Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

treaty law is still law of the land


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:zm64jthu5rlho6qjjwem4qq7/bafkreibgn5zzdbtwwcctkbpdcl3qvprqwaepffjl6nrmzqmqe zcindkgiq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibnppbpf3y7ibtiovuyuisr6ukhe5piczcazfgfzbnjp 7bvxk4equ

[Blake]

Lol "I think"

[Winehole23]

killed scores of schoolchildren because of incompetence/obliviousness at best

but maybe it was intentional



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dzezcmpb3fhcpns4n4xm4ur5/bafkreigtlohcxiu3wcwbqgdrt53zgsgbdqultnokutlwefdcw b2b7rvhgmhttps://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/politics/us-commanders-intelligence-iran-school

[Winehole23]

The Dow closed above 53,000 yesterday for the first time ever. This morning, chips are selling off globally and Iran reportedly hit another tanker: Samsung stock fell nearly 7% in South Korea despite a 19-fold surge in quarterly operating profit, dragging tech indexes lower worldwide

[Winehole23]

Saudis haven't been letting us use their airspace since May

Trump/Bibi attacking Iran fucked up regional security not necesssarily to the advantage of the GCC


U.S. Central Command was caught by surprise when officials from Saudi Arabia said American forces could not use the kingdom’s air space for the mission...THE AMERICANS HAD NOT CONSULTED THE SAUDS.


And more and more, the Saudis see the U.S. government as unreliable and even on occasion a risk to Gulf Arab nations (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/world/middleeast/gulf-changed-forever-iran-war.html).www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u... (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/trump-saudi-crown-prince-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.wFA.Ux5J.B3ZEYqJ bwhJB&smid=tw-share)

[Winehole23]

seems Iran attacking GCC countries is back on the menu


Several explosions rang out across Bahrain, an AFP correspondent said, after authorities sounded air raid sirens to warn of an attack.



“Loud” blasts were heard in the north of the island state, the correspondent said, in the first incident since Bahrain reported intercepting Iranian drones and missiles on June 28.

[Blake]

"OBLITERATED!!"

[Winehole23]

* SPANISH PM'S OFFICE STATEMENT ON TRUMP ORDERING TO CUT OFF TRADE: SPAIN IS TREATING THESE STATEMENTS AS BUSINESS AS USUAL

[Winehole23]

Trump's crappy deal with Iran was crappy, too much ambiguity


This isn’t a return to full-scale war, but it isn’t peace either. It is a new phase in the conflict: the fight to control Hormuz. The United States already lost the fight Trump started; it failed to achieve his declared goal of the Iranian regime’s unconditional surrender, or, barring that, Tehran’s acceptance of stringent nuclear restrictions. Now the conflict is over whether Iran controls Hormuz and can charge fees, or if the U.S. can restore the pre-war status quo, with ships transiting freely.https://www.ms.now/opinion/us-iran-war-strait-hormuz-strikes

[Winehole23]

Oman breaking neutrality


Oman’s Foreign Ministry has released a statement condemning Iran’s attacks on sites in Bahrain and Kuwait as well as on two commercial ships from Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Strait of Hormuz.


The statement affirmed Oman’s solidarity with its neighbouring countries and said increasing military tensions in the region threaten Oman’s safety and security. It also said the attacks threaten global trade networks and energy supplies.


Oman urged all parties involved to exercise “self-control”, refrain from escalating the situation and return to diplomacy.

[Winehole23]

looks like Saudi Arabia allowed the US to use its airspace for the most recent US strikes

2074735090756628743

[Winehole23]

2074734014271779038

[Winehole23]

GCC tankers hit

2074800560100798560

[Winehole23]

but is there still a ceasefire?


The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States, mediated by Pakistan, is officially canceled.-Tasnim

[Winehole23]

saber-rattling


The U.S. military is ready to restart the blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports if ordered to do so, a U.S. official said.-Fox News

[Winehole23]

I mean, we are attacking Iran, but why post bs?

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5gy3v7opwo3bfoa7dojkfhvp/bafkreiguc5snapmtpjeqvkvf5fim5tydxiazxo4kpahvtqyv6 qc3syyj6q

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[Blake]

BUT WE'RE NOT AT WAR

[velik_m]

They have ceased the ceasefire. It's cease-ceasefire now, not war.

[Winehole23]

wider regional quagmire?


