Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[mo7888]

The more I look at it the better I think the chances of the Toronto pick conveying is. The bottom 5 is probably set, next is 4 teams competing for #6. There's an argument that Memphis and Atlanta would like to push for a play in position, but they look pretty bad. I could see them embracing the tank too.

[scott]

Memphis is a sneaky player in the Tank Race. If Ja is done going insane, they should be a pretty good team next year... adding a top 10 pick will only help.

[Seventyniner]

Memphis is a sneaky player in the Tank Race. If Ja is done going insane, they should be a pretty good team next year... adding a top 10 pick will only help.

Agreed. They looked pretty good for a few games once Morant came back but then they faced a few good teams in a row and dropped all three. After their next two games (vs SA, vs TOR) the next 7 are all pretty tough. If they hit the halfway point at 13-28 and in 13th in the West, how hard will they keep trying to win?

[ginobilized]

In complete agreement about the 1-5 lottery spots.

I wouldn't be surprised if Houston hits a wall and plummets down the ranking order into the 7-10 range of the lottery.
Also, very likely that a couple of teams in the east go into a free fall soon. I'd pick Brooklyn and Atlanta for that.

If Toronto ends up 7th and we are top 3 that would be ideal.

[BackHome]

Raptors just killed a good Cleveland team they for sure ain't tanking - Quickly looking like the real deal

[scott]

Raptors just killed a good Cleveland team they for sure ain't tanking - Quickly looking like the real deal

Raptors up 3 on the Cavs with 13 seconds to play. Quickly has been okay. Barrett has looked good this game. Not sure where you got that they killed the Cavs (before the game was even over). Either way, hopefully Raptors can hang on to this one.

[scott]

Raps hang on to win this one.

Barrett with 19/9 (but 5 TO and 5 PF)
IQ with 14 3ast 6reb, 0 TO

Big game from Siamam

[BackHome]

My bad but IQ looks like he is going to really help them

[exstatic]

The more I look at it the better I think the chances of the Toronto pick conveying is. The bottom 5 is probably set, next is 4 teams competing for #6. There's an argument that Memphis and Atlanta would like to push for a play in position, but they look pretty bad. I could see them embracing the tank too.

Memphis one a game or two when Ja came back,but have been horrible since. I think they and Charlotte, with LaMelo injured, are both tanking, and Portland has been all season.

[rascal]

Raps hang on to win this one.

Barrett with 19/9 (but 5 TO and 5 PF)
IQ with 14 3ast 6reb, 0 TO

Big game from Siamam

Siakam will be traded. The Raptors aren't finished with trades. We don't know yet what will happen with the Raptors roster.

[duncan2150]

Siakam will be traded. The Raptors aren't finished with trades. We don't know yet what will happen with the Raptors roster.

What we know is that they beat the cavs yesterday and that they are pick seven actually : 2.5 games away from the sixth and 2.5 games away from the 12th.

And last news about siakam so we'll see https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10103235-report-raptors-pascal-siakam-unlikely-to-sign-contract-if-traded-mavs-more-linked

[tbdog]

My bad but IQ looks like he is going to really help them

He suits the team and they needed his bombing range. Going forward, Barnes and IQ could be a nice two'som.

[couchman]

Siakam is really the question mark.
He’s very good and if/when they trade him they could struggle.

[cd98]

Toronto appears to want young players in exchange for its players and not draft picks in the 16-30 range. That would likely rule out Spurs trades and would likely mean that they will remain somewhat competitive.

[Seventyniner]

Memphis tanking would be great for this pick. The Raptors won't be able to out-tank the bottom 5 teams (Pistons, Spurs, Wizards, Hornets, Blazers) so having a 6th team finishing behind the Raptors would give the Spurs a minimum 68% chance of getting that pick this year.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Memphis is not going into tank mode for a while. I'd say they will at least be in win mode for the next 20 games. If they don't get traction by then they probably pull the plug. Although I am going to be watching the Hornets when Ball finally comes back which should be in the next few games. They were starting to play pretty good after Bridges came back. That 10th spot in the East will go to a sub 500 team. Chicago is there right now. They have Chicago, Atlanta and Toronto ahead of them. A 5 game win streak puts them right back in the mix. I'd say it is unlikely, but I don't see any of those teams being a lock to make it. Heck, they all are more likely to trade away their talent for young players or picks than going on an impressive run.

[exstatic]

Memphis is not going into tank mode for a while. I'd say they will at least be in win mode for the next 20 games. If they don't get traction by then they probably pull the plug. Although I am going to be watching the Hornets when Ball finally comes back which should be in the next few games. They were starting to play pretty good after Bridges came back. That 10th spot in the East will go to a sub 500 team. Chicago is there right now. They have Chicago, Atlanta and Toronto ahead of them. A 5 game win streak puts them right back in the mix. I'd say it is unlikely, but I don't see any of those teams being a lock to make it. Heck, they all are more likely to trade away their talent for young players or picks than going on an impressive run.

It’s funny, because they are on a three game losing streak, and are 4-6 in their last 10, with Ja back for 7 of those. If they’re not tanking,then they Just suck.

[TheGreatYacht]

Knicks fucked us with that retarded trade. Raptors are stacked as hell now and Schroder is now a 6th man where he’s at his best.

Poeltl/Boucher
Siakam
Barnes
Barrett/Trent Jr
Quickley/Schroder

incoming 14th pick.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Knicks fucked us with that retarded trade. Raptors are stacked as hell now and Schroder is now a 6th man where he’s at his best.

Poeltl/Boucher
Siakam
Barnes
Barrett/Trent Jr
Quickley/Schroder

incoming 14th pick.

Meh, better than Raptors finishing with the 5th worst record and getting the 6th pick in the draft which is protected.

[rascal]

Knicks fucked us with that retarded trade. Raptors are stacked as hell now and Schroder is now a 6th man where he’s at his best.

Poeltl/Boucher
Siakam
Barnes
Barrett/Trent Jr
Quickley/Schroder

incoming 14th pick.

Trade looks to have helped with team construction. Raps still might trade Siakam away, hope they make a bad trade.

[TheGreatYacht]

Trade looks to have helped with team construction. Raps still might trade Siakam away, hope they make a bad trade.
This feels like the Derrick White trade all over again ngl. Celtics were 31-25 before that trade jump started their franchise.

Scottie Barnes is playing like a top 20 player now, Siakam is an efficient 22ppg scorer and a legit second option on a championship team, Quickley and Barrett are good role players, Schroder is probably the best 6th man you can have, and Poeltl is the perfect Center for them.

Hopefully this is a purple patch that won’t last long but they look good so far.

[spurraider21]

Quickley balling out for Toronto...

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Quickley doing so well hopefully translates to the Raps not tanking and the Spurs getting the first rounder. We can only keep our fingers crossed that Wright identifies another diamond in the rough as good as Primo if the Raps pick lands somewhere between 9 and 12.

[Extra Stout]

Quickley doing so well hopefully translates to the Raps not tanking and the Spurs getting the first rounder. We can only keep our fingers crossed that Wright identifies another diamond in the rough as good as Primo if the Raps pick lands somewhere between 9 and 12.
It’s rare that a player like Primo ends up dangling in plain sight like that.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

It’s rare that a player like Primo ends up dangling in plain sight like that.

:lol Nice!

[Knoxxx]

Who are our top 3 pick prospects for 2024 draft?

[SpurSpike]

Getting 2 top 10 picks would put us in a very good position to trade up to a top 2 pick if The Spurs really like one of the top players in this draft and cant draft him with the pick they get.

[pookenstein]

Spurs are picking #1 next year again.

[CGD]

Who are our top 3 pick prospects for 2024 draft?

in no particular order, I think it’s Rasicher, Topic, Williams.

Im thinking they go with the best big wing prospect with their natural pick and then a pg with the TOR pick.

I’m intrigued by Sarr but I don’t see them spending another high pick at the same position in successive drafts.

[John B]

in no particular order, I think it’s Rasicher, Topic, Williams.

Im thinking they go with the best big wing prospect with their natural pick and then a pg with the TOR pick.

I’m intrigued by Sarr but I don’t see them spending another high pick at the same position in successive drafts.

I like Topic then Rasicher. But boy just imagine a twin tower?? Teams would be hating to play against Spurs.

[duncan2150]

Who are our top 3 pick prospects for 2024 draft?

For the moment there is not a consensus; the top 5 looks like sarr, topic, holland, risacher, williams if you read mocks.


I like Topic then Rasicher. But boy just imagine a twin tower?? Teams would be hating to play against Spurs.

Sarr is mobile, can shoot, protect the rim, rebound, imo he's a good fit for the spurs.

[CGD]

I like Topic then Rasicher. But boy just imagine a twin tower?? Teams would be hating to play against Spurs.

I like the idea of Sarr, but one of the lessons from this season of experiments is that the double big Wemby-Collins like up didn’t really work. Maybe that’s a function of Zach not hitting his 3s like they thought he could to help space the floor, so perhaps there is a world where Sarr projects to be a reliable knock down shooter and they go for it?

The bottom line is Wemby + Jermey (yes Pop will start him) + another non-shooting big doesn’t seems to be the best roster construction. It’s why I’m a big proponent of getting someone in the Jabari Smith archetype to go along with those two.

[John B]

I like the idea of Sarr, but one of the lessons from this season of experiments is that the double big Wemby-Collins like up didn’t really work. Maybe that’s a function of Zach not hitting his 3s like they thought he could to help space the floor, so perhaps there is a world where Sarr projects to be a reliable knock down shooter and they go for it?

The bottom line is Wemby + Jermey (yes Pop will start him) + another non-shooting big doesn’t seems to be the best roster construction. It’s why I’m a big proponent of getting someone in the Jabari Smith archetype to go along with those two.

I’m with you on Risacher especially once Wemby commands double/triple-teams around the post. Having a shooter with defensive length.

The Collins comparison though, Zach is not Sarr defensively. Zach does not deter shots like Sarr would, and not a lob target. It would be lob city to have Wemby and Sarr, not to mention a defensive fortress. But then again, you need people to throw those lobs. It’s just a pleasant thought, call it nostalgic. I go back and forth. But boy if Sarr continues to improve as a true #1 prospect, I’m taking Sarr.

[rascal]

I’m with you on Risacher especially once Wemby commands double/triple-teams around the post. Having a shooter with defensive length.

The Collins comparison though, Zach is not Sarr defensively. Zach does not deter shots like Sarr would, and not a lob target. It would be lob city to have Wemby and Sarr, not to mention a defensive fortress. But then again, you need people to throw those lobs. It’s just a pleasant thought, call it nostalgic. I go back and forth. But boy if Sarr continues to improve as a true #1 prospect, I’m taking Sarr.

