Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[ChumpDumper]

Why are you still scoreboarding your Trump tard felon team victory from 2024 in the year 2026? Why are you having fun watching citizens die and your gas, grocery, health and mortgage bills go way up?

Sorry that you can't troll your way out of that. I guess 2024 is all you'll ever have here.
He can't bring himself to talk about the present. He'd just as soon accept his Daddy King Trump's ending the world now so he won't have to think about what he's become.

[SnakeBoy]

Why are you still scoreboarding your Trump tard felon team victory from 2024 in the year 2026? Why are you having fun watching citizens die and your gas, grocery, health and mortgage bills go way up?

Sorry that you can't troll your way out of that. I guess 2024 is all you'll ever have here.

Don't have a mortgage, the rest is pocket change

Funny to see ya'll cry about lower levels of inflation than under Biden when you were all lol poors

[ChumpDumper]

Don't have a mortgage, the rest is pocket change

Funny to see ya'll cry about lower levels of inflation than under Biden when you were all lol poors
Funnier seeing you still posting exclusively about the past.

[Winehole23]

The UN Development Programme has published a stark warning (https://www.undp.org/arab-states/publications/military-escalation-middle-east-economic-and-social-implications-arab-states-region-assessment) about the economic cost of the ongoing war.
The report models the potential impact of the military escalation across the region. It describes what it calls a localised conflict becoming a “systemic regional shock”.


The region’s GDP could shrink by between 3.7 and 6 percent, a loss of up to $194bn, driven by disruptions to trade, energy markets and shipping routes.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by more than 70 percent since the escalation began, pushing oil prices from around $72 to nearly $120 a barrel.
Up to 4 million additional people could be pushed into poverty, with the Levant, including Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, bearing the heaviest burden.
Between 1.6 and 3.6 million jobs are at risk across the region, with low-skilled workers the most exposed.
Lebanon has been declared a major humanitarian emergency, with nearly a million people displaced and more than 325 schools converted into shelters.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/31/iran-war-live-kuwaiti-oil-tanker-hit-in-dubai-port-3-un-troops-killed

[Blake]

Don't have a mortgage, the rest is pocket change

Funny to see ya'll cry about lower levels of inflation than under Biden when you were all lol poors

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/d8/3a/e5/d83ae5deb2c70d3169b4b3dae4b61b5b.jpg

[Winehole23]

from the Tory Telegraph today


The world risks plunging into recession as Donald Trump appears to have “lost control” of the Iran war, a City bank has warned.


Major economies face a “real risk of an inflationary recession” if the conflict in the Middle East drags on, according to Peel Hunt, which said it could not rule out higher rates.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/world-recession-warning-as-trump-loses-control-of-iran-war/ar-AA1ZQKH1

[Winehole23]

Admitting you intentionally tried to assasinate and adversary country's leader is a very slippery slope. Turnabout is fair play and as open as our society is payback would be simple.Promising no mercy for the enemy affects US troops and the American people eventually, the enemy hears us and understands our actions at least partially in the light of what we say.

I don't think all the people we are currently bombing in Iran are military targets in the strict sense

Turnabout is fair play, Iran is a country of 90 million people -- what we are doing right now is what creates multi-generational, multi-national grudges

[Winehole23]

32 days after starting a strategically dumb war against Iran, Trump will address the country



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ooq4grlnq6oduygewsvi5ub7/bafkreiapffj3erxoqoizo344h3uvmtutqka7y4wc2eelza3i4 5iz6dftaa

[Blake]

32 days after starting a strategically dumb war against Iran, Trump will address the country

WE DID OUR PART. AMERICA FIRST. NATO AND EUROPE AREN'T DOING SHIT. WE HAVE LOTS OIL. GAS PRICES ARE GONNA BE TERRIFIC. THE BEST PRICES EVER. NEVER HAD THESE PRICES UNDER BIDEN. SLEEPY JOE. WIMPY EUROPE HAS NO COURAGE.

My guesses

[ChumpDumper]

Are all the invasion troops in position?

[ChumpDumper]

Thanks to the leadership of President Trump, we have won the Vietnam War!

2039090265122574644

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2039090265122574644

[BadMotorscooter]

Look at all the snowflake liberals in here....never seen Wine Ho, Flake and Chump so feminine. You girls petting your puppies in your safe place?....:lmao

[Blake]

Look at all the snowflake liberals in here....never seen Wine Ho, Flake and Chump so feminine. You girls petting your puppies in your safe place?....:lmao

That's your Trump tard team that's scared of your pets getting eaten by immigrants. You girls are clutching your cats and your guns in constant fear of dark skinned boogeymen

[Winehole23]

the invasion and depopulation of southern Lebanon hinders the chance of a US/Iran deal



In private calls to local leaders across southern Lebanon, Israeli military officials have assured several Christian and Druse communities that they could remain in the evacuation zone. They have pressed them, however, to force out any Lebanese from neighboring Shiite Muslim communities who have sought refuge among them as Israeli bombardment flatten Shiite towns, according to local Christian, Druse and Shiite leaders who spoke to The New York Times. The Shiites make up the majority of southern Lebanon….


[Defense Minister] Mr. [Israel] Katz said in a statement that Lebanese who had fled their homes in the south “will be completely prohibited” from returning “until the safety and security of northern Israeli residents is ensured.” He previously specified that Shiites would not be allowed to return and likened Israel’s strategy in Lebanon to that in Gaza.


That public messaging, along with the private push on local leaders, suggests that Israel is intent on redrawing not only the geographic map of south Lebanon but also the demographic one.


Over the past two weeks, Israeli military officials have called leaders of at least eight villages and told them to expel Shiites who had sought refuge in their communities, municipal officials and local Christian, Druse and Shiite leaders said in interviews. All complied, fearing that if they did not their towns could be hit next in the Israeli bombardment, they said.
https://archive.is/2sK0S

[velik_m]

UK security officials have started withholding intelligence from US due to Trump

...
A Foreign Office source told The i Paper that the White House’s “America First” approach showed Trump had “no compulsion about screwing over allies” and stated that the UK simply “cannot trust” the current administration.

American officials seconded to UK Government departments are now being asked to leave meetings which discuss sensitive information, according to the Financial Times.

A UK intelligence source described the move as “tit for tat”, meaning that any attempts to protect UK intelligence are only in response to similar hostilities from the US.

John Foreman, the UK’s Defence Attaché to Moscow until 2022, said that “trust once gone is hard to restore”.

He told The i Paper: “If the US aren’t willing to ensure that UK secrets remain classified, then restrictions will have to be put in place. But [this is] hard when intelligence sharing is so deep and wide.”
...



https://inews.co.uk/news/uk-security-officials-withholding-intelligence-trump-4328858

[TSA]

Iran was trying to use the North Korean model to get a nuke: create sufficient conventional deterrence so you won’t be challenged in acquiring one (it’s called the Seoul Hostage Problem).

This has been explained over and over since day one.

Everyone claiming shifting goalposts or no imminent threat has been lying.

The reason North Korea was allowed to get nukes is because Seoul (and its 10 million inhabitants) is within artillery and rocket range of North Korea.

During the 1994 nuclear crisis, the Clinton administration seriously considered airstrikes on North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor but backed off precisely because of the artillery threat to Seoul.

Iran was trying to accomplish the same by stockpiling missiles and drones which would have had the same deterrent effect. The proof is what Iran has been doing in the past month: attacking all its neighbors in order to pressure the US to stop attacking it

Beyond this, they were building medium-range ballistic missiles that could reach Paris and London, meaning all of Europe could be held hostage as they built a nuclear bomb.

The reason Iran has not built a nuclear weapon until now is not because it couldn’t, but because it knew it would be attacked and denied this capability.

So by allowing them to continue developing this conventional deterrence, you would be allowing Iran to get a nuclear weapon.

And unlike North Korea, Iran is led by an eschatological death cult

Reagan saw nuclear mutually assured destruction (MAD) as both morally bankrupt (because of the innocent-body-count problem) and dangerously fragile because it assumed flawless rationality between adversaries…this means it only takes one irrational actor to destroy the world.

Working backwards from the conclusion that Iran’s Islamist regime must never have a nuclear weapon, it was necessary for the US to attack Iran to deny it the conventional capacity to hold the entire eastern hemisphere hostage.

Every European leader knows this and behind the scenes praises the US for this action. But they are cowards, held hostage by their own internal Muslim populations, and so adopt these ridiculous public positions.

This was never about Israel. And if your argument is that Iran should be allowed to get a nuclear weapon then you are a fool and a traitor to western civilization…you’re a useful idiot

https://x.com/gummibear737/status/2039299981408927975

[ChumpDumper]

TSA gets all his foreign policy views from....











































....a gummi bear.














































lol

[ChumpDumper]

TSA last June.


welp

https://x.com/ELuttwak/status/1939673031678341404

https://x.com/ELuttwak/status/1939525555256197582

Were you lying then or are you lying now?

