Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

the regional war is still hot

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6b77l3ndzv2o7alhbdfc66zq/bafkreier7zgeqyixowwpfzpqch6xacizezrla6npe3xbn7rep 2bmz3ll34

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260812-houthis-renew-ballistic-missile-attacks-on-yemens-mocha-port-state-media/

[Winehole23]

notably absent from recent multilateral security talks in the Persian Gulf -- the USA


An Iraqi security delegation has arrived in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, to conduct high-level talks on regional security and shared strategic interests, according to the official Iraqi News Agency.


The visit comes a week after Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said that Baghdad will not allow its territory to be used for actions targeting other countries. Iran-aligned armed groups have repeatedly launched drone and missile attacks (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/23/iraq-pulled-into-iran-war-as-us-targets-iran-aligned-groups) targeting Saudi Arabia during the US-Israel war on Iran.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/8/13/iran-war-live-us-and-iran-exchange-opposing-claims-over-hormuz-control

[Winehole23]

US credibility to provide regional security appears to be completely shot in just six months

Saudis are already hedging their bets on Trump


Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye will establish a joint political and military mechanism under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/7/turkiye-saudi-arabi-pakistan-sign-joint-defence-agreement-whats-in-it), signed on August 7, according to the Turkish Defence Ministry.

At a weekly news briefing in Ankara, the ministry said the alliance would also deepen cooperation across defence industries.
These new frameworks are to bring together the defence ministers, foreign ministers and military chiefs of the three countries.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/8/13/iran-war-live-us-and-iran-exchange-opposing-claims-over-hormuz-control

[Winehole23]

Gaza-fication of South Lebanon continues


Israeli forces have carried out operations to blow up and burn homes in the southern Lebanese towns of Majdal Zoun and Al-Mansouri, as well as in neighbouring valleys, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reports.


NNA also reported that Israeli warplanes targeted the town of Al-Mansouri in two successive waves overnight, with the sound of explosions heard in Tyre.


The Israeli military issued a forced evacuation order (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/6/south-lebanon-people-speak-out-as-israel-launches-attacks-ceasefire) for the town of Al-Mansouri last week, its first displacement directive in weeks.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/8/13/iran-war-live-us-and-iran-exchange-opposing-claims-over-hormuz-control

[Winehole23]

scoreboard don't lie



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreib7vgfn4kukn2huhorgfceubsebakadvlieuvxeqjnvl w3jdsmeqq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigumxa5tx52imigimjeyabtb7c4yn5bdjnfieedvm6by hqg3rhhqq


EKWUEME: “.. They will manipulate oil prices down until the SPR runs dry. .. See the blue horizontal line at the bottom of the chart? That's the physical market. Everything else is paper.”


blue global demand line looks flat because the y-axis -- paper oil -- is so extreme


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:e7reu63qoymmljjwhi3awdta/bafkreicmkir24w6j7gokyqtk52tol6bzuko7a2l4d6kke6nh7 iv6i5gb5u

[Winehole23]

escalation trap


US CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper tells senior IDF officials the US may have no choice but to resume fighting and would need Israel for joint strikes - Israel's Channel 13

[Winehole23]

according to US officials, Israeli officials are lying about US officials


Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesperson for U.S. Central Command said that reports that Admiral Cooper said during his visit to Israel that he is pushing for renewed strikes and a resumption of the conflict against Iran is "an outright fabrication. It's not true at all".-JPost

[Winehole23]

seen in GA

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:sk6jryjhuavqchpa53jlcsyu/bafkreieiro7t5qixhdnf3rwke6hb24f5l4zzfyxxtkqto6vke at7ssorze

[Winehole23]

logistics prefigure lethality


Iranian strikes that heavily damaged Naval Support Activity Bahrain forced the United States Navy to relocate its principal regional logistics hub to Diego Garcia, transforming a comparatively short Gulf sustainment network into a vulnerable 2,200-mile maritime supply chain.

The wartime pivot preserved American carrier operations and the naval blockade of Iranian ports, but reported shortages aboard USS Abraham Lincoln demonstrate how destroying shore infrastructure can progressively degrade combat endurance without directly striking a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

By mid-August 2026, the Nimitz-class carrier had approached nine months on deployment, including more than 200 days without unrestricted liberty, while approximately 5,000 sailors and Marines sustained combat missions under reportedly exhausting operational and habitability conditions.



The carrier’s difficulties expose a central vulnerability in expeditionary warfare: nuclear propulsion provides exceptional ship endurance, yet aircraft sorties, escorts, weapons, aviation fuel, spare parts, food, sanitation supplies and crew resilience remain dependent upon functioning logistics architecture.https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-us-navy-gulf-supply-chain-uss-abraham-lincoln-diego-garcia/

[Winehole23]

Yemen’s ⁠Mocha port has suspended commercial and ⁠maritime operations ⁠after being hit by more than 25 missiles #in Houthi attacks over recent days, the port’s director has said, according to Reuters.

The attacks ⁠killed seven people and ⁠caused an ⁠estimated $16m ⁠in losses, the director told #a news conference.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/8/15/iran-war-live-trump-vows-to-make-hormuz-us-territory-pretty-soon

[Winehole23]

Oman hosts US forces including a USAF wing and the US gets naval support at Duqm


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreief43vlj5ewbkqulyk3zxvrloqp42rkureabo26tz2v5 m5ymxavvu

[Winehole23]

Oman is a US ally, has helped US diplomatic efforts and was strongly leaned on by the US to do the current negotiations with Iran

wtf isTrump talking about

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ezivw4suxbuzifdqyoqgvkce/bafkreibsa3gr3g3r73voydrww3bmicul2je67cd6rv6437i2n r7knmhyyi

[Winehole23]

btw, there are no US/Iran peace talks

pretending that a putative secret backchannel to the IRGC is a Delcy Rodriguez situation assumes the US public and the IRGC are fools

[Winehole23]

if there is a backchannel, looks like Iran is willing to burn it in public

if there is a backchannel Trump is burning it in public, for that matter


IRGC Spokesman to Tasnim: Trump’s claim of backchannel talks with the IRGC is a delusion stemming from defeat.

[Winehole23]

WSJ:

Iran’s hard-line leaders huddled in Tehran and came up with a different plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials. In their view the pact was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight.

Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with Iraq and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations and ramping up production of missiles and drones. The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HP54BBQawAAPdha?format=jpg&name=small


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HP54BBObsAA4XdM?format=jpg&name=small

[Winehole23]

2089024490785419354

[Winehole23]

Foreign Affairs warns of the energy shock


It would be tempting to conclude that the dangers of energy supply disruptions have been overstated, but such complacency would be misguided. The Hormuz crisis has so far led to only modest oil price spikes thanks to an unusual combination of favorable market conditions and years of investment in energy security measures. Before the war began, oil markets were oversupplied, inventories were relatively high, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had built pipelines around the strait, and governments and companies had amassed emergency and commercial stocks. In addition, China helped stabilize the global oil balance by reducing its imports, drawing on its immense capacity to curb how much oil it buys for stocks, holds in inventory, refines for export, and consumes domestically.

These conditions may not endure. If the conflict enters a new phase of intense fighting that threatens to spill across borders and continues to block the strait, oil markets, now stressed by shortages of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, could see crude oil prices surge higher. But even if hostilities in the region de-escalate, a persistent risk to traffic through the strait will likely remain, with passage either outright controlled by Iran or, at the very least, subject to Iranian disruption at any time. A more optimistic scenario in the next several months seems a chimera, barring major and unlikely change in Tehran….

The relatively modest movement in global benchmark prices concealed a strikingly uneven distribution of pain, as countries in Asia and Europe endured high prices, shortages, rationing, fiscal strain, and forced reductions in consumption, while the United States and China demonstrated newfound levels of insulation and influence. Delayed effects also loom on the horizon. Because of the crunch in refining, diesel and other crude products are priced much higher than they normally would be at current headline oil prices. And the shock is making it harder and more costly for Europe to replenish its natural gas inventories, leaving the continent with lower-than-usual storage levels and more vulnerable to energy and geopolitical coercion in the coming winter.

In preparing for these scenarios, as well as new crises in the more distant future, the world should not take solace in the relatively benign outcome of the last five months for energy markets. The cushions that helped the world manage those months are now more threadbare: inventories have been depleted, demand is recovering, alternative routes are becoming more vulnerable, and infrastructure continues to come under fire and, in some cases, will take years to repair. A second phase of the Hormuz crisis could prove substantially more damaging than the first.
https://archive.ph/GMrB5#selection-1117.1-1121.44

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HP3CdtxWoAANsG5?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Blake]

2089024490785419354

WE'LL JUST BOMB THE SHIT OUT OF THEM

* as soon as we make more bombs

[velik_m]

WE'LL JUST BOMB THE SHIT OUT OF THEM

* as soon as we make more bombs

By "them" you are of course talking about Oman?

Trump threatens to ‘bomb’ Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ as U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html)

[Blake]

By "them" you are of course talking about Oman?

Trump threatens to ‘bomb’ Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ as U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html)

Yeah was referring to his post about Oman which he will now again direct at Iran for the umpteenth obliterated time.

[Blake]

Iran is offering its citizens up to $60,000 to kill or capture American service members, as its army chief vows that U.S. bases in the Middle East will not be allowed to return to their prewar state.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-08-17/iran-bounty-us-troops-22579432.html
Source - Stars and Stripes

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicqndpjocsv6d3pgeflurv2vh23hqrlvef5odym2hlw6 u5vqn2mna

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:n3chvllxyxr4vsijmnrzorzx/bafkreigpbcioxlu3rekvtlph4fye3bhesgvpqtddc2zzcfbrr nqamjzru4

[Winehole23]

that's some fine negotiating, Jared


* SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: IRAN HAS DECIDED TO SHIFT ITS POLICY FROM DEFENSIVE TO A 'FULLY OFFENSIVE' ONE

* IRAN HAS SET A DEADLINE OF A FEW WEEKS FOR FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF MOU BY U.S. - SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:n3chvllxyxr4vsijmnrzorzx/bafkreigpbcioxlu3rekvtlph4fye3bhesgvpqtddc2zzcfbrr nqamjzru4

Little rocket man might have more rockets than us at this point

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreiew5kodfa4gtcjav6rbmkqu6qanmiopfoiubtbav2yi5 x74vi6ppe

[Winehole23]

hmm..


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o4h5r2albulagzxvhp634tof/bafkreihbjhfwwhr5obp5q7uruuygfxy5nw2qeqzkrckvdesj3 mxnswkvc4

[Blake]

" [insert country here] will not tolerate these actions" is the catch phrase of this war

[Winehole23]

" [insert country here] will not tolerate these actions" is the catch phrase of this wardoesn't seem to be shrinking yet, despite Trump's apparently shrinking aggression

[Winehole23]

Trump lost the operational tempo, Iran can ramp it up to create trouble for Trump

The more Trump sits on the sideline, the more chance for Iran to prepare for more war

Logistically, Iran already wrecked us, tbh.

[Winehole23]

"strategic retreat"

looks very similar to what we've been doing since 2018



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreiczyroycl4xcvf7opdbkr2j4oz27dp3ghd4pfing36gy yu7jgyneu

[Blake]

"strategic retreat"

looks very similar to what we've been doing since 2018

Jesus, everyone knows it's hot air at this point. He needs to just shut the fuck up and get us the fuck out

[Winehole23]

Jesus, everyone knows it's hot air at this point. He needs to just shut the fuck up and get us the fuck outhe'll do neither, most likely

handing his mess to the Dems in 2029 so the eventual withdrawal can be blamed on them seems most likely

Trump likes to recycle ideas, he did similar in 2020 -- surrendered to the Taliban but postponed the withdrawal until 2021 so Biden would catch the loss

[velik_m]

Pentagon weighing smaller U.S. military presence in Gulf once Iran war ends

The Pentagon is evaluating its military footprint in the Middle East in an early sign of the Iran war’s potential to transform the U.S. presence in the region, according to eight people, including officials and others familiar with the matter.

One of the key areas the Defense Department is assessing is whether to pull back troops from the Persian Gulf, where America’s large overseas military bases have been battered by months of Iranian strikes, two people familiar with the ongoing analysis said.

The damage to these facilities has prompted a once-in-a-generation chance for the Pentagon to reconsider its presence in the region. The Defense Department has already signaled that it might not rebuild its bases as they were before the conflict.

...

More hawkish voices in Washington have sought to influence the Pentagon’s planning by proposing the movement of U.S. troops in the region to Israel. A report by the pro-Israel group Jewish Institute for National Security of America in March called for more U.S. military assets to be moved to Israel’s Ovda Airbase.

This winter, in the run-up to Operation Epic Fury, Washington sent F-22 Raptor fighter jets to the base in a sign of deepening U.S.-Israel military relations.
There is disagreement within the Trump administration over that recommendation given concerns that an expanded U.S. presence there could pose a counterintelligence vulnerability amid the Pentagon’s growing concern about Israeli espionage.

Also, the office of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby has launched a public review of America’s military presence in NATO, after the Trump administration announced it was pulling thousands of troops out of Germany and Poland. The study is set to conclude in December.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/18/pentagon-evaluating-smaller-us-military-presence-persian-gulf-after-iran-war/

[CosmicCowboy]

Jesus, everyone knows it's hot air at this point. He needs to just shut the fuck up and get us the fuck out

Agree

[Winehole23]

it's a shame this country is being led by a midwit, degenerate crook

[Blake]

it's a shame this country is being led by a midwit, degenerate crook

It's pathetic everyone knew at the voting booth knew this and didn't care.