You might now get Topic with the Toronto pick if that pick conveys and if not then draft Castle who I like more anyways. Castle will be strong offensively and defensively.

[mo7888]

You might now get Topic with the Toronto pick if that pick conveys and if not then draft Castle who I like more anyways. Castle will be strong offensively and defensively.

Who do you like for the Spurs pick if we assume we're getting Tipic/Castle/ Dillingham with rhe Toronto pick?

[rascal]

Who do you like for the Spurs pick if we assume we're getting Tipic/Castle/ Dillingham with rhe Toronto pick?

Haven't decided yet for the top pick, maybe Sarr it would allow to move Sochan to the bench.

What I want is Castle out of this draft and if they can come out of it with Castle with the Toronto pick that would be perfect.

Spurs defense would be a lot better with Sarr and Castle and their offense improved too moving Sochan and any pg Pop puts out there this year to the bench.

[CGD]

You might now get Topic with the Toronto pick if that pick conveys and if not then draft Castle who I like more anyways. Castle will be strong offensively and defensively.

I think this is the crux of it: they should take their PG with the TOR pick if it conveys but not their natural pick.

Dillingham is coming on strong, Collier is still really good, the other Kentucky pg is good too. Are we sure Topic is THAT much more head and shoulders ahead of those guys? I honestly dont know.

[The Truth #6]

You might now get Topic with the Toronto pick if that pick conveys and if not then draft Castle who I like more anyways. Castle will be strong offensively and defensively.

I need to check him out more.

[mo7888]

Haven't decided yet for the top pick, maybe Sarr it would allow to move Sochan to the bench.

What I want is Castle out of this draft and if they can come out of it with Castle with the Toronto pick that would be perfect.

Spurs defense would be a lot better with Sarr and Castle and their offense improved too moving Sochan and any pg Pop puts out there this year to the bench.

Gotcha....that's reasonable .. For me it depends on where we select the PG...assuming its the Toronto pick I'm looking Risacher or Sarr at our pick if it's top 2. If its a little lower and they are off the board, I'm looking at Salaun or Buzelis and maybe Walter or Williams. For the PG, I have Topic, then Dillingham, and then Castle. However, I do expect Castle to pass Dillingham and make a run there as his season progresses and he rounds into form. If all 3 are off the board and the Toronto pick drops to 12-14 I'm either going Shephard or kicking the tires on Proctor or Wagner.

[onechance87]

Haven't decided yet for the top pick, maybe Sarr it would allow to move Sochan to the bench.

What I want is Castle out of this draft and if they can come out of it with Castle with the Toronto pick that would be perfect.

Spurs defense would be a lot better with Sarr and Castle and their offense improved too moving Sochan and any pg Pop puts out there this year to the bench.

stephon castle is a bigger tre jones....Think hes made 1 three point shot so far which is not a good sign..
Hopefully he starts knockng down 3s....Cause last thing we need is another pg who cant shoot

[rascal]

stephon castle is a bigger tre jones....Think hes made 1 three point shot so far which is not a good sign..
Hopefully he starts knockng down 3s....Cause last thing we need is another pg who cant shoot

That's his worst weakness but much better overall than Jones. Jones is only 6'1 and doesn't have the athletic ability that Castle has. Castle is a lob dunk threat cutting to the basket and is 6'6" and a good defender.

Topic also doesn't shoot the 3 shot well. There are no perfect pgs in the draft that are great in all areas.

[Knoxxx]

I think I am seeing some consensus that we need a PG and a beefy rim protecting big primarily. Which I was thinking myself at least. Remember when we had Duncan and Robinson, how unfair it must have seemed to the poor little other NBA teams. I want to see them and their fans near tears over that again!

[Knoxxx]

That's his worst weakness but much better overall than Jones. Jones is only 6'1 and doesn't have the athletic ability that Castle has. Castle is a lob dunk threat cutting to the basket and is 6'6" and a good defender.

Topic also doesn't shoot the 3 shot well. There are no perfect pgs in the draft that are great in all areas.

Interestingly, the 6-1 Jones looked taller to me than the 6-2 Lillard. Lillard still is clearly the better athlete though, despite his advancing age.

[scott]

Raptors win again, 3rd in the last 4 (the lone loss coming on the road against the Kings, a 5pt loss). Now sitting only a half game out of the Play-In spot (9 and 10 current tied a half game ahead).

Spurs fans may have been counting chickens too soon in assuming this would be a top 10 pick. Will have to see what happens with Siakam.

[Chinook]

Raptors win again, 3rd in the last 4 (the lone loss coming on the road against the Kings, a 5pt loss). Now sitting only a half game out of the Play-In spot (9 and 10 current tied a half game ahead).

Spurs fans may have been counting chickens too soon in assuming this would be a top 10 pick. Will have to see what happens with Siakam.

The 7th pick has about twice the odds of not conveying as the 10th pick, and the quality of player is supposed to be pretty similar. I'm more hoping the Raptors are in the 9-11 range, as I don't want that pick going into 2025 more than I want the maximum pick in terms of draft slot.

A number of people complain about this draft and Wright's ability, but the Spurs have only made two selections in the top 10 in decades. On a roster where multiple cast-offs and late-firsts are trying to make it, I think even a "bad draft" lotto talent will be a nice add.

[scott]

The 7th pick has about twice the odds of not conveying as the 10th pick, and the quality of player is supposed to be pretty similar. I'm more hoping the Raptors are in the 9-11 range, as I don't want that pick going into 2025 more than I want the maximum pick in terms of draft slot.

A number of people complain about this draft and Wright's ability, but the Spurs have only made two selections in the top 10 in decades. On a roster where multiple cast-offs and late-firsts are trying to make it, I think even a "bad draft" lotto talent will be a nice add.

I do agree, for asset management purposes alone, that it is in our interest for the TOR pick to convey this year. If not, we'd have the potential for up to 5 FRPs next season (3 of which I would put in the more-than-likely-to-convey category [SA, ATL, TOR], one in the 50/50-to-convey [CHI], and one in the unlikely-to-convey [CHA]). I don't think we'd even want three, and depending on this offseason you may not even want two.

[mystargtr34]

The 7th pick has about twice the odds of not conveying as the 10th pick, and the quality of player is supposed to be pretty similar. I'm more hoping the Raptors are in the 9-11 range, as I don't want that pick going into 2025 more than I want the maximum pick in terms of draft slot.

A number of people complain about this draft and Wright's ability, but the Spurs have only made two selections in the top 10 in decades. On a roster where multiple cast-offs and late-firsts are trying to make it, I think even a "bad draft" lotto talent will be a nice add.

Agree with this. I’d rather the raptors end up with the 10th worst record than the 7th worst record. 7th worst means there’s still a decent chance they jump into the top 6 during the lottery. I think the raptors can make a good run with this new squad. But can’t see them moving past the 8th seed in the East (Orlando, NY, Miami, Indiana will all stay ahead in the 4-7 range). Can see the raptors ending up with a better record than Chicago, Brooklyn, Atlanta. This gives them the 9th best record in the East. In the West only Spurs and Blazers will for sure end up with a worse record and the Grizz and Jazz are a toss up. The rest of the West will end ip with a better record than the Raps.

That means the likely plausible range for the Raps pick is 6-10.

‘Worst’ plausible case for the Spurs is the raptors finish with the 20th best record in the league which is the 10th worst record or the 10th pick on the draft. ‘Best’ plausible case for the Spurs is that the Raptors end up with 6th worst record (Detroit, Spurs, Washington, Hornets, Blazers) and someone jumps them and spurs end up with 7th pick.

[Seventyniner]

fwiw the 10th worst team has a higher chance of jumping into the top 4 (16.9%) than the Spurs had of getting Wemby (14.0%).

[spurraider21]

Ja out for season

memphis in tank mode

[Seventyniner]

Ja out for season

memphis in tank mode

Oh shit that's big news. No way Toronto out-tanks Memphis now.

[BackHome]

Yeah, but with the type of injury I wonder if they go for a PG?

[Knoxxx]

If Jones is our starting PG, we still need a solid backup!

[duncan2150]

Really good news, now the top 6 is stacked : hornets, spurs, wizards, pistons, trailblazers and grizz.

[couchman]

The questions becomes how high they can climb in the standings.
They’ve looked great since the trade and sit at 8th worst right now league-wide but are only 3.5 games behind the 15th spot.
They’re only a half game behind the play-in.
A lot will depend on whether they can get equal or better value for Siakam and the roster construction after that.

[rascal]

Really good news, now the top 6 is stacked : hornets, spurs, wizards, pistons, trailblazers and grizz.

The Spurs may be losing a top ten pick.

Who may be the target for the Spurs from 11-15 in the draft?

[mo7888]

The Spurs may be losing a top ten pick.

Who may be the target for the Spurs from 11-15 in the draft?

I think some of the same names we're looking at in the 7-8 range could be available. I imagine one of Topic, Dillingham, Collier, or Castle will be there.

[Bruno]

Raptors might finish 9th or 10th in the East and then qualify to the playoffs through the play-in tournament. In that case, Spurs will get the 15th or 16th pick from them.

[Mr. Body]

I'm not sure I believe Toronto's success will last. RJ Barrett is an inefficient player who needs the ball in his hand. Quickley is a nice scorer who will help a good deal, but their defense will suffer. Maybe they'll be better -- but since the trade, a small group of games, they've only beat the Wizards and a spiraling Warriors.

In the games ahead they face the Lakers, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, Knicks. Then Bulls, Hawks, Rockets, etc. They do face the Ja-less Grizz. I don't know if they're going to be competitive against the top teams and they still seem like they're in the Bulls category.

[Seventyniner]

Ideally the Raptors stay close enough to the play-in to not be sellers at the deadline, and then collapse down the stretch.

With Morant out for the season it will be almost impossible for the Raptors to tank all the way into the bottom 6 so they will likely try to win from here on.

[spurraider21]

1744808801314951202

[duncan2150]

The Spurs may be losing a top ten pick.

Who may be the target for the Spurs from 11-15 in the draft?

So we ok the pick will convey, that's good lol

It's a top 6 protected pick, you could not have better than pick seven so having a pick 11 would be good....


1744808801314951202

Good for the pick

[exstatic]

So we ok the pick will convey, that's good lol

It's a top 6 protected pick, you could not have better than pick seven so having a pick 11 would be good....



Good for the pick

No, bad for the pick. We don’t want them losing.

