Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Blake]

Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.

What's that got to do with the price of gas here?

[ChumpDumper]

Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.

Are you unable to start a thread yourself?

[Millennial_Messiah]

OLfpKOk43g0

they said that in 2022. it was down below $3 by October.

[ChumpDumper]

they said that in 2022.Link please.

[Winehole23]

I've posted once or twice about Lebanon since the war started

the search term "Gazafication" might surface a recent WH23 take

the general interest in politics in this forum is puny, topics are lost at sea

[Winehole23]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot-2026-05-21-at-2.06.54%E2%80%AFAM.png


Two supertankers carrying Iraqi oil to China passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, raising hopes of a partial opening of the vital chokepoint for Middle Eastern energy and sending crude prices tumbling.
Shipping data showed the two ships traversing the strategic waterway. A third supertanker transporting Kuwaiti oil to South Korea was also shown to be in the strait before its transponder was switched off.

Collectively, the three ships are carrying 6mn barrels of oil, potentially the largest volume to exit the Gulf in a single day since the US and Israel started the conflict with Iran at the end of February.

The supertankers steered through the northern side of the strait, following a route designated by Iran. “It is most likely that there was a deal done with Iran,” said Matthew Wright, lead shipping analyst at data company Kpler.

Analysts at shipping data company Windward said the passage of the ships, two days after Iran launched a new agency to administer permits and charge tolls, suggested the strait “is no longer a closed corridor but a contested and tiered-access environment”, shaped by US and Iranian enforcement.

To boost the credibility of its new agency, Tehran also on Wednesday said 26 vessels had passed through the strait over the previous 24 hours, although it was not possible to verify the claim using ship-tracking data.1
https://www.ft.com/content/110b9bb3-ec4f-460d-bfe6-4ffae9a2e945?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

Are you unable to start a thread yourself?baby-bird syndrome

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihw6xg5ecx2vjz3eiytvdjf4md3d2536i4stlgqg7yuv xbffjxeam

[Winehole23]

are we winning?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihupi4mpulmto56jgtraws376gv7t5qlrcqiaicgren2 lpmxmggyi

[Winehole23]

Whiny, where's your Lebanon thread? Israel has been bombing and murdering children there every single day this year.My take on the war in Lebanon isn't hidden, you can find it in this thread and others-- Israel's conduct has been more or less directly genocidal.

I agree with you 100% that the Israel/Lebanon War is threadworthy.



Go for it, Ball Buster

Make a thread!

[Winehole23]

House GOP calls off war powers vote it knows it will lose -- sparing Trump the embarrassment of vetoing it

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/republicans-cancel-vote-war-powers-iran

[Winehole23]

"Trump fellates Xi in public"


Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said Thursday the U.S. is pausing a $14 billion arms sale (https://thehill.com/policy/international/5882121-taiwan-trusts-trump-arms-sales/) to Taiwan because of the Trump administration’s war with Iran.

Speaking during a Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing, Cao insisted the U.S. still had “plenty” of missiles and interceptors, even as scrutiny grows over America’s dwindling munitions stockpiles (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5848288-iran-war-impacts-us-missile-supplies/).
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5890471-us-arms-sales-taiwan-paused-iran/

[velik_m]

US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel during Iran war — report

The US reportedly used up more than half of its inventory of THAAD anti-missile interceptors while defending Israel from Iranian attacks during the recent war.

According to The Washington Post on Thursday, the United States used over 200 THAAD interceptors to shoot down missiles bound for Israel. It also launched more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors to defend Israel, which itself used fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 from the David Sling’s system.

A US official told the newspaper that if fighting renews with Iran, the US will likely need to use even more interceptors defending Israel because of a decision by the latter to send some missile defense batteries for maintenance.

“Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this, because they never see the back end,” said a US official quoted in the report.

The Pentagon denied to The Washington Post that there is any issue of burden sharing with Israel, saying, “Ballistic missile interceptors are just one tool in a vast network of systems and capabilities.”

...



https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-used-over-half-its-thaad-interceptors-defending-israel-during-iran-war-report/

[Winehole23]

scuttlebutt on the MOU under discussion

immediate cessation of hostilities including Lebanon, end of the US blockade, reconstruction funds for Iran, sanctions on Iran to be lifted as talks progress, can kicked on the nuclear issue, US to redeploy troops "near Iran" on completion of the deal


I’ve learned details on the latest proposal from the US to Iran to end the war which includes significant financial concessions to Iran.

As expected, it would be a multi-step process, building on a previous 14-point proposal. The proposal is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that sets up negotiations toward a “final deal.” It kicks the can down the road on the toughest issues so that the war can end.



In the agreement, which would be signed in Islamabad, the terms the US has offered Iran to include:




Immediate end to military operations including Lebanon and no more threats of force against each other.
The MOU leads to negotiations on a “final deal” to officially end the war. Axios reported earlier that would be 30 days of talks, I heard it’s now longer and could be extended.
Discussions of nuclear enrichment, removal of enriched material discussed later in the final deal. Iran commits in the MOU to never develop a nuclear weapon.
A large economic reconstruction plan for Iran, to be developed by the US and its allies in the region. How it works exactly is part of the final deal.
The US will unfreeze Iranian funds as talks progress.
All US and UN sanctions - including secondary - to be lifted after a final deal which will lay out a schedule.
Before a final deal and the lifting of sanctions, the US will issue waivers for Iranian oil exports, banking and other products/areas.
US removes naval blockade and starts to redeploy forces after MOU is agreed to. Pre-war maritime traffic restored within 30 days. US forces removed from near Iran within a month of a final deal.
The UN Security Council will eventually bless a final deal.

After publication, a White House official responded: “President Trump has made his redlines in negotiations clear. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, and they must turn over their enriched uranium. Any agreement must contain these items because the President will only accept a deal that puts America First.”
https://atmarquardt.substack.com/p/us-proposal-to-iran-includes-reconstruction

[Winehole23]

Iran has been attacked twice under cover of negotiations so far...this weekend would be the third time

[Winehole23]

Maybe Trump will switch things up and attack Cuba

[Blake]

Maybe Trump will switch things up and attack Cuba

Sure, why not.

"CUBA SHOULD BE OUR 51ST STATE THEY HAVE GREAT CIGARS"

[Winehole23]

Sure, why not.

"CUBA SHOULD BE OUR 51ST STATE THEY HAVE GREAT CIGARS"unless it's a turnkey operation like Venezuela, I don't think the US is ready for the likely stream of refugees

no way does Cuba become the 51st US state

[Blake]

unless it's a turnkey operation like Venezuela, I don't think the US is ready for the likely stream of refugees

no way does Cuba become the 51st US state

Oh I know. I'm not sure Trump knows. I was predicting a similar tweet like the one he had with Venezuela.

[velik_m]

Seoul says Korean tanker exits Hormuz under coordination with Iran

A South Korean tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with Iran, Seoul said Wednesday, marking the first known transit by a South Korean vessel since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February.

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun first disclosed the development during a parliamentary session, saying, “At this very moment, a South Korean tanker is exiting the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with the Iranian side.”

Cho added consultations with the Iranian authorities had been completed and that the vessel had “begun sailing yesterday and is passing through very cautiously.” He also mentioned “2 million barrels,” apparently referring to the volume of crude oil aboard the tanker.

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry later confirmed that “one South Korean tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is continuing its voyage,” suggesting the vessel had exited the high-risk waters around the strait and entered a safer maritime zone. Around 10 South Korean crew members were aboard the tanker that completed the transit, the ministry said in a message to reporters.

...



https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10742061

[Winehole23]

^^^facts on the ground are running ahead of negotiations

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiel6y4aa2gzzds2ugvel24cofdfxetnd3x4awifxggma qkhdbawru

[Winehole23]

wash, rinse, repeat

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:d7cxynfva4ff62b3ia7mclwn/bafkreibrsvxzztzjhr7zo7tmjp3a2galvkd546fi7xuuqcysl pullkdvfe

[ChumpDumper]

People are calling it the biggest ever!

https://i.imgur.com/7Uwxg0G.jpeg

[Winehole23]

has anything been signed yet?

[ChumpDumper]

Of course not. We have the vibes of concepts of a framework of a deal.

[Blake]

People are calling it the biggest ever!

https://i.imgur.com/7Uwxg0G.jpeg

A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT!

okay one of them said they might open the strait so we'll give them another 2 year extension.

BUT AFTER THAT NO MORE MR NICE GUY

unless one of them in charge says anything remotely close to saying they maybe might make a deal

[Blake]

Even Graham has had enough of TACOs

2058245974733058140

[ChumpDumper]

If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution.

This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.

Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability.

It is important we get this right.

One does have to wonder why the war was started to begin with.

Any ideas, Trump supporters?

