Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

treaty law is still law of the land


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:zm64jthu5rlho6qjjwem4qq7/bafkreibgn5zzdbtwwcctkbpdcl3qvprqwaepffjl6nrmzqmqe zcindkgiq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibnppbpf3y7ibtiovuyuisr6ukhe5piczcazfgfzbnjp 7bvxk4equ

[Blake]

Lol "I think"

[Winehole23]

killed scores of schoolchildren because of incompetence/obliviousness at best

but maybe it was intentional



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dzezcmpb3fhcpns4n4xm4ur5/bafkreigtlohcxiu3wcwbqgdrt53zgsgbdqultnokutlwefdcw b2b7rvhgmhttps://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/politics/us-commanders-intelligence-iran-school

[Winehole23]

The Dow closed above 53,000 yesterday for the first time ever. This morning, chips are selling off globally and Iran reportedly hit another tanker: Samsung stock fell nearly 7% in South Korea despite a 19-fold surge in quarterly operating profit, dragging tech indexes lower worldwide

[Winehole23]

Saudis haven't been letting us use their airspace since May

Trump/Bibi attacking Iran fucked up regional security not necesssarily to the advantage of the GCC


U.S. Central Command was caught by surprise when officials from Saudi Arabia said American forces could not use the kingdom’s air space for the mission...THE AMERICANS HAD NOT CONSULTED THE SAUDS.


And more and more, the Saudis see the U.S. government as unreliable and even on occasion a risk to Gulf Arab nations (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/world/middleeast/gulf-changed-forever-iran-war.html).www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u... (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/trump-saudi-crown-prince-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.wFA.Ux5J.B3ZEYqJ bwhJB&smid=tw-share)

[Winehole23]

seems Iran attacking GCC countries is back on the menu


Several explosions rang out across Bahrain, an AFP correspondent said, after authorities sounded air raid sirens to warn of an attack.



“Loud” blasts were heard in the north of the island state, the correspondent said, in the first incident since Bahrain reported intercepting Iranian drones and missiles on June 28.

[Blake]

"OBLITERATED!!"

[Winehole23]

* SPANISH PM'S OFFICE STATEMENT ON TRUMP ORDERING TO CUT OFF TRADE: SPAIN IS TREATING THESE STATEMENTS AS BUSINESS AS USUAL

[Winehole23]

Trump's crappy deal with Iran was crappy, too much ambiguity


This isn’t a return to full-scale war, but it isn’t peace either. It is a new phase in the conflict: the fight to control Hormuz. The United States already lost the fight Trump started; it failed to achieve his declared goal of the Iranian regime’s unconditional surrender, or, barring that, Tehran’s acceptance of stringent nuclear restrictions. Now the conflict is over whether Iran controls Hormuz and can charge fees, or if the U.S. can restore the pre-war status quo, with ships transiting freely.https://www.ms.now/opinion/us-iran-war-strait-hormuz-strikes

[Winehole23]

Oman breaking neutrality


Oman’s Foreign Ministry has released a statement condemning Iran’s attacks on sites in Bahrain and Kuwait as well as on two commercial ships from Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Strait of Hormuz.


The statement affirmed Oman’s solidarity with its neighbouring countries and said increasing military tensions in the region threaten Oman’s safety and security. It also said the attacks threaten global trade networks and energy supplies.


Oman urged all parties involved to exercise “self-control”, refrain from escalating the situation and return to diplomacy.

[Winehole23]

looks like Saudi Arabia allowed the US to use its airspace for the most recent US strikes

2074735090756628743

[Winehole23]

2074734014271779038

[Winehole23]

GCC tankers hit

2074800560100798560

[Winehole23]

but is there still a ceasefire?


The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States, mediated by Pakistan, is officially canceled.-Tasnim

[Winehole23]

saber-rattling


The U.S. military is ready to restart the blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports if ordered to do so, a U.S. official said.-Fox News

[Winehole23]

I mean, we are attacking Iran, but why post bs?

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5gy3v7opwo3bfoa7dojkfhvp/bafkreiguc5snapmtpjeqvkvf5fim5tydxiazxo4kpahvtqyv6 qc3syyj6q

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[Blake]

BUT WE'RE NOT AT WAR

[velik_m]

They have ceased the ceasefire. It's cease-ceasefire now, not war.

[Winehole23]

wider regional quagmire?


* IRAN FIRED TEN BALLISTIC MISSILES ON JORDAN'S AZRAQ MILITARY BASE -- STATE MEDIA

[Winehole23]

To suppress high oil prices during the war, the US released oil from its emergency stockpile. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 319.5 million barrels as of July 3. The last time the inventory was that low was in 1983, when the reserve was still being filled.www.reuters.com/business/ene... (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-fall-by-62-million-lowest-level-since-2026-07-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

[Winehole23]

GCC attacks Iran?




Iranian officials and state media have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility.
A US official has told Al Jazeera that the country’s military was not behind the latest strikes on Iran. No one else has so far claimed responsibility, and Iran has not so far blamed any specific country.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/10/iran-war-live-fresh-attacks-on-iran-as-us-says-talks-still-on

[Winehole23]

Time and oil are on Iran's side


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMyqi5PakAAMjtj?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

a war that's bad for the USA might be very lucrative for the man running it


Brokers representing President Donald Trump (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/donald-trump/)purchased (https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/69AEAA9D7455ACD585258E27002DDEE1/%24FILE/Donald-J-Trump-2026-278ANNUAL.pdf) between $9.7 million and $24.3 million in stocks from a dozen arms manufacturers and other Pentagon contractors in 2025, including Palantir, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics, according to an RS analysis of a new financial disclosure released by the president last week.

The disclosure comes as the Trump administration (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/trump-administration/) launches new strikes on Iran (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/iran/), oversees (https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/politics/trump-weapons-iran-defense-production-act) a historic weapons stockpiling effort at home, and calls (https://quincyinst.org/research/trumps-1-5-trillion-defense-budget-request-unhinged-unaffordable-and-unnecessary/#) for a $1.5 trillion defense budget, all of which benefit many of the companies in which he has invested.

Trump’s brokerage firms are prohibited (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/inside-trumps-stock-trading-surge.html) from accepting trade requests from the president and his family. However, he has not (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/inside-trumps-stock-trading-surge.html) put his assets into a blind trust, meaning Trump could know what stocks he owns and influence policy to benefit those companies. His income quadrupled from 2024 to 2025, his first year in office.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-defense-stocks/

[Blake]

a war that's bad for the USA might be very lucrative for the man running it

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-defense-stocks/

That would make a lot of sense why he's been trolling for places to attack over the years.

[velik_m]

China temporarily bans helium exports as US-Iran tensions flare again

BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China announced on Friday a temporary export ban on ​helium, effective immediately, as resumption of military conflict in #the Middle East threatens to trigger new shortages of the gas critical for chip manufacturing.

Earlier this year, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran led to helium ​shortages, disrupting companies globally, including in China, where the ​AI industry increasingly relies on domestic chips for training and ⁠running AI models. Helium is essential for heat management in ​semiconductor production.

The helium ban is the latest example of Beijing seeking ​to prevent domestic shortages of critical materials by curbing exports. It has previously imposed similar measures on fuel, fertilisers and sulphuric acid.

China is also looking ​to boost domestic chip manufacturing capacity and reduce the industry's dependence ​on cutting-edge Nvidia semiconductors that fall under U.S. export controls.
...


https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-announces-temporary-export-ban-helium-2026-07-10/

[Facts]

Helium we use mostly comes from radioactive decay underground. It gets trapped in natural gas formations.

It is used in electronics manufacturing, and coolant for machines like MRIs.

It is getting very expensive.

[Facts]

Global oil reserves are reaching their fucntional minimums within the next few weeks, and will no longer be able to augment global oil production.

When that happens the price of oil will go up, quite a bit. Even if the shooting stopped tomorrow, and the flow of oil resumed to prewar levels, this will still happen.

Once that happens, it will drive the price of food up even further than it is going up now.

The attack on Iran was a very bad idea for the global economy.

Trump bears full responsiblity for the starvation and impoverishment of many people.

He will not live much longer.

Many people will be happy when he dies.

[Winehole23]

Trump is the principal villain of history in the 21st century so far, so that roughly tallies.

It's risky to predict macro specifically and well, it isn't at all discreet to predict the death of others and the reaction thereto.

We'll see, eh?

[Winehole23]

Iran shot a missile at a commercial vessel, the US attacked Iran, Iran counterattacked at least five GCC countries including Qatar and Oman

[Winehole23]

war is on, pending any timely temporary pause of hostilities about when the markets open tomorrow night

[Blake]

A deal to make a deal which is a better deal than the last deal will be in place soon. Art of the deal.

[Winehole23]

last week we had beaucoup mid week warring

a ver

[Winehole23]

As War restarts, I keep hearing "tactical success, strategic failure" as a summary of US-Israel war on Iran because of enormous destruction of Iran's military and economic capacity & regime decapitation. But its better described as "tactical failure, strategic failure". Good note by @policytensor

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cmvp2dfgs7qrfjo5n27limmf/bafkreiedudd7lb2r76gxqs7tgyyhbsmyyjjjwpdv3ectjxpyl 5s7q3fhai

https://bsky.app/profile/convolver.bsky.social/post/3mqhtnoo5sk2b

[Winehole23]

Iran is not a major power, it’s a largely failed regional power, but they can practice A2AD from onshore while we have to project naval and air assets at great expense to counter them. Hormuz is basically the training level for China/Taiwan, and we aren’t doing well at it.

[Blake]

Yah... boots on the ground is just a matter of time at this rate.

[Winehole23]

Yah... boots on the ground is just a matter of time at this rate.unless Trump starts drafting Americans, there's not enough boots to hold and control Iran and too short a runway

also, the resulting energy crunch would basically bake in a worldwide recession

war could break out beyond the region

[Winehole23]

where's hater?

[Winehole23]

“We're going to keep the strait, and we'll probably run it. We'll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we'll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that,” Trump said in a phone interview on Fox News' Fox & Friends.

[Winehole23]

“We guarded the strait for 50 years, and we never got paid for it. We guarded it for nothing, but now we will make money.”

[Winehole23]

Trump has been talking about a US tollbooth in the Persian Gulf since the Tanker War of the 1980s




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreie7uyes22mt27hh6mehr5tpd72r5n5nexccsd6pnalii tjrvqcuj4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ekts44pfepbmryv2h633onqu/bafkreiej4um6f3kony2i4wtmxoeybw2n4wvnxj4cr2uj2htjm afdp3qheu

[Winehole23]

There's a term for when you set up a "protection" scheme where it wasn't needed before and then demand money for it

[Winehole23]

US blockade starting tomorrow


The renewed naval blockade hasn't come into effect yet, due to a legal requirement to notify ships owners 24 hours in advance. A U.S. official said the U.S. military central command will announce the specific timing later on Monday.-Axios

[Blake]

Trump has been talking about a US tollbooth in the Persian Gulf since the Tanker War of the 1980s

Gee I wonder who will ultimately be paying those tolls

[Winehole23]

Gee I wonder who will ultimately be paying those tollsnobody, since Trump isn't going to do it

no way the GCC goes for a Trump toll that's 10x more than the Iranian one that's intolerable to them

[Winehole23]

Trump redeclares war on Iran to restart the 60 day clock on Congressional approval


President Donald Trump formally notified lawmakers this weekend that the nation is once again at war with Iran, giving his administration another 60-day clock to use the military in the region without congressional approval.https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/13/trump-notifies-congress-of-new-war-against-iran-00995170

[Winehole23]

gift link while it lasts


Mr. Ahmadinejad’s 2024 visit to the university and a second one the following year were part of a yearslong Israeli effort to groom him as an intelligence asset who, when the time came, could be installed as Iran’s new leader (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html), according to both American and Iranian officials familiar with the operation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence.


Recruiting Mr. Ahmadinejad was of such priority for Israel that the country’s then-spy chief David Barnea even traveled to the Hungarian capital in 2024 to meet with Mr. Ahmadinejad personally, according to former American officials. Soon afterward, they said, Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, notified the C.I.A. that it had been in contact with Mr. Ahmadinejad.


