There is Markannen to Spurs Buzz

[Seventyniner]

Since we're back at making potential trade scenarios, I'll repost this from a couple of weeks back. With some updates because stuff happened since.

How would you value our picks?

'26 ATL/SAS swap and '27 ATL are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be among worst 8 teams in both '26 and '27.
'25 CHA is probably not going to convey, but they did improve their roster significantly and they might just make the play-in since so many East teams are going to blatantly tank.

'28 BOS and '30 DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
'30 MIN swap and '31 MIN top1 protected are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those MIN picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

Just picking a couple of tiny nits: the MIN30 swap is top 1 protected and the MIN31 first is unprotected, and the Spurs also have unprotected swap rights with SAC in 20131. SA31 (with SAC swap rights) should be on the list somewhere, maybe even as high as 4th because it's far enough out that the optionality has a lot of value. Plus it's freaking Sacramento, the Celtics got Tatum because they had unprotected swap rights with the Kings.

[baseline bum]

That's a desperate overpay. If Spurs offered something close to that, Lauri would have been a spur next day. Because nobody else is able to make an offer even close to this.

The fact that Jazz is still negotiating with Warriors for 2 Podziemsk + 2 picks means spurs didn't offer that much.

You're like buying a Tesla for $100k. Really nice car, but you don't have double pay just because you have the money.

Where are you hearing the Jazz only want two picks plus Podz for Markannen? Of course they're not taking that offer, especially since those two picks can't be 2029 and 2031 when Curry is retired or on the edge of it due to the Stepien rule when they owe part of their 2030 pick to Washington from the Jordan Poole trade. Golden State can't offer Utah a compelling package until they get a 2030 first to allow them to trade 2029 and 2031. Ainge isn't going to give Markannen away for Podz plus two picks that will be in the 20s with Curry + Markannen leading them back to being a top 5 seed in the west. Spurs could easily crush that offer and would.

[Mugen]

I don't know if it's for Markannen but I buy the Keldon being actively shopped rumors. Lot of weird smoke with him and CP3's number tbh :lol

[LeBowen]

Just picking a couple of tiny nits: the MIN30 swap is top 1 protected and the MIN31 first is unprotected, and the Spurs also have unprotected swap rights with SAC in 20131. SA31 (with SAC swap rights) should be on the list somewhere, maybe even as high as 4th because it's far enough out that the optionality has a lot of value. Plus it's freaking Sacramento, the Celtics got Tatum because they had unprotected swap rights with the Kings.

You're right, I forgot that one because I just copied my old post and added CHA pick since they're actually building a functional roster.


I don't know if it's for Markannen but I buy the Keldon being actively shopped rumors. Lot of weird smoke with him and CP3's number tbh :lol

But if he goes, a wing with at least respectable 3pt shot has to come our way.
I don't see Spurs trading for Cam Johnson, Lauri seems like the only reasonable option.

I'll keep hoping for the best and hope Brian told Ainge to call him when he gets Warriors' best and final offer because we can easily beat it if it's worth it.

[Mugen]

I could see Keldon going for peanuts tbh.

[scott]

Since we're back at making potential trade scenarios, I'll repost this from a couple of weeks back. With some updates because stuff happened since.

How would you value our picks?

'26 ATL/SAS swap and '27 ATL are easily the most valuable, I'd argue those two are more valuable than 4 FRPs Knicks traded for Bridges.
'25 ATL isn't as valuable as those with Trae still on the roster.
'25 SAS loses value if we trade it for Markkanen.
'27 and onwards SAS picks are hopefully well into 20s.
'25 CHI could convey because Bulls hate tanking and they shouldn't be among worst 8 teams in both '26 and '27.
'25 CHA is probably not going to convey, but they did improve their roster significantly and they might just make the play-in since so many East teams are going to blatantly tank.

'28 BOS and '30 DAL swaps probably won't be great, maybe if DAL implodes.
'30 MIN swap and '31 MIN top1 protected are a complete unknown, I can see them dropping out of contention by then because this is the best roster they can put together and 7 years is a long time to go.
I'd say those MIN picks would be up there with ATL picks for Ainge, he wants to control MIN's future even more.

Since Jazz has so many FRPs, there are also some options to effectively trade down.
For example, trading '26 ATL/SAS for '26 MIN/CLE would still have a lot of value for them.
Or trading '27 ATL for '27 CLE.
Even if we end up with no FRP in '26 draft it's not the end of the world because we have 5 SRPs that year and could easily move up to mid-20s if we really like someone.

My opinion still hasn't changed, in that topic Dejounte made I went over every single wing in the league with potential high end starter or all-star upside, if we talk the next two offseasons Markkanen and Naz Reid are the only realistic targets that wouldn't murder our cap situation, wouldn't cost us Devin and are still fairly young.
With all the picks we own, Markkenen is a no-brainer.
If we don't get him, trading away #8 and not taking a swing with any of those young forwards will look idiotic.

I love this discussion, and I once started a thread on it. I'll dig it up and quote you with this there so we can continue that discussion there in the absence of it being in the context of Lauri.

I'm also working on the concept for post that does some statistical analysis on the value of far out swaps (like, 20131 far out - when natural variance takes over and you can't predict who will be good or not). Specifically I want to measure the marginal impact of acquiring additional swaps in the same year (what I'll call "Vertical Swap Acquisition" as opposed to "Horizontal Swap Acquisition", which would be acquiring swaps across multiple years). For the stats nerds in here, I think it will be a banger.

[Seventyniner]

I love this discussion, and I once started a thread on it. I'll dig it up and quote you with this there so we can continue that discussion there in the absence of it being in the context of Lauri.

I'm also working on the concept for post that does some statistical analysis on the value of far out swaps (like, 20131 far out - when natural variance takes over and you can't predict who will be good or not). Specifically I want to measure the marginal impact of acquiring additional swaps in the same year (what I'll call "Vertical Swap Acquisition" as opposed to "Horizontal Swap Acquisition", which would be acquiring swaps across multiple years). For the stats nerds in here, I think it will be a banger.

I'm looking forward to it. Coming from you it should be high quality.

Here's a useful source, showing that a team's record 5 years out is almost entirely uncorrelated with their most recent record.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/6/27/18760309/nba-title-windows

[scott]

I'm looking forward to it. Coming from you it should be high quality.

Here's a useful source, showing that a team's record 5 years out is almost entirely uncorrelated with their most recent record.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/6/27/18760309/nba-title-windows

Thanks for this link! That aligns with my non-quantified thinking, that after 5 years it all comes to natural variance, since that's the longest contract a player can have so you can't really predict anything after that.

[scott]

On the Jazz subreddit, folks seem to think Lauri will go to GSW or SAS. They are even going so far as to ranking Warriors and Jazz players and picks so they can say what packages they prefer.

One thing I saw was this though:




As far as possible young players go, I admittedly haven't watched a ton of any of them but I think I'd go in this order


Vassell
Podz
Kuminga
Sissoko
K. Johnson
Moody



I just found it hilarious that anyone would rate Sidy this high.

[Spurs Homer]

Id let vassell go - way before keldon and/or sochan tbh

be careful what you wish for utah fans - you might get it

[Manu20]

Id let vassell go - way before keldon and/or sochan tbh

be careful what you wish for utah fans - you might get it

Nooooooo

A trio of Wemby, Lauri, and Vassell compliment each other almost perfectly! Trading Vassell to get Lauri is a lateral move IMO.

[Ice009]

Keeping Vassell is what makes it work.

[John B]

On the Jazz subreddit, folks seem to think Lauri will go to GSW or SAS. They are even going so far as to ranking Warriors and Jazz players and picks so they can say what packages they prefer.

One thing I saw was this though:



I just found it hilarious that anyone would rate Sidy this high.

Did anybody ask for Tre? Or Zollins??

Vassell is hard to let go. I think Vassell is the 2nd option in the Wemby/Vassell/Markkannen trio.

But yeah, they can have Sidy too

[baseline bum]

On the Jazz subreddit, folks seem to think Lauri will go to GSW or SAS. They are even going so far as to ranking Warriors and Jazz players and picks so they can say what packages they prefer.

One thing I saw was this though:



I just found it hilarious that anyone would rate Sidy this high.

They're not getting Vassell unless it's like Vassell, the Spurs 2028 (best of Spurs/Celtics), and the 2031 Minnesota pick. Even that I'm hesitant to offer. If they think they're getting a good young player and a Bridges haul of picks ROFL, Makannen ain't Durant.

[exstatic]

Thanks for this link! That aligns with my non-quantified thinking, that after 5 years it all comes to natural variance, since that's the longest contract a player can have so you can't really predict anything after that.

I would think you might need to rank team history in there, somewhere, too. I don’t think all teams have the same ups and downs.

[scott]

Did anybody ask for Tre? Or Zollins??

Vassell is hard to let go. I think Vassell is the 2nd option in the Wemby/Vassell/Markkannen trio.

But yeah, they can have Sidy too


They're not getting Vassell unless it's like Vassell, the Spurs 2028 (best of Spurs/Celtics), and the 2031 Minnesota pick. Even that I'm hesitant to offer. If they think they're getting a good young player and a Bridges haul of picks ROFL, Makannen ain't Durant.

Yeah, I responded to the dude that Sidy is garbage and they shouldn't really rate him, but Vassell was pretty much off the table. They seem to enjoy the honest feedback.


I would think you might need to rank team history in there, somewhere, too. I don’t think all teams have the same ups and downs.

Yeah, I would like to build a model where you could assign some kind of "probability of being good" but it complicates things a little bit - so I'll probably just stick with a straight, all far-out possibilities are equal type scenario. Which in some respects makes sense because, yes there is a stronger chance that a bad franchise like MIN will be bad in the future than a "good" franchise like SAS, BOS, or LAL (the three winningest franchises of all time), but all franchises go through down periods and anything can happen (injury, for example) in any given year.

But, it is interesting. I finished grad school 20 years ago, but one of my favorite things was trying to predictively model out things that are general not predictable or based on some logic on a micro scale but are still subject to predictable variation on a macro level. For example, can you model out human nature, which at an individual level is not predictable, but tends to be so when looking at large populations of people. Anyway, I digress.

[Spurs Homer]

Nooooooo

A trio of Wemby, Lauri, and Vassell compliment each other almost perfectly! Trading Vassell to get Lauri is a lateral move IMO.

sure,

instead of snubbing wemby who is wide open for a lob dunk…

vassell will snub BOTH wemby and lauri and dribble around 40 feet from the basket and jack up a triple teamed fallaway jumper that misses

[DAF86]

Id let vassell go - way before keldon and/or sochan tbh

Dude, no. Just no. How can you watch the Spurs all season long and get it so wrong? Just accept you are wrong and sit this one out.

[Spurs Homer]

Dude, no. Just no. How can you watch the Spurs all season long and get it so wrong? Just accept you are wrong and sit this one out.

keldon and sochan have heart and play with heart

vassell is one knee injury away from being done and he thinks he is just as important as wemby and snubs him when wemby is open and asking for the ball

at least keldon and sochan get to work on defense and scrap

[LeBowen]

While we're at it, we should've signed Pat Bev instead of CP3.

[spurraider21]

They're not getting Vassell unless it's like Vassell, the Spurs 2028 (best of Spurs/Celtics), and the 2031 Minnesota pick. Even that I'm hesitant to offer. If they think they're getting a good young player and a Bridges haul of picks ROFL, Makannen ain't Durant.
I wouldn’t offer that tbh

[scott]

I'd do Vassell for Lauri straight up, but that's about it if I'm giving up Devin (which I don't want to do). Then I'd go use all the picks I just saved in getting Lauri to go find a replacement for Devin. Not ideal, but I could live with it. But again... not my preferred route.

[FkLA]

keldon and sochan have heart and play with heart

vassell is one knee injury away from being done and he thinks he is just as important as wemby and snubs him when wemby is open and asking for the ball

at least keldon and sochan get to work on defense and scrap

Imagine valuing players based on "heart" and "scrappiness" :lol

[SpursFan86]

Yeah, I don’t think Lauri is THAT much of an upgrade over Devin to warrant giving up really any noticeable draft assets…in a vacuum, sure, but not when factoring in the difference of salary Vassell will be owed over the next several years vs. Lauri’s projected salary.

[scott]

Yeah, I don’t think Lauri is THAT much of an upgrade over Devin to warrant giving up really any noticeable draft assets…in a vacuum, sure, but not when factoring in the difference of salary Vassell will be owed over the next several years vs. Lauri’s projected salary.

Not to mention Devin's age.

I do think that Lauri is a better player than Devin and Devin will be lucky to ever reach Lauri's level of scoring efficiency at any point in his career... but Devin is younger and (at least for the next 5 years) cheaper (in aggregate). Those at least equal the two players out, and honestly I could make a fair argument that if the Jazz wanted Devin, they'd have to send Lauri + assets.

[Degoat]

I’m a big fan of Dev’s, think he’s a perfect 2 guard for a team wanting to contend, but he’s gotta stay healthy. These weird injuries that he gets each year is troubling for such a young player.

[SpursFan86]

I’m a big fan of Dev’s, think he’s a perfect 2 guard for a team wanting to contend, but he’s gotta stay healthy. These weird injuries that he gets each year is troubling for such a young player.

I don’t disagree, but in the context of Markannen: Vassell has played 6 more games than Markannen in the past 4 years.

[widowmaker]

I’m a big fan of Dev’s, think he’s a perfect 2 guard for a team wanting to contend, but he’s gotta stay healthy. These weird injuries that he gets each year is troubling for such a young player.


What about that right knee that starts flaring up towards the end of the season?

[Ice009]

What about that right knee that starts flaring up towards the end of the season?

How many issues has Devin had with the knee? I never got to watch the games the last few weeks of the season. I was trying to watch them on NBA league pass, but I kept getting buffering issues so I gave up. Hopefully it's good going forward and it was just precautionary.

[widowmaker]

How many issues has Devin had with the knee? I never got to watch the games the last few weeks of the season. I was trying to watch them on NBA league pass, but I kept getting buffering issues so I gave up. Hopefully it's good going forward and it was just precautionary.


You can see when he lands off a jump shot that it bothers him. Gotta look it up but im sure his season has been cut short because of his knee twice.

[scott]

Haven't seen it yet, but apparently Fisher is reporting Ainge isn't interested in Keldon.

Of course, this is exactly the kind of thing you'd leak to the media if you're trying to milk more out of the Spurs. Ainge continues to do his job... but I think GSW and SAS are both holding firm.

[NASpurs]

Just playing hardball, the guy he's really eyeing is Collins to fill the white dude quota for the Jazz. Ok Ainge, you twisted our arm, you can have him.

[John B]

I see Zach as tank commander at Jazz

[scott]

Jazz have waived Darius Bazley and Kenneth Lofton Jr.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/90/2022/07/50RpHS.jpg

[exstatic]

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExeG9zZXI0OWRvZHcwMjNoMWZiejByM2o yNGgxcjRmZGJuNWZxcmkweSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/5mBE2MiMVFITS/giphy.gif

[exstatic]

https://gifdb.com/images/high/it-s-happening-jonah-hill-shouting-excited-hrpfkb9r793pdule.webp

[exstatic]

Just having some fun. I was more optimistic than some, but still pegged it as 25-30%.

[Dejounte]

Is that really a sign though?

[exstatic]

Is that really a sign though?

They’re below the floor, so it’s a sign that they have some contracts inbound in some fashion. There’s no reason to cut those guys, otherwise.

[scott]

Just having some fun. I was more optimistic than some, but still pegged it as 25-30%.

While I might want it more badly than you, I'm far less optimistic. I'd say more like 5-10% if Pop isn't in France sipping wine and watching Kerr coach. 0-1% if he is.

[exstatic]

They cleared about $4.5 M off the cap, which they didn’t need being below the floor., and two roster spots.

[scott]

They’re below the floor, so it’s a sign that they have some contracts inbound in some fashion. There’s no reason to cut those guys, otherwise.

As far as all the scrubs on their roster, these two were actually two of the more useful ones... so it's an interesting move.

And... it looks like they only have 13 guys under contract on their roster after this move.

[scott]

Jazz Reddit seems mixed on their feelings towards Lofton (some bummed, some meh), but universally indifferent to Bazley being cut.