[Winehole23]

It's pathetic everyone knew at the voting booth knew this and didn't care.they *liked it*

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreih4pk22myynvay6vqntsiqbosyphuniixut7vc5x3xmw 2ki5tr2oa

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:cphgfu544qoxz4mzia2iqmyz/bafkreihiuab5hhg235shd3xcorebupv5jr4wlslpanfytdaab 5ggaztxlq

[Winehole23]

in a nontrivial sense, Trump and Hegseth lost the war with Iran on day one


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/bafkreihgvtycmtkokkxrl2vjvrdwwyo6jtny5fibjquwdprpz fbmodgsay

[Winehole23]

Iran rattles the saber

This is Iran's National Security Adviser Moshen Rezaee


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreigs22zecx5hd6ik6bvgfy4qnf5rw5tny6zxv7o6rlncq gqqu3fs54

[Winehole23]

lost to Iran in record time but not before killing 18 troops and hurting hundreds


The number of U.S. troops wounded in the Iran war (https://taskandpurpose.com/news/iran-war-timeline/) passed 750 this week, as the Department of Defense updated its casualty report. Nearly half of those were service members wounded since fighting restarted last month.


The Department of Defense’s casualty database (https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/conflictCasualties/oo/byCategory) was updated this week, showing dozens more troops wounded. The latest figure, as of Friday, Aug. 21, shows 341 service members listed as wounded in action since July 7.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-troops-more-than-750-wounded-iran/

[Winehole23]

neocon poobah Robert Kagan throws shade


For years, Iran confronted a balance of power in the Middle East that tilted against it. The region was dominated by a hostile American superpower, a nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant local actors—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—that were strategically and economically aligned with the United States.


Today finds Iran in entirely new circumstances. It has gone head-to-head with the superpower and Israel, withstood a pounding from their most advanced weapons, and more than survived. As a result, Iran has, with American help, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The dominant power in the region going forward will be Iran, not the U.S. or Israel. Neighboring countries are already making their adjustments to this new reality. More distant powers will too. For years, the world has been dealing with an Iran constrained. It will now discover what Iran unleashed looks like.


Iran doesn’t need a deal with the United States. The common assumption that a weak and impoverished Iran would eventually have to make some accommodation to American power, open the Strait of Hormuz, and set about tending to its badly damaged economy has proved mistaken. The Islamic Republic has rarely appeared weaker or more vulnerable than it has over the past two years. Last February, President Trump renewed his “maximum pressure” campaign of international sanctions, which severely damaged Iran’s already-weak economy and cut billions of dollars in state revenues. Israel and the United States then launched the 12-day war that June to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. The war significantly damaged Iran’s program and revealed just how vulnerable the country was to Israeli and American strikes. Then, in February, the United States and Israel launched the most recent war with the killing of the regime’s supreme leader and the great majority of its senior officials, followed by more than five weeks of unremitting attacks on Iranian military capabilities.



Yet through all of this, the regime has survived and made no concessions. On the contrary, Iran exposed America’s Achilles’ heel: the vulnerability of Iran’s neighbors. A major turning point came in mid-March, when Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, and Iran retaliated against Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest liquefied-natural-gas facility. The attack showed that although Iran obviously could not defeat the United States in an air war, Iranian missiles and drones could inflict enough damage on the oil-and-gas infrastructure of the Gulf to plunge the world into a prolonged economic crisis. The Gulf States understood this immediately, and so did Trump. He halted attacks on Iranian energy targets, ordered a reluctant Israel to do the same, and soon brought the larger campaign to a stop without extracting a single Iranian concession. Ever since, and despite many threats, Trump has not once ordered another strike against Iranian energy infrastructure.


This alone was enough to alter the balance of leverage between Iran and the United States. From April through last month, Trump repeatedly threatened to launch another massive attack against Iran. Each time, Iran threatened retaliation, Gulf States warned of the consequences, and Trump backed off. By his third or fourth bluff, Tehran had reason to conclude that the United States was no longer prepared to follow Iran up the ladder of escalation. Trump made this clear when he noted in mid-June that continuing the war would lead to “economic catastrophe,” possibly even a “depression,” and that he did not want to become President Herbert Hoover. Ever since, Trump has been trying, with notable desperation, to end the conflict.
https://archive.is/7cDTa#selection-693.0-723.731

[Winehole23]

American actions have made plain that Washington fears escalation more than Iran does—not just for now, but for the future. This places limits on what the United States can do even at low levels of conflict. Because any military action against Iran risks stepping onto an escalation ladder that the U.S. does not want to ascend, even tit-for-tat strikes seem no longer to be part of American strategy. The president has reportedly told his advisers that he does not want to order more strikes. The Iranians have struck at several UAE ships this month and even fired ballistic missiles at the country, but the United States has not responded since July—a fact undoubtedly noted by the UAE and Iran’s other neighbors.

[Winehole23]

The regional adjustment has begun (https://archive.is/o/7cDTa/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gulf-states-accept-a-new-normal-in-hormuz-iran-is-in-control-6db8908d). Gulf rulers who once counted on an American security guarantee must now make their peace with the power that proved capable of defeating their protector. Saudi Arabia’s rejection of the U.S.- and Israel-backed Abraham Accords in favor of a strategic compact with Pakistan and Turkey hints at the shape of the future. The Abraham Accords represented the consolidation of Israeli power and influence in the region and the further containment of Iran. The Mecca pact is something else entirely. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey regards Iran as a major threat; Pakistan, like Iran, has close relations with China; Israel regards Turkey as a regional threat second only to Iran. Instead of an American-Israeli order, this will be an alignment less implacably hostile to Iran, less friendly to Israel, and more independent of the United States. The signatories also have nuclear weapons in common: Pakistan has them, and the Turks and Saudis want them.

[Winehole23]

Trump 2.0 can be relied on at all times to lie profusely


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreicomju75uinngaeyjtkchlhgdqyuny7likcnuunwlnjj 2ypn6k5iy

[Winehole23]

Johnston’s latest 7-day average of confirmed transits is about 4 million barrels a day, though he expects that to be raised to 5 million to 6 million as ships that made dark crossings turn their transponders back on after they clear the strait and their voyages can be reconstructed

[Winehole23]

Buffalo airport is out of jet fuel


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:bob6347sjpbjn5ds76lopu63/bafkreidd6kkztogi5lnp3jqy24dta5sxuxfjy5tojs4fmmgax vp6flufwm


Last night around 10:30, the FAA issued a Notice to Airmen stating that Buffalo Niagara International Airport had no fuel. None. Planes could land, planes could leave if they had gas in the tank, but if you needed to fill up in Buffalo, you were out of luck. Airlines started telling pilots to carry enough fuel to get to Buffalo AND to their next stop, which is a thing you normally hear about airports in countries mid-collapse, not a five-million-passenger American hub an hour from Toronto.https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/an-american-international-airport

[Winehole23]

SAUDI ARABIA'S NATIONAL SHIPPING COMPANY CONFIRMS ONE OF ITS VESSELS 'AMZAN' HAS BEEN ATTACKED IN RED SEA - STATEMENT

[Winehole23]

Reuters/Ipsos has Trump at 33% with support for the war at 31%. Sixty nine percent of Republicans now support the war, down from 77% when it began.reut.rs/4xc4Q0u (https://reut.rs/4xc4Q0u)

[Winehole23]

quagmire talk


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. is not ruling out using military force against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz or anywhere else. - Reuters

[SnakeBoy]

Buffalo airport is out of jet fuel



https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/an-american-international-airport

The Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority (NFTA) confirmed that the issue was not a fuel shortage but a faulty circuit board in the airport’s fuel farm system.

lol whinehole

[Winehole23]

thanks for the topical follow-up

how do you feel about Trump losing to Iran?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreielditgtz75htkkvi2bxjkqondtoyo2sthubah4zgzd7 4tvfvme5q

[Winehole23]

Obama never attacked Iran

Trump did -- not skilled!



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ki3z7dyiz3gc7gih42mpmpys/bafkreiem3ioxnyb7kg2zmvqsa4dbkmxh6kyy4kth354xbtcer mx4vleooy

[Winehole23]

Trump was a stupid asshole for attacking Iran


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:oqexhdqbizq24v6ikjhhig2h/bafkreibgqxa25hf57jnr6l2fjjfjfanxdpygkz5dqoy5kbld5 zpovn6jwywww.wsj.com/politics/nat... (https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-warnings-9d7f289a?mod=hp_lead_pos2)

[Winehole23]

Farmers in America’s Corn Belt say they are facing their worst crisis in 40 years, as an explosion in diesel and fertiliser costs triggered by Donald Trump’s Iran war pushes grain producers to the brink.

The growing strains are the latest sign of how the conflict in the Middle East, now in its sixth month, is reverberating through the US’s heartland ahead of crucial midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

“Inputs are way out of whack,” said Matt Bailey, who grows corn and soyabeans in eastern Nebraska. He said 11-52-0, a phosphorus-rich fertiliser used at planting time that was priced at $470 a ton 10 years ago, now costs more than $900. “Where do you start with that? How do you budget for that?”

The huge uptick in prices for fuel and crop nutrients since the US launched its attack on Iran in February came with American farmers already struggling after years of low grain prices and falling incomes.https://www.ft.com/content/acb64e29-a3ce-4282-82b0-6b7b5dd4f63e

[Winehole23]

Trump has TACO'd big time on China before and he's much weaker today than Liberation Day



https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot-2026-08-25-at-6.59.30%E2%80%AFPM.png


Any serious increase in US sanctions on China, which buys 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, would risk exploding the relationship only a month before presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington.

The summit is seen as crucial to the world economy, with the leaders expected to discuss extending a one-year truce in their trade war that they agreed in October and which was cemented by a cordial visit to Beijing by Trump in May.

“China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday in response to questions about US secondary sanctions on Iran.

“China has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or the authorisation of the UN Security Council,” they said…

While China’s large state-owned refiners largely comply with sanctions on Iranian crude, Beijing allows private sector refiners known as “teapots” to import and process oil from the country….

China has set up an increasingly strident anti-sanctions regime that includes countermeasures against foreign individuals and organisations that assist with foreign restrictions on Chinese companies and supply chains.

Any attempt by the US to aggressively expand a secondary sanctions regime on Iran to Chinese companies would risk retaliation from Beijing, which last year showed that it could bring American manufacturing to a standstill through its control of critical minerals essential to high-tech production.

“We have to wait and see whether this is just bluffing or [the US is] seriously thinking about putting secondary sanctions on China,” said Wang Dong, a senior scholar at Peking University.
https://www.ft.com/content/aa7ba671-8175-4b53-b6a5-28803a851493?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

boiled down, sanctions and secondary sanctions will fail because Trump doesn't have the stomach to take on China, Russia, India, Turkey, Pakistan and the UAE all at once

also, Trump lacks patience and will probably end up in a hot war again either to distract from something else or to punish Iran

[Winehole23]

Trump's Iran sanctions regime is a reversion to the status quo ante (in which sanctions did not work) and are window dressing for having lost the war

[Winehole23]

Russia tells Trump to fuck off, China threatens retaliation if Trump accelerates economic pressure

Looks like Operation Economic Outcast is dead on the starting line

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nyjm4ylfid2a7mjm6varxuiq/bafkreiamdvsvozcehjlpexmttqoy2l5d3nt57uqvcspmdp5tj 6nvj7txla

[ChumpDumper]

Is this the job of the CIA director? I guess Rubio or Kushner (CROFL) didn't want the embarrassment.

[Blake]

Lol "Operation Economic Outcast"

I don't think Trump understands who the outcast will end up being.

[Winehole23]

war prizes


“Our national security interests may require the United States military to seize vessels or cargo supporting the enemy during military conflict,” Reitz said in a statement. “If that happens, our federal courts must be ready to adjudicate the disposition of these captured vessels and cargo.”

Ship owners and Iranian terrorism victims are among the potential litigants expected to challenge the prize court’s use, maritime lawyers and former prosecutors said. DOJ, the US Navy, and the judiciary would also face operational hurdles carrying out a court process with which they have zero experience.

“This really is a historical area of law that is not tested in modern times,” said Allison Luzwick, a Holland & Knight attorney specializing in the maritime industry. “Great strides have been made in international law and the law of war since the late 1800s, and all of that is going to come into play when we’re actually looking at proceedings involving a vessel that is potentially seized under Prize Act authority.”

Once a regular feature of 18th and 19th century naval combat, prize courts have gone largely unused since the Spanish-American War of 1898 and lain entirely dormant since World War II.news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/... (https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/us-aims-to-revive-civil-war-era-court-to-claim-iran-oil-as-prize)

[Winehole23]

open to legal challenges and, turnabout is fair play


“It helps offset the price of the war,” said Eugene Kontorovich, an international law professor at George Mason’s Antonin Scalia School of Law. “It also shows Iran that America is really treating this as a serious international blockade and is willing to use all the tools at its disposal.”

If established, however, the approach would invite legal challenges as to whether the US is engaged in hostilities that give rise to the Prize Act and whether the lack of congressional authorization of the conflict renders captures unlawful.

Jill Goldenziel, a law professor who trains US military leaders at the National Defense University, warned of potential blowback in an April Forbes column (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillgoldenziel/2026/04/25/us-blockade-on-iran-may-bring-back-prize-and-booty/).

