Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[baseline bum]

Spurs either taking Topic (6’7) or Matas Buzellis (6’’10) . Two taller g/f that can shoot. Bank on it

Neither of them can shoot

[JPB]

The point that I'm making is that even though those alternatives seem like they're reliably going to be there, it tends not to work out during actual drafts. A team may not want to give them a future first for 28, and if we're talking about seconds and cash, it's not hard at all to see why they'd prefer the route they went. What do you mean "expedite"? Quickley is expiring and Barnes is in his swing year. This is an important stretch of games to set the groundwork for what the 2024-2025 Raptors will be.



They do have a fair bit of draft capital, and this year is a key example of that. I'm not Bod -- I get what you mean by a lotto pick, but you're overrating the importance of it. The Raptors will have their chances to get a middle-draft pick by taking on money this summer. So if they can trade a ticket for players they consider useful now while keeping the option open to buy a third or fourth pick from a team like SA later, where is the opportunity cost?



The point is that it's easy to rationalize it. I can't make you agree, but rather than trying to use the lack of criticism to point to some systemic bias toward Toronto, it might be a sign that the trade is not that strange. As I've pointed out, I haven't been against making low-cost moves for key vets at any point in this process. Maybe the Spurs have always had some special context. But you're much more likely to catch mean thinking they aren't being aggressive enough in adding talent than me wanting them to be more conservative.



Funnily enough, the Pistons did make a similar trade when they acquired Simone Fontecchio for the projected 34th-overall pick this year. It turns out that it's not really a big deal. Would Chicago get criticized for trading a pick they don't have for a win-now player in a season in which their best player is already out for the season? Yes. Because the context is different.



It might seem weird to some folks here, but the Spurs are fine. Basically every team that "waits too long" or "tries to stay on the treadmill" ends up being fine. The Sixers were a treadmill team before Hinkie. The Grizzlies couldn't let go of their old Grit 'n' Grind players. Dallas kept trying to get juice from the Dirk fruit long past when it became futile. If the Raptors are the DeRozan-era Spurs, then they'll be fine too. Maybe that means in three or four years they get a bunch of unprotected picks for Barnes and some more for Quickley and Barrett. Maybe they figure out how to make it work like Miami did around Bam. Even if they eventually have to tank, the only difference will be that fans with certain values will have felt like previous years were somehow wasted.

I'm actually not a huge fan of most of the moves Ujuri makes, so I will resist the accusation that I'm actually defending them. But I don't actually have any hard feelings concerning the Raptors, who at this point have given SA a decent haul in trades. Ujuri has huge blind spots for African or Africa-adjacent players which causes him to fetishize low-EROI prospects, with Agbaji potentially being just another such attempt. I didn't really have Quickley as a important player to get, so I think acquiring him for OG was a sub-optimal deal. I think Wright's been styling on him for a couple of years now too. But I will speak for moves that he makes that align with moves I wish the Spurs would make As I said, I would've liked the team to use the Charlotte pick to bring in a rotation player or have been in the O'Neal bidding. I can't fault a GM who uses a superfluous asset get two guys he thinks will be good for his team.

Sixers initiated their epic "process" and started to tank the 2013-2014 season, culminating in 2015-2016 with that 10-72 worse ever record.

10 years later, they still have to go back to the Finals (last appearance in 2001).

[scott]

Hot take but I'd rather add Filipowski than Sarr

[mo7888]

Hot take but I'd rather add Filipowski than Sarr

Yup... that take is smokin hot...

[TD 21]

The point that I'm making is that even though those alternatives seem like they're reliably going to be there, it tends not to work out during actual drafts. A team may not want to give them a future first for 28, and if we're talking about seconds and cash, it's not hard at all to see why they'd prefer the route they went. What do you mean "expedite"? Quickley is expiring and Barnes is in his swing year. This is an important stretch of games to set the groundwork for what the 2024-2025 Raptors will be.



They do have a fair bit of draft capital, and this year is a key example of that. I'm not Bod -- I get what you mean by a lotto pick, but you're overrating the importance of it. The Raptors will have their chances to get a middle-draft pick by taking on money this summer. So if they can trade a ticket for players they consider useful now while keeping the option open to buy a third or fourth pick from a team like SA later, where is the opportunity cost?



The point is that it's easy to rationalize it. I can't make you agree, but rather than trying to use the lack of criticism to point to some systemic bias toward Toronto, it might be a sign that the trade is not that strange. As I've pointed out, I haven't been against making low-cost moves for key vets at any point in this process. Maybe the Spurs have always had some special context. But you're much more likely to catch mean thinking they aren't being aggressive enough in adding talent than me wanting them to be more conservative.



Funnily enough, the Pistons did make a similar trade when they acquired Simone Fontecchio for the projected 34th-overall pick this year. It turns out that it's not really a big deal. Would Chicago get criticized for trading a pick they don't have for a win-now player in a season in which their best player is already out for the season? Yes. Because the context is different.



It might seem weird to some folks here, but the Spurs are fine. Basically every team that "waits too long" or "tries to stay on the treadmill" ends up being fine. The Sixers were a treadmill team before Hinkie. The Grizzlies couldn't let go of their old Grit 'n' Grind players. Dallas kept trying to get juice from the Dirk fruit long past when it became futile. If the Raptors are the DeRozan-era Spurs, then they'll be fine too. Maybe that means in three or four years they get a bunch of unprotected picks for Barnes and some more for Quickley and Barrett. Maybe they figure out how to make it work like Miami did around Bam. Even if they eventually have to tank, the only difference will be that fans with certain values will have felt like previous years were somehow wasted.

I'm actually not a huge fan of most of the moves Ujuri makes, so I will resist the accusation that I'm actually defending them. But I don't actually have any hard feelings concerning the Raptors, who at this point have given SA a decent haul in trades. Ujuri has huge blind spots for African or Africa-adjacent players which causes him to fetishize low-EROI prospects, with Agbaji potentially being just another such attempt. I didn't really have Quickley as a important player to get, so I think acquiring him for OG was a sub-optimal deal. I think Wright's been styling on him for a couple of years now too. But I will speak for moves that he makes that align with moves I wish the Spurs would make As I said, I would've liked the team to use the Charlotte pick to bring in a rotation player or have been in the O'Neal bidding. I can't fault a GM who uses a superfluous asset get two guys he thinks will be good for his team.

Fine, but again, what's the rush to find out? That's what I mean by expedite. The '24-'25 Craptors are going to look an awful lot like the current iteration, which is to say a treadmill team.

At least with an organization like the Bulls, it's because it's believed ownership won't give them the autonomy to re-build.

The opportunity cost is one more lottery ticket rushed out the door so that they can chase being closer to 20th than 25th in the standings.

It's not systemic bias, it's they were/are an organization with an inferiority complex and a thirst for attention, so they played the game within' the game with media big wigs and this is part of what they get in return for it.

Yeah and the Pistons have predictably been racked over the coals for their move.

In a literal sense, sure. Wait long enough and odds are every franchise will eventually be "fine", if by that you mean good. You can still do logical things to increase the odds of lessening the time until you get to that point though.

The difference between the Spurs and Craptors is, the former lucked into a clear franchise player in the making and loaded up on quantity and quality of draft capital beforehand while already having one, young malleable starter in house.

They have none of those things and are deluding themselves because they can't stand being out of the spotlight.

[baseline bum]

Hot take but I'd rather add Filipowski than Sarr

Even then you still take Sarr and then trade him for asset(s) and a later pick for Filipowski

[BackHome]

If that where to happen I would do a trade with Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington - Trade places this year and give us option to trade with them next year with no protections

[mudyez]

If that where to happen I would do a trade with Charlotte, Detroit, and Washington - Trade places this year and give us option to trade with them next year with no protections

Nice idea, but with Flagg next year, I doubt anyone bites without at least #1 protection.

[scott]

Even then you still take Sarr and then trade him for asset(s) and a later pick for Filipowski

Yeah, I'm not saying I think Filipowski should be picked over Sarr... just that I'd rather have Filipowski on the Spurs.

[Ariel]

Nice idea, but with Flagg next year, I doubt anyone bites without at least #1 protection.
Sure, but there are lots of other options as well. With the new rules coming into play, contenders without assets¨(Phoenix, Dallas, Milwaukee, etc) will have to get creative in order to improve and the Spurs may find opportunities to put their surpluss of assets to good use, for instance buying swap options for picks, splitting a late lottery pick into multiple future ones (like NYK did when they moved the 11th pick in the 2022 draft to OKC), attaching bad money with a pick in exchange for assets and/or a lesser pick, etc. For instance, say the Spurs want to get rid of Zach Collins in the offseason, Washington is trying to go for a home run but needs more shots, they could offer Zach Collins + Toronto's pick for Deni Avdija + Kispert (with additional value/filler going either way to round it up) or other such teams. Of course there are lots of examples, but my point is there's IMO a very real chance of drawing value even from a perceived weak draft.

[exstatic]

Sure, but there are lots of other options as well. With the new rules coming into play, contenders without assets¨(Phoenix, Dallas, Milwaukee, etc) will have to get creative in order to improve and the Spurs may find opportunities to put their surpluss of assets to good use, for instance buying swap options for picks, splitting a late lottery pick into multiple future ones (like NYK did when they moved the 11th pick in the 2022 draft to OKC), attaching bad money with a pick in exchange for assets and/or a lesser pick, etc. For instance, say the Spurs want to get rid of Zach Collins in the offseason, Washington is trying to go for a home run but needs more shots, they could offer Zach Collins + Toronto's pick for Deni Avdija + Kispert (with additional value/filler going either way to round it up) or other such teams. Of course there are lots of examples, but my point is there's IMO a very real chance of drawing value even from a perceived weak draft.

Why would we want Washington’s failed lottery picks? I’d rather make 5 first round selections in 2025.

[exstatic]

Nice idea, but with Flagg next year, I doubt anyone bites without at least #1 protection.

They can’t have their cake and eat it, too. If we’re trading a #1 pick,they get no #1 protection next year.

[Ariel]

Why would we want Washington’s failed lottery picks? I’d rather make 5 first round selections in 2025.
Avdija is a nice all around role player who just turned 23 and has been steadily improving, he's signed to an EXCELLENT contract (4 year extension averaging about 13M with a descending structure), and Kispert is a very good shooter on a rookie contract. Also, if any lottery pick that doesn't become a star is a failure, any current Spur not named Wemby qualifies as such. I was just proposing an example of an alternative to using the pick if all Spurs' targets are gone (which includes dumping Zach Collins' contract) that goes to show the Spurs don't need to settle someone they don't really like, they could of course roll the pick over as well. Sometimes we're fixated on buying "lottery tickets" but building a winning team often includes other ways of acquiring talent beyond that.

[TD 21]

Interesting fake trade proposal. I like it conceptually, as far as getting younger veterans who are plug and play and won't break the bank.

My only concern would be the negative overlap (spacing) of the Sochan-Avdija pairing, though they could mostly split minutes.

[CGD]

I’ve always liked Deni, but he plays basically the same role as Sochan. Definitely don’t need both.

[Mr. Body]

For those wanting the Toronto pick, Hornets did us a solid and bumped Memphis off at home. Toronto lost on a back-to-back to Cleveland, who is beating everyone, leaving them still a game up on the Grizz.

We face Toronto on Monday.

[onechance87]

For those wanting the Toronto pick, Hornets did us a solid and bumped Memphis off at home. Toronto lost on a back-to-back to Cleveland, who is beating everyone, leaving them still a game up on the Grizz.

We face Toronto on Monday.

The game i will maybe be upset if we win.

[TD 21]

I’ve always liked Deni, but he plays basically the same role as Sochan. Definitely don’t need both.

It's about creating internal competition. Avdija is better than Sochan, but also 3 years older. In the interim, the former should inherit the latter's role and the latter should inherit Osman's.

See how they progress for 1-2 seasons, then make a decision if need be.

[Ariel]

I see Deni as a more polished, higher floor, better shooting version of Sochan. That isn't an archetype where more than one player on your roster is redundant (like, say, strictly rim runner C). Also, Sochan is a prospect, one I actually like very much, but whose ultimate fate will depend on how his shot (and offense overall) comes along (it's improving but far from certain), it isn't even clear he'll be with the team past his extension elegibility date if both he and the team don't come to an understanding. And when a team is so thin at every position as the Spurs, to the point you don't have a single clear long term starter anywhere other than C, you can't afford to pass up talent based on uncertain projections. Personally, I'd add as much proven young talent as possible, and by this I mean guys who are already contributing and project to grow. What's the worst than can happen? Sochan blows up and you have 2 good players at one position? That's a great problem to have, whether to play them, or to use them as currency when the missing piece becomes available. As long as the salary and the acquisition cost is reasonable, the options that flexibility can give you can't be bad.

Let me give you another example: lots of people are enamored with either Risacher or Cody Williams. Personally I think they're on paper probably the best long term fit, but I'm far from certain. They also seem to be the exact archetype Presti salivates over (big wings with all around skill set that can shoot), and he's known to overpay when he sees something he likes. Say you can draft either of them with one of the picks (even the Spurs own). Wouldn't you consider, say, Cason Wallace + 2027 best of OKC/Clippers pick? Cason Wallace doesn't project as a star, but he's a very solid 2 way young guard who can shoot, on a rookie scale contract. If Presti becomes infatuated, he might go for it. There are lots of options that the Spurs could explore beyond just settling with picking whomever is higher on their board, even if they're not known for taking these chances (like Dallas is, for instance).