[exstatic]

While I might want it more badly than you, I'm far less optimistic. I'd say more like 5-10% if Pop isn't in France sipping wine and watching Kerr coach. 0-1% if he is.

I Think our assumptions are different. I feel that Ainge is in a corner, and has to make a deal. I think GMs around the league are delighted, and anxious to see Danny take it in the shorts. Everyone seems to be sitting this one out, except us and GS. His market is two, and I don’t see GS being able to outbid us without crashing their franchise, post Curry. Not sure jollying Steph along for his last 2-3 years is worth 6 years in the wilderness.

[TD 21]

I don't know if it's for Markannen but I buy the Keldon being actively shopped rumors. Lot of weird smoke with him and CP3's number tbh :lol

More than likely much ado about nothing, but it was weird that Paul wasn't asked about it in his introductory press conference.

Less so, but still somewhat weird, is them seemingly going out of their way to block where his number would be in any photoshopped image (could obviously just be that it's not settled) and to pull a Dejounte, in the photos/videos online, Johnson's generally not if at all been seen in the practice facility.

[scott]

I Think our assumptions are different. I feel that Ainge is in a corner, and has to make a deal. I think GMs around the league are delighted, and anxious to see Danny take it in the shorts. Everyone seems to be sitting this one out, except us and GS. His market is two, and I don’t see GS being able to outbid us without crashing their franchise, post Curry. Not sure jollying Steph along for his last 2-3 years is worth 6 years in the wilderness.

I actually don't think we are that far off in our base assumptions, honestly. I agree with pretty much everything you said except I think the Spurs got an indication of the cost early decided they wouldn't pursue it. I just don't believe this FO has what it takes to make a bold, aggressive, BUYING move. When they eventually make one, I'll be presently surprised.

[scott]

More than likely much ado about nothing, but it was weird that Paul wasn't asked about it in his introductory press conference.

Less so, but still somewhat weird, is them seemingly going out of their way to block where his number would be in any photoshopped image (could obviously just be that it's not settled) and to pull a Dejounte, in the photos/videos online, Johnson's generally not if at all been seen in the practice facility.

For the conspiracy theory minded... all of the things TD mentions here, plus the Jazz releasing two end of roster guys, plus the convenient timing of Fisher reporting that Ainge isn't interested in Keldon could lead one to concoct a theory that something is in the works... if they were so inclined.

[Seventyniner]

If the Jazz cut Bazley and Lofton as part of some move that's strange timing. They wouldn't have to cut those guys yet, they could do it as part of whatever deal they make.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

I Think our assumptions are different. I feel that Ainge is in a corner, and has to make a deal. I think GMs around the league are delighted, and anxious to see Danny take it in the shorts. Everyone seems to be sitting this one out, except us and GS. His market is two, and I don’t see GS being able to outbid us without crashing their franchise, post Curry. Not sure jollying Steph along for his last 2-3 years is worth 6 years in the wilderness.

Based on on your input. Ainge has to trade Lauri; Spurs really need Lauri; Spurs can easily outbid warriors even with their moderate 4 FRPs. Then we should have a 95% chance of getting Lauri. The other 5% is because Lauri wants to go to Warriors.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHSk2d19o8I

I found myself agree with this guy.

[mudyez]

Well, you got me Ainge...I'm preparing to wake up and have Lauri on our team...at this point, I just hope the Charlotte and Chicago 1sts...maybe Bostons...are part of the package (for Danny to keep face), while we keep the Hawks picks...but at least the later probably wont happen.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Well, you got me Ainge...I'm preparing to wake up and have Lauri on our team (at this point, I just hope the Charlotte and Boston 1sts are part of the package (for Danny to keep face), while we keep the Hawks picks...but at least the later probably wont happen)

None of the Hawks picks should be on the table. Too valuable. One of them will be top 3 to 4 pick and we use it to find our 2nd star.

[vy65]

Hate to throw water on the fire, but ...

1816210857069576555

[scott]

Hate to throw water on the fire, but ...

1816210857069576555

Windhorst meme has received his answer :lol

[mudyez]

My personal line would be:

Keldon (even though I love this good soldier)
Charlotte '25
Bulls '25
Spurs '27
Boston '28

...Spurs keep the high upside picks/swaps and pick at least one player every year...Ainge saves face by getting four 1sts...

...but well, coz it's Ainge I doubt he will do the deal without getting at least one shot at the good stuff...but that would be a NO for me, as I dont want to see Lauri getting injured while e.g. one of the Atlanta picks hits.

[Dejounte]

Are they really that desperate for money? Now who do they fill those roster spots with?

[exstatic]

Based on on your input. Ainge has to trade Lauri; Spurs really need Lauri; Spurs can easily outbid warriors even with their moderate 4 FRPs. Then we should have a 95% chance of getting Lauri. The other 5% is because Lauri wants to go to Warriors.

Well, there is the chance that GS doesn’t care about crashing their franchise, and starts offering FRPs down the road that will have value. I don’t consider it very likely, but I accounted for it.

[exstatic]

Are they really that desperate for money? Now who do they fill those roster spots with?

They’re currently below the floor, so:dizzy

[MultiTroll]

The other 5% is because Lauri wants to go to Warriors.
What are you basing Lauri wanting to transition to the Bay Area and identify as Warrior on?

[Chinook]

I'd do Vassell for Lauri straight up, but that's about it if I'm giving up Devin (which I don't want to do). Then I'd go use all the picks I just saved in getting Lauri to go find a replacement for Devin. Not ideal, but I could live with it. But again... not my preferred route.

Vassell is well into my red line territory in a Markkanen deal. But there's a path out there where Castle is the future SG, the Spurs pick up a dynamic scoring PG, and the Spurs get a forward star. Like the team might have Garland, Castle, Markkanen, Sochan, Wembanyama as their starting five. That's a much more traditional unit than PATFO seems like want, but on paper, it makes a fair bit of sense. You'd just want at least one of Castle and Sochan to be able to shoot at an NBA level.

Devin is the most efficient third star candidate, just as Johnson is the most efficient sixth-man candidate. Their roles are important. But there are other options.

[Dejounte]

I don’t know many teams with efficient third stars that I’d pick over Vassell.

Boston has two: White and Jrue. Knicks have OG. Thunder have JWill. Most of the top teams last year mostly had a big two and then a bunch of role players. Don’t think Vassell is easily replaceable.

[Knoxxx]

Vassell + SAS 2025 FRP OR ATL 2025 FRP which do you give up?

[rankingtear]

Vassell is well into my red line territory in a Markkanen deal. But there's a path out there where Castle is the future SG, the Spurs pick up a dynamic scoring PG, and the Spurs get a forward star. Like the team might have Garland, Castle, Markkanen, Sochan, Wembanyama as their starting five. That's a much more traditional unit than PATFO seems like want, but on paper, it makes a fair bit of sense. You'd just want at least one of Castle and Sochan to be able to shoot at an NBA level.

Devin is the most efficient third star candidate, just as Johnson is the most efficient sixth-man candidate. Their roles are important. But there are other options.

Wemby extension would take that team to the second apron. Vassell contract affords you to build a good team now and post Wemby rookie deal. If your slotting guys into pecking order + contract value. Wemby and Vassell are among the top guys as the 1st and 3rd option on the second apron era.

[exstatic]

Vassell + SAS 2025 FRP OR ATL 2025 FRP which do you give up?

I don’t make that trade.

[Knoxxx]

I don’t make that trade.

That wasn’t the question.

[objective]

Today's July 24th edition of Locked On Jazz is titled, "Is Lauri Markkanen's trade value increasing?"

I watched it, and Locke says another teams front office person already told him basically he couldn't believe the deals Ainge already turned down, and then Locke went on to say that circumstances of the teams interested should increase the value for Markkanen even though the price has already been high.

He did spend some time thinking out loud (while reading an outdated list of Spurs assets that included a 2027 Toronto top 7 protected pick?) ... Basically Keldon plus the Atlanta picks and a Spurs 29 pick, it was just stream of consciousness stuff

[Mr. Body]

Today's July 24th edition of Locked On Jazz is titled, "Is Lauri Markkanen's trade value increasing?"

I watched it, and Locke says another teams front office person already told him basically he couldn't believe the deals Ainge already turned down, and then Locke went on to say that circumstances of the teams interested should increase the value for Markkanen even though the price has already been high.

He did spend some time thinking out loud (while reading an outdated list of Spurs assets that included a 2027 Toronto top 7 protected pick?) ... Basically Keldon plus the Atlanta picks and a Spurs 29 pick, it was just stream of consciousness stuff

"No one's answering our craigslist ad for our used car. Is it because people want to pay more than we're asking for?" It's certainly a take.

[Big Empty]

I wonder if all three of us are involved. Where GS trades Kuminga to the Jazz and we trade the Jazz for Kuminga

[exstatic]

That wasn’t the question.

That was, however, the answer.

[poopbox]

Vassell is well into my red line territory in a Markkanen deal. But there's a path out there where Castle is the future SG, the Spurs pick up a dynamic scoring PG, and the Spurs get a forward star. Like the team might have Garland, Castle, Markkanen, Sochan, Wembanyama as their starting five. That's a much more traditional unit than PATFO seems like want, but on paper, it makes a fair bit of sense. You'd just want at least one of Castle and Sochan to be able to shoot at an NBA level.

Devin is the most efficient third star candidate, just as Johnson is the most efficient sixth-man candidate. Their roles are important. But there are other options.

Castle and Sochan in the same lineup is almost unplayable due to the lack of shooting...unless you expect Garland and Lauri to take almost nothing but 3 pointers.

[bevo]

Ainge tax is too high. Lauri would be a great fit, but he's not worth gutting our future

[Ice009]

Based on on your input. Ainge has to trade Lauri; Spurs really need Lauri; Spurs can easily outbid warriors even with their moderate 4 FRPs. Then we should have a 95% chance of getting Lauri. The other 5% is because Lauri wants to go to Warriors.

Did Lauri say he wants to play for the Warriors?

[BacktoBasics]

Unloading any combination of 4 picks should be something you do if you’re one piece away or returning a legitimate all star. I feel like that much juice could be used more effectively for two pieces rather than one or to move up in next years draft. 4 picks for Traore seems way more interesting.

[z0sa]

Ainge tax is too high. Lauri would be a great fit, but he's not worth gutting our future

:tu this is basically where I'm at.

If Ainge wants more than a moderate haul, leave it to the Warriors or some other team whose legit star isn't 20 years old. Not saying Lauri wouldn't be a GREAT fit -- he absolutely would. But if he really wants to play here, simply don't extend and come sign here in 2025, bud. Plus at least you'll be able to drink a real beer here in Texas. No 2nd and 3rd wives tho, decisions decisions

[LeBowen]

Unloading any combination of 4 picks should be something you do if you’re one piece away or returning a legitimate all star.

The way he's been playing in Utah, Lauri is a legitimate all-star and a perfect fit next to Wemby.
Our 7 FRPs before Wemby and Castle wouldn't get us Lauri in a trade.


I feel like that much juice could be used more effectively for two pieces rather than one

Good luck getting an all-star with two FRPs.


or to move up in next years draft. 4 picks for Traore seems way more interesting.

Noone is trading down from top5 next year.


:tu this is basically where I'm at.

If Ainge wants more than a moderate haul, leave it to the Warriors or some other team whose legit star isn't 20 years old. Not saying Lauri wouldn't be a GREAT fit -- he absolutely would. But if he really wants to play here, simply don't extend and come sign here in 2025, bud. Plus at least you'll be able to drink a real beer here in Texas. No 2nd and 3rd wives tho, decisions decisions

The thing is that we don't know what his actual requests are.
Media people are there just to push narratives and agendas from each side.
Until the trade is made, we won't know if the asking price is too high.

I'm not going to lie, I'll lose my shit if Markkanen goes to Warriors for a reasonable price because trading away #8 pick and not taking a swing with any of those wing prospects will look awful.

[BacktoBasics]

The way he's been playing in Utah, Lauri is a legitimate all-star and a perfect fit next to Wemby.
Our 7 FRPs before Wemby and Castle wouldn't get us Lauri in a trade.



Good luck getting an all-star with two FRPs.



Noone is trading down from top5 next year.



The thing is that we don't know what his actual requests are.
Media people are there just to push narratives and agendas from each side.
Until the trade is made, we won't know if the asking price is too high.

I'm not going to lie, I'll lose my shit if Markkanen goes to Warriors for a reasonable price because trading away #8 pick and not taking a swing with any of those wing prospects will look awful.

He hasn’t impacted winning anywhere. Gives me tank commander vibes. 4 1sts for a 3rd option is a lot.

[John B]

The way he's been playing in Utah, Lauri is a legitimate all-star and a perfect fit next to Wemby.
Our 7 FRPs before Wemby and Castle wouldn't get us Lauri in a trade.



Good luck getting an all-star with two FRPs.



Noone is trading down from top5 next year.



The thing is that we don't know what his actual requests are.
Media people are there just to push narratives and agendas from each side.
Until the trade is made, we won't know if the asking price is too high.

I'm not going to lie, I'll lose my shit if Markkanen goes to Warriors for a reasonable price because trading away #8 pick and not taking a swing with any of those wing prospects will look awful.

Collecting FRP’s to trade for an All-Star, better than anyone available at #8. It’s the perfect next step after the CP3 and Barnes acquisitions. We’ll know come August 6th. The ball’s on Ainge now.

[LeBowen]

He hasn’t impacted winning anywhere. Gives me tank commander vibes. 4 1sts for a 3rd option is a lot.

I love how a lot of people in here have the confidence to make such statements when it's obvious that you didn't even bother to check some basic stats.
In his two years there, Utah is at .44 when Markkanen plays and .32 without him. He ruined both of their tank attempts and they had to shut him down in both seasons.

Saying someone gives you vibes just makes your take look unserious.
And saying he'd be a third option when Devin hasn't even broken the 20ppg mark makes it even worse.


Collecting FRP’s to trade for an All-Star, better than anyone available at #8. It’s the perfect next step after the CP3 and Barnes acquisitions. We’ll know come August 6th. The ball’s on Ainge now.

Agreed that it's better than anyone available at #8...if we actually make the next trade. As you said, we have to wait.
But if we traded away a #8 pick just because they panicked after Salaun was picked, it's a really bad look. We have plenty of picks to trade and our wing rotation is still among the worst in the league.

[exstatic]

I love how a lot of people in here have the confidence to make such statements when it's obvious that you didn't even bother to check some basic stats.
In his two years there, Utah is at .44 when Markkanen plays and .32 without him. He ruined both of their tank attempts and they had to shut him down in both seasons.

Saying someone gives you vibes just makes your take look unserious.
And saying he'd be a third option when Devin hasn't even broken the 20ppg mark makes it even worse.



Agreed that it's better than anyone available at #8...if we actually make the next trade. As you said, we have to wait.
But if we traded away a #8 pick just because they panicked after Salaun was picked, it's a really bad look. We have plenty of picks to trade and our wing rotation is still among the worst in the league.

They shopped the pick before the draft, but got no takers at their price. They were on the clock and had a player they were ready to pick, not named Dillingham, then Minnesota called. There was no panic involved.

[rjv]

They shopped the pick before the draft, but got no takers at their price. They were on the clock and had a player they were ready to pick, not named Dillingham, then Minnesota called. There was no panic involved.

i guess some posters feel that if they repeat a false narrative often enough it will somehow become true.

[LeBowen]

They shopped the pick before the draft, but got no takers at their price. They were on the clock and had a player they were ready to pick, not named Dillingham, then Minnesota called. There was no panic involved.

They shopped it because the scouting department wasn't convinced by any wings that were still available.
If Williams or Buzelis develop into high-end starters, it will be seen as a big fuck up from PATFO because we have enough tradeable picks already.

Or those two fail and it turns out to be the right call.
But our talent evaluation hasn't been great as of late.

[TD 21]

Unloading any combination of 4 picks should be something you do if you’re one piece away or returning a legitimate all star. I feel like that much juice could be used more effectively for two pieces rather than one or to move up in next years draft. 4 picks for Traore seems way more interesting.

I get the positional/age difference factors, but you do realize that Traore, like virtually any non can't miss prospect, is unlikely to reach or exceed Markkanen's level, right?


