***** The Official 2014 Avante Football Thread *****

[Avante]

Yeah. I was just pointing out that the spread very clearly knows that home teams tend to win straight up, so I wouldn't really call betting on them straight up a "trick".

Whatever.

The bottom line in picking straight up is home/road. It's huge!

A must for any NFL gambler

http://www.nfl.com/standings

[spurraider21]

avante do you know what the word credibility means?

i know you have an aversion to reading books and such, but i'm sure you've come across that word.

[Avante]

avante do you know what the word credibility means?

i know you have an aversion to reading books and such, but i'm sure you've come across that word.

Do you understand the words.....common sense? Why did I play 330 on that Atlanta game, why did I play the Chargers vs Seattle, the 0-2 Giants vs the 2-0 Texans? Why do I have a system already up three games?

Dude, come on man.

How do I play a 110-64 system (slight variation) for years and lose?

[spurraider21]

Do you understand the words.....common sense? Why did I play 330 on that Atlanta game, why did I play the Chargers vs Seattle, the 0-2 Giants vs the 2-0 Texans? Why do I have a system already up three games?

Dude, come on man.
you didn't answer my question

[Chinook]

Whatever.

The bottom line in picking straight up is home/road. It's huge!

A must for any NFL gambler

http://www.nfl.com/standings

According to a little math, your strategy would have at best a 73-percent success rate (straight up).

It obviously relies on some assumptions.

First, that the bottom-five teams would lose all their home games (unrealistic, but not horribly so, as they'll probably only win one or two each and this is just an example)

Second, the odds of the remaining 27 teams winning their home games is uniform (also unrealistic, but again not horribly so because it evens out the first assumption)

Third, that the total number of home wins in a season would be 146 (57 percent of the 256 total home games in a season rounded to the nearest whole number)

With those assumptions in mind, betting on all home teams except the bottom five (against whom you bet regardless) would give you 186 wins for a season. Once you divide that by 256, you get a 72.7 percent success rate.

[Avante]

you didn't answer my question

You didn't answer mine, so you think that system is bogus?

[spurraider21]

i asked you first

[Avante]

According to a little math, your strategy would have a 73-percent success rate (straight up).

It obviously relies on some assumptions.

First, that the bottom-five teams would lose all their home games (unrealistic, but not horribly so, as they'll probably only win one or two each and this is just an example)

Second, the odds of the remaining 27 teams winning their home games is uniform (also unrealistic, but again not horribly so because it evens out the first assumption)

Third, that the total number of home wins in a season would be 146 (57 percent of the 256 total home games in a season rounded to the nearest whole number)

With those assumptions in mind, betting on all home teams except the bottom five (against whom you bet regardless) would give you 186 wins for a season. Once you divide that by 256, you get a 72.7 percent success rate.

Where are we going with this? If youi can hit 10/11 each week picking straight up you'll win most contests.

[Avante]

i asked you first

I started doing this about 20 years ago, usually hitting around 55=60% then about five years ago I discoverd .....play the top five ATS teams from the previous season***....so I have been. With a few exceptions. You sw how it works last week...3-1.

We fucked around here a couple years with the dummies like Blake/CN just for yucks. Not this season and it's already pretty obvious where it's heading.

*** if the coach/QB are the same.

[Chinook]

Where are we going with this? If youi can hit 10/11 each week picking straight up you'll win most contests.

Over the course of a season, such a strategy would lose to someone who's just picking the Vegas favorite. You'd hit on at most 186 of them, and the Vegas-picker would hit on 192. That's like having a complicated strategy for picking the side of a coin that yields a 49-percent success rate when just always picking one or the other will get you a 50-percent rate.

[DD]

Avante, what do you think of my 10-1 record this week?

[Avante]

Over the course of a season, such a strategy would lose to someone who's just picking the Vegas favorite. You'd hit on at most 186 of them, and the Vegas-picker would hit on 192.

Are you telling me ya just pick the favorites?

[Avante]

Avante, what do you think of my 10-1 record this week?

I'd have to have you break each game down and explain why you made the play. If ya can't do that....lucky!

[Chinook]

Are you telling me ya just pick the favorites?

Lol, no. I don't look at Vegas odds at all. So I don't even know who the favorite is most weeks. I only make picks on here and even then only during the playoffs and as part of the discussion for those games.

[spurraider21]

I started doing this about 20 years ago, usually hitting around 55=60% then about five years ago I discoverd .....play the top five ATS teams from the previous season***....so I have been. With a few exceptions. You sw how it works last week...3-1.

We fucked around here a couple years with the dummies like Blake/CN just for yucks. Not this season and it's already pretty obvious where it's heading.

*** if the coach/QB are the same.
why can't you answer a very simple question?

[Avante]

why can't you answer a very simple question?

The same reason you can't...."you're right the Raiders suck in the eastern time zone"...regardless of who the coach/players are, so I was wrong about that.

[Avante]

Lol, no. I don't look at Vegas odds at all. So I don't even know who the favorite is most weeks. I only make picks on here and even then only during the playoffs and as part of the discussion for those games.

So what do you look for when making your picks?

[Chinook]

So what do you look for when making your picks?

Usually the teams themselves. By the playoffs, we have a pretty good idea of who everyone is and how they match up with other teams. Obviously I look at some historic things like, "Player X is a choker" or, "So and so doesn't play well away from home." But it's rarely statistical.

[Avante]

Usually the teams themselves. By the playoffs, we have a pretty good idea of who everyone is and how they match up with other teams. Obviously I look at some historic things like, "Player X is a choker" or, "So and so doesn't play well away from home." But it's rarely statistical.

So you totally ignore...

heading into a bye week
second road game in a row
second home game in a row
coming out of a bye
after a big division game
after a Thursday/Monday night
playing on a Thursday/Monday night

None of that matters?

[Chinook]

So you totally ignore...

heading into a bye week
second road game in a row
second home game in a row
coming out of a bye
after a big division game
after a Thursday/Monday night
playing on a Thursday/Monday night

None of that matters?

Almost none of that applies to playoff games. The home/away stuff factors in a little bit if there is an egregious trend (like with Seattle a couple of years ago). But it's more of a season thing than a historical thing.

[Avante]

Almost none of that applies to playoff games. The home/away stuff factors in a little bit if there is an egregious trend (like with Seattle a couple of years ago). But it's more of a season thing than a historical thing.

I confess I;m having a hard time understanding you. You are just talking playoff games?

[Chinook]

I confess I;m having a hard time understanding you. You are just talking playoff games?


Lol, no. I don't look at Vegas odds at all. So I don't even know who the favorite is most weeks. I only make picks on here and even then only during the playoffs and as part of the discussion for those games.

[spurraider21]

I confess I;m having a hard time understanding
well there's a fuckin surprise :rolleyes

[Avante]

well there's a fuckin surprise :rolleyes

That coming from a guy who...."how can any of that matter when there are different coachs and players involved"...as you watch the Raiders lose another eastern time zone game, hahaha!!!!!!

[Avante]

Chinook

So why all that stuff about picking straight up during the season?

[spurraider21]

That coming from a guy who...."how can any of that matter when there are different coachs and players involved"...as you watch the Raiders lose another eastern time zone game, hahaha!!!!!!
the raiders are a terrible team. there's a good chance that they'll lose any given sunday regardless of who or where they play

[DD]

I'd have to have you break each game down and explain why you made the play. If ya can't do that....lucky!

Vikings(+10.5) at Saints: Obvious choice with AP gone and the Saints desperate for a win in their home-opener. Barely got it, but it's a W
Colts(-7) at Jaguars: Jacksonville is the worst team in football and the Colts couldn't afford to drop to 0-3.
Chargers(+2.5) at Bills: Homer pick.
Cowboys(-1) at Rams: Romo and Murray have a history of great games against StL.
Titans(+7) at Bengals: Bengals have won 10-11 home (regular season) games in a row, and the Titans are awful.
Redskins(+6.5) at Eagles: The Redskins offense looks ridiculously potent with Cousins at the helm.
Texans(-2) at Giants: Texans (much like the Bills), aren't nearly as good as their first 2 games made them out to be. Giants at home in a MW situation.
Ravens(-1.5) at Browns: laid off
Raiders(+14) at Patriots: laid off
Packers(+2.5) at Lions: Packers have looked incredibly weak thus far.
49ers(-3) at Cardinals: I honestly thought Carson Palmer was playing, but it worked out anyways.
Broncos(+4.5) at Seahawks: laid off
Chiefs(+4) at Dolphins: Dolphins have no business laying more than 3 pts to anybody
Steelers(+3) at Panthers: laid off
Bears(+2.5) at Jets: Cutler always wins on MNF

[Chinook]

Chinook

So why all that stuff about picking straight up during the season?

I was explaining some math. I don't have to gamble to understand gambling strategies.

[Avante]

the raiders are a terrible team. there's a good chance that they'll lose any given sunday regardless of who or where they play

Are you just flat out stupid?

If you watched the Jets/Pats vs your Raiders games, the tv annoucers talked about how poorly the Raiders play back east, what you missed that? Dude, you told me all that stuff was bullshit, ya know different coachs/players. so why the games? How about...Avante, yep, you're right.....ok little man?

Do you know your Raiders have won in Kansas City five times since 2007, so no they don;'t suck everywhere, so get it right....ok? Oh yeah, they've also won in Denver 4 times since 2008.

[Avante]

I was explaining some math. I don't have to gamble to understand gambling strategies.

Math has nothing to do with this however.

[Chinook]

Math has nothing to do with this however.

Of course it does. All betting relies on math.

[Avante]

Of course it does. All betting relies on math.

You're right if we are talking trends, $$$$ and the line.

[Chinook]

You're right if we are talking trends, $$$$ and the line.

We're talking strategy. The one you explained to me would win at most 73 percent of the time (likely in the 65-percent range). Simply picking the Vegas favorite would yield a 75-percent rate. So your strategy is not an improvement over the norm. It may beat out commentators on ESPN, but it shouldn't win in a pool with people who don't overthink themselves.

[Avante]

Let's look at...

Tampa Bay
Jacksonville
Tennessee

In 2013 those three went 17-27-4 ATS.

Now those three will face...Steelers, Chargers and Colts all as RD's. Hmmmm?

[Avante]

We're talking strategy. The one you explained to me would win at most 73 percent of the time (likely in the 65-percent range). Simply picking the Vegas favorite would yield a 75-percent rate. So your strategy is not an improvement over the norm. It may beat out commentators on ESPN, but it shouldn't win in a pool with people who don't overthink themselves.

Trust me on this one....you won't find any football pool where most those playing really understand anything having to do with picking football games. You say...."how do they play on the road coming off a bye"...and it's...huh?

