Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

US urges Americans to exercise caution in Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, Kuwait and Jordan, warns Saudi-Houthi fighting could ‘escalate rapidly’

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

poised for action

2101718583852282048

[Winehole23]

according to live GasBuddy data, 10% of the nation's stations are now seeing diesel over $7 per gallon... $7.01/gal, while the bottom 10% average $5.83/gal. Median price of diesel $6.39/gal. Expecting further increases to all of these metrics.

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

Mr. Trump’s decision to pull back from, or at least delay, striking Houthi targets came as commanders had approved target lists, troops were loading bombs onto U.S. warplanes selected for the missions and the wave of attacks was just about to begin, according to two people briefed on the operation.

[Winehole23]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/us/politics/trump-yemen-houthis-red-sea-iran.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

grandpa is in it way over his head

[Winehole23]

why else would administration insiders be leaking to the press?

[Winehole23]

guilty-mindedness: we fucked up, they got fucked up, now we have to help them fix it


—The Trump administration has proposed investing $5 billion in a new fund that would help Middle East countries rebuild energy infrastructure battered in the Iran (https://www.wsj.com/topics/place/iran) war and reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-attempts-to-get-around-the-hormuz-blockade-are-hitting-a-wall-c1f42cbe?mod=article_inline) to transport oil and gas, according to U.S. and Middle Eastern officials and documents seen by The Wall Street Journal.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-administration-proposes-5-billion-to-kickstart-investment-fund-to-rebuild-gulf-energy-sites-5b75cadf

[Winehole23]

national Republicans begging for export controls and whining about mean profiteers


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigninwhktydwsp636p2vf3tqv5xnj3fzjdd5dbcsip2b h43va3wmm

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[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

rats starting to disembark


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2tjnqjbnqampayvk4hez7q3h/bafkreigkbti5hz3cwg35krysiojfjm4dqthqohf2wau66wai6 rwrsd6b7y

[Winehole23]

Sen. Jon Husted became the latest battleground Republican this week to call for a quick end to the Iran war, as panic grows over how high gas prices and President Donald Trump’s agenda could imperil the party’s chances in November.


“The war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices,” the Ohio senator told POLITICO, in his furthest comments yet on the matter.

[Winehole23]

2102115999025672433

[Winehole23]

Oil companies gave dumb Donny billions in bribes, oh well

Now they can go cry on their mountain of Iran War windfall profits


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreictdfafdtslgmmognfepggiqrhenijhb6qzvnrxm7m3o wpje7wczu

[Winehole23]

China's shipbuilding industry is booming as an unexpected consequence of the U.S.-led war on Iran.


New shipbuilding orders in the first half of the year totaled 121.06 million metric tons deadweight, 2.7 times higher than the year-earlier period, according to data published by the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry.


China's global shipbuilding market share reached 82%, a 14-point increase from a year earlier.
https://archive.is/LX7bG#selection-2901.19-2909.94

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

Beijing is once again standing by Iran – not out of moral or ideological motivations, but because it can and because it is in its interest.


By purchasing 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, China has single-handedly kept the Iranian economy afloat – all while evading the US sanctions through a sophisticated network of “dark fleets” (ships used to obfuscate the Iranian origin of their cargo) and “teapot” refineries (private refineries so dubbed for their relatively modest size).


In response to Washington’s “with us or against us” ultimatum on the sanctions, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that “China will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests”. Having fought several trade wars with the US to a standstill, China has developed a high tolerance for US-inflicted economic pain – and an equally low tolerance for being pushed around.


For Beijing, foreign interference in bilateral trade relations with a third country is not acceptable. More importantly, it views Washington’s threat as toothless – and for good reason.


China is well insulated from the US’ Iran-related secondary sanctions. Chinese banks and companies that do business with Iran often do so exclusively, settling transactions in renminbi or through barter – making them effectively immune to US extraterritorial jurisdiction.


Meanwhile, the handful of Chinese companies that still settle transactions in US dollars are hidden beneath layers of shell companies that can be discarded at little to no cost. This forces Washington into an endless game of regulatory whack-a-mole, in which each entity successfully eliminated is quickly replaced by another.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/9/1/why-china-will-not-comply-with-us-sanctions-on-iran

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS5q3VuXIAAiE6v?format=jpg&name=medium

[Winehole23]

otoh, Iranian control appears to be overstated

2102871763109498988

[Winehole23]

Tanker Tracker’s (https://x.com/TankerTrackers) Samir Madani estimates ~10.3 mmb/d of crude is again crossing the Strait—using 100+ AIS-dark shuttle tankers and STS transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Iranian crude exports, meanwhile, are essentially shut down.

The oil is moving. The old system isn’t.

Iran, meanwhile, appears to be exporting essentially no meaningful crude volumes, although reduced LPG and small product flows continue.

The adaptation is working, but at extraordinary cost:

Tanker rates have risen from roughly $50,000/day before the war to more than $1 million/day, while attacks and retaliation continue.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/iran-war-pezeshkian-un-speech-china-sanctions-yemen-ansar-allah.html

[Winehole23]

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday ​that they had launched #missile and drone attacks on what they described ​as "a sensitive target" ​in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh ⁠and on Saudi ​Aramco facilities in the ​Red Sea city of Yanbu.


The statement came after Saudi Arabia ​said it had intercepted (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemen-says-government-forces-repel-houthi-push-key-taiz-aden-route-2026-09-24/) ​six ballistic missiles fired by #the ⁠Houthis towards the southern province of Taif and Yanbu area on ​the Red ​Sea.


https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthis-say-they-attacked-riyadh-aramco-facilities-yanbu-2026-09-24/

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

demand destruction



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[Winehole23]

a second US surrender to Iran strongly resembling the first one, is on deck


IRAN-U.S. NEGOTIATIONS IN NEW YORK HAVE MOVED BEYOND INITIAL DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS INTO A MORE DETAILED TECHNICAL PHASE, WITH SOURCES IN TEHRAN DESCRIBING THE ATMOSPHERE AS INCREASINGLY POSITIVE, AL JAZEERA'S BUREAU CHIEF IN TEHRAN, NOURDDINE DGHEIR, REPORTED FRIDAY.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oumckr73jxr2fcxqf6l5xnrv/bafkreiaxxpm64e4wsf2gq6zqtj242i6zd7hl7nwkqqmmgines tvn2ulwn4

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

No more foreign wars guy promises more foreign war


Trump has rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterms, officials said.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-expects-renewed-bombing-after-midterms-5982ee50

[Winehole23]

..after the midterms

[Winehole23]

5% of the regular flow



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreiharuznnizuoejkvn6rncgtfz43poximjhrim7h7sh5c kdis4thhu

[velik_m]

Houthis Assure EU They Will Not Target European Commercial Ships in Red Sea

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - The Houthi group in Yemen has formally assured the European Union that it will not attack European vessels in the Red Sea, according to the Financial Times, in a message that signals an effort by the group to portray its conflict as being directed solely against Saudi Arabia rather than international commercial shipping.

Two diplomats familiar with the matter told the Financial Times on Friday, that the Houthis made the assurances in a letter sent to the European Union’s foreign policy and security officials. The letter emphasized that the group’s recent military operations along Yemen’s southern coast were not intended to disrupt international shipping through the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The letter was delivered to European officials on Sept. 10, the same day the Houthis seized control of Yemen’s Mokha port and later took control of several other islands in the Red Sea.