I love how a lot of people in here have the confidence to make such statements when it's obvious that you didn't even bother to check some basic stats.
In his two years there, Utah is at .44 when Markkanen plays and .32 without him. He ruined both of their tank attempts and they had to shut him down in both seasons.

Saying someone gives you vibes just makes your take look unserious.
And saying he'd be a third option when Devin hasn't even broken the 20ppg mark makes it even worse.

Yeah, spouting record without context is just lazy; especially in an era where you can easily look up on/off splits too.

[LeBowen]

Yeah, spouting record without context is just lazy; especially in an era where you can easily look up on/off splits too.

Markkanen had highest BPM and VORP in both seasons with the Jazz.
3.8 and 3.6 BPM, 3.3 and 2.6 VORP.

Wemby had 5.2 BPM and 3.8 VORP this season.

Second highest, if we just look at regular rotation members?
Devin with 0 BPM and 1.1 VORP.
Tre had 0.9 VORP, others were all negatives or barely above 0.

Scott went in-depth about his usage some pages back, great post.
Lauri is basically a 7ft Klay.

[Mr. Body]

If Markkanen is so great why are only two teams going for him. You'd think he'd be perfect for OKC.

[exstatic]

i guess some posters feel that if they repeat a false narrative often enough it will somehow become true.

I don’t like what someone is saying and it doesn’t fit my worldview or narrative, so I’ll say it false.

[Mr. Body]

They shopped it because the scouting department wasn't convinced by any wings that were still available.
If Williams or Buzelis develop into high-end starters, it will be seen as a big fuck up from PATFO because we have enough tradeable picks already.

Or those two fail and it turns out to be the right call.
But our talent evaluation hasn't been great as of late.

Our picks have been more than fine, you're just expecting late picks and second rounders to be great for some reason.

Anyway, if Williams or Buzelis become more than rotation laureates I'll eat my hat. Legit see Cody as best case Keita Bates-Diop and Buzelis reminds me of Cody Zeller.

[exstatic]

If Markkanen is so great why are only two teams going for him. You'd think he'd be perfect for OKC.

OKC is like one or two years from the second apron, which thankfully, seems to be doing its job.

I think that teams are enjoying Ainge’s discomfort, and aren’t inclined to end it. Plus, there’s the whole second apron thing looming for many teams that might want him, he’s criminally underpaid, but that will change soon.

[LeBowen]

Kings wanted him, not enough assets.
Heat wants him, not enough assets.
Others didn't even bother because very few contending teams need a PF, have 3 FRPs to trade and would be able to give him a max deal next season.

[Joseph Kony]

If Markkanen is so great why are only two teams going for him. You'd think he'd be perfect for OKC.
Are you really that stupid?

[rankingtear]

If Markkanen is so great why are only two teams going for him. You'd think he'd be perfect for OKC.

OKC runs a very different system coupled with the second apron.

[cd98]

If Markkanen is so great why are only two teams going for him. You'd think he'd be perfect for OKC.

My guess is that they got Hartenstein to start at center with the idea that he adds physicality and defense. Markkanen wouldn't play center. And if Hartenstein starts at center, my guess is Chet will play power forward and so Markkanen and Chet would be competing for minutes except in those minimal minutes where Chet will play center. I think it would be a log jam for them at a high price. That's my guess why they aren't active in the Markkanen discussions.

[objective]

Jazz were 3-14 iirc with Markkanen to end the season after they traded Fontecchio away. Maybe he was the key to wins? 3-14 isn't so great

More than that

What exactly makes Lauri such an alleged perfect fit? He shoots, yes. Has finished strong at the rim last year certainly.

But he doesn't really pass at all, and in an ideal Wemby system, wouldn't every player need to be capable of passing and making plays for their teammates?

He doesn't seem to be a credible shot blocker, his block % was lower last year than just about everyone 6-8 or taller on the Spurs, including Sochan and Mamu.

He scores as the #1 option and has okay rebounding numbers.

When he wasn't the first option, nobody was desperate to sign him. When his usage was less than 25%, he was just a nice piece to force into restricted free agency for the Bulls and to be thrown into a trade by the Cavs.

If he doesn't get the same shot volume, maybe he's not so great

[Mr. Body]

Jazz were 3-14 iirc with Markkanen to end the season after they traded Fontecchio away. Maybe he was the key to wins? 3-14 isn't so great

More than that

What exactly makes Lauri such an alleged perfect fit? He shoots, yes. Has finished strong at the rim last year certainly.

But he doesn't really pass at all, and in an ideal Wemby system, wouldn't every player need to be capable of passing and making plays for their teammates?

He doesn't seem to be a credible shot blocker, his block % was lower last year than just about everyone 6-8 or taller on the Spurs, including Sochan and Mamu.

He scores as the #1 option and has okay rebounding numbers.

When he wasn't the first option, nobody was desperate to sign him. When his usage was less than 25%, he was just a nice piece to force into restricted free agency for the Bulls and to be thrown into a trade by the Cavs.

If he doesn't get the same shot volume, maybe he's not so great

This is it. He's a play finisher but not a circulator or creator. He's constantly discussed as a seven footer but he doesn't play like one. He's a pretty good rebounder boy doesn't block shots, isn't a lane deterrent, can't guard beefy players any better than anyone else.

He's a player teams would probably like, but he's getting priced like a big star.

[scott]

He hasn’t impacted winning anywhere. Gives me tank commander vibes. 4 1sts for a 3rd option is a lot.

Guys who also haven't impacted winning: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell.

[scott]

Our picks have been more than fine, you're just expecting late picks and second rounders to be great for some reason.

Anyway, if Williams or Buzelis become more than rotation laureates I'll eat my hat. Legit see Cody as best case Keita Bates-Diop and Buzelis reminds me of Cody Zeller.

You also think Lauri Markkanen is Gabe Vincent, so maybe its your evaluation skills that are the issue?

[John B]

They shopped it because the scouting department wasn't convinced by any wings that were still available.
If Williams or Buzelis develop into high-end starters, it will be seen as a big fuck up from PATFO because we have enough tradeable picks already.

Or those two fail and it turns out to be the right call.
But our talent evaluation hasn't been great as of late.

This part I agree. Primo, Samanic, Weiskamp all over-achieved at the Combine but lacked the character. Branham seems nonchalant and occasionally needs prodding but until when?, Wesley/Sochan have motors but can’t shoot, Lonnie good character and athletic but low bball IQ. And PATFO seemed to draft position instead of BPA. Haliburton, Sengun, Jalen Johnson all available. Of course we would’ve not gotten Wemby, but they didn’t know that at that time.

Castle is a great pick, big defensive who’s probably the best POA defender
#8 Buzelis or especially Williams could be high-ceiling prospects at Wing
#35 Furphy send a nice pick 6’9 who can score. Nunez would be great if he can learn from CP3 now not when he’s gone.

Again I trust PATFO has something cooking, coz if they miss out. Yup lately I haven’t been impressed. Because Thunder, Rockets seem doing a better job rebuilding if not for Wemby. Take away Wemby, Spurs will have the worst future.

[cd98]

Guys who also haven't impacted winning: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell.

Yes but those two haven’t been in the league that long. We’d all like him on the team, but not for 3 firsts and Vassel.

[scott]

Great breakdown of some of our recent picks, John B.

At some point, it is important for the team to just be honest where we are from a scouting and talent evaluation standpoint so they can adjust their team building philosophy around their strengths and weaknesses.

Right now, here are what I think are our front office's strengths:

Asset accumulation - Wright and co have proven to be amongst the tops in the league and finding small advantages and exploiting them to find valuable assets for relatively cheap
Role Player acquisition - Paul, Barnes, Osman, Josh Richardson, Champagnie, Bassey, Mamu... these are all moves of varying prestige but all yielded players that are useful in various roles. And yes, I believe Bassey and Mamu are useful. These are end of bench guys that are actually capable and maybe even deserving of larger roles. They may not turn into premier rotation players, but they were free rolls of the dice and the FO has proven to be good at finding these kind of deals. CP3 is a below MLE level contract that add a lot of value to the team long term, maybe more than even in wins while he is here. Barnes upgrades our wing depth, which was desperately needed. I think we do well here.
Top end talent evaluation. This one I don't give them *too* much credit for, since Wemby is a no-brainer and Castle likely is one as well. At least we don't get cute at the top of the draft and fuck it up, and some teams do!


Weaknesses::

Draft scouting and talent evaluation. John B had a great list above. We just aren't the scouting masters we used to be. That doesn't mean everyone should be fired, but we just need to acknowledge this.
FA attraction. This isn't so much the FO's fault, but it is a weakness of our team building ability that needs to be acknowledged.


With these things in mind, it would leave me to believe that just relying on building through the draft alone, or thinking we'll build via FA, may not be the best strategies. Where we are strong is accumulating assets and then working good returns on trades. What does that suggest to me? That we should continue accumulating assets and then USE THEM IN TRADES to build out our team. Four draft picks for a player seems like a lot, until you remember that your draft picks usually turn into Josh Primo, Jeremy Sochan, Blake Wesley and Malaki Branham. That's two lotto picks and two late picks. I am driving those guys to the airport myself to trade them for Lauri, but when we think of those players in terms of nameless, faceless draft picks with unknown potential... we start to get antsy...

That's because humans overvalue the unknown. The expected value of a $2 Powerball ticket, excluding Jackpots, is $0.32 (source: https://www.statisticshowto.com/powerball-expected-value/), meaning that you can expect to get back $0.32 for every Powerball ticket you buy. If you buy a ticket and I offer you $1 for it, you'd say no because of the potential upside even though in the long run you'd be better off taking the $1. This is just human nature... yeah, we know we'll probably get less back than we put in... but WE MIGHT WIN BIG! The same general concept applies to draft picks, even though the odds of any draft pick outside of a top, no-brainer pick rising to the level of someone like Lauri is extremely low... we are still drawn by the remote possibility that one of those picks might be the next Giannis or Kawhi or Joker or Ginobili.

But we already have our superstar, give me the known quantity to go with him.

[scott]

Yes but those two haven’t been in the league that long. We’d all like him on the team, but not for 3 firsts and Vassel.

I also would not give up 3 first and Vassell (and have said as much), but that's not the point. The point is that "Lauri has never impacted winning" without context isn't very meaningful analysis.

If we didn't have Wemby and were still looking for our star but were constantly finishing with the 10th pick in large part because of Vassell, it would probably be time to move Vassell for a huge haul while we could, but we wouldn't be moved by someone pointing out that Vassell has never impacted winning so thus doesn't have any value.

[cd98]

I also would not give up 3 first and Vassell (and have said as much), but that's not the point. The point is that "Lauri has never impacted winning" without context isn't very meaningful analysis.

If we didn't have Wemby and were still looking for our star but were constantly finishing with the 10th pick in large part because of Vassell, it would probably be time to move Vassell for a huge haul while we could, but we wouldn't be moved by someone pointing out that Vassell has never impacted winning so thus doesn't have any value.

Hey, I tend to agree that a top dog will carry a team to a winning record (see Luka). But 2nd and 3rd tier stars need to be on good rosters to impact winning at a high level. Lauri has never been on that type of team. He's clearly not a top dog. I'm not sure he is the 2nd best player on a championship team, but I do think he can be the third best player on a championship team. I don't know if Vassell is a 2nd or 3rd best player on a championship team, but he plays a position of need, has the tools to be a good defender, and can be a secondary playmaker, so I'd roll with him over Markannan if it ever came down to it.

[Joseph Kony]

the whole "never impacted winning" thing is a retarded argument. Porzingis never impacted winning either and now he's an NBA champion. before Jrue Holiday got traded to Milwaukee he didn't impact winning either. now he's a 2 time champ.

"impacting winning" is largely a component of circumstance. hard to impact winning when you play for trash teams/organizations that dont prioritize putting a winning product on the floor

[DAF86]

This is it. He's a play finisher but not a circulator or creator. He's constantly discussed as a seven footer but he doesn't play like one. He's a pretty good rebounder boy doesn't block shots, isn't a lane deterrent, can't guard beefy players any better than anyone else.

He's a player teams would probably like, but he's getting priced like a big star.

He's actually one of the most elite "circulators" in the entire league. Everytime the ball gets to him, he either shoots it, drives it or passes it. The ball doesn't stick in his hands. That's why he's seemingly a great fit on every possible team. He doesn't need to have the ball in his hands to give you 20+.

[Dejounte]

What the fuck are the spurs cooking

[scott]

Hey, I tend to agree that a top dog will carry a team to a winning record (see Luka). But 2nd and 3rd tier stars need to be on good rosters to impact winning at a high level. Lauri has never been on that type of team. He's clearly not a top dog. I'm not sure he is the 2nd best player on a championship team, but I do think he can be the third best player on a championship team. I don't know if Vassell is a 2nd or 3rd best player on a championship team, but he plays a position of need, has the tools to be a good defender, and can be a secondary playmaker, so I'd roll with him over Markannan if it ever came down to it.

Yeah, I don't want to give up Devin at all. To me the point is to have Wemby + Lauri + Devin as the big 3. Are Lauri and Devin good enough? It's to be seen, but it's also to be seen if Wemby is a championship winning top dog (we believe he is, but a lot of guys seem that way but until they win it, they aren't it).

If it came down to it, I might do Lauri for Devin straight up, but I can see the arguments both ways. I posted earlier, that if Devin is involved I could see a good argument that Utah would have to send Lauri + picks for Devin, not the other way around. Devin is younger, is under an affordable contract, and plays better defense. On the flip side, Lauri is much more effective as a scorer. My personal opinion is that they kind of equal out and that is why I might do a straight up swap, but I can see both ways for why each side would demand extras in a Lauri for Devin swap.

With all that said, I don't want to give up Devin. I'm trying to build our big 3 and have Castle plus ATL25 and SA25 as our core. That's why my package ideals all keep Devin and the 25 picks.

[Mr. Body]

He's actually one of the most elite "circulators" in the entire league. Everytime the ball gets to him, he either shoots it, drives it or passes it. The ball doesn't stick in his hands. That's why he's seemingly a great fit on every possible team. He doesn't need to have the ball in his hands to give you 20+.

No one with his anemic assist numbers is circulating the ball.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

What are you basing Lauri wanting to transition to the Bay Area and identify as Warrior on?

That's why I say this is very unlikely - 5% chance. You never know. He may lose ambition in basketball and enjoy Bay area life. Very unlikely but....

[BacktoBasics]

I get the positional/age difference factors, but you do realize that Traore, like virtually any non can't miss prospect, is unlikely to reach or exceed Markkanen's level, right?



Yeah, spouting record without context is just lazy; especially in an era where you can easily look up on/off splits too.

I don’t really consider Lauri at a level. He hasn’t accomplished anything. He’s put up numbers on a losing team. Someone has to.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

Collecting FRP’s to trade for an All-Star, better than anyone available at #8. It’s the perfect next step after the CP3 and Barnes acquisitions. We’ll know come August 6th. The ball’s on Ainge now.

The ball is actually in Lauri's hands. If he decides to win multiple titles and extend with Spurs only, then Warriors will reduce their offer to 1 or 2 low FRPs for a one-year rental. Then Spurs's offer of 3 low FRPs will be easily enough to get lauri.

[BacktoBasics]

the whole "never impacted winning" thing is a retarded argument. Porzingis never impacted winning either and now he's an NBA champion. before Jrue Holiday got traded to Milwaukee he didn't impact winning either. now he's a 2 time champ.

"impacting winning" is largely a component of circumstance. hard to impact winning when you play for trash teams/organizations that dont prioritize putting a winning product on the floor
Yeah, he didn’t impact winning until he became the 4th or 5th option.

This is why you don’t unload 4 pics for a player like that.

But I do think your point has merit in the big picture.

[BacktoBasics]

Guys who also haven't impacted winning: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell.

Wemby is different for obvious reasons. Vassell is correct. He’s a 3rd option and possibly a 2nd on a hot night. You don’t unload 4 firsts for Vassell.

I believe we’d take 4 firsts in a heartbeat for Vassell and not think twice.

[DAF86]

No one with his anemic assist numbers is circulating the ball.

That's a very ignorant take, tbh. Having high assists totals doesn't necesarilly mean you "circulate" the ball, in fact, quite the opposite. Some of the biggest ball hogs in NBA history have high assists numbers (Iverson, Westbrook, Harden, etc.).

