View Full Version : Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran
Blake
05-19-2026, 05:37 PM
Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.
What's that got to do with the price of gas here?
ChumpDumper
05-19-2026, 09:49 PM
Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.
Are you unable to start a thread yourself?
Millennial_Messiah
05-19-2026, 10:00 PM
OLfpKOk43g0
they said that in 2022. it was down below $3 by October.
ChumpDumper
05-19-2026, 10:27 PM
they said that in 2022.Link please.
Winehole23
05-20-2026, 09:49 PM
I've posted once or twice about Lebanon since the war started
the search term "Gazafication" might surface a recent WH23 take
the general interest in politics in this forum is puny, topics are lost at sea
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 07:31 AM
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-21-at-2.06.54%E2%80%AFAM.png
Two supertankers carrying Iraqi oil to China passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, raising hopes of a partial opening of the vital chokepoint for Middle Eastern energy and sending crude prices tumbling.
Shipping data showed the two ships traversing the strategic waterway. A third supertanker transporting Kuwaiti oil to South Korea was also shown to be in the strait before its transponder was switched off.
Collectively, the three ships are carrying 6mn barrels of oil, potentially the largest volume to exit the Gulf in a single day since the US and Israel started the conflict with Iran at the end of February.
The supertankers steered through the northern side of the strait, following a route designated by Iran. “It is most likely that there was a deal done with Iran,” said Matthew Wright, lead shipping analyst at data company Kpler.
Analysts at shipping data company Windward said the passage of the ships, two days after Iran launched a new agency to administer permits and charge tolls, suggested the strait “is no longer a closed corridor but a contested and tiered-access environment”, shaped by US and Iranian enforcement.
To boost the credibility of its new agency, Tehran also on Wednesday said 26 vessels had passed through the strait over the previous 24 hours, although it was not possible to verify the claim using ship-tracking data.1
https://www.ft.com/content/110b9bb3-ec4f-460d-bfe6-4ffae9a2e945?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 07:32 AM
Are you unable to start a thread yourself?baby-bird syndrome
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 07:50 AM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihw6xg5ecx2vjz3eiytvdjf4md3d2536i4stlgqg7yuv xbffjxeam
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 08:41 AM
are we winning?
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihupi4mpulmto56jgtraws376gv7t5qlrcqiaicgren2 lpmxmggyi
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 03:29 PM
Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.My take on the war in Lebanon isn't hidden, you can find it in this thread and others-- Israel's conduct has been more or less directly genocidal.
I agree with you 100% that the Israel/Lebanon War is threadworthy.
Go for it, Ball Buster
Make a thread!
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 09:56 PM
House GOP calls off war powers vote it knows it will lose -- sparing Trump the embarrassment of vetoing it
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/republicans-cancel-vote-war-powers-iran
Winehole23
05-21-2026, 10:53 PM
"Trump fellates Xi in public"
Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said Thursday the U.S. is pausing a $14 billion arms sale (https://thehill.com/policy/international/5882121-taiwan-trusts-trump-arms-sales/) to Taiwan because of the Trump administration’s war with Iran.
Speaking during a Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing, Cao insisted the U.S. still had “plenty” of missiles and interceptors, even as scrutiny grows over America’s dwindling munitions stockpiles (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5848288-iran-war-impacts-us-missile-supplies/).
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5890471-us-arms-sales-taiwan-paused-iran/
velik_m
05-21-2026, 11:31 PM
US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel during Iran war — report
The US reportedly used up more than half of its inventory of THAAD anti-missile interceptors while defending Israel from Iranian attacks during the recent war.
According to The Washington Post on Thursday, the United States used over 200 THAAD interceptors to shoot down missiles bound for Israel. It also launched more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors to defend Israel, which itself used fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 from the David Sling’s system.
A US official told the newspaper that if fighting renews with Iran, the US will likely need to use even more interceptors defending Israel because of a decision by the latter to send some missile defense batteries for maintenance.
“Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this, because they never see the back end,” said a US official quoted in the report.