Israel’s decision to build a regime-change plan around Mr. Ahmadinejad is an extraordinary twist in the saga of the country’s relations with the former president, who was known for accelerating Iran’s nuclear program, calling regularly for the destruction of Israel and denying the Holocaust.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/us/politics/israel-mahmoud-ahmadinejad-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xVA.e1N7.uAiDNN8 D9qiO&smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

Trump's fantasy US tollbooth will be replaced by fantasy trade deals


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[Winehole23]

lol thinking that GCC countries will invest massively in the US after the US wrecked their security by starting a dumb war with Iran

[Winehole23]

shortages, inflation, demand destruction and recession become more probable the longer this war drags on


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibp2tcfvkxflk4njcb5wvqmjv2cqeardcaujmbqimoxd dcfzpsxvq

[Winehole23]

so we escalate

what's the path to victory?

[Winehole23]

historically, punishment campaigns don't work

why will it work this time?

[Winehole23]

YEMEN'S HOUTHIS ARE REPORTEDLY PREPARING TO SHUT THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT ON BEHALF OF IRAN. THE WATERWAY CARRIES ROUGHLY 10–12% OF GLOBAL MARITIME TRADE

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:afucvpwfwrd35te62yqccbhz/bafkreibe2mk6v2jij2nbsdr2ypedk4wm3q66j33fygog2k3ri yxohqshua

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-3.37.06%E2%80%AFPM.png

[Winehole23]

escalation trap

reportedly this took about 13% of Kuwait's water supply offline


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3bqvbzpwgi5mqeqs6qlym26j/bafkreie4vo3zyuj7ug4ojersvtvcw6lm2wk6oq4xtkxs3cipw rnvyescky

[Winehole23]

losing the Daily Caller

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4x2n25hyaykkxz37qchwmhqc/bafkreid7lu7bghhvymtvus7x4hiis5kmkcs2kzxmzdc7ju25m qg3zi4p6i

[Facts]

shortages, inflation, demand destruction and recession become more probable the longer this war drags on


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibp2tcfvkxflk4njcb5wvqmjv2cqeardcaujmbqimoxd dcfzpsxvq


This is already built in. Shutting in wells becomes harder to reverse as you go along. sooner or later you have to cap wells, and getting the oil field back up and running to where it was before is months to years.

Even if they stopped tomorrow, which seems remote to put it charitably, AND they had all the tankers ready to go in and resume shipment, which they are not, AND there no mines, it would still take months to get that oil to the places it used to go (Asia mostly). THEN you would have to fill up storage at refineries to spin them back up, THEN you would still have to refill all those strategic reserves that have been severly depleted. This process will take YEARS, at best.

Oil is going to be expensive for a while, and when the national reserves reach their bottom pretty soon, they will not be able to subsidize supply. Then you can expect north of 100 easy, potentially over 200.

Coupled with the disintegration of the russian empire, which will take that oil off the market likely for decades, due to the nature of their siberian production. Russia was already facing a slow spiral due to de-industrialization and rank corruption, and a collapsing demography, it seems likely that they will never recover from the damage being done by their pointless war.

Shits gonna get bleak, yo.

[Facts]

escalation trap

reportedly this took about 13% of Kuwait's water supply offline

wife and I have played unofficial foster parents to a small number of young people through accidents of happenstance. One of those kids joined the military, and is now a diesel mechanic in an ADA unit in Quwait(?). He describes them as being "busy", and some of that is targeted at them specifically. So, I worry. Went to his tech training graduation, and those kids are so very young. I was a decade older than the most senior NCO I met.

Stupid war waged by a stupid, evil man.

[Facts]

so we escalate

what's the path to victory?

The only way the US wins, is instatement of the draft, invasion and long term occupation of Iran.

Theoretically possible, in the way that a landslide could theoretically spontaneously assemble a functional 747.

Best case scenario for all involved, including the US would have been the US surrender, which was what the MOU was.

Now, that is out the window. We have conclusively shown to be not worth negotiating with.

One strong feature of persian culture is that they view struggle against injustice as worth giving ones life for, to what I have been told by someone who I kind of trust to know. This war is tailor made to appeal to that.

There is no path to US "victory" here. The best we can hope for would pre-war status quo, but Iran is going to use its grip on the SOH to extract rent on all ships, so we pretty much lost from the first shot, which is what every wargame we ever tested out said would happen, and why no president has been stupid enough to try. Netenyahu got exactly the war he wanted to prop himself up indefinitely. Trump the rube.

Saudis will scramble to build pipelines and charge fees to the quwaitis et al to get around this. Again, years before pre-war flows.

[Blake]

losing the Daily Caller

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4x2n25hyaykkxz37qchwmhqc/bafkreid7lu7bghhvymtvus7x4hiis5kmkcs2kzxmzdc7ju25m qg3zi4p6i

Easy answer

[Blake]

If Trump declares we need boots on the ground and activates a draft, the Republicans can kiss a whole lot of mid terms goodbye

[Winehole23]

it appears some people have made a lot of money off knowing what Trump was going to say beforehand

I wonder if Trump got a cut


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5cn3kbi4g5blrtahon34xbu4/bafkreic6rteqf2rngn6u37mbej36a6uw62ydfo3ic33ne45ua b5mlgpe6mhttps://abcnews.com/US/doj-probing-26-billion-oil-trades-related-iran/story?id=132738007

[Winehole23]

attacking waterworks is a dastardly crime


Kuwait’s civilian infrastructure is certainly being hit hard by the IRGC.


A power and desalination plant was hit for a second day. That is significant because that is critical infrastructure for Kuwait. The country doesn’t have permanent lakes or rivers. It has very little rain. So, 90 percent of its drinking water comes from seawater desalination.


Two plants have been attacked over the past few days, out of nine major desalination plants in the country, according to Kuwaiti figures.
This has been a significant attack and will have a significant impact.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/18/iran-war-live-us-and-iran-exchange-attacks-for-7th-consecutive-night

[Winehole23]

Across the Persian Gulf coastline from Iran sit more than 400 desalination plants operated by Gulf Cooperation Council states.In Kuwait, approximately 90% of drinking water comes from desalination; in Oman the figure is 86%, in Saudi Arabia 70%, and in the UAE 42 %.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreic5gpp452l763z45ca5qrtm3d2pxw4rutfcvr3jggfxr nk3nvcuve
(https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social)



RAPIDAN: “.. How long will it take for a prolonged US blockade to bring the Iranian regime to its knees?

“.. While estimates in Tehran range from 1-3 years, our view falls in the middle of that range (18-24 months).”

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreidmhf2zwg2k5ouijpljauju2qetxbtss4b73vbsmetxs o4su3uiw4

[Winehole23]

2078530691109974522

[Blake]

2078530691109974522

THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS FOR THE BRAVE SOLDIERS WHO DIED DEFENDING US AGAINST...

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreia4vpx7p6wyjejda3w4emciq6qwxp5kth7wr5gho462q 6gcztgvv4

[Winehole23]

Trump put a target on our backs by impulsively starting a war with Iran that he has no idea how to win

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:dsa4uibhvbldyrnkkziijpsg/bafkreiazibp2aeihmrlsgdca5wshcqebner5hjtxatkfo5s3q tqvbpqfee
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[Winehole23]

if Trump wanted to win the war with Iran he shouldn't have surrendered first -- Iran got $$$ and time to shore up its military

if his choices then were really -- as Trump said -- either continued war or Great Depression 2.0, it's hard to see how the math for the US and the world has improved since then


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigb4cloodnzvomepeqzoyv4fmq77hze3ovnq23lb2tjo cestz45hu

[CosmicCowboy]

July 20 - Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, they said on Monday, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis:
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
HOW BIG IS THE RISK TO GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS?
It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out ​a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbour along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping.
Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern #gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.S.
With Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously.
Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.S. attacked it on February 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy ​shock.
Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal. Those heading to Asia ​go south through Bab el-Mandeb.
Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a ⁠year earlier.
Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year.
That has provided a lifeline for the energy ​market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.
When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports ​were flowing freely.
WHO ARE THE HOUTHIS AND ARE THEY CLOSING RED SEA ENERGY ROUTES ON BEHALF OF IRAN?
The Houthis emerged as a military, political and religious movement in north Yemen in the 1990s, fighting guerrilla wars against the government in Sanaa.
They have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised, government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbours with missiles and drones.
However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognised government said it had struck Sanaa airport ​to stop an Iranian plane landing.
The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and in response fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.
A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's ​Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed.
Iran champions the Houthis as part of its regional "Axis of Resistance", which includes Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi'ite militias, though its ties with the Yemeni movement are less clear than with #those other ⁠groups.
The Houthis do not recognise Iran's supreme leader as their ultimate religious authority in the same way Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups do. Their motivations are mainly domestic, though the group is ideologically aligned with Iran.
The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah. The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf.
WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THE HOUTHIS ATTACKED RED SEA SHIPS BEFORE?
After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel ​and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were ​doing so in support of Palestinians.
The attacks severely disrupted ⁠global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa — a far longer, more expensive route.
Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.
A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red ​Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a defensive campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles.
But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely ​with the Gaza ceasefire in October.
Last ⁠month the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran.
However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.
WHAT HAVE THEY DONE DURING THE LATEST IRAN WAR?
While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had ⁠been comparatively quiet.
The ​group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it".
Iranian commanders have repeatedly ​warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April.
Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.
That may now have changed with their announcement ​of the blockade on Monday against what they called the "criminal" Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including with last week's strike.

[Winehole23]

"mediators propose ceasefire to negotiate a return to the previous ceasefire deal"

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidcimhfzudunairzdi77ivlrr2mmbchtcewtkhh7ecey mp2dptwne

[ChumpDumper]

Ukraine is actually helping to keep crude prices relatively lower by forcing Russia to put out more crude on the world market since they can't refine it themselves as much anymore.

[Winehole23]

buffers much lower

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibhxxlekbarnqrwc4tzrlensdemihund4hsbgi3q66e5 5ojh2unea

[Winehole23]

~90 million people, ~950,000 troops, 3x the size of Iraq

lots of mountains and desert

how many dead Americans is Trump willing to stand on to create the perception of a win?

can't be done without boots on the ground or nukes


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xhmwhdq4pj2wh5jeucxjhay2/bafkreiatpemlsykbxzakebajz46d32v4ohfkkfa466wt7smer eupbh4kim

[ChumpDumper]

Fortunately, Trump's dying will be an opportunity to pull out of this particular death spiral.

[Winehole23]

Fortunately, Trump's dying will be an opportunity to pull out of this particular death spiral.I wouldn't count on that happening promptly, but it would be an opportunity for the USA to stop doing something stupid

[Winehole23]

honestly, I think Trump started the chaos too soon, the bad economic effects will arrive well before 2028

blaming the resulting mess on Dems might not work this time, not like when he surrendered to the Taliban and threw it in Biden's lap

[Winehole23]

(in fairness to Donald Trump, in his dishonest, scheming mind, he may not have meant to honor his deal with the Taliban)

[Winehole23]

(didn't count on getting thumped by Biden at the polls in 2020)

[Winehole23]

Trump isn't so great for the international reputation of the USA, braindead proclamations like this highlight a shitbird regime




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreicf73chvl5d7ziogmdgxncbj3b64cy53miv3kjmf3pcr dov5grrkm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibhzmmsbdcj4qruputamldqkj6dl3wxkre5xlbdflse7 2yep7veui

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihyhj557msi4azbb3cekbwa26kb222rkmrzc7apiyasr 2zui6tyzy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:kv2chjzrvjro2xdpe4lh2npb/bafkreid423dyntrv5gy7juoce7l6t2jd35mtkasfh2f456c5c gybc7cc2y

[Blake]

Trump isn't so great for the international reputation of the USA, braindead proclamations like this highlight a shitbird regime

What if they shoot with slingshots

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u23uzbgypuxy5vhzfahm642b/bafkreic4cnyd5skbct33sjgwl4nyaryxncslk2d4fpn5wl2wm a4j2stubq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreihkfycunjpvv3snbipntpag2lqrpfmuhnxzkm7ttsxnz ytc6hrm6q

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ehwxw3pmjqekxu5rnb3frknp/bafkreifmech6wx4dxo2bfgfxi5d5ndmlm3zijx6rcxnyeboqb 56tx7ouji

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ehwxw3pmjqekxu5rnb3frknp/bafkreifmech6wx4dxo2bfgfxi5d5ndmlm3zijx6rcxnyeboqb 56tx7ouji

Uh oh is Fox finally turning on Trump?