[TheGreatYacht]

1744970055614669207

Must be nice to have a coach that gives a crap. They got robbed against the Laker$ today, thankfully for us. They almost won with Thad Young guarding AD. They're an offensive juggernaut.

[duncan2150]

No, bad for the pick. We don’t want them losing.

that's your opinion not mine, i don't want them to win too much. They could have won the Lakers at LA without Jakob.

Now that they're out of the top 5 pick race if they could be so-so it's ok for me.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

that's your opinion not mine, i don't want them to win too much. They could have won the Lakers at LA without Jakob.

Now that they're out of the top 5 pick race if they could be so-so it's ok for me.

Precisely. We want them in the 6-9 limbo for as long as possible. Not knowing whether they should push for the last play in spot or sell and tank hard.

[Mr. Body]

Last night was winnable even without Poeltl. They're going to struggle in games ahead.

[duncan2150]

Last night was winnable even without Poeltl. They're going to struggle in games ahead.

It will be really interesting to see how they'll figure it out in the next 10 games or so.

[RC_Drunkford]

the only reason the Raptors didn't win were the Laker Refs. 22-2 FTs in the 2nd half? :lol

[TrainOfThought5]

the only reason the Raptors didn't win were the Laker Refs. 22-2 FTs in the 2nd half? :lol

put on me team losing is good for the raptors. I don’t think they’ll out tank the bottom six teams.

[Mugen]

1744970055614669207

Must be nice to have a coach that gives a crap. They got robbed against the Laker$ today, thankfully for us. They almost won with Thad Young guarding AD. They're an offensive juggernaut.

This. The old man would have been across half court as soon as the buzzer sounded lifting Ham on his shoulders :lol

So very sad that his loser mentality has permeated throughout most of the organization tbh.

[Mr. Body]

The next few weeks will be pretty interesting.

Toronto faces a great-playing Utah team, Celtics, Heat, Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies, Clippers, Hawks, Bulls, Rockets, Thunder, Pelicans.

A number of those will be pretty difficult for them and maybe only the Grizzlies are a gimme.

San Antonio, meanwhile, play Hornets, Bulls, Hawks, Celtics, Hornets, Wizards, Sixers, Thunder, Blazers, Timberwolves, Wizards, Magic.

Some of those will be slaughters, but there are some teams should give them a clear shot to more victories esp CHA x2, WAS x2, Trailblazers.

Toronto could move around a bit in the standings, but probably not enough to become worst-6. San Antonio has an outside chance of popping above Charlotte and Portland, depending.

[TheGreatYacht]

They're so fun to watch. Watched the 4th quarter last night, they had the hottest team in the league on the ropes despite being without Poeltl and Siakam. It's only been 6 games after the trade but they look like an offensive juggernaut. Problem is they can't defend at all.

Barrett as a Raptor: 21.8ppg, 6.8rpg, 3.5 apg on 59/54/77 shooting splits
Quickley as a Raptor: 19.2ppg, 4.7rpg, 6.2apg on 43/46/84 shooting splits

I think the worst 6 teams in the league are pretty much a lock and don't see anyone overtaking them. Detroit, Charlotte, Washington, San Antonio, Portland, and Memphis. As far as odds go I would give it a 90% chance that pick converts. My guess is it will be 12th

[rascal]

They're so fun to watch. Watched the 4th quarter last night, they had the hottest team in the league on the ropes despite being without Poeltl and Siakam. It's only been 6 games after the trade but they look like an offensive juggernaut. Problem is they can't defend at all.

Barrett as a Raptor: 21.8ppg, 6.8rpg, 3.5 apg on 59/54/77 shooting splits
Quickley as a Raptor: 19.2ppg, 4.7rpg, 6.2apg on 43/46/84 shooting splits

I think the worst 6 teams in the league are pretty much a lock and don't see anyone overtaking them. Detroit, Charlotte, Washington, San Antonio, Portland, and Memphis. As far as odds go I would give it a 90% chance that pick converts. My guess is it will be 12th

Spurs are boring and lack team athleticism and the ability to score off fast breaks as compared to both Toronto and the Clippers. You don't see a bunch of slow white players on those teams.

[TD 21]

:lmao Harlem, you sound like their buddies in the national media, giddy and gloating at this small sample size, proclaiming them fixed.

They've committed to being a treadmill team and would be facing backlash for it if they were many other teams.

[spurraider21]

:lmao Harlem, you sound like their buddies in the national media, giddy and gloating at this small sample size, proclaiming them fixed.

They've committed to being a treadmill team and would be facing backlash for it if they were many other teams.
i dont think TGY is harlem. he doesnt said tbh nearly enough

and yes, the raptors should have blown it up and sold OG for draft capital. but if they were going to try to reload instead of rebuild, they got some decent pieces to do so. and quickley is a long term piece that you could consider part of a rebuild.

[Chinook]

Huh? Toronto is failing pretty hard right now and is at legit risk of having a top 6 pick. I hope they start winning again, but I don't get why people are assuming the Spurs are getting a late-lottery pick right now. It's still not out of the question SA finishes with a better record than them if the Spurs make the short-sighted deal some want them to.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I want Toronto to lose but not to the point they end up with a top 6
Pick

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Huh? Toronto is failing pretty hard right now and is at legit risk of having a top 6 pick. I hope they start winning again, but I don't get ehy people are assuming the Spurs are getting a late-lottery pick. right now.

Exactly

[Mr. Body]

I think TOR is doing a soft rebuild. They have a great piece in Barnes surrounded by productive players they can use or trade. I don't think Quickley/Barrett move the needle much this year, but it moves on from Anunoby, who was going to be extremely expensive if he stayed, and we'll probably see Siakam, an expiring, moved for, say, Kuminga and Moody. I expect they want the TOR pick to go this year and not have to worry about it. Also opens up trading future FRPs (I believe).

That's not a 'win now' team, but it's not a tear down. It does give them multiple young players who are still growing and, tbh, is a pretty smooth soft rebuild.

[Seventyniner]

Huh? Toronto is failing pretty hard right now and is at legit risk of having a top 6 pick. I hope they start winning again, but I don't get why people are assuming the Spurs are getting a late-lottery pick right now. It's still not out of the question SA finishes with a better record than them if the Spurs make the short-sighted deal some want them to.

The Raptors almost certainly will finish with a better record than the current bottom 4 (Pistons, Spurs, Wizards, Hornets) and they're 5 wins ahead of Portland who also is either incapable or unwilling to win. If the Grizzlies pull the plug then the Raptors will need to tank hard and fast to try and get the 5th or 6th worst record.

If they do get the 6th worst record, there's still only a 45.8% chance they get to keep the pick, and 63.9% if they have the 5th worst record.

It's actually shaping up to be closet to the best case scenario for the Spurs (at least at this point in the season), where they get a high percentage shot at a pick in the 7-9 range.

We might also see Atlanta tear things down so they can get one last high pick before the Spurs take control of their draft through 2027, and imo the Warriors are a darkhorse pick to tank late.

Edit: two more things: the Raptors have an expected record of 18-20 based on point differential, and if they keep playing the rest of the season like they have so far they won't finish anywhere close to the bottom 6 records; also they have had the 11th easiest schedule so far so that will work in their favor if they want to tank.

[TD 21]

They're the East version of the Warriors. The national media is forever either trying to fix them or proclaim them fixed virtually everytime they string together back to back wins.

If you follow the highest profile "insiders" on Twitter/X or listen to any of their podcasts, see how much content is produced about them and how slanted the tone is, while they pretend half the league doesn't exist.



Edit: two more things: the Raptors have an expected record of 18-20 based on point differential, and if they keep playing the rest of the season like they have so far they won't finish anywhere close to the bottom 6 records; also they have had the 11th easiest schedule so far so that will work in their favor if they want to tank.

Not necessarily. Sometimes the point differential and expected record don't more or less even out in the end.

The league will be caught between a rock and a hard place: Either help their most hyped prospect in 20 years or help their buddies (the Knicks didn't want Silver adjudicating their legal dispute with them because he's known to be friends/mentee of their majority owner Tannenbaum, as well as Ujiri and their GM Wagner, who came from the league office).

[CGD]

Huh? Toronto is failing pretty hard right now and is at legit risk of having a top 6 pick. I hope they start winning again, but I don't get why people are assuming the Spurs are getting a late-lottery pick right now. It's still not out of the question SA finishes with a better record than them if the Spurs make the short-sighted deal some want them to.

It’ll be close for sure, but it’s just as likely to be the “best case” scenario of landing at 7.

The Memphis situation has to help.

[mo7888]

Huh? Toronto is failing pretty hard right now and is at legit risk of having a top 6 pick. I hope they start winning again, but I don't get why people are assuming the Spurs are getting a late-lottery pick right now. It's still not out of the question SA finishes with a better record than them if the Spurs make the short-sighted deal some want them to.

Toronto has a better record in their last 10 games than everyone below them except for Memphis who just lost Ja and is now going to tank. It's going to take a herculean effort to out tank those team. They might get lucky with the ping pong balls though..

[BackHome]

My Lort i just saw the Portland vs Oklahoma game you all think we suck I can’t remember the last time I have watched a team get beaten by 62 point!!

[Amuseddaysleeper]

My Lort i just saw the Portland vs Oklahoma game you all think we suck I can’t remember the last time I have watched a team get beaten by 62 point!!


That same Portland team beat us, we do suck

[Chinook]

Again, folks are uber-confident that the Raptors are going to give their pick, but Toronto is currently in the six slot and are continuing their free fall. The Siakam trade is definitely rebuilding rather than reloading. At this point, the Spurs have to hope for a Young trade so the Hawks can start playing catch-up.

[mo7888]

Again, folks are uber-confident that the Raptors are going to give their pick, but Toronto is currently in the six slot and are continuing their free fall. The Siakam trade is definitely rebuilding rather than reloading. At this point, the Spurs have to hope for a Young trade so the Hawks can start playing catch-up.

Realistically its Toronto or Memphis at 6 and 7 and a ping pong ball will decide it.

[Chinook]

Realistically its Toronto or Memphis at 6 and 7 and a ping pong ball will decide it.

I don't know. Toronto's roster is awful. I'm not convinced they don't find a way to pass Portland.

[mo7888]

I don't know. Toronto's roster is awful. I'm not convinced they don't find a way to pass Portland.

It's bad, but I don't think it's Portland bad. Portland will also move Brogdon and get worse.

[CGD]

I don't know. Toronto's roster is awful. I'm not convinced they don't find a way to pass Portland.

