Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6y3honhec2jch2ryrbuyx5a5/bafkreig4xvotmiqcgspeywe6rezk3nn2ztl5ywfi2h5kcyvgs fjk67lmkm

[Winehole23]

The entire post-1973 petrodollar deal was simple: Gulf sells oil in dollars, America provides the security umbrella. The umbrella is on fire. The refineries are on fire. And according to an Omani journalist on BBC Arabic, Trump has sent an invoice: $5 trillion to continue the war, $2.5 trillion to stop it. The petrodollar was already the payment. This is double-billing for a service that is visibly, combustibly, failing.https://no01.substack.com/p/march-19-21-god-is-a-comedian



(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v-9k!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92793f5 1-e592-4a0d-9eb6-ecd1964b78af_56x54.png)

[Winehole23]

Infrared targeting

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/f-35a-lands-after-taking-fire-over-iran-pilot-stable/

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump is incredibly stupid. I mean fucking terminally stupid. His 48 hour threat to take out power plants hurting the general populace is fucking crazy. He wants regime change favorable to the US? YEA let's piss off EVERYONE. Their counterstrike to take out water systems in all the other mid east countries puts the blame squarely on the US.

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump is incredibly stupid. I mean fucking terminally stupid. His 48 hour threat to take out power plants hurting the general populace is fucking crazy. He wants regime change favorable to the US? YEA let's piss off EVERYONE. Their counterstrike to take out water systems in all the other mid east countries puts the blame squarely on the US.

[SnakeBoy]

2034883970815402300

Shane was right


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jrjwm0O1dDY

[Spurs Homer]

Still remember Hannitys head exploding and all his many nights of his stream of lies regarding obama….

”Obama backed up planes with PALLETS OF CASH to gift the Iranians!” “OBama gave IRAN- 6 BILLION of your taxpayer dollars!”

”6 BILLION!” “think of all the nukes they will now build and how many terrorist cells they will fund!”

Trump unsanctioned both RUSSIA AND IRAN!

FIVE TIMES the amount they accused obama of “giving iran” …and any person with a functioning brain would have understood that oBama was just releasing IRANS OWN MONEY- back to them…
while trump is gifting russia and iran billions and billions of your tax payer dollars…but you magats are just fine with that.

russia also helping iran to target aand kill americans and trump is ok with that- trump is actually rewarding putin for killing americans.

[BadMotorscooter]

Obozo gave Iran the money we confiscated from the Iran hostage/failed Jimmy Carter regime back to the terrorists. That is fact. We froze those funds for a reason and for decades. Obozo the muslim terrorist lover couldnt wait to give it back to Iran....and pedo democrats like Flake, Chump and Wine Ho....loved it.

[BadMotorscooter]

So again this is fact...every fucking President kept those funds frozen on both sides of the aisle...Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton....and then comes the muslim lover Obozo and releases the funds to the biggest terrorist loving country in the world....and pedo democrats are ok with that......lmao.

[Winehole23]

Donald Trump just gave Iran 10x that much money -- while we're at war with them

In Obama's case it was at least Iran's own money, and part of a deal to inspect Iran's enrichment program

[Winehole23]

breakfast taco

doesn't include Israel, not a ceasefire



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiajfomfalmleli7ltdnqe4e3i7nuz762k3ch6t6ryloe 6nkqwpl5i

[Winehole23]

maybe Trump is just jawboning the market


IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ttquxrl3f7ajiytcuiiyrehe/bafkreihkct366uhje3o4sv6dun4gd5a4jds3izmff2peccv2c zyyl77she

[ChumpDumper]

Obozo gave Iran the money we confiscated from the Iran hostage/failed Jimmy Carter regime back to the terrorists. That is fact. We froze those funds for a reason and for decades. Obozo the muslim terrorist lover couldnt wait to give it back to Iran....and pedo democrats like Flake, Chump and Wine Ho....loved it.


So again this is fact...every fucking President kept those funds frozen on both sides of the aisle...Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton....and then comes the muslim lover Obozo and releases the funds to the biggest terrorist loving country in the world....and pedo democrats are ok with that......lmao.

How much is your Trump spending of your money every day in his war of choice in Iran with the goal of a worse deal than younger, thinner, smarter and forever much more popular Obama made, MadToperStupor?

[SnakeBoy]

breakfast taco



I wonder how long it will take them to spin this into "TACO:cry"

3 weeks, the answer was 3 weeks

[ChumpDumper]

3 weeks, the answer was 3 weeks
3 weeks and you still haven't mustered the testosterone to say whether you are in favor of Trump's following Bibi into war with Iran.

Do you need more time?

[Winehole23]

3 weeks, the answer was 3 weeksoh is it all over now?

[Winehole23]

hard to say who is less credible, Trump or Iran



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2whlowi5jjjqrdrrj4lxh2lx/bafkreiekqpd3zuv7pvfo2l7yflkt24fmzpkvtsvxut5iywt35 ntui23bxi

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreibi6u7u4ady2tyx2zgetrbygcrkzgurjn37a2ifvkk2e fwimsrqry

[Winehole23]

lol


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:y3cfhqre6iuilnhwp23fgl2v/bafkreihdk3hmwc7ea6ykcdtbhhuextlyavx2y5mnblts6psz4 drjmyiqce

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreib2on7c7ek3yfguftyfhyredubdqjsrftpxk3fafez2n mldzyzi34

[Winehole23]

the pattern is strongly patterned

people should go to prison for this


https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108281637-1774280819322-Untitled.png?v=1774280823&vtcrop=y

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108281640-1774280840778-wtivolume.png?v=1774280843&vtcrop=y

[Winehole23]

delusional

in no way is Iran like the Delcy Rodriguez coup in Venezuela, Iran's isn't doing anything like this


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3ojlrw6rdx5as5pjjes5bpxp/bafkreie4byeskzogbddkdgistwjhwrhkiytkbvhbzhlicixhb h2wmixycmhttps://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/23/hes-a-hot-option-white-house-eyes-irans-parliament-speaker-as-potential-u-s-backed-leader-00840730

[Winehole23]

an open Strait of Hormuz is the previous status quo

hard to see how installing Iran as a tollkeeper is a win for Trump or the USA

the US position was more advantageous before we attacked Iran again, tbh

[SnakeBoy]

3 weeks and you still haven't mustered the testosterone to say whether you are in favor of Trump's following Bibi into war with Iran.

Do you need more time?

You already asked and answered for me

Are you unsatisfied with your answer?

[Winehole23]

Snake Boy ducks every time

[ChumpDumper]

You already asked and answered for me

Are you unsatisfied with your answer?

It's OK for you to be afraid of me.

I just don't know why I terrify you so.

Do you think I'm antifa?

[ChumpDumper]

Snake Boy ducks every time

Low T.

Absent T.

[Blake]

breakfast taco

doesn't include Israel, not a ceasefire

Lol "...witch will continue..."

What a dipshit

[Winehole23]

Donald Trump is the principal villain of the 21st century


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qmg6clxjapadv7r7obi22g47/bafkreifuvm4rj6e265wudujfamrbm5s6erwlykswg2ebjcxdo jumokteai


He shot himself in the foot. He wanted to invade a European Union country, Greenland, not long ago. And now, his old friends whom he didn’t consult, whom he scorned...And now he needs us? Frankly, he can go f—k himself.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidjpq7yayfz6pubxfneql23flktzijt3smf23qq4kcbp 2zunnqf4u

[Winehole23]

trading on national security secrets is treason, right?


https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SaF3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro gressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7ab174 e-3e60-4a56-af87-c9e2810e558d_1429x850.png

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ol5xm2zrcdekoeuk4q46jdyr/bafkreiawtqtmxnuwzv7wkzk22n5faks5zwljcq32fyto7tdwm tznckwzau

[Winehole23]

"this war is illegal" seems to be the emerging European consensus


German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Tuesday condemned U.S. President Donald Trump for going to war with Iran, calling the conflict a violation of international law and warning of a transatlantic rupture comparable to Germany’s break with Russia.


Steinmeier’s role in German politics is largely ceremonial, but his sharp criticism of the war and the U.S. president is likely to put additional pressure on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has stopped short of other European leaders in calling the war illegal even as he has grown increasingly critical of what he sees as the lack of an exit strategy on the part of the U.S. and Israel.


“This war violates international law,” said Steinmeier, who is a member of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which rules in a coalition with Merz’s conservatives and has been more critical of the ongoing attacks. “There is little doubt that, in any case, the justification of an imminent attack on the U.S. does not hold water,” he added.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-president-frank-walter-steinmeier-slams-us-donald-trump-iran-war-as-illegal/

[Winehole23]

Trump's declaration of talks seems to have been designed to massage markets until more US troops can be brought to bear on the situation


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreif5qcwmso6m7ekfy7n67nr4nyynqjwxw6ig6gid22d5q 62zopyj4q

[Winehole23]

sleepwalking into a quagmire

[Winehole23]

IEA CHIEF BIROL: THIS CRISIS WORSE THAN THE TWO OIL CRISES OF THE 1970S PUT TOGETHER

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ewwwkdaurqzrask2yjpuu3kn/bafkreieddq56aikb5cu4mtjx37vqnf7zecdbalcqeeyu5auur kfhfxpneyhtps://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-lays-out-trumps-conditions-for-ending-war-but-says-israel-fears-hell-instead-push-for-a-monthlong-ceasefire/

[Blake]

https://assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/i/2026/03/21/91968db7-15ec-4d0d-bff2-308c018cfe7b/5-how-iran-war-going.png

Who is this 43%?

Americans are so stupid

[Winehole23]

FinTwitter


Israeli Channel 12: A month-long ceasefire will be announced according to a mechanism being worked on by Wittkov and Kushner.

[Winehole23]

lol


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreievbpcooans2ymusypyv7mwgwacnoo2pnapldczhshbh cqrgkhkjq

[Winehole23]

Trump is apparently suing Iran for peace

Trump likes to screw counterparties, but he also likes to humiliate JD Vance

[SnakeBoy]

"this war is illegal" seems to be the emerging European consensus

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-president-frank-walter-steinmeier-slams-us-donald-trump-iran-war-as-illegal/

https://cdn.quotesgram.com/img/34/84/1496843705-tumblr_maknc7tMXi1qfrkf9o2_250.gif

[Winehole23]

Snake Boy with no topical take

[ChumpDumper]

Damn, snacks is just sad these days.

Completely neutered by his own stupidity.

[Winehole23]

Hegseth bragged about blowing up a random goat farm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/resizer/v2/ZK5N2FJUO5EJLPRCQMATYUEWIA.png?auth=d668c4ba56e1be 7d113e5b3143e1ed2421a1cb44637b74ac4db626eae398759f&width=800&height=971


Hegseth’s spokesman, Sean Parnell (https://x.com/SeanParnellASW/status/2030030098443948129), declared on X that the U.S. and Ecuador had completed a “successful operation against a narco-terrorist supply complex” that disrupted “operations and logistics.”



“This operation demonstrates the power of coordinated action and sends a clear message: narco-terrorist networks will not find refuge in our hemisphere,” Parnell wrote, invoking President Donald Trump’s so-called “Donroe Doctrine.”


But rather than a “narco-terrorist supply complex,” the March 6 strike appears to have hit a farm, killing chickens and other livestock, according to The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/americas/us-ecuador-drug-camp-bombing-dairy-farm.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VlA.IAXf.JXmzcnE xAYLX&smid=url-share), citing interviews with the farm’s owner, four of its workers, and residents in the remote farming village of San Martín.



And although Hegseth’s spokesman claimed that the Defense Department had “executed targeted action” in the operation at the request of Ecuador, four people with knowledge of the operation told the Times that U.S. troops had no direct involvement in the strike.


When reached for comment, Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson told the Daily Beast in a statement: “The Mar. 6, 2026 operation was conducted jointly with Ecuadorian forces and in coordination with the Government of Ecuador. Due to operations security, we will not discuss specific tactics or targeting details. All U.S. military actions are conducted through rigorous, multilayered targeting processes and each target is validated through established procedures. Cartel networks threaten the stability of our hemisphere, and the Department of War will continue working with committed partners to take decisive action against those who endanger our shared neighborhood.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-petes-drug-bombing-run-in-ecuador-gets-brutal-reality-check/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ihpglfqq3dapqjmwl2ntktil/bafkreiab2znvrzat67i2yokv4gqbtcsmi5c7dgk4gfdomdv5x 5o3qzcxtm

[CosmicCowboy]

15 point plan?

LMAO

Have you guys read it? There is no fucking way Iran buys off on that plan.

[Winehole23]

15 point plan?