[ChumpDumper]

Also from last June:

“The devastating US strike on Fordo destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran’s military nuclear program, has set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years. The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.”-Israel Atomic Energy Commission

Do you believe the IAEC?
Do you believe Iranian officials?
Do you believe Israeli officials?
Do you believe US officials?
You need gummi to help you retcon this.

[Winehole23]

good thing the US doesn't rely on aluminum for anything


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreifwusddd33oz6whefwumtrqchermv4imqt5zx7a242ia s4pq6ee4u

[ChumpDumper]

good thing the US doesn't rely on aluminum for anything


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreifwusddd33oz6whefwumtrqchermv4imqt5zx7a242ia s4pq6ee4u

TSA said we don't need the strait.

A gummi bear told him.

[Winehole23]

presumably this is sill true



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreibqbrrqzrgsr62xazujbwpmo65l2v7534re43boup6ib yyjr3yxjy

[Winehole23]

oh, now we need their help

in a war we already won


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreif3fklrruglypgnnc5ee27gdmihoh3unt3e642mtlaah yscvryokq

[Blake]

TSA gets all his foreign policy views from....











































....a gummi bear.














































lol

Rofl that's the same Gummi tsa was copy pasta from that was pushing hard to use the horse pills for covid.

[Blake]

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?

Will tsa ever answer his own question about the "straight"?

[Blake]

Looks like you are stumped I'll hold your hand.



https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/2036814523986849877

Do we need the straight open or do they need the straight open?

What's the average price per gallon in Korea? Do you know what it currently is here?

Or are you only going to come back to this thread when Trump tacos himself and gas prices dip some?

[Winehole23]

reducing the political universe to a single data point

is like looking at everything through a soda straw

a lot gets excluded. you can move the straw around, but the view never improves.

[Blake]

reducing the political universe to a single data point

is like looking at everything through a soda straw

a lot gets excluded. you can move the straw around, but the view never improves.

It's the Trump tard cherry picking methodology. They do it with science and religion too.

[Winehole23]

“Stocks dropped and oil rose as President Donald Trump said the US will hit Iran extremely had over the next two to three weeks.”

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zmo2sq46dtfhxlutx2zfgdta/bafkreifpkxvbz6m6obiwjbnrgk73ghehlhoz5t5bud5vqwzrv abv3pwp3y

[Blake]

4 billion D chess

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:dbnfgp54eyysq64mwqn6ys77/bafkreiga7id3nzovkps7vwen2jwn6smnw2wacmtitqyruzxly 6b5ojngie

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:l42gvpgcjuckuwprg3sniq6h/bafkreigdypu4ooil5hqsfjcynjgkbklwl2532jc3a3zyxuiu6 up3n2jfky

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o2brl3m63vpjobqwh4dcgout/bafkreiasdwidubqgjkvevpwlf4xhb7ta35jr7ltxwxaynx5ke lrpaspvnq

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tm3djotsgwdkml5jn5rpubhd/bafkreihogc2dob7jdl25u3kmxpyrfdowy5v7i63q3boilrvj4 wqiezw76a

[velik_m]

https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2026/iran-coastline-islands/

[velik_m]

Iran and Oman drafting protocol to ‘monitor’ Hormuz Strait traffic: IRNA

Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to “monitor transit” through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state news agency IRNA reported Thursday morning, citing an official.

Tanker traffic through the key oil-shipping route “should be supervised and coordinated” with the two countries, said Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister of legal and international affairs, according to a translation of IRNA’s report.

“Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but rather to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route,” Gharibabadi reportedly said.

U.S. stock indexes, which were trading sharply lower Thursday morning after President Donald Trump signaled that the Iran war will continue for weeks to come, suddenly turned higher following IRNA’s report.

...



https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/iran-war-oman-hormuz-strait.html

[SnakeBoy]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o2brl3m63vpjobqwh4dcgout/bafkreiasdwidubqgjkvevpwlf4xhb7ta35jr7ltxwxaynx5ke lrpaspvnq

Too bad the Democrats didn't listen to him

[Blake]

Too bad the Democrats didn't listen to him

Kegs and Trump have that botched effort to go on and we're still in this retarded mess.

But hey at least Trump is working hard to get his name on money so there's that.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Oh okay so Trump is back to his 2017/18 schtick of firing people when shit hits the fan

Then again Bondi was always a sacrificial lamb, but now was such a convenient time

Thank goodness all of this will be over forever after 2028

[ChumpDumper]

Too bad the Democrats didn't listen to him

They did.

So did the Republicans.

You still lost.

Like you are now.

How does it feel?

[Blake]

Oh okay so Trump is back to his 2017/18 schtick of firing people when shit hits the fan

Then again Bondi was always a sacrificial lamb, but now was such a convenient time

Thank goodness all of this will be over forever after 2028

Unless Trump bullies his way to a 3rd term.

[velik_m]

Japanese, French and Omani vessels cross Strait of Hormuz

Three Omani-operated tankers, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier have crossed the Strait #of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran's policy to allow passage for vessels it deems friendly.

Iran initially shut the Strait - a route for about a fifth of global #oil and LNG flows - after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes ⁠on Iran at the end of February led to ⁠a widening conflict. ⁠Later, it said it would permit transits by ships with no U.S. #or Israeli links.

Oil and commodities markets are keen for signs traffic is resuming. Several ⁠tankers and container ships have ⁠managed to escape the blockade in previous weeks but activity was swiftly followed by days of complete paralysis.

A container ship owned by France's CMA CGM transited the Strait on Thursday, the day that French President ⁠Emmanuel Macron said that only diplomatic efforts, not a military operation ⁠could open the Strait.

The French vessel changed #its Automatic Identification System destination to "Owner France" before entering Iranian waters, signaling its nationality to Iranian authorities.

The vessels appear to have switched off their AIS transponders during the crossing because #their signal disappeared on vessel-tracking data.

Two very large crude carriers and one LNG tanker operated by Oman Shipping Management also exited the Gulf on Thursday, according to MarineTraffic and LSEG data.

...


https://japantoday.com/category/politics/japanese-french-and-omani-vessels-cross-the-strait-of-hormuz

[Winehole23]

ISIS posting

Sh!t like this makes him and the USA look ridiculous




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreido6g2mkms76f4eg45pzdgbzvq2fa7yqhvpwskm4uxyy du7yqrff4

[Blake]

HEY EVANGELICALS! LOOK WHAT I DID! I PUT GLORY TO GOD THERE! I'M THE MOST LOVED KING I MEAN PRESIDENT BY GOD EVER AND IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE!

[Blake]

The U.S. military continued its search Saturday for a missing American pilot whose aircraft was shot down Friday by Iranian forces, one of two U.S. warplane crashes in the region, while Iran conducts a competing search as it urges locals through state media to find the “enemy pilot.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/conormurray/2026/04/04/search-for-missing-american-pilot-continues-us-and-iranian-forces-race-to-find-crew-member-live-updates/

IRAN MILITARY TOTALLY OBLITERATED! *

[Winehole23]

dwindling US missile stockpiles, hope we don't need em elsewhere




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreicrlg56agz7kh3ox5juhrnqrhdifuy2viabzit3rdcng 7mt5xnw4uhhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war

[Winehole23]

US taking hostages



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/bafkreiglut56d3xie3xlv6qfeb6xcta3ywey3ucaio4mzzott upj2wsgna

[Winehole23]

ongoing evacuations of US personnel from the region would seem to suggest active, dangerous adversaries


NPR has learned that hundreds of sailors were evacuated back to the United States from their base in Bahrain after the base was attacked by Iranian missiles and drones. In addition to the base in Bahrain, NPR has learned that there have been evacuations at other U.S. military bases in the region, though the exact details are unknown at this point.https://www.npr.org/2026/04/03/nx-s1-5770491/evacuation-bahrain-norfolk-troops

[Winehole23]

underrated:

wartime press and information restrictions


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2whlowi5jjjqrdrrj4lxh2lx/bafkreihl6bkdykspvrz33c5hrnmbuvr76ovfpyapgidfyoc5f fu6gxryd4
Just had this (https://bsky.app/profile/eliothiggins.bsky.social/post/3miotfqqqqs2j) from Planet Labs, the US government have asked satellite imagery providers for "voluntarily" restrictions on access to satellite imagery. Given a lot of them provide satellite imagery to the USG we can probably guess the outcome of not acquiescing to that request.
someone doesn't like stories like this

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gx8e1x5j3o

[Winehole23]

Israel is preparing to ​attack Iranian energy #facilities but is awaiting a green ​light from ​the United States, a ⁠senior Israeli ​defense official said ​on Saturday, adding that any such attacks would ​likely come ​within the next week.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-preparing-attacks-iranian-energy-sites-awaits-us-green-light-official-2026-04-04/

[Winehole23]

life and death implications for Asia specifically, but also for poor countries in general



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cmvp2dfgs7qrfjo5n27limmf/bafkreifyhlcrfyurypcmi2fyea2cbhww6w4ffc3upoencflt2 ditfbir34

[Blake]

life and death implications for Asia specifically, but also for poor countries in general

FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELVES, INDIA. WE DID THE HARD PART!!