[Avante]

Danny Woodhead out for the season. That'll hurt, he's a good back especially on third down, he'll be missed.

Smart move picking up Donald Brown.

While here...

I said this the day he was drafted......Geno Smith is not an NFL QB, his decision making sucks. Yep...nailed it!

How does any team let Chris Ivory go?

What was the big deal over Nick Foles getting ....WHAM!...he was in the play.

The Niners really miss Smith/Bowman.

Who will the Buc;s beat?

[ChumpDumper]

Look at the action I get with this, do I know human nature or what, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Love it!It's human nature to try and downplay laughably enormous betting losses.

Keep trying.

[Avante]

The Jags getting 13.5?

Let's break it down....

The Jags on the road under Gus Bradley are....3-7 SU. Last season they got double digits 8 times and went...3-5ATS. They did lose to the Chargers 24-6 at home.

Their average game in 2013 was Jags 15 Opponet 28. Yep ...13...point losers. On the road they lost by...


10
28
14
16
7
20

So losing by 14 is a very real possibility.

The Chargers as double digit HF....1-1...under Mike McCoy.

As we know the Chargers are looking great right now and the Jags suck. Now toss this in the mix...the Chargers have covered 10 in a row vs the AFC South and have beat the Jags....

38-13 2010
38-14 2011 on the road
24-6 2014 on the road

That's 100-33 or 33-11 average.

Hmmmmm?

[spurraider21]

that line intrigued me as well, though we've seen a new qb spark an entire team. even the defenses play with more heart if they feel they can get points by getting the ball to the offense. bortles is impressive, and san diego looks iffy. good one week, bad another. you never know what you'll get. i dont think i'll be picking that game, but i'd take the points with the jags. look at oakland at foxborough last week.

speaking of which, the raiders are getting 4.5 against the dolphins on a neutral site (London). the dolphins are in complete disarray and almost made a qb change (coach philbin had been discussing it, but just recently announced he'll give the struggling tannehill another shot). they just got blown out at home by a mediocre kansas city team one week after getting crushed by buffalo at home.

oakland hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, but its hard to justify Miami giving up 4.5 points... especially since it's not a home game. i will be taking oakland this week. its my first time picking them this year, so its not just fanhood bias speaking here.

i also like atlanta to cover the 3.5 in minnesota. the vikings beat up on the lowly rams in week 1, but have lost and failed to cover their last two against new orleans and new england. the falcons should be able to take this one. bridgewater will be making his first start and the best way to describe him is unremarkable.

just by looking i like washington, detroit, indianapolis as well, but i need to think on those

[Avante]

that line intrigued me as well, though we've seen a new qb spark an entire team. even the defenses play with more heart if they feel they can get points by getting the ball to the offense. bortles is impressive, and san diego looks iffy. good one week, bad another. you never know what you'll get. i dont think i'll be picking that game, but i'd take the points with the jags. look at oakland at foxborough last week.

speaking of which, the raiders are getting 4.5 against the dolphins on a neutral site (London). the dolphins are in complete disarray and almost made a qb change (coach philbin had been discussing it, but just recently announced he'll give the struggling tannehill another shot). they just got blown out at home by a mediocre kansas city team one week after getting crushed by buffalo at home.

oakland hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, but its hard to justify Miami giving up 4.5 points... especially since it's not a home game. i will be taking oakland this week. its my first time picking them this year, so its not just fanhood bias speaking here.

i also like atlanta to cover the 3.5 in minnesota. the vikings beat up on the lowly rams in week 1, but have lost and failed to cover their last two against new orleans and new england. the falcons should be able to take this one. bridgewater will be making his first start and the best way to describe him is unremarkable.

just by looking i like washington, detroit, indianapolis as well, but i need to think on those


I love Atlanta vs a rookie QB.

Will pass on the Charger game, just too many points regardless of any situation favoring the Chargers.

There is no logical reason to play that Raider game....none! Backing a team that hasn't covered back to back road games since 2011..??? They've also lost to Miami...

13-35
14-34
17-33
15-17
21-33

The last five times they've met. So what if the Dolphins suck right now, so do the Raiders. Keep in mind on the road under Dennis Allen the Raiders are.....2-16SU.



Why Detroit? I do see the other two.

[spurraider21]

I love Atlanta vs a rookie QB.

Will pass on the Charger game, just too many points regardless of any situation favoring the Chargers.

There is no logical reason to play that Raider game....none! Backing a team that hasn't covered back to back road games since 2011..??? They've also lost to Miami...

13-35
14-34
17-33
15-17
21-33

The last five times they've met. So what if the Dolphins suck right now, so do the Raiders.



Why Detroit? I do see the other two.
i'm not interested in raiders performances against miami from 2011 and earlier... they just don't matter. also of those 5 games you brought up, 4 were in miami. in a game with 2 lousy teams playing, i'll take the one getting more than a field goal. the raiders have covered their 2 road games this season, both in the east cost, fyi

i like detroit in a pickem game because their defensive line should be able to control the game. the jets aren't very good and their secondary can be thrown at

[Avante]

i'm not interested in raiders performances against miami from 2011 and earlier... they just don't matter. also of those 5 games you brought up, 4 were in miami. in a game with 2 lousy teams playing, i'll take the one getting more than a field goal. the raiders have covered their 2 road games this season, both in the east cost, fyi

i like detroit in a pickem game because their defensive line should be able to control the game. the jets aren't very good and their secondary can be thrown at

This....don't wanna know too much....of yours, hmmmmm? I want it all.

Sure the Raiders won ATS in the ETZ but were getting 5.5 and what 14? And got real real lucky vs the Jets as you know.

The Lions are 1-11ATS the last 12 times in this "spot". That being ...away after SU win. The Jets at home "again" ATS 8-1 since 2007.

I can't ignore a 19-2 trend favoring the Jets in this '"spot" and I will not back Geno Smith ever again. So...no play...for me.

If ya saw the Bears game you know that the Jets could have won that game despite Geno Smith.

The Lions their last 9 road games....3-6 the Jets last 9 home game...7-2.

[spurraider21]

The Lions are 1-11ATS the last 12 times in this "spot". That being ...away after SU win. The Jets at home "again" ATS 8-1 since 2007.

I can't ignore a 19-2 trend favoring the Jets in this '"pot" and I will not back Geno Smith ever again. So...no play...for me.
the problem with stuff like this is how arbitrary it is. you are looking at their ATS record after SU wins? its so all over the place.

anybody can dissect old schedules and come up with the weirdest trends... ATS record in week after road games decided by 10 points or less, or ATS record the week before a division game, etc. at some point it boils down to just silly stats people come up with

[chunticakes]

$100 Avante doesn't get to .500 this week. Takers?

[Avante]

the problem with stuff like this is how arbitrary it is. you are looking at their ATS record after SU wins? its so all over the place.

anybody can dissect old schedules and come up with the weirdest trends... ATS record in week after road games decided by 10 points or less, or ATS record the week before a division game, etc. at some point it boils down to just silly stats people come up with

Why did I play 330 on the Falcons then sat back and watched it go down just exactly like I knew it would?

It was a Thursday night "spot" in that "spot" there is no team in the league better than this...

7-1ATS
5-0 vs the Division
5-1 at home

For Atlanta, while the Buc's....0-2 after two straight up losses.

Easy win! Everything screamed....ATLANTA!

I coud go on and on and on, giving tons of examples of plays that strong.

You simply have never spent anytime actually reading up on this stuff so are ignorant to it.

[spurraider21]

why did you play any of your plays for the past two years?

[Avante]

$100 Avante doesn't get to .500 this week. Takers?

Take away a two point try and a blown 27-3 lead and I;d be 9-6.

You're going to foolish, trust me.

[spurraider21]

Take away a two point try and a blown 27-3 lead and I;d be 9-6.

You're going to foolish, trust me.
you're also 2 plays away from being 5-10

[Avante]

why did you play any of your plays for the past two years?

We have a lot of dumb kids here as you've noticed. I;m sure you've picked up on.....if I hit....crickets! If I'm right about anything like Russell Wilson, Terrance West, Dri Archer....crickets/or bullshit.

Hell look at you. When I was down 350 it was big old letters and 0-3 0-3 0-3. Then when I erased all that in one week......crickets.

I gain nothing here by wining as you see, the fun is watching the punk kids....YOU LOST YOU LOST...hahahaha!!!!!!!!! My son and I had a lot of fun with it.

Hell, it's so bad I can't even pick SU anymore, these dummies can't figure out the difference or what a ..5..means, To these dummies it's...YOU LOST YOU LOST!!!!!!...hahaha!!!!!!!!


I got a little unlucky in week one, since then I've won my $$$ back and have gone 7-5 while not great it will get easier.

Look at you, I tell you.....the Raiders don't win in the ETZ, and you must battle with me............why? Why not learn a few things, instead the constant battle?

[spurraider21]

there's nothing wrong with being a mediocre gambler

[Avante]

there's nothing wrong with being a mediocre gambler

Dude, when I tell you this....

Niners/Indy/Cincy/Denver/Sea....have gone 110-64ATS the two last seasons I'm lying?

Hell as of right now...plus 300.

If I'm playing that system .......now think.

[spurraider21]

either play the system or don't. you keep talking about it, but its not like that's all you've been using :lol

its just a lot of shoulda woulda coulda talk

[Avante]

either play the system or don't. you keep talking about it, but its not like that's all you've been using :lol

its just a lot of shoulda woulda coulda talk

You didn't answer my question? Do you believe those five teams have averaged 55-32 the last two years? Well?

[Avante]

you're also 2 plays away from being 5-10

Why do you fight this so damn hard? It isn't real obvious I know what I'm doing? I have everything anyone could possibly want right at my fingertips, everything. Don't you think over a 20 some week season al that info/knowledge will prevail over non extra point trys/blown 27-3 leads?

Dude, I can sit here right now and run down every single 1000 yard rusher in the history of the NFL by college and pro team right off the top of my head and I can't pick the right side of a football game, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blake]

It doesn't work that way. Kids play that silliness.

I only play "spots" and it's for real $$$$.

I might not find 8 "spots' especially with so many of the good ATS teams on a bye week.

Dude, why this "need' to battle with me over this? Been at it a long time and usually hit around 60-65%. This will be no different. That hardest month is Sept. After that it does get a lot easier.

There a few punk kids here we jerked around for awhile, time to get real in 2014.

2012: "was just kidding, now it's time to get real"
2013: "was just kidding, now it's time to get real"
2014: "was just kidding, now it's time to get real"
2015: etc
2025: (if still alive): "was just kidding etc"

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Let's talk reality.

Avante in 2012: Documented under .500 for the entire season
Avante in 2013: Documented under .500 for the entire season
Avante in 2014: Documented under .500 through the first 3 weeks of the season.