LMAO

Have you guys read it? There is no fucking way Iran buys off on that plan.Trump wants credit for trying to stop the war he started

Thousands of US troops are headed to the Persian Gulf. Chances are Trump is going to use them

[Winehole23]

demand destruction


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiequdc653e334invbk4gvatzjdm7a7xdy4yjnxsvibwq bbvrrqbgi

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreifbmtpa73aybzu2myhbasvva76tnawiatke5cytc2hlg h47sfne3m

[Winehole23]

they're feeding him war porn and AI slop

it's a shame our president can't read


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:bdb6mpkg3hpmaye3mtp4w56m/bafkreid2l7sruadijtg4cje7hluzpfktuw53byade2bykw6hu usrvbgvje

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-gets-daily-video-montage-briefing-iran-war-rcna263912

[Winehole23]

fairly detailed rundown of strategy at the link


I am going to spend the next however many words working through what I think are the strategic implications of where we are, but that is my broad thesis: for the United States this war was an unwise gamble on extremely long odds; the gamble (that the regime would collapse swiftly) has already failed and as a result locked in essentially nothing but negative outcomes. Even with the regime were to collapse in the coming weeks or suddenly sue for peace, every likely outcome leaves the United States in a meaningfully worse strategic position than when it started.https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

[Winehole23]

is Taiwan important?


Taiwan, whose electrical grid relies on LNG for 40% of power generation, has an LNG emergency stockpile that will last around 11 days. Taiwan may be forced to ration power or reduce electricity to its industrial sector.-Politicohttps://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2026/03/24/iran-standoff-puts-taiwan-chips-at-risk-00842114

[Winehole23]

They're gonna make a deal. They did something yesterday that was amazing actually. They gave us a present, and it arrived today. It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I'm not gonna tell you what that present is but it was very significant prize


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiavpncfrphinscjxsgrfcai6mioy7fn3z2e3t7mmtzfe lplzhx47q

[CosmicCowboy]

Great read. pretty much what I have been thinking. Thanks for the link.

[Blake]

Hegseth bragged about blowing up a random goat farm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/resizer/v2/ZK5N2FJUO5EJLPRCQMATYUEWIA.png?auth=d668c4ba56e1be 7d113e5b3143e1ed2421a1cb44637b74ac4db626eae398759f&width=800&height=971





https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-petes-drug-bombing-run-in-ecuador-gets-brutal-reality-check/

His followers don't care. They will always applaud the effort of bombing the foreigner terrorist Boogeyman

[Blake]

they're feeding him war porn and AI slop

it's a shame our president can't read


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:bdb6mpkg3hpmaye3mtp4w56m/bafkreid2l7sruadijtg4cje7hluzpfktuw53byade2bykw6hu usrvbgvje

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-gets-daily-video-montage-briefing-iran-war-rcna263912

Even if he got the complete picture of the war, what difference would it make?

[TSA]

Trump is cooked -- yesterday he said countries were lining up to help

Not the right leader for this situation

Someone needs to take the keys away from grandpa

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreieup3a2fmhhfpfx3zyuqele2t3cicdamky456phechg2 ewia7hdl4




https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/2036818916094157235

https://x.com/RealBababanaras/status/2036809932826345481

Someone needs to take the keyboard away from grandpa winehole

[Blake]

https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/2036818916094157235

https://x.com/RealBababanaras/status/2036809932826345481

Someone needs to take the keyboard away from grandpa winehole

Do we need their help or not? You need to get off Trump's dick

[Ball Buster]

Matt Duss

Blaming Israel for America's forever wars is bad history that feeds antisemitism and undermines the existentially important project of reforming U.S. foreign policy. The main problem is in Washington, not in Jerusalem or anywhere else. @ForeignPolicy

Keaton Weiss

Getting really sick of this moronic argument.

Both things can be true:


1. America is a lawless, violent empire that commits heinous war crimes on the regular.


2. This particular Iran War is so suicidal and stupid that we could only be led into it by an irrational apocalyptic death cult, ie, the state of Israel.


To choose one explanation over the other is to obfuscate the fact that both are obviously true.

https://x.com/thatkeaton/status/2036808881091834353?s=61&t=CQfvV293J518QWnxG7pQDg

[TSA]

Do we need their help or not? You need to get off Trump's dick

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?

[Winehole23]

Do we need their help or not? You need to get off Trump's dickFox News and TSA are overstating this joint statement, which includes a number of countries who have also declared US/Israel hostilities illegal, though they don't in the doc linked below. 30 countries want the fighting to stop and Hormuz to reopen. That's about it.

The statement could lead to a UN authorization of force, we'll see.

As for India escorting its own ships, I hope that works for them. Doesn't mean much for everyone else.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026

[TSA]

Fox News and TSA are overstating this joint statement, which includes a number of countries who have also declared US/Israel hostilities illegal, though they don't in the doc linked below. 30 countries want the fighting to stop and Hormuz to reopen. That's about it.

The statement could lead to a UN authorization of force, we'll see.

As for India escorting its own ships, I hope that works for them. Doesn't mean much for everyone else.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026

Someone needs to take the keyboard away from grandpa winehole



UK and France Forming Multinational Effort for Strait of Hormuz

Additional details are coming out on the reported plan being led by the UK’s Royal Navy and France to develop a multinational effort to provide stability and reassurance to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK’s plan is, according to a report in The Times (London), well developed and has been shared with the Americans, while Reuters reports France will be conducting a multinational video conference this week with a broad group of 30 allies.

The efforts are proceeding despite the public criticisms of Donald Trump, who last week called the allies “cowards” and said NATO was a “paper tiger.” The Times (London) reports the UK’s chief of the defense staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, briefed France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, and Canada on Sunday, while the UK also sent a team of military planners to meet with U.S. Central Command in Florida.

UK to lead coalition to clear Strait of Hormuz – report

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uk-to-lead-coalition-to-clear-strait-of-hormuz-report/


Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?

[TSA]

Looks like you are stumped I'll hold your hand.


Do we need their help or not? You need to get off Trump's dick

https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/2036814523986849877

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?

[ChumpDumper]

Looks like you are stumped I'll hold your hand.



https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/2036814523986849877

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?*strait

We do.

Hope this helps.

Are you going to admit you fucked up on the location of your Little Crappy Ships or are you just going to pretend that never happened like everything else you've been wrong about?:lol

[velik_m]

Inside Trump's daily video montage briefing on the Iran war

WASHINGTON — Each day since the start of the war in Iran, U.S. military officials compile a video update for President Donald Trump that shows video of the biggest, most successful strikes on Iranian targets over the previous 48 hours, three current U.S. officials and a former U.S. official said.

The daily montage typically runs for about two minutes, sometimes longer, the officials said. One described each daily video as a series of clips of “stuff blowing up.”

The highlight reel of U.S. Central Command bombing Iranian equipment and military sites isn’t the only briefing Trump gets about the war. He’s also updated through conversations with top military and intelligence advisers, foreign leaders and news reports, the officials said.

But the video briefing is fueling concerns among some of Trump’s allies that he may not be receiving — or absorbing — the complete picture of the war, now in its fourth week, two of the current officials and the former official said.

...



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-gets-daily-video-montage-briefing-iran-war-rcna263912

[Winehole23]

Alex Ward is the WSJ natsec guy



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:j2kmiyhld5btzozgzwy3lc2m/bafkreiakvwfjgoo6lterluhwq6np23vqm4q6paacwpqj2uf32 cqm7xg5f4

[Winehole23]

Someone needs to take the keyboard away from grandpa winehole



UK and France Forming Multinational Effort for Strait of Hormuz

Additional details are coming out on the reported plan being led by the UK’s Royal Navy and France to develop a multinational effort to provide stability and reassurance to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK’s plan is, according to a report in The Times (London), well developed and has been shared with the Americans, while Reuters reports France will be conducting a multinational video conference this week with a broad group of 30 allies.

The efforts are proceeding despite the public criticisms of Donald Trump, who last week called the allies “cowards” and said NATO was a “paper tiger.” The Times (London) reports the UK’s chief of the defense staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, briefed France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, and Canada on Sunday, while the UK also sent a team of military planners to meet with U.S. Central Command in Florida.

UK to lead coalition to clear Strait of Hormuz – report

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/uk-to-lead-coalition-to-clear-strait-of-hormuz-report/


Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?There's no doubt the USA less exposed to the supply shock but we're not immune to it. If Taiwan has to ration electricity that has strategic implications for the USA and that's just processor chips

Republicans certainly aren't politically immune to inflation in an election year

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ks3gpa6ftoyaq7hmf6c4qx4c/bafkreidf2tzumziizltzcv2lkpqfdcjtklylmqwfqjxr6xn7z nemwed43u

[Blake]

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?

Of course we need it open. Your Trump was a stupid fuck that started this fucked up mess. You proclaimed he obliterated their nuclear weapons months ago, what are we doing here?

Do you like this war? Yes or no. Don't run from this easy question.

[Blake]

*strait

We do.

Hope this helps.

Are you going to admit you fucked up on the location of your Little Crappy Ships or are you just going to pretend that never happened like everything else you've been wrong about?:lol

OBLITERATED!!!*

[Winehole23]

the war exceeds the presidential attention span, Trump is ready to move on to other things

even without any strategic gains



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ewwwkdaurqzrask2yjpuu3kn/bafkreiaksbcu3ts3abmjv2wo5qgqoqmszxzvkfyucwgawprel ek5uht4ai
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ewwwkdaurqzrask2yjpuu3kn/bafkreidjl2c3svv2uw7c34b7mrjidw7mhrucxvbhxbpfzh3r6 zd5tudkuehttps://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-tells-aides-he-wants-speedy-end-to-iran-war-eb9f2b4b?st=6yFeHW

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o6oolrt2732yxmr7juqrd2xo/bafkreihnvzmcp4mtsvmaq2ovyxxgxanbq7gqykxlkwemos53s if6ghv7tq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihzawbotmix2ux3ikj5g7b75yj5weug3eixqqxvnjcr7 hytfghf64

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihjxrhi6jpo3mlnwfvbok56gvtefatnllcvkgvneozle skdyytjxq

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/inflation-pulse-from-ai-and-energy-will-last-decades-ifm-says

[Winehole23]

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/ap26083110581164.jpg?c=original&q=w_860,c_fill (https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/business/oil-prices-rise-trump-iran-intl)

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidyi7c5rgkxqe4fdx2bnovt7njndqgo7p3lw7nqnqxch u67zgr4ha

[ChumpDumper]

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?*strait (that will never get old)

:lol you're about to pay $6 per gallon and you're still stupid enough to ask this question.

[Winehole23]

Alex Young, the former head of MI6: “The reality is that the US underestimated the task and I think as of about two weeks ago lost the initiative to Iran,” the British ex-spy chief said in an Economist podcast this week.

[Winehole23]

sh!t will start hitting the fan in 8-10 days in East Asia, when the last oil tankers on the water get to their destinations


"This will be of particular concern in economies like Taiwan that rely on natural gas to power their industrial sectors, or Pakistan, which is almost completely dependent on Qatar for its LNG imports," she wrote in a note to clients.

Pakistan is already experiencing physical shortages as it's closer to the region and its last ships arrived over the past week or so. The country has imposed a four-day work week for government employees. It closed schools for two weeks. All in an effort to save energy.

The problem is compounded by two key factors. The first is that no one knows when the Strait of Hormuz may see even remotely normal shipments again.

The other is that, once that happens, it will take a long time to refill that air bubble in the system.

"Oil only travels at the speed of a tanker," said Johnston.

And tankers move slowly. Even if Hormuz became passable tomorrow, it would take weeks before those ships started showing up at ports around the world.

Oxford Economics expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain impassable until May. It expects to see "elevated geopolitical tensions" continuing to disrupt trade through the end of September.
That means the air bubble is orders of magnitude larger than the one we have today and the actual shortage of energy products in select countries is drawn out for months, not days or weeks.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-oil-strait-of-hormuz-9.7142143?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

[ChumpDumper]

TSA says Taiwan and Pakistan will put boots on the ground and invade Iranian islands.

We don’t need it!

[Blake]

the war exceeds the presidential attention span, Trump is ready to move on to other things

even without any strategic gains


https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-tells-aides-he-wants-speedy-end-to-iran-war-eb9f2b4b?st=6yFeHW

He gets bored very easily.

[Spurs Homer]

Isn't it pathetic?


https://youtu.be/Ix6HX9lVhuc?si=Z51Wqpk7FAfreKjk

[Blake]

the war exceeds the presidential attention span, Trump is ready to move on to other things

even without any strategic gains


https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-tells-aides-he-wants-speedy-end-to-iran-war-eb9f2b4b?st=6yFeHW

He gets bored very easily.