Although it would “send a strong message to non-sanctioned, neutral merchant ships bound for Iranian ports not to violate the U.S. blockade,” Goldenziel wrote, it “could also open the door for China to apply prize law against the United States — a dangerous proposition for U.S. and neutral merchants in any war with China.”

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreihjr4oi2wdi3e52sjmogezebag4c47bugtyl24dtmvki l2cwfvx3u

[Winehole23]

"the wolf is really dead this time"


U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has released a new video update from Adm. Brad Cooper, announcing that U.S. forces have cleared an international shipping channel of mines and declared the Strait of Hormuz open.

[Winehole23]

(CENTCOM has declared the strait open five times this month)

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ux34natbhxube3xgdu3rhf45/bafkreihk4fui7pbuv36gllmzt65s6l7sbwk776kehchqekwjt k4g3ujw24

[Winehole23]

American Suez Crisis

The emperor has no clothes


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7kcpkznpgxixp3pusonioj47/bafkreicq53snxkgledikpdrabuftoksb37lra26i3xaaa54hd 4arlbibhi

[Winehole23]

Amwaj is UK based


The story: Iran and Oman have agreed on a phased framework to resume commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the plan is implemented, it would entail the establishment of a temporary maritime corridor alongside joint mine-clearing, followed by talks on a permanent route. In parallel, a flurry of diplomatic activity suggests an uptick in efforts to revive the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Iran and the US back in June.


The coverage: Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi visited Tehran on Aug. 25 for talks with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.




The two sides announced (https://t.me/s_a_araghchi/12152) a “phased framework” aimed at restoring safe navigation through Hormuz while protecting the sovereign rights of the two coastal states.
The framework envisages a temporary joint maritime corridor and a joint project to clear mines. Technical talks are to continue, with other Gulf littoral states also to be consulted.
Importantly, Albusaidi said the arrangements were being pursued “as per article 5” of the Iran-US deal, which is formally known as the Islamabad M (https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/document-a-historic-iran-us-memorandum-of-understanding)O (https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/document-a-historic-iran-us-memorandum-of-understanding)U (https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/document-a-historic-iran-us-memorandum-of-understanding).

https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/iran-oman-advance-on-hormuz-as-islamabad-mou-regains-attention

[Winehole23]

Put yourself into the place of oil shippers

If your plane had a 2% chance of being shot down, would you fly?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiao4mfmzb566mjsdqrta4ugtxadwf5a7uho33adq67at snvs22rfe

[Winehole23]

let alone megatankers laden with ~2 million bbl of oil

[Winehole23]

Put yourself into the place of oil shippers

If your plane had a 2% chance of being shot down, would you fly?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiao4mfmzb566mjsdqrta4ugtxadwf5a7uho33adq67at snvs22rfe

[Winehole23]

in addition to losing to Iran at record speed, it sounds like Trump and Hegseth left the cupboard bare for deterrence purposes

we are ruled by stupid assholes


The U.S. has rushed so many munitions to the Middle East to fight Iran (https://www.wsj.com/topics/place/iran) that military planners are concerned the loss of firepower is diminishing America’s ability to defend against potential threats from China and Russia, said U.S. officials.


The cuts have been so deep that the U.S. inventories in Europe of PAC-3 Patriot air defense interceptors and Atacms surface-to-surface missiles are deemed to be “beyond critical,” some of the officials said.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/drain-on-u-s-munitions-from-iran-war-raises-fears-over-ability-to-deter-china-russia-c7d4512d

[Winehole23]

“Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland, according to people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief,” the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/30/military-leaders-warn-hegseth-against-extending-iran-war-operations/) reports.

”The warnings — detailed for Hegseth by the heads of the Army, Navy and Air Force and the four-star commanders overseeing U.S. operations throughout Europe, Asia and Latin America — appear in the Aug. 14 edition of the Secretary of Defense Orders Book.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/30/military-leaders-warn-hegseth-against-extending-iran-war-operations/
​https://archive.ph/Qp8ai

[Winehole23]

At this point, however, funding a war with no clear endgame is the main challenge. A former military officer now working for a navy contracting company, who has been briefed on the shortfalls, said: “They’re fucked. They shot all their weapons; they trashed all their ships; they ran out of their money.”

[Winehole23]

When the Trump administration asked Congress for $67bn in emergency funds for the defense department, it didn’t break down how much would be for the navy. The House passed a $1.15tn defense bill (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/22/us-house-defense-bill-iran-war) in July and a separate budget authorization that would provide $73bn for the war in Iran, but it’s unlikely either will become law.



Ullman noted that during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, funding was more forthcoming from Congress because those conflicts were authorized by a resolution. “There is no authorization to use force in this case. Is Congress obliged to pay for a conflict it did not authorize?” he said.
ttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/27/trump-iran-war-navy-budgetttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/27/trump-iran-war-navy-budget

[Winehole23]

The top military officials at European Command and Southern Command each cautioned Hegseth that lending their ships and surveillance aircraft to Central Command has degraded their ability to fulfill homeland-defense obligations, said those familiar with the assessment.

Adm. Samuel Paparo, the chief of Pacific Command, disagreed with the level of support he was ordered to continually provide, including an aircraft carrier strike group and naval destroyers, those familiar with the assessment said.

A spokesperson for European Command declined to comment. Spokespeople for Southern Command and Pacific Command did not respond to requests for comment.

Adm. Daryl Caudle, the chief of Naval Operations, provided Hegseth with the dimmest picture, saying in the SDOB that the Navy cannot sustain its current level of support for the Iran conflict because there is no anticipated end date, those familiar with the assessment said.

The Navy has shouldered an extraordinary burden. It has been asked to supply dozens of vessels for the Iran campaign — first to take part in the U.S. assault and defend against Iranian counterattacks and, for several months since, to enforce Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports as he attempts to force-open the Strait of Hormuz. Deployments for some vessels and crews have been extended (https://archive.ph/o/Qp8ai/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/13/poor-conditions-are-reported-uss-abraham-lincoln-democrats-demand-answers/) by months.

Caudle conveyed to Hegseth that barely one-fourth of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, a sharp decline from prewar levels, said those familiar with the assessment.

More broadly, the document says that the impact on ship maintenance, if demands imposed by the Iran operation continue unchanged, jeopardizes the fleet’s availability should other conflicts arise, people familiar with the assessment said.

[Winehole23]

The recent “non-concurs” from some uniformed leaders mark the latest warning from military leaders about the war.

As The Post and others reported previously, Caine advised the White House before hostilities began that the U.S. lacked sufficient munitions — and support from allies — to conduct an extended large-scale campaign.

More recently, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of European Command, privately warned the Pentagon (https://archive.ph/o/Qp8ai/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/01/general-warns-pentagon-he-lacks-sufficient-forces-protect-israel/) that he lacked adequate naval forces to shield Israel and the U.S. homeland from missile attacks, as The Post reported this month.

In the Pacific, key U.S. allies have raised alarm (https://archive.ph/o/Qp8ai/https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/26/us-weapons-shortage-iran-war-alarms-allies-confronting-china/) that the Pentagon’s depletion of missiles and air defense interceptors leave them vulnerable to China. The Navy’s only dedicated aircraft carrier in the Pacific, a linchpin of the military’s plan to deter Beijing, was sent to the Middle East to relieve another carrier that has been deployed for more than 300 days.

https://archive.ph/Qp8ai#selection-953.0-995.316

[Winehole23]

by putting all the eggs into the lethality basket -- wasting US arms and materiel against Iran while ignoring maintenance, replenishment, rotation, training -- Trump and Hegseth are making the US weaker and endangering security globally

[Winehole23]

"complete US control" apparently looks like this


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3bqvbzpwgi5mqeqs6qlym26j/bafkreifaqah4vtotc75gedzz6ufh2gfv3su3tot2i35zn7lej ah6xd2f5a

[Winehole23]

U.S. official: "Earlier today U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into Strait of Hormuz"-Axios

[Winehole23]

did whoever posted this watch "300" all the way through?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ukmlzdshn6edhlyy7puj4dv2/bafkreigitbkldjsrcsxp5nlld4nc7hwaiaglopxw3du67spxy ll5ggzrxu

[ChumpDumper]

lol so much wrong with that AI slop.

Independent DMX7 approves.

[Winehole23]

troops treated like CFUs -- cannon fodder units

caring about US troops, protecting them and preserving their readiness, isn't woke bullshit. it's just common sense.


What is striking is not simply the physical damage, but the continuing uncertainty six months later surrounding the operational status and future of one of America’s most important naval headquarters — and importantly, the status of the personnel and their families.
https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2026/08/28/the-devastation-of-nsa-bahrain-is-a-national-security-warning/

[Winehole23]

same story, second verse


Elements of the 82nd Airborne Division currently deployed to the Middle East will remain in the region into next year due to “operational requirements,” the Army announced.


The extended deployment was announced by division commander Maj. Gen. Brandon R. Tegtmeier in a letter to military families, thanking them for their support of the deployed troops. Task & Purpose reviewed the letter, dated Aug. 30 and shared to social media including the Army’s unofficial subreddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/army/comments/1w2m1ao/82nd_airborne_announces_tour_extensions_for/). The Army confirmed the authenticity of the letter. The division’s headquarters as well as members of artillery units, the sustainment brigade and air defense troops will be in the region for a full year, while paratroopers and the division’s combat aviation brigade have had their tours extended for up to a year.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/82nd-airborne-deployment-extended-iran/

[Winehole23]

wasn't this whole thing supposed to last just a few weeks?

"just a little excursion"

[Winehole23]

US officials say Iran has launched ballistic missiles at a US airbase in Jordan in retaliation for US attacks on Iran near the Strait of Hormuz just hours ago.

This was the first known US strike in Iran since late-July and the IRGC has vowed to retaliate.

[Winehole23]

sourcing is sketchy, Iranian and unnamed Israeli sources


Initial reports indicate that short-range cruise missiles were launched against US Navy vessels off the coast of Oman in the Arabian Sea.

[Winehole23]

"Nearly all incoming missiles have been intercepted at this point." - A U.S. source said.-Fox News

[velik_m]

Trump threatens to blow up Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub as hostilities escalate once again

U.S. President Donald Trump extended his military threats against Iran to Kharg Island, the country’s main oil export terminal, saying it’s “going to be blown to smithereens!”

The comments came after the U.S. and Iran traded attacks over the weekend, as hostilities flared anew between the two countries.

American forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday after the military said Revolutionary Guard forces were preparing rockets carrying sea mines for launch into the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command confirmed to MS NOW.

“Earlier today U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, said in a statement.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/30/us-iran-strikes-strait-hormuz.html

Economic D-Day is going smoothly.

[Winehole23]

how many backers has the US's "with us or against us" approach collected so far?

[Winehole23]

World Mostly Shrugs Off Bessent’s ‘D-Day’ Iran Sanctions Threat

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent began the week vowing an “economic onslaught” against Iran and its trading partners in a fresh bid to end the war. By the week’s end, countries with ties to Tehran had so far shrugged off the threat and analysts were left underwhelmed by the US actions.

China, which buys 90% of Iran’s oil, issued a defiant warning (https://archive.is/o/RJMv4/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-25/xi-signals-defiance-as-us-threatens-sanctions-for-iran-support) to Washington rather than back down. Iranian bank branches remained open in Dubai. At one Bank Melli branch in Abu Dhabi, staff were busy typing away and one employee explained that they were still open for business.

Commercial flights also continued between Iran and Turkey as well as Iran and the United Arab Emirates, which had promised last week to sever all trade and financial transactions with Tehran. Routes flying to Thailand and Azerbaijan, as well as multiple destinations in both Russia and China, remained unaffected.

As the week came to a close, the US announced plans to sanction the UAE-based branches of Egypt’s Banque Misr. That fell well below expectations after Bessent’s warning that the world would see “a major announcement of a financial institution being sanctioned by the end of this week.”
https://archive.is/RJMv4#selection-1615.0-1615.63

[Winehole23]

“You can’t unleash meaningful economic warfare on Iran while ignoring the one country that absorbs 90% of its oil exports,” said Leland Miller, the CEO of China Beige Book (https://archive.is/o/RJMv4/https://www.chinabeigebook.com/) data platform and a commissioner on the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which advises the US Congress.

[Winehole23]

2026 is on track to be the most expensive year for diesel in U.S. history. the YTD average sits at $4.85/gal per GasBuddy data, with the current average at $5.58. by late September, 2026 will likely surpass 2022's full-year average

[Winehole23]

enemy gets a vote


Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a clear public warning to the U.S. that any damage inflicted on Iran’s power infrastructure will be met with decisive retaliation. Specifically, IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari threatened the “complete and utter annihilation” of U.S. and Israeli facilities. The ‘hidden’ $30 billion Stargate AI datacenter (https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/openai-and-oracle-ink-deal-to-build-massive-stargate-data-center-total-project-will-power-2-million-ai-chips-stargate-partner-softbank-not-involved-in-the-project) in Abu Dhabi was singled out as a juicy target for Iranian destruction later in the video. The threats come on the heels of Iran reportedly delivering enough damage via rocket strikes to some Amazon AWS data centers that they have shut down (https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/iranian-missile-blitz-takes-down-aws-data-centers-in-bahrain-and-dubai-amazon-declares-hard-down-status-for-multiple-zones).https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/iran-threatens-complete-and-utter-annihilation-of-openais-usd30b-stargate-ai-data-center-in-abu-dhabi-regime-posts-video-with-satellite-imagery-of-chatgpt-makers-premier-1gw-data-center

[Winehole23]

lol so much wrong with that AI slop.