The stats/trends clearly indicate that Avante is an under .500 better in this "spot".

[Aztecfan03]

Yep. I wouldn't bet the Cherger game either. A large spread, Chargers played down to opponents too often last year, unknown QB, and Ingram,Te'o,woodhead,mathews,hardwick all out and players like Attaochu, Addae, Allen, Verret have been dealing with injuries

[spurraider21]

Avante if you like superstitious trends or spots or w/e, you also might want to consider that the Raiders flew out to London sunday evening after the Patriots game, and they've been practicing and getting acclimated to the local time.

The Dolphins aren't going to fly out until Friday. it is a 5 hour time difference from the east coast to england... so the time difference is nearly twice that of west coast teams traveling east

the game is taking place 1pm EST, but to the Dolphins it will feel like they are playing at 8am

[Aztecfan03]

Avante if you like superstitious trends or spots or w/e, you also might want to consider that the Raiders flew out to London sunday evening after the Patriots game, and they've been practicing and getting acclimated to the local time.

The Dolphins aren't going to fly out until Friday. it is a 5 hour time difference from the east coast to england... so the time difference is nearly twice that of west coast teams traveling east

the game is taking place 1pm EST, but to the Dolphins it will feel like they are playing at 8am

SHouldn't it still feel like 1 pm their time?

What you said is like saying West coast teams feel like they are playingat 7 am when they play at 1 pm EST on the east coast.

[spurraider21]

SHouldn't it still feel like 1 pm their time?

What you said is like saying West coast teams feel like they are playingat 7 am when they play at 1 pm EST on the east coast.
oh wait, yeah i think i messed up there :lol

what i said would make sense if they were playing 1PM in london time

[Aztecfan03]

oh wait, yeah i think i messed up there :lol

what i said would make sense if they were playing 1PM in london time

yep. haha/

[Avante]

Avante if you like superstitious trends or spots or w/e, you also might want to consider that the Raiders flew out to London sunday evening after the Patriots game, and they've been practicing and getting acclimated to the local time.

The Dolphins aren't going to fly out until Friday. it is a 5 hour time difference from the east coast to england... so the time difference is nearly twice that of west coast teams traveling east

the game is taking place 1pm EST, but to the Dolphins it will feel like they are playing at 8am

Where do you get 'superstitious" at? I told you that the Raiders do not win games in the ETZ regardless of coach/players historically speaking. They are proving that true this season.

Playing in London is a unique/strange 'spot" for any NFL team. So ya leave it totally alone from a ATS perspective. We have no idea how this trip will work for anyone. We have nothing to look at.

[Avante]

Let's break down tonights game....

The Redskins have never lost a Thursday night game at home.

But...the Giants are 3-1 on Thursday night games. I'm talking SU here.

Kirk Cousins on a short week in front of a national audience. Obviously Eli has been in this sort of "spot' numerous times.

It appears the Redskins are all beat up, 17 players nursing some ailment.

Home teams have won all three Thursday night games this season and it is an historially strong 'spot" to play the home team.

But.......with all those Redskins hurting and Cousins in a unique "spot" for him, how can you back the Skins? So do you buck that Thursday night trend?

Too many...???....to play this game.

[spurraider21]

I'm taking the Skins

[Avante]

I'm taking the Skins

Talk me into that play.

[spurraider21]

Talk me into that play.
no.

[Avante]

no.

Well ya do have that strong ....home teams on Thursday night..."spot" working for you.

The Reskins at home the last two years...3-6

Giants about the same on the road. But have beaten Washingon 3 of the last 4 losing that one by one.

[spurraider21]

i dont care about historic trends. right now the redskins are a better team and are at home.

[Avante]

i dont care about historic trends. right now the redskins are a better team and are at home.

How do you figure the Skins are a better team right now?

They are 1-2 and beat the lowly Jags at home. They lost to Houston a team the Giants kicked ass on.

The Giants lost to Detroit/Arizona.

There is nothing "right now" that has the Skins as the better team...nothing!

We have two conflicting trends here.....that Thursday night home team ...thing, and the fact the Giants have owned the Skins lately.

There is nothing at all that tells us the Skins are the better team right now.

Last meeting...Giants 20 Skins 6 and that was the last game of 2013. Since then both are 1-2.

[spurraider21]

it doesn't work that way... houston beat redskins, giants beat houston, therefore giants > redskins. nope that's not how it works at all.

Kirk Cousins is a much better option that Cousins, who was playing in the week 1 loss. the skins are ranked high in both offense and defense. at this stage the records aren't always indicative of how good teams are. having watched the games, its clear to me that the skins are the better team

[Avante]

it doesn't work that way... houston beat redskins, giants beat houston, therefore giants > redskins. nope that's not how it works at all.

Kirk Cousins is a much better option that Cousins, who was playing in the week 1 loss. the skins are ranked high in both offense and defense. at this stage the records aren't always indicative of how good teams are. having watched the games, its clear to me that the skins are the better team

I don't put too much into who beat who either but if we are looking for something to make a case this early....hey.

After three games there just isn't enought info to debate two 1-2 teams. Nothing to...see see look at that. So why act like there is?

Eli Manning on the big National stage vs a guy coming off a short week in a "spot" new to him...hmmm? We can't ignore this.

This is a game ya just watch, too many...???? Just like that London game with the Raiders/Dolphins.

Too many...????...in both those "spots". SOOOOOOOOOOO...many far better "spots' this week.

[Avante]

Check out Tyreek Hill with Oklahoma St tonight (DVR). When he enters the NFL he will be the fastest back in the league. Just think of a faster Percy Harvin (Hill also lines up all over the place and was returning kicks)

I think he's going to play.

[Avante]

Looks like Eli Manning isn't washed up after all, hahaha!!!!!!!! Now it;s Kirk Cousins who sucks...right?

So much for over reacting to a couple games.

Cousins in a unique situation for himself, and he didn't know how to handle it. I mentioned that might happen.

I hope some of you are learning a few things about over reacting to early seasons games. It's never as good/bad as it appears.

[Avante]

I do think it's safe to say that....

The Buc;s will suck.

The Niners really miss Bowman/Smith.

Russell Wilson is now among the elite QB's.

The Cardinals can play some serious D.

The Bengals are the class of the AFC.

[spurraider21]

weird how u can make a post like that just after talking about overreacting to 3 games

[Avante]

weird how u can make a post like that just after talking about overreacting to 3 games

Funny how you'd tell me the Redskins were better than the Giants based on ...0.

[spurraider21]

i dont claim to be an expert. i'll take the L without blaming my fake son or voodoo

[Avante]

i dont claim to be an expert. i'll take the L without blaming my fake son or voodoo

So tell me again what you saw that told you the Redskins were the better team? You never once thought that Cousins might struggle in a big game like that coming off a short week? And that Eli had seen it all? Didn't I mention that?

It was a stupid play.

Ya don't buck that Thursday night home team trend and ya don't back a young guy in a unique situation.

You'll learn.

[spurraider21]

aren't u under .500? and haven't you been under .500 for 2 consecutive FULL seasons now? lol

[Avante]

aren't u under .500? and haven't you been under .500 for 2 consecutive FULL seasons now? lol

Didn't I just win all my $$$ back in one week? One more time.....first season playing my actual plays as you are seeing.

I noticed you always ignore what's being said with shit like that. Dude, that was a stupid play because you had nothing on your side. Talk about why you made that dumb play....ok?

I take it back, you did have that Thursday night home team trend working.

[Avante]

If ya saw the Giants beat up on the Redskins ya noticed that big TE out of Grambling Larry Donnell.

There was a time when Grambling had more players in pro footbal than any other school but Notre Dame.

The best Grambling Tigers to play pro football

Paul "Tank" Younger....the first, back in the 40's. A Ram.
Ernie Ladd all 6-8 of him, he became a huge rasslin' star.
Buck Buchanon all 6-8 of him, a HOFer
Willie Davis HOF
Willie Brown HOF
Charlie Joiner HOF
Doug Williams first black QB to win the SB

lesser degree

Sammie White
Essex Johnson
Trumaine Johnson
James Harris
Jake Reed
Frank Lewis
Clifton McNeil
Albert Lewis

[Blake]

Check out Tyreek Hill with Oklahoma St tonight (DVR). When he enters the NFL he will be the fastest back in the league. Just think of a faster Percy Harvin (Hill also lines up all over the place and was returning kicks)

I think he's going to play.

Jakeem Grant outplayed Hill.

Avante jinx cruising at normal levels.

[Blake]

Didn't I just win all my $$$ back in one week? One more time.....first season playing my actual plays as you are seeing.

I noticed you always ignore what's being said with shit like that. Dude, that was a stupid play because you had nothing on your side. Talk about why you made that dumb play....ok?

I take it back, you did have that Thursday night home team trend working.

You've been bragging about "70%" and lower, not how much you've won/lost.

[leemajors]

Avante with the 20/20 hindsight

[chunticakes]

So what are the picks this week Avante?

[Aztecfan03]

So what are the picks this week Avante (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=33483)?

If clipboard Jesus starts for Tenessee, you should definitely play the Colts.

[Avante]

Let's see...

The Jets are terrible, Geno Smith sucks. But......how often do Rex Ryan teams lose back to back home games? The Lions as a RFare weak. Not a good "spot' for them.

Jets plus 1.5

The Ravens at home vs a Panthers team with no running backs. Ravens - 3.5

Packers - 1.5. The Bears have yet to meet a real QB.

The Colts simply on another level than the Titans, lay the 7.5. Have covered 4-1-1 last 6 in this 'spot'.

The Steelers at home vs a really bad Buc;s team, lay the 7.5.

The Falcons - 3.5 vs a rookie QB.

[Chinook]

Damn it.

[Avante]

Damn it.

Are you paying any attention at all?

[Chinook]

Are you paying any attention at all?

Last time you picked my team, they lost to a team they had beaten for five straight years.

[Avante]

Last time you picked my team, they lost to a team they had beaten for five straight years.

Can you make a case for the Panthers hanging within the number?

Don't ignore the Steve Smith factor,

[Avante]

Top rated passer heading into week 4...

Russell Wilson

[Chinook]

Can you make a case for the Panthers hanging within the number?

Don't ignore the Steve Smith factor,

Ravens missing their LT, and several d-line players. They have only one reliable player in their WR corps and secondary.

[Avante]

Ravens missing their LT, and several d-line players. They have only one reliable player in their WR corps and secondary.

All the Panther running backs are hurt. I can see Newton in third and long all day long, as ya know that's Ravens football.

[Blake]

Let's see...

The Jets are terrible, Geno Smith sucks. But......how often do Rex Ryan teams lose back to back home games? The Lions as a RFare weak. Not a good "spot' for them.