The message appears aimed at demonstrating that the Houthis’ conflict is focused solely on Saudi Arabia, particularly after the group broke a 2022 ceasefire in July and launched attacks against ports and oil facilities in the country.

The Houthis had previously delivered similar assurances to Washington through Omani mediation. US President Donald Trump said the Houthis had contacted him and told him they did not want a war with the United States and would allow most ships to pass through.

Alongside the assurances, major container shipping companies, including Maersk and CMA CGM, have increased their voyages through the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandeb, with vessel traffic reaching its highest level in nearly three years.
...


https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/941845

[Winehole23]

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[velik_m]

US forces exit Iraq after two decades, leaving opening for Iran

BAGHDAD, Sept 29 (Reuters) - US forces are set to pull out from their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, a departure celebrated as a victory by Iran and its allies ​who now have deep influence in the country where 4,500 Americans died during more than two decades of war.

Iraqi security experts say the withdrawal — agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried #out by Donald Trump's administration even as it wages war against Iran — could give Tehran and its powerful allies free rein, while also allowing other US enemies to stage a comeback, including Islamic State.

"Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition's departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran's influence in Iraq," said Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specialising in studying armed Shi'ite groups aligned with Iran.

He predicted that the pro-Iranian militia groups would not only portray the departure as a victory for their movement, ​but also "seek to translate that momentum into greater influence over security and political decision-making".

Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed armed factions, described the US withdrawal as "a ​historic victory for the Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and honorable Iraqis, and a crushing defeat for the American project".

"On September 30, we will celebrate the turning of a black page ⁠in Iraq’s history and the failure of the occupation to impose its will on our country," he told Reuters. "Iraq has proven that its sovereignty cannot be secured by foreign forces, but by the resistance and the will of its people."

...

Some ​Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the US pullout also risks giving new life to Islamic State fighters, who, despite ​the defeat of their self-proclaimed ⁠caliphate nearly a decade ago, retain a sleeper cell network.

At their height, the fighters occupied a third of Iraq and killed thousands of people, including hundreds they videotaped themselves gunning down inside a former US military base.

A lack of US intelligence, logistical support and drones will give Islamic State a chance to regroup, said Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani.

"For more than two weeks, we have noticed movement by (Islamic State) sleeper cells, after it was announced in the general media that there will be an official withdrawal of ⁠the international coalition from ​Iraq by the end of September," he said. "This has boosted, in my opinion, the morale" of the fighters.
...


https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-exit-iraq-after-two-decades-leaving-opening-iran-2026-09-29/

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

As previously reported, there has been considerable internal discussion regarding WWE’s plan to hold its 2026 Crown Jewel premium live event (PLE) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Recently, the U.S. Department of State issued a level three travel advisory for Saudi Arabia, urging citizens to reconsider traveling to the country. Some regions in Saudi Arabia are under a level four advisory, which advises U.S. citizens to leave. Despite this situation, WWE has not formally communicated anything to its staff.


The report also mentioned that WWE will implement contingency plans should the situation deteriorate. The company is collaborating with privately contracted security experts in the Middle East to address safety concerns. WWE representatives indicated that it is “too soon” to consider an alternative domestic location for the PLE at this time. In terms of Crown Jewel, WWE has some backup plans for an alternate location if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate further, although specific details about these plans have not been shared.


WWE Crown Jewel 2026 is scheduled for November 7th, and, as previously reported, the company is committed to that date in partnership with ESPN.
https://ewrestling.com/article/latest-update-on-wwes-plans-for-wrestlemania-43-in-saudi-arabia/

[Winehole23]

war in Iraq took a toll of US armed forces

tax cuts and stupid wars are why we can't have nice things, tbh




The Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/vet.pdf) reports that 1,985,000 veterans who served in 2003 or later have a service-connected disability — or about 40 percent of the total. Applying that proportion to the 1.5 million servicemembers who served in Iraq, that would come to about 600,000 Iraq veterans with service-connected disabilities.



The Pentagon’s Defense and Veterans Brain Injury Center (https://health.mil/Military-Health-Topics/Centers-of-Excellence/Traumatic-Brain-Injury-Center-of-Excellence)reports having diagnosed 468,424 cases of traumatic brain injury (https://health.mil/Military-Health-Topics/Centers-of-Excellence/Traumatic-Brain-Injury-Center-of-Excellence/DOD-TBI-Worldwide-Numbers) from 2000 to 2022, including both Iraq and Afghan vets.



A 2015 report from (https://www.publichealth.va.gov/docs/epidemiology/ptsd-report-fy2015-qrt3.pdf) the VA disclosed that 422,167 veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan were seen for potential or provisional PTSD at VA facilities following their return from Iraq or Afghanistan.



A 2014 research study (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4168809/) found that rates of PTSD were higher among studies of Iraq-deployed personnel compared with personnel deployed to Afghanistan.



A 2008 study of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans by researchers at the RAND Corporation (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG720.html) found that 14 percent screened positive for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 14 percent for major depression, with 19 percent reporting a probable traumatic brain injury during deployment. (The researchers found that major depression is “highly associated with combat exposure and should be considered as being along the spectrum of post-deployment mental health consequences.”) Applying those proportions to the 1.5 million veterans of Iraq, an estimated 200,000 of them would be expected to suffer from PTSD or major depression, with 285,000 of them having experienced a probable traumatic brain injury.



A 2008 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine (http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa072972#t=articleDiscussion) found that 15 percent of soldiers reported an injury during deployment that involved loss of consciousness or altered mental status, and 17 percent of soldiers reported other injuries. (Using that ratio would suggest that 480,000 Iraq vets were injured one way or the other.) More than 40 percent of soldiers who lost consciousness met the criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder.



Altogether, the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America group estimates that as many as 1 in 3 people (http://iava.org/files/IAVA_invisible_wounds_0.pdf) deployed in those wars suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, or traumatic brain injury. That would mean as many as 500,000 of the 1.5 million deployed to Iraq.



The Department of Veterans Affairs’ list of health conditions contracted from serving in Iraq (https://www.va.gov/health-care/health-needs-conditions/health-issues-related-to-service-era/iraq-war/) includes infectious diseases (https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/infectious-diseases/index.asp) like leishmaniasis (https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/leishmaniasis/gen_info/faqs.html) (also known as the “Baghdad boil”), injuries, and hazardous exposures (https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/sand-dust-particulates/index.asp). It warns that “combat Veterans may have been exposed to a wide variety of environmental hazards during their service in Afghanistan or Iraq. These hazardous exposures may cause long-term health problems.” The VA provides no estimates of exposure or damage, however.



A 2009 Congressional Research Service report (https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA498363.pdf), presenting what it called “difficult-to-find statistics regarding U.S. military casualties” offers one indication of how the “wounded in action” category undercounts real casualties. It found that for every soldier wounded in action and medically evacuated from Iraq, more than four more were medically evacuated for other reasons.



Hearing loss is common among service-members. A 2005 Department of Veterans Affairs research paper (http://www.rehab.research.va.gov/jour/05/42/4suppl2/fausti.html) found that one third of soldiers who had recently returned from deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq were referred to audiologists for hearing evaluations due to exposure to acute acoustic blasts, and 72 percent of them were identified as having hearing loss. Richard Salvi, head of the University of Buffalo’s Center for Hearing and Deafness (https://arts-sciences.buffalo.edu/cds/research/labs/hearing-research-laboratories.html) determined in 2011 that “as many as 50 percent of combat soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan who come back have tinnitus” because of the intense noise soldiers must withstand.