Independent DMX7 approves.


Totally on brand really: make bold claims against the Persians, then get utterly wrecked.

The difference - and I can't believe I'm about to say something nice about the Spartans - is the Spartans had the good sense to keep with their allies.https://bsky.app/profile/bretdevereaux.bsky.social/post/3mug5zkjqpc2h

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihi3ic6243zluqh2jqizwblqzhy3ybs7rihsjqcjujkf b7d2cgdi4

[Winehole23]

HAPAG-LLOYD CEO: FAIR TO BELIEVE THAT STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL STAY BLOCKED FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE

[Winehole23]

Diesel inventories near 20-year low.

“.. The decline is all the more striking because inventories are usually growing at this time of year. .. The $5.60 price of diesel at the end of August was 62% higher than its $3.50 price in early January.”


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidenl73bsrx2qypohtt6kvokecokg2zujcdmc4c4jhof 2sm2aqtfyhttps://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3muhenmontc2u

[Winehole23]

war is back on

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qxudeqrdbv6676vzjssrhllo/bafkreibbe4qicyqh3buf3t27zuoo4nhwp5vr32okhuzaxozjy svsiiuu3i

[Winehole23]

The U.S. military hit targets in Iran on Tuesday and Tehran fired missiles and drones in response as hostilities flare once again (https://apnews.com/article/iran-strait-hormuz-strike-united-states-6b098da673ac3161a266ee459d5eff44) in an intermittent war that has lasted more than six months (https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-war-goals-six-months-bb91832b61fa98fe12790d0a887719e0). One U.S. strike hit a home hosting a wedding, killing two people and wounding dozens, local officials said.https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-strikes-ad84a64884aedbbd1e5914182bb3cd8d

[Winehole23]

not sure how limited coastal bombing is supposed to accomplish what more extensive, sustained bombing already failed to do

just to show we can do "something"?

[Winehole23]

Adm Cooper briefed some lawmakers today on the war. "They’ve got a plan,” said Rep. Mike Rogers after the virtual discussion, adding “I would anticipate” the war will intensify.-WSJ

[Winehole23]

US President Donald Trump says “If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level”.

[Winehole23]

welp


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreif23uggp5hqgjgablicczhy5cual722wzqpl6wsasw46 mucty6mwe

[Winehole23]

Axios reporter: ‘Iran retaliated to the U.S. strikes by launching ballistic missiles towards U.S. bases in Jordan’

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:64u3ngfmhdgzjidk4stlgvn4/bafkreib3tvjaxe2vgx4j3giab4fly76fwxdrynt37fihjajie o6zihcfwi

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o6oolrt2732yxmr7juqrd2xo/bafkreiemlpndrkvvpbsvfzg36y7p3q5bywodx7ja5ptmhr4mu 5vuf67kxm

[Winehole23]

:lmao


A U.S. official said on Tuesday that the new strikes degraded Iran's attack capabilities in the strait and "bought at least a month" of lowered threat levels for commercial ships.-Axios

[Winehole23]

is this what winning the war and control of the Persian Gulf look like?


The Navy’s highest-ranking officer told sailors during a town hall on Monday that it would be a while before the service would return to its main logistics hub in the Middle East (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/08/11/multiple-uss-abraham-lincoln-sailors-have-tried-to-go-overboard-amid-extended-deployment-families-say/) after it was heavily damaged early in the Iran war (https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/08/28/record-long-deployments-add-new-layer-to-sailors-reenlistment-decisions/).
Answering a displaced service member’s question about retrieving personal goods from the base they previously called home, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle (https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/08/28/after-epic-fury-navy-may-need-an-extra-8-billion-to-be-solvent-cno-says/) said the Navy would not be using Naval Support Activity Bahrain (https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2026/08/28/the-devastation-of-nsa-bahrain-is-a-national-security-warning/) for the foreseeable future.
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2026/09/01/navy-not-returning-to-damaged-bahrain-base-anytime-soon-top-officer-says/

[Winehole23]

KUWAIT AIR DEFENCES RESPONDING TO MISSILE, DRONE ATTACKS-KUWAITI ARMY, AS PER REUTERS

[Winehole23]

strait is secure for a month, though


Iran targeted Gulf allies (https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-strikes-hormuz-trump-september-2-2026-cc891e22860d7a53bf7ade9a3d74c0ae) of the United States on Wednesday, firing drones at Kuwait and Bahrain after a night of U.S. aerial bombardment of Iran.https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-hormuz-washington-september-1-2026-e0165815fef56d94b1a07793d24fdee3

[Winehole23]

no declaration of war, therefore no benefits for the bereaved spouse


The Air Force is reviewing the case of a Gold Star widow from Alabama who wrote on social media that she was deemed ineligible for additional benefits following her husband’s death because Congress had not officially declared the military operations in Iran a war.


A spokesperson for the Air Force said in a statement that military officials spoke Monday with Libby Klinner, the wife of Maj. John Alexander Klinner, who was one of six service members killed when an aircraft crashed in Iraq during a refueling mission on March 12. The spokesperson added the Air Force wanted to ensure Klinner received “all eligible benefits she and her family are entitled to.”

...

Two days later, Klinner said the director of mortuary affairs informed her the Air Force was “initiating an audit on our benefits to ensure that we receive all that we are entitled to.”

The Air Force spokesperson said in a statement that they are “committed to addressing her concerns with care and respect,” but did not elaborate on why Klinner was initially told she was not entitled to the extra benefits. The Air Force did not answer questions on whether other Gold Star families have also experienced similar issues.
https://www.notus.org/defense/air-force-iran-war-widow-libby-alexander-klinner-missing-benefits

[Winehole23]

^^^she has seven month-old twins

[Winehole23]

whoopsie


https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/-e5RYcJxo8N1mw/_assets.hOxPrBAxrUIox1Bmuxo6HuzgkoYSgw-xYlBy9NnNVJU/map-Artboard_1.jpghttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/02/video/iran-us-attack-wedding.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-FA.xlpX.rMH8wUH4SvfL&smid=url-share

[Blake]

no declaration of war, therefore no benefits for the bereaved spouse

https://www.notus.org/defense/air-force-iran-war-widow-libby-alexander-klinner-missing-benefits

WE LOVE THE MILITARY

[Winehole23]

Houthis have begun today a widespread offensive across all existing fronts in the southwestern Yemen region, with the aim of this offensive being to advance toward areas near the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.-Kan News

[Winehole23]

American Suez Crisis


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vn3uvfefltdnpomgnpsjmigw/bafkreibzpami5tzjpzuiz4ftcs5dxzpvfpgy3dgpafxep55k7 5vw74mqfq
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vn3uvfefltdnpomgnpsjmigw/bafkreieo3b6hzanhuxa2mbsrgldnudcapirvtfn2cz67ofktk zsmuo3twq
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vn3uvfefltdnpomgnpsjmigw/bafkreihhumn5tpefxjvdvtzfwwsgphjxiyfauqindruulejvx ryzhzzamm
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vn3uvfefltdnpomgnpsjmigw/bafkreigv2t3poyy7lwrqvrxmjyip5ayfewconai7t6wbj4zvy twj3nnpk4

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/4

[Winehole23]

advocating for a literal forever war of low intensity conflict in a region we’ve pissed off all our partners and substantially degraded our logistics capacity inhttps://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/case-stalemate-iran

[Winehole23]

U.S. policy should focus on avoiding the most disruptive contingencies, especially Iranian escalation, and settle for maintaining dual blockades indefinitely. If Iran is unwilling to concede, Washington can slowly erode the Iranian economy and military while ensuring that Tehran cannot rebuild the strong regional position it enjoyed before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. At this stage, maintaining the current U.S. position is the most effective way of fighting—and winning—this war.

[Winehole23]

The national average price of diesel has reached $5.77/gal and is less than 5 cents from a new all time record, according to live GasBuddy data

[Winehole23]

2:05pm


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibuxlu24ifnzqdcrrw36uh6ayxo5dtfgc7gjhyell573 ff4i2kviq

2:21pm


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifjkfkln4r4debchoih7xbp6l43ddexo67gs4amfx5g5 3aa4yny6a

[Winehole23]

according to GasBuddy data, the live U.S. national average price of diesel has set a new record: $5.820/gal, surpassing the previous daily $5.819/gal all-time high that occurred June 17, 2022. (9/3/26 3:25pm ET)

[Winehole23]

temporizing for political reasons gives the enemy a chance to repair and reload...it isn't maximally efficient

after Rs lose the midterms and electoral majorities, resumption of hostilities will become more difficult

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-aides-fearing-midterm-rout-push-keep-iran-war-quiet-now-2026-09-02/

[Winehole23]

...again

[Winehole23]

Speaks to the deterioration of the republican form of government in the USA that something like this can happen at all

Trump treating federal funds as if they were unappropriated and a discretionary executive kitty is tyrant shit -- Charles I-type behavior

England had a civil war over something like this


House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT-03) has learned that officials at the Department of Defense (DoD) are working to divert billions of dollars from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to supplement the Department’s budget. Without notifying Congress or the American people, DoD has signed an interagency agreement that could give the Department access to billions of dollars that Congress provided to NIH for critical biomedical research. These funds were provided to support research to develop treatments or cures for infectious diseases such as influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, HIV, Ebola, and other dangerous pathogens.

“This secretive attempt to siphon research funds away from NIH is outrageous. The interagency agreement needs to be terminated immediately,” said Ranking Member DeLauro. “These funds were provided for lifesaving medical research, not as extra money for the Department of Defense. It is no secret that the Department of Defense is facing enormous financial pressure because of President Trump’s war of choice with Iran. But the Trump administration cannot make American patients, families, and scientists pay the price. Circumventing Congress to divert money intended to help Americans who are exposed to HIV, influenza, tuberculosis, and other deadly diseases—and directing those funds to the Department of Defense—is beyond the pale. DoD already has programs, funded by Congress, to research and develop medical countermeasures to chemical, biological, and nuclear threats, and does not need NIH funding to do so. The administration must provide Congress with a full accounting of how this interagency agreement was developed and exactly how much taxpayer money it is trying to transfer to DoD.”

DoD is attempting to pull funds from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), NIH’s leading institute for infectious-disease research. Trump officials at NIH disclosed the existence of DoD’s efforts only after being pressed for information by House Appropriations Committee Democrats. https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/defense-officials-attempt-raid-nih-funds-cover-department-defense-activities

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:mf6x4tcxia23iqiflhqtv2dg/bafkreiatyam57lf75qmwhuruedozy6gz6oi5mkyu5kyu5czu2 3eawy3bwa

[Winehole23]

"we're winning, the US controls the strait"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bjjfwpjjph5zwq5dqf4qvryp/bafkreif3csglkn4j3dkmagssl6d5vd4skeklfm4avjpywjmrc ogvrvikz4

[Winehole23]

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on Middle East countries to oppose external influence and consider reshaping the region’s security order.

Xi’s remarks on Wednesday to his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, on his first visit to Cairo (https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/1/chinas-xi-makes-first-visit-to-egypt-in-a-decade-amid-regional-turmoil) in a decade, come as Beijing seeks to expand its influence in the region amid the United States-Israel war with Iran (https://www.aljazeera.com/tag/israel-iran-conflict/).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/2/chinas-xi-urges-new-middle-east-security-framework-during-rare-egypt-visit

[Winehole23]

Egypt has emerged as unlikely battleground in the global AI race as China and the US vie for influence in the North African country.


News that Chinese tech giant Huawei (https://www.newarab.com/news/iran-slams-us-arrest-huawei-executive-desperate) had offered to take the lead on developing the country's AI datacentres surfaced just days before President Xi Jinping landed in Cairo (https://www.newarab.com/news/chinas-xi-jinping-visit-egypt-first-time-decade) for his first state visit in more than a decade.


The company has proposed exporting 1,408 of its most advanced Ascend 950-series chips to train AI models and 600 others for two clusters to run AI models after they're trained, Bloomberg reported on 26 August. It submitted a plan to build the datacentres inside 12 months, according to documents seen by the business news outlet.


The offer marks the first challenge to American AI dominance in the Middle East and if it goes through would be first known incidence of Huawei chips being exported abroad.
https://www.newarab.com/news/china-wants-back-egypts-push-ai-us-isnt-happy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreif2evl325uepbvqjwxdo76lfqwrnztxjhjywqbzthdf7 43dofssfa

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:auy2qp35r5bkipvygsyynxca/bafkreiajxbtvlbf3npw2k22sb4btfyxjamr657byoixynvdzt bc6zhpymq

[Winehole23]

The Green Lantern theory of war collided with stubborn realities in the recent past that our brave war leaders did not heed or learn from


Even if US military and intelligence strategists had failed to anticipate the failures outlined above, they had an incredible advantage in projecting how the 2026 Iran War would unfold: a series of five limited military operations that demonstrated each of the failures in advance of the major conflict itself. These were Prosperity Guardian (December 2023), Poseidon Archer (January 2024), Days of Repentance (October 2024), Rough Rider (March 2025), and Rising Lion (June 2025).