Jets plus 1.5

The Ravens at home vs a Panthers team with no running backs. Ravens - 3.5

Packers - 1.5. The Bears have yet to meet a real QB.

The Colts simply on another level than the Titans, lay the 7.5. Have covered 4-1-1 last 6 in this 'spot'.

The Steelers at home vs a really bad Buc;s team, lay the 7.5.

The Falcons - 3.5 vs a rookie QB.

3-3 by my count.

Just another monkey slinging shit at target Sunday for the fat ol fuck

[Infinite_limit]

LOL @ Eagles. We beat you with a sneakerhead mental midget at Quarterback!

[Clipper Nation]

3-3 by my count.

Just another monkey slinging shit at target Sunday for the fat ol fuck

:lol Old Faggot
:lol "Betting expert"
:lol "It only gets easier from here"

[Malik Hairston]

To be fair to Avante, this was one of the worst weeks for NFL betting in recent history, tbh..

[Blake]

To be fair to Avante, this was one of the worst weeks for NFL betting in recent history, tbh..

It must have been two of the worst years in recent history

[Malik Hairston]

It must have been two of the worst years in recent history

:lol..

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Let's see...

The Jets are terrible, Geno Smith sucks. But......how often do Rex Ryan teams lose back to back home games? The Lions as a RFare weak. Not a good "spot' for them.

Jets plus 1.5

The Ravens at home vs a Panthers team with no running backs. Ravens - 3.5

Packers - 1.5. The Bears have yet to meet a real QB.

The Colts simply on another level than the Titans, lay the 7.5. Have covered 4-1-1 last 6 in this 'spot'.

The Steelers at home vs a really bad Buc;s team, lay the 7.5.

The Falcons - 3.5 vs a rookie QB.

:lmao 3-3
:lmao STILL under .500 on the season, as usual
:lmao Betting Expert
:lmao NFL Historian
:lmao "It's only week 4, SHEEEESH"
:lmao "It gets easier as the season goes on"
:lmao "You can always tell the rookies"
:lmao One good fluke week last week, and now you're back to normal
:lmao "This is going to be fun, HAHAHAHAHA"
:lmao This "spot"

[Blake]

this is gonna be fun hahahaaaaaaaaaaHAHAHAAAAAAAAaaaa

:cry Mason did it

[chunticakes]

ZOOOOOOOOOOOOMM

[Brazil]

:lol..

:lol due for a hot streak

[Chinook]

Right about that Ravens one, Avante. :toast I guess I'll have to have a music-sharing session with you whenever you pick Baltimore to ward off the bad karma. :lol

[Avante]

The hardest 4 weeks of the season are over. Came out of it about even.

My system is plus 5.

Now it does get easier and only a fool wouldn't know this.

[Avante]

Right about that Ravens one, Avante. :toast I guess I'll have to have a music-sharing session with you whenever you pick Baltimore to ward off the bad karma. :lol

It was an easy play. You have to be able to run the ball vs the Ravens. You put that offense in constant third and long and it;'s over. Plus the Ravens are one of the better home teams.

[Avante]

Hmmmmmmm?

The AFC East is a mess.

Who have the Cowboys beat? The Saints a terrible road team.

I said this when he was drafted, Geno Smith won't make it.

The Raiders, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!

I miss Alex Smith.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Now it does get easier

:lmao

https://img1.etsystatic.com/032/0/9581404/il_340x270.644692855_7y82.jpg

[Avante]

:lmao

You can always tell the dumb kids. Take away week one....10-8. And that's in the hardest 4 weeks of any season.



https://img1.etsystatic.com/032/0/9581404/il_340x270.644692855_7y82.jpg

[Avante]

Going to love this, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!

[Avante]

So what have we learned after 4 weeks?

Russell Wilson/Andrew Luck belong in that elite QB talk.

Don't piss Aaron Rodgers off.

Eli Manning is not done.

The Pats have a shit offensive line.

The Niners goofed dumping Alex Smith.

Geno Smith/E.J.Manuel are backup QB's.

The Cowboys can run the ball.

[Clipper Nation]

The hardest 4 weeks of the season are over.
Next week: "The hardest 5 weeks of the season are over. It only gets easier from here."
Week 17: "The hardest 16 weeks of the season are over. It only gets easier from here."
Next year: "The hardest 3 years are over. It only gets easier from here."

[Clipper Nation]

:lol "Take away week one" even though it counts like every other week
:lol Thinking 10-8 is a record that a "betting expert" should be proud of

[Avante]

Next week: "The hardest 5 weeks of the season are over. It only gets easier from here."
Week 17: "The hardest 16 weeks of the season are over. It only gets easier from here."
Next year: "The hardest 3 years are over. It only gets easier from here."

That right there says it all about just how stupid you really are. Not a clue of any kind....none!

You really haven't noticed the difference? Well you will. Hell yes the first month is the hardest...ya reckon? You are so fucking dumb you don't even get that..wow~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is going to be fun, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The stupidity CN shows should be illegal, totally on a whole other level of....STOO-PEED!

The dummy can't figure shit out, wow!

[Clipper Nation]

That right there says it all about just how stupid you really are. Not a clue of any kind....none!

You really haven't noticed the difference? Well you will. Hell yes the first month is the hardest...ya reckon? You are so fucking dumb you don't even get that..wow~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is going to be fun, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The stupidity CN shows should be illegal, totally on a whole other level of....STOO-PEED!

The dummy can't figure shit out, wow!
You have used the "first month is the hardest" excuse for three years now :lol

[Avante]

You have used the "first month is the hardest" excuse for three years now :lol

Haven't had but one losing week picks wise. And only a dummy like you thinks it doesn't get easier as the season progresses. Everyone who does this knows that it does.

Where was I last season after 4 weeks?

I'm going to love this, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blake]

I'm going to love this, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lmao :lol :lmao :lol :lmao :lol

[Clipper Nation]

Still under .500 for the year :lol

[Avante]

Still under .500 for the year :lol


Very very barely and that's in the hardest month. Now think stupid!

Have only had one losing week, let me guess...zooommmm~~~~~~~~~~~

My system is plus 5 and it gets stronger as the season progresses. If not for byes and those teams playing each other...hmmm?

[Avante]

If I saw a guy hitting...

2-2
5-3
3-3

in September

...I'm getting it. I know it's going to be 4-2, 3-1, 3-3, 5-3 just around the corner.

So many dummies here it's comical.

[Blake]

2012:


If I saw a guy hitting...

2-2
5-3
3-3

in September

...I'm getting it. I know it's going to be 4-2, 3-1, 3-3, 5-3 just around the corner.

So many dummies here it's comical.

2013:


If I saw a guy hitting...

2-2
5-3
3-3

in September

...I'm getting it. I know it's going to be 4-2, 3-1, 3-3, 5-3 just around the corner.

So many dummies here it's comical.

2014:


If I saw a guy hitting...

2-2
5-3
3-3

in September

...I'm getting it. I know it's going to be 4-2, 3-1, 3-3, 5-3 just around the corner.

So many dummies here it's comical.

2015:


If I saw a guy hitting...

2-2
5-3
3-3

in September

...I'm getting it. I know it's going to be 4-2, 3-1, 3-3, 5-3 just around the corner.

So many dummies here it's comical.

[Clipper Nation]

Under .500 :lol

[Avante]

Notice how our resident dummy total ignored where we really were after 4 weeks in 2012/2013? Try...buried!

[Avante]

Under .500 :lol

Let's see if I can get that..."one"...back, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blake]

2012

Let's see if I can get that..."one"...back, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2013

Let's see if I can get that..."one"...back, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2014

Let's see if I can get that..."one"...back, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2015

Let's see if I can get that..."one"...back, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Avante]

Notice how he still keeps ignoring reality, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

Already loving this, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So many dumb kids here, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Avante]

Thank God for little shits like Blake/CN, hahahaha!!!!!!!! So fucking stupid, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Blake]

2012

Notice how he still keeps ignoring reality, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

Already loving this, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So many dumb kids here, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2013

Notice how he still keeps ignoring reality, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

Already loving this, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So many dumb kids here, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2014

Notice how he still keeps ignoring reality, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

Already loving this, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So many dumb kids here, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2015

Notice how he still keeps ignoring reality, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

Already loving this, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So many dumb kids here, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Avante]

Hey Blake what was my actual record after week 4 in 2013?

Watch the little shit totally ignore that.

[Blake]

Hey Blake what was my actual record after week 4 in 2013?

Watch the little shit totally ignore that.

Don't know. What was it?

[Avante]

Don't know. What was it?

As closely as you watch me and you don't know.....shocked!

[Avante]

No Jon (Gruden) Jamaal Charles doesn't/never did have "world class" speed....ok? He had good speed at the NCAA level.

[spurraider21]

https://i.imgflip.com/cmafw.jpg

[Avante]

https://i.imgflip.com/cmafw.jpg

There's the guy the Raiders need right there.

[Avante]

Let's talk about white cornerbacks...ok?

[Clipper Nation]

Let's talk about white cornerbacks...ok?
Jason Sehorn > Cum Newton

[Avante]

Jason Sehorn > Cum Newton

We have to go back over 10 years to find...one....whoa~~

What's you're hang up with Newton/Alex Smith? It's weird!

[Avante]

Lets look at the power teams at home so far SU.

Arizona...2-0
Cincy...2-0
Denver...2-0
Indy...1-1
Philly...2-0
SD...2-0
SF....1-1
Sea..2-0

That's...14-2

Weaklings on the road

Clev...0-1
Jax...0-3
Oakland...0-3
Tampa Bay...1-1
Tenn...1-2

Thats...2-10

So what if one of the top teams are playing one of the bottom teams at home...ATS?

[spurraider21]

10-11

[Blake]

As closely as you watch me and you don't know.....shocked!

no, only watching you compile a losing record on the season, fatty.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

2012: Under .500 for the season, and it was all documented

2013: Under .500 for the season, and it was all documented

2014: 10-11 on the season (under .500), and it is all documented.

When are you going to realize the reason that you are a laughing stock around here? You're a shit picker of NFL games ATS, so stop trying to convince everyone that you aren't.

[Avante]

Great "spot" tonight for a big Packer cover.

The Packers are 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 vs Minnesota. The Vikes are a weak 4-10ATS vs their division. The Packers get up for these division games going 15-5 the last three seasons ATS.

Now add the fact other than last week home teams have dominated these Thuesday night game.

Aaron Rodgers at home vs a gimpy rookie QB/Christian Ponder on the road, ya gotta play it.

I like this "spot" alot. Will play 220 to win 200 and lay the 8 points. I have no problems seeing a 30-17 type game.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A basic ATS fundamental

If the line is reasonable, good teams losing on the road now at home. The Saints/Eagles are in that "spot" this week. Not sure what the Pats are right now.