[velik_m]

Iran’s Attacks Force U.S. Troops to Work Remotely

...
Iran responded forcefully to the joint American and Israeli strikes, targeting not only U.S. bases but also embassies and oil and gas infrastructure throughout the region. With its supreme leader and dozens of other leaders killed, the Iranian regime has retaliated by launching hundreds of drones and missiles into neighboring countries and largely shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, making sure the war would be felt by people across the globe.

Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. Six U.S. service members were killed in a strike on Port Shuaiba that destroyed an Army tactical operations center. Iranian drones and missiles also targeted Ali Al Salem Air Base, damaging aircraft structures and injuring personnel, and Camp Buehring, damaging maintenance and fuel facilities.

In Qatar, Iran struck Al Udeid Air Base, the regional air headquarters of U.S. Central Command, damaging an early-warning radar system. In Bahrain, a one-way Iranian attack drone struck communications equipment at the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Iranian missiles and drones damaged communications equipment and several refueling tankers.

An Iranian-backed militia in Iraq launched a drone swarm attack on an upscale hotel in Erbil early in the war.

Iranian officials have even accused the U.S. military of using civilians as human shields by putting American troops in hotels.

...



https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/us/politics/iran-us-bases.html

[velik_m]

Drone Attack On Parked U.S. Army Black Hawk In Iraq A Harbinger Of What’s To Come (https://www.twz.com/air/drone-attack-on-parked-u-s-army-black-hawk-in-iraq-a-harbinger-of-whats-to-come)

Miscellanea: The War in Iran (https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/)

[SnakeBoy]

Literally the only lib who isn't rooting against their own country. Who would've guessed that a massive stroke was the only cure for the TDS virus

2037177579552059864

[ChumpDumper]

Literally the only lib who isn't rooting against their own country. Who would've guessed that a massive stroke was the only cure for the TDS virus

2037177579552059864
Does he have a cure for your cowardice, snacks?

[Winehole23]

There's no one more anti-American than Trump and Republicans, tbh

They hate America and are wrecking it with glee, at home and abroad

[Blake]

Literally the only lib who isn't rooting against their own country. Who would've guessed that a massive stroke was the only cure for the TDS virus

2037177579552059864

Why are you rooting for this war and for servicemen and women to get killed in the first place? Seriously for what? Name your reason you love this invasion. Will wait. Forever.

[Blake]

*strait (that will never get old)

:lol you're about to pay $6 per gallon and you're still stupid enough to ask this question.

Lol tsa

[SnakeBoy]

Wow, admitting you're rooting for Iran to win

That'll show them they should've loved Kamala the way I loved her :cry

SAD!

Funny part is Iran has already lost

[Blake]

Wow, admitting you're rooting for Iran to win

That'll show them they should've loved Kamala the way I loved her :cry

SAD!

Funny part is Iran has already lost

I'm rooting for us to leave. You'll never answer why we should be there. Never.

But hey, Trump promises some day gas will go back down. That's good enough for you tards every time.

[Winehole23]

Trump wants us to think Iran has requested (and has been granted) a favor by the USA

oodles of unsanctionable oil, basically $$$ straight into Iran's pocket

is Trump trying to bribe Iran?

:lol


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreibn35qvoo4vkwsg2fete3f2r7a7dxcamd6pgkl4sqndf aotbbuqw4

[Winehole23]

lol freedom of navigation going down with a fight from Trump, instead he implicitly accepts that Iran is the tollkeeper of Hormuz

which incidentally wasn't the case before Trump attacked Iran

[Winehole23]

MEDIATORS SAY IRAN HAS NOT ASKED FOR PAUSE ON ENERGY-SITE STRIKES - WSJ

[ChumpDumper]

Wow, admitting you're rooting for Iran to win

That'll show them they should've loved Kamala the way I loved her :cry

SAD!

Funny part is Iran has already lost

Funny part is no one here is rooting for Iran.

You're always afraid of imaginary enemies, just as you're told to be.

[Winehole23]

(confabulation)

[Ball Buster]

Iran displaced over 40,000 soldiers from the Persian Gulf as the New York Times finally admits Iran completely destroyed U.S. bases

Iran is decolonizing the Middle East and waging a historic war of resistance against the Epstein regime

https://x.com/socialistmma/status/2037281332850508043?s=61&t=CQfvV293J518QWnxG7pQDg

[Winehole23]

the war on Iran as conducted so far has some stratgeic problems


If the war in Ukraine (https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/winning-industrial-war-comparing-russia-europe-and-ukraine-2022-24) was a wake-up call (https://www.csis.org/analysis/defense-industrial-base-lessons-russia-ukraine-conflict-focus) for the Western defence industrial base (https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/05/heres-what-ukraine-needs-in-missiles-shells-and-troops.html), the first 16 days of the Iran conflict are a fire alarm signalling a crisis of endurance. The intense (https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-munitions-critical-minerals/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_ article=aXJhbi13YXItbXVuaXRpb25zLWNyaXRpY2FsLW1pbm VyYWxz&pid=PNI6oXabXq1ydw6) consumption of advanced munitions during Operation Epic Fury has revealed a critical vulnerability: a strategically ruinous cost-exchange ratio (https://www.epc.eu/publication/the-new-economics-of-warfare/) that the West’s industrial capacity is not prepared to sustain.While American and Israeli forces achieve some tactical success by striking (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/03/18/us-and-israel-strike-more-military-targets-plus-irans-leadership-repression-units-and-energy-sites-march-17-18-updates/) thousands of targets, the wider coalition is also downing drones and intercepting missiles by expending multi-million-dollar missiles that cost a fraction of the price. These tactics (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72300) have ‘astonished’ Ukrainian military advisors deployed to the region because they have observed coalition air defences ‘firing thoughtlessly.’

This asymmetry is rapidly depleting (https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/how-long-can-us-israel-afford-fight-the-iran-war-9zfglp6t6) high-end stockpiles. As shown in Table 1, our Payne Institute proprietary ledger tool tracked Iran war munition expenditures, which shows coalition forces expending 11,294 munitions in the first 16 days of the conflict, at a cost of approximately $26 billion.

After an initial salvo (https://www.fpri.org/article/2026/03/over-5000-munitions-shot-in-the-first-96-hours-of-the-iran-war/) of over 5,000 munitions in the first 96 hours, the conflict has settled into a grinding trial of attrition. While Iran’s daily missile (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/politics/iran-military-tactics.html) and drone (https://thebulletin.org/2026/03/the-iran-conflict-edges-the-world-closer-to-a-new-drone-arms-race/) attacks have fallen by 80-90% from their initial peak (https://iranstrike.com/), the sustained pace continues to drain the coalition’s most critical assets. Accordingly, our analysis has tracked that since day 5 and after, Iranian missile and drone attacks have averaged 33 and 94 strikes per day respectively.


The true strategic risk, however, is not the total expenditure but the uneven rate of depletion. Inventories of some munitions remain deep and scalable, while others – particularly long-range interceptors and precision strike weapons – are nearing exhaustion.depletion. Inventories of some munitions remain deep and scalable, while others – particularly long-range interceptors and precision strike weapons – are nearing exhaustion.

This dynamic marks the convergence of several established strategic logics. Bertrand Badie’s ‘impotence of power (https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1358070/bertrand-badie-weapons-are-powerless-against-rage-caused-by-suffering.html)’ captured the paradox of modern warfare, where American hyperpower (https://www.fayard.fr/livre/limpuissance-de-la-puissance-9782213621579/) of battlefield dominance fails to secure political outcomes. Barry Posen’s ‘Command of the Commons (https://www.jstor.org/stable/4137574)’ grounded US military primacy in its ability to project power across global sea, air and space. Yet, as Martin van Creveld warned (https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674900686) back in 1991 that advanced militaries become uniquely fragile when their power depends on complex, low-density systems that are difficult to replace under stress.

This emerging imperative demands a new strategic framework: ‘Command of the Reload.’ In a salvo-based environment, where ‘missile math (https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/missiles-weapons-stockpile-iran-us-war)’ governs the intensity of warfighting, the decisive advantage shifts to the actor that can sustain its defensive economy and replenish its most critical assets. Operation Epic Fury is the first test of this new reality, and its initial results are a stark warning.



The Anatomy of Endurance: Critical Categories and the Second-Theatre Tax

The core lesson from the first 16 days is that ‘critical’ is becoming a material condition. A munition becomes critical when its replenishment is gated by thin suppliers, long qualification cycles, or constrained components like rocket motors and guidance electronics. Prior to the conflict, multiple reports had already warned of a ‘deteriorating US defence industrial base (https://www.heritage.org/press/new-heritage-report-warns-deteriorating-us-defense-industrial-base-amid-most-hostile-global)’ and its ‘empty bins in a wartime environment (https://www.csis.org/analysis/empty-bins-wartime-environment-challenge-us-defense-industrial-base).’ The mass of the weapon is not the measure; a few kilograms of a constrained (https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/these-materials-could-cripple-americas-defense-industrial-base/) input, such as gallium, battery-chemicals or graphite, can stall the production of various weapons, while a warehouse full of steel is useless if a system (https://www.csis.org/analysis/energy-infrastructure-and-defense-industrial-base) is bottlenecked at the sub-tier (https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-primes-arent-the-real-bottleneck-in-u-s-weapons-production/).

This industrial fragility is exacerbated by both policy inertia and geopolitical realities. Even after the Trump Administration met (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-defense-giants-quadruple-production-exquisite-class-weapons-after-white-house-meeting) with defence industry executives on 6 March, our discussions with defence firms indicate that no production surge has occurred because no funded orders have been placed. Industry leaders are reluctant to increase production without firm commitments, having been ‘burned’ in the past by promises of funding that did not materialize. Compounding this, the sole American factory for high explosives, Holston Army Ammunition Plant, has not (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/holston-army-ammunition-plant-has-not-received-order-to-increase-production-amid-iran-war/ar-AA1YrHuo) received orders to increase production. Industrial base production is only made worse by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens upstream supply chains for vital materials like sulphur (https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-chokepoint-we-missed-sulfur-hormuz-and-the-threats-to-military-readiness/).

As Table 2 shows, over a dozen munition types have been expended by the coalition at a rate that appears to be unsustainable. Already, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger noted (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/19/rheinmetall-ceo-europe-u-s-middle-east-stockpiles-nearly-empty.html) on 19 March that global stockpiles (https://www.eurasiareview.com/21032026-rheinmetall-ceo-warns-global-air-defence-stockpiles-are-dwindling-due-to-iran-war/) are ‘empty or nearly empty’ and that if the war continues another month ‘we nearly have no missiles available’.


This analysis points to three watchlists that govern endurance: interceptors, long-range standoff strike, and the sensor-and-command layer. These categories determine whether bases stay protected, whether the coalition can strike at low risk, and whether the engagement picture remains coherent. Volume munitions are plentiful, but they do not substitute for defeating threats at scale, nor can they compensate for the loss of radar coverage that keeps interception economical. Given that Iran has damaged (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/at-least-12-us-allied-radar-systems-hit-by-iran-since-start-of-war/3871501) at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, the efficiency of interception decreases; using 10 (https://m.economictimes.com/news/new-updates/watch-iranian-missile-evades-more-than-10-israeli-interceptors-before-hitting-the-target-as-iron-dome-fails/articleshow/128938824.cms) or 11 (https://x.com/Indian_Bronson/status/2028238799902244955) interceptors for one missile or 8 (https://united24media.com/latest-news/eight-missile-for-one-drone-ukrainian-instructors-shocked-by-us-drone-defense-tactics-17085) patriot missiles for one drone becomes unsustainable.
As seen in Table 3, our analysis shows the magazine abyss for the coalition is coming soon.

What stands out most about Table 3 is that the US military is approximately a month, or less, away from running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors. Israel is in an even more precarious spot, with its Arrow interceptor missiles (https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1dyauacbg) likely to be completely expended by the end of March. While the war could proceed with other munitions, this implies accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more missile and drone ‘leakers’ damaging forces and infrastructure. The precariousness of this ‘empty bins’ issue could possibly explain why President Trump is already suggesting the ‘winding down (https://www.axios.com/2026/03/20/trump-winding-down-iran-war-hormuz-strait)‘ of the Iran war; it could take years to replace what was expended in only 16 days.

While the defence industrial base is producing most of these munitions at present, they are incredibly complex and difficult to surge, meaning it will likely take at least 5 years to replenish (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/785-million-later-us-navy-still-cant-reload-tomahawk-missile-launchers-bw-010926) the 500 plus Tomahawk missiles (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/is-us-defense-industrial-base-building-enough-tomahawk-missiles-hk-031526) already fired in the war. Worse, sourcing critical defence minerals (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01495933.2025.2609236), rare earths (https://mwi.westpoint.edu/minerals-magnets-and-military-capability-chinas-rare-earth-weaponization-should-be-a-wake-up-call/), and materials (https://www.sfa-oxford.com/knowledge-and-insights/critical-minerals-in-low-carbon-and-future-technologies/critical-minerals-in-defence-and-national-security/) to make the weapons and munitions is complicated by China. China controls most of the world’s gallium (https://www.csis.org/analysis/consequences-chinas-new-rare-earths-export-restrictions) and germanium (https://www.stimson.org/2025/chinas-germanium-and-gallium-export-restrictions-consequences-for-the-united-states/), and Beijing has imposed numerous mineral export controls (https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-export-control-catalog-2023/) since 2023, to prevent the US and its allies from acquiring these necessary inputs for the defence industrial base.