A March 2010 report from the Institute of Medicine (https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/12812/returning-home-from-iraq-and-afghanistan-preliminary-assessment-of-readjustment) concluded that many wounds suffered in Iraq and Afghanistan will persist over veterans’ lifetimes, and some impacts of military service may not be felt until decades later.



The Costs of War project (https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/economic/budget/veterans) at Brown University estimates that future medical and disability costs for Iraq and Afghanistan veterans will total between $2.2 trillion and $2.5 trillion (https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_Bilmes_Long-Term%20Costs%20of%20Care%20for%20Vets_Aug%202021.p df).

https://presswatchers.org/2023/03/how-many-u-s-soldiers-were-wounded-in-iraq-no-one-knows-or-seems-to-care/

[Winehole23]

To turn dismal public opinion on the Iran War, more taxpayer-funded TV propaganda was clearly called for

2105449157310005606

[Winehole23]

Diesel continues to rip


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTd_TvKXoAA62Ff?format=png&name=900x900


The most important distinction in the report is between crude and finished products. A rebound in crude exports does not mean usable fuel is returning. Hormuz product exports excluding LPG were reported at about 1 million b/d on September 11, against about 4 million before the war, a gap of roughly 75%. Across the wider Gulf, product exports including LPG fell by nearly 60% in August. Net exports of diesel and gasoil in August were just 390,000 b/d, a little more than a quarter of their prewar level. Whether a crude cargo becomes diesel or jet fuel where it is needed depends on refinery condition, crude compatibility, product specifications and delivery routes.

[Winehole23]

reopening Hormuz doesn't solve the energy crunch

https://sonar21.com/the-gulf-restart-trap-why-reopening-hormuz-wont-end-the-energy-crisis/

[Winehole23]

Trump's quagmire


More than 2,000 US Marines and the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group are heading to the Middle East as Washington expands its military presence around Iran, an unnamed US official told reporters on Thursday.

The official said the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its accompanying warships had departed San Diego for the region, while a Marine expeditionary force left the base earlier this week.

By the end of November, the United States is expected to have three aircraft carriers and two amphibious groups deployed around Iran, according to the official.
The official said concentrating that level of US military power in the region would give Washington “many options” in dealing with Tehran.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610014004

[CosmicCowboy]

That idiot is gonna start shooting again after the midterms.

[Winehole23]

That idiot is gonna start shooting again after the midterms.Trump being a lame duck plus his worsening mental deterioration will make for interesting times

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihjwfdzffiru32g3cjpy4kty22w6ytxua5vh76lgi4sp 6yrhib5rq

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

US Deploys Additional Patriot Air Defense Systems to Saudi, Qatari Energy Sites, Axios Reports

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreicx4r7wrmtevfgedjzbdwrtvyjfglu5e6vo65kjc7nfi qbqi4qkuu

[Winehole23]

Saudi fires in Sanaa, Yemen


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[Winehole23]

The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen's Houthis said on Thursday the group had attacked a power distribution station in Medina, one of Islam's holiest sites, this week, putting one transformer out of service but without affecting the electricity network.https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/2026-10-02/live-updates-910393#update-37440

[Winehole23]

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[Winehole23]

US doesn't want to defend a second front, but Saudi Arabia is preparing to take the war to Yemen


Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters.

The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will by led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations.
...

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom's land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions [...] Islamabad hasn't made any decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity...www.reuters.com/world/asia-p... (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudis-plan-assault-houthis-break-red-sea-chokehold-2026-10-02/)

[Winehole23]

Aramco plant in Riyadh reportedly hit

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:b3sgkulmmmzz5jqsxx3dovex/bafkreiga4gais7psfiae5kwraq65c46pon5cbnmuh55yn2iyg ghmqax3qa

[Winehole23]

Saudis strike Sanaa


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qvidzz7dm76lanyikijwp4c4/bafkreigbfrkqq6dbamgqnzs776etdeub4kqic2acqv33e2gpq gb3vvdfbm

[Winehole23]

Operation Rough Rider was foreshadowing


The 52-day conflict, dubbed Operation Rough Rider, foreshadowed some of the difficulties Trump now faces in the war with Iran (https://archive.ph/o/rtHD8/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-downplays-iran-military-conflict-war-shows-no-signs-ending-midte-rcna595320): a weaker adversary able to use inexpensive drones and antiship missiles to expose the limits of U.S. air and sea power and threaten the global economy, according to seven former U.S. officials and regional experts.


There are striking parallels between the campaign against the Houthis and the U.S.- and Israel-led war with Iran.


In both conflicts, the U.S. aimed to deliver a swift blow from the air. But air power alone was not enough to achieve a rapid result. The Houthis and the Iranians suffered losses and damage but were both able to keep fighting, launching waves of drones and missiles at the world’s most powerful military.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trumps-strikes-houthis-foreshadowed-struggles-iran-war-rcna599225

[velik_m]

Yemen's government declares counter-offensive as Houthis cut vital route to besieged city

...
Alimi called on "the armed forces, security forces and all military formations to begin carrying out their assigned missions, in accordance with the approved plans, until the country is liberated from the grip of the Houthi terrorist militia".

The announcement marks the latest major escalation in the war against the Houthis following a rapid offensive by the Iran-backed group last month that saw them seize large swaths of the Red Sea coastline.

Earlier Sunday, several security sources also told AFP that the group had effectively encircled Taiz after cutting the main supply route to the government-held city.

The Houthi advance follows days of heavy fighting in and around the city of Taiz between the group and government forces.

"We were informed that the Houthis had taken control of the al-Safiya area, where they cut the main road and took control of the police station," a police source in the area told AFP.
...


https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20261004-yemen-leader-announces-counter-offensive-as-houthis-cut-off-supply-route-besieged-city-taiz

[Winehole23]

oil tanker costs approach 30% of the value of the freight

even if crude oil gets shipped out of the Persian Gulf at 100% of prewar levels, there will be a persistent shortage of refined products due to war damage on refineries

2106640737307607416

[Winehole23]

Iran collecting bribes to move GCC oil out of the gulf is speculative, but plausible

Interesting subtext of the US Navy and Air Force subsidizing Chinese oil imports


I cannot verify whether this is true or not, but I have heard directly from the Iranian side that certain countries in the GCC have struck deals with Iran to allow for their oil to get out, and that this is the main reason why more traffic is flowing rather than the Trump administration’s military efforts. “Whatever flows through the Strait, it’s because we are allowing it to flow,” I have been told.


One can dismiss the Iranian account as a desperate effort to claim control over a situation that on the surface is moving against Iranian interest.


But there may also be a logic that explains why Iran would not only allow more oil to flow, but also a narrative in the West that claims Tehran has lost the battle over the Strait.


As Brohard attests in her interview, the current situation in the Strait is unsustainable. As a U.S. serviceperson in the region told me, the cost of U.S. escorts is enormous and simply cannot be sustained. Whatever the cost the U.S. shouldered for keeping Persian Gulf oil secure before the war, it is dramatically higher now – even though the U.S. itself doesn’t buy any of that oil. China does.


