Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

the previous US military quagmire weighs in


Nearly 1,000 drone attacks targeted Saudi Arabia during the war, with up to half launched from inside Iraq, according to a Saudi assessment. -WSJ

[Winehole23]

last time the US Embassy in Iraq issued a warning, it said "leave by land routes"


this time it cautions US citizens flying out of the country to be cautious of "persistent threats from drones and missiles"


The US Embassy in Baghdad issued on Monday a new warning against going to Iraq, urging Americans currently there to leave immediately.


The embassy cautioned that Iran-aligned groups in Iraq are planning more assaults on US citizens and American-linked interests throughout the country, particularly northern Iraq.


Some members of the Iraqi government continue to deliberately offer political, financial, and operational cover for these terrorist groups, according to the embassy’s statement.


Iraqi airspace has been reopened, with few commercial aircraft now flying, according to the US Embassy in Iraq, which cautioned Americans considering air travel to be cautious of persistent threats from missiles and drones.
“The US Embassy in Iraq is still operational to support US citizens in the country,” according to the statement.


“Do not try to visit the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate general in Erbil due to substantial security threats,” the embassy advised, urging US nationals to contact authorities at the embassy and consulate via digital tools.
https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/us-urges-citizens-in-iraq-to-leave/

[Blake]

"A deal to end the Iran war seemed close. Then Trump started posting on social media"

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/politics/social-media-posts-trump-iran-deal

Moron.

[Winehole23]

"A deal to end the Iran war seemed close. Then Trump started posting on social media"

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/politics/social-media-posts-trump-iran-deal

Moron.sh!tposter in chief f@cking things up, as he does

hope he doesn't poast us into WWIII

[Winehole23]

Trump demanded peace talks, Iran told him to get bent.

So now he's extending the deadline -- the correct decision imo. Better to jaw-jaw than to war-war.

Trump has painted himself and the world economy into a corner with his whimsical war of choice on Iran. Pressure is still on, Trump's continuing the blockade.



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiapyplqq2qe5456z7fboomdtjnzumcz6puzp2gcthcmd 4ygyxgab4

[Winehole23]

32% approval on Iran in the new AP/NORC poll

https://apnorc.org/projects/fewer-approve-of-trumps-handling-of-the-economy/

[Winehole23]

sounds not necessarily good

it's like no one thought this war through



The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in the next few years, according to experts and three people familiar with recent internal Defense Department stockpile assessments.

Over the last seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its inventory of THAAD missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis (https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire) conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Those numbers closely align with classified Pentagon data about US stockpiles, according to the sources familiar with the assessment.

Earlier this year the Pentagon signed a series of contracts (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pentagon-says-it-will-ramp-up-war-supplies-with-defense-companies-2026-03-25/) that would help expand missile production, but the delivery timeline to replace these systems is three to five years even with the increased capacity, the CSIS experts and the sources said.

In the short term, the US likely maintains enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran, in any scenario, should the shaky ceasefire fail to hold. But the number of critical munitions remaining in US stockpiles is no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary, like China, and it will likely take years before the inventory of those weapons returns to pre-war levels, the CSIS analysis concludes
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/21/politics/us-military-missile-stockpile

[Winehole23]

one way I've heard this glossed is that the US doesn't have enough ships in the region to enforce the blockade

another way to read it is that Trump is scared to escalate, but he can't withdraw without looking like a loser -- he's got his d!ck caught in a crack


Iranian tankers bypass US blockade

Dozens of ships exiting the Gulf include several loaded with Iranian oil

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:aru6dx7luhdvtfefc3ltyj5w/bafkreie6tqnxsjlp26maogkinytldzbffn6yrkpxavjlgyl3j 42kpkvtxq
https://www.ft.com/content/21dff2c7-1e27-4f74-81d8-31dcdbe9188e?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Blake]

Trump demanded peace talks, Iran told him to get bent.

So now he's extending the deadline -- the correct decision imo. Better to jaw-jaw than to war-war.

Trump has painted himself and the world economy into a corner with his whimsical war of choice on Iran. Pressure is still on, Trump's continuing the blockade.

TACO TUESDAY

[Winehole23]

for a couple of days, the Iranian line has been that the ceasefire is little more than preparation for a renewed US attack


Continuation of a naval blockade amounts to continued hostility; as long as the blockade persists, Iran will at least not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and if necessary, it will break the blockade by force.-Tasnim


Iran did not request a ceasefire extension. -Tasnim

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump is so fucked. His "regime change" basically put the IRGC in charge and they are ten times worse than the old guy they killed on the first day. He is stuck. They aren't going to give him shit at the negotiations. If he starts bombing again trying to be a tough guy they will start blowing up middle east oil production and we will be looking at $150+'oil. I am so convinced he is that stupid I bought $100,000 of west Texas oil stocks friday when he basically claimed he had a deal and oil dropped and the stock market zoomed.

[SnakeBoy]

lol a whole $100k

[Winehole23]

^^^ no topical take, as usual

[Winehole23]

Trump is so fucked. His "regime change" basically put the IRGC in charge and they are ten times worse than the old guy they killed on the first day. He is stuck. They aren't going to give him shit at the negotiations. If he starts bombing again trying to be a tough guy they will start blowing up middle east oil production and we will be looking at $150+'oil. I am so convinced he is that stupid I bought $100,000 of west Texas oil stocks friday when he basically claimed he had a deal and oil dropped and the stock market zoomed.Trump stumbling into inflationary recession isn't the worst possible outcome here

[ChumpDumper]

lol a whole $100k

You said Iran surrendered.

What happened?

Please explain.

[Blake]

Trump is so fucked. His "regime change" basically put the IRGC in charge and they are ten times worse than the old guy they killed on the first day. He is stuck. They aren't going to give him shit at the negotiations. If he starts bombing again trying to be a tough guy they will start blowing up middle east oil production and we will be looking at $150+'oil. I am so convinced he is that stupid I bought $100,000 of west Texas oil stocks friday when he basically claimed he had a deal and oil dropped and the stock market zoomed.


lol a whole $100k

Not sure who is trying to big time more here.

[ChumpDumper]

How much did snacks' wife bet on oil?

[Winehole23]

Trump/Bibi killed the one guy who could sideline the IRGC and his replacement seems to be a non-factor. Iran's governance is in chaos and may not be agreement capable.

Unfortunately, something similar is true about the USA, which is depending on an irascible moron without object permanence for US strategy.


Why decapitation complicates war termination: "We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive" www.axios.com/newsletters/... (https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-88fec4af-92b9-48d1-9e5e-31806d509174.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top)

[Winehole23]

Trump mashed the button that makes the price of *everything* go up



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:whdyuznluo6jkl664y5xylr6/bafkreiflwxvdqkd7lluyvtdtnbzstatsxjf5ul4ne3sstewun jy3rikzg4

[CosmicCowboy]

If it comes down to who in Iran gets their way between the politicians and the IRGC I'm pretty sure it will be the ones with the guns that comes out on top.

[Winehole23]

sounds bad


The global aluminium market is experiencing a "black swan" event as disruptions due to the Middle #East war trigger a supply shock that will lead to major shortages this year, according to the top metals analyst at commodity trader Mercuria.

The region accounts for about 7 million metric tons of annual aluminium smelting capacity, or roughly 9% of the estimated global supply this ​year. Aluminium is a key material for the transport, construction and packaging industries


Mercuria estimates the market ​will face, at a minimum, a deficit of roughly 2 million tons between now and the end of the ​year. Snowdon said this estimate may prove conservative, as it assumes a near-term improvement in alumina flows via the Strait of Hormuz #will enable ⁠some smelters to restart production this quarter.

"That shortfall compares with about 1.5 million tons of visible inventory and just over 3 million tons of total global stock, including non-visible units, leaving the market with limited buffers," Snowdon said.
A larger deficit is possible if the conflict is extended and flows of alumina - a feedstock for aluminium production - to the Gulf are ​limited, he added.

Middle East aluminium ​cannot easily be replaced. In ⁠China, the world's top producer, there is an annual output limit of 45 million tons, while the U.S. and Europe have little idled capacity that could return.



Snowdon said the ​U.S. and Europe were particularly exposed to the supply shock because of low stocks.

Of the ​3.4 million tons ⁠of primary and alloyed aluminium that the U.S. imported last year, the Middle East accounted for nearly 22%, according to Trade Data Monitor, an information provider.