These dynamics create the strategic consequence Epic Fury makes hard to ignore: the second-theatre tax. Our analysis shows that the coalition can continue fighting Iran, but with increased risk to forces in-theatre. The bigger risk, however, is what continued fighting against Iran does to deterrence and defence elsewhere.


https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance

[Winehole23]

We really started a high tempo conflict with zero understanding of munitions replenishment or magazine depth or just basic industrial policy. Our leaders had a cartoonish idea of military capabilities.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreifcmpp32fc3pypzuf3ne7os5avew6hjbn7igja5k4vli wdaxqz2ty

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-27-at-6.20.45%E2%80%AFPM-1024x858.png

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-27-at-6.26.30%E2%80%AFPM-1024x994.png

[Winehole23]

Israeli chief of staff warns military will ‘collapse in on itself’ due to soldier shortage


The chief of staff of the Israeli military has warned that it will “collapse in on itself” due to growing demand and a shortfall of manpower as it fights multiple fronts.


“I am raising 10 red flags before you,” Eyal Zamir told a security cabinet meeting on Wednesday, according to Israeli media reports. He said that it wouldn’t be long before the military was unable to perform routine missions.


He said the military needs a “conscription law, a reserve duty law, and a law to extend mandatory service”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/26/iran-war-live-us-demands-tehran-accept-defeat-israel-pounds-lebanon?update=4437797

[velik_m]

That can't be true, Trump would never lie:


Trump Says “Wars Can Be Fought ‘Forever’” as US and Israel Unleash Terror in Iran

President Donald Trump ominously said on Monday that the U.S. has the weaponry to fight “forever,” as the administration’s refusal to state a definitive timeline or end goals for its war on Iran sparks worries of yet another prolonged, disastrous U.S. conflict in the Middle East.

In a post on Truth Social just before midnight on Tuesday, Trump said that the U.S. has a “virtually unlimited supply” of munitions — which reports have said is not true — that would allow the U.S. to continue fighting indefinitely.

“Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries finest arms!),” Trump wrote.
...



https://truthout.org/articles/trump-says-wars-can-be-fought-forever-as-us-israel-unleash-terror-in-iran/

[Winehole23]

AEP in the Tory Telegraph on the looming man-made food crisis


The war in the Gulf has hit the epicentre of global fertiliser production. It has shut off the supply of urea, ammonia and sulphur for 27 critical days in the agricultural calendar.


China, Russia and Turkey have now greatly compounded the shortage by imposing their own curbs on fertiliser exports in recent days. Close to 45pc of globally traded nitrogen is cut off, disrupted or at risk.


The crunch is happening just as the big farming belts of the northern hemisphere near the spring planting season and just as Australia approaches winter planting. It is the blackest of black swans.


Abdolreza Abbassian, the former head of commodities at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, said the markets did not yet seem to grasp the full gravity of what was already in the pipeline.


“It will be bad enough even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened tomorrow but if the war goes on for another month or more, it is going to be a really horrifying crisis unlike anything any of us have ever seen before,” he said.


A second crisis is building up in parallel. The two risk colliding in 2027. Atmospheric scientists expect an El Niño pattern in the South Pacific this year and next, leading to hotter weather, longer droughts and lower crop yields.


A team at Columbia University has warned the world could hit 1.7 degrees above pre-modern levels in 2027, a “regime shift” that smashes through the heat thresholds of wheat and corn, and increases the risk of multiple breadbasket failures. Could it go non-linear? We will find out.
Jean-Marie Paugam, from the World Trade Organization, said the fertiliser shock is a greater immediate threat than the oil and gas shock….


China is the world’s biggest producer of fertilisers by far, accounting for 15pc of global urea exports and 30pc of phosphate fertilisers. It tightened export curbs on most of its output last week, hitting the market at the worst possible moment.


Russia is the second largest. It followed suit this week, imposing a one-month ban (for now) on shipments of ammonium nitrate in order to meet “the needs of the domestic market during the spring field work period”.


Turkey has joined the stampede, even blocking the transport of urea.



America is scarcely in better shape. It imports a fifth of its applied nitrogen. The Fertilizer Institute says the US does produce its own phosphates, but it needs sulphur from the Gulf to make it possible.


American farmers were in a structural depression before this crisis because of spiralling input costs. They now face a 70pc jump in diesel prices. The fuel tracks the global market regardless of Donald Trump’s “energy
supremacy”.
A quarter of US farmers did not pre-buy their fertilisers. None will escape the long-tail consequences later this year.
https://archive.is/gSx3E#selection-2255.4-2255.76

[Winehole23]

US/Israel aggression has massively strengthened the hand of IRGC hardliners



The US and Israel have removed Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf (https://nypost.com/2026/03/23/us-news/us-negotiating-with-iranian-parliament-speaker-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-after-trump-was-coy-on-which-leader-was-in-charge-report/) from their hit list after mediators said that peace talks would be dead without them, according to multiple reports.

Ghalibaf and Araghchi were in Israel’s crosshairs when mediators from Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt warned the US that their deaths would likely sink any hopes of a diplomatic end to the war (https://nypost.com/2026/03/24/world-news/iran-worried-trumps-negotiations-could-be-trap-to-assassinate-one-of-the-regimes-last-surviving-political-leaders-report/).ttps://nypost.com/2026/03/26/world-news/us-removes-irans-top-two-negotiators-from-kill-list-for-now/

[TSA]

The Coercive Sequence: How Trump’s Iran War Actually Works
Why negotiation and war are part of the same strategy and what critics still fail to see

The Misreading of the War

In recent weeks, much of the media commentary on the Iran war has followed the same line. Trump, we are told, entered the conflict without a strategy. His goals are unclear. The Islamic Republic is still functioning. It is still firing missiles. Its leaders are still speaking in the language of defiance. Therefore, the argument goes, the United States must be failing. Much of the commentary has described the war as lacking a plan, marked by confusion over its aims, and driven by shifting goals. Some have gone further, arguing that even an American victory over Iran would be bad for the United States and for the wider world.

This reading is wrong. The war is not the absence of strategy. It is coercive diplomacy: terms first, pressure second, pause third, then renewed pressure from a stronger position.

To judge the war only by missile launches, angry speeches, and the continued movement of a battered regime is to miss the larger picture. What critics call a war without a strategy is, in fact, an attempt to end twenty years of failed policy.
The Logic of Coercion

For two decades, Washington tried different ways to stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advance. Some administrations leaned more on sanctions. Others leaned more on diplomacy. Some tried both. Yet through all of it, the Islamic Republic moved from zero enrichment to 60 percent. By June 2025, the IAEA said Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to that level, enough for multiple nuclear bombs if enriched further. At the same time, the IRGC’s missile stockpile grew, its range and destructive power increased, and those capabilities spread to proxies from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen. That was the result of the old approach.

The war has costs for the United States, politically and financially. But inaction was costlier. Washington began negotiating with Iran when enrichment was at 3 to 5 percent. It was still negotiating two decades later, after that level had reached 60 percent. By then, from a technical point of view, reaching weapons-grade material was no longer a scientific hurdle. It was a political decision. For years, diplomacy was politically and financially preferable to war. But there was no longer another twenty-year window. Iran was a nuclear-threshold state, shielded by a large missile arsenal and aligned with China and Russia. And Iran is not North Korea. It sits in the middle of the world’s most strategic region, close to major energy routes, trade corridors, and American allies. Its weaponisation would have carried far wider consequences. The price the United States is paying now is heavy. But it is still far less than the political, economic, and geopolitical price it would have paid for allowing the Islamic Republic to harden into an entrenched nuclear-threshold power.

The war has costs for the United States. But inaction was costlier.

Trump’s answer was different. He was no longer trying to manage the problem or secure another temporary arrangement. After returning to office in January 2025, he demanded rollback: an end to enrichment, limits on the missile programme, and the dismantling of the proxy network through which the Islamic Republic had built regional power. Tehran refused, as it had through two decades of diplomacy and negotiation. The result was a shift from bargaining to attrition. The regime began to lose, by force, the very instruments through which it had built deterrence and projected power. In that sense, coercion was producing the rollback that diplomacy had failed to secure.

The 12-day war began in June 2025, after diplomacy failed and Israel struck the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and military infrastructure. The attack came at the end of a two-month negotiating window set by Trump. It marked the shift from coercive diplomacy to open war.

Trump stopped the war after twelve days. That pause, too, was part of the strategy. The June war did not target the political leadership. It was meant to shock the regime and force a choice, while giving its political leaders time to assess the damage and decide whether saving the system now required giving up some of its strategic assets.

That did not happen. A few months later, negotiations resumed, but within the same coercive framework. They were not a fresh search for compromise. They were another attempt to force acceptance of the same core demands.

Ali Khamenei rejected those terms again and was killed in the opening moments of the second war. This followed the same logic. If Khamenei himself was the main barrier to surrender, then removing him could create space for others inside the system to accept what the Islamic Republic had long refused.

But the regime remained defiant. Seventeen days after Khamenei’s death, Ali Larijani, another senior political figure, was also killed. Now, Ghalibaf’s name is being floated as the man who could be pushed to accept those demands. But the deeper reality is that Ghalibaf is not the man calling the shots in Iran today. Nor was Larijani. After Khamenei, no one is fully in command. This, too, is a sign of a system struck at the centre and beginning to unravel.

The administration’s refusal to recognise Mojtaba Khamenei, along with Trump’s dismissal of him as “a lightweight” who would be “unacceptable” as Iran’s leader, is part of the same coercive sequence. By denying him legitimacy from the outset, Washington is floating names, testing possibilities, and searching for someone within the regime willing to sign. At the same time, the regime’s nuclear, missile, naval, and proxy assets, together with the wider military machinery on which its regional power depended, are being steadily degraded. The Islamic Republic still has a choice: relinquish what remains by agreement, or lose it by force.

Negotiation and war are not opposites. They are successive phases of the same campaign.

This is the point many critics miss. In Trump’s approach, negotiation and war are not opposites. They are successive phases of the same campaign. Negotiation presented the terms. Force raised the cost of refusal. The pause tested whether the strikes had altered the regime’s calculations. Negotiation then resumed from a position of greater pressure. That is not incoherence. It is strategy.
The End of the Old Status Quo

Whatever happens next, Trump has already changed the strategic picture. If this war ends with the fall of the Islamic Republic, he will have secured a historic victory. If the regime survives, it will survive in a diminished form. In less than a month, Washington has already achieved what twenty years of negotiations did not: an Islamic Republic with its nuclear and missile programmes sharply pushed back and its regional reach greatly reduced. Either way, the old status quo is gone.

Two analytical mistakes have made this harder to see.

The first is to mistake visible continuity for strength. In an earlier essay on the Islamic Republic’s collapse plan, I argued that a system can still fire missiles, repress, broadcast, and project fragments of normality after its centre has been hit. None of that proves it is strategically healthy.

The second is to act surprised by escalation. Before the war, I described the Islamic Republic’s logic as deterrence through escalation. Anyone who thought the regime would collapse through decapitation alone misunderstood it. The administration clearly did not make that mistake. That is why it deployed hundreds of tons of ammunition to the region before the war began. Continued missile fire does not prove that Trump has no strategy. It shows that the Islamic Republic has one too: absorb punishment, escalate where possible, and hope that fear, market shock, and regional pressure weaken American resolve before the regime is forced into real surrender.

The very states Iran hoped to intimidate are moving in the opposite direction.

But that strategy has limits. The more the regime threatens shipping, attacks infrastructure, and uses missiles, drones, and proxies as tools of pressure, the more it convinces its neighbours that their own trade, investment, and long-term stability cannot safely coexist with the Islamic Republic as it is. Tehran’s calculation was that regional havoc would frighten neighbouring Arab states into pressing Washington to stop the war. Instead, the logic has begun to reverse. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have declared Iranian diplomatic personnel persona non grata, while the UAE has closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrawn its diplomatic mission. The very states Iran hoped to intimidate are moving in the opposite direction, concluding that its capacity for disruption must be reduced, not accommodated.