Playing QB 's is also a smart idea. What are the chances of...

Peyton
Rodgers
Brees
Luck
Wilson
Rivers
Big Ben

...all losing ATS on the same week?

[Avante]

So who remembers?

Cowboys suck after week one?

Eli is done!

Hahahaha, like I said....slow down!!!!!!!!!

[Blake]

Fuck you're stupid.

Just a fucking low IQ.

[Avante]

Fuck you're stupid.

Just a fucking low IQ.

Tell me again about my system that is now plus 5 after 4 weeks with three of those teams already having byes and a couple games between themselves. And.....the last two seasons all those teams did better in the second half.


Hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have to pity this weirdo, not a brain in the dummies head and it's sad to watch him.

[Avante]

So which teams are the best over the last two seasons(not counting 2014) ATS vs their division?

Carolina 8-4
Denver 8-3-1
GB 9-3
Indy 10-2*****
Pitt 8-3-1
SD...8-4
Seattle 8-4

[Avante]

The Packers have a rookie receiver named Jeff Janis, the guy is a blurr and....white. Not sure if he's hurt or not.

He is their most explosive receiver but hasn't played I don't think.

[Avante]

Colin Kaepernick/Marcus Mariota..hmmm?

[Avante]

Due to the weather, meaning not sure just how bad it will get, I'm off the Packers vs Vikes game. The huge difference in the game was Aaron Rodgers, if it's wet, well.

No play tonight.

[Malik Hairston]

Due to the weather, meaning not sure just how bad it will get, I'm off the Packers vs Vikes game. The huge difference in the game was Aaron Rodgers, if it's wet, well.

No play tonight.

That's too bad, tbh..

[spurraider21]

Due to the weather, meaning not sure just how bad it will get, I'm off the Packers vs Vikes game. The huge difference in the game was Aaron Rodgers, if it's wet, well.

No play tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A

[benefactor]

http://i.imgflip.com/42yan.jpg

[Clipper Nation]

Due to the weather, meaning not sure just how bad it will get, I'm off the Packers vs Vikes game. The huge difference in the game was Aaron Rodgers, if it's wet, well.

No play tonight.
:lmao Pussy

[Blake]

Due to the weather, meaning not sure just how bad it will get, I'm off the Packers vs Vikes game. The huge difference in the game was Aaron Rodgers, if it's wet, well.

No play tonight.

The huge difference in the game was Christian Ponder. Everyone knew it beforehand.

Lololololool ol expert still at sub 500

":cry it gets easier :cry :cry :cry"

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

Due to the weather, meaning not sure just how bad it will get, I'm off the Packers vs Vikes game. The huge difference in the game was Aaron Rodgers, if it's wet, well.

No play tonight.

:lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao


























































































































:lmao still under .500

[Avante]

What happened to that storm with lightning? I feel robbed.

But.....it went just like I said it would, hence the 220 to win 200.

Anytime there is talk of ligtning, ya don't play with real $$$$.

Ok....

Denver - 7, they are 10-3 in this 'spot" coming off a bye week.

SD - 6.5, they lead the league in turnovers and Geno Smith turns it over.

NYG -4, the Falcons are like the Saints, they suck on the road.

Bears + 2.5, the Panthers have no backs, so third and long all day long.

Eagles - 7, a time tested trend....good teams coming off a loss now at home.

Saints -10, a must win for the Saints who are a different team at home vs a Buc;s team in a second consecutive road game.

[Avante]

The huge difference in the game was Christian Ponder. Everyone knew it beforehand.

Lololololool ol expert still at sub 500

":cry it gets easier :cry :cry :cry"

translation

You totally nailed it shut, yep, a perfect "spot" for a big Packers cover as you mentioned.

I do agree when there is talk if lightning, ya have to pass if dealing with real $$$$.

[Aztecfan03]

Eagles - 7, a time tested trend....good teams coming off a loss now at home.

Just a question, but do you consider the Patriots a good team or just too unpredictable now?

I think the Bengals will cover the -1 but the Patriots are at home and were humiliated last week and it's hard to count Brady out even if he has looked terrible.

[Avante]

Just a question, but do you consider the Patriots a good team or just too unpredictable now?

I think the Bengals will cover the -1 but the Patriots are at home and were humiliated last week and it's hard to count Brady out even if he has looked terrible.

Cincy coming off a bye week 8-16 SU and 12=13 ATS. As a RF in 2013...1-4. Keep in mind while they are a good team they were only 3-5 on the road SU in 2013. Bottom line is they aren't the same as roadwarriors.

NE coming off a road loss and then back at home 5-0 ATS in that "spot' since 2012.

So we can see everything points towards the Pats in this "spot".

BUT...this looks like the best Bengals team we've seen in awhile and the worst Pats team. We can't ignore this.

I see the Pats in that "must" win*** vs a team that hasn't done all that coming off a bye week.

Yep, too many...?????? So why play it?

I gotta have something that strongly points to one side, I don't see that in this game.

*** talking about for their mind set/self respect. They can win their weakass division regardless of this game.

[Avante]

Cowboy running backs.

Their first stud back was a fullback (back then they were the main ball carriers) Don Perkins out of New Mexico, he was a slasher with good speed.

Calvin Hill an ivy leaguer from Yale (25 foot long jumper) was their first 1000 yard rusher. He was huge at 6-4, cat liked to try and jump over tacklers, yep....why?

Herschel Walker had "a" great season, then there was Tony Dorsett who is still their best back in my opinion. Smoothest runner ever and fast.

Emmitt Smith....hmmm?....how many times did we see him 4 yards down the field before seeing a defender? But, he did have enought good runs to put him in with the greats.

Now it's obviously DeMarco Murry who reminds me a lot of Chris Warren, a glider.

We see Duane Thomas (a blocking back for Mercury Morris at West Texas State) in the video, he did have some good runs but only one decent year.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPIcCbyf4ao

[Avante]

Reggie Bush

His Helix HS video is something else. Talk about looking like a video game, there it is.

Bush was a 10.4 sprinter but didn't run track while at USC. The thing about Bush is that he has always played the wrong position. This guy is a slot receiver not a running back. What a shame he wanted to play RB. With his speed/elusiveness and pass catching ability he was the next Rocket Ismail/Johnny Rodgers.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJOlzDJiaDw

[Malik Hairston]

What happened to that storm with lightning? I feel robbed.

But.....it went just like I said it would, hence the 220 to win 200.

Anytime there is talk of ligtning, ya don't play with real $$$$.

Ok....

Denver - 7, they are 10-3 in this 'spot" coming off a bye week.

SD - 6.5, they lead the league in turnovers and Geno Smith turns it over.

NYG -4, the Falcons are like the Saints, they suck on the road.

Bears + 2.5, the Panthers have no backs, so third and long all day long.

Eagles - 7, a time tested trend....good teams coming off a loss now at home.

Saints -10, a must win for the Saints who are a different team at home vs a Buc;s team in a second consecutive road game.

3-3, :-S..

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

What happened to that storm with lightning? I feel robbed.

But.....it went just like I said it would, hence the 220 to win 200.

Anytime there is talk of ligtning, ya don't play with real $$$$.

Ok....

Denver - 7, they are 10-3 in this 'spot" coming off a bye week.

SD - 6.5, they lead the league in turnovers and Geno Smith turns it over.

NYG -4, the Falcons are like the Saints, they suck on the road.

Bears + 2.5, the Panthers have no backs, so third and long all day long.

Eagles - 7, a time tested trend....good teams coming off a loss now at home.

Saints -10, a must win for the Saints who are a different team at home vs a Buc;s team in a second consecutive road game.

:lmao 3-3 on the week
:lmao can't beat a monkey flipping a coin
:lmao under .500 in 2012
:lmao under .500 in 2013
:lmao under .500 so far this season
:lmao betting expert
:lmao NFL Historian
:lmao "It gets easier as the season goes on
:lmao "Watch this, HAHAHAHAHA"
:lmao consistent loser

[spurraider21]

:lmao 3-3 on the week
:lmao can't beat a monkey flipping a coin
:lmao under .500 in 2012
:lmao under .500 in 2013
:lmao under .500 so far this season
:lmao betting expert
:lmao NFL Historian
:lmao "It gets easier as the season goes on
:lmao "Watch this, HAHAHAHAHA"
:lmao consistent loser
why does it matter who flips a coin. its 50/50 regardless

[Avante]

So who thinks....

Denver
Seattle
Cincy
Indy
Chargers

...will lose more ATS plays than win the rest of the season? Who thinks the Jets, Raiders and Jags will win more ATS than they lose?

[spurraider21]

either make the picks or don't. talking about a system isn't impressive when you don't adhere to it on a weekly basis

[Clipper Nation]

either make the picks or don't. talking about a system isn't impressive when you don't adhere to it on a weekly basis

The "system" doesn't exist, he just brings it up after another week of shitty betting in order to cover his ass and pretend like he's not STILL under .500....

[Avante]

The "system" doesn't exist, he just brings it up after another week of shitty betting in order to cover his ass and pretend like he's not STILL under .500....

Dude just back Denver, Chargers, Indy, Seattle and go against Raiders Jets and Jags...BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not a brain in your head.

[Clipper Nation]

Dude just back Denver, Chargers, Indy, Seattle and go against Raiders Jets and Jags...BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not a brain in your head.

You are 13-14 on the season, yet you continue to thump your chest about your supposedly foolproof system :lol

[Avante]

Next week...ATS

Cinncy at home coming off a loss.
Denver over the Jets
Packers over Miami
Chargers over Raiders

Hmmmm?

[Avante]

You are 13-14 on the season, yet you continue to thump your chest about your supposedly foolproof system :lol

Why do you conitnue to act like a total moron? I have had...one...losing week and it gets easier as the season progresses.

The problem with the sysyem is that being SB champs now the Seahawks are being over prized. Now add the missing Niners.


I think I'll add the Chargers and dump the Niners.

Now tell me do you see the Broncos, Colts, Bengals, Chargers losing more ATS plays than they win the rest of the season? Do you see the woeful Jets, Raiders and Jags winning more ATS plays than they lose?

2 points from going 4-2 today.

[Avante]

Check it out heading into this week.

Look at those system teams....Niners, Broncos, Colts, Seahawks and Bengals ATS.

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/against-the-spread?iadid=Nav_Sport_LINEMAKERS_ATS_STANDINGS

Time to add the Chargers and dump the Niners.

Denver covered today and will be alright.

All those times better in the second half ATS.

[Clipper Nation]

I have had...one...losing week and it gets easier as the season progresses.

You have literally made this exact same excuse three weeks in a row and you're STILL under .500 on the season :lol

[Avante]

You have literally made this exact same excuse three weeks in a row and you're STILL under .500 on the season :lol

Let's see how the....