Thus, not only was the U.S. subsidizing Chinese oil imports before the war, but those subsidies have increased severalfold as a result of the war.


It is also unsustainable for these GCC countries to continue to buy Iran off. They are doing so because the region expects a third round of the war to begin in the next few weeks and as a result, they need to move as much oil as possible out of the Persian Gulf before hostilities resume
https://tritaparsi.substack.com/p/yes-more-oil-is-flowing-through-the

[Winehole23]

by attacking Iran, Trump has accelerated the green energy transition




Gasoline-only cars fell below 50% of global new vehicle sales for the first time, as the Hormuz crisis and record fuel prices accelerated the shift toward EVs.
EV sales surged across major markets, with European BEV sales jumping 52% year-over-year in August and second-quarter global EV sales rising 35% from Q1.
High oil and fuel prices could permanently accelerate EV adoption, although charging infrastructure and critical-mineral supply remain major constraints.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fuel-Price-Shock-Pushes-Global-Gas-Car-Sales-Below-50-for-First-Time.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:f5dkvwxjuq4mtvqkxo2tucmk/bafkreiervipepqddzw4uvpbjqsfqhgyxwt5uvuudwffhr325v t7w3khdmy

[Winehole23]

thanks, Trump


The ongoing global energy crunch doesn't just cause pain at the gas pump: As winter approaches, millions of Americans are facing dramatic spikes in their home heating costs. The price of heating oil, which some 4.8 million households, mostly in the Northeast and Alaska, use to heat their homes, is approaching all-time highs as two wars strain global supply.

Heating oil costs are expected to jump 50% this winter, according to one estimate from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, adding nearly $900 to the average home's heating bill. The jump is catching consumers by surprise at a time of year when many households fill their tanks for winter, and it's stoking concern that the high prices will force low-income families to make tough choices between warming their homes and paying for necessities. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/a-lot-of-sticker-shock-home-heating-costs-soar-for-millions-amid-oil-crisis-160853971.html

[Winehole23]

US is retreating from a UK airbase ~3400 miles from Iran

is this what winning looks like?


All U.S. bombers deployed to RAF Fairford in England have been pulled out and returned to their home stations in the United States as potential Iranian threats raise base security concerns across Europe.Read more about the withdrawal and threats here: www.stripes.com/branches/air...e

[Winehole23]

if Pete Hegseth can't protect US strategic forces from a mid-tier power in England, why does he think they'll be any safer here?


To be clear, these are strategic assets. They are nuclear-capable heavy bombers. This isn't some special forces A-team that got exposed and had to break contact. It isn't a planned redeployment.

These are strategic U.S. military assets being run off the battlefield

[Winehole23]

troops exposed to foreseen hazards wounded and subsequently neglected


The shrapnel hit Army Lt. Col. Arturo Lincón’s body like shattered glass.

One chunk of metal lodged into the left side of his jaw. Another piece sliced through his salivary gland before bouncing off his jaw and piercing the back of his neck, severing an artery and embedding in a vertebra.

...

Lincón’s wounds included a damaged left vertebral artery, which supplies blood to the brain, and put him at risk for a stroke. That was not considered by the Army to be serious enough to be admitted to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, a major U.S. military facility, even though Lincón said a nurse there marveled that he was alive.

Instead he was sent to the nearby Army barracks and told to schedule outpatient appointments.

“I was just kind of on my own, at least it felt like that,” said Lincón, a veteran of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.https://www.huffpost.com/entry/iran-us-port-shuaiba-attack-wounded_n_6ac38107e4b0f45fd4cd663a

[Winehole23]

Another soldier who had shrapnel removed from his head, Maj. Stephen Ramsbottom, said he waited over four months to receive his MRI results.

“I’ve had to build my own case for everything,” Ramsbottom told the AP. “It’s very frustrating.”

[Winehole23]

Chief Warrant Officer 4 Rodney Bearman, who had shrapnel embedded from his face to his legs, and some of the other soldiers who were briefly seen at Kuwaiti medical facilities were sent to the homes of U.S. government employees. Iran had unleashed missiles and drones that made it risky for evacuation flights.

Some 10 days after the attack, the soldiers were loaded onto a cargo plane. They sat on the floor with straps, including Bearman, who could barely eat or lie down.

When they arrived in Germany, Bearman said they learned they were not documented as wounded in combat and would not be hospitalized at Landstuhl. Instead, they were sent to the barracks, as Lincón had been, and told to get outpatient care. Bearman said they were documented that way due to a coding error.

[Winehole23]

Lincón says he went days without pain medication. He carried a CD with a copy of medical records from Kuwait that he showed the ER doctor at Landstuhl who expressed concern that he had not been evaluated yet by a trauma team.

[Winehole23]

months went by without diagnosis


Medical records shared with the AP by Ramsbottom and another officer show they were not diagnosed with TBIs until Fort Hood. The officer, who was blown off his chair, said he did not get care for weeks after that diagnosis and had to identify the specialists he needed, like a neuro-ophthalmologist to diagnose the blurred vision from his TBI rather than counting on the military’s medical system.

Maj. Billy Key says he did not get specialized care until mid-April when he was sent to a U.S. soldier recovery unit to be treated for his head injury, hearing loss and the smoke inhalation that damaged his lungs.

[Winehole23]

Lincón, who was born in Texas to Mexican parents, was issued only a temporary one-year passport after his passport was blown up in the attack and he was asked for additional documentation to prove his U.S. citizenship. After the AP reached out to the State Department to inquire about his case, the 1995 West Point graduate said he received a call saying the request for more information was a mistake and he would be receiving a passport that would be good for 10 years.

“I’m American enough to have fought in three different wars,” Lincón said.

He’s also concerned his medical records are incomplete. His claim for Traumatic Injury benefits under the Servicemembers’ Group Life Insurance was denied due to not meeting the threshold for hearing loss, though it never addressed his other issues, he said. The program gives cash to service members who suffer severe injuries.

[Winehole23]

new front in Iraq?

2107144760624312330

[Winehole23]

Turkiye and Pakistan "activate deterrence measures"


Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have agreed to activate "deterrence measures" under a mutual defence pact and rapidly deploy forces to the Gulf kingdom to counter attacks by Yemen's Houthis.


The decision was announced on Monday after the three countries' defence and foreign ministers held an emergency meeting in Riyadh. It marked the first time the alliance – known as the Mecca Alliance for Defence – has been invoked since it was signed on August 7.


The agreement declares that an attack on any of the three nations will be treated as an attack on all, mirroring a central provision of NATO's founding treaty.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/turkiye-pakistan-agree-saudi-arabia-183204189.html

[Winehole23]

US policy of retaliation for Iranian oil tanker strikes abandoned for some reason


Iran has stepped up its attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a fragile rebound of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf.


Nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, have come under attack over the past month while sailing through Hormuz, the Persian Gulf or off the coast of Oman, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories/2026), a group of U.S.-allied militaries that provide security updates to merchant vessels.

ttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/crude-oil-tanker-strait-hormuz-iran-attack.html

[Winehole23]

At least 11 tankers have been attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz since last Monday, threatening a recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports as fighting spreads across the region.


Four of the attacks occurred in the past two days, underscoring the risks facing ships despite protection from U.S. forces, The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/05/business/hormuz-saudi-iran-houthis.html) reported Monday.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-tankers-oil/2026/10/06/id/1271816/

[Winehole23]

Fox News with the tuff questions

lol

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FOX NEWS: You said in the beginning of the war that 'Iran presents an imminent threat and must not have a nuclear weapon,' and then more recently you said 'the Iran war needs to end to bring costs down.' So which is it?