[Winehole23]

Uh oh is Fox finally turning on Trump?it's more accurate to say that Trump has turned on Fox's viewership/his own base on this topic

[Winehole23]

another war powers resolution passes



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:njhuquor23vkkeamltaxdsnz/bafkreifmoh3jelmdp6tr2lpdx5ap7ykyus7yrwxpkkvpjiyr5 gzotc736q

[Blake]

another war powers resolution passes

Spineless Republicans forever towing Trump's line. I hope they get the shit kicked out of them in the midterms.

[Winehole23]

WSJ


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreie3lml6pe3lk7noso2t22qe4yuniav4djsteqh7lx5s5 dlavgiwpy

[Blake]

WSJ

OBLITERATED¡!!!@!@@!!!!!!!

[Winehole23]

it was a clear mistake for Trump to surrender first

now he faces the prospect of surrendering too late or starting a ground war to win it

...at the cost of a global energy shock and a worldwide recession

[Winehole23]

where is hater?

payaso Trump is very plausibly starting WWIII

[Blake]

where is hater?

payaso Trump is very plausibly starting WWIII

He bowed out after Ukraine started attacking Russia

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN_KJtiXUAAA7Re?format=png&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif46sba5xskzqnghxnefmad5bqdvzrai4jtpwphqkldh jsq2vdata

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif46sba5xskzqnghxnefmad5bqdvzrai4jtpwphqkldh jsq2vdata

What a fucking moron

[Winehole23]

all he knows how do is fuck shit up and hurt people

[Winehole23]

Trump hastened the scenario he purportedly attacked Iran to prevent

Is this a regime change win for the USA, or the opposite?

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:on5oeywiqx32fh2zau473wz6/bafkreib3r7i24i5b52ccs56xavfebrnfrgvfd2dfmml3w7leg fokfn3sfe

[Winehole23]

also, Saudi Arabia attacked rebel-held Yemen


Wall Street Journal reports that 'Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack sites inside Iran, their first such direct retaliation against Tehran'.

[velik_m]

Israel prepares major military operation in West Bank after four Palestinians and two Israelis killed (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/24/middleeast/west-bank-settler-palestinian-clashes-military-operation-intl)

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kfhfplq6w6fknoyvr6v6dnj6/bafkreie2rp7q6km6t4bg5qwjnnhg64gq2uigvrjtv6o3ylods hjiotleba

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tekejvpfqorvnv5woi3rlvmw/bafkreidtcsdbsaudv62j2irhsqewokno3hka6jdtw6gjgdshz q7lumar5u

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicrroj2b46ex5lpube5kpexh7aoc5jclslbobhew2fvo j2znet3kq

[Winehole23]

Saudi Arabia rejects Trump's backtracking on the nuclear deal, a signed deal is a signed deal, it says

2080328408928493827

[Winehole23]

Zelenski trying to drive a wedge between Trump and Putin

doesn't seem likely, but nonzero odds


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiemvowu4uibiud3e3r6erthtbxijvmjqwneaiprzphcp 23oo5iksm

[Winehole23]

Iran continuing to attack while the US stands down would be an interesting choice, our GCC allies are still under the gun


2081144496260341992

[Winehole23]

that the USA is running out of ammo and interceptors isn't a surprise, it's been widely reported

announcing that the USA is running out of ammo makes little sense unless it's meant to lull Iran into complacency before a US attack -- you simply don't have to volunteer that info

[Winehole23]

maybe someone showed Trump the projected price of gasoline in the USA on Jan 1


The official said the strikes have the opposite effect of what is intended, keeping Iran cohesive and allowing Iranian leaders to focus attention on an external threathttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/us/politics/trump-iran-military.html?unlocked_article_code=1.0VA.nVvf.FgT s8_brs0tJ&smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

Trump has used missiles and oil as if they were inexhaustible -- clearly they're not

Because of Trump, Iran has the USA over a barrel

[Winehole23]

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command,

[Winehole23]

CENTCOM: The U.S. naval blockade against Iran remains in full effect. As of July 25, CENTCOM has redirected 12 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade, disabled 2 that didn't comply, and boarded 2 to ensure total compliance.

[Winehole23]

Is Dept. of Defense proud of the sacrifice or do they want to sweep it under the rug?

Pick one


The Pentagon is taking a “shameful approach” to releasing information about US casualties in the Iran war, Leon Panetta (https://www.panettainstitute.org/about-us/institute-people/leon-panetta/), a former defence secretary and CIA director, has told the Guardian.



The defence department has not held a press briefing (https://edition.cnn.com/newsletters/reliable-sources-07-20-26-132212) for two and a half months. Officials have faced accusations that they are engaged in a cover-up designed to hide the true cost of Donald Trump (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump)’s war of choice in Iran, fearing a public backlash before November’s midterm elections.


Panetta, who held weekly Pentagon briefings during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, criticised the department for failing to disclose how many people had been hurt in bomb attacks by Iran on US bases.


“There’s a deliberate effort here to basically withhold information from the American people, and I think it represents in many ways a shameful approach to sharing the responsibility that we all have when it comes to fighting a war,” he said by phone.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/jul/25/pentagon-iran-war-casualties-cover-up

[Winehole23]

Caspian Sea front?


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said long-range strikes targeted vessels carrying military cargo linked to Iran, as well as a Russian warship, as he accused Moscow of helping Iran’s military campaign against the United States.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/after-strait-of-hormuz-and-red-sea-has-iran-war-now-reached-caspian-sea

[Winehole23]

2 nights in a row without US attacks


Tehran has said it would halt strikes on Gulf states and US interests in the region after a pause on attacks on Iran by Washington.

“Our strategy has essentially been retaliatory, we have also halted our retaliatory operations,” Iran’s army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said, according to the AFP news agency.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/26/iran-war-live-tehran-summons-ukraine-diplomats-over-caspian-sea-attack

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreihcefrljgf42ynjdq3h75m7ys6gl24qm5uyl5ewqfmdu k4dq4ivne

[Winehole23]

new US surrender talks under discussion


Report on Saudi Al-Arabiya channel: The US and Iran have submitted their responses to the Pakistani-Qatari proposal for resuming the talks

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreibcwzze4yn2wgubqm24zpji5sjtvwx3a43drwjh3c2hv kvkb4txru

[Winehole23]

"Biden depleted US missile stockpiles but if you report that US missile stockpiles are depleted you should go to jail"

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/webp;base64,UklGRlwcAABXRUJQVlA4IFAcAAAwngCdASpuAQ 4BPp1InkqlpDAnJ7SbSgATiWMG/7JiJiBGs94mfc8cdoJfCTGcjSl92eIUkf978ReQnxivvfmG9ZL wiPKNSXO7KFfyyvGYKTv0Kh9vbduQFaavmJvGN7mq0M0Q4HW SPOL8fEEN/WvPD89o WaDamTq3jYdHh2w//cjfX84szH pp2y2B w2DORvz87cnqt3amanK5DYwt2pwtns95falS4ATKBIhZ5Q8MhH 1EprH1aui9b1r36OXTmXeQbFR8jK9fJBO8guf2QS1jna7Z59K iQpvZ/kyRogfo0gVw4YAAc8Mpm2CzgLx0dpam7ZlAMCJMRX1u8LVZz qoUstiI8mEEQxEVJupixX7XxayC0Gz3o3p5NlzdxDpqXk4WQ7d N1/1rdnCiqii6bViGjniAlmrOjfwHgki6LUNj7LADr5eYr UT40er03t8cgTRIe3uh3E6LUevAHdkhBqOy3CHbrZJxdGZ/sKZWLZCNRL/g7ru4XtCjTaZF8sdAaMSYK/lGGrttbjOzu4j8pDX856AMNO0E/p4ISM0l/kHn8uabc7q3hJZzfBoMRt4fvPreXZTggBdzw495iLaBwekpwTv nHVw4bBIxamK1ocBAjWN512o9EaI2f3NMEy1cMM8Hli4ttj8ks ycH N9rmHrHh1 mV lqyAX3aXBFo8OvYaXCYNEHNo3ah0FHaRu5ikln1WkwOusu6mzQ eknd PLJw/L mfDvCy8s1PdDEYMJXfq0pl9/bYFtcGjfmPT7UjQp4licvv2DVYrtW/XWiPq8pgRduxi9WddQCLVQ927bqGY1FUDlOJUrlKPuUxqdR7dk kmPVkXE cUNSvanclUyQWf7GyPKLHWhfDH4Bt7nbVvuxbKWpYv5m2umbyV wl 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WELKER: Is America backing away from a larger attack bc our stockpile has been depleted?

WALTZ: We have to take a step back. A lot of our stockpiles were depleted because of Biden

WELKER: But you acknowledge they're depleted?

WALTZ: No. And the people leaking this nonsense deserve to be in jail

[Winehole23]

The US Military has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be and the people who are leaking this nonsense (that our military stockpiles are depleted) deserve to be in jail.

[Winehole23]

speaking of leakers


"On March 26, 2025, it was revealed by The Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg that Waltz had inadvertently added him to a Signal group chat discussing the upcoming US strikes in Yemen targeting Houthi militia before they were publicly known." (CNN)

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN_KJtiXUAAA7Re?format=png&name=900x900

At this point ending the war at all costs, including outright concession of the war to Iranian victory and a complete national military divorce from Israel, is an easily winning message for anyone running especially for POTUS.

People of all ages should be able to relate, from generations who witnessed the U$A's humiliating defeat to Vietnam in the 1970s, to the humiliating defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s up to 2021. No more wars, no matter the reason, unless it's specifically retaliatory and provoked like Pearl Harbor in 1941.

[Millennial_Messiah]

page 86(47) represent.

not kill, but impeach, try, and convict. Not for fraud, taxes, perjury, election shenanigans, misogyny, all that stuff is a lot, but is it definitively enough to meet the criteria of high crime? No, but premeditated, unprovoked first-degree homicide is. He is directly responsible for murder of innocent Iranian non-aggressors and should be tried and convicted with due process for such, from the murders of Qassem Soleimani and (Ayatollah) Ali Khameini to the countless tallies of innocent civilian lives he has taken in Iran at the wrath of the U$A and Israel.

Donald J. Trump should not see a day outside bars for the remainder of his life, and J.D. Vance should be disqualified from POTUS as he is equally complicit to the homicides. The next-in-line to fill the vacancy would be the House Speaker, and the Democrats and Hakeem Jeffries are heavily favored to re-take the U$ House of Representatives in November 2026.

[Winehole23]

I think there are a lot of things that Trump could be impeached for -- at the end of the day, a "high crime or misdemeanor" is whatever a majority of the house of Representatives says it is

[Winehole23]

The Saudi Defense Ministry says its forces shot down several drones launched from Iraq by Iranian-backed militias in recent hours, attempting to target oil facilities in the Eastern Region and Riyadh.

[Winehole23]

Trump has got his dick caught in a crack, he can't accept the cost of winning or losing


Trump to Israeli Channel 12 News: "I'm not giving much time to negotiations; if the talks fail—we'll return to powerful military action"

[Winehole23]

Abqaiq bombed, reportedly by Iran-aligned Iraqi militias

~5-7% of global oil supply is refined there

https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2026/07/27/saudi-arabia-oil-refinery-attack-abqaiq-fire-impact.html

[Winehole23]

The UAE is reopening diplomatic and commercial ties with Iran while simultaneously strengthening defense cooperation with the U.S. and Israel.