* IRAN FIRED TEN BALLISTIC MISSILES ON JORDAN'S AZRAQ MILITARY BASE -- STATE MEDIA

[Winehole23]

To suppress high oil prices during the war, the US released oil from its emergency stockpile. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 319.5 million barrels as of July 3. The last time the inventory was that low was in 1983, when the reserve was still being filled.www.reuters.com/business/ene... (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-fall-by-62-million-lowest-level-since-2026-07-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

[Winehole23]

GCC attacks Iran?




Iranian officials and state media have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility.
A US official has told Al Jazeera that the country’s military was not behind the latest strikes on Iran. No one else has so far claimed responsibility, and Iran has not so far blamed any specific country.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/10/iran-war-live-fresh-attacks-on-iran-as-us-says-talks-still-on

[Winehole23]

Time and oil are on Iran's side


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMyqi5PakAAMjtj?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

a war that's bad for the USA might be very lucrative for the man running it


Brokers representing President Donald Trump (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/donald-trump/)purchased (https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/69AEAA9D7455ACD585258E27002DDEE1/%24FILE/Donald-J-Trump-2026-278ANNUAL.pdf) between $9.7 million and $24.3 million in stocks from a dozen arms manufacturers and other Pentagon contractors in 2025, including Palantir, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics, according to an RS analysis of a new financial disclosure released by the president last week.

The disclosure comes as the Trump administration (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/trump-administration/) launches new strikes on Iran (https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/iran/), oversees (https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/politics/trump-weapons-iran-defense-production-act) a historic weapons stockpiling effort at home, and calls (https://quincyinst.org/research/trumps-1-5-trillion-defense-budget-request-unhinged-unaffordable-and-unnecessary/#) for a $1.5 trillion defense budget, all of which benefit many of the companies in which he has invested.

Trump’s brokerage firms are prohibited (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/inside-trumps-stock-trading-surge.html) from accepting trade requests from the president and his family. However, he has not (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/us/politics/inside-trumps-stock-trading-surge.html) put his assets into a blind trust, meaning Trump could know what stocks he owns and influence policy to benefit those companies. His income quadrupled from 2024 to 2025, his first year in office.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-defense-stocks/

[Blake]

a war that's bad for the USA might be very lucrative for the man running it

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-defense-stocks/

That would make a lot of sense why he's been trolling for places to attack over the years.

[velik_m]

China temporarily bans helium exports as US-Iran tensions flare again

BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China announced on Friday a temporary export ban on ​helium, effective immediately, as resumption of military conflict in #the Middle East threatens to trigger new shortages of the gas critical for chip manufacturing.

Earlier this year, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran led to helium ​shortages, disrupting companies globally, including in China, where the ​AI industry increasingly relies on domestic chips for training and ⁠running AI models. Helium is essential for heat management in ​semiconductor production.

The helium ban is the latest example of Beijing seeking ​to prevent domestic shortages of critical materials by curbing exports. It has previously imposed similar measures on fuel, fertilisers and sulphuric acid.

China is also looking ​to boost domestic chip manufacturing capacity and reduce the industry's dependence ​on cutting-edge Nvidia semiconductors that fall under U.S. export controls.
...


https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-announces-temporary-export-ban-helium-2026-07-10/

[Facts]

Helium we use mostly comes from radioactive decay underground. It gets trapped in natural gas formations.

It is used in electronics manufacturing, and coolant for machines like MRIs.

It is getting very expensive.

[Facts]

Global oil reserves are reaching their fucntional minimums within the next few weeks, and will no longer be able to augment global oil production.

When that happens the price of oil will go up, quite a bit. Even if the shooting stopped tomorrow, and the flow of oil resumed to prewar levels, this will still happen.

Once that happens, it will drive the price of food up even further than it is going up now.

The attack on Iran was a very bad idea for the global economy.

Trump bears full responsiblity for the starvation and impoverishment of many people.

He will not live much longer.

Many people will be happy when he dies.

[Winehole23]

Trump is the principal villain of history in the 21st century so far, so that roughly tallies.

It's risky to predict macro specifically and well, it isn't at all discreet to predict the death of others and the reaction thereto.

We'll see, eh?

[Winehole23]

Iran shot a missile at a commercial vessel, the US attacked Iran, Iran counterattacked at least five GCC countries including Qatar and Oman

[Winehole23]

war is on, pending any timely temporary pause of hostilities about when the markets open tomorrow night

[Blake]

A deal to make a deal which is a better deal than the last deal will be in place soon. Art of the deal.