[Winehole23]

Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of data analytics firm Bubblemaps, told CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday that a series of nine anonymous accounts had a 98 percent win rate after placing more than 80 bets on pivotal moments of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iranhttps://newrepublic.com/post/210564/donald-trump-war-iran-venezuela-insider-trading

[Winehole23]

the logic of DO SOMETHING is leading to escalation


The cycle of:

1) Threats
2) Lies of an imminent peace deal
3) Positive media coverage for that
4) Evidence of no deal, and nowhere close to Iran making concessions
5) Pretending not to care about a deal he transparently wants
6) Threats

[Winehole23]

Iran doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get a deal done


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:6szyyvptjr5yajbtumr3lwpm/bafkreie3kahbu65g75p5bs5ccvd2cg7ftfoziqzpmjbdcurhb r24as3iu4

[Winehole23]

Trump is flailing for purchase


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreia6c5taib4ogz422c4eszuhjj6b4ynpaysi442swjhli izhma4xgm

[Winehole23]

things seem to be happening today



Iran has demanded the preservation of its uranium enrichment rights in any nuclear agreement but affirmed it will adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.-Al Arabiya


Ship-tracking data show that three liquefied natural gas tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, heading to Pakistan, China and India, as well as a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China after being stranded for nearly three months.-Al Arabiya


Iran demanding transfer of highly enriched uranium to China, according to senior sources cited by Al-Arabiya.

[ChumpDumper]

Iran likely wants to drag this out to humiliate Trump personally. That will give Bibi more time to bully Trump into renewed bombing and even boots on the ground.

All to get a new JCPOA.

Black President.

[Winehole23]

KSA not signing on to the Abraham Accords yet


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreicy2nislltpifyv3djjlq72idxahsqcj3xemfcu4c4wb b5fvgve5u

[Blake]

Iran doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get a deal done

Of course not. They have a decent hand to play and Trump makes shit up. Just another day in this stupid war.

[Winehole23]

An Iranian source said the heavy gunfire heard near Bandar Abbas erupted after the IRGC targeted a vessel at sea, followed by U.S. fighter jets striking IRGC naval boats in the Gulf.

[Winehole23]

IRAN’S MEHR NEWS AGENCY SAYS THE SITUATION IN BANDAR ABBAS IS UNDER CONTROL AND THAT THE SOUNDS OF EXPLOSIONS WERE CAUSED BY DEFENSIVE ACTIVITY.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:tgw3d4hvw3x5ijrxax7lg26u/bafkreidskwhdeccwxpbu6ohu4agecy6uyvybvo34w5ykcnbw5 muznvigvi

[Winehole23]

U.S. forces carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran on Monday, CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins told Fox News.

[Winehole23]

"using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire"


Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire

[Winehole23]

i.e, attacking the other side

[Millennial_Messiah]

KSA not signing on to the Abraham Accords yet


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreicy2nislltpifyv3djjlq72idxahsqcj3xemfcu4c4wb b5fvgve5u

I say make all of Israel as the Palestinian state and put the Israeli's in Auschwitz.

[Winehole23]

Workers’ pay packets are shrinking in relation to prices in a growing number of rich countries as the energy shock unleashed by the Iran war chokes off a nascent recovery in real wages.The squeeze on consumers in the UK, US and elsewhere comes as they face sharp increases in prices for petrol and airfares triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US inflation jumped to an annual 3.8 per cent in April, while average hourly earnings increased 3.6 per cent over the year, meaning prices were rising faster than earnings for the first time in two years.“The war is roiling supply chains and will push prices higher [than] before, even if the strait were to open tomorrow,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US. https://www.ft.com/content/e126f744-3db9-4305-8871-31f83ebc4ed7?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

I say make all of Israel as the Palestinian state and put the Israeli's in Auschwitz.there are ~2 mlllion Israeli Arabs, I'm guessing you don't include them in your extermination fantasy

[Winehole23]

can't imagine what might go wrong



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:34r2ipt6f7idg5w7hnsf7afa/bafkreiaafe3j5bvgj7v2pyd4wxp3ikrfnin7y7ptqve7uj2t6 btplxzn5u

[Winehole23]

forking over billions merely to begin talks


According to reports in Iran, Tehran is standing on the fact that they will receive 12 billion dollars with the announcement of the memorandum of understanding between it and Washington.-Kan News

[Winehole23]

is this what unconditional surrender looks like?


Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is essential to any peace deal with the United States, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, said on Monday.

[Millennial_Messiah]

there are ~2 mlllion Israeli Arabs, I'm guessing you don't include them in your extermination fantasy

They're not Israelis, they're Palestinians

[Winehole23]

They're not Israelis, they're PalestiniansIsraeli citizens are citizens of Israel. Some Israeli citizens -- about 20% -- are Arabs.

Thanks for admitting you just want to kill Jews.

[Winehole23]

Iran state TV saying MOU draft reached -- no US reply as yet

[Winehole23]

all scuttlebutt, but amounts to an epochal strategic loss for the USA if accurate

could be Iran is releasing its wish list


According to Tehran, if a final deal is reached within 60 days, the MoU will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution.


Under the draft MoU, U.S. military forces will withdraw from the vicinity of Iran and lift the naval blockade. In return, Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month.


The management and route of ship traffic through the Strait will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman.

$$$


Iranian state TV stated that the MoU framework is not yet finalized, and no step will be taken by Tehran without "tangible verification."-Reuters reports citing Iranian state TV

[Winehole23]

deal not close?


The White House says that reporting in Iranian media about a draft MoU between the U.S. and Iran is untrue and a complete fabrication. "Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out," the White House said.

[ChumpDumper]

"Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out"

True enough. Nobody should believe what the White House is putting out either, unfortunately.

[Blake]

"Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out"

True enough. Nobody should believe what the White House is putting out either, unfortunately.

Sad times we live where I think Iran state media tells less lies than the WH

[Winehole23]

*moar defensive strikes*

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-carries-out-new-strikes-iran-against-military-site-official-says-2026-05-27/

[Winehole23]

Central Command is getting reports that military personnel are being targeted using commercially available location data. Few details available, but it’s a sign that the tech industry’s advertising-surveillance complex is having consequences on the battlefield.www.reuters.com/business/med... (https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/pentagon-says-us-military-personnel-are-reportedly-being-targeted-using-location-2026-05-28/)

[Winehole23]

Trump threatened Oman yesterday


"Oman will behave just like everyone else, or we'll have to blow them up"

[Winehole23]

https://www.wired.com/story/phone-data-us-soldiers-spies-nuclear-germany/

[Winehole23]

deal is on, according to unnamed US officials, subject to Trump's final approval

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreicu4oyzn22yimj6ie46jwh3o7nvjea4wdrpwugl6hb5m 5vpe7pcqi
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreicgg5dms5zzfdm7xqzccxudtnlwmukb6vofc4twhjc27 752wl2354

[Winehole23]

"we made a deal to make a deal, but neither of the dealmakers has signed on yet"

[Winehole23]

Mojtaba Khamenei did not approve the agreement, and this is one of the reasons Trump did not say 'yes'

“Actually, there is perhaps an agreement here between Arakchi, Kalibaf, Witkoff, and his people on the other side - but the senior Iranian leadership, the decision-makers, did not say 'yes'”-i24

[Blake]

"we made a deal to make a deal, but neither of the dealmakers has signed on yet"

"IT'S RUNNING ON FUMES BUT LOOKS CLOSE"

set up for the weekend before "NO MORE MR NICE GUY!!" come Monday

[Winehole23]

"IT'S RUNNING ON FUMES BUT LOOKS CLOSE"

set up for the weekend before "NO MORE MR NICE GUY!!" come Mondaysimulating deals with Iran to manipulate/soothe the market won't work when there's a shortage of physical oil -- price discovery/demand destruction will happen

[ChumpDumper]

This is pathetic.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreifuehejmpwhfyt2vykutknil6rxkf2p7ad6qffpfswph puwmjebvu

[Winehole23]

Exxon Senior VP Neil Chapman, "at the Bernstein Conference":




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifc6nry4ppng23vidwvzb5ugccwnnppbjf777lftqhoq zau6d5lxqhttps://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mmwtnytpek2o

[Winehole23]

"IT'S RUNNING ON FUMES BUT LOOKS CLOSE"

set up for the weekend before "NO MORE MR NICE GUY!!" come Mondayyesterday was the first day of this four-day pillar of Islam, Eid al-Adha

so yea, roughly corresponds with the end of this particular festival

[Winehole23]

*US defensive strikes incoming"


Iranian armed forces fired warning shots at four vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, which were attempting to pass through the strait without coordination.


The explosion heard in the city of Jam, Bushehr province, was caused by defense forces confronting hostile aircraft. Unofficial news reports indicate the destruction of an American drone.

[Winehole23]

This is pathetic.seems for now we're in the extend and pretend phase

it can't last forever

[Blake]

*US defensive strikes incoming"

The Department of War saying these are defensive strikes and this isn't a war is annoyingly hilarious and stupid.

[Blake]

seems for now we're in the extend and pretend phase

it can't last forever

It can last long enough to cause permanent economic and military damage. We've already exhausted a bunch of our weapons stockpiles that will take years to replenish.