Or course I'm not saying any of this is likely to happen and it's more of an excercise, but I guess I'm saying I'd like to see them try something like that rather than settling, unless they truly love the player they're getting.

[mo7888]

It's about creating internal competition. Avdija is better than Sochan, but also 3 years older. In the interim, the former should inherit the latter's role and the latter should inherit Osman's.

See how they progress for 1-2 seasons, then make a decision if need be.

Just in general, this is the way I think we should build this team. Get productive role players on good contracts here and there (Deni, Reaves, GTJ, etc) that have a specific skill and use the higher draft picks for higher upside players that have a chance to be your #2 or #3 or trade them for a star.

Having those role players on value contracts (under $20M) creates competition and builds a roster that's more attractive for a star if one comes available.

[TD 21]

Barring one of Avdija or Sochan becoming a good enough shooter for the defense to respect them (Vassell and Kispert would probably be the only two rotation players to fit this description), they would have to eventually choose between them, but that's fine.

If Sochan can't hit or exceed Avdija's level (low end starter), then he'd become part of the eventual package for star X, presuming they're unable to land another one in the draft first.

[Chinook]

I'm a big fan of the team having open competition. I am not a big fan of the Spurs using a lotto pick on MLE players. When I'm talking about Collins' contract being whatever in the context of an aggressive trade, I mean in a superstar trade where the Spurs are already dropping unprotected picks and the other team is rebuilding. That other team isn't really going to care if Collins has two years on his deal. A team like Washington converting role-players into questionable salary WILL care, and the Collins part of the trade would cost more. Now it's not clear that the Wizards would even do the deal in the first place, but the Spurs have the cap space and expiring contracts to do the trade without dumping Collins. Doing that would be smarter, because 1) Zach might well play better and improve his value and 2) The Spurs still need contracts to make a bigger trade later.

Dumping Collins should absolutely not be the team's priority this year UNLESS they are going to need the space to make a major signing. The difference between how we as fans viewed Collins' deal in October rather than now is because he's not playing as well as he used to. He didn't suffer a(nother) major injury or get into legal trouble. The Spurs should look into getting a better center than Collins, but outside of a major acquisition, they are better off letting Collins compete for the job rather than trying to sell as low as possible.

Most of us feel the Spurs will have to make a big deal eventually, whether that's this summer or other the next three or four years. While it's possible they try for cap space, the modern NBA is more focused on trades than free agency. Collins' deal is meh now as ballast, but in 2025-2026, it's an expiring. Avdija and Kispert would also moveable contracts, along with Johnson. Collins' mid-sized deal has more utility than cap space.

So I don't really think it's a good idea to sell the Raptors pick for a trade like this. I get that moving picks would be important if the pick rolls over to 2025. But I would prefer the Spurs to use the pick either on a major trade as mentioned above or to acquire a 2024 pick. Like maybe Toronto prefers 2025's draft so much that they'd trade their sixth-overall pick for their 2025 pick back and the Chicago or Charlotte pick.

[TD 21]

:lmao According to this board, they shouldn't spare a single asset on anything but the 1% of players that are perceived as not only good but "cultural" fits around here.

[Chinook]

I mean, I guess you could say that not agreeing with the team spending a lottery pick on MLE-level players just to dump a mid-sized deal is the same as saying they shouldn't spare a single asset on a non-elite player. But it would really weird to do that in response to a poster who was just talking about spending an asset on a less-than-1% player earlier in this same thread. Yeah, you could totally do that if you're so unwilling to defend your point that you think it's better to try to twist the opposing point to absurdity.

[TD 21]

I mean, I guess you could say that not agreeing with the team spending a lottery pick on MLE-level players just to dump a mid-sized deal is the same as saying they shouldn't spare a single asset on a non-elite player. But it would really weird to do that in response to a poster who was just talking about spending an asset on a less-than-1% player earlier in this same thread. Yeah, you could totally do that if you're so unwilling to defend your point that you think it's better to try to twist the opposing point to absurdity.

It was more a general comment (hence the non-quote), but since you're being defensive about it, it wouldn't have mattered the name(s) save for certain untouchable superstars. The usual suspects would have shot it down.

Collins' deal far exceeds mid sized. Given that bigs generally occupy one position and he brings precisely zero of the attributes teams usually covet out of it, it'll be difficult to move.

Of course, this is the kind of trade you'd only make right before the pick.

[Chinook]

It was more a general comment (hence the non-quote), but since you're being defensive about it, it wouldn't have mattered the name(s) save for certain untouchable superstars. The usual suspects would have shot it down.

We all know who would shoot down any trade and probably get after them too much for it even if their confidence in PATFO leaves them open to it. But that's not really where the conversation had been for a while.



Collins' deal far exceeds mid sized.

Not really. It's literally only 40 percent above the MLE and like 40 percent of his max threshold. To put it into perspective, if Zach were making as much this year as he will next year, he'd be the 102nd-highest-paid player in the league. When we're talking about trade ballast, he's well within the realm of mid-sized contracts. Johnson is too. Heck, Vassell is barely above that limit.


Given that bigs generally occupy one position and he brings precisely zero of the attributes teams usually covet out of it, it'll be difficult to move.

He's playing poorly, so he doesn't seem to have value on the court right now. He could figure it out and play to the level he's already shown. But even assuming he does, with only one year left on his deal after this upcoming season, no one's looking at him as ruining their salary cap. If the Spurs wanted to turn him into cap space, that would be hard. But as an example the Hawks wouldn't care in the context of a Young trade.

We're talking about a significantly worse contract being traded for a single heavily protected first just last year. Collins' two years wouldn't even be a sticking point for a team intending to tank. As I said before, some teams would care, like Washington might if they did that suggested trade. SA would be paying a premium to move Collins instead of using their cap space, which would be a bad idea because they would want Collins' contract to trade later anyway.

I think most of us wouldn't want the Spurs to extend Zach if they could reverse it. But now that it's done, they're in a new paradigm and should operate under that rather than trying to undo the signing with assets. They'll be fine with Collin's contract on the books, and they'll almost certainly plan to go into next season with Zach as their rotational center. Hopefully they have legit competition in mind, but with cap space, draft picks and exceptions, they have a lot of options to get that without making a panic trade that still encumbers their salary space.

[Mugen]

Need this L tonight, Go Raps Go!

[TD 21]

Not really. It's literally only 40 percent above the MLE and like 40 percent of his max threshold. To put it into perspective, if Zach were making as much this year as he will next year, he'd be the 102nd-highest-paid player in the league. When we're talking about trade ballast, he's well within the realm of mid-sized contracts. Johnson is too. Heck, Vassell is barely above that limit.



He's playing poorly, so he doesn't seem to have value on the court right now. He could figure it out and play to the level he's already shown. But even assuming he does, with only one year left on his deal after this upcoming season, no one's looking at him as ruining their salary cap. If the Spurs wanted to turn him into cap space, that would be hard. But as an example the Hawks wouldn't care in the context of a Young trade.

We're talking about a significantly worse contract being traded for a single heavily protected first just last year. Collins' two years wouldn't even be a sticking point for a team intending to tank. As I said before, some teams would care, like Washington might if they did that suggested trade. SA would be paying a premium to move Collins instead of using their cap space, which would be a bad idea because they would want Collins' contract to trade later anyway.

I think most of us wouldn't want the Spurs to extend Zach if they could reverse it. But now that it's done, they're in a new paradigm and should operate under that rather than trying to undo the signing with assets. They'll be fine with Collin's contract on the books, and they'll almost certainly plan to go into next season with Zach as their rotational center. Hopefully they have legit competition in mind, but with cap space, draft picks and exceptions, they have a lot of options to get that without making a panic trade that still encumbers their salary space.

:lmao Look at you, straining to avoiding agreeing. You're making a sweeping generalization about his contract that won't apply to him specifically.

This isn't some 3ish and Dish big wing like Hunter, who despite being a disappointment and injury prone, can still probably be mostly salary dumped.

You don't pay someone what they did Collins and have competition in mind. If he's here, he'll be handed the same role he's getting now and continue to be a drain on the team.

[scott]

I don't know what is so controversial around the fact that Collins is a negative asset at this point. Luckily, absent of him turning his game around (which I doubt), in about a year time he'll become at least a neutral asset as an expiring. The best part of Collins' deal is that it's short. It reminds me a lot of Evan Fournier's contract. This time a year ago, there was a lot of discussion about absorbing him into our cap space and getting compensated to do so. This year, he was more of a neutral asset. Same about Doug... you would have paid to dump him a year ago, this year he returns slightly positive value when combined with saving another team a little bit of money (Morris-Doug delta).

Zach is a negative asset, and you should try to not have negative assets. It's that simple.

It's also not the end of the world, but it is another mistake on this FO's record when evaluating their overall performance and skill level. Zach's deal is not a fireable offense, but it is one of many deals that leads me to not have much confidence in this FO at this time.

[objective]

Collins, Champagnie, and Branham all looked their best last season after the all star break during tank season when some teams stopped caring and other teams stopped caring about the Spurs and whether they won or lost as they were focused on the playoffs

Maybe those 3 scrubateers can turn things around later this season as a result and get some value back. And if any are to be moved, it would have to be in the summer because once a new season starts and teams try again they'll all reclaim their scrub crowns

[scott]

:lol scrubateers, love it

[Atl Spur]

I don't know what is so controversial around the fact that Collins is a negative asset at this point. Luckily, absent of him turning his game around (which I doubt), in about a year time he'll become at least a neutral asset as an expiring. The best part of Collins' deal is that it's short. It reminds me a lot of Evan Fournier's contract. This time a year ago, there was a lot of discussion about absorbing him into our cap space and getting compensated to do so. This year, he was more of a neutral asset. Same about Doug... you would have paid to dump him a year ago, this year he returns slightly positive value when combined with saving another team a little bit of money (Morris-Doug delta).

Zach is a negative asset, and you should try to not have negative assets. It's that simple.

It's also not the end of the world, but it is another mistake on this FO's record when evaluating their overall performance and skill level. Zach's deal is not a fireable offense, but it is one of many deals that leads me to not have much confidence in this FO at this time.

Every organization has at least one of these contracts; it’s just the business of basketball. His salary won’t impede or affect any potential move. Nothing burger.

[Chinook]

:lmao Look at you, straining to avoiding agreeing. You're making a sweeping generalization about his contract that won't apply to him specifically.

This isn't some 3ish and Dish big wing like Hunter, who despite being a disappointment and injury prone, can still probably be mostly salary dumped.

You don't pay someone what they did Collins and have competition in mind. If he's here, he'll be handed the same role he's getting now and continue to be a drain on the team.

Again, you're trying to laugh an argument off instead of actually engaging with it. You trying to talk about whether Collins is good or worth his contract demonstrates that you didn't understand my point at all. It's not "Collins is a good player, so they should keep him." It's that the Spurs need matching salary to make trades and Collins has a short-term midsized deal. He can make up to $25 Million by himself while also being acquireable by a team sending out an MLE player.. The flexibility that grants the team is more useful to a modern NBA team than $16.7 Million in cap space. The Spurs' current amount of space isn't enough to do anything major, so it doesn't behoove them to pay to free up a bit more.

This isn't complicated, but it's easy to miss if you spend your time laughing st posts that try to explain it.

[TD 21]

Again, you're trying to laugh an argument off instead of actually engaging with it. You trying to talk about whether Collins is good or worth his contract demonstrates that you didn't understand my point at all. It's not "Collins is a good player, so they should keep him." It's that the Spurs need matching salary to make trades and Collins has a short-term midsized deal. He can make up to $25 Million by himself while also being acquireable by a team sending out an MLE player.. The flexibility that grants the team is more useful to a modern NBA team than $16.7 Million in cap space. The Spurs' current amount of space isn't enough to do anything major, so it doesn't behoove them to pay to free up a bit more.

This isn't complicated, but it's easy to miss if you spend your time laughing st posts that try to explain it.

Yeah and they have Johnson, Jones and Graham for that.

Matching salary only applies if they player is easily movable; he won't be. You keep ignoring that with your sweeping generalization because as usual you're too busy condescending and playing smartest guy in the room.

[Chinook]

Yeah and they have Johnson, Jones and Graham for that.

Matching salary only applies if they player is easily movable; he won't be. You keep ignoring that with your sweeping generalization because as usual you're too busy condescending and playing smartest guy in the room.

That you constantly think I'm trying to make you look dumb says more about your insecurity than anything else.

They have Jones for that next year, but not in two years. They only have Graham for that next year if they guarantee his salary. Did you even try to think about this before you said it? They might prefer to not trade Johnson if they can use a different ballast instead. FFS man, they traded a useful player on an expiring contract for a guy they refuse to play who had two more years and $15 Million guaranteed in his contract beyond the trade year, and all they got were seconds. But you think that come next summer teamd are going to freak out about one additional year? It just shows a lack of knowledge of recent trades (or more likely a complete unwillingness to just admit you were wrong) on your part.

[objective]

Far fetched, but .... What if Atlanta was willing to move Trae Young but wanted zero salary back and just a giant 43 million trade exception

Spurs couldn't do it because of Collins. They'd have to dump someone for no salary, either a player they'd want to keep or they'd have to pay to get off money

Bottom line is they should have waited to see how he played with Wemby. They had his bird rights and few rivals with space and need for a center, not like 76ers were going to pay him.