Prosperity Guardian showed that even a relatively resource-poor and weak military force could shut down a crucial maritime chokepoint with standoff munitions, and that an American naval force would be unable to stop it. Poseidon Archer and Rough Rider proved that a limited air campaign could fail to suppress the launches of those standoff munitions. Despite these three operations costing billions, they didn’t restore commercial confidence in shipping in the Red Sea, which was still down 60% from pre-2023 levels at the beginning of 2026.30 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?r=17yf0&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true#footnote-30) A post-mortem on the Red Sea Crisis published by West Point in June 2025 offered a blunt description of the failure of every option available to two successive presidential administrations:



This was the menu of options that the Biden administration had in November 2023, and it was largely the same menu that the Trump administration had in March 2025. Over the past year and a half, the United States has either attempted or threatened nearly all of these options, with little success.31 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?r=17yf0&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true#footnote-31)



The lesson for a prospective war with Iran was obvious. If the US couldn’t do it in Yemen, it wouldn’t be able to suppress Iranian drone and missile launches in the Persian Gulf or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The two major Israeli air operations against Iran in 2024 and 2025, “Days of Repentance” and “Rising Lion,” respectively, showed that even massive air attacks on Iran would fail to seriously degrade Iranian missile and drone launch capability. Video evidence of dozens of Iranian missiles striking targets in Israel proved that the Iranians were capable of penetrating the US/Israeli missile defense system at long range. Air Force findings from two decades earlier on the impossibility of destroying deeply buried targets held, as evidence slowly emerged that the Fordow site struck by the US in the closing days of the 12-Day War hadn’t been “obliterated,” as the Trump administration claimed, with the centrifuges there “largely intact,” according to the DIA.32 (https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming?r=17yf0&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true#footnote-32)
https://www.amerikanets.com/p/they-saw-it-coming

[velik_m]

Oil prices rise to 6-week high after Iran and U.S. trade blows, Saudi Aramco facilities reportedly hit

Oil prices rose to a six-week high on Monday as the U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil futures, the international oil benchmark, rose 1.5% to $97.73 per barrel on Monday and reached as high as $97.93 a barrel at one point, the highest since July 23. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, climbed 1.8% to $93.10, also the highest since late July.

“Strike our assets and you get struck,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf wrote Monday in a post on X.

That post was in response to an earlier one by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who wrote that the U.S. “will destroy (and sink)” Iranian oil tankers if Iran fires on U.S. vessels.

Saudi Aramco oil facilities were hit in fresh attacks on Monday, according to a report by the Financial Times. Damage was still being assessed on the facility in the Saudi Arabian city of Jizan, home to a 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery, and it’s not immediately clear who was responsible for the attack, according to the FT.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/07/oil-prices-rise-to-6-week-high-after-iran-and-us-trade-blows-saudi-aramco-facilities-reportedly-hit.html

[Winehole23]

^^^ US bases in the Persian Gulf got wrecked on day one and even more subsequently.

As predicted for decades and right up to the recommencement of hostilities in 2026, military action was not able to prevent Iran from exerting control over the strait, standoff weaponry was quickly wasted and could not be sustained in a high-intensity conflict, and rebasing US forces further impaired US operational tempo and effectiveness.

As a result, Iran still has a free hand to wreck GCC countries and the world economy.

[Winehole23]

Jizan produced 400,000 bpd before the attack


Saudi Arabia has accused Yemen’s Houthi rebels of launching attacks on civilian and economic sites in the kingdom, wounding at least 73 civilians, including women and children.


The accusation came on Tuesday as fighting intensified (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/8/yemeni-forces-launch-counteroffensive-against-houthis-vow-to-retake-sanaa) in Yemen, where the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government has launched a counteroffensive to retake territory from the Iran-backed Houthis.



The Saudi Ministry of Energy said in a separate statement that several “energy sector facilities and installations” in southern areas of the kingdom were hit early on Tuesday.


The attacks wounded a “number of citizens and residents” and sparked “fires at several locations”, forcing a “temporary halt in some operations”, the statement said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/8/houthi-attacks-on-saudi-arabia-have-wounded-73-civilians-official-says

[Winehole23]

Iran fired at least 20 missiles at two bases in Jordan.-Tasnim

[Winehole23]

Iran is full of bull and bluster certainly no less than the US government and CENTCOM

does look like things are heating up


Iran's IRGC Navy warns all crew of oil tankers in the vicinity of Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports that host Americans to evacuate.- Iranian State Media

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2sgb6fbrkreirraima6p2wlb/bafkreihmthhsuqw66n443nw2pqbdib5cpzqlelcqv2augenec 6ekr53wpy

[Winehole23]

https://wagaana.com/storage/editor-images/1788885277_HRtGjKIW0AA-FWj.jpg

https://wanaen.com/irgc-seizes-u-s-unmanned-underwater-vehicle/img_20260908_214335_070/



Iranian forces claimed to have seized an American underwater drone in the strait of Hormuz that the US military said had “malfunctioned” more than a day earlier.
US Navy Capt Tim Hawkins, a United States Central Command spokesperson, said in a statement the drone was surveilling regional waters when it malfunctioned “more than a day ago”.

Hawkins said the submersible was “defective” and an older model “that neither collected sensitive data nor carried any classified sonar or radar equipment”.
Operations in area waters continue, he said.

Earlier on Tuesday, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that its naval forces “captured one of the most modern, unmanned, and smart submarines of the US terrorist army at the entrance to the strait of Hormuz”, according to Iranian TV.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/08/iran-underwater-drone-strait-of-hormuz

[Winehole23]

Open software, mechanical, and electrical interfaces allow for seamless integration and rapid configuration of multiple payloads and sensors at a time - delivering relevant, impactful, and affordable capability in weeks, not months or years, for missions to include:


Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (IPOE)
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR)
Mine Warfare (MW)
Precision Placement


https://www.anduril.com/dive-ld

[Winehole23]

1.) it is a war

2.) we haven't won it


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:s4zhmzejitxabgd24pudf6gg/bafkreicxjpv2cmtn5vx7gdfcsw46yk46fo6yo77jk4nf5mwbb 2rtfmf75e

[Winehole23]

looks strategic


https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.vU4VOY-131cb9ZaM3pu8eAHaE7?w=220&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/webp;base64,UklGRkYUAABXRUJQVlA4IDoUAACwcACdASqFAQ oBPp1Gn0yloyMio5LKGLATiWdu4WpQ4ivVeewZU6JNervaPuS/zvin48PVMwQ5P afgr9H68P7Dvz9YfqEe1fBP/iu4oAL W/3z/n Gn/qen/1m/4f919mf9o/53lUeLlQG/o/ I9Gz/u/0Ppg sP/X/qPgS/X0arhNKFqalKAROc5yVqvzoXvruPOQSK1tLsjQ/K1aF4mM1LIK3l30I/GpFKo9NDsV3BlpINHgbG8DbIYPPCIp/egWte86BunMEbP2d40ygYuzvAr15x1l3lVYziS8jbaLDPvhmPc c/C9KhiA/wKVqzzh5kItxMWboSsp9e9vwFDMZ7lP25qa0/IttjnL 3YX3//3POlRMB7ttqmhptg4iW jSho34c9WYw2tGBESu7cE0r8ZBQlo7/LjM0qYl02bpNDVS4rDyYjSNVsacITzMqc6VyUCiHGjszFiiXej H8oUDaBIpnM5i0Eed8fJv40xnlbdnpxquGCtSQXbRS8JXtaKpF YtvKSCsyS/i6YV6fOlP5Qe wiPyPrjJuEbh4kEcLl9 wRsCs/fRAo/pdp/1z UHLhQXF jemBBAEJF4WYvzPJ/I7jLeR7xK9u3zNeeNhQ2mdK/1WuRlT8uljlnj43epxEMzHSU6FYuhCOmcBoTNyuvrTHbKlm7Q2 UX1b2GPfWdYSmef3y6W3fQRU2JS9wwruN7lpXLtP t0YJ Dnmgr 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The Houthis have seized the strategic Yemeni port city of Mocha on the Red Sea coast, (https://www.newarab.com/tag/yemen-war) government sources said on Thursday, marking a major development in the renewed fighting as tens of thousands have been displaced across the country.


Three Yemeni government sources told Reuters that Houthi forces had entered Mocha and taken control of the coastal city, while local sources told The New Arab that large numbers of residents were fleeing towards the southern city of Aden.
https://www.newarab.com/news/houthis-seize-key-yemen-city-near-bab-el-mandeb-strait

[Winehole23]

Turkiye Today reported: “Pakistan is likely to carry out airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen at Saudi Arabia’s request, according to Pakistani sources speaking to Turkiye Today. A source noted that the attacks may take place soon and will be made public shortly afterward.”


The report noted that “one of the military priorities for the Pakistani attacks would be to clear the Houthis from Saadah, along with other regions, according to one Pakistani source. However, a final decision on attacking Yemen’s Houthis has not been made.”.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-908136

[Winehole23]

*SAUDIS TELL OPEC THAT OUTPUT SLUMPED AGAIN TO LOWEST SINCE 1990

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HR1uQKQXEAAljIc?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

Brent crude


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreidqnhvj2wpx2ydug36jb6lrzwstqd3plkrkphvid3dcy nrfehoz4u

[Winehole23]

so much for freedom of navigation


https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ejy2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro gressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa36ce0 5-0289-4151-9c14-453e271bb71a_1046x515.png

The rules governing global shipping are breaking down, the world’s largest maritime nations have warned, disrupted by wars and a growing shadow fleet that operates beyond western oversight.

The shipping industry has for decades been protected by laws that ensure free navigation and the neutrality of commercial vessels, but the collapse of those principles is posing a severe risk to global trade, according to a group of 18 shipping superpowers.
...

The statement is the first public intervention from the CSG since it was established more than 60 years ago. The group’s members include Greece, Singapore, Denmark, Japan, Canada, the UK, the Netherlands and South Korea.

“Shipping routes are increasingly instruments of leverage and risk,” the CSG warned, adding that recent events show how “fragile” the system of maritime trade can be.
https://archive.ph/hM6Um

[Winehole23]

looks strategic

https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.vU4VOY-131cb9ZaM3pu8eAHaE7?w=220&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3

https://www.newarab.com/news/houthis-seize-key-yemen-city-near-bab-el-mandeb-straitinternet buzzing with unconfirmed rumors that Houthis have rolled up the west coast of Yemen and have taken Perim island

disastrous if accurate

https://thewarsan.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Socotra.jpg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/bafkreidemgxfmalc5djgfyh4ihceseym7qaqhbeun2i3jsxqp xy3i7tgy4

[Winehole23]

YEMEN'S HOUTHI CONTROLLED HUMANITARIAN OPERATIONS CENTRE ANNOUNCES THAT NAVIGATION IN THE RED SEA IS SAFE FOR ALL SHIPPING COMPANIES EXCEPT SAUDI VESSELS.

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreif2evl325uepbvqjwxdo76lfqwrnztxjhjywqbzthdf7 43dofssfa

Maybe the first time in history we can point to the President and directly blame him for the oil prices going sky high.

Where's tsa to discuss this?

[Winehole23]

Maybe the first time in history we can point to the President and directly blame him for the oil prices going sky high.

Where's tsa to discuss this?who cares?

tsa's approximately the worst ST poster ever

:lol

[Winehole23]

hoping this is bullshit, tbh


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4mkfodqyb7bwlfskay2my5te/bafkreif2cyvxuocal6x6mizfak3nosptbmp3uz62tca4tm2r2 33pge7swy

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3bqvbzpwgi5mqeqs6qlym26j/bafkreiepndfivlhy4xfevapbj6em6z4tiwlo3ltgujxvwwjgp rj42l73du

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreifbnspo762ke2m3e7vbxp6mat7oxy4wk54qk2vu7s4gn c5i5byqiq

[Winehole23]

Maybe Pakistan will help

KSA must be ruing the heavy bribes they laid on Trump, only for him to piss backwards on them when they need help the most


Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called U.S. President Donald Trump twice on Thursday and ​urged him to launch strikes against the Houthis, #Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials.


Trump rejected the request, and U.S. officials said the administration does not intend to take direct military action ​against the Houthis at this time, the report said.https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-declines-saudi-crown-princes-call-us-strikes-houthis-axios-reports-2026-09-11/

[Winehole23]

Maybe Trump is afraid of what Iran will do if the US attacks the houthis


The US is supporting Saudi Arabia in the escalating fight in Yemen, but is stopping short of direct military involvement. Commander of US Central Command (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-907756) Adm. Brad Cooper traveled to Saudi Arabia on Thursday for coordination meetings, Axios cited two sources with knowledge of the matter as saying.


The Trump administration will also be providing Saudi Arabia (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-908218) with US intelligence on the Houthis, as well as targeting data, and roughly 200 US military personnel are already in the country providing non-kinetic support, according to Axios.https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-908366

[velik_m]

EXCLUSIVE: US expands intel, targeting support for Saudi campaign against Iranian ally

More than 100 US military advisers are on the ground in Saudi Arabia providing intelligence and targeting support to the Kingdom in its military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, multiple sources familiar with the effort say. The assistance comes as fighting on the peninsula intensifies and risks spilling into open war with the Houthis, threatening a second major shipping corridor out of the Middle East.

The US military personnel are working as part of a newly-established joint forces command, which was formed in recent weeks amid signs Iran was ramping up its own efforts to aid Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, one of the sources, a US official, said. That official put the total at roughly 200 troops.

The presence of US troops assisting Saudi Arabia was described to CNN by five sources familiar with the operations.

The US has helped Saudi Arabia use a targeting tool that allows military officers to see in real-time what is happening on the battlefield, one US official told CNN, comparing it to the Maven system used by the Pentagon. Another source familiar with ongoing cooperation between the two countries also said that the US is providing “geospatial” targeting support to Saudi Arabia for strikes against the Houthis.