[Winehole23]

It can last long enough to cause permanent economic and military damage. We've already exhausted a bunch of our weapons stockpiles that will take years to replenish.
expect to see more desperate lashing out

they don't know when they've already lost

[Winehole23]

the economic damage will be extensive regardless

practically speaking it may not be until 2027 at the soonest that normal shipping volumes of extractive products and distillates will begin to resume in the Persian Gulf, assuming a stable diplomatic/political resolution can be reached beforehand

[Winehole23]

one paradox of intention is that Trump despite his corrupt will is hastening the transition from carbon-based energy sources to cheaper electrification and batteries

[Blake]

one paradox of intention is that Trump despite his corrupt will is hastening the transition from carbon-based energy sources to cheaper electrification and batteries

And if it works he'll take credit. Trump Solar coming soon.

[Winehole23]

And if it works he'll take credit. Trump Solar coming soon.Oil companies are getting richer now, win-win

[Winehole23]

It is not clear that all the parties are working from the same draft agreement, one diplomat involved in the process said.

[Winehole23]

the US has attacked Iran twice under cover of negotiations and assassinated the previous supreme leader


Communications between the sides have been frustratingly slow, U.S. officials said, because senior Iranian officials are communicating via couriers and the country’s supreme leader is in hiding.-NYT

[Winehole23]

Obama unfroze $1.2 billion of Iranian money and got a verifiable nuclear deal without a war or a global energy supply crunch

We're already in a war Trump started, an oil/gas supply crunch is unavoidable and Trump's reported sweetener for Iran is ~150x bigger


U.S.–Iran draft deal includes a $300 billion investment fund for Iran. Tehran wanted reparations for war damage. Washington rebranded it as an international investment vehicle. Witkoff and Kushner floated the idea, pitching Tehran real estate and a broader fund as deal sweeteners.-NYT

[Winehole23]

the more Trump dithers, the greater the economic and political pain will be

something similar is true for the Iranian regime, but its struggle is existential, Iran has no reason to trust Trump will honor his own deal

[Winehole23]

It can last long enough to cause permanent economic and military damage. We've already exhausted a bunch of our weapons stockpiles that will take years to replenish.tank bottoms are just a few weeks away, according to the Exxon Senior VP

it's been compared to living month to month, temporary disruptions can lead to chronic shortages if not reversed quickly

[Winehole23]

like say, a CAT 5 hurricane hitting htown or NO

[Winehole23]

or escalation in the Persian Gulf

[Winehole23]

tank bottoms are just a few weeks away, according to the Exxon Senior VP

it's been compared to living month to month, temporary disruptions can lead to chronic shortages if not reversed quicklyTrump touting energy conservation is another predictable reversal, tbh

[Winehole23]

just spitballing, as one does online

2060648853573861577

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiha5ix2bxuvqvq26hqmjzimxflk5rimz2w5asgxfbf76 bhnsvzwr4

[Winehole23]

if this isn't made up bullshit ("a source familiar with the matter told Iran International") we did regime change


Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has submitted an official letter of resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader, a source familiar with the matter told Iran International.
In the letter sent on Sunday, Pezeshkian stressed that the president and the government have effectively been excluded from major and vital decision-making processes in the country, and that the vacuum created by this situation has enabled hardline factions within the IRGC to take control of affairs, the source said.


Pezeshkian added that under such circumstances he is unable to run the government and carry out his legal responsibilities, and for that reason has requested to step down immediately.
It is not yet clear whether Mojtaba Khamenei will accept the president's resignation, but the contents of the letter point to a deep and unprecedented rift at the highest levels of power.


https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605312204

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:uf6xe5actjzjqqglrr5fvu7j/bafkreihn4vkwpne6d2ijo2ubl3yyxdi7v2yhhpks7godlqtd3 h4pj5jvvi

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif4zwh72m4ucvqeubpsx6tqjflk5ol3uks7jdqkxk5lq wn3rclwse


the Iranians sense Mr. Trump’s deep reluctance to restart combat operations that are deeply unpopular in the United States, and most Iran experts say they expect Tehran to try to stretch the negotiations for months or years -- as they have with past administrations.https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/us/politics/trump-iran-stalemate-ukraine-gaza.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

this was in response to Iran shooting missiles and drones at a US base in Kuwait

ceasefire still good?


DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — US military says it launched airstrikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after Tehran shot down MQ-1 Predator drone.

[velik_m]

Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to ‘completely’ block Strait of Hormuz: State media

Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the U.S. through intermediaries, and Tehran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, Iran’s state-affiliated news outlet Tasnim said Monday.

The report, in a translated post on the social media site Telegram, homed in on Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah.

“No dialogue will take place” until Israel fully withdraws from occupied areas in Lebanon and stops all attacks in both Lebanon and Gaza, per Tasnim.

“Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters,” the report said.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html

[Winehole23]

Iran signals it may stop exchanging messages with mediators

Signs point to escalation


Additionally, the Resistance Front and Iran have resolved to pursue the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the activation of other fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as part of their agenda to punish the Zionists and their supporters.-Tasnimhttps://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-stopping-message-exchanges-with-us-may-block-hormuz-tasnim-news-agency-2026-06-01/

[Winehole23]

moving troops out


USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, carrying the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, has shifted from the CENTCOM area of responsibility to the Indo Pacific.

[Winehole23]

"prospects of an agreement to negotiate"


* RUBIO SAYS: THERE IS A PROSPECT THAT IRAN HAS AGREED TO NEGOTIATE ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR PROGRAM THAT THEY PREVIOUSLY REFUSED TO MENTION IN DICUSSIONS

[Ball Buster]

Thomas Massie, 50k likes...


The more Netanyahu prevents the war with Iran from ending, the more obvioius it becomes that he convinced Trump to start it.

https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/2061783761017057484

[Winehole23]

talks going good?


KUWAITI ARMY SAYS AIR DEFENCES CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING HOSTILE MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACKS

[Winehole23]

Iranian sources report that Iran is retaliating to a small American airstrike on Qeshm Island that took place about an hour ago, as well as the U.S. interception of an Iranian oil tanker

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7mzhepjvz65dzfuapfusodxg/bafkreianybnbtzrlnjhkarvygsxkkf7fybve5ct4iu2fwsb57 vzovdubci

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2awsew56svs4bona4lj2tj67/bafkreihssvnjw43kkbwfkdl2b5munnn4t2ilqkotrhtnapwfu 4t4wgnoa4

[Winehole23]

still a ceasefire?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3bqvbzpwgi5mqeqs6qlym26j/bafkreigjfnqkd34cyivco7jlwlmdsnvgpwldvhnsx7d34fm4z k63ufylpi

[Winehole23]

more US and Iranian defensive attacks, I take it

[Winehole23]

"during the ceasefire"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oqexhdqbizq24v6ikjhhig2h/bafkreib4wzhuynxefmdwzplfu2xz6n5owxgiz4b7qyaixt7os g36t6mha4

[Winehole23]

"ignition of the aggressor's fortresses"


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreian6i2wpi3h3qqgkjr4vbu4ypf73c6o6z7oftqw2j3j4 6ieihrjzq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lm4eq2cftwbnrmzkzowigpt7/bafkreigqcjiv6ywqcpop2vmlv5gsl5gc2sx3yndy42qph35fi z6oaqacwu

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:njhuquor23vkkeamltaxdsnz/bafkreidohbytfufwxy4yag72olcqvzxwm3ncmebcr5nqtwv73 6d67cmocm


Reuters: U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES BACKS RESOLUTION CURBING TRUMP'S IRAN WAR POWERS

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eclio37ymobqex2ncko63h4r/bafkreiaaebqhuukaltz2wj6oknen54jgbneoah2m4wdooq7mv e3pxwdmbu


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nx2hxdrsv3mivqwwvkq7xlqx/bafkreigqht6gj7w5lgv2tqtletv6urw65bjfsujlcqilo65jo ckkin42yy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiexr6fixmigx4rc3q3f2gyiewan2wwjqsnlpe7vtipm3 yhn6osuam


TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR

[Winehole23]

The Iran war stopped being abstract: Iranian missiles and drones gutted Kuwait International Airport's Terminal 1, US bases in Kuwait took confirmed hangar hits, Iran's navy claims it "targeted" a US destroyer in the Gulf of Oman — and the same afternoon the House voted 215-208 to halt the war, the first congressional rebuke since it began. Markets ran the other risk-off playbook: Bitcoin broke $63k with $1.8B liquidated, Broadcom cratered on an AI-chip miss, and the ECB confirmed gold has overtaken Treasuries as the top global reserve asset. SPR sits at a 2004 low while the strait stays shut.https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-06-04

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif5gptfrt77uiwuydiagnxcflrf5vunygo2ig6d2ayoq b4ahvzaaq


Iranian officials — perhaps calculating that the Republican president is reluctant to restart the bombardment after burning through key weapons systems — are showing no signs they’ll give in to new demands.https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-war-nuclear-deal-f6c5007b28e596e562c88b93ee785d91

[Winehole23]

Larry Johnson thinks has confirmation that Iran already has a nuclear bomb and that the US believes it


No, I have not been given access to NSA Sigint, but I have confirmed that the phone call last week between Iranian President Pezeshkian and Pakistani Prime Minister Shariff was over a non-secure line. I am reliably informed that this was done deliberately by the Iranians and Pakistanis — i.e., the Iranians and Pakistanis were counting on the Americans and the Israelis to be listening in. The key part of the conversation between Pezeshkian and Shariff was this:



President Masoud Pezeshkian communicated a formally structured, three-step strategic ultimatum if US strikes continued:
1. Immediate Withdrawal from the ongoing nuclear peace talks.