[Winehole23]

Loomered


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:znmyc2ijthyypwnh4fbhvh6t/bafkreicebfpcvboebcno4yrzfnfxy276dgrgvln5kfbp77exv 63mjs3mim


US taking hostages

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/bafkreiglut56d3xie3xlv6qfeb6xcta3ywey3ucaio4mzzott upj2wsgna

[Winehole23]

takes aim at "enemy mouthpieces"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:znmyc2ijthyypwnh4fbhvh6t/bafkreiabcnlub2ndah7bkx5s3y2r2bfuz7rb6zak7rbbz4uug y3and447m

[Winehole23]

Fox News was just talking about Soleimani’s niece and grand niece getting arrested by ICE: “Both were granted asylum in 2019 under the Biden administration.”

The question of who was actually president from Jan. 2017- Jan. 2021 continues to perplex Trump supporters.

[ChumpDumper]

She had me at "massive amounts of plastic surgery."

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hcorr4yvkfpcqsie5se73ojd/bafkreifw2twcl4qj3txmlryyntefjuhyorkhyxwmg2tib3gme s2jcsqxua

[Winehole23]

potentially up to 3M barrels per day back online, assuming swift resumption of normal business

but contextually could also mean that the US just lost Iraq's Sunni coded proxy war on Iran that started in 1980

if Iraq takes the deal -- if it is even a viable deal -- it takes the side of Shia co-religionists in Iran



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreifauc7z4ocoimuymhuji46whbtjqlzesn2pmyvkdo7ig ydztyidxyhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-says-iraqi-ships-are-allowed-to-use-strait-of-hormuz/ar-AA209z1B

[Winehole23]

seems the pattern of daring and successful rescue of downed US pilots continues

we're really good at operations and tactics

https://nypost.com/2026/04/04/us-news/military-continues-urgent-search-for-f-15-co-pilot-behind-enemy-lines-in-iran/

[Winehole23]

seems the pattern of escalation by both sides continues

the more the US and Israel try to take down Iran, the more Iran will try to take down the whole region


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreiemd7jko6ted7uuquyk2v5q6hzxjzyumakbpeoarzb5v tsw3vllwu

[Winehole23]

amazing rescue

but the deaths of thousands of innocent Iranians pass more or less without comment in the US press

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreiftodwatjdzhhtj5vx4e37ghs6r5ksl4wk5a66pn3tyj ldzxjki5a

[Winehole23]

and maybe even more so in Iran


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xnqnvmwuju4ipj7dehiuxonh/bafkreiesknnj4iujqcgcpbobxfsc6vz2v4drcaiht6hymanr6 nw7myexdy

[Winehole23]

sailors stuck on ships with dwindling supplies of water and food



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bbp2b224lro3bfnzcqwwnkfo/bafkreig7gnrbxv75mnyamftaa6sxuerjbyijtj5sa6qcyaudy eafnywlqmhttps://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/life-and-death-aboard-ships-stranded-near-the-strait-of-hormuz-960e78f1

[Winehole23]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HFDb48_XIAAECHz?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Winehole23]

shortages and demand destruction leading to global recession are big reasons the US has been wary to attack Iran

this Oil Price article is clocking these as practically baked in if Hormuz isn't reopened within a couple of weeks




Markets appear stable on the surface, but underlying stress is building across interconnected commodity chains—oil, gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, helium, and logistics—raising the risk of a systemic breakdown.

The key shift is from pricing risk to deliverability and access risk, with supply chains losing flexibility and physical shortages beginning to emerge beneath still-functioning paper markets.

The next two weeks are critical: if disruptions persist, cascading failures could trigger inflation, supply shortages, and a broader global economic shock.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Two-Week-Window-That-Could-Break-Global-Commodity-Markets.html

[Winehole23]

dp

sorry

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:t4x2ruk2qmob2b2cx55h4v7r/bafkreihc6a5bqjhy6ockk4hgfyi6isow26awytgui2reszjbs x7fpejyse

[velik_m]

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,"

A very hinged president. Everything is under control and going according to plan.

[Winehole23]

Trump is about halfway to taking Shahada on that post, amazing that he picked Easter Sunday to do it

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pxxt6a7kjvl4liakp2rflfeq/bafkreidtsxp34f5evelda5xbku33d7qbuhtoncszeglxrvnub i3wwv6eay

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3w75iygkvtcrqvu4x4ux2hzv/bafkreihnfzha7lytuy23wweraea7nqhyw3wdsqjqcmlhqn7fl 3pp22t56q

[Winehole23]

dropping some nukes to cover his second biggest mistake would be very Trumplike

Trump wants us to know he's considering it



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreic3lklnq7kv67hjgymbeeyzbavbgeb7djnezosvyk26x bxe57ut7q

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:b6gfddlkp6t4qsqqjalvnj3v/bafkreifmsvtyslscs4rzzgbovfbqvhibuckfcrjujmlrpqqtg xqahaiosq

[Winehole23]

US nuclear doctrine used to revolve around first strike/no first strike. Now expanded to president undergoing rage spiral/psychic collapse.

[Winehole23]

what's amazing about this trend line is that it doesn't really bounce back


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:x7ajfd6mhrii5axlx254vmol/bafkreickxnx66hzckwh2uahjyqfkk2fv7dteflrgp3ygqekws bmpdgyaam

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bbicg7pdnmz7mcs2noua4rhp/bafkreieiokez3ljuog77lsplvk27nkcp2nulhxpimpyaj2vgt kunqnwrbq

[Winehole23]

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pxxt6a7kjvl4liakp2rflfeq/bafkreidtsxp34f5evelda5xbku33d7qbuhtoncszeglxrvnub i3wwv6eay

Damn... just insane

[Winehole23]

Iran looks prepared to extend the conflict


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bbp2b224lro3bfnzcqwwnkfo/bafkreichpu3fflk63uyu3mxbjl6miqlvillt7cnurwrv6udcd rdbdeqmpm

[velik_m]

India turns to Iran for oil and gas after 7-year hiatus, signaling limits to U.S. tilt

India has begun buying oil and gas from Tehran after a seven‑year hiatus as it grapples with supply disruptions and elevated energy prices triggered by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

The move to resume Iranian energy imports — the first purchases since 2019, according to energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy — is unlikely to draw immediate ire from Washington, but analysts say it underscores New Delhi’s attempt to rebalance ties with Tehran.

On Saturday, India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said Indian refiners had secured crude supplies from more than 40 countries, including Iran, amid disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

The ministry denied that refiners faced any payment hurdles for Iranian crude and said a vessel carrying 44,000 metric tons of Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) had berthed at a southern Indian port.

“It’s a confidence‑building mechanism with Tehran,” Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia advisor at Teneo, told CNBC in an email, adding that the energy purchases act as an “insurance policy,” signaling that India does not intend to take sides in the conflict.

In return, India “expects cooperation from Iran” to ensure the safe passage of its ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the future, he said.
...


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/06/india-iran-oil-imports-strait-hormuz-us-tensions.html

[Winehole23]

"The president is the most bloodthirsty, like a mad dog (https://www.rawstory.com/trump-walter-reed-retired-general/?utm_source=msn)," one Trump insider told Axios, downplaying narratives that other cabinet members are the real warmongers. "Those guys sound like the doves compared to the president."

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:twasya42lpacrrncfhcrbjyv/bafkreidz4mjdr5nrbp2szjytugxhg2p55fyfcti6oyzyc4p2t duuqbtpaa

[Blake]

I WILL KILL ALL OF YOU TONIGHT. GOD BLESS YOU.

[Blake]

I mean, I keep thinking he's as insane as he can get and he just keeps raising that bar.

[Winehole23]

apparently being an insane criminal isn't a strict barrier to high office in the US

[Winehole23]

Jonathan Swan & Maggie Haberman in the NYT

(gift link may expire)





The U.S. officials assessed that the first two objectives were achievable with American intelligence and military power. They assessed that the third and fourth parts of Mr. Netanyahu’s pitch, which included the possibility of the Kurds mounting a ground invasion of Iran, were detached from reality.


When Mr. Trump joined the meeting, Mr. Ratcliffe briefed him on the assessment. The C.I.A. director used one word to describe the Israeli prime minister’s regime change scenarios: “farcical.”