I think it’s a good bet it conveys on records. ATL, MEM, BKN, and TOR are all within a game of each other. They are the next tranche after the Miserable 5. And the distance between them and the TOR tranche is currently about 6 games. Memphis is poised to tank now, and ATL could also change on a dime.

Toronto could look pretty decent with a Quickly, Mathurin, Barret, Barnes, Jakob line up.

[Mr. Body]

Again, folks are uber-confident that the Raptors are going to give their pick, but Toronto is currently in the six slot and are continuing their free fall. The Siakam trade is definitely rebuilding rather than reloading. At this point, the Spurs have to hope for a Young trade so the Hawks can start playing catch-up.

Tbf I don't think anyone has illusions about the pick. Right now they're tied for 6th worst and appear categorically worse than Chicago, Atlanta, Golden State, and possibly Brooklyn, who are all just above them in the suck-rankings. Even if they hover in that range, though, they only have around a 34% chance of a top 4 pick. Even with the 6th worst record, they have around a 57% chance of dropping to 7 or worse (no chance of landing at 5).

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I feel like they're doing a soft reload with getting Quickley and trying for something with Siakam. The loss of Poeltl is really hurting. Regardless, the chances of the pick conveying are still in the 'likely' category. Still, I don't even mind losing it this year. The Raptors would have to fend us off for two more years at the 1-6 protection at pretty similar odds; they're not going to bottom out. My feeling is they'd rather just cough the pick up this year and move on.

[BackHome]

Again, folks are uber-confident that the Raptors are going to give their pick, but Toronto is currently in the six slot and are continuing their free fall. The Siakam trade is definitely rebuilding rather than reloading. At this point, the Spurs have to hope for a Young trade so the Hawks can start playing catch-up.

They lost Poodle for a couple of weeks so not having them is what is hurting them once he comes back I can see them make a push for play in

[TD 21]

Again, folks are uber-confident that the Raptors are going to give their pick, but Toronto is currently in the six slot and are continuing their free fall. The Siakam trade is definitely rebuilding rather than reloading. At this point, the Spurs have to hope for a Young trade so the Hawks can start playing catch-up.

Solution: Include it in the Murray proposal and we won't have to concern ourselves with it anymore.:stirpot:



I think it’s a good bet it conveys on records. ATL, MEM, BKN, and TOR are all within a game of each other. They are the next tranche after the Miserable 5. And the distance between them and the TOR tranche is currently about 6 games. Memphis is poised to tank now, and ATL could also change on a dime.


Toronto could look pretty decent with a Quickly, Mathurin, Barret, Barnes, Jakob line up.

They're not getting Mathurin (or Walker). They're supposedly getting Brown Jr., "other salaries" (aka players with minimal value) and 3 1sts.

[spurraider21]

supposedly the failure to include mathurin/walker is the reason theres no deal yet despite the reports

dont know who the hell from what team would leak the details of the trade framework if the deal was not imminent

[Leetonidas]

Masai always trying to squeeze blood from a stone :lol Siakams camp has put it out there he won't give any verbal agreement to resign with any team besides Toronto. Dude could essentially be a half year rental and he wants Mathurin and multiple picks in return? :lmao

Spurs gifting the Raps Kawhi on 2018 completely made this guy's career imo. Dude is a very overrated GM

[Mr. Body]

Siakam was likely looking for his fifth year on the extension by those comments, which is what a team he's traded to can offer. Apparently his agent's other big name is Nembhard on the Pacers. I think everyone expects he'd resign there.

I see from Toronto's POV that they need someone to soften the rebuild. I would send Jarace Walker and be very happy to get it done.

[scott]

It's been long speculated that Siakam will head to Philly this offseason, as they are a contender with the most cap space. Surely that must weigh on every potential suitors mind.

[Cardinal]

Siakam is gone. Say goodbye to the Raptors pick this year :(

[scott]

To Raptors: Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, 3 FRPs, Kira Lewis (from NOP)
To Pacers: Pascal Siakam
To Pelicans: ???

NOP saves $18MM and gets under the tax by participating in this deal

[scott]

If I were TOR, I would have rather insisted on Mathurin or Walker and one less FRP, but that's just me.

[LeBowen]

Siakam must've changed his mind and committed to an extension, otherwise Pacers ruined everything they were building.
Now they need a guard defender, Hield probably gets traded.

Even after this trade, Raptors will have a hard time breaking into top5 because worst teams are just that horrible.
But as already said, having that pick the next year would probably be even better for the Spurs.

[scott]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

[onechance87]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to fuck with them for stealing poeltl from us

[Mr. Body]

If I were TOR, I would have rather insisted on Mathurin or Walker and one less FRP, but that's just me.

That wasn't going to happen.

Id expect Toronto to shop Brown around. He'd be excellent for a contender.

[Mugen]

Like I said earlier in this thread, not sure why everybody was penciling in that Toronto pick when it was nowhere near a lock, even less so now with Siakam going out :lol

[Seventyniner]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

Do we know what protections are on those IND picks?

I'm wondering if there might be some deal the Spurs could make with the Raptors that would give the Raptors their own pick back this year in exchange for the 2026 IND pick with some sort of protection added, like top 4. It would be a worse pick but much more likely to convey.

[buttsR4rebounding]

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to fuck with them for stealing poeltl from us

Back away from the pipe dude. What the hell would we do with Poeltl right now? It was a good trade. Even if Toronto goes for a hard tank (which they are not) it will likely convey. I bet most people wouldn't write this crap if their real names were attached to it. Anonymity breeds stupidity.

[spurraider21]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.
the odds of them picking top 6 for 3 consecutive years is quite small. they already have a foundation piece in Barnes. theyre locked into productive players like barrett, poeltl, quickley. its not like its an entire roster reset

[spurraider21]

2026 pick going from Indy to Toronto is top 4 protected. pacers hedge in case siakam bails and they go to shit

[Bruno]

Quickley/Barrett/Brown/Barnes/Poeltl is still a quite good lineup. If they don't do other trades and if Poeltl came back quickly, I see them finishing 7th worst above Pistons, Wizards, Spurs, Hornets, Blazers and Grizzlies. In that case, Spurs will have a 68% odd of getting the pick.

[Seventyniner]

Even if the Raptors fall all the way to the 5th worst record, there is still a 36.1% chance the Spurs get the pick anyway. 56.6% chance if the Raptors finish with the 6th worst record.

I think it would be very hard for them to tank past any of the Spurs/Pistons/Wizards/Hornets.

[ginobilized]

I'd rather the Toronto pick convey in 2025, anyway. It's always a gamble, but, my bet is that this pick conveys and will yield something/someone very useful to the Spurs future.

[Mr. Body]

Keep an eye on the actual pick chances:

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Toronto probably stays in the 6 slot with Memphis balling out for pride. The Raptor's chances of landing at these picks are as follows:

#7 30.7%
#8 21.7%
#9 4.0%
#10 0.2%

Their chances of landing at 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all around 8-9% each. There is no chance, at the 6 spot, of receiving the #5 pick.

If they can't 'catch up' to the losses of SA, CHA, POR, DET, and WAS, then there is a 56.6% chance the Spurs still get the pick. If Memphis drops below them, the Spurs gain only 8.6% to that total. So, it is still likely.

Now, if it does not convey this year, then Toronto will have to do some deep tanking to keep protecting the pick for the next two years. They might do so to take a stab at Flagg or Ace.

It's not the greatest news, but there was always risk.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Keep an eye on the actual pick chances:

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Toronto probably stays in the 6 slot with Memphis balling out for pride. The Raptor's chances of landing at these picks are as follows:

#7 30.7%
#8 21.7%
#9 4.0%
#10 0.2%

Their chances of landing at 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all around 8-9% each. There is no chance, at the 6 spot, of receiving the #5 pick.

If they can't 'catch up' to the losses of SA, CHA, POR, DET, and WAS, then there is a 56.6% chance the Spurs still get the pick. If Memphis drops below them, the Spurs gain only 8.6% to that total. So, it is still likely.

Now, if it does not convey this year, then Toronto will have to do some deep tanking to keep protecting the pick for the next two years. They might do so to take a stab at Flagg or Ace.

It's not the greatest news, but there was always risk.

Thanks for sharing. I'm hoping they still aim for the play in as they are just one game out of it and maybe that will encourage more wins in the long run so we can improve our odds of getting their pick.

[onechance87]

Back away from the pipe dude. What the hell would we do with Poeltl right now? It was a good trade. Even if Toronto goes for a hard tank (which they are not) it will likely convey. I bet most people wouldn't write this crap if their real names were attached to it. Anonymity breeds stupidity.

bro are u stupid...torono gonna tank this year to make sure they get there pick and we dont get it the
next few years...Alot of the east have got so much better for the next few years...We gave a top center
away for free

[mo7888]

bro are u stupid...torono gonna tank this year to make sure they get there pick and we dont get it the
next few years...Alot of the east have got so much better for the next few years...We gave a top center
away for free

They can tank all they want, but there are 5 teams below them they can't out tank. 6 is their floor if they tank hard and then it's just up to the ping pong balls.

[onechance87]

Quickley/Barrett/Brown/Barnes/Poeltl is still a quite good lineup. If they don't do other trades and if Poeltl came back quickly, I see them finishing 7th worst above Pistons, Wizards, Spurs, Hornets, Blazers and Grizzlies. In that case, Spurs will have a 68% odd of getting the pick.

if one of them get a scratch on em...Toronto will sit them...They are going for
the tank

[tbdog]

Siakam must've changed his mind and committed to an extension, otherwise Pacers ruined everything they were building.
Now they need a guard defender, Hield probably gets traded.

Even after this trade, Raptors will have a hard time breaking into top5 because worst teams are just that horrible.
But as already said, having that pick the next year would probably be even better for the Spurs.

Ind would have said they will give the 5 year max. And his agent would have said that's the best you can get.

[BatManu20]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

[Mr. Body]

Those #5 and #6 pick slots are wild, pre-lottery. The fifth worst team only has a 2% chance of actually getting the fifth pick. The sixth worst tem ony has a 8% chance of getting the sixth pick.

[Mr. Body]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

It is literally more likely to convey than not and it's very unlikely to change in the opposite direction.

[onechance87]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

it will never convey....Cause they will suck or be average at best and have no chance of getting into the
playoffs the next few years with the rise of the east teams...wright needs to be fired asap for his
stupid gamble

[scott]

I'd rather the Toronto pick convey in 2025, anyway. It's always a gamble, but, my bet is that this pick conveys and will yield something/someone very useful to the Spurs future.