[Winehole23]

last week we had beaucoup mid week warring

a ver

[Winehole23]

As War restarts, I keep hearing "tactical success, strategic failure" as a summary of US-Israel war on Iran because of enormous destruction of Iran's military and economic capacity & regime decapitation. But its better described as "tactical failure, strategic failure". Good note by @policytensor

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cmvp2dfgs7qrfjo5n27limmf/bafkreiedudd7lb2r76gxqs7tgyyhbsmyyjjjwpdv3ectjxpyl 5s7q3fhai

https://bsky.app/profile/convolver.bsky.social/post/3mqhtnoo5sk2b

[Winehole23]

Iran is not a major power, it’s a largely failed regional power, but they can practice A2AD from onshore while we have to project naval and air assets at great expense to counter them. Hormuz is basically the training level for China/Taiwan, and we aren’t doing well at it.

[Blake]

Yah... boots on the ground is just a matter of time at this rate.

[Winehole23]

Yah... boots on the ground is just a matter of time at this rate.unless Trump starts drafting Americans, there's not enough boots to hold and control Iran and too short a runway

also, the resulting energy crunch would basically bake in a worldwide recession

war could break out beyond the region

[Winehole23]

where's hater?

[Winehole23]

“We're going to keep the strait, and we'll probably run it. We'll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we'll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that,” Trump said in a phone interview on Fox News' Fox & Friends.

[Winehole23]

“We guarded the strait for 50 years, and we never got paid for it. We guarded it for nothing, but now we will make money.”

[Winehole23]

Trump has been talking about a US tollbooth in the Persian Gulf since the Tanker War of the 1980s




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreie7uyes22mt27hh6mehr5tpd72r5n5nexccsd6pnalii tjrvqcuj4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ekts44pfepbmryv2h633onqu/bafkreiej4um6f3kony2i4wtmxoeybw2n4wvnxj4cr2uj2htjm afdp3qheu

[Winehole23]

There's a term for when you set up a "protection" scheme where it wasn't needed before and then demand money for it

[Winehole23]

US blockade starting tomorrow


The renewed naval blockade hasn't come into effect yet, due to a legal requirement to notify ships owners 24 hours in advance. A U.S. official said the U.S. military central command will announce the specific timing later on Monday.-Axios

[Blake]

Trump has been talking about a US tollbooth in the Persian Gulf since the Tanker War of the 1980s

Gee I wonder who will ultimately be paying those tolls

[Winehole23]

Gee I wonder who will ultimately be paying those tollsnobody, since Trump isn't going to do it

no way the GCC goes for a Trump toll that's 10x more than the Iranian one that's intolerable to them

[Winehole23]

Trump redeclares war on Iran to restart the 60 day clock on Congressional approval


President Donald Trump formally notified lawmakers this weekend that the nation is once again at war with Iran, giving his administration another 60-day clock to use the military in the region without congressional approval.https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/13/trump-notifies-congress-of-new-war-against-iran-00995170

[Winehole23]

gift link while it lasts


Mr. Ahmadinejad’s 2024 visit to the university and a second one the following year were part of a yearslong Israeli effort to groom him as an intelligence asset who, when the time came, could be installed as Iran’s new leader (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html), according to both American and Iranian officials familiar with the operation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence.


Recruiting Mr. Ahmadinejad was of such priority for Israel that the country’s then-spy chief David Barnea even traveled to the Hungarian capital in 2024 to meet with Mr. Ahmadinejad personally, according to former American officials. Soon afterward, they said, Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, notified the C.I.A. that it had been in contact with Mr. Ahmadinejad.


Israel’s decision to build a regime-change plan around Mr. Ahmadinejad is an extraordinary twist in the saga of the country’s relations with the former president, who was known for accelerating Iran’s nuclear program, calling regularly for the destruction of Israel and denying the Holocaust.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/us/politics/israel-mahmoud-ahmadinejad-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xVA.e1N7.uAiDNN8 D9qiO&smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

Trump's fantasy US tollbooth will be replaced by fantasy trade deals


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[Winehole23]

lol thinking that GCC countries will invest massively in the US after the US wrecked their security by starting a dumb war with Iran

[Winehole23]

shortages, inflation, demand destruction and recession become more probable the longer this war drags on


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibp2tcfvkxflk4njcb5wvqmjv2cqeardcaujmbqimoxd dcfzpsxvq

[Winehole23]

so we escalate

what's the path to victory?