The Pentagon denied to The Washington Post that there is any issue of burden sharing with Israel, saying, “Ballistic missile interceptors are just one tool in a vast network of systems and capabilities.”
...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-used-over-half-its-thaad-interceptors-defending-israel-during-iran-war-report/
Winehole23
05-22-2026, 01:53 PM
scuttlebutt on the MOU under discussion
immediate cessation of hostilities including Lebanon, end of the US blockade, reconstruction funds for Iran, sanctions on Iran to be lifted as talks progress, can kicked on the nuclear issue, US to redeploy troops "near Iran" on completion of the deal
I’ve learned details on the latest proposal from the US to Iran to end the war which includes significant financial concessions to Iran.
As expected, it would be a multi-step process, building on a previous 14-point proposal. The proposal is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that sets up negotiations toward a “final deal.” It kicks the can down the road on the toughest issues so that the war can end.
In the agreement, which would be signed in Islamabad, the terms the US has offered Iran to include:
Immediate end to military operations including Lebanon and no more threats of force against each other.
The MOU leads to negotiations on a “final deal” to officially end the war. Axios reported earlier that would be 30 days of talks, I heard it’s now longer and could be extended.
Discussions of nuclear enrichment, removal of enriched material discussed later in the final deal. Iran commits in the MOU to never develop a nuclear weapon.
A large economic reconstruction plan for Iran, to be developed by the US and its allies in the region. How it works exactly is part of the final deal.
The US will unfreeze Iranian funds as talks progress.
All US and UN sanctions - including secondary - to be lifted after a final deal which will lay out a schedule.
Before a final deal and the lifting of sanctions, the US will issue waivers for Iranian oil exports, banking and other products/areas.
US removes naval blockade and starts to redeploy forces after MOU is agreed to. Pre-war maritime traffic restored within 30 days. US forces removed from near Iran within a month of a final deal.
The UN Security Council will eventually bless a final deal.
After publication, a White House official responded: “President Trump has made his redlines in negotiations clear. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, and they must turn over their enriched uranium. Any agreement must contain these items because the President will only accept a deal that puts America First.”
https://atmarquardt.substack.com/p/us-proposal-to-iran-includes-reconstruction
Winehole23
05-22-2026, 02:10 PM
Iran has been attacked twice under cover of negotiations so far...this weekend would be the third time
Winehole23
05-22-2026, 02:26 PM
Maybe Trump will switch things up and attack Cuba
Blake
05-22-2026, 02:39 PM
Maybe Trump will switch things up and attack Cuba
Sure, why not.
"CUBA SHOULD BE OUR 51ST STATE THEY HAVE GREAT CIGARS"
Winehole23
05-22-2026, 04:08 PM
Sure, why not.
"CUBA SHOULD BE OUR 51ST STATE THEY HAVE GREAT CIGARS"unless it's a turnkey operation like Venezuela, I don't think the US is ready for the likely stream of refugees
no way does Cuba become the 51st US state
Blake
05-22-2026, 06:51 PM
unless it's a turnkey operation like Venezuela, I don't think the US is ready for the likely stream of refugees
no way does Cuba become the 51st US state
Oh I know. I'm not sure Trump knows. I was predicting a similar tweet like the one he had with Venezuela.
velik_m
05-23-2026, 06:04 AM
Seoul says Korean tanker exits Hormuz under coordination with Iran
A South Korean tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with Iran, Seoul said Wednesday, marking the first known transit by a South Korean vessel since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February.
Foreign Minister Cho Hyun first disclosed the development during a parliamentary session, saying, “At this very moment, a South Korean tanker is exiting the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with the Iranian side.”
Cho added consultations with the Iranian authorities had been completed and that the vessel had “begun sailing yesterday and is passing through very cautiously.” He also mentioned “2 million barrels,” apparently referring to the volume of crude oil aboard the tanker.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry later confirmed that “one South Korean tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is continuing its voyage,” suggesting the vessel had exited the high-risk waters around the strait and entered a safer maritime zone. Around 10 South Korean crew members were aboard the tanker that completed the transit, the ministry said in a message to reporters.