Europe imported around 1.2 million tons, or 18.5%, of its primary and alloyed aluminium from the ⁠Middle East ​last year, according to TDM.
h​ttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/aluminium-faces-black-swan-supply-shock-mercuria-says-2026-04-22/

[Winehole23]

public bailouts already starting

wonder where the money comes from


TRUMP ADMIN NEARS $500M RESCUE DEAL FOR SPIRIT AIRLINES: WSJ

[Blake]

public bailouts already starting

wonder where the money comes from

Hooray pure capitalism. Boo socialism. Amirite, Republicans?

[CosmicCowboy]

public bailouts already starting

wonder where the money comes from

Thats bullshit. They were bankrupt before jet fuel went up.

[CosmicCowboy]

What people seem to have forgotten is that China is the worlds largest oil importer importing 23% of the worlds oil production before the war. They had a large oil reserve they filled last year at $60 a barrel that have been drawing down since the war started but it is estimated that they will have to re-enter the oil market in 3-4 weeks and that should be when oil really spikes.

[ChumpDumper]

There are myriad things that people have forgotten or have no idea could/will happen.

And Trump didn't think of any of this.

I was hoping we could through his term without another global crisis like COVID while all these idiots in charge.

Turns out Trump wants to cause one himself.

[Blake]

We put someone with probably the worst case of hero syndrome ever in charge of things. Thanks America.

[Winehole23]

Thats bullshit. They were bankrupt before jet fuel went up.you sure?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bbp2b224lro3bfnzcqwwnkfo/bafkreibs7c7fo4jumolc27xqdvubr3bfywwhrrech7454mndx oan43shvqhttps://fortune.com/2026/04/20/spirit-airlines-bankruptcy-exit-jet-fuel-liquidation/

[Winehole23]

agriculture and mining aren't so important, are they?


The Persian Gulf accounts for more than half of all global ocean sulphur exports, making the region’s supply disruption a systemic shock to one of the world’s most industrially critical commodity chains. Sulphur, principally consumed through its derivative sulphuric acid, is regarded by the US Geological Survey as one of the most important raw materials underpinning global industrial and fertiliser production.https://splash247.com/war-turns-sulphur-market-toxic-in-acid-supply-shock/

[Winehole23]

Iran seizing ships now




HORMUZ SHIP ATTACKS: Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz this morning, saying its Revolutionary Guard seized two of them and further inflaming tensions over the key waterway. It comes after U.S. forces seized an Iranian ship and boarded a tanker linked to Tehran’s oil trade.
CEASEFIRE EXTENDED: President Donald Trump said last night (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116444507618729432) that he was extending the ceasefire with Iran (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-intelligence-agency-assessment-says-iran-still-significant-mi-rcna341068) indefinitely so its leaders “can come up with a unified proposal,” but that the U.S. naval blockade will continue. The truce was set to expire today, and Trump had vowed not to extend it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-iran-trump-ceasefire-hormuz-attack-peace-talks-israel-rcna341361

[Winehole23]

the Trump administration has been exaggerating its successes in the current war

"just a little excursion"


The Islamic Republic of Iran maintains more military capabilities than the White House or Pentagon has publicly admitted, according to multiple U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the matter.


About half of Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems were still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, three of the officials told CBS News.


Roughly 60% of the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still in existence, the officials said, including fast-attack speed boats (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-2-ships-attacked-peace-talks-jeopardize/). On Wednesday, Iranian gunboats attacked (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-ceasefire-strait-hormuz-ship-attacked-us-military-buildup/) several commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, shortly after President Trump announced he was unilaterally extending a ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.


Iranian air power has been significantly degraded but not erased, said the officials, who requested anonymity from CBS News because they were not authorized to discuss the matters publicly.


About two-thirds of Iran’s air force is still believed to be operational, the officials said, after an intensive U.S. and Israeli campaign that struck thousands of targets, including storage and production facilities.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-more-capable-than-trump-admin-publicly-acknowledging/

[Winehole23]

this is just fuel inflation so far, but it will pass through to increase the cost of almost everything


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HGgYG_6X0AA8GLd?format=jpg&name=mediumhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-21/here-comes-the-food-price-inflation

[Winehole23]

inflated prices for urea are hitting farmers, which will drive up food prices in turn


https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/idWt.CxTsJHk/v0/-1x-1.webp

[Winehole23]

the chances of global recession aren't just nonzero, they're significant

thanks, Donald Trump


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:amd3vczdne6w5wn63sla5h3x/bafkreibk7vrlr25cca42ewiukuwtnivwhaejv7g3bvlx7wnj3 czu7hpcxy

[Winehole23]

Tactics without strategy is a Trump/Hegseth specialty


Because of highly imprudent utilization of munitions in the Iran War, the US now assesses that it is no longer in a position to defend Taiwan should China decide to attack, reports WSJ. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

[Winehole23]

Would the US blow up TSMC to keep China from getting it?

Hard to say.

[Winehole23]

$32,000 out of millions wagered

Lol Trumplandia sacrificing a grunt to protect higher-ups


US special forces soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested and charged for allegedly betting on that operation, netting him $400,000 in profits.

According to an indictment unsealed Thursday, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke opened an account in late December on Polymarket, one of the best-known prediction markets. He wagered about $32,000 that Maduro would be “out” by January. The bet was a long-shot.

But Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, prosecutors allege, and had access to classified information before he placed the bet. His winnings, though anonymous, caught the attention of law enforcement almost immediately.

[Winehole23]

this "two week war" started in February, it's almost May


While it’s uncertain how many of the explosive devices Iran has placed in the strait, the impression of a minefield is enough to keep ships away, said Sal Mercogliano, an adjunct professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. “The problem is that if there’s a fear of a mine, which exists right now, you’ve got to prove that there” aren’t any mines, Mercogliano said in an X post Monday that included an interview with an Australian news station. “That requires extensive mine sweep operations.”

That effort likely won’t take place until after the war, members of the House Armed Services Committee learned Tuesday in a classified briefing with a senior Pentagon official, The Washington Post reported Wednesday. Committee members also were told that it could take as long as six months to fully clear the strait of an estimated 20 or more mines, according to the Post report, which cited three anonymous officials.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell acknowledged that the disclosure was made in a briefing but said the information was inaccurate, the paper said. U.S. Central Command said Monday that it couldn’t discuss specifics about mines in the Strait of Hormuz or efforts to clear them, citing operational security.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-04-23/mines-hormuz-navy-iran-21461436.html

[Blake]

Why haven't we wiped out an entire civilization as promised?

[Winehole23]

wut



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rmn6mvqjgmemgtl2cpkznar7/bafkreigy2lvcir273sq57pgc4csdbi55g6kbysmlcilvfthuf g6yg5hvuy

[Winehole23]

.

[ChumpDumper]

How about we just jump to the end with no taxpayer cost?

[Winehole23]

All of the ominous signs that have preceded previous “surprise attacks” on Iran are here: the markets are closed for the weekend, Kushner and Witkoff are headed to Pakistan for negotiations, and US forces are assembling across West Asia.

[Winehole23]

https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/double-image-2026-04-23T152841.097.png?w=1600&quality=80&webp=1

https://assets.newsweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/fullimg-36.png?w=1600&quality=80&webp=1


"Recent reports alleging food shortages and poor quality aboard our deployed ships are false. Both USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli have sufficient food onboard to serve their crews with healthy options. The health and well-being of our Sailors and Marines are my top priority, and every crew member continues to receive fully portioned, nutritionally balanced meals.

"Regarding mail and personal packages, a temporary hold on sending mail into theater, due to combat operations, has been lifted. Our logistical network is highly adaptable, and we remain committed to supporting our warfighters as they execute Operation Epic Fury. The U.S. Navy possesses an unmatched logistics capability to sustain operations at sea, and routine menu adjustments are simply how we optimize our endurance to keep our warships in the fight."

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (https://perma.cc/ZC43-PVPQ)also weighed in, adding: "The U.S. Navy is correct. More FAKE NEWS from the Pharisee Press. My team confirmed the logistics stats for the Lincoln & Tripoli. Both have 30+ days of Class I supplies (food) on board. NavCent monitors this everyday, for every ship. Our sailors deserve—and receive—the best."
https://www.newsweek.com/more-photos-emerge-meals-navy-ships-pentagon-denies-shortages-11867712

[ChumpDumper]

TSA and snacks need to explain why Trump made this happen.

