they make bad decisions nowadays. Problem: cannot refill Atlanta's coffers in the window where Atlanta would be tanking and not own their picks.
- Houston, Utah have the assets but Jazz have a longer horizon and Ainge is too smart for this. Houston has FVV but has the short-term picks to entice. Don't see it happening.
- No other team will want a high usage guard who doesn't win basketball games. Maybe, like, Chicago to change fortunes, but don't have the short-term picks to entice.
- Spurs, but nothing about this franchise, its history, its many recent pronouncements about their plans and horizon, suggest they would ever do this.

[exstatic]

My plumber's gym buddy's friend from Junior High said he talked to a realtor friend who saw Trae Young's wife in SA looking for houses! It's happening!

He was also talking to someone’s girlfriend’s cousin at 31 flavors.

[Mr. Body]

3) The Hawks dealing with the Spurs means that almost necessarily, the Hawks are going to want their own '25 back as a starting place. This is the one element of the deal that is kind of non-negotiable as a starting place. If the Spurs value that pick more than they do Trae Young, a deal won't happen.


Yes, they would hinge on the return of the 2025 pick. The Hawks don't HAVE to trade Young AT ALL. If all they can get are crap packages, it makes FAR more sense to go in with him another year and keep that pick. Trading him for next to nothing is senseless.

Although I don't think in any universe a trade for Young happens, the Spurs could give the Toronto pick or the worst of their own/Atlanta pick in 2025. I would NOT trade Atlanta's own pick back to them if it looks like they are tanking.

[exstatic]

Yes, they would hinge on the return of the 2025 pick. The Hawks don't HAVE to trade Young AT ALL. If all they can get are crap packages, it makes FAR more sense to go in with him another year and keep that pick. Trading him for next to nothing is senseless.

Although I don't think in any universe a trade for Young happens, the Spurs could give the Toronto pick or the worst of their own/Atlanta pick in 2025. I would NOT trade Atlanta's own pick back to them if it looks like they are tanking.

The problem with waiting a year is that he has an opt out after the second year. He becomes less valuable with only one year left.

[Mr. Body]

The problem with waiting a year is that he has an opt out after the second year. He becomes less valuable with only one year left.

They're not trading him anyway. But even if he opts out, who would want him that has room?

[Knoxxx]

Seems like Trae with Wemby is a must do if we could. Trae can outscore the other teams PG and is a crazy good passer. Also he’d probably get better looks from 3 and be able to up his efficiency there. Draft picks, volume is good but will always be a crap shoot.

[RC_Drunkford]

But it's exactly the point. There's no world where we should bid against ourselves in attempt to 'pry' him away. If they want to keep him and pay him $43M/per+ to be 'mid', then so be it.

I mean if he's not 'available' and we're trying to pry him away with a Godfather package then we should be canvassing the league for better players to pry away with that package.

I agree. I wouldn't overpay for Trae Young either, since those picks would look good too. There are rumors out there that KAT is getting traded in the offseason.

[objective]

It may not mean anything because he's just another media guy, but Vecenie on his most recent podcast insisted that if Trae is even made available there would be a bidding war for him.

He does NBA team sources mostly in the scouting realm. But it does line up with a view that Trae wouldn't be cheap to get.

[r0drig0lac]

https://twitter.com/najeeadams_/status/1758923030418309222

[exstatic]

It may not mean anything because he's just another media guy, but Vecenie on his most recent podcast insisted that if Trae is even made available there would be a bidding war for him.

He does NBA team sources mostly in the scouting realm. But it does line up with a view that Trae wouldn't be cheap to get.

The best case is that they trade him somewhere else for picks only.

[Chinook]

Atlanta might just want to build around Murray for a few years too. DJM is an extremely scrappy player who's easy to root for. Him, Johnson and the haul for Young might give them a watchable team for a few years. There's a middle ground between a player asking about and a player not wanting to leave. My guess is that Young primarily wants to secure the DPE this summer. If that's not on the table, he'd probably be fine being dealt to a better situation. I do think objective is misreading the value of the picks the Spurs have, but others are overrating the value of the Hawks' picks to Atlanta. Trading for your own picks is betting on the downside of your team's performance. For better or worse, most clubs do not do that.