...
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10742061
Winehole23
05-23-2026, 08:51 AM
^^^facts on the ground are running ahead of negotiations
Winehole23
05-24-2026, 06:30 AM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiel6y4aa2gzzds2ugvel24cofdfxetnd3x4awifxggma qkhdbawru
Winehole23
05-24-2026, 07:02 AM
wash, rinse, repeat
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:d7cxynfva4ff62b3ia7mclwn/bafkreibrsvxzztzjhr7zo7tmjp3a2galvkd546fi7xuuqcysl pullkdvfe
ChumpDumper
05-24-2026, 11:13 AM
People are calling it the biggest ever!
https://i.imgur.com/7Uwxg0G.jpeg
Winehole23
05-24-2026, 11:39 AM
has anything been signed yet?
ChumpDumper
05-24-2026, 12:20 PM
Of course not. We have the vibes of concepts of a framework of a deal.
Blake
05-24-2026, 01:27 PM
People are calling it the biggest ever!
https://i.imgur.com/7Uwxg0G.jpeg
A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT!
okay one of them said they might open the strait so we'll give them another 2 year extension.
BUT AFTER THAT NO MORE MR NICE GUY
unless one of them in charge says anything remotely close to saying they maybe might make a deal
Blake
05-24-2026, 01:35 PM
Even Graham has had enough of TACOs
2058245974733058140
ChumpDumper
05-24-2026, 02:12 PM
If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution.
This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.
Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability.
It is important we get this right.
One does have to wonder why the war was started to begin with.
Any ideas, Trump supporters?
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 06:59 AM
Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of data analytics firm Bubblemaps, told CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday that a series of nine anonymous accounts had a 98 percent win rate after placing more than 80 bets on pivotal moments of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iranhttps://newrepublic.com/post/210564/donald-trump-war-iran-venezuela-insider-trading
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 07:44 AM
the logic of DO SOMETHING is leading to escalation
The cycle of:
1) Threats
2) Lies of an imminent peace deal
3) Positive media coverage for that
4) Evidence of no deal, and nowhere close to Iran making concessions
5) Pretending not to care about a deal he transparently wants
6) Threats
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 10:13 AM
Iran doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get a deal done
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6szyyvptjr5yajbtumr3lwpm/bafkreie3kahbu65g75p5bs5ccvd2cg7ftfoziqzpmjbdcurhb r24as3iu4
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 10:15 AM
Trump is flailing for purchase
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreia6c5taib4ogz422c4eszuhjj6b4ynpaysi442swjhli izhma4xgm
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 10:38 AM
things seem to be happening today
Iran has demanded the preservation of its uranium enrichment rights in any nuclear agreement but affirmed it will adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.-Al Arabiya
Ship-tracking data show that three liquefied natural gas tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, heading to Pakistan, China and India, as well as a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China after being stranded for nearly three months.-Al Arabiya
Iran demanding transfer of highly enriched uranium to China, according to senior sources cited by Al-Arabiya.
ChumpDumper
05-25-2026, 10:49 AM
Iran likely wants to drag this out to humiliate Trump personally. That will give Bibi more time to bully Trump into renewed bombing and even boots on the ground.
All to get a new JCPOA.
Black President.
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 11:14 AM
KSA not signing on to the Abraham Accords yet
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreicy2nislltpifyv3djjlq72idxahsqcj3xemfcu4c4wb b5fvgve5u
Blake
05-25-2026, 12:17 PM
Iran doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get a deal done
Of course not. They have a decent hand to play and Trump makes shit up. Just another day in this stupid war.
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 04:59 PM
An Iranian source said the heavy gunfire heard near Bandar Abbas erupted after the IRGC targeted a vessel at sea, followed by U.S. fighter jets striking IRGC naval boats in the Gulf.
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 05:01 PM
IRAN’S MEHR NEWS AGENCY SAYS THE SITUATION IN BANDAR ABBAS IS UNDER CONTROL AND THAT THE SOUNDS OF EXPLOSIONS WERE CAUSED BY DEFENSIVE ACTIVITY.