[TD 21]

That you constantly think I'm trying to make you look dumb says more about your insecurity than anything else.

They have Jones for that next year, but not in two years. They only have Graham for that next year if they guarantee his salary. Did you even try to think about this before you said it? They might prefer to not trade Johnson if they can use a different ballast instead. FFS man, they traded a useful player on an expiring contract for a guy they refuse to play who had two more years and $15 Million guaranteed in his contract beyond the trade year, and all they got were seconds. But you think that come next summer teamd are going to freak out about one additional year? It just shows a lack of knowledge of recent trades (or more likely a complete unwillingness to just admit you were wrong) on your part.

Except you do it to virtually everyone all the time.

Do you really think I don't know that? Richardson made far less and was a player with far more utility.

You can continue throwing a tantrum all you want and I'll continue to believe that the only way they don't pay to get off of Collins, is if he's added to a Young trade, for example.

Something where they also get back Capela and the Hawks reap so much long term savings (in addition to the draft capital) that they didn't care about the extra year between the C's.

[JeffDuncan]

Far fetched, but .... What if Atlanta was willing to move Trae Young but wanted zero salary back and just a giant 43 million trade exception

Spurs couldn't do it because of Collins. They'd have to dump someone for no salary, either a player they'd want to keep or they'd have to pay to get off money

Bottom line is they should have waited to see how he played with Wemby. …


The thing about the Zollins contract is that because the roster is such a smoldering dumpwad, they didn’t have anybody else to pay.

Have you looked at the roster?

[objective]

The thing about the Zollins contract is that because the roster is such a smoldering dumpwad, they didn’t have anybody else to pay.

Have you looked at the roster?

He was already under contract for this year. I don't know why people keep going on and on about meeting a salary for floor with Collins when his number for this year didn't change.

They didn't have to pay him so much before seeing him out of tank season and next to Wemby.

[spurraider21]

He was already under contract for this year. I don't know why people keep going on and on about meeting a salary for floor with Collins when his number for this year didn't change.

They didn't have to pay him so much before seeing him out of tank season and next to Wemby.
tbh anybody who mentions "reaching the floor" as an argument in favor of a contract has no argument because its indistinguishable from paying you that money. see how great it was to pay objective 2/35? it helps us reach the floor. and gives us a salary to match in trades!

[objective]

Even if they decided to pay him the same money to get to the floor next season, they should have protected themselves by doing a Bruce Brown style deal. That guy could actually play, but it's the flexibility of his contract that made him good salary fodder for Indiana

Toronto could cut him and save on year 2
They could have moved him before the deadline was a functional expiring contract
They could decide to keep him and have him as an expiring next year

[Chinook]

Far fetched, but .... What if Atlanta was willing to move Trae Young but wanted zero salary back and just a giant 43 million trade exception.

What if Atlanta wanted 30 firsts too? That's not how trades work. No one has that kind of cap room, so that wouldn't be a make-or-break condition.


Bottom line is they should have waited to see how he played with Wemby. They had his bird rights and few rivals with space and need for a center, not like 76ers were going to pay him.

More importantly, no one is talking about whether the Spurs should've signed Collins to his extension. That's a completely different argument from whether the Spurs could trade him as part of a package.

[objective]

What if Atlanta wanted 30 firsts too? That's not how trades work. No one has that kind of cap room, so that wouldn't be a make-or-break condition.



More importantly, no one is talking about whether the Spurs should've signed Collins to his extension. That's a completely different argument from whether the Spurs could trade him as part of a package.

Considering the number of times I've seen multiple posters defend his deal by invoking the salary floor every week (like every conversation that gets recycled on a forum), I'd say people are talking about it

[objective]

What if Atlanta wanted 30 firsts too? That's not how trades work. No one has that kind of cap room, so that wouldn't be a make-or-break condition. .

No one has that kind of room?

Detroit has that kind of room. If they had never signed Collins to the extension, Spurs would be close, notsure. I could look it up to make sure but considering the particulars of the conversation, it would probably be pointless

[Ariel]

tbh anybody who mentions "reaching the floor" as an argument in favor of a contract has no argument because its indistinguishable from paying you that money. see how great it was to pay objective (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4663) 2/35? it helps us reach the floor. and gives us a salary to match in trades!
In a one year time frame, the argument has validity. In a 2 year time frame, it does not.

[Darius Bieber]

Of course the game we need to lose, we win

[Mr. Body]

Spurs don't want that pick. :lol

[objective]

No one has that kind of room?

Detroit has that kind of room. If they had never signed Collins to the extension, Spurs would be close, notsure. I could look it up to make sure but considering the particulars of the conversation, it would probably be pointless

Okay, I checked and the Spurs still would not have had enough room, even without the Raptors pick and Spurs picking around 5.

[SpursBills]

Toronto fucking blows even after trying to get better with the Olynyk trade. I love it, it means Masai is trying a re-tool and keeps them as around 4th-8th worst team in the league. That pick's got a strong chance of threading the needle and conveying as a really nice pick sometime in these next 3 drafts.

[Ditty]

At least Memphis lost also

It's turning into such an underwhelming draft :lol

At this point if they don't get the Toronto pick this year, I would not be disappointed if Spurs are picking top three.

[heyheymymy]

From reddit as a broad overview on the origins of this ongoing trade relationship with TOR:

https://i.redd.it/36mm501lffic1.png

[heyheymymy]

Somewhat confused about the win last night but looking at the situation I could see SA feeling confident they will thread the needle and TOR will get frozen out of the bottom 6.

In that case it's bombs away with losses to crush them down into max possible value #7 or 8 instead of letting them float up to lesser value #9 or 10 etc and Spurs did what they could personally to help with that by winning last night.

[heyheymymy]

That 2025 TOR 2RP could be a nice asset to keep an eye on possibly essentially a very late first

if the Raps convey 2024 FRP to SA they own their 2025 FRP and might soft tank to enhance it since they keep it thus rendering the 2025 2RP more valuable.

[spurraider21]

Somewhat confused about the win last night but looking at the situation I could see SA feeling confident they will thread the needle and TOR will get frozen out of the bottom 6.

In that case it's bombs away with losses to crush them down into max possible value #7 or 8 instead of letting them float up to lesser value #9 or 10 etc and Spurs did what they could personally to help with that by winning last night.
Players always try to win

[Seventyniner]

Players always try to win

This, plus the fact that the Raps played like dogshit, spraying turnovers all over the place and going at Wemby in the paint over and over.

[Dex]

This, plus the fact that the Raps played like dogshit, spraying turnovers all over the place and going at Wemby in the paint over and over.

Seriously, anybody who watched the game could tell there was no way to lose to those Raptors. Spurs were up by like 30, there is no tanking your way out of that

[Ariel]

That 2025 TOR 2RP could be a nice asset to keep an eye on possibly essentially a very late first

if the Raps convey 2024 FRP to SA they own their 2025 FRP and might soft tank to enhance it since they keep it thus rendering the 2025 2RP more valuable.
The Spurs traded the '23 33rd pick to Minnesota (Leonard Miller) for 2 future 2nd rounders. I wouldn't lose sleep over a pick that the Spurs likely value at 2 future 2nds at best.

[scott]

Yeah, we won't have room for all the FRPs we have, let alone the SRPs.

[spurraider21]

Yeah, we won't have room for all the FRPs we have, let alone the SRPs.
ideally the raptors pick conveys this year and the bulls pick waits until 2026, and that way we have 2 firsts in each of 24/25/26/27 (26 also coming with swap rights). and whether the charlotte pick conveys or not next year becomes just a cherry on top

second rounders gotta be used aggressively in trades, or exclusively on players who will agree to two-way contracts

[onechance87]

raptors lose,Memphis and charlote wins....Way to go pop u fucking idiot...We needs raptors pick bad....This team
needs help bad...I know its not a good draft,But alot of those players would be an upgrade over our current
roster.

[heyheymymy]

The Spurs traded the '23 33rd pick to Minnesota (Leonard Miller) for 2 future 2nd rounders. I wouldn't lose sleep over a pick that the Spurs likely value at 2 future 2nds at best.

Agreed. Especially after the Kennedy Chandler trade the year before essentially in the same range/zone of the draft. Same thing a year later with thinking SA might pick Rupert only to be L. Miller traded to MIN. Spurs love trading out that early 2nd spot since it has enough demand. Definitely seems to be a trend.

The TOR 2025 could shape up to be a nice asset regardless of how it gets utilized and ultimately by whom.

Eventually SA will prize those 2nds once in contention to cheaply round out the end of rosters and have a lot of swings since the 2nd has a obvs higher miss rate. But it seems too early for that. And I feel like SA doesn't historically seem to value bundling 2nds up to make a move into the late first but that is technically also an option.

[Mr. Body]

Last night was going to be a danger. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league when playing away from home, something like 5 and 21 or something like that. Beating Indiana even at home was a tall task for Toronto.

[SpursBills]

Sure, but there are lots of other options as well. With the new rules coming into play, contenders without assets¨(Phoenix, Dallas, Milwaukee, etc) will have to get creative in order to improve and the Spurs may find opportunities to put their surpluss of assets to good use, for instance buying swap options for picks, splitting a late lottery pick into multiple future ones (like NYK did when they moved the 11th pick in the 2022 draft to OKC), attaching bad money with a pick in exchange for assets and/or a lesser pick, etc. For instance, say the Spurs want to get rid of Zach Collins in the offseason, Washington is trying to go for a home run but needs more shots, they could offer Zach Collins + Toronto's pick for Deni Avdija + Kispert (with additional value/filler going either way to round it up) or other such teams. Of course there are lots of examples, but my point is there's IMO a very real chance of drawing value even from a perceived weak draft.

Just wanted to bring attention to this post - Avdija actually looks awesome this year and I would 100% take that deal.

He just turned 23 last month and has improved every single year. He's shooting 50/40/75 this year with definite creation upside and is a solid rebounder and defender. His contract at 4/55 is one of the best value non-max non-rookie contracts in the league - in fact I'd take his contract over Vassell in a vacuum. Whether he's your starting 3 or a high level backup, that is an awesome piece to get for a still developing awesome all-around player who's been improving every single year. I just don't think Washington's dumb enough to give him up for #7 this year.

[mo7888]

Just wanted to bring attention to this post - Avdija actually looks awesome this year and I would 100% take that deal.

He just turned 23 last month and has improved every single year. He's shooting 50/40/75 this year with definite creation upside and is a solid rebounder and defender. His contract at 4/55 is one of the best value non-max non-rookie contracts in the league - in fact I'd take his contract over Vassell in a vacuum. Whether he's your starting 3 or a high level backup, that is an awesome piece to get for a still developing awesome all-around player who's been improving every single year. I just don't think Washington's dumb enough to give him up for #7 this year.

I like Deni myself too. There are several guys like that I'd be interested in, but he's probably near the top. I don't think they take back Zach in a deal like that though. He'd be very hard to pry out of there with his contract. I doubt there's a deal for him we'd do unless Washington finds themselves in a bigger deal elsewhere and we can somehow have some leverage in a 3 team scenario. It'd be a real longshot, but I'd love to have him.

[Mr. Body]

Just to say, second year Jeremy Sochan was a good bit better than a second year Deni Avdija:

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=avdijde01&p1yrfrom=2022&p1yrto=2022&player_id2=sochaje01&p2yrfrom=2024&p2yrto=2024

Got him a good bit in many categories per 36 - much better from range, equal in rebounds, more assists, fewer fouls, same blocks, same steals, better ft shooter. And is a year younger in his sophomore year than Avdija was. Deni had better advanced stats, but I'll give those a push as Sochan was playing out of position for much of the year.

[CGD]

From reddit as a broad overview on the origins of this ongoing trade relationship with TOR:

https://i.redd.it/36mm501lffic1.png

Pretty cool visual. This thing will continue to grow for years. Keldon will be traded, and fascinated to see if the two FRPs get packaged for a player.

They forgot George Hill, lol

[onechance87]

surely memphis dont want us to get the pick....They refusing to be below raptors.

[Mr. Body]

Memphis has won two straight after losing nine in a row. Those wins were against a Houston team that is terrible on the road and a Milwaukee team that is reeling, 3-7 in their last ten.

We'll see how things go in the last twenty-some games.

[LeBowen]

I remember when Spurs used to pull randoms out of their ass and make them look competent.
Grizzlies third stringers would easily sweep Wemby-less Spurs and we're talking about development and patience.

[TheGreatYacht]

It’s over. Raptors will surely start tanking soon as well

[Mitch Cumsteen]

Just to say, second year Jeremy Sochan was a good bit better than a second year Deni Avdija:

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=avdijde01&p1yrfrom=2022&p1yrto=2022&player_id2=sochaje01&p2yrfrom=2024&p2yrto=2024

Got him a good bit in many categories per 36 - much better from range, equal in rebounds, more assists, fewer fouls, same blocks, same steals, better ft shooter. And is a year younger in his sophomore year than Avdija was. Deni had better advanced stats, but I'll give those a push as Sochan was playing out of position for much of the year.

Avdija going from a 30% lifetime three point shooter over his first three seasons to 40% this year is kind of remarkable. He's getting up more overall shots, but taking slightly fewer threes per game. Is it shot selection? Did he change his form? Are people having to respect his dribble more? Whatever the hell he is doing, I wish he would let Tre Jones know.

[TrainOfThought5]

Do we have a chance?