2048037767003640021

https://x.com/TVietor08/status/2048037767003640021

[Winehole23]

hiding the damage and the danger



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnqqzvrc4kh2dzp5ccjiskdz/bafkreiedddxmhfrwmpflfhnr7ccsybkvwgzf2hxduscntbie2 iqk6ilaii

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-caused-extensive-damage-us-military-bases-publicly-known-rcna331853

[Winehole23]

The report said that the damages from Iran’s retaliatory strikes against US military bases in seven Middle Eastern countries were “far worse than publicly acknowledged and is expected to cost billions of dollars to repair.”


Iran has hit dozens of targets, including warehouses, command headquarters, aircraft hangars, satellite communications infrastructure, runways, high-end radar systems, and dozens of aircraft, the report said.


The Pentagon has not detailed the extent of the damage to US military bases publicly, according to the report, with US Central Command declining to comment on battle damage assessments.
According to the report, some Republican lawmakers privately expressed their dissatisfaction with senior Pentagon officials for refusing to provide information on the extent of the damage or a cost estimate for repairs.


“No one knows anything. And it’s not for lack of asking,” one congressional aide was quoted by NBC News as saying. “We have been asking for weeks and not getting specifics, even as the Pentagon is asking for a record high budget.”

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-inflicted-extensive-damage-to-us-bases-than-previously-disclosed-report/3917950

[Winehole23]

surely an exaggeration, but one that the USA is duty-bound to leave unrefuted as to any specifics

Iran seems to have preconditions for talking, like striking US bases and withdrawing forces from the region


IRGC: U.S. bases in the region are no longer reconstructible, and the only way forward is swift and unconditional withdrawal.-Tasnim

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eg77ln3so3p7zjlvmsecp4ss/bafkreihdrmajrz3kyecvqkp5ojsfyahjkmivitw2q2ldaixsy pylj5fzvy

[Winehole23]

"The Iranians gave us a document that was supposed to be better, and it's interesting to note that the moment I canceled the trip, within 10 minutes, we received a new document that was much better... They offered a lot, but not enough.”

[ChumpDumper]

He should post the totally real and not made up bullshit document on his social media site.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2bqqvvbljclouzkz5r3oq36o/bafkreigkm5xrjfzhbiazsjfeyzsxnhmhvs75qxurv64zasqd6 5hm64p5me

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:qrbf6qdzqbhfuipf7mck4avy/bafkreicbklnfory4lttqba6bj22ylpqo3nbn53eqcwjgqu3sh ki4d2pbbm

[ChumpDumper]

So why did they go in the first place and why bring them all the way back? It's not like they have actual positions in government.

2048110235387117856

https://x.com/Osint613/status/2048110235387117856

[Blake]

So why did they go in the first place and why bring them all the way back? It's not like they have actual positions in government.

2048110235387117856

https://x.com/Osint613/status/2048110235387117856

Is the threat to destroy their civilization still in place?

[ChumpDumper]

Is the threat to destroy their civilization still in place?That card seems to be missing tbh.

[Blake]

The Pentagon has used at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; 50% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors inventory; and almost half of its stockpile of Patriot ballistic interceptor missiles—all within the first seven weeks of war with Iran, according to an analysis published this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

https://fortune.com/2026/04/24/us-military-depleted-half-most-expensive-missiles-cost-of-iran-war/

That's about $24 billion.

[Winehole23]

we've spent ~8 trillion on Iraq/Afghanistan so far

was it worth it?

[Winehole23]

Tactics without strategy is the noise before a loss

Trump surrendered to the Taliban in 2020, now he's losing to Iran


The German chancellor also claimed that Washington “quite obviously went into this war without any strategy”, and said the Iranian leadership had been “negotiating very skilfully”.

Mr Merz said: “The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. The problem with conflicts like this is always: you don’t just have to get in, you have to get out again.

“We saw that very painfully in Afghanistan for 20 years. We saw it in Iraq. A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/merz-iran-has-humiliated-trump/ar-AA21Q8Co

[ChumpDumper]

lol openly shitting on Trump. Europe DGAF anymore now that they took out the trash.

[Winehole23]

Asian countries putting their economies on life support are not going to forget who precipitated it


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bbp2b224lro3bfnzcqwwnkfo/bafkreifjx7ffmipgajznc6qodsnblmrwxayxcj7la5lvomg6z glptz32fi

[Winehole23]

Budget Airlines Ask Trump Administration for Billions as Fuel Costs Rise

A trade group for the airlines is seeking $2.5 billion to help offset the big jump in jet fuel costs since the start of U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/budget-airlines-trump-bailout.html?unlocked_article_code=1.eVA.cgb2.aheU VJrX77lF&smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

We the taxpayers are going to pay companies $900 million, which is more than 6x what we spend on wind power R&D, to NOT build wind power at a time when electricity prices are spiking and we need more clean power?https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/budget-airlines-trump-bailout.html?unlocked_article_code=1.eVA.cgb2.aheU VJrX77lF&smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Blake]

DOGE seems like a distant faded memory of yesteryear.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreia3kafuwfg4o7ejotwnqhx4o2643w7dal2yaocqt7r54 q6qlr6wyi

[Winehole23]

Trump's response is to try to manipulate the market


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreidkefglhzyyfaggxaami5qplqbl3wfwwi55yy53ywspn iwhf252qe

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:66lbtw2porscqpmair6mir37/bafkreia76uxxob657pz5av45j7wxuvcry4ovnooxdsu54yi35 zdaufwnhe

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nyjm4ylfid2a7mjm6varxuiq/bafkreig3zp3zaxnei47hcyp6pw2frdpfbotk2s7rsh3e5di4h an43nh2y4

[Winehole23]

Trump is trying to game out how to cut and run like the weak b!tch he is

(disclosure: I'm all in favor of Trump continuing to act like a weak b!tch)



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieefimshdrqoomjhv6ctiwlsbsusljcrs6xzakavrygz r3qxxkpyi

[Winehole23]

NO ONE COULD HAVE FORESEEN THIS



“.. Several U.S. officials told Axios they're concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal. In this scenario, the U.S. would have to keep its forces in the region for many more months. ..”

[Winehole23]

declaring victory and leaving Iran in charge of Hormuz would be an epochal loss

if the US keeps the blockade and Hormuz doesn't open, the supply shock would tend to become an inflationary recession

[Blake]

NO ONE COULD HAVE FORESEEN THIS

Fucking idiots. Fuck.

[ChumpDumper]

Trump is trying to game out how to cut and run like the weak b!tch he is

(disclosure: I'm all in favor of Trump continuing to act like a weak b!tch)

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieefimshdrqoomjhv6ctiwlsbsusljcrs6xzakavrygz r3qxxkpyi
They'd make another Lego video and then carry on like they did before the war.

The price for peace is gonna go up every passing week. Trump can characterize it any way he wants but he lost and basically handed the world to China, which will at least be a stable partner.

[Winehole23]

tell it to Lloyd's of London

unreal levels of cope

https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.46x22Q4NpaRv47EZptw-fQHaFa?w=219&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3


* HORMUZ CAN OPEN WITHOUT CLEARING ALL MINES, US ENERGY CHIEF SAYS -- BLOOMBERG NEWS

[Blake]

Why is the US Energy Chief making that statement?

[Winehole23]

Why is the US Energy Chief making that statement?maybe the calculation here is that like principals like Trump/Hegseth/Rubio are all out of credibility, so it's better to make announcements through lesser known officials

[Winehole23]

sleepwalking into trouble


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreichrj7uvrf4bnf4w7tezvna4fcwibxgny4rhlirtye5y uhktl3qcm
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreig5rmdeu62hbz3gv6kmn7vost2oqyc3nebo6risc2tqz 72ipz7cpihttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/toyota-suppliers-start-to-see-shortages-due-to-iran-conflict

[Winehole23]

"In an era when firms carry minimal buffer stock and rely on highly optimized supply chains, a prolonged war that creates disruptions in air and shipping routes would most likely cause severe supply chain shocks with a ripple effect reverberating throughout the world," Mohammad Elahee, a professor of international business at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, told China Daily.


Elahee predicted that manufacturers and businesses located in Asia must brace for possibly higher costs across the board if disruptions in the strait continue.


This is because "even a temporary disruption in Hormuz would produce severe supply shocks, inflating costs across manufacturing, industry, and consumer goods while compressing economic growth projections," according to Elahee.