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 05:29 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:tgw3d4hvw3x5ijrxax7lg26u/bafkreidskwhdeccwxpbu6ohu4agecy6uyvybvo34w5ykcnbw5 muznvigvi
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 06:05 PM
U.S. forces carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran on Monday, CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins told Fox News.
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 06:08 PM
"using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire"
Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire
Winehole23
05-25-2026, 06:09 PM
i.e, attacking the other side
Millennial_Messiah
05-26-2026, 01:56 AM
KSA not signing on to the Abraham Accords yet
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreicy2nislltpifyv3djjlq72idxahsqcj3xemfcu4c4wb b5fvgve5u
I say make all of Israel as the Palestinian state and put the Israeli's in Auschwitz.
Winehole23
05-26-2026, 05:29 AM
Workers’ pay packets are shrinking in relation to prices in a growing number of rich countries as the energy shock unleashed by the Iran war chokes off a nascent recovery in real wages.The squeeze on consumers in the UK, US and elsewhere comes as they face sharp increases in prices for petrol and airfares triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US inflation jumped to an annual 3.8 per cent in April, while average hourly earnings increased 3.6 per cent over the year, meaning prices were rising faster than earnings for the first time in two years.“The war is roiling supply chains and will push prices higher [than] before, even if the strait were to open tomorrow,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US. https://www.ft.com/content/e126f744-3db9-4305-8871-31f83ebc4ed7?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Winehole23
05-26-2026, 05:32 AM
I say make all of Israel as the Palestinian state and put the Israeli's in Auschwitz.there are ~2 mlllion Israeli Arabs, I'm guessing you don't include them in your extermination fantasy
Winehole23
05-26-2026, 06:47 AM
can't imagine what might go wrong
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:34r2ipt6f7idg5w7hnsf7afa/bafkreiaafe3j5bvgj7v2pyd4wxp3ikrfnin7y7ptqve7uj2t6 btplxzn5u
Winehole23
05-26-2026, 07:11 AM
forking over billions merely to begin talks
According to reports in Iran, Tehran is standing on the fact that they will receive 12 billion dollars with the announcement of the memorandum of understanding between it and Washington.-Kan News
Winehole23
05-26-2026, 07:17 AM
is this what unconditional surrender looks like?
Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is essential to any peace deal with the United States, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, said on Monday.
Millennial_Messiah
05-26-2026, 11:02 PM
there are ~2 mlllion Israeli Arabs, I'm guessing you don't include them in your extermination fantasy
They're not Israelis, they're Palestinians
Winehole23
05-27-2026, 06:20 AM
They're not Israelis, they're PalestiniansIsraeli citizens are citizens of Israel. Some Israeli citizens -- about 20% -- are Arabs.
Thanks for admitting you just want to kill Jews.
Winehole23
05-27-2026, 07:39 AM
Iran state TV saying MOU draft reached -- no US reply as yet
Winehole23
05-27-2026, 07:47 AM
all scuttlebutt, but amounts to an epochal strategic loss for the USA if accurate
could be Iran is releasing its wish list
According to Tehran, if a final deal is reached within 60 days, the MoU will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution.
Under the draft MoU, U.S. military forces will withdraw from the vicinity of Iran and lift the naval blockade. In return, Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month.
The management and route of ship traffic through the Strait will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman.
$$$
Iranian state TV stated that the MoU framework is not yet finalized, and no step will be taken by Tehran without "tangible verification."-Reuters reports citing Iranian state TV
Winehole23
05-27-2026, 09:45 AM
deal not close?
The White House says that reporting in Iranian media about a draft MoU between the U.S. and Iran is untrue and a complete fabrication. "Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out," the White House said.
ChumpDumper
05-27-2026, 10:44 AM
"Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out"
True enough. Nobody should believe what the White House is putting out either, unfortunately.
Blake
05-27-2026, 12:24 PM
"Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out"
True enough. Nobody should believe what the White House is putting out either, unfortunately.