[RC_Drunkford]

I remember when Spurs used to pull randoms out of their ass and make them look competent.
Grizzlies third stringers would easily sweep Wemby-less Spurs and we're talking about development and patience.

Champagnie is the new project

[Mr. Body]

Do we have a chance?

Even if Toronto stays below Memphis, as they are now, we still have a touch above a. 500 chance of getting the pick.

[toki9]

Toronto over New Jersey by 28. Interesting result.

[Mr. Body]

Brooklyn has been awful lately, leading to their coach getting canned. I don't think they'll right the ship and they're only one win better than Memphis/Toronto. Not inconceivable that they slip below either or both. Sucks for us (and them) that Houston owns their pick.

[SpursBills]

Toronto is bad. Nets are far worse. If they actually had the opportunity to trade Mikal Bridges to Houston for all their picks and some swaps back then I have no idea what Marks is doing not taking that deal. I would have preferred that Houston gets Bridges, tops out as a good not great team, and doesn't have a horrible Nets team potentially giving them high lottery picks for the next 4 years.

[Mr. Body]

Toronto is bad. Nets are far worse. If they actually had the opportunity to trade Mikal Bridges to Houston for all their picks and some swaps back then I have no idea what Marks is doing not taking that deal. I would have preferred that Houston gets Bridges, tops out as a good not great team, and doesn't have a horrible Nets team potentially giving them high lottery picks for the next 4 years.

I don't believe Houston is offering the picks back. Nor should we, for that matter, if we're wanting Trae.

[onechance87]

Toronto over New Jersey by 28. Interesting result.

worried bout charlotte tho..they on a 3 or 4 game win streak.They been looking good lately

[Mr. Body]

worried bout charlotte tho..they on a 3 or 4 game win streak.They been looking good lately

They'd have to make up seven games with 30 left to go. Possible, but I'm not sure.

Utah may now be tanking now that LAL and GSW are starting to take off with the play-in spots. Their pick is protected 1-10, otherwise owed to OKC. Right now they're two wins above Houston and Atlanta in the 11 slot.

[scott]

These refs not interested in calling anything. Clear push off by Duarte on the offensive rebound

Edit: Sorry wrong thread

[spurraider21]

nice convincing win against brooklyn, one of the teams they could reasonably move past in the standings

charlotte has also won 4 straight and have looked nice since making the deadline moves, but they're too far in the hole to make anything happen with that pick this year

[DPG21920]

nice convincing win against brooklyn, one of the teams they could reasonably move past in the standings

charlotte has also won 4 straight and have looked nice since making the deadline moves, but they're too far in the hole to make anything happen with that pick this year

Next year for CHA looking possibly nice though. If they keep Bridges and get LaMelo healthy, they may very well be fighting for a playoff spot next season with how good Miller looks and their bench depth

[spurraider21]

Next year for CHA looking possibly nice though. If they keep Bridges and get LaMelo healthy, they may very well be fighting for a playoff spot next season with how good Miller looks and their bench depth
tbh may come down to mark williams' health as well. or maybe they end up drafting Sarr to shore that up

[DPG21920]

tbh may come down to mark williams' health as well. or maybe they end up drafting Sarr to shore that up

Yup. It will still take a strong off season for them but its looking at least more promising IMO

[TXstbobcat]

Raptors get the close win over Atlanta tonight.

[Mr. Body]

Toronto wins on a back-to-back away at Atlanta. Actually only 3 games back of the Hawks. Honestly this Toronto team is fun to watch. I think they did a great job of finding pieces knowing they had to lose Siakam and Anunoby. They have work to do, but that have a lot to work with.

Taylor Jenkins is one of the best coaches in the league. He has a band of misfits fighting Clippers really hard at home. If they lose, Toronto slides a game free of Memphis and tied with Brooklyn in the win column, though they've lost two more games.

[Mr. Body]

Atlanta seemed to have the last play-in spot sewn up, but have lost three in a row and look listless and unimpressive.

[onechance87]

hopefully memphis charlotte and portland lose

[TXstbobcat]

Memphis came through with the loss to the Clippers.

[exstatic]

In one move, Toronto’s drop from 6 to 7, our pick odds jumped from 54% to 68%.

[Bruno]

There isn't only the Toronto pick to watch, there is also Spurs pick to keep an eye on.

Charlotte winning that stretch of games was really nice because it gave Spurs a little cushion to stay in the bottom 3. As of today, Spurs have 11 wins and it would be great if they could stay behind Charlotte (14 wins) and Portland (15 wins).

[scott]

Just as a side point, it's fascinating to me that compared to last year with Wemby as the prize and multiple teams tanking, that we still have teams that are significantly worse this year (including us). Just an observation.

[rascal]

Just as a side point, it's fascinating to me that compared to last year with Wemby as the prize and multiple teams tanking, that we still have teams that are significantly worse this year (including us). Just an observation.

More teams were tanking last year so teams like the Spurs picked up more wins.

Last year's Spurs after the trade deadline were worse than this year's team but picked up enough wins against tanking teams to seem like they were better.

[Knoxxx]

I’m still not really hearing that picks 1-7 are anything more than a crap shoot, relative to the other 6 picks, in this year’s draft. Where in that 1-7 range is there any real drop off in the quality of prospects (or lack thereof?).

[SpursBills]

Just as a side point, it's fascinating to me that compared to last year with Wemby as the prize and multiple teams tanking, that we still have teams that are significantly worse this year (including us). Just an observation.

My impression was that the Spurs were better this year especially after the new year when we started playing sane lineups but would have to take a look at point differential compared to last year

[Mr. Body]

I’m still not really hearing that picks 1-7 are anything more than a crap shoot, relative to the other 6 picks, in this year’s draft. Where in that 1-7 range is there any real drop off in the quality of prospects (or lack thereof?).

Last year's 1-5 were better prospects than that range this year.

[Knoxxx]

Last year's 1-5 were better prospects than that range this year.

I feel like getting the TOR pick this year is best case. Since they may even have to tank harder next season and end up in a rut like the Spurs were in last year and currently. In which case the TOR pick could never convey.

[Mr. Body]

I feel like getting the TOR pick this year is best case. Since they may even have to tank harder next season and end up in a rut like the Spurs were in last year and currently. In which case the TOR pick could never convey.

Theyre not going to tank next year. I think people are getting Toronto all wrong.

Any case, it's best to get Toronto's pick now. We can get a good guard and wing out of this one. Next year we have two picks automatically with another pick (Chicago) possible and a fourth (Charlotte) unlikely but not impossible. Handling three picks in one draft is probably too much.

[Knoxxx]

Theyre not going to tank next year. I think people are getting Toronto all wrong.

Any case, it's best to get Toronto's pick now. We can get a good guard and wing out of this one. Next year we have two picks automatically with another pick (Chicago) possible and a fourth (Charlotte) unlikely but not impossible. Handling three picks in one draft is probably too much.

Well I’m not talking about TOR MGT intentions, more basing on the reality of the Spurs blowing them off the floor at home recently. If we are actually better than TOR or in the vicinity, them being a 20-win team is not un fathomable at all.

Another aspect of this though, is we need help sooner than later. TOR or our pick this draft, could be marketable assets to get a veteran at one of our several positions of need.

[Splits]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

[Mr. Body]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

Yes, wanting to add players of need to this team is being greedy.

[Splits]

Yes, wanting to add players of need to this team is being greedy.

Rookies suck. 2nd year players aren't much better. If you buy into the 4 year program, yeah, it can happen on a 25% luck chance. Would much rather use semi-guaranteed pics to strategically improve and trade the TOR/CHI/CHA/ATL +thirty 2nds for known quantities

[scott]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

I disagree, in that a bird in hand is better than a 33% reduction in the chances of it conveying. If you want to punt the pick towards a future year, you can still do so with it conveying - but IMO it would be best for the pick to be known to be conveying, especially if it conveys at or near it's maximum pick value (#7-9). If it does not convey next year, the odds of it threading the needle perfectly to land in that #7-10 range are reduced (though not impossible).

[rascal]

I disagree, in that a bird in hand is better than a 33% reduction in the chances of it conveying. If you want to punt the pick towards a future year, you can still do so with it conveying - but IMO it would be best for the pick to be known to be conveying, especially if it conveys at or near it's maximum pick value (#7-9). If it does not convey next year, the odds of it threading the needle perfectly to land in that #7-10 range are reduced (though not impossible).

Yes, if the pick conveys this year looks to be in a great range 7-10. Might not convey that high in another year or might not convey at all.

Also Spurs are already going to add two firsts next year guaranteed at a minimum.

[jjspur]

Yes, if the pick conveys this year looks to be in a great range 7-10. Might not convey that high in another year or might not convey at all.

Also Spurs are already going to add two firsts next year guaranteed at a minimum.

Absolutely agree. Better now in the 7 - 10 range, rather than next year where it could be in the 7 - the low 20's range. Lets be totally honest no one knows where that pick will eventually fall.

However that means replacing at least 2 current spurs and possibly another with with our multiple second rounders. Sure we could use an infusion of talent, but its going to be very young inexperienced talent. Maybe a trade for a current 2nd year Player or an seasoned not so old vet?

[exstatic]

Last year's 1-5 were better prospects than that range this year.

3 of them were deer, and are struggling mightily.

[exstatic]

It would probably be more advantageous to putoff the Toronto pick until next year or the year after. There's no harm in carrying it forward, can be used for trade value. Those wanting it this year are just being greedy, although it does look like a 7-9

You do understand that there’s a substantially non zero chance that if the TOR pick doesn’t convey this year, we could have a train wreck of FIVE FRPs next year. Ours and ATLs are sure things, but TOR, CHI, and CHA could all convey. Expediency alone dictates that it’s better for TOR to convey this year.

[Mr. Body]

There are good guards and wings available this year. Just take one of each and start developing them.

[spurraider21]

Rookies suck. 2nd year players aren't much better. If you buy into the 4 year program, yeah, it can happen on a 25% luck chance. Would much rather use semi-guaranteed pics to strategically improve and trade the TOR/CHI/CHA/ATL +thirty 2nds for known quantities
Spurs already have a guaranteed 2 first rounders in 2025. May also get one from chicago. May even get one from Charlotte. So you don’t necessarily want to push it out. There are some projected stars in 25 but not in the range of the raptors pick even if it does convey. It may not. It may convey in the late teens.

the roster needs a talent infusion asap. Getting an additional top 7-8 pick this year would be huge

[Mr. Body]

Nearly every contender drafts their way there. I can think of very few champions who did otherwise. Maybe the Lakers for their fake bubble victory, but they're the Lakers.

If someone wants to demand trading for known quantities, tell us who those quantities are.

EDIT: Oh yeah Toronto with nephew. That was years ago.

[sfernald]

Yes, wanting to add players of need to this team is being greedy.

The bulk of this team is so bad the only way they will be able to compete is if they manage to draft another generational talent. Maybe two more. We basically need to bring on a Steph and a Zion along with Wemby if we ever wanna have a chance to make up for the shitty KJs and crappy Zollins. So we need to be greedy!

[sfernald]

Nearly every contender drafts their way there. I can think of very few champions who did otherwise. Maybe the Lakers for their fake bubble victory, but they're the Lakers.

If someone wants to demand trading for known quantities, tell us who those quantities are.

EDIT: Oh yeah Toronto with nephew. That was years ago.

The spurs already have drafted their way to a championship by drafting Wemby a generational talent who is already a top 20 player in his rookie season. They just need to put the right vets around and the championships start pouring in like rain.

[RC_Drunkford]

I also hope the Raptors pick conveys this year. Draft an SF and a PG. Replace Champagnie with the rookie SF in the starting line up. Play the rookie PG off the bench and package 2 of Jones, Wesley or Branham for an upgrade at starting PG.

[exstatic]

Nearly every contender drafts their way there. I can think of very few champions who did otherwise. Maybe the Lakers for their fake bubble victory, but they're the Lakers.

If someone wants to demand trading for known quantities, tell us who those quantities are.

EDIT: Oh yeah Toronto with nephew. That was years ago.

If you really want to split hairs, they did, anyway, since the assets they sent, outside of one pick, were their draft picks: DeRozan and Jak.

[exstatic]

The spurs already have drafted their way to a championship by drafting Wemby a generational talent who is already a top 20 player in his rookie season. They just need to put the right vets around and the championships start pouring in like rain.

We’re talking the bulk of the roster, not one player. Example: GS with Steph, Klay, and Dray; Denver with Joker, Murray, MPJ.

[scott]

I also hope the Raptors pick conveys this year. Draft an SF and a PG. Replace Champagnie with the rookie SF in the starting line up. Play the rookie PG off the bench and package 2 of Jones, Wesley or Branham for an upgrade at starting PG.

If we are going to go the slow, build through the draft, see what the 2025 draft offers after improving to a 35 win team, then I think something like this works in my ideal scenario of drafting Dilly and Matas:

Tre/Dilly (Dilly starting by EOY)
Vassell/TBD
Hayward/Matas
Sochan/TBD
Wemby/TBD/Bassey

In my NBA2k simulation, I got rid of Collins (I honestly don't remember how), Branham and Wesley. Somehow I ended up with Naz Reid to backup Wemby while Bassey continues to recover. I signed Hayward (as you can see above) and Royce O'Neal to backup Sochan. I traded Keldon for Grady Dick straight up to get off Keldon's contract. Dick backs up Vassell. I guess you could plug Branham behind Vasselly and Collins behind Wemby... but I'd rather not :lol.