At that point, Mr. Rubio cut in. “In other words, it’s bullshit,” he said.https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZFA.j6-o.Jn6giQD4mdIJ&smid=url-share

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36n7wd7gg4tapamnog4zyyc6/bafkreidpdpgbh2e2ids7psvg7b5no4fwgjepxbypjy6biv3eq azzuygiz4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreigb5xi6uljwgm7ymlvkaogyc5ikuordnloxfcxsjsjcl 23ukqjthy

[Winehole23]

seems like a big concession, I'm old enough to remember when navigation was free in the Persian Gulf

do US military bases in the Persian Gulf rely on seaborne resupply?

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gf3n3otq4l6xjcc2ej6mmooy/bafkreia7n3fsvyorvn33jdf7igifgd27zganuye43kmb3h3vs tmcbcu7ry


The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a regional official said.-AP

[Winehole23]

"a workable basis on which to negotiate"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:eh7btnxxhxjksxexczgjfkvo/bafkreig2ieudzzqwjfocjo6axdxfehi2jot3xmu3jd2hsppqh jxxuhhizy

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreib3evwqodsbohqfciu26zpkivi7l26aoy6wrk3kgcdxp e4awo4gym


“.. The ceasefire .. has reinforced views among both adversaries and the NATO alliance that .. Trump’s campaign against the Tehran regime marks a strategic setback, bolstering China and Russia while squandering American strengths ..”

[Winehole23]

more taxes on US importers




https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreig22nsik2csxduz5cnrwe5hxw3agnw3jp4vgg63sle7t qpnv7keqq

[Winehole23]

Iran bombed stuff last night



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zrz33wwhanmexrbz7vmhu2xx/bafkreidmvz6gntku255vstzutofwoyttvipt5ox2kxc4wbjtf z5yr45r6q

[Blake]

more taxes on US importers

He doesn't have the balls to go full boycott on countries aiding our enemies.

[Blake]

Iran bombed stuff last night



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zrz33wwhanmexrbz7vmhu2xx/bafkreidmvz6gntku255vstzutofwoyttvipt5ox2kxc4wbjtf z5yr45r6q

How many more times will they say "OBLITERATED" before needing to drop more bombs because they aren't actually OBLITERATED

[TSA]

How many more times will they say "OBLITERATED" before needing to drop more bombs because they aren't actually OBLITERATED


General Caine this morning. The US has destroyed:
- ~80% of Iran’s air defense systems (>1500 AD targets)
- >450 ballistic missile storage facilities
- >800 one-way attack drone storage facilities
- >200 C2 nodes
- 90% of the Navy (150 ships) and half of IRGC small attack boats
- 95% of naval mines
- 90% of weapons factories including every factory that produced Shaheds and their guidance systems
- 80% of missile production facilities
- >20 naval production and fabrication facilities damaged or destroyed
- 80% of nuclear industrial base

https://x.com/DAlperovitch/status/2041932473605530012

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2041855087501304068

[ChumpDumper]

Why did Trump surrender then?

Just to open the strait you said we don't need?:lol

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao TSA waiting for talking points for appointing Vance as Antipope.

2041967392994038245

https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/2041967392994038245

[Winehole23]

Why did Trump surrender then?

Just to open the strait you said we don't need?:lolTrump surrendered -- or rather, sent Mike Pompeo to surrender -- to the Taliban in 2020

Trump surrendering to Iran in 2026 shouldn't come as the biggest surprise -- that's what you get when you elect Republicans

The USA loses again

[Winehole23]

Vatican-related

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:rbftmrlfcemtu2dqkyywtazu/bafkreig2zlslt2mjhjwslp3nfdlp63mtfdmnnqowlu746kocl yyoizknw4

https://www.thelettersfromleo.com/p/the-pentagon-threatened-pope-leo

[Winehole23]

Oil company executives are reaching out to the White House, Sec State Rubio and VP Vance to protest allowing Iran to charge tolls through the strategic Strait of Hormuz as a condition of peace talks, said one industry consultant granted anonymity to discuss relations with the administration.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreifut4ib3tjq7hi54iuj2eetl7ktmitjyjumvyvh5uypo orgo3foxy

[Winehole23]

Trump can't keep it straight

Does the US need NATO or not?



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hf7ezrajxadu7v3tzcyij424/bafkreigrj4gyubk5u2oqrx7bqdkfbqx5kt5khz4kbwezujupc qsctkhh3a

[Blake]

General Caine this morning. The US has destroyed:
- ~80% of Iran’s air defense systems (>1500 AD targets)
- >450 ballistic missile storage facilities
- >800 one-way attack drone storage facilities
- >200 C2 nodes
- 90% of the Navy (150 ships) and half of IRGC small attack boats
- 95% of naval mines
- 90% of weapons factories including every factory that produced Shaheds and their guidance systems
- 80% of missile production facilities
- >20 naval production and fabrication facilities damaged or destroyed
- 80% of nuclear industrial base

https://x.com/DAlperovitch/status/2041932473605530012

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2041855087501304068

Lol tsa 9 months ago


Oops...article was obviously TLDR for Blake and he didn't make it past the first paragraph. Typical Blake :lol

"The recent assessment is a snapshot of the damage U.S. strikes inflicted amid an intelligence-gathering process that administration officials have said is expected to continue for months. Assessments of Iran’s nuclear program after the U.S. strikes are expected to change over time, and according to two of the current officials, as the process progresses, the findings suggest more damage than previous assessments revealed."

"The U.S. strikes targeted three enrichment sites in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. U.S. officials believe the attack on Fordo, which has long been viewed as a critical component of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, was successful in setting back Iranian enrichment capabilities at that site by as much as two years, according to two of the current officials."


"A U.S. official pointed NBC News to a closed-door briefing conducted in late June by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who told lawmakers that Iran’s nuclear program was “severely damaged” and that several key nuclear facilities were “completely destroyed,” according to an administration official’s description of the briefing. Ratcliffe said the only metal conversion facility at Natanz, required for nuclear enrichment, was destroyed to the point that it would take “years to rebuild,” according to the official, who was authorized to describe some contents of the classified briefing.

Ratcliffe also said that the intelligence community believes the strikes buried the vast majority of enriched uranium at Isfahan and Fordo and that thus it would be extremely difficult for the Iranians to extract it to resume enrichment, according to the official. The United States has not seen indications that Iran is trying to dig out the facilities, two officials said.

As NBC News has reported, the Israeli government believes at least some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains intact but buried beneath the Isfahan facility, according to a senior Israeli government official who briefed reporters in Washington last week. The official said, however, that Israel considers the material effectively unreachable, because it is watching and will conduct new strikes if it believes Iran is trying to dig up the uranium. The official also said Israel believes Iran’s nuclear program has been set back by up to two years."


"Iran’s air defenses have been largely destroyed, making it all but impossible for Iran to defend against further strikes on facilities in the future, the U.S. official said.

“It was made clear that Iran no longer has any more [air defenses], so the idea that they can easily rebuild anything is ludicrous,” the official said."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/new-us-assessment-finds-american-strikes-destroyed-only-one-three-iran-rcna218761

OBLITERATED!!!*

[Winehole23]

Trump keeps mashing buttons that make prices go up



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreibea3n4n5ur3nal4s2ezqfasxesqux7bu3uwdjgdxa2r 4nawqjnf4

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:onynpo6tbr74ozqtvv63h5d5/bafkreifqetxexaebust3usy7ewnsv7e2kvou23kt63q4r5q3p ksw344gae


HASSETT: ASIA FEELING REAL PAIN BECAUSE THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL

[Winehole23]

having blundered strategically, Trump will now attempt to browbeat US allies to clean up his mess in the Persian Gulf


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ewwwkdaurqzrask2yjpuu3kn/bafkreiblqj7vzlsgz5bok5rap53hqn2mnzgrgz7utj4tne7sq xkomx3k3q

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/iran-news-am-9-april-trump-erwaegt-offenbar-truppen-abzug-als-bestrafung-fuer-nato-staaten-a-a7d1f3c7-10f4-4b72-818d-b51ddb789faf

[Winehole23]

Impeachment and removal and not just for Trump, Hegseth deserves it too


It remains to be seen whether the cease-fire announced on Tuesday will hold, but it is already clear that going to war again was a terrible blunder. Two months ago, the Strait of Hormuz was open, Iran was contained and its leaders were unpopular, oil and gas prices were lower, and its U.S. weapons stocks were fuller. Today, oil and gas prices have soared; inflation is rising; Iran controls the strait and is earning money from tolls; and its government is younger, more hard-line, and enjoying greater public support. U.S. missile stocks are depleted, and some key facilities in the region have been severely damaged. And the entire world has been shown that the United States is led by an impulsive old man who has no idea what he is doing. At this point, there’s no reason to delay imposing accountability on those responsible for what has been an unnecessary strategic disaster.https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/america-pro-war-elites-accountable-responsibility/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=YW1lcmljYS1wcm8td2FyLWVsaXRlcy1hY2 NvdW50YWJsZS1yZXNwb25zaWJpbGl0eQ

[TSA]

Lol tsa 9 months ago



OBLITERATED!!!*

that was from the article YOU linked you stupid fucking moron :lmao :lmao :lmao

[Blake]

that was from the article YOU linked you stupid fucking moron :lmao :lmao :lmao

And? You quoted it as truth. I posted it to lol.