Chargers
Seahawks
Broncos
Colts
Bengals

do ATS the rest of the season ..ok?

Last season after week 5 they had twice as many ATS wins as losses.

Right now that gang is 14-6 on the season.

[Avante]

Let's talk about...."spots"....ok?

As we all know USC will beat Sacramento State 100 out of 100 games, nothing will matter. There is nothing that can even these two teams out, that isn't the case in pro football. All it takes is a big special teams play and a couple turnovers.

So we need to look for .."spots'...where one team has all the advantages when playing the ATS side of things.

Lets look at my plays today as an example.

The Eagles coming off a loss on the road now at home, a great "spot" for any team as we saw with the Pats. The Eagles got up too big too early and failed to cover by ...2...points.

The Broncos are great coming out of a bye week they proved that today.

The Jets totally suck, the Chargers at home laying less than a TD, a great "spot" for them and it was easy.

The Bears getting points vs a Panthers team with no running backs, it looked like a great "spot". So the Panthers run back a funky punk. Simply bad luck.

The Saints are not the ....home team...they were, we saw that today. What look like a great "spot'...nope!

Next week we have this "spot".

The Bengals at home (after a loss), a place where they haven't lost since 2013 vs a Panthers team that needed a weird punt return to beat the Bears at home. A perfect "spot" for a Bengals cover.

Alwys look at that weeks "spot" or situation. The Pats a great example of that, they went from one extreme to the other in a week, why.....yep.....a totally different "spot".

[Aztecfan03]

The problem with the sysyem is that being SB champs now the Seahawks are being over prized.


I have been saying that all along.

[Avante]

I have been saying that all along.

In the Russell Wilson era if you had played every Seahawk game, you'd be...27-13

In the Andrew Luck era the Colts....25-16


Who is the fool that thinks....

Seahawks
Colts
Chargers
Bengals
Broncos

...will lose more ATS plays the rest of the season than they win?

They went 3-1 today.

[Avante]

OK...

MNF....Seahawks vs Redskins

Today we saw the Bengals coming off a bye on the road in a big Nationally televised game, how'd they look?

Well there is no team in the league as bad coming off a bye as the Seahawks. They are 8-19 SU and as a RFATS 3-4. Now on MNF as a RFATS.....1-2.

The Redskins as HD on MNF....4=6.

The Redskins at home again this week, will they lose two in a row?

Obviously the Seahawks are the better team, but this isn't the best "spot" for them as far as ATS goes. Home teams are 7-3 in these MNF/TNF games.

And ya can't really make a case for the Redskins. So ya.....pass the game.

[Blake]

2012

Why do you conitnue to act like a total moron? I have had...one...losing week and it gets easier as the season progresses.

2013


Why do you conitnue to act like a total moron? I have had...one...losing week and it gets easier as the season progresses.

2014


Why do you conitnue to act like a total moron? I have had...one...losing week and it gets easier as the season progresses.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

http://img.pandawhale.com/post-26056-Antonio-Banderas-reaction-gif-RNWc.gif

[Avante]

I love the attention and it's funny how so many are so concerned over my picks, hahaha!!!!!!!!!!! I've lost 4 games by a combined total of 7 points. I've lost two games when having a 20 point lead. I pulled out of a win because of a bogus weather report. I could easliy be 18-9.

Slow down people, we have months of games to go and 'm going to win 65% of these games, I always do.

[Avante]

The pro game is funny, a team looks like shit in a game or a couple games and they suck, hahaha!!!!! A team looks good a couple weeks they are SB contenders, hahaha!!!!!!!!!

Does anyone out there pay any attention at all to scheduling? The Pats started out playing three of their first four games on the road. You don't ignore that. What if they had started out playing three homes games in the first four weeks?

Look at the situation/"spot' these teams are in, yes it does matter. Look at good teams losing a road game then the following week back at home. Watch Cincy next week at home coming off a loss.

Pay attention to things like double road/double home, heading into a bye/coming off a bye, coming off a Thursday game. All that stuff matters.

And.....don't act like a retarded monkey over the first six or so weeks of a new season. Give things a little time. Last season the Lions were 3-1 so what they end up...6-10, we see tons of that sort of thing. So slow down, give things some time.

[Kyle Orton]

I love the attention and it's funny how so many are so concerned over my picks, hahaha!!!!!!!!!!! I've lost 4 games by a combined total of 7 points. I've lost two games when having a 20 point lead. I pulled out of a win because of a bogus weather report. I could easliy be 18-9.

Slow down people, we have months of games to go and 'm going to win 65% of these games, I always do.
except the last two years where you hovered around 50 percent

[Avante]

except the last two years where you hovered around 50 percent

Why not actualy pay attention if you're all that concerned? Just this week.....lose one game by 1 point, pull off a game because of a bogus weather report, blow a 20 point lead in another. And....a punt return costs me another. And that's how it's been so far. That can't last.

Hell. in my only losing week we saw the Jets go for two and the Steelers blow a 20 point lead. Could easily have been 2-1.
I'm getting no breaks at all and still 13-14.


This is the first year I decided to post my legit $$$$ plays, lets see how it goes.

[KoolAid Mans Brother]

This is the first year I decided to post my legit $$$$ plays, lets see how it goes.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying)

lying

noun
1. the telling of lies (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lie), or false statements; untruthfulness: From boyhood, he has never been good at lying.
Synonyms: falsehood (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/falsehood), falsity (http://click.reference.com/click/r8ijey?clkitem=falsity&clkpage=dic&clksite=dict&clkld=300:2&clkdest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesaurus.com%2Fbrowse%2F falsity), mendacity (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/mendacity), prevarication (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/prevarication).
Antonyms: truth (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/truth), veracity (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/veracity).


adjective
2. telling or containing lies (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lie); deliberately untruthful; deceitful; false: a lying report.
Synonyms: deceptive (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/deceptive), misleading (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/misleading), mendacious (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/mendacious), fallacious (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/fallacious); sham (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/sham), counterfeit (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/counterfeit).
Antonyms: true (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/true), candid (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/candid), actual (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/actual), correct (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/correct), accurate (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/accurate), trustworthy (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/trustworthy)

[Avante]

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying)

lying

noun
1. the telling of lies (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lie), or false statements; untruthfulness: From boyhood, he has never been good at lying.
Synonyms: falsehood (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/falsehood), falsity (http://click.reference.com/click/r8ijey?clkitem=falsity&clkpage=dic&clksite=dict&clkld=300:2&clkdest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesaurus.com%2Fbrowse%2F falsity), mendacity (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/mendacity), prevarication (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/prevarication).
Antonyms: truth (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/truth), veracity (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/veracity).


adjective
2. telling or containing lies (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lie); deliberately untruthful; deceitful; false: a lying report.
Synonyms: deceptive (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/deceptive), misleading (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/misleading), mendacious (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/mendacious), fallacious (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/fallacious); sham (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/sham), counterfeit (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/counterfeit).
Antonyms: true (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/true), candid (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/candid), actual (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/actual), correct (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/correct), accurate (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/accurate), trustworthy (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/trustworthy)


I'm already way ahead of where I was the last two seasons, you really haven't noticed that?

One losing week. And if the Jets kick the extra point and the Steelers don't blow a 27-3 lead...2-1 there. Hell, 2 points from going 4-2 this week.

[Avante]

As of right now, each teams best win.

Arizona....Chargers/Niners
Atlanta....Saints
Baltimore...Steelers
Buffalo...Lions
Carolina....Lions
Chicago...Niners
Cincy....Ravens
Cleveland...Saints
Dallas....Texans
Denver....Colts
Detroit...Packers
Green Bay....Bears
Houston....Billls
Indy...Ravens
Jax....hahaha!!!!!
Kansas City...Pats
Miami....Pats
Minnesota...Falcons
New England....Bengals
New Orleans....Vikings
Giants...Texans
Jets...Raiders
Oakland...hahahaha!!!!!!
Philly....Colts
Pittsburgh....Panthers
St. Louis...Buc;s
San Diego,...Seahawks
San Francisco...Cowboys/Eagles
Seattle....Broncos
Tampa Bay...Steelers
Tennessee...Chiefs
Washington...Jags

[Avante]

After five weeks

Most points scored....Eagles/Colts 156
Least amount of points scored.....Raiders 51
Least points given up....Chargers 63
Most points given up....Jags 163

The Colts have scored 156 and givenn up 108, so they are a plus 48
The Titans have scored 88 and given up 139, so they are minus 51

The game is in Indy, there the Colts are 2-1 while the Titans are 1-2 on the road.

This should be an easy ATS play.

[Aztecfan03]

After five weeks

Most points scored....Eagles/Colts 156
Least amount of points scored.....Raiders 51
Least points given up....Chargers 63
Most points given up....Jags 163

The Colts have scored 156 and givenn up 108, so they are a plus 48
The Titans have scored 88 and given up 139, so they are minus 51

The game is in Indy, there the Colts are 2-1 while the Titans are 1-2 on the road.

This should be an easy ATS play.

That's cool. Too bad this game happened over a week ago.

[Avante]

That's cool. Too bad this game happened over a week ago.

Well no shit, dude...come on. That was an example of a good way to get a read on things...ok?

Amazing.

[chunticakes]

Well no shit, dude...come on. That was an example of a good way to get a read on things...ok?

Amazing.

You do know Indy plays Houston this Thursday right old man? :lol

Alzheimer's is a bitch, pretty soon you'll forget how to breathe and die :lol

[Blake]

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lying)

lying

noun
1. the telling of lies (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lie), or false statements; untruthfulness: From boyhood, he has never been good at lying.
Synonyms: falsehood (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/falsehood), falsity (http://click.reference.com/click/r8ijey?clkitem=falsity&clkpage=dic&clksite=dict&clkld=300:2&clkdest=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesaurus.com%2Fbrowse%2F falsity), mendacity (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/mendacity), prevarication (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/prevarication).
Antonyms: truth (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/truth), veracity (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/veracity).


adjective
2. telling or containing lies (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/lie); deliberately untruthful; deceitful; false: a lying report.
Synonyms: deceptive (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/deceptive), misleading (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/misleading), mendacious (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/mendacious), fallacious (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/fallacious); sham (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/sham), counterfeit (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/counterfeit).
Antonyms: true (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/true), candid (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/candid), actual (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/actual), correct (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/correct), accurate (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/accurate), trustworthy (http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/trustworthy)

:cry Mason made the picks :cry

[Avante]

You do know Indy plays Houston this Thursday right old man? :lol

Alzheimer's is a bitch, pretty soon you'll forget how to breathe and die :lol

You do know that was an example of why the ATS play in that Indy/Tenn game had to be Indy.....right?

Work on those comprehension skills slick, ok?