The strategy reflects Abu Dhabi’s effort to reduce tensions with Tehran without weakening its security partnerships, balancing economic interests with regional deterrence.-FT

[Winehole23]

as long as we have a Roomba with cerebrovascular disease characteristics in charge, no rationale matters, we're ruled by vibes


Senior US officials assessed sanctions and the naval blockade were doing more damage to Tehran than the 13-day air campaign, which Trump paused over the weekend. Officials cited fuel shortages, bank run risk, and unpaid Iranian fighters.-Axios

[Winehole23]

Lol "formerly of infowars"


– Alex Jones, formerly of InfoWars, on Tuesday said President Trump must be impeached over the Iran conflict, describing the situation as “absolutely out of control” and warning that the administration is preparing for a national draft.

“The big issue is how to stop Trump. And we have to have Congress go for the war powers. They’ve tried three times to vote on war powers—they’re supposed to authorize a war. This is a war; they’re getting the draft ready. If this isn’t a war, nothing’s a war. I mean, this is absolutely out of control,” Jones said during a live segment broadcast on X.

[Winehole23]

Not great




Ambrey Security Company: Greek-owned and operated Bermuda-flagged LNG tanker was struck by at least one drone whilst alongside at Egyptian natural gas holding company at Egypt's Damietta port.

[Winehole23]

Chances are nonzero that by attacking Iran, Trump kicked off WWIII

[Winehole23]

Damietta is on the Suez side of things

[Blake]

Chances are nonzero that by attacking Iran, Trump kicked off WWIII

Not really 100% sure who our allies would be at that point

[Winehole23]

Not really 100% sure who our allies would be at that pointgood point

the global belligerence of America First could lead to America Alone

[Winehole23]

seriously depleted stand off munitions


In less than six months of war with Iran, the U.S. has used nearly two-thirds of its Patriot interceptor inventory, according to a new analysis that raises readiness concerns as fighting intensifies and the Pentagon scrambles to replenish stockpiles.

The U.S. and its partners have relied heavily on Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, systems to defend troops and bases against Iranian ballistic missile attacks across the Middle East. While the air defense campaign has been largely successful, it has come at a steep cost to U.S. interceptor stockpiles, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. They estimate that the U.S. has between 759 and 827 Patriot interceptors left, roughly a third of its prewar inventory.

The U.S. also has an estimated 234 to 278 THAAD interceptors remaining, down from 452 before the war. “Diminished stockpiles may force the United States and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions,” CSIS analysts Mark Cancian and Chris Park said. “There are no good alternatives to Patriot and THAAD for ballistic missile defense.”

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-07-30/iran-war-missile-stockpiles-patriots-22406307.html

[Winehole23]

.

[Blake]

seriously depleted stand off munitions



https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-07-30/iran-war-missile-stockpiles-patriots-22406307.html

No problem. Trump will just bully Congress into siphoning more funds to make more. Arms dealers are licking their chops.

[Winehole23]

No problem. Trump will just bully Congress into siphoning more funds to make more. Arms dealers are licking their chops.the bigger problem is if trouble breaks out somewhere else in the world and we lack stand off munitions to protect bases and troops

it'll take years to replace what Trump and Hegseth have shot off since Feb 28th

[Winehole23]

continental US is reportedly being cyberattacked by Iran


Since the USlaunched its war against Iran (https://www.wired.com/story/us-iran-strike-donald-trump/) in late February, the country’s hackers have struck back with retaliatory intrusions that have ranged from paralyzing medical supplies company Stryker (https://www.wired.com/story/handala-hacker-group-iran-us-israel-war/)to breaching the personal email of FBI director Kash Patel (https://www.wired.com/story/iranian-hackers-breached-the-fbi-directors-personal-email-but-not-the-fbi/). Now, after an unprecedented wave of disruptive cyberattacks hit water utilities in Minnesota, a memo circulated within the water industry ties those attacks to Iran, too, in the widest and most disruptive strike yet inflicted by the country’s hackers against the US since the war began.


A communication obtained by WIRED on Thursday and sent to members of the Water Information Sharing and Analysis Center, or WaterISAC, an industry group for water utilities to share cybersecurity information, links to Iran a series of cyberattacks that targeted dozens of Minnesota water and wastewater utilities.




The WaterISAC note states that the Minnesota Fusion Center, a state-level intelligence-sharing entity, issued an alert “regarding ongoing malicious cyber activity impacting public drinking water systems across Minnesota” and adds that the fusion center has found that those attacks were “aligned” with a hacking campaign first described in April (https://www.wired.com/story/iran-linked-hackers-are-sabotaging-us-energy-and-water-infrastructure/)by the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) as having been carried out by “Iran-affiliated” hackers. (Both the WaterISAC and Minnesota Fusion Center reports were marked as unclassified but “for official use only.”)
https://www.wired.com/story/a-leaked-memo-ties-cyberattacks-on-minnesota-water-utilities-to-iran/

[Winehole23]

who would want to attack the US's water infrastructure?


Cyberattacks targeting municipal water systems have been reported in at least seven states this week, prompting the FBI and the Environmental Protection Agency to warn utilities nationwide that hackers are trying to disrupt critical water infrastructure.



In a public service announcement (https://www.ic3.gov/PSA/2026/PSA260730.pdf) Thursday, the agencies said water and wastewater utilities have reported incidents to the FBI, with some malicious activity degrading water operations. The announcement does not name the states.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/hackers-targeted-municipal-water-systems-7-states-week-fbi-says-rcna590210

[Winehole23]

wider regional war is breaking out

Pakistan recently did a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, maybe their troops will be the tip of the spear


Saudi Arabia is preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, Yemeni sources believe, in a move to break the chokehold on its oil exports through the southern Red Sea.


Saudi forces have been seen withdrawing from the east of Yemen (https://www.theguardian.com/world/yemen) in what could be preparation for a land offensive. At the same time, Riyadh is trying to organise a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait.



The Saudi defence ministry said on Thursday that 14 states including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti had issued a joint statement supporting a multinational maritime defence coalition.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/saudi-forces-planning-major-offensive-against-houthis-central-yemen

[Winehole23]

Following drone attacks on eastern Saudi Arabia, Saudi officials have demanded that Baghdad prevent Iraqi territory from being used to launch missiles.-NYT

[Blake]

Seems like years ago when Donald said this would be over in days

[Winehole23]

"just a little excursion"

[Winehole23]

The Senate has voted down a war powers resolution to limit President Trump’s authority to wage war against Iran. The vote was 50 to 49. Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania voted with Republicans to defeat the measure. Three Republicans joined Democrats.

[Winehole23]

Trump keeps mashing the buttons that make prices go up: tariffs and war on Iran


Top U.S. oil producers ExxonMobil (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxonmobil-quarterly-profit-hits-four-year-high-misses-analyst-estimates-2026-07-31/) and Chevron (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-records-highest-quarterly-profit-six-years-beating-analyst-estimates-2026-07-31/) warn that global supplies of diesel and other refined products will likely remain #tight and lead to persistently high prices in the second half of the year as the Iran war (https://www.reuters.com/world/iran/) continues to cause major energy disruptions.
, opens new ​and Chevron (https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/XOM.N) (CVX.N (https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/CVX.N), opens new (https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/CVX.N)warn that global supplies of diesel and other refined products will likely remain #tight and lead to persistently high prices in the second half of the year as the Iran war (https://www.reuters.com/world/iran/) continues to cause major energy disruptions.
Both companies reported large jumps in second-quarter refining profits on Friday as declining fuel stockpiles combined with curtailed exports ​from China (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/) and refinery outages in Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/russia/) led to higher margins.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-chevron-warn-continued-high-fuel-prices-iran-war-2026-07-31/

[Winehole23]

what's the word for when prices rise while economic growth falls?


The continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to hit Americans’ wallets far beyond the pump. Companies say they are raising prices on products ranging from french fries and beer to paint and packaging to offset their own rising commodity and freight costs.

Samuel Adams brewer Boston Beer (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/SAM), Sherwin-Williams (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/SHW), International Paper (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/IP) and Unilever (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/UK/XLON/ULVR)—maker of Dove soap and Hellmann’s mayonnaise—are among the companies that have told investors in recent days that they have raised prices or plan to soon to compensate for more expensive raw materials.

The price increases have been cheered by investors, who have bid up shares of several companies following notice of increases. Sharp gains in shares of manufacturers, materials producers and makers of consumer staples have helped buoy the broader stock market as concerns about the data-center splurge have dragged down technology stocks that powered major indexes to new highs earlier this year.

Yet higher prices on everyday items threaten to ignite a new round of inflation that could muddy the path of interest rates (https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/kevin-warsh-asked-the-market-to-speak-it-answered-c5b589f9?mod=article_inline) and become a big factor in this autumn’s midterm elections.

“Investors in these particular companies celebrate every price increase announcement, but of course collectively all of these price increase announcements are very bad for the economy, and they are problematic for interest rates,” said Adam Josephson of Sakonnet Research.


https://www.wsj.com/business/iran-war-pushes-companies-to-raise-prices-on-beer-paint-fries-and-more-e55d31b2?st=UPjFVU&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Winehole23]

Energy companies have posted record profits as a result of the conflict, with ExxonMobil’s profits doubling and Chevron reporting more than five times its profits in the same time period last year.

[Winehole23]

more war bakes in a more intense energy shock, maybe even a global recession


This dislocation—where “paper” prices (futures and swaps) diverge sharply from the cost of securing and delivering a physical barrel—has become one of the defining features of the 2026 energy landscape. Physical crude for prompt delivery has frequently commanded premiums of $40–$50 per barrel or more over paper benchmarks in key grades, reflecting trapped barrels, soaring freight, insurance hurdles, and chokepoint risks. Refineries that must actually process the oil and produce fuels face the real costs and constraints.


That stress is most visible in refining margins, particularly for diesel. Crack spreads—the difference between the price of crude oil and the refined products extracted from it—have surged to historic highs. The widely watched 3-2-1 crack spread (three barrels of crude yielding roughly two of gasoline and one of distillate) has repeatedly set records, reaching levels above $60–$69 per barrel in mid-July. Diesel cracks themselves settled above $91 per barrel, an all-time high, driven by tight inventories, shifted refinery yields favoring middle distillates, and disrupted global product flows.


https://energynewsbeat.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Crack-spread-7-12-Source-Bloomberg.pngSource: Bloomberg
These elevated margins mean refiners are highly profitable when they can run, but the benefits do not flow evenly to consumers. Higher crack spreads translate directly into elevated wholesale and retail prices for diesel and other fuels. Diesel powers the backbone of the real economy: farming equipment, long-haul trucking, freight deliveries, and logistics. When diesel prices rise, the cost of planting and harvesting crops climbs, trucking rates increase, and the price of virtually every delivered good—from food to consumer products—faces upward pressure. This is inflation transmitted through the physical supply chain, not just abstract futures charts.
https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/oil-prices-ignore-the-warnings-of-the-physical-markets-refinery-crack-spreads-grow/

[Winehole23]

Trump made the cost of borrowing go up too


US borrowing costs hit the highest level since 2007 after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, underscoring fears that the central bank will not be able to contain the inflationary shock from Donald Trump’s Iran war.


The 30-year Treasury yield jumped 0.14 percentage points to 5.23 per cent following the Fed decision on Wednesday, signalling worries among investors that surging oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict could prompt a lasting bout of inflation. The move was the biggest since the fallout from Trump’s “liberation day” announcement in April 2025.
https://archive.md/ys5rw#selection-1783.0-1787.354

[Winehole23]

military assets are overmatched by the mission, according to US European Commander


Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who leads U.S. European Command, sent senior Pentagon officials a written warning this week saying he needs an additional Navy destroyer to continue both missions (https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sy100zssme), according to officials familiar with the correspondence. Without one, he said, he could be forced to prioritize defense of the U.S. “homeland” over Israel.https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sk0i8dismx

[Winehole23]

(probable CYA for Israel about to get their shit rocked by Iran again)

[Winehole23]

US withdrawal from Iraq is on schedule, could be rough sledding for the Kurds living there

British, French and German forces are also being drawn down


The United States military has started to draw down (https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/trump-meeting-iraq-pm-says-us-troops-withdraw-sept-30) its last remaining forces from Iraq stationed in the vicinity of Erbil's airport in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, well-placed sources with close knowledge of the process confirmed to Al-Monitor.