"The retail and e-commerce sectors, which depend on vast logistics networks, will experience cost increases embedded in nearly every product they move, resulting in price escalation for consumers," said Elahee.https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202603/20/WS69bcb0b6a310d6866eb3ee48.html

[Blake]

2049467038897238455

I mean, if you keep TACOing, what would anyone do except laugh at you drawing pictures of yourself?

[Winehole23]

a moribund US Congress is stirring, faintly

if Congress doesn't authorize, by law troops are supposed to be withdrawn

in practice, Trump DNGAF about the law or Congress


“At some point, people cross some sort of threshold and start to be very uncomfortable with it. I don’t know exactly where that is, but I am sensing restlessness among many of my colleagues,” said another GOP senator familiar with intraparty dynamics.


There’s more evidence of that restlessness: Four Republican senators introduced a bill on Tuesday to cut tariffs and duties on Moroccan fertilizer imports as fertilizer prices rise because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Many Republicans have accepted reassurances from the administration that Trump won’t send ground troops, and the GOP Congress writ large is reluctant to get directly involved in the war.


That dynamic may change after Friday.


“The 60-days [mark] is very important to me. The War Powers Act makes clear that at the 60-day point the Congress needs to authorize any further military action,” Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, told Semafor. “Sixty days is a trigger that requires Congress to act.”
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/28/2026/the-60-day-itch-iran-war-weighs-on-republicans

[Winehole23]

if the SOH remains closed for two months like Trump is suggesting, second and third order effects will be wild


ITALY TRANSPORT MINISTER: JET FUEL RESERVES AVAILABLE IN ITALY ENOUGH TO ENSURE OPERATIONS AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF MAY

[CosmicCowboy]

2049467038897238455

I mean, if you keep TACOing, what would anyone do except laugh at you drawing pictures of yourself?

He may just be stupid enough to do it. If he starts bombing again Iran will start blowing up their neighbors oil shit again and a supply disruption could easily evolve into a worldwide disaster. Brendt Crude is already $119 today. One wild card is China has been running on their strategic rserve but will have to start buying on the market soon with ocean transit times. They currently use 23% of the worlds production. Add that pressure and we could be looking at $150+ oil.

[SnakeBoy]

Omg Trump is destroying the world but also TACO haha nothing happened but also OMG Trump is destroying the world but also TACO haha nothing happened but OMG Trump is destroying the world...ya'll are stuck in a loop

[Winehole23]

^^^what an airhead

[Winehole23]

RIP LIV


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:o7x4sqhqlyfllq5o5zf2to4f/bafkreidv56y2aveldmlzknmc4j6nv7xm4jlcjeafo6e7t3d5q cnvfpwz7a

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:e4musdh2uni44id3q5fhks2l/bafkreiaokk5gmuvbcleps6rqcbsa7gd2mnagzg7wuyrxsjdlp jxtx5o3ce

[ChumpDumper]

Omg Trump is destroying the world but also TACO haha nothing happened but also OMG Trump is destroying the world but also TACO haha nothing happened but OMG Trump is destroying the world...ya'll are stuck in a loop
You are stuck in a quagmire.

Again.

You fucked up.

[Blake]

Omg Trump is destroying the world but also TACO haha nothing happened but also OMG Trump is destroying the world but also TACO haha nothing happened but OMG Trump is destroying the world...ya'll are stuck in a loop

He keeps threatening to destroy Iran. He TACOs out. We win nothing. Our prices go up.

Are you really this stupid that you can't keep up?

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:e4musdh2uni44id3q5fhks2l/bafkreiaokk5gmuvbcleps6rqcbsa7gd2mnagzg7wuyrxsjdlp jxtx5o3ce

"LOL LIBS!!!"

-Snakes in the backseat of his wife's Honda Odyssey as she's angrily pumping $4 gas

[Winehole23]

He keeps threatening to destroy Iran. He TACOs out. We win nothing. Our prices go up.

Are you really this stupid that you can't keep up?He really is that stupid

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:drfb2pdjlnsqkfgsoellcahm/bafkreicmljrq2mwkcjy4qss2fqw6wqsn6qeqyn2dhgfgt2ek6 f4dbdqchq

[Winehole23]

Trump 86ing a major logistics hub during a war because Chancellor Merz said something mean

why not

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreiccxbqknygdbd4nflgyjh2qyp4gii32esksf7zh4emrb hwyc4c5fe

[Winehole23]

JPMORGAN:

The war’s limited energy squeeze — so far — “assumes the Strait opens before inventories are depleted to the point that operational minimums are hit ..

“The risk of this happening is rising, and leads us to consider a more adverse scenario with a non-linear spike in energy prices.”

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidepxnhl3l7ftupaj4m5sgr4d5swz3kpzsdv2uyhbxd5 7rt4hgv6y

[SnakeBoy]

"LOL LIBS!!!"

-Snakes in the backseat of his wife's Honda Odyssey as she's angrily pumping $4 gas

Why would she drive a Honda Odyssey? And why would she even notice the price of gas?

[ChumpDumper]

Why would she drive a Honda Odyssey? And why would she even notice the price of gas?You never expressed one iota of support for this war.

lol

[Blake]

Why would she drive a Honda Odyssey? And why would she even notice the price of gas?

Because she's the one paying for it.

[Winehole23]

It's not over yet

After starting a dumb war without consulting allies or trying to get them on board before hand -- then insulting them for not participating -- now Trump is begging them for help


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rtn5fulluugrej6fyh5n52oo/bafkreicpxeflagyavr2vblprcetmlogsezg5u3ypi6quxyh6u hsi2lxzqihttps://san.com/cc/us-seeks-international-help-to-restart-shipping-in-strait-of-hormuz/

[Blake]

The crew of NASA’s Artemis II visited the White House Wednesday to celebrate their successful mission around the moon, but they ended up roped into one of the president’s diatribes against NATO.

The astronauts were visibly uncomfortable flanking Donald Trump behind the Resolute Desk as he tossed questions their way regarding the country’s participation in the strategic alliance.

https://newrepublic.com/post/209665/donald-trump-artemis-ii-astronauts-nato

LOL he can't even let astronauts returning from a big trip have a moment

[Winehole23]

Israel is Gazafying Southern Lebanon


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:keg556wyu4ly47xqratgwfi6/bafkreihcw7p5la67nsgmvd5k26l5ccwnzl3nccbe27uhyyr7m bdbi3qwwihttps://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-04-29/ty-article/.premium/israeli-troops-face-deadly-hezbollah-drones-amid-south-lebanon-home-demolitions/0000019d-d5cc-d623-ad9f-ffdfc5b70000

[Winehole23]

the Vietnam war in 1971 was approximately as popular



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6evvy4zoggoua62f26hk5p7z/bafkreibrquu3qti7vzvjrnwvaxxgsrp3cxsziij3tacucmyr7 6ynce3u3ihttps://www.statista.com/statistics/1334328/vietnam-war-us-public-opinion-mistake/

[Winehole23]

today is the 23rd anniversary

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wufsdxzvzx36d7wppganbvpw/bafkreia4xzn45qfdguaxppxtrystfvsamueq5yacugdjjnekk 6w7cru2ze

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wufsdxzvzx36d7wppganbvpw/bafkreicsofpfryo3epmyupgrx3jxtx7cg33726qztwrs57bty w2insfuz4

[Blake]

So it was a war?

That we're no longer really in but we're still gonna keep troops over there to fight them if they don't bend to Trump's demands. Just so we're clear.

[Winehole23]

The United States is not at war for purposes of the War Powers Act clock, but is at war for purposes of characterizing dissent or opposition as treason.

[Winehole23]

Trump has all the cards, but he doesn't know what game he's playing

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:q7wmkrvcto52ydwb4uwqzbju/bafkreiaglrvtbe2wt6qhbg5jau4pnmxqgnl473vcxg2qfamfw dgejlnar4

[ChumpDumper]

Well, play a fucking card then.

[Winehole23]

Well, play a fucking card then.he'll do something very dumb that looks tough like the loser he is

standing pat and negotiating to reopen Hormuz is probably the best option among the bad options we have

declaring victory and withdrawing US troops might be another, but it can't be done without bringing Israel to heel first

[Winehole23]

Republican wingnuts are off the rez

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreiewunluz35owdi5y4426hbo2qkkn6qltbq27zwngari2 vpid3b7tq

[Blake]

Republican wingnuts are off the rez

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreiewunluz35owdi5y4426hbo2qkkn6qltbq27zwngari2 vpid3b7tq

Wow.