IMO, even though the 2024 draft appears weak, I still want the TOR pick to convey this year for a few reasons (below). I trade to view this at all times from the perspective of the value of the pick (not necessarily trade value, though that is also part of it). Your hope is that the picks in your portfolio maximize their potential value. Reasons why I want the pick to convey this year:



For basic pick management. If the TOR pick does not convey this year, the Spurs could have up to FIVE FRPs next year. That would diminish the value of those picks as trade pieces as opposing teams will know the Spurs MUST move off of them
Typically speaking, unless coupled with diminishing protections, every year a pick does not convey, it's odds of conveying decreases (even if only slightly), thus decreasing it's value. Think of the CHA pick. When we got it, the general thought was that there was a decent chance the Hornets would make the playoffs over the next 3 years. Now they've failed the first year, will fail again the second year, and you've got one shot left for them to make the playoffs. Even ignoring whatever estimations you might make about the Hornets' roster next year, you've only got one bullet left in that gun, so the perceived odds are lower
Certainty improves trade value. A pick that is definitely the #11 pick this year is worth more than a pick that is Top-6 protected for the next two years due to the uncertainty of the pick conveying. Improved trade value = improved overall value. Whether the Spurs make that pick this year or use it as a trade chip, I want the certainty.

Just my humble opinion.

[scott]

it will never convey....Cause they will suck or be average at best and have no chance of getting into the
playoffs the next few years with the rise of the east teams...wright needs to be fired asap for his
stupid gamble

lolwut

[Kevin]

So many of the picks the Spurs acquired aren't or wont convey. This is why pick hoarding is overrated. Hornets pick probably never conveys as a first and now there's a decent chance we'll have to wait on the Raps pick. The Bulls prolly tank next season too so good chance that pick wont convey anytime soon. Hawks will never full tank as long as the Spurs control the 2025-27 picks for those thirsting for Flagg and Boozer.

[onechance87]

lolwut

they are rebuilding and will not be that good for the few
years...And we own their pick the next few years so they will tank to get
there pick in order to help there rebuild.And obviously help there chances
at geting flagg or boozer...What dont u understand

[TD 21]

No brainer for the Pacers. Siakam is a good fit and they still have assets to further improve going forward.

:lmao At the Craptors, who held the league hostage for a year (but hey, at least their buddies in the national media could constantly mention them in podcasts/articles and on TV) and waited way too long to trade their overrated players, not getting a single premium asset for Siakam.

Including Anunoby, Van Vleet and Lowry, Quickley is the closest thing to one they received.

Three 1sts looks/sounds nice on the surface, but in reality they all project land 20ish or worse for a low end star at a premium position.

If this were the Spurs or many others, they'd be getting raked over the coals.

Anyone thinking Wright did anything less than yeoman's work to get a 50% or better chance at a top 7-10 pick for Poeltl (from a team inexplicably uninterested in tanking), is absurd. You do that without thinking, as opposed to settling for a White type package where you end up with the expected value of a replacement player at the 25th pick.

[CGD]

Supposedly the picks TOR are getting are:

2024 IND
2024 Worst of UTA/HOU/LAC/OKC
2026 IND

Interesting in that TOR will now have two FRPs before considering tanking hard enough to retain their own. Their 2024 draft could end up looking a lot like our 2022 draft, which would maybe signal an even harder tank in 2025 (tank for Flagg?), and potentially another hard tank in 2026 (tank for Boozer/AJ?).

Even though its a weak draft, we really want/need that TOR pick to convey this year. I'd honestly be more inclined to ship it to ATL in a deal for Murray (or any other trade) seeing what TOR is doing. That pick loses trade value if TOR starts going hard tank... and the value of it plummets if it doesn't convey this year and teams sense that TOR is going to enter a longer rebuild.

Classic example of the shock value of "3 FRPs!" but when you look closer its: the 18th pick in this shitty draft, a super late 2025 FRP, and probably another late teen/early twenties FRP in 2026. Then again he was unrestricted so there is that.

[BatManu20]

It is literally more likely to convey than not and it's very unlikely to change in the opposite direction.It is literally more likely to convey than not and it's very unlikely to change in the opposite direction.

It may very well convey. We'll see. They're currently projected at the #6 pick as we speak and are only 1 game ahead of the Hawks and Nets in the win column. They just lost their leading scorer in Siakim, and Bruce Brown isn't much of a scorer. I don't see them winning many games without Pascal tbh. The Grizzlies just lost Ja for the season and looked terrible before he came back, so that could work in our favor. I'm just not holding my breath on it. We'll see how the next couple months play out.

[RC_Drunkford]

I really want this pick to convert this year for the simple fact that we could draft a PG and a 3-and-D wing. Risacher and one of Dillingham/Topic would be a great draft. I also think there's a good chance the pick converts, but it's gon be close. Gotta hope the Raptors start winning more games once Poeltl comes back.

[mo7888]

lolwut

We have trolls....at least, I hope he's trolling...

[Mr. Body]

[QUOTE=Mr. Body;11015049]It is literally more likely to convey than not and it's very unlikely to change in the opposite direction.[/QUOTE

It may very well convey. We'll see. They're currently projected at the #6 pick as we speak and are only 1 game ahead of the Hawks and Nets in the win column. They just lost their leading scorer in Siakim, and Bruce Brown isn't much of a scorer. I don't see them winning many games without Pascal tbh. The Grizzlies just lost Ja for the season and looked terrible before he came back, so that could work in our favor. I'm just not holding my breath on it. We'll see how the next couple months play out.

I laid out the odds some posts above this one. The Rap are at about 57% chance to give it to us. Memphis is playing above their heads and that will likely change.

If they play better than the Grizz, and I think they will, the Spurs get another 8.6% of getting the pick. As of now, they are only one or two wins off the pace of Brooklyn, GSW, Atlanta, with other teams only three wins better.

I think Toronto will not go into shut down tank. The young players will want to play hard. The two picks from Indiana this draft seem to convey a desire, or even a need, to get this pick exchange done this year and they may expect it. They have cap room and young players and a full tank next year may not be what anyone wants.

[Mugen]

It may very well convey. We'll see. They're currently projected at the #6 pick as we speak and are only 1 game ahead of the Hawks and Nets in the win column. They just lost their leading scorer in Siakim, and Bruce Brown isn't much of a scorer. I don't see them winning many games without Pascal tbh. The Grizzlies just lost Ja for the season and looked terrible before he came back, so that could work in our favor. I'm just not holding my breath on it. We'll see how the next couple months play out.

Bruce Brown is going to be rerouted in another trade IMO. I think they need to do so in order to maximize their cap space this offseason.

Memphis is hammered by injuries obviously and i think the early GG games are fluke-ish but I don't think it's a lock that they're gonna be worse than Toronto. They're well coached and I don't think they'll actively try to lose games.

[CGD]

So they turned OG, Pasqual, and Precious into:

Quickly
Barrett
Brown
3 FRPs in the 20s
DET 24 SRP

Not terrible under the circumstances, but they really should have moved them last year.

[Mr. Body]

So... I think the Spurs will end around two in three chance to get the pick.

[onechance87]

We have trolls....at least, I hope he's trolling...

bro...Do u think they are contenders in the east or something in the next few years..
Unless they get a superstar free agent this summer,They will suck and there goal
will be to try get flagg or boozer

[spurraider21]

I really want this pick to convert this year for the simple fact that we could draft a PG and a 3-and-D wing. Risacher and one of Dillingham/Topic would be a great draft. I also think there's a good chance the pick converts, but it's gon be close. Gotta hope the Raptors start winning more games once Poeltl comes back.
i def want the pick to convey this year, because if it does, it looks very likely to be a top 10 or so pick.

plus theres the really weird scenario where the charlotte pick, toronto pick, chicago pick (and of course, atlanta pick) all convey at the same time in 2025

[Mr. Body]

Bruce Brown is going to be rerouted in another trade IMO. I think they need to do so in order to maximize their cap space this offseason.

Memphis is hammered by injuries obviously and i think the early GG games are fluke-ish but I don't think it's a lock that they're gonna be worse than Toronto. They're well coached and I don't think they'll actively try to lose games.

IMO they made the trade this early to give time to reroute Brown. He should net them something fairly good.

[scott]

bro...Do u think they are contenders in the east or something in the next few years..
Unless they get a superstar free agent this summer,They will suck and there goal
will be to try get flagg or boozer

Here's the thing: the Raptors need not be a "contender" for the pick to convey, which is explained in pretty clear language in the rest of this thread. Step back off that ledge, my friend.

[onechance87]

Here's the thing: the Raptors need not be a "contender" for the pick to convey, which is explained in pretty clear language in the rest of this thread. Step back off that ledge, my friend.

yea...Like there gonna stall there rebuild and let us have there pick...That makes sense...
They were aiming to be contenders in the east when they traded there pick....Shit went south,Now they
are trading players for picks and to lose...Its obviously there gonna tank and try to keep there pick

[mo7888]

bro...Do u think they are contenders in the east or something in the next few years..
Unless they get a superstar free agent this summer,They will suck and there goal
will be to try get flagg or boozer

Bless your heart...

[onechance87]

Bless your heart...

i see what raptors doing,Not fooling me bro

[mo7888]

i see what raptors doing,Not fooling me bro

You still don't get it.... it doesn't matter what Toronto does...the teams below them are worse and tanking harder and better...

[exstatic]

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to fuck with them for stealing poeltl from us

Lighten up, Francis.

[baseline bum]

Siakam is gone. Say goodbye to the Raptors pick this year :(

It's a shitty draft anyways when Topic, Buzelis, Collier, Holland, Castle, etc have all looked pretty disappointing so no way Dillingham would last to 7. Won't be heartbroken if it rolls over to a top 6 protected 25 pick instead or if they trade it for Murray or some other decent vet.

[Ignazzz]

Guys. Please remember James Harden Trade.
Broo Nets pick is goin to Rockets. So no help from Nets in our case.

[spurraider21]

It's a shitty draft anyways when Topic, Buzelis, Collier, Holland, Castle, etc have all looked pretty disappointing so no way Dillingham would last to 7. Won't be heartbroken if it rolls over to a top 6 protected 25 pick instead or if they trade it for Murray or some other decent vet.
i really dont want it to convey in 2025 tbh :lol...

[baseline bum]

it will never convey....Cause they will suck or be average at best and have no chance of getting into the
playoffs the next few years with the rise of the east teams...wright needs to be fired asap for his
stupid gamble

It's only top 6 protected in 25 and 26 also. Between Barnes and Quickley they have too much talent to not pick 7 or higher at some point in the next three years.

[baseline bum]

i really dont want it to convey in 2025 tbh :lol...