Why are we even in Iran? Why are you okay with it? Why do you keep running from these questions?

[ChumpDumper]

Did you get this agreement in writing, scrah?

Can we see it?

2042370585150570571

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2042370585150570571

[Winehole23]

why would Trump be so pissed off about a war he already won?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:eivqo2tskdfn4dbrm3dv2mku/bafkreif5v6ojahy3zyauug734xefvn7eygreafjricezrvwjv zjjdgpfia

[Blake]

Did you get this agreement in writing, scrah?

Can we see it?

2042370585150570571

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2042370585150570571

So will he wipe out their civilization now or give another extension until TACO Tuesday

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tb2bwzxom5qv4542ru3zqcgu/bafkreifctr7p6uyczk5muoyaylyjispbmkoazbwwqoonj2hni 57tkp5k3y

[Winehole23]

technically, that is regime change


IDF officials told a closed Knesset briefing that Iran’s new leadership is “more extreme than its predecessor.” - i24 News

[ChumpDumper]

But we won like a month ago. Trump said.

2042611337017123148

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2042611337017123148

[Blake]

Didn't Trump also say "not our problem, we did the hard part, you guys stop being cowards and open the Strait yourselves"

[Blake]

Can I get a Trump tard in here to please explain what we've accomplished so far?

[Winehole23]

Reported precondition: US unblocking payment if $6B to Iran to start negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Six weeks ago it was an international waterway

Today Iran has control of it

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jwaipngz32x3qkfni2j2tqqx/bafkreid2gt5mmoomzfsc52mu47vlnwf4cfiumgf3smt3cjopn vesxd5taq

[Winehole23]

CHINA WILL STOP SULFURIC ACID EXPORTS STARTING IN MAY.https://blog.chemondis.com/7346/comprehensive-guide-to-sulfuric-acid-uses-handling-safety-and-buying-tips/

[ChumpDumper]

His mind is mush and/or he's incredibly stupid.

2042714212879995263

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2042714212879995263

[Blake]

This is excruciatingly awful. And these Republicans that know he's blowing things up are too chicken shit to do anything.

[Winehole23]

seems like Trump ceded control of Hormuz before the negotiation

or could do nothing to prevent it

control of an erstwhile international waterway seems like a card, a moderately powerful one



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreia3ycitjfwo7vscqv4pn3wxb6iks3aprko2gzw4zdyx2 6765ihovy

[Winehole23]

what MAGAs don't seem to get is that Trump is the one suing for peace here

don't get me wrong, I think it's likely Trump will escalate, but that will mean an even worse loss economically and politically for the USA

[Winehole23]

if Trump gives up, this is the wisest choice, but he loses politically

if Trump doesn't give up, he also loses politically, but it takes longer and the pain is much worse for everyone

[Winehole23]

Why did Trump surrender then?

Just to open the strait you said we don't need?:lol


Trump surrendered -- or rather, sent Mike Pompeo to surrender -- to the Taliban in 2020

Trump surrendering to Iran in 2026 shouldn't come as the biggest surprise -- that's what you get when you elect Republicans

The USA loses againRepublicans have been losing major wars for 55 years

Why trust them now?

[Winehole23]

Why did Trump surrender then?

Just to open the strait you said we don't need?:lol


Trump surrendered -- or rather, sent Mike Pompeo to surrender -- to the Taliban in 2020

Trump surrendering to Iran in 2026 shouldn't come as the biggest surprise -- that's what you get when you elect Republicans

The USA loses againRepublicans have been losing major wars for 57 years

Why trust them now?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:vq3fn2jcelxumsyvq4entjl4/bafkreicfvjcflawozvmarziz7nvevzfbqoofma7tyf6mzfz7a 5bb54cveu

[Winehole23]

Nixon-style price controls coming back?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7upoypvlxudsiv4pzbi5jtwf/bafkreihfxxfzmqycdy26cscfh43eul45zvdxrhvpjjybo334b 67ldh64xa

[Winehole23]

US Navy ships reportedly crossed the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.jpost.com/tags/strait-of-hormuz) on Saturday afternoon as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations kicked off in Pakistan, though Iran denied the reports and threatened to attack any unauthorized ships in the strait.


Axios, citing a US official, reported that several US Navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, the move was not coordinated with the Iranian Navy and was the first time US Navy ships made such a move since the start of the war.


According to the Wall Street Journal, three US officials confirmed that two US Navy guided-missile destroyers passed through the strait without issue in what was described as a "freedom-of-navigation mission."

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892632#google_vignette

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5ajfoi4dfp76zax4qx5iuhbk/bafkreihvydskak5bs6jze7krbzhimb6wwuiarojyqnzlyhjy6 5r36inuoa

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/04/10/a-crazy-expensive-us-drone-just-disappeared-over-strait-of-hormuz/

[Winehole23]

the market for physical barrels of oils is starting to get squirelly



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:hscx76sqr4x2ox7gh3gl4v4p/bafkreifqfn2ptivzfcwtaubwdpmc3ez4447sf5qm7spoyynx6 mdfpz4dp4
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:hscx76sqr4x2ox7gh3gl4v4p/bafkreifwcoj6zpq34kxirtyjy2wyoho7qu63ebmxo2hiwb3n4 nodjo3zwy
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:hscx76sqr4x2ox7gh3gl4v4p/bafkreifmj4xh3lsvr6vyv7qblpuc4xcwtbovsfevbdhlqneo7 elbyrplhyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-11/the-oil-market-is-in-the-grip-of-a-panicked-race-for-barrels

[Winehole23]

US minesweeping reported

https://d1ldvf68ux039x.cloudfront.net/thumbs/photos/2604/9609002/1000w_q95.jpg

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/562510/us-forces-start-mine-clearance-mission-strait-hormuz

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:fphj62hdaagffntkjocmrebv/bafkreihlofijfuncgvuoxyhmzejxmmbqtdmupgrymf7qpw6mp fambygmqu

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:fphj62hdaagffntkjocmrebv/bafkreidxpewde7pckovn6eysgbfklcq5x5osivvngcqnbodtk qie73ow5q

[Winehole23]

is "freedom of navigation" US policy anymore?

not rhetorical, looks like Trump might be satisfied with a personal cut of the proceeds


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:auy2qp35r5bkipvygsyynxca/bafkreigofj5fk6itjuvzjus6nx57urk2v2zweb4flwgbnnxsd y3tz7y2tm

[Winehole23]

https://media1.tenor.com/images/4b2b2f02bf941fdd063b98ab9ee0a579/tenor.gif?itemid=12812844

[Blake]

Nixon-style price controls coming back?


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7upoypvlxudsiv4pzbi5jtwf/bafkreihfxxfzmqycdy26cscfh43eul45zvdxrhvpjjybo334b 67ldh64xa

All the farmers have to do is pass the cost along until the consumer pays for it. Just like with tariffs.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:buy3qvqcj3o76leo6ap7pn2p/bafkreiezbzuw54g2r5szdolf4gpeqafqaxgp6ctqyuql2xl7c z4qaildke

[ChumpDumper]

So back to ending a civilization?

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreido4tzhjy7wkquu74qv2wit4czndnnexptnx3ptqs7vt uc7kfq3uq

[Winehole23]

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2026/04/11/multimedia/11DC-TRUMP-01-jctg/11DC-TRUMP-01-jctg-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale

[Blake]

Priorities

[Winehole23]

I guess we'll see if Trump has the stomach to fire on Chinese, Indian and Russian tankers in order to keep the Persian Gulf closed



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:blass7dzfpqbs7k4iauav6pz/bafkreihrdtjo2p2c6awsq2kvxhmu7ncvrr2fnn2hhyocommvi hcd6kghbq

[Spurs Homer]

Trump raped and killed children...little children...

[Winehole23]

is the US going to start interdicting flagged ships of noncombatants?

or is this another empty threat?

[Winehole23]

So back to ending a civilization?since when is less than one day "marathon negotiations"?

[ChumpDumper]

since when is less than one day "marathon negotiations"?

THEY HAD A WORKING DINNER

[Blake]

So back to ending a civilization?

Trump will TACO back on that and say we already did end them.