Patriot mobile air-to-surface air-defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne enemy equipment have already been removed from the military compound, the sources said, without providing further details. The pullout started last week and is ongoing, with the bulk of the US forces and their heavy equipment out, the sources said. “All” of the Patriot anti-missile batteries had been redeployed to an undisclosed destination, they said, adding that other defensive weapons systems remained in place as of the time of publication.

Regional officials described the pullout as routine and in line with the US commitment to withdraw all its forces from Iraq by a Sept. 30 deadline that was agreed with Baghdad.

However, coming amid sustained attacks by Iran and its Shiite proxy militias, and on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in particular, the withdrawal has left the Kurds feeling badly exposed (https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/zaidi-meet-erdogan-turkey-iraq-ties-take-kurds-feel-sidelined).
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/us-nears-full-withdrawal-iraq-bases-kurdistan-region-face-attacks-iran-proxies

[Winehole23]

Does the TACO mean more bombing next week?

[Winehole23]

KSA reportedly dislikes the crosshairs


The Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump on Saturday to express concerns about his strike plans, it was reported. Trump’s reversal also came after Iran (https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran) threatened to retaliate decisively against its neighbours in the event of US strikes, while Kuwait reported being hit by Iranian drones on Saturday and two ships were attacked off Oman in the strait of Hormuz.

One source described as having knowledge of the Trump-Mohammed call told Axios that the Saudi crown prince had “urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes”.

The Associated Press also reported the conversation, citing its own source. It said the Saudis were concerned that if the US targets Iran’s energy infrastructure or carries out massive strikes on other key infrastructure, Tehran could respond by carrying out similar attacks on the kingdom and other Gulf countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/02/trump-climbs-down-on-iran-strikes-after-saudi-alarm-and-threats-from-tehran

[ChumpDumper]

Weekend TACO special.

[Winehole23]

reportedly Israel found out about Trump's decision to TACO from his Truth Social post

[Winehole23]

Behind the scenes, Gulf countries are frustrated with what they see as a lack of a clear strategy from the U.S. as the war drags on, subjecting their territories to frequent Iranian attacks, people familiar with the matter said.

[Winehole23]

US basing in Kuwait is reportedly being reconsidered


The U.S. is now rethinking the scope of its footprint in the emirate, said U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations, even as Kuwaiti officials have said they still need a firm commitment of American support.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-u-s-liberated-kuwait-but-now-struggles-to-protect-it-from-iran-acb68e94

[Winehole23]

US officials starting to call bullshit on Trump in the press




Despite President Trump's continued comments that negotiations with Iran are set to begin on Monday, U.S. officials have told CBS News that there are no "new" or novel negotiations planned.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-donald-trump-us-denies-negotiations-begin-strikes-called-off/

[Winehole23]

Trump's war of choice on Iran made oil companies even richer, now he's demanding tribute from Chevron and indirectly blaming oil companies for making gasoline more expensive.




President Donald Trump on Monday morning accused Chevron CEO Mike Wirth of ingratitude and demanded the executive lower pricesas voter frustration with high gas prices mounts.

The social media missive (https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/2084276347934007468), (https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/2084276347934007468) in which Trump attacked Chevron for not giving the administration what he considers adequate credit for the oil major’s financial success, comes after the company Friday posted one of its highest quarterly profits (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/07/31/exxon-chevron-report-windfall-profits-lawmakers-take-aim/) in years. The profits come at the expense of drivers struggling with gasprices averaging more than $4 for a gallon of regular.

The global shortage of oil triggered by the war in Iran is driving up those prices — and big oil company profits. As midterm elections approach, those high gas prices are a major factor for an electorate focused on affordability concerns. Democrats assign blame to Trump, noting the war’s role in driving up fuel costs that the president has consistently vowed will come down. Trump in turn is pointing the finger at the very oil companies with which he had been closely aligned.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/08/03/why-trump-is-lashing-out-chevron-amid-profit-windfall/

[ChumpDumper]

What happened to the Freedom gas stations?

[Winehole23]

"negotiating the perimeters of a deal"


Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out an attack on a US base in Kuwait using three drones, according to a source familiar with the matter.-i24 News

[Winehole23]

Trump has accelerated the conversion to renewables


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zo4loyx2rtmfw5az6aigi65o/bafkreicendyzpc363gyny4zolsyob4lapklx3c4hdi6g4ysi5 p46mashte

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4lx6nur5wstwoc4wtgj56kyu/bafkreic6dj55jr3k7xj4owvk7lk56m3ugef7wbndsyhq3jaga mowfimmfu

[Winehole23]

Just one in three Americans support the war on Iran (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/06/23/just-one-in-four-americans-believes-the-war-with-iran-was-worth-its-costs/), the lowest reading in a Reuters/Ipsos poll since the five-month-old conflict’s early days, with most respondents saying that President Donald Trump has failed to explain his goals (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/05/11/poll-americans-dont-think-trump-has-explained-iran-war-goals/).


The poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, also showed the Republican president’s approval rating ticking higher to 37%, up 3 points from last month when his rating tied the lowest of his presidency.


Trump has offered shifting objectives for the conflict such as aiding Iranians to topple their leaders, taking out Iran’s ballistic-missile capabilities and preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The poll found that 69% of Americans — including four in 10 Republicans — think Trump has not “clearly explained the goals of U.S. military involvement (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/07/28/shrapnel-broken-bones-and-head-trauma-new-records-show-how-us-troops-were-wounded-in-iran-war/) in Iran.https://reader.militarytimes.com/2026/07/31/just-one-in-three-americans-back-iran-war-most-unsure-of-trumps-goals-poll-finds/content.html

[Winehole23]

Iran "begging for negotiations"


The United Kingdom Maritime and Trade Operations (UKMTO) center said in a post on X/Twitter that a cargo vessel had been hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman.


Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has attacked a US military base in Kuwait, a source familiar with the details confirmed toThe Jerusalem Post on Tuesday morning.


The attack was carried out using at least three drones, the source added.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/iran-attacks-us-kuwait-vessel-025809325.html

[Winehole23]

reported help from China and Russia

we're up to two proxy wars with Russia and now one with China


In Russia’s case, U.S. intelligence reports now indicate that Moscow is actively providing real-time satellite feeds and intelligence tracking on U.S. targets to Iran. This data on American warships and aircraft movements has enabled Iran to conduct far more precise retaliatory missile strikes. Moscow has also integrated its GLONASS satellite navigation system into Iranian drones, according to the same sources, allowing Tehran’s long-range projectiles to bypass allied electronic jamming more effectively. Widening out the loop even further, Iran’s newest drones and missiles also benefit from being able to track Chinese BeiDou-3 systems at the same time as Russia’s GLONASS. By merging Russia’s Ukraine-era upgrades with China’s tech, standard Western jamming systems cannot block both at once, as each system operates on entirely different radio frequencies. This gives the new drones that Iran is using against the U.S. unprecedented precision against its bases, as well as those of its allies.


In China’s case, news emerged last week from various intelligence sources that Iran is acquiring up to 400 Chinese-made Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems (MANPADS). These are highly accurate against helicopters, drones, and low-flying jets, utilising sensitive infrared and ultraviolet seekers that lock directly onto the heat signature of an aircraft’s engine, and are immune to countermeasures. They are also easy to deploy, weighing only between 15 and 20 kilograms, and basic operational training for a MANPADS launcher can be completed in less than a week. They are also impossible to locate, emitting zero electronic signature while tracking. In short, they aim to try to deny the U.S. low-altitude air superiority.

ttps://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Why-Have-China-and-Russia-Just-Stepped-Out-Of-The-Shadows-In-The-US-Iran-War.html

[Winehole23]

magazine depth could bite us on the ass


The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar ⁠with the data, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for future conflicts.The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources.




The degree to which the ​military is running out of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles has not ​been previously reported. The long-range munitions are an important part ​the military’s arsenal, allowing accurate strikes from a safe distance. U.S.-supplied ATACMS have played a key role in the war in Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian forces to attack targets inside Russia. The PrSM is a newer, more advanced generation that will replace the ATACMS, which have a shorter range.


Analysts say such weapons – which cost over $1 million each – would also be important in any conflict with China.
The sources declined to say how many of each munition the U.S. had left.


President Donald Trump launched the ⁠Iran war #jointly with Israel in February, predicting that the conflict would last a short time.
But as the war drags on, the ⁠three people familiar with the matter expressed worry that the falling missile supplies could limit the U.S. ability to deter adversaries, including Russia and China.




A fourth person familiar with the matter said that while Central Command — which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East — has nearly used up the land-based missiles it had before the war began, it has been able to reload from U.S. military supplies elsewhere in the world.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/us-has-used-virtually-all-of-its-long-range-precision-missiles-report.html

[Winehole23]

if this is the Iran-controlled route with a service fee, this would be Trump attempted surrender 2.0


U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio:

There has been progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but no final agreement has been reached yet.

We are hopeful that an agreement will be finalized very shortly.

[velik_m]

U.S. has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war: Reuters

The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar ⁠with the data, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for future conflicts.

The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources.

The degree to which the ​military is running out of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles has not ​been previously reported. The long-range munitions are an important part ​the military’s arsenal, allowing accurate strikes from a safe distance. U.S.-supplied ATACMS have played a key role in the war in Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian forces to attack targets inside Russia. The PrSM is a newer, more advanced generation that will replace the ATACMS, which have a shorter range.

Analysts say such weapons – which cost over $1 million each – would also be important in any conflict with China.

The sources declined to say how many of each munition the U.S. had left.

...

One of the sources said the drawdown of the #ATACMS and PrSM stockpiles reflected a decision by the Trump administration to avoid riskier ways of attacking Iranian targets, such as by using piloted aircraft to drop bombs.

Because these weapons allow the military to attack targets from a distance, analysts say they would be valuable in a war against an adversary with strong air defenses, such as China. They have been used to strike targets inside Iran, according to a March report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

According to the report, PrSM stockpiles were low to start with, since ⁠it is a relatively new munition, but the U.S. military has ordered a large number of them for 2027. The Army has said that ATACMS are being phased out and that production ⁠is shifting to the newer PrSM missiles.

Military leaders have for weeks warned the president that stockpiles of defensive weapons — including Patriot interceptors, which are effective against ballistic missiles — were dwindling, said two of ⁠the sources. Last week, several media outlets reported Trump had decided not to launch another massive offensive inside Iran in part because his military advisers had warned about the U.S. stockpile.

...

Last week, CSIS published a report estimating that between February and July about 65% of Patriot interceptors had been expended and that the number of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors in U.S. stockpiles was at least 38% lower than at the start of the war. Patriots and THAADs are systems that detect and destroy incoming missiles and are among the most effective in the country’s arsenal.

While Reuters has not seen the supply figures, those numbers match internal U.S. data, two of the sources said.

The U.S. also burned through a little less than half of its global supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are generally launched from ships, since the start of the war, one of the sources said.



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/us-has-used-virtually-all-of-its-long-range-precision-missiles-report.html

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4lx6nur5wstwoc4wtgj56kyu/bafkreic6dj55jr3k7xj4owvk7lk56m3ugef7wbndsyhq3jaga mowfimmfu

The only idiots that couldn't see that coming were Trump and his magatard minions

[Blake]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/us-has-used-virtually-all-of-its-long-range-precision-missiles-report.html

Honestly, that's a little surprising that we didn't have more stockpiled.

[Winehole23]

counterterrorism designations lifted

https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260805

[Winehole23]

strategic failure for Trump and the USA if he agrees to it


Reuters:

Iran wants fees of 5%-7% of the price of cargo from ships using the strait; Oman wants 3%.

"Making fees voluntary, at least nominally, could be a way out of the impasse, although an implied threat of Iranian attacks could mean shippers would be ​unlikely to risk transit without paying."

[Blake]

Went from completely free to now Iran reverse tariffing the U.S.

250th birthday D chess

[Winehole23]

Went from completely free to now Iran reverse tariffing the U.S.

250th birthday D chesswe'll see, Trump isn't agreement capable

he can't bear the humiliation of losing, nor the cost of winning

[Blake]

we'll see, Trump isn't agreement capable

he can't bear the humiliation of losing, nor the cost of winning

Might not even be up to him if Iran decides to use forces to patrol the waters collecting fees. Trump would only decide after that how much military we'll keep using to fight them off.