You could certainly start Matas and have Keldon be the 6th man, or maybe move Keldon back to the starting lineup. The Tre/Dev/Keldon/Sochan/Wemby lineup actually has pretty good results this season. As of right now it's our 3rd most used lineup and has a +13.5 NetRtg (source: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?slug=advanced&TeamID=1610612759)

This isn't a super exciting offseason if Bran, Keldon and Collins are still there... but it adds two good prospects and leaves all draft capital in tact.

[Splits]

Spurs already have a guaranteed 2 first rounders in 2025. May also get one from chicago. May even get one from Charlotte. So you don’t necessarily want to push it out. There are some projected stars in 25 but not in the range of the raptors pick even if it does convey. It may not. It may convey in the late teens.

the roster needs a talent infusion asap. Getting an additional top 7-8 pick this year would be huge

Only having our own top-5ver this year would force the FO to get off their fucking ass and do something. You can't just bring back this shitwhore lineup with a new rookie next year. I could see an approach where they're like, "oh yeah, we have two top tenners we're going to roll with and see if Wemby can put up a 5x10 every night"

Fuck these people, bring us in some vets that can guide.

[Splits]

Still strongly believe we draft Bronny with our LAL 2nd just to shiv those motherfuckers

[gambit1990]

Still strongly believe we draft Bronny with our LAL 2nd just to shiv those motherfuckers
no way he falls that low. he's great trade capital TBH.

[gambit1990]

so what's the optimal spot for the raptors to finish in? like, tenth or eleventh in the east?

[Ditty]

I am also starting to be on the, I wouldn't be upset if we don't receive the TOR pick this year thought. SA still would have two more drafts to get that pick and Ujiri seems to be against rebuilding. I understand that possibly having five first round picks in 2025 is a bit inessential. So far, the projected top six picks in 2025 would probably go #1 in this years draft. Might end up with a much better talented player in next years draft. I understand both arguments, so I would be fine also if the Spurs just get it over with when it comes to that pick.

[spurraider21]

so what's the optimal spot for the raptors to finish in? like, tenth or eleventh in the east?
Dno if there is one specific spot but anywhere between 7-10 probably. Even at 7 i think it’s about a 70% chance of the pick conveying. Then a few extra percentage points per slot after that

even at 6 it’s slightly more than 50% but that’s pushing it

[exstatic]

so what's the optimal spot for the raptors to finish in? like, tenth or eleventh in the east?

I would say 8th. Only once with the current flattened odds that started in 2019 has a team lower than that jumped into the top 4, ATL in 2019, and only twice has an 8th jumped into the top 4. It’s also the second best pick that we could keep, the best being 7th.

[CGD]

If we are going to go the slow, build through the draft, see what the 2025 draft offers after improving to a 35 win team, then I think something like this works in my ideal scenario of drafting Dilly and Matas:

Tre/Dilly (Dilly starting by EOY)
Vassell/TBD
Hayward/Matas
Sochan/TBD
Wemby/TBD/Bassey

In my NBA2k simulation, I got rid of Collins (I honestly don't remember how), Branham and Wesley. Somehow I ended up with Naz Reid to backup Wemby while Bassey continues to recover. I signed Hayward (as you can see above) and Royce O'Neal to backup Sochan. I traded Keldon for Grady Dick straight up to get off Keldon's contract. Dick backs up Vassell. I guess you could plug Branham behind Vasselly and Collins behind Wemby... but I'd rather not :lol.

You could certainly start Matas and have Keldon be the 6th man, or maybe move Keldon back to the starting lineup. The Tre/Dev/Keldon/Sochan/Wemby lineup actually has pretty good results this season. As of right now it's our 3rd most used lineup and has a +13.5 NetRtg (source: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?slug=advanced&TeamID=1610612759)

This isn't a super exciting offseason if Bran, Keldon and Collins are still there... but it adds two good prospects and leaves all draft capital in tact.

Yikes. Imagine drafting Dillingham 2nd or 3rd over one of Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Williams or even Matas. That would be a fireable offense.

[The Truth #6]

Fireable offense seems a bit strong. Williams or Matas could flop just as easily as a lot of these players, and I like both of them.

[Mr. Body]

Yikes. Imagine drafting Dillingham 2nd or 3rd over one of Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Williams or even Matas. That would be a fireable offense.

Man, which of those is a sure fire hit??

Sarr looks like a low chance of panning out above a good weak side shotblocker.

Risacher is strictly a role-player with a thin chance of more.

Williams, I have no idea why people are so high on this guy. Slow, weak, a good shooter at low volume but doesn't do anything else.

Matas is fine, but isn't entirely convincing.

None of these guys are entirely convincing, really. Ain't no one getting fired for missing some can't-miss prospect here because there isn't one.

[DAF86]

Yikes. Imagine drafting Dillingham 2nd or 3rd over one of Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Williams or even Matas. That would be a fireable offense.

I would say that Dillingham's chances of sticking in the NBA, at least as a microwave type backup PG, are higher than most of the guys you named, tbh.

[Mr. Body]

I would say that Dillingham's chances of sticking in the NBA, at least as a microwave type backup PG, are higher than most of the guys you named, tbh.

1000%

This league has a lot of scorching hot small scoring guards. If I had to bet any top guy in this draft 'works out,' it's him. I have very little doubt his scoring is going to translate. Question is what you give up on the other side.

By watching him, he needs no wind-up to start pouring shots in. He doesn't pout on bad stretches. He plays within a game flow, but can start ripping point off. Clearly he has a clutch gene. He can get his shots off in very tight spaces. Right now, per 36 he's getting off 6.8 threes a game and is hitting .452 percent. I mean, that's a really significant sample size and he's doing it when teams are trying to stop him.

Not saying he's the Spurs' guy, but again if there's a bet to make about whose skills will translate, to me it's this guy.

[R. DeMurre]

Man, which of those is a sure fire hit??

Sarr looks like a low chance of panning out above a good weak side shotblocker.

Risacher is strictly a role-player with a thin chance of more.

Williams, I have no idea why people are so high on this guy. Slow, weak, a good shooter at low volume but doesn't do anything else.

Matas is fine, but isn't entirely convincing.

None of these guys are entirely convincing, really. Ain't no one getting fired for missing some can't-miss prospect here because there isn't one.


I totally understand this perception, but it is interesting to note that the same thing was said about Jalen last summer. I saw numerous comments about him having an "old man's game" or looking like the janitor putting up shots in the gym.

[Mr. Body]

I totally understand this perception, but it is interesting to note that the same thing was said about Jalen last summer. I saw numerous comments about him having an "old man's game" or looking like the janitor putting up shots in the gym.

Goddamn if people don't stop bringing up his brother. :lol

[scott]

Yikes. Imagine drafting Dillingham 2nd or 3rd over one of Risacher, Sarr, Topic, Williams or even Matas. That would be a fireable offense.

Well, in this case we weren't drafting 2nd or 3rd, we drafted 6th (Matas) and 8th (Dilly). Agreed there is no reason to take Dilly before the TOR pick - odds are he'll be there, IMO.

[BackHome]

Two guys that I would seriously look if we get the Raptors pick would be:

Johnny Furphy - SF - 6'9 - Kansas - I like the kid he can shoot the 3 ball - 394% and looks to be a good rebounder for his postion. Two things that I think we need which is rebounding and better outside shooting which he does well in.

Devin Carter - PG - 6'3 "Legit" - Providence - Starting to really like his game and think this is the kind of kid Pop would love to coach as Dejounte likes to say "He got the Dog" in him he plays great defense and is probably the best defender and rebounder for his position. He is older 22 but I don't mind as he was well known as being a great defender but has really improved his offensive game

[exstatic]

Two guys that I would seriously look if we get the Raptors pick would be:

Johnny Furphy - SF - 6'9 - Kansas - I like the kid he can shoot the 3 ball - 394% and looks to be a good rebounder for his postion. Two things that I think we need which is rebounding and better outside shooting which he does well in.

Devin Carter - PG - 6'3 "Legit" - Providence - Starting to really like his game and think this is the kind of kid Pop would love to coach as Dejounte likes to say "He got the Dog" in him he plays great defense and is probably the best defender and rebounder for his position. He is older 22 but I don't mind as he was well known as being a great defender but has really improved his offensive game

Devin Carter will be available in the second round. No need to reach by almost 30 picks.

[spurraider21]

Nets crushing Memphis

Raptors and Pacers going down to the wire

[MultiTroll]

Raps on like a 12-0 tear to break open a close game.

Nicely done.

Doughie McForbesbot on the bench for Indy.

[spurraider21]

what a possession by quickley. showing off the handles to beat all the traps and doubles, then with shot clock winding down blows by his guy for what is effectively the game sealing layup

[objective]

Re: Dillingham

Vecenie, fwiw, in I think the most recent podcast, said not only that Dillingham wasn't the passer Trae Young was, but was even a worse defender than Young was at OSU

Ouch

It's taken Young, what, 5+ years to get his defense better than awful?

[Mr. Body]

Re: Dillingham

Vecenie, fwiw, in I think the most recent podcast, said not only that Dillingham wasn't the passer Trae Young was, but was even a worse defender than Young was at OSU

Ouch

It's taken Young, what, 5+ years to get his defense better than awful?

Vecenie is always full of shit. Neither was a good defender. I think Dillingham can improve. Young had an ungodly usage rate of 37.1% and so got more assists that way.

Young had him at the free throw line, generating way more fouls and doubling the amount of fts, and got more assists. Dillingham - again, as a college player - is a much better shooter. Young shot a shitload but has never actually hit efficiently. Trae was a .360 shooter from deep, Dillingham is .452.

[Mr. Body]

Raptors are a lot of fun to watch. The soft rebuild has looked pretty good.

As I said. The return of Poeltl helped a ton.

[spurraider21]

barring a herculean comeback by memphis...

bottom 5 are still quite clearly the pistons, wizards, spurs, hornets, and blazers, followed by:

6) Memphis: 20-38
7) Toronto: 22-36
8) Brooklyn: 22-25
T-9) Houston: 25-32
T-10) Atlanta: 25-32
11) Utah: 27-31
12) Chicago: 27-30

of those last 4, atlanta seems to be the team most likely to start tailing off given the Young injury, though Murray should be more effective playing on-ball for a change. even at the #7 spot, its about a 68% chance of the pick conveying. incrementally increases the further up the standings toronto goes, but also makes the floor of the pick worse

ie at #7, (excluding scenarios less than 0.5% likely to occur) the raptors can convey any pick between 7-10 , whereas at #8 they can convey any pick between 8-10 (73.5% chance overall of pick conveying), and at #9, can convey 9-11, (82.6% chance of conveying) etc

[exstatic]

barring a herculean comeback by memphis...

bottom 5 are still quite clearly the pistons, wizards, spurs, hornets, and blazers, followed by:

6) Memphis: 20-38
7) Toronto: 22-36
8) Brooklyn: 22-25
T-9) Houston: 25-32
T-10) Atlanta: 25-32
11) Utah: 27-31
12) Chicago: 27-30

of those last 4, atlanta seems to be the team most likely to start tailing off given the Young injury, though Murray should be more effective playing on-ball for a change. even at the #7 spot, its about a 68% chance of the pick conveying. incrementally increases the further up the standings toronto goes, but also makes the floor of the pick worse

ie at #7, (excluding scenarios less than 0.5% likely to occur) the raptors can convey any pick between 7-10 , whereas at #8 they can convey any pick between 8-10 (73.5% chance overall of pick conveying), and at #9, can convey 9-11, (82.6% chance of conveying) etc

As long as Toronto won, there really isn’t a downside to the other game. If Brooklyn wins, they maintain a slim 1/2 game hold on #8, but Toronto opens up a 2 game edge on Memphis for #7.

[Mr. Body]

Best for is probably Toronto at seven or eight. Any higher and we start losing draft slots for marginal gains in conveyance chance.

[Bruno]

Something to keep in mind is that Raptors could make the playoffs. In that case, they won't be in the lottery and Spurs would get the 15th pick even if Raptors have the 9th and 10th worst record in the league.

Raptors aren't that far from the playoffs. They could catch up the Trae-less Hawks to finish 10th in the east. After that play-in could be a first game against Bulls, followed by a second game against the Embiid-less Sixers.

I rather see the pick not conveying this year than getting the 15th pick.

[Atl Spur]

It was all good a few weeks ago….. people were so sure but Toronto rather lose it this year vs the upcoming years.

[duncan2150]

Something to keep in mind is that Raptors could make the playoffs. In that case, they won't be in the lottery and Spurs would get the 15th pick even if Raptors have the 9th and 10th worst record in the league.

Raptors aren't that far from the playoffs. They could catch up the Trae-less Hawks to finish 10th in the east. After that play-in could be a first game against Bulls, followed by a second game against the Embiid-less Sixers.

I rather see the pick not conveying this year than getting the 15th pick.

That's a worst case scenario, that could happen but unlikely imo . If we could get something between 7-11 that will be good.

[JPB]

Raptors are a lot of fun to watch. The soft rebuild has looked pretty good.

As I said. The return of Poeltl helped a ton.

but hey, let's spend the next 4 years at the bottom of the league "pounding the rock" with a generational talent.

[JPB]

Also, gotta love in this thread the definitive takes (from the usual experts) about the future of young prospects with zero NBA games they barely even saw play...