Sad times we live where I think Iran state media tells less lies than the WH
Winehole23
05-27-2026, 07:23 PM
*moar defensive strikes*
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-carries-out-new-strikes-iran-against-military-site-official-says-2026-05-27/
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 07:41 AM
Central Command is getting reports that military personnel are being targeted using commercially available location data. Few details available, but it’s a sign that the tech industry’s advertising-surveillance complex is having consequences on the battlefield.www.reuters.com/business/med... (https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/pentagon-says-us-military-personnel-are-reportedly-being-targeted-using-location-2026-05-28/)
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 07:48 AM
Trump threatened Oman yesterday
"Oman will behave just like everyone else, or we'll have to blow them up"
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 08:42 AM
https://www.wired.com/story/phone-data-us-soldiers-spies-nuclear-germany/
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 09:26 AM
deal is on, according to unnamed US officials, subject to Trump's final approval
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreicu4oyzn22yimj6ie46jwh3o7nvjea4wdrpwugl6hb5m 5vpe7pcqi
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreicgg5dms5zzfdm7xqzccxudtnlwmukb6vofc4twhjc27 752wl2354
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 09:52 AM
"we made a deal to make a deal, but neither of the dealmakers has signed on yet"
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 10:15 AM
Mojtaba Khamenei did not approve the agreement, and this is one of the reasons Trump did not say 'yes'
“Actually, there is perhaps an agreement here between Arakchi, Kalibaf, Witkoff, and his people on the other side - but the senior Iranian leadership, the decision-makers, did not say 'yes'”-i24
Blake
05-28-2026, 11:01 AM
"we made a deal to make a deal, but neither of the dealmakers has signed on yet"
"IT'S RUNNING ON FUMES BUT LOOKS CLOSE"
set up for the weekend before "NO MORE MR NICE GUY!!" come Monday
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 11:07 AM
"IT'S RUNNING ON FUMES BUT LOOKS CLOSE"
set up for the weekend before "NO MORE MR NICE GUY!!" come Mondaysimulating deals with Iran to manipulate/soothe the market won't work when there's a shortage of physical oil -- price discovery/demand destruction will happen
ChumpDumper
05-28-2026, 11:15 AM
This is pathetic.
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 11:23 AM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreifuehejmpwhfyt2vykutknil6rxkf2p7ad6qffpfswph puwmjebvu
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 03:42 PM
Exxon Senior VP Neil Chapman, "at the Bernstein Conference":
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifc6nry4ppng23vidwvzb5ugccwnnppbjf777lftqhoq zau6d5lxqhttps://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mmwtnytpek2o
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 03:51 PM
"IT'S RUNNING ON FUMES BUT LOOKS CLOSE"
set up for the weekend before "NO MORE MR NICE GUY!!" come Mondayyesterday was the first day of this four-day pillar of Islam, Eid al-Adha
so yea, roughly corresponds with the end of this particular festival
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 03:55 PM
*US defensive strikes incoming"
Iranian armed forces fired warning shots at four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, which were attempting to pass through the strait without coordination.
The explosion heard in the city of Jam, Bushehr province, was caused by defense forces confronting hostile aircraft. Unofficial news reports indicate the destruction of an American drone.
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 04:04 PM
This is pathetic.seems for now we're in the extend and pretend phase
it can't last forever
Blake
05-28-2026, 04:14 PM
*US defensive strikes incoming"
The Department of War saying these are defensive strikes and this isn't a war is annoyingly hilarious and stupid.
Blake
05-28-2026, 04:19 PM
seems for now we're in the extend and pretend phase
it can't last forever
It can last long enough to cause permanent economic and military damage. We've already exhausted a bunch of our weapons stockpiles that will take years to replenish.