2. Total Abandonment of the prospective Nuclear Treaty framework.

3. The Detonation of a Nuclear Device on Iranian soil—executed not as a weapon of war, but as an undeniable demonstration of sovereign capability and ultimate control over the escalation ladder.


When Marco Rubio was called an hour or so later by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, and received the same message, the White House knew that the information was legitimate. While the US intelligence community probably cannot confirm that Iran actually does have a functioning nuke, the Pakistanis believe the Iranians do. The intercepted chat between Pezeshkian and Shariff, followed by Rubio’s conversation with Ishaq Dar, convinced Trump and his advisors that Iran was not making a hollow threat.


Now we know why there has been a dramatic change in Trump’s rhetoric towards Iran… Hell, he downplayed yesterday’s missile dust up in the Persian Gulf, which left Kuwait’s International Airport on fire from an errant PAC3 Patriot missile.


Pepe and I caught some hell from skeptics after we reported on the Pakistani claim that Iran was threatening to detonate a nuclear device on Iranian soil if the US continued its strikes and did not rein in Israel’s attacks on Beirut. But we ain’t the ones eating crow or wiping egg off of our faces. Robert Barnes, a former Trump lawyer, during a Wednesday podcast with Mario Nawfal said that he confirmed with a Trump White House source that our information is correct.
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/confirmed-donald-trump-believes-iran

[Winehole23]

oil industry warnings



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:bbp2b224lro3bfnzcqwwnkfo/bafkreictdvqxhrdcrdqe2txroagxnaw7kgmem4kpj4do6bexs 7pmgmom6ahttps://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/04/oil-price-spike-white-house-hormuz-00949435

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreifkakr37qe757v5vp5kgtjzouzjlhdhonr3umdaxijiu xwkkbeim4

[Ball Buster]

Larry Johnson thinks has confirmation that Iran already has a nuclear bomb and that the US believes it

https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/confirmed-donald-trump-believes-iran

https://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/good_im_glad_donald_glover.gif

[Winehole23]

ok, you're glad

[Ball Buster]

It's the only way Israel would stop attacking them, and there would be peace as a result. Same way as N. Korea.

[Winehole23]

lowering expectations: "winning on paper"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dul5tuiyjrys5rxxhdyxwaal/bafkreidjl3uavobqfyeiqv54j7ti66hxywjf557idulq6hjry dj5conlni

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiexr6fixmigx4rc3q3f2gyiewan2wwjqsnlpe7vtipm3 yhn6osuam

Oh it must be near the weekend for Trump's end of war deal in place declaration

[Blake]

lowering expectations: "winning on paper"

:lol or the 3rd way, just declare victory, make a trophy and give it to yourself and move on to the next failure

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreihbgzskyfdzs4miehecdpsxlpxaq32x6j3nq6jnuin43 lapnxceeu

[Winehole23]

Saudi state TV touting "final stage" negotiations


A proposed mechanism to release part of Iran’s frozen funds remains a key obstacle in the final stages of a potential agreement between Tehran and Washington, a source familiar with the matter told Al Arabiya on Thursday.

According to the source, discussions are continuing over how part of the frozen Iranian funds would be handled, adding that the agreement is in its final stages.

The source also said that US President Donald Trump has informed mediators that he refuses to release any funds to Iran before the agreement is signed.

One proposal currently under discussion would see a special fund established to deposit the frozen Iranian assets, the source added.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/06/04/usiran-deal-in-final-stages-but-frozen-funds-mechanism-remains-key-hurdle-source

[Winehole23]

"finalized plans"

Saudis stirring hope about the war's end


The UK and France have finalized plans to lead a multinational mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz within days of an agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the waterway, according to people familiar with the matter.

Shipping in one of the world’s most critical trade corridors remains at a near-standstill with the US and the Islamic Republic clashing in the Arabian Gulf earlier this week amid fraught efforts to agree to an interim deal to restore maritime traffic to prewar levels.

Military planners in multiple countries are at an advanced stage in their plans to join efforts to rid the strait of naval mines laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said five people familiar with the talks.https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/06/04/uk-and-france-finalize-postwar-hormuz-mine-clearing-mission

[velik_m]

"finalized plans"

Saudis stirring hope about the war's end

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/06/04/uk-and-france-finalize-postwar-hormuz-mine-clearing-mission

Weekend must be approaching.

[Winehole23]

Iranian source close to the negotiating team rejected the Al-Arabiya report, according to which Tehran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country to be agreed upon by the parties.-Fars News

[Winehole23]

as one does during final stage negotiations


* IRAN'S NAVY SAYS IT FIRED WARNING SHOTS AT U.S. DESTROYERS IN GULF OF OMAN -- STATE MEDIA

[Winehole23]

It's the only way Israel would stop attacking them, and there would be peace as a result. Same way as N. Korea.if it were true, maybe

[Winehole23]

*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN QUARTER-POINT FED RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END

[Winehole23]

wars are very expensive


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:pu76nca4whbkwubc5kokvil6/bafkreidnj7677gq5liw4gcqlo4zxfyyve6ct3sphrzlm7hqut odgi6ahue

[Winehole23]

30 yr back above 5%, too

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gftip5r3dmyojn5lat333pp5/bafkreiejg4rcxtdhkrasqcib2caerld47rimvohj2w4gnpp54 4aisvsacu

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiaqbkkn3bjnpendcjnacvqpyabdsb3afzekeyruqnlji juilfylre

[Winehole23]

Fitch's outlook appears to be very sanguine, oversupply starting in September


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:yaesmowgwnwub2v5o4ibeinu/bafkreig52jw3gog5yw5re4vq3lcmpmnk7meglrg2cnw4hnpu7 vkuuemwgmhttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/oil-market-will-return-to-oversupply-once-hormuz-reopens-05-06-2026

[Winehole23]

For decades, the conventional narrative has been one in which renewables have been criticized for intermittency issues, whereas fossil fuels were the ones to provide energy security.
The Iran war and protracted closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz have reframed this debate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-renewables-oil-gas.html

[Winehole23]

new economic sanctions

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0524

[Ball Buster]

if it were true, maybe

"Pro Israel" Winehole, disagrees. Not surprising.

[Winehole23]

"Pro Israel" Winehole, disagrees. Not surprising.not sure how you got there, I partially agreed with you

[CosmicCowboy]

The "negotiations".



Do you believe Trump that 'We are close to a great deal" or the Iranians "we aren't even negotiating based on the preconditions"

I tend to abelieve the Iranians.

[ChumpDumper]

Trump's position only gets worse as the world starts running out of its reserves. He's got a few weeks left to surrender or actually invade. There's nothing else to do.

[Winehole23]

well, maybe one other thing

[ChumpDumper]

Nuke 'em?

Sure. Can't put anything past him-- especially since he's dying.

[Blake]

Trump's position only gets worse as the world starts running out of its reserves. He's got a few weeks left to surrender or actually invade. There's nothing else to do.

I think he'll claim victory thru surrender

[Blake]

The "negotiations".



Do you believe Trump that 'We are close to a great deal" or the Iranians "we aren't even negotiating based on the preconditions"

I tend to abelieve the Iranians.

Both things can be lies

[velik_m]

Trump says Iran has not agreed to a deal to end the war because ‘they’re strong, they’re proud’ (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-iran-not-agreed-deal-strong-re-proud-rcna348511)

[Winehole23]

wonder who's leaking this now, gotta think stuff like this goes on all the time

could be Trump's priorities and Israel's are not totally in synch in this war


The Pentagon is increasingly concerned about Israel ramping up its spying on the U.S., recently raising the counterintelligence threat level from America’s top ally in the Middle East to the highest level, according to two U.S. officials and one former U.S. official.

The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency in recent weeks issued the new counterintelligence threat assessment amid rising tensions between Israel and the U.S. over the way forward in the war with Iran (https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran-war), the officials said. They said the DIA posted an internal message, viewed by one of the current officials, that raised the level for Israel to “critical.”

The designation stems from concerns within the Pentagon that Israel is making a particular effort to surveil top U.S. officials to get information on the Trump administration’s internal deliberations and decision-making on the conflicts in the Middle East, the officials said.

The DIA assessment includes a seven-page document and features a chart, according to one of the current U.S. officials. The document says the assessment of Israel is that its ability to conduct human espionage and technical collection is at a ”critical level,” according to the official.

It also identifies a series of specific incidents that heightened U.S. concerns, the official said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-raised-threat-israeli-spying-us-highest-level-sources-say-rcna348565

[Winehole23]

Israel bombs Beirut, Iran offers to bomb Israel tonight


The spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, Ibrahim Rezaei, threatens after the attack in Dahiya: "We will respond in a decisive and painful manner to the attack by the Zionist regime in Dahiya. This mad dog must be educated and returned to its place. Tonight, look to the skies over the occupied territories."