[Avante]

What's fucking funny is nobody can...'Russell Wilson can't...."....any longer. All anyone can say is..."yep, the guy is great"...or nothing at all.

Nobody in the league has a better..."intelligence/arm/mobility"....combo than this guy. No QB is harder to defend than RW.

[Avante]

As of right now.

Top 10 QB's

1.Peyton
2.Rodgers
3.Rivers
4.Brady
5.Brees
6.RW
7.Luck
8.Romo
9.Big Ben
10. Ryan

[Avante]

How does...

Division winners...

Seattle
GB
Philly
NO
Denver
Cincy
Indy
NE

Wildcards

Niners
Cowboys
Chargers
Ravens

look?

[Aztecfan03]

You do know that was an example of why the ATS play in that Indy/Tenn game had to be Indy.....right?

Work on those comprehension skills slick, ok?

You know nothing in your wording indicated you were talking about a game that already happened, right? You know stats through week 5 wouldn't have mattered for a week 4 game, right?

[Avante]

You know nothing in your wording indicated you were talking about a game that already happened, right? You know stats through week 5 wouldn't have mattered for a week 4 game, right?

I do make this mistake constantly on these boards and do admit it. I do assume things are totaly obvious when it appears they aren't.

I was just trying to use some numbers to illustrate a point. It could have been any two teams and even bogus numbers. The point was when see those kinds of numbers what should that tell us, what message does it bring?

This week for an example....

Indy at Houston on a Thursday night. A big division game, which means both will bring it.

Indy is a RF, in that "spot" on a Thursday night.....7-1, vs their div...5-1, yep ATS.

Houston in this "spot"....1-1 as a dog, vs the div..0-2.

So we have Indy with a 15-3 trend favoring them to cover. No team has won more games than Indy on a Thurday night, they are 10-1, that is the best in the league.

Now add this...

Since Luck arrived Indy is 3-1 ATS vs Houston.

So what's the obvious play?

I will lay the 2.5 in this "spot" and take Indy. Andrew Luck vs Ryan Whoever.....gotta love it!

Since Luck has arrived Indy is 11-2-1 ATS vs the division.

Now before some rookie...."but most those years it was Peyton....." it doesn't matter since this is a division game. The Colts rule that division.

[Avante]

So who out there can make a case for Houston and the points in this "spot"? Indy being the one team where that Thursday night thing doesn't appear to matter.

[Avante]

Home/Road.....I've noticed most of you don't get that, it's huge in the pro game. And the reason I can;t load up on Indy in this "spot'.

[Aztecfan03]

Home/Road.....I've noticed most of you don't get that, it's huge in the pro game. And the reason I can;t load up on Indy in this "spot'.

Most of us do get that.

[Avante]

Most of us do get that.

I doubt it.

[Blake]

I doubt it.

who cares what you doubt

[Avante]

who cares what you doubt

So who were the best Viking receivers?

Chris Carter
Randy Moss
Gene Washington
Jake Reed
Sammie White
Anthony Carter

[Avante]

One minute I;m this old man, then when I talk about things only that old man would know.....you Googled that...hahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!

Little people, little people, hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was there when Curtis McClinton (Kansas) became th first AFL player to score a TD vs the NFL in Superbowl I (not that it was called that then)

I was there when Heisman winner Billy Cannon (LSU) choose the young AFL Oilers over the old NFL.

I was there when Wake Forests Brian Piccolo led the nation in rushing, only to end up on the Bears with the great Gale Sayers (Kansas)

I was there when Jim Brown wasn't the most exciting back in that Cleveland Brown backfield, that was Big10 sprint/hurdle champ Bobby Mitchell.

I was there when big 250 pound fullback Cookie Gilchrist was running over and away from AFL defenses.

I was there when Johnny Unitas had all these future HOFers to throw to....TE John Mackay, WR Ray Berry and RB Lenny Moore.

I was there before there was a Dallas Cowboys.

Why fight it so damn hard?

It's 1959, a season where "Jaguar" Jon Arnett would rush for over 900 yards and lead the league in punt returns. He was a Ram, I know this because I saw it happen.

[Avante]

Once upon a time....

We didn't have instant replay, and the game was far better then. Part of the game was the refs, if they fucked up, oh well. Chances are it woud all even out over a season anyway.

Fullbacks were the stud backs, Jim Brown was a fullback. And we saw two back sets, so every team had a running back duo.

QB's weren't nearly as big, the Rams Roman Gabriel was around 6-3 230 and was an oddity.

Obviously the players weren't as big at any position, that's why Jim Brown stuck out like he did, he was as big as backs are today at 6-2 230 and he had speed.

The Chiefs Otis Taylor was the first of the big speedy physical receivers, he was a QB at Prairie View and the guy who broke it open in SB IV.

Obviously back then nobody cared much about safety so we saw a more barbaric game but it was played by smaller/slower athletes.......generally speaking. Bob Hayes, Jim Brown, Dick Butkus, Gale Sayers some exceptions.

[Avante]

The Colts are the highest scoring team in the league and have given up 108 points they are a plus 48, the Texans a plus 17.

Hmmmm?

Yep, Colts - 2.5 I will play.

[spurraider21]

i think its always better to get the call right

[Avante]

i think its always better to get the call right

Imagine Thursday nights game with no instant replays. The game gets a good flow going, the players aren't standing around waiting. The game is shorter.

Todays game with the instant replay and the total freaking out over safety sucks. It's like trying to make MMA safe or boxing, football is not suppose to be ...all that...safe.

The NFL was great before instant replay.

[spurraider21]

i'll stand by my last comment. if you can get the call right, you should

[Avante]

i'll stand by my last comment. if you can get the call right, you should

How in the hell did the league make it from 1920 until instant replay?

[spurraider21]

How in the hell did the league make it from 1920 until instant replay?
the league having made it is irrelevant. if you can improve it, improve it.

[spurraider21]

Yep, by popular demand.

It's all up to you if this works or not, if things are cool here's where I'll be, if it's the same old shit, fuck it....ok? If all goes well this will be my only thread this season.

So who will be the most productive "undrafted" rookie in 2014?

Keep an eye on Olympic sprinter Jeff Demps at Tampa Bay, when he...finally...takes a handoff/pitch out he will become the fastest running back in NFL history with his 10.01.

Too bad they dumped the....NFL's Fastest Man...competition. I'd love to see Trindon Holliday, Demps and Jacoby Ford go at it.
lets keep to this thread please. no need to keep making more

[Avante]

Dallas vs Seattle

Dallas has beat Tennessee and St.Louis on the road. The only other teams they have beat on the road the last two years were division rivals, places they play all the time. As we all know there is no homefield advantage as strong as what the Seahawks enjoy, it's huge.

What good team wouldn't beat Tenn, St.Louis, New Orleans (who struggle on the road) and Houston who were one play away from beating the Cowboys.

The Seahawks have beaten Green Bay, Denver and San Francisco at home since 2013. That is far more impressive than what Dallas has done on the road in years. And it's always home/road exploits.

Seahawks will win the game, not sure about the ATS situation. I have no strong stat/trend there either way.

[Avante]

lets keep to this thread please. no need to keep making more

If you don't I won't.

[Avante]

If I were an indian there is noway....Redskins....would bother me. What difference is that than being called white, my socks are white and I look nothing like that. Anyone ever see an actual yellow Asian? A banana is yellow.

When did us humans get so damn uptight about every fucking thing anyway?

But.......we are still stupid enought to think alcohol should be legal and pot not, is that stupid or what? Talking pro athletes.

[Avante]

Jordy Nelson and Julian Edelman got me thinking about white receivers. There have been a lot of great ones despite the fact they can't run like the (few exceptions) black ones.

Best white receiver....

Seattle....Steve Largent
Niners...Dwight Clark/Dave Parks/Billy Wilson
St. Louis...Elroy "Crazy Legs" Hirsch/Tom Fears/Jack Snow/Jim Phillips
Cardinals....Bobby Joe Conrad/Sonny Randle/Pat Tilley
Green Bay...Don Hutson/Jordy Nelson/Boyd Dowler/Carroll Dale/Bill Howton
Chicago....Johnny Morris/Harlan Hill
Minnesota...hmmmmm?
Detroit....Pat Studstill/Terry Barr
New Orleans...Dan Abramoweicz
Atlanta....hmmmm?
Tampa Bay...none!
Carolina.....none!
Dallas...Lance Rentzel/Golden Richards
NYG....Del Shofner
Washington.....hmmmmmm?
Philly....Tommy McDonald
Denver.....Steve Watson/Eric Decker
San Diego...Lance Alworth/Gary Garrison
Oakland....Fred Biletnikoff
Kansas City...???
NYJ...Don Maynard/George Sauer/Bake Turner
Miami....Howard Twilley
New England....Gino Cappeletti/Wes Welker/Julian Edelman
Buffalo.....Bill Miller
Baltimore....nope!
Pittsburgh...Buddy Dial
Cleveland...Max Speedie/Dante Levelli/Gary Collins
Cinncy.....Chris Collinsworth
Indy....Ray Berry/Jimmy Orr/Roger Carr
Oilers/Titans....Charley Hennighan***/Bill Groman/Tim Smith
Jax.....nope!
Houston....nope!

*** the best receiver totally lost in obscurity, he held the most yards in a season record (over 15.00 yards) for years. Became an author after football, his "Slim" a cool read.

[chunticakes]

Jordy Nelson and Julian Edelman got me thinking about white receivers. There have been a lot of great ones despite the fact they can't run like the (few exceptions) black ones.

Best white receiver....

Seattle....Steve Largent
Niners...Dwight Clark/Dave Parks/Billy Wilson
St. Louis...Elroy "Crazy Legs" Hirsch/Tom Fears/Jack Snow/Jim Phillips
Cardinals....Bobby Joe Conrad/Sonny Randle/Pat Tilley
Green Bay...Don Hutson/Jordy Nelson/Boyd Dowler/Carroll Dale/Bill Howton
Chicago....Johnny Morris/Harlan Hill
Minnesota...hmmmmm?
Detroit....Pat Studstill/Terry Barr
New Orleans...Dan Abramoweicz
Atlanta....hmmmm?
Tampa Bay...none!
Carolina.....none!
Dallas...Lance Rentzel/Golden Richards
NYG....Del Shofner
Washington.....hmmmmmm?
Philly....Tommy McDonald
Denver.....Steve Watson/Eric Decker
San Diego...Lance Alworth/Gary Garrison
Oakland....Fred Biletnikoff
Kansas City...???
NYJ...Don Maynard/George Sauer/Bake Turner
Miami....Howard Twilley
New England....Gino Cappeletti/Wes Welker/Julian Edelman
Buffalo.....Bill Miller
Baltimore....nope!
Pittsburgh...Buddy Dial
Cleveland...Max Speedie/Dante Levelli/Gary Collins
Cinncy.....Chris Collinsworth
Indy....Ray Berry/Jimmy Orr/Roger Carr
Oilers/Titans....Charley Hennighan***/Bill Groman/Tim Smith
Jax.....nope!
Houston....nope!