...


https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/10/politics/us-military-support-saudi-arabia-houthi-iran-yemen

[velik_m]

Iran-backed Houthis capture key island in vital waterway

Iran-backed rebels in Yemen captured the strategic Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Friday, two Yemeni government sources told CNN, potentially expanding Tehran’s influence over another key global shipping route.

A day earlier, the Houthi group captured the port town of Mocha as it sought to take control of the country’s Red Sea coast.

The news sent shockwaves worldwide over the possible impact on global shipping and oil prices, as well as the risk of opening a new front in the US-Iran war.

Bab al-Mandeb is a geopolitical chokepoint linking Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Although less critical to the oil trade than the Strait of Hormuz, it carries eddential goods worldwide, including millions of barrels of oil each day.

Its strategic importance has grown since the US-Iran war began, as Saudi Arabia increasingly uses its Red Sea export route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed to most shipping.

...


https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/10/middleeast/houthis-capture-mocha-red-sea-strait-intl

[Winehole23]

tough luck for the KSA, if accurate



Reuters reported, citing a Pakistani source, that Saudi officials held a meeting in Riyadh with senior military representatives from Pakistan and Turkey to discuss coordinating a response to the recent escalation linked to Houthi attacks.

The source said the three countries agreed that their forces would not enter Yemeni territory, and that any potential military response would instead be launched from within Saudi territory.
Reuters quoted a second Pakistani source as saying that no decision has yet been made on Pakistan’s participation in any retaliatory strikes. The source stressed that the military agreement between Islamabad and Riyadh is defensive in nature and is limited to protecting Saudi territory.

The source explained that Pakistani forces could provide military and technical support, as well as ground or air support inside Saudi Arabia, but would not participate in combat operations outside the Kingdom.
https://www.yemenmonitor.com/en/Details/ArtMID/908/ArticleID/181581

[Winehole23]

2098034415683211416

[Winehole23]

Taking out this pipeline would remove ~5M bbl/day from the energy market

Saudi Arabia's current production is reportedly ~6.5M bbl/day


https://investinglive.com/cms/media/Processed/Categories/featured/saudi%20east%20west%20pipeline%2011%20September%20 2026-featured-1789073126.jpg?width=960&format=webp

Unconfirmed claims of fresh damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a key Red Sea export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, are the kind of headline oil markets have grown sensitive to since Houthi attacks on the kingdom escalated again this month. Even unverified, the mere suggestion of another strike on Petroline tends to draw a knee-jerk bid in crude given the route's role as a workaround while Hormuz-linked disruptions persist. Absent confirmation from Aramco, the Saudi energy ministry or a wire service, any price reaction attributable specifically to this claim should be treated as rumour-driven positioning rather than a repricing of fundamentals. The bigger, already-confirmed backdrop, last week's wave of Houthi strikes on facilities in Saudi Arabia's south, remains the more material story for oil risk premia this week.


Any confirmation of damage to the pipeline would likely draw a firmer, more durable bid in crude given the route's role as a workaround for Hormuz-linked disruptions, whereas an unverified claim alone would typically be treated as noise rather than a repricing catalyst.
https://investinglive.com/commodities/unverified-satellite-data-fuels-talk-of-fresh-hit-on-saudi-arabia-s-east-west-pipeline/

[velik_m]

Saudi Arabia shut down East-West crude oil pipeline after multiple attacks

Saudi Arabia shut down its crucial East-West crude oil pipeline as a precautionary measure after multiple attacks, the kingdom’s Energy Ministry said Friday in a statement.

The pipeline was targeted in the Riyadh and Madinah regions on Thursday morning, the ministry said. Multiple people were injured in the attacks, it said.

Emergency teams were deployed to secure the pipeline and assess its safety, the ministry said. “Any further developments will be announced in due course,” it said.

The Saudis have relied on the East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war. Riyadh has redirected millions of barrels of crude oil exports per day through the pipeline to the Red Sea.

The Saudis did not say who was behind the attacks or whether the pipeline suffered significant damage. However, Iran-allied Houthi militants in Yemen have escalated strikes on Saudi Arabia this week.



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/saudi-arabia-shut-down-east-west-crude-oil-pipeline.html

[Winehole23]

is Saudi Arabia good at ground maneuvers?

if not, this situation could get existential in a hurry

[Winehole23]

Saudis point the finger at Iranian-backed militias in Iraq


The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's condemnation, in the strongest terms, of the targeting of the East West pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions by several drones that came from Iraq, which resulted in human injuries and some damage that is currently being addressed.

The Kingdom clarifies that, based on the request of His Excellency the Iraqi Prime Minister that the brotherly government of Iraq be given the opportunity to take the measures necessary to prevent attacks launched from Iraqi territory against the Kingdom and neighboring states, the Kingdom has opted not to respond at this stage, and to support the efforts of the Iraqi government.



The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that it reserves its right to take all measures necessary to protect its sovereignty, its security, its facilities, its citizens and the residents within it.

[Winehole23]

Saudis point the finger at Iranian-backed militias in Iraq


The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's condemnation, in the strongest terms,of the targeting of the East West pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions by several drones that came from Iraq, which resulted in human injuries and some damage that is currently being addressed.

The Kingdom clarifies that, based on the request of His Excellency the Iraqi Prime Minister that the brotherly government of Iraq be given the opportunity to take the measures necessary to prevent attacks launched from Iraqi territory against the Kingdom and neighboring states, the Kingdom has opted not to respond at this stage, and to support the efforts of the Iraqi government.



The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that it reserves its right to take all measures necessary to protect its sovereignty, its security, its facilities, its citizens and the residents within it.

[ChumpDumper]

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that it reserves its right to take all [begging] necessary to protect its sovereignty, its security, its facilities, its citizens and the residents within it.

Pay up, suckers.

[Winehole23]

For all the setbacks suffered by Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” over the past year or two, its forces retain an ideological fervor and an esprit de corps that is sorely lacking on the other side. The Gulf states’ failure to work together against the Houthis has been catastrophic, and it echoes Trump’s own failure to devise a plausible or coordinated strategy against Iran.

Although the Houthis already had the ability to threaten shipping in the Red Sea, the capture of the Bab el-Mandeb “means you can literally sit on the coast and fire at passing ships,” April Longley Alley, a Yemen expert at the Washington Institute on Near East Policy and the former political adviser to the United Nations special envoy for Yemen, told me. “It makes it easier and cheaper, and it solidifies, from a military and political point of view, that they have a stranglehold on the strait.”

The United States might not be able to do much about this, even if the Pentagon launches a new round of air strikes on the Houthis. (The Saudi leader, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, called Trump twice yesterday urging him to strike the Houthis, Axios reported (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/11/houthis-yemen-saudi-trump-mbs-strikes).) Bombs and missiles would achieve little without a ground force to take advantage of them, and America’s Yemeni allies are now battered and divided. The Trump administration waged a seven-week war against the group last year, and although it succeeded in killing some Houthi commanders, it did not dislodge the group or alter its ability to wage war, as Trump had promised.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/09/trump-iran-houthis-yemen/688592/

[Winehole23]

Pay up, suckers.scuttlebutt on the KSA's military is that the house of Saud prefers to keep it weak enough that it cannot become a power rival

in a hot war with an implacable enemy and little direct help from allies, the resulting danger to the KSA is nontrivial

[Winehole23]

blaming the attack on the East-West pipeline on pro-Iran militias in Iraq, even if true, is a convenient excuse for KSA's sucky military to put off engaging battle hardened Ansar Allah troops

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreifbnspo762ke2m3e7vbxp6mat7oxy4wk54qk2vu7s4gn c5i5byqiq

OBLITERATED!!!

[Winehole23]

Saudi Arabia recently asked Trump to attack Ansar Allah -- twice

Trump refused both times

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2k6avu5mrlxqqwsfceza2g3w/bafkreiho2nvbdhwi5g4ydiymqnvu3pbc47sbjps7umav7bxeh zdch6mqwy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tantvvuncwu5wn4a5mp2cm2y/bafkreihfm2airm4gwqstdwexrgwdpzvce4r62t22dg72dt72u m6ozaj4wa

[Winehole23]

Need a lot of butter for all that burnt toast.

[Winehole23]

"It's a Saudi-American f**k-up of epic proportions", a regional source said to CNN.

"The air support never came. And Mocha has now fallen." — senior Yemeni military source

[Winehole23]

The rationale, as relayed by US officials, is a deliberate husbanding of force. Trump’s directive is reportedly to keep American military effort concentrated on Iran and on protecting the Strait of Hormuz, and to avoid opening a second front in Yemen. There is also recent history behind the caution. In May 2025, after months of costly US and British airstrikes failed to break the Houthis, the Trump administration accepted an Oman-brokered ceasefire under which the US stopped bombing Yemen in exchange for the Houthis halting attacks on American ships. That deal pointedly did not cover Israel — and it did not cover Saudi Arabia. Re-entering the fight now would mean tearing up an arrangement that got US vessels out of the Houthis’ crosshairs, in order to fight a war Washington had already concluded it could not win from the air.


So Riyadh finds itself where it least wanted to be: back in a hot war with the Houthis, without the American firepower it counted on for a decade. Notably, Saudi Arabia had said as recently as July that it could handle the Houthis on its own. That confidence is now being tested.
https://sonar21.com/the-houthis-reach-the-sea-and-washington-tells-riyadh-to-fight-alone/

[Winehole23]

None of this is comprehensible without the arc that produced it. The Houthis seized Sanaa in September 2014. In March 2015, a Saudi-led coalition — armed, fueled, and intelligence-fed by the United States across successive administrations — launched Operation Decisive Storm to reverse the takeover and restore the government. What followed was not victory but stalemate: more than ten years of bombing that flattened much of the country, produced what the UN repeatedly called the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe, and killed well over a hundred thousand people directly with many more dead from hunger and disease.


The coalition never retook the north. By 2022, an exhausted Saudi Arabia signed onto a UN truce and, over the following two years, pursued a quiet exit — a de-escalation roadmap encouraged by its 2023 rapprochement with Iran. The Houthis, meanwhile, converted survival into strength. When Israel’s war in Gaza began in October 2023, they opened the Red Sea front, attacking shipping through Bab al-Mandeb and drawing the US and Britain into an air campaign that ran through 2024 and into 2025 — and that ended, as noted, in a ceasefire the Houthis reasonably claimed as a win.


The lesson the Houthis appear to have drawn is the correct one: they have outlasted everyone. They survived a decade of Saudi airpower, absorbed the best the US Navy and Air Force were willing to throw at them, and emerged still holding the capital and now reaching for the strait. The lesson Riyadh has drawn is that Yemen is a quagmire it entered in 2015 and has been trying to leave ever since. And the lesson Washington has drawn is that the Houthis are not worth a third simultaneous front when Iran and Hormuz command the priority.

The picture that emerges is one of Houthi ascendancy meeting American retrenchment, with Saudi Arabia caught in between. The movement that a superpower coalition set out to crush in 2015 is, in 2026, advancing on one of the world’s most important waterways and striking Saudi oil infrastructure at will — while the United States, having failed to defeat it from the air and unwilling to try again, confines itself to passing intelligence and targeting coordinates from the sidelines. For a Gulf monarchy that spent a decade assuming American power would ultimately be there when it mattered, the message from this week is stark.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:22qjj2h2xfdzx5um7fnoimop/bafkreihokgl7yefz3zooeli5wdqa6boupnlwjd5p3liisye6b qsm7jf2ja

[Winehole23]

the proof is not in the pudding but in the eating

we'll see


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ba5n3ajs7id7x2fckxhoxzna/bafkreifqnkkyejjvtmbdec7tkyz7uanyxugi6pmysfunv4mrl oj7475r64

[Winehole23]

Iranian official says no signed Hormuz deal expected from Monday Oman meeting

Senior Iranian official: Monday Oman Gulf talks will discuss Hormuz but won't yield a signed deal; Iran still wants transit fees Oman rejects (Reuters).

[Winehole23]

thanks, Trump


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreigj43fvcrivemwblgqmkkdj4alpedhra5j7gbyrkz2km mbmbj32ci

[Winehole23]

lol Trump already lost to Yemen and Iran

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iX4I15CB0cTbKMvosAglL3C6Pz 9KLceK5pZLoL7Xs18v /MjVsoRoM 2tiQfPLmfKyLQ7I0W421alKWA92cy4XEzWDsRIXVOqhZ6o9nE8 4GOq7 5xgId8NU 5qTw2EkdHyCeH9hMUxU9fwX184ioiie7W1ccOvrVyleWWoj4SV 6aX6QtYQXsIUZWprBr2SU9Gfypk7toMsGix08W og2wKEiZAf0YdcGiuz5D3weHRjf6NyN7yeqHgwtAhmlb4Cp8gS q8jgc0OofMev2p9wAyMDudn0LK8a3sth oW5pfXx8TFRX31NxPSxzGtTJTO3zEliS9L1YSoXqAowvkKzgCO pjkeErF7rEAuHz8inC29tp0Lv7r8DLNbJV4jYAo qinkElC6LMHI22/ntldSMSaDVooQgonBEX2qD7ZQD4o0iKi5aCL tAoYf5kJ1q 2Orai8SAx02ttIkb7K61GJq4BbUadp6cnPDbLx2HmIAMU0ZJK5 iLdP1LGlk4XQzSpTU9yrX4kPy77oDJtwrDQ4sDU5q8gIotV I5qHRgT/W0vQcREb36RUO2S2LEZuUVPu dG8JDTVqI5fqqyOG6uIdMU/CDwDCHT/RyV/G5 MNDFtaYilHeoLA6kt2gV/UY7IZDhah79DFz1RZLGCm0wevWC2IhYzN8G6etN4i2LiDqg118 o4p/haAZuaE1UWWtDbAFbscpnaVrsSTMkvMGEOjmAxBwHQVfy2iD7I UcJQKl DJq6qgAA


Q: What do you make of the Gulf nations meeting with Iran?