[Winehole23]

it’s amazing that the Trump admin saw this bring down Biden and then decided to deliberately slam their dicks in the same door




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:drfb2pdjlnsqkfgsoellcahm/bafkreicmljrq2mwkcjy4qss2fqw6wqsn6qeqyn2dhgfgt2ek6 f4dbdqchq

[Winehole23]

He may just be stupid enough to do it. If he starts bombing again Iran will start blowing up their neighbors oil shit again and a supply disruption could easily evolve into a worldwide disaster. Brendt Crude is already $119 today. One wild card is China has been running on their strategic rserve but will have to start buying on the market soon with ocean transit times. They currently use 23% of the worlds production. Add that pressure and we could be looking at $150+ oil. if exponential price adjustment happens in the wake of Iran retaliating on GCC infrastructure, it could get much worse than that

[Winehole23]

$350/bbl+ oil can happen if Iran takes out Ras Tanura

[Winehole23]

(reportedly)

[Blake]

$350/bbl+ oil can happen if Iran takes out Ras Tanura

OBLITERATED!*

[Winehole23]

OBLITERATED!*not yet, tbh

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreih3ejudye3owy5rtxcgm6d4liarrsj6cai4aicv6ousd 6icghnnji

[Blake]

not yet, tbh

But the white house said so. Until they said otherwise.

[Winehole23]

once oil stockpiles are exhausted, price increase becomes exponential

this is what $200/bbl oil could look like

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHY-7QcWsAAYfMj?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

2051077244269850758

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHZVuT9XUAAPPrA?format=jpg&name=900x900

[velik_m]

It looks like hostilities are starting up again.

[Winehole23]

this 5D chess take basically assumes that the US has started WW3

can't think of any stronger motive for the rest of the world to electrify and pivot away from oil and gas wherever possible

https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery

[Winehole23]

Iran fired on US ships, the US sunk Iranian ships, but the ceasefire is intact

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:q4ovgljecfxpw4rh574pvqxz/bafkreiaq5kt6uer2445jqaxoqcngk3xeoknvm6rjuojb4wt5v ikaskx5xy



Q: In the last 24 hours, Iran has fired at us. We've fired at Iran. Is the ceasefire over?

HEGSETH: No, the ceasefire is not over. Ultimately, this is a separate and distinct project.

[Blake]

Anything to avoid calling this a war.

[CosmicCowboy]

Iran attacking UAE again.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895207

[Blake]

Iran attacking UAE again.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895207

IRAN BETTER GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER! NO MORE MR NICE GUY!

But we'll allow the ceasefire agreement to continue.

BUT THEY HAVE 2-3 DAYS TO AGREE TO TERMS

but we'll give them 2-3 weeks.


This fucking clown

[CosmicCowboy]

I think that one drone that hit Fujairah yesterday was a warning not to start the bonbing campaign again or they would knock out that port.

[Blake]

I think that one drone that hit Fujairah yesterday was a warning not to start the bonbing campaign again or they would knock out that port.

Well Trump will just reverse warn them right back that he's NO MORE MR NICE GUY!

Even if that means giving weeks and weeks more of angry extensions.

[CosmicCowboy]

double post

[Winehole23]

Iran attacking UAE again.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895207Reportedly, UAE has been attacking them back.

Also reportedly, Saudi Arabia wants the US to escalate

[CosmicCowboy]

I can't believe the oil market believes Trumps "Iran really want's to negotiate". Down 10% today, back up 15% tomorrow when Iran tells him to fuck off.

[Spurs Homer]

That 1 page memorandum!

Genius!

Why spend years crafting an agreement like that sucker "Obamna" and have int'l inspectors verifying nuke materials and involve the int'l community leaders all over the planet - that actually worked as designed to reduce Irans nuke program;

when you can just do a 1 page memorandum from trump troof social musings?

Jenius!

[ChumpDumper]

Everyone knows this is just going to end up with a worse JCPOA. Why draw it out and destroy the world economy?

[CosmicCowboy]

Everyone knows this is just going to end up with a worse JPCOA. Why draw it out and destroy the world economy?

When Trump had "all the cards" he forgot to tell us he was playing 52 Pickup.

[Blake]

52D chess

[ChumpDumper]

JFC what did I say?

2052034849116979245

https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/2052034849116979245

[Winehole23]

Saudi Arabia forced Trump to do a U-turn on Project Freedom


Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.

A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trumps-abrupt-u-turn-plan-re-open-strait-hormuz-came-backlash-allies-rcna343845

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fwputkzhhk4nmxyosaqygto7/bafkreid5we66wq4ovqkxai2ba6bz6r4gdj3eblf5vnu2c3en5 tbxhjpubq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:kdgcvfaickr7turpo6suzbqp/bafkreicz47qpy7hjezdygepy4z3ljpfkllqrmlriwtgpe5jnh 7twq22b74

[velik_m]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fwputkzhhk4nmxyosaqygto7/bafkreid5we66wq4ovqkxai2ba6bz6r4gdj3eblf5vnu2c3en5 tbxhjpubq

Malacca is pretty easy to bypass.

[ChumpDumper]

2052159027430203778

https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/2052159027430203778

[Winehole23]

Malacca is pretty easy to bypass.before Trump 2.0, militarization of maritime chokepoints was a theoretical conversation -- no more


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qfwinostecndnbvwwunsmihi/bafkreihalgwh7sjxheqbjfqksbequolmskhnomjpt4pb4ihx7 y3okyhnf4

[Winehole23]

Iran substantially wrecked our sh!t


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHo1mdCXwAEw1qY?format=png&name=900x900


Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.


The threat of air attacks rendered some of the U.S. bases in the region too dangerous to staff at normal levels, and commanders moved most of the personnel from these sites out of the range of Iranian fire at the start of the war, officials have said….


“The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel, who reviewed the Iranian images at The Post’s request….


But the review by The Post — based on images dating from the war’s start through April 14 — reveals that scores of additional targets were struck at the sites, which are predominantly used by the U.S. military but shared with the host nations’ military forces and allies.


In all, The Post found 217 structures and 11 pieces of equipment that were damaged or destroyed at 15 U.S. military sites in the region….


[in addition to accommodation facilities] The Post also found that the attacks hit a satellite communications site at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Patriot missile defense equipment at Riffa and Isa air bases in Bahrain and Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, a satellite dish at the Naval Support Activity Bahrain — which serves as the headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet — a power plant at Camp Buehring in Kuwait and five fuel storage bladder sites across three bases.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9. eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzc4MDQwMDAwLCJpc3 MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzc5NDIyMzk5LCJp YXQiOjE3NzgwNDAwMDAsImp0aSI6IjU0ZWQ2ZGVjLTRmODAtND M0ZC1hZDBjLTc5ZmRmYTFjZjQ3YyIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8v d3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9pbnZlc3RpZ2F0aW9ucy 8yMDI2LzA1LzA2L2lyYW4tdXMtYmFzZXMtc2F0ZWxsaXRlLWlt YWdlcy8ifQ.RBX_TE9W8T2F7vVkkpNTuxyt30SEx9pyYU3y0I5 g4lk

[Winehole23]

Experts who reviewed The Post’s analysis said the damage at the sites suggested that the U.S. military had underestimated Iran’s targeting abilities, not adapted sufficiently to modern drone warfare and left some bases under-protected.


Some Persian Gulf nations have refused to allow the U.S. military to conduct offensive operations out of their bases. A U.S. official said bases in Bahrain and Kuwait were two of the hardest hit, possibly because they permitted attacks from their territory

[Winehole23]

Chief among them, experts said, is that Iranian forces have been more resilient than the Trump administration may have anticipated. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a think tank, said plans to destroy Iran’s missile and drone forces fast enough to prevent them from inflicting serious damage underestimated “the depth of Iran’s pre-positioned targeting intelligence on fixed U.S. infrastructure.”

Grieco said the strategy also failed to account for the degree to which U.S. and Israeli air defenses had been used up during the 12-day conflict in June between Iran, Israel and the United States.

[Winehole23]

A U.S. official said that damage at the Naval Support Activity is “extensive” and that the headquarters there relocated to MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, the home of U.S. Central Command. It is unlikely that troops, contractors or civilian employees will return to the base “anytime soon,” the official said.

Two other officials said U.S. forces may never return to regional bases in large numbers, though no final decision has been made.