OBLITERATED!! *

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreidueednsmtadj5hc6revz3co3l4kyakhagnxgszpmyki yvt2x2liq

[Millennial_Messiah]

Unless Trump bullies his way to a 3rd term.

won't happen

stop mope coping

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreicsgjet2zzhosqwkvinanaysgcwrjgdob6jrn5bxi5ch len5j5554

[SnakeBoy]

Destroys Iran, blockades the Straight, and oil can't hold $100 lol

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/08/28/Photos/ZH/MW-HQ309_king_t_20190828114622_ZH.jpg?uuid=fbfaf360-c9aa-11e9-a09a-9c8e992d421e

[Winehole23]

if Iran were destroyed there'd be no need for a blockade

a couple of weeks ago Trump lifted the oil embargo on Iran, going back on that so quickly looks like flightiness

and maybe it is, Trump's word is worthless

[Blake]

Destroys Iran, blockades the Straight, and oil can't hold $100 lol

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/08/28/Photos/ZH/MW-HQ309_king_t_20190828114622_ZH.jpg?uuid=fbfaf360-c9aa-11e9-a09a-9c8e992d421e

How much are you paying for gas?

[ChumpDumper]

How much is your wife paying for your gas?

fixed

[ChumpDumper]

Destroys Iran, blockades the Straight, and oil can't hold $100 lol

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2019/08/28/Photos/ZH/MW-HQ309_king_t_20190828114622_ZH.jpg?uuid=fbfaf360-c9aa-11e9-a09a-9c8e992d421esnacks loses again. Declares victory.

[Winehole23]

shit will start hitting the fan soon


Europe has “maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday in a wide-ranging Associated Press interview, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war (https://apnews.com/article/energy-eu-oil-gas-iran-supply-65e520c30d94e7b6184e69d37a7cc09a).


IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz (https://apnews.com/article/the-worlds-most-important-21-miles-0000019d2fbfd29daffdefffc72e0000).


“In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world,” he said.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-europe-jet-fuel-flight-cancellations-birol-6e67fafd493861b3858de5548aa77703

[Winehole23]

US credibility and prestige is cratering under Trump, especially in the GCC

They all sucked up to Trump for protection, Trump blundered into a stupid war that rekt their shit


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lthk4hcclkkh6wsvsib76zmv/bafkreifs5pykkzr3spg5g2gswum7qzmqlb3wh2saf7ruj2ipb btxv4kchm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiadnae3cyfio2qdargosdsduoru2kee26wlzpuywwi6i 2g2svk2dm

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreigbmprhjdry5jzwmri3y5tnjkk6ni5yptblu2oy5yays goma2tkzu

[Winehole23]

Strait of Iran?



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreifqkgc4dxvekkvvzsjj3g5o7p6gpxqwkqpb5tcbacrto efvyy4o3u

[Winehole23]

if Trump's war of choice leads to shortages of meat in the USA, I don't think the GOP will ever recover

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5hyjbx4hnlxe5il24ydnn4sr/bafkreidltcthwztbtcpe6lvxtsgvkwqvfbdkcwftrjy2v76u4 7fq5tj5zm

[TSA]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiadnae3cyfio2qdargosdsduoru2kee26wlzpuywwi6i 2g2svk2dm

https://x.com/axios/status/2045116970194882978

They get their own money back for giving up their own Uranium. Quite the fucking deal for the entire world if this comes to fruition.

[Winehole23]

https://x.com/axios/status/2045116970194882978

They get their own money back for giving up their own Uranium. Quite the fucking deal for the entire world if this comes to fruition.the devil's in the details

where did you come out on Obama giving Iran its own money back for a nuclear deal that didn't require going to war or causing a global supply shock?

[TSA]

the devil's in the details

where did you come out on Obama giving Iran its own money back for a nuclear deal that didn't require going to war or causing a global supply shock?

JCPOA was nothing but a kick the can down the road ban-daid filled with sunset provisions. If this current deal as reported goes through it's completely different and an actual solution.

[Winehole23]

also, the 10 day truce leaves the global economy dependent on the state of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and the US dependent on the conduct of its junior partner in the war

very precarious

Bibi can't be happy Trump forced this on him and may blow it up

[Winehole23]

JCPOA was nothing but a kick the can down the road ban-daid filled with sunset provisions. If this current deal as reported goes through it's completely different and an actual solution.that's very sanguine

what are the terms of the deal as reported?

[Blake]

https://x.com/axios/status/2045116970194882978

They get their own money back for giving up their own Uranium. Quite the fucking deal for the entire world if this comes to fruition.

OBLITERATED!!! *

[Winehole23]

TSA just assuming Trump's surrender deal with Iran will proceed with complete success given the very bad choices he's made so far is TDS

[ChumpDumper]

https://x.com/axios/status/2045116970194882978

They get their own money back for giving up their own Uranium. Quite the fucking deal for the entire world if this comes to fruition.How much did Bibi's war cost the US?

You will never say anything about this.

Quite the fucking deal for Bibi.

Could've just paid Iran off in the first place.

You're a fucking idiot.

[ChumpDumper]

JCPOA was nothing but a kick the can down the road ban-daid filled with sunset provisions. If this current deal as reported goes through it's completely different and an actual solution.The JCPOA was an initial deal that could've established trust in the US that was destroyed 73 years ago.

Trump just destroyed it again, along with the standing of the US in the entire world.

You're a laughing stock who still believes in Pizzagate.

[ChumpDumper]

Why didn't we just give Iran the $50 billion this war has cost us so far?

[ChumpDumper]

JCPOA was nothing but a kick the can down the road ban-daid filled with sunset provisions. If this current deal as reported goes through it's completely different and an actual solution.Tell me you didn't actually read any reports without telling me you didn't actually read any reports.

Sunset provisions being discussed in this kick the can down the road band-aid:

The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a "voluntary" moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.

The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.

As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground. The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.

https://archive.is/20260417152551/https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-us-deal-20-billion-frozen-funds-uranium#selection-749.0-753.82

Seriously, all this could have been done while both sides were bound by the JCPOA and Iran didn't have a stockpile of enriched uranium on its side of the bargaining table.

Trump fucked up. There is no excuse for this.

[Blake]

Tell me you didn't actually read any reports without telling me you didn't actually read any reports.

Sunset provisions being discussed in this kick the can down the road band-aid:

The three-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two sides are negotiating over also includes a "voluntary" moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.

The U.S. demanded in the last round of talks that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with five years. The mediators are still trying to close the gap.

As part of the MOU, Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground. The existing underground facilities would remain out of commission.

https://archive.is/20260417152551/https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-us-deal-20-billion-frozen-funds-uranium#selection-749.0-753.82

Seriously, all this could have been done while both sides were bound by the JCPOA and Iran didn't have a stockpile of enriched uranium on its side of the bargaining table.

Trump fucked up. There is no excuse for this.

Why aren't we sending them back to the Stone Age instead of making any deals at all at this point?

[Blake]

How much did Bibi's war cost the US?

You will never say anything about this.

Quite the fucking deal for Bibi.

Could've just paid Iran off in the first place.

You're a fucking idiot.

Never. More mental gymnastics to come though.

[Winehole23]

another Trump surrender to radical Islamists, if it holds

just another Trump head fake if it doesn't


It is now painfully clear that Trump has offered Iran everything they've ever wanted and more just to get a short reprieve in the *headlines* without actually fixing any of the substantive problems wrecking the global economy.He got the Iranians and Israelis to playact a fictional ceasefire.

[SnakeBoy]

Iran capitulates to Trump

Libs cry

[Winehole23]

^^^ rectal-cranial inversion

[Winehole23]

Trump is the one begging for a deal here

[Blake]

Iran capitulates to Trump

Libs cry

Rofl. Of course that's how you stupid Trump tards see it.

What exactly did we win here?

[Spurs Homer]

Of course - we should ALL trust and believe the pedophile rapist liar!

hahahahahahahahahaha!

[Winehole23]

Rofl. Of course that's how you stupid Trump tards see it.

What exactly did we win here?the opportunity to pay Iran's mad mullahs $20B just for the privilege of talking to them, maybe

it would be a small price to pay to get the global economy back on track if that were all it cost

looks like Iran might end up with control of Hormuz too -- they already have it now, thanks to Trump and Bibi


NUMBER OF IRAN PARL’T SAY WITHOUT THE RELEASE OF FROZEN ASSETS BELONGING TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS WOULD BE A MISTAKE AND UNACCEPTABLE - IRAN INTL

[Blake]

the opportunity to pay Iran's mad mullahs $20B just for the privilege of talking to them, maybe

it would be a small price to pay to get the global economy back on track if that were all it cost

looks like Iran might end up with control of Hormuz too -- they already have it now, thanks to Trump and Bibi

Trump tards cheering for Iranians to have control of Hormuz.

WE WIN!!!!