TRUMP: I don't care. That's up to them. We'll ultimately get out. Unless we decide to stay and keep the oil! Like Venezuela

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicc4r3cgexmvwhiwanno3we2ebc2ryompa3ljw45zwvj o6ork5moa

[Winehole23]

Costco is rationing motor oil


As The Drive (https://www.thedrive.com/news/costco-is-now-rationing-motor-oil-because-the-global-shortage-is-getting-real) originally reported, Costco has officially started rationing its motor oil to combat a rapidly deteriorating global lubricant shortage.


The days of grabbing cheap bulk oil are over. A 10-quart box of Kirkland Signature full-synthetic motor oil, which historically retailed for a bargain-basement $30, has skyrocketed to $58. More concerningly, Costco has implemented a strict two-box-per-customer weekly limit. Name brands aren't faring much better; a six-quart case of Mobil 1 is currently sitting at $44, with purchases capped at five per member to prevent hoarders and scalpers from clearing the shelves.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/costco-just-put-purchase-limit-150000292.html

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:idhkouai2l4qzihu2j37idgd/bafkreih6dnlifr3bbgl2qk3yqpgakip33hogsafzhsxdw5yv2 ud5rcr2iq


Trump: "Zelenskyy has to do one thing -- he has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. He's causing a shortage of diesel fuel. This isn't done by the Middle East, this is done by what's happening with Russia and Ukraine."

[Winehole23]

regional talks called off


“In the interests of consensus the regional meeting set for tomorrow in Salalah has been postponed,” Badr Albusaidi, the foreign minister, wrote in an X post. “We remain committed to fostering dialogue that supports stability and lasting cooperation in our region.”

Trump administration officials have privately told those in the Gulf region that they want to refocus any future US-Iran negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and not reopening the strait, according to three sources familiar with the matter.https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/iran-gulf-countries-strait-of-hormuz

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:d2u45eobywy3yoxxmqb647r7/bafkreidr7xny3b7kdhb32qw55rucpqyhmxkhhcvyhwhqvjygy rkvmoyo34

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:d2u45eobywy3yoxxmqb647r7/bafkreigotsm45vzaqvxbaertwnt37rfjv7hssjybn3d7j2nml u5viecxoi

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:d2u45eobywy3yoxxmqb647r7/bafkreidf5gpfxxrxnha5f6bdlzxpcb3kje2zw7fgjkduwxysb dq26rwn5m


Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports #if it doesn't restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4% of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders said.’ www.reuters.com/business/ene...

[Winehole23]

oil shortage hitting demand


The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday.


Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Global-Oil-Deficit-To-Hit-18-Million-Bpd-This-Quarter.html) decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027.


Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August, leaving inventories at 7.8 billion barrels, their lowest since 2023. In July, the IEA had put the cumulative inventory loss since the Iran war began at 410 million barrels.



Saudi Arabia accounted for a large chunk of August’s deterioration. Saudi crude supply plunged 2.3 million bpd during the month to just 6 million bpd, its lowest level in more than three decades, after attacks hit facilities and shipping routes. OPEC+ production fell 1.8 million bpd to 38.8 million bpd.

The shortage is already destroying demand.


The IEA now expects global oil consumption to fall by 2.5 million bpd this year, compared with the 1.6-million-bpd contraction it forecast in August. Record fuel prices are forcing consumers to use less, particularly as refinery disruptions tighten diesel and other product markets.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Sees-57-Million-Bpd-Oil-Supply-Plunge-as-Gulf-Recovery-Slips-to-2027.html

[Winehole23]

US refinery bottleneck

Winter is coming


The White House is considering using the Defense Production Act to add U.S. refining capacity, with American refineries already running at 98% capacity and diesel prices above $6 per gallon for the first time.


The proposal was discussed during President Donald Trump’s recent meeting with nearly a dozen U.S. refiners, according to Reuters. No decision has been made, and discussions are expected to continue.


Refining executives told administration officials that federal money would produce more barrels faster if it were used to expand existing plants or improve refinery efficiency. Building an entirely new refinery would cost billions and take years (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Oil-Majors-Dont-Want-to-Build-New-US-Refineries.html).
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/White-House-Weighs-Defense-Production-Act-as-US-Refineries-Maxed-

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreie2ucw2jcc7v6amzhkegvpwhfjm4lwjonkvjjyyrim7z 5bldvrhxu

[Winehole23]

In Saudi Arabia, the storage at Yanbu could support exports for five to seven days, but beyond that would cause “huge disruption,” said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank Ltd. Pending clarity on repairs, the near-term path pointed toward a test of $120 a barrel, he said.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-sept-14

[Winehole23]

Yemen’s Houthis say they launched a large-scale (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/13/fighting-continues-between-yemen-govt-forces-houthis-what-is-the-latest) ballistic missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait and claimed “direct hits”. There was no immediate response from Riyadh.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/14/iran-war-live-oman-says-hormuz-talks-with-iran-gulf-states-postponed

[Winehole23]

2099452157430829136

[Winehole23]

our rate of winning the war with Iran appears to be decreasing


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fqz767ikcbgk7yifapygtxeh/bafkreihjkb4smzbixpxvhn4klx5byhfajipvckbrtqdl7birb fq4t6qr44

[Blake]

...Costco has raised the price of motor oil sold under its exclusive private-label brand as well as limited how much of it customers can buy weekly as oil prices climb yet again.

Americans looking to try to save some money by purchasing motor oil to do their own oil changes may consider this yet another blow to their wallets, as they are already contending with high grocery prices and inflation worries.

Costco’s Kirkland Signature full-synthetic motor oil 5-quart two pack now costs around $58, well above the approximately $30 it had been selling for just last year. Costco is also only allowing customers to purchase two boxes a week.....

https://apnews.com/article/costco-motor-oil-diesel-iran-amazon-kirkland-f5fafbcc6f6befe718b61f7cdf3d3e38

[Winehole23]

rationing motor oil

[Winehole23]

Andy Burnham is considering requests from Saudi Arabia for a range of military support to counter attacks from the Houthis, as the UK fears a “catastrophic” economic hit from a new front in the Iran war.

The Saudi asks include operational support for its military to repel the Houthis’ push along the Red Sea coast toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key trade chokepoint, and help to defend against strikes on its oil infrastructure.-Bloomberg

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:b6t7t7rstr4gywftzf3k63on/bafkreieujwccccds2bozs2ln4i2rpx64iqgd3gxofk46v2eis jqm4utcqm

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:b6t7t7rstr4gywftzf3k63on/bafkreihgrekl6phnx3huuavhsyenb7bjozsmc77xb5xfpoo7z jrtmcqhpi

[Winehole23]

General Directorate of Saudi Civil Defense:

"An alert has been issued by the National Early Warning Platform for Emergency Cases in Jeddah Governorate to warn of a danger."


This actually seems to be a larger scale attack on Saudi Arabia, with warnings now for Jeddah, Taif, Yanbu, Jazan, Abha and Al-Ula.

[Winehole23]

Trump Nominates Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
(https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/14/trump-nominates-texas-rep-wesley-hunt-u-s-ambassador-saudi-arabia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky#) (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/14/trump-nominates-texas-rep-wesley-hunt-u-s-ambassador-saudi-arabia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky#) (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/14/trump-nominates-texas-rep-wesley-hunt-u-s-ambassador-saudi-arabia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky#)https://media.breitbart.com/media/2026/09/feb2026-Representative-Wesley-Hunt-Republican-Texas-getty-640x480.jpgMark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images (https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/representative-wesley-hunt-a-republican-from-texas-and-us-news-photo/2261697424)

​https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/14/trump-nominates-texas-rep-wesley-hunt-u-s-ambassador-saudi-arabia/

[Winehole23]

Saudi Arabia bear-hugging Trump and laying massive bribes on his family seem not necessarily to have been advantageous to the security of the kingdom

Nonzero chance Saudi Arabia as we have known it will soon no longer exist

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/002/184/135/b3b.png

[Winehole23]

None of this is comprehensible without the arc that produced it. The Houthis seized Sanaa in September 2014. In March 2015, a Saudi-led coalition — armed, fueled, and intelligence-fed by the United States across successive administrations — launched Operation Decisive Storm to reverse the takeover and restore the government. What followed was not victory but stalemate: more than ten years of bombing that flattened much of the country, produced what the UN repeatedly called the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe, and killed well over a hundred thousand people directly with many more dead from hunger and disease.


The coalition never retook the north. By 2022, an exhausted Saudi Arabia signed onto a UN truce and, over the following two years, pursued a quiet exit — a de-escalation roadmap encouraged by its 2023 rapprochement with Iran. The Houthis, meanwhile, converted survival into strength. When Israel’s war in Gaza began in October 2023, they opened the Red Sea front, attacking shipping through Bab al-Mandeb and drawing the US and Britain into an air campaign that ran through 2024 and into 2025 — and that ended, as noted, in a ceasefire the Houthis reasonably claimed as a win.


The lesson the Houthis appear to have drawn is the correct one: they have outlasted everyone. They survived a decade of Saudi airpower, absorbed the best the US Navy and Air Force were willing to throw at them, and emerged still holding the capital and now reaching for the strait. The lesson Riyadh has drawn is that Yemen is a quagmire it entered in 2015 and has been trying to leave ever since. And the lesson Washington has drawn is that the Houthis are not worth a third simultaneous front when Iran and Hormuz command the priority.

The picture that emerges is one of Houthi ascendancy meeting American retrenchment, with Saudi Arabia caught in between. The movement that a superpower coalition set out to crush in 2015 is, in 2026, advancing on one of the world’s most important waterways and striking Saudi oil infrastructure at will — while the United States, having failed to defeat it from the air and unwilling to try again, confines itself to passing intelligence and targeting coordinates from the sidelines. For a Gulf monarchy that spent a decade assuming American power would ultimately be there when it mattered, the message from this week is stark.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreid46f4pkl7mroy52p7ejltycinprppmfqz5mnbrkxsen hhgkdglqa

[Winehole23]

to date, pass-through inflation not counted


$811.65 per US household
Across both gasoline and diesel
https://iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreid5m6o4u425kgnznxxvnzs4ng7y46ihx7i4iz6juoqi5 guiaic55u

[Winehole23]

Kushner has been squeezing GCC countries like oranges


Earlier this year, as Kushner engaged in talks with Iran, he was also discreetly raising another five billion dollars for Affinnity in the Middle East. After the attacks on Tehran began, suspicions arose that the two endeavors were linked. “My sense is that he thinks he was killing two birds with one stone—he was helping the Arabs defeat the Iranians, and he wanted to be paid for it,” an American with deep ties to Middle Eastern leaders told me.https://archive.is/20260914185135/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/09/21/jared-kushners-dollar-diplomacy#selection-2597.425-2597.599

[ChumpDumper]

:lol I can only hate the fact it's Kushy who is ripping off the Arab royalty.

[Winehole23]

not interfering with Ansar Allah interfering with Saudi Arabia


Israel’s military has urged the government to refrain from launching attacks against the Houthis in Yemen, an Israeli news report says.


Unnamed security officials, quoted by the Haaretz newspaper, said Israel’s leaders should instead pursue a diplomatic course to form an international coalition to deal with Houthi territorial gains and new influence over the critical Bab al-Mandeb strait.


Tying the Houthi matter to the interests of the international community would help keep Iran at the centre of the global discourse, sources said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/15/iran-war-live-centcom-refutes-iran-claim-supertanker-hit-hormuz-mines

[Winehole23]

Diesel new highs, China crude making new record premiums vs Brent, backwardation accelerating, tanker rates exploding. All of this suggests the crude market is tightening rapidly because China has stopped relying on strategic draws.

Chart of diesel prices for past year

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreib3yflycb53b5jtlkoqjvji3p7yomkf74uezf7ihswpm 6ll56ymra



Chart of spread ($/bbl) between Chinese crude futures (medium-sour grade, delivered to China's coast) vs Brent

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreice6kgyt3zabrkeo4wc4bdvnvinhsgxdb5uedxweyse4 yu5rk5s3i



Chart of spread between front-month Brent and fourth-month Brent, with higher readings indicating a greater premium for barrels near-terms vs deferred barrels.

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreigswwgosozqoxyiemijnpdut7hzgafh4zc3xyrh4vw3p r5nzaogiq



Spot freight rate for a Persian Gulf tanker to the US Gulf Coast since 1991

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreidaydi65ydmixijludq6zcq5jx37ezywlklhdhnzzyki sxkuo4q6u

[Winehole23]

2099702209793433751

[Winehole23]

Pentagon IG report drops

Trump and Hegseth have screwed the pooch


A US government watchdog released its first report Monday on the impact of the Iran war, acknowledging the military’s advanced weapons shortfalls and offering the first public look at the damage to American aircraft, bases and diplomatic outposts in the Middle East.

Much of the information has been previously reported over the past six months, but the Pentagon inspector general’s report offered the fullest official accounting so far of the conflict’s costs in American lives, taxpayer dollars and physical damage. It included information from the watchdogs for the Defense and State departments as well as the US Agency for International Development.