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 04:41 PM
It can last long enough to cause permanent economic and military damage. We've already exhausted a bunch of our weapons stockpiles that will take years to replenish.
expect to see more desperate lashing out
they don't know when they've already lost
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 04:48 PM
the economic damage will be extensive regardless
practically speaking it may not be until 2027 at the soonest that normal shipping volumes of extractive products and distillates will begin to resume in the Persian Gulf, assuming a stable diplomatic/political resolution can be reached beforehand
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 07:39 PM
one paradox of intention is that Trump despite his corrupt will is hastening the transition from carbon-based energy sources to cheaper electrification and batteries
Blake
05-28-2026, 07:42 PM
one paradox of intention is that Trump despite his corrupt will is hastening the transition from carbon-based energy sources to cheaper electrification and batteries
And if it works he'll take credit. Trump Solar coming soon.
Winehole23
05-28-2026, 07:46 PM
And if it works he'll take credit. Trump Solar coming soon.Oil companies are getting richer now, win-win
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 04:58 AM
It is not clear that all the parties are working from the same draft agreement, one diplomat involved in the process said.
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 05:00 AM
the US has attacked Iran twice under cover of negotiations and assassinated the previous supreme leader
Communications between the sides have been frustratingly slow, U.S. officials said, because senior Iranian officials are communicating via couriers and the country’s supreme leader is in hiding.-NYT
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 06:40 AM
Obama unfroze $1.2 billion of Iranian money and got a verifiable nuclear deal without a war or a global energy supply crunch
We're already in a war Trump started, an oil/gas supply crunch is unavoidable and Trump's reported sweetener for Iran is ~150x bigger
U.S.–Iran draft deal includes a $300 billion investment fund for Iran. Tehran wanted reparations for war damage. Washington rebranded it as an international investment vehicle. Witkoff and Kushner floated the idea, pitching Tehran real estate and a broader fund as deal sweeteners.-NYT
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 07:19 AM
the more Trump dithers, the greater the economic and political pain will be
something similar is true for the Iranian regime, but its struggle is existential, Iran has no reason to trust Trump will honor his own deal
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 04:11 PM
It can last long enough to cause permanent economic and military damage. We've already exhausted a bunch of our weapons stockpiles that will take years to replenish.tank bottoms are just a few weeks away, according to the Exxon Senior VP
it's been compared to living month to month, temporary disruptions can lead to chronic shortages if not reversed quickly
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 04:17 PM
like say, a CAT 5 hurricane hitting htown or NO
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 04:21 PM
or escalation in the Persian Gulf
Winehole23
05-29-2026, 04:22 PM
tank bottoms are just a few weeks away, according to the Exxon Senior VP
it's been compared to living month to month, temporary disruptions can lead to chronic shortages if not reversed quicklyTrump touting energy conservation is another predictable reversal, tbh
Winehole23
05-30-2026, 07:52 AM
just spitballing, as one does online
2060648853573861577
Winehole23
05-31-2026, 09:53 AM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiha5ix2bxuvqvq26hqmjzimxflk5rimz2w5asgxfbf76 bhnsvzwr4
Winehole23
05-31-2026, 05:21 PM
if this isn't made up bullshit ("a source familiar with the matter told Iran International") we did regime change
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has submitted an official letter of resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader, a source familiar with the matter told Iran International.
In the letter sent on Sunday, Pezeshkian stressed that the president and the government have effectively been excluded from major and vital decision-making processes in the country, and that the vacuum created by this situation has enabled hardline factions within the IRGC to take control of affairs, the source said.
Pezeshkian added that under such circumstances he is unable to run the government and carry out his legal responsibilities, and for that reason has requested to step down immediately.
It is not yet clear whether Mojtaba Khamenei will accept the president's resignation, but the contents of the letter point to a deep and unprecedented rift at the highest levels of power.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605312204
Winehole23
05-31-2026, 05:27 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:uf6xe5actjzjqqglrr5fvu7j/bafkreihn4vkwpne6d2ijo2ubl3yyxdi7v2yhhpks7godlqtd3 h4pj5jvvi
Winehole23
05-31-2026, 05:44 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif4zwh72m4ucvqeubpsx6tqjflk5ol3uks7jdqkxk5lq wn3rclwse
the Iranians sense Mr. Trump’s deep reluctance to restart combat operations that are deeply unpopular in the United States, and most Iran experts say they expect Tehran to try to stretch the negotiations for months or years -- as they have with past administrations.https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/us/politics/trump-iran-stalemate-ukraine-gaza.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Winehole23
06-01-2026, 12:03 AM
this was in response to Iran shooting missiles and drones at a US base in Kuwait
ceasefire still good?