MIKE ROGERS: Well, all of those are true

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreifdpmfzrwk2wdcgyraxqk44hdhgblqkql5renpsuwij3 vi4uijwzq

https://i.imgflip.com/b2xyns.jpg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u23uzbgypuxy5vhzfahm642b/bafkreic4cnyd5skbct33sjgwl4nyaryxncslk2d4fpn5wl2wm a4j2stubq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:f5dkvwxjuq4mtvqkxo2tucmk/bafkreifdrseqpqfhkmyhhee7wqo4qf23iegdlnqsbzykwqyf5 w7wesvoda

[Winehole23]

US aircraft losses:

81 aircraft destroyed, lost or damaged, incl. 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones; Crewed jets: 12 F-15E Strike Eagles, 7 KC-135 tankers, 2 A-10s, 1 F-35A, 1 E-3 Sentryhttps://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12692/IN12692.5.pdf

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:36n7wd7gg4tapamnog4zyyc6/bafkreicjk6nkn2ela42wicc2ow5t7suzbq7voeob7rjuge67m rt7jr5ts4

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:36n7wd7gg4tapamnog4zyyc6/bafkreicarimcrudpdd7ux44mixo2vbtgqx5p7agzt5h6vudxg hugcgxk6m

[Winehole23]

wag the dog


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2kfemzpsbyfpzkp4op6dopoj/bafkreihzoe6nyfv2h2k4s44ci36jbxsby5cut3qkwbknpnyxs quz7z3tqi

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2jwxoziacifmtqa5felhqms6/bafkreifazk445wnlw4ub37zvzo6ynmfzhoiwykkj2ktbdqusx 2gowrjaby


The cost of hiring one very large crude carrier to move US oil to Asia topped $77 million, new data showed Wednesday, surging more than 700% from its 2025 average. www.semafor.com/article/10/0... (https://www.semafor.com/article/10/07/2026/tanker-hiring-costs-surge-amid-shipping-threats)

[Winehole23]

"attacks on tankers in Hormuz hit highest of any week since start of Iran war"



In the week of September 28-October 5, there ​had been at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from three maritime security ​sources who analysed incidents based on information received from the area.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/attacks-tankers-hormuz-hit-highest-any-week-since-start-iran-war-sources-say-2026-10-07/

[Winehole23]

U.S. military airborne security patrols have been active in the southern reaches of the Strait of Hormuz, defending a narrow maritime corridor with some success, but American forces have only a limited presence to the west of the waterway – rendering tankers transiting off Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar comparatively vulnerable. The U.S. Navy no longer maintains an operationally significant presence in Manama, Bahrain, former home of U.S. Fifth Fleet, and there are no U.S. surface combatants operating west of Hormuz.https://maritime-executive.com/article/tanker-hit-multiple-times-in-arabian-gulf-hundreds-of-miles-from-hormuz

[Winehole23]

2107925763764916730

[Winehole23]

passenger plane hit by a missile at Riyadh airport

no one reportedly aboard


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ryrqylbqv7izbppbd3g5pxf4/bafkreibzv5l6cxjeq4gcskvfe4i7grvilnmrojwyndjlobgag tfd5rccsuhttps://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2255684/saudi-arabia-horror-houthis-blow

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u23uzbgypuxy5vhzfahm642b/bafkreic4cnyd5skbct33sjgwl4nyaryxncslk2d4fpn5wl2wm a4j2stubq


The Pentagon, on Trump’s orders, has developed plans to strike Iran’s drone and missile arsenal, energy facilities, and other military sites. The options center on a short, intense campaign of about three days -- NYT

[Winehole23]

A senior Pakistani military official confirmed to The New York Times that Pakistani fighter jets are participating in airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieru6cgsfvxqjfsamkotbc6uzc4mruwcfaipuszhelak twzia3soa

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:trubycit2yysin7agokzj6li/bafkreiat4zheb54u4ly2vhuk3u2n5lxd6izsax6a3fmds5ecu jeh5yu6we

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dmopowukpuxjkjvvnsi4srit/bafkreicb37tek6scarslz5j5tis42p3ema7p322gkfeuov4u3 ixeu4fhye

[Winehole23]

sweaty, deal-incapable loser makes deal with evil despot in doomed attempt to bring down US gas prices

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vpfavbhwv4okwh6ydgp5uxf6/bafkreidhknepis2trwa26fgtjoh7eaheutsujvwhybli5rgf7 3ktsebc4a

[Winehole23]

If we actually receive 1,800,000 tons of diesel from Russia, that's equivalent to:

* 3.3 days of US consumption, or

* 10 days of US *exports*.

[Winehole23]

no news of 20 for 1 US retaliation

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot-2026-10-09-at-11.00.35%E2%80%AFPM-300x254.png

[Winehole23]

transits at the lowest rate in 2 months


Another vessel, Dhalkut, reported shooting nearby on Thursday while it was off the coast of Fujairah, the maritime security company Vanguard said. Fujairah has become a popular mooring for more risk-averse tankers waiting to pick up cargoes that have been shuttled out of the Gulf.


John Walker, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, a security specialist, said that Iran was probably pushing attacks further into the Gulf to “remind Gulf states that the economic and security cost of supporting the US is not confined to Hormuz” as well as to diluting US air cover. “While US jets are busy in Hormuz, it’s easier to conduct successful attacks elsewhere,” he said.


Commodities platform Kpler said on Friday that flows had recovered to prewar levels in September but that “intensified attacks on tankers” had driven exports “sharply lower” this week. The seven-day average up to October 7 was 9.9mn barrels per day, 42 per cent lower than the prewar baseline and down from around 15.5mn barrels per day in September, Kpler said.
https://www.ft.com/content/83b817d5-df71-41a6-bef5-3db55a3a89cf?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

degraded military capabilities status report, via Bloomberg


Iran has managed to preserve its missile and drone factories despite months of US and Israeli bombing, officials familiar with the matter said, allowing it to replenish its arsenals while President Donald Trump holds off on strikes ahead of the midterm elections.


Tehran still has the capacity to manufacture weapons to rebuild its arsenal, according to the Western officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private assessments. One official said Iran remains well-stocked with ballistic missiles and some anti-ship weapons, and can quickly add more.

…
“There is probably less high-end stuff available, but they’ve been stockpiling cruise missiles for themselves and the Houthis for years, and hiding them,” said William Alberque, a Europe-based senior fellow at the Pacific Forum. “I’d guess with a fair bit of confidence that we haven’t seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of anti-ship attacks.”

…
“The actual anti-ship missile stockpiles likely remain large, both because they are comparatively easy to make, and Iran has in-housed much of the production of older Chinese ASCMs, and Iran’s southern mountains provide natural shelters against air attack,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
https://archive.ph/7lZKQ#selection-1919.93-1919.180

[Winehole23]

sure, we can still get crude oil out of the gulf, but Abqaiq stabilizes about 5% of global crude for transport

2108204524758581657

[Winehole23]

Israel declines to carry water for Trump and Republicans


U.S. officials reportedly pressed Israel over the past two weeks to launch a unilateral strike on Iran, hoping Israel would shoulder the political risks ahead of November's U.S. midterms.