[ChumpDumper]

Iran capitulates to Trump

Libs cry

You're sending Iran over 15x more pallets of cash than Obama.

After blowing $50,000,000,000 and a big chunk of the US arsenal.

You lost.

[Winehole23]

is Hormuz open?

has Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium?

there are limits to Trump's ability to create reality with his own words, a limit we've seen a couple of dozen times in this war already



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jb2q4yqmgpmefxd4xx66gepm/bafkreib5yexdduc4wofyzq4p6n3oou72wcyetc7n7ab34ywf7 ngxr6htmq

[Winehole23]

seems different from what Trump said


Iran has told mediators it will continue to limit the number of ships allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls for the remaining period of the cease-fire, officials familiar with the matter said.-WSJ

[ChumpDumper]

Flurries of activity always on Fridays and Mondays to feign results. Trump is basically a lazy middle school student.

[Winehole23]

and an active swindler

the very large bets placed on war outcomes with great timing are highly suggestive

[ChumpDumper]

That is if they're even in the Persian Gulf to struggle.

And yes, were I as stupid as your Trump in starting this stupid war, I would've delayed the decommissioning of the proven Avenger class minesweepers and positioned them to operate in the Strait of Hormuz. Hell, I would've gotten the remaining Avenger class ships underway from the far east as well.

Absofuckinglutely.

How does it feel to be wrong about literally everything, TSA?

I really want to know.

A pair of Avenger class mine-hunters homeported in Japan have been tracked sailing westward out of the Pacific Ocean in recent days.

https://www.twz.com/sea/flurry-of-navy-minesweepers-appear-to-be-heading-toward-the-middle-east

Turns out I'm smarter than TSA, his cult leader god Trump and everyone around Trump.

But it's a very low bar.

It's not like these fucking idiots are above seeking counsel from internet shitposters. They should just hit me up instead of Curtis Yarvin.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bdvnkv3wu5kgtmvto4xsp6on/bafkreib6x4kxvs3q6p5lp7jkbi24vhcplvkft5yqd6ugq2jbf txyvuobqy

[Winehole23]

logistics are gay, hunger is the best sauce


https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2026/04/15/USAT/89634292007-image-20260415-t-193712886-1.jpg?width=300&height=442&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/iran-war-mail-packages-middle-east/89609308007/

[Winehole23]

you know who had a worldwide logistics operation that could swing into play and bridge the gaps when the US went to war?

USAID

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:bdvnkv3wu5kgtmvto4xsp6on/bafkreib6x4kxvs3q6p5lp7jkbi24vhcplvkft5yqd6ugq2jbf txyvuobqy

Unusual but no longer surprising.

[Blake]

A pair of Avenger class mine-hunters homeported in Japan have been tracked sailing westward out of the Pacific Ocean in recent days.

https://www.twz.com/sea/flurry-of-navy-minesweepers-appear-to-be-heading-toward-the-middle-east

Turns out I'm smarter than TSA, his cult leader god Trump and everyone around Trump.

But it's a very low bar.

It's not like these fucking idiots are above seeking counsel from internet shitposters. They should just hit me up instead of Curtis Yarvin.

Fucking idiots. Fucking idiots.

[Blake]

Flurries of activity always on Fridays and Mondays to feign results. Trump is basically a lazy middle school student.

The teacher gives him an F but he declares the teacher is wrong and then gives himself an A.

[Spurs Homer]

Suckerz!

Again...

[SnakeBoy]

2045154015130870010


Doomberg predicting $40 oil by end of summer:wow

[Winehole23]

it's backwardation, the divergence of the prices of physical oil and oil futures are a symptom of the supply crunch, and may not be a reliable indicator of the future price

all depends on how long the supply shortage lasts

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/implications-wti-oil-futures-backwardation-144500240.html

[Winehole23]

$40 physical barrels of WTI this summer would suggest rampant demand destruction due to economic contraction

$40 bbl is way below the breakeven price for WTI fracking -- wildly uneconomical to even bring to market

[Blake]

2045154015130870010


Doomberg predicting $40 oil by end of summer:wow

What is your wife paying for in gas right now and why? Since you don't know, ask her.

[Winehole23]

the Strait of Hormuz isn't open because the USA is still running a blockade

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u4o26nximjdtgooqshfz45zr/bafkreidtyopegvscx4xc5ki32ktvvobwfhhbiwtdkohkbxgbz z7e2sxppm

[Winehole23]

regional quagmire


A senior Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post that, unlike in the past, the United States now intends to actively lead efforts to disarm Hezbollah and is prepared to use American resources to achieve this goal. “Trump (https://www.jpost.com/international/article-893316) wants this to happen, so this time the US will be far more involved,” the official said.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-893321

[Winehole23]

The Art of Pretending there’s a Deal

[ChumpDumper]

2045154015130870010


Doomberg predicting $40 oil by end of summer:wow

Since you know all about the deal, can I see the actual agreement in writing, snacks?

Link to the full signed document, pls.

Man up.

[Winehole23]

there isn't a signed deal, that's why Trump can lie freely about it

[Winehole23]

Nickel and copper are downstream wreckage of the sulfur squeeze

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-wars-sulfurous-fallout-spreads-copper-nickel-2026-04-17/

[Winehole23]

"open or rapidly opening"


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:767ycrlfjmddxgnxsylkfbrd/bafkreidewukycypkxgqrs6wnzoznzx6cwwyagvoes6rw2hjdx r425uulce

[Blake]

China good now

[Winehole23]

There's no deal

Trump is propping up a strawman to soothe the markets and -- probably, another possibility is that Trump is looking for an exit ramp -- to buy time for another round of attacks


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreifsr6pjqlsfawkngr5cugiyturvplvmqwoqvey3oxzs7 layk4fbpu
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreihxt2gsqgbpazoiqjbgyxzqn3m26orxnacg2i3a5xskk m4v4biiz4

[Winehole23]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/merchant-vessels-report-gunfire-they-attempt-cross-hormuz-shipping-sources-say-2026-04-18/

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreihhlgjtkwlqkhqktdwlqaxv72p32iz62ea2hohvxlxp6 w7fmidtke

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:z6rujpf4u56jfie7aqic2nfg/bafkreiavrip73l6dp2iznrmh7ohliujpzm5grq4cvlvntr5wr ofcdugsty

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreifiitb4vhaajkzemozlvlj2v4adkpyupzys5xut5ujqb 3zsya376m

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:rp4rgamibrblojq7f7pgmuxc/bafkreig6ccnd3vl5d6nnzjretmviv4tqx7n2kvztzk2ezcz3y xapnwnc64

[Blake]

There's no deal

Trump is propping up a strawman to soothe the markets and -- probably, another possibility is that Trump is looking for an exit ramp -- to buy time for another round of attacks


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreifsr6pjqlsfawkngr5cugiyturvplvmqwoqvey3oxzs7 layk4fbpu
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreihxt2gsqgbpazoiqjbgyxzqn3m26orxnacg2i3a5xskk m4v4biiz4

But tsa said the Iranians don't have any more gun boats

[Winehole23]

TSA mindlessly repeats regime propaganda, it's pretty much the only thing he does

[ChumpDumper]

Friday: Trump gooses the market declaring the Strait of Iran fully open for business!

Saturday:

2045509656269742161

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2045509656269742161

The fact that an apparently functioning human being like TSA always has and always will take Donald fucking Trump at his word with no other corroboration or evidence is astounding.

[Winehole23]

the conceit that Iran is already beaten when it still controls the Strait of Hormuz is a bit of a stretch


"American military and intelligence officials estimate that, after weeks of war, Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage..." www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u... (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/us/politics/iran-hormuz-strait-trump.html)

[Winehole23]

The fact that an apparently functioning human being like TSA always has and always will take Donald fucking Trump at his word with no other corroboration or evidence is astounding.Führerprinzip (http://ttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781118474396.wbept0396?msockid=38320f5ea70560b908 ab1860a6a561e5), tbh


According to this principle, the task of forging a strong national unity requires leadership of a strong, charismatic individual to whom absolute or near-absolute obedience is given by all members of society. Under these conditions such a leader, according to the Führerprinzip, can then represent the concrete embodiment of the state, of its laws, and of the will of the nation as a whole.

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nyjm4ylfid2a7mjm6varxuiq/bafkreihtn26l4eyvyf5hlx5pe2lad54yvppfyjmx6bz4qqo66 7z5h2lemy

[Winehole23]

escalation is the trap, Trump keeps falling right into it



The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-military-prepares-to-board-iran-linked-ships-in-coming-days-officials-say-4dc0a718

[Blake]

Friday: Trump gooses the market declaring the Strait of Iran fully open for business!

Saturday:

2045509656269742161

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2045509656269742161

The fact that an apparently functioning human being like TSA always has and always will take Donald fucking Trump at his word with no other corroboration or evidence is astounding.