[Winehole23]

historically, punishment campaigns don't work

why will it work this time?

[Winehole23]

YEMEN'S HOUTHIS ARE REPORTEDLY PREPARING TO SHUT THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT ON BEHALF OF IRAN. THE WATERWAY CARRIES ROUGHLY 10–12% OF GLOBAL MARITIME TRADE

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:afucvpwfwrd35te62yqccbhz/bafkreibe2mk6v2jij2nbsdr2ypedk4wm3q66j33fygog2k3ri yxohqshua

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-16-at-3.37.06%E2%80%AFPM.png

[Winehole23]

escalation trap

reportedly this took about 13% of Kuwait's water supply offline


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:3bqvbzpwgi5mqeqs6qlym26j/bafkreie4vo3zyuj7ug4ojersvtvcw6lm2wk6oq4xtkxs3cipw rnvyescky

[Winehole23]

losing the Daily Caller

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4x2n25hyaykkxz37qchwmhqc/bafkreid7lu7bghhvymtvus7x4hiis5kmkcs2kzxmzdc7ju25m qg3zi4p6i

[Facts]

shortages, inflation, demand destruction and recession become more probable the longer this war drags on


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibp2tcfvkxflk4njcb5wvqmjv2cqeardcaujmbqimoxd dcfzpsxvq


This is already built in. Shutting in wells becomes harder to reverse as you go along. sooner or later you have to cap wells, and getting the oil field back up and running to where it was before is months to years.

Even if they stopped tomorrow, which seems remote to put it charitably, AND they had all the tankers ready to go in and resume shipment, which they are not, AND there no mines, it would still take months to get that oil to the places it used to go (Asia mostly). THEN you would have to fill up storage at refineries to spin them back up, THEN you would still have to refill all those strategic reserves that have been severly depleted. This process will take YEARS, at best.

Oil is going to be expensive for a while, and when the national reserves reach their bottom pretty soon, they will not be able to subsidize supply. Then you can expect north of 100 easy, potentially over 200.

Coupled with the disintegration of the russian empire, which will take that oil off the market likely for decades, due to the nature of their siberian production. Russia was already facing a slow spiral due to de-industrialization and rank corruption, and a collapsing demography, it seems likely that they will never recover from the damage being done by their pointless war.

Shits gonna get bleak, yo.

[Facts]

escalation trap

reportedly this took about 13% of Kuwait's water supply offline

wife and I have played unofficial foster parents to a small number of young people through accidents of happenstance. One of those kids joined the military, and is now a diesel mechanic in an ADA unit in Quwait(?). He describes them as being "busy", and some of that is targeted at them specifically. So, I worry. Went to his tech training graduation, and those kids are so very young. I was a decade older than the most senior NCO I met.

Stupid war waged by a stupid, evil man.

[Facts]

so we escalate

what's the path to victory?

The only way the US wins, is instatement of the draft, invasion and long term occupation of Iran.

Theoretically possible, in the way that a landslide could theoretically spontaneously assemble a functional 747.

Best case scenario for all involved, including the US would have been the US surrender, which was what the MOU was.

Now, that is out the window. We have conclusively shown to be not worth negotiating with.

One strong feature of persian culture is that they view struggle against injustice as worth giving ones life for, to what I have been told by someone who I kind of trust to know. This war is tailor made to appeal to that.

There is no path to US "victory" here. The best we can hope for would pre-war status quo, but Iran is going to use its grip on the SOH to extract rent on all ships, so we pretty much lost from the first shot, which is what every wargame we ever tested out said would happen, and why no president has been stupid enough to try. Netenyahu got exactly the war he wanted to prop himself up indefinitely. Trump the rube.

Saudis will scramble to build pipelines and charge fees to the quwaitis et al to get around this. Again, years before pre-war flows.

[Blake]

losing the Daily Caller

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4x2n25hyaykkxz37qchwmhqc/bafkreid7lu7bghhvymtvus7x4hiis5kmkcs2kzxmzdc7ju25m qg3zi4p6i

Easy answer

[Blake]

If Trump declares we need boots on the ground and activates a draft, the Republicans can kiss a whole lot of mid terms goodbye

[Winehole23]

it appears some people have made a lot of money off knowing what Trump was going to say beforehand

I wonder if Trump got a cut


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5cn3kbi4g5blrtahon34xbu4/bafkreic6rteqf2rngn6u37mbej36a6uw62ydfo3ic33ne45ua b5mlgpe6mhttps://abcnews.com/US/doj-probing-26-billion-oil-trades-related-iran/story?id=132738007

[Winehole23]

attacking waterworks is a dastardly crime


Kuwait’s civilian infrastructure is certainly being hit hard by the IRGC.