[Winehole23]

lies so easily, but the NYT will never say so out loud



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:t4i3a4fawuzge3dsw2i2h2fw/bafkreibvuyxyv34xny5y6to6vta7ja74shqrbyyd6onu4lams rny3wa7ua

[Winehole23]

Iran fires multiple missile barrages at Northern Israel

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-ceasefire-hezbollah-israel-28d80744e192ae0d5cce73a5a08af906

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ilyxejcmhg2qwqomgu2umi5v/bafkreic7wjoxuuftxc2sdg5ovkn3j2ocbi43n7ebfrezmdugc tva4odxfy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7i5o66xiz4hbgf344q2fad2r/bafkreidnhlc54rjkpsjxrybnkfp3pgn64oqwoe7rwos2qcxlg l7htwtvk4


I call the shots. I call all the shots. Netanyahu doesn't call the shots

[Winehole23]

Houthis attack Israel


According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israel has temporarily closed its airspace due to launches of missiles from Iran and Houthi-controlled territories in Yemen.

[Winehole23]

the neighborhood alert map


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:fphj62hdaagffntkjocmrebv/bafkreia3rhybdqkjdq3uucfxramxvblkohkfqsvkqwh4yqesw xxts7m6be

[Winehole23]

A senior Israeli official told Channel 14: "We are on the verge of several days of fighting against the Iranians and their proxies in the Middle East."

[Winehole23]

2063922009013166455

[Winehole23]

sounds partial here


Yemen's Houthi rebels announced Monday that they were reinstating what they described as a naval blockade on Israel and closing the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping, while also claiming responsibility for missile attacks launched earlier in the day.https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk7z1nzmx#google_vignette

[Winehole23]

makes him look weak, tbh

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ilyxejcmhg2qwqomgu2umi5v/bafkreic6ydevlog4umpw5ejyxdzif3ecm2ffkggbqsjfwvk6t jgzzv34f4

[velik_m]

Trump says US will "declare total victory" over Iran in next two weeks

...
“We’re negotiating now, and they want to make a very good deal. They’re willing to give us everything, they’re willing to give us no nuclear weapon,” Trump said.

“I think we are winning that battle, but you’re really going to win it over the next two weeks when we declare total victory, it’ll be a total victory, it’ll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down,” Trump said.

...



https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-lebanon?post-id=cmq5reahf00003b6r8usj40dy

[Winehole23]

It’s been more than two months since President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, saying at the time that the two sides were close to a deal.

Trump said on social media (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030) on April 7 that they were “very far along” but needed two weeks for “the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.” He concluded by saying that “it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution.”

There was no resolution, of course. But Trump has nonetheless spent the two months since then continuing to suggest a deal was right around the corner. A lot.

Including the period before the ceasefire, he’s done it at least 37 times. That’s the number of times he’s said directly — in social media posts, public appearances and phone calls with the media — that a deal was nigh or claimed Iran was desperate to cut one.https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/politics/times-trump-iran-deal-close

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2n4iu4hqkrrbuclvdzjk4jbn/bafkreih6kxcy6iraeaoemmavf426ovndwqovmvj2ca37eeeqi s63bzvlli

[Blake]

Sounds like he's given up on bombing them and will just keep repeating the same "almost done" line for the foreseeable future

[Winehole23]

Sounds like he's given up on bombing them and will just keep repeating the same "almost done" line for the foreseeable futureTrump is still caught in an escalation trap and still has impulse control issues...but I agree he is looking like a weak coward right now

[velik_m]

Trump says U.S. must ‘respond’ after Iran shoots down helicopter over Hormuz Strait

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. will “respond” as he accused Iran of shooting down an Apache helicopter that was patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz.

The two pilots involved in the attack “are safe and uninjured,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.”

Trump did not say what form the U.S. response would take. But his post signaled that conflict with Iran was about to ramp up once again, despite him claiming hours earlier that a deal with Tehran could be reached as soon as this week.

The two sides are in the final stages of a “very, very good deal” that will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons and fully reopen the Hormuz Strait “immediately upon signing,” Trump said late Monday night after leaving an NBA Finals game in New York City.

...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-iran-helicopter-hormuz-strait.html

[Blake]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-iran-helicopter-hormuz-strait.html

Back to "no more Mr Nice Guy" mode.

[velik_m]

Tehran targets Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after U.S. strikes Iranian assets

Iran targeted several Gulf countries after the U.S. launched attacks on the Middle Eastern nation earlier on Tuesday stateside.

Jordan’s military said Wednesday local time that it had intercepted five Iranian missiles, according to state media, while Bahrain sounded alarms and Kuwait activated its air defenses to intercept “hostile aerial targets.”

U.S. forces on Tuesday evening launched strikes against Iran “in response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter,” U.S. Central Command said.

The “self-defense strikes” are “a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression,” Centcom said in an X post.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-iran-helicopter-hormuz-strait.html

[Winehole23]

Back to "no more Mr Nice Guy" mode.


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreien2qyjfyhlr4o5brw5l3r6ub7bmd7goccxagjp5chya yhmjpwzj4

[Winehole23]

DJIA to open 400-500 points down

[Winehole23]

"Praise be to Allah"


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:2whlowi5jjjqrdrrj4lxh2lx/bafkreihu45qy72ewz2khoqis7bbl3yezwbzigmbrjjhr7jjoa pkv7dzsrq

[Winehole23]

it's the 90 day anniversary of this whopper


https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/image/webp;base64,UklGRkIhAABXRUJQVlA4IDYhAABwtQCdASrGAQ oBPp1Gnkulo6MlJtDLKLATiWNuvUWuVmq/3NSZhT8fwL2zz0 unU0miEvY09SW4n51r01 cz1Xno5dNjj9vBfQ79RmxXN/cT j60 52bQCn/s2wmuXnhv Lz1fXZGS1vDxnJnLsW5DLewPb63VLhUQtqf6Ohkvmm qYerdqIBms1ms1ms1np/X6YhhBP5 SqPWTdQfgxoX8eVHiRQ2IlIguUhxkwijhoF1pQadW5fL/yfE/GkIjpj4/hJf2n6xlMVKrpiZl950ios6amiOQl1ttOwDKbQHnL9MyKHLsDc 4/H1P0/nwfB96FLnP64/iIHshVwlv0iC3fcecLu asVVLgXIObDnOGUPmTfEwaAQo jLux/0PJ9iENB6Iv5JxrEJu/g42aaXTnMlUj2i7 KnW6TUvPw37RmeS2OikoN9d/NEy8UjKJtWho0/MAl7993AIyfyLWlwi3GG2n Pj7oF2qliPcxHDivOP8/iALmyZF2k5rlkMCzjrNhDLF9hpCK08i5260N9QZgCiHz/zIe9FPYc8HCQGz0Z/Rh zjx0y/L4QvOX2aT5wqX24 ThErho8Ii 33IxseaBEJbLNCbM4gpbeG DT2aFpdwQSMT3Ne9EHT6Ne6Ju7e7sPEgztxhdCqjMzwJ gMeaDNVy Lq4jVC27U4ZEXyEnNEHUDOvOSwVbcC1LZZ56fpDfOBVcHhZDVx keW5KFtEu5eBWKsL6HCgdI2bXj69BpRtthXpOKKvSHCk/ldAbkkRHaopQA/Q7ceAgJn2hFqxidTw68CrwM2p7Tj9JQ 1HDUtfF49Zj08w0rEOOe1UQcCvM4R6z6kl16fDwviaCEUTebNt 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"Operation Epic Fury — is that a great name? It's only a great name if you win. And we've won. Let me tell you, we've won. You never like to say too early you won — we won. We won. In the first hour it was over. We won."

[CosmicCowboy]

So how the fuck did a $30,000 shahad drone with a top straight line speed of 115 miles an hour take down a fucking 100 million dollar Apache attack helicopter???? Somebody is lying.

[Winehole23]

So how the fuck did a $30,000 drone with a top straightline speed of 115 miles an hour take down a fucking 100 million dollar Apache attack helicopter???? Somebody is lying.yeah, a lot of people are wondering about that

Iran denied the shootdown

[Winehole23]

for a few hours Trump acted like it was no big deal

apparently a sitdown with Hegseth and Caine changed his mind

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kjjhbsc3pp3vkqjsivk6z2yd/bafkreih3pnqzhzcgxzvissl4cjg665ulhcpwhbw2diocifit4 6ussnbcjy

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah that jump was anticipated. Market is already pricing in two rate hikes this year. Expect to hear the dreaded "transitory" word.

[Winehole23]

"Praise be to Allah"


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pgakvm4ufmskztrpynyr77nw/bafkreic4ej3nxvxlzk34c6vuzsm3qv7d7nlhbrb4wae5jfteh 2hctwgun4https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-praise-allah-again-by-june-30

[Winehole23]

"strategic insolvency"


The war in the Persian Gulf has created global shock waves—by roiling the world economy, unsettling U.S. alliances, creating epic disruptions to freedom of navigation, and bringing the nuclear nonproliferation order to a tipping point. But one of the most important and potentially destabilizing implications of this conflict has been to throw U.S. strategic insolvency into harsh relief.