“We have moved from an age of stealth to one where the entire battlespace is translucent and increasingly transparent,” said Bremer. “It feels like we should be on offense, but we are definitely playing defense around these bases.”

[Winehole23]

it's like people are aware of official market-moving announcements in advance


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHoxX6yWQAYtPZT?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

it's too obvious for mere handwaving by now

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:mfrcz3kv7bsth54bkyrridp5/bafkreia5hp4djbvrtzqmrbex6xpdsyopchcldfndiyjjb52uu mfz3bvvdu

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fwputkzhhk4nmxyosaqygto7/bafkreid5we66wq4ovqkxai2ba6bz6r4gdj3eblf5vnu2c3en5 tbxhjpubq

IF THEY TOLL US WE'LL HIT THEM WITH 100 MILLION % TARIFF.

[Winehole23]

scuttlebutt, but plausible


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cmvp2dfgs7qrfjo5n27limmf/bafkreihikvdp7ynuwyhr3kgvtgtbkth6znv2dbjewfwwfvhls 3a34vslqq
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cmvp2dfgs7qrfjo5n27limmf/bafkreicg27cjidyu7von65h476lkvkzcnyyxxl7eqvrjywu3x e6ihm5vpm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tcafytbuykbsrmuockmjncrr/bafkreifnd7vg3ifojqj2loldydwcaxl2ncnrwa6upo43o5muu 6t4wnkk34

[ChumpDumper]

They didn't like Operation Punching Bag?

[Winehole23]

Hegseth and Trump are delusional or have been lying to us nonstop


A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse...

U.S. intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers & about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles, per a U.S. official. The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities & repair damaged missiles

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vt5lhndgsrzylhokv42773wg/bafkreibgzcqf26yqaikr475zadniul3r3q65l7lzyyla2ee55 xgvnemykqhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/

[Winehole23]

This is shaping up to be a bigger strategic loss for the USA than Iraq/Afghanistan

Republicans suck at war and government

[Winehole23]

RAPIDAN: “.. Hormuz reopening no earlier than June in our base case ..

“.. Global crude and product storage will hit operational minima by September at the latest if Hormuz isn’t reopened before then, but sharp price increases will curb demand long before those levels are reached.”

[Blake]

This is shaping up to be a bigger strategic loss for the USA than Iraq/Afghanistan

Republicans suck at war and government

They suck at standing up to Trump if nothing else. Jellyfish.

[Winehole23]

strategery

(Craig Harrington didn't mention Iran's higher end missiles, but the rate of attrition is reportedly similar to the lower end)


U.S. intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers & about 70% of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles, per a U.S. official. The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities & repair damaged missiles


Basically, the U.S. spent ~40-50% of its stockpile of high-end munitions (each is effectively irreplaceable given how long it takes to make) to destroy ~25-30% of Iran’s stockpile of low-end easily replaced munitions.

[Winehole23]

They didn't like Operation Punching Bag?The Saudis thought they bought protection -- by now they've noticed that Trump doesn't stay bought

[Winehole23]

Iran lies, so who knows what really happened

I see no US announcement for this incident yet

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7oibz675iuquffrdoar7cifc/bafkreihubs3dszdli3ltnogzfgy3vzioqvyfgvis4ohkh2slm v2aishh5m

[Winehole23]

here we go

looks like a good way to scuttle negotiation


A jet from the San Diego-based USS Abraham Lincoln (https://www.facebook.com/USSLincoln/) fired on an Iranian tanker Wednesday that was attempting to evade the U.S. blockade.

Central Command (http://www.centcom.mil/) said a Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fired several rounds from its 20mm cannon (https://www.gdots.com/armaments/aircraft-guns-gun-systems/m61a1/) to disable the rudder of the M/T Hasna (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9212917).

The 300-foot-long tanker was in the Gulf of Oman, heading to an Iranian port, and ignored warnings.

“After Hasna’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings, U.S. forces disabled the tanker’s rudder by firing several rounds,” Centcom said in a statement. “Hasna is no longer transiting to Iran.”
The military action took place at approximately 6 a.m. Pacific time.
https://www.newsbreak.com/share/4635409129506-jet-from-uss-abraham-lincoln-fires-on-iranian-tanker-evading-blockade

[Blake]

here we go

looks like a good way to scuttle negotiation

https://www.newsbreak.com/share/4635409129506-jet-from-uss-abraham-lincoln-fires-on-iranian-tanker-evading-blockade

incoming Hegseth post: "DON'T WORRY CEASEFIRE STILL IN PLACE"

[Winehole23]

incoming Hegseth post: "DON'T WORRY CEASEFIRE STILL IN PLACE"Hegseth is going to get canned. He's a moron and his whole department hates him.

But more importantly, Trump will punish Hegseth for embarrassing him and leading him into an historic loss.

[Winehole23]

incoming Hegseth post: "DON'T WORRY CEASEFIRE STILL IN PLACE"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oqexhdqbizq24v6ikjhhig2h/bafkreih6xopt25rjkcndjovcmoeq4wgd6pcgiqw3h66uhq7ru qfbrcctni

[Winehole23]

"no great damage"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreia7gkahj3rkbn3dxhcch2omxff6oeet2h4zklxyfrolz j2am3dpbq

[ChumpDumper]

US escorts itself out of the strait.

[Winehole23]

US escorts itself out of the strait.one wonders if we were asked to leave, but it's probably a good idea for US ships to get out of range of Iranian fire

[ChumpDumper]

This is getting sad. TSA will declare any deal a massive win so Trump should just take whatever is on the table now. Otherwise we're just wasting a $1,000,000,000 a day for nothing.

Black President was better. Hands down.

Especially Trump's undead hands.

[Winehole23]

Iran attacks UAE



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zpsqpskfugko6a4zimze3uel/bafkreih3yg4amudiylo4egr3zkyfnyc6doxieziqhcot73o6v cqeqjsmw4

[Winehole23]

Earlier today


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/bafkreid7ddgjzb7dp67vmxoswk6rh4ok33i3mqu2otnz2avko sjrrz66wi

[Winehole23]

Egypt enters the fray


Egypt has reportedly deployed fighter jets to assist in the defense of the United Arab Emirates. Earlier, President El-Sisi visited the UAE, where he met with Emirati President Bin Zayed &reaffirmed Egypt's support for the security& stability of the UAE."

[Winehole23]

Iranian state media blamed UAE for today's attack on Qeshm

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/07/768233/Enemy-strikes-Iran’s-vital-Qeshm-Island-pier--Israel-issues-hasty-denial

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qhuazlf22zcyeeotyrgjm2zj/bafkreiagzrqc53ckiyk4pxcbrfz5v7wcwbcqb4p2jqqzdgfvr ako3qcysm

[Winehole23]

Q: After today's strikes, is the ceasefire with Iran still on?

TRUMP: Yeah it is. They trifled with us today. We blew them away. If there's no ceasefire, you'll see one big glow coming out of Iran. They better sign an agreement fast.

[Winehole23]

talks like a deranged gangster, is a scared loser

[Winehole23]

Türkiye is preparing legislation to formally claim disputed maritime zones in the Aegean and Mediterranean.

Source: Bloomberg

[Winehole23]

Saudi Arabia did not allow its airspace to be used in support of the latest offensive operations in Iran, Saudi officials tell ITV News

[Winehole23]

shenanigans


A series of well-timed market bets on falling oil prices totalling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by US President Donald Trump, according to traders, market experts and Reuters analysis of exchange data.


The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the US administration to warn staff against using nonpublic information for financial benefit. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters in April, although the CFTC has yet to officially confirm a probe is underway.

[Winehole23]

* RUBIO ON IRAN: THURSDAY STRIKES WERE SEPARATE FROM OPERATION EPIC FURY

[Blake]

Hegseth is going to get canned. He's a moron and his whole department hates him.

But more importantly, Trump will punish Hegseth for embarrassing him and leading him into an historic loss.

I think Trump has a huge man crush on Hegs but he likes using up and spitting out scapegoats. I can see Ka$h getting the boot first.

[Blake]

This is getting sad. TSA will declare any deal a massive win so Trump should just take whatever is on the table now. Otherwise we're just wasting a $1,000,000,000 a day for nothing.

Black President was better. Hands down.

Especially Trump's undead hands.

Very few if any have been worse in just about every aspect of presidenting.

[ChumpDumper]

I think Trump has a huge man crush on Hegs but he likes using up and spitting out scapegoats. I can see Ka$h getting the boot first.