The Hawks may not want to tank and would rather take another team's future instead of getting its own back. They could basically get control of the Lakers' pick in 2025 and 2026 in addition to the future years. That could net them better picks than their natural picks. As said before, one of the reasons why "war chests" seem to never be fully used on grab elite players is because teams don't tend to want a bunch of picks from other teams when they could have a single team in a strangle hold. That's both because it's rarely good to have a bunch of picks in one year (like war chests have) and because a team with little access to draft picks will find it hard to have sustained success. The Thunder are trying to move their meh picks early to extend the life of their stash. It's a good strategy and one the Spurs should consider starting this summer. That will help, but they're still going to find themselves with a fair bit less leverage in deals than some posters suggest.

That does not mean they should "use it while they can" on Young. Timeline still matters, and as I've suggested, you can make an argument that Trae is one of the worst targets in that regard. It more means they should be active in using and maintaining it each year rather than passively hoping it turns into the right pieces or chasing every potential deal that gets rumored.

[TD 21]

I hate to be redundant, but I still think those opposed to this are not realizing how valuable having 3 of their own picks back would be. Whether on their own volition or not, they'd be likely to enter a re-build relatively soon and even in a mid-build, one significant injury or reasonable lottery luck and one or more could be top 3-5 easily.

Also, how difficult and unlikely it'll be to get someone who checks virtually every box (bigger, better "cultural" fit, etc.) and at the precise moment Wembanyama is "ready".

A few things I haven't mentioned . . .

- Johnson, if not rerouted, would make it easier for them to attempt to salary dump Hunter or sign and trade Bey.

- They'll likely be a "Lakers tax", since most of the league can't stand the fact that they always get stars.

- The Spurs and Hawks have a myriad of connections (Ferry, Fields, Snyder), which often help pave the way for significant trades.

- Young may try to apply pressure to beat others to the coveted role of Wembanyama co-star.

- Wembanyama continues to make comments that indicate he's not interested in waiting for a competent team to surround him.

[scott]

The cake appears partially baked at this point. Young continually makes hints, the Spurs have (apparently) expressed some degree of interest. There are fans who would like, and other who would dislike, the move. All of the arguments have pretty much been made, all that's left is for it to happen, or not, but I think folks should disabuse themselves of the notion that Trae is coming for some absurdly cheap package like ATL '27 + CHI '25 + CHA '24.

Buckle up.

[Mr. Body]

The cake appears partially baked at this point. Young continually makes hints, the Spurs have (apparently) expressed some degree of interest. There are fans who would like, and other who would dislike, the move. All of the arguments have pretty much been made, all that's left is for it to happen, or not, but I think folks should disabuse themselves of the notion that Trae is coming for some absurdly cheap package like ATL '27 + CHI '25 + CHA '24.

Buckle up.

Media definitely wants it to happen. They need eyes and clicks. Trae wants it to happen. He needs someone to save him from not being able to lead a team to victories. What matters is whether the Spurs team wants it and nothing in their make-up or what they've said or recently done suggests there would be much interest.

[Dejounte]

The 2025 Hawks pick is only worth getting from Atlanta is if the Spurs are a good team next season themselves. Otherwise, they’ll have a shot at the top pick anyway so what’s the point? If the Spurs plan to or are expected to be bad again next season, are they really just going to add two more top talented players and think that will catapult them into relevancy? At some point, they have to make a play towards a Gobert or Mitchell type move to make it to the next level. Folks who think the Spurs just keep everyone they have because it’s the Spurs’ Way need a rude awakening. I thought they learned that it’s not really like that when homegrown players like Lonnie, White, DJ were given away.

[Mr. Body]

The 2025 Hawks pick is only worth getting from Atlanta is if the Spurs are a good team next season themselves. Otherwise, they’ll have a shot at the top pick anyway so what’s the point? If the Spurs plan to or are expected to be bad again next season, are they really just going to add two more top talented players and think that will catapult them into relevancy?