The war has featured impressive tactical feats by the United States and Israel, such as the killing of dozens of high-ranking Iranian officials in the opening hours of the fight. The capabilities on display over Tehran—and U.S. President Donald Trump’s penchant for military risk-taking—have surely been sobering for Washington’s adversaries in Moscow and Beijing. Yet the war has had more ambiguous, sometimes damaging, strategic outcomes. It has also caused an alarming depletion of key U.S. weapons stockpiles while ripping capabilities away from other dangerous theaters.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/09/iran-war-trump-china-united-states-military-defense-weapons-geopolitics-strategy-taiwan/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6rjf42vsf2k77ywnxunjcnjd/bafkreid7rdite2fwmmtcobjfngznlrjzfozedercdmrqcqw3r lkx7mtaoq

[Winehole23]

INDIA SUMMONS US DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION IN DELHI OVER STRIKE ON TANKER OFF OMAN COAST WHERE THREE INDIANS ARE MISSING - SOURCES

[Winehole23]

so like, what's the moral argument against Iran striking the continental US at this point?

the US started the war, has struck the Iranian mainland repeatedly, killing thousands of civilians, and has ignored repeated warnings that continued attacks will expand the theatre of war


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/bafkreig223oolex7z5jfcxcilo4box2kyc6wcxojv56lzximb p44kbbi6a

[Winehole23]

it doesn’t really keep me up at night, but hosting the world cup, leaving your DNI office vacant and having a incompetent drunk running the FBI all while escalating a war against an adversary known for using asymmetric tactics sure does line up a lot of dominos

[Winehole23]

famous last words


Vice President JD Vance (https://www.usatoday.com/search/?q=jd+vance) says he has faith that President Donald Trump (https://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/donald-trump/) will keep the Iran war (https://www.usatoday.com/search/?q=iran+war) from becoming a "quagmire" the United States is ensnared in for years to come with no mission, objective or clearly stated purpose.

"I feel extremely confident that we are not going to be talking about America's involvement in Iran even a year down the road, but certainly not years down the road," Vance told USA TODAY in an exclusive telephone interview Monday, June 8.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/06/08/jd-vance-iran-war-trump-exclusive-interview/90463538007/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:a6jhwq7v5rtibtb5kt5sefeq/bafkreiht6pznm5rjnac6ksoebtqpxboldg5mmz5byhsnjjcf7 xullh5a5q

[Winehole23]

June 11, 2026


Location: Jordan, countrywide
Event: Reports indicate missiles, drones, or rockets are in Jordanian airspace. Seek overhead cover and shelter in place immediately. Remain indoors and pay attention to local announcements and alerts.
The U.S. Embassy in Jordan will continue to review the situation and provide additional information as needed.


https://jo.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-jordan-11-june-2026/

[velik_m]

US and Iran exchange strikes across Middle East for second day in a row

The US and Iran have exchanged strikes across the Middle East for a second consecutive day, further straining an already shaky ceasefire agreed between the two countries in April.

US Central Command (Centcom) said it had completed a wave of "self-defense strikes" targeting military, surveillance and radar sites in southern Iran.

The attack came hours after President Donald Trump vowed US forces would hit Iran "hard", and that Tehran had taken "too long to make a deal" to permanently end the war.

In response, Iran launched a round of strikes targeting US military assets in countries across the region.

US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait came under Iranian fire for a second day in a row, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it fired ballistic missiles at a US command centre in Jordan, according to Iranian state media.

In the latest flare-up, the IRGC also said it had hit two oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media reported, although there was no immediate confirmation of the strike.

That came after Iranian state media reported that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely closed to all type of vessel". Centcom, however, said "commercial ships are continuing to transit in and out of the Strait of Hormuz".

...


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyp9v0e93o

How long before ground invasion becomes part of the this "ceasefire"?

[Winehole23]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyp9v0e93o

How long before ground invasion becomes part of the this "ceasefire"?maybe not long


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreifddxhqyqtuj5m4374fianeiwnwz5x52dxqb6vsh2we4 b5lc74pey

[Winehole23]

Trump does not btw give a shit about oppressed Iranians

Chain refoulement is morally depraved and technically illegal in the USA


The Trump administration is preparing to deport nearly two dozen people to the Central African Republic on Thursday, including at least two Iranian women who had sought refuge in the United States, according to lawyers and a government official.

The flight, which is also expected to include migrants from Afghanistan and Syria, would mark the first such deportation to the Central African Republic, a deeply impoverished country that has been plagued by conflict. The country is so dangerous that the U.S. State Department states on its website (https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/central-african-republic.html), “do not travel for any reason.”

At least some of the migrants have received court orders in the United States prohibiting their deportation to their home countries because of the threat of persecution or torture, their lawyers said.https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/world/africa/deportations-central-african-republic-migrants-iran-women.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

[Winehole23]

Robert Barnes on Judge Napolitano's pod

Barnes defended Alex Jones against Sandy Hook parents and was also Kyle Rittenhouse's defense lawyer



Napolitano: Do we know how Trump came to decide to invade Iran?

Barnes: Yeah, from the people that I’ve talked to, the president’s decision-making has changed and this was in the buildup prior to the going into Iran, but from people that were around the president on a regular basis communicated that, you know, the president that used to be art of the deal, always plan for the worst, expect for the best, the the positive thinking tethered by a form of sort of hardcore realism, the the president who loved getting like 55 different second opinions on any topic or subject, the you know, that president, the president who was uber rational and uh and hardcore in making practical and tactical decisions was mostly gone by the by December, by late winter. It had been slipping and eroding since late summer of 2025.

And now you had someone that almost the way they described him thought like a toddler that were very emotionally driven. would confabulate constantly, didn’t like to hear second opinions or even second guesses what he was thinking at a given moment, would get mad and enraged. Even people like Bessent and others would walk around on eggshells around him because his temper was out of control.

You sort of saw it in some of the social filters.

But the most disturbing aspect was the confabulation they were describing that they would tell him something and then he would somehow forget it the next day. and not so much out of forgetfulness, but if he didn’t want to hear something, he decided it wasn’t true and even if he heard it and was told it many, many times over. Vice versa, if he wanted to believe something, he believed it was true even when his top advisers told him it was not true.

So, in the buildup to the Iran war that people like Vice President, there was literally nobody on board the the war to begin with uh within the US administration. Everybody voiced skepticism and doubt. Even uh Secretary of State Rubio voiced out.

Napolitano: Even Even Pete Hegseth

Barnes: Even Pete Pete Hegseth voiced out, then he became a big war champion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdoNyGGEztI

[Winehole23]

(((the lobby)))

the big antisemitism shaped problem isn't partisan, but is getting noticeably louder on the right


Napolitano: Who runs American foreign policy, Donald Trump or Marco Rubio?


Barnes: That’s a good question. I would say predominantly it’s the Israel lobby at the moment, but not alone. And then Trump’s emotional, psychological whims.

[Winehole23]

Robert Barnes on Nima Alkhorshid's pod

tl;dr

Trump is a fear-addled dementia patient



dumbest president we’ve ever had in his second term as as well as the most corrupt in American political history, which is saying something uh in the recent era. Trump decides to go back in and reescalate, and he’s talking about doing it again today….. When you can’t do either one of those deals, you’re literally deal incapable….


That’s why Joe Kent, I and some others with friends and allies on the anti-war side in the administration have been advocating from day one, just get Trump to get out.


He’s never going to do a reasonable deal. He’s not capable of doing a reasonable deal because he is so fear riddled..


This is why I keep telling people he can’t make a good decisions. His decision-making process is completely broken. The Trump, anyone has known from any time before, is gone.


It’s just gone. And so he’s he thinks like a toddler, like it’s two-year-old level thinking. And the consequence of that is what he will do is he will convince himself that the bad thing can’t happen. So when he when he changes direction for emotional reasons, he then rationalizes his decision…


He’s driven entirely by fear. Fear of humiliation, fear of embarrassment, fear of comparison to Obama, fear of criticism from the Fox News crowd and the Israel lobby, fear of being humiliated on the global stage if Iran actually does develop and show off that they have nukes. It’s just fear, fear, fear, fear, fear of getting so crushed in the midterms that he gets impeached and removed from the presidency. That’s all that’s motivating him. But whatever short term, whatever fear short-term dominates, he rationalizes and excuses and justifies to himself that the other fears on the other side of the ledger will never come true. And it takes massive efforts to break through to him.