The report, whose publication was first reported by NBC News, noted that the US war with Iran “has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply” in regard to advanced weapons. Experts have previously said it will take about three years for military contractors to replenish advanced missiles and defensive missile interceptors to prewar levels.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-military-says-iran-war-led-to-munitions-shortfall-reveals-base-and-aircraft-damage/

[Winehole23]

Department of Losing to a mid-tier power


The watchdog report, which covers April 1 to June 30, also acknowledged that Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and other structures at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan.

It noted that the US naval base in Bahrain, a Navy logistics hub in the region, was targeted with Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. US Central Command had to shift supply lines to alternate hubs that were much farther away, including Diego Garcia, a US-UK base on an island in the Indian Ocean. It required “14- to 18-day logistics cycles” to support operations in the Middle East, the report said.

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao acknowledged in an interview with The Epoch Times last week that “they blew the hell out of Bahrain” and said he has a task force looking into whether the Navy would need to repair the base in Bahrain to sustain its forces in the region.

Dozens of American aircraft and drones also were destroyed or damaged by Iran, including the destruction of as many as 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones that cost around $30 million apiece, the report said. Seven KC-135 refueling aircraft were damaged or destroyed, including five that were struck by Iranian munitions while on the ground in Saudi Arabia.

Another KC-135 crashed in Iraq, killing six service members, following a collision with another KC-135.

Those deaths, and the death of a pilot of a helicopter that crashed into the Arabian Sea, are listed as occurring during non-hostile events. Eleven other service members are listed as “killed in action” in Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress in late July that the war had cost $37.5 billion so far.

The costs in physical damage to US diplomatic facilities, however, had not been previously publicly released. Such outposts in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were damaged by Iranian strikes, with an estimated cost of $184 million, according to the report.

The State Department reported in early June that its other costs from the conflict came to $113 million, with nearly $80 million used to respond to contingency plans, including evacuation expenses for US personnel and their families as well as other American citizens and eligible third-country nationals.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreibmmz4mywk5y24djjrlheqcrldvtesihyj2hpsgk5zxw d2zrwoleu

[Winehole23]

well short of prewar levels, but a rising trend

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreif4tju2kf47x7xnsbnumtuw56nghh5fobm5b4tqb2hsc xpp5se2te

[velik_m]

AWS says it can’t restore service to Bahrain, UAE facilities 6 months after Iran strikes

Amazon Web Services said Tuesday it can’t restore access to cloud-computing facilities in Bahrain and parts of the United Arab Emirates, more than six months after the sites were damaged by drone strikes in the early days of the Iran war.

The company said in an update posted to AWS’ health dashboard that the damage at multiple Bahrain-based sites exceeded what its services are designed to withstand.

“After a thorough assessment, we have determined that we are unable to restore access to the resources and data hosted exclusively in this region,” AWS wrote.

In a separate post, AWS said it’s similarly been unable to recover resources and data stored in one of its availability zones in the UAE. It continues to work to restore two other UAE zones that were affected.
...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/aws-cant-restore-service-to-bahrain-uae-6-months-after-iran-strikes.html

[Winehole23]

with a grain of salt, of course -- it's a Yemen Gov't press release

Deutsche Presse-Agentur is sort of the German AP


A Yemeni military source: "The Houthi militants have dug trenches in the mountains overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait and planted mines in areas of the waterway."

-Deutsche Presse-Agentur

[Winehole23]

export controls on diesel to keep US prices down?

cooking with gas


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:el26bci423wwjjnhoohutwem/bafkreic5tmp3htdvkriyhdo5hnbmvdxoxwmjhhawkn3dfcuf3 otzlel37ehttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Faces-Growing-Pressure-to-Restrict-US-Oil-Exports.html
https://archive.ph/sXeed

[Winehole23]

The mission statement for the United States’ military’s ongoing war with Iran — one that has lasted months, left hundreds of service members injured and 18 dead — is not only shrouded in mystery but classified.

In the Pentagon’s first full accounting of the Iran war, the Defense Department’s Office of the Inspector General wrote in its report to Congress (https://media.defense.gov/2026/Sep/09/2003993626/-1/-1/1/OEF_Q3_JUN2026_FINAL_508%20SECURE.PDF) that “The full [Operation Epic Fury] mission statement is classified.”https://taskandpurpose.com/news/pentagon-iran-war-epic-fury-classified/

[Winehole23]

In response to the Inspector General’s request for information to U.S. Central Command, officials also told the watchdog that it “continued to refine and adjust the [Operation Epic Fury mission] after it began.”

Adding to the ever-changing narratives around the war, the military’s public-facing title appears to have changed.

On Feb. 28, the Department of Defense officially launched Operation Epic Fury (https://taskandpurpose.com/news/iran-war-timeline/). Over the next several months, casualties climbed, and multiple ceasefires took place, before see-sawing back to open hostilities. News reports began scrutinizing the Pentagon’s casualty database (https://theintercept.com/2026/04/08/us-military-casualties-wounded-iran-war/), and by July, the Pentagon began recording wounded troops under “overseas operations,” (https://taskandpurpose.com/news/iran-war-us-troops-casualty-numbers/) rather than under “Operation Epic Fury.”

While the Inspector General report (https://media.defense.gov/2026/Sep/09/2003993626/-1/-1/1/OEF_Q3_JUN2026_FINAL_508%20SECURE.PDF) appears to be using Operation Epic Fury as the official designation for the entirety of the Iran war, administration officials at different times have appeared to declare that Operation Epic Fury had ended, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying it had ended on May 5, and the Pentagon reportedly urging troops not to refer to the war (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/military-operation-epic-fury-may-5/) in Iran by its operational title.

[Winehole23]

"we're sending you to fight and die, but we can't tell you why"

[Winehole23]

gargantuan sale of bombs to Israel


US President Donald Trump’s administration is planning to sell to Israel a munitions package worth $2.8 billion, which will include tens of thousands of highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs, according to a US official familiar with the sale.

The planned sale, which has been informally communicated to relevant congressional committees that weigh in on large arms sales, includes 20,000 MK 84 and 20,000 BLU-117 2,000-pound bombs, the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said.

News of the package was first reported by The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/09/15/trump-preparing-send-massive-shipment-2000-pound-bombs-israel/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social), which added that the sale also includes a package of 20,000 I-2000 Penetrator warheads.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-said-planning-2-8-billion-in-munitions-sales-to-israel-including-2000-lb-bombs/

[Winehole23]

a one month shutdown of the East-West pipeline is probably not the worst case for Saudi Arabia


Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ADCB:UH), sees the Saudi economy contracting 3.1% this year. The slump could deepen to as much as 4.5% — worse than during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 — if the East-West pipeline is shut for a month and the government can’t send significant volumes of oil through Hormuz in the meantime, she said.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/mbs-and-saudi-arabia-face-crisis-with-key-oil-pipeline-shut-for-weeks

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreigtxurnvg7fkuqfh6kh6qmuiywcp5lwv2vt5gpkenvib lur42ewym

[Winehole23]

failed war leaves US military short of strategic standoff weapons


The Pentagon will need at least five years to replace the missile interceptors it expended in the Iran war trying to defend U.S. troops and bases.-WaPo

[Winehole23]

Trump's war may yet result in regime change in the Persian Gulf


Saudi Arabia has asked France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt for air-defense assistance as it faces sustained Houthi attacks and dwindling missile-interceptor stocks.-AP

[Winehole23]

.. because Saudi Arabia’s main ally and arms supplier, the United States, has seen its own stock of interceptors dwindle ..”

[Winehole23]

US side deal with Ansar Allah


US President Donald Trump said on Sept 12 the Houthis had phoned his administration asking the United States to keep out of the Yemen war. Vice-President J.D. Vance said on Sept 14 the US was in direct contact with the group, without giving details.


In the meeting, which one source said took place on Sept 13, the Houthis told US officials they had no intention of attacking American vessels and that they were committed to the 2025 ceasefire with the US, two sources said.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/u-s-officials-met-iran-backed-houthis-in-oman-over-the-weekend-sources-say

[Winehole23]

There is no problem to be solved in the Middle East today that was not created by the war itself.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreig6lxwicey7sa5dy4ex7om2lir53b7jh3hlc44ijnirk acbvpsx6u

[Winehole23]

South Korea snubs Trump


Seoul likely bracing for the White House to respond by threatening U.S. troop reductions along the DMZ. "There will be no deployment of troops or dispatch of military assets to​ be involved in or intervene in this war,” Mr. Lee said in a news conference. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/18/w... (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/18/world/asia/south-korea-president-lee-jae-myung-trump-iran.html)

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif4akyohwogfwmqextiyo422piicmngccqlegfntiugx 7njpvd3hm

[Winehole23]

KSA eager to stop the bleeding


Saudi Arabia has conveyed through the Sultanate of Oman a new proposal to the Houthis (https://www.jpost.com/tags/houthi) in Yemen, including a two-week ceasefire and the opening of direct talks between Riyadh and the Houthi leadership.


According to the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, the aim is first to discuss the Houthis' humanitarian demands and then attempt to reach a comprehensive agreement by the end of the ceasefire period.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-909031

[Winehole23]

Trump abandoned Saudi Arabia when they were counting on him the most, in a war Trump started without consulting anybody, so now he's selling them more protection


The US State Department approved the possible sale of around $24.3 billion worth of F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter jets and related equipment to Saudi Arabia (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-908833), the department announced on Thursday.

Saudi Arabia requested to purchase 48 of the jets, as well as 49 engines and other materials.

According to a State Department statement, the F-35 sale is intended to support US foreign policy and national security objectives by strengthening Saudi Arabia’s ability to deter threats to the kingdom’s security.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-908993

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qwwqmj5drgsgrqekhg5sax4t/bafkreidazwozehobtqeik3l37hmcmhszptwdc3cor56cihiwg gq46zwbde

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif4akyohwogfwmqextiyo422piicmngccqlegfntiugx 7njpvd3hm

Fun!

[Winehole23]

the war and the supply-shock it caused, are causing global shipping inflation





Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions are spilling into global shipping, driving more energy cargoes through the Panama and Suez Canals as trade routes become longer and less efficient.

Panama Canal access costs have exploded, with auction slots reaching a record $5.3 million and waiting times rising to 17 days amid surging demand and reduced transit capacity.

The wider tanker market is under extreme pressure, with charter rates topping $1 million per day as refiners scramble for scarce physical crude and available vessels.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Global-Shipping-Costs-Explode-as-Hormuz-Disruptions-Hit-Key-Trade-Routes.html

[Winehole23]

El Nino related drought and low water levels in the canal are partly -- but only partly -- to blame here


bids on daily auctions to secure slots through the Panama Canal have soared to an average of above $1 million in August, up by 16 times (https://www.ft.com/content/38083cb5-3892-40a1-b90f-102109f96b17?syn-25a6b1a6=1) from a year ago.

[Winehole23]

Explosions were reported in and around Riyadh and Al-Kharj early amid reports of a large-scale ballistic missile attack by Iran-aligned Houthi group Ansarallah targeting sites in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Civil Defence issued an alert over potential danger in the capital and several other cities as reports of incoming missiles emerged. Flight-tracking data also showed some flights into Riyadh International Airport being diverted or placed on hold.

Footage circulating online reportedly showed an explosion near Riyadh and Al-Kharj, while another clip appeared to show a ballistic missile descending as a Patriot interceptor seemingly missed its target.

The reports and footage have not been independently confirmed by Saudi authorities.https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/riyadh-attack-houthi-missile-saudi-arabia-ballistic-missile-alert-yemen-explosion-article-156184661

[Winehole23]

At the end of August, South Korea’s SK Gas has reportedly paid as much as $5.3 million to secure a passage on September 1, sources with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-25/asian-shipper-pays-record-5-3-million-for-panama-canal-access). The previous record-high slot fee – that’s on top of the regular transit fee – was also set in August, at $4.6 million, by another South Korean shipper.

According to the Panama Canal Authority, recent auction results have reflected “significantly stronger demand.”

The median auction price paid before the war in Iran broke out in February was around $55,000.

For vessels without booked slots, the waiting time to transit the Panama Canal is 17 days now, compared to just two days in February, according to Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreidzymjkconv6etxdkc37nbhdllfwydyljyhkkshrkrpq 35l4uc3tq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreih2pj3umeb6zls5qzjcuxu6fi3ehxue3hs3v3uqg2g3t 2hjztfx6i


Large plume of black smoke rises from the fuel storage area at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 19, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone

[Winehole23]

escalation trap for the KSA

[Winehole23]

It's Iran asking for a deal this time, but the price could be too steep for Trump



Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Al Jazeera in an exclusive interview (https://aje.news/52lgdn?update=4965882) that Tehran had communicated to the Trump administration via Qatari mediators its conditions for ending the war “on all fronts.”

“A response from President Trump is awaited,” Al Jazeera’s report reads.



Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Al Jazeera in an exclusive interview (https://aje.news/52lgdn?update=4965882) that Tehran had communicated to the Trump administration via Qatari mediators its conditions for ending the war “on all fronts.”


“A response from President Trump is awaited,” Al Jazeera’s report reads.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-2677895008/

[Winehole23]

something seems to be happening


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:mf6x4tcxia23iqiflhqtv2dg/bafkreifyxnsfwky4bhgowfah3y3mygtdk3id2rullqbwdqczo g5qn3joxi