Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[duncan2150]

GO RAPS !

[Pauleta14]

The league needs to start hammering teams in the lottery who tank to avoid or delay picks conveying.

These clowns should end up 7th, both so that they can suffer the indignity of the worst possible outcome numerically and for not seeing their shamelessness rewarded.

It’s impossible to police, there are always injuries that players could play through but won’t and will be used to tank.

It’s a négociations issue, Spurs should’ve done a better job. Props to Masai

[scott]

The league needs to start hammering teams in the lottery who tank to avoid or delay picks conveying.

These clowns should end up 7th, both so that they can suffer the indignity of the worst possible outcome numerically and for not seeing their shamelessness rewarded.

Did DAL end up getting any kind of punishment last year?

On one hand, it's anti-competitive to tank like this, but on the other hand... it's not like they are the only team tanking. Whether it is to protect your pick or to increase your lotto odds... tankin' is still tankin'. I think the league needs to implement some kind of anti-tanking measures overall. I like the idea of reducing your lotto odds for repeated appearances at the bottom. That could also work for a team like TOR... 3 straight years in the bottom 6, and the third year the pick can be no better than 7th.

[rascal]

The raps will not tank imo and they are not a bottom 6 team

This is not looking good.

[spurraider21]

nets losing too, and grizzlies currently down as well. but man, losing to detroit?

[objective]

These clowns aren't winning another game

[onechance87]

expect raptors to do shit next year as well.They been sitting players purposely last few
games already.

[Ariel]

The league needs to start hammering teams in the lottery who tank to avoid or delay picks conveying.

These clowns should end up 7th, both so that they can suffer the indignity of the worst possible outcome numerically and for not seeing their shamelessness rewarded.
After what Portland did a couple of years in a row (sitting Dame for an extended period of time when even he said he was able to play) and Dallas (with the most egregious tank job ever in their last game vs the Spurs where they didn't even bother giving an excuse as to why they sat their best players), there's ZERO chance the NBA does anything. Toronto tanking is a foregone conclusion at this point, we have to hope Portland does as usual to keep their 5th place and that would still give the Spurs a decent chance to keep the pick, though not that which we all expected.

[Ariel]

In all honesty, fate fucked us over, they tried not to tank for a long time, but after both Poeltl and Barnes went down there was just no way around it. On the other hand, if it does convey we might just thread the needle, hopefully not for the next Primo though.

[TheGreatYacht]

If we only get one pick this year and use it on RISACHER or TOPIC :lmao

[onechance87]

In all honesty, fate fucked us over, they tried not to tank for a long time, but after both Poeltl and Barnes went down there was just no way around it. On the other hand, if it does convey we might just thread the needle, hopefully not for the next Primo though.

Thats the thing tho,Poeltl is always injured.The last few years hes been missed several games each year.
Guy is injury prone.Expect this same shit next year.

[BacktoBasics]

Worse, he's a bigot who just like the others isn't interested in hearing the fact that I've repeatedly stated, which is that the GM is not the lead decision maker.

Anyone with common sense and objectivity would know this is at minimum what Pop himself alluded to yesterday, which is a collaborative effort.

That makes sense. The bigots here usually have horrid basketball takes. The stupidity transcends all aspects.

[itzsoweezee]

expect raptors to do shit next year as well.They been sitting players purposely last few
games already.

For sure. There’s zero chance the raptors are not tanking next year

[TVI]

Too bad the Spurs couldn't have negotiated an anti-tank measure, like successive years where the pick gets successively less protected, like top 6 year 1, top 4 year 2, top 2 year three, etc.

[The Truth #6]

Hard to expect anti-tanking measures when they can't even police flopping. Just saying.

[CorrectCrusader]

Hard to expect anti-tanking measures when they can't even police flopping. Just saying.

Getting rid of Tanking is stupid. Bad teams need a good shot at getting good players otherwise they'll be bad forever (see Sacramento, Suns, Charlotte, Pistons, etc). As long as GOOD teams aren't losing on purpose I don't see the problem. Stomache one bad season as a fan so you can have hope (like we did)

[onechance87]

scoot is so bad lol

[mudyez]

Everybody needs to chill...

1. It may be better for us, if they finish 6th...this giving us a better chance of optimizing the pick.

2. It may be better to have this pick another year (with better drafts).

3. They may jump into the top4 anyway (and like with our Houston coin flip and combinations, that could happen from No7 while No6 slides down)

4. It was kind of a free pick anyway.

5. There are two more years, where we might get it...and if youplay with the draft sim, you get a feeling for even 4th worst teams sliding down to 7th. With Barnes I don't see them beeing bottom 3 for two more years.

6. We are the luckiest franchise when it comes down to drafting, no matter what happens over the next 30 years.

That said...it's all fun to look at other teams just because we own their pick, but nobody should panic or have a bad day because Toronto lost / Memphis won etc.

[scott]

Getting rid of Tanking is stupid. Bad teams need a good shot at getting good players otherwise they'll be bad forever (see Sacramento, Suns, Charlotte, Pistons, etc). As long as GOOD teams aren't losing on purpose I don't see the problem. Stomache one bad season as a fan so you can have hope (like we did)

Yeah, but it’s not like years of tanking has helped those teams get any better either. How long have the Pistons been tanking? When will it end?

[Splits]

disaster

[onechance87]

It doesn’t matter. You can’t out tank teams that have been on the tank since October. ALL of those teams are sitting players for a hangnail.

............

[onechance87]

They’re not getting into the top 5.

hope so buddy

[Splits]

I swear if I read another post that says "hard tank" again, I'm gonna go Milton/Office Space. Please just stfu.

[ismael-robert]

So are we hard tanking or not...maybe it's like a mid chub tank, semi flaccid?

[scott]

Should have known better than to think the team with Grady Dick wouldn't Hard Tank

[Splits]

Nope. Memphis is currently 6th, but on a tear. Every win brings them closer to swapping 6/7 with Toronto, and cutting our pick odds. 7th is like ~68%, 6th is like ~53%. You have it backwards.

Strangely enough, Toronto moving to 6 gives us the best odds at just pick #7, ~29%.

You're right. I was wrong. Old age can fuck math over, sad

[rascal]

Likely will go into next year with Topic as the only draft pick and a second rounder playing in the G league.

And a couple of low role player additions to the roster. Going to basically roll out the same team next year.

[Kevin]

Likely will go into next year with Topic as the only draft pick and a second rounder playing in the G league.

And a couple of low role player additions to the roster. Going to basically roll out the same team next year.

God I hope not. That's depressing. If Topic doesn't work out its starting to look like first era LeBron Cavs bad. Thankfully I think they trade for Trea Young this summer to not chance that fate.

[Raven]

not looking good.

[Pauleta14]

Likely will go into next year with Topic as the only draft pick and a second rounder playing in the G league.

And a couple of low role player additions to the roster. Going to basically roll out the same team next year.

That’s how I see it too.

PATFO dgaf of all the supposed pressure from outside. They’ll tank 100%

[spurraider21]

yeah my best guess is the raptors finish #6 from the bottom so we will just have something like a 54% chance of landing the pick this year

[exstatic]

yeah my best guess is the raptors finish #6 from the bottom so we will just have something like a 54% chance of landing the pick this year

They could finish 7th. Memphis feel good story has waned a bit. Even if they finish 6th, that gives us the best shot of any finishing position at getting pick #7, ~29%.

[mo7888]

They could finish 7th. Memphis feel good story has waned a bit. Even if they finish 6th, that gives us the best shot of any finishing position at getting pick #7, ~29%.

If they finish 6th it's still just over 50% in total that it conveys I believe.

[LeBowen]

https://i.imgur.com/BemZAHK.png

Idk why are you guys obsessing with Raptors record.
At this point there's no chance for them to get odds that would most likely guarantee to keep their pick, but also there's no chance they climb high enough to be very likely to lose it.
It's just a coin flip with these odds.

[mo7888]

https://i.imgur.com/BemZAHK.png

Idk why are you guys obsessing with Raptors record.
At this point there's no chance for them to get odds that would most likely guarantee to keep their pick, but also there's no chance they climb high enough to be very likely to lose it.
It's just a coin flip with these odds.

Yup its either a roughly 52% or 64% chance it conveys no matter what Toronto or Memphis does from here on out..

[SpursBills]

I actually think Toronto is bad enough that they can potentially make up the difference to pass Portland - we'll see

[TD 21]

It’s impossible to police, there are always injuries that players could play through but won’t and will be used to tank.

It’s a négociations issue, Spurs should’ve done a better job. Props to Masai

The Spurs fleeced the Craptors in this trade no matter how it turns out.



Did DAL end up getting any kind of punishment last year?

On one hand, it's anti-competitive to tank like this, but on the other hand... it's not like they are the only team tanking. Whether it is to protect your pick or to increase your lotto odds... tankin' is still tankin'. I think the league needs to implement some kind of anti-tanking measures overall. I like the idea of reducing your lotto odds for repeated appearances at the bottom. That could also work for a team like TOR... 3 straight years in the bottom 6, and the third year the pick can be no better than 7th.