In contrast, many elite circulators have never had high assists totals, because they keep the ball moving. They don't suck the air out of the ball to pass it at the last second and get an assist. Klay Thompson never averaged more than 3 assists in a season, is he not a "circulator"?

[TD 21]

I don’t really consider Lauri at a level. He hasn’t accomplished anything. He’s put up numbers on a losing team. Someone has to.

You're clearly just basing it off of counting stats/record without context.

In an average rank of 8 "catch-all" metrics, Markkanen ranked 19th last season.

In EPM, considered one of the best publicly available metrics by stat geeks and supposedly many in the league, he ranked 28th (12th offensively). Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) (dunksandthrees.com) (https://dunksandthrees.com/epm)

[Knoxxx]

12 days to Aug 6…

[Spurs Homer]

75 pages - is this Kunt a spur yet?

[Frenchfred]

The Spurs are not looking to get better this year, they are looking for the 2025 draft with their own pick and Atlanta. This year will be used to continue developing Wemby’s game, teach Castle how to run point with CP3 and evaluate more Sochan. At the end of next year, the Spurs will have nice expiring contracts in Barnes and Collins to go after a star. They will decide if they keep Sochan, Blake and Wesley.

[timtonymanu]

the whole "never impacted winning" thing is a retarded argument. Porzingis never impacted winning either and now he's an NBA champion. before Jrue Holiday got traded to Milwaukee he didn't impact winning either. now he's a 2 time champ.

"impacting winning" is largely a component of circumstance. hard to impact winning when you play for trash teams/organizations that dont prioritize putting a winning product on the floor

Hell we have CP0 who’s a hall of famer but still hasn’t won a championship and is known for choking at times. But Body has zero peep on that one.

[John B]

That's a very ignorant take, tbh. Having high assists totals doesn't necesarilly mean you "circulate" the ball, in fact, quite the opposite. Some of the biggest ball hogs in NBA history have high assists numbers (Iverson, Westbrook, Harden, etc.).

In contrast, many elite circulators have never had high assists totals, because they keep the ball moving. They don't suck the air out of the ball to pass it at the last second and get an assist. Klay Thompson never averaged more than 3 assists in a season, is he not a "circulator"?

Agree. Tony never has high assists but he’s very good initiating the open, suck up defenders, pass to a connector who passes to the better shot etc. This is elementary to Spurs fans.

[tonight...you]

Agree. Tony never has high assists but he’s very good initiating the open, suck up defenders, pass to a connector who passes to the better shot etc. This is elementary to Spurs fans.
And it was confusing to the defenses because they had no choice, but to get into uncomfortable situations because Tony was ready to strike at the 1st go, but also ready to move the D into a 2nd movement which would scramble everything up.

[scott]

Would much rather the most efficient scorer in the league take his opportunities to shoot, than to try and rack up assists, tbh.

[poopbox]

What the fuck are the spurs cooking

38 to 42 wins...if Chris is relatively healthy, stays on the team all year, and drags them to it.

[poopbox]

Yeah, I don't want to give up Devin at all. To me the point is to have Wemby + Lauri + Devin as the big 3. Are Lauri and Devin good enough? It's to be seen, but it's also to be seen if Wemby is a championship winning top dog (we believe he is, but a lot of guys seem that way but until they win it, they aren't it).

If it came down to it, I might do Lauri for Devin straight up, but I can see the arguments both ways. I posted earlier, that if Devin is involved I could see a good argument that Utah would have to send Lauri + picks for Devin, not the other way around. Devin is younger, is under an affordable contract, and plays better defense. On the flip side, Lauri is much more effective as a scorer. My personal opinion is that they kind of equal out and that is why I might do a straight up swap, but I can see both ways for why each side would demand extras in a Lauri for Devin swap.

With all that said, I don't want to give up Devin. I'm trying to build our big 3 and have Castle plus ATL25 and SA25 as our core. That's why my package ideals all keep Devin and the 25 picks.

No way you do Lauri for Devin straight up. Devin has a declining contract that in 3 years where he should be better than what he is now, won't even take up 10 or maybe even 9% of the salary cap, where as Laura is going to take up one of your max slots, and it's debatable on if he is a max player or not. I would hope this front office is at least smart enough to understand how many works...although they have surprised me before not understanding simple concepts, like not throwing the number 8 pick away for something down the road that could be absolutely nothing.

[exstatic]

No one with his anemic assist numbers is circulating the ball.

You can be an elite circulator without high assist numbers. Hockey assists aren’t tracked.

[Knoxxx]

the whole "never impacted winning" thing is a retarded argument. Porzingis never impacted winning either and now he's an NBA champion. before Jrue Holiday got traded to Milwaukee he didn't impact winning either. now he's a 2 time champ.

"impacting winning" is largely a component of circumstance. hard to impact winning when you play for trash teams/organizations that dont prioritize putting a winning product on the floor

Its almost as bad as the dreaded “tbh”

[rankingtear]

It looks like the ATL25 pick is the dealbreaker based on rumors.

[scott]

It looks like the ATL25 pick is the dealbreaker based on rumors.

What are you hearing?

[John B]

It looks like the ATL25 pick is the dealbreaker based on rumors.

No way I’d give that up. Ainge can have Markkanen for another year, he’s signing here once he’s free.

[scott]

Would make sense that the Jazz would ask for ATL25, but it's not like anyone else has a potential lotto 25 pick on offer either, so I wouldn't think that alone would kill the Spurs chances. The Spurs should hold firm at saying no to ATL25, because there is no comparable pick on offer from anywhere. SA26 w the ATL swap attached is the most valuable pick that they could reasonably get (I'd offer this up, not sure if PATFO would).

[rankingtear]

What are you hearing?

TJones UTA best source of info is saying we won't give the ATL25 in a million years.

[scott]

TJones UTA best source of info is saying we won't give the ATL25 in a million years.

1816632339436568947

Found it. He later said the he deleted it because he always deletes tweets when he's done with a conversation (which is weird and self important, but whatever).

It's kind of interesting... ATL25 on its own probably will not yield a player as good as Markkanen, so from my POV it's not that ATL25 is too high of a price, but rather that there is simply no reason for the Spurs to go there. No one who is in the running for Lauri can offer a projected 25 lotto pick (except for us), so there is no need to up the ante to that level.

In the end, this doesn't sound like it's an actual deal breaker, but Jones responding to a fan suggestion (and Jones is right, for the reasons I mentioned)

[SpursBills]

We can argue back and forth on how much to give up for Lauri, and that argument probably depends on a ton of factors, like how much time you think it'll take for Wemby to become a top 1-3 guy, how quickly you think Castle can develop, whether a Wemby-Lauri-Vassell+ core beats an SGA-JDub-Chet+ core over the next 5 years, whether the Spurs are now truly mediocre drafters or whether their hand was forced the last couple years due to trying to take big swings on risky prospects, if you believe in Wemby's longevity over 15 years, how willing you are to be terrible again for another year, whether Lauri is actually injury-prone or whether he was just held out due to a tanking Jazz team the last couple years, etc. etc.

However, the notion that Lauri is some "empty calories" role player doesn't seem right to me

Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 19 other players with TS > 62%, USG > 24 (Lauri hovers around 63-64% at 25-26% USG over the last 2 seasons)
1. Giannis x 4
2. Jimmy Butler x 2
3. Curry x 6
4. AD x 2
5. KD x 7
6. Embiid
7. SGA x 2
8. Harden
9. Lebron x 3
10. Jokic x 4
11. Zach Lavine
12. Kawhi
13. Dame
14. Lowry
15. Porzingis
16. Isaiah Thomas
17. KAT x 3
18. Zion
19. Bojan Bogdanovic

Most of the guys on this list are the primary drivers of efficient offenses. I would argue that aside from Bogdanovic and Lavine, having any one of these guys as one of your top 2 offensive options is going to give you a pretty good chance of having an above average to great offense. In terms of others' concerns:

1. He hasn't won and this makes him a losing player - this has been covered pretty extensively as the context of his teams have played a pretty big role. His teams are better when he is on the court compared to when he is off the court, which is enough for me, and suggests that a change in team context and/or fit may significantly impact his ability to win. See: Porzingis, Derrick White, Devin Booker

2. He can't pass because he has low assists - Lauri's role is a hyper-efficient play finisher, and his assist numbers track with some other high level efficient play-finishers such as Klay, Dirk, and Amare Stoudemire. While his AST:TO leaves something to be desired, it has still been at least over 1 the last couple of years which to me is acceptable for a guy in his role. Watching him play he does not seem to be a black hole who dribbles the air out of the ball and certainly not a ball stopper.

3. His defense sucks - true, it's not great. But at the same time, it's not Trae Young bad, and his size gives him some leeway to become a good defender. As has been stated multiple times, the strength of a playoff defense is determined by its weakest defender and Lauri has the size and wing-ish speed to not get completely torched or bullied with help. We've seen allegedly poor defenders improve significantly in a team context - Karl Anthony Towns is a prime example of this. In fact, the Lauri-Wemby combo may end up resembling something like a supercharged version of a KAT-Gobert front court defensively, which is a front court that you can still build a championship defense around.

I think my primary concern around Lauri (a very small one compared to his advantages he brings), comes from roster construction and his ability to maintain his efficiency given a defensively-oriented roster. Hardy's playing a lot of 5-out lineups with +shooting at all four other positions. He's featured Olynyk and Collins at center prominently and had Walker Kessler in a reduced role due to his inability to shoot. I'm not even going to get into Sochan's shooting struggles, but even a guy like Castle over the course of Lauri's next contract probably isn't going to provide the requisite shooting to match what Utah was playing. And if Sochan's shooting is a lost cause and you're not playing him, you probably have to still find a good wing defender who's a plus shooter to fill his spot. And since Lauri isn't exactly a playmaker, that guy may have to have some passing chops/ball-moving ability to play in a Wemby-centric motion offense. If you make that guy just a mediocre or inconsistent shooter, and you pair him with Castle, will Lauri be able to reproduce similar efficiency at similar usage? We saw what happened in Cleveland with poor spacing - Lauri's a way better player now than he was back then, but team context has to be taken into account as well.

Overall, it comes down to price. He's a no-brainer for keldon and 3-4 mediocre first rounders to me, but when you start getting into prime draft capital, the above are certainly considerations to take into account.

[exstatic]

It looks like the ATL25 pick is the dealbreaker based on rumors.

Some yahoo on Twitter asks his opinion on whether the pick might be included, and suddenly it’s THE DEAL BREAKER?

[z0sa]

That's why I say this is very unlikely - 5% chance. You never know. He may lose ambition in basketball and enjoy Bay area life. Very unlikely but....

While he is super rich and will be way more richer, things like taxes and COL may be a slightly higher factor than normal since he hasn't been a max player until the last couple of seasons. I think he'd want to maximize his earnings at this stage, tbh. It's not the main reason or anything he wouldn't go but it could be a factor.

[KobesAchilles]

I find Spurstalk pretty funny sometimes.

Posters here: Lauri wouldn’t make us a winner with our current team.

Same fucking posters: Sochan, Vassell, and Castle are the future of the Spurs and will help us win championships

Again same posters: we need to draft more talent bc our current talent isn’t good enough to win the championship. We can’t throw away our future picks for an all star bc we don’t have enough talent on the team.

Same posters again : Castle will be all world defense and be an amazing shooter. He is our second star.

Same posters again again again: We need our second star in this team and the only way to get it is through the draft. So we gotta give Brian Wrong more opportunities to get the second star

Same posters: how can you say you want the Spurs to tank to get a second star in 2025?? We have too much talent to be a bad team next year. But not enough talent where it makes sense to add an all star player who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to get 20 a game and would spread the floor for our team full of players who can’t shoot so that Wemby isn’t triple teamed.

[timtonymanu]

^ we all know which retard you're talking about. :lol

[ismael-robert]

^ we all know which retard you're talking about. :lol

He summed up whole forum

[Arguendo]

the whole "never impacted winning" thing is a retarded argument.
Yeah, it’s a lazy & flawed way to look at it.
Case & point, Wemby was easily a Top5 defender from day 1, but Spurs were still an awful defensive team (bottom 3 for first 3/4 of season), therefore Wemby didn’t impact the defense? That’s absurb

Team sport, the team matters, the structure matters, & experience/age matters

[bluebellmaniac]

Too many pages to sort through.

Lauri is an UFA after this season isn't he?

If UTAH is not giving him what he wants (max deal / Whataburger /whatever), just just say he's not going to sign with who he's traded to. Just wait it out (that's the gamble part in hoping he's not injured. Or say that to narrow the teams you are willing to sign with.

[heyheymymy]

Lauri naysayers are crazy. The fit is unbelievable and Markkanen to SA would be the competitive cherry on top of this roster. He is so complimentary to what the Spurs are already running imho.

Obviously the ask makes all the difference. Agree that at least Vassell and ATL25 are deal breakers for SA.

Was hoping UTA would take a more picks-based offer with 4 FRPs and 4 2RPs or something + ballast. It's a unique situation where the recipient team won't need much player premium back because they appear to need to tank to protect and enrich their pick. So the Keldon's and Zach's typically unwanted would in this case be acceptable. But hearing UTA won't take Keldon lol. Asking for Dev when they know the Spurs won't do that. Jazz FO is sabotaging negotiations at this point.

Just restating the common points here but wanting to be official Lauri gang and go on record. Would be a total heist of a get with the other recent moves and would absolutely surge hype levels going into the season.

[8FOR!3]

I find Spurstalk pretty funny sometimes.

Posters here: Lauri wouldn’t make us a winner with our current team.

Same fucking posters: Sochan, Vassell, and Castle are the future of the Spurs and will help us win championships

Again same posters: we need to draft more talent bc our current talent isn’t good enough to win the championship. We can’t throw away our future picks for an all star bc we don’t have enough talent on the team.

Same posters again : Castle will be all world defense and be an amazing shooter. He is our second star.

Same posters again again again: We need our second star in this team and the only way to get it is through the draft. So we gotta give Brian Wrong more opportunities to get the second star

Same posters: how can you say you want the Spurs to tank to get a second star in 2025?? We have too much talent to be a bad team next year. But not enough talent where it makes sense to add an all star player who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to get 20 a game and would spread the floor for our team full of players who can’t shoot so that Wemby isn’t triple teamed.

Sochan does a lot of things that you don't get from a lot of NBA players so he's a great guy to have on the team. And he's 21 years old so you really don't know what his upside is. Vassell is probably a 3rd or 4th star on a championship team. So the idea of us needing a second one isn't farfetched.

Castle on the other hand is 19 years old. If he becomes SGA he is absolutely the second star. But right now we don't know how he's going to pan out even if he is really good. The thing is I don't think Lauri is a second star on a championship team either. So adding him would make us a playoff contender for sure but are we competing for championships with him? Probably not, obviously unless Castle becomes a superstar in the next 2-3 years.

[scott]

Lauri naysayers are crazy. The fit is unbelievable and Markkanen to SA would be the competitive cherry on top of this roster. He is so complimentary to what the Spurs are already running imho.

Obviously the ask makes all the difference. Agree that at least Vassell and ATL25 are deal breakers for SA.

Was hoping UTA would take a more picks-based offer with 4 FRPs and 4 2RPs or something + ballast. It's a unique situation where the recipient team won't need much player premium back because they appear to need to tank to protect and enrich their pick. So the Keldon's and Zach's typically unwanted would in this case be acceptable. But hearing UTA won't take Keldon lol. Asking for Dev when they know the Spurs won't do that. Jazz FO is sabotaging negotiations at this point.

Just restating the common points here but wanting to be official Lauri gang and go on record. Would be a total heist of a get with the other recent moves and would absolutely surge hype levels going into the season.

This of course is purely speculation, but it's possible Lauri and the Jazz have some kind of gentlemen's agreement where the team hears Lauri's request to not be part of a tank again, and the Jazz have told him they'll "try their best" to trade him. From Lauri's POV, he's good with that and is not demanding a trade, and has told the Jazz that if they can't trade him then he'll resign and go with the program. In that instance, the Jazz now are committed to only accept insane offers no team will ever agree to (sabotaging negotiations) because they're goal is to keep Lauri and find a way to tank.

[baseline bum]

Too many pages to sort through.