And lol at Trump saying we'd be charging 20% fees 3 weeks ago.

[Winehole23]

Might not even be up to him if Iran decides to use forces to patrol the waters collecting fees. Trump would only decide after that how much military we'll keep using to fight them off.Iran is threatening to wreck refineries and desalinization plants in GCC countries if the US continues to attack. It's not an idle threat. Worldwide recession and massive refugee flows would likely result.

[Blake]

Might not even be up to him if Iran decides to use forces to patrol the waters collecting fees. Trump would only decide after that how much military we'll keep using to fight them off.

And lol at Trump saying we'd be charging 20% fees 3 weeks ago.

Iran sure remembers the 20%


The Iranian state news agency Fars on Thursday published the text of what it described as an "initial draft of the strategic plan for managing Strait of Hormuz."

Under the apparent draft plan, Iran would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the strait. Other nations that have harmed Iran would not be allowed to transit until compensation is paid, according to the draft. Tehran will impose penalties on violators equivalent to 20% of the value of cargo aboard a ship....

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/08/06/oil-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz-oman-deal.html

[Winehole23]

Went from completely free to now Iran reverse tariffing the U.S.

250th birthday D chessOur military bases are too close to Iran now that we've lost the tempo of violent action and compromised our bases (and the GCC countries we are protecting) due to depletion of magazine depth and political intolerance of US casualties. Moving them to Tel Aviv puts the crosshairs on Israel, a fact not lost on Israelis.

Quite the pickle.

[Winehole23]

The war continues to widen.

Iran recently attacked Iraqi Kurdistan with drones and the houthis attacked government military camps in Yemen, after bombing eight Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.

[Winehole23]

Trump fucked it all up by attacking those fuckers when he really didn't need to, and Iran had given us no cause to

We're all worse off for it for the foreseeable future

[Blake]

Trump fucked it all up by attacking those fuckers when he really didn't need to, and Iran had given us no cause to

We're all worse off for it for the foreseeable future

He thought Iran was just a backwards little terrorist country that we could bully for an easy political victory and to help us forget about Epstein

[Winehole23]

He thought Iran was just a backwards little terrorist country that we could bully for an easy political victory and to help us forget about Epsteinthey've been preparing for this for 8 years

Trump attacked on a whim

[Winehole23]

will Trump protect Saudi Arabia from Houthi and Iraqi militias?


“Saudi, U.S. and other countries' intelligence found that Houthi and Iraqi militias under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could soon ​launch coordinated attacks on Saudi civilian sites including energy infrastructure, ports and airports.”https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-expects-imminent-attacks-north-south-senior-official-says-2026-08-06/

[Winehole23]

lord knows Saudi Arabia has bribed Trump robustly enough to do so, should he so choose

[Winehole23]

but maybe, Pakistan enters here

Pakistan does have a recent defense pact with the KSA

[Winehole23]

maybe Pakistan -- a nuclear power -- has a significant part to play in a widening regional war

[velik_m]

but maybe, Pakistan enters here

Pakistan does have a recent defense pact with the KSA

Pakistan is currently engaged in a war with Taliban. Has issues in Kashmir, terrible economy and certainly doesn't want another front with Iran. Especially since weak Iran, opens up issues in Balochistan. So Pakistan will stay as far away from Iran as possible.

If USA cannot protect the Saudis, they will turn to China. China already mediated a deal between Saudi and Iran previously.

[Winehole23]

Pakistan is currently engaged in a war with Taliban. Has issues in Kashmir, terrible economy and certainly doesn't want another front with Iran. Especially since weak Iran, opens up issues in Balochistan. So Pakistan will stay as far away from Iran as possible.

If USA cannot protect the Saudis, they will turn to China. China already mediated a deal between Saudi and Iran previously.I don't disbelieve you, but I don't believe stuff like this, which just happened, is 100% performative


Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have signed a joint defence agreement, against the backdrop of war between the US and Iran.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said an attack on any of the three states "shall be regarded as an attack against them all".


The pact was announced at a meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif in the Saudi city of Mecca.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30418m4mj4o

[Winehole23]

rumors about the new Iran/Oman deal are bonkers


Iranian news agency “Fars” reports, citing sources, on the current agreements between Iran and Oman regarding the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz:

According to the general framework of negotiations between Iran and Oman, ships will enter the Strait of Hormuz through the northern passage and exit through the southern passage, located near the coast of Oman.

After a specified period, the movement of ships through both passages will cease, and all ships will pass through the central passage. However, entry of ships will be controlled by Iran, while exit will be under joint control by Iran and Oman.

The cost of ships passing through the strait will be determined by various fees for services provided. The amounts charged to ships depend on a number of factors, including the level of services provided. “Insurance, refueling of ships, environmental protection costs, and other similar services are part of the services for which ships must pay.”
https://x.com/SprinterPress/status/2085414646937268649

[Winehole23]

Extracting war reparations from the US seems to be aimed at



Middle East Spectator — MES (https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator)
— 🇮🇷/🇴🇲 Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency has shared the initial text of the proposed ‘Strategic Control of Hormuz Act’ being prepared for Parliament

NOTE: This is a separate Iranian parliamentary law, in addition to the agreement between Iran and Oman.

1. The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israel, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.

2. Shipments related to Israel, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Vessels or cargoes that play any role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.

4. Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.

5. Heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of the cargo, are planned for violators.

[Winehole23]

US oil imports from Saudi Arabia fall to zero for the first time in 40 years.

[Winehole23]

2085678075925201280

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/00-petrostate-energy-damage.webp

[Winehole23]

iffy account, this is basically an IRGC press release

but it has been corroborated that other tankers under US escort have been hit by Iran as recently as August 2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/31/iran-strikes-tankers-us-escort-hormuz-strait-trump-gathers-cabinet

2085469618219721010

[Winehole23]

a quibble, scuttlebutt says that the US has been leaning hard on Oman to do the deal with Iran


Trump restarted bombing, and what did he get for it?

-Hormuz closed, more economic damage
-Lost Oman, which was working with the US before
-A vote of no confidence from Saudis
-Worsened munitions shortage
-More US casualties
-No concessions from Iran
-Now poised to surrenderhttps://www.ms.now/opinion/trump-iran-oman-deal-hormuz-surrender

[Winehole23]

Iran has a long list of preconditions for restarting negotiations with the US to open Hormuz, but the main suspense comes down to this: will Trump let Iran have nukes in exchange for reopening the strait?

Because walking away from the war without a nuclear deal with Iran functionally opens that path

[Winehole23]

Trump's stupid-ass war has been an out and out fiasco, could turn out even worse

[Winehole23]

who started the current war on Iran, Donald Trump or Bill Kristol?

blaming libs and RINOs for stuff Trump does is a recurring theme, expect it to get stronger as Trump's public approval continues to swirl down the bowl



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xogjrhqt6kq4b4nr4ulxu3jl/bafkreieys5tiqxo5dxz5q6jpxageriocvibv7rrzrjkltwrwl i4cv62yie

[Winehole23]

Iran war > Ukraine war wrt Patriot interceptors


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cdklqekun5o7gvz4sbujp3b3/bafkreie4ybvo3vty6ec243nuvz4zzg2xlisctry3veozxkj2y fgw56widy

[Winehole23]

Iran Intl. is a Saudi-funded, pro-monarchy outlet based in London


President Donald Trump was willing to end the Iran war without securing a nuclear agreement if Tehran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing US officials.

Trump had privately floated the option to senior aides after weeks of preparing to declare victory if Iran restored free passage through the strategic waterway, according to the report.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608092560

[Winehole23]

Sounds like Iran wants to Jimmy Carter Donald Trump

Unless Trump is willing to put US boots on the ground or drop nukes on Iran, not sure how he can prevent that

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qxudeqrdbv6676vzjssrhllo/bafkreic6gcpwpqccguzsvgcvjnby63nqh5hsucpwlyhzpt5gb md22p7wze

[Winehole23]

Trump is getting dog-walked by Iran


“The initial bombing campaign was supposed to produce political surrender. It didn’t. Iran survived, reorganized and adapted. The subsequent rounds of escalation were supposed to restore American leverage. Instead, they created new Iranian leverage, particularly through the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader regional energy system,” Pape wrote.

“That is the basic structure of the Escalation Trap: tactical military success fails to produce political surrender, so leaders escalate again in the hope that the next round will finally deliver the result the previous round did not.”https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-2677679702/

[Winehole23]

“At this point, more bombing may still destroy more Iranian military assets. But that is not the same thing as improving America’s strategic position,” Pape wrote in an analysis (https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/the-exit-trap) published Monday on his Substack. “Trump’s real problem is therefore not finding a clever way to declare victory and walk away. That opportunity has largely passed.”

[velik_m]

Saudi Arabia Used 86% of Its Patriot Missile Stockpile Due to War With Iran

Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of Patriot interceptor missiles has been reduced by 86% since the start of the war with Iran.

This was reported by Reuters.

In the 38 days of the war, the country has used up most of its stockpile of 2,800 PAC-3 interceptors, leaving approximately 400 at its disposal.

In light of this reduction, the U.S. government approved the sale of 5,250 missiles to Gulf countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

In addition, on July 29, representatives of the U.S. Army signed a contract with Lockheed Martin worth up to $58.6 billion for the production of Patriot interceptors, marking the largest order of its kind in the program’s history.
...


https://militarnyi.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-86-patriot-missiles-iran-war/

[Winehole23]

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-86-patriot-missiles-iran-war/great, more missiles are only a few years away

[Winehole23]

either he's really this dumb or he thinks you are


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigdlax4lxzpoqbnhj5snccf5map6jry2qnlg376idymh m6j2ouecu

[Winehole23]

regardless, Trump owns the L


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5jxq665jzrekunbjdjgixupa/bafkreieqtw2ara5skzafbwbpvtvmwp7wwxh7mrua4apg5kplj dssk3reza

[Winehole23]

Trump is bringing the New American Century to a close seven decades early

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibk2je4pqtc2ifwouugnft3rmpniizgoqrauw5khavpa gzxt6n24e


ISRAEL WARNED U.S. OF IRANIAN PLOT TO TARGET TRUMP AND AIR FORCE ONE WITH SHOULDER-FIRED MISSILES; TRUMP SECRETLY MOVED TO MILITARY JET AS RUBIO AND STAFF REMAINED ABOARD AS DECOY — WSJhttps://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-was-secretly-transferred-to-military-jet-amid-threats-to-air-force-one-26900d0c

[Winehole23]

President Dumbass gets frank military advice six months late

The possibility of Iran closing the strait has been known for decades


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreierglutgwdkwssey7udulqzwuibqr4tzw52ar4pwg4gp u6dp5lkzuhttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-assesses-irans-priority-shifted-nuclear-weapons-strait-hormuz-rcna591715

[Winehole23]

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-86-patriot-missiles-iran-war/from Bloomberg

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreibo5buwmcufv35jwm7nv2m7gzfen5b3udidsartvyvuj drtmvzztu

[Winehole23]

decapitation failed, regime change brought worse Iranian hardliners, the US depleted our own missile stockpiles and the resulting strategic situation left Iran stronger

[Winehole23]

way to go, you stupid assholes

[Winehole23]

President Dumbass gets frank military advice six months late

The possibility of Iran closing the strait has been known for decades

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-assesses-irans-priority-shifted-nuclear-weapons-strait-hormuz-rcna591715whoops, my bad

Trump and Whiskey Pete were warned beforehand, but ignored the institutional wisdom and swiftly -- in record time, maybe -- lost the war with Iran


In mid-February 2026, before the US military initiated the airstrikes that began Operation “Epic Fury,” the National Intelligence Council (NIC), an agency of the executive branch created to synthesize the analysis of the US’s 18 intelligence agencies, submitted to the president a classified report detailing the prospects of an attack on Iran. This assessment, first reported on in the Washington Post and subsequently confirmed by the Associated Press, painted a grim picture. It concluded that an offensive operation launched by the US military would be unlikely to dismantle the central pillars of the Iranian government. Assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could backfire, resulting in the consolidation of Iranian military and political structures and the activation of emergency protocols the Iranians had been preparing for years. Iran’s domestic opposition was unlikely to be able to seize power in such a scenario. A limited air campaign or even a protracted war stood a serious chance of failing to achieve regime change.