After what Portland did a couple of years in a row (sitting Dame for an extended period of time when even he said he was able to play) and Dallas (with the most egregious tank job ever in their last game vs the Spurs where they didn't even bother giving an excuse as to why they sat their best players), there's ZERO chance the NBA does anything. Toronto tanking is a foregone conclusion at this point, we have to hope Portland does as usual to keep their 5th place and that would still give the Spurs a decent chance to keep the pick, though not that which we all expected.

This is worse than usual tanking because it's basically operating in bad faith post trade and in this specific case, they essentially admitted it was a mistake and are now trying to weasel their way out of it.

I didn't say they were the only ones, I said at some point the league needs to stop rewarding it and it's easier to control the higher it is.

Make the next few who pull it lie in their bed and maybe it'll begin to be somewhat curtailed or just institute a rule whereby if they see this type of behavior, the pick automatically conveys.

[exstatic]

I actually think Toronto is bad enough that they can potentially make up the difference to pass Portland - we'll see

Don’t think there’s enough time left, with some teams having only 15-16 games left , plus Portland is pretty committed. They have a 3.5 game advantage, and if Toronto were to bite halfway into it, a rash of Blazer injuries would suddenly pop up.

[scott]

I would never bet against Portland in a tank battle :lol

Even if the Raptors finish 6th, that's still a slightly greater than 50% chance of getting the pick at maximum value, which is an impressive threading of the needle.

[Mugen]

Haven't looked it up directly but I saw on reddit somewhere that 7th worst odds has moved up a bunch in the last 10 years while 6th worst has moved down more often than not. Would still really love for that pick to convey this draft tbh.

[BacktoBasics]

Haven't looked it up directly but I saw on reddit somewhere that 7th worst odds has moved up a bunch in the last 10 years while 6th worst has moved down more often than not. Would still really love for that pick to convey this draft tbh.

I want it to convey simply to ensure it conveys but raps are kinda dumb to tank this year. Same protection next year and that draft is looking to be considerably deeper.

If I’m the Spurs I’d probably rather have a late lottery pick next year than the 7th or 8th in this draft.

All it takes is for the raps to be slightly better next year.

[spurraider21]

Haven't looked it up directly but I saw on reddit somewhere that 7th worst odds has moved up a bunch in the last 10 years while 6th worst has moved down more often than not. Would still really love for that pick to convey this draft tbh.
Doesn’t matter. The odds are the odds.

or else someone on Reddit can say they flipped a coin 10 times and got heads 7 times and now you think heads is a smart bet

[south side spur]

https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/race-to-the-bottom-why-some-raptors-fans-are-cheering-for-toronto-to-lose-every/article_748ab176-e21a-11ee-adfc-93fde12e3878.html


By finishing with the seventh-worst record, they would enter the lottery with only a 31.9 per cent chance of jumping into the top four and keeping their pick. A sixth-worst record would give Toronto a 45.8 per cent chance, according to Tankathon.com (https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds).

A team with the sixth-worst record has a 29.8 per cent chance of falling to seventh in the lottery and a 20.5 per cent chance of dropping to eighth. Toronto would lose its pick in either scenario if it finishes with the sixth-worst record.

On the bright side, oddsmakers give the sixth-worst team an 8.6 per cent chance of staying in the sixth spot, and a 37.2 per cent chance of jumping into the top four.

The argument for giving up the pick this year


This is where there's a big split in the fan base. Some fans seem hell-bent on wanting the Raptors to give up the pick this season, based on reports that none of the prospects at the top of the draft are projected to develop into cornerstone players. It's tough to follow the hype that surrounded last year’s top pick, Victor Wembanyama (https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/he-is-more-like-an-alien-why-some-nba-fans-are-urging-their-team-to/article_be7be510-40dd-5de9-8a39-0a549338aa0f.html).

Next year's draft is expected to be much stronger, which is why some fans want to extinguish the draft obligation to the Spurs this summer and keep the draft pick in 2025.

[Ignazzz]

Doesn’t matter. The odds are the odds.

or else someone on Reddit can say they flipped a coin 10 times and got heads 7 times and now you think heads is a smart bet

can be somerhing wrong with coin

[Ariel]

I didn't say they were the only ones, I said at some point the league needs to stop rewarding it and it's easier to control the higher it is.

Make the next few who pull it lie in their bed and maybe it'll begin to be somewhat curtailed or just institute a rule whereby if they see this type of behavior, the pick automatically conveys.
That is very hard to regulate. You can scrutinize medical reports and make sure there's at least a plausible excuse, but at the end of the day there's always going to be a margin for shenanigans. Something that sounds more natural to me is that teams that engage in this practice may not be prevented from doing so, but it will affect their reputation and future trades. Take Dallas for example. These are the trades following their shady actions to keep that pick from conveying:


'27 first to Charlotte (PJ Washington - Grant Williams swap): top 2 protected
'28 swap to OKC (got a pick from OKC used in the Gafford trade): unprotected
'30 swap to Spurs (Grant Williams trade): unprotected

So you'll seE there's minimal or no protection at all on on their picks. I would expect those doing business with organizations that don't act in good faith to continue to demand a premium to be paid to make up for the uncertainty, whether in terms of a lighter protection (as in Dallas case), or a prolonged period to convey as in Portland's case (the pick they sent to Chicago in the Larry Nance trade was a '23 FRP protected through '28 -SIX YEARS!!!-).

[exstatic]

That is very hard to regulate. You can scrutinize medical reports and make sure there's at least a plausible excuse, but at the end of the day there's always going to be a margin for shenanigans. Something that sounds more natural to me is that teams that engage in this practice may not be prevented from doing so, but it will affect their reputation and future trades. Take Dallas for example. These are the trades following their shady actions to keep that pick from conveying:


'27 first to Charlotte (PJ Washington - Grant Williams swap): top 2 protected
'28 swap to OKC (got a pick from OKC used in the Gafford trade): unprotected
'30 swap to Spurs (Grant Williams trade): unprotected

So you'll seE there's minimal or no protection at all on on their picks. I would expect those doing business with organizations that don't act in good faith to continue to demand a premium to be paid to make up for the uncertainty, whether in terms of a lighter protection (as in Dallas case), or a prolonged period to convey as in Portland's case (the pick they sent to Chicago in the Larry Nance trade was a '23 FRP protected through '28 -SIX YEARS!!!-).

Portland also has one of those eternal picks hanging out there from a trade with Chicago in 2021. It has 5 more years at 1-14 protection, and I think one or maybe two years have already elapsed. This is a clinic on how to make sure you never get in on any blockbuster trades, because your pick is tied up for more than a half decade.

[duncan2150]

Will be interesting to have a look on brooklyn playing b2b against indy and us tomorrow, they're not that far ahead of toronto.

[onechance87]

if memphis beats okc,i will be mind blown.We should of thrown big money at their coach and scouts.

[Splits]

we're going to fall to the 7 pick, enabling TOR to end up 6, and this place is going to lose its collective minds on May 12th.

[exstatic]

we're going to fall to the 7 pick, enabling TOR to end up 6, and this place is going to lose its collective minds on May 12th.

Nothing matters until after the lottery. Final finish is irrelevant. People need to stop losing their shit after every game.

[Splits]

Nothing matters until after the lottery. Final finish is irrelevant. People need to stop losing their shit after every game.

Ummm, May 12th is the lottery

[exstatic]

Ummm, May 12th is the lottery

Right, nearly TWO MONTHS AWAY. The post lottery results are what determine the pick, not the final finish.

[Splits]

Right, nearly TWO MONTHS AWAY. The post lottery results are what determine the pick, not the final finish.

not sure why you quoted me then, I was talking about lottery night not tonight's games

[objective]

if memphis beats okc,i will be mind blown.We should of thrown big money at their coach and scouts.

I've posted it before and will probably keep doing it: Blake Ahearn, Memphis assistant and former Austin Spurs G-league head coach, as well as briefly a Spurs player for 3 games, should be on the shortlist of coaching candidates when Pop retires in 25 years

[exstatic]

not sure why you quoted me then, I was talking about lottery night not tonight's games

The most negative view possible, then. If they finish 6th, the odds of them staying there are 8.6%. They have better odds at the #1 pick, 9%, and the odds of them dropping to #7 and surrendering the pick are 29.8%, the highest odds of #7 for any finish position.

[Splits]

The most negative view possible, then. If they finish 6th, the odds of them staying there are 8.6%. They have better odds at the #1 pick, 9%, and the odds of them dropping to #7 and surrendering the pick are 29.8%, the highest odds of #7 for any finish position.

https://media1.tenor.com/m/VKU7xwwZJ_EAAAAC/dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif

and Spurs dropping to 7th is a 7% chance. so yes, absolute worst case scenario

[exstatic]

https://media1.tenor.com/m/VKU7xwwZJ_EAAAAC/dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif

and Spurs dropping to 7th is a 7% chance. so yes, absolute worst case scenario

No, if Toronto finishes 6th in the final finish, the odds of them dropping to 7th are 29.8%. Check the pick odds on Tankathon.