First question... is that a serious question? If they more or less duplicate their standings from this year, that's a 50% chance of a top four pick plus a 20% chance a top four pick. You could even wind up with two top picks. If something goes really bad for Atlanta (injuries, etc.), the chances rise.

Second question... Yes? How else are you going to build a young team? This is how every young team develops instead of taking massive swings at expensive veterans. I'm not sure if that's ever worked for a team that isn't ready for it.

[RC_Drunkford]

the 25 and 26 drafts have supposedly generational talents at the top, so if a team decided to tank it makes sense to do it then. It's only logical for the Hawks to want their draft picks back. There will be a bidding war over Young, but we hold the most valuable assets by far.

[RC_Drunkford]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6xPlzoJgjQ&t=20s


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4gRS39-Pno&t=13s


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj_Z1Eg9Ld8&t=10s

[RC_Drunkford]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3P91qhJOMU&t=13s


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Fq9OMOJhw&t=30s

1730429644480872630

btw Young is 11th in steals in the NBA

[Dejounte]

First question... is that a serious question? If they more or less duplicate their standings from this year, that's a 50% chance of a top four pick plus a 20% chance a top four pick. You could even wind up with two top picks. If something goes really bad for Atlanta (injuries, etc.), the chances rise.

Second question... Yes? How else are you going to build a young team? This is how every young team develops instead of taking massive swings at expensive veterans. I'm not sure if that's ever worked for a team that isn't ready for it.

This doesn’t address the point I was making. I wasn’t saying they’d give up all their picks in the future. I’m saying putting their eggs in the “let’s have our future young players carry us into relevancy” is not a great strategy. I named a few examples where teams were put back into relevancy because they traded for stars. Oklahoma is the lone example they keep bringing up but the number of teams brought up the other way is overwhelming.

[TD 21]

Trading for your own picks is betting on the downside of your team's performance. For better or worse, most clubs do not do that.

The Hawks may not want to tank and would rather take another team's future instead of getting its own back. They could basically get control of the Lakers' pick in 2025 and 2026 in addition to the future years. That could net them better picks than their natural picks.

Or being realistic. They're a perennial play-in team with Young. Without him, they either stay in that range with better balance or get worse.

Davis and Young would probably them respectable through the majority of the decade and they'll always get another superstar or star to bail them out before long.

I think you're over analyzing and thinking this by trying to idealize it. It's really not that complicated.



The 2025 Hawks pick is only worth getting from Atlanta is if the Spurs are a good team next season themselves. Otherwise, they’ll have a shot at the top pick anyway so what’s the point? If the Spurs plan to or are expected to be bad again next season, are they really just going to add two more top talented players and think that will catapult them into relevancy? At some point, they have to make a play towards a Gobert or Mitchell type move to make it to the next level. Folks who think the Spurs just keep everyone they have because it’s the Spurs’ Way need a rude awakening. I thought they learned that it’s not really like that when homegrown players like Lonnie, White, DJ were given away.

That's the crux of a lot of the takes around here. People just have this notion that they'll magically recreate the past if they're just patient and lucking into Wembanyama reinforced that even more for them.

Yes, it'd be nice if Young were bigger or had a pristine reputation, but you don't get to pick your stars and there's a miniscule chance of drafting (especially with how they limit their options) or trading for someone as good and well fitting as him anytime soon.

[CGD]

The cake appears partially baked at this point. Young continually makes hints, the Spurs have (apparently) expressed some degree of interest. There are fans who would like, and other who would dislike, the move. All of the arguments have pretty much been made, all that's left is for it to happen, or not, but I think folks should disabuse themselves of the notion that Trae is coming for some absurdly cheap package like ATL '27 + CHI '25 + CHA '24.

Buckle up.

It wouldn’t be a cheep package, but the Spurs dont need to throw everything at them. Show me what other team is making the mega offer first. Spurs will need to throw Keldon into the deal, and he has value in his own right too.