The NIC report was the final warning in a decades-long, documented history of US military and intelligence planners predicting grim strategic outcomes in a war with Iran. Official analysis anticipated every major failure of a potential conflict, from the brutal arithmetic of interceptor production to the possibility that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz. In this piece, we’ll trace the public record of this analysis, and show that it was widely dispersed and understood within the American military, intelligence, and political establishments.
https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming

[Winehole23]

The historical record here is damning. American intelligence and military officials at the highest level of the power structure consistently warned four successive presidents that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons, that diplomacy was the best path for making sure they wouldn’t, and a military option could at best delay an Iranian nuclear weapons program by a year or two. These warnings helped prevent conflict, but only up until February 2026.https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming

[Winehole23]

the missile depletion issue was clear after Operation Rough Rider against Yemen in 2025, but the decision-makers were asleep at the swtich


In January of 2025, Vice Admiral Brendan McLane, commander of Naval Surface Forces, detailed the interceptor expenditure rate for the US Navy during Operation Prosperity Guardian. The Navy had used 120 SM-2s, 80 SM-6s, and 20 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles and SM-3s.9 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-9) Later estimates would put the number of SM-3s expended at 12. Adding this to the 80 SM-3s that would later be expended in the 12-Day War, the USN had used 20% of the SM-3s ever produced in just a single year of limited military engagements. The situation with other Standard Missile models was just as bad, according to the US Naval Institute. Only 125 SMs of all types would be procured in 2025, meaning it would take the Navy two years to replace what it had used off the coast of Yemen.10 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-10)

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) subsequently warned about the dangers of this rate of expenditure in 2025. CSIS is explicitly nonpartisan and one of the country’s most prominent defense think tanks. Its CEO is former chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joseph F. Dunford, who was mentioned previously in this piece. CSIS’s warning, The Depleting Missile Defense Interceptor Inventory, estimated total stocks of both systems in the mid- to low hundreds, with no THAADs having been delivered at all between 2023 and the end of 2025. The study suggested immediate efforts to ramp up production of both systems, but acknowledged that attempting to do so would face serious defense-industrial hurdles.

Admiral James Kilby, acting Chief of Naval Operations, acknowledged the scale of the problem in April of 2025, answering a question about whether the Navy had enough interceptors with a flat: 'I think we need more munitions.'11 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-11) He gave congressional testimony on the issue in summer 2025:



The Navy's current reliance on high-cost interceptors, such as SM-6 and SM-3, is unsustainable in high-tempo operations. We must shift to use lower-cost alternatives while preserving expensive defenses for strategic weapons — or risk running short when it matters most.12 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-12)

[Winehole23]

Understanding the gravity of the situation, just before the war began, Chairman of the JCS Dan Caine told President Trump directly that conflict with Iran would drastically deplete stockpiles of key munitions, including air defense interceptors.13 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-13) The warning went ignored.


The Iranians had solved the air defense problem with an entirely different strategy: underground fortifications. The US defense and intelligence structure had been sounding the alarm about their inability to overcome this “passive defense” for decades. Deeply Buried Targets, a declassified 2001 report to Congress by the Department of Defense, warned:




There are no easy answers to either the HDBT [Hardened Deeply Buried Target] or WMD Agent Defeat challenges, and certainly no 'silver bullets.' … Even with the current strategy and acquisition initiatives, the United States will still not be able to hold all known or suspected HDBTs at risk for destruction, especially the deep underground facilities…Defeat of most of these facilities with conventional means—in the traditional sense of physical destruction—is impossible… The Persian Gulf War and the series of conflicts in the Balkans revealed that facility protection, by hardening, concealment, and defenses, remains an effective response to the technology advantages in intelligence and weaponry enjoyed by the United States and its allies.14 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-14)



The conclusions of this report were reiterated and expanded upon in the subsequent military literature. A report by USAF Colonel Russell Hart at the Air War College published in 2012 lamented that not only had the picture not improved in the 11 years since the release of Deeply Buried Targets, rather, the strategic imbalance was getting worse:



Although the US has made significant investments to defeat hard and deeply buried targets since 1999, recent studies show that US military capabilities are becoming much less effective at holding these facilities and other underground facilities at risk. Gaps appear not only in US weapons capabilities to destroy these targets, but also in intelligence capabilities to effectively locate and characterize them.15 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-15)

[Blake]

Trump just pulled our pants down in front of the world

[Winehole23]

The Iranians made rapid progress in their efforts to bury their most important military assets. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) understood fully that Iran had developed a complex and robust defensive doctrine designed from the ground up to give it an advantage in war with the United States, specifically, and said so in their assessment of Iranian military power published in 2019:16 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-16)




Denial and deception (D&D) is a core component of Iranian military doctrine, and Iran uses D&D techniques extensively to reduce the vulnerability and increase the survivability of its military forces. To apply these techniques across the military, Tehran has established what it calls a “passive defense” doctrine. The effort was based on lessons learned from past military conflicts, including U.S. operations in the Middle East and the 2006 Israel-Hizballah conflict. Key Iranian passive defense measures include camouflage and concealment, force dispersals, underground facilities, and highly mobile units. For example, Iran configures some military vehicles to resemble civilian trucks….Iran has the largest underground facility (UGF) program in the Middle East. Based on the central pillars of Iran’s passive defense doctrine, Tehran has invested heavily in constructing UGFs to conceal and protect critical military and civilian infrastructure throughout the country. Iran designed and built these facilities to support various aspects of its defense industries, key nuclear infrastructure, and military forces, including naval sites, missile bases, and equipment storage.



While more could be said here about American shortages in standoff weaponry, it isn’t necessary to prove the point. The US military knew in February of 2026 that it didn’t have the air defense munitions to defend military and infrastructural assets in the region, and it knew that it would be unable to put underground Iranian assets at risk. These twin realities dramatically reduced the possibility of success in the conflict on their own.

[Winehole23]

Trump just pulled our pants down in front of the worldwith two and a half more years to go

[Winehole23]

20 years ago


After the Iranians took steps to shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a popular conception has emerged that American military planners failed to anticipate this. This is wrong. In 2007, Admiral William Fallon was asked directly during his confirmation hearing for the role of CENTCOM commander if he believed Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz. He declined to answer on the immediate public record, but his response was later made public in congressional transcripts:




Iran’s strategy in part centers on their ability to control and/or close the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iran maintains the capability to interdict sea lanes of communication throughout the Arabian Gulf and selectively target one or more Gulf countries’ off-shore infrastructure, commercial transit lanes, and anchorages throughout the region. Iran maintains a large inventory of naval mines, an expanding coastal defense force equipped with a mix of Chinese manufactured anti-ship cruise missile launchers, an extensive mix of high speed fast attack craft equipped with torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles and at least 3,000 smaller patrol boats equipped with a mix of heavy machine guns, rocket propelled grenade launchers, shoulder launched surface-to-air missile launchers, and anti-tank guided missiles. Iranian leaders likely realize their naval forces cannot win a conventional force-on-force naval engagement with U.S. naval forces, and have therefore developed a strategy that uses their geographic advantage to put into play a layered defense strategy that relies on waves of near-simultaneous attacks against maritime targets to overwhelm the defenses of the target. Given Iran’s current naval forces capability, Iran could attempt to temporarily close the Strait of Hormuz for a short period, principally using naval mines and coastal defense forces… Should our relationship with Iran deteriorate to the point of hostilities, we are capable of neutralizing the military threat to U.S. naval vessels and preserving access through the strait for commercial traffic.

[Winehole23]

15 years ago


Fallon’s optimism wasn’t universally shared. In 2009, the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) published Iran’s Naval Forces. The report described in detail that Iran was capable of strangling traffic through the strait, and would do so if its leadership felt seriously threatened. The ONI predicted “serious economic consequences” worldwide if this happened. Jonathan Schroden of the Center for Naval Analyses concluded that the Iranians wouldn’t necessarily need to fully close the strait to cause damage to the US economy in a 2011 paper.18 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-18) He cautioned planners that Iran could emerge from a conflict over Hormuz politically and strategically stronger, even if the strait were reopened by military force. He warned:



Strategists need to think through what "failure" might look like for the U.S. and its Coalition partners as a result of a conflict over closure of the Strait (and conversely, what "success" might look like for Iran), and how to prevent such scenarios from playing out. Simply assuming that military action is required as a response, or that tactical and operational successes will translate into strategic ones, leaves the door open for Iran to snatch a strategic win from the jaws of defeat

[Winehole23]

14 years ago


The 2012 Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Worldwide Threat Assessment said Iran likely had the capability to close the strait. JCS Chairman Dempsey told Congress, “The simple answer is yes, they can block it,” in 2012.19 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-19) The ONI concluded Iran was “well positioned” to leverage the Strait of Hormuz in 2017, and the aforementioned 2019 WTA acknowledged “Iran continues to develop, improve, and field a range of military capabilities that enable it to target US and allied military assets in the region and disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”20 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-20)

[Winehole23]

clearly foreseen during Trump's first administration


That Iran might retaliate against Gulf oil infrastructure in response to being attacked was also anticipated, both by the Congressional Research Service and the DIA. The 2019 attack by Ansar Allah on Saudi oil infrastructure in Abqaiq set a clear precedent that American air defenses, which failed to intercept the attack, could struggle to protect economically crucial sites. Shortly afterward, Dunford told Congress that no single system could defend against such a threat, though a layered system 'could mitigate' it. The CRS noted, “Iran and/or its allies have the capability to cause significant damage to U.S. allies and to U.S. regional and global economic and strategic interests.”

[Winehole23]

vulnerability of US bases was clearly foreseen


If American planners knew they couldn’t protect Gulf oil infrastructure, they understood even better, and were much more concerned with, their inability to defend their own bases in the region. The USAF had been aware of this issue for decades. It commissioned a RAND study analyzing the vulnerability of American air bases to cruise and ballistic missile attacks in 1997.21 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-21) RAND imagined a theoretical war with Iran in 2007, and even though the Iranian ballistic missile program was in a state of relative infancy at the time it was written, the paper explicitly treated Iranian missiles as a major threat to American assets in the region. It said Iran would engage in large-scale, repeated missile and UAV attacks on American bases. RAND projected the future state of Iranian missile technology and calculated that it would be within their capabilities to inflict massive losses of airframes and personnel with a “surprisingly small” number of submunition warhead cruise and ballistic missiles. Air defense radars and fire control systems for air defense systems would be targeted, and fixed assets could be located using commercially available satellite imagery and human intelligence from locals friendly to Iran. Unless serious steps were taken to mitigate this threat, the USAF would be forced to “abandon bases within reach of enemy missiles.” This applied to all bases along the southern edge of the Persian Gulf and most in Saudi Arabia.

[Winehole23]

Trump made de-basification a fact

Attacking Iran wrecked our security infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, as predicted by US intelligence and military brass


American strategists understood that US forces in the region were overextended. In 2022, CENTCOM commander General Frank McKenzie proposed to the Biden administration that plans be drawn up to move USAF basing to Israel and Egypt in the event of war with Iran, but the idea was rejected.24 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-24) In July, once the Iran War was already well underway, McKenzie said in a JINSA webinar “No one in their right mind would ever put the Centcom forward headquarters, you know, 100 miles away from Iran, [in Qatar], yet that’s where it is.” McKenzie wrote an op-ed in 2024 where he stated the issue plainly, “In a full-blown war with Iran, these existing bases will be rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack. The Iranians can see this and have created a large and very capable missile and drone force in part to exploit this situation.

[Winehole23]

Pete the war-fighter didn't study war before attacking

Fortune may favor the bold, but it doesn't favor stupidity


Retrospective studies of Operation Allied Force, NATO’s 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia, took a dim view of limited air campaigns. A report by Admiral James Ellis admitted that even though the NATO force executed 38,000 combat missions, it never fully brought down the Serbian air defense network.27 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-27) Aircraft operated above 15,000 feet to reduce the risk of shootdowns. RAND noted that the Serbs kept their SAMs dispersed and only switched their radars on briefly, and NATO’s efforts to locate these SAMs and other Serbian ground targets were “largely unsuccessful.”28 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-28) A planned 72-hour campaign ballooned to 79 days as a result.