[Splits]

No, if Toronto finishes 6th in the final finish, the odds of them dropping to 7th are 29.8%. Check the pick odds on Tankathon.

re-read my post

[Rubberducky]

King's choking this game against Memphis. Toronto's about to overtake them for 6th.

[onechance87]

King's choking this game against Memphis. Toronto's about to overtake them for 6th.

how.........

[Rubberducky]

Memphis up 2 with 33 seconds left.

EDIT: Going to overtime.

[spurraider21]

Well sacto finally did the job and won

but Memphis is playing way better than Toronto is right now. Only a matter of time imo

[exstatic]

It’s possible that Toronto climbs to 6, but that’s probably it. Portland have become expert tankers the last two years, and likely see Toronto in their rear view mirror. With most teams approaching 70 games, there isn’t enough time left to jump to #5, and erase that 4 game gap. I’m ok with Toronto at #6 pre-lottery, because they have very little chance of staying there, less chance than we had to win the lottery last year, hell less chance than THEY have of winning the lottery this year at the #6 position.

[Splits]

at the end of the day, this pick is trade-bait. there's no way the FO is going to just draft 18yo, or multiple of them, hoping they work out. it just doesn't make sense

[onechance87]

It’s possible that Toronto climbs to 6, but that’s probably it. Portland have become expert tankers the last two years, and likely see Toronto in their rear view mirror. With most teams approaching 70 games, there isn’t enough time left to jump to #5, and erase that 4 game gap. I’m ok with Toronto at #6 pre-lottery, because they have very little chance of staying there, less chance than we had to win the lottery last year, hell less chance than THEY have of winning the lottery this year at the #6 position.

them getting 6 is not ok...Thats bad for us.Odds are in there favor.If they get 7th worst,Odds are in our favor.

[exstatic]

them getting 6 is not ok...Thats bad for us.Odds are in there favor.If they get 7th worst,Odds are in our favor.

For the overall pick, yes, it’s better for them to be #7. For scoring pick #7? FAR, far better for them to finish 6th. If they finish 7th, the pick has a 19.7 chance of being #7. If they finish 6th, those odds for pick #7 become 29.8%.

[Mr. Body]

I've posted it before and will probably keep doing it: Blake Ahearn, Memphis assistant and former Austin Spurs G-league head coach, as well as briefly a Spurs player for 3 games, should be on the shortlist of coaching candidates when Pop retires in 25 years

Something magic is going on in Memphis, whether it's Jenkins or other members of his coaching staff.

[exstatic]

Something magic is going on in Memphis, whether it's Jenkins or other members of his coaching staff.

It’s stupid, because they have no chance of playing in, they’re just dropping their pick odds. Imagine the difference between adding a top 3 pick to Ja and JJJ, or adding a 7-9 pick.

[LeBowen]

It’s stupid, because they have no chance of playing in, they’re just dropping their pick odds. Imagine the difference between adding a top 3 pick to Ja and JJJ, or adding a 7-9 pick.

Haven't we established that top3 in this year's draft is nothing special? :lol

Anyhow, there was no way for them to get top3 worst odds with current worst teams being so bad.
Having 4th or 6th worst odds doesn't change that much. They're looking for role players, anyway.

[duncan2150]

It’s possible that Toronto climbs to 6, but that’s probably it. Portland have become expert tankers the last two years, and likely see Toronto in their rear view mirror. With most teams approaching 70 games, there isn’t enough time left to jump to #5, and erase that 4 game gap. I’m ok with Toronto at #6 pre-lottery, because they have very little chance of staying there, less chance than we had to win the lottery last year, hell less chance than THEY have of winning the lottery this year at the #6 position.

plus Portland has the 5th strongest schedule remaining, with the return of bane memphis will pass toronto but they'll be 6th before the lottery.

[Mugen]

Something magic is going on in Memphis, whether it's Jenkins or other members of his coaching staff.

It's called having a competent coach and system tbh.

[exstatic]

Haven't we established that top3 in this year's draft is nothing special? :lol

Anyhow, there was no way for them to get top3 worst odds with current worst teams being so bad.
Having 4th or 6th worst odds doesn't change that much. They're looking for role players, anyway.

That’s your opinion.

I think they probably could have gotten as high as #4, pre lottery, if they had gone into the tank when they should have.

[Mugen]

It’s stupid, because they have no chance of playing in, they’re just dropping their pick odds. Imagine the difference between adding a top 3 pick to Ja and JJJ, or adding a 7-9 pick.

In this draft, probably not a lot.

[scott]

It’s stupid, because they have no chance of playing in, they’re just dropping their pick odds. Imagine the difference between adding a top 3 pick to Ja and JJJ, or adding a 7-9 pick.

They realize something that many pro-tankers don’t: there is actual value in developing, playing competitive basketball and not being bottom dwelling losers for multiple years. The competitiveness that the role players experience now will pay major dividends when their stars are back in the fold… much more than the difference between taking Kirk Heinrich at #3 instead of Goran Dragic at #7.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

It’s stupid, because they have no chance of playing in, they’re just dropping their pick odds. Imagine the difference between adding a top 3 pick to Ja and JJJ, or adding a 7-9 pick.

In addition to the better than decent chance that the number 9 pick in this draft is just as good as the number 1 pick, I think that not tanking is good for maintaining a franchise standard and winning culture, good for keeping their fanbase engaged, and just generally overall good karma in the eyes of the basketball gods.

I don't begrudge the Spurs front office for not fully tanking after trading Kawhi even though it may have been the smart thing to do at the time. In many ways, I admire it. I like to think in my warped little mind that things worked out the way they did with Wemby for the same reasons. Watch Memphis defy the lottery odds and end up in the top 3 anyway.

[LeBowen]

That’s your opinion.

It's actually not. But it is the most common opinion on this forum.


I think they probably could have gotten as high as #4, pre lottery, if they had gone into the tank when they should have.

Yeah, let's ruin the development of a team full of young players just for slightly better odds in a weak draft.
Not to mention that their roster needs are different from what top5 worst teams are looking for.

[Mr. Body]

In addition to the better than decent chance that the number 9 pick in this draft is just as good as the number 1 pick, I think that not tanking is good for maintaining a franchise standard and winning culture, good for keeping their fanbase engaged, and just generally overall good karma in the eyes of the basketball gods.

I don't begrudge the Spurs front office for not fully tanking after trading Kawhi even though it may have been the smart thing to do at the time. In many ways, I admire it. I like to think in my warped little mind that things worked out the way they did with Wemby for the same reasons. Watch Memphis defy the lottery odds and end up in the top 3 anyway.

*nods head*

As I've said before, I'd rather pay the number 7 pick in this draft $5.5 million a year rather than the number 1 pick in this draft $10 million a year.

Maybe I'd rather get that 5 pick, which is $6.6 million. Either way, I'm wary of top salary for any of these players.

[exstatic]

It's actually not. But it is the most common opinion on this forum.



Yeah, let's ruin the development of a team full of young players just for slightly better odds in a weak draft.
Not to mention that their roster needs are different from what top5 worst teams are looking for.

This team wasn’t torn down. They’ve been to the playoffs a few times. Those ‘young players’ you’re talking about are a bunch of ragtag gleaguers,for the most part.

As for the opinions of this forum, it’s usually monkeys flinging crap, the loudest getting the most attention. No one really knows what a draft it until 3 years have past,which is why next year re-drafts are ridiculous.

[scott]

Memphis's "bunch of ragtag g-leaguers" are get crucial development that will aid them in being role players on their team in the future.

Meanwhile, we have Wemby surrounded by a bunch of ragtag g-leaguers who we confuse as future cornerstones who are learning nothing other than how to be losers.

[LeBowen]

This team wasn’t torn down. They’ve been to the playoffs a few times.

Did I say otherwise?


Those ‘young players’ you’re talking about are a bunch of ragtag gleaguers,for the most part.

And? Turning a couple of those G-leaguers into rotation pieces for the next season is way better than having 4th best draft odds instead of 6th.

[Kevin]

Memphis's "bunch of ragtag g-leaguers" are get crucial development that will aid them in being role players on their team in the future.

Meanwhile, we have Wemby surrounded by a bunch of ragtag g-leaguers who we confuse as future cornerstones who are learning nothing other than how to be losers.

The difference is that Memphis has a second star and third star and we don't.

[exstatic]

Did I say otherwise?



And? Turning a couple of those G-leaguers into rotation pieces for the next season is way better than having 4th best draft odds instead of 6th.
Those guys will be key rotation pieces for The Hustle next year. The gap could also be 1st pick to 9th pick.

[scott]

The difference is that Memphis has a second star and third star and we don't.

Touche to that, indeed a key difference. But also good reason why Memphis probably doesn't care too much about the difference between the 4th best odds and the 7th best odds.

[DPG21920]

I freaking hate TOR for not being able to out win a decimated MEM. So impressed with how MEM has played and how they are coached and built.