We'll have to wait until Trump runs out of women to fire.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ht3ruh74w6krts2fz4ir27pa/bafkreifu3ndu6fcyhw2l22tia3h6urjbh3n3kbeetamqqrtbw 3csprhdka

[Winehole23]

this is not what winning looks like


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wbsyxxtht2fli5uvix6l55d4/bafkreihoaflq4lifvgv3vbuzimx4vglr422ibumzxfu4qz3pd d732jyc4y

[Winehole23]

hundreds of thousands of people

https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167467

[Winehole23]

This worrying testimony is in line with respected food insecurity expert assessments (https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1159820/) which support estimates that an additional 144,000 women and girls are expected to face crisis-level hunger or worse in the coming months, bringing the total to approximately 639,000.

[Winehole23]

meeting off?

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-09-at-7.20.49%E2%80%AFPM.png

[Winehole23]

the former is war, the latter is murder on the high seas


The contrast between how the US military is enforcing the blockade on Iran (eg disabling fire against vessels) vs the boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific (ie destroying the vessels and killing the crews) is striking.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreih52a5exxwobcvfwsfkbet7ykrvwxe7genv7weuafmh3 6lugezm5u

[Winehole23]

not good

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreibgixwzxfbvbjwyx6qka27h5wr3zogltumlez76aib6c rvrp3u2ny

[ChumpDumper]

Let's keep giving Iran time to find more cards stuffed in the couch and shit.

[Winehole23]

* SAUDI ARAMCO CEO NASSER: ENERGY SUPPLY SHOCK THAT BEGAN IN Q1 IS THE LARGEST THE WORLD HAS EVER EXPERIENCED

* SAUDI ARAMCO CEO NASSER: IF HORMUZ DISRUPTION CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE WEEKS, NORMALIZATION WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL INTO 2027

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fuck Trump.

[Blake]

The Pentagon revealed the location of a U.S. Navy nuclear-armed submarine in a rare move a day after President Trump rejected the latest peace proposal from Iran.

The Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine arrived in Gibraltar, a British territory on Spain’s south coast, on Sunday, the U.S. Sixth Fleet said on Monday.....

....“The port visit demonstrates U.S. capability, flexibility and continuing commitment to its NATO allies,” the Sixth Fleet said in a press release. “Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are undetectable launch platforms for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, providing the U.S. with its most survivable leg of the nuclear triad.”

The Pentagon did not disclose the name of the submarine, one of the U.S. military’s most secretive weapons. In general, the locations of the U.S. nuclear-armed submarines are highly classified.....

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5872704-ohio-class-missile-submarine/

HEY HERE'S WHERE OUR SUPER SECRET CLASSIFIED NUCLEAR SUB IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A SHOT AT IT

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vocg5apjrlm7dfptvy6qbrfy/bafkreigivvkgsftl5vmn7dbhrok6dp564ueiwxoqqvuurjtfz cf5ye44x4

[Winehole23]

oh now it's the Kurds' fault

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:l3zb5xqyd7oycsq677dilqno/bafkreiaus3hrnfcsmniga3the2kovejerffpq3cokaqibqlnq qrbirluee

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vocg5apjrlm7dfptvy6qbrfy/bafkreigivvkgsftl5vmn7dbhrok6dp564ueiwxoqqvuurjtfz cf5ye44x4

Lucky us

[Winehole23]

https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fprod uction%2F4dbf4677-8126-4ddf-9e9a-5792c05e4cc7.png?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1



US inflation jumped to 3.8 per cent in April, its highest level in three years, as Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East continued to drive a sharp rise in fuel prices.The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index was up from year-on-year gains of 3.3 per cent in March and 2.4 per cent in February, before the conflict broke out. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected an increase to 3.7 per cent.

Tuesday’s inflation figure is the highest since 2023 as the country reeled from the energy shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.ft.com/content/ce609605-8f82-42d7-8364-5ca5fbfb02cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

This is still mostly an energy story. Energy prices were up 17.9 percent from a year earlier. Prices *other* than energy were up 2.8 percent.https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[ChumpDumper]

Everything is going in the right direction.

2054157629983703102

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2054157629983703102

Trump should just call it the Strait of America and declare victory.

[Blake]

Oh look. Very close to an end again before the deal is off and Trump threatens to be a not so mister nice guy any more. Again.

"US and Iran closing in on agreement aimed at ending war, source says....."

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/06/politics/trump-iran-war-talks-plan

[ChumpDumper]

Oh look. Very close to an end again before the deal is off and Trump threatens to be a not so mister nice guy any more. Again.

"US and Iran closing in on agreement aimed at ending war, source says....."

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/06/politics/trump-iran-war-talks-plan

Precise details of the plan couldn’t immediately be verified, but the source familiar said it would include discussion of a moratorium on uranium enrichment for a period of longer than 10 years. A previous US proposal had set it at 20 years.

The plan also requires Iran to ship its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country, but details were still being negotiated.

This is so JCPOA one has to ask why Trump didn't like the JCPOA.

[Winehole23]

Everything is going in the right direction.

2054157629983703102

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2054157629983703102

Trump should just call it the Strait of America and declare victory.Trump so colossally screwed this war up that surrendering to Iran is probably among the best available outcomes for the USA

[CosmicCowboy]

Brent up @ 108 WTI up 102.6

No end in sight. Oil companies are not going to "drill baby drill". They are going to reduce debt and buy back stock with the short term windfall.

[CosmicCowboy]

i'm pretty sure Trump is going to start blowing shit up again and then Iran will start blowing shit up again and oil is headed for 150. His escort try is not gonna work and could very well get an Arleigh Burke destroyer with 300 sailors on it hit.

[Blake]

BUT AT LEAST THEY WON'T HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS

[ChumpDumper]

BUT AT LEAST THEY WON'T HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONSBut according to Trump's best case scenario in 20 years they do.

That's why none of this ever made any sense. This isn't effectively any different from the JCPOA besides kicking the can a few years down the road.

Utter madness.

[Winehole23]

But according to Trump's best case scenario in 20 years they do.TRUMP PUTTING IRAN ON THE PATH TO NUKES

[ChumpDumper]

They're gonna want nukes more than ever after this. It's simply going to happen. There's no real evidence they would do anything beyond adopting MAD any more than Kim did, and Trump let him get the bomb.

[Winehole23]

L.

[ChumpDumper]

yes in a way, but iirc, George Tenet told Congress back in the early 2000's that NK already had the ability to hit West Coast USA with ICBMs

So Trump had even more incentive to keep Kim from getting the bomb

He did not.

[ChumpDumper]

AMERICA NOT FIRST. NOT EVEN A LITTLE BIT.

2054262313788768765

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2054262313788768765

[Blake]

But according to Trump's best case scenario in 20 years they do.

That's why none of this ever made any sense. This isn't effectively any different from the JCPOA besides kicking the can a few years down the road.

Utter madness.

*OBLITERATED!

[Blake]

The cost of the Iran war has risen to $29 billion, a top Pentagon official told lawmakers Tuesday, even as the U.S. says combat operations have largely ceased.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/12/pentagon-iran-war-money-00916656

Fun

[ChumpDumper]

Operation We're Running Out of Names, Guys.

2054276159781871847

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2054276159781871847

[Winehole23]

2054027191294341413

[Winehole23]

2053948679485009990

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiaili6cidbqoarcpfkruvpeacgluiw3mr64qggjvxroi 3dexumzwe

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiefflxbn2g4kchhl25ax2vfks3mbnjdb2z5uvy2fs4n7 vncy32wse

[Blake]

We're gonna be stuck with this war for a long time until Trump can figure out a way to declare that we won.

Just like Putin and Russia.

[Winehole23]

not financially sustainable?

US Navy begs for money


The U.S. Navy needs an infusion of cash in the next two months to prevent interruptions in how it conducts military training and other operations, the service’s highest ranking officer told lawmakers on Tuesday.

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle warned members of Congress at a budget hearing for the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense about the service’s impending budget crunch, amid the current rate of operations in the Middle East.
https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-navy/2026/05/13/us-navy-could-run-out-of-money-by-july-top-officer-warns/

[Blake]

not financially sustainable?

US Navy begs for money

https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-navy/2026/05/13/us-navy-could-run-out-of-money-by-july-top-officer-warns/

They'll get it.