[exstatic]

Something to keep in mind is that Raptors could make the playoffs. In that case, they won't be in the lottery and Spurs would get the 15th pick even if Raptors have the 9th and 10th worst record in the league.

Raptors aren't that far from the playoffs. They could catch up the Trae-less Hawks to finish 10th in the east. After that play-in could be a first game against Bulls, followed by a second game against the Embiid-less Sixers.

I rather see the pick not conveying this year than getting the 15th pick.

Overtaking ATL would make them the 10 seed. No 10 seed has played in to the playoffs, and precious few 9 seeds have, either.

I see ATL holding their spot with DJ at the helm, but not playing in to the playoffs.

[spurraider21]

Also, gotta love in this thread the definitive takes (from the usual experts) about the future of young prospects with zero NBA games they barely even saw play...
pretty sure people are just giving their opinions and it should be taken as such

[Big Empty]

3 wins in a row for the Raptors

[spurraider21]

their first 3 game win streak of the season

[DAF86]

So when do we start rooting for loses again?

[Mugen]

So when do we start rooting for loses again?

Their ceiling is 9th seed. As long as they lose in the play in, i'm good tbh.

[Seventyniner]

So when do we start rooting for loses again?

Now imo. The Raptors are 7 wins ahead of the 5th worst team with 24-25 games left, so they are highly unlikely to finish with a bottom 5 record. The Grizzlies and Nets are on either side of the Raptors in the standings but both teams seem more likely to tank than try and win.

The Raptors are only 3.5 games out of a play-in spot right now. It would definitely suck for them to sneak into the playoffs by getting hot at the right time and only have to send the Spurs the #15 or #16 pick.

[Guru of Nothing]

Thread that needle! Thread that needle!

[onechance87]

fuck raptors losing and memphis winning.Just when i thought the tide was turning in our favor.

[sfernald]

fuck raptors losing and memphis winning.Just when i thought the tide was turning in our favor.

Patience. Stay on target. There’s lots of time still. We need some losses and a few wins. Back and forth we go. Just relax and let the basketball gods take care of things.z


By the way, who do you guys like for this pick so far? I’m hoping for Reed Shepard.

[Chinook]

Something to keep in mind is that Raptors could make the playoffs. In that case, they won't be in the lottery and Spurs would get the 15th pick even if Raptors have the 9th and 10th worst record in the league.

Raptors aren't that far from the playoffs. They could catch up the Trae-less Hawks to finish 10th in the east. After that play-in could be a first game against Bulls, followed by a second game against the Embiid-less Sixers.

I rather see the pick not conveying this year than getting the 15th pick.

No me. I'd rather the pick convey. I don't know too much about the middle of the first, but there are some names who could be there that seem interesting enough. The only way I would be happy with the pick not conveying is if the Spurs trade it this summer.

[TrainOfThought5]

Patience. Stay on target. There’s lots of time still. We need some losses and a few wins. Back and forth we go. Just relax and let the basketball gods take care of things.z


By the way, who do you guys like for this pick so far? I’m hoping for Reed Shepard.

can he play defense?

[onechance87]

can he play defense?

better then branham and maybe better then tre jones.

[Mr. Body]

Risky night in terms of our pick conveying. Memphis gets Portland at home while Toronto host a Golden State that's playing very well.

[onechance87]

Risky night in terms of our pick conveying. Memphis gets Portland at home while Toronto host a Golden State that's playing very well.

yup...need memphis to lose and raptors to win.

[Mr. Body]

yup...need memphis to lose and raptors to win.

Both losing is fine

[mo7888]

Memphis going hard for that tank..

[rascal]

Looks like Portland is sitting players.

[mo7888]

Looks like Portland is sitting players.

And Memphis is still winning the tank battle tonight

[BackHome]

This is the month you start seeing teams go all in the tank starting sitting older players and a lot more ankle sprains requiring good players to sit. I would be shocked if Detroit, Washington, combined win 4 more games for the remaining season.

[Chinook]

There's a real possibility Toronto gets a lotto pick from Indy for a player they weren't willing to re-sign this summer. Their pick is only top-three protected, so the Raptors have a chance to get two top-four picks or get a top-four pick while still giving its pick to SA. If the Pacers legit disappoint, Siakam becomes a realistic target this summer, though the Spurs don't have the money to sign him outright. He's not my favorite target, but he'd be much cheaper than say Markkanen in terms of assets, and if the Spurs got a good deal on Murray, they might be able to put a "good team" around Wemby without denting their war chest too much.

[BatManu20]

Goddammit. Typically a 6-8 week recovery time for that injury. Raps might not win a game.

1763778086636576957

[onechance87]

Goddammit. Typically a 6-8 week recovery time for that injury. Raps might not win a game.

1763778086636576957

wow

[Robz4000]

Might be better for that pick to come in '25 tbh.

[SpursBills]

I think it will be close regardless. They are up 6 games on Portland with 14 to go so it will be tall order to pass them. Meaning that realistically most likely they will finish either 6th or 7th, so will probably come down to a coin flip for this year.

[onechance87]

Might be better for that pick to come in '25 tbh.

no it wont....we need that pick deperately this draft.Any of those players in this draft would
be upgrades over our current roster.

[Pauleta14]

There are a lot of players in NBA that would be an upgrade

'25 is better bc we have ours this year and it'll be the last year before hopefully 2 decades Spurs have a lottery pick

We need either Toronto or ATL's 1st next season at least

[Robz4000]

no it wont....we need that pick deperately this draft.Any of those players in this draft would
be upgrades over our current roster.

A lottery pick in '25 has more value than a pick in this year's draft. Spurs already have a lot of youth on the roster as is anyway (whether it's talented youth or not remains to be seen).

[onechance87]

A lottery pick in '25 has more value than a pick in this year's draft. Spurs already have a lot of youth on the roster as is anyway (whether it's talented youth or not remains to be seen).

i expect the raptors to tank next year.They will suck next year as well.They werent even trying to tank this year and still
almost top 6 worst teams

[Robz4000]

i expect the raptors to tank next year.They will suck next year as well.They werent even trying to tank this year and still
almost top 6 worst teams

They've made several win-now moves over the past year that says otherwise. Regardless, looking at the standings the Spurs still have great odds of landing their pick; there's no way they can pass up the teams below them in the East or SA/Guests out West. Hell, Memphis may outtank them too.

[Robz4000]

:lol Raptors still have 5 games left against the Hornets/Pistons/Wizards/Guests along with a home-heavy schedule. They're fucked if they decide to tank at this point.

[spurraider21]

They’re 2 games ahead of a reeling memphis team and 4 games ahead of a very bad blazers team. Even if they slide behind memphis and wind up with the 6th worse record there’s still slightly more than a 50% chance of the pick conveying.

if they get behind Portland as well those odds drop to about 35%

[sfernald]

I just don’t think they are really bad enough to drop much more, especially with those head-scratching win now moves at the deadline. I mean they’ll have a chance at the lottery like everyone else but seems like god likes the spurs and god doesn’t roll dice!

[TekXX]

I suppose getting 7th in a bad draft is still good, about the same as a 12 in next years draft.

[Ariel]

1763781427143811192

He's likely out for the remainder of the season

[objective]

Yeah, without Barnes they can catch Memphis

Sucks

[RC_Drunkford]

this is terrible news. We gotta hope Memphis can out tank them

[JPB]

A lottery pick in '25 has more value than a pick in this year's draft. Spurs already have a lot of youth on the roster as is anyway (whether it's talented youth or not remains to be seen).

I wouldn't personnally have definitive statements about any draft in a vacuum, much less one year from now... People say '25 is a better draft entirely because of a teen (Flag) who dominates in high school but has yat to play real, competitive BB. Adam Morrison was the next big thing at some point, and even without Wemby last year's class would have been tagged as great because of the ultra hyped Scoot and the Thompson twins... And there's only one team who will get Flag, basing or delaying your strategy on the small percentage of chance to get Flag when you already have Victor is very hazardous.

[Mr. Body]

I wouldn't personnally have definitive statements about any draft in a vacuum, much less one year from now... People say '25 is a better draft entirely because of a teen (Flag) who dominates in high school but has yeat to play real, competitive BB. Adam Morrison was the next big thing at some point... And there's only one team who will get Flag, basing or delaying your strategy on the small percentage of chance to get Flag when you already have Victor is very hazardous.

The '25 draft has a few big prospects, with two of them going to Rutgers. IMM Flagg is getting outsize hype for a guy who isn't a great shooter and is more physically developed than some in his class, and he's had a few "no one can guard me" statements that make me cringe. But he's young. We'll see. Next year is sounding a ton like last year's draft when there are several 'can't miss' guys (minus Victor) and then it turned out to be a bit too much.

[Robz4000]

I wouldn't personnally have definitive statements about any draft in a vacuum, much less one year from now... People say '25 is a better draft entirely because of a teen (Flag) who dominates in high school but has yat to play real, competitive BB. Adam Morrison was the next big thing at some point, and even without Wemby last year's class would have been tagged as great because of the ultra hyped Scoot and the Thompson twins... And there's only one team who will get Flag, basing or delaying your strategy on the small percentage of chance to get Flag when you already have Victor is very hazardous.

Way too soon to draw conclusions about this year's class imo. There's been plenty of draft picks that have looked underwhelming early only to come on strong later (Ant comes to mind recently).

[Splits]

Hawks aren't doing us any favors against the Nyets today

[Mr. Body]

Hawks aren't doing us any favors against the Nyets today

They're without Trae Young for a while. I don't think they'll be very good.

[objective]

The issue for me isn't the talent of the 24 draft vs 25 draft

It's the likelihood of the pick conveying at all

Toronto without Anunoby and Siakam has been horrendous and much worse. If they had dealt them in the summer they would have top 6 odds easy

On top of that, you have to figure that the Spurs won't be bottom 5 again

Even if they don't try to tank, they could be bottom 5 the next 2 years and the Spurs get no first round pick

[Mr. Body]

The issue for me isn't the talent of the 24 draft vs 25 draft

It's the likelihood of the pick conveying at all

Toronto without Anunoby and Siakam has been horrendous and much worse. If they had dealt them in the summer they would have top 6 odds easy

On top of that, you have to figure that the Spurs won't be bottom 5 again

Even if they don't try to tank, they could be bottom 5 the next 2 years and the Spurs get no first round pick

If Toronto gets their pick this year, they'll have a top 6 pick and what right now is Indiana's #15 pick. They've gone 5-5 in their last ten games. Small sample, but I doubt they'll be as bad next year as they were this year. Even if somehow they are, the odds will be about the same: if they end up with the 6th worst record this year (Memphis is better than them), we still have a 54% chance of getting the pick. If they end up the same next year, they'd have to defend the same odds, so .46 x .46.

If they manage to keep the pick even then in 2025, they'll be adding another top 6 pick and likely won't be any worse in 2026. But if they are the same, then it's .46 x .46 x .46 for them to keep the pick from us for three years straight. That is, if they land as the sixth worst record each year. And they're clearly not tearing it down.

[Mugen]

F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.

Memphis, the Spurs, and even Charlotte won't be as terrible next year and I could see the Raps absolutely tanking for Flagg.

[Mr. Body]

F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.

Memphis, the Spurs, and even Charlotte won't be as terrible next year and I could see the Raps absolutely tanking for Flagg.

I literally just told you it will convey.

[Ariel]

You guys are totally crazy, the chance the pick doesn't convey in a 3 year span is VERY SMALL, and the drop off from 8th to 7th in terms of chances of conveying this year is 5.7% (73.7% vs 68%) so it's not significant like it would be if they finished 6th (54%). Also it improves it's chances of conveying at a higher spot. It's not worth fretting over.

[Mugen]

I literally just told you it will convey.

Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.

[objective]

If Toronto gets their pick this year, they'll have a top 6 pick and what right now is Indiana's #15 pick. They've gone 5-5 in their last ten games. Small sample, but I doubt they'll be as bad next year as they were this year. Even if somehow they are, the odds will be about the same: if they end up with the 6th worst record this year (Memphis is better than them), we still have a 54% chance of getting the pick. If they end up the same next year, they'd have to defend the same odds, so .46 x .46.

If they manage to keep the pick even then in 2025, they'll be adding another top 6 pick and likely won't be any worse in 2026. But if they are the same, then it's .46 x .46 x .46 for them to keep the pick from us for three years straight. That is, if they land as the sixth worst record each year. And they're clearly not tearing it down.

Spurs just added the #1 prospect of a generation and are a bottom 5 team and even worse than last year

So I don't think Cody Williams or Alex Sarr or Risacher will be big win generators for Toronto

Scoot and Miller haven't exactly turned things around for their teams either

Houston is better because they spent 60 million in free agency

Detroit is still trash after pick 5, and Orlando is better but not because of anything Anthony Black is doing that's for sure

[Ariel]

Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.
This isn't of those times.

[onechance87]

Spurs just added the #1 prospect of a generation and are a bottom 5 team and even worse than last year

So I don't think Cody Williams or Alex Sarr or Risacher will be big win generators for Toronto

Scoot and Miller haven't exactly turned things around for their teams either

Houston is better because they spent 60 million in free agency

Detroit is still trash after pick 5, and Orlando is better but not because of anything Anthony Black is doing that's for sure

This guy understands.

[objective]

Charlotte is well on its way to never conveying their first round pick for 4 years and that's ONLY lottery protection. 14 spots over 6 ,should be easy.