TOR sucks and its so annoying that this was by far the best chance for the pick to optimally convey (pick 7) and we see it slipping away because TOR cant freaking win anything

[slick'81]

Tor will do everything not to give spurs that pick

[rascal]

Tor will do everything not to give spurs that pick

Some in here didn't believe that when others were telling them.

[exstatic]

I freaking hate TOR for not being able to out win a decimated MEM. So impressed with how MEM has played and how they are coached and built.

TOR sucks and its so annoying that this was by far the best chance for the pick to optimally convey (pick 7) and we see it slipping away because TOR cant freaking win anything

Both Scotty Barnes and Poeltl are injured and out for the year. Tough order.

[DPG21920]

Both Scotty Barnes and Poeltl are injured and out for the year. Tough order.

MEM way worse injuries for way longer though

[exstatic]

Some in here didn't believe that when others were telling them.

Yeah, excepttthey started winning arter the trade deadline right up to the point where Barnes and Poeltl were injured. They were up around 9 then with play in possibilities at that point.

[duncan2150]

Some in here didn't believe that when others were telling them.

Not fair, when we talked about this pick they had og, siakam ect... then they have barrett, barnes, poetl, quickely ... now only the last one is playing.

[onechance87]

Tor will do everything not to give spurs that pick

expect them to do this next year as well,When they struggle to try make the playoffs.Alot of potential stars in
next year draft.We wont be getting it ever.

[rascal]

Not fair, when we talked about this pick they had og, siakam ect... then they have barrett, barnes, poetl, quickely ... now only the last one is playing.

Very fair, it was well known they were going to unload players.

[TD 21]

:lmao Never fails. Undertalented team with white coach wins more than expected = the coach must have discovered plutonium.

Couldn't possibly be because the mostly black players are better than previously thought (namely, they've stumbled into Williams Jr. and Jackson II).

Add probably a mid lottery pick (the league should reward their honorable/stupid decision to bring players back by moving them into the top 4) and a good backup C (Bitadze?) and they'll be back with a vengeance next season.

[Mr. Body]

Brother, Doc Rivers was doing way worse with better players than Jenkins has been doing with barely adequate players. Just go be racist somewhere else.

[baseline bum]

*nods head*

As I've said before, I'd rather pay the number 7 pick in this draft $5.5 million a year rather than the number 1 pick in this draft $10 million a year.

Maybe I'd rather get that 5 pick, which is $6.6 million. Either way, I'm wary of top salary for any of these players.

Meh it's peanuts, especially in comparison to paying Zollins $17 million next year. I'd rather the team get their choice of who they want.

[spurraider21]

Undertalented team wins more than expected = the coach must be dong something right.
fify

[TD 21]

Brother, Doc Rivers was doing way worse with better players than Jenkins has been doing with barely adequate players. Just go be racist somewhere else.

:lmao Not knowing the difference between racial bias and racist, getting defensive every time the subject is broached and bringing up Rivers, whitey's favorite NBA punching bag.


fify

Tell me then, what's Jenkins doing that's so smart that most others apparently haven't figured out . . .

[duncan2150]

Very fair, it was well known they were going to unload players.

no and what's fun is that they will be pick 6 at max after unloading players and having bunch of injuries ( something you and i did not know they'll have)

[Knoxxx]

TOR has to have a top 6 pick for three straight years to not convey. And this is only year 1, so that’d be awfully ugly for their fan base to endure!

[Splits]

If it's Tuesday, it's Mrs. Body accusing someone of being racist

[onechance87]

If it's Tuesday, it's Mrs. Body accusing someone of being racist

every team goes thru it.We are doing it right now.

[duncan2150]

Interesting note for the pick : Memphis next game is at San antonio and they will play the spurs another time before the end of the season.

[spurraider21]

Interesting note for the pick : Memphis next game is at San antonio and they will play the spurs another time before the end of the season.
its been nice having "must win" games again

[Mr. Body]

Unless the Spurs don't want the Toronto pick this year and toss the games to Memphis.

[onechance87]

Interesting note for the pick : Memphis next game is at San antonio and they will play the spurs another time before the end of the season.

wemby did get hurt at the ending of the game vs the mavs.Hopefully hes good to go

[exstatic]

Unless the Spurs don't want the Toronto pick this year and toss the games to Memphis.

Unlikely, as this year could be its best position. They should be beating down Memphis both times, but recent wins have put their own position in jeopardy, with Charlotte only two games back, and freefalling.

[exstatic]

Good news: Memphis is playing GS who is jockeying for play in position to host the 9/10 game.

Bad news: Toronto is playing Sacto.

Probably another push, but that is a win in the clock running out on Toronto.

[Mr. Body]

Unlikely, as this year could be its best position. They should be beating down Memphis both times, but recent wins have put their own position in jeopardy, with Charlotte only two games back, and freefalling.

Most likely the team doesn't really care about positioning. This is the team that didn't work to avoid Memphis fifteen years ago. It's just what they do.

Not wanting the Toronto pick isn't a big deal. They can always move extra picks next year if needed.

[Mr. Body]

The difference between the pick conveying if Toronto stays where it is or falls under Memphis is 13.9%. It's not really a huge deal.

[jjspur]

Look, last year everybody was arguing about the spurs pick, We got real lucky and got Wemby. No such player this year or one that even comes close.

This year it's the Toronto pick. The Toronto pick is theirs until it isn't. We shouldn't cry about them tanking because we did it last year and quite obviously I might add. If we don't get it, we still have 2 more years to acquire the pick. With the overfall talent on that team plus a top 6 pick (if they get it) from this year's draft, they should be better than the 6th worst record next year.

We'll have at least a top 7 pick this year plus two 2nd round picks and a decent amount of money to spend on some free agents. After the season ends the ball is in the front offices court, and they have the resources to do a decent job of improving the team this year. Do that plus an extra pick next year and things will really be moving forward.

[exstatic]

Look, last year everybody was arguing about the spurs pick, We got real lucky and got Wemby. No such player this year or one that even comes close.

This year it's the Toronto pick. The Toronto pick is theirs until it isn't. We shouldn't cry about them tanking because we did it last year and quite obviously I might add. If we don't get it, we still have 2 more years to acquire the pick. With the overfall talent on that team plus a top 6 pick (if they get it) from this year's draft, they should be better than the 6th worst record next year.

We'll have at least a top 7 pick this year plus two 2nd round picks and a decent amount of money to spend on some free agents. After the season ends the ball is in the front offices court, and they have the resources to do a decent job of improving the team this year. Do that plus an extra pick next year and things will really be moving forward.

Some posters here want the pick at its maximum value,#7. Some also don’t want to see us pick five times in the first round next year,our own, ATL,TOR,CHI,CHA.

[onechance87]

Look, last year everybody was arguing about the spurs pick, We got real lucky and got Wemby. No such player this year or one that even comes close.

This year it's the Toronto pick. The Toronto pick is theirs until it isn't. We shouldn't cry about them tanking because we did it last year and quite obviously I might add. If we don't get it, we still have 2 more years to acquire the pick. With the overfall talent on that team plus a top 6 pick (if they get it) from this year's draft, they should be better than the 6th worst record next year.

We'll have at least a top 7 pick this year plus two 2nd round picks and a decent amount of money to spend on some free agents. After the season ends the ball is in the front offices court, and they have the resources to do a decent job of improving the team this year. Do that plus an extra pick next year and things will really be moving forward.

you think they are gonna be better,When they trade brown and poeltl next season?I can see it already.They will struggle to make the playoffs
and trade there role players to tank,To get there chance at a young star in next years draft.

[exstatic]

you think they are gonna be better,When they trade brown and poeltl next season?I can see it already.They will struggle to make the playoffs
and trade there role players to tank,To get there chance at a young star in next years draft.

Why do you think they will trade Poeltl? They just got him back from us.

[objective]

With the overfall talent on that team plus a top 6 pick (if they get it) from this year's draft, they should be better than the 6th worst record next year.


Would a top 6 pick in this draft improve Toronto next year?

Spurs got Wemby, bottom 5 record
Charlotte #2, bottom 5 record
Portland #3, bottom 5 record
Houston #4 + $60 million spending on veteran free agents, bottom 11 record
Detroit #5, bottom 5 record
Orlando #6 is better but Black is scoring 4 points & 1 assist in under 20 minutes a game, he's not a big difference maker

Also ask which teams in the current bottom 7 should be better, and which teams above Toronto should be worse?

Barring some tragedy, Spurs and Memphis should leapfrog Toronto next year with health and modest free agency / trade improvements

That would move Toronto to bottom 5

Who should be worse? Washington, Detroit, and Portland are reasonable to be worse. Charlotte if healthy competes for a play in I think.

Brooklyn has no incentive to tank though they are weak. Atlanta with Trae Young might as well be guaranteed a play in spot. Chicago if they keep DeRozan will continue to try for the play in.

Toronto could be just as bad next year but with the 4th or 5th best lotto odds as easily as they could be 10th and going for the play in

[spurraider21]

i mean if the raptors werent missing barnes and poeltl they wouldnt be in the tankfest

[exstatic]

i mean if the raptors werent missing barnes and poeltl they wouldnt be in the tankfest

Someone who gets it.