IDF chief Eyal Zamir warned renewed fighting could delay Israel's Oct. 27 election, and Washington has reportedly since dropped the request. The push was tied to concerns about Iran's rapidly recovering missile and drone production.-Maariv

[Winehole23]

Riyadh hit again


An international airport in the Saudi capital has been attacked again, reports say, just days after Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed two successful attacks on the hub.


King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh was evacuated after a loud blast was heard on Saturday, two international news agencies have reported.
More than a dozen ambulances were seen rushing to the airport, according to Reuters, citing an eyewitness. Saudi authorities have not commented, while the airport told passengers to check with their airline before travelling there.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw33x4y8k82no

[Winehole23]

Trump has wrecked US credibility as a Persian Gulf protector

[Winehole23]

hiring a tanker from the US to China now costs as much as a new tanker did one year ago


For a sign of just how extraordinary oil shipping costs (https://gcaptain.com/tag/tanker-rates/) have become, consider this: It’s now more expensive to hire a tanker from the US to China than to launch a rocket into space.

That journey costs about $80 million, compared with $74 million for a standard SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, shipbroker Gibson said this week. The same amount of money could have bought a near-identical tanker outright earlier this year.
https://gcaptain.com/global-oil-tanker-shortage-is-getting-worse-by-the-day/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:w4q67cxuzssbruy5laebvzgb/bafkreidukki55u5mms3cxdx75v3jgnssqr3xycdbzvhhmtt4q iyxur4xxa

[Winehole23]

Trump making excuses for China and Russia, for some reason

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreigyibtuxqzafx4zw73vnyt3kfxmpf2jfjyfebj6xhnpn 3ien6cbsy

[velik_m]

Iran says ‘deeply concerned’ over escalation between Houthis, Saudi Arabia

...
“We are deeply concerned about the developments taking place in the Arabian Peninsula,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tells a weekly press conference, adding that Tehran is ready “to use our good offices to help facilitate dialogue between the parties.”
...



https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-deeply-concerned-over-escalation-between-houthis-saudi-arabia/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicrkt3xsjelqn5gqzel3wkjcjtvghihcbavrdebqcuyv 7ge75xtla

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihga6ynhrur2twq4iau6j6bqlorhw7qhb4iu6n4ccq3w gnoyis6ne

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibn3mx5r746qgcfjurntnb5ggopmm4yaayhra7znfesv mpss6cai4

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreig7tdt46g7zyy4mespddltjufl3copriiiwdt3lsov7f ijm4udj5m

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicrkt3xsjelqn5gqzel3wkjcjtvghihcbavrdebqcuyv 7ge75xtla

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihga6ynhrur2twq4iau6j6bqlorhw7qhb4iu6n4ccq3w gnoyis6ne

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibn3mx5r746qgcfjurntnb5ggopmm4yaayhra7znfesv mpss6cai4

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreig7tdt46g7zyy4mespddltjufl3copriiiwdt3lsov7f ijm4udj5m

Awesome that we're using military money to help ship oil now. Just keeps getting better.

[Winehole23]

Awesome that we're using military money to help ship oil now. Just keeps getting better.yeah, getting more crude oil out isn't that useful when the bottleneck is refined products, but we're still being on crude compared to prewar -- eventually crude oil stocks will be depleted too if the war doesn't end. it'll take at least a couple of years for Persian Gulf refiners to restore lost capacity and the rest of the world excluding China doesn't have much spare refining capacity. We can get plenty of heavy sour from Venezuela, but again, Gulf of Mexico refining capacity doesn't have much slack either

prices and supply stabilizing next year depends on hormuz opening back up fully -- a big if

[Winehole23]

assuming no further damage to Persian Gulf refining, the diesel crunch won't ease for about a year and adding Russian diesel to global supply is a rounding error that will not bring down prices, according to Larry Johnson


Diesel is where this hits hardest. Diesel moves the trucks, tractors, trains and ships that carry everything else, and Europe is one of the world’s dominant diesel importers. The International Energy Agency’s October report is blunt. Middle Eastern fuel exports are below half of pre-war levels, and diesel markets “will remain tight well into 2027.” The IEA does not expect lost diesel stocks to be replenished before the second half of 2027. Diesel benchmarks topped $200 a barrel in September and remain nearly double the price of crude, which is itself around $108 for Brent, up more than 75 percent from a year ago. Ukrainian drones keep hitting Russian refineries and export terminals, so Europe’s other traditional source of middle distillates is also impaired.


So when people ask me when diesel supply returns to normal, my answer is not soon. The IEA’s timeline, which does not account for sustained damage to Saudi facilities, points to the second half of 2027 at the earliest. A real recovery is at least a year away, and probably longer.
Don’t expect the Trump-Putin diesel deal to change that. As I have argued before, the Russian barrels are a rounding error. Moscow has cleared 500,000 tons for export, roughly 3.7 million barrels, with no shipping timeline. Even if every tranche Trump announced is delivered, about 4.8 million tons in total, that comes to roughly 36 million barrels spread over months. The first 300,000 tons equals less than one day of American transport diesel demand, and the full program equals less than four. Measured against the world’s lost Middle Eastern distillate exports, it is negligible. It also depends on Russian refineries that Ukrainian drones continue to hit, and on sanctioned tankers to carry it. The deal may make for a good headline. It will not move the supply curve, and so it will not bring down the price of diesel.https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/europes-diesel-winter-is-coming-and

[Blake]

This war will at the least be ongoing until Trump is no longer president. Can't even imagine what diesel will sell for in a year or two

[Winehole23]

Trump may end it like he ended Afghanistan: surrender to the enemy effective the year after he leaves office

[Blake]

Trump may end it like he ended Afghanistan: surrender to the enemy effective the year after he leaves office

And then blame the Dems for surrendering and keeping us in this mess

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidesdjbxjkz346qfs33vzrkn6upx24eldaz545uqqhgt 4o62kdnmy

[Winehole23]

the French are reportedly already in Yanbu


*UK TO FLY MISSIONS TO DEFEND SAUDI ARABIA FROM HOUTHI ATTACKS

[Winehole23]

US embassy staff and families ordered to leave Saudi Arabia, with families of embassy staff in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain also ordered to leave, diplomatic source tells AFP

[Winehole23]

State Dept says AFP got it wrong, notice is for Saudi Arabia only

[Winehole23]

Russia pledged to maintain its political and economic cooperation with Iran during Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Tehran on Monday, as US President Donald Trump welcomed what he described as limited Russian and Chinese support for Tehran.

Trump said Moscow and Beijing had the capacity to provide Tehran with far greater assistance but had so far refrained from doing so.

“Russia could have done a lot more to help Iran. Russia's done very little for Iran,” Trump told reporters on Monday. He said China could also have provided much more assistance and described the limited help from both countries as “a very positive thing.”

Trump's remarks came as Lavrov held talks with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, where Moscow reaffirmed its commitment to its strategic partnership with Iran while calling for a diplomatic solution to the regional conflict.

At a joint press conference with Araghchi, Lavrov said Russia had no intention of abandoning economic and investment agreements with Iran despite the war.
He said Russian specialists were gradually returning to work at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant and pointed to continued cooperation on energy and transport projects, including the planned Rasht-Astara railway.