So the central argument is simple. Much of the prevailing media reading is wrong because it mistakes visible continuity for strategic success and escalation for surprise. It sees a regime still speaking, still firing, still standing in some form, and concludes that Washington must have no plan. But the plan is visible. Trump appears to have concluded that sanctions, diplomacy, delay, and partial restriction did not stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advance. They only slowed it while the programme moved closer to threshold status. His answer was not to manage the problem more carefully, but to try to end it.

One may say this strategy is dangerous. One may say it is too blunt, too risky, or too ambitious. But it is not absent. The question is no longer whether Trump has a strategy. The question is whether the Islamic Republic, under the greatest pressure it has faced in decades, will accept strategic retreat before the cost of refusal becomes existential.

With or without another war, the regime’s days are numbered

The war may continue until the regime falls. It may also pause again, to give Tehran one more chance to accept the terms. But if the regime persists on the same path and tries to rebuild what it has lost, a third war will be hard to avoid. In the meantime, it will face crippling sanctions and a far more hostile region after firing hundreds of missiles and drones at neighbouring states. They will not forget this episode. For two decades, those same states were Tehran’s economic lifeline, tolerating the Islamic Republic’s elaborate sanctions-busting networks and the thousands of front companies through which it kept trade alive. That lifeline is now fraying. The old status quo is gone. With or without another war, the regime’s days are numbered. That is the strategic shift many analysts still fail to see.

https://parpanchi.substack.com/p/the-coercive-sequence-how-trumps
Mehdi Parpanchi
@parpanchi
Writing on Iran: power, repression, protest, and regional strategy. Executive Editor, Iran International TV. Former Iran Service Director at RFE/RL’s Radio Farda; former lead presenter at BBC Persian.

[Winehole23]

^^^ that's just a long way of saying "we've already won"

[Blake]

the war on Iran as conducted so far has some stratgeic problems

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance

There was no strategy to begin with

[Blake]

The Coercive Sequence: How Trump’s Iran War Actually Works
Why negotiation and war are part of the same strategy and what critics still fail to see

The Misreading of the War

In recent weeks, much of the media commentary on the Iran war has followed the same line. Trump, we are told, entered the conflict without a strategy. His goals are unclear. The Islamic Republic is still functioning. It is still firing missiles. Its leaders are still speaking in the language of defiance. Therefore, the argument goes, the United States must be failing. Much of the commentary has described the war as lacking a plan, marked by confusion over its aims, and driven by shifting goals. Some have gone further, arguing that even an American victory over Iran would be bad for the United States and for the wider world.

This reading is wrong. The war is not the absence of strategy. It is coercive diplomacy: terms first, pressure second, pause third, then renewed pressure from a stronger position.

To judge the war only by missile launches, angry speeches, and the continued movement of a battered regime is to miss the larger picture. What critics call a war without a strategy is, in fact, an attempt to end twenty years of failed policy.
The Logic of Coercion

For two decades, Washington tried different ways to stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advance. Some administrations leaned more on sanctions. Others leaned more on diplomacy. Some tried both. Yet through all of it, the Islamic Republic moved from zero enrichment to 60 percent. By June 2025, the IAEA said Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to that level, enough for multiple nuclear bombs if enriched further. At the same time, the IRGC’s missile stockpile grew, its range and destructive power increased, and those capabilities spread to proxies from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen. That was the result of the old approach.

The war has costs for the United States, politically and financially. But inaction was costlier. Washington began negotiating with Iran when enrichment was at 3 to 5 percent. It was still negotiating two decades later, after that level had reached 60 percent. By then, from a technical point of view, reaching weapons-grade material was no longer a scientific hurdle. It was a political decision. For years, diplomacy was politically and financially preferable to war. But there was no longer another twenty-year window. Iran was a nuclear-threshold state, shielded by a large missile arsenal and aligned with China and Russia. And Iran is not North Korea. It sits in the middle of the world’s most strategic region, close to major energy routes, trade corridors, and American allies. Its weaponisation would have carried far wider consequences. The price the United States is paying now is heavy. But it is still far less than the political, economic, and geopolitical price it would have paid for allowing the Islamic Republic to harden into an entrenched nuclear-threshold power.

The war has costs for the United States. But inaction was costlier.

Trump’s answer was different. He was no longer trying to manage the problem or secure another temporary arrangement. After returning to office in January 2025, he demanded rollback: an end to enrichment, limits on the missile programme, and the dismantling of the proxy network through which the Islamic Republic had built regional power. Tehran refused, as it had through two decades of diplomacy and negotiation. The result was a shift from bargaining to attrition. The regime began to lose, by force, the very instruments through which it had built deterrence and projected power. In that sense, coercion was producing the rollback that diplomacy had failed to secure.

The 12-day war began in June 2025, after diplomacy failed and Israel struck the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and military infrastructure. The attack came at the end of a two-month negotiating window set by Trump. It marked the shift from coercive diplomacy to open war.

Trump stopped the war after twelve days. That pause, too, was part of the strategy. The June war did not target the political leadership. It was meant to shock the regime and force a choice, while giving its political leaders time to assess the damage and decide whether saving the system now required giving up some of its strategic assets.

That did not happen. A few months later, negotiations resumed, but within the same coercive framework. They were not a fresh search for compromise. They were another attempt to force acceptance of the same core demands.

Ali Khamenei rejected those terms again and was killed in the opening moments of the second war. This followed the same logic. If Khamenei himself was the main barrier to surrender, then removing him could create space for others inside the system to accept what the Islamic Republic had long refused.

But the regime remained defiant. Seventeen days after Khamenei’s death, Ali Larijani, another senior political figure, was also killed. Now, Ghalibaf’s name is being floated as the man who could be pushed to accept those demands. But the deeper reality is that Ghalibaf is not the man calling the shots in Iran today. Nor was Larijani. After Khamenei, no one is fully in command. This, too, is a sign of a system struck at the centre and beginning to unravel.

The administration’s refusal to recognise Mojtaba Khamenei, along with Trump’s dismissal of him as “a lightweight” who would be “unacceptable” as Iran’s leader, is part of the same coercive sequence. By denying him legitimacy from the outset, Washington is floating names, testing possibilities, and searching for someone within the regime willing to sign. At the same time, the regime’s nuclear, missile, naval, and proxy assets, together with the wider military machinery on which its regional power depended, are being steadily degraded. The Islamic Republic still has a choice: relinquish what remains by agreement, or lose it by force.

Negotiation and war are not opposites. They are successive phases of the same campaign.

This is the point many critics miss. In Trump’s approach, negotiation and war are not opposites. They are successive phases of the same campaign. Negotiation presented the terms. Force raised the cost of refusal. The pause tested whether the strikes had altered the regime’s calculations. Negotiation then resumed from a position of greater pressure. That is not incoherence. It is strategy.
The End of the Old Status Quo

Whatever happens next, Trump has already changed the strategic picture. If this war ends with the fall of the Islamic Republic, he will have secured a historic victory. If the regime survives, it will survive in a diminished form. In less than a month, Washington has already achieved what twenty years of negotiations did not: an Islamic Republic with its nuclear and missile programmes sharply pushed back and its regional reach greatly reduced. Either way, the old status quo is gone.

Two analytical mistakes have made this harder to see.

The first is to mistake visible continuity for strength. In an earlier essay on the Islamic Republic’s collapse plan, I argued that a system can still fire missiles, repress, broadcast, and project fragments of normality after its centre has been hit. None of that proves it is strategically healthy.

The second is to act surprised by escalation. Before the war, I described the Islamic Republic’s logic as deterrence through escalation. Anyone who thought the regime would collapse through decapitation alone misunderstood it. The administration clearly did not make that mistake. That is why it deployed hundreds of tons of ammunition to the region before the war began. Continued missile fire does not prove that Trump has no strategy. It shows that the Islamic Republic has one too: absorb punishment, escalate where possible, and hope that fear, market shock, and regional pressure weaken American resolve before the regime is forced into real surrender.

The very states Iran hoped to intimidate are moving in the opposite direction.

But that strategy has limits. The more the regime threatens shipping, attacks infrastructure, and uses missiles, drones, and proxies as tools of pressure, the more it convinces its neighbours that their own trade, investment, and long-term stability cannot safely coexist with the Islamic Republic as it is. Tehran’s calculation was that regional havoc would frighten neighbouring Arab states into pressing Washington to stop the war. Instead, the logic has begun to reverse. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have declared Iranian diplomatic personnel persona non grata, while the UAE has closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrawn its diplomatic mission. The very states Iran hoped to intimidate are moving in the opposite direction, concluding that its capacity for disruption must be reduced, not accommodated.

So the central argument is simple. Much of the prevailing media reading is wrong because it mistakes visible continuity for strategic success and escalation for surprise. It sees a regime still speaking, still firing, still standing in some form, and concludes that Washington must have no plan. But the plan is visible. Trump appears to have concluded that sanctions, diplomacy, delay, and partial restriction did not stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advance. They only slowed it while the programme moved closer to threshold status. His answer was not to manage the problem more carefully, but to try to end it.

One may say this strategy is dangerous. One may say it is too blunt, too risky, or too ambitious. But it is not absent. The question is no longer whether Trump has a strategy. The question is whether the Islamic Republic, under the greatest pressure it has faced in decades, will accept strategic retreat before the cost of refusal becomes existential.

With or without another war, the regime’s days are numbered

The war may continue until the regime falls. It may also pause again, to give Tehran one more chance to accept the terms. But if the regime persists on the same path and tries to rebuild what it has lost, a third war will be hard to avoid. In the meantime, it will face crippling sanctions and a far more hostile region after firing hundreds of missiles and drones at neighbouring states. They will not forget this episode. For two decades, those same states were Tehran’s economic lifeline, tolerating the Islamic Republic’s elaborate sanctions-busting networks and the thousands of front companies through which it kept trade alive. That lifeline is now fraying. The old status quo is gone. With or without another war, the regime’s days are numbered. That is the strategic shift many analysts still fail to see.

https://parpanchi.substack.com/p/the-coercive-sequence-how-trumps
Mehdi Parpanchi
@parpanchi
Writing on Iran: power, repression, protest, and regional strategy. Executive Editor, Iran International TV. Former Iran Service Director at RFE/RL’s Radio Farda; former lead presenter at BBC Persian.

OBLITERATED!!*

- TSA six months ago

[ChumpDumper]

The Coercive Sequence: How Trump’s Iran War Actually Works
Why negotiation and war are part of the same strategy and what critics still fail to see

The Misreading of the War

In recent weeks, much of the media commentary on the Iran war has followed the same line. Trump, we are told, entered the conflict without a strategy. His goals are unclear. The Islamic Republic is still functioning. It is still firing missiles. Its leaders are still speaking in the language of defiance. Therefore, the argument goes, the United States must be failing. Much of the commentary has described the war as lacking a plan, marked by confusion over its aims, and driven by shifting goals. Some have gone further, arguing that even an American victory over Iran would be bad for the United States and for the wider world.

This reading is wrong. The war is not the absence of strategy. It is coercive diplomacy: terms first, pressure second, pause third, then renewed pressure from a stronger position.

To judge the war only by missile launches, angry speeches, and the continued movement of a battered regime is to miss the larger picture. What critics call a war without a strategy is, in fact, an attempt to end twenty years of failed policy.
The Logic of Coercion

For two decades, Washington tried different ways to stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advance. Some administrations leaned more on sanctions. Others leaned more on diplomacy. Some tried both. Yet through all of it, the Islamic Republic moved from zero enrichment to 60 percent. By June 2025, the IAEA said Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to that level, enough for multiple nuclear bombs if enriched further. At the same time, the IRGC’s missile stockpile grew, its range and destructive power increased, and those capabilities spread to proxies from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen. That was the result of the old approach.

The war has costs for the United States, politically and financially. But inaction was costlier. Washington began negotiating with Iran when enrichment was at 3 to 5 percent. It was still negotiating two decades later, after that level had reached 60 percent. By then, from a technical point of view, reaching weapons-grade material was no longer a scientific hurdle. It was a political decision. For years, diplomacy was politically and financially preferable to war. But there was no longer another twenty-year window. Iran was a nuclear-threshold state, shielded by a large missile arsenal and aligned with China and Russia. And Iran is not North Korea. It sits in the middle of the world’s most strategic region, close to major energy routes, trade corridors, and American allies. Its weaponisation would have carried far wider consequences. The price the United States is paying now is heavy. But it is still far less than the political, economic, and geopolitical price it would have paid for allowing the Islamic Republic to harden into an entrenched nuclear-threshold power.

The war has costs for the United States. But inaction was costlier.

Trump’s answer was different. He was no longer trying to manage the problem or secure another temporary arrangement. After returning to office in January 2025, he demanded rollback: an end to enrichment, limits on the missile programme, and the dismantling of the proxy network through which the Islamic Republic had built regional power. Tehran refused, as it had through two decades of diplomacy and negotiation. The result was a shift from bargaining to attrition. The regime began to lose, by force, the very instruments through which it had built deterrence and projected power. In that sense, coercion was producing the rollback that diplomacy had failed to secure.