[objective]

Even with Barnes and Poeltl I expect they'll be worse than SA and Memphis.

Unless I'm not seeing things right, Toronto played 18 games after the Siakam trade and before the game Barnes only played 15 minutes before the injury so I don't count that one. They were 6-12, which over a season would be about 6th place lottery odds and they weren't even tanking and Barnes played in every game. Poeltl missed 6 of those games & they went 1-5 but no one is going to be perfectly healthy all year.

[Mr. Body]

i mean if the raptors werent missing barnes and poeltl they wouldnt be in the tankfest

Yes, they would very likely stay in the 7 spot with little doubt.

[Mr. Body]

Would a top 6 pick in this draft improve Toronto next year?

Spurs got Wemby, bottom 5 record
Charlotte #2, bottom 5 record
Portland #3, bottom 5 record
Houston #4 + $60 million spending on veteran free agents, bottom 11 record
Detroit #5, bottom 5 record
Orlando #6 is better but Black is scoring 4 points & 1 assist in under 20 minutes a game, he's not a big difference maker

Also ask which teams in the current bottom 7 should be better, and which teams above Toronto should be worse?

Barring some tragedy, Spurs and Memphis should leapfrog Toronto next year with health and modest free agency / trade improvements

That would move Toronto to bottom 5

Who should be worse? Washington, Detroit, and Portland are reasonable to be worse. Charlotte if healthy competes for a play in I think.

Brooklyn has no incentive to tank though they are weak. Atlanta with Trae Young might as well be guaranteed a play in spot. Chicago if they keep DeRozan will continue to try for the play in.

Toronto could be just as bad next year but with the 4th or 5th best lotto odds as easily as they could be 10th and going for the play in

Fair question.

Toronto wouldn't just get a top 6 pick, they also get Indiana's pick this year from the Siakam trade.

Washington
Detroit
Portland
Charlotte

Are all likely to be pretty bad. Charlotte could reasonably be better, but does anyone actually think so? LaMello is a demented chucker who is in the Shaeden Sharpe "I'm totally injured, trust me, bro" camp.

Brooklyn will probably be awful.

Hopefully we won't be, but who knows.

And then we have Chicago and Atlanta, which are dangling on the precipice.

So... right now, I have five teams worse than Toronto: Detroit, Washington, Portland, Charlotte, Brooklyn. Leaving Toronto to dangle around where we find them now at baseline.

[exstatic]

Yes, they would very likely stay in the 7 spot with little doubt.

They might, anyway.

[Mr. Body]

Also, with a potentially very good draft with multiple promising players, teams with injuries or who are struggling might pull the plug mid season and tank. Yes, that could include Toronto.

[exstatic]

Also, with a potentially very good draft with multiple promising players, teams with injuries or who are struggling might pull the plug mid season and tank. Yes, that could include Toronto.

Mid season tanks almost never get you higher than position #6. Portland did that the last two seasons before this one, and finished in positions 7 and 6.

[pad300]

I think that there will be a lot of teams tanking in 24/25 (Flagg and Bailey ) and 25/26 (Boozer and Dybantsa); the chance to get a legitimate franchise player be very attractive to lots of teams... So if the TO pick doesn't convey this year, they are really going to have to work to stay in the top 6 for 2 more years...

[jjspur]

Some posters here want the pick at its maximum value,#7. Some also don’t want to see us pick five times in the first round next year, our own, ATL,TOR,CHI,CHA.

I totally get that we don't want five 1st rounders in next years draft (although we could trade the not so valuable ones for players/ future picks), I also get posters want the maximum value pick but we don't control what Toronto does. If they decide to tank for the next few weeks, they will get their pick and we won't.. its that simple. It is sound logic - building for the future starting this season. They don't give a crap about us, they are watching out for their own team.

[baseline bum]

I totally get that we don't want five 1st rounders in next years draft (although we could trade the not so valuable ones for players/ future picks), I also get posters want the maximum value pick but we don't control what Toronto does. If they decide to tank for the next few weeks, they will get their pick and we won't.. its that simple. It is sound logic - building for the future starting this season. They don't give a crap about us, they are watching out for their own team.

They'd have a hell of a hard time catching Portland or Charlotte for fifth worst record and finishing sixth only gives them a 45.85% chance at keeping their pick. Portland and Charlotte are tanking too and Toronto is 4 games ahead of Portland in the loss column with 14 games left. They're 7 games ahead of Charlotte in the loss column. Portland's next 3 games are against the Clippers and Nuggets too, with both teams jockeying for seeding.

[jjspur]

Would a top 6 pick in this draft improve Toronto next year?

Spurs got Wemby, bottom 5 record
Charlotte #2, bottom 5 record
Portland #3, bottom 5 record
Houston #4 + $60 million spending on veteran free agents, bottom 11 record
Detroit #5, bottom 5 record
Orlando #6 is better but Black is scoring 4 points & 1 assist in under 20 minutes a game, he's not a big difference maker

Also ask which teams in the current bottom 7 should be better, and which teams above Toronto should be worse?

Barring some tragedy, Spurs and Memphis should leapfrog Toronto next year with health and modest free agency / trade improvements

That would move Toronto to bottom 5

Who should be worse? Washington, Detroit, and Portland are reasonable to be worse. Charlotte if healthy competes for a play in I think.

Brooklyn has no incentive to tank though they are weak. Atlanta with Trae Young might as well be guaranteed a play in spot. Chicago if they keep DeRozan will continue to try for the play in.

Toronto could be just as bad next year but with the 4th or 5th best lotto odds as easily as they could be 10th and going for the play in

Other than Orlando, Toronto is easily better than the other 5 teams on the list- including us. They have had a bunch of injuries the last few months and have traded away 2 of their best players. if they get a top six pick this year , it only helps them for the future. Remember other than Orlando, all the teams on the list have been tanking for a while now. They tanked because they needed an influx of talent, Toronto is tanking mainly because of injuries. I'm absolutely not a Toronto fan, but I do see them making the best out of a bad situation. If we don't get the pick this year, my guess is that we get their pick next year in the mid to late lottery.

[baseline bum]

Other than Orlando, Toronto is easily better than the other 5 teams on the list- including us. They have had a bunch of injuries the last few months and have traded away 2 of their best players. if they get a top six pick this year , it only helps them for the future. Remember other than Orlando, all the teams on the list have been tanking for a while now. They tanked because they needed an influx of talent, Toronto is tanking mainly because of injuries. I'm absolutely not a Toronto fan, but I do see them making the best out of a bad situation. My guess is that we get their pick next year in the late lottery.

Could be, but the odds are better than even the pick conveys this year unless you think they're going to catch a tanking Blazers team with four more losses already.

[LeBowen]

Once again I'm posting current odds.

https://i.imgur.com/1aSzQoN.png

Pointless to debate about it, it's a coinflip with slightly different odds.

What does interest me are Toronto's future plans.
They're a franchise that's extremely reluctant to tank, especially with Masai, but then again they're stuck.
RJ and Barnes aren't getting you anywhere.

The only way we never get that pick is if Toronto keeps it this year and then decides to blow it up. Can't see that happening. They won't tank in both 2025 and 2026.
But if they decide to, I can see them giving us the pick this year if they can't get the player they want in order to be able to tank in stronger drafts.

[scott]

If TOR wants to tank, then their FO completely mismanaged the OG and (to a lesser extent) Siakam trades.

If TOR wants to tank, the OG trade was SO bad, that someone should get fired. A tanking team should have done a deal that netted them draft capital, not Quickly and Barrett. It would have been like the Spurs trading DJM to ATL not for picks, but for De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish.

[exstatic]

I totally get that we don't want five 1st rounders in next years draft (although we could trade the not so valuable ones for players/ future picks), I also get posters want the maximum value pick but we don't control what Toronto does. If they decide to tank for the next few weeks, they will get their pick and we won't.. its that simple. It is sound logic - building for the future starting this season. They don't give a crap about us, they are watching out for their own team.

I get that. Now, Memphis next few games.
@GS
@SA
@DEN
Lakers
@ORL

They’re going to lose at least 3 of those games, Denver because they’re really good, and GS and LAL because they’re both trying desperately to not be #10, because 10 has never played in. Orlando is also currently battling with NYK for the 4/5 home court.

Toronto can lose all they want, but I’m pretty sure Memphis is going to, too, and the clock is running out on the season.

It’s really fucking difficult to tank at the end of the year, post ASB, and have an impact on the top 5. If they finish 6th, they only have an 8.5% chance of staying there, with the two most likely spots by % as 7 and 8. If they finish 7th, they could jump into the top 4. We just don’t know anything until the lottery happens, and to make pronouncements like ‘they’re keeping their pick’ is foolishness.

[onechance87]

If TOR wants to tank, then their FO completely mismanaged the OG and (to a lesser extent) Siakam trades.