And there's even been the Play-In tourney to help their chances and they still have sucked enough ass to not convey since 2022 and few would forecast being in the playoffs next year

I'm sure there's there was a Knicks fan post in 2021 with a complicated formula about how it's impossible to not convey with a team of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward etc etc.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.

I literally spelled out to you the situation. It would help if you had a grade school education, but I guess you don't. It's remarkably simple.

[Mr. Body]

Charlotte is well on its way to never conveying their first round pick for 4 years and that's ONLY lottery protection. 14 spots over 6 ,should be easy.

And there's even been the Play-In tourney to help their chances and they still have sucked enough ass to not convey since 2022 and few would forecast being in the playoffs next year

I'm sure there's there was a Knicks fan post in 2021 with a complicated formula about how it's impossible to not convey with a team of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward etc etc.

Charlotte is a basket case of a franchise. LaMelo is really kind of a trash player who doesn't win games and doesn't bother playing most of the time. Their best player is a wife beater. They were so trash Rozier and Hayward just decided to sit out instead of playing, too. A top 6 protection is kinda different than a top 14 protection.

This is... not the same situation. But go piss your drawers if that's fun for you.

[Ariel]

Charlotte is well on its way to never conveying their first round pick for 4 years and that's ONLY lottery protection. 14 spots over 6 ,should be easy.

And there's even been the Play-In tourney to help their chances and they still have sucked enough ass to not convey since 2022 and few would forecast being in the playoffs next year

I'm sure there's there was a Knicks fan post in 2021 with a complicated formula about how it's impossible to not convey with a team of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward etc etc.
I don't think you understand how the lottery works. I put together a small worksheet that breaks down the odds the pick conveys, for every possible pre-lottery slot Toronto ends up with in the next 3 years:

Chances the pick conveys given 1-6 protection, per pre-lottery slot:
https://i.postimg.cc/JnpjP5wn/t.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 5th worst record in '24 (EXTREMELY unlikely):
https://i.postimg.cc/8CDWG0Nc/t5.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 6th worst record in '24 (possible):
https://i.postimg.cc/hPkTyGY9/t6.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 7th worst record in '24 (likely):
https://i.postimg.cc/jdwy4fMx/t7.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 8th worst record in '24 (likely):
https://i.postimg.cc/BZwxFpc7/t8.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 9th worst record in '24 (possible):
https://i.postimg.cc/brMkjYwf/t9.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), given the assumption that it won´t convey in '24 (beware: valid only if (and after) Toronto ends up with a top 6 draft slot in '24):
https://i.postimg.cc/W10rQvRx/t.png

How to read the tables:
First, come up with the scenario you believe most likely for Toronto's record (pre-lottery) in the next 3 years. Say you believe Toronto will end up with:

7th worst record in '24
3th worst record in '25 (hard tank)
5th worst record in '24 (mild tank)

Then you need to look up the percentage contained in the table that reads 7ª in its left uppermost cell (meaning 7th worst record in '24), under the row 3 (meaning 3rd worst record in '25) and column 5 (meaning 5th worst record in '26). That is the likelihood the pick conveys in such a scenario (in the mentioned case, it would be 81%). If you want to consider multiple scenarios, you can weight each cell by the probability you assign to its occurrence (black means impossible, then in a gradient from dark red to dark green meaning least to most likely). A simple way to do this would be to simply average the cells you believe are the most likely outcome, and that will give you a single number representing the chance the pick conveys under your assumptions (every person may end up with a different number according to their own set of assumptions).

So as anyone can see, chances the pick conveys are MUCH, MUCH greater than the chances it doesn't, unless you assume some crazy unrealistic scenario.

[MackAttack003]

:lol
Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.

[onechance87]

lose memphis u fckers

[Robz4000]

F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.

Memphis, the Spurs, and even Charlotte won't be as terrible next year and I could see the Raps absolutely tanking for Flagg.

It'll convey in 2026 at worst imo.

[mystargtr34]

Good stuff Ariel.

I didn’t realise how little the difference was between the Raps finishing 7th worst or 8th worst.

[mystargtr34]

The Barnes injury is obviously not ideal as the Jakob-Barnes-Barrett-Trent-IQ lineup has a net rating of +11 with over 100 minutes played. They don’t have any other lineup that comes close to that level of success

Pre Barnes injury I felt confident the Raps would easily stay ahead of Memphis and possibly even catch the Nets and possibly the Rockets. Now with Barnes out I think there’s no chance the Raps catch any teams ahead of them however I do think they can stay ahead of Memphis in that 7th worst spot. But even that may be tough if Raps decide to shutdown a few guys knowing they have no chance in the play-in or first round without Barnes

[scott]

I don't think you understand how the lottery works. I put together a small worksheet that breaks down the odds the pick conveys, for every possible pre-lottery slot Toronto ends up with in the next 3 years:

Chances the pick conveys given 1-6 protection, per pre-lottery slot:
https://i.postimg.cc/6pL8CkCz/t.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 5th worst record:
https://i.postimg.cc/6QWycM0K/t5.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 6th worst record:
https://i.postimg.cc/VNK5VXGC/t6.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 7th worst record:
https://i.postimg.cc/C1t5FSVM/t7.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 8th worst record:
https://i.postimg.cc/5yC0yTxB/t8.png

Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 9th worst record:
https://i.postimg.cc/j5CC0Cmk/t9.png

So as anyone can see, chances the pick conveys are MUCH, MUCH greater than the chances it doesn't, unless you assume some crazy unrealistic scenario.

This analysis ignores (or maybe doesn't ignore, honestly I'm not following your tables) a key factor, which is (if the pick managed to not convey this year), Toronto has a direct influence on the future odds of it conveying. Finishing 6th this year does not translate finishing 6th in the next two years. The fear that some have is that if the pick doesn't convey this year that perhaps Toronto will go into Hard Tank mode (the same fundamental argument can be made of the CHI pick). Then it becomes less a matter of statistics and more a matter of how good a job the Raptors can do relative to the competition at getting to the bottom.

For the record, I don't fear the pick won't convey until I see evidence that the Raptors would hard tank (which I don't think trading OG or Siakam does, especially in the case of OG who returned useful-now players), but I can understand the fear.

However, I want the pick to convey this year because this is the only year you can count on it conveying near maximum value (given what we currently know). It could very well convey at #17 next year. The pick will have near maximum intrinsic and trade value if it conveys this year. Trying to press your luck for the same result next year is like hitting when you've got 20 in blackjack.

[Ariel]

This analysis ignores a key factor, which is (if the pick managed to not convey this year), Toronto has a direct influence on the future odds of it conveying. Finishing 6th this year does not translate finishing 6th in the next two years. The fear that some have is that if the pick doesn't convey this year that perhaps Toronto will go into Hard Tank mode (the same fundamental argument can be made of the CHI pick). Then it becomes less a matter of statistics and more a matter of how good a job the Raptors can do relative to the competition at getting to the bottom.
That's a complete recap of all possibilities, it doesn't make any assumptions on how the results on each year affect the next. In short, not every scenario in those tables has the same probability of occurring, I laid out all possible combinations so that you can look up the probability of the pick conveying for whatever scenario you deem likely to happen.

To follow your example, you may want to look at the odds of the pick conveying for a small subsection of the table 7 (Toronto finishes 7th), where 1 <= row <= 4 and 1 <= column <= 4 (or whatever you deem reasonable).

[scott]

That's a complete recap of all possibilities, it doesn't make any assumptions on how the results on each year affect the next. In short, not every scenario in those tables has the same probability of occurring, I laid out all possible combinations so that you can look up the probability of the pick conveying for whatever scenario you deem likely to happen.

Yeah, but if you run the tables after the pick DOES NOT convey this year, those tables look a lot different. That is the qualifier that gives people concern (no one is concerned about the pick not conveying if it conveys) which gets downplayed in these tables because the 2024 odds are included in your tables. If we assume that the odds are 50/50 that the pick conveys this year (yes, I realize this is not precise) than there is a 50% chance that the tables are irrelevant (because the pick has conveyed) and a 50% chance those odds are significantly overstated. (I understand your tables now).

[scott]

Basically... I think the question is akin to "what is the probably I land heads on the 2nd and 3rd opportunities after I landed tails on the first" which is different than "what is the probability I land heads over the next 3 tries"

[Ariel]

Yeah, but if you run the tables after the pick DOES NOT convey this year, those tables look a lot different. That is the qualifier that gives people concern which get downplayed in these tables because the 2024 odds are included in your tables. If we assume that the odds are 50/50 that the pick conveys this year (yes, I realize this is not precise) than there is a 50% chance that the tables are irrelevant (because the pick has conveyed) and a 50% chance those odds are significantly overstated. (I understand your tables now).
Those tables don't change, what changes is the subset of those tables that are relevant. To follow your example, lets say that you think Toronto will finish this season with the 7th worst record, and that pick doesn't convey. For starters, the chances of that happening are 32%. Then lets assume Toronto will go into a hard tank where they'll end up with a bottom 2 record twice in a row, which means the pick can no longer convey. Then basically the chances the pick conveys is that it does so in the first year, which is at 68% (100% - 32%). That would be represented by the 3rd table 2nd row 2nd column (7th in '24, 2nd in '25, 2nd in '26). That table reads 68%, which is exactly what I just explained.

If you're trying to get a sense of what are the chances of the pick eventually conveying CONDITIONED ON NOT DOING SO THIS YEAR, then yeah, that chance may be zero if you assume Toronto will hard tank (bottom 2 next 2 years), but that's a different question that assumes things that didn't yet happen and doesn't reflect the situation as it is today. I actually have that table (did it first to derive the others), I'll post it briefly.
https://i.postimg.cc/sx8qTfZW/t0.png

So lets assume the pick doesn't convey in '24. Then you pick the row that you think best reflects Toronto's record in '25, and the column that best reflect Toronto's record in '26, and that is the probability the pick conveys for that scenario. If you assume bottom 2 and then they relax a bit and end up bottom 5, then the probability that the table gives you is 36%, which makes sense because you're assuming 0% in each of the first 2 years and it must convey in the third, and it coincides with the odds Tankathon would give you for a single year for the 5th worst record. I don't know if I'm explaining myself clearly.

[Mr. Body]

Somehow the league had Portland play Memphis away two nights in a row, which makes no sense.

Anyway, Blazers forced overtime and win, keeping the two game margin. Portland does a favor by taking care of two of the bigger possible wins for the Grizz.

[slick'81]

This shits gonna go down to the wire:lol

[onechance87]

hopefully raptors good enough to beat charlotte tommorow.

[Chinook]

I can't believe Portland caught Memphis. That was clutch AF.

Anyway, something that shouldn't be lost is that a lot of teams are going to tank in 2025 and 2026 for the big names at the top of those drafts. Unless the Raptors pull shit like letting Quickley walk or dumping Poeltl, they'd have a hard to getting top-six both of those years. If they do let those guys go, the Spurs have a chance to snap them up, which could be a positive for them.

[mystargtr34]

Portland, Washington and Detroit are front runners for bottom 3 next year imo.

I think the Spurs through Wemby’s second year lift pull themselves out of that bottom group. Likewise Charlotte with Brandon Miller being pretty good and Bridges being back. Lamelo I’m 50-50 on whether he’s a guy that actually contributes to winning basketball games. They’re probably better off trading him for real basketball players and build around Miller.

Chicago could be a dark horse tank team if they decide to unload DeRozan, Vuc, Lavine, Caruso.

Possible Utah if they decide to offload Markannen for a haul of picks.

[scott]

Those tables don't change, what changes is the subset of those tables that are relevant. To follow your example, lets say that you think Toronto will finish this season with the 7th worst record, and that pick doesn't convey. For starters, the chances of that happening are 32%. Then lets assume Toronto will go into a hard tank where they'll end up with a bottom 2 record twice in a row, which means the pick can no longer convey. Then basically the chances the pick conveys is that it does so in the first year, which is at 68% (100% - 32%). That would be represented by the 3rd table 2nd row 2nd column (7th in '24, 2nd in '25, 2nd in '26). That table reads 68%, which is exactly what I just explained.

If you're trying to get a sense of what are the chances of the pick eventually conveying CONDITIONED ON NOT DOING SO THIS YEAR, then yeah, that chance may be zero if you assume Toronto will hard tank (bottom 2 next 2 years), but that's a different question that assumes things that didn't yet happen and doesn't reflect the situation as it is today. I actually have that table (did it first to derive the others), I'll post it briefly.
https://i.postimg.cc/sx8qTfZW/t0.png

So lets assume the pick doesn't convey in '24. Then you pick the row that you think best reflects Toronto's record in '25, and the column that best reflect Toronto's record in '26, and that is the probability the pick conveys for that scenario. If you assume bottom 2 and then they relax a bit and end up bottom 5, then the probability that the table gives you is 36%, which makes sense because you're assuming 0% in each of the first 2 years and it must convey in the third, and it coincides with the odds Tankathon would give you for a single year for the 5th worst record. I don't know if I'm explaining myself clearly.

Yes, this is the entire exercise, as Mugen's statement was:


F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.

He is stating an opinion entirely conditioned on the pick not conveying this year, in which case the real estate on your table in which the odds of the pick not conveying DRASTICALLY increase over the original table you posted to assuage Mugen's fears. My response was essentially that your tables mislead Mugen to not worry about the pick conveying, because they completely ignore the original condition he specified that would cause him to worry.