The 12-day war began in June 2025, after diplomacy failed and Israel struck the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and military infrastructure. The attack came at the end of a two-month negotiating window set by Trump. It marked the shift from coercive diplomacy to open war.

Trump stopped the war after twelve days. That pause, too, was part of the strategy. The June war did not target the political leadership. It was meant to shock the regime and force a choice, while giving its political leaders time to assess the damage and decide whether saving the system now required giving up some of its strategic assets.

That did not happen. A few months later, negotiations resumed, but within the same coercive framework. They were not a fresh search for compromise. They were another attempt to force acceptance of the same core demands.

Ali Khamenei rejected those terms again and was killed in the opening moments of the second war. This followed the same logic. If Khamenei himself was the main barrier to surrender, then removing him could create space for others inside the system to accept what the Islamic Republic had long refused.

But the regime remained defiant. Seventeen days after Khamenei’s death, Ali Larijani, another senior political figure, was also killed. Now, Ghalibaf’s name is being floated as the man who could be pushed to accept those demands. But the deeper reality is that Ghalibaf is not the man calling the shots in Iran today. Nor was Larijani. After Khamenei, no one is fully in command. This, too, is a sign of a system struck at the centre and beginning to unravel.

The administration’s refusal to recognise Mojtaba Khamenei, along with Trump’s dismissal of him as “a lightweight” who would be “unacceptable” as Iran’s leader, is part of the same coercive sequence. By denying him legitimacy from the outset, Washington is floating names, testing possibilities, and searching for someone within the regime willing to sign. At the same time, the regime’s nuclear, missile, naval, and proxy assets, together with the wider military machinery on which its regional power depended, are being steadily degraded. The Islamic Republic still has a choice: relinquish what remains by agreement, or lose it by force.

Negotiation and war are not opposites. They are successive phases of the same campaign.

This is the point many critics miss. In Trump’s approach, negotiation and war are not opposites. They are successive phases of the same campaign. Negotiation presented the terms. Force raised the cost of refusal. The pause tested whether the strikes had altered the regime’s calculations. Negotiation then resumed from a position of greater pressure. That is not incoherence. It is strategy.
The End of the Old Status Quo

Whatever happens next, Trump has already changed the strategic picture. If this war ends with the fall of the Islamic Republic, he will have secured a historic victory. If the regime survives, it will survive in a diminished form. In less than a month, Washington has already achieved what twenty years of negotiations did not: an Islamic Republic with its nuclear and missile programmes sharply pushed back and its regional reach greatly reduced. Either way, the old status quo is gone.

Two analytical mistakes have made this harder to see.

The first is to mistake visible continuity for strength. In an earlier essay on the Islamic Republic’s collapse plan, I argued that a system can still fire missiles, repress, broadcast, and project fragments of normality after its centre has been hit. None of that proves it is strategically healthy.

The second is to act surprised by escalation. Before the war, I described the Islamic Republic’s logic as deterrence through escalation. Anyone who thought the regime would collapse through decapitation alone misunderstood it. The administration clearly did not make that mistake. That is why it deployed hundreds of tons of ammunition to the region before the war began. Continued missile fire does not prove that Trump has no strategy. It shows that the Islamic Republic has one too: absorb punishment, escalate where possible, and hope that fear, market shock, and regional pressure weaken American resolve before the regime is forced into real surrender.

The very states Iran hoped to intimidate are moving in the opposite direction.

But that strategy has limits. The more the regime threatens shipping, attacks infrastructure, and uses missiles, drones, and proxies as tools of pressure, the more it convinces its neighbours that their own trade, investment, and long-term stability cannot safely coexist with the Islamic Republic as it is. Tehran’s calculation was that regional havoc would frighten neighbouring Arab states into pressing Washington to stop the war. Instead, the logic has begun to reverse. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have declared Iranian diplomatic personnel persona non grata, while the UAE has closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrawn its diplomatic mission. The very states Iran hoped to intimidate are moving in the opposite direction, concluding that its capacity for disruption must be reduced, not accommodated.

So the central argument is simple. Much of the prevailing media reading is wrong because it mistakes visible continuity for strategic success and escalation for surprise. It sees a regime still speaking, still firing, still standing in some form, and concludes that Washington must have no plan. But the plan is visible. Trump appears to have concluded that sanctions, diplomacy, delay, and partial restriction did not stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advance. They only slowed it while the programme moved closer to threshold status. His answer was not to manage the problem more carefully, but to try to end it.

One may say this strategy is dangerous. One may say it is too blunt, too risky, or too ambitious. But it is not absent. The question is no longer whether Trump has a strategy. The question is whether the Islamic Republic, under the greatest pressure it has faced in decades, will accept strategic retreat before the cost of refusal becomes existential.

With or without another war, the regime’s days are numbered

The war may continue until the regime falls. It may also pause again, to give Tehran one more chance to accept the terms. But if the regime persists on the same path and tries to rebuild what it has lost, a third war will be hard to avoid. In the meantime, it will face crippling sanctions and a far more hostile region after firing hundreds of missiles and drones at neighbouring states. They will not forget this episode. For two decades, those same states were Tehran’s economic lifeline, tolerating the Islamic Republic’s elaborate sanctions-busting networks and the thousands of front companies through which it kept trade alive. That lifeline is now fraying. The old status quo is gone. With or without another war, the regime’s days are numbered. That is the strategic shift many analysts still fail to see.

https://parpanchi.substack.com/p/the-coercive-sequence-how-trumps
Mehdi Parpanchi
@parpanchi
Writing on Iran: power, repression, protest, and regional strategy. Executive Editor, Iran International TV. Former Iran Service Director at RFE/RL’s Radio Farda; former lead presenter at BBC Persian.

But we don't need the "straight" or regime change, right?

Tell us why we are there and about to put boots on the ground.

Be specific

[ChumpDumper]

Is Trump going to choose a leader of a Muslim religion?

How does this work?

[TSA]

OBLITERATED!!*

- TSA six months ago

There was no strategy to begin with!!*

-Blake one minute before quoting the strategy to begin with

:rollin

[TSA]

OBLITERATED!!*

- TSA six months ago

There was no strategy to begin with!!*

-Blake one minute before quoting the strategy to begin with

:rollin

[ChumpDumper]

What happens next, TSA?

You're the expert.

After all, you gave us the precise location of our LCS vessels with only a 3000 nautical mile margin of error.

[Winehole23]

The Houthis will release an "important statement" in the coming hours, according to the Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah.

[Blake]

There was no strategy to begin with!!*

-Blake one minute before quoting the strategy to begin with

:rollin


There's no strategy other than just bomb them and see what happens. Just because you post a long text wall doesn't mean it's not just a mental gymnastic Trump tard love opinion piece. You believe everything positive you're told to believe about Trump's crazy moves.

You'll also never admit you were wrong about parroting the Trump tard party line that Iran's nuclear program was OBLITERATED!*...... among many other things you're so wrong about.

[Blake]

What happens next, TSA?

You're the expert.

After all, you gave us the precise location of our LCS vessels with only a 3000 nautical mile margin of error.

STRATEGY!*

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreidbiuh7hzq7253edqvmnhoye6pia3tszbk5rnqwmiers 5p7k6ckhu

[Spurs Homer]

Protecting pedophile/child rapists such as trump and his sick friends- sure is expensive as fuck …just release the files and save the planet from all this destruction already…

[Winehole23]

Rubio admits the US strategic blunder to the G7, tells them it's their problem now

Iran wasn't the tollkeeper of Hormuz before we attacked them



“I did describe to our allies, however, that immediately after this thing ends, and we’re done with our objectives, the immediate challenge we’re going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous for the world. And it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it.”

“
But these countries have a lot at stake, not just the G7 countries, but countries in Asia and all over the world have a lot at stake and should contribute greatly to that effort, to ensure that neither the Strait of Hormuz or, frankly, any international waterways should ever be something that’s controlled or tolled by a nation-state or by a terroristic government like the one that exists in Iran today and that clerical, radical clerical regime.”
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/rubio-iran-own-the-strait-now-and-thats-a-huge-bummer

[ChumpDumper]

Depends on the tolls tbh. Countries are already paying it. That's their plan. What is Trump's plan?

[Winehole23]

There was no strategy to begin withwould be just like Trump to do it based on a vibe

[Blake]

Rubio admits the US strategic blunder to the G7, tells them it's their problem now

Iran wasn't the tollkeeper of Hormuz before we attacked them



“https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/rubio-iran-own-the-strait-now-and-thats-a-huge-bummer

WE DID OUR PART NOW DO YOURS, NATO

[Blake]

would be just like Trump to do it based on a vibe

Or a "look over here and not at the Epstein files" moment. I'm not going to put anything past this felon.

[Winehole23]

what's an Epstein files?

[Blake]

"......You have to be convinced that this is the right thing to do, particularly now that we’re on the eve of potentially the insertion of American combat troops,” Bannon continued. “Your sons, daughters, granddaughters, grandsons, could be on Kharg Island or be holding a beachhead down by the Strait of Hormuz.”

Trump has considered taking Kharg Island, Iran’s economic lifeline where it holds 90 percent of its crude exports. Taking over the island would require ground troops, something experts have said would be risky and likely result in more casualties, leaving the option of negotiating with Iran unlikely....."

https://thehill.com/homenews/5804953-bannon-cpac-us-iran-conflict/

You Trump tards are pro- American death.

[Winehole23]

Depends on the tolls tbh. Countries are already paying it. That's their plan. What is Trump's plan?I don't think anybody knows. I don't think Trump knows or has ever known.

They're all just faking their way through it, hoping that's good enough.

[Winehole23]

hey, where's the Congressional briefing?

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:e4tqkvdjxqapupkv6rnb6agp/bafkreifdqifpgx52wqekmqu3owzhlpb4wbaueqszsu2efjwvq jquu5kuui

[Winehole23]

is Trump hiding the ball?

[Winehole23]

over 300 injured so far in Epic Fury, high-value assets damaged at Prince Sultan base


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ewqz7rmstki4s2ooegeybjxa/bafkreihc36vmzlzszmsxh7rive3xasahn3gyp3g4vsleswlp5 674s2u4kyhttps://www.airandspaceforces.com/us-forces-saudi-arabia-iran-attack/

[Winehole23]

why was an AWACS on the ground where Iran can hit it?

is that normal in wartime?

[Winehole23]

"very seriously injured" in DOD speak reportedly means likely to die within three days

"seriously injured" basically means life changing, requiring extensive medical care

[Winehole23]

(the argument that trump is making war so we can have peace for 50 years rings hollow in the present)

[Winehole23]

(in the present Trump brings us nothing but chaos, coercion and violence)

[Winehole23]

Republicans need to get wise

Trump is wrecking their electability


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36kbybzhwfi6gmpoapwiclix/bafkreibhtz2n476wveoty44blgcd6dqos2d4xzed63cmuoh7e cd5z5iiwm

[Winehole23]

do it for the USA, Republicans

[Winehole23]

American Suez Crisis

[velik_m]

why was an AWACS on the ground where Iran can hit it?

is that normal in wartime?

US army is not used to fighting someone armed with more than AK-47s. They got complacent.

[velik_m]

Israeli military says it identified a launch of a missile from Yemen

March 28 (Reuters) - The Israeli military said early on Saturday ​it had identified a launch of #a missile from Yemen, the first time a missile has launched from Yemen since the ​war erupted.

The launch comes hours ​after Iran-aligned Houthis said on Friday they ⁠were prepared to act if what ​the group called an escalation against Iran ​and the "axis of resistance" continued, but did not say what form any intervention would take.

The ​Houthis entry to the war raises ​the prospects of a broader regional confrontation , particularly given #the ⁠Houthis' ability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red ​Sea, which ​they ⁠had done in support of Hamas in Gaza after October ​7, 2023.

...



https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-says-it-identified-launch-missile-yemen-2026-03-28/


Yemen's Houthis confirm launching attack on Israel for first time in current war

CAIRO, March 28 (Reuters) - Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis confirmed on ​Saturday that they had #launched an attack on Israel for the first ​time during the current ​Israeli-U.S. war against Iran, ⁠marking their entry ​to the conflict and raising ​the prospects of a broader regional confrontation.
...



https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-confirm-launching-attack-israel-first-time-current-war-2026-03-28/

[velik_m]

Israel strikes near Pakistani Ambassador's residence and embassy itself in Tehran

Explosions rocked areas near the Embassy of Pakistan and the residence of Pakistan's ambassador in Tehran on Thursday, as the Iranian capital continued to endure sustained aerial bombardment now in its 27th day.