If TOR wants to tank, the OG trade was SO bad, that someone should get fired. A tanking team should have done a deal that netted them draft capital, not Quickly and Barrett. It would have been like the Spurs trading DJM to ATL not for picks, but for De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish.

they were gonna lose them no matter what.Apparently threatening not to sign extensions with teams trying to trade for them.
They got what they could get.No teams were gonna trade draft capital just to lose them a few months later.

[exstatic]

they were gonna lose them no matter what.Apparently threatening not to sign extensions with teams trying to trade for them.
They got what they could get.No teams were gonna trade draft capital just to lose them a few months later.

Yeah,they were dumb to not trade them last summer.

[BatManu20]

Raptors down 25 at half :lol

[heyheymymy]

Unlikely, as this year could be its best position. They should be beating down Memphis both times, but recent [Spurs] wins have put their own position in jeopardy, with Charlotte only two games back, and freefalling.

Exactly. People on ST getting bent out of shape over say a meaningless road L to the Kings when Spurs are after the ASB with like a dozen wins. Look at the standings, SA only has like a 3 game head room and must be selective with their own wins.

Sparing Ws so SA can go genuine at a team like MEM and hopefully win to smash the Grizz possibly under the Raps and get TOR to float up. Anything SA can do to help lock TOR into a more optimal conveyance environment should be a priority. Not useless reg season wins during a non-contending year.

[rascal]

Raptors down 25 at half :lol

Sitting both Quickley and RJ Barret.

[exstatic]

Sitting both Quickley and RJ Barret.

It’s too late. Memphis now sees them in their rear view mirror, and has been on their own losing streak.

[pad300]

It’s too late. Memphis now sees them in their rear view mirror, and has been on their own losing streak.

The Grizz are down all of 1 point after the first quarter, 33-32 for GS...

[onechance87]

memphis aint want us to get that pick

[jjspur]

Couldn't agree more.

[rascal]

It’s too late. Memphis now sees them in their rear view mirror, and has been on their own losing streak.

Memphis is out of the question. Toronto won't win more games than they will.

[jjspur]

I get that. Now, Memphis next few games.
@GS
@SA
@DEN
Lakers
@ORL

They’re going to lose at least 3 of those games, Denver because they’re really good, and GS and LAL because they’re both trying desperately to not be #10, because 10 has never played in. Orlando is also currently battling with NYK for the 4/5 home court.

Toronto can lose all they want, but I’m pretty sure Memphis is going to, too, and the clock is running out on the season.

It’s really fucking difficult to tank at the end of the year, post ASB, and have an impact on the top 5. If they finish 6th, they only have an 8.5% chance of staying there, with the two most likely spots by % as 7 and 8. If they finish 7th, they could jump into the top 4. We just don’t know anything until the lottery happens, and to make pronouncements like ‘they’re keeping their pick’ is foolishness.

Very well said.

[exstatic]

The Grizz are down all of 1 point after the first quarter, 33-32 for GS...

And now they’re down 20, barely into the 3rd Q. It’s bad enough that you people obsess over every TOR and MEM game, but to freak out DURING a game is just bizarre. The battle will be just for 6/7. Neither can climb any higher or drop any lower. Then, the lottery will take place, and determine if we get the pick or not. That’s more than 2 months away. Take a fucking pill.

[rascal]

Portland has an outside chance of catching Toronto for 6, dropping Toronto to 5. Toronto may not win another game the rest of the year.

[slick'81]

Barring another lottery miracle we aint getting that pick

[mudyez]

Barring another lottery miracle we aint getting that pick

If you call a coin flip a miracle.

[exstatic]

If you call a coin flip a miracle.

It’s actually slightly better than a coin flip, and our best odds at pick #7, but let him wallow in his misery.

[scott]

Been thinking about this a little more, and am even less concerned about the TOR pick than ever, because I am taking this perspective:

If when we traded Jak, I was given the choice between:

(1) three straight years of chances to get between the 7-10 pick, but the odds each year were: Y1 - 55%, Y2 - 45%, Y3 - 40%. If none of those hit, you get two SRPs.
(2) the number 20 pick in Y1, guaranteed

I’m taking choice #1 every time.

So from that POV, the TOR pick is right on schedule.

[Mr. Body]

Barring another lottery miracle we aint getting that pick

Is this website a magnet for the most miserable people on the planet? Or is just in Texas?

[Joseph Kony]

^ :lol the irony

[vy65]

^ :lol the irony

The utter inability to understand the nature of this place is mindblowing. But Mrs. Body is the forum's resident Karen, so there's that.

[duncan2150]

Sitting both Quickley and RJ Barret.

RJ is out because of the death of his young brother


Portland has an outside chance of catching Toronto for 6, dropping Toronto to 5. Toronto may not win another game the rest of the year.

They won 2 of their last 10, they need to win a lot more to erase that 4 games difference between them and toronto......

[onechance87]

so we traded poetlt away for nothing.Should just traded him to boston

[spurraider21]

so we traded poetlt away for nothing.Should just traded him to boston
even if the pick does not convey this year, we still own the pick in 2025 subject to the same protections, and then again in 2026

[duncan2150]

so we traded poetlt away for nothing.Should just traded him to boston

Stop it my friend lol

[duncan2150]

even if the pick does not convey this year, we still own the pick in 2025 subject to the same protections, and then again in 2026

And the raps are 7th now with more than 60% for the pick to convey, we repeat and repeat this but some are pretty crazy there.

[spurraider21]

And the raps are 7th now with more than 60% for the pick to convey, we repeat and repeat this but some are pretty crazy there.
and if they get into 6th position its still over a 50% chance of conveying (and in fact maximizes the chance at getting exactly the #7 overall pick which is the single best outcome)

[TD 21]

Been thinking about this a little more, and am even less concerned about the TOR pick than ever, because I am taking this perspective:

If when we traded Jak, I was given the choice between:

(1) three straight years of chances to get between the 7-10 pick, but the odds each year were: Y1 - 55%, Y2 - 45%, Y3 - 40%. If none of those hit, you get two SRPs.
(2) the number 20 pick in Y1, guaranteed

I’m taking choice #1 every time.

So from that POV, the TOR pick is right on schedule.

It's why I've been saying it's a great trade no matter how it turns out . . . but, given who they Spurs are dealing with, when it doesn't convey this year, the pick should immediately be made available in any trade of significance they discuss this off season.

[CGD]

It's why I've been saying it's a great trade no matter how it turns out . . . but, given who they Spurs are dealing with, when it doesn't convey this year, the pick should immediately be made available in any trade of significance they discuss this off season.

I think it will have more value this way to be honest. A “potential 2025 lottery ticket” etc

[baseline bum]

And the raps are 7th now with more than 60% for the pick to convey, we repeat and repeat this but some are pretty crazy there.

68.04% chance to convey if Toronto finishes 7th worst

[buttsR4rebounding]

68.04% chance to convey if Toronto finishes 7th worst

And on the outside closing fast is Brooklyn. Now just 2 losses ahead of Toronto…

[exstatic]

And on the outside closing fast is Brooklyn. Now just 2 losses ahead of Toronto…

With as little time left in the season as there is, I see this as just a two team battle for 6/7. I don’t see either dropping past Brooklyn, or climbing over Portland

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Yeah, they’re keeping their pick this year damn

[spursparker9]

If Toronto keep the top 6 protected pick, this will be carried over to next year draft for Spurs again right?

[exstatic]

If Toronto keep the top 6 protected pick, this will be carried over to next year draft for Spurs again right?

Two more years after this one.

[duncan2150]

Huge game for us against the grizzlies tonight and toronto playing the wizards tomorrow

[onechance87]

we must beat memphis today

[exstatic]

we must beat memphis today

The problem with that is that Charlotte is breathing down OUR necks, only two games back.

[duncan2150]

The problem with that is that Charlotte is breathing down OUR necks, only two games back.

We will pass charlotte imo

[scott]

Honestly don't care if we pass CHA. The 4% difference at a Top-4 pick isn't something to be worried about in this shit draft.

[baseline bum]

Yeah, they’re keeping their pick this year damn

Only a 46% chance they keep it if they finish sixth worst.

[BatManu20]

The problem with that is that Charlotte is breathing down OUR necks, only two games back.

And they have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA lol. We'll definitely pass them tbh.

[ismael-robert]

They control their own destiny...they control what they win n dont...they won't win more than Charlotte cause they'll strategically ensure it...be dumb to do or think otherwise...look at the crap they pulled tonight that allowed Memphis to lap Toronto

[exstatic]

And they have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA lol. We'll definitely pass them tbh.

Are you even watching Spurs games?

[FutureMan]

This pick is the perfect personality test.

Pessimist - this pick won’t convey this year
Optimist - this pick will definitely convey this year
Realist - at this point odds are that it will convey this year but if not it’s very likely to convey in the future

[Splits]

lol Craptors have double the wins as the Wiz and are getting +6.5 tonight

[The Truth #6]

I'm not really a math guy, but I imagine that us losing helps keep Toronto from getting lower, so as disappointing as the loss was last night, in the long-term it's probably a good thing. Wait, but then Memphis was 7. Nevermind?