*** the best receiver totally lost in obscurity, he held the most yards in a season record (over 15.00 yards) for years. Became an author after football, his "Slim" a cool read.

what are the picks for the week, homeslice?

[Aztecfan03]

what are the picks for the week, homeslice?
He gave them somewhere.

edit on his kings of thursday night thread:
So 14-14 and will play

SD-7...Philip Rivers is playing better than any QB in league right now vs a team that has lost what 30 (kidding) in a row?

NYG + 3....the dog in this series is 16-3 in the last 19. The Eagles are a weak HF's and have o line problems.

Denver - 9.5...Peyton Manning vs Geno Smith, boy that's a tuff one.

Cinncy - 6.5....the old "good team coming off a road loss back at home"...the Pats a perfect example of that. The Bengals 8-1 as HF's in the last nine.

Might pull the trigger on the Niners minus the number if I hit on those.

[spurraider21]

Ed McCaffrey

[Avante]

14-14

SD-7.......Phillip Rivers!
Den -9.5.....Manning vs Geno!
Giants +3.....dog is 16-3 last 19 in this series
Cincy - 6.5....good team back at home coming off a road loss
Pitt + 2....Big Ben is 18-1 in this "spot".

[chunticakes]

14-14

SD-7
Den -9.5
Giants +3
Cincy - 6.5
Pitt + 2

God bless son.

[Avante]

Add

Minn + 1.5...one of the strongest HD's in the league
Miami + 3.5...see above.
Dallas + 8.5....The old ....good QB getting more than a TD.

[chunticakes]

19-11 on the season already hit on Indy Thursday

Denver
Miami
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
San Diego

[Avante]

19-11 on the season already hit on Indy Thursday

Denver
Miami
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
San Diego

I like to play good teams coming off a loss. What do you look for?

[spurraider21]

14-14

SD-7.......Phillip Rivers!
Den -9.5.....Manning vs Geno!
Giants +3.....dog is 16-3 last 19 in this series
Cincy - 6.5....good team back at home coming off a road loss
Pitt + 2....Big Ben is 18-1 in this "spot".
:lmao

[Aztecfan03]

:lmao

don't forget his additional picks.

[spurraider21]

So far he got Denver, Miami correct. has missed on Cincinnati, Minnesota, Pittsburgh.

he's got Chargers, Cowboys, Giants riding

[spurraider21]

3-4 so far, with the giants game pending

hit Denver, Miami, Dallas... missed on Cinci, Minnesota, Pitt, and SD

[Aztecfan03]

3-4 so far, with the giants game pending

hit Denver, Miami, Dallas... missed on Cinci, Minnesota, Pitt, and SD

technically 4-4 on the week with the colts pick but the eagles will give him another losing week

[spurraider21]

technically 4-4 on the week with the colts pick but the eagles will give him another losing week
i reflected that in the betting tracker thread :tu

[Aztecfan03]

i reflected that in the betting tracker thread :tu
yeah i know. he already added that game to his score here.

[Clipper Nation]

:lol Old Fat-Gut
:lol ANOTHER losing week
:lol That "spot"
:lol "Betting expert"
:lol "NFL historian"
:lol "This is gonna be fun hahahahaha~~~"

[Aztecfan03]

Not sure where else to post this- I am staying away from the Chargers for the next two weeks.

They are at home vs. KC next week but are getting even more injured and Andy Reid is 13-2 coming off his bye(Btw, thanks NFL for 2 straight games against division foes coming off byes) Also, they have to play the next thursday vs denver and not sure if that affects them next sunday at all.

Which leads me to: A thursday road game at denver? No thank you.

[Avante]

Might as well play my Niners - 3.5 tomorrow night.

They have covered 10-1 vs the divison the last 11 on MNF vs the division

They have beat the Rams by at least 10 the last two times they played.

They are 8-1ATS last nine on MNF and have never lost on MNF in the Harbaugh era.

Already looking at week seven.

The Pats at home on a Thursday night vs a team that is minus 62 points.

Baltimore at home vs one of the worst road teams in the league Atlanta.
Arizona minus whatever vs a Raider team that had it's big game.
Buffalo at home again vs another bad road team Minnesota.

[Avante]

Not sure where else to post this- I am staying away from the Chargers for the next two weeks.

They are at home vs. KC next week but are getting even more injured and Andy Reid is 13-2 coming off his bye(Btw, thanks NFL for 2 straight games against division foes coming off byes) Also, they have to play the next thursday vs denver and not sure if that affects them next sunday at all.

Which leads me to: A thursday road game at denver? No thank you.

Smart move, then after their bye week jump back on them at home vs Raiders and Cards. Then it really gets tough with...

at Ravens
NE
Denver
at Niners
at KC

[spurraider21]

Giants +3.....dog is 16-3 last 19 in this series
Pitt + 2....Big Ben is 18-1 in this "spot".


Might as well play my Niners - 3.5 tomorrow night.

They have covered 10-1 vs the divison the last 11 on MNF vs the division

They are 8-1ATS last nine on MNF and have never lost on MNF in the Harbaugh era.
when are you going to learn? historic trends are irrelevant

[Avante]

Stud QB's, hmmm?

Rodgers won
Brady won
Manning won
RW lost
Luck won
Rivers won

3-3 as far as ATS goes.

[Avante]

when are you going to learn? historic trends are irrelevant

Tampa Bay 0-6 ATS heading into a bye.

Indy had a shit load of historical trends on their side Thursday night. Where were you there?

Miami is a great HD.

Chicago 5-2ATS last seven vs Atl

NE 8-2ATS vs Buffalo last 10

and I could go on and on.

Minnesota has a rookie QB not ready yet, I thought he was.
Yep the Browns are a different team now.

Dallas 5-2 last 7 vs Seattle.

Denver 4-1ATS last five vs NYJ.

[spurraider21]

the problem is just how arbitrary they are...

Dallas 5-2 in last 7 vs Seattle? how many of these are in the Wilson/Lynch/Sherman/Carroll era? anything before 2012 is basically completely irrelevant.

another problem is how pointless they are

Denver 4-1 in last 5 against the jets... is THAT why you took them? or maybe just because the jets are terrible and the broncos are elite.

[Avante]

the problem is just how arbitrary they are...

Dallas 5-2 in last 7 vs Seattle? how many of these are in the Wilson/Lynch/Sherman/Carroll era? anything before 2012 is basically completely irrelevant.

another problem is how pointless they are

Denver 4-1 in last 5 against the jets... is THAT why you took them? or maybe just because the jets are terrible and the broncos are elite.

Where were you Thursday night when it went exactly as the trends said it would?

Calm down little fella, don't act like one of the kids here over a couple games...ok? Tons of football to be played.

Here's a play for week seven.

The Falcons are the worst road team in the league "AT" Baltimore next wek, the Ravens one of the best home teams. You see any reason to play Atlanta?

[spurraider21]

Where were you Thursday night when it went exactly as the trends said it would?

Calm down little fella, don't act like one of the kids here over a couple games...ok? Tons of football to be played.
im not acting like it over a couple of games. its a couple of seasons

[Avante]

im not acting like it over a couple of games. its a couple of seasons

Dude, you honestly haven't noticed how close things are now compared to those jive around seasons? Come on man, sure ya do so why the bullshit?

I'll win my 60-65% like I do every year. Stop being a fool.

[spurraider21]

Dude, you honestly haven't noticed how close things are now compared to those jive around seasons? Come on man, sure ya do so why the bullshit?

I'll win my 60-65% like I do every year.
they've actually been remarkably similar. you were under .500 both of those seasons and you're under .500 now. it's really consistent

[Avante]

they've actually been remarkably similar. you were under .500 both of those seasons and you're under .500 now. it's really consistent

I was totally buried by this time in both those fuck around seasons. I was 500 coming into this week and this is only my second losing week. And we all know it does get easier in the second half.

I have no doubts how this will end up, none and you will look silly. If I were something like...6-16 or something like that, ok, but that's not the case at all.

I had a couple bad breaks in week one, since then I 'd gained back those 3 losses. Today I had a team with zero wins play way over their heads, yep...Raiders. I had a total disinterested Giants team show up and a Bengals team really missihng their stud receiver.......shit happens. Oh yeah, and a rookie QB prove he's a rookie.

[spurraider21]

I was totally buried by this time in both those fuck around seasons. I was 500 coming into this week and this is only my second losing week. And we all know it does get easier in the second half.

I have no doubts how this will end up, none and you will look silly. If I were something like...6-16 or something like that, ok, but that's not the case at all.

I had a couple bad breaks in week one, since then I 'd gained back those 3 losses. Today I had a team with zero wins play way over their head, yep...Raiders. I had a total disintersted Giants team show up and a Bengals team really missihng their stud receiver.......shit happens.
you bitch about a bad break in week one, but i dont see you giving your denver win back today. the game was over with the jets covering and they threw a pick-6 with 15 seconds left in the game that bailed your pick out

you would have to pick 11 consecutive games correctly without a single mistake to drag your % up to 59.5 ~ 60

oh and the raiders are 3-2 against the spread this year :lol

[Avante]

you bitch about a bad break in week one, but i dont see you giving your denver win back today. the game was over with the jets covering and they threw a pick-6 with 15 seconds left in the game that bailed your pick out

you would have to pick 11 consecutive games correctly without a single mistake to drag your % up to 59.5 ~ 60

You have been following this real closely so you know I rarely get a break, hell I've lost three games after leading by more 20. Yep, I finally....got a break.

I'm right there little fella, it's not as if I'm wy down in the hole so stop acting like I am...ok? Slow down...ok?

Hell, I've lost three games by a combined 7 points.

[spurraider21]

You have been following this real closely so you know I rarely get a break, hell I've lost three games after leading by more 20. Yep, I finally....got a break.

I'm right there little fella, it's not as if I'm wy down in the hole so stop acting like I am...ok? Slow down...ok?

Hell, I've lost three games by a combined 7 points.
you also won miami today by 0.5 points... we can go at this all day. you are under .500 as usual

[Avante]

you also won miami today by 0.5 points... we can go at this all day. you are under .500 as usual

Funny how when I won Thursday night using trends that all worked you had no comment, funny how that works.

I'll hit my 60%-65% just like I do every year, why you act like a dumb kid over this....????

Little man we aren't even at week 7 yet, and I;m down...2...games, come on little guy. Hell if not for a bogus weather report where I was going to play 220.................