To me it's astounding the large number of Americans that still do. They figure if talking heads on a place like Fox and Friends can figure out the 4d chess moves then they can appeal to that authority.

"Welp I guess we gots to pay high gas now tuh pay low gas later"

Just insane.

[Blake]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nyjm4ylfid2a7mjm6varxuiq/bafkreihtn26l4eyvyf5hlx5pe2lad54yvppfyjmx6bz4qqo66 7z5h2lemy

TACOnomics

[Blake]

the conceit that Iran is already beaten when it still controls the Strait of Hormuz is a bit of a stretch

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u... (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/us/politics/iran-hormuz-strait-trump.html)

First it was "obliterated"

Then like "80-90% for this

Now it's "40-60" for that

What's next?

[Blake]

General Caine this morning. The US has destroyed:
- ~80% of Iran’s air defense systems (>1500 AD targets)
- >450 ballistic missile storage facilities
- >800 one-way attack drone storage facilities
- >200 C2 nodes
- 90% of the Navy (150 ships) and half of IRGC small attack boats
- 95% of naval mines
- 90% of weapons factories including every factory that produced Shaheds and their guidance systems
- 80% of missile production facilities
- >20 naval production and fabrication facilities damaged or destroyed
- 80% of nuclear industrial base

https://x.com/DAlperovitch/status/2041932473605530012

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2041855087501304068

I wonder if tsa remembers this post

[Winehole23]

TSA never cops to a bum take, but he remembers every slight

[Winehole23]

Michael Rubin thinks Erdogan in 2026 is Nasser in 1966 -- a burgeoning existential threat to Israel

There are a number of ways this war could spiral out of control, one of them would be Israel attacking Turkey or the reverse


Behind-the-scenes, Turkey not only seeks to enhance Syria’s capability to attack Israel but has also replaced Iran as a lifeline to Hezbollah, according to defense and intelligence professionals from multiple countries in the region. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/04/destroy-the-f-16s-israel-could-launch-a-preemptive-attack-on-turkey/

[Winehole23]

Trump, setting up his next market manipulating public announcement, casually threatens to kill millions of Iranian civilians



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreieaahymcy6ib6lr52vwlsdbbpjokonfovvevgfy6izze qjnh6fw5i
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/bafkreifnvkamrpcjhtcoslizpn5myptwh2isg4xudtggw4rpd jphp7pp54

[Winehole23]

indirectly, the whole world has been affected by Trump/Bibi's harebrained war of choice and will be for years to come


The World Food Programme estimates that if the blockage continues until mid-year, an extra 45m lives will be at risk, on top of the more than 300m people who already struggle to feed themselveshttps://www.economist.com/international/2026/04/16/millions-will-go-hungry-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed

[Winehole23]

this level of approval for the war is a likely ceiling


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ihpglfqq3dapqjmwl2ntktil/bafkreibbwtwcqxaihevsuote7f5it6njetoud4xvtotdcwqnm gt4naoklq

[Winehole23]

that's been the trend so far


(Reuters) - European allies fear an inexperienced U.S. negotiating team is pushing for a swift, headline‑grabbing framework deal with Iran that could entrench rather than resolve deeper problems, diplomats with past experience dealing with Tehran said.

[Winehole23]

"aides kept the president out of the room"



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:svawqo4jxobyyuqmixplvcux/bafkreiajprccusbiheswsng2e7nv52jmualevf6od5uwwgqp7 mvneej6nehttps://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca

[Winehole23]

sending two real-estate scammers and JD Vance to parley with Iran is a mismatch not necessarily in the US's favor

[Winehole23]

also, whatever deal that eventually gets signed can be blown up on a whim by a vexed dementia patient


They worry Washington, eager to claim a diplomatic win for President Donald Trump, could lock in a superficial agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief, then struggle through months or years of technically complex follow‑on talks.-Reuters

[Winehole23]

which is noticed by Iran


: “In light of Trump's statements about holding negotiations and inconsistency with what is actually happening between Iran and the U.S., we believe we’re facing a deception by the enemy and we’re on the verge of a new round of escalation.”-Al Jazeera

[Winehole23]

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:arzk2cz2s2kdlwt523tlompz/bafkreier5feq55ngrovxg5dgxgypavf5gyjd2obl2owfhrjf3 qq6szx4ba

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:44vryxuypemvgsck5xkhppf3/bafkreiek3cqwz6qbtx4l5sbvjnfl7j7dltoralw4nvh464scb 7g3zlooj4


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6sfanwmqr6yr4kavngda4dre/bafkreiewdpyqloimwp7ar62u222hewk6ma37v64wzzv3ul2fk bpwjwb4xu

[Blake]

Trump, setting up his next market manipulating public announcement, casually threatens to kill millions of Iranian civilians

So does Trump want the Strait open or closed? I don't think he knows.

[Winehole23]

deciding whether Trump or Iran is the bigger liar isn't easy, they both lie their asses off


Iran rejected taking part in the second round of talks with the United States, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Sunday.

“Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-893089), and the ongoing naval blockade (https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-893422), which it considers a breach of the ceasefire,” the IRNA said.

The IRNA also accused the US of playing a “blame game,” lying about Iran’s participation in a second round of talks in order to put pressure on the country.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-893538

[Winehole23]

So does Trump want the Strait open or closed? I don't think he knows.it's time to take the car keys away from pepaw

[Winehole23]

Trump's war of choice has already rekt the UAE


UAE CENBANK GOV. BALAMA RAISED IDEA OF CURRENCY-SWAP LINE WITH BESSENT & TREASURY, FEDERAL OFFICIALS IN MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON LAST WEEK- WSJhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/uae-asks-us-for-a-wartime-financial-lifeline/ar-AA21gBXO

[Winehole23]

like mass starvation, a worldwide depression and social chaos

the chance of Trump starting WWIII because he can't surrender to Iran without losing face and/or Iran won't let him at this point -- is well north of zero


The silver lining is that a maximally catastrophic outcome could take out nearly every shithole regime in the Middle East.

Unfortunately, lots of horrific things are likely to happen if you simultaneously collapse every shithole regime in the Middle East and destroy the infrastructure and economy.

[Winehole23]

(I blame this on Iran too, they're misplaying their poker hand badly -- intransigeance on both sides is a danger to the whole world)

[Winehole23]

the GCC's attempts to bribe and ingratiate Trump didn't pay off


Trapped between their chief ally and their neighbor, (the Gulf states) are now forced to rethink their security strategies.

The war has caused a state of “strategic shock” for Qatar and its neighbors, said Rashid Al-Mohanadi, the vice president of the Center for International Policy Research, a think tank in Qatar.

“There was an assumption that such a big move in the region, like starting a war with Iran, would at least happen in consultation with the Gulf,” he said. “We thought we had a better working relationship with the United States.”
…
In recent years, the government sought to cultivate close ties with President Trump, donating a Boeing 747 jetliner to him. A Qatari government-owned real estate firm sealed a deal last year with Mr. Trump’s family business, the Trump Organization, to construct a Trump-branded golf course in Qatar.

And when Mr. Trump visited Qatar last May, he signed an agreement with officials there “to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion,” the White House announced.
Despite all of that, Qatar was able to exert little control over a war that directly involved it.

The uncomfortable realization that Israel appears to have more influence over Mr. Trump’s decisions than Gulf leaders do has reverberated through Gulf royal courts, analysts said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/world/middleeast/qatar-iran-us-war.html

[Winehole23]

DON'T TELL THEM I AM UNDER PRESSURE



https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreicljxmq2ma2q2ajehktigkvh6ba4ognemeizglwdhcie ywoblih7a

[Blake]

DON'T TELL THEM I AM UNDER PRESSURE

Lol "relatively quickly"

So he's saying we could be there for years?

[Blake]

2045154015130870010


Doomberg predicting $40 oil by end of summer:wow

Where's Snakes today? Not next week. Today.

[Winehole23]

Lol "relatively quickly"

So he's saying we could be there for years?if Hormuz is closed another 3 months, a worldwide recession is possible

[Blake]

Oil prices are rebounding today, after the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship Sunday, knocking hopes of a peace deal between Washington and Tehran during talks expected this week.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has risen 6.3% to $96 a barrel. WTI, the US benchmark, is up 7% at $88.3 a barrel.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel

[Winehole23]

Trump is largely responsible for the strategic mess he's in now


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wjq4sy2q7efirropxrimfptf/bafkreie6phksugt5vlo3qan3xilgwnedvlhtyxlno3wmtywwj fbqya32tu

[Blake]

Trump is largely responsible for the strategic mess he's in now


https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wjq4sy2q7efirropxrimfptf/bafkreie6phksugt5vlo3qan3xilgwnedvlhtyxlno3wmtywwj fbqya32tu

What a stupid piece of shit.