[Splits]

nice job Toronto.

[exstatic]

I'm not really a math guy, but I imagine that us losing helps keep Toronto from getting lower, so as disappointing as the loss was last night, in the long-term it's probably a good thing. Wait, but then Memphis was 7. Nevermind?

They’re not going to drop to 5. Portland is too prepared to hold their spot, and saw them coming in the rear view mirror. There isn’t enough time left. Memphis doesn’t seem to care, so Toronto probably finishes at #6 before the lottery. 56% chance at the pick, 29% chance of it being #7.

[TVI]

Yeah, they’re keeping their pick this year damn

Mathematically, there’s a 54% chance that the Spurs get the pick if they stay at 6, and a 68% chance if they fall back to 7.

[Splits]

Mathematically, there’s a 54% chance that the Spurs get the pick if they stay at 6, and a 68% chance if they fall back to 7.

they'll stay at 6. So Spurs chances of getting the pick are about the same as an NFL kicker hitting a 57 yard FG

[exstatic]

they'll stay at 6. So Spurs chances of getting the pick are about the same as an NFL kicker hitting a 57 yard FG

In year one, I’ll take the slim odds/huge payoff track.

[slick'81]

Hopefully spurs stay lucky

[Splits]

Raps down 3 with 4 to play.... give up a 10-0 run

[Seventyniner]

At least the Blazers aren't screwing around. They won't win another game unless it's by accident. I bet they sit their top 6 guys against the Wiz and Hornets in a couple weeks.

Hopefully the Grizz lose out and the Raps fluke their way into a W along the way.

[objective]

Only obvious 'winnable' game left for Toronto is Washington in the last 10

So don't be surprised by them ending the season on a 21 game losing streak

And they'll pull bigger stunts next year in a better draft.

[Atl Spur]

Only obvious 'winnable' game left for Toronto is Washington in the last 10

So don't be surprised by them ending the season on a 21 game losing streak

And they'll pull bigger stunts next year in a better draft.

Scottie B won’t demand a trade??? lol

[Knoxxx]

Yes for the thousandth time the math on TOR being at the 6 or 7th worst lotto ball spot is not much different. And the 5 teams in front of them are “entrenched” re worse record.

[exstatic]

Did a little research on TaT, and for the 5 drafts using the current flattened odds, the #6 finisher has drafted 9,8,7,7,6. That’s better than the overall odds of them staying at 6, which are only 8.6%. They have decent odds at top 4, 37.2%, but that not a huge difference from spot #7, 32%, so I’m good with Toronto finishing the year at the #6 position.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Did a little research on TaT, and for the 5 drafts using the current flattened odds, the #6 finisher has drafted 9,8,7,7,6. That’s better than the overall odds of them staying at 6, which are only 8.6%. They have decent odds at top 4, 37.2%, but that not a huge difference from spot #7, 32%, so I’m good with Toronto finishing the year at the #6 position.

Nice find!

[spurraider21]

Past history doesn’t matter at all. Just look at the odds.

[exstatic]

Past history doesn’t matter at all. Just look at the odds.

The major difference in the odds between 6 and 7 is that if they are at 7 and stay there, we get the pick,but if they are at 6 and stay, Toronto keeps the pick. The odds of them staying at 6 (8.6%) are smaller than the odds of them winning the lottery (9.0%) Is that good enough for you?

I’ve said all along that in year one, I’d rather roll the dice on getting pick #7, and Toronto finishing at 6 gives us better odds (29.8%) than Toronto finishing at 7 (19.7%).

[Ariel]

With 9 games to go, these are the current lottery standings:

#) TEAM: WINS
---------------------


Detroit: 12
Washington: 14
Spurs: 17
Charlotte: 18 (1 game pending)
Portland: 19 (8 losses in a row)
Toronto: 23 (12 losses in a row)
Memphis: 24
Brooklyn: 28

I think it's fair to say:


Detroit and Washington will be 1-2
Spurs, Charlotte and Portland will be 3-5
Toronto and Memphis will be 6-7

Given that Portland (not playing Grant, Simmons, Ayton, Thybulle, Brogdon and Sharpe) and Toronto are tanking their asses off (some injuries, a lot of them quite dubious), they might not win another game. That means Toronto likely finishes 6th (54% chance the pick conveys) and if the Spurs win 3 more games they might end up 5th.

The remaining games are as follows:


vs NY
vs GSW
@ Denver
@ NO
vs Philly
@ Memphis
@ OKC
vs Denver
vs Detroit

I think it's likely Detroit wants to win the last one since they'd have secured last place by then, that would leave Memphis as the most winnable game followed by Golden State, so Pop might want to work his magic to ensure a single win, 2 at most, which should be enough for shared 3rd place at worst.

[Knoxxx]

It’s definitely time to stop winning. I’d say Wemby, Sochan, Vassel all turned an ankle v Utah.

[John B]

It’s definitely time to stop winning. I’d say Wemby, Sochan, Vassel all turned an ankle v Utah.

Play Sochan at PG again!

[MultiTroll]

Play Sochan at PG again!
:lol

[spurraider21]

Nah fuck it. Get some wins. Good for the guys to go out on a positive note and find successful formulas

[Splits]

Nah fuck it. Get some wins. Good for the guys to go out on a positive note and find successful formulas

Grab your ankles, I'll give you a successful formula

[heyheymymy]

Nah fuck it. Get some wins. Good for the guys to go out on a positive note and find successful formulas

Wins are good for the club in terms of ticket sales next year too. Good for business.

[exstatic]

They won, because Charlotte had already goofed, and won their game. Otherwise, Pop puts the ball in Malaki’s hands to bring up the court,and turnovers ensue. He’s decent enough in the half court when creating space for himself, but those cross court passes bringing the ball up are a ready made turnover. That’s the ‘tell’ if Pop wants the game or not.

[TXstbobcat]

Charlotte just shut down La Mello for the rest of the season.

[pad300]

Charlotte just shut down La Mello for the rest of the season.

I wonder if that will work out for them. Micic is not a dominant physical specimen, but he can play some ball. Might be that handing the team over to him leads to more wins, not less.

[exstatic]

Charlotte just shut down La Mello for the rest of the season.

Either Lamelo is the biggest china doll in years, or Charlotte is the tankingest team since Philly.

[slick'81]

Hornets never making the playoffs :lmao

[Seventyniner]

Either Lamelo is the biggest china doll in years, or Charlotte is the tankingest team since last year's Spurs.

Fixed.

[TXstbobcat]

Either Lamelo is the biggest china doll in years, or Charlotte is the tankingest team since Philly.

I would say both of those are correct.

[MultiTroll]

4th Qtr
Pistons 16
Wizards 12

What a tank battle.
Wiz were determined to get that L.

[CGD]

Hornets never making the playoffs :lmao

Not with LaMelo’s ass.

[exstatic]

Memphis waking up a few games too late. Orlando went in with no lube tonight, 118-88.

[onechance87]

raptors doing everything in their power to keep tanking....Holding out rj barret and iq out for conditioning lol
And yall had stupid muthafckers on this site saying thats not who they are lol
Expect them to do this next couple of years as well.

[DAF86]

raptors doing everything in their power to keep tanking....Holding out rj barret and iq out for conditioning lol
And yall had stupid muthafckers on this site saying thats not who they are lol
Expect them to do this next couple of years as well.

If they are gonna do that for the next three seasons, might as well trade Barnes, Barrett and any decent player they have, tbh.

[Mal]

This pick will convey if somebody jumps Toronto and Spurs. I`ll be fine picking 4th and 7th

[onechance87]

If they are gonna do that for the next three seasons, might as well trade Barnes, Barrett and any decent player they have, tbh.

and im sure they will...Think they will trade poelti and brown for sure next year if they struggle
to make the playoffs.

[td4mvp2k]

didn't dallas do this same **** last year and no penalty... its a joke :lol

[scott]

didn't dallas do this same **** last year and no penalty... its a joke :lol

Mavs were fined $750k, which isn’t enough to deter tanking on its own. It will be interesting to see if the league escalates fines from here.

[TXstbobcat]

Memphis takes down the Pistons tonight

[onechance87]

Memphis takes down the Pistons tonight

pistons are so worthless

[Knoxxx]

This pick will convey if somebody jumps Toronto and Spurs. I`ll be fine picking 4th and 7th

I'm looking for 1st and 7th, baby!!!

[objective]

Memphis 2 wins up, that's basically Toronto at 6 set in stone

[onechance87]

I'm looking for 1st and 7th, baby!!!

only like 25 percent chance it conveys at 7th

[TXstbobcat]

only like 25 percent chance it conveys at 7th

at the 6 spot now raptors will have a 45.8% chance of keeping the pick.

29.8% we get it as the 7th pick.
20.5% we get it as the 8th pick
3.7% we get it as the 9th pick.

[Splits]

Memphis takes down the Pistons tonight

disaster

[onechance87]

it will suck if it comes down to one game for raptors and memphis.The one game we let memphis win against us
last week.