Lauri is an UFA after this season isn't he?

If UTAH is not giving him what he wants (max deal / Whataburger /whatever), just just say he's not going to sign with who he's traded to. Just wait it out (that's the gamble part in hoping he's not injured. Or say that to narrow the teams you are willing to sign with.

Why would Markannen do that and give up a fifth year and higher raises?

[scott]

Why would Markannen do that and give up a fifth year and higher raises?

If by some chance Lauri doesn't get traded and decides to hit UFA, it doesn't necessarily mean that he'll give up the 5th year and higher raises. Sign and trade is always an option as well.

Edit: I don't think this will happen, just saying it's possible.

[TrainOfThought5]

Sochan does a lot of things that you don't get from a lot of NBA players so he's a great guy to have on the team. And he's 21 years old so you really don't know what his upside is. Vassell is probably a 3rd or 4th star on a championship team. So the idea of us needing a second one isn't farfetched.

Castle on the other hand is 19 years old. If he becomes SGA he is absolutely the second star. But right now we don't know how he's going to pan out even if he is really good. The thing is I don't think Lauri is a second star on a championship team either. So adding him would make us a playoff contender for sure but are we competing for championships with him? Probably not, obviously unless Castle becomes a superstar in the next 2-3 years.

I agree overall but i think that Wemby plus two legit 3rd options (Vassell and Lauri) would launch us into contention, assuming that the rest of the roster is well balanced and defensively complementary.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Why would Markannen do that and give up a fifth year and higher raises?

Because he will likely have an opt out after his 2nd season of a new contract anyway so that he can get 35% of the cap as a 10 year player instead of 30% that he is eligible for now.

[MultiTroll]

If by some chance Lauri doesn't get traded and decides to hit UFA, it doesn't necessarily mean that he'll give up the 5th year and higher raises. Sign and trade is always an option as well.

Edit: I don't think this will happen, just saying it's possible.
Other then colluding phaggot Durbetta, how many NBA players and esp All Star caliber have played out their contracts so the team they then choose to go to will be so much the better?

If Markannen really wanted to be on a long term winner in his own prime, can you imagine how much it helps both the Spurs and himself to come here next year as an UFA?
Of course we'd still have salary offload problems with Keldon etc.

[Spurs Homer]

Is this kunt a spur yet?

fuck

[scott]

1816814611871510808

https://media.tenor.com/4mW4wpQspkYAAAAe/dune-stilgar.png

[scott]

Some Jazz fans saying that they think Lauri will renegotiate and extend on Aug 7, specifically to kill an trade rumors for this season. That makes sense, so Aug 7-10 probably becomes the key dates to watch.

[DPG21920]

1816814611871510808

https://media.tenor.com/4mW4wpQspkYAAAAe/dune-stilgar.png

This was obvious when they said GS needed a third first and SA already has them. If that’s true, theres no way to think GS could net a first by trading Wiggins. He may cost them draft captial to move or if they are lucky they get some 2nds or a crappy first.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

1816814611871510808

https://media.tenor.com/4mW4wpQspkYAAAAe/dune-stilgar.png
Aha! Lauri will be a spur then.

[DPG21920]

But what doesn’t make sense too much IMO is for UTA or SA is for UTA to want all 25’ picks. I dont think sa does it. Maybe CHI+CHA, but not ATL or Spurs 25.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

But what doesn’t make sense too much IMO is for UTA or SA is for UTA to want all 25’ picks. I dont think sa does it. Maybe CHI+CHA, but not ATL or Spurs 25.

Spurs 25 possible. Definitely none of the Hawks 25, 26 or 27.

With Lauri, Spurs will be a top 6 team in the west. So, Spurs 25 doesn't worth much.

[DPG21920]

Spurs 25 possible. Definitely none of the Hawks 25, 26 or 27.

With Lauri, Spurs will be a top 6 team in the west. So, Spurs 25 doesn't worth much.

Im not so certain this is true. Especially if it costs Devin to get him

[scott]

Spurs aren't giving up Devin. At least I hope not... Devin + Valuable Picks is a negative return.

[baseline bum]

If by some chance Lauri doesn't get traded and decides to hit UFA, it doesn't necessarily mean that he'll give up the 5th year and higher raises. Sign and trade is always an option as well.

Edit: I don't think this will happen, just saying it's possible.

Can't get the fifth year and higher raises on sign and trade deals any more.

[scott]

Can't get the fifth year and higher raises on sign and trade deals any more.

Did not know this - thanks for that.

Even more reason to believe what I've always believed: he'll either traded and then resigned before FA next year, or he'll get reneg and extended by Utah and then traded at the deadline or next offseason or just stay a Jazz player. I highly doubt he ever hits UFA.

[heyheymymy]

This of course is purely speculation, but it's possible Lauri and the Jazz have some kind of gentlemen's agreement where the team hears Lauri's request to not be part of a tank again, and the Jazz have told him they'll "try their best" to trade him. From Lauri's POV, he's good with that and is not demanding a trade, and has told the Jazz that if they can't trade him then he'll resign and go with the program. In that instance, the Jazz now are committed to only accept insane offers no team will ever agree to (sabotaging negotiations) because they're goal is to keep Lauri and find a way to tank.

I could totally see that as a way for both camps to save face. Lauri gets to play like he's too hot to even get a proper package for and Jazz get to play to the fanbase like they tried to reposition but teams were "lowballing"

So much of it hinges on Lauri and what he wants. I always play this game where I think every prize FA is dying to come to SA and break themselves before Coach Pop and sacrifice night life and ritzy cities to play Spurs basketball.

But maybe Markk loves Mormon chicks or hates Texas or loves SF or hates churros or something.

[heyheymymy]

I've got another theory that Mark to Spurs is actually SA playing out a game with zero interest barring a no brainer deal.

After getting roasted for trading the #8 for delayed gratification, SA ploys to act out a scenario where that future capital is used as a foundation to a potential offer at a brand name, premium FA. [edit: shit not FA, I meant trade target.]

The Spurs fanbase gets to immediately see the point of hoarding lots of future capital, as that treasure trove is barely enough to put SA at the top of offer packages in a high profile dog fight for Markkanen.

Now the fans can see right away how the trades for future picks can bring back someone like Markk and now the conversation isn't should we have dumped Dilly, it is who can we get with MIN 20131 and the rest of the assets?

Maybe SA actually wants Lauri too, if the price is right, which just lends further credibility to this ploy. But it's like a small demonstration, to show why they are hoarding picks. To be in a position to get an OG, Bridges, Markkanen caliber FA. [edit: not FA, I meant trade target here]

[CGD]

1816814611871510808

https://media.tenor.com/4mW4wpQspkYAAAAe/dune-stilgar.png

Is this guy reputable? Seems like he’s just saying the same stuff we already know. Zach Lowe was saying on his pod today that he’d be shocked if Lauri didn’t wait until Aug 7 to sign the extension to avoid the drama of being in trade rumors all year. That makes too much sense to me.

Bottoms line: It would be silly for any team to act before August 6th unless the Jazz come off their crazy demands.

[scott]

Is this guy reputable? Seems like he’s just saying the same stuff we already know. Zach Lowe was saying on his pod today that he’d be shocked if Lauri didn’t wait until Aug 7 to sign the extension to avoid the drama of being in trade rumors all year. That makes too much sense to me.

Bottoms line: It would be silly for any team to act before August 6th unless the Jazz come off their crazy demands.

I for sure definitely have no clue if this guy is credible, the comments to that tweet seem to think he's normally full of shit

I just saw a great opportunity to use a Stilgar meme :lol

[scott]

After interacting with Jazz fans on another forum, and hearing what Lowe and McMahon had to say about this situation... I have a new dream scenario.

Ainge overplays his hand, resigns Lauri to a max reneg and extend, finishes with 34 wins, gets the 11th pick, loses it to OKC, Lauri demands a trade next off-season anyway, and the Jazz get less than they could have right now.

This is is the fortune Danny Ainge deserve. The Spurs would be great with Lauri, but we'll also be fine without him.

[mudyez]

Bottom line:

If it's for the potential Malakis and Wesleys (mid or low 1st rounders) of the world you do it...but if the Hawks end up top4 and Utah has that pick, we immediately look foolish so thats a no go.

I'm happy to move on, if Ainge wants Dev or one or some of the good stuff (that said, the ATL stuff but to a leiser degree also DAL and MIN).

[JPB]

Can't get the fifth year and higher raises on sign and trade deals any more.

Never really understood why it was possible in the first place.

[JPB]

At 27, and after a couple of "empty" years already in Utah, I would imagine Lauri would want start to compete now and not waste the next 2-3 years of prime in an uncertain rebuilding.

SA's advantage is obviously Victor, but that only stands if Lauri specafically says he wants to come here. I personally believe he gets traded no matter what. Not sure how it could actually happen speciailly with the second apron looming, but as spurs fans, we gotta hope HOU or OKC somehow don't manage to land him.

A Chet/SGA/Lauri big 3 could be hard to match.

[CGD]

After interacting with Jazz fans on another forum, and hearing what Lowe and McMahon had to say about this situation... I have a new dream scenario.

Ainge overplays his hand, resigns Lauri to a max reneg and extend, finishes with 34 wins, gets the 11th pick, loses it to OKC, Lauri demands a trade next off-season anyway, and the Jazz get less than they could have right now.

This is is the fortune Danny Ainge deserve. The Spurs would be great with Lauri, but we'll also be fine without him.

This is the more likely scenario to happen honestly. That, and to keep Lauri’s value high, they give him run and become a play-in team next year. Not only would they miss out on the top of the 25 draft, but they’d have to CONVEY their 2025 pick to OKC if it falls out of the Top 10!

Utah losing leverage by the hour and it’s delicious.

[exstatic]

This is the more likely scenario to happen honestly. That, and to keep Lauri’s value high, they give him run and become a play-in team next year. Not only would they miss out on the top of the 25 draft, but they’d have to CONVEY their 2025 pick to OKC if it falls out of the Top 10!

Utah losing leverage by the hour and it’s delicious.

That’s not the end of it, either. If they save the 2025 pick, they have to tank AGAIN to save their 2026 pick, and the protections drop to 1-8. They basically have to throttle and sit Markannen in his year 27 and 28 seasons.

[Mr. Body]

My guess at this point is the Spurs don't cough up the dream package Ainge thought he would get and he goes back to Warriors. I wonder if his reputation quietly gets a hit here.

[exstatic]

My guess at this point is the Spurs don't cough up the dream package Ainge thought he would get and he goes back to Warriors. I wonder if his reputation quietly gets a hit here.

An average package we put together would be better than the Warriors package unless they take a sledge hammer to their next decade. Ainge would want their 27 29 and 31 picks, plus probably swaps in between. Steph has maybe 2-3 good years left, and they’d have no way to rebuild, all of that just for a first round playoff out.

[TD 21]

I just hope the Jazz don't cave to the media attempting to pressure them into handing him to the Warriors for pennies on the dollar because they're desperate for those frauds to be relevant again and seemingly don't understand that they won't sniff championship contention again anyway.

[poopbox]

I just hope the Jazz don't cave to the media attempting to pressure them into handing him to the Warriors for pennies on the dollar because they're desperate for those frauds to be relevant again and seemingly don't understand that they won't sniff championship contention again anyway.

Long term it would be best for the Spurs if Lauri went to GS because they wouldn't be good enough to compete in the future + they wouldn't have any way to make the team better after giving all their picks to Utah. One less team to worry about.

[Spurs Homer]

This kunt a spur yet?

gifted away the #8 pick...for dik

[LeBowen]

Long term it would be best for the Spurs if Lauri went to GS because they wouldn't be good enough to compete in the future + they wouldn't have any way to make the team better after giving all their picks to Utah. One less team to worry about.

I'd rather have Warriors and split those good players betweent them and remain a tier below us than have Jazz get all the good picks and become a OKC level threat.
Those players will be drafted, either way. It's better for us if they're spread around.

[poopbox]

I'd rather have Warriors and split those good players betweent them and remain a tier below us than have Jazz get all the good picks and become a OKC level threat.
Those players will be drafted, either way. It's better for us if they're spread around.

Ainge isn't near the talent evaluator that Presti is. Ainge entire front office reputations is built around one trade that he and he alone got the privilege to do for no other reason that he randomly had the players that a Russian billionaire wanted on a team that he bought on a whim. Well the 76ers did him a solid as well drafting Fultz and gift wrapping him Tatum.

I am perfectly fine with Danny Ainge having a lot of picks from anywhere in any draft at any time. He is not going to do anything with them.

[exstatic]

Ainge isn't near the talent evaluator that Presti is. Ainge entire front office reputations is built around one trade that he and he alone got the privilege to do for no other reason that he randomly had the players that a Russian billionaire wanted on a team that he bought on a whim. Well the 76ers did him a solid as well drafting Fultz and gift wrapping him Tatum.

I am perfectly fine with Danny Ainge having a lot of picks from anywhere in any draft at any time. He is not going to do anything with them.

He’s actually a good pick getter, overall, and it wasn’t just the Nets trade. The amount of picks he’ll wind up getting from the Mitchell and Gobert trade won’t be measurable by existing technology. Not so great at getting talent, though. If you need a fire sale, hire Ainge. If you need a team built, hire Brad Stevens.

[LeBowen]

I am perfectly fine with Danny Ainge having a lot of picks from anywhere in any draft at any time. He is not going to do anything with them.

At some point he'll have too many picks to fail. Iirc they're at 15 in the next 7 drafts.
He already owns the entire Cavs and TWolves future, adding Warriors to the list would be too much.
On top of probably getting two own top5 picks in the next two drafts.

It's not like Presti's record is stellar.
He just brute forced it with an overwhelming number of picks.

His only pick that's exceeding expectations ever since Reggie Jackson in 2012 is Jalen Williams.
Chet was a no-brainer, Giddey already got traded away and others were nothing special.

[scott]

He’s actually a good pick getter, overall, and it wasn’t just the Nets trade. The amount of picks he’ll wind up getting from the Mitchell and Gobert trade won’t be measurable by existing technology. Not so great at getting talent, though. If you need a fire sale, hire Ainge. If you need a team built, hire Brad Stevens.

It will all depend where those far out CLE and MIN picks turn out. Right now they are just delivering picks in the 20s, which doesn't do UTA any good. In that respect, if the Spurs wanted to acquire a second star next to Wemby (doesn't have to be Lauri), it might be in our best interest to trade our own short term (within the next 3-4 seasons) picks, as in theory whatever second star we get should push us into a solid playoff team and we'll just be turning over picks in the 20s as well.

[scott]

At some point he'll have too many picks to fail. Iirc they're at 15 in the next 7 drafts.
He already owns the entire Cavs and TWolves future, adding Warriors to the list would be too much.
On top of probably getting two own top5 picks in the next two drafts.

It's not like Presti's record is stellar.
He just brute forced it with an overwhelming number of picks.

His only pick that's exceeding expectations ever since Reggie Jackson in 2012 is Jalen Williams.
Chet was a no-brainer, Giddey already got traded away and others were nothing special.

100%. This is why I love the idea of Ainge playing hardball and ended up giving away his pick in a year he should tank, it will be ultimate LOL worthy. Presti has more misses than hits in the 11-14 range, so I'm not overly concerned about OKC getting another pick there.

[SpursBills]

Ainge isn't near the talent evaluator that Presti is. Ainge entire front office reputations is built around one trade that he and he alone got the privilege to do for no other reason that he randomly had the players that a Russian billionaire wanted on a team that he bought on a whim. Well the 76ers did him a solid as well drafting Fultz and gift wrapping him Tatum.

I am perfectly fine with Danny Ainge having a lot of picks from anywhere in any draft at any time. He is not going to do anything with them.

His track record has been spotty since, but both the Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum picks were elite decisions that went against consensus at that time.