Lavrov also said Moscow had provided humanitarian assistance during the war and would continue supplying food to Iran.


https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610197573

[Winehole23]

behind in the polls

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5u54z2qgkq43dh2nzwzdbbhb/bafkreihnxnrsbivlfrtnyghqkhh4fod2t6ijmz7noesubqfwy to2nr23hu

[Winehole23]

Per the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/eb4d1101-45ed-4d03-9beb-42f7c87a58ea), Netanyahu was preparing to launch a major new military offensive against the Islamic Republic earlier this month, but US President Trump intervened to prevent the operation from going ahead.

Citing three people familiar with the plans, the newspaper reported on Wednesday that the Israeli prime minister had instructed the military to prepare a sustained bombing campaign for the weekend of October 10.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2siuzncztvvgr47k7e7esvim/bafkreigqor6ngvbyf2bcfuhnwfmitkjs74x5wmtabsbqzjznd vpjqfz3ta

[Blake]

Store prices can only hold out for so long before they jump up in correlation.

[Winehole23]

Crude oil prices were on course to book a sharp weekly gain, with Brent crude (https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/) on track for gains of about $6 per barrel and WTI (https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/) registering a much more modest tick higher, from around $99 per barrel on Monday to over $100 earlier today.


At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $114.00 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $100.40 per barrel, as hostilities in the Middle East remain front-page news for oil traders. The focus, however, seems to be on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including Aramco facilities.


The latest news from that front was Aramco’s order for personnel evacuation from its headquarters in Dhahran, which is in the Persian Gulf, suggesting the Yemeni Houthis have some longer-distance capabilities than what they used previously, when they focused on attacks in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports.



Meanwhile, adding fuel to the oil price rally, Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported the shutdown of an oil pipeline that feeds oil from two fields to the Zawya export terminal. The shutdown prompted cuts in production at the two fields.
“Markets are increasingly worried about renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf, a scenario that could threaten oil flows that have so far remained remarkably resilient,” ING’s commodity strategy team wrote in a note (https://think.ing.com/articles/the-commodities-feed-brent-risk-premium-builds-with-fears-of-re-escalation/) today. “Reports suggest President Trump is considering fresh strikes on Iran, while the US is reinforcing its military presence in the region with the deployment of a second aircraft carrier,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey also wrote.


The analysts added that the threat of renewed escalation between the United States and Iran undermined hopes of the opposite following the U.S. midterm elections next month. As a result, the bank’s analysts revised their Brent crude price outlook for the fourth quarter, saying the previously estimated $80 average per barrel looked “unattainable”.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Hits-114-as-Houthi-Attacks-Threaten-Saudi-Energy-Infrastructure.html

[Winehole23]

"strait is open, Iran is defeated"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidquh6f3c4nxbqt7ayyyliti5hvbile5lkxalkidudfu 5bxgoqzz4

[Winehole23]

Q: Your ambassador to Turkey just said that 'absolutely, there could a strike on Iran this weekend.' Have you gone back on holding off until after the midterms?

TRUMP: If that's the case, I don't know anything about it

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/2beb4078-0046-47ac-b5c2-65519dc01115_7999x4320-1024x553.webp

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/b1845818-81fd-48e6-936f-f5f7ed1183c3_7999x3180-1024x407.webp

[Winehole23]

US not at the table with our regional allies


Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Turkiye’s intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin are meeting with Iran’s top military official, Major-General Mohsen Rezaei.


Pakistani Senator Sehar Kamran posted on X that the meeting “underscores a shared recognition that lasting stability must be shaped by the region’s own powers through dialogue, not external imposition”.


She said constructive engagement by Iran could help address threats to Saudi Arabia’s security and reduce risks to vital energy chokepoints – from Bab al-Mandeb to the Strait of Hormuz – as oil prices continue to rise.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/26/iran-war-live-trump-rules-out-strikes-today-israeli-forces-raid-hebron

[Winehole23]

Liar and a dunce

https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIF.5oqlVorwGNXUzvzz7Dm8SQ?w=212&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


"We didn't start the war with Iran. Iran started the war with us."

[Winehole23]

2114729537950855369

[Winehole23]

do you offer your enemy ransom money when you're winning?

[Winehole23]

COP Keating (Gen. Randy George), Mosul and Diyala (Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia), and the 82nd Airborne / JSOC (Gen. Chris Donahue) were the literal tip of the American combat spear, not lazy "woke" flag rank.

So why is Pete Hegseth's influencer ecosystem (Rob Maness, Kurt Schlichter, Sean Parnell, and E-Ring accounts) suddenly flooding the zone with narratives about a "dishonest officer corps", "leakers", and "checking boxes on readiness slides"?

Because it is a coordinated 4-part political inoculation campaign. Here is why they are pushing that script right now:

1. SHIFTING BLAME FOR THE $29B MUNITIONS BURN TO THE GENERALS

Washington Post and CENTCOM figures confirmed Iran Round 1 cost $47.0B total and burned $29.0B in munitions (with 81+ U.S. aircraft lost or damaged and Patriot stocks depleted ~66% down to 759-827 rounds).
• That depletion happened because Hegseth and Pentagon CTO Emil Michael cut CENTCOM targeting oversight by 93.75% (from 16 to 1) and pushed 1,000+ AI targets/day while pricing scarce multi-year interceptors as free goods.
• If the public and the President realize Hegseth, Michael, and Colby broke the U.S. missile shield right before Iran Round 2, Hegseth gets fired. Pushing the "officers lie on readiness slides" narrative sets up the uniformed military as the fall guys.

2. REBRANDING MILITARY PUSHBACK AS "SUBVERSION" OR "LEAKING"Hegseth has built his brand on a populist grievance against commissioned flag officers, painting Joint Staff planners as risk-averse bureaucrats.

• Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia (Joint Staff J-5) shattered that cartoon: West Point '94 infantry combat commander, Purple Heart, two Valor devices, Presidential Unit Citation in Diyala, cleared IEDs in Helmand, and led the brigade that broke ISIS in Mosul.
• Because Sylvia is the second J-5 war planner Hegseth has purged (alongside firing Joint Staff Director LTG Douglas Sims and ousting Army Chief Gen. Randy George, which caused Trump's own Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to resign), Senate Republicans are asking why every 3-star planner who looks at the Iran war plan gets fired
.• So the E-Ring runs a two-track smear: Parnell claims an "Air Force OSI leak probe" on an Army 3-star (hours after the Joint Staff thanked Sylvia for 32 years of service), while influencers prime the base to believe senior officers are inherently dishonest.

3. INOCULATING AGAINST LTG SYLVIA'S SENATE TESTIMONY

Hegseth, Colby, and Dan Scavino know what happens next when you fire the Joint Staff J-5 days before the midterms and right before Iran Round 2:
• Lt. Gen. Sylvia is going to be called to testify under oath before Senate Armed Services and Senate Intelligence
.• Under 10 U.S.C. 153, the J-5 is the exact officer who had to tell Colby and Hegseth that after burning $29B in munitions in Round 1, subtracting the 500-round Indo-Pacific/NATO reserve floor leaves ONLY 3 TO 5 JORDAN-SCALE PATRIOT RAIDS (3.70 to 5.45 packets) for Iran Round 2.
• Smearing Sylvia now as a "leaker" is a preemptive attempt to poison the well with GOP voters before he sits down at a Senate witness table.