That’s also why you see him flip-flop within a day, within a minute, within an hour. That’s different emotions, different fears dominate at different times. In my view is their best hope for the US, the world is a Trump exit not a Trump deal because he’s not capable of a deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFZb3MWFY4w

[Blake]

maybe not long

BUT DON'T CALL IT WAR

[Winehole23]

up 1.1% in May

Trump keeps mashing buttons that make prices go up


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:dzezcmpb3fhcpns4n4xm4ur5/bafkreihs5pa2lnln7t4jct5lkokm4gsilpgss6wfkurak2abk bhg7fi6dy

[Winehole23]

The Producer Price Index, a closely watched gauge of wholesale inflation, rose 1.1% in May, lifting the annual rate to 6.5%, its highest in more than three years, a new Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Thursday.https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/economy/us-ppi-wholesale-inflation-may

[Winehole23]

letting a sundowning, emotionally unstable man like Trump make war decisions and front out diplomacy is epically dumb


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oqexhdqbizq24v6ikjhhig2h/bafkreiaqrzot6byxordfpubcmze6arbp63s4mobf4eetqjxr6 377bzjuye

[Blake]

3.....2....1.... before Trump will say he had good talks with some rando and a deal, greater than any deal ever, is imminent.

[Blake]

Trump cancels US strikes in Iran and suggests agreement is close

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-hnk

Death, taxes and Iranian TACOs.

[CosmicCowboy]

And Iran immediately announces they dont know what the fuck he is talking about. There is no agreed "memorandum of understanding".

[ChumpDumper]

And Iran immediately announces they dont know what the fuck he is talking about. There is no agreed "memorandum of understanding".

YES THERE IS

2065135618456248599

https://x.com/VeraMBergen/status/2065135618456248599

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ipxy3umdbi5t3omqq3ah2ffe/bafkreibd5btoxo3ctyar66lx56lzgy2lg5nmqk2ql26h2xqp3 npd57tbhm

[velik_m]

Korea slashes jet fuel exports to U.S. amid Iran war uncertainties, redirects flows to Japan on higher margins

Korea's exports of petroleum products to the United States have contracted sharply since the outbreak of the Iran war, as domestic oil refiners redirect cargo to Asian markets amid heightened geopolitical risk.

The supply shift could drive up U.S. airfares, marking a stark departure from historical trends. Historically, the United States has relied on Korea for roughly 70 percent of its total jet fuel imports—a figure that climbs as high as 85 percent in regions like the West Coast.

Korea shipped a total of 6.26 million barrels of petroleum products to the United States in March and April this year, a 40 percent drop from the same period a year earlier, according to the latest data from Korea National Oil Corporation.

...



https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/business/korea-slashes-jet-fuel-exports-to-us-amid-iran-war-uncertainties-redirects-flows-to-japan-on-higher-margins/12699208

[Winehole23]

the US is socially and politically unprepared for how pissed off the rest of the world will be at us

[Winehole23]

Thumbing their nose at grandpa

Trofimov is the WSJ chief foreign affairs correspondent


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreihv3g6vpd5v37jozjo3dplaa2xuavzujs2nsib5ipr54 ezxdnvcmy

[Winehole23]

seems to mirror Trump's lies about a done deal, another likely eye-poke


Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, cited informed sources as saying Washington told Tehran through Qatari mediators that it no longer required changes sought by the United States to a proposed text.

According to the report, efforts by US President Donald Trump to alter the Islamic Republic's position through military pressure, diplomatic threats and Qatari mediation failed, with Tehran rejecting the latest proposed changes.-Iran Intl

[Winehole23]

both are sides claiming the other side caved, both can't be right

[Winehole23]

also, any deal that Israel won't abide by is basically worthless

[Winehole23]

super squeeze in metals

Trump has made industrial inputs more expensive for the next few years


The Iran war is creating a “super-squeeze” in industrial metals such as copper and aluminium, say executives and analysts who believe persistent tight market conditions mean prices could be set to stay high for years to come.

The price of copper is close to its all-time closing high while aluminium is at its highest level in four years….

But unlike energy markets, where there is plentiful global supply, concerns about looming shortages existed in some of these industrial metals before the war…

For metals, the war has increased the costs of operating a mine because of the higher price of the diesel used to run trucks and other mining equipment, and due to a jump in the price of sulphuric acid, a crucial ingredient used in some copper and nickel mines…


https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2027/03/Screenshot-2026-06-11-at-10.35.33%E2%80%AFPM.png

In the case of copper, the market was already expected to be in deficit — where demand outstrips supply — this year, because of disruptions at major mines.

The conflict in the Middle East has dented production further, by causing the price of sulphur — a byproduct of oil refining — to more than double.

Disruptions in sulphur availability could remove as much as 125,000 tonnes of copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. A further 200,000 tonnes of production in Chile could be at risk because of sulphur disruptions, including China’s ban on exports of sulphuric acid, according to Amy Gower, analyst at Morgan Stanley…

Goldman Sachs, which initially forecast a 60,000-tonne deficit this year outside the US market, recently revised that up to a 640,000-tonne deficit….

Mining executives say the shortfall has been building for years and investors have often not allowed them to make the necessary investment in new copper mines…

In aluminium, the war has had a direct impact, with the Middle East accounting for almost 10 per cent of global refined production…

Meanwhile, high fuel prices triggered by the war have caused some countries to accelerate investments related to energy security, for instance in renewables, a move that is expected to boost demand for copper and aluminium over the medium term, according to analysts…..

“I haven’t seen much demand destruction,” said Jean-Sébastien Pelland, executive director at Eland Cables, which makes copper cables used in offshore wind farms and oil rigs.
High costs are passed on to end users, who are willing to pay for them, he said. “People are not going to stop buying cables for renewables energy any time soon.”
https://www.ft.com/content/44d4b188-45ed-4e7e-a5eb-278da62ac601?syn-25a6b1a6=1

[Winehole23]

is it good when your allies start cutting side deals?


Qatar presented what amounted to a 'secret deal' [with Iran], vowing to use leverage over gas supplies to help bring the war to a swift end while seeking Iran’s commitment on 'one condition: you are not going to attack us.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/06/12/qatar-pursued-secret-talks-with-iran-shield-gas-complex-strikes/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreidf3wr7e4wfgfjueuhxlz7mt4wlarrmw5p4dh3bzqyw3 qkav73kmy

[Winehole23]

Iran has reportedly booby trapped its enriched uranium stockpile


Iran has escalated efforts to seal off its stockpile of enriched uranium (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-898635), collapsing tunnels, and placing explosive mines at entrances in recent weeks, CNN reported on Saturday, citing five sources familiar with US intelligence. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-899251

[Winehole23]

reportedly, the US got hit hard on Wednesday


Iran’s Revolutionary Guard struck five U.S. military installations overnight: Al-Salt Air Base in Jordan, Ahmad Al-Jaber and Ali Al-Salem Air Bases in Kuwait, U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, and Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain. OSINT reporting confirms Jordan “got seriously hit.”

The Patriot missile defense situation is alarming. Defense analysts report that three out of four Iranian ballistic missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key U.S. base in Jordan. Six interceptors were fired to achieve one successful interception. In cost terms, that’s roughly $24 million in interceptors against approximately $150,000 per Iranian missile, a 160-to-1 exchange ratio. One analyst put it plainly: this is not sustainable. Once ballistic missile defense coverage is depleted at key sites, the math becomes nearly impossible.


The U.S. long-range radar station at Jabal al-Dukhan in Bahrain? Confirmed ablaze. OSINT accounts geolocated the strike and matched smoke imagery to the AR-327 Long Range Radar site. A billion-dollar radar system, gone. Visual confirmation available for anyone who wants to look. CENTCOM and the Trump administration have been running cover on this, but the footage doesn’t lie.https://www.meidasplus.com/p/thursday-afternoon-news-updates-trump-519

[Winehole23]

Nuclear swagger belies the breezy, conversational tone

Trump sounds sweaty and desperate but that's every day these days





https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreid6gdsi7tevg3xzpdgyslz3wpx36mnnlyb76ficl2r2j 77jb677l4

[Winehole23]

"gimme your lunch money"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreih2mk4wk6e6bi6f5iy44nv6ftjbcjqgvknj74xsmz227 olsm6j2xi

[ChumpDumper]

Look what we made them do!

[Winehole23]

Pakistan is very optimistic about the deal to make a deal


Key mediator Pakistan has said the agreement would be signed electronically (https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel?post-id=cmqc965jp00003b6t9cr8dnll). The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran would kick off a new 60-day period of negotiations (https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/12/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel?post-id=cmqb8w2x900003b6rc4lxzle1) on how to implement the framework and resolve remaining sticking points at the center of the conflict, a US official said Friday.https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel

[ChumpDumper]

https://x.com/glcarlstrom/status/2065826604530466968

https://x.com/glcarlstrom/status/2065826604530466968

Of course Trump waits until his sweaty, homoerotic birthday party. Just surrender, you old dipshit. Your negotiating position can only get worse from here.

[Winehole23]

the purported US-Iran MOU, apparently not well received in Israel


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreicztc5cedtl7ae67st4sxjzezmhzczpb2w4zqbaqlibv zz5hrqlv4

[Winehole23]

Iran acting like there's a deal

Billions in upfront money

"Dilution"

Promise not to develop or use nukes


A senior Iranian official has told Reuters a final draft of the memorandum of understanding with the US covered ⁠a range of issues from Tehran's nuclear work to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and US waivers on oil sanctions, with a final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides.