If we still had Chip I'd be all-in on taking Castle with a mid to late lottery pick after the way he fixed Kawhi's shot and made Tony's into a weapon too. Without him though can't say I'm too excited about who is going to be available in that range this year.

[spurraider21]

If we still had Chip I'd be all-in on taking Castle with a mid to late lottery pick after the way he fixed Kawhi's shot and made Tony's into a weapon too. Without him though can't say I'm too excited about who is going to be available in that range this year.
Sheppard? lol

[rascal]

Expect Toronto to tank and try to get into the top 5.

[exstatic]

Even if the Raptors fall all the way to the 5th worst record, there is still a 36.1% chance the Spurs get the pick anyway. 56.6% chance if the Raptors finish with the 6th worst record.

I think it would be very hard for them to tank past any of the Spurs/Pistons/Wizards/Hornets.

They’re closer to 11th than 5th.

[baseline bum]

Sheppard? lol

You think he'll be there 7 to 11?

[exstatic]

if one of them get a scratch on em...Toronto will sit them...They are going for
the tank

It doesn’t matter. You can’t out tank teams that have been on the tank since October. ALL of those teams are sitting players for a hangnail.

[exstatic]

Been saying all season that pick is unlikely to convey because they were likely to trade Siakim by the deadline and eventually tank. This was a pretty easy call tbh. Makes no sense for them to tread around the 11th Seed in the East.

They’re not getting into the top 5.

[exstatic]

So many of the picks the Spurs acquired aren't or wont convey. This is why pick hoarding is overrated. Hornets pick probably never conveys as a first and now there's a decent chance we'll have to wait on the Raps pick. The Bulls prolly tank next season too so good chance that pick wont convey anytime soon. Hawks will never full tank as long as the Spurs control the 2025-27 picks for those thirsting for Flagg and Boozer.

We haven’t actually had one not convey yet. The one most like to go to SRPs is the CHA pick, which was more or less a throw in on top of the Atlanta treasure. The next most likely to not convey is the CHI pick, which was obtained in a trade of an unrestricted FA, when in all likelihood, we should get nothing.

[spurraider21]

You think he'll be there 7 to 11?
pretty certain, yeah. the better question is if he's worthy of it

i just brought him up as somebody with nba ready shooting

[SpursBills]

I have a hard time thinking that Toronto is finishing in the bottom 6 for 3 years in a row with IQ and an improving Scottie Barnes. Even if the pick doesn't convey this year, I have to think with "generational talent" Cooper flagg available in 2025 there are going to be teams tanking even more aggressively next year.

[exstatic]

bro...Do u think they are contenders in the east or something in the next few years..
Unless they get a superstar free agent this summer,They will suck and there goal
will be to try get flagg or boozer

Their BEST chance at Flagg or Boozer is to convey the pick this year. With a lottery pick on board, they will suck LESS next year, hurting their chances at Flagg. If they get a non Flagg lottery pick in 2025, it hurts their chances at Boozer. Winning this year hurts their chances down the road.

[rascal]

They can tank all they want, but there are 5 teams below them they can't out tank. 6 is their floor if they tank hard and then it's just up to the ping pong balls.

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

[exstatic]

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

Nope.

[rascal]

They’re closer to 11th than 5th.

Still a long way to go in the season. Not out of the possibility they try to keep their pick this year and tank into the bottom 5.

[SpursBills]

wright needs to be fired....And we need to sign iq to fuck with them for stealing poeltl from us

This has to be a joke right? You can blame Wright for a lot of things, but that Poeltl trade was absolutely the right move at that time. Even if the spurs get unlucky and the pick never conveys it doesn't mean it was a bad decision. What was your preferred outcome, to have the Spurs keep Poeltl, finish with like the 6th worst record, and roll into this season with Tre, Vassell, Keldon, Poeltl, and...Taylor Hendricks or something?

[spurraider21]

if toronto lands at #5, that still leaves a ~36% chance of the pick conveying

[rascal]

We haven’t actually had one not convey yet. The one most like to go to SRPs is the CHA pick, which was more or less a throw in on top of the Atlanta treasure. The next most likely to not convey is the CHI pick, which was obtained in a trade of an unrestricted FA, when in all likelihood, we should get nothing.

Last year you were sure the Charlotte pick was going to convey this year because they can't tank with Ball on the team and Miller and Williams and Bridges coming back.


You were wrong then as you're wrong again now.

[rascal]

if toronto lands at #5, that still leaves a ~36% chance of the pick conveying

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

[spurraider21]

with both the spurs placement and the raptors protection coming into play, this might be one of the more exciting and impactful draft lotteries in recent spurs memory tbh

[scott]

We haven’t actually had one not convey yet. The one most like to go to SRPs is the CHA pick, which was more or less a throw in on top of the Atlanta treasure. The next most likely to not convey is the CHI pick, which was obtained in a trade of an unrestricted FA, when in all likelihood, we should get nothing.

And not to be forgotten, we've already effectively gotten one other FRP (which we became Malaki Branham) for that DeRozan deal to CHI (via Thad Young to TOR). With that said, we still want that CHI pick to convey... I'd say it's still about 60-65% likely to convey at this point.

[spurraider21]

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.
oh fuck, i hadnt realized that 36% was less than 50%

[Mugen]

It's a shitty draft anyways when Topic, Buzelis, Collier, Holland, Castle, etc have all looked pretty disappointing so no way Dillingham would last to 7. Won't be heartbroken if it rolls over to a top 6 protected 25 pick instead or if they trade it for Murray or some other decent vet.

2024 7-9thpick = 2025 late lottery - late teens tbh.

Not the end of the world if we don't get it this year but was just funny to see everybody pencil it in already :lol

I'd try to move the pick ASAP if it doesn't convey this year tbh, let somebody else worry about it while getting Wemby some much needed, immediate help for next season.

[Mr. Body]

Nope.

If Shaeden finally drops the facade and turns into Michael Jordan then the Blazers are deffo winning the championship.

[scott]

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

If Portland wants to tank, no one will catch them. Portland are undisputed tank champions of the world.

[Mugen]

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

You're giving Chauncey way too much credit tbh. He might be the 2nd or 3rd worst coach in the league easily :lol

[onechance87]

Their BEST chance at Flagg or Boozer is to convey the pick this year. With a lottery pick on board, they will suck LESS next year, hurting their chances at Flagg. If they get a non Flagg lottery pick in 2025, it hurts their chances at Boozer. Winning this year hurts their chances down the road.

Wrong....We got wemby and are worst then last year

[duncan2150]

Expect Toronto to tank and try to get into the top 5.

The best they can be is six imo, nearly impossible for them to reach portland.

[onechance87]

The best they can be is six imo, nearly impossible for them to reach portland.

hornets got ball back...Think they will win a lil more

[SpursBills]

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

If Portland finishes with the 4th worst record in the league 3 years in a row, there is still a 47% chance that their pick conveys. If they finish with the 4th worst record 2 years and the 5th worst record for 1 year, there's a 58% chance that their pick conveys. Even if they finish with the 3rd worst record 3 years in a row, there is a 20% chance that the pick conveys. If you wanted to wager money right now that the pick doesn't convey over the next 3 years, I am happy to take you up on this as I think that the odds favor the pick conveying over the next 3 years.

[spurraider21]

hornets got ball back...Think they will win a lil more
bizarro world scenario where hornets rampage up the standings, secure a play-in spot, make the playoffs, and have their pick convey while the raptors tank into a top 6 pick

[mo7888]

Don't count on that. Portland can slide above them if Toronto tanks hard.

Not gonna happen...and Portland will move Brogdon

[twodeep]

While Toronto just traded Siakam to the Pacers that increase their chance of them having a top 6 pick now.

[rascal]

If Portland finishes with the 4th worst record in the league 3 years in a row, there is still a 47% chance that their pick conveys. If they finish with the 4th worst record 2 years and the 5th worst record for 1 year, there's a 58% chance that their pick conveys. Even if they finish with the 3rd worst record 3 years in a row, there is a 20% chance that the pick conveys. If you wanted to wager money right now that the pick doesn't convey over the next 3 years, I am happy to take you up on this as I think that the odds favor the pick conveying over the next 3 years.

I would take the side that the pick will convey over the next three years.

[rascal]

Not gonna happen...and Portland will move Brogdon

Portland is going to gain a game on Toronto tonight.

[mo7888]

Portland is going to gain a game on Toronto tonight.

Probably, and it still won't matter.

[TXstbobcat]

Raptors putting the Ike Turner beatdown on Miami tonight.

[mo7888]

Probably, and it still won't matter.

Looks like we are both wrong on that game..

[SpursBills]

I would take the side that the pick will convey over the next three years.

good, so you acknowledge that it’s a lot more likely the pick conveys - so no need to complain about the pick when the odds are it’ll convey one way or another

[rascal]

good, so you acknowledge that it’s a lot more likely the pick conveys - so no need to complain about the pick when the odds are it’ll convey one way or another

Better it conveys in the top ten this year. No idea where that pick will be next year or the year after.

[scott]

Raptors putting the Ike Turner beatdown on Miami tonight.

Siakam was holding the Raptors back the whole time. Now we are getting the 30th pick after Toronto runs the table.

[rascal]

Siakam was holding the Raptors back the whole time. Now we are getting the 30th pick after Toronto runs the table.

Their front office hasn't started their tank yet. Still half the season to go.

[Frenchfred]

Siakam was holding the Raptors back the whole time. Now we are getting the 30th pick after Toronto runs the table.

they actually don't have a bad starting 5, I can see them winning several games and finishing in the play-in

[Mr. Body]

Crushed Miami. They're going to play hard and win enough games to possibly tick up the rankings or at least stay put. Again I think the FO is good to let this pick go and look to cap space and their later picks this summer.

[exstatic]

Wrong....We got wemby and are worst then last year

[on purpose]

[spurraider21]

[on purpose]
:lmao as if that makes it better

[BackHome]

We were all happy with the end result last draft. Lol. As I said after we got the number 1 pick in the draft - WHEN YOUR LUCKY KEEP ROLLING THE DICE. :flag:

[CorrectCrusader]

Back away from the pipe dude. What the hell would we do with Poeltl right now? It was a good trade. Even if Toronto goes for a hard tank (which they are not) it will likely convey. I bet most people wouldn't write this crap if their real names were attached to it. Anonymity breeds stupidity.

Lol have you ever been outside?
Most people are just dumb

[exstatic]

Yes but the odds at 5 will favor Toronto keeping the pick. Only 5 games on the win column with Portland with still over 30 game left. Plenty of time for Portland to pass them if they start sitting players.