[Winehole23]

looks like China already got a deal, judging from ships currently passing through the strait

will Trump US enforce the blockade on Chinese ships during his visit with Xi or will he sit in the cuck chair like a good boy?

[Winehole23]

hope we're not letting a demented and jet-lagged Donald Trump negotiate for the USA, who knows what else he'll give Xi

[Winehole23]

*IRAN ALLOWED 30 SHIPS TO PASS HORMUZ SINCE LAST NIGHT: STATE TV

[Winehole23]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine started in February of 2022



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiemoxn4qgixqnzwqnu2yo4kmfya6gz2nmvbasq3t2lmu vqb2l3txu

[Winehole23]

article from 2008



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:woguanxjwrm7yjapgt5avd2p/bafkreic6iuo4d4cia5423gu2cj3jvkvfhqudlnkae7tnxwosi o6idkp2iq

[ChumpDumper]

hope we're not letting a demented and jet-lagged Donald Trump negotiate for the USA, who knows what else he'll give Xi
There's nothing to negotiate. Donald has no cards.

[Blake]

looks like China already got a deal, judging from ships currently passing through the strait

will Trump US enforce the blockade on Chinese ships during his visit with Xi or will he sit in the cuck chair like a good boy?

Chinese playing the 4d chess. Trump just wants a gold Trump brand chess board but doesn't know how the pieces move.

[CosmicCowboy]

Brent 109.3 WTI 105.2

[ChumpDumper]

Weird that in no small part we have EVs and China to thank for the prices' not being even higher.

Still, another month of this and everyone is fucked.

As it is and if he doesn't die, Trump will have to give away a shitload of taxpayer money and ICE up the midterms to keep from being impeached again.

[CosmicCowboy]

Weird that in no small part we have EVs and China to thank for the prices' not being even higher.

Still, another month of this and everyone is fucked.

As it is and if he doesn't die, Trump will have to give away a shitload of taxpayer money and ICE up the midterms to keep from being impeached again.

China and US strategic reserves have helped slow the rise. If Trump starts bombing Iran again I expect Iran to start blowing up more oil infrastructure in the area. If the Houtis join in the party and start blocking the Bab el-Mandeb strait all bets are off on how high oil can go.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigxbx7zqshjeeqcuypmahw4q2jy7mupblzbt5p74ocs7 rswf2banm

[Winehole23]

President Trump is expected to decide within the next 24 hours on possible military action against Iran, citing Israeli assessments. A senior Israeli official said that Israel was preparing for a renewed conflict that could last from several days to several weeks.

“The resumption of the war is near, and we are preparing for several days to several weeks of fighting,” the official said.-Israeli Channel 12

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIcgN3PWcAAFG5b?format=jpg&name=medium

[Winehole23]

Israel censors the press, but large explosions at missile factories are hard to hide


A powerful explosion was heard in the Beit Shemesh (https://www.jpost.com/tags/beit-shemesh) area on Saturday, causing panic and a wave of rumors.

Many residents, alarmed by the loud blasts, initially believed it was a security incident or a military drill. However, a security official later clarified that the blast had been a controlled explosion at a private factory, as part of a planned test by the government defense company (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-896372) Tomer.

Despite these assurances, no notice had gone out to Beit Shemesh residents.

The company, which operates security facilities and testing areas in the Beit Shemesh area, specializes, among other things, in the development and testing of rocket engines for major defense and attack missiles, including Arrow missiles, air defense missiles, and artillery rockets.

Additionally, reports have circulated the theory that the explosion (https://www.jpost.com/tags/explosion) may have destroyed a stockpile of Arrow-3 (https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-894471) surface-to-air missiles.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-896420

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIeDtw5WIAAi20A?format=jpg&name=small

[Winehole23]

Yemen attacks UAE?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreicynapde5w7sznyggu4c3z3e5ratny7p5y3yiuxr2ski 3ilmrnwfm

[Winehole23]

the long weekend coming up?


Israel and the United States are carrying out their most intense preparations yet to renew attacks on Iran, possibly as soon as next week, two Middle Eastern officials told The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/us/politics/trump-iran.html) on Friday.


According to US officials cited by the newspaper, options for renewed operations in Iran include launching a more intense bombing campaign against military and infrastructure sites; conquering Iran’s key oil export hub of Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf; and putting commandos on the mainland to extract nuclear material buried under the rubble.


Extracting the highly enriched uranium would risk several casualties and require thousands of supporting forces to create a perimeter around an area of operation and likely engage with Iranian ground troops, the Times cited military officials as saying.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-iran-talks-stall-israel-and-us-prepping-to-renew-war-as-soon-as-next-week-report/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ynyiu76gknsnlnv72m3zfptk/bafkreifmliyik4mi7qiu7itijza6bj2oxihuy3eypu77hfuf7 4ndynknaehttps://www.reuters.com/investigations/how-trumps-crypto-venture-irans-top-exchange-tapped-into-same-industry-networks-2026-05-18/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nyjm4ylfid2a7mjm6varxuiq/bafkreign37xkubrvponaiodoc3y2v7qtp5je2pomh4slbi4nl 5atpprp2u

[ChumpDumper]

Two weeks, maybe?

https://x.com/Timodc/status/2056452150083866990

https://x.com/Timodc/status/2056452150083866990

[Blake]

Two weeks, maybe?

https://x.com/Timodc/status/2056452150083866990

https://x.com/Timodc/status/2056452150083866990

BUT DON'T CALL IT WAR.

I think I'm impressed that he got all of those names correct. Even if it was a high school intern that Googled it for him.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nzcjpprq6fwcdnwpc45e3gsd/bafkreic4sep6nn4wh4qgljifh4l3qzwqktcssnnsil7vwbiaa z7smxziwm



"we might not go back to normal until the 2030s. And so, $3 gas that was made with $60 oil might not be possible for about 6 or 7 years."

OLfpKOk43g0

[Winehole23]

“.. We spotted nine Polymarket accounts .. who made collectively $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. Military operations. ..

“.. Now, here is the crazy part. 98% win rates.”

www.mediaite.com/media/news/6... (https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/60-minutes-reveals-insider-trading-on-us-military-conflicts-is-exploding-luck-alone-cant-explain-the-numbers/)

[Winehole23]

Yemen attacks UAE?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreicynapde5w7sznyggu4c3z3e5ratny7p5y3yiuxr2ski 3ilmrnwfmscuttlebutt seems to be that the KSA attacked UAE to signal its displeasure

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2027/03/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-3.49.09%E2%80%AFPM.png

[Winehole23]

bond market jitters


Mortgage costs across Europe and North America have risen sharply as the economic impact of the Middle East war spills into housing markets, piling pressure on borrowers wanting to buy a new home or refinance.

The jump has come even though central banks have refrained from raising interest rates. Mortgage lenders are responding to increases in governments’ borrowing costs and betting that official rates will eventually need to rise to contain the threat of inflation.

In the US, the conflict has driven the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.36 per cent, above levels seen in September 2025, before the Federal Reserve began a cycle of three quarter-point rate cuts.



Brian Lewis, a real estate agent at US brokerage Compass, added that many would-be buyers were “making their peace” with the idea that they will not see interest rates on home loans return to the 2 per cent seen during the Covid-19 pandemic “anywhere in their lifetime”.

Investors and economists believe mortgage rates will rise further if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil was previously shipped, remains restricted.

That would eventually force central banks to raise rates to contain price pressures, placing further strain on prospective buyers.
“The risk of a miscalculation between Trump and the Iran leadership is rising,” said John Muellbauer, an economist at Oxford university, adding that an escalation “would drive us into serious stagflation”.
https://archive.is/kU2QD#selection-1949.0-1957.190

[Winehole23]

Not only are prices rising, but ILMA warns of an “imminent shortage” of low viscosity grade oils, including 0W-16, 0W-8 and 0W-20 — which is the most important grade of motor oil on the market today.


It’s the go-to motor oil for newer vehicles, accounting for roughly one-third of total passenger car motor oil demand last year, according to Petroleum Trends International.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/19/business/motor-oil-shortage-prices-iran

[Winehole23]

Trump blames allies, is scared of Iran



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7bl7qnpqw3e3llk4bzzvmyoa/bafkreictozv353vwmwq3rscg2cjy5lnmejldfo5ttv2l2lcbm ecmjuf2pm

[Winehole23]

TRUMP ON IRAN WAR: EVERYONE TELLS ME IT'S UNPOPULAR BUT I THINK IT'S VERY POPULAR

[Ball Buster]

Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.