All Pakistani diplomats were confirmed safe but shaken by the blasts, which struck while Islamabad, alongside Türkiye and Egypt, is actively engaged in shuttle diplomacy aimed at brokering a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

...



https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/israel-strikes-near-pakistani-ambassadors-residence-and-embassy-itself-in-tehran-3216953?s=1

[SnakeBoy]

Rubio admits the US strategic blunder to the G7, tells them it's their problem now

Iran wasn't the tollkeeper of Hormuz before we attacked them



“https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/rubio-iran-own-the-strait-now-and-thats-a-huge-bummer

Blunder? That would be a dream scenario.

A final nail in the coffin of the neoliberal world order that Clinton created

[ChumpDumper]

Blunder? That would be a dream scenario.
What is your dream scenario for your new world order, snacks?

You never actually talk about anything except other posters here.

[SnakeBoy]

The new new world order is the old world order dummy

[ChumpDumper]

The new new world order is the old world order dummy

What is your dream scenario for your new old world order, snacks?

Please explain yourself for once.

Just say what it is.

Be brave. Your daddy would want you to be brave.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibmk6hwpcvef3sjhtammzx6yphyan6ypjwtuf6p54bnr z3foocvne

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zi6x5ppoqiomymqr7s47em4o/bafkreigg73ejy4yjmzqg7j7qlflt2sgnpl5yfiiwsntqym2ec 3u2qsa6ri

[Winehole23]

for weeks

[Blake]

Trump tards don't care that American soldiers will needlessly die soon. All they get is thoughts and prayers and thanks for your service free meal from a fast food joint.

[Winehole23]

Trump tards don't care that American soldiers will needlessly die soon. All they get is thoughts and prayers and thanks for your service free meal from a fast food joint.oh I think Pete Hegseth cares, I think he sees war with Iran as his one big shot

[ChumpDumper]

Are they seriously just going to take Kharg and then be sitting ducks?

[Winehole23]

activating Reserve Marines

does not tend to quieten the nerves


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nb6uhiglzowsdcbgwv2itwa7/bafkreidrfjql7txijjlrky7w5qgnzapt3tmo3jrcyzzoguwns jz3bpsdky

[Winehole23]

Are they seriously just going to take Kharg and then be sitting ducks?who knows?

they probably have an AI summary they treat as authoritative

I bet they have a bunch of silly ideas

[ChumpDumper]

Neither side wants to destroy the infrastructure on Kharg so our WARFIGHTERS will go in with their hands tied behind their backs and Iran will just send asswads of drones to kill Americans.

We'll be tired of winning.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao you gotta be fucking kidding me

2037961368356208769

https://x.com/Bencjacobs/status/2037961368356208769

[BadMotorscooter]

Demotards backing Iran as usual....what a suprise.

[ChumpDumper]

Demotards backing Iran as usual....what a suprise.

Nope. You're the stupidest motherfucker to ever post on this board as usual...what a surprise.

Tell us what Trump's exit plan here is. Give us a reason to root for your God as he leaves.

[velik_m]

How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out

...
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC the market is facing a “short-term period of disruption.” The price is worth paying in order to acheive the long-term benefits of defanging Iran, he said.

But the price is very high for an oil and gas industry whose assets are now exposed to attack. Conoco is “pleading” with Trump administration for military “protection around the US-owned assets in Qatar and hundreds of millions of dollars of investment,” Lance said.

Iran has forced the closure of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar with drone attacks. Conoco is a major investor in that facility.

“We’ve had to evacuate a number of our staff, our non-essential staff,” Lance said. “That’s been a been a chore over the last couple of weeks.”

...
“There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world and through the system that I don’t think are fully priced into the futures curves on oil,” Wirth said.

It will take three to four months for Gulf Arab countries to fully restore production because they have had to close down oil wells due to the Strait’s closure, Kuwait Petroleum CEO al-Sabah said.

The oil price “floor probably has to rise,” said Conoco’s Lance, indicating that prices are unlikely to fall to pre-war levels anytime soon despite the Trump administration’s reassurances.

Cheniere, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, is doing its best to meet demand from Asian countries that are heavily dependent on natural gas imports from Qatar, CEO Jack Fusco said. But the company is already running at peak production, Fusco said.

“We’re going to try to get as many molecules as we can to those countries in Asia that really need it,” the CEO said. “But it’s a 28-day journey from the Gulf Coast to anywhere in Asia, so it’s not going to happen overnight.”

...
Iran is waging total war while the U.S. is conducting a limited campaign from the air, said Gen. Jim Mattis, Trump’s defense secretary during his first term. The goal of regime change in Tehran is delusional, he said. The conflict is at a stalemate with one side now likely to escalate further, Mattis said.

The U.S. Navy will struggle to protect the shipping lanes from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz and out into the Gulf of Oman, he said. The Iranians have hundreds of miles of sea lanes they can attack and the U.S. would need to protect, he said.

The war could break the economic model developed by the Gulf Arab nations. Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and potentially Saudi Arabia could see a 30% drop in their annualized gross domestic product, Sankey said.

The U.S. did not consult its Gulf Arab allies before going to war and Trump will be unable to just declare victory and walk away, Mattis said. The Iranians have a vote on when the war ends, he said.

“I don’t think we can just walk away from it,” Mattis said. “We’re in a tough spot.”



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/28/iran-war-oil-companies-price-gas-diesel-strait-hormuz.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreid73cjjx73isnuhyg6mq5ftdvqubvzwgj3wgmstx3zlz z6mvrfqfa

[Winehole23]

Nope. You're the stupidest motherfucker to ever post on this board as usual...what a surprise.

Tell us what Trump's exit plan here is. Give us a reason to root for your God as he leaves.they did this during the Iraq War that they're all against now: call everyone questioning the war "objectively pro-terrorist"

by 2006 that was already a losing position

[Winehole23]

we reportedly have about 30 E-3s worldwide total, about half of those are operational

it for sure looks "damaged" -- front part not connected to the tail part

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:qxudeqrdbv6676vzjssrhllo/bafkreiboofnoqm4jtvqa466whqgn2de2ecawa67g4sdtflgkz jvpcbiw2u

[Winehole23]

have a nice day, president grandpa




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:f55jz6yqwvf66okru6rtmkhw/bafkreicjgdy5jrcscqkii5n6dr3ze2dhtxtmjgp2hs3wgm6ym jjrqim33y


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:f55jz6yqwvf66okru6rtmkhw/bafkreihtlqtjiqyvbmfidxj4si4bgkflvgbhfz23pzsdjzvdr gd4ums66y

[ChumpDumper]

they did this during the Iraq War that they're all against now: call everyone questioning the war "objectively pro-terrorist"

by 2006 that was already a losing position

Yeah, they're at cope level Freedom Fries.

[Blake]

activating Reserve Marines

does not tend to quieten the nerves

"Are your family's affairs in order?"

Seriously, fuck this administration for killing these young men and women for no good reason.

[Blake]

they did this during the Iraq War that they're all against now: call everyone questioning the war "objectively pro-terrorist"

by 2006 that was already a losing position

WHY DO YOU HATE AMERICA AND ROOT FOR IRAN

[Winehole23]

I'm rooting for Americans against our corrupt, incompetent and insane government

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36kbybzhwfi6gmpoapwiclix/bafkreibhtz2n476wveoty44blgcd6dqos2d4xzed63cmuoh7e cd5z5iiwm

[SnakeBoy]

Wow, ya'll are pathetic with your support of the terrorist regime

The Ayatollah had rights :cry

Sorry bout your beloved Ayatollah. He thought he could FA with the Daddy King, he found out.

[Blake]

Wow, ya'll are pathetic with your support of the terrorist regime

The Ayatollah had rights :cry

Sorry bout your beloved Ayatollah. He thought he could FA with the Daddy King, he found out.

Trump tards are stupid. You're stupid.

[Winehole23]

Inarticulate, yes

[ChumpDumper]

Wow, ya'll are pathetic with your support of the terrorist regime

The Ayatollah had rights :cry

Sorry bout your beloved Ayatollah. He thought he could FA with the Daddy King, he found out.


Yeah, they're at cope level Freedom Fries.

Cope harder snacks. You didn't support Trump's decision to follow Bibi into war either. You can't pretend you do now.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreiagrck4zq6kveclcvve5i5a3wvkfsqh2pmwprm7fs3qe e6e4rxz4i

[ChumpDumper]

So nothing about nukes or opening the strait.

2038596812630593961

https://x.com/StateDept/status/2038596812630593961

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Mission_Accomplished_banner_on_the_USS_Abraham_Lin coln_%28CVN-72%29_%281%29.jpg

Bring 'em home!

[Blake]

How about a clear reason for the war that we can write down

[Winehole23]

"I broke it, you bought it"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xknwf4m33f2w7btedcui3o42/bafkreibqqqygfiqme4o5pbhxh2p3vlt3bxwrcbyckmslym44j 5cui4cljm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:y77n77kdqzhbg647blkfypyr/bafkreic4bqaggpxlvfjpbwu7c6jouwikylch3jsqtkokj2ndk qdnaqdela

[CosmicCowboy]

"I broke it, you bought it"

Trump is delusional. Their shit is getting fucked up by Iran's missiles and drones because the US started it. They should be sending US the bill.

[Blake]

"I broke it, you bought it"

Kinda like bringing a keg that nobody asked for to a party you weren't invited to and then asking for people to pitch in after it's empty.

[SnakeBoy]

2038680072161272066

Hopefully the end of NATO happens. Probably one of the best political fallouts that will come from Iran. Would make this military action a terrific value.

[SnakeBoy]

Trump is delusional. Their shit is getting fucked up by Iran's missiles and drones because the US started it. They should be sending US the bill.

Rooting for Iran smh...TDS claims another victim

[Blake]

Rooting for Iran smh...TDS claims another victim

Snakes still rooting for American soldiers to die in a foreign land for no reason.

"Terrific value!!"

[Winehole23]

criticizing Donald Trump's bird-brained leadership isn't rooting for Iran, it's a realistic acknowledgment of US limitations

[Winehole23]

ending up with the Strait of Hormuz controlled and tolled by Iran would be an amazing strategic defeat for Trump, for Republicans and for the USA

if Trump/Israel hadn't attacked Iran under cover of negotiations -- again -- we wouldn't be in this situation

[ChumpDumper]

2038680072161272066

Hopefully the end of NATO happens. Probably one of the best political fallouts that will come from Iran. Would make this military action a terrific value.

How?

Trump will never save the US money.

All you do when you're in power is explode the debt.

[Blake]

How?

Trump will never save the US money.

All you do when you're in power is explode the debt.

LIB TEARS =TOTALLY WORTH IT. SAME WITH $7 GAS

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiesha45so5ahivddnz6phfvq2ua4s56bui7ubxl7fn7g avzbtbqlm

[SnakeBoy]

:tu

[ChumpDumper]

:tu Persian TACO to go with his Cuban TACO.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibsurs3k4fzqw2ft5wbez2vviaie6vtixmkzxcjewkw4 rthqeztom

[Blake]

:tu

So what did we win if Trump backs out without opening Hormuz?

Is tsa able to get this news while in Korea?

[Winehole23]

:tu

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:s6j27rxb3ic2rxw73ixgqv2p/bafkreibrlge6qwdfopio25yz6d3rcnhjzeipgom6cb7iy24nw 7ddk3frsm

[SnakeBoy]

Jackpot

2038783773089636378

[Winehole23]

:tu Persian TACO to go with his Cuban TACO.Trump royally screwing the Gulf States would be an interesting choice

[velik_m]

2038680072161272066

Hopefully the end of NATO happens. Probably one of the best political fallouts that will come from Iran. Would make this military action a terrific value.

Only one NATO country invoked NATO article 5, which means i guess so far NATO only served them.

[Winehole23]

Spain and France not allowing US overflights, not sure why this would be necessary for a war the US has already won



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lm4eq2cftwbnrmzkzowigpt7/bafkreiakwwduxjhtkg27bcvusbxdqxcesgud4oau4chg2iu6d ztepqnfsi

[Winehole23]

America First means America alone. more or less


The US attempted to send several Iran-bound bombers to an Italian air base without prior authorisation and was refused permission by the Italian government while the aircraft were in flight.

[Winehole23]

everything but the hard part is done, Mr. President

lol creating a mess and running away from it

if this result holds, Trump just lost to Iran in record time



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7upoypvlxudsiv4pzbi5jtwf/bafkreiasz5n2mbtbyjbrzlui5kr7t46uvnhum6cbiugsavis3 zclgsbs54

[Winehole23]

Allies we’ve been publicly threatening and extorting for the past year are refusing to help with a war they weren’t told about and aren’t obligated by treaty to participate in

[Winehole23]

Ukraine would like to help, are they allowed to?