4. COVERING FOR N=1 VENDOR CAPTURE

Look at what actually leaked over the last 7 days that triggered Hegseth's polygraph dragnet:

• It wasn't battle plans given to the enemy. It was internal Pentagon alarm over (a) the $47B/$29B Iran munitions burn and Russian targeting data going to Tehran, and (b) Musk's Oct 13-24 Starshield throttle and the frozen European-paid Patriots for Ukraine.
• When an incompetent leadership team outsources sovereign C2 to a single conflicted vendor (QRR = 0.00) and burns the physical missile shield down to 3-5 raids, their only survival move is to make "leakers" and "the officer corps" the story instead of the math.This is a coordinated operation destroying the exact experienced combat warriors we need at the Pentagon, all to hide the incompetence, corruption, and failures inside Hegseth's circle at the direct expense of our military.https://x.com/LibertyLynx/status/2115873909757386991

[Winehole23]

“If Iran is bringing limpet mines back out of the wardrobe I would be worried for ships across the Gulf,” said Martin Kelly, chief executive of the maritime security consultancy Orbital Risk Intelligence, who is advising three ships due to pass through the strait this weekend.

Kelly said that Iran was “doing everything they can to stop ships getting through”, including issuing false information campaigns about ships being hit by mines, increasing the geographical area in which its forces attack ships and increasing the tempo of strikes.

The first two weeks of October were the heaviest period of strikes against shipping since the war began.“Shipowners will begin to say, ‘shit, there are now limpet mines, we’re not going through’,” he said, adding that ships in local anchorages could be particularly at risk.

Iran has also used cruise missiles against shipping in recent weeks, as well as using drones to target the vessels’ funnels, because that increases the damage by focusing the blast on a part of the ship connected to the engine room, maritime security experts said.

Because most ships are sailing through Omani territorial waters, they are not permitted to have armed guards on board but typically sail with response officers from security consultancies on the bridge who advise crews as they transit the strait.Dubai’s PRY Shipping, the owner of Louise 1, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Another tanker and a dhow in the strait suffered fires on Thursday after being hit by missiles.https://www.ft.com/content/66ba3e98-26f5-46f1-9af3-5854364b4e9f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

Kriegsminister Pete lied his ass off


After the war began on Feb. 28, Iranian missiles and drones pounded bases across the Persian Gulf. In the first two weeks, at least 119 buildings at 13 installations, mostly in nearby Kuwait, showed damage—more than in any other stretch of the war.


Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, took heavy fire (https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-naval-base-bahrain-e87bbca3?mod=article_inline) in those two weeks. Central Command evacuated most personnel from the base.


On March 13, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Iran’s missile program all but finished. “Iran’s entire ballistic missile production capacity, every company that builds every component of those missiles, has been functionally defeated, destroyed,” he said at a Pentagon press briefing.


But Iran kept striking. Over the rest of the month, damage appeared at six more installations, the Journal’s analysis found.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-us-bases-damage-88db3224?st=LZKnbx

[Winehole23]

When the ceasefire collapsed (https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-says-ceasefire-with-iran-is-over-6cf9675e?mod=article_inline) on July 7, Iran focused its fire west, to bases hundreds of miles farther from its borders. Through the war’s six-month mark, the Journal found damage from at least 11 separate attacks, five of them in Jordan. The Gulf installations neighboring Iran that had borne the brunt of earlier strikes now only saw sporadic damage.


Within days of the deadly July 17 strike at Muwaffaq Salti, the Journal found damage at three other installations to buildings that current and former U.S. servicemembers said resembled base housing. That same week, U.S. officials privately expressed worry about Iran targeting troops where they sleep.



https://images.wsj.net/im-78226439?width=700&height=507At Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, buildings resembling housing units damaged in July. Airbus DS/AP
Iran was also hitting smaller buildings, one sign of the precision that has increasingly alarmed U.S. officials. Structures damaged after the ceasefire collapsed were less than half of the size of the ones hit earlier, the Journal found. Base housing—often converted shipping containers or even tents—tends to be small, some of the current and former servicemembers said.


Iran’s own public statements reflected this shift. From July 7 to Aug. 28, Iran claimed more than 40 strikes on U.S. installations, according to a Journal analysis of four Iranian state-affiliated media outlets. More than three-quarters of those claims described specific types of buildings at named installations, compared with less than half earlier in the war—and claims of strikes targeting housing doubled.


“There’s definitely been an effort by the Iranians to inflict casualties on U.S. forces,” said Brian Carter, an Iran-focused defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank.

[Winehole23]

more braindead US aggression on deck


The week of October 19, Trump was presented with a menu of options for a renewed war on Iran. The plans were not drawn up by the Joint Staff’s J5, the Pentagon’s chief planning directorate, but by the J5 at Central Command, the headquarters that will actually fight the war. Trump, my source says, chose the option of seizing one or more islands. Murphy’s “insane” comment, after his briefing, fits that choice. Murphy has not publicly named the targets. Analysts discussing his briefing have mentioned Kharg, Iran’s main oil export terminal, and Qeshm, the large island that sits across the Strait of Hormuz.


And then, on October 29, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff’s J5. The Pentagon says he was removed for leaking classified information and failing polygraph tests. Two other Pentagon sources told CBS those accusations are false. What I am told, and what other analysts have heard from their own sources, is that Sylvia opposed the island plan. If that is right, the administration just fired the general whose job was to tell it which plans were bad, a week before it intends to carry out one of them. That is not leadership. That is shooting the smoke detector.
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/trump-can-start-it-but-he-cant-finish

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4zt6rrg5xqhzplwn26bhz65z/bafkreichgtykfucqxuc34jevs4vf2pjkxnv3plv5qkvcnz55p km7ijnfdi

[Winehole23]

Iran rocked our shit


Iran’s strikes on more than two dozen US bases in the Middle East focused on early-warning systems before hitting aircraft and buildings, causing billions of dollars in equipment damage, according to an Associated Press analysis.

The AP independently verified damage to American targets using satellite imagery from multiple providers and spoke to four regional officials who were briefed or have firsthand knowledge of what was hit. The AP found that, through August, more than 115 drone or missile strikes claimed by Iran or Iranian-backed militias damaged or destroyed structures on 26 military bases and other sites with US equipment.

The AP found that Iran initially focused its attacks on aircraft hangars and systems that detect incoming strikes, clearing the way for further strikes on warehouses, troop housing and more.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-strikes-on-us-mideast-bases-first-took-out-early-warning-systems-analyses-finds/

[Winehole23]

The damage has significantly reshaped the American foothold in the Middle East, with two regional officials saying the US has moved many of its assets out of the Persian Gulf. That includes aircraft, air defense systems, communications systems and other equipment crucial to base operations, one of those officials said.


The impact of the damage raises questions about American defenses in the region as President Donald Trump considers new strikes after Tuesday’s midterm elections and Tehran has vowed major retaliation.

[Winehole23]

if I had to guess, we'll have a politically timed announcement of a deal over the weekend or on Monday

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreie66qn3pz3v3twcvhxzmaf5vr2buqlyfv5sgrxns23wu fqkmw5zym

[Winehole23]

thanks for reminding everyone why he's so popular a day before the election


The U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal.-WSJ

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o6oolrt2732yxmr7juqrd2xo/bafkreiemlpndrkvvpbsvfzg36y7p3q5bywodx7ja5ptmhr4mu 5vuf67kxm