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — US military says it launched airstrikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after Tehran shot down MQ-1 Predator drone.
velik_m
06-01-2026, 10:30 AM
Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to ‘completely’ block Strait of Hormuz: State media
Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the U.S. through intermediaries, and Tehran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, Iran’s state-affiliated news outlet Tasnim said Monday.
The report, in a translated post on the social media site Telegram, homed in on Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah.
“No dialogue will take place” until Israel fully withdraws from occupied areas in Lebanon and stops all attacks in both Lebanon and Gaza, per Tasnim.
“Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters,” the report said.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
...
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html
Winehole23
06-01-2026, 10:30 AM
Iran signals it may stop exchanging messages with mediators
Signs point to escalation
Additionally, the Resistance Front and Iran have resolved to pursue the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the activation of other fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as part of their agenda to punish the Zionists and their supporters.-Tasnimhttps://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-stopping-message-exchanges-with-us-may-block-hormuz-tasnim-news-agency-2026-06-01/
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 07:05 AM
moving troops out
USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, carrying the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, has shifted from the CENTCOM area of responsibility to the Indo Pacific.
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 10:28 AM
"prospects of an agreement to negotiate"
* RUBIO SAYS: THERE IS A PROSPECT THAT IRAN HAS AGREED TO NEGOTIATE ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR PROGRAM THAT THEY PREVIOUSLY REFUSED TO MENTION IN DICUSSIONS
Ball Buster
06-02-2026, 10:36 AM
Thomas Massie, 50k likes...
The more Netanyahu prevents the war with Iran from ending, the more obvioius it becomes that he convinced Trump to start it.
https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/2061783761017057484
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 05:12 PM
talks going good?
KUWAITI ARMY SAYS AIR DEFENCES CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING HOSTILE MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACKS
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 05:16 PM
Iranian sources report that Iran is retaliating to a small American airstrike on Qeshm Island that took place about an hour ago, as well as the U.S. interception of an Iranian oil tanker
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 05:19 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7mzhepjvz65dzfuapfusodxg/bafkreianybnbtzrlnjhkarvygsxkkf7fybve5ct4iu2fwsb57 vzovdubci
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 05:19 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2awsew56svs4bona4lj2tj67/bafkreihssvnjw43kkbwfkdl2b5munnn4t2ilqkotrhtnapwfu 4t4wgnoa4
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 06:44 PM
still a ceasefire?
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3bqvbzpwgi5mqeqs6qlym26j/bafkreigjfnqkd34cyivco7jlwlmdsnvgpwldvhnsx7d34fm4z k63ufylpi
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 06:45 PM
more US and Iranian defensive attacks, I take it
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 07:03 PM
"during the ceasefire"
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oqexhdqbizq24v6ikjhhig2h/bafkreib4wzhuynxefmdwzplfu2xz6n5owxgiz4b7qyaixt7os g36t6mha4
Winehole23
06-02-2026, 07:05 PM
"ignition of the aggressor's fortresses"
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreian6i2wpi3h3qqgkjr4vbu4ypf73c6o6z7oftqw2j3j4 6ieihrjzq
Winehole23
06-03-2026, 04:05 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lm4eq2cftwbnrmzkzowigpt7/bafkreigqcjiv6ywqcpop2vmlv5gsl5gc2sx3yndy42qph35fi z6oaqacwu
Winehole23
06-03-2026, 04:59 PM
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:njhuquor23vkkeamltaxdsnz/bafkreidohbytfufwxy4yag72olcqvzxwm3ncmebcr5nqtwv73 6d67cmocm
Reuters: U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES BACKS RESOLUTION CURBING TRUMP'S IRAN WAR POWERS
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