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:t2adwtqzvx3wweasdka2i2ox/bafkreiczx6xqrrklgjasvfjrj6jc577z34ehcleogpvjalhrr wawm4sfxm

[CosmicCowboy]

How embarrasing. Trumps Truth Social posts are just SO fucked up.

[Winehole23]

until 2018, we had all that

Trump ripped up the deal, Iran started enriching towards weapons strength and now here we are

https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2025/03/25/USAT/82649356007-afp-2203022902.jpg?width=1320&height=880&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp


Hegseth: "We would much prefer to get a deal. If Iran was willing to relinquish material they have and ambitions they have, open the strait, great. That's the goal. We don't want to have to do more militarily than we have to."

[Winehole23]

here's some of the 5D global strategery being imputed to Trump to cope with his flailing incompetence


2029587778871443881

[Winehole23]

How embarrasing. Trumps Truth Social posts are just SO fucked up.too bad others treat it like a hymnal


https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2025/01/1200/675/file-31.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

Hegseth: "The president was clear this morning in his Truth that there are countries around the world who ought to be prepared to step up on this critical waterway as well. Last time I checked there was supposed to be a big bad Royal Navy that could be prepared to do things like that."

[Blake]

here's some of the 5D global strategery being imputed to Trump to cope with his flailing incompetence


2029587778871443881

These tards really don't want to admit that Trump is just a buffoon who doesn't know wtf he's doing. Ever.

[Winehole23]

trying to use a geostrategic blunder to shake down Europe for a few bucks should go well



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:nzcjpprq6fwcdnwpc45e3gsd/bafkreihcly2kczjmtwpbyusrakrbkowv3km4pmu23rru3gv3y vmbyyn5x4

[velik_m]

Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz


American taxpayers could be forgiven if recent events have left them wondering why the largest and most expensive Navy in the world is sitting well outside the Strait of Hormuz, watching powerlessly as the Iranians decide which ships they will allow to transit the waterway.

After all, they must wonder, why can’t the Navy simply blast the Iranians away and re-open the strait, sending life and the global economy back to normal?

Alas, the days of omnipotent U.S. sea power as a power projection instrument close to well defended shorelines are coming to an end. This change raises questions about the future of navies and the wisdom of investment in these extremely expensive instruments of national power. A brief review of American naval history shows how this shift came about — and casts doubt on whether Washington is ready for the future of naval war.

...

Navy sailors flocked into ports in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar until late in the decade, when American intelligence detected active and ongoing construction work on Iran’s Abu Musa and Tunbs islands just inside the Strait of Hormuz, as well as on the coastline of Bandar Abbas, which border the strait. Upon closer examination, planners realized that Iran was installing anti-ship missiles into concrete and steel-reinforced bunkers, giving it the ability to easily target any ships passing near the strait. By the end of the 1990s, the Navy began reducing the transit of its carriers through the strait, and today those carriers are steaming well offshore outside the range of Iranian missiles.

The era of shore-based anti-access and area denial had arrived in the Persian Gulf. The balance between shore- and sea-based weapons had shifted in favor of shore-based weapons — particularly missiles. No more Yankee Stations were possible in areas where enemies had invested in arsenals of cheap, accurate cruise and ballistic missiles.

Iran’s steps to secure the Strait of Hormuz did not go unnoticed. The Chinese immediately grasped the implications of what Iran had accomplished and set about constructing its own “anti-Navy” system designed around missiles that could target U.S. Navy vessels that presumably would come to Taiwan’s aid in case of any cross-strait attack from the Chinese mainland. Today, China boasts various families of accurate ship-killing systems, notably the DF “Dong Feng” series of missiles that can track and target U.S. ships thousands of miles away while underway at sea. Many wargames today conclusively demonstrate that the United States Navy would take serious and perhaps unacceptable losses from these missiles in any war against China.

...

Lessons of the Ukraine-Russia war are relevant. Ukraine successfully drove the Russian Black Sea Fleet from its shores through attacks by missiles and unmanned systems. Iran has integrated various of these systems into its tool kit in the strait. These systems aren’t necessarily sophisticated, but their mere existence introduces significant risks into U.S. Navy operations in and around the strait that can’t be discounted for mission planning purposes.

This is why the U.S. Navy hasn’t attempted to force its way through the strait. Simply put, Iran is threatening extremely expensive and manpower-intensive U.S. ships with weapons that are a fraction of the cost in exchange. Moreover, the United States can’t easily replace destroyed or damaged vessels due to the well-documented decline of the shipbuilding industrial base.

If U.S. Navy ships can’t force their way through the strait, then some may ask whether the military could do so with the help of ground forces, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested.

But the reality is that such operations with relatively small numbers of troops cannot decisively alter the long-term strategic circumstances. Iran can threaten maritime operations in the strait relatively easily and cheaply through their missile, drone, and maritime unmanned attack systems from areas well back from the strait. There is no decisive military solution to this problem given Iran’s geography and military capabilities.

...


https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-strait-of-hormuz/

[Blake]

OBLITERATED* !!!

[ChumpDumper]

here's some of the 5D global strategery being imputed to Trump to cope with his flailing incompetence


2029587778871443881Two leaders with nuclear weapons chose to start a war to distract from their various scandals and crimes.

My theory is more easily explained and believed.

[ChumpDumper]

Who could've seen this coming?

2038952287612076267

https://x.com/samstein/status/2038952287612076267

[Blake]

Two leaders with nuclear weapons chose to start a war to distract from their various scandals and crimes.

My theory is more easily explained and believed.

I'm absolutely on board with that. It would explain why seemingly everyday he comes up with a new emergency, whether it's illegals, Greenland Venezuela, or Iran. Anything so we don't talk Epstein.

[velik_m]

Poland says ‘no’ to sending Patriot missile launcher to help US fight Iran

Polish daily Rzeczpospolita reported on Tuesday that the United States had informally sounded out Warsaw about deploying one of its Patriot batteries to the Middle East, where American forces are in an increasing missile war with Iran.

Shortly after publication, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz dismissed the claims, posting on X: “Our Patriot batteries and their armament are used to protect Polish skies and NATO's eastern flank.

“Nothing is changing in this regard, and we are not planning to relocate them anywhere!

“Our allies know full well and understand how important the tasks we have here are.

“Poland's security is an absolute priority.”

Poland operates two Patriot batteries which reached full operational readiness in late 2025.
...


https://tvpworld.com/92385076/polands-defense-minister-says-no-to-us-request-for-polish-patriots

[SnakeBoy]

America First means America alone. more or less

Damn straight :tu

and there's nothing you can do about it

[ChumpDumper]

Damn straight :tu

and there's nothing you can do about it
You can't even say you support Trump's decision to follow Bibi into war with Iran.

There's nothing you can do about that.:tu

[Blake]

Damn straight :tu

and there's nothing you can do about it

Why do you want to pay more for stuff when you don't have to? A lot more.

[ChumpDumper]

Why do you want to pay more for stuff when you don't have to? A lot more.

His wife has chickens that make smartphones in her backyard.

[Winehole23]

Damn straight :tu

and there's nothing you can do about itwell sure there is, we can vote your asses out of power

[SnakeBoy]

2038939688946311321

:tu

[SnakeBoy]

well sure there is, we can vote your asses out of power

and then what?

continuity not change:cry

[ChumpDumper]

2038939688946311321

:tu
:lmao Strait TACO

What a little crying bitch you enabled.

[Winehole23]

and then what?

continuity not change:crythen we'll see what, I bet it's noticeably different

[SnakeBoy]

then we'll see what, I bet it's noticeably different

You think your party might raise the minimum wage by one penny?

[Winehole23]

You think your party might raise the minimum wage by one penny?no idea

politics is going to be different from now on, there's not a status quo ante to return to

y'all own the bad status quo, Snake Boy

[ChumpDumper]

You think your party might raise the minimum wage by one penny?

:lol what a swerve

[SnakeBoy]

:lol what a swerve

It's the simplest thing possible that your party could do. None of you will even say you think they will do it. No chance of getting you to voice what you think they'll do on geopolitics.

[ChumpDumper]

It's the simplest thing possible that your party could do.Is it?

Explain.


None of you will even say you think they will do it.I simply don't know. It would be good to have some stats on who is still getting paid federal minimum wage.


No chance of getting you to voice what you think they'll do on geopolitics.:lmao you're trying to shut down all geopolitical discussion in a geopolitics thread after refusing to voice what you personally think of the geopolitical event in the OP.

How did you become such a fucking coward on an anonymous message board, dude?

Serious question.

[Winehole23]

it'll take decades to repair the damage y'all have already done, if it can even be done

MAGA radical-extremism is very radical and very extreme

[ChumpDumper]

Right off the bat, a new Democratic administration would be less cunty to Canada and Europe.

That was easy.

Geopolitics!

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ntjqkq7dnryedboki5u3ey5c/bafkreielp6kznmnwx637g5yy2hmdqnw4iiartmu6llamsdiqa o4znxeo2e

[SnakeBoy]

it'll take decades to repair the damage y'all have already done, if it can even be done


It can't be done...Trump already won as I've been telling you, there are no do-overs.

[Winehole23]

who said anything about a do-over?

[SnakeBoy]

Right off the bat, a new Democratic administration would be less cunty to Canada and Europe.

That was easy.

Geopolitics!

Polite words lol

[ChumpDumper]

Polite words lolAs opposed to your tuff words?

lol

[ChumpDumper]

It can't be done...CHINA already won as I've been telling you, there are no do-overs.

[SnakeBoy]

lol scared of China now

Typical lib...always scared of the world

muh hegemony :cry

[Blake]

You think your party might raise the minimum wage by one penny?

Diesel won't be $5 a gallon

[ChumpDumper]

lol scared of China now

Typical lib...always scared of the world

muh hegemony :cry
[he typed on his Chinese phone]

You're scared of trans children.

And you can't even explain why.

Typical mindless drone Trumptard.

[SnakeBoy]

You're scared of trans children.

And you can't even explain why.

Typical mindless drone Trumptard.

Why do you love to mutilate chidren?

[ChumpDumper]

Why do you love to mutilate chidren?Typical lying Trumptard lashing out when cornered.

You're just all weird and panicky these days. I get it.

[Blake]

It can't be done...Trump already won as I've been telling you, there are no do-overs.

Snakes will always call this dumpster fire president a winner. I think he thinks he's trolling at times but in the end, he's really not.

[Blake]

Why do you love to mutilate chidren?

Why do you love dead American soldiers?

[ChumpDumper]

Snakes will always call this dumpster fire president a winner. I think he thinks he's trolling at times but in the end, he's really not.His personal self image and worth is terminally connected to Trump.

I don't know why he did this to himself but here we are.

[Blake]

lol scared of China now

Typical lib...always scared of the world

muh hegemony :cry

Rofl it's your team that's constantly scared of the foreign terrorist Boogeyman that you cheer for border walls, ICE and Iran invasions.

You're seriously a stupid fuck.

[Blake]

His personal self image and worth is terminally connected to Trump.

I don't know why he did this to himself but here we are.

He doesn't realize it's okay to not keep doubling down on your losses. Even Cosmic Cowboy has finally cut his losses on Trump. Sort of.

[Winehole23]

:lmao



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreienn4zrer5lqblfdq22mijehpn2vnuz2j67q6x3znyjn jbxum55tm

[Blake]

The Grifter in Chief telling companies to play fair is beyond rich.

[ChumpDumper]

He doesn't realize it's okay to not keep doubling down on your losses. Even Cosmic Cowboy has finally cut his losses on Trump. Sort of.Falling for the most obvious con man in US history who was openly and famously grifting, cheating and lying for half a century isn't something that one's ego can recover from easily.

Somehow these morons thought enabling him even more had to be the answer to all their personal grievances.

Or they just gave up on life and are too chickenshit to just end themselves.

Hard to tell.

[SnakeBoy]

Snakes will always call this dumpster fire president a winner. I think he thinks he's trolling at times but in the end, he's really not.

Orange man came down the escalator and won. A decade later your party has no agenda and no leader and he is your Daddy King.

He won period...to say otherwise is copium

The most amazing thing is he was the opponent you wanted and actively helped become the nominee, mighty Jeb Bush was who you feared :lol

[Blake]

Orange man came down the escalator and won. A decade later your party has no agenda and no leader and he is your Daddy King.

He won period...to say otherwise is copium

The most amazing thing is he was the opponent you wanted and actively helped become the nominee, mighty Jeb Bush was who you feared :lol

Why are you still scoreboarding your Trump tard felon team victory from 2024 in the year 2026? Why are you having fun watching citizens die and your gas, grocery, health and mortgage bills go way up?

Sorry that you can't troll your way out of that. I guess 2024 is all you'll ever have here.