[scott]

I do think these are very handy tables though, Ariel, not trying to discredit you in anyway... was just pointing out that they didn't directly address Mugen's concern. I think the tables would also be handy references if color coded. Like Red if odds < 45%, yellow if 45% < odds < 55%, green at odds > 55%

[Ariel]

Yes, this is the entire exercise, as Mugen's statement was:

[/COLOR]He is stating an opinion entirely conditioned on the pick not conveying this year, in which case the real estate on your table in which the odds of the pick not conveying DRASTICALLY increase over the original table you posted to assuage Mugen's fears. My response was essentially that your tables mislead Mugen to not worry about the pick conveying, because they completely ignore the original condition he specified that would cause him to worry.
I was trying to represent the most realistic depiction given the situation today. It'd be like someone worrying over the plane they're flying in crashing if it catches fire, I think it makes more sense to worry about the chances that it catches fire and crashes (very small), as opposed to the chances it crashes given it catches fire (almost certain). But if the original concern was whether the pick not conveying now could have a negative effect going forward, yes, I don't think it's quite as dramatic as it's being made out to be, but it's definitely a possibility that I wouldn't feel easy having to face.

[scott]

I was trying to represent the most realistic depiction given the situation today. It'd be like someone worrying over the plane they're flying in crashing if it catches fire, I think it makes more sense to worry about the chances that it catches fire and crashes (very small), as opposed to the chances it crashes given it catches fire (almost certain). But if the original concern was whether the pick not conveying now could have a negative effect going forward, yes, I don't think it's quite as dramatic as it's being made out to be, but it's definitely a possibility that I wouldn't feel easy having to face.

Agreed, and I think that is the right way to feel about it. Feel pretty good about it right now. Will feel a little uneasy if it doesn't convey, until we see some specific moves from TOR to indicate direction. If it doesn't convey and they start shedding assets? Hold on to your butts.

[Ariel]

I do think these are very handy tables though, Ariel (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=3526), not trying to discredit you in anyway... was just pointing out that they didn't directly address Mugen's concern. I think the tables would also be handy references if color coded. Like Red if odds < 45%, yellow if 45% < odds < 55%, green at odds > 55%
No problem, I didn't take it that way at all. I thought about the color scheme, but I was actually kind of lazy, though it was more trouble generating the picks and uploading them, than putting together the table itself.

[Mr. Body]

IMO the only sign/way Toronto starts really rebuilding/tanking is if they fire Masai. Nothing has indicated any change of direction on this low-key rebuild. The fact that they specifically landed Indiana's draft pick this year for Siakam suggests they want/expect to lose their own draft pick this year rather than wait. People get mistaken about the rebuild because they saw them trade Anunoby and Siakam, when in fact those players were looking to make huge bank this summer. The team wanted/had to move on. None of the players they got in exchange suggest a hard rebuild or tear-down. They have a bright young talent in Barnes.

[JPB]

Spurs just added the #1 prospect of a generation and are a bottom 5 team and even worse than last year

So I don't think Cody Williams or Alex Sarr or Risacher will be big win generators for Toronto

Scoot and Miller haven't exactly turned things around for their teams either

Houston is better because they spent 60 million in free agency

Detroit is still trash after pick 5, and Orlando is better but not because of anything Anthony Black is doing that's for sure

Very good point and that's the way the NBA is going. Besides the Wembys or Chets of the wolrd, buidling a competitive team through the draft is extremely uncertain, unless you luck into a Maxey, and probably won't happen. It's all about trades and FAs nowadays to get proven over potential talent. Spurs good, old golden standard is not viable anymore. Like it or no, the NBA is moving faster (like society) and taking the long, patient road to develop your picks is extremely risky if not suicidal nowadays.

This is a more aggressive NBA, you could preach patience and wisdom all you want, at the end of the day you might find yourself looking from the outside out... This is like old, school businesses 20 years ago who were reluctant in not refractory to take the online road, because a business should be in the real word... Now you don't exist if you're not online. It's also a generational issue that I hope, RC and Pop understand, not believing they're smarter than the mass and can bend the NBA to their own philosophical paradigm because that's no gonna happe, just like older people can't keep societies to change their standards. You adapt or you die... this is a Darwinian kind of situation spurs find themselves in .

[Mr. Body]

The reason why the Spurs are so poor is not because of the draft, but because every single player that gets any playing time is under 23 years old and most of them under 20 and barely have any experience. They have little notion of how to win certain aspects of the game, they're getting so much wrong and the whole team is having to learn together.

When you have strong vets, this is completely different. Instead of five guys making mistakes you may have one, and the others can cover for that player in that situation.

When you have five mistake makers on the floor at all times, it's incredibly hard to get it all worked out. Add to the mix sort of pausing everything to figure one titanic player out, and the fact that the roster is missing parts anyway.

Last year at this time the guys balling out were Sandro and Julian, both of whom have fallen completely off.

The team might do well to pick up strong vets in FA but it's unlikely to happen. A trade or two might happen. But ultimately the improvement will and has to largely come internally and by building collective and individual knowledge.

[LeBowen]

Don't you get tired of constantly spewing nonsense and getting called out for it?


because every single player that gets any playing time is under 23 years old

Wrong.
Our two worst players this season (considering the expectations and their salaries) have been Keldon and Collins.
Keldon is in his fifth and Collins is in his seventh season.
The biggest issue with both of them is that their basketball IQ is approaching absolute zero on both ends of the floor.

If they performed on the level we expected of them, Spurs would easily have at least 5 more wins, if not 10.

Then the rest of your post is more or less the same nonsense.

It doesn't matter how inexperienced Branham and Wesley are when it's obvious they're not NBA-level players.

[JPB]

Don't you get tired of constantly spewing nonsense and getting called out for it?



Wrong.
Our two worst players this season (considering the expectations and their salaries) have been Keldon and Collins.
Keldon is in his fifth and Collins is in his seventh season.
The biggest issue with both of them is that their basketball IQ is approaching absolute zero on both ends of the floor.

If they performed on the level we expected of them, Spurs would easily have at least 5 more wins, if not 10.

Then the rest of your post is more or less the same nonsense.

It doesn't matter how inexperienced Branham and Wesley are when it's obvious they're not NBA-level players.

I remember posting their age like 2 days ago to question the notion some seem to have we would be talking about kids from College...

I mean none of Keldon, Devin, Tre or Collins are under 23... Keldon will be 25 this year, Tre is 24, Devin 24 soon and Zach is 26. And Wemby is Wemby so he's out of this discussion...Even Champagnie will be 23 in a few months...

that leaves us with Sochan + Barlowe/Branham/Wesley who are indeed 3rd string NBA players.

[scott]

The reason why the Spurs are so poor is not because of the draft, but because every single player that gets any playing time is under 23 years old and most of them under 20 and barely have any experience. They have little notion of how to win certain aspects of the game, they're getting so much wrong and the whole team is having to learn together.

When you have strong vets, this is completely different. Instead of five guys making mistakes you may have one, and the others can cover for that player in that situation.

When you have five mistake makers on the floor at all times, it's incredibly hard to get it all worked out. Add to the mix sort of pausing everything to figure one titanic player out, and the fact that the roster is missing parts anyway.

Last year at this time the guys balling out were Sandro and Julian, both of whom have fallen completely off.

The team might do well to pick up strong vets in FA but it's unlikely to happen. A trade or two might happen. But ultimately the improvement will and has to largely come internally and by building collective and individual knowledge.

I largely agree with this, but it also highlights what what happens when you do this: you get stuck in a trap where these 5 guys never learn how to pull themselves out of that zone of cluelessness, because there is no one to show them how and give them experience.

Throwing 5 inexperienced kids on the court is more likely to result in a high % of them being career losers (and maybe the one alpha who figures out how to rise above) than it is creating a core of 5 who learned how to win together.

[Mr. Body]

Jesus fucking Christ are you a bunch of pointless nerds. Okay, some of the players are 25. :lol

Keldon and Collins are probably not longterm pieces, but anyway way to miss the utter fucking point. The team is incredibly young and has very little playing time. More to the point, very little winning playing time. And the most likely way to learn how to win is working slowly at it. Like Orlando is doing and OKC has done.. There are no quick fixes. And we've seen over and over trying for quick fixes kills the seed corn and you regret it in a few years.

Fucking nerds. :lol

[Splits]

:lmao raging

[NASpurs]

Jesus fucking Christ are you a bunch of pointless nerds. Okay, some of the players are 25. :lol

Keldon and Collins are probably not longterm pieces, but anyway way to miss the utter fucking point. The team is incredibly young and has very little playing time. More to the point, very little winning playing time. And the most likely way to learn how to win is working slowly at it. Like Orlando is doing and OKC has done.. There are no quick fixes. And we've seen over and over trying for quick fixes kills the seed corn and you regret it in a few years.

Fucking nerds. :lol

Take a deep breath bitch, you take this shit too seriously.

[Mr. Body]

Take a deep breath bitch, you take this shit too seriously.

It's like dealing with kindergartners with poopy pants. You can't get their attention just to get them into the bathroom and they're smearing that shit everywhere. Just a clown show with a lot of people here, including you.

[Mr. Body]

Anyway, in the land of adults, Toronto hosts Charlotte today, a decent W opportunity.

[rascal]

It's like dealing with kindergartners with poopy pants. You can't get their attention just to get them into the bathroom and they're smearing that shit everywhere. Just a clown show with a lot of people here, including you.

Stop it

Why do you have an attitude that your opinion is the only one that is correct.

[NASpurs]

It's like dealing with kindergartners with poopy pants. You can't get their attention just to get them into the bathroom and they're smearing that shit everywhere. Just a clown show with a lot of people here, including you.

No one has a bigger swing and a miss record in their shitty amateur analysis than you. You're a fucking faggot through and through.

[mudyez]

Will be fun, when they just jump into the top4, renderin all this hoping for wins/losses dull.
This thread might reach historical page counts.

[spurraider21]

Raptors choked a big lead away and big dick Bertans actually put hornets up 1 late

quickly has now hit 4 FTs to put raptors back up 3 with about 30 to go

[SpursFan86]

Looks like Toronto will escape with the win

[Splits]

hilarious how many so people believe in "tanking". if any team should tank, it would be the Raps. Yet nigs hit 7/8 FTs in the last minute to win the game. garbage thinking

[td4mvp2k]

hilarious how many so people believe in "tanking". if any team should tank, it would be the Raps. Yet nigs hit 7/8 FTs in the last minute to win the game. garbage thinking
yeah i'm surprised masai is ok with that

[onechance87]

good news...raptors win.....bad news poeltl got injured

[Mr. Body]

hilarious how many so people believe in "tanking". if any team should tank, it would be the Raps. Yet nigs hit 7/8 FTs in the last minute to win the game. garbage thinking

Because they want to give up the pick this year and not worry about it again. Thank God you're not in any position of authority in life. :lol

[Knoxxx]

Because they want to give up the pick this year and not worry about it again. Thank God you're not in any position of authority in life. :lol

Hey ass hat I’ll accept ur apology now…

[Splits]

Because they want to give up the pick this year and not worry about it again. Thank God you're not in any position of authority in life. :lol

garbage thinking

[spurraider21]

hilarious how many so people believe in "tanking". if any team should tank, it would be the Raps. Yet nigs hit 7/8 FTs in the last minute to win the game. garbage thinking
Players don’t tank. They’re playing for contracts. Front offices tank

[venitian navigator]

Jesus fucking Christ are you a bunch of pointless nerds. Okay, some of the players are 25. :lol

Keldon and Collins are probably not longterm pieces, but anyway way to miss the utter fucking point. The team is incredibly young and has very little playing time. More to the point, very little winning playing time. And the most likely way to learn how to win is working slowly at it. Like Orlando is doing and OKC has done.. There are no quick fixes. And we've seen over and over trying for quick fixes kills the seed corn and you regret it in a few years.

Fucking nerds. :lol

totally agree!!!

[JPB]

Stop it

Why do you have an attitude that your opinion is the only one that is correct.

That's his schtick and basically all the guy does now here, post after post, to a grotesque extend... Calling out and insulting everybody and anybody, the "fanbase" "ST", the world, in every single thread, who don't get it ("go all shoot yourself", "nerds", "kindergartners with poopy pant...) vs. him the smart ass of the board who keeps posting nonsense after nonsense... Then talking about attention seeking on top of that, while you can see he's craving for self validation and glorification...He's certainly entering ignore territory for many people here I'm sure.

So annoying.

[Mr. Body]

I get annoyed when so many people repeat the same crap about how our players are awful that everything sucks that Branham, say, is a piece of shit and needs to be traded immediately and Collins needs to be shot in the head.

I also get annoyed when some idiot uses words like nig.

It seems very clear that Toronto operates in certain ways. They talk about what they're doing all the time.

This fanbase is much too stupid, petulant, and frankly just doesn't deserve what this franchise has done. That's not being a sniffer. There's enough to criticize.

But if you're put off by someone getting incensed bu brain dead group think of the worst kind, I don't know what to tell you. Because there's a shit load of it and it deserves to be attacked.

[Mr. Body]

hilarious how many so people believe in "tanking". if any team should tank, it would be the Raps. Yet nigs hit 7/8 FTs in the last minute to win the game. garbage thinking

How does the racism of this not deserve ridicule?

Even aside from just not even trying to understand what their strategy is?

C'mon, just let me know why this doesn't deserve being treated like an asshole or a child.