Jaylen Brown was seen as a huge reach in 2016 since he was just some athletic mystery box who didn't really do anything that well at Cal. The next year, it wasn't entirely clear to a lot of people that Tatum was even better than Josh Jackson as the draft's best wing; Fultz was virtually a consensus number 1 that year
Tatum is also on record saying that the Celtics were going to pick him at 1 but they knew that Philly wanted Fultz and so decided to trade the pick
An average GM would have probably drafted Dragan Bender and Josh Jackson those two years, or Bender/Fultz if he didn't make the trade

It's amazing in the NBA how all you have to do is hit on 1-2 big decisions and you're able to set your franchise up for success for a decade. Even if Stevens hadn't set up Holiday and Porzingis, just drafting Tatum/Brown was enough to turn the Celtics from a lost franchise into perennial contenders

[baseline bum]

An average package we put together would be better than the Warriors package unless they take a sledge hammer to their next decade. Ainge would want their 27 29 and 31 picks, plus probably swaps in between. Steph has maybe 2-3 good years left, and they’d have no way to rebuild, all of that just for a first round playoff out.

To do that the Warriors would probably need to trade their 2025 to Washington since the Wizards would have them over a barrel with their claim to GSW's 2030 if it falls 21-30.

[baseline bum]

Long term it would be best for the Spurs if Lauri went to GS because they wouldn't be good enough to compete in the future + they wouldn't have any way to make the team better after giving all their picks to Utah. One less team to worry about.

More like one more team to worry about if Utah gets GSW's 27, 29, and 31 from them plus 28 and 30 pick swaps.

[DAF86]

Assets I would not trade for Lauri:

-Wemby, Vassell, Castle.
-2025 Spurs' pick.
-Any of the Hawks picks.

Anything else is fair game, imho. What do yall think would be the most enticing package for the Jazz, excluding the assets listed above?

[Dejounte]

Assets I would not trade for Lauri:

-Wemby, Vassell, Castle.
-2025 Spurs' pick.
-Any of the Hawks picks.

Anything else is fair game, imho. What do yall think would be the most enticing package for the Jazz, excluding the assets listed above?

2025 Spurs pick is not valuable at all if they get Lauri without giving up Vassell. That won’t be a lottery pick anymore tbh.

[LeBowen]

Assets I would not trade for Lauri:

-Wemby, Vassell, Castle.
-2025 Spurs' pick.
-Any of the Hawks picks.

Anything else is fair game, imho. What do yall think would be the most enticing package for the Jazz, excluding the assets listed above?

There's 0% chance Spurs get Markkanen without giving up at least one Hawks pick.
I know fans are always subjective, but why would Ainge give up his legit all-star for picks that aren't projected to be in the lottery?

Hawks picks will be good, but I'll repeat again that odds of getting a top5 pick from another team are low because they have no reason to lose games.
Yes, it happened this year with Houston and Brooklyn, but the odds were 20%.
Sorry, but I value Lauri more than 20% chance for a top5 pick.

[DAF86]

2025 Spurs pick is not valuable at all if they get Lauri without giving up Vassell. That won’t be a lottery pick anymore tbh.

You never know, anything can happen. Also, I don't know what guys are expecting, but I really doubt the Spurs get Lauri and immediately become contenders. The most likely scenario would still be a first round exit, which means our pick would be in the late teens. Add that to the Hawks pick and maybe you can trade up in the next draft. Trading our 25 pick would be dangerous malpractice.

[JuneJive]

I think Lowe and McMahon threw cold water on the possibility of a trade.

[DAF86]

There's 0% chance Spurs get Markkanen without giving up at least one Hawks pick.

Well, then they can keep Mark and win 35 games.


I know fans are always subjective, but why would Ainge give up his legit all-star for picks that aren't projected to be in the lottery?

Hawks picks will be good, but I'll repeat again that odds of getting a top5 pick from another team are low because they have no reason to lose games.
Yes, it happened this year with Houston and Brooklyn, but the odds were 20%.
Sorry, but I value Lauri more than 20% chance for a top5 pick.

That's usually the case when these kind of trades happen. Nobody trades an unprotected pick thinking they will be a lottery team. The Nets thought they were gonna be good when they traded for Garnett and Pierce, the Hawks thought they were gonna be good when they trade for Dejounte, same with the Wolves and Gobbert. You are never gonna get a guaranteed lottery pick, you just get unprotected picks hoping for the best.

There are many packages the Spurs can come up, without including the Hawks' picks, that would be better than anything other team can offer the Jazz, tbh.

[scott]

Assets I would not trade for Lauri:

-Wemby, Vassell, Castle.
-2025 Spurs' pick.
-Any of the Hawks picks.

Anything else is fair game, imho. What do yall think would be the most enticing package for the Jazz, excluding the assets listed above?

At least per the Jazz fans I have spoken to (expect for one), there is no deal without Vassell and all the ATL picks - so fuck these near beer drinking polygamists - let them rot forever in the treadmill.

*There is one Jazz fan I spoke to who seemed more realistic, and feels like the Jazz should jettison Lauri for a reasonable haul that is mostly pick based and tank. He doesn't love Keldon, but understands that the most valuable assets we have to offer are picks, whereas GSW has more valuable young players to offer (since our only valuable young assets are really just Wemby, Vassell and Castle, which we aren't giving up). But most Jazz fans seem to think they don't need to do anything and that teams must offer the greatest package in history for Lauri. Fuck 'em.

[LeBowen]

Well, then they can keep Mark and win 35 games.

And we can bank on 30% chance to get a top4 pick with our own and Hawks picks and another 30% chance that the player we draft will turn out to be better than Markkanen in like three to four years.
There's a reason why all-star players are so expensive these days. There aren't many of them.


That's usually the case when these kind of trades happen. Nobody trades an unprotected pick thinking they will be a lottery team. The Nets thought they were gonna be good when they traded for Garnett and Pierce, the Hawks thought they were gonna be good when they trade for Dejounte, same with the Wolves and Gobbert.

Difference being that those teams blew their entire load and hoped for the best.
Spurs already have their franchise player and 11 or 12 FRPs in the next 7 drafts. With 5 more swaps on top.


You are never gonna get a guaranteed lottery pick, you just get unprotected picks hoping for the best.

You don't hope for the best when the team that's trading you that pick has Wemby and is getting another all-star.

I wouldn't trade '25 picks and I doubt Ainge would prefer them, but trading either '26 or '27 Hawks picks is fair.
They can't tank meaning they won't have top4 odds. Maybe Ainge gets lucky with 20-30% odds to get a top4 pick, maybe he doesn't.
As I said, I value Markkanen more than those low odds.

I obviously wouldn't trade all the Hawks picks, but if we're to get an all-star, we need to trade away one high value asset.

[scott]

Well, then they can keep Mark and win 35 games.



That's usually the case when these kind of trades happen. Nobody trades an unprotected pick thinking they will be a lottery team. The Nets thought they were gonna be good when they traded for Garnett and Pierce, the Hawks thought they were gonna be good when they trade for Dejounte, same with the Wolves and Gobbert. You are never gonna get a guaranteed lottery pick, you just get unprotected picks hoping for the best.

There are many packages the Spurs can come up, without including the Hawks' picks, that would be better than anything other team can offer the Jazz, tbh.

I believe this is the key thing that has been lost of late. The Jazz should be picking a lane, but they've convinced the world (Lowe and McMahon included) that they are happy just extending Lauri. Call their bluff. Extending Lauri put them in a spot where they either end up in the mid-to-late lotto treadmill again, or where they have to sit Lauri and trade away guys like Sexton, which will piss Lauri off to where he ultimately just demands a trade and the Jazz get even less for him.

Ainge doesn't have as much leverage as he is being given credit for an as Jazz fans want to believe. So much so, that I'd even remove one of the picks I've suggested and only offer SA28, SA30 and MIN31. Fuck Ainge.

[MultiTroll]

Injury prone?
Lauri Markkanen Injuries - NBA | FOX Sports (https://www.foxsports.com/nba/lauri-markkanen-player-injuries)

Somebody upthread mentioned Makannens injurys.
Thoughts before signing him to some fat contract?

[scott]

And we can bank on 30% chance to get a top4 pick with our own and Hawks picks and another 30% chance that the player we draft will turn out to be better than Markkanen in like three to four years.
There's a reason why all-star players are so expensive these days. There aren't many of them.



Difference being that those teams blew their entire load and hoped for the best.
Spurs already have their franchise player and 11 or 12 FRPs in the next 7 drafts. With 5 more swaps on top.



You don't hope for the best when the team that's trading you that pick has Wemby and is getting another all-star.

I wouldn't trade '25 picks and I doubt Ainge would prefer them, but trading either '26 or '27 Hawks picks is fair.
They can't tank meaning they won't have top4 odds. Maybe Ainge gets lucky with 20-30% odds to get a top4 pick, maybe he doesn't.
As I said, I value Markkanen more than those low odds.

I obviously wouldn't trade all the Hawks picks, but if we're to get an all-star, we need to trade away one high value asset.

I think it's well known that I'm CEO (or at least VP) of the Lauri Gang around here, so this may come as a surprise to hear me say... but we don't HAVE to get Lauri. Do I believe we'll be awesome with him? Yes. But we should still be able to build a winner around Wemby without him. I'd be fine with rolling the dice on two lotto picks next year. I'm not putting any 25 picks on the table for Ainge, and I'm even backtracking on the 26 pick.

[LeBowen]

I think it's well known that I'm CEO (or at least VP) of the Lauri Gang around here, so this may come as a surprise to hear me say... but we don't HAVE to get Lauri. Do I believe we'll be awesome with him? Yes. But we should still be able to build a winner around Wemby without him. I'd be fine with rolling the dice on two lotto picks next year. I'm not putting any 25 picks on the table for Ainge, and I'm even backtracking on the 26 pick.

I also wouldn't trade '25 picks, that was just to put things into perspective.
I'd be fine with either '26 or '27.

He's just too perfect of a trade for many reasons.
Basketball fit is as good as it gets.
Obviously he'd agree to extend like OG and Siakam did if he's traded, his contract situation would be perfect because it would allign with Devin and we wouldn't have any cap issues or big decisions to make on who to trade before 2028 when both of them would enter their final year.
We have a ton of pick and at some point we'll start using them. I'm a firm believer that forwards are more valuable than guards and I'm also high on Devin and Castle.
Our forward rotation is still kind of garbage and if you remember Dejounte's topic, there aren't any high young, end forwards we'll be able to get over the next few years that wouldn't fuck up our cap or asset situation.

Imo, if we don't get Lauri, we're not getting an all-star forward in the foreseeable future unless we draft one.

[DAF86]

And we can bank on 30% chance to get a top4 pick with our own and Hawks picks and another 30% chance that the player we draft will turn out to be better than Markkanen in like three to four years.
There's a reason why all-star players are so expensive these days. There aren't many of them.

Yeah, I would rather do that than to overpay for a guy that we don't need to overpay for.


Difference being that those teams blew their entire load and hoped for the best.
Spurs already have their franchise player and 11 or 12 FRPs in the next 7 drafts. With 5 more swaps on top.

So? Just because of that we need to overpay? It's like a guy said earlier in the thread: "not just because you have the money, it means it's smart to pay over market value".


You don't hope for the best when the team that's trading you that pick has Wemby and is getting another all-star.

I wouldn't trade '25 picks and I doubt Ainge would prefer them, but trading either '26 or '27 Hawks picks is fair.
They can't tank meaning they won't have top4 odds. Maybe Ainge gets lucky with 20-30% odds to get a top4 pick, maybe he doesn't.
As I said, I value Markkanen more than those low odds.

I obviously wouldn't trade all the Hawks picks, but if we're to get an all-star, we need to trade away one high value asset.

In a potential Markkenen trade, we would be giving out 3 to 4 unprotected picks, those are "high value assets" regardless of how good you think the Spurs can be in the future.

4 unprotected picks are good enough on themselves, there's no reason to outbid ourselves and have those picks be the Hawks' ones just because we have them. Of course the Jazz are gonna ask for those, but there's no reason for the Spurs to budge because no other team is gonna offer the Jazz these type of picks. The Spurs have no competitors.

You sound like a guy that would get fleeced by Ainge, tbh :lol. No need to add Hawks' picks, between our own picks, the Hornets, Chicago and the Wolves and Mavs picks, there's a good enough package to offer that would beat any other proposal the Jazz get.

[LeBowen]

Yeah, I would rather do that than to overpay for a guy that we don't need to overpay for.

So? Just because of that we need to overpay? It's like a guy said earlier in the thread: "not just because you have the money, it means it's smart to pay over market value".


What's an overpay? It depends on how you see the player.
Knicks gave up 4 unprotected own FRPs, 1 unprotected swap and top4 protected '25 Bucks pick for Bridges who's a tier below Lauri.


In a potential Markkenen trade, we would be giving out 3 to 4 unprotected picks, those are "high value assets" regardless of how good you think the Spurs can be in the future.

But we have enough assets that we don't have to use more than one own pick, if that.
We just traded away a #8 pick. I said I'm fine with it if that pick is used for something. But trading away a #8 pick while we're still one of the worst teams in the league makes no sense if they're still about building through draft.

Another thing is that 7 Spurs FRPs before Wemby wouldn't get us Lauri in a trade. Three of those selections were in the lottery.


4 unprotected picks are good enough on themselves, there's no reason to outbid ourselves and have those picks be the Hawks' ones just because we have them. Of course the Jazz are gonna ask for those, but there's no reason for the Spurs to budge because no other team is gonna offer the Jazz these type of picks. The Spurs have no competitors.

You sound like a guy that would get fleeced by Ainge, tbh :lol. No need to add Hawks' picks, between our own picks, the Hornets, Chicago and the Wolves and Mavs picks, there's a good enough package to offer that would beat any other proposal the Jazz get.

Hornets pick won't convey. It won't be considered as a FRP by anyone.
You're more or less arguing over one Hawks pick because my offer would be:
'25 CHI
'30 SAS/MIN/DAL
'31 MIN
and one Hawks pick. Either '26 or '27.

You'd really value one of those two picks over Lauri when Hawks don't have an incentive to tank in a conference that's garbage and a third of it is either tanking or will be tanking in a year or two?

[TD 21]

I obviously wouldn't trade all the Hawks picks, but if we're to get an all-star, we need to trade away one high value asset.

Why wouldn't a team give up a malleable, in their prime star, who wants to stay in their non glamor market, for none of a team's best assets?



I believe this is the key thing that has been lost of late. The Jazz should be picking a lane, but they've convinced the world (Lowe and McMahon included) that they are happy just extending Lauri. Call their bluff. Extending Lauri put them in a spot where they either end up in the mid-to-late lotto treadmill again, or where they have to sit Lauri and trade away guys like Sexton, which will piss Lauri off to where he ultimately just demands a trade and the Jazz get even less for him.

Ainge doesn't have as much leverage as he is being given credit for an as Jazz fans want to believe. So much so, that I'd even remove one of the picks I've suggested and only offer SA28, SA30 and MIN31. Fuck Ainge.

I don't disagree, but: They project as a bottom 6 team as is, (Bulls, Trail Blazers, Pistons, Nets, Wizards), getting to the bottom 2 is going to be difficult no matter what and as good a prospect (and ideal of one in that market) as Flagg is, he's not Wembanyama and the '25 draft is supposed to be similar to the '21 draft where there's a loaded, extensive top tier.

[scott]

I don't disagree, but: They project as a bottom 6 team as is, (Bulls, Trail Blazers, Pistons, Nets, Wizards), getting to the bottom 2 is going to be difficult no matter what and as good a prospect (and ideal of one in that market) as Flagg is, he's not Wembanyama and the '25 draft is supposed to be similar to the '21 draft where there's a loaded, extensive top tier.

Tanking this year is an interesting study to me, because unlike the Wemby year where you were in-the-money only at #1, I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that you are in-the-money anywhere in the Top 5 this year (of course, it is early, and some of these guys could bust out). I don’t see this as “The Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes as much as I do the “Flagg-Bailey-Harper-Traore-Edgecomb” draft (with Hugo Gonzalez a stalking horse to enter the conversation).

So with that in mind, it is easier to finish in the money but as a result I think we will see a next level of tanking by some of the teams in that 6-12 range. In many respects, that is going to hurt us with the ATL pick because they have no reason to join the fray which may clear out an easy path to them to finish towards the back of the lotto or even play-in. So, Utah will both have a bigger range to hit but more competition in the tank race.

If I am the Jazz, I want to do everything possible to get that Top 5 in-the-money pick this year. 30-34 wins will be a complete disaster for them. Lauri, Sexton, Clarkson and Jollins are enough vet talent for them to make things risky… I think they have more need to move off these guys than is being suggested.