I’ll say this for like the tenth time: TORONTO IS CLOSER TO #11 than #5.

[rascal]

I’ll say this for like the tenth time: TORONTO IS CLOSER TO #11 than #5.

We will see by the end of the year. Still a half season to go and they are going to want that top 10 pick.

[exstatic]

We will see by the end of the year. Still a half season to go and they are going to want that top 10 pick.

They just beat Miami by 24 points, and organization sources have said they aren’t tanking. I’m much more worried about them dropping to 10 or 11 than drawing into the top 6 in the lottery.

[onechance87]

portland sob just lose fckers

[Ditty]

The Nets have been sucking. Would not be surprised if they continue drop in standings and give the Rockets a good pick. Especially if they trade away Bridges.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Last year you were sure the Charlotte pick was going to convey this year because they can't tank with Ball on the team and Miller and Williams and Bridges coming back.


You were wrong then as you're wrong again now.

To be fair Charlotte has played very few games with both players because of Ball's injury. They actually were playing quite well before he got injured after Bridges came back.

[buttsR4rebounding]

They just beat Miami by 24 points, and organization sources have said they aren’t tanking. I’m much more worried about them dropping to 10 or 11 than drawing into the top 6 in the lottery.

I have to agree with Ex on this.

[Cabrito]

They are about to move into the 8th slot soon because the Nets are not playing well at all.

[rascal]

To be fair Charlotte has played very few games with both players because of Ball's injury. They actually were playing quite well before he got injured after Bridges came back.

They weren't playing well with Ball. They were 5-10 before he went out with an injury. They are 0-3 since he's come back, all blowout losses including one to the Spurs.
They only had one good win against Boston in OT and a two game win streak beating Wash by 3 after the Boston win.
They were never going to be a playoff team this year.

[Mr. Body]

Lamello Ball doesn't win basketball games. The real floor-raiser for Charlotte is Mark Williams.

[duncan2150]

Lamello Ball doesn't win basketball games. The real floor-raiser for Charlotte is Mark Williams.

He's clearly a game changer for them, remember last year when he was injured and when he was with the team.

And i agree that having both Williams and Ball will change this team but even with that i don't see them winning a lot of games.

[spurraider21]

He's clearly a game changer for them, remember last year when he was injured and when he was with the team.

And i agree that having both Williams and Ball will change this team but even with that i don't see them winning a lot of games.
im pretty sure charlotte has had a total of 4 games with their top 6 guys suited up

Ball/Rozier/Miller/Bridges/Williams and Hayward

[Splits]

Like there gonna stall there rebuild and let us have there pick

...Its obviously there gonna tank and try to keep there pick

lmao they're their their their

[Splits]

with both the spurs placement and the raptors protection coming into play, this might be one of the more exciting and impactful draft lotteries in recent spurs memory tbh

yeah, last year was so boring and inconsequential

[spurraider21]

1748130969100358014

[mo7888]

1748130969100358014

That's tough....

[Rubberducky]

That is scary. I hope the NBA is doing what they can to help him get treated.

[Chinook]

If this situation is like Bosh's, it's more sad than scary. Basically Koloko will be fine so long as he takes his medication, but the meds will make it impossible for a doc to sign off on him playing a contact sport again. Obviously, that sucks, and unlike Bosh, Christian isn't an end-of-career mega-millionaire who's already won rings. But considering a coach just died young, at least they caught this in time. Hopefully Toronto offers him a coaching/scouting job or otherwise helps him transition to a non-playing career.

[onechance87]

more likely we gonna lose raptors pick...Toronto keeps losing and traded their best players.And portland and memphis
and charlote keep fighting to win games

[exstatic]

more likely we gonna lose raptors pick...Toronto keeps losing and traded their best players.And portland and memphis
and charlote keep fighting to win games

Again, Toronto is closer to 11th place than 5th

[mystargtr34]

Yeah I’m not worried about the pick I still think Raps finish in the 7-11 range for worst record.

The terrible 5 are a lock.

Memphis will lose a lot and end up with the 6th worst record.

Then you have Atlanta, Brooklyn, Chicago, free falling Magic that are on about the same level as the Raptors. Anywhere from 7-11 is where the pick ends up imo.

[DPG21920]

Memphis is the key. They’ve been much better than expected even with injuries lately. Need them to lose like 7-8 of next 10 or something

[BacktoBasics]

Yeah I’m not worried about the pick I still think Raps finish in the 7-11 range for worst record.

The terrible 5 are a lock.

Memphis will lose a lot and end up with the 6th worst record.

Then you have Atlanta, Brooklyn, Chicago, free falling Magic that are on about the same level as the Raptors. Anywhere from 7-11 is where the pick ends up imo.

I don’t see Orlando as free falling. They’re a young team. Wouldn’t be surprised if they make a move or two at the deadline. They got a playoff caliber team.

[Mr. Body]

Again, it depends on what you mean by 'likely' to not convey.

We have a full half the season to go but the worst five seem pretty set. I suppose it depends - Portland is winning now that Sharpe and Scoot aren't playing much or at all. Memphis has a good coach and is playing off adrenaline. Those won't last.

Even with the 6th worst record, Toronto would be more than half likely to convey.

The current 7th worst record, they are about a two out of three chance to convey.

If they climb up the rankings, they only lose the chance at the 6 and then 6/7 and then 6/7/8, and so on, spots while only incrementally adding percentage points to the chances to convey.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

tbh, with this draft and its weakness, it's not the worst thing in the world to lose the pick to future years

[DPG21920]

Bird in the hand. I want that guaranteed lottery pick this year. Lots SA can do with it and its pretty important IMO, but ya, not end of world IF it gets pushed to next year.

[mo7888]

Bird in the hand. I want that guaranteed lottery pick this year. Lots SA can do with it and its pretty important IMO, but ya, not end of world IF it gets pushed to next year.

Even though next years draft is better, I'd prefer it conveys thos uear as well for two reasons: 1) it's likely to be a top 10 pick this year and could a good bit worse next year and 2) it'd be a known commodity if we decide to make a trade this summer and need to use it.

[Mr. Body]

Gaming this out:

Spurs automatically start with two picks in the 2025 draft, their own and Atlanta, with a good chance both will be lottery picks.

Chicago currently is 11th worst record in the NBA hovering just under .500 at 20-23, presently in the play-in. They will lose DDR this summer. Lonzo Ball may come back. Otherwise, significant questions hover over them. The 2025 pick is protected 1-10 next year (following two years, 1-8).

Toronto's pick, if it does not convey, means they will have a top 6 pick added to theri roster along with roster changes this summer with significant cap room opening up. They have a budding star in Barnes and some good pieces. It's hard to imagine they will fall below 6 in the next two years.

Ergo...

If Toronto DOESN'T convey this year, I think it does next. AND, there's a strong chance the Bulls' pick does not convey next year.

Optimal situation is two picks with SAS/TOR this year, two picks SAS/ATL in 2025, two picks SAS/CHI in 2026 (with ATL swap considered)

BUT there's a very good chance of having SAS ONLY this year, three picks SAS/ATL/TOR in 2025, and SAS/CHI in 2026.

There's a non-negligible chance at ONE pick this year SAS, FOUR picks next year SAS/ATL/TOR/CHI and one pick in 2026. That 2025 could be crazy.

[scott]

Gaming this out:

Spurs automatically start with two picks in the 2025 draft, their own and Atlanta, with a good chance both will be lottery picks.

Chicago currently is 11th worst record in the NBA hovering just under .500 at 20-23, presently in the play-in. They will lose DDR this summer. Lonzo Ball may come back. Otherwise, significant questions hover over them. The 2025 pick is protected 1-10 next year (following two years, 1-8).

Toronto's pick, if it does not convey, means they will have a top 6 pick added to theri roster along with roster changes this summer with significant cap room opening up. They have a budding star in Barnes and some good pieces. It's hard to imagine they will fall below 6 in the next two years.

Ergo...

If Toronto DOESN'T convey this year, I think it does next. AND, there's a strong chance the Bulls' pick does not convey next year.

Optimal situation is two picks with SAS/TOR this year, two picks SAS/ATL in 2025, two picks SAS/CHI in 2026 (with ATL swap considered)

BUT there's a very good chance of having SAS ONLY this year, three picks SAS/ATL/TOR in 2025, and SAS/CHI in 2026.

There's a non-negligible chance at ONE pick this year SAS, FOUR picks next year SAS/ATL/TOR/CHI and one pick in 2026. That 2025 could be crazy.

You forgot the other, even less probable but still possible, scenario where we end up with:

-One pick in 2024 (SAS)
-Five picks in 2025 (SAS, ATL, TOR, CHI, CHA)
-One pick in 2026 (Best of SAS/ATL)

[Mr. Body]

Two picks in 2024:

There are about 6-8 players I'm interested in right now. Otherwise, in the lottery range, I see a lot of dross. Obviously my powers of evaluation are shaky at best and the team will have other ideas. If we DO have two picks, it's sweet to have them all in the 1-9 range because I think things get shitty after that. Now, the question is whether those are actually great prospects or whether we're/I'm really pushing it. But it's highly likely two of those preferences will be availalbe with first and Toronto's.

[Mr. Body]

Got beat hard by Memphis at home.

[rascal]

Got beat hard by Memphis at home.

Currently 6th and they haven't decided to tank yet by sitting players.

[onechance87]

I’ll say this for like the tenth time: TORONTO IS CLOSER TO #11 than #5.

bro i think ur confused whats happening

[onechance87]

Currently 6th and they haven't decided to tank yet by sitting players.

havent decided yet?They traded away their top players,They want their pick to help rebuild for
the next few years.

[rascal]

havent decided yet?They traded away their top players,They want their pick to help rebuild for
the next few years.

We will know they are tanking when players are sitting. They haven't done that yet but when they do they will slide quickly down and end up 5th.

The Spurs can still get lucky and end up with the pick at 7 but it's to Toronto's best interest to not give the spurs a top 10 pick if they are close to 5th worst.
5th worst gives Toronto the higher odds to keep the pick so that would be their target, 5th worst.

[Cabrito]

It’s ok if we don’t get the pick in the upcoming draft. How many more 19 year olds do we need?

[Mr. Body]

Currently 6th and they haven't decided to tank yet by sitting players.

I don't know why I have to say this but you don't have to sit players to tank.

Also it doesn't matter if they tank if they just outright suck.

[rascal]

I don't know why I have to say this but you don't have to sit players to tank.

Also it doesn't matter if they tank if they just outright suck.