[exstatic]

only like 25 percent chance it conveys at 7th

29.8%, the best odds of landing pick 7 at any position. Even finishing 7th only gives you a 19.7% chance of holding the pick position.

[exstatic]

disaster

They were already behind Toronto, and unlikely to catch them. They fucked up a month ago by going on a heater, not tonight.

[exstatic]

it will suck if it comes down to one game for raptors and memphis.The one game we let memphis win against us
last week.

Nah, Memphis sealed their fate a month ago. They had a chance to see Toronto in their rear view mirror, and dump over performing gleaguers for worse ones.

[slick'81]

Anyone could see this coming

[JPB]

I wonder if that will work out for them. Micic is not a dominant physical specimen, but he can play some ball. Might be that handing the team over to him leads to more wins, not less.

Lost 3 (blowouts) in a row with Micic starting, who is their (unconscious) tank commander shooting 28% on 3 this season. He can pass but can't shoot, which is a problem in today's NBA for a PG.

[exstatic]

Toronto is driving the agenda, right now. They are pressuring Portland (but won’t get there at this point, so, why?) who is pressuring both us and Charlotte. I guess once it’s official, and they can’t move up, they’ll take their foot off the gas?

[mystargtr34]

I’m at peace with the Raps getting the 6th worst record and spurs having a 54% chance at the puck falling outside the top 6. That was inevitable a month ago when Barnes went down and the Raps decided to tank rather than get the main guys reps to close out the season, and the Grizzlies kept playing hard and trying to win.

With the Spurs own pick, hopefully they can stay in the 3rd spot. Hornets and Blazers play each other in two nights so that’s good that one has to take a W. Hopefully it’s the hornets to get them
To 19 wins. The Blazers then play the Wiz so hopefully they can get that W and move to 20 wins.

[SpurSpike]

Quickley and Barrett should be returning today, could help Toronto win some games.

[exstatic]

Quickley and Barrett should be returning today, could help Toronto win some games.

There’s really no reason for them to dump any more games. Memphis isn’t pressuring them in any real way, and they’re too far back to catch Portland.

[Mugen]

Anyone could see this coming

Not the Sniff Crew apparently :lol

[onechance87]

Quickley and Barrett should be returning today, could help Toronto win some games.

on min restriction bro.And gary trent is out for rest lol

[LeBowen]

Tbh, it's hillarious how people see this draft as the worst ever in draft topic and then complain we won't get another pick in this topic. :lol

If the draft is as weak as it looks, we're better off not getting another pick this year.
Especially since having an extra rookie would decrease the chances of getting another actual NBA player.

[onechance87]

Tbh, it's hillarious how people see this draft as the worst ever in draft topic and then complain we won't get another pick in this topic. :lol

If the draft is as weak as it looks, we're better off not getting another pick this year.
Especially since having an extra rookie would decrease the chances of getting another actual NBA player.

This draft is shit...But the projeceted top 15 players in this draft would still be upgrades over guys like branham,tre and champ
and others in our shit roster.Thats how bad our team is.

[exstatic]

Tbh, it's hillarious how people see this draft as the worst ever in draft topic and then complain we won't get another pick in this topic. :lol

If the draft is as weak as it looks, we're better off not getting another pick this year.
Especially since having an extra rookie would decrease the chances of getting another actual NBA player.

Yeah, except last time they were in the Lottery, they followed it with being the 6 seed in the east the next year, and their pick, which conveyed to us as #20 via the Thad Young trade, was used to pick Malaki Branham. Give me a high pick in a supposedly bad draft over a 20s pick in a supposed good draft, any day.

[heyheymymy]

And I'd still rather go ahead and get TOR to convey now and get it over with knowing we got max value.

And I'd still prefer #7 in a weak draft over potentially #15 or so in a better one.

I don't know. Not against TOR not conveying. We still have 2 more tries and adding one rookie might be easier than 2. And 2025 draft def looks deeper.

[heyheymymy]

Exactly ex

I guess I want TOR now at a top ten pick than risk another year where they may be better and the pick floats up to #15 or #20 like with Branham. Despite arguments being what they are about TOR maybe not being able to play better in the next few seasons than they did now.

[exstatic]

Exactly ex

I guess I want TOR now at a top ten pick than risk another year where they may be better and the pick floats up to #15 or #20 like with Branham. Despite arguments being what they are about TOR maybe not being able to play better in the next few seasons than they did now.

They were actually playing well with the new guys, right up until both Jak and Scotty went down.

[heyheymymy]

They were actually playing well with the new guys, right up until both Jak and Scotty went down.

And never know what they do in the offseason. Not saying they will add anyone and haven't looked at the salary table or anything but 2 more seasons is a long time and there's no guarantee someone won't come on, the group won't gel, or an existing player won't go next level. I'm not keen on betting against Scotty Barnes either.

Yeah rather just pull the asset now and be done with it. Spurs are still rebuilding and might be easier to incorporate raw young players now and roll him into the concept sooner rather than later when SA might be contending and the roster is more set in stone. Perhaps just getting a big blob of youth all on an approximately similar timeline and grow up with them altogether built in-house from the ground up.

Would you rather have a Castle or a Knecht at #7 or a Branham at #20? Stronger selection range in a weaker 24 draft talent is offset by potentially weaker selection range in a stronger draft of 25 or 26.

[R. DeMurre]

Nearly every fan absolutely hates it when other teams tank, but then quietly justifies it for their own favorite... pretty funny to watch it happen every year across the league and internet.

[rascal]

Anyone could see this coming

Go back in this thread and see how many didn't see Toronto tanking.

[jjspur]

I'm still thinking how we can trade the Charlotte pick that's owed to us. How much longer do we have for that shitty pick ?

[TXstbobcat]

I'm still thinking how we can trade the Charlotte pick that's owed to us. How much longer do we have for that shitty pick ?

we get 1 more shot at it next season and then it becomes 2 2nd rounders. Unlikely to convey so not much trade value.

[mo7888]

I'm still thinking how we can trade the Charlotte pick that's owed to us. How much longer do we have for that shitty pick ?

What bobcat said.... there's not a lot of value there, but it's probably a little more than two individual 2nds for a couple reasons. 1) they should be good 2nd's because Charlotte sucks, and 2) the receiving FO can sell it as a 1st to casuals who don't pay attention.

[Bruno]

A consequence of Spurs not getting the pick would be Spurs having an extra $6M in cap space this summer.

I rather have the pick this year but, if it don't convey, it won't be the end of the world.

[TD 21]

This draft is shit...But the projeceted top 15 players in this draft would still be upgrades over guys like branham,tre and champ
and others in our shit roster.Thats how bad our team is.

That, bird in the hand and the fact that the Craptors haven't tried to have it convey this year, when the next two drafts supposedly project as significantly stronger, should tell you all you need to know about their plans for the next two years.

Their "mid-build" should organically have them in a similar position next season, when they can get to a similar point, tank and keep it.


Nearly every fan absolutely hates it when other teams tank, but then quietly justifies it for their own favorite... pretty funny to watch it happen every year across the league and internet.

I'm not against tanking in general, more so this specific form. The league needs to try to curtail it because it's turning certain trades into essentially bad faith agreements.

The fact that the Craptors can conceivably weasel their way from a mid lottery pick to two 2nds via shady behavior should not be okay.

[Seventyniner]

I'm not against tanking in general, more so this specific form. The league needs to try to curtail it because it's turning certain trades into essentially bad faith agreements.

The fact that the Craptors can conceivably weasel their way from a mid lottery pick to two 2nds via shady behavior should not be okay.

Tanking to avoid sending a pick has been commonplace for so long that imo the bad faith argument doesn't hold up. A team who trades for a protected pick goes in knowing that it can be in the other team's best interest to tank in order for it not to convey.

If the league could ever somehow remove the incentive to tank from the draft order that might change. The wheel is an elegant solution to the tanking problem, but there is no fair way to get from here to there; some team would have to wait 30 years for their next chance to draft #1.

[TD 21]

Tanking to avoid sending a pick has been commonplace for so long that imo the bad faith argument doesn't hold up. A team who trades for a protected pick goes in knowing that it can be in the other team's best interest to tank in order for it not to convey.

If the league could ever somehow remove the incentive to tank from the draft order that might change. The wheel is an elegant solution to the tanking problem, but there is no fair way to get from here to there; some team would have to wait 30 years for their next chance to draft #1.

It's one thing if it's a one off, but three years (which, as I alluded to, I believe they're about to pull) is ridiculous and the Spurs knowing the possibility beforehand doesn't make it any better.

Tanking is fine (how else are non glamor markets supposed to get a superstar or star?) as long as it doesn't become too extreme.

[CGD]

What bobcat said.... there's not a lot of value there, but it's probably a little more than two individual 2nds for a couple reasons. 1) they should be good 2nd's because Charlotte sucks, and 2) the receiving FO can sell it as a 1st to casuals who don't pay attention.

Like WAS, we should also see how new management at CHA impacts their trajectory.