One thing is for certain: there is going to be some terrible basketball being played this season :lol

[Bruno]

Something to keep in mind is the new CBA rule about the floor team salary.

When a team is below the floor on opening night, it is now heavily penalized:
- It has a cap hold to negate the extra cap space available.
- It must pay the difference between its team salary and the floor to the league.
- It doesn't received a luxury tax payout share which will be about $15M this season.

Utah is currently $16M below the floor (and $30M below the cap) and they must raise their team salary by that amount before opening night. A max raise and extend deal with Markannen will up their team salary by $24M.

To me, it's a strong hint that Jazz main intend is to do the "raise and extend" move this summer. Jazz and Markannen have two options with that deal:
- Doing it on August 6th: Markannnen will be tradable just in time for the trade deadline (February 6th this season).
- Doing it later in August: Markannen won't be tradable until the 2025 summer.

[scott]

If the Jazz keep Lauri and make (but lose) a play-in game (and then lose their pick to OKC), does Hardy get fired for exceeding expectations? :lol This would probably be the worst possible scenario for UTA.

[baseline bum]

Tanking this year is an interesting study to me, because unlike the Wemby year where you were in-the-money only at #1, I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that you are in-the-money anywhere in the Top 5 this year (of course, it is early, and some of these guys could bust out). I don’t see this as “The Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes as much as I do the “Flagg-Bailey-Harper-Traore-Edgecomb” draft (with Hugo Gonzalez a stalking horse to enter the conversation).

So with that in mind, it is easier to finish in the money but as a result I think we will see a next level of tanking by some of the teams in that 6-12 range. In many respects, that is going to hurt us with the ATL pick because they have no reason to join the fray which may clear out an easy path to them to finish towards the back of the lotto or even play-in. So, Utah will both have a bigger range to hit but more competition in the tank race.

If I am the Jazz, I want to do everything possible to get that Top 5 in-the-money pick this year. 30-34 wins will be a complete disaster for them. Lauri, Sexton, Clarkson and Jollins are enough vet talent for them to make things risky… I think they have more need to move off these guys than is being suggested.

One thing is for certain: there is going to be some terrible basketball being played this season :lol

Though a year ago Holland, Buzelis, Justin Edwards (lol went undrafted), Collier, and DJ Wagner (lol didn't come out) were supposed to be an exciting top 5 too so you never really know this early.

[TD 21]

Tanking this year is an interesting study to me, because unlike the Wemby year where you were in-the-money only at #1, I believe there is a reasonable case to be made that you are in-the-money anywhere in the Top 5 this year (of course, it is early, and some of these guys could bust out). I don’t see this as “The Cooper Flagg” sweepstakes as much as I do the “Flagg-Bailey-Harper-Traore-Edgecomb” draft (with Hugo Gonzalez a stalking horse to enter the conversation).

So with that in mind, it is easier to finish in the money but as a result I think we will see a next level of tanking by some of the teams in that 6-12 range. In many respects, that is going to hurt us with the ATL pick because they have no reason to join the fray which may clear out an easy path to them to finish towards the back of the lotto or even play-in. So, Utah will both have a bigger range to hit but more competition in the tank race.

If I am the Jazz, I want to do everything possible to get that Top 5 in-the-money pick this year. 30-34 wins will be a complete disaster for them. Lauri, Sexton, Clarkson and Jollins are enough vet talent for them to make things risky… I think they have more need to move off these guys than is being suggested.

One thing is for certain: there is going to be some terrible basketball being played this season :lol

My point exactly. They should be naturally around that line (and can help it by intentionally playing net negative lineups) and at that point, it's not difficult to get to the post All-Star break and occasionally sit or altogether shutdown Markkanen (as much as he might dislike it again, what can he do about it), Sexton and Kessler, if necessary.

[scott]

Though a year ago Holland, Buzelis, Justin Edwards (lol went undrafted), Collier, and DJ Wagner (lol didn't come out) were supposed to be an exciting top 5 too so you never really know this early.

For sure, but I will also say that the 2024 class wasn't as highly regarded as the 2023 or 2025 classes were/are. But come draft day next year this could very well look like a 5-deep draft or a bust like the 2024 draft. We can only go by what we know at the time, right? But that's also why I get frustrated by the folks slobbering over the way we traded away #8 for the meager return we got. 20131 may very well end up a weak ass draft too, and there's only 26.7% chance the pick is as good or better than #8 if you subscribe to the idea that far out picks are all basically subject to natural variance.

But for now... looks like Top 5 is in the money based on everything we know today. We'll just have to see!

[scott]

My point exactly. They should be naturally around that line (and can help it by intentionally playing net negative lineups) and at that point, it's not difficult to get to the post All-Star break and occasionally sit or altogether shutdown Markkanen (as much as he might dislike it again, what can he do about it), Sexton and Kessler, if necessary.

Interestingly, some Jazz fans seem to think that Sexton is the wiser guy to hold on to. He's obviously younger, but more importantly his impact relative to his trade value is much higher. Sure enough, Sexton posts a 19.9 PER and a .127 WS/48, compared to Lauri's 21.5 PER and .163 WS/48 (I understand these are flawed metrics. I would have turned to EPM, but I don't have a subscription to Dunks and Threes and am not sure where else to get that info - shout out to whomever has a lead on the best place to look). Point being, Lauri will cost a haul, Sexton's value probably isn't near that (probably because Sexton is such an easier archetype to replace and the league doesn't value undersized SGs). So trading Sexton likely also helps their tank, but they'd get getting back less value than he provides. It would be kind of like trading Derrick White for Blake Wesley and a pick swap (sorry, couldn't resist).

[jesterbobman]

Interestingly, some Jazz fans seem to think that Sexton is the wiser guy to hold on to. He's obviously younger, but more importantly his impact relative to his trade value is much higher. Sure enough, Sexton posts a 19.9 PER and a .127 WS/48, compared to Lauri's 21.5 PER and .163 WS/48 (I understand these are flawed metrics. I would have turned to EPM, but I don't have a subscription to Dunks and Threes and am not sure where else to get that info - shout out to whomever has a lead on the best place to look). Point being, Lauri will cost a haul, Sexton's value probably isn't near that (probably because Sexton is such an easier archetype to replace and the league doesn't value undersized SGs). So trading Sexton likely also helps their tank, but they'd get getting back less value than he provides. It would be kind of like trading Derrick White for Blake Wesley and a pick swap (sorry, couldn't resist).

Scrolling through Dunks and Threes (without a sub, you can see everyone but can't search), Lauri is a +3.7 (+4.6 Offense, -0.9 Defense), Sexton is a +2.2 (+3.8 Offense, -1.6 Defense). All estimates are wrong, but the three together point to Lauri being a slightly better player (1.5 extra points of value per 48 is quite a bit, worth about 4-5 wins in difference over the course of a season).

I was interested in a Sexton trade in concept earlier pre draft and FA, but I don't think that we're a great partner now. I think the Guard minutes are the strongest in terms of depth, and unless you moved to smallish lineups with Castle and Vassell playing a lot of SF, it's hard to make the minute distribution work.

[scott]

Scrolling through Dunks and Threes (without a sub, you can see everyone but can't search), Lauri is a +3.7 (+4.6 Offense, -0.9 Defense), Sexton is a +2.2 (+3.8 Offense, -1.6 Defense). All estimates are wrong, but the three together point to Lauri being a slightly better player (1.5 extra points of value per 48 is quite a bit, worth about 4-5 wins in difference over the course of a season).

I was interested in a Sexton trade in concept earlier pre draft and FA, but I don't think that we're a great partner now. I think the Guard minutes are the strongest in terms of depth, and unless you moved to smallish lineups with Castle and Vassell playing a lot of SF, it's hard to make the minute distribution work.

Thanks for the tip on scrolling.

Sexton is a 96th percentile Offensive EPM, which is not what I would have expected. He's an easy archetype to replace, but he's actually fairly efficient (76th percentile TS%). Kind of a hidden gem there in Utah, definitely worth more to a team than would likely return in a trade.

[Dex]

I think Lowe and McMahon threw cold water on the possibility of a trade.

They did.

Basically said that Utah is listening to offers, but their asking price is too high. Lauri has also said he wants to stay in Utah and not move his wife and kid.

Seems more likely that they will either extend him or risk a contract year with him, but the motivation doesn't seem to be there from Utah's side unless someone makes a ridiculous offer, and it wouldn't be prudent for the Spurs to do so.

That said, it pretty much keeps the Jazz as a treadmill team...not getting worse, but definitely not getting better enough to be relevant.

[Pauleta14]

Games played last 3 seasons by Lauri : 55, 66 and 61

Another season of that type and his value could drop a lot

[sfernald]

They did.

Basically said that Utah is listening to offers, but their asking price is too high. Lauri has also said he wants to stay in Utah and not move his wife and kid.

Seems more likely that they will either extend him or risk a contract year with him, but the motivation doesn't seem to be there from Utah's side unless someone makes a ridiculous offer, and it wouldn't be prudent for the Spurs to do so.

That said, it pretty much keeps the Jazz as a treadmill team...not getting worse, but definitely not getting better enough to be relevant.

Since it's reported that Mark won't sit out games again for the Tank next year, him staying is great news for the OKC Thunder and that top 10 protected 2025 draft pick of Utah's they own.

[Atl Spur]

Games played last 3 seasons by Lauri : 55, 66 and 61

Another season of that type and his value could drop a lot

But this board called KP was too injury prone…. They are basically the same guy over the last three years! lol Spurstalk, please never change ( heart emoji )

[exstatic]

Interestingly, some Jazz fans seem to think that Sexton is the wiser guy to hold on to. He's obviously younger, but more importantly his impact relative to his trade value is much higher. Sure enough, Sexton posts a 19.9 PER and a .127 WS/48, compared to Lauri's 21.5 PER and .163 WS/48 (I understand these are flawed metrics. I would have turned to EPM, but I don't have a subscription to Dunks and Threes and am not sure where else to get that info - shout out to whomever has a lead on the best place to look). Point being, Lauri will cost a haul, Sexton's value probably isn't near that (probably because Sexton is such an easier archetype to replace and the league doesn't value undersized SGs). So trading Sexton likely also helps their tank, but they'd get getting back less value than he provides. It would be kind of like trading Derrick White for Blake Wesley and a pick swap (sorry, couldn't resist).

:lol

[Spurs9]

Chandler Parsons 2.0

[exstatic]

Games played last 3 seasons by Lauri : 55, 66 and 61

Another season of that type and his value could drop a lot
I think you can count on TWO more seasons like that, since this isn’t the end of that pick’s peril. It only has 1-8 protection in 2025-2026.

[rjv]

They did.

Basically said that Utah is listening to offers, but their asking price is too high. Lauri has also said he wants to stay in Utah and not move his wife and kid.

Seems more likely that they will either extend him or risk a contract year with him, but the motivation doesn't seem to be there from Utah's side unless someone makes a ridiculous offer, and it wouldn't be prudent for the Spurs to do so.

That said, it pretty much keeps the Jazz as a treadmill team...not getting worse, but definitely not getting better enough to be relevant.

they also said that the jazz could still only be better than the blazers in the west this season. that would still only get them around the 6th worst record, considering that they would most likely still have a better record than the pistons, wizards, nets and hornets.

[Knoxxx]

https://athlonsports.com/nba/san-antonio-spurs/inside-spurs/news/san-antonio-spurs-trade-keldon-johnson-cap-space-cba-utah-jazz-lauri-markkanen

Summary: Jazz need to work with us to get up to salary cap floor while avoiding any bad contracts on new free agents or something to that effect.

[Mr. Body]

Wow the Jazz at at the point of worrying about the salary floor. What is Ainge doing.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Jazz aren’t and shouldn’t be worried about the salary floor. That article is incredibly poorly researched.

[exstatic]

Wow the Jazz at at the point of worrying about the salary floor. What is Ainge doing.

Probably clearing room to raise and extend LM.

It would be wild if LM said no, and then no teams would dump salary to Utah, they don’t hit the floor in time, and don’t get their luxtax payment.

[JPB]

Jazz aren’t and shouldn’t be worried about the salary floor. That article is incredibly poorly researched.

I mean, right?

[Mr. Body]

Probably clearing room to raise and extend LM.

It would be wild if LM said no, and then no teams would dump salary to Utah, they don’t hit the floor in time, and don’t get their luxtax payment.

Extending Markkanen would be a big problem for the Jazz. It's their only likely solution but it traps them in this submediocre hell.

If their plan was extending him, I don't know what they're doing.

If they planned on trading him, they need to somehow use that space with no FAs left or needed.

They're like a semi approaching a barrier in a median. They need to serve left or right but some do either.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Probably clearing room to raise and extend LM.

It would be wild if LM said no, and then no teams would dump salary to Utah, they don’t hit the floor in time, and don’t get their luxtax payment.

Some scrub would just hit the lottery. They'd sign someone for 1 year at the amount they need to reach the minimum.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Some scrub would just hit the lottery. They'd sign someone for 1 year at the amount they need to reach the minimum.

There are plenty of teams willing to shed a contract into cap space and acquire a trade exception. Jazz have a million ways to use their available money.

[Bruno]

For Utah, I don't think there is an obvious right choice between trading and re-signing Markannen.

If Utah follow the usual rebuilding recipe by trading Markannen for picks/prospects, they could easily end up in a Detroit situation and being awful for half a decade because their current youth (Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George...) has shown nothing special so far.

Utah might also try to reload the team around Markannen after one year of tanking with the risk of ending being stuck in mediocrity.


It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

[Degoat]

^ I think the problem now is you really dont have to go all in on a tank to end up with a top 4 pick. We just saw it this year with Atlanta moving up to #1 because of the change in the odds for the lottery.

[scott]

Jazz also have open roster slots and can just take back more than they send out if they do trade Lauri. They'll either reneg and ext Lauri to fill that cap space or they'll rent it out... or they'll just do renegotiations on someone like Clarkson as a reward for being a long term good soldier.

Much ado about nothing.

Bleacher report had a hypothetical three-way deal with the Warriors and Kings that is a package the Spurs could easily beat. I love that the media is starting to get over Ainge's hard balling. Fuck Ainge.

[scott]

For Utah, I don't think there is an obvious right choice between trading and re-signing Markannen.

If Utah follow the usual rebuilding recipe by trading Markannen for picks/prospects, they could easily end up in a Detroit situation and being awful for half a decade because their current youth (Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George...) has shown nothing special so far.

Utah might also try to reload the team around Markannen after one year of tanking with the risk of ending being stuck in mediocrity.


It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

Unfortunately, this is the structure the NBA has created for small market teams. The Spurs would be in this exact spot with Vassell had we not hit the Wemby jackpot. There just isn't another way to crawl out of the bottom for a small market club other than to tank and hope for the ping pong gods to respond.

[TeKu]

It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

This is key, and why I expect Utah ends up extending/keeping LM. There's some dedicated tankers this season, even without Markannen I'd put WAS/BKN below UTA in roster talent.

Let's assume they trade LM, tank and end up with the 5th worst record, odds of a top 4 pick are 42% (44% for Top 5).

If they keep LM and follow the same trend as the past 2 seasons and end up with the 8th worst record (where they finished last year), odds of a top 4 pick are 26%.

Would you trade a young All Star, who is on the record as wanting to be with your team, for a extra ~18% chance at a top 4 pick?? At what point does this random math make sense to give up such a key piece, +25%, +30%, +50%?

[baseline bum]

For Utah, I don't think there is an obvious right choice between trading and re-signing Markannen.

If Utah follow the usual rebuilding recipe by trading Markannen for picks/prospects, they could easily end up in a Detroit situation and being awful for half a decade because their current youth (Walker Kessler, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George...) has shown nothing special so far.

Utah might also try to reload the team around Markannen after one year of tanking with the risk of ending being stuck in mediocrity.


It isn't an easy choice especially with the randomness of the draft lottery playing such a big role in a full rebuilding through the draft process.

With what right now looks to be two very strong drafts back to back Utah probably should blow it up and tank, especially since they can wring what should have a great shot at being a lottery pick out of the Spurs via Atlanta for either 25 or 26. Especially with the second apron now keeping you from making three star teams it becomes even more imperative to have a top notch #1 guy.