We saw last year teams tanking by sitting out players. Portland was a great example.

Toronto can easily tank away the season and fall to 5th if they want that draft pick. This year fewer teams are tanking with no Wemby in this year's draft.

[Ditty]

6-9 picks are going to be interesting. Toronto does have a pretty weak SOS, so I think they will be fine once they get Poeltl back. They still play Brooklyn 3 times also

If Murray gets traded, I think Hawks start to tank as this will be the last season they can do it. They have a pretty tough SOS also. I can see them dropping to the 6th worst record.

I think the Warriors start to pick it up also that they won't be a threat.

I see it being:
6 - ATL
7 - TOR
8 - BKY
9 - MEM

[Seventyniner]

We saw last year teams tanking by sitting out players. Portland was a great example.

Toronto can easily tank away the season and fall to 5th if they want that draft pick. This year fewer teams are tanking with no Wemby in this year's draft.

A higher draft pick is still better than a lower one even with no Wemby in the draft. The Raps aren't going to be the only team trying to tank.

[exstatic]

A higher draft pick is still better than a lower one even with no Wemby in the draft. The Raps aren't going to be the only team trying to tank.

This is why the closeness of the pick to conveying/not conveying doesn’t bother me this year. I’d rather risk the non-convey for a shot at #7 this year, even in a supposed thin draft, than get #15 or #20 in a later supposed good draft. Toronto never seems to stay down for long. They picked Scotty at #4 overall, and were the 6 seed in the EC the next season.

I really see ATL going for the tank, since this is the last pick of their own that they control until 2028, especially if they have trouble moving their guards for the return that they want. This would present another obstacle to TOR.

[Mr. Body]

The last two drafts were no-brainers, imo, as far as the lottery went. Obviously Wembanyama was the no-braineriest of all time, but I felt like Sochan was very clearly a no-brainer (as borne out - only Jaylin Williams rivals him in regards to who was on the board, although I like other players like Duren).

Kind of objectively fascinating to see what happens this year, as we have one or two high picks and no one is 'obvious.'

May be some sour grapes going on, but I would be okay with losing out on the Toronto pick this year... so long as it conveys the next two years.

Pros to Keeping: If we get two picks this year, we get to start developing two players immediately. We learn better what works. We fill more roles with players, which can help the team as a whole. It'll be fun mapping out two opportunities.

Cons to Keeping: That second pick, especially, looks dodgy. Do we really want to pick Matas Buzelis with a #7 or 8 pick? Our first pick looks iffy enough and it's likely we'll get stuck on a higher salary scale for a Risacher-type who is only, at best, 'very good.'

Pros to Losing the Pick: Guessing we get it next year, when we can bundle picks for flexibility, trades, or possibly going for players in a hopefully better draft. Potentially landing both the SAS and ATL picks, but also TOR and CHI, all in the lottery. That's crazy.

Cons to Losing the Pick: We cannot possibly bring on four rookies. Having too many picks drives their value down.

[scott]

If it doesn't convey, we definitely need to try to move it in the summer. At that point the range of outcomes will be:

1) the pick conveys in '25 and we will have somewhere between 3 and 5 FRPs. There is a case to be made that even two might be more than we really want at that point (but we can always decide that later). I certainly don't want 3 picks, let alone 4 or 5. Teams will know this and the Spurs will lack leverage.

2) the pick doesn't convey in '25 and you are left with one more shot at it conveying in '26, which is risky. Even if it did convey in '26, there could still be a scenario where we have 3 picks that year (Best of SA/ATL, CHI, TOR). Both of these things combine to mean that the pick loses considerable trade value going into 2026 as the risk of non-conveyance will be higher and the Spurs will potentially lack leverage. The pick could regain some value towards the '26 deadline if TOR is clearly established itself in a position where the pick is likely to convey (removal of uncertainty for the acquiring team).

A good way to think of picks is to assign it a quantitative value to the pick. It doesn't really matter where you start at, but just keep in mind that ever year a pick does not convey, the value goes down because the odds of the pick conveying are reduced* (unless the protections are structured in a way where the odds of conveyance become more likely - then the calculus becomes a little trickier because it depends on the structure).

*The best illustration of this is to think of flipping a coin. If you have five opportunities to flip the coin, and you only need to get heads once, you have a 97% chance of that happening. But if the first flip is tails, you now only have a 94% chance of landing on heads at least once in the next 4 tries. When flip 4 lands on tails, you now only have an 88% chance. When flip 3 lands tails, you now only have a 75% chance. And if flip 4 is tails, you are now down to a 50/50 chance on your last flip.

The same thing happens each time the pick does not convey, all else equal. Odds of success = 1 - (odds of individual failure ^ n)

[Kevin]

If it doesn't convey, we definitely need to try to move it in the summer. At that point the range of outcomes will be:

1) the pick conveys in '25 and we will have somewhere between 3 and 5 FRPs. There is a case to be made that even two might be more than we really want at that point (but we can always decide that later). I certainly don't want 3 picks, let alone 4 or 5. Teams will know this and the Spurs will lack leverage.

2) the pick doesn't convey in '25 and you are left with one more shot at it conveying in '26, which is risky. Even if it did convey in '26, there could still be a scenario where we have 3 picks that year (Best of SA/ATL, CHI, TOR). Both of these things combine to mean that the pick loses considerable trade value going into 2026 as the risk of non-conveyance will be higher and the Spurs will potentially lack leverage. The pick could regain some value towards the '26 deadline if TOR is clearly established itself in a position where the pick is likely to convey (removal of uncertainty for the acquiring team).

A good way to think of picks is to assign it a quantitative value to the pick. It doesn't really matter where you start at, but just keep in mind that ever year a pick does not convey, the value goes down because the odds of the pick conveying are reduced* (unless the protections are structured in a way where the odds of conveyance become more likely - then the calculus becomes a little trickier because it depends on the structure).

*The best illustration of this is to think of flipping a coin. If you have five opportunities to flip the coin, and you only need to get heads once, you have a 97% chance of that happening. But if the first flip is tails, you now only have a 94% chance of landing on heads at least once in the next 4 tries. When flip 4 lands on tails, you now only have an 88% chance. When flip 3 lands tails, you now only have a 75% chance. And if flip 4 is tails, you are now down to a 50/50 chance on your last flip.

The same thing happens each time the pick does not convey, all else equal. Odds of success = 1 - (odds of individual failure ^ n)

Hornets pick wont convey and I don't think the Bulls pick will convey if DMR leaves which he probably will.

This is why picks are over valued. Too many picks and you have to auction them off or its years of waiting for conveyance.

[Mr. Body]

Chicago's goes 1-8/1-8 for the two years following 2025. They probably should just bottom out and tear it mostly down. The Zach LaVine salary is pretty nasty. They should probably get something good for Caruso, Vucevic might get something. Otherwise they're not in horrible shape salary-cap wise. Not sure what their ownership wants to do, but I'd go deep into the dank if I were them. All they owe is their pick to us, which they can protect via tank, and nothing else.

[Mr. Body]

Does suck to lose the Chicago pick, but it was a throw-in for DDR, who we were losing anyway. It was worth a shot.

[Atl Spur]

Does suck to lose the Chicago pick, but it was a throw-in for DDR, who we were losing anyway. It was worth a shot.

Lose? We lost the Chicago pick?

[Mr. Body]

Lose? We lost the Chicago pick?

Conditional is suggested by previous post.

[exstatic]

Chicago's goes 1-8/1-8 for the two years following 2025. They probably should just bottom out and tear it mostly down. The Zach LaVine salary is pretty nasty. They should probably get something good for Caruso, Vucevic might get something. Otherwise they're not in horrible shape salary-cap wise. Not sure what their ownership wants to do, but I'd go deep into the dank if I were them. All they owe is their pick to us, which they can protect via tank, and nothing else.

Yeah,but since the pick doesn’t even go on the clock until 2025, they’d have to tank for four years.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah,but since the pick doesn’t even go on the clock until 2025, they’d have to tank for four years.

Well, if they're tanking this year instead of just sucking. Each year it becomes incrementally easier to tank the full yard instead of thinking about it from the start: going into season 25 tearing it down and getting a good pick etc., season 26 looking how they are, but sucking, so just tanking again, season 27 same thing and seeing they just don't have it, so going into the tank again.

No one probably sets about to tank for three years but it just becomes the best solution over time.

[Mugen]

Would be legit hilarious if none of the protected picks that Wright traded for conveyed :lol

[Mr. Body]

Would be legit hilarious if none of the protected picks that Wright traded for conveyed :lol

That's the risk, really.

The Charlotte pick was thrown into the Atlanta trade for Dejounte. It was kind of icing on the cake. Charlotte wasn't great then and has gotten worse by firing a decent coach because he wasn't playing Kai Jones and James Bouknight enough (!). It was always 1-14 protected so at most was going to be a little bit of sweetness. At worst they'll give us two SNPs that will be in the 31-40 range.

The Bulls pick was outright squeeze for facilitating the move of DDR to Chicago out of nothing. We weren't going to resign him anyway, got to be gentlemen for getting him to a preferred destination, and got assets just the same. It hasn't even started to convey and is at 1-10, 1-8, 1-8. We may not even want it to convey next year anyway and the Bulls are in a spot where they may have to decide whether they want to tank for three full years just to hide the pick from us.

The Raptors pick was for a good center and if that doesn't convey, yeah, it's not great. But we didn't want to keep him anyway for various reasons even pre-Wemby. As it stands, it's still more than likely to convey this year. Even if it doesn't, they'll have to do some hardcore tanking to be absolutely certain it doesn't get to us. They'd have to do that while keeping young players like Barnes and Quickley happy.

[scott]

One other note in regard to the CHI pick is that we also got Thad Young, who was used to convert the 33rd pick (which TOR used to take Koloko) into the 20th pick (Malakai Branham). Whether your feelings about Malakai, upgrading a SRP into an FRP and getting a chance at another FRP is pretty good for a player you were going to lose anyway (DDR).

[Atl Spur]

Conditional is suggested by previous post.

They should be good on that one.

[Atl Spur]

The fact that you have a chance at a lottery pick for Jakob in a walk year is amazing in itself! I’ll make that trade 100 out of 100

[Mr. Body]

One other note in regard to the CHI pick is that we also got Thad Young, who was used to convert the 33rd pick (which TOR used to take Koloko) into the 20th pick (Malakai Branham). Whether your feelings about Malakai, upgrading a SRP into an FRP and getting a chance at another FRP is pretty good for a player you were going to lose anyway (DDR).

That's right. Brilliant. And Malaki is going to be nice, just needs work.