The Iranian official said the draft memorandum included the following:

Iran immediately reopens ⁠the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, while the US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports.

The US agrees not to impose any new sanctions on Iran until a final deal is reached.

The US will waive oil sanctions on Iran for a specified period, allowing ⁠Tehran to sell oil and receive revenue.

The #US agrees to release $25 billion of Iran's frozen assets, ⁠including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines.
Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.

Iran agrees to maintain the nuclear status quo until a ⁠final deal is reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities.

The US agrees Tehran will dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile inside Iran, with a mechanism for doing so to be discussed within 60 days.https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=305585&page=69&p=11308447#post11308447

[Winehole23]

if accurate, the US will be giving Iran $25 billion, waiving sanctions and letting them sell oil right away -- just for the opportunity to negotiate for a return of the status quo ante that Trump/Bibi wrecked

[Winehole23]

however, Iran now has 31 autonomous military districts, and Israel doesn't like the deal


The deputy inspector of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command said on Sunday that Israel’s latest attack on Hezbollah in Beirut would not go unanswered.

Mohammadjafar Asadi described the strike in Dahieh as a renewed Israeli provocation.-Iran Intl

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiev2a5rjfura3tuvppl67jy3o5ufpo76rprvsghba5vv hbten5sda

[Winehole23]

sweaty and jittery



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreih2jrtgyz7yzwfuxuatxpbsy4wxm4wkgwpgzvccpukda hbmsbpvmu

[Winehole23]

Trump says Israel’s bombings in Beirut prevented signing of the Deal with Iran, but it could still happen in a few hours.- Axios

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vlpy6zuqqum5tumv7b6dw5fp/bafkreibkbw6d6ouzmo4zgpumk7q5cy22gwqv7gqd7sbgj5lnj itexln534

[ChumpDumper]

Geez Barak, calm down. Take a breath and check the spelling before you hit post.

[Winehole23]

https://thfvnext.bing.com/th/id/OIP.L58sQsAnUeOlbtMX4jrwmQHaEK?w=307&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=7&cb=thfvnextfalcon2&dpr=1.5&pid=1.7&rm=3

HEGSETH: We have controlled the straits this entire time

BRENNAN: You're negotiating with them to reopen it

[ChumpDumper]

Yeah, but we closey closed it!

[Winehole23]

Israel trying to shoot down a US concession to get a deal


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:i4uqcqeictd4irpzpdfnvj33/bafkreicoko4d6yl52465vreu7bkzo62qwh7dvieytbretiqim sifqkuw7i

[Winehole23]

I wonder what the source for this story is, or if it's just Israel getting sweaty and desperate over a possible deal


Iran has rejected a United States offer for unspecified financial benefits and intends to respond to Israel’s strike on Beirut soon, Channel 12 news reports.

US President Donald Trump’s administration is reportedly making intensive efforts to prevent a potential attack, as it seeks to sign an agreement with Iran in the coming hours.https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-reportedly-rejects-us-incentives-not-to-attack-israel-will-respond-soon-to-beirut-strikes/

[Winehole23]

Trump screwed by his junior partner in the war


Iran’s highest national security body warned on Sunday that a response was “imminent” following an Israeli strike targeting Tehran’s ally Hezbollah in Beirut’s southern suburbs.


“The response of the fighters of Islam is imminent,” the Supreme National Security Council said in a statement on X. “Lebanon is our life and violation of the red lines of the Islamic Republic will not be tolerated.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/14/iran-us-middle-east-crisis-donald-trump-peace-deal-strait-hormuz-open-pakistan-latest-news-updates

[ChumpDumper]

It's crystal clear Trump is the junior partner.

[Winehole23]

Iran closes its airspace



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:axsb4cya6zgpnbtrkbjmu3pj/bafkreig55l6okurkdzfwjgcjegenek43kyzqit2aayr7r6nes ecaffmjli

[Winehole23]

the power dynamic is underscored by Trump begging for terms

he sure ain't dictating them


Trump may be willing to immediately lift the naval blockade of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, rather than gradually as currently agreed - YNet

[Winehole23]

MOU is agreed to but will not be signed until Friday

If reporting is accurate, US lifts the blockade and gives Iran billions as a precondition to final talks

[Winehole23]

Israel has five days to fuck it all up...

[Winehole23]

this is what Iran says the deal is

$12b in upfront money with $300b more for reconstruction is orders of magnitude greater than Obama's deal

Obama did it without a war and without precipitating an energy supply shock





https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiha667g7mr6aq2iuznqyb4m45djjehhot6ovldk5tc4m gbpvloree
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiebt3h6m3xmhtvczu5n5ua7qqj7ix4ujt7cipbuxmcyb i6a5m3gcq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4lx6nur5wstwoc4wtgj56kyu/bafkreihxcaf6yksfuzkjkoax6awtdtaime7rbkmfazlvtv7ch 2rstwi4ui

[Winehole23]

Ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is safe from mines could ⁠delay a return to normal shipping traffic by weeks ⁠following a deal to reopen the waterway, maritime security sources tell Reuters news agency.


The operation by conventional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones could continue for 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping or oil companies are confident enough to sail through, according to assessments.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/15/iran-war-live-tehran-says-peace-deal-ends-us-blockade-war-on-all-fronts

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump was just asked at the G7 when we will release the terms of the great deal we negotiated. His response was a couple of days after we sign it Friday but "real soon".

Iran is driving this bus. if we follow through on the pledge to handcuff Israel then Lebanon will be the next Syria and desceend into anarchy. Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army.

[Spurs Homer]

Iran knows who they are dealing with; the "art of the deal"


https://youtu.be/DH1rlxTuUn4?si=fFSFibu13vMjh0hS

[Winehole23]

is freedom of navigation still a thing?

unclear

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreieg7gpwsfoscxm7s346jysiyvgab6pl2n5g3dwth3pf5 zny32umya

[Winehole23]

Trump was just asked at the G7 when we will release the terms of the great deal we negotiated. His response was a couple of days after we sign it Friday but "real soon".

There's no reason to hide the terms of the deal if they're favorable to the USA.

If the terms are unfavorable, it makes sense to hide them until the deal is already across the finish line.


Iran is driving this bus. if we follow through on the pledge to handcuff Israel then Lebanon will be the next Syria and desceend into anarchy. Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army.I don't see the US handcuffing Bibi because if we do, that's the end of Bibi domestically -- war on Iran is very popular in Israel.

So is war on Lebanon and Syria. Turkiye may yet have something to say about the latter and is suitably pissed off about Gaza.

[Winehole23]

The possibility of weird regional shit breaking loose is underrated

[Winehole23]

took years to negotiate the JPCOA, seems doubtful Trump can get nearly as good in 60 days



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:ao4pmhqpefrife3xy4yxynbs/bafkreihnd74kql2sx7fuheeuzczsi5ezzb7rdpyrdfhrfv45f naqv3axlm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:h6xbkw7bucg6ws3vqwnxqewp/bafkreieo4oms4n622tl3uitrlv5yyxx3tdnlue3ln4bqdnc2k xeq5yhxzq

[Winehole23]

not releasing the text leads to gambits like this

both sides can say whatever they want about the deal


“Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories they occupied during this war, the war has not fully come to an end,” Araghchi said.


Pakistan, a key mediator, has said the deal called for an end to military operations, including in Lebanon, as Iran long insisted. But Araghchi’s call for a withdrawal adds a new wrinkle.


A U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss outlines of the agreement, has said the deal did not call for an Israeli withdrawal. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel would remain in Lebanon “as long as necessary.”
https://www.pilotonline.com/2026/06/16/iran-deal-us-israel-lebanon/

[Blake]

is freedom of navigation still a thing?

unclear

Let's call it a tariff

[Spurs Homer]

lol


https://youtu.be/UYly7kqYxEo?si=rvdcmr345GMVg6Nb

[velik_m]

US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on

US intelligence agencies have recently assessed that Iran can effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on, meaning the country’s regime has acquired a powerful new ability to hurt the global economy as a result of the war, according to three sources familiar with the findings.

Regardless of the framework agreement that is due to be formally signed on Friday to open the key waterway as a prelude to nuclear talks, Iran proved it can shut off access to the strait during the current conflict and US intelligence assessments suggest that could happen again.

“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one of the sources familiar with the US intelligence assessments told CNN, emphasizing how the war has fundamentally altered Tehran’s thinking about leveraging similar tactics in the future.

...



https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/16/politics/us-intel-assessment-iran-shut-strait-hormuz

[Blake]

lol


https://youtu.be/UYly7kqYxEo?si=rvdcmr345GMVg6Nb

"CROOKED HILLARY!!!!!"

- Felon Donald

[Winehole23]

“People shouldn’t read too much into the language of the MOU,” one US official said, describing the agreement as a “political document.”

“What’s more important than the actual document is the understandings we have with each other. We came up with language that allows Iran to say what they need to say for their domestic politics.”-CNN

[ChumpDumper]

People shouldn't read the language.

https://i.imgur.com/NnSN0nv.gif

[Blake]

So they still have nuke capability then I'm guessing

[Blake]

Where's k pop tsa to answer these questions?