[scott]

This is key, and why I expect Utah ends up extending/keeping LM. There's some dedicated tankers this season, even without Markannen I'd put WAS/BKN below UTA in roster talent.

Let's assume they trade LM, tank and end up with the 5th worst record, odds of a top 4 pick are 42% (44% for Top 5).

If they keep LM and follow the same trend as the past 2 seasons and end up with the 8th worst record (where they finished last year), odds of a top 4 pick are 26%.

Would you trade a young All Star, who is on the record as wanting to be with your team, for a extra ~18% chance at a top 4 pick?? At what point does this random math make sense to give up such a key piece, +25%, +30%, +50%?

I think a starting lineup of Collier, George, Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler could easily put them in the running for a bottom-3 record, and that is what they should do.

That lineup will be terrible, but it will also be kind of exciting for UTA fans - at least it is showcasing the youth. I'd compare it to our pre-Wemby tank. We had to watch McBuckets, Josh Richardson and Jak soak up minutes when we all probably would have preferred to just watch Blake-Bran-Devin-Sochan-Collins lineups. If you're gonna be bad, at least be bad while giving the youngsters some run.

[LeBowen]

Another thing to consider is that a lot of owners don't really care about competing for championships.
They're content with the arena being sold out and their team making the playoffs, winning a series here and there.
As I said before, Utah is the only team in the league that never lost 60 games. They just don't want to tank.

They have a ton of assets, odds of a superstar agreeing to join Utah are low.
Other than tanking, they can just build a solid team and then hope to strike gold with picks in 9-18 range. It's not like it's impossible.

But it's going to be really hard for them to keep their pick this year if Markkanen plays enough games.
I guess noone in the West except Blazers tanking is an advantage for them.
Nets, Wizards, Bulls will be horrible. Pistons, Hornets and Raptors won't be much better.
They could easily be in a similar situation to Raptors this year with their FRP.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Utah trading one of those CLE/MIN picks they have to remove protections on this year's pick if they do well.
OKC has own, PHI, MIA, LAC/HOU picks already, they don't need a fifth FRP in the same draft.

[baseline bum]

This is key, and why I expect Utah ends up extending/keeping LM. There's some dedicated tankers this season, even without Markannen I'd put WAS/BKN below UTA in roster talent.

Let's assume they trade LM, tank and end up with the 5th worst record, odds of a top 4 pick are 42% (44% for Top 5).

If they keep LM and follow the same trend as the past 2 seasons and end up with the 8th worst record (where they finished last year), odds of a top 4 pick are 26%.

Would you trade a young All Star, who is on the record as wanting to be with your team, for a extra ~18% chance at a top 4 pick?? At what point does this random math make sense to give up such a key piece, +25%, +30%, +50%?

They also need to tank to keep from having to give OKC their lottery pick. Let's say they end up with the 8th worst record. Then they probably keep their pick for 2025 but if they're 8th worst again in 2026 there is a nearly 40% chance their 2026 pick conveys to OKC.

[scott]

Another thing to consider is that a lot of owners don't really care about competing for championships.
They're content with the arena being sold out and their team making the playoffs, winning a series here and there.
As I said before, Utah is the only team in the league that never lost 60 games. They just don't want to tank.

They have a ton of assets, odds of a superstar agreeing to join Utah are low.
Other than tanking, they can just build a solid team and then hope to strike gold with picks in 9-18 range. It's not like it's impossible.

But it's going to be really hard for them to keep their pick this year if Markkanen plays enough games.
I guess noone in the West except Blazers tanking is an advantage for them.
Nets, Wizards, Bulls will be horrible. Pistons, Hornets and Raptors won't be much better.
They could easily be in a similar situation to Raptors this year with their FRP.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Utah trading one of those CLE/MIN picks they have to remove protections on this year's pick if they do well.
OKC has own, PHI, MIA, LAC/HOU picks already, they don't need a fifth FRP in the same draft.

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

[baseline bum]

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

Fortunately, lucking into getting Victor probably makes it better for them to spend to win the same way lucking into Tim did for his pops, who would have 100% been that type of owner you're scared of without that lucky bounce of the lottery balls in 97.

[LeBowen]

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.

That's probably what would've happened if we didn't get Wemby.
But he'll be not only the best, but the most marketable player in the league and generate so much revenue that competing is a better investment than treadmilling and potentially losing Wemby.

Current CBA looks like it's anti-superteam, Wemby is probably the easiest player to build a contender around, we'll be able to compete even without going too far into luxury tax.

[TeKu]

They also need to tank to keep from having to give OKC their lottery pick. Let's say they end up with the 8th worst record. Then they probably keep their pick for 2025 but if they're 8th worst again in 2026 there is a nearly 40% chance their 2026 pick conveys to OKC.

That pick is a definite thorn for Utah, maybe they try and trade one of their future MIN/CLE unprotected picks for it back again. The obligation drops entirely after 2026, but, I agree, threading the needle for 2 years in a row would be lucky.

[TeKu]

I think a starting lineup of Collier, George, Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks and Walker Kessler could easily put them in the running for a bottom-3 record, and that is what they should do.

That lineup will be terrible, but it will also be kind of exciting for UTA fans - at least it is showcasing the youth. I'd compare it to our pre-Wemby tank. We had to watch McBuckets, Josh Richardson and Jak soak up minutes when we all probably would have preferred to just watch Blake-Bran-Devin-Sochan-Collins lineups. If you're gonna be bad, at least be bad while giving the youngsters some run.

Agreed, but is it likely, other than Sam Hinkie who has actually been willing to roll out these all development lineups? And it potentially cost him his job. In general, owners care about full stadiums more than X% increase at a title in 5 years.

[scott]

Agreed, but is it likely, other than Sam Hinkie who has actually been willing to roll out these all development lineups? And it potentially cost him his job. In general, owners care about full stadiums more than X% increase at a title in 5 years.

It definitely takes a FO and head coach with the highest levels of job security to do it, which is why I'm surprised we didn't do it when we had the chance. Could Ainge, Zanik and Hardy have that kind of job security? I don't know... but I think extending Lauri, finishing 11th, and losing the pick to OKC would threaten their job security more than one season of hard tanking... who knows.

[Bruno]

Unfortunately, this is the structure the NBA has created for small market teams. The Spurs would be in this exact spot with Vassell had we not hit the Wemby jackpot. There just isn't another way to crawl out of the bottom for a small market club other than to tank and hope for the ping pong gods to respond.

Full tanking is the only way for Utah to build a true contender but if their goal is to win 50 games per year and win a playoff round, they might do a reload. Utah also has a decent draft pick chest to use in trades after the Gobert and Mitchell trades.

On a side not, the edge big market teams have above small market teams seems to be at a low point:
- Second apron is starting to show its effect with, for example, Clippers letting go Paul George.
- Less and less players are hitting free agency. Donovan Mitchell signing an extension with Cavs is a good example of that trend.

... which is a good news for Spurs.

[scott]

Full tanking is the only way for Utah to build a true contender but if their goal is to win 50 games per year and win a playoff round, they might do a reload. Utah also has a decent draft pick chest to use in trades after the Gobert and Mitchell trades.

On a side not, the edge big market teams have above small market teams seems to be at a low point:
- Second apron is starting to show its effect with, for example, Clippers letting go Paul George.
- Less and less players are hitting free agency. Donovan Mitchell signing an extension with Cavs is a good example of that trend.

... which is a good news for Spurs.

Great points...

On the Paul George example, he still went from a Big Market to another Big Market though... so I'm not sure how indicative that will be for the fortunes of small market teams.

The Mitchell extension is a really good point, but I think also highlights how important it is to get your #1 in house, which still might only be able to happen via the draft for a team like Utah.

I wonder if Utah can rebuild enough to become a 50-win team for a short burst. I suppose had they been successful at trading for Bridges, that could have put them in the mix, but maybe only lasting until Bridges's contract expires and he wants to go elsewhere? It's a curious position for them to be in, as you pointed out.

[TeKu]

It definitely takes a FO and head coach with the highest levels of job security to do it, which is why I'm surprised we didn't do it when we had the chance. Could Ainge, Zanik and Hardy have that kind of job security? I don't know... but I think extending Lauri, finishing 11th, and losing the pick to OKC would threaten their job security more than one season of hard tanking... who knows.

Ainge & Co do have more job security than most so maybe, but it's really Ryan Smith who'd be making a call like that. Most owners just aren't willing to take that hit to wallet/pride.

[TD 21]

Ainge & Co do have more job security than most so maybe, but it's really Ryan Smith who'd be making a call like that. Most owners just aren't willing to take that hit to wallet/pride.

Ainge proclaiming the Jazz were "going big game hunting" at the onset of the off season indicated to me that Smith has grown impatient and told management he'd had enough of tanking.

They'd been linked to George, Bridges and Murray and now today, Ingram (pending Markkanen being extended).

[LeBowen]

The Mitchell extension is a really good point, but I think also highlights how important it is to get your #1 in house, which still might only be able to happen via the draft for a team like Utah.


Tbh, Mitchell extension isn't that great for the Cavs. He kind of just put pressure on them to make some win now moves or he'll be gone soon enough.
Just a three year extension, with player option for 27-28 season. Meaning 26-27 season is probably the last one.
Meaning they'll probably have to trade him in 2026 if they don't improve.

He obviously wants to go back home, my hot take would be that Nets trade for him in 2026 after getting two top5 picks.


I wonder if Utah can rebuild enough to become a 50-win team for a short burst. I suppose had they been successful at trading for Bridges, that could have put them in the mix, but maybe only lasting until Bridges's contract expires and he wants to go elsewhere? It's a curious position for them to be in, as you pointed out.

Imo, it will be interesting to see the dynamic between them, Cleveland and Minnesota if they decide to keep Lauri.
Minnesota will probably have to let go of either McDaniels or Naz next summer. Utah could get McDaniels by giving a pick or two from Gobert trade back.
Lauri needs a legit rim protector and Kessler seems to be kind of lost. Cleveland probably doesn't want to keep Allen long term, they just extended Mobley.

Sexton, McDaniels, Lauri, Allen and one of Hendricks/George/Collier/Williams/'25 rookie developing and there's your parennial first round exit core.
Arena sold out, ownership is happy. Ainge probably quits. :lol

[MultiTroll]

Which will come first?

A Markannen decision or this thread reaching 100 pages?

Hawaiin vacation to the winner who picks and the exact date.

[KobesAchilles]

My greatest fear is that this is where Holt Jr and his band of private investors are these days.
That’s a good fear to have, even with Wemby. People saying that it can’t happen bc we have Wemby are Spurs fans who are too young to remember the Robinson days. We gutted that team and went major cheap with Robinson bc they knew we would make the playoffs regardless. Could’ve had MVP Barkley but didn’t want to pay him. Could’ve had Chuck Daly but wanted to hire Lucas and ensure we had the cheapest coach in the league. Didn’t pay Strickland, signed Avery Johnson and Vinny DN as starters bc we didn’t have to pay them anything. They completely ruined my favorite (at the time) players legacy with their ineptitude.

My fears/predictions have come true so far with the Spurs not making the playoffs 5 years in a row. My prediction was 8 years in a row but I feel like Wemby will get us there in 2027. But it irks me that other fans on this board seem perfectly fine with Pop costing Wemby an all nba team and a DPOY award. They just assume that he will win a plethora of them and so who cares. But to me, that’s such a bullshit attitude to have. It’s not wrong to expect greatness and have expectations that the franchise gears itself towards greatness when you have a player like Wemby.

[lefty20]

Which will come first?

A Markannen decision or this thread reaching 100 pages?

Hawaiin vacation to the winner who picks and the exact date.

Ainge is obviously waiting to see if this thread reaches 100 pages. No point in trading him here if it doesn't, as it would indicate that the fans clearly don't want him bad enough.

[Manu&Duncan fan]

There's 0% chance Spurs get Markkanen without giving up at least one Hawks pick.
I know fans are always subjective, but why would Ainge give up his legit all-star for picks that aren't projected to be in the lottery?

Hawks picks will be good, but I'll repeat again that odds of getting a top5 pick from another team are low because they have no reason to lose games.
Yes, it happened this year with Houston and Brooklyn, but the odds were 20%.
Sorry, but I value Lauri more than 20% chance for a top5 pick.

Each of the Hawk's 3 picks have a 20% chance of a top 5 pick. Then, what's the chance we get a top 5 from all 3 picks is 92%. Is my math correct? That's why none of these 3 picks are touchable.

[ambchang]

Each of the Hawk's 3 picks have a 20% chance of a top 5 pick. Then, what's the chance we get a top 5 from all 3 picks is 92%. Is my math correct? That's why none of these 3 picks are touchable.

If we use a flat percentage of 20%, the the chance of the hawks not being a top 5 for all three picks would be .8^3=51.2%. So we have a chance of getting one or more too 5 picks out of those three at a 48.8%

[MultiTroll]

I'm now firmly in the camp of Mark but only for a reasonable trade.

Is there a 2% chance he plays out his current contract and comes to Spurs as a UFA next summer?

[scott]

Each of the Hawk's 3 picks have a 20% chance of a top 5 pick. Then, what's the chance we get a top 5 from all 3 picks is 92%. Is my math correct? That's why none of these 3 picks are touchable.

I might be misunderstanding the question based on the way it's written and, but no, you do not have a 92% chance of all 3 picks landing in the Top 5.

If the chance of ONE pick being in the Top 5 is 20%, then the chance of all three picks landing in the top 5 is inherently lower than 20%. The odds of all three picks landing in the Top 5 would be 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.2 = 0.008 = 0.8%


If we use a flat percentage of 20%, the the chance of the hawks not being a top 5 for all three picks would be .8^3=51.2%. So we have a chance of getting one or more too 5 picks out of those three at a 48.8%

If you're asking what the odds of getting a Top 5 pick from at least one of the picks, this is correct. Here is a handy calculator for quickly solving for these types of basic probability problems: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability

[scott]

I'm now firmly in the camp of Mark but only for a reasonable trade.

Is there a 2% chance he plays out his current contract and comes to Spurs as a UFA next summer?

Personally I'd put this at a less than 1% chance. No reason for Lauri to hit UFA next summer. He'd just reneg and extend with UTA and then ask for a trade next summer instead.

[baseline bum]

That’s a good fear to have, even with Wemby. People saying that it can’t happen bc we have Wemby are Spurs fans who are too young to remember the Robinson days. We gutted that team and went major cheap with Robinson bc they knew we would make the playoffs regardless. Could’ve had MVP Barkley but didn’t want to pay him. Could’ve had Chuck Daly but wanted to hire Lucas and ensure we had the cheapest coach in the league. Didn’t pay Strickland, signed Avery Johnson and Vinny DN as starters bc we didn’t have to pay them anything. They completely ruined my favorite (at the time) players legacy with their ineptitude.

My fears/predictions have come true so far with the Spurs not making the playoffs 5 years in a row. My prediction was 8 years in a row but I feel like Wemby will get us there in 2027. But it irks me that other fans on this board seem perfectly fine with Pop costing Wemby an all nba team and a DPOY award. They just assume that he will win a plethora of them and so who cares. But to me, that’s such a bullshit attitude to have. It’s not wrong to expect greatness and have expectations that the franchise gears itself towards greatness when you have a player like Wemby.

Red McCombs was a special level of shitbag largely responsible for this fucked up political climate the US now has thanks to Clear Channel brainwashing millions with fascist crap like Limbaugh, O'Reilly, Hannity, etc beating the same message into peoples' heads hour after hour. If the Holts sold their stake to Dell then I'd be shitting bricks about getting another absolute sociopath owning and controlling the team but McCombs is a really high bar to clear when it comes to horrible owners.

[MultiTroll]

Personally I'd put this at a less than 1% chance. No reason for Lauri to hit UFA next summer. He'd just reneg and extend with UTA and then ask for a trade next summer instead.
All for some extra dough as UT can extend for more $$

Timmy Dunks taking 5 mil per year for another chance to title in 16. We're just never gonna see that again are we?
I realize that was a different cause.

Point being taking less, in Mark and modern day super paid NBA All Stars, FFS does it really impact your life if you sign for 200 million with UT vs 170 with Spurs and get 5 rings with Wemby? Sad.
Not sure what agent is telling him but i would think endorsement deals after 5 rings with Wemby would far overtake the lost money on a sign and trade with UT.