A power and desalination plant was hit for a second day. That is significant because that is critical infrastructure for Kuwait. The country doesn’t have permanent lakes or rivers. It has very little rain. So, 90 percent of its drinking water comes from seawater desalination.


Two plants have been attacked over the past few days, out of nine major desalination plants in the country, according to Kuwaiti figures.
This has been a significant attack and will have a significant impact.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/18/iran-war-live-us-and-iran-exchange-attacks-for-7th-consecutive-night

[Winehole23]

Across the Persian Gulf coastline from Iran sit more than 400 desalination plants operated by Gulf Cooperation Council states.In Kuwait, approximately 90% of drinking water comes from desalination; in Oman the figure is 86%, in Saudi Arabia 70%, and in the UAE 42 %.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreic5gpp452l763z45ca5qrtm3d2pxw4rutfcvr3jggfxr nk3nvcuve
(https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social)



RAPIDAN: “.. How long will it take for a prolonged US blockade to bring the Iranian regime to its knees?

“.. While estimates in Tehran range from 1-3 years, our view falls in the middle of that range (18-24 months).”

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreidmhf2zwg2k5ouijpljauju2qetxbtss4b73vbsmetxs o4su3uiw4

[Winehole23]

2078530691109974522

[Blake]

2078530691109974522

THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS FOR THE BRAVE SOLDIERS WHO DIED DEFENDING US AGAINST...

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreia4vpx7p6wyjejda3w4emciq6qwxp5kth7wr5gho462q 6gcztgvv4

[Winehole23]

Trump put a target on our backs by impulsively starting a war with Iran that he has no idea how to win

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:dsa4uibhvbldyrnkkziijpsg/bafkreiazibp2aeihmrlsgdca5wshcqebner5hjtxatkfo5s3q tqvbpqfee
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[Winehole23]

if Trump wanted to win the war with Iran he shouldn't have surrendered first -- Iran got $$$ and time to shore up its military

if his choices then were really -- as Trump said -- either continued war or Great Depression 2.0, it's hard to see how the math for the US and the world has improved since then


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigb4cloodnzvomepeqzoyv4fmq77hze3ovnq23lb2tjo cestz45hu

[CosmicCowboy]

July 20 - Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, they said on Monday, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis:
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.
HOW BIG IS THE RISK TO GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS?
It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out ​a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbour along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping.
Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern #gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.S.
With Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously.
Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.S. attacked it on February 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy ​shock.
Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal. Those heading to Asia ​go south through Bab el-Mandeb.
Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a ⁠year earlier.
Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year.
That has provided a lifeline for the energy ​market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.
When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports ​were flowing freely.
WHO ARE THE HOUTHIS AND ARE THEY CLOSING RED SEA ENERGY ROUTES ON BEHALF OF IRAN?
The Houthis emerged as a military, political and religious movement in north Yemen in the 1990s, fighting guerrilla wars against the government in Sanaa.
They have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised, government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbours with missiles and drones.
However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognised government said it had struck Sanaa airport ​to stop an Iranian plane landing.
The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and in response fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.
A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's ​Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed.
Iran champions the Houthis as part of its regional "Axis of Resistance", which includes Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi'ite militias, though its ties with the Yemeni movement are less clear than with #those other ⁠groups.
The Houthis do not recognise Iran's supreme leader as their ultimate religious authority in the same way Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups do. Their motivations are mainly domestic, though the group is ideologically aligned with Iran.
The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah. The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf.
WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THE HOUTHIS ATTACKED RED SEA SHIPS BEFORE?
After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel ​and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were ​doing so in support of Palestinians.
The attacks severely disrupted ⁠global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa — a far longer, more expensive route.
Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.
A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red ​Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a defensive campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles.
But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely ​with the Gaza ceasefire in October.
Last ⁠month the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran.
However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.
WHAT HAVE THEY DONE DURING THE LATEST IRAN WAR?
While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had ⁠been comparatively quiet.
The ​group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it".
Iranian commanders have repeatedly ​warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April.
Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.
That may now have changed with their announcement ​of the blockade on Monday against what they called the "criminal" Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including with last week's strike.

[Winehole23]

"mediators propose ceasefire to negotiate a return to the previous ceasefire deal"

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidcimhfzudunairzdi77ivlrr2mmbchtcewtkhh7ecey mp2dptwne

[ChumpDumper]

Ukraine is actually helping to keep crude prices relatively lower by forcing Russia to put out more crude on the world market since they can't refine it themselves as much anymore.

[Winehole23]

buffers much lower

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibhxxlekbarnqrwc4tzrlensdemihund4hsbgi3q66e5 5ojh2unea

[Winehole23]

~90 million people, ~950,000 troops, 3x the size of Iraq

lots of mountains and desert

how many dead Americans is Trump willing to stand on to create the perception of a win?

can't be done without boots on the ground or nukes


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xhmwhdq4pj2wh5jeucxjhay2/bafkreiatpemlsykbxzakebajz46d32v4ohfkkfa466wt7smer eupbh4kim

[ChumpDumper]

Fortunately, Trump's dying will be an opportunity to pull out of this particular death spiral.

[Winehole23]

Fortunately, Trump's dying will be an opportunity to pull out of this particular death spiral.I wouldn't count on that happening promptly, but it would be an opportunity for the USA to stop doing something stupid

[Winehole23]

honestly, I think Trump started the chaos too soon, the bad economic effects will arrive well before 2028

blaming the resulting mess on Dems might not work this time, not like when he surrendered to the Taliban and threw it in Biden's lap

[Winehole23]

(in fairness to Donald Trump, in his dishonest, scheming mind, he may not have meant to honor his deal with the Taliban)

[Winehole23]

(didn't count on getting thumped by Biden at the polls in 2020)

[Winehole23]

Trump isn't so great for the international reputation of the USA, braindead proclamations like this highlight a shitbird regime




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreicf73chvl5d7ziogmdgxncbj3b64cy53miv3kjmf3pcr dov5grrkm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibhzmmsbdcj4qruputamldqkj6dl3wxkre5xlbdflse7 2yep7veui

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihyhj557msi4azbb3cekbwa26kb222rkmrzc7apiyasr 2zui6tyzy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:kv2chjzrvjro2xdpe4lh2npb/bafkreid423dyntrv5gy7juoce7l6t2jd35mtkasfh2f456c5c gybc7cc2y

[Blake]

Trump isn't so great for the international reputation of the USA, braindead proclamations like this highlight a shitbird regime

What if they shoot with slingshots

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u23uzbgypuxy5vhzfahm642b/bafkreic4cnyd5skbct33sjgwl4nyaryxncslk2d4fpn5wl2wm a4j2stubq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreihkfycunjpvv3snbipntpag2lqrpfmuhnxzkm7ttsxnz ytc6hrm6q

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ehwxw3pmjqekxu5rnb3frknp/bafkreifmech6wx4dxo2bfgfxi5d5ndmlm3zijx6rcxnyeboqb 56tx7ouji

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ehwxw3pmjqekxu5rnb3frknp/bafkreifmech6wx4dxo2bfgfxi5d5ndmlm3zijx6rcxnyeboqb 56tx7ouji

Uh oh is Fox finally turning on Trump?

[Winehole23]

Uh oh is Fox finally turning on Trump?it's more accurate to say that Trump has turned on Fox's viewership/his own base on this topic

[Winehole23]

another war powers resolution passes



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:njhuquor23vkkeamltaxdsnz/bafkreifmoh3jelmdp6tr2lpdx5ap7ykyus7yrwxpkkvpjiyr5 gzotc736q

[Blake]

another war powers resolution passes

Spineless Republicans forever towing Trump's line. I hope they get the shit kicked out of them in the midterms.

[Winehole23]

WSJ


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreie3lml6pe3lk7noso2t22qe4yuniav4djsteqh7lx5s5 dlavgiwpy

[Blake]

WSJ

OBLITERATED¡!!!@!@@!!!!!!!

[Winehole23]

it was a clear mistake for Trump to surrender first

now he faces the prospect of surrendering too late or starting a ground war to win it

...at the cost of a global energy shock and a worldwide recession

[Winehole23]

where is hater?

payaso Trump is very plausibly starting WWIII

[Blake]

where is hater?

payaso Trump is very plausibly starting WWIII

He bowed out after Ukraine started attacking Russia

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN_KJtiXUAAA7Re?format=png&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif46sba5xskzqnghxnefmad5bqdvzrai4jtpwphqkldh jsq2vdata