Even the 1991 Gulf War, often identified as the prime example of the strength of air power, wasn’t a clear-cut success. RAND’s 1994 critical review on Air Power in the Gulf War asserted that Desert Storm featured multiple “major disappointments” in the air domain, including a failure to “locate and destroy mobile SCUD launchers.”


The USAF’s ACE doctrine admitted the shifting balance, though it limited this to “peer conflicts”:


In future peer conflicts, the US should not expect to achieve the air supremacy it enjoyed in recent low intensity operations. Rather, it is more likely that every domain will be contested and characterized by fluctuating levels of superiority.



But even if air supremacy could be achieved, the Pentagon knew that air power alone would be unlikely to force Iranian capitulation. This subject had been studied extensively throughout the previous two decades. Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson took a dim view of air power when testifying before Congress on the prospect of war with Iran in 2007: “The more widespread strikes, while devastating—and they would be—would solidify a nation of 70-plus million people… the uniting factor would be nationalism and a visceral hatred for America.”29 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-29) In the same hearing, Colonel Samuel Gardiner, USAF (ret), said:




The Revolutionary Guard units we don’t hear much talked about is they are prepared for an air strike. They are heavily bunkered and heavily re-vetted [in revetments]. It would be very difficult to put punishment on them.

[Winehole23]

2023 and 2025 offered lessons that were ignored


Prosperity Guardian showed that even a relatively resource-poor and weak military force could shut down a crucial maritime chokepoint with standoff munitions, and that an American naval force would be unable to stop it. Poseidon Archer and Rough Rider proved that a limited air campaign could fail to suppress the launches of those standoff munitions. Despite these three operations costing billions, they didn’t restore commercial confidence in shipping in the Red Sea, which was still down 60% from pre-2023 levels at the beginning of 2026.30 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-30) A post-mortem on the Red Sea Crisis published by West Point in June 2025 offered a blunt description of the failure of every option available to two successive presidential administrations:



This was the menu of options that the Biden administration had in November 2023, and it was largely the same menu that the Trump administration had in March 2025. Over the past year and a half, the United States has either attempted or threatened nearly all of these options, with little success.




The lesson for a prospective war with Iran was obvious. If the US couldn’t do it in Yemen, it wouldn’t be able to suppress Iranian drone and missile launches in the Persian Gulf or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

[Winehole23]

Israel failed to degrade Iran's capabilities too, and we knew it


The two major Israeli air operations against Iran in 2024 and 2025, “Days of Repentance” and “Rising Lion,” respectively, showed that even massive air attacks on Iran would fail to seriously degrade Iranian missile and drone launch capability. Video evidence of dozens of Iranian missiles striking targets in Israel proved that the Iranians were capable of penetrating the US/Israeli missile defense system at long range. Air Force findings from two decades earlier on the impossibility of destroying deeply buried targets held, as evidence slowly emerged that the Fordow site struck by the US in the closing days of the 12-Day War hadn’t been “obliterated,” as the Trump administration claimed, with the centrifuges there “largely intact,” according to the DIA.32 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-32)


Israeli narratives that they had achieved freedom of movement in Iran’s skies were later thrown into question as disclosures revealed many of their supposed airstrikes had been drone and ground-based missile launches from within Iran itself.

[Winehole23]

we also knew leadership decapitation was a long shot


In 2019, the DIA outlined how the Iranian state had restructured itself specifically to survive internal threats, and said its opponents were disorganized, writing, “Iranian political and ethnic opposition groups are largely localized and lack unity, posing little threat to the regime.” In the weeks leading up to the war, American planners recognized that the latest wave of protests had failed. The CRS found that “even so-called moderates have backed the crackdown against what the regime has characterized as a US and Israeli-backed plot” and that there had been no “widespread defections from within Iran’s military, security forces, or political elite.”35 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-35)


The USAF’s doctrinal publication Strategic Attack identified the limitations of decapitation strikes:



Leadership attack is a specific form of attrition that removes enemy leadership by direct attack when members of that leadership constitute lawful targets…. Leadership attack is most effective when an enemy is led by a single charismatic and authoritarian figure who cannot be easily replaced. It is also effective against organizations with rigid, hierarchical leadership structures, since US forces can identify, locate, and remove those leaders and their replacements… As a matter of practice, US forces have often avoided attacks on the national leadership of an enemy State based on comity.36 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-36)



American planners knew that Iran, with its complex, parallel political, clerical, and military structures, was a poor target for a leadership attack. The NIC told the Trump administration this in mid-February, just weeks before the war began. Iran’s military and political structure had “pre-arranged protocols” in place in the event of Khamenei’s assassination, the report said. It was “unlikely” that even a large, prolonged military campaign would result in regime change, “even if the current leadership was killed.”37 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-37)
The NIC was entirely correct. The mass protests failed, just as they had in the past, and Iran’s power structure rapidly adapted to the US/Israeli assassination campaign.

[Winehole23]

Israel bamboozled Trump on the chances of overthrowing the Iranian regime


In the lead-up to the war, every assessment made by the Pentagon and US intelligence apparatus was directly contradicted by competing assessments made by Israeli planners and presented directly to the Trump administration. Mossad chief David Barnea traveled to Washington in mid-January and delivered a comprehensive plan to assassinate the Iranian leadership and stir mass protests to accomplish regime change.38 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-38) The Israelis also presented a supporting plan to invade Iran with Kurdish proxy forces, but American strategists had already identified that the Kurds were too dispersed and disorganized to be used for this purpose, and doing so would strain relations with Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heavily lobbied the Trump administration to convince them the plan was achievable. Throughout this process, US military and intelligence officials fought fiercely to convince the administration that the plan would fail, but were overruled.

On the 11th of February, Trump held a situation room meeting with Rubio, Hegseth, General Caine, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Netanyahu.39 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?utm_campaign=post#footnote-39) Barnea and other Israeli officials attended virtually. The meeting lasted more than an hour, and the Israelis made their final case for the war. They said Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed in a few weeks, Iran would be too weak to block the Strait of Hormuz, airstrikes would inspire the Iranian people to rise up against the government, Kurdish forces would bog Artesh down in Western Iran, and exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi would be on standby to seize power at the opportune moment. After Netanyahu’s presentation, President Trump responded, “Sounds good to me.” When others present brought up potential risks, Netanyahu told them inaction was a greater risk than action.

The American military and intelligence structure scrambled to present a rebuttal to the Israeli plan, and produced a comprehensive response the next day in an American-only meeting. They agreed that they could kill Khamenei and degrade Iran’s ability to project power, but triggering a popular uprising and achieving regime change were “detached from reality.”



When Mr. Trump joined the meeting, Mr. Ratcliffe briefed him on the assessment. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: “farcical.”



Trump asked Caine directly what he thought:



“Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling.”



Caine specifically told Trump that Iran would likely close Hormuz, and the US force in the region would have difficulty unblocking it. JD Vance tried to change Trump’s mind, warning him the operation would unleash chaos in the region, and cited the munition shortage explicitly. But Trump had already made up his mind, and both Vance and Caine demurred from taking more serious action to stop the war from proceeding. Vance told Trump that even though he thought it was a bad idea, he would support the president’s decision. Decades of Israeli efforts had culminated in an incredible triumph of influence without any precedent. The US military would deliberately enter into a war of aggression it knew it would lose.

[Winehole23]

then we used diplomacy as a cloak for attack


Days later, the Israelis presented Trump with intelligence that Khamenei would be meeting on the 28th of February with high level Iranian officials above ground, where they could attack him. When the American group met again on the 26th, the plan was in place. Caine told Trump that if he ordered the operation, the military would execute it. The next day, Trump gave the green light, and the rest, as they say, is history.https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming

[Winehole23]

Trump's Iran war is an omnishambles

Trump and Whiskey Pete got good advice from intelligence and military brass, they just ignored it, and the whole world is worse off for it

[Winehole23]

no greater threat to US international credibility and prestige exists than the Trump administration

that's the track record so far

[Winehole23]

There are currently 1500 users online (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/online.php). (1 members and 1499 guests)

[Blake]

with two and a half more years to go

Can't even imagine how much lower this country is going to sink in that time frame

[Winehole23]

robust demand signal, but it will take up to 5 years to ramp up production to replenish stocks, let alone to support high-intensity conflict


After two wars — Ukraine and the 2026 conflict with Iran — burned through interceptor stockpiles at a rate no peacetime industrial base was built to sustain, the Pentagon is moving with unusual speed and unusual money in an attempt to rapidly rebuild its most important air-defense munition. In late July, the U.S. Army awarded Lockheed Martin a multiyear PAC-3 production contract reported at roughly $53.9 billion, part of a framework meant to lift annual output of the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptor from about 600 missiles to 2,000 by 2030. It is one of the largest missile-production commitments in American history.

There is only one tiny problem that the contract cannot fix with money alone — The PAC-3’s guidance system — the part that makes a hit-to-kill interceptor actually hit — depends on two rare-earth inputs whose supply is almost entirely controlled by China. Washington is pressing its defense primes to more than triple output of a weapon whose most irreplaceable components sit at the far end of a supply chain that runs through Beijing. The ambition and the vulnerability are growing at the same time, and they are on a collision course.


rare materials for guided missiles are approximately 100% controlled by Beijing


That is exactly what makes the material vulnerability so dangerous. You cannot triple the output of a weapon if you cannot secure the handful of grams of specialty magnet material that each unit requires — and that is precisely the input the United States does not control.


Samarium and yttrium are the two rare earths at the heart of this story, and on both, China’s grip is close to total.

Yttrium is stark: between 2020 and 2023, China supplied 93% of US yttrium imports. Samarium is worse in a subtler way — the issue is not the raw ore but the separation and refining of heavy rare earths into usable material, and there China’s dominance approaches a monopoly. Until 2023, China accounted for roughly 99% of global heavy rare-earth processing; the one meaningful competitor, a refinery in Vietnam, has been idled by a tax dispute, effectively leaving China as the sole source. The United States currently has essentially no domestic heavy rare-earth separation capacity at all, and is assessed by US government and academic sources as 100% net-import-dependent on finished rare-earth magnets.

Both samarium and yttrium are on China’s export-control list — added in the April 2025 tranche of seven medium and heavy rare earths, and reinforced in January 2026 when Beijing tightened controls specifically on samarium compounds. This is the paradox in a sentence: the government is ordering a threefold surge in a weapon whose guidance and radar depend on two elements that a strategic competitor can restrict at will.
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/trump-wants-2000-more-patriot-interceptors

[Winehole23]

The numbers are stark. Crude exports through the Strait have collapsed to 2.2 million barrels per day from 8.5 million a month ago. Pre-war flows of roughly 20 million barrels per day are now a distant memory. Gulf states’ alternative export routes are also under attack — Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea pipeline hit by Houthi strikes, Egypt’s Damietta port struck by drones.https://x.com/HormuzReport/status/2087187630505284075

[Winehole23]

could be bullshit, but it's plausible


An Iran-linked group took responsibility for cyberattacks that hit Minnesota water systems at the end of July, proclaiming that the hacks on dozens of communities were conducted “only to warn” of their broader capabilities to strike U.S. critical infrastructure.

CyberAv3ngers, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was suspected to be behind the July 26-27 attacks and said in a July 31 statement (https://threatbeat.com/attacks-and-incidents/irans-cyberav3ngers-claim-attacks-on-u-s-infrastructure-vow-more-in-first-statement-since-minnesota-water-hacks/) posted on their Telegram channel that the group “has carried out attacks on U.S. infrastructure, and we warn America to back down.” That statement did not specifically mention Minnesota, or any of the dozen states reporting (https://www.foodandwine.com/cyberattacks-on-americas-water-systems-12056904) recent cyberattacks on water systems.
https://threatbeat.com/attacks-and-incidents/minnesota-water-attacks-were-only-to-warn-iran-hackers-claim-while-taking-responsibility/