Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[ChumpDumper]

So they still have nuke capability then I'm guessing
Best case is probably putting it off a few years.

Where's k pop tsa to answer these questions?
https://media.baamboozle.com/uploads/images/777743/1674709742_864416_gif-url.gif

[CosmicCowboy]

All the bluster about the US removing the nuclear "dust" (SIC) is just bullshit. Iran has Trump by his economic balls and isn't about to let go.

[Winehole23]

Israeli Channel 12’s Barak Ravid says that he has obtained the key points of the MoU between the US and Iran:

— Iran, the US and their allies will cease hostilities, including in Lebanon
— Iran reiterates its commitment not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons
— US and Iran pledge to resolve issue of disposal of enriched uranium stockpile
— US and Iran to discuss enrichment issue and Iran’s nuclear needs
— Iran will maintain status quo on its nuclear program as long as negotiations continue
— The US will lift the naval blockade, not impose new sanctions, and will not increase forces in the region during the negotiations.
— Iran will make the necessary arrangements to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, free of charge, for 60 days.
— US pledges to make frozen Iranian assets available for use with implementation of MoU
— If a final agreement is reached, the US will withdraw its forces within 30 days and lift all sanctions on Iran.
— Any final agreement will include a plan to establish a $300 billion fund for Iran’s reconstruction.
— US to give Iran temporary sanctions waivers to sell oil during negotiations
— Negotiations will be held between Iran and Oman with the participation of Gulf policy to define “arrangements regarding shipping and maritime services”

[Winehole23]

"It's a very strong deal. Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong."

[Winehole23]

Do you still think Israel is calling the shots, Ball Buster?

:lol

[Winehole23]

CNN purports to have a copy of the MOU

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl

[Winehole23]

Trump indirectly acknowledges the energy cliff and also that he is the dumb mf who precipitated the closing of Hormuz, damaging the world economy


The alternative to this deal was a global recession. There are stupid people who want to see a global recession. They are just stupid people. The Strait of Hormuz would never have been opened.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreichqemfjny4kte6oecvxhwyusnebyc5wtmf5wlvuywwm dhqxni4q4

[ChumpDumper]

2066983311314911510

https://x.com/itsjustmarky/status/2066983311314911510

[Winehole23]

https://compote.slate.com/images/66effc2b-d057-4aea-9eb1-be1342aa6050.jpeg?width=780&height=520&rect=3240x2160&offset=542x0


Trump quietly invoked the Defense Production Act last week to address rising concerns within his administration about the shortfall of munitions (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-no-new-munitions-contracts-concerns-weapons-shortage-rcna342451), according to a memo filed in the Federal Register on Tuesday.

“I hereby find that conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs,” Trump wrote in a June 11 memo to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-12286.pdf). Production constraints and supply chain concerns “may impair the ability of the United States to produce, sustain, and expand the availability of munitions, missiles, and equipment required for the national defense,” he wrote.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-forcing-us-companies-manufacture-weaponry-rcna350419

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7vyotxftc2h757234ouonk6d/bafkreidvenxv3zy6qrf4vif5sdyne3irqt4huvjw4fhcc6va6 nnvhouw5i

[Blake]

https://compote.slate.com/images/66effc2b-d057-4aea-9eb1-be1342aa6050.jpeg?width=780&height=520&rect=3240x2160&offset=542x0

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-forcing-us-companies-manufacture-weaponry-rcna350419

Huh I wonder who will reap the benefits of the weapons contracts. Surely it'll all be on the up and up, absolutely no conflict of interest whatsoever.

[CosmicCowboy]

The full text

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have jointly agreed in good faith on [ __ date] on the following:

1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

[Winehole23]

https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.SNRlEzrjHg1hb1vyZ75-3wHaHY?r=0&cb=thfc1falcon2&pid=ImgDet&w=178&h=178&c=7&dpr=1.5&o=7&rm=3


a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

[Winehole23]

down blended on site

[Winehole23]

fast fast fast


The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.


11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

[Winehole23]

snap take, I don't have confidence either side can keep this agreement

[Blake]

HEY, IF IRAN PROMISES TO NOT MAKE NUCLEAR WEAPONS WITH THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM THEN I BELIEVE THEM.

[Winehole23]

HEY, IF IRAN PROMISES TO NOT MAKE NUCLEAR WEAPONS WITH THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM THEN I BELIEVE THEM.in god we trust, the US pays cash

Trump is already talking -- truthfully enough and without irony -- about "giving Iran its money back"

[Winehole23]

it's not the same crew that surrendered to the Taliban in 2020

(same commander-in-chief, though)

[Winehole23]

of all the US surrender monkeys, Trump is possibly most apt of all to surrender to the inferior power

first Afghanistan, now Iran

[Blake]

581171685186994176

[Winehole23]

why do people take advice from a man who won't take his own advice?

[Winehole23]

does not project strength, but even-handedness

an odd pivot for Trump


I'm saying that if other countries have [ballistic missiles], it's a little unfair for [Iran] not to have some

[Winehole23]

*kicks sand* in Saudi Arabia's face

[Winehole23]

I didn't see that part in the published text, is this just vibes?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:y77n77kdqzhbg647blkfypyr/bafkreiffuewoagnr7dnqtr342ompk3dl2tial2hwtigjbjq3l y4lpwrumq

[Winehole23]

US WAR AIMS: Unmentioned or punted to further talks.

IRAN GETS: Immediate concessions, including economic benefits.

[Blake]

why do people take advice from a man who won't take his own advice?

Because he held up a Bible that one time

[Winehole23]

https://thf.bing.com/th/id/OIF.PRi8FE4WR1FSI3y0wU5yVQ?w=270&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfc1falcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


"It's signed. I signed it in Versailles. I just signed it."

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreiampsaa2j4gyyzpqrkn5rklntl33p4azeuledbl4nry7 7cml76vwi

[Winehole23]

if Trump decides to break US law by waiving sanctions on Iran without approval from Congress, what can we do about it?

story of his whole presidency, tbh


I don’t think the president has the authority under domestic law to issue these waivers. The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/1191/text) (INARA) of 2015 applies here and temporarily bars a president from waiving sanctions against Iran. The executive branch has counterarguments, to be sure. And it’s doubtful that any institution will make the president comply with INARA in any event.https://www.execfunctions.org/p/the-president-is-legally-barred-from

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreib2dcl2ssizcqud2eakpkne5vr4rkzy7npuu6nik4lir 3l5uk2kyy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qfflfersmonljuxmm6iyb445/bafkreiemi6bziysnxdfcsavsxuvwsxaiw53co35puqq34sv5o 5vs2s7aby

[Winehole23]

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k1PKpXTM/vIOMdNOPgzubX09xeXXEOkPM2o4M8BfA76tgrqQHE6y4U8Qzcf mR9j/vb/kvRHKz5IEI3w/45H zUHq/3/SXJOh3mh33sBnz7xXpkaInKrColbgIYEAD8AAAA


Peter Doocy: “A wise man once said, in January 2020: ‘Iran has never won a war, but has never lost a negotiation.’”

President Trump: “Who said that?”

Reporter: “Donald Trump.”

[Winehole23]

twice as much in inflation-adjusted dollars as the Marshall Plan, I've heard


a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tob7zx2zlwk35yivtllqa7wo/bafkreienh5nupqjnrhuryvljz4d3d67cro3jgffpnpsk5itcr coo75wz3u
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jyxwd6sq74rce52uv7kvgbhi/bafkreibna3ggpdfe6a5ylyc5a4jx34neyyl3bgnybc3bpseco 4uedfzdhehttps://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-israeli-ultra-hawks-who-feel-betrayed-by-trumps-iran-deal

[Winehole23]

Within the boundaries of the military force that the United States was capable of performing with its allies, Iran comprehensively inflicted economic and political damage such that it forced the other side to the negotiation table looking for any possible deal.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rddeinqb45gzem3n3zyma7im/bafkreigiyqfy7brku4jjigxihjyflriehxrmvwyfl5it2vng7 fp3eqahxu

[Winehole23]

astonishingly this narrative line is genuine, not AI-generated



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gouysuoxatjdb5bjcqe4sfh7/bafkreibvdzxk64u373tb4lo76hg6pjrmyrkoesavkgao6mds4 e2nekfiie

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ekts44pfepbmryv2h633onqu/bafkreiezwnj2ojxpomm2u7bau6tkjaukbeohvhkzs5ecre6wf 2qgoolhga

[velik_m]

https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213078681750573056

[velik_m]

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2067282827704451380

[Winehole23]

Trump is still in an escalation trap...getting branded as a loser by his own camp must sting



Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement with Iran has now been released (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/us/politics/us-iran-agreement-deal-text.html), and it confirms what we all expected: He got nothing of any significance. A surprising number of his allies agree. Fox News personalities, visibly (https://x.com/Acyn/status/2067306134332146158) angry and rattled, are saying (https://www.mediamatters.org/us-iran-relations/right-wing-media-revolt-against-trumps-proposed-mou-iran) they’ve “very skeptical” of the deal, that it “doesn’t feel like a victory,” that the U.S. “lost the most,” and that Iran is “better off (https://x.com/Acyn/status/2067306134332146158)” than before. Others are already throwing JD Vance under the bus (https://www.mediamatters.org/us-iran-relations/right-wing-hawks-absolve-trump-iran-mou-responsibility-blame-vance-instead), with one even suggesting the agreement is so bad that it... might have “let the president down.”https://newrepublic.com/article/212027/angry-rattled-trump-fox-allies-blurt-live-tv-lost

[Winehole23]

s88aryNUMhE


In a talk shortly before the Administration released the final language, Robert Pape described long form not only why the MOU was a US capitulation but also the energy cliff still being in play meant Iran was ideally positioned to extract more concessions over the negotiation period

[Winehole23]

Israel views the now revealed MOU as a massive strategic defeat. Here is what Jerusalem is actually afraid of and why each fear is real:

1) Clause 10 issues oil waivers the moment the MOU is signed, before Iran gives up anything concrete. Israel watched the Iranian economy approach collapse during the war. Now it gets crude sales, banking access, and eventually the frozen assets under Clause 11. Iran can now rebuild its economy.

2) Clause 8 lets Iran dilute its enriched stockpile on its own soil under IAEA supervision rather than ship the uranium out. Israel always assessed Tehran would refuse to surrender the material or the enrichment right, and the text confirms it. Trump declining to rule out low-level enrichment tells Israel the US baseline has moved.

3) The theaters are now linked. Clause 1 ties a permanent end of fighting in Lebanon to the broader Iran deal. Israel fought to keep Hezbollah and Iran as separate files now there will be pressure on them from the US to restrain.

4) Israel reads the text as requiring no pullback before a final agreement, which buys time. But the Americans want to accelerate, with a fifth political and military round in Washington next week. The expectation in Jerusalem is mounting pressure to halt operations in south Lebanon.

5) Iranian prestige is way up. Iran defeated both America and Israel and announced Tehran will charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which will not return to its prewar state. The narrative matters because it shapes deterrence, and right now Iran owns it.

6) One senior Israeli source told Ynet, "Iran emerged a global power, and Israel went from a regional power to the world's punching bag. In such a situation it will be very hard for Netanyahu to oppose a withdrawal from Lebanon. The pressure will grow."

Israel is worried that this opens the road to a more stable Iranian regime, with a path to nuclear weapons, a revived resistance axis and Israeli options in Lebanon blocked. A strategic disaster for Israel.https://x.com/academic_la/status/2067356106813510129

[Winehole23]

apparently, yes


Does the president have legal authority to bind the United States to an armistice agreement for a war he had no legal authority to start?

[Winehole23]

operation blame JD

Witkoff and Kushner are ghosts, I guess


https://thfvnext.bing.com/th?id=OIF.iKmKZBjy%2bmlMKE2%2bCFliwQ&w=316&h=167&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfvnextfalcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3

Ben Shapiro: "This MOU appears to be a disaster that does not achieve any of the signal goals that were set by the administration at the beginning ... in my opinion the vice president, the chief negotiator, has not well served the president"

[Winehole23]

https://thfvnext.bing.com/th/id/OIP.widxRoiq5bIbB3ZlJYJcaAHaE3?w=273&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfvnextfalcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


What bothers me is you've seen people in Bibi's cabinet who have come out & attacked the deal & very personally attacked the president. My message to them is Donald J Trump is the only head in the state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel

[Winehole23]

it's not Trump's first rodeo


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5yvxi7ifij4pizlopvfpcovz/bafkreidcxk4stbimtcmax3m5ypvjkhcoyp5fl7o2e7kwcc2h3 4uu6kd25q

[Winehole23]

Hegseth blames gulf allies, who Trump put under the crosshairs by attacking Iran


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:2amnkge5a6hplfwyesmxqkfl/bafkreids47xkervietjako67h5isnmpjziyyrppqtdf73n6gz ey2wuv3dm

[Winehole23]

US lifts blockade


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6y3honhec2jch2ryrbuyx5a5/bafkreievrnyy2paa3ghj3dw7ifrxgrhqbx32sy76hpod6ac3t vxmtwaqli

[Winehole23]

GOP Senators bridle at tribute money for Iran


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigfxjleqgmr3573ubyt5ihiwu7isoqlpd2gkpmjiwjkm wb2gcjfyy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:t46sqvutibvsmjgwn6r6izve/bafkreie72rpw7rtfmyrhq4f7ztlsnhc2lwrfrcr2bez5i3676 jpd2a5rfa

[CosmicCowboy]

"We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning." He elaborated that citizens would eventually plead, "Please, please... it's too much winning," to which he would respond, "No, it isn't. We have to keep winning."

[Blake]

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2067282827704451380

Wow what a humiliating fold. What a fucking idiot.

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:t46sqvutibvsmjgwn6r6izve/bafkreie72rpw7rtfmyrhq4f7ztlsnhc2lwrfrcr2bez5i3676 jpd2a5rfa

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE STUFF

[Blake]

This is all one big reason the potus is supposed to ask Congress to go to war. Seriously, fuck any of these cowardly weasely sycophants that complain now but didn't have the guts to stand up to him before.

[Blake]

GOP Senators bridle at tribute money for Iran

I'm asking because I don't know. If it's not taxpayers, where is the $300b fund coming from

[Winehole23]

I'm asking because I don't know. If it's not taxpayers, where is the $300b fund coming fromGulf allies may pony up protection money on their own account, but I don't see them fading the heat for the USA

There's been talk of a grandiose Witkoff/Kushner real estate development deal, but I tend to doubt Iran goes for that

In principle, treaty-type realtions ought to be approved by the US Senate

[Winehole23]

With the energy cliff looming, Iran has leverage to extract even more concessions from the US

[CosmicCowboy]

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/722810867_10162209941666805_1415690601945757070_n. jpg?stp=cp6_dst-jpg_tt6&cstp=mx1125x993&ctp=s590x590&_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=paJG6R3i--AQ7kNvwH4LvQr&_nc_oc=Adqxl63gh1jdPd56qYcvBAakYsqJNvHvnUYb1xJYLFC uIgeRDAXkDk0lsjk3XM_6seU&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&_nc_gid=qDugVuaF8-SJTdkakUw6VQ&_nc_ss=7b2a8&oh=00_Af-I4RbvwChH83Ltqhvx4cOs3IwsD28WZc9tYK-HmEbUSg&oe=6A3A4A62

[ChumpDumper]

With the energy cliff looming, Iran has leverage to extract even more concessions from the US

In some ways, the strait is better than a nuke. Evergreen, asymmetric and short-to-medium term unanswerable short of full scale war that only one small enemy might want.

[Winehole23]

dogwalked again


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pmyqirafcp3jqdhrl7crpq7t/bafkreifoembpmr3jqvfy464uj6ufejttcaa7yqy5o2ziaiwki oy2l4lesm

[Winehole23]

big media apologetics underway

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/opinion/iran-nuclear-deal-trump.html?smid=bsky-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

[Winehole23]

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/722810867_10162209941666805_1415690601945757070_n. jpg?stp=cp6_dst-jpg_tt6&cstp=mx1125x993&ctp=s590x590&_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=paJG6R3i--AQ7kNvwH4LvQr&_nc_oc=Adqxl63gh1jdPd56qYcvBAakYsqJNvHvnUYb1xJYLFC uIgeRDAXkDk0lsjk3XM_6seU&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&_nc_gid=qDugVuaF8-SJTdkakUw6VQ&_nc_ss=7b2a8&oh=00_Af-I4RbvwChH83Ltqhvx4cOs3IwsD28WZc9tYK-HmEbUSg&oe=6A3A4A62do you see this deal lasting two months, CC?

hard to picture for me

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:r4ve5hjtfjubdwrvlxcad62e/bafkreigesd72eewpou27i5y2hylvb3chbx5pauwrsznp6ylpq qs5jqxj2u

[Winehole23]

The Israeli military said it hit Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon overnight, with attacks still ongoing.

[Winehole23]

welp


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:lzfzawdilrmsfikvr4c6ytk4/bafkreifqcyalypigs7nf7eiifzetqevjfj76e7w7hml6zmrci a6khpynem

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiazdedqimvgaywkxbgek5zxr3won3gu63skboode42y2 t53uwwkoi

[Winehole23]

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, gargling blood as usual


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tgw3d4hvw3x5ijrxax7lg26u/bafkreihltzf6h3kzjlbjg762gbchboqvmef7cjp3dey3kgxvg mf2an4xta

[Winehole23]

Miriam Adelson's newspaper



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreifdvxt3ijklysclzbwys5xqbjjejof4ni7wt3gdxaxpn xxonjktwq

[Winehole23]

Iranian state media


Article 1 of the MoU requires the end of the war in Lebanon and the preservation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore, as long as the US does not "rein in Israel," there is no justification for opening the Strait of Hormuz or continuing negotiations on additional issues.-Tasnim

[Winehole23]

The US has “relayed” to Iran that Israel will not further escalate its attacks in Lebanon as the Trump administration seeks to get high-stakes nuclear talks with Iran on track, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Asked whether the US would provide those guarantees, a source said, “Hezbollah violated the ceasefire. Israel has agreed to let it be, which was relayed to the Iranians, and it’s up to Hezbollah to stop.”-CNN

[Winehole23]

Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire set to begin at 4 p.m. local time on Friday, a senior U.S. official said.

[CosmicCowboy]

do you see this deal lasting two months, CC?

hard to picture for me

If it doesn't it will be because of Israel. They are in a no win situation. Trump has declared victory and won't be the one to kill the deal. Even if Hezbolla temporarily doesn't fire any missiles at Israel they will still be there. Without Israel then the existing Lebanese government is fucked because Hezbolla is stronger than their army and can overthrow the government leaving Iran II on Israels northern border. If Isreal keeps fighting Hezbolla then Iran shuts the Strait again and Israel gets blamed for the worldwide recession.

[Winehole23]

Iran taking control of Hormuz -- Trump is primarily to blame


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreigcendjygmlrog2vcwa33xspankal2kch3mqscmjbe7n sovgggvmu

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreidfbjh6oyjc3onqlfuoswrooqdpnny2iisaflaebd6xr akpsufmhq

[Winehole23]

Iran says vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be required to carry compulsory Iran-approved insurance.The coverage is currently being offered free of charge, but Tehran says it may impose fees in the future.

[CosmicCowboy]

Iran just closed the strait again.

[Winehole23]

IRGC:


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nb6uhiglzowsdcbgwv2itwa7/bafkreihzuthmol5mwssbsr7k2gforwpvpikdqa572g2td5uj7 qo576qwfq

[ChumpDumper]

Iran just closed the strait again.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExa2Nza2xqd2JrbDkwbmlkdmZweGI0dnR 1Z2N1cm5oeDU1bHhscXQ3cyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/BmKLItgwfoHbcvVf8n/giphy.gif

[Winehole23]

France interfering with Trump's surrender:


French FM Barrot: France will veto lifting UN Security Council sanctions on Iran until nuclear talks meet its expectations and address Tehran's ballistic missiles and proxy forces.

[Winehole23]

there is a clock ticking for the Iranians here--their access to Chinese markets--and weapons in particular--is something Xi can throttle when *China's* economy crashes into recession and Iran is still standing in the way of a global recovery

[Winehole23]

Significant clashes between the IDF and Hezbollah in Nabatiyeh district, in southern Lebanon

[Blake]

France interfering with Trump's surrender:

Oh how the turn tables..

[Spurs Homer]

"CROOKED HILLARY!!!!!"

- Felon Donald

biden crime famileee!

[Winehole23]

a US war of indeterminate duration and scope in the middle east was always a strong possibility once Trump embarked of a war of choice with Iran, most of us have been alive long enough to have seen it happen before


Here's the thing: it doesn't matter if the IRGC's settlement and its actions in attempting to enforce it are unfair to Israel and America, or constrain them in bad faith ways, because the latter two started a direct conflict and, crucially, *lost*

This is what happens when you start a war of choice and then lose: the people who won get to set terms, decide whether or not you're abiding by them, and impose penalties or reopen hostilities if they decide you aren't. That's just how it works

The American and Israeli gamble was that Iran's control of the strait wouldn't matter. It did. The other gamble was that Iran wouldn't care about what happens in Lebanon. It does. These are the facts! It doesn't matter if we don't like them, because we *lost*

It's perfectly within Iran's interest to let American global interests (and frankly, everyone's global interests) twist in the wind while Israel tries to sabotage the deal, because they still hold the strait, and can let a wedge open between their two enemies. It's still a winning hand.

All of this to say, if you aren't prepared for the possibility that you might lose vital strategic and diplomatic leverage and be left at the mercy of another power, *don't start a war in the first place*https://bsky.app/profile/asherelbein.bsky.social/post/3monqwbv5ts2c

[Winehole23]

I am curious, under Obama diplomacy Iran participated in reasonable and good faith negotiations. Then it was torn to shreds by Trump which would make anyone not want to do that again. Now that they know they can force powerful entities to capitulate what stops them from spamming that strategy?

[Winehole23]

CENTCOM: Commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased June 20 as U.S. forces continued operating in the general area to support freedom of navigation.

[Winehole23]

"up is down"-ism is the party line

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieblgxdhfnhbi7vgps5vv3gmsazkmmtmhssx4gxsvr3q syihckws4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gnfshq54u5eoyuwp4bt5uepb/bafkreiacoivw7su7gkpuf2ajtvb2cmp2osb5idyj3f4lw6eo4 gywmoclr4

[Winehole23]

I think one of the things Iran is negotiating for, ultimately, is a meaningful rupture in the U.S.-Israeli relationship. Those conditions in the deal may not be meant to hold; they may be meant to maneuver the US into an untenably painful posture wrt Israel when they fail.


I think they’re betting that Trump is erratic enough to actually break the US-Israeli relationship. He’s already promised he could get Israel to stand down, so now his pride is involved. If he can’t even dictate to a US client state, it’ll make him feel super impotent & at that pt he just…does shit.

[Winehole23]

So now if you're Iran, all you have to do is keep saying "give us everything we want and we'll open the strait," knowing that the strait being closed is intolerable to the US but being unable to strike Lebanon is intolerable to Israel, and just see what happens

[Winehole23]

grandpa is on TILT


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreihvfnfpbgsmk2rhzjmb744svcpfvn5imogqku6gaq5xj bwvtivbei

[ChumpDumper]

Sure, you can't get tolls from a closed strait.

[Winehole23]

is the USA for freedom of navigation or not?

[ChumpDumper]

:lol Trump acting like he's the one who's gonna collect tolls

He really needs to concentrate on being a thirsty bisexual interior designer and get a show on TLC.

[CosmicCowboy]

Iran had DJT by the fuckung nuts and isn't about to let go. The Israel/hezbollah thing is existential for Israel. Hezbolla is stronger than the Lebanese army. If Trump neuters Israel then Hezbollah could possibly overthrow the Lebanese govt. And Israel will have Iran II on their northern border. If they continue to fight Hezbollah then Iran trips the world into recession and Trump and Israel get the blame. Trump is clearly trapped in a no win situation and is apparently too fucking stupid to even realize it.

[ChumpDumper]

Too late.

[Winehole23]

:lol Trump acting like he's the one who's gonna collect tolls

He really needs to concentrate on being a thirsty bisexual interior designer and get a show on TLC.Trump collecting a toll at global chokepoint is no better than Iran doing it -- dastardly

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreig3utfx3n7nvpbp7wgrcnhfzk4zhzq2w4gilo656ikmr phbkvfw5a

[Blake]

Trump collecting a toll at global chokepoint is no better than Iran doing it -- dastardly

Gee I wonder who the toll fees would ultimately get passed down to

[Winehole23]

new dolchstosslegende

it won't be long until domestic war critics are blamed for the loss too



As the war in Iran appears to come to a fragile close, Americans are left to wonder why it has accomplished so little. How could a middle power like Iran — geopolitically isolated, economically on the ropes after years of sanctions and beset by widespread protests — face down a global superpower that spent $29 billion and counting to end up in a weaker position than it started?

Put simply: Because the United States attempted to essentially go it alone. Acting only with Israel, President Trump believed he could use the unparalleled might of the U.S. military to overwhelm Iran and force it into submission. The president did not seek approval from the U.N. Security Council, as required by the United Nations Charter, making the war illegal from the start and thus radioactive for many of America’s traditional allies. He did not consult with partners in the region before starting a conflict that put them at direct risk. He was confident that if he dropped enough bombs, he would get what he wanted.

He was wrong. President Trump failed to understand that two can play at that game: Iran illegally closed the Strait of Hormuz by threatening to attack ships that entered. It launched drones and missiles against its neighbors. By the time President Trump decided to seek wider support to stop Tehran, it was too late to build a coalition. Even our NATO allies were unwilling to join his illegal war of choice, even though they, too, suffered from the crippling economic effects of Iran’s response.

Indeed, nations long allied with the United States did not just refuse calls to assist in the war; they wanted nothing to do with it. Several states, including stalwart allies, closed their airspace and bases to U.S. forces participating in the war effort. Spain denied (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/spain-closes-airspace-to-u-s-planes-involved-in-iran-war) both airspace access and the use of joint U.S.-Spanish bases for operations tied to the Iran conflict. France (https://www.newsweek.com/list-countries-denying-us-israeli-military-access-11762423) refused overflight for planes carrying U.S. military supplies to Israel. Italy and Switzerland restricted access, too. Britain, which has long celebrated its “special relationship” with America, engaged in an agonized debate about whether to allow its bases to be used, finally deciding to let U.S. forces rely on them only for “defensive” operations. “We are not getting involved in offensive action that the United States and Israel are taking,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer said (https://www.aol.com/articles/starmer-criticises-trump-over-iran-172223173.html).
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/21/opinion/america-allies-superpower-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.r1A.atfx.9Y7gfPF kyrr-&smid=url-share

[Winehole23]

Fox News: "President Trump spoke with Iranian officials overnight and said: You close the strait and you won't have a country. You won't even make it back to your f’ing country ... we'll take over the rest of the country.'"

[Winehole23]

you're sounding tuff this morning, Mr. President

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreifatxztflvszb2z3dq4nxfprb5eshaqljen2tlrvhjgg 7ap5djeui

[Winehole23]

this threat comes early in the day, there's plenty of daylight for a market soothing climbdown later

[Winehole23]

letting Trump blow up negotiations is a choice, but I guess if they had to take Trump's cellphone away that would be an admission that he is unfit

[Winehole23]

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/webp;base64,UklGRoIXAABXRUJQVlA4IHYXAACQkwCdASq AfgAPp1MoEslpKalJrJqCNATiWVu4EIuzfz8dpc7NdtXCh7R0y OnPzCbO 3Hy/WDAbu5XDlzPZO7g5v0MvmULvRuo/DW0j0x7h0ha721NTtu hq1qAxmY/szZ36bY5d071KFtrZqorwNB1beP4l7PMAhAb xHBbd6HdmHZf9bRVi4pQq9juKWz9I8GNDaGwU2YdlkCUOqDqWF xMoIgC45SHCSwwY/yR0M/ tt6kM/vbAkDuR3LXBASZ/79HP6EkuK6XMtPAoPDzWB6VGhXT7MzWoj/tHuTxKZGyeCCwy8A4GPVQ4TrriLF8fNUj oxgNcBV6GZGqTLdLTpvfOW6T9haTP52ci4c03jPsJOg7CWmSgR bOlsb pqAiFraPmrpCGACrB9a XDCIpSz2Ri/l/ EkOjKlcjoMpQTVrm7mZHc35QfRcfuItKvdjHvZlE5GC 3DGHC46Tit9EP7J5OwFCfLmnA0vF3/i66QNibA4UlMK9ufu/FnY6IeiCdbvrpzHTWE7/FGOsLMMnUCbPy5i KFKzjkh8NU FUmJgNifBOGjeH gwJ0 UuFuhcZD3yX5vePvWpNOnspCymV3EmU/A5EI5NCypQnJmZ/vU9WbIZX3K9DrMY7osJdz5sNKEAsuD9mp3/hTSRmMVqSB2sR/QEQ10TudWm nJ215XjVogCAErmYCamx3Vnr1GIifQBSlNnF3wEIWR1nOFki9q 9TNmXSsDKcEvfQhtg36czYJwAjhVkWywfaMU6p sy2VezfMn2UVAQgfgVrQl6VSS95ZXuU1rAhZKmP3D4BzLtoZko jYkeNI1lWHC7iKhY dVb k0apwtPkqYDsoCZ13le/NqbUJfhd5ZJklk2PydY2EhOiAiySwmLU2VZvXu2Eq6JMdfBehn 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Q0HApz4B4ATRIuxl0NkIITeGl2lx8i0CsqLH44ylFhKrbYDLdE lWqOyiePOF8M MxyTHZFuUUKTnGxyA7MvhEusvxYXyAJjSnfpNGkXcNg0rWhsAq f/e4VOO3v37t80tunUvTvfGrt7cMGkhAcVsN144ls4q6fLUET0ZU K3Lh/wTgtnbzb2cDWCUF4Vvv6Kg6Us29bmuI4OnxNcjWxQMgc3Ewp0 5lrYeCvPEEg2FHC88/UKCDhBqi9/az/3XGHqf6jXfkykDO0zqgggdtsFHpmT4bR3Dg 0cxnkpCJrmZfCKbtgCUkmiEP8if8duujLBdAjbfAgQ65fHrDZ1 s6TMF2rIx7e9jxSepMEnJ6MyZ9XWi2LzkRIUyaP/UGEq9GZHaqgf3Ca9Y2QBBgFHQx584qJj2LRYhTamnryVBk4lna RYxOFRssUZgcsvyn4fsFHuV640jeX7Zv3Kbo 5q8OPeC5OiA0z4fp9kaKhaCnTSRI91MppptQjWg2qZJ5 HjrNcRrVG4ZTSgV47b1Dn8WOz6npJFmwA dOw7SG81vh8dHzgbbzb PKHlQ R0qYvqtrWGerBk6rALwwNBYsv6EtVM5ac4HEt35lvgrOAx9mLK JeyREzrf759xgq1X1lAJCKkgsSjlPEycrTS87G/v0uA03GZNfxpJ/B1DNUVyylu4F9uL2V49ERZk10lq LVgW5oPpD4LffsdUlVF HCEjQzJxqLrRnt8IIvXpWAX4ejkL7rbZoGfA7HfYCtbASr8r4E NzPNnkooK4qX3SMyUCf EjZbd03tXqJJJqtpSTlIpAjCZ5GOgt2ua/7H1lVrPY6PfT79MKHjtIjqqtUPqnuAYcgFcz9VrPmEJJTXGXux q7YS3 zCPlprupvxI/XdXqUaM7c6MYnPFh0ejlm5oLkadaUgXoofd7FmrgSXFaBbW7F4 PSnYpKg18Qn/cA mMVihci84oJDffwvU2/nw17L7hEtMyK/wYaCSRaZ9FOKvd3H9g7WgdXC Gg6Tmuenyiki7tgAYn/P6PFKbrg/1949cmE N89C CjasOharHzokwIlCBDl70l8MVvlQqk9Hh/o/hAIwivbks iaiAy83fon9O08RiJwfYaUqh00vF54niRy5YYLB8AGXF1K89lZ 7C97rzE6LfWVlF4Jiny9sDkFPiDb ueTYWeCbcTx4WnPeYCVpYhl3FTLYD6nXtOawSXl2kOhoHiX0CU GNb/w1gPAHpHA6uGSvBZm/bC/rSD2DHDpjUBnplgET10RUJ4r5pu2BphSmUwU8rcqd2ZkqrBuF9 8IxjNZZZZaXv/BL3rHxzDsPcp9M4E5KT213703U9ICUdcKBsvAQdA 6qf1RV n24bTv60s9ARgHLrIAAA=
https://thf.bing.com/th?id=OIF.0j%2fMnw%2fc%2bpzf3kBMfQc38A&w=307&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfc1falcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


What has brought us to this moment is the president's leadership ... what we have already seen back home in the US is lower gas prices, we've seen the free flow of oil and gas, we've seen peace.

[Winehole23]

blast from the past

background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanker_war

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ekts44pfepbmryv2h633onqu/bafkreiej4um6f3kony2i4wtmxoeybw2n4wvnxj4cr2uj2htjm afdp3qheu

[Winehole23]

sounds kinda imperial

funny we haven't tried before now, what were the last 3 months for?

https://thf.bing.com/th?id=OIF.pWGL4Qyn%2fRcAYf40godbZw&w=230&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfc1falcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


Lindsey Graham: "I spent 4.5 hours with President Trump. Here's what I think will happen. If this deal fails, he's gonna take the Strait of Hormuz over by force. We'll charge a fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation... if Iran contests control of the strait we'll obliterate them"

[Winehole23]

Iranian negotiating team walked out of the talks in protest over President Trump’s threats.-al-Manar

[Winehole23]

of the following...

prong 1: escalation, more war

prong 2: more capitulation


...the former feels more likely. the process has succumbed once again to the instability of Trump

[Winehole23]

nations responding directly to tweets now



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/bafkreia5bhdnrwcfobcgp7jekdh3sx2kjrw6s7qcgdsm5rno7 o2l354m7e

[Winehole23]

real sounding



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/bafkreiedvc3ziednegybmr2tbjauaheqxqdyaxolokjuwxtsh z3gnsvdsy

[ChumpDumper]

Wasn't this place open and free a few months ago?

2068686110163718583

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2068686110163718583

[Winehole23]

lol Trump teasing a new tax on everybody's oil

[Winehole23]

President Trump is actually jealous of Belgium for at least getting a tie against Iran.

[Blake]

lol Trump teasing a new tax on everybody's oil

$7 gallon of gas sounds terrific if it means pwning Iran!

[Winehole23]

US diplomat involved in talks said “the Iranians never left" the talks in Switzerland and negotiated until late in the night.

"We’ve talked about the Strait, Lebanon, nuclear issues, and details of implementing the MOU," the diplomat said.-Reuters

[Winehole23]

as ever, Trump has a hard time accepting the L

this makes two surrenders to Muslim barbarians so far, first to the Taliban in 2020 and now to Iran



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreidcaq2vb5aa3sjqmj354g2vqwn2mch2k7szda43s75c2 slzld2eyy

[Winehole23]

the stink of the loser is on him

[Winehole23]

it's not a light switch


An explosion tore through Qatar’s key natural gas export terminal Sunday night as workers tried to resume operations there after Iran bombed it during the war, causing a fire that hurt at least 54 people as another 18 were still missing hours later.


The blast at the Ras Laffan industrial area could cause further chaos in global energy markets, particularly as Qatar remains one of the world’s top natural gas producers.
https://apnews.com/article/qatar-explosion-ras-laffan-b8a36eea8889899b2fa499c5e247a08f

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:scyozezymlbicok26tl3jxni/bafkreifsl4xbjj46tpomcehmaspp4wak7kwa4owa7y6xpub63 czcz6qmqi

[Winehole23]

this threat comes early in the day, there's plenty of daylight for a market soothing climbdown later

Later:


U.S., Iran agree on roadmap for final deal and plan to end military operations in Lebanon, per CNBC

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3ojlrw6rdx5as5pjjes5bpxp/bafkreieo77guuyt6mni7dzxxdr3b6bnpwwm4wspkrctdhlyk2 fqhqggpjq



U.S. VICE PRESIDENT VANCE: STRAIT IS OPEN

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiewvdrra5vkgn6o6nnkhrx7s25p6gmru3spnvleb3mgj v7wma225m

[Winehole23]

https://thf.bing.com/th/id/OIF.mYlLWPZHv5Oj27oDDWE2fA?w=266&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfc1falcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


"This is not a deal the US is imposing on the region. This is a deal the region has desperately asked the United States to put in place. Obviously the headlines have been very focused on what's going on with the US and Iran, but this region has been a basket case for a very long time."

[Winehole23]

as widely predicted, a weaker version of the JPCOA remains one possible result


The US vice president, JD Vance, has said Iran (https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran) has agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors back into their country.

“This is probably what we are most excited about as Americans,” Vance told reporters in Bürgenstock, as he confirmed that he will head back to the US as technical negotiations in Switzerland (https://www.theguardian.com/world/switzerland) continue.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/22/middle-east-crisis-iran-us-peace-talks-switzerland-strait-of-hormuz-latest-news-updates

[Winehole23]

"us millennials"

https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIF.2z8xmC20gYbUIwXxKLIXbQ?cb=thfc1falcon2&rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain&o=7&rm=3


What we told the Iranians yesterday is that when you guys engage in what us millennials might call trash talk, you can't expect the president of the United States not to respond and not to correct the record.

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3ojlrw6rdx5as5pjjes5bpxp/bafkreieo77guuyt6mni7dzxxdr3b6bnpwwm4wspkrctdhlyk2 fqhqggpjq

https://media.tenor.com/xYJLQil6oQ8AAAAC/duck-season-rabbit-season.gif

[Winehole23]

VANCE: IF IRAN ASSETS ARE UNFROZEN, WILL MAKE US FARMERS RICHER

[Winehole23]

2069034682943959349

[Winehole23]

more $$$ for Iran, as a precondition of talks

looks like tribute


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreig4pdzege5i3lqiosmv3fmbjyn6nlcnojhkvnnaikqlh qxpimvr2y

[Winehole23]

40 years of Iran sanctions lifted, this concession alone makes Trump's deal weaker than the JPCOA


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreig56xijusmx4zo6uevpltuz23xmld3ol7ocnqubhapzx fs5snl6wy

[Winehole23]

The US vice-president's claim that Iran’s frozen funds would be used to buy grain are false and have not been mentioned in any agreement.-Tasnim

[Blake]

2069034682943959349

Anyone in any company would most likely be fired immediately.

[ChumpDumper]

OPSEC IS CLEAN

[Spurs Homer]

Has the GOP = Guardians of Pedophiles….officially apologized to Obama?

has fox propaganda apologized?

[Winehole23]

OPSEC IS CLEANheads would have rolled in any normal government over Signal Gate -- operational details were shared with a liberal journo on the chat, pre-attack on the houthis

but this isn't any normal government

it's the MAGA government of national salvation, so you keep a loose cannon in charge

[Winehole23]

$$$ for talks


Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran agreed to establish a communication channel on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to prevent “incidents,” and said the release of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets was finalized during the Switzerland talks.

[Winehole23]

do countries that win wars customarily pay $$$ to the losers as a precondition of surrender talks?

[Winehole23]

for all I know the answer could be yes, that wasn't rhetorical

[Winehole23]

if accurate, that's about half the daily pre-war transit


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:j2kmiyhld5btzozgzwy3lc2m/bafkreicm3z3rnhalzfpiarhyim3ti4e6kv6ycaac6kdrq3d7d 7uvt4d56a

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:j2kmiyhld5btzozgzwy3lc2m/bafkreigsxkng6bvdunlgcsptjwqbt4pnvqubai23rtwjcj73i bvqmb2uca

https://media.tenor.com/duA4pNmlaM0AAAAe/funny-copium.png

[Winehole23]

is Israel still the puppetmaster, Ball Buster?

:lol

[Winehole23]

The part about the escrow account sounds like a face-saving lie, but maybe it's aspirational

Trump lies a lot, especially about this war




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:f5dkvwxjuq4mtvqkxo2tucmk/bafkreigg6kyjrlxigzs6utttbnrtq7ldu3on4pbke2corcdjk ad4ybwyxm

[Winehole23]

Lost the war with Iran, begs Congress for more money


The Pentagon (https://apnews.com/hub/us-department-of-defense) has told senators it needs roughly $80 billion, mostly to cover the cost of the U.S. war against Iran (https://apnews.com/live/trump-administration-iran-updates-06-22-2026), adding to what is already a sizable military spending boost being sought by President Donald Trump (https://apnews.com/hub/donald-trump).

The White House Office of Management and Budget has yet to make a formal request to Congress. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (https://apnews.com/hub/pete-hegseth) has been making the rounds on Capitol Hill, including Monday evening. A top deputy defense secretary told senators about the Iran funding request last week, according to two people familiar with the situation but not authorized to discuss it publicly.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-costs-trump-senate-hegseth-4648071a31afceaa55638c69ea021fd8

[Winehole23]

is it open yet?

sounds like a selective blockade


Only a certain number of vessels per day are allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz; this amount is to vary daily according to conditions - Iran's Fars News Agency, citing a military source

[Winehole23]

as one does when you secretly control a superpower


PM Netanyahu says Israel should free itself from arms dependency on the US and build its own weapon-production system

[Winehole23]

PAKISTAN PM SHARIF: THERE IS NO MENTION OF BALLISTIC MISSILES IN THE MOU BECAUSE IT WAS NEVER ON THE TABLE

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6y3honhec2jch2ryrbuyx5a5/bafkreichnvi2in5ptmt2b4dqlvjoq6xttws7qv2uwlvxkrrq2 hav3rnoyihttps://apnews.com/article/senate-iran-war-powers-resolution-trump-7462a9a561103f531d995aac91f9fc96

[Winehole23]

Trump suggests the war powers resolution is treason



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreidgumgwdufcrax32sbpplzqcbtdmqwurelxzir2bzahb ukux7pqa4

[ChumpDumper]

If he unsurrenders he'll just have to resurrender.

[Winehole23]

loser of the war with the US/Israel somehow gets to lay security fees on the rest of the world


TOLLS NOT ON THE TABLE BUT IRAN IS EXPECTED TO PROPOSE ENVIRONMENTAL, NAVIGATION AND SECURITY FEE, DIPLOMAT SAYS

[Winehole23]

is it open yet?


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HLikXG2bkAAPTum?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

a clear plurality of Americans are not on board


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:sbdnltkjqzeb5qshxmi7wu2i/bafkreihfopxdv2ywlad3b55ojgp3wqhwv7u2wlzln7fhedbj4 xe5kvwmgy

[Winehole23]

Gulf allies to have separate talks with Iran

Finger in the air, GCC countries may decide to take the crosshairs off their productive capacity by kicking US armed forces out


Iran-GCC-Iraq talks over Hormuz are separate from US-Iran peace talks and arrangements to de-mine the strait, and are focused on future operation of Hormuz.

[Winehole23]

Trump World Order

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https://thf.bing.com/th?id=OIF.2TWt72UKu%2fNsesgAMBXvhQ&w=304&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfc1falcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3

Iran was never supposed to be a forever war. It was a precise and lethal operation. Trump took a shot, got the deal, and got out. Now we can book our next excursion. Cuba. Greenland, maybe. Or our 51st state, Canada.

[Winehole23]

is Trump now the viceroy of Iran and writing their new constitution?

https://thf.bing.com/th?id=OIF.i4%2fmqonNrkN9Mjd9kT3X2g&w=292&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfc1falcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford: "If you think about the way President Trump is treating this, it's not unlike the way MacArthur engaged with Japan post-World War 2."

[SnakeBoy]

Brent 73.11 WTI 69.95

but algae

[Blake]

Brent 73.11 WTI 69.95

but algae

That's your master that's for algae on the brain. He's obsessing and arresting people for it.

But Obama and Biden!!

[ChumpDumper]

Brent 73.11 WTI 69.95

but algaeYou could never muster the courage to say you were in favor of the war you lost.

[Winehole23]

Brent 73.11 WTI 69.95

but algaeLow wattage take

Cushing is getting close to tank bottoms, SPR is at historic lows

Energy cliff is coming -- US consumers will see it with lubricants first, probably starting next month, according to fucking AutoZone

[Winehole23]

the war with Iran is purportedly over but the second-order effects -- like physical shortage of oil, price-discovery and demand-destruction -- have yet to arrive

the US consumer is going to be paying higher prices for everything for a long time

[ChumpDumper]

snacks says his wife's truck runs on crude oil.

[Winehole23]

snacks says his wife's truck runs on crude oil.bunker fuel shortage has already hit shipping, I think

[Winehole23]

the Iran war is an epic US own-goal

[Winehole23]

Iran rattles the saber, threatens IDF in Lebanon

Y'all sure this war is over?


Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani said on Thursday that Israel must leave Lebanon or face a forced withdrawal in defeat.

“You must leave all of Lebanon,” Qaani said in remarks carried by state media. “This land is a field of steadfastness and resistance, not a playground for occupiers.”


“If you do not withdraw of your own accord today, tomorrow you will be forced to flee in humiliation and defeat,” he said.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606257330

[Winehole23]

Oman testing Iranian control of the strait

2070084235805741538

[Winehole23]

UAE bridles at Iran's purported control


New “geopolitical facts” cannot be imposed on the Arab Gulf states as a result of a “treacherous aggression against them”, the UAE’s presidential adviser Anwar Gargash says.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/25/iran-war-live-us-vows-to-defend-gulf-interests-israel-kills-2-in-lebanon

[Winehole23]

2070094697247146337

[Winehole23]

“The only authorised route for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the route announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological arm of Iran’s military, said on Thursday.

Any crossing without authorisation is “unacceptable and extremely dangerous”, they warned in a statement.

They also denounced what they said was a new route through the waterway announced by “certain authorities”, without elaborating.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/25/iran-warns-against-hormuz-crossings-without-authorisation

[Winehole23]

Cushing may hit tank bottoms in as soon as two days

What happens after that is probably the main reason Trump is trying to do a deal now


The EIA confirmed US Cushing crude oil inventories have crashed to 19 million barrels, the lowest level since 2014 and just 2 days from rock bottom where pipelines lose pressure and the strategic hub begins physical breakdown, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling another 9.1 million barrels to 331.2 million, the lowest since 1983.


As the energy cliff approaches, oil prices will likely regain and perhaps exceed their previous highs. As the resulting pain transmits through the world economy, including the United States, the Trump administration will be incentivized to come to a stabilizing agreement as quickly as possiblehttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Crisis-Is-Far-From-Over.html

[Winehole23]

a global shortage of energy can't be papered over or handwaved away


– Below 20 million barrels, the physical hub struggles to pump and transfer crude. Pipelines lose pressure, and blending operations become highly restricted.
– Refineries face immediate difficulties accessing the crude they need to produce fuel. Outbound flows and export shipments face potential curtailments and delays.
– If supplies are critically depleted, terminal and pipeline operators may invoke force majeure, legally halting supply commitments due to events outside their control.
https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/2069802588078522478

[Winehole23]

this was last week


President Trump said Wednesday that oil reserves could have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz were not opened.


“We run out of reserves at about four weeks,” Trump said in France while at the Group of Seven summit, discussing the recent memorandum of understanding with Iran. “You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-oil-reserves-would-run-out-in-4-weeks-without-iran-deal-risking-bedlam/ar-AA25Tllc

[Winehole23]

Iran threatening ships using Oman's alternate routes

Just the threat might be enough to make the ships uninsurable unless they use Iranian controlled routes


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiasl53hpra2vn5vlaojd5s463dujpf7iuadk5aj7a3yp 2w2kxr5ia

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreic6lgkhihfj2bwnysyud4oxaoki7vyc7hclqtptq3pnm sk7e6br7y

[Winehole23]

Escalation trap

Iran knows Trump knows the energy cliff is a few weeks away and that escalating right now could mean Great Depression 2.0

And also that not escalating would be humiliating for Trump

[Winehole23]

“.. A U.S. official, who spoke anonymously in order to share details of the strike, said the vessel had been hit by a drone.”

[ChumpDumper]

Escalation trap

Iran knows Trump knows the energy cliff is a few weeks away and that escalating right now could mean Great Depression 2.0

And also that not escalating would be humiliating for Trump

Yep. This is their revenge.

Black President was better.

[Winehole23]

it's not even close

[Winehole23]

our shit got rekt


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihzjfhd2r46gwy3dc544hsadt7t3bbmr5wvixlyctcbx onav55u34


When the Iranian missiles and drones came for the nerve center of America’s naval operations in the Middle East, some of them hit their mark.


The U.S. Navy base in Bahrain was repeatedly targeted between late February and June. Strikes that got through caused extensive damage, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite imagery, social-media footage and interviews with current and former servicemembers—damage that the Pentagon hasn’t publicly acknowledged. Hit hard were the command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings, along with two satellite communications terminals.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-naval-base-bahrain-e87bbca3
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iran-strikes-us-military-communication-infrastructure-in-mideast.html

[Winehole23]

what "tank bottoms" means


When inventory falls below the operational limits (~20mb) – which Cushing has now breached, at 19mb – the hub enters a stress zone rather than hitting a cliff edge. The operational minimum is not a precise failure point; it is the threshold below which there is no buffer left to absorb further stress. The immediate effects are mechanical.

Pipelines that draw from Cushing operate on pressure differentials, but inventories at this level do not cause pipelines to fail instantaneously. What deteriorates first is scheduling reliability, the ability to guarantee volume and timing. Refineries that depend on Cushing lose the flexibility to absorb disruptions or respond to demand spikes. They are forced to draw on their own tank inventory as a buffer, but those buffers are also depleted.

Blending flexibility deteriorates with it, because the crude that remains at tank bottoms is the lowest quality and pulling it through creates blending problems. Cushing’s core function is blending different grades from the Permian, Bakken, and Canadian streams to meet pipeline quality specifications and refinery feedstock requirements. When you’re scraping the bottom, blending optionality narrows significantly, so refineries either accept degraded feedstock or reduce runs.

The financial effect then follows. WTI physically settles at Cushing, and when physical delivery becomes constrained, physical tightness increasingly dominates futures pricing. You get extreme backwardation and basis blowouts as buyers scramble for physical barrels that can’t be reliably delivered. The WTI-Brent spread would likely widen – the US price and the global price decouple – and with US export capacity under pressure, nothing is left to hold Brent down.

Midwest refineries are the most exposed because they are dependent on pipelines from Cushing and have limited alternative supply access. Gulf Coast refineries theoretically have more flexibility as they can draw waterborne imports, but they are already running at record utilisation. US crude exports have run at record levels since March, with the Gulf Coast processing additional crude to produce the diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline that Middle Eastern and Asian refineries could no longer supply at normal volumes as Gulf feedstock flows through Hormuz collapsed. That additional throughput has been draining Cushing. The crude draw and the product export are the same event viewed from different ends of the supply chain.

The broader consequence is that Cushing operational stress would convert a global supply disruption into a US domestic supply disruption simultaneously.
https://nickwade.substack.com/p/two-spikes-coming

[Winehole23]

That is the first spike.


The second follows when the global restocking wave arrives. Most major economies have been drawing strategic reserves throughout this crisis – the IEA coordinated a (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)) 400 million barrel release across member nations, Japan and South Korea have drawn their modest reserves steadily, and Europe has done the same to varying degrees. China’s position is opaque – Beijing does not publish reserve levels transparently – but the working assumption is that Chinese reserves have also been drawing to keep refineries running through the Hormuz disruption, given that China normally takes roughly 20% of Gulf crude and its total imports are well down.


When those draws exhaust, every country needs to restock simultaneously. They will all be competing for the same barrels at the same moment, in a market where Hormuz throughput remains well below pre-war levels and the reconstitution sequence – demining, tanker repositioning, hull fouling, refinery feedstock switching – has barely begun. Reopening is not restoration (https://nickwade.substack.com/p/ending-the-war-on-paper), but the market continues to treat it (https://nickwade.substack.com/p/reading-the-spread-contango-is-not) as though it were.



https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eDT4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro gressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F120e333 2-acd9-4892-b15a-276bf27aec09_1770x1001.jpeg





(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eDT4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F120e333 2-acd9-4892-b15a-276bf27aec09_1770x1001.jpeg)

The shape of the financial fallout is therefore probably two distinct repricing events rather than one continuous move. The market has been reactive and consistently wrong in the dovish direction throughout this crisis. It priced the Islamabad MOU as restoration. It priced the 70-vessel day on June 24 as recovery, when it was just clearing the stranded queue backlog. It will price the first spike as the peak. Then the restocking demand will appear and the market will price that shortage separately, when it can no longer be ignored.


Two spikes. Two moments of forced repricing, each preceded by the same premature relief. Brent at $70 tells you the market thinks the crisis is over. But it isn’t. Brent at $70 instead tells you the market hasn’t looked at what comes next.

[Winehole23]

The extensive damage done to America’s sole naval base in the Middle East—along with hits to at least 20 U.S. sites across the region, including military installations and diplomatic facilities—has the U.S. re-evaluating its entire footprint in the region, according to U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.


...


The military is now considering revamping the base in Bahrain, reducing the U.S. presence in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and moving some bases or base functions west, farther from the reach of Iranian missiles and drones, according to the officials familiar with the deliberations.


...


“We defended our installations admirably, but the munitions that got through hit infrastructure required for us to conduct operations,” said Dr. Ravi Chaudhary, a former assistant secretary of the Air Force. “This is the byproduct of 10 years of Iran adapting its strike technologies for greater range and accuracy.”


The decisions the U.S. makes now—what to reconstruct, what to abandon, how far to pull back—will define its presence in the Middle East for a generation.




https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-naval-base-bahrain-e87bbca3

[Winehole23]

BERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - Lufthansa is preparing to ground up to 40 jets due to a jet fuel shortage, Spiegel reported on Friday.

[Blake]

https://apnews.com/article/senate-iran-war-powers-resolution-trump-7462a9a561103f531d995aac91f9fc96


One day after adopting a resolution aimed at removing US military forces from the conflict with Iran, the Senate walked back its rebuke of President Donald Trump’s handling of the war, rejecting an attempt to advance a similar war powers measure.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/24/politics/senate-walks-back-iran-war-powers-vote

Trump went in and bullied Cassidy and Paul and of course those spineless bootlicks fell in line.

[Winehole23]

LOL Trump begging

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreiawxxk2pqn6b6nbd35fyq4mmvyydfylhx3dbxqceyse4 xrskyvyre

[Blake]

Obviously he'll threaten again before the TACO is engaged.

[Winehole23]

The Truth Social post in question rather conspicuously contained no threat at all, just an accusation of rules broken

No threat, no taco imho

[Blake]

The Truth Social post in question rather conspicuously contained no threat at all, just an accusation of rules broken

No threat, no taco imho

I think the threat will come a little later still

[Winehole23]

no threat given, but the US apparently did wait for markets to close


Senior US official said US military has begun striking Iranian targets in response to Iranian breach of MOU and ceasefire and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.-Fox News

[Winehole23]

hopefully by Sunday night the ceasefire will be back on

[Winehole23]

has a tit for tat vibe


US military strikes targeting Iran are complete for tonight, a senior US defense said.

All of the targets (drones, radar and missiles) were along the Strait of Hormuz, US official said.-Fox News

[Blake]

hopefully by Sunday night the ceasefire will be back on

And by Monday morning Trump will declare we made another great deal

[Winehole23]

hmm....


Iran’s Revolutionary Guards: U.S. forces assaulted Sirik Island, Iran pushed back attack

[Winehole23]

Iran's ​Revolutionary Guards on Saturday #said it targeted U.S. military positions in ​the region, in ​response to a fresh ⁠U.S. strike against Iran.



The ​Guards did not ​provide details on the U.S. positions it targeted in ​the region.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-say-it-targeted-us-positions-region-response-attack-2026-06-26/

[Winehole23]

"ceasefire management" is up there with "defensive strikes"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreigco736uviwec2ef3hptx33jleug7dshcxnkvsvmni5s vmjkhvdz4

[Blake]

Look at them talking shit to Donald and getting away with it. They know he's holding a 2 -7 hand

[ChumpDumper]

We'll be COMPLETELY OBLITERATING Iran until the oil markets open Sunday evening.

Then it'll be peace in our time.

Again.

[Winehole23]

Iran and the United Arab Emirates will resume flights between the two countries starting 1 July after aviation authorities from both sides issued the necessary operating permits, according to Majid Akhavan, spokesman for Iran's Civil Aviation Organization.

[Winehole23]

moar defensive US strikes


The U.S. military said Saturday it had struck multiple targets in Iran at President Donald Trump’s (https://apnews.com/hub/donald-trump) direction, continuing a string of attacks that have shaken the war’s (https://apnews.com/hub/iran) uneasy ceasefire.


U.S. Central Command, in a post to social media, said that U.S. military aircraft targeted Iranian military “surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities” following an attack on a merchant vessel early on Saturday morning.


The ongoing strikes in the Persian Gulf show the danger of the Iran war again spinning out of control, even after Iran and the U.S. reached an interim deal to try and agree on a final accord to end the conflict. (https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-war-oil-deal-june-17-2026-19652f4611b704c0a991bf1f5bc9a4b9)

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-war-hormuz-strait-june-27-2026-dca83ec0b72f498eea7146df5311b39c

[Winehole23]

will no longer exist

not the first time Trump as threatened to wipe out Iran


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:a4e6j62mtcn65xmd7tnnc6ea/bafkreicyfrl7xu2m3dyhcscrr772i6b3qxld7m5s4tx6np5io cdhykbhme

[Blake]

Monday-

WE HAVE MADE A TERRIFIC AGREEMENT TO AGREE TO THE CEASE FIRE AGREEMENT. IRAN PINKY SWEARS NOT TO ATTACK ANY MORE AND I BELIEVE THEY ARE SINCERE THIS TIME.

[Winehole23]

anonymous source, but tends to explain Trump's surrender to Iran

there would be no way to hide or handwave a diesel crunch away

resumption of war, however, pretty much guarantees this outcome



https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!O5_2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro gressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1519121 f-a72b-4ec4-aced-4b7feaa8e3ee_1024x259.png

The U.S. does not have a month of freely deliverable diesel in a stress event. The headline EIA number shows 106.1 million barrels of total distillate fuel oil stocks and 3.631 million b/d of four-week average distillate product supplied, implying 29.2 days on paper. But that national inventory includes barrels in pipelines, refineries, terminals, regional storage, and operational positions that cannot all be allocated immediately to critical distribution hubs.

Operational estimate: applying a 45%-60% practical deliverability factor to total distillate stocks leaves roughly 48-64 million barrels of usable, allocable diesel-equivalent supply. At 3.631 million b/d, that is approximately 13.1-17.5 days, rounded to 13-18 days.https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/13-18-days-the-practical-diesel-buffer

[Winehole23]

Diesel is not a lifestyle fuel. It moves every truck on every highway, powers every locomotive, runs every tractor during planting and harvest, and drives every piece of heavy construction equipment. When a family decides gas prices are too high, they drive less. When a freight company decides diesel is too expensive or too scarce, it cannot defer the shipment — the grocery store shelves just go empty. Diesel demand is largely inelastic. The economy cannot negotiate with it the way it can with gasoline.


Let’s use the worst case: 13 days. Thirteen days means that if anything disrupts the supply chain — a refinery outage, a pipeline failure, a crude supply disruption — the effects reach the real economy within two weeks. There is no meaningful time to arrange alternatives. A tanker from a replacement crude source takes longer than 13 days to arrive. A refinery turnaround takes longer than 13 days to complete. The buffer is shorter than the lead time for almost every possible remedy.


The geography makes it worse. The 13-day figure is a national average, which means some regions have more and some have less. The Southeast is particularly exposed, being heavily dependent on the Colonial Pipeline, which is itself a single point of failure that demonstrated its criticality when it was shut down for six days in 2021. Six days is nearly half the total national buffer.


What about aviation fuel? Here is where the two problems collide mechanically, and why it creates a genuine bind rather than just a theoretical tradeoff.
Diesel and jet fuel are not different products from different parts of the refinery. They are competing claims on the same physical fraction of crude oil — the middle distillate cut that comes off the atmospheric distillation column in the same boiling range. Every refinery scheduling decision is, at its core, a daily argument about how to divide that fraction between the two products.


With a 13-day diesel buffer, the refinery cannot let diesel output fall. The economic and political consequences of a diesel shortage materialize too quickly and too severely. Diesel production becomes, in practical terms, the floor that cannot be breached.

[Winehole23]

"we had totally defeated Iran militarily, but during the ten weeks of the ceasefire Iran managed to reconstitute its military capabilities"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u5guhuusvmpsdmnalkolkf6i/bafkreickwazbtm4gjbijkkqfnt26g7gpdjjf35jdjqyzyslk6 tqubxxsji

[Winehole23]

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt military strikes and will meet Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, to resolve tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials.

[Ball Buster]

Do you still think Israel is calling the shots, Ball Buster (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49610)?

:lol

Denies the existence of the greater Israel Project… at the same time as Israel genocides Lebanon and Palestine. :lol


BREAKING:Iranian military spokesperson:Trump is just a pawn in Netanyahu's hands and is being pressured by the Mossad due to his involvement in the Epstein case.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HL4SpM-agAABTz5.jpg

[Blake]

Random Iranian military spokespersons word is as good as gold

[Winehole23]

Denies the existence of the greater Israel Project… at the same time as Israel genocides Lebanon and Palestine. :lol



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HL4SpM-agAABTz5.jpgnot sure I denied anything, Trump threatening Israel in public is a new tone

[Ball Buster]

Random Iranian military spokespersons word is as good as gold

It’s from the official spokesperson for the Iranian military. They’ve been far more truthful than the Epstein coalition, you Zionist goon. :lol

https://x.com/IRGC_IRAN_News/status/2071060090447364551

[Ball Buster]

not sure I denied anything, Trump threatening Israel in public is a new tone

you denied Israel were expanding territorially, previously. Trump threatening Israel in public is political theater.

[Winehole23]

you denied Israel were expanding territorially, previously. Trump threatening Israel in public is political theater.I'm not sure you remember correctly, Israel is expanding territorially right now, it's not a matter of opinion

[Winehole23]

It’s from the official spokesperson for the Iranian military. They’ve been far more truthful than the Epstein coalition, you Zionist goon. :lol

https://x.com/IRGC_IRAN_News/status/2071060090447364551in what way is Blake a Zionist goon?

like, where do you get that?

[Blake]

in what way is Blake a Zionist goon?

like, where do you get that?

I'm questioning it so that's the only logical conclusion

[Blake]

It’s from the official spokesperson for the Iranian military. They’ve been far more truthful than the Epstein coalition, you Zionist goon. :lol

https://x.com/IRGC_IRAN_News/status/2071060090447364551

Oh, he/ she's the official spokesperson? My bad, that changes everything. Or nothing.

I'm also not sure what the cartoon is saying. Does Israel have some secret Epstein files that they're holding over Trump as leverage?

[Winehole23]

That's the hypothesis

[Winehole23]

the Whitney Webb articles lay out a very patterned pattern

connect tha dots, if that's your thing

[Blake]

will no longer exist

not the first time Trump as threatened to wipe out Iran


Monday-

WE HAVE MADE A TERRIFIC AGREEMENT TO AGREE TO THE CEASE FIRE AGREEMENT. IRAN PINKY SWEARS NOT TO ATTACK ANY MORE AND I BELIEVE THEY ARE SINCERE THIS TIME.


Trump says Iran has requested a meeting with U.S., but Iranian officials say nothing has been scheduled

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-says-iran-has-requested-a-meeting-with-u-s-but-iranian-officials-say-nothing-has-been-scheduled

It's just pathetic

[Winehole23]

we're back to preliminary talks -- Iran demanding payment


President Donald Trump has claimed (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/29/trump-announces-meeting-with-iran-in-qatar-despite-military-skirmishes) that American negotiators will hold talks with Iran in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Tuesday after days of tit-for-tat attacks, but Tehran has denied any planned meeting with the United States.
Iran, however, said it is sending an expert team to Doha to follow up on the release of frozen Iranian assets (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/29/the-us-iran-mou-looks-at-managing-the-pain-rather-than-ending-the-war), agreed as part of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed this month to halt the four-month US-Israeli war on Iran.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/30/are-us-and-iranian-negotiators-meeting-in-doha-what-we-know-about-talks

[Winehole23]

(Ball Buster tries to dish it out but snowflakes out the second anyone replies)

[Winehole23]

OMAN PROPOSES HORMUZ SHIPPING FEE PLAN TO US AND ALLIES – NY TIMES

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif4tu2pu2ybaeejegus7c54vt7lzbemfkmfzgmertfvc 26ub2qzlq

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif4tu2pu2ybaeejegus7c54vt7lzbemfkmfzgmertfvc 26ub2qzlq

OBLITERATING THE ENEMY THROUGH MORE CONCESSIONS

[Winehole23]

Could be a feint

Pakistani army and materiel is still in the KSA, and it's not completely clear yet whether US troops are moving into or out of the region

But this suggests a resumption of war isn't likely in the near future -- DOD doesn't want war strikes by either side to be verifiable by the press

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:d2u45eobywy3yoxxmqb647r7/bafkreibchwzwswxl2mezz5lays6wf7xsguh65urgllgrgwqk5 bfnnqon5u

[Winehole23]

rearming, rebuilding, selling oil at a premium



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreifmnvpdr4xoqkpc6qq54gk2uhb4uphdqdahyylbj3xyg h2cbmexiqhttps://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/07/01/iran-us-mou-negotiation-war-oil-exports-strait-of-hormuz-.html

[Winehole23]

Iran had been unable to export a single barrel during the roughly two-month blockade that preceded the accord.

[Winehole23]

cracks in purported Iranian control


Vessels are continuing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz using the Oman-designated route despite Iran’s rejection of the lane and warnings to ships crossing outside routes approved by Tehran.


Maritime data reviewed by Al Jazeera showed 21 ships, including oil tankers, have used the Omani route since the first meeting of the joint Iranian-Omani Hormuz committee on June 29. The committee was set up to continue talks on managing navigation in the strait and related services.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/2/iran-war-live-positive-progress-as-us-tehran-wrap-up-indirect-talks

[Winehole23]

signs of normal activity

2072582985161838838

[Winehole23]

2072020585090007330

[Winehole23]

US/Saudi break?

2072149055598473447

[Winehole23]

https://www.bing.com/th/id/OGC.465024da854618de8a521cc7bd565834?r=0&o=7&pid=1.7&rm=3&rurl=https%3a%2f%2fmedia1.tenor.com%2fm%2fnIa93es0 gmgAAAAd%2frabbit-season-duck-season.gif&ehk=j5DP2CMFw1RS2vm%2f6zSHFnA636jTTCe7yo%2fhSP8pOt 4%3d


All oil tankers and commercial vessels are ordered to use Iran's designated route. Any deviation, disobedience, or U.S. interference will be met with an "immediate and decisive response."

[Winehole23]

OBLITERATING THE ENEMY THROUGH MORE CONCESSIONSsuspending sanctions enforcement and letting Iran sell oil for dollars was a big one

maybe Trump is done giving concessions for now, Iran wants to bicker about $$$ promised to Iran in the MOU

it would kind of make sense for Trump to treat the MOU as prefatory bs and drag things out with Iran past the midterm elections if possible, doing as little as possible

neither war nor diplomacy, if both can be avoided for the time being

[Winehole23]

Fearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States, according to some of the officials, went so far as to ask other countries in the region to warn Iran about the possibility Israel could target the two officialshttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/us/politics/israel-iran-negotiators-plot.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ulA.Ue-J.t4X-D7G6MURF&smid=tw-share

[Winehole23]

Iranians sought guarantees from the United States, through Pakistani and Qatari intermediaries, that Israel would not carry out any covert operations targeting the Iranian delegation, the officials said.


Pakistani fighter jets escorted the Iranian airplanes carrying a delegation of more than 70 Iranians from the border of Iran to Islamabad and back again when the session was over.


But on the way back to Tehran, an Israeli security threat emerged.


Iran’s security forces notified the plane carrying Mr. Ghalibaf back to Tehran that they had picked up intelligence that Israel planned to attack the plane and that two Israeli fighter jets had entered Iran’s airspace from its western border near Iraq, the two officials said.


Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser for Mr. Ghalibaf, who accompanied him to Islamabad, confirmed this account on his social media page. The plane made an emergency landing in the city of Mashhad, Iran’s closest airport to the Pakistani border, and the Iranian delegation traveled some eight hours by land back to Tehran, Mr. Mohammadi and the two officials said.

[Winehole23]

second-order effect of the war

2072049550395662347

[Blake]

second-order effect of the war

2072049550395662347

BUT MUH TARIFFS

[Winehole23]

remind me, did the US win the war with the Houthis last year?

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreie5keocdmmigce44mfzznxfbueqq3q5l42kiuwf2zaza vf27op6kq

[Winehole23]

A maritime cargo route between Iran’s Dayyer port and Qatar’s Al-Ruwais port has resumed operations, after a five-month suspension because of the US-Israeli war.


Abbas Abdolkhani, Iran’s commercial attache in Doha, ⁠told state media shipping resumed following coordination between the Iranian embassy ⁠in Doha and Qatari ⁠authorities.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/5/iran-war-live-huge-crowds-mourn-khamenei-trump-vows-calm-during-funeral

[Winehole23]

Maritime intelligence firm Windward says six ships have changed course from the Omani corridor while Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats patrolled the area.


Since Saturday, two of the ships diverted from the route that runs closer to Oman than Iran have sailed towards Iran while the four others have returned to the Gulf, Windward said.


The IRGC navy has been issuing radio warnings to ships using routes other than what Iran describes as its “safe route”, it added.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/5/iran-war-live-huge-crowds-mourn-khamenei-trump-vows-calm-during-funeral

[Winehole23]

The Israeli defense establishment is preparing for the renewal of fighting in the Yemeni arena and is renewing operational plans in case it is required to act against the Houthis, subject, of course, to instructions from the political leadership.-Israeli Ch14

[Winehole23]

"ceasefire management"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigod52n7wecqhmvli6pgkw2xk4v7k64ny7bqr3bvwt44 qpdtbevhm

[Winehole23]

The U.S. struck Iran and revoked oil sanctions waivers after tanker attacks in Hormuz, targeting air defenses and missile sites, with Iran threatening a "decisive" response.SOURCE: Timesofisraelwww.timesofisrael.com/us-strikes-i... (https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-strikes-iran-revokes-oil-sanctions-waiver-after-a...)

[Winehole23]

mid-week hostilities have not been usual during the so-called ceasefire


The U.S. struck Iran and revoked oil sanctions waivers after tanker attacks in Hormuz, targeting air defenses and missile sites, with Iran threatening a "decisive" response.www.timesofisrael.com/us-strikes-i... (https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-strikes-iran-revokes-oil-sanctions-waiver-after-a...)

[Winehole23]

"US military strikes are expected to last for several hours"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:h3bddmghey54fumhj4pv5434/bafkreihf7xrlmbskt7nmpjf6ftpadaxebydg27tys2lohloa6 vluhqyuvq

[Winehole23]

Trump is in Turkey


Trump approved the Iran strike plan and ordered it today while in Turkey, a U.S. official said. Trump held a meeting in Ankara with Hegseth, Rubio and Bessent who flew with him on Air Force 1, with Chairman Dan Caine who was already on the ground for the NATO summit and other officials.


The U.S. official said it is still unclear how long the strikes are going to continue. "We’ll get the assessment about the resukts of the strikes and make decisions after", the official said.-Axios

[Winehole23]

Trump wants a total embargo of Spain for not helping with his war of choice

Pissing off every European country -- still possible allies -- is a choice, too


Spain is a wasted cause. We don't want to do any trade business with Spain anymore, by the way. I'd like to cut it off. Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. Cut off all trade with Spain, please. Including visits. We don't want anything to do. They're hopeless. Bad peoplehttps://